754
FXUS61 KBTV 241829
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
229 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 228 PM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 228 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Showers return for late tomorrow into Friday
2. While heat and humidity will gradually build early next
week, significant heat is not expected during this period. Isolated
or scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day into
mid week, especially on Sunday and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 228 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: After a mostly dry mid-week, another area of low
pressure will track into the region from the west Thursday night. It
looks to be weaker than the event earlier in the week, with the
pressure only dropping to around 1010 MB as it passes through. A
weak warm front will pass through late Thursday into Thursday night,
bringing the first round of showers. There will be enough synoptic
ascent to try to cause a brief round of stratiform precip. Behind
it, it should end with a few areas of weak elevated convection. A
break looks to occur Friday morning after the warm front passes
east, especially over southern areas, before a broken line of
showers tries to form in the afternoon. Through Friday,
GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined ensemble probabilities of receiving more than
0.5 inches are between 50-75 percent and probabilities of receiving
more than an inch are less than 25 percent. On Friday afternoon,
around 500-1000 J of CAPE looks to form and 0-6 KM shear looks to be
around 30-35 KT, so a few strong storms will be possible. However,
increasing dry air aloft and relatively weak synoptic dynamics will
help minimize the threat. Adequate storm movement and the break
between the warm front and the convection will minimize the flood
threat.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures will steadily warm towards mid next week,
though not too particularly hot as we head into July. Ensemble
height fields denote moderate surface ridging centered in the Ohio
Valley building in by Monday. The best chance for a fully dry day
next week looks to be Monday as the ridge axis extends north along
the St. Lawrence Valley allowing for the best chance for sunny
skies. Temperatures will peak towards the upper 80s to near 90 by
Tuesday/Wednesday as the ridge axis peaks near the region. Most
guidance continues to show that reaching 90 may be difficult as
ensembles depict some troughing from the east edging towards Vermont
and northern New York. Some ridge rollers along the periphery of the
Ohio Valley ridge may lead to some increased cloud cover and
afternoon precipitation chances. Dewpoints will also increase
towards the mid to upper 60s for Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon. While
temperature and dewpoints will be increasing towards mid next week,
the maximum extent of the any heat risk remain uncertain. There will
be slight to moderate risk likely at least, though any more
significant heat risk leans more unlikely given the presence of
troughing east of the region across Maine and the Canadian
Maritimes. As we near the 4th of July, changes to the position of
the ridge axis will play a large role in our weather for any holiday
festivities.
With the increasing temperatures and moisture, instability will
subsequently increase by mid week with daily shower and thunderstorm
chances each day. The latest model blend probabilities show around
10-20% chance for thunder Sunday and Monday, with slightly higher
amounts to 20-30% Tuesday and Wednesday. While there is still a
potential for some stronger storms Tuesday with CAPE around
1000J/kg, recent model trends have backed off slightly on the amount
of instability present. Owing likely to increased CIN from a
combination of convective debris and uncertainty in the placement of
the eastern troughing. There is still quite a spread for any
convective potential into next week though some chances for some
diurnally driven shower chances look increasingly possible with the
increased temperatures and dewpoints. As of right now, statistical
guidance from the NAEFS and EFI do not show any noteworthy unusual
weather from a temperature or precipitation standpoint.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Terminals will remain VFR at least through 06Z
tonight, with some isolated IFR FG potential. Conditions through
this afternoon into this evening will feature breezy west to
northwest gusts around 15 to 20 knots, with prevailing winds around
10 knots. Winds will weaken with the loss of daylight tonight.
Ceilings should remain between 5000 to 8000 ft agl. A stray shower
may pass near EFK between 18-21Z, but any shower activity should not
be strong enough to see terminal impacts. GLAMP guidance shows a
slight chance to chance for MVFR or below visibilities at
MPV/EFK/SLK tonight after 06Z, but increasing cloud cover from the
west and some continued light flow aloft across eastern Vermont
should be enough to limit any fog potential. Have left any mention
of fog out of this TAF package with the expectation that surface FG
will not be able to develop at any particular terminal with the
increasing clouds and detachment for previous rains. Tomorrow
morning will see winds turn southerly by sunrise, with shower
chances beginning to increase by the end of this TAF period.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
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