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  Thursday June 20, 2024

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion



940
FXUS61 KBTV 202036
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
436 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this
evening, potentially featuring hail, frequent lightning, downpours,
and gusty to damaging winds. Our hot streak will come to an end with
temperatures returning to seasonable levels to end out the week.
Additional thunderstorm chances are expected over the weekend with
the best chances occurring Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 PM EDT Thursday...
**Severe Thunderstorm Watch in Effect Through 8 PM**

High pressure located in the Atlantic Ocean continues to draw warm,
moist air into the forecast area from the west/southwest this
afternoon and evening, and mid level westerly winds will be
strongest across the international border where deep layer shear is
most significant. A cold frontal boundary will be dropping through
this evening from north to south, continuing to trigger showers and
thunderstorms as well as putting an end to our three day heat wave.
As the front clashes with our warm, humid air mass in place, this
will be the focus of convection this evening. Deep layer shear as a
whole is meager, but precipitable water values are impressive, up to
around 2 inches in some spots. Modeled MLCAPE values are 2000-3000
J/kg. The main concern with these storms will be damaging wind gusts
and hail, which has already been reported across portions of the
forecast area this afternoon. In addition to severe concerns, we are
also monitoring the thunderstorms for heavy rain over the same area,
as this could result in isolated flash flooding. The storms are
expected to be slow moving along the stalling front, which would
allow a heavy storm to drop an impressive amount of rain in one spot
before moving on under high pwat conditions. Expected rainfall
amounts will vary depending on where thunderstorms occur, but
generally thinking 0.20-1.00". Thunderstorm threat should end around
8 PM this evening as we lose daytime heating and instability.

Low temperatures will fall into the 60s for most tonight, which will
be much cooler than it has been the last few nights, but still a
good 5-10 degrees above average. Thick moisture at the surface will
result in patchy fog in the classic valley locations and those that
received plenty of rain from the showers and storms today. Tomorrow
will be cooler than today, returning our highs back to around
seasonable levels in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return tomorrow, mainly for the
southern half of the forecast area along the frontal boundary.
Severe weather is not anticipated tomorrow. Rainfall amounts should
be up to a half an inch. Tomorrow night, this frontal boundary will
be stalled out just to our south, which again will be where most
showers set up. Lows will fall even farther tomorrow night into the
mid 50s to mid 60s, still about 5 degrees above climatological
normals. Once again, there is the potential for some fog with the
stationary boundary and low level moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 PM EDT Thursday...Active weather with showers and
thunderstorms continues on Saturday, with potential impacts more
towards excessive rainfall than strong thunderstorms with limited
instability. Temperatures have trended a bit cooler for
Saturday associated with northerly low level flow, clouds, and
showers. Highs may be only in the upper 60s to low 70s in much
of northern New York and Vermont. However, south of a surface
front a chance of thunderstorms is indicated. In this region,
which may include much of south central Vermont into portions of
the Adirondacks, daytime heating and moist boundary layer air
would support tall skinny CAPE that could result some showers
that can produce frequent lightning along with torrential rain.
However, even showers on the cool side of the front will be
capable of torrential rain with high precipitable water, deep
cloud layer depths in a very moist air mass. Given suddenly
wetter antecedent conditions, potential for flash flooding may
be elevated. The orientation of the front, largely draped west
to east, will likely act as a focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms back across the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night
while the front bulges northward in our region. As such,
despite relatively cool air on Saturday, it may not cool off
much overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 410 PM EDT Thursday...Sunday is set up to be potentially a
significant severe weather day as a strong cold front
approaches from the west. Most model guidance brings upper
level support through our region during the afternoon hours
coincident with an unseasonably strong surface low lifting
through the St. Lawrence Valley, putting our region in the
system`s warm sector. Amongst the global model clusters, three
of the four scenarios for Sunday produce ingredients for severe
weather Sunday afternoon, which would include organized
thunderstorms given the deep layer shear and moderately high
CAPE expected. The one scenario that does not suggest an active
day, driven by many GEFS members, shows very little instability
due to a lot more ongoing showers. Mid level flow looks to be
southwesterly near 40 knots at 700 millibars, with increases in
upper level winds coinciding with peak heating as heights fall.

After this cold front crosses the region, humidity should trend
downward to more comfortable conditions on Monday. The next
opportunity for severe weather then may follow for Wednesday as
another strong cold front may pass through the region. Below
normal temperatures finally may arrive for Thursday following
that frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Showers and thunderstorms are popping up
around the region currently and will continue through at least
00Z. Any storms will have the potential to produce strong/gusty
outflow winds up to 60 mph, small hail, frequent cloud to
ground lightning and MVFR vis in heavier rain. Another round of
potential fog after 06z Friday, especially in areas that see
rain. Have gone with IFR conditions at at KMPV/KSLK, with some
MVFR mentions at other stations. All stations should return to
VFR after 13Z on Friday.


Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Our radar KCXX is currently down. Time of return is unknown at
the moment.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001>011-
     016>021.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Hastings/Verasamy
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV



 
 
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