FXUS61 KBTV 080809
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
309 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2022
Outside of a few pockets of freezing drizzle at higher elevations
this morning, precipitation chances are rapidly dwindling across the
region as high pressure situates overhead. A return of seasonal
temperatures is expected through the weekend into early next week
with the next round of rain and snow not expected until late Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 308 AM EST Thursday...Scattered pockets of drizzle and freezing
drizzle will remain possible through the early morning hours as we
continue to see a deep area of saturation below a subsidence
inversion. The lack of moisture within the dendritic growth layer
will prevent the formation of light snow with areas unfortunate to
be below freezing this morning to possibly see freezing drizzle.
Luckily, road surfaces overall are above freezing so any ice
accretion will occur only across elevated surfaces and bridges.
Still, some slippery travel cannot be ruled out for the morning
commute. Moisture will ever so slowly dissipate underneath the
subsidence inversion but mostly cloudy skies are in the forecast
through much of the day as Froude numbers will only become
increasingly blocked throughout the day. Eventually the moisture
will scour out and leave us with mostly clear skies across the
region by midnight. Given light winds and clearing skies, we should
see some decent radiational cooling which will yield overnight lows
right around or just below climatological normals. Friday is shaping
up to be a great day across the North Country with clear skies
prevailing throughout the day. It will, however, be a bit cooler
with highs only climbing into the 30s.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 308 AM EST Thursday...Dry weather is expected for the first
half of the weekend as high pressure centered to our north slowly
migrates eastward. Friday night will feature clear skies and
north/northeast winds of 5-10 mph as we remain mixed overnight. Note
that MOS guidance is going quite cold (single digits), but feel this
is overdone given lack of snow cover and the aforementioned winds.
Low temperatures in the mid teen to lower 20s seem more reasonable.
Saturday should be a cool though pleasant December day as we`ll
start out with abundant sunshine, though clouds will start to
increase late in the day. Highs will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s,
which is a few degrees cooler than normal for mid December. While
it`ll remain dry, cloud cover will continue to increase Saturday
night, limiting radiational cooling potential. Therefore, lows
should remain in the the upper teens to mid 20s, a little warmer
than the previous night.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 308 AM EST Thursday...The second half of the weekend isn`t
looking quite as nice as Saturday as an upper shortwave will bring
the chance of snow/rain showers to the region. The question
continues to be how far north/east the precipitation will spread, as
upper latitude blocking will shunt this system southeast toward the
NJ coast. The moisture gradient will be quite tight with a very dry
airmass positioned across eastern New England. Model consensus keeps
the bulk of the precipitation to our south and west, with areas
along and west of a line from roughly Massena, NY to Springfield, VT
line having the best chances of seeing precipitation. Although
temperatures will warm into the mid 30s, expect at least some wet
bulbing to occur once precipitation is able to overcome the dry air.
Therefore, precipitation should fall mainly as snow. Regardless, the
system quickly pulls away to our east with low pressure developing
strengthening off the New England coast and lifting to the north and
east. High pressure and dry weather resumes thereafter, as we remain
squeezed between low pressure deepening well south/east of Nova
Scotia and a trough trying to progress eastward across the central
CONUS. Plenty of uncertainty given the blocked pattern and the lead
time, but for now it looks like our next chance for widespread
precipitation doesn`t arrive until later next week. Stay tuned.
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Plenty of moisture remains trapped below a
subsidence inversion this morning yielding widespread low MVFR
to LIFR conditions across the region. With blocked flow being
observed across the Champlain Valley, it`ll take some time to
scout out the moisture with IFR conditions expected through 12Z
before a gradual improvement is expected thereafter. Elsewhere,
a similar improving trend is expected but will likely occur
slightly faster. Winds initially will start off light from the
north/northwest but will become increasingly gusty throughout
the day as colder air filters into the region with a deeper
mixing. Winds will lose their gusty factor around 22Z but will
remain at 5 to 10 knots from the NNW through the overnight
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
The KCXX radar will be down through approximately December 12
for a scheduled pedestal replacement on site. This a critical
repair to ensure the operational longevity of the equipment.