034
FXUS61 KBTV 282249
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
549 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A powerful low pressure system tracking to our west will bring a
period of freezing rain tonight into tomorrow, eventually
transitioning into plain rain. Later tomorrow, a cold front will
drop temperatures back below freezing with a few snow showers.
Heading through the week, our weather will remain wintry with cold
temperatures many chances for snow showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 543 PM EST Sunday...Quick update to upgrade parts of the
cwa to ice storm warning for the expected ice accumulation of
0.50 to 0.75 inches. Greatest probability of exceeding ice
accumulation >0.50 is across the SLV and parts of
central/eastern and northern VT, where axis of qpf on latest CAM
models has increased. Latest 18z and 20z HRRR, along with the
18z Regional GEM and 18z GFS have all increased qpf associated
with a pocket of elevated instability on Monday morning along
sfc warm boundary, resulting in more ice accumulation. In
addition, the gusty west to southwest winds on backside,
especially parts of the SLV and downslope portions of the
eastern Greens could produce additional power outages on Monday
night into Tuesday. Travel will be extremely difficult late this
evening and especially during the Monday morning commute.
Previous discussion below:
A quickly deepening low pressure system will move northeast into the
Great lakes region and occlude tonight into Monday. A secondary low
will begin to develop just south of the region and become the
primary low as it moves up into Atlantic Canada. With cold
temperatures at the onset from the lingering effects of the polar
high, the precipitation with the initial warm front will fall as
freezing rain for most places tonight. A substantial warm nose will
prevent snow on the front end. With the NBM and other guidance
consistently keeping temperatures too warm during the day and
overnight during the current airmass has, confidence is high that
the precipitation will start as freezing rain almost everywhere.
As warm air advection continues through Monday morning, temperatures
at the surface will gradually warm above freezing. This will likely
start in parts of the northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley,
before eventually reaching the St. Lawrence Valley and protected
hollows east of the Green Mountains last. Overall, ice accumulations
look to be in the 0.2-0.5 inch range for most places, with a bit
less in the Champlain Valley and parts of the northern Adirondacks.
The most favored areas could see slightly over 0.5 inches.
Some model uncertainty remains with QPF and temperatures, and most
of it is related to the development of the aforementioned secondary
low. A quicker development, as long as it continues to be favored
south of the region, will significantly cut down on the warm air
advection and southerly surface winds, something like the HRRR and
RRFS currently show. This would lead to freezing rain hanging on
into the afternoon in many areas. With the NBM on the warmer side of
the solutions and its tendency to struggle in freezing rain events,
I blended in some temperatures from colder guidance, dropping
temperatures east of the Greens and in the St. Lawrence Valley a
bit. This generally puts the forecast in between the higher and
lower guidance, but the overall gap is not too large and there is
decent confidence with the overall idea of the forecast.
Temperatures should rise into the mid 30s to mid 40s briefly in the
afternoon for most places. The current thinking is that everywhere
should see a couple hours above freezing, though whether it is
enough to melt all the ice accreted to trees and powerlines is in
question, especially in the St. Lawrence Valley and areas east of
the Greens where the cold air is entrenched the longest.
Temperatures may not rise above freezing in parts of these places
until the immediately after the cold front moves through in the
afternoon and mixes the atmosphere. Cold air advection will be quite
strong behind the front and everywhere should see temperatures
falling below freezing by late Monday evening. Gusts will generally
be in the 25-40 mph range, though locally higher winds are expected
in the St. Lawrence Valley and far northern Adirondacks. This could
present problems if the colder guidance verifies and temperatures in
the coldest areas do not rise above freezing and ice remains on the
powerlines and trees.
As the cold front moves through Monday afternoon and evening, a few
heavy convective snow showers are possible. There will be a few with
the initial cold front and another broken line looks to form over
St. Lawrence County in the afternoon with lake enhancement. A quick
coating is possible from these. WHile a flash freeze is not
expected, quickly dropping temperatures in the afternoon and evening
will cause untreated areas to quickly freeze.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 127 PM EST Sunday...Continued upslope snow showers will occur
Monday night through Tuesday night from wrap around moisture.
Westerly to northwesterly flow will keep most of the moisture from
the Great Lakes to the south. Flow looks to be very unblocked during
this time, so the highest amounts should fall along and east of the
summits. Mostly westerly flow will favor the far northern Greens for
seeing the most snow, particularly around Jay Peak. Strong winds and
cold temperatures should cause wind chills to range between 0 and
-15 Tuesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 127 PM EST Sunday...A wintry weather pattern is expected
throughout much of next week, with cool temperatures and chances for
snow showers. A system moving across the region Wednesday into
Thursday may bring some widespread light snowfall to the region,
with the potential for some heavier snow showers and possible
squalls along the boundary Wednesday night, although the details
with this system need to be fine-tuned. Otherwise, cyclonic flow
aloft will continue to bring chances for snow showers, especially
across the higher terrain and portions of northern New York due to
Lake Ontario. Temperatures throughout this time period will be on
the cool side, with highs in the teens and low 20s and overnight
lows generally in the single digits above and below zero.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Surface high pres gradually sliding east of our
region allowing high clouds increase across our region but don`t
lower significantly until precipitation arrives after 02Z from
southwest to northeast. Freezing rain moves in after 02Z through 06z
Monday morning. LLWS will also begin late in this period as well at
2000ft from the southwest at 35-40 knots. KMSS will see winds from
NE at 6-10 kts this afternoon and through the overnight hours.
Elsewhere SSE winds of 5-10 knots are expected this afternoon,
becoming light and variable overnight. FZRA will likely be changing
to -RA around 08Z at BTV, and after 12Z Monday morning across the
rest of the region. Gusty winds will pick up in the late morning out
of the south-southeast at all terminals at 10 - 15 knots with gusts
up to 25 knots. KMSS will see stronger winds out of the southwest
with gusts up to 35 knots at the end of the TAF period.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Windy
with gusts to 30 kt. Likely SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
New Years Day: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Ice Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Monday for VTZ004-006>008-010-
020-021.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for VTZ001>003-
005-009-011-016>019.
NY...Ice Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Monday for NYZ026-027-034-087.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for NYZ026-087.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for NYZ028>031-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Taber
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Verasamy
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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