128
FXUS61 KBTV 220625
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
225 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday...
Have slightly increased wind gusts today with this forecast given
efficient mixing of gusts 20-30 knots likely throughout the day
today. Have also added patchy valley fog to the favorable locations
tonight (Wednesday night) due to high pressure arriving to the
region and creating favorable radiational cooling conditions over
the next few days. Because of this, have also decreased lows both
Thursday and Friday nights.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. Lingering showers are expected today with isolated
thunderstorms possible as a cold front moves through, then the
weather pattern becomes drier for the latter half of the week.
2. Quiet weather and increasing temperatures are expected this
upcoming weekend before another system bring showers and
thunderstorms to the region early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A warm front is crossing northern New York and Vermont
early this morning, bringing a few additional showers to the area.
So far about 0.50-1.00 inches of rainfall has fallen in a swath from
the St. Lawrence River to the northern Adirondacks and northern Lake
Champlain. A cold front is expected to cross the region this
morning, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms. Probability
of precipitation in a given location is around 50-80% in the western
Adirondacks, St. Lawrence Valley, and far northern Vermont.
Probability of precipitation is lowest in the souther Champlain and
Connecticut River valleys, around 5-30%. Additional anticipated
rainfall amounts range around 0.10-0.30 inches through the end of
today, though higher precip amounts and gusty winds could occur in
any thunderstorms. Outside of storms, southwesterly winds are also
anticipated throughout the day today with gusts as high as 20-30
knots likely. The cold front should keep temperatures from reaching
too high today, particularly in northern New York, where highs will
be in the 60s west of the Champlain Valley. In the Champlain Valley
and remainder of Vermont, temperatures are forecast in the mid and
upper 70s, warmest in the Connecticut River Valley where the cold
front will visit last. Depending on the speed of the cold front,
temperatures could end up being a degree or two warmer or colder.
Wednesday night through Friday night will be dry with high pressure
in control. Humidity levels will be comfortable with highs in the
70s to lower 80s Thursday and upper 70s to mid 80s Friday. Lows will
fall into the 40s and 50s each night, with radiational fog potential
in the typical valley locations.
KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure starts to shift to the east by the second
half of the weekend, leading to increasing S/SW flow. The result
will be warming temperatures, with highs to be mainly in the
mid/upper 80s both Saturday and Sunday. Humidity doesn`t look too
bad as dewpoints are expected to remain the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Our next chance of precipitation arrives late Sunday into Monday and
likely persists into mid week as upper troughiness sets up across
eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS. Shortwaves rotating
around the upper trough will bring periods of showers and
thunderstorms. These sorts of features are typically difficult to
nail down in timing and strength this far out, and indeed, model
solutions differ quite a bit from Sunday night onward. Have stayed
with the NBM/WPC forecast for now given the uncertainty, which
results in chances of showers/thunderstorms each day. Temperatures
look to remain seasonable through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Variable conditions expected through at least
the first 6-12 hours of the TAF period. Scattered shower activity
will continue through 09z, then exit to the east. MVFR
ceilings/vsbys possible in any precipitation, though ceilings may
drop to IFR at KMPV/KSLK. Abundant moisture will keep ceilings
MVFR/IFR after the rain exits, with IFR conditions most likely at
KSLK/KMPV. Any fog development is expected to be brief due to
continued S/SW winds around 5-10 kt overnight. Ceilings start to
improve after 15z, but additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms will keep the threat of reduced visibility and
ceilings through 00z Thu. Coverage/timing is not enough to include
any mention of showers/thunderstorms in the TAFs at this point. S/SW
winds will trend more toward W/SW and become gusty after 14z, with
gusts of 16-22 kt expected.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Storm
AVIATION...Hastings
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