171
FXUS61 KBTV 060017
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
817 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 216 PM EDT Monday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 216 PM EDT Monday...
1. Breezes continue through the night into Tuesday with dry air
moving into the region. Areas of frost are expected mainly
outside the Champlain Valley Tuesday night.
2. Seasonable temperatures and periodic chances of light rain
showers are expected for the latter half of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 216 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered showers will continue
behind the front this afternoon into the evening. Once the sun
sets, shower chances decrease with drier air working into the
region. Through the night into Tuesday, northwesterly breezes
will continue and slowly decrease. As such, the Lake Wind
Advisory will continue into the evening hours. Gusts 20-30 mph
can be expected in the Champlain Valley, especially for
locations adjacent to Lake Champlain, into early Tuesday before
slowly decreasing. Dry air aloft is evident in soundings and
will lower to the surface as temperatures warm into the 50s
resulting in lower than usual RH for these temperatures. The
gradient weakens further Tuesday night with weak ridging
cresting. This will support areas of frost, especially outside
the Champlain Valley, as temperatures drop into the low/mid 30s
for most valleys, except 20s to low 30s in the Adirondacks and
northeastern Vermont.
The next wave approaches Wednesday with winds increasing again
and turning out of the south. The primary wave will be displaced
towards the James Bay, so best chances of showers will remain
nearer to the Canadian border. Models favor stalling the parent
low resulting in continued chances into Thursday as subsequent
waves pinwheel around the low. Current guidance points to
temperatures warming into the mid 60s Thursday supporting some
isolated thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon. Still, no
large amounts of rain are expected with totals generally staying
less then 0.25".
KEY MESSAGE 2: Heading towards the end of the week, seasonably
cool conditions and periodic showers are expected. Daytime high
temperatures will climb into the 50s to low 60s, with overnight
lows in the 30s to mid 40s. An upper low to our north will allow
for periods of showers throughout this week, especially across
the higher terrain and locations further north towards the
border. Although there will be several chances for showers,
drier conditions look to return towards the weekend as ridging
builds back into the region, although trends will need to be
monitored as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions currently prevail across
the region, with a few scattered showers moving through this
evening. Some MVFR ceilings may be possible overnight at KSLK
and KEFK. Main concern for aviators during the forecast period
will be the breezy westerly winds. Winds this evening will
continue to be between 10-17 knots sustained with gusts 20 to 30
knots through about 03Z. A brief lull in winds will be possible
overnight, although several terminals may have gusts continue
into the overnight. Winds will become more northwesterly for
Tuesday, still remaining on the breezier side. Some pockets of
LLWS will be possible tonight.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer
AVIATION...Neiles
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