436
FXUS61 KBTV 201749
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1249 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and quiet conditions will continue today as the region remains
under high pressure. Chances for light precipitation arrive tomorrow
as a cold front pushes eastward, bringing primarily rain. Seasonably
cool late November conditions will resume for the rest of the
weekend, followed by another quick moving system on Monday and a
more widespread precipitation event likely beginning Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1248 PM EST Thursday...High pressure across the region will
continue to bring cool and quiet weather conditions through much of
the afternoon into the evening. Stratus and cloud cover from this
morning will gradually improve through the afternoon with some blue
skies making an appearance. Cloud cover is expected to increase
later tonight ahead of a cold front approaching the region.
Temperatures overnight will be a bit warmer than the last several
nights given increasing clouds and southerly flow, with lows
generally in the 20s.

The cold front will continue to push across the region through the
day tomorrow, bringing some chances for light precipitation.
Guidance continues to support to more scattered and spotty showers
with a rather lackluster feature moving through. The best chances
for measurable precipitation will be further north, although any
measurable precipitation will be fairly light ad generally only a
few hundredths. Precipitation is expected to mostly fall as rain,
although snow will be possible in the higher summits throughout the
day. In addition to light precipitation, some breezy winds may also
be possible, especially across the higher summits and Lake
Champlain. Daytime highs tomorrow will be on the warmer side under
modest southerly flow, with temperatures in the 40s outside of the
higher terrain. Cooler air will begin to filter into the region late
Friday into Saturday behind the front as winds shift to become more
northwesterly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1248 PM EST Thursday...A seasonable start to the weekend is
expected across the region with surface high pressure nosing in and
zonal flow aloft. A few lingering mountain showers will be possible
during the day Saturday, but will quickly wane given limited
moisture. Temperatures on Saturday will be seasonably cool, with
daytime highs in the 30s to low 40s. Chilly overnight lows are
expected Saturday night into early Sunday morning, with temperatures
dropping into the teens and 20s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1248 PM EST Thursday...Anticipate multiple rounds of
precipitation for next week. The first arrives on Sunday and Sunday
night, as low pressure moves by well to our north. It will drag a
couple of weak fronts through our area, bringing light valley rain
and mountain snow. Moisture will be limited and daytime temperatures
marginal, so don`t anticipate much in the way of snow accumulation;
24-hr probabilities of receiving 2 inches or more are 15 percent at
most below 2500 ft. Another stronger low pressure system will push
into the Great Lakes by mid week, likewise forcing a couple of
fronts/surface troughs across the North Country and Vermont.
However, this system will have better moisture and dynamic forcing,
so precipitation will be more substantial and widespread, likely
coming in a couple of rounds. The first will be the the warm front
later Tuesday into Tuesday night. While the valleys should be warm
enough for plain rain, higher elevations will likely see a wintry
mix Tuesday evening before changing over to rain by early Wednesday.
There may be a brief break in the precipitation Wednesday, but
expect widespread rain to redevelop Wednesday night as a strong 850
mb jet ushers additional moisture into the region. Once the low
moves by, sometime late Wednesday or Thursday, a cold front will
change rain back over to snow, particularly over the higher
elevations. There are some signs this could be a fairly strong cold
front, so temperatures may drop rather quickly, so anyone planning
Thanksgiving travel should keep a close eye on future forecast
updates. Winds could be breezy behind the cold front as well,
particularly across the higher elevations, as a 45+ kt 850 mb jet
crosses overhead. There are still plenty of differences in model
solutions with this mid-week system, so we`ll monitor trends closely
as we head toward the Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z Friday...Main aviation impacts through this TAF period
will continue to be at KMSS as low stratus continues to blanket the
St Lawrence Valley. Satellite imagery shows cloud edge slowly
eroding toward KMSS, and there may be a few-hour period this
afternoon when overcast becomes SCT or FEW. However, anticipate
IFR/LIFR ceilings to return by 22z and then remain through much of
the remainder of the forecast period. Freezing fog will once again
be possible at KMSS tonight, mainly 06z-13z. Otherwise, all
terminals should generally see VFR prevail. The exceptions are brief
MVFR ceilings around 1200 ft at KPBG through 19z today, and then
also some potential MVFR or perhaps very brief IFR at KMPV in fog
10z-13z Friday. Clouds start to thicken and lower after 12z Friday,
and some light rain showers are possible at KMSS/KSLK, but expected
areal coverage was not enough to include mention in the TAFs at this
time. Light and variable winds through this afternoon and overnight,
turning to the south at 5-10 kt after 12z Fri. Some gusts to 20 kt
possible, mainly in the Champlain Valley due to channeling of winds.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV