477
FXUS61 KBTV 111841
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
141 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Upslope snow showers will continue through tonight in parts of the
northern Adirondacks and Greens. Strong winds will also continue
into Friday resulting in areas of poor visibility associated
with blowing snow. Mostly dry weather should persist Friday,
before a clipper brings snow showers for late Saturday and
Sunday. The colder and active pattern will continue into next
week with a few additional chances for snow, though no big
snowstorms are expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* Winter Weather Advisory in effect for upslope areas of the
Adirondacks in northern New York and for portions of the
northern Greens. Totals will range 2 to 7 inches in general,
but higher elevations of the northern Green Mountains could
exceed 10 inches. Blowing snow will produce periods of very
low visibility that will be a hazard to travelers in these
locations.
As of 121 PM EST Thursday...Winds are backing with upslope snow
and snow showers ongoing. The northern Greens have been a focal
point for showers all day while northwest slopes of the
Adirondacks have been more quiet. However, the trough is
pivoting and will push more consistent showers out of southern
Canada down along the Adirondacks through this afternoon into
the overnight hours. Total snow amounts remain near previous
forecasts except for some slight decreases over portions of
northern New York. All said, the message remains the same for
persistent snow/snow showers to continue under a westerly flow
pattern through the next 12-24 hrs. Heaviest snow will be this
evening as forcing pivots around the base of the trough and
aligns with upslope winds. The only other change was to linger
snow showers longer even when wind speeds begin to decrease
since flow will remain upslope. Winds remain breezy but were
trimmed back a little on speeds since surface observations have
been a little lower than expected. Flow turns more southwesterly Friday
night supporting the cutting off of upslope showers. However,
some lake enhanced showers will initiate off of Lake Ontario
and likely begin to impact portions of St Lawrence County.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 121 PM EST Thursday...The next clipper style system is
expected to move through Saturday. While most supporting
synoptic dynamics appear weak, models are showing potential for
a defined area of forcing along the frontal boundary. This could
result in some bursts of snow and squall-like features. I`d like
to see more frontogenesis in the model projections, but the
snow squall parameter is lighting up across portions of northern
New York more associated with steeper low level lapse rates
associated with the front. This presentation points to potential
for a few smaller scale lines at a minimum, but could evolve
into something more substantial should frontogenesis increase.
For now, kept scattered showers rather than going more
widespread. Temperatures will continue to run below seasonal
averages with lows in the single digits to teens Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 121 PM EST Thursday...Mid and upper level deep and narrow
trough expected over New England and southern Quebec to start next
week with a weak surface low in southern Quebec, resulting in 15-40%
chances of snow showers focused mainly on terrain Sunday into
Monday. Unseasonably cold conditions are expected as high pressure
in the Ohio Valley draws a northwesterly flow across northern New
York and Vermont. Highs will be only in the teens to mid 20s and
lows in the -5 to 10 degree range. A weak low level jet also looks
to set up during this period, making for a blustery couple of days
with gusts up to 20-25 knots possible.
Next chance of precipitation is Monday night into Tuesday with a
weak shortwave turning winds out of the south and southwest. About
40-80% chance of precipitation, with highest likelihood of
widespread snow showers west of the Green Mountains as temperatures
fall into the single digits and lower teens Monday night, then
increase to the 20s on Tuesday. This little wave will be minimal in
terms of precipitation and impacts, but will set us up for
warmer weather into the mid and late week. High temperatures
look to warm into the 30s and lower 40s Wednesday and Thursday
under a building mid/upper ridge, brief surface high pressure in
Quebec, and warm air advection.
We continue to monitor the potential for wintry mix and icing during
this period, though models have backed off on this potential as a
whole. At the moment, it`s looking like much of the forecast area
will see rain as the primary precip type as snow levels drop with
the influx of the mild air. Precipitation most likely to occur
Thursday and Thursday night based on model consensus.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Flight categories are mixed across northern New
York with ceilings anywhere from 1400-4500 feet AGL and visibilities
ranging from 1-3 miles in snow showers and blowing snow. Westerly to
southwesterly wind gusts of 20-30 knots are being observed this
afternoon and are expected to continue and even increase throughout
the rest of the afternoon and evening, highest gusts possible around
20Z Thursday - 06Z Friday westerly 30-35 knots, then gradually
decreasing after that but largely maintaining strong gusts 15+ knots
through the end of the 24 hour TAF period. LLWS is most likely at
SLK and PBG around 11Z Friday onwards as surface winds decrease but
winds aloft remain potent across parts of northern New York. Other
sites could have brief LLWS as well during this time, but it looks
less persistent and less severe.
Upslope snow showers will continue through tonight, mainly
across the northern Adirondacks and Greens but snow showers are
possible at all TAF sites. Snow showers will likely limit
visibilities at SLK, MPV, EFK and MSS with potential for on and
off IFR vis through at least 00Z-02Z Friday. Elsewhere could
also have snow showers limiting vis, but it is closer to 30-50%
chances and lower frequency of IFR. Ceilings will continue to
bounce between VFR and MVFR levels at most sites today. At
mountain sites like MPV, SLK, and EFK, MVFR ceilings will be
more persistent into tomorrow, while other sites should return
to VFR ceilings after 00Z Friday. Mostly dry weather is expected
to persist throughout the day tomorrow, but snow showers could
linger in the mountains.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will strengthen later
tonight and continue into the day Friday. Sustained winds will
generally range between 20-30 KTs, with higher gusts. The
larger westerly component to the winds will limit waves a bit,
but they will still generally be in the 1-4 foot range tonight.
Winds eventually lower late Friday into Friday night, dropping
into the 5-15 KT range. This will lower waves down to around 1
foot.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for VTZ003-006-
016.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ029>031.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd/Mykowski
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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