163
FXUS61 KBTV 021128
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
628 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Brisk conditions will continue this morning with cold apparent
temperatures below zero degrees for most locations. A few snow
showers will continue mainly for upslope areas over the next few
days with a weak system moving through this weekend bringing some
light snow accumulations. Unseasonably cool temperatures are
expected to trend back towards seasonal averages by the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 122 AM EST Friday...After a bitterly cold morning with
temperatures ranging from -15 to 10 F, temperatures will struggle to
reach any higher than the teens and lower 20s today. Winds will be
much milder today than yesterday, however, so wind chills won`t feel
quite as sharp. After lake enhanced showers in St. Lawrence and
Franklin counties of New York abate this morning, today will be
mostly dry outside of occasional afternoon upslope snow showers
in the mountains due to increasing saturation projected in
model soundings and a passing trough shifting our flow back out
of the northwest. These conditions and shower chances persist
into the overnight tonight as well with temperatures falling
into the single digits above and below zero.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 122 AM EST Friday...A shortwave trough will approach
Saturday/Saturday night bringing some snow showers to northern New
York and Vermont. Current timing of the wave supports best chances
overnight into early Sunday, perhaps 10-40% chances of measurable
precipitation. This wave is projected to be quite weak and quick-
moving across all models pointing to only token amounts of snow,
generally less a half an inch being favored. Temperatures will
remain colder than average with highs likely only in the teens to
mid 20s and overnight lows in the single digits around zero.
Another trough and weaker variety cold front will move through the
region on Sunday. Have generally 10-40% PoPs for this period as
well. Aside for the Connecticut River Valley, intervals of snow
showers or flurries are possible during the day on Sunday.
Otherwise, it`ll be cold on Sunday with highs in the teens to mid
20s yet again.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 136 AM EST Friday...1028mb high pres is progged to be
directly over SLK at 12z Monday, resulting in ideal radiational
cooling conditions with light winds and clear skies. The only
issue from keeping temps from completely bottoming out wl be
timing of mid/upper lvl clouds/clouds toward 12z Monday from
west to east associated with next system. Did note the NBM was
negative 2F for BTV and -13F at SLK, while the 50th percentile
was -4F and -21F respectively. Did blend in some 50th
percentile to lower temps by 2 to 4 degrees, supporting lows
between -5F and -15F for now. Additional lowering maybe needed
once confidence increases on timing of mid/upper lvl clouds,
given progged 925mb temps btwn -20C and -22C. Next weak
clipper/warm frontal system arrives on Monday into Monday in the
fast zonal flow aloft. System has limited dynamics and
moisture, so only anticipating a light snowfall attm. Temps wl
rebound quickly into the mid teens to near 20F by Monday aftn
and warm near seasonable levels by Tuesday in the mid 20s to
near 30F, supported by progged 925mb temps of -4C to -7C.
Mid/upper lvl pattern evolution continues to evolve for mid to
late week with zonal flow for midweek, developing into eastern
CONUS ridge for late week into next weekend. The general idea of
several weak embedded s/w`s and lobes of moisture wl keep fa
unsettled, but probability of a significant system is low with
lack of pattern amplification and fast flow aloft. Temps
generally trending at or above normal by mid to late week with
increasing chances of light wintry mix to rain scenario
developing, as colder air remains trapped near the sfc. For now
have highs warming into the 30s with lows mainly in the 20s to
near 30F.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Currently VFR in most taf sites except
MVFR cigs at RUT/SLK. Expect these lower cigs to improve to VFR
by 15-16z this morning. Otherwise, a brief passing snow shower
with MVFR/IFR cannot be ruled out at any mtn taf sites today
into this aftn, but moisture profiles are minimal, so impacts
should be marginal VFR continues into this evening with
additional minor threat for more very light snow showers and
localized MVFR conditions possible. West to northwest winds
continue at 3 to 7 knots.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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