150
FXUS61 KBTV 210015
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
715 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerously cold conditions are expected through much of the
week as an arctic airmass settles over the region, with wind
chills between 10 and 20 degrees below zero at times. Lake
effect snow will develop off Lake Ontario, bringing some snow to
portions of northern New York tonight and Tuesday before
pushing south. Temperatures will moderate towards the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 548 PM EST Monday...Temperatures are dropping quickly
this evening as skies remain clear and winds are going calm.
This trend is expected to continue for much of the evening.
However, around and after midnight, clouds off Lake Ontario are
expected to enter the region and southwesterly flow will
develop. These two changes will cause the temperatures to
generally stop dropping or even rise a few degrees. The big
question on how low temperatures can go is how long these two
developments will hold off. Wind chills will only drop once
these winds pick up, so before that, with mostly calm
conditions, the apparent temperatures will be close to the
actual temperature.

Previous Discussion...Dangerously cold weather is expected for
much of this week as an arctic airmass settles over the region.
A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of the
Adirondacks and the Northeast Kingdom tonight, with wind chills
as low as 25 below zero, with wind chills on the higher summits
even colder with wind chills between 30 and 40 below zero.
Outside of the Cold Weather Advisory, temperatures will also be
bitterly cold, with wind chills generally between 5 and 15
degrees below zero. Tomorrow will continue to be bitterly cold,
with high temperatures only climbing into the single digits to
mid teens, with wind chills continuing to be near or below zero.
Anyone planning on being outside should dress appropriately, as
these temperatures can quickly lead to frostbite on any exposed
skin.

In addition to the bitter cold, some lake effect snow will
develop off Lake Ontario. As winds shift to become more
westerly, the snow band will shift into the region to bring
snowfall to southern St. Lawrence County and parts of the
western Adirondacks with some light showers possibly reaching
northern Vermont. Snow ratios will be quite high with the cold
temperatures, generally 20:1 or higher. The main band and
greatest accumulations look to remain south of our forecast
area, although accumulations of 2 to 5 inches will be possible
across portions of southern St. Lawrence. Lake effect will begin
to wane Tuesday night into Wednesday as ridging begins to build
overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 408 PM EST Monday...Bitter cold temperatures will
continue throughout the day Wednesday, with the morning starting
off near or below zero in most locations, and highs only
warming into single digits to mid teens. Some light chances for
precipitation will begin to arrive Wednesday night as moisture-
starved clipper system passes through, although totals with this
feature look to be light.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 408 PM EST Monday...Broad upper level cyclonic flow will
remain is favored to remain over the North Country through this
weekend, but surface flow should turn more southerly by Friday.
This will herald a noticeable warming trend with 925-850mb
increasing by at least 10C. Temperatures in the upper 20s to low
30s by Saturday seem reasonable with this relative pattern
shift. With a deeper southwest flow pattern likely to develop,
periods of snow showers are probable as lake enhanced showers
off of Lake Ontario spread across the region. Best chances for
accumulating snow will be towards the upslope areas of the
Adirondacks, but details are vague on actual amounts. Elsewhere,
15- 30% chances will be pervasive with higher terrain favored
with better chances. This isn`t a pattern for large amounts of
snow. By late weekend into early next, a front will begin
approaching the Northeast bumping up snow chances with breezes
likely to increase as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR will be widespread across all sites
for majority of the TAF period, with SLK trending towards
MVFR/IFR with a lake effect snow band forming overnight. Periods
of -SHSN is expected at SLK by 04Z which will reduce
visibilities and ceilings to IFR levels under these snow showers
with prevailing MVFR otherwise. The lake effect band is
expected to trend south of SLK by 16Z returning ceilings to MVFR
levels at 2000-3000 ft agl. Ceilings across the remainder of
the region will gradually lower by 05Z but should remain at VFR
levels. Winds will shift from north/northwesterly to
south/southwesterly by 06Z with calming winds speeds as a upper
level trough approaches the region.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST
     Tuesday for VTZ003-004-007.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST
     Tuesday for NYZ030-031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Danzig/Neiles