898
FXUS61 KBTV 151827
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
227 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday...
Patchy dense fog has been added to the forecast in favored valley
locations for midnight tonight thru approximately 8am Tuesday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday...
1. Patchy dense fog tonight into early Tuesday morning.
2. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms possible
Wednesday.
3. After a stronger system on Thursday, cool and showery
conditions will prevail late this week and over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Generally quiet weather conditions anticipated over the
next 36 hours (thru Wednesday morning). A narrow zone of surface
high pressure cresting over the North Country overnight will bring
light and variable wind conditions after midnight. Ongoing areas of
stratocu in low-level CAA (and trapped beneath a sharp inversion
layer) will persist into this evening, but are also expected to
dissipate toward midnight. Given widespread rainfall that
occurred on Sunday/Sunday night, conditions are favorable for
patchy dense fog, especially in the favored river valleys. Fog
should persist through 12-13Z Tuesday before dissipating.
Overnight lows are generally expected in the mid 40s to lower
50s, except locally in the upper 30s across the northern
Adirondacks.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A modest shortwave trough is expected to shift
northeastward into nrn NY and VT mid-late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening. Should see partly sunny conditions for the
balance of the day, but with an increasing chance for scattered
showers during the afternoon and evening hours. Weak surface-based
CAPE up to 750 J/kg may allow for a few embedded thunderstorms,
though severe storms are not expected. Afternoon high temperatures
may be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday, generally reaching the mid-
upper 70s, and a few lower 80s in the Champlain and Upper
Connecticut River Valley. South winds increasing to around 10 mph in
the afternoon will allow dewpoints to climb into the mid-upper 50s
late in the day.
KEY MESSAGE 3: An impressive mid-June system will track along and north
of the St. Lawrence Valley on Thursday. Buoyed by mid-level
instability and a 120 knot jet streak to our southwest, this warm
front will have excellent lift. 850mb winds of 50-55 knots will
produce strong moisture advection through the region. A solid shield
of rain will race northeast through our forecast area in 4-6 hours
on Thursday morning. Thereafter, the intense sub 990mb surface low
will pass along Montreal during the afternoon with the occlusion
shifting east about noon-8pm. Convergence along the front will be
good, and there will about some instability and below normal
temperatures aloft. We will likely see convection, but equilibrium
levels will be around -12 C, which suggests short and stout activity
that may struggle to produce thunder with general lack of cloud ice.
Still, we`ll keep an eye, as there will be plenty of wind in the low-
levels, but the strong shear may inhibit lift, in addition to dry
air in the warm section. Some guidance has activity redeveloping,
while others keep things limited, and so time will tell. Given the
strong, but fast, nature of the front, and then some convection,
there should be roughly 0.33-0.67" of precipitation with localized
amounts around 1-1.25".
Precipitation will begin to gradually clear the area on Thursday
night as a large upper low spirals to our north. It won`t really
budge for several days. So intervals of scattered rain showers will
shift southeastwards across the region for the latter part of the
week. If any day were to have thunder, it might be Friday with
somewhat higher instability, cool temperatures aloft, and a weak
surface trough passing through together. By next Sunday into next
Monday, the upper low will begin to open into a trough and slide
eastwards. As is typical for seven days out, models begin to sharply
diverge, but things are leaning on the cool, showery side.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Stratocumulus clouds have been a little more
persistent than anticipated. KSLK also has a lower layer of SCT007
as a subtle area of vorticity coming off Lake Ontario has kept
clouds, lower ceilings, and a few showers nearby. This feature is
dissipating, but the chance for a few showers and intervals of
1200-2000 ft agl ceilings will still be present for a little longer.
West to northwest winds of 6-12 knots will prevail for the next few
hours, and then gradually subside between 23-02z towards light and
variable. Clouds will begin to scatter overnight. Although patchy
high clouds will be possible overnight, the recent rainfall and
modest radiational cooling with dry mid-levels and light surface
winds should allow some valley fog. There`s some 15-25 knot winds
hovering near 500-1000 ft agl, and this may limit activity. This may
also result in areas of localized LLWS, but is not noted at any
particular terminal. For now, 3SM is noted at just KSLK and KMPV
still from roughly 07z-12z. After 12z, southwest to west-northwest
winds pick up to about 5-9 knots, except for a lake breeze with a
southeast wind at KPBG.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banacos
DISCUSSION...Banacos/Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
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