FXUS61 KBTV 141400
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1000 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021
Seasonably warm days with sunshine and scattered afternoon
showers will persist Friday through Monday, with the chance for
a rumble of thunder on Sunday and Monday. Generally quiet and
pleasant weather is expected for the middle of next week as a
ridge of high pressure establishes itself over the region.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 950 AM EDT Friday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. Starting to see some clouds pop up over the
higher terrain on satellite. Still expect we could have a few
showers this afternoon with a rumble of thunder or two.
Otherwise, we`ll see partly sunny skies and highs peaking into
the upper 60s to lower 70s. The forecast has this all covered,
so no changes were needed.
Previous discussion...A gorgeous spring day is expected as
upper ridge builds eastwards. 925 hPa temperatures will be a
couple degrees celsius warmer, so expect afternoon highs to be
about 3-4 degrees F warmer today. This puts afternoon highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Mostly sunny skies will give way to
fair weather cumulus in the afternoon. A few showers will be
possible this afternoon. However, abundant dry air remains in
place, which will limit coverage and may prevent much
precipitation from making it to the surface.
Overnight, temperatures will quickly cool with effective
radiational cooling from the light winds, partly cloudy skies,
and dry PBL conditions. Thus, lows are expected to dip into the
upper 30s to lower 40s across the cold hollows, and generally in
the 40s for the rest of the region. Saturday will be a near
carbon copy of Friday, except an upper trough will be
approaching from the west and winds will be more west to
southwesterly than northwesterly. Trends have been for less and
less convection with each cycle, likely due to the abundant dry
air across the region. Thus, an overall pleasant start to the
weekend is expected, but a spot shower will be possible in the
afternoon, especially near high terrain.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...Saturday night will feature quiet
weather once again, and temperatures will drop into the 40s
areawide. Sunday looks to be our best chance for showers as
better chances for convection develops with an upper level
shortwave crossing our area. Forecast soundings show the best
boundary layer instability we`ve seen in days developing in the
afternoon helping to support the development of scattered
showers and some isolated rumbles of thunder. Temps once again
will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...Trends for the extended are for a
drier and warmer period to take shape. Looks like we could have
a chance for some afternoon showers on both Monday and Tuesday
afternoons especially in Vermont, but really not a good strong
feature to hang your hat on. Drier weather will then be expected
from Wednesday onward as a large surface and upper level ridge
will dominate the weather pattern. Temperatures will be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s with lows dropping into the 40s each
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected over the
next 24 hours. Winds may briefly start out of the southwest this
morning before becoming northwesterly at 5 to 10 knots after
14Z, remaining southwest to westerly at KMSS and KSLK. A few
gusts around 15 knots possible from 17Z to 22Z. Isolated showers
will develop around 17Z to 22Z as well with cloud based around
8000ft agl. Do not anticipate impact to TAF terminals. Winds
subside after 22Z, becoming variable and terrain driven once
more with any showers dissipating quickly after sunset. No fog
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.