FXUS61 KBTV 260221
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1021 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023
A broad region of high pressure will set up across eastern Canada
and the northeastern United States. Seasonable and dry weather
conditions will prevail for the next week as high pressure remains
anchored across the region. Nighttime fog across the river valleys
is likely each night this week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1019 PM EDT Monday...No significant adjustments necessary
with only changes related to minor temperature adjustments to
better match observation trends which have been warmer than
previous expectations. As a result the cooling curve was
lessened marginally over the next four hours.
Previous Discussion...Surface high pressure is building. It
will remain anchored over the area for the next week, and there
won`t be much to write about. East or southeast flow will
provide a steady flow of maritime air, with seasonable weather
(mid 60s to low 70s by day, 40s at night) and enough low-level
moisture for fog development alongside ideal radiational cooling
conditions. We`re in the midst of our peak time for nocturnal
fog, and that should become the staple for the next week. Will
note that there is still some smoke, mainly aloft, which will
linger into Tuesday. But as the surface high becomes more
established, east- southeast flow will push smoke out of the
area. It looks like conditions on Tuesday night will be cold
enough to talk frost/freeze in the Adirondacks and perhaps Essex
County Vermont, with some 31-36 degree temperature forecasts in
there at present.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 246 PM EDT Monday...A very quiet mid to late week period is
expected across the North Country and Vermont as cool Canadian high
pressure will dominate over the region. No precipitation and
seasonal temperatures will be the daily forecast, with highs normal
to slight above in the upper 60s to low 70s. The coldest night will
be Wednesday night with the high directly overhead or just east
where lows will be widespread in the 40s to 30s in the Adirondacks
where some frost is possible. Otherwise, lows will generally range
from the mid 40s to low 50s for Thursday and Friday nights.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 246 PM EDT Monday...Heading into the weekend, dry conditions
will generally continue as the latest deterministic and ensemble
guidance only briefly break down the upper ridge before intensifying
it again. There still appears to be some sort of coastal system that
develops during the brief ridge breakdown, but all signs point to
this remaining well south of our region. Something to keep an eye on
as it`s still a good 6-7 days out. Otherwise, temps looks to be
slightly above normal with highs in the low/mid 70s and lows mid 40s
to mid 50s.
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Conditions are currently VFR with a few
pockets of 3500-9000 ft agl stratocumulus clouds. North to
northeast winds are occurring in general, but some locations are
already tapering off with radiation inversions beginning.
Terminals with remaining winds are ranging 5-13kts with MSS
being on the top end of the range as flow remains channeled down
the St Lawrence River Valley. Tertiary winds are already
kicking in at KRUT with easterly flow expected to shift
southeast drainage wind. Elsewhere winds will trend light and
variable or calm. As skies clear tonight, another round of
nocturnal fog should develop in favored locations like KMPV,
KEFK, and KSLK. The potential exists for KMSS as well, but
intervals of 1/2SM to 4SM fog is likely between about 05z and
13z. After 13z, northeast winds at 4 to 7 knots return and fog
should dissipate; MSS may gust up to 15-20kts.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Saturday: VFR. Patchy BR.