789
FXUS61 KBTV 181854
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
154 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A powerful storm system will produce very gusty winds, warm
temperatures and a line of heavy rainfall late tonight into Friday
across our region. A wind advisory has been issued for the entire
area with gusts 45 to 55 mph expected, especially on Friday morning.
Isolated to scattered power outages are possible. Temperatures will
warm into the 50s on Friday, before dropping back into the 20s and
30s by Friday night. Cooler temperatures with chances of snow
showers prevails for most of the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 143 PM EST Thursday...Wind advisory has been expanded to
include our entire forecast area and extended in time until 18z
Friday for wind gusts 45 to 55 mph and the potential for isolated to
scattered power outages.

Trends have been slightly stronger with wind profiles on Friday
morning with a delayed fropa by 2 to 4 hours, resulting in
warmer temps.

Temps have overachieved in a few areas today with
readings warming into the lower 50s parts of the SLV, while MSS
has northeast winds and a temp of 37F as of 1:45 PM. Many areas
have climbed into the 40s with brisk south winds of 15 to 30
mph with localized gusts 35 to 45 mph already. Lake Placid and
the Sandbar have gusted to 45 mph and 39 mph here at BTV.

Sfc analysis places powerful and deepening 985mb low pres near Ely
MN, while a 1030mb high pres is acrs the north Atlantic. Upper air
analysis shows sharpening full latitude mid/upper lvl trof acrs the
central Plains, while deep moisture advection continues on a
strengthening south to southwest flow in the 925mb to 500mb layer.
As sfc low pres deepens the 925mb to 850mb wind fields strengthens
overnight into Friday acrs our region. The NAM and RAP both show
progged 850mb winds of 75 to 90 knots, while 925mb winds are in the
55 to 70 knot range, highest over the northern Dacks into the
northern CPV. The difficult challenge continues to be how much
mixing occurs, as the strongest winds are co-located with the axis
of heaviest rainfall. However, given the progged fine line of
convective showers by NAM3KM/HRRR, the embedded heavier down
pours would have the potential to tap very strong winds in the
925mb to 850mb layer and transfer some higher speeds to the sfc.
Given this potential and latest RAP/HRRR soundings showing 500
foot agl winds of 45 to 55 knots, with 59 knots at Malone at
12z Friday, we have expanded the wind advisory. HREF shows 60
to 80% prob of 60 mph or greater winds along the Route 11
corridor and acrs parts of central/northern VT with <30% prob of
winds greater than 65 mph, while indicating 90 to 100% of winds
>45 mph acrs most of our cwa. Did consider High Wind Warning
for northern Dacks, but southeast direction and still some
uncertainty on boundary layer mixing, may limit areal coverage
of 60 mph wind gusts. Still something to watch closely. Also,
have some concerns over southern Greens with southeast downslope
gusts near Rutland, but soundings are showing slightly weaker
low level wind fields and limited mixing due to the moist
adiabatic sounding profile and weak inversion above ridgetop.
Generally thinking wind gusts in the 45 to 55 mph range, which
wl peak between 4 AM and Noon on Friday.

Large swings in temps anticipated the next 12 to 36 hrs, with a wide
range anticipated in lows tonight, from the mid/upper 20s in the
colder/protected valleys east of the Greens to temps warming thru
the 40s western Dacks/CPV. As progged 925mb temps surge btwn 6-9C
ahead of approaching boundary on Friday, expect an axis of 48 to
55F, while dwpts climb into the mid 40s to lower 50s. This
combination of warm temps and dwpts, with gusty winds wl result in
rapid snow melt acrs all elevations for a 6 to 10 hr window on
Friday. As sfc cold frnt sweeps acrs our region btwn 18z-00z, temps
wl quickly drop back into the mid 20s to mid 30s acrs our region.
The threat for a flash freeze is minimal acrs many of the valley
locations due the lagging arctic boundary by 3 to 6 hours, which
should allow for many surface to dry out before dropping below
freezing.

Little change in our qpf thinking with 0.50 to 1.0" acrs our cwa,
strong wind fields wl result in some shadowing over the northern
Dacks. This qpf, combined with snow melt wl result in modest in bank
river rises, with a few approaching action stage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 143 PM EST Thursday...Deepening sub 970mb low pres wl be acrs
eastern Canada, while brisk west to northwest winds prevail with
moderately strong caa. Progged 850mb winds in the 45 to 60 knot
range with lower subsidence inversion below ridgetop supports
localized gusts up to 50 mph on Friday night into Saturday,
especially downslope areas of the eastern Dacks and Green Mtns. The
lowering inversion height below summit level near sunrise on Sat
morning wl help to enhance top of the mixed layer winds toward the
sfc in favorable downslope areas. An additional wind advisory wl be
likely from near Ludlow to Stowe to Westfield and near acrs the
eastern Dacks. High res guidance conts to indicate a secondary surge
of arctic air sweeping acrs our cwa btwn 03z-09z Saturday, this
convergence and ribbon of better moisture/instability would support
additional snow showers with maybe an embedded snow squalls. Timing
and limited instability and moisture should minimize threat, but
something to watch with boundary. Have continued with likely pops
mtns to schc/low chc in valleys with a dusting to several inches of
snow anticipated by morning. Good luck measuring it, given the
strong winds. Lows range from single digits summits to lower 20s CPV
valley, which wl support good snow making temps to help area recover
from recent warmup and rain. By late Saturday into Sat night, winds
quickly shift to the south/southwest with a strengthening 850mb jet
of 45 to 50 knots, as sfc low pres passes to our north. Given
southwest flow and progged track of sfc low pres, any qpf/snowfall
wl be light and mainly confined to the trrn. Highs Sat warm into the
upper 20s to mid 30s with early evening lows in the upper teens to
mid 20s, but warming after midnight as winds and clouds increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1231 PM EST Thursday...Colder air aloft is expected to rush
into northern New York and Vermont following a cold front on Sunday,
likely resulting in dropping temperatures throughout the afternoon.
Our slightly-above- seasonable highs in the upper 20s and 30s are
anticipated at the start of the day, with much of the day
experiencing cooler conditions. The colder air will also be drier
than the pre-existing air mass over the Northeast, and any lingering
scattered showery precipitation in the morning from low pressure
crossing Quebec to our north will diminish into the afternoon.

Any precipitation Sunday will mostly be snow except in parts of the
Champlain Valley near the lake where rain may mix in while
temperatures remain above freezing. Surface winds will also be quite
breezy on Sunday and Sunday night with the passage of the cold front
out of the west with gusts 20-30 knots, higher on summits as a low
level jet blows up to 50-60 knots at the 850mb level. Winds on Lake
Champlain will be especially strong Sunday afternoon into the early
morning hours Monday morning, likely triggering a Lake Wind
Advisory.

The cold front and colder air will result in a cold Sunday night
through Monday night with temperatures falling back below normals as
brief high pressure builds in out of the southeastern US. Again,
will be very brief since our next system looks to arrive Tuesday,
though models disagree on the exact intensity and strength of such a
system as the GFS wants to place surface low pressure and upper
level wave much closer to our area than the ECMWF, which gives us
more of a glancing frontal blow of precipitation. This system should
draw back in milder air through the late week, but still cold enough
and soundings saturated enough to see mostly snow as our
precipitation type.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...A strong frontal system is approaching the
region this afternoon, causing winds to increase out of the south,
warming the region with rainfall on the way tonight. VFR conditions
are widespread and wind gusts 25-30 knots are already occurring in
the channeled Champlain Valley. LLWS is set to continue over the
next 24 hours as a low level jet moves overhead. Winds at 2000 ft
will likely accelerate to 65 to 75 knots out of the south- southwest
this afternoon into tomorrow, which should produce significant LLWS
or severe turbulence that could prove very hazardous to general
aviation.

At the surface, wind gusts of up to 30-45 knots are expected at all
terminals, highest at central and northern VT sites like MPV and EFK
11Z-16Z Friday onwards. Rain accompanying this frontal system is
forecast to arrive around 08Z-11Z and continue through the next 24
hours, bringing with it MVFR ceilings 1000-3000 feet above ground
level. Of all the sites, models are suggesting RUT as the site most
likely to see ceilings 500-1000 feet, though agreement amongst
solutions is minimal. If IFR conditions are to occur, the thinking
is that they will generally be in the form of lowered visibilities
to 1-3 miles 12Z-18Z Friday in moderate rainfall, most likely at
SLK. At this time, confidence is low enough to leave out of the TAF,
but will be reassessed at next TAF package.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Sharp rises on streams and rivers are anticipated on Friday
into Friday night associated with warm temperatures, snow melt,
and moderate rainfall. Rainfall of 0.50 to 1.25 is expected with
snow melt adding another 0.75 to 1.25 inches into the river
basins. Given dewpoints will be above freezing on Friday,
efficient snow melt will be likely. The rivers with greatest
potential to reach action stage, given expected rainfall and
snow melt are the Ausable, Mad, and Otter Creek at Center
Rutland on Friday afternoon and evening. Crests on the Mad and
Ausable Rivers will be Friday afternoon, and Otter Creek and the
Winooski cresting closer to Friday evening/early Saturday
morning. Lastly, while any river ice may move, the threat of ice
jams remains low.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Champlain through
Friday. Southerly winds ahead an approaching frontal system
will lead to channeling effects on Lake Champlain enhancing wind
and wave conditions. Winds on the broad lake will increase to
20 to 30 knots with gusts as high as 45 to 55 knots, becoming
strongest late tonight into Friday. Waves will be generally 4
to 6 ft on the broad lake and 2 to 4 on the northern and
southern ice free portions of the lake.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Incoming warmer air and precipitation is presently forecast to
approach daily record values. The most likely date for records
will be Friday December 19th for both daily high temperatures
and precipitation. Below are some of the daily records in
jeopardy of being broken (current forecast at or within 3
degrees of the record).

Record High Temperatures:

December 18:
KBTV: 49/1895
KMPV: 49/1949
KPBG: 49/1967
K1V4: 47/2023


Record Daily Precipitation:

December 18:
KBTV: 0.62/1912
KMPV: 0.35/1998
K1V4: 0.24/1998
KMSS: 0.43/1970
KPBG: 0.17/1970
KSLK: 0.70/1912

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
HYDROLOGY...Taber
MARINE...Team BTV
CLIMATE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV