FXUS61 KBTV 200002
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
702 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022
Colder weather will return tonight and linger into the weekend
as strong high pressure builds over the North Country. Several
periods of wind chill concerns will be possible throughout the
week. After today`s light snow, no significant precipitation is
expected through the rest of the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 700 PM EST Wednesday...First surface front is currently
crossing our area and have noticed a fine line of light snow
showers crossing Northern New York. Briefly lower visibilities
and gusty winds are expected with this feature. No big changes
for the 630 pm update tonight. Previous discussion follows.
Overall, very little changes made to the forecast for this
evening. Low pressure currently located north of Ottawa will
continue to pass north of the international border. Before the
surface front crosses our area overnight, areas of patchy
freezing drizzle may be possible across the Adirondacks and
northern Vermont. Sounding indicate shallow low level moisture
is in place with no saturation within the DGZ. Reports of light
icing have occurred at Saranac Lake this afternoon with 0.01" of
ice report with both TYX & CXX showing very light returns
across these areas. This should be relatively short lived with
increasing moisture and omega approaching the area towards 00z
as the cold front associated with the aforementioned low to our
north passes across the area. As this boundary treks eastward
overnight, scattered snow showers will be possible. A few of
these may be moderate at times, especially across northern New
York, where enhanced moisture downwind of Lake Ontario will be
greatest. The main timeframe for these snow showers will be
between 00z-06z. Accumulations up to a quick dusting to half
inch are possible.
Tomorrow will feature below normal temperatures again as the
arctic boundary crosses the area early Thursday morning.
Upstream observations show many readings in the single digits to
teens. Expect temperature to drop overnight and remain fairly
steady throughout the day with highs struggling to get into the
double digits for many locations. While winds will be less
strong tomorrow than they were today for some places, wind chill
values remain bitterly cold with readings in the teens below
zero across northern New York by Thursday afternoon, spreading
eastward into Vermont Thursday night. Winds will be diminishing
heading into the overnight hours but will still stay elevated
around 10 to 15 mph. This coupled with temperatures falling into
the single digits and teens below zero will likely produce wind
chill concerns. At this time, no wind chill headlines are in
effect but may be needed with future packages for Thursday night
given widespread readings from 18 to 25 below zero.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EST Wednesday...Arctic high pressure centers over
the forecast area on Friday with little reprieve expected during
the day from overnight lows. High temps will struggle to get
above zero across the north, and only into the single digits to
around 10 above south, but hey, at least it will be sunny :)
Friday night will rinse and repeat the previous night though
with clearer skies and lighter winds leading to favorable
radiational cooling conditions. Expect lows to be just as cold
as the previous night in the -10F to -25F range.
For Saturday through Sunday, really not seeing any notable
differences in todays NWP guidance to sway the forecast away
from what we`ve been highlighting. The aforementioned high
pressure and ridging aloft blocking any phasing between polar
and subtropical jets will keep low pressure well south of our
region, but a weakening arctic front will traverse the area
Sunday will provide some light snow but with little impact.
We`ll see a little warming trend though with highs Saturday in
the teens, and back towards normal in the 20s on Sunday. Lows
Saturday night in the single digits above and below zero.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EST Wednesday...Heading into next week, certainty
unfortunately exists that temperatures will remain below normal
with average highs in the low/mid teens and lows below zero
again. There is much uncertainty though as to precipitation
chances as the ECMWF and GDPS mainly show high pressure
dominating, while the GFS is highlighting a clipper system on
Tuesday. Regardless of what is right, not much hazardous weather
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00z Thursday...VFR conditions will trend towards a mix
of MVFR and VFR through the next 12 hours in the immediate wake
of a couple of frontal boundaries passing through the region.
The initial front is marked by some snow showers which will
likely impact SLK for a short time between 01Z and 03Z with
lower chance farther east. Otherwise, low level wind shear
through the next few hours at MPV, RUT, and EFK should decrease
with any lingering LLWS mainly in the eastern slopes of the
mountains. VFR ceilings at MSS and RUT are expected to briefly
lower to under 3000 feet before clouds scatter at MSS and
ceilings lift at RUT by 12Z. Meanwhile, SLK will tend to see
MVFR ceilings through most of the period before slowly improving
by 18Z. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots gusting in the 15 to 25
knot range will shift westerly this evening, then northwesterly
towards daybreak with gusts subsiding during the morning hours.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.