970
FXUS61 KBTV 201755
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1255 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerously cold conditions are expected through mid week as an
arctic airmass settles over the region, with wind chills
dropping to 10 to 20 below zero at times. Lake effect snow
showers will move into parts of northern New York tonight and
Tuesday, before pushing back south Tuesday night. Temperatures
moderate late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1253 PM EST Monday...The current forecast remains on track,
with just a few minor adjustments to sky cover as there are
plenty of blue skies out there this afternoon. Temperatures
continue to be quite blustery, generally in the single digits
and lower teens, so be sure to bundle up if you plan on being
outdoors.

Previous discussion...Snow is finally starting to wind down
across northern NY early this morning, and expect the back edge
will continue to push eastward through daybreak. Haven`t
received much in the way of snow reports overnight, but will
allow the Winter Weather Advisory to remain in place since snow
will continue for at least a few more hours in the Advisory
area. There`s been a fairly narrow band of snow off the southern
end of Lake Champlain, and wouldn`t be surprised if this has
produced 3-5 inches where it`s been most persistent. Even as
snow ends this morning, roads will likely remain snow covered
and slippery, with some areas of blowing and drifting snow
possible. Please use caution if you`ll be driving this morning.

Otherwise, the focus is the dangerously cold conditions that will
settle over the region. We`re already cold this morning, with
temperatures generally 5 to 15F at this hour. Winds are still a
little brisk in spots, though most locations are down below 10 mph.
Still, wind chills of -5 to -15F are likely through the morning
hours, with locally colder conditions possible. Things won`t improve
much through the day, in spite of expected sunshine. Ambient air
temperatures will likely remain in the upper single digits to upper
teens, and north winds of around 10 mph with gusts of 15-20 mph will
keep wind chill values near to below zero, even during the
afternoon. In particular, mountain summits will be dangerously cold
today; air temperatures below zero combined with winds of 15 to 30
mph will keep wind chills -25F to -35F. Anyone planning on outdoor
recreation should dress for dangerously cold conditions, or delay
their plans until conditions improve.

Tonight will be more of the same: dangerously cold conditions.
Overnight lows will be very near or below zero everywhere, coldest
in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Winds will lessen
overnight, which will help keep wind chills generally -10F to -20F.
Some areas will be very close to wind chill criteria, so subsequent
shifts will need to monitor trends to see if a Cold Weather Advisory
is needed. North/northwest winds today will trend toward the
west/southwest overnight into Tuesday as an upper trough digs into
the Great Lakes. This will allow a lake effect snow band off of Lake
Ontario to shift back northward and potentially stream into portions
of the southern St Lawrence Valley and into the Adirondacks. This
band will waffle around a bit tonight and Tuesday, though the core
of it looks to remain just to the south of our forecast area. Still,
areas across southern St Lawrence and Franklin Counties in NY could
pick up 2 to 5 inches through Tuesday. The other concern for Tuesday
is, of course, the continued cold. Lapse rates will steepen during
the day, and ample mixing to 700 mb is expected. As such, winds will
become gusty during the day, with gusts of 15-25 mph. High
temperatures will once again only be +5 to +15F, hence we`ll see
another day with wind chills near to below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 258 AM EST Monday...A lake effect band will remain angled
northeastward off of Lake Ontario Tuesday night, with the eastern
fringes of the band extending into southern Saint Lawrence,
Franklin, and Essex counties in NY. Lighter snow associated with
the band may also reach into portions of northern VT. An upper
level trough axis will move through towards sunrise Wednesday
morning, shifting the orientation of the band southward and
eventually shutting off the band by Wednesday afternoon as ridging
builds and drier air moves in. Temperatures Wednesday morning will
again be very cold, with lows near to below zero throughout the
area. High temperatures Wednesday will be in the single digits to
mid teens. Light winds in the morning will increase to 5-10 mph
during the afternoon, which will make for another chilly day with
wind chills in the single digits or below zero.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 258 AM EST Monday...As the center of the anticyclone shifts
east Wednesday night into Thursday, southerly return flow will
commence. 850 mb temps will climb from -20C Wednesday evening to a
more seasonable range of -10 to -12C by Friday morning. Surface
temperatures will warm noticeably on Thursday, then gradually climb
to above normal going into the weekend. For reference,
climatologically normal values for this time of year are in the mid
to upper 20s for highs and single digits to low teens for lows.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive Wednesday night into
Thursday as the remnants of a moisture-starved clipper move through.
Probabilistic guidance suggests snow totals with this system will be
very limited...a dusting to an inch or two in most areas. The areas
directly downwind of Lake Ontario will benefit from some extra
moisture advection off the Lake, so portions of southern Saint
Lawrence County would be most likely to be on the higher end of that
range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR will be widespread across all sites
for majority of the day, with SLK trending towards MVFR/IFR
with a lake effect snow band forming later this evening.
Periods of -SHSN is expected at SLK by 04Z which will reduce
visibilities and ceilings to IFR levels under these snow showers
with prevailing MVFR otherwise. The lake effect band is
expected to trend south of SLK by 16Z returning ceilings to MVFR
levels at 2000-3000 ft agl. Ceilings across the remainder of
the region will gradually lower by 05Z but should remain at VFR
levels. Winds will shift from north/northwesterly to
south/southwesterly by 06Z with calming winds speeds as a upper
level trough approaches the region.


Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...Danzig