645
FXUS61 KBTV 121849
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
249 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 249 PM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 249 PM EDT Sunday...
1. Warm Monday, hot and humid on Tuesday with when significant
heat is likely, localized fire weather concerns on Wednesday.
2. Precipitation chances increase early this week. A sharp cold
front will pass through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday
bringing a chance for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong
to severe.
3. Seasonable conditions are generally expected for the latter
half of the week into the weekend, with a few chances for showers
possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 249 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The low level air mass will warm a bit compared to
recent days for Monday as flow turns southerly ahead of a shortwave
trough. While light rain may cool temperatures a bit later in the
day, think enough sunshine will be present to boost temperatures
back into the 80s areawide.
Much hotter and more humid air remains on track to surge into the
region on Tuesday. Have noted the air mass that will be advecting
into the region may be more humid and less hot than what the
current blend suggests, with low to mid 70s dew points common in
eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota this afternoon with
temperatures surging into the 90s. Have trended heat index
values a touch higher with this forecast with maximum values
mainly in the 92 to 99 range at elevations 1000 feet and below,
but overall the idea of significant heat building in Tuesday is
unchanged. Full sunshine/little cloud cover will support
dangerous heat for outdoor activities during the afternoon hours
especially. We also continue to expect unusually breezy
conditions to accompany the heat, although this hot wind will
not bring much relief. The magnitude of the winds don`t appear
to be significant from a utilities standpoint, but deep mixing
above 850 millibars during peak heating could lead to some gusts
approaching 35 MPH in many locations, especially in northern
New York and eastern downslope/foothills in Vermont with the
westerly flow.
Behind a cold front passing through early Wednesday, drier air
will make for more comfortable conditions, although the deep
mixing of still rather warm air should still lead to above
normal temperatures. We will also be monitoring potential for
gusty winds given low relative humidities, posing a fire weather
risk in areas that will have seen little to no meaningful
rainfall in more than a week across portions of south central Vermont
and southern Champlain Valley.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A trough will bring an increase in clouds and chance for
light rain showers during the day. Perhaps the combination of
moistening of very dry air near the ground and the
aforementioned shortwave will be enough to support a heavier
shower or even an isolated thunderstorm late in the day, but
risk appears to be quite low.
Much more meaningful thunderstorm chances remain for Tuesday night.
Unfortunately, the predictability of the hazard impacts (the
important when and where questions) have not become any more clear
in this forecast cycle. Mesoscale convective complexes are
inherently difficult to forecast other than the ingredients to
suggest their development. So confidence remains high in the
formation of strong to severe thunderstorms in southern Canada
Tuesday afternoon/evening but not the specific timing and location.
There is some consensus, especially among convection allowing
models, that the cap will remain strong through sunset with a low
chance of thunderstorms in our region through that time. Thereafter,
solutions split quite a bit with the track of clusters of
thunderstorms, tracking south/southeastward through either or both
of southern Ontario towards northern New York, and southern Quebec
tracking into northern Vermont, roughly between 8 PM and 2 AM.
Given the high shear environment and instability that will be in
place, ample storm relative helicity will support well-
organized storm modes with a combination of supercell and linear
segments expected. Earlier timing of storms reaching our area
will support a higher risk of severe storms There also is
potential for torrential rainfall rates given very high PWAT and
warm cloud depths with sufficiently high MUCAPE. Additionally,
heavy rainfall footprints/training of storms could occur given
anomalous deep moisture transport and convergence along a
boundary oriented from west-northwest to east-southeast.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Thursday looks to be a pleasant summer day across the
region as dry mid-level and incoming cooler air bring seasonable
conditions. High temperatures are expected to climb into the upper
70s to mid 80s, feeling quite enjoyable with dewpoints in the 50s. A
shower or two may be possible across northern Vermont as a shortwave
moves through, but given the abundance of dry air meaningful
precipitation is not expected. As we head towards the very end of
the week into the weekend, there is increased uncertainty in the
weather pattern and what to expect. Given the colder air mass and
influence of an upper level troughing centered over the Canadian
Maritimes, seasonable temperatures are expected, with some days
possibly below normal. Precipitation chances are more uncertain,
with model guidance all over the place in regards to the timing of
any boundaries and limited moisture available. The current forecast
shows some slight chances for showers throughout the week,
particularly on Saturday into Sunday when more guidance supports a
frontal boundary moving through the region, but trends may change as
we progress through the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions will continue to prevail across
all terminals throughout the forecast period. Mostly clear skies
will continue through the afternoon, with some fair weather cumulus
continuing to develop off the higher terrain, with cloud bases
generally between 5000 and 7000 ft AGL. Winds this afternoon are
generally north to northwesterly, less than 10 knots, although wind
direction has been variable at times. Winds overnight will generally
trend calm or terrain influenced. After another dry day, fog
potential is even more limited overnight than the previous days, so
have left any mention of fog out of the forecast for now.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
High temperatures on Tuesday will be hot, but we are at the
climatological warmest part of the year. Therefore, it is far
from a certainty that any records will occur. At this time, PBG,
MPV, and MSS are the more likely long-term climate sites to
set a record. See below for current records:
Max Temp Records
Date BTV MPV MSS PBG SLK
07-14 100|1995 94|1952 92|2012 95|1952 95|1934
High Min Temp Records
DatePBG
07-14 70|1974
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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