570
FXUS61 KBTV 101839
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
139 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Another widespread light snow event with some wintry mix will
develop tonight, and slippery travel is expected. Snow showers
tomorrow will transition into northwesterly upslope snowfall
tomorrow night. Thereafter, active weather will continue as
temperatures go from a bit above normal through midweek to much
colder late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 101 PM EST Saturday...
**A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for western Essex
 County of New York as well as eastern Rutland and western
 Windsor counties of Vermont. **This Advisory will begin at 5 PM
 today and continue until 10 AM tomorrow (Sunday).
**A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain tonight will
 trend towards snow by daybreak Sunday.
** Snow accumulations up to 3 inches and ice accumulations of
 up to one tenth of an inch.
**Travel is expected to be especially slick on bridges and
 overpasses, as well as at higher elevations.

High pressure is currently stationed over southern Vermont this
afternoon while vertically stacked low pressure can be located in
southwestern Ontario, Canada/northeastern Minnesota. A surface low
pressure can also be identified in the southeastern United States
this afternoon. The Canadian/Minnesotan low pressure is
expected to twist across the Great Lakes tonight, potentially
merging with a surface low coming from the Ohio Valley, then
crossing into Quebec, Canada, early tomorrow morning. At the
same time, the low in the Southeast looks likely to drive north
and east, strengthening along the New Jersey Coast and southern
New England.

What this means for us in northern New York and Vermont is
increasing chances for precipitation this evening and early tonight
as well as warming aloft in southerly flow. Precipitation type will
be messy with snow, rain, sleet, and freezing rain all possible.
Though the roads were slick this morning as pavement temperatures
fell below freezing, air temperatures have remained fairly mild with
surface observations coming in above 32 F this afternoon. Due to
this, the first burst of precipitation may be any number of
precipitation combinations as the surface air struggles to cool.

Most likely precip types to start:
- Rain in areas where temperatures stay mild
- Snow in areas that experience sufficient wet bulb cooling

Less likely but still possible:
- Freezing rain...some models indicate surface temperatures
  falling below freezing with the sunset and wet bulb cooling
  while milder air persists just above the surface in southerly
  flow.

Then, warmer air at the 800mb level is expected to arrive, producing
a more likely period of sleet or freezing rain moving southwest to
northeast where the surface remains cold. The locations this occurs
will be mostly cold pockets/hollows of the Greens and at higher
elevations. For most spots, however, models are hinting at
precipitation types changing over to rain quickly in the wider
valleys and changing over to snow elsewhere with model surface
temperatures trending higher and rapidly eliminating the warm nose.
By the early morning hours tomorrow, most models show cold air
working its way into a good portion of the lower levels of the
atmosphere, changing all precipitation types over to widespread snow
with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Dry air flows in quickly at
the same time with both sources of forcing (low pressures) off to
our northwest and southeast, placing us in a dry slot, likely
resulting in brief snowflakes on the back end of the system but
mostly dry weather for tomorrow morning.

The Canadian low does drift close enough near our international
border tomorrow afternoon into the evening to bring some scattered
breezy snow showers to the forecast area. We are monitoring the
potential for snow squalls that afternoon and evening, but favorable
ingredients for this hazard are not lining up well at the moment.
Instability looks meager and there`s no clear sign of a surface
frontal boundary to assist in forcing. Highs Sunday will be in the
30s for most, roughly 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Some
upslope snow is likely Sunday night, but snow growth zone moisture
wanes throughout the night. This event does not look particularly
notable for snowfall due to how quickly deep moisture departs with
low pressure moving into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The mountains
could pick up an additional 1-5 inches of snow. Northwesterly winds
do look to pick up overnight, however, which could blow around snow
and cause visibility issues in spots. Sunday night will also be much
cooler than tonight is expected to be with lows in the teens to
lower 20s and wind chills as low as -5 to 15 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 138 PM EST Saturday...A weak 700-500mb vorticity lobe amd
associated axis of 850-500mb rh>70% wl produce a period of snow
showers late Monday into Monday night. System is very weak and
moisture is limited, so not anticipating much impacts or snow
accumulation, maybe an inch or two in the mountains. West to
southwest 850mb flow of 25 to 35 knots wl result in some shadowing
acrs the CPV and parts of the CT River Valley during this period of
light precip. Progged 850mb temps in the -8C to -10C range on Monday
support near normal highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Clouds and
winds should keep temps steady on Monday night in the 20s to near
30F locally in the CPV. Tuesday is quiet as our next clipper like
system approaches the SLV by 21z. As southerly flow and modest waa
develops ahead of our next system, progged 925mb temps warm btwn -2C
and -4C, supporting highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s on Tues.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 138 PM EST Saturday...An active period of weather anticipated
with development of highly amplified pattern acrs the CONUS and
temps trending back below normal by late next week. For Weds,
initial clipper like system wl pass to our north, but strengthening
925mb to 850mb wind fields wl advect deeper moisture and warm air
into our region. Did increase winds acrs the higher trrn and
favorable areas of the SLV and northern CPV on Weds associated with
850mb winds of 35 to 50 knots and 925mb winds of 30 to 45 knots.
Given the initial sfc low tracking to our north and west, precip
fields wl be influenced by trrn with some shadowing likely acrs the
CPV and parts of the CT River Valley late Tues night into Weds. Did
utilize the pop from climo tool to highlight higher pops in the
dacks and portions of the central/northern Green Mtns. Given warm
southerly flow and increasing clouds/moisture temps wl hold in the
30s, except 20s east of the Greens on Tues night, before warming
into the upper 30s to mid 40s on Weds, supported by progged 925mb
temps near 0C. Best probability of an inch or two of snow wl be late
Tues into Weds above 2000 feet, given our warm thermal profiles.

Large scale pattern becomes a bit more interesting late Weds into
late week as guidance indicates the development of a deep full
latitude mid/upper lvl trof acrs the MS Valley into the Great Lakes.
Potent s/w energy wl be dropping into the base of the trof late Weds
into Thurs, while thermal gradient/baroclinicity zone tightens acrs
the East Coast. This energy aloft and tightening thermal gradient wl
support cyclogenesis to develop acrs the lee-side of the Appalachians
Mtns by Thurs. However, mid/upper lvl trof axis remains positively
tilted and lingering closed circulation acrs eastern Canada, looks
to deflect sfc low pres and best moisture/lift to our south and east
late next week. This general idea is supported by the latest
GFS/ECMWF, along with the AI versions of both models. Ensemble data
still shows a rather large spread and given the complex mid/upper
lvl trof evolution and numerous embedded s/w`s, some shifts in track
and development are likely in the upcoming days. Also, the position
of a banana shaped high pres to our northwest wl be advecting colder
and drier air into our cwa, on developing brisk northerly flow. For
now have kept most of the pops in the schc/chc range in the days 5
thru 7 time frame, as supported by the NBM. Confidence is higher
with regards to temps trending back below normal, as northern stream
jet and modified arctic airmass is progged to move back acrs our cwa
by late week. Highs behind the sharp cold frnt drop back into the
mid teens to mid 20s Thurs and Friday with lows in the single digits
and lower teens.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Currently VFR conditions at all sites
except some lingering MVFR cigs at MSS, which should lift in the
next 1 to 2 hours. A wintry mix of precipitation will quickly
develop btwn 23-01z across our taf sites this evening with MVFR
vis and cigs likely. The greatest potential for a snow/sleet
mixture with IFR visibilities will be at EFK/PBG/MPV and MSS
with mostly a rain/sleet combination at BTV/SLK and RUT. A light
icing is possible at any airport, given surface temperatures
hovering near freezing. As precipitation departs our terminals
between 05z-08z, a period of low clouds with IFR cigs are likely
at many sites, before improving conditions develop by mid to
late morning on Sunday. Strengthening low level wind fields at
1500 to 4500 feet above ground level will enhance areas of low
level wind shear and turbulence overnight into Sunday. Surface
winds are generally east/southeast at 5 to 15 knots overnight,
but eventually shift to the west/southwest on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for VTZ019-020.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for NYZ034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV