552
FXUS61 KBTV 111856
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
256 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 231 PM EDT Thursday...
Forecast is on track with building heat and thunderstorms
possible this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 231 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Building heat and humidity will impact the region with
potentially dangerous conditions today in Windsor County and
more widespread for Friday.
2. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today with
a cold front potentially bringing stronger thunderstorms Friday
afternoon.
3. More seasonable temperatures are expected for next week,
with additional chances for showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 231 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Current temperatures as of 2 PM range from upper
70s in the Northeast Kingdom up to around 90 degrees in the
southern Champlain valley and northern Connecticut river valley.
Heat index values are pushing into the lower 90s in some spots.
Some showers and a few thunderstorms may form this afternoon
limiting max temperatures slightly. Tomorrow, temperatures will
be even warmer as 925mb temps rise in the 23-27C range. Ridging
will be sufficient to cap morning/early afternoon convection
from the Champlain Valley eastward, so heat indices are expected
to climb into the mid/upper 90s for the Champlain Valley and
portions of the Connecticut River Valley. Heat advisory for
parts of the region remains in place, see NPW for further info.
KEY MESSAGE 2: We continue to expect isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening hours. Thus far,
not much upstream to look at, though there are some signals of
clouds bubbling up. With high temperatures and dewpoints this
afternoon, shouldn`t take too much to get some storms going.
Not anticipating as much coverage as last night. A few of these
storms could be heavy rainers with 1.5+inches of PWAT and
expected slow movement.
Friday should be busier than today. Temperatures will be quite
warm in the afternoon once again. CAPE will build beneath a
capping inversion until a cold front sweeps through the region.
Shear will increase to around 30kts supporting more favorable
dynamics for organized convection. Shear coupled with 1500 to
potentially 2500 J/kg CAPE will support at least isolated
stronger variety thunderstorms. SPC also has most of the region
under a Slight risk of severe thunderstorms given heat,
moisture, and a good triggering mechanism. While storms are
expected to be moving, some locations that have received heavy
rainfall may be susceptible to flooding. This will be especially
true for areas where roads have washed out.
KEY MESSAGE 3: As we head into the beginning of next week,
temperatures look to trend back towards seasonable normals after
a stretch of hot and humid weather as a weak upper level trough
shunts the warmer air to the south. High temperatures for next
week look to generally be in the 70s to lower 80s across the
region, with dewpoints generally in the 40s and 50s making it
feel much more comfortable than the current weather. A few
chances of diurnally driven showers and possibly a thunderstorm
will be possible afternoon with the upper level trough and
cooler air aloft, but exact timing and location will be
difficult to pinpoint, although no day looks to be a complete
washout at this point.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions currently prevail across
all terminals this afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible later this afternoon and evening, but exact
timing and location of any convective showers is quite tricky to
pin down, with PROB30 groups used to highlight the most likely
time period of any showers, although confidence is fairly low on
whether terminals will be impacted. Outside of any showers, VFR
conditions should prevail for much of the evening. Tonight,
some lower ceilings and mist/fog development will be possible,
especially depending on any rainfall this evening. Greater
confidence in any MVFR or lower is across northern New York
tonight, but there is potential at other terminals like KEFK.
Winds will generally be light and terrain driven throughout the
forecast period.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
June 11:
KMPV: 88/2017
June 12:
KBTV: 94/2017
KMPV: 88/2017
KPBG: 94/2017
KMSS: 89/2005
KSLK: 90/1933
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 11:
KBTV: 71/2017
KPBG: 70/1976
KSLK: 66/1984
June 12:
KBTV: 71/2017
KPBG: 67/2017
KSLK: 62/1996
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ001-002-005-
009-011-021.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ021.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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