403
FXUS61 KBTV 301117
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
617 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers will continue today and tonight, remaining
mostly focused in the higher elevations. Otherwise, cold and breezy
today with highs only in the single digits and teens. Our next
chance of more widespread snow arrives New Years Eve, with most
areas seeing 1 to 3 inches of snow by daybreak New Years Day.
Seasonably cold weather continues into the New Year along with
occasional chances for mountain snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 523 AM EST Tuesday...Snow showers continue across the
region this morning, particularly in the Adirondacks and
northern Greens/Northeast Kingdom. Seeing a few light flurries
in locations such as Rutland and even here at BTV from time to
time, so expanded slight chance PoPs a bit this morning to
indicate some isolated shower activity. Otherwise, breezy and
cold today; tweaked temperatures and winds/gusts to match the
latest trends. Otherwise the forecast is in good shape and no
other changes were needed.

Previous discussion...A potent upper low continues to spin just
south of James Bay early this morning. This feature will slowly
shift eastward today and tonight, eventually lifting north of the
Gaspe Peninsula by early Wednesday morning. Hence we`ll remain under
cyclonic flow today and tonight. Cold air advection will persist
today on brisk west winds and anticipate temperatures will likely
fall through mid morning or so before becoming steady or perhaps
warming just a bit this afternoon. Scattered snow showers will
continue through the day and overnight tonight, mainly on the
favored western upslope sides of the Adirondacks and
northern/central Greens. A few inches of accumulation can be
expected, mainly above 1000 ft. Cold air advection and steep low
level lapse rates will allow for efficient mixing, and gusts of 25
to 35 mph are expected through today, and wouldn`t be surprised to
see occasional higher gusts on the downslope sides of the higher
terrain. These winds combined with highs only in the single digits
and teens will make for a very cold day. Wind chills will will stay
within the -5F to -15F range through the day and into tonight, while
the higher summits will likely see wind chills of -20F to -40F. Snow
showers will gradually wane overnight as moisture decreases, but the
cold will persist. Lows tonight will be in the single digits above
and below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 116 AM EST Tuesday...Our next shot of widespread snow arrives
New Year`s Eve as a shortwave trough rotates around the
aforementioned upper low positioned to our northeast, while the
surface low moves directly over region. The day starts out dry, with
a lake effect band of Ontario pointed to our south on west winds.
However, winds will shift toward the southwest by afternoon/evening
Wednesday, lifting this lake effect band into central/southern VT
and the Adirondacks. This will also help to enhance moisture with
the incoming clipper system. Precipitation will spread from west to
east Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. While details are
still a bit tough to nail down, a band of moderate to perhaps
briefly heavy snow looks to develop downwind of Lake Ontario during
the evening, stretching from the Adirondacks into the
northern/central Champlain Valley and into the northern Greens. This
feature will line up with an incoming cold front favorable
frontogenesis, though instability will be lacking given the timing.
Unfortunately, right now timing looks to be right around midnight
for areas from the central Adirondacks eastward through the
Champlain Valley and northern VT, which could make for some tricky
New Years Eve travel. Exact snowfall amounts will depend on where
the band sets up and/or how quickly it makes forward progress, but
for now, expect a fairly widespread 1 to 2 inches of snow Wednesday
and Wednesday night, with higher amounts of 2 to 4+ where/if the
band develops. Temperatures drop sharply behind the front, so after
daytime highs in the mid teens to mid 20s, temperatures will once
again dip into the single digits above and below zero by daybreak
New Year`s Day.

Snow will come to a quick end early Thursday morning, so expect the
New Year will start out dry. But it will be yet another cold day,
with highs once again in the single digits to mid/upper teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 116 AM EST Tuesday...Broad cyclonic flow will dominate our
region`s weather for the end of the work week and through the
weekend with periods of snow showers expected. No major storm
systems are anticipated, with the best chances for accumulating snow
being across the higher terrain and areas downwind of Lake Ontario
Thursday night into early Saturday. Conditions will also be quite
breezy on mountaintops during this period as mid/upper level wave
energy moves overhead.

High pressure will likely dominate the weather pattern only briefly
Sunday night before surface low pressure dives across the Great
Lakes early next week, bringing renewed chances of precipitation.
Temperatures will be average about 10-15 degrees below normal late
this week into the first half of next week, with highs mainly in the
single digits to low 20s, and lows in the single digits above and
below zero.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Scattered snow showers will continue
today and tonight, remaining mostly focused in the higher
elevations as upper level low pressure spins just south of James
Bay. Otherwise, cold and breezy today due to cold air advection
and efficient atmospheric mixing.

For BTV, PBG, MPV, MSS, and RUT, the next 24 hours will be
dominated by northwesterly to westerly wind gusts 20-35 knots
and primarily VFR conditions, though ceilings could hover around
2500-3500 feet and cloud cover is likely to flip flop between
BKN and SCT at times through around 00Z-06Z Wednesday. Towards
06Z-12Z Wednesday, we`ll even see winds decreasing enough to
drop gusts from the forecast in some spots, drifting
southwesterly. Snow showers will be few and far between, and
generally light if they do occur.

For SLK and EFK, however, the next 24 hours will feature
persistent snow showers producing visibilities below 4-5 miles
for much of the time through around 00Z Wednesday. IFR vis
most persistent at SLK. Westerly to southwesterly wind gusts
will remain 20-30 knots for the majority of the TAF period at
these two sites. Ceilings are expected to remain below 3000
feet through about 00Z-03Z Wednesday. At SLK, we are
anticipating LLWS beyond 03Z Wednesday as a potent low level jet
lifts northwards through the Adirondacks.


Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
New Years Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
Sustained winds in the 15-30 kt range are expected to continue
today into the overnight hours tonight. Waves will stay on the
lower side due to the westerly component of the wind, so they
are only expected to reach the 1-3 foot range for most places,
though approaching 4 ft on the eastern side of the broad lake.
Winds will drop to around 10 kt by late tonight night and waves
will drop to around and below a foot.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
MARINE...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV