034
FXUS61 KBTV 281840
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
140 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers will continue through this evening, with the
highest coverage in the upslope areas. High pressure briefly builds
in for tomorrow before the next storm system arrives for Sunday and
Sunday night. It looks to bring light snow accumulations to most
areas, with a potential change to rain in the valleys. An active
wintry weather pattern will continue behind it to kick off December.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1258 PM EST Friday...Scattered snow showers have developed
across the region and they will persist through the evening. While
they will be most concentrated in the typical upslope areas, there
will be deep enough instability that they will make their way down
into the valleys at times. Dry air in the lowest levels will cause
some sublimation, but the heavier snow showers will easily reach the
ground. The heaviest snow showers could briefly could contain rates
up to around an inch per hour and will dramatically reduce
visibilities, but they will not be strong or organized enough to
become squalls. The higher terrain should see couple inches, though
totals will increase heading north along the spine of the Greens.
The most favored areas around Jay Peak could see up to around a
foot. Unblocked flow will favor accumulations on and just downwind
of the summits, and strong winds will help push the snow east. Winds
will gust in the 15 to 35 mph range today, with the highest gusts
expected over parts of northern New York.

Ridging briefly builds in for Saturday and Saturday night, putting
an end to the upslope snow. Skies should gradually clear during the
day, and the clearing should even reach the Northeast kingdom by the
end of the day. However, by this point, high clouds will be
beginning to enter the region out ahead of the next storm system.
There looks to be a brief period where there will be somewhat clear
skies and relatively calm winds for the first half of Saturday
night, and temperatures could quickly fall if the boundary layer
decouples. Lower clouds and stronger boundary layer winds will
arrive later in the night and end the temperatures decreases for
most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1258 PM EST Friday...A fast moving storm system will track
right up the St. Lawrence Valley Sunday into Sunday night, bringing
another round of precipitation. It looks to start as a quick period
of snow for everywhere Sunday morning before a strong southwesterly
low-level jet arrives. The jet will cause downsloping and mostly end
the snow in the broad valleys. It will also cause strong warm air
advection and raise temperatures in the valleys a few degrees above
freezing. This will likely turn any precipitation there over to
rain, while it stays cold enough in the higher terrain to remain
snow. As cold air moves in on the backside, precipitation changes
back to snow but by that point, dry air will quickly infiltrate and
put an end to the precipitation. A rough estimate of the snow levels
during the warmest part of the system is around 1,500-2,000 feet,
but that will likely still need to be refined. Accumulations of a
couple inches are likely outside the valleys. The strong low level
jet will cause gusty winds. Mixing should be able to occur pretty
well in the dry slot, and gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range are
looking possible. Channeling and downsloping in the Champlain Valley
may cause locally higher winds, with soundings indicating 50 KTs is
possible at the top of the mixed layer.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 139 PM EST Friday...Still watching for the potential for an
accumulating snowfall late Tues into Weds, followed by arctic
boundary with snow showers late Weds into Thurs. The long term
starts out quiet and dry with 1031mb sfc high pres over the NEK at
00z Tues. This wl allow temps to fall quickly on Monday night with
some colder locations approaching 0F by midnight, before clouds and
winds increase ahead of our next system and temps warm toward
morning. Highs Monday range from the upper teens to upper 20s, with
lows in the single digits to mid teens on Monday night.

Mid/upper lvl full latitude trof sharpens on Tuesday as potent s/w
energy dives acrs the MS River Valley and makes the turn toward the
central Appalachian Mtns, while weak 1008mb low pres develops over
the northern Gulf. Position of cold sfc high pres over northern New
England, wl help to enhance llvl CAD along the eastern side of the
Appalachian Mtns, which should strengthen thermal gradient and aid
in sfc low pres development near Delmarva by 18z Tues. The
challenging part of the fcst still remains the exact track of sfc
low pres late Tues into Weds, with still a large spread btwn
operational runs and latest ensemble data. The mid/upper lvl pattern
remains very progressive and rather flat, which would suggest a
faster/flatter area of sfc low pres. This general idea is supported
by many of the GFS ensemble members, along with the latest runs of
the ECMWF/GEM and UKMET, while GFS/ICON are stronger with potential
greater impacts acrs our cwa. For now have continued with low likely
pops btwn 18z Tues and 06z Weds, with highest potential acrs our
central/eastern and southern cwa, while less near the International
Border.

The 13Z NBM in DESI (Dynamic Ensemble-based Scenarios for IDSS)
indicates 30 to 40% probability of 24 hour snowfall >4" acrs our
central/southern cwa, while < 15% near the International Border. The
NBM probability of reaching winter storm warning criteria of 7" is
20 to 30% over Rutland/Windsor Counties and <5% near the border,
indicating advisory level type event is possible acrs our
central/southern cwa for Tues/Weds time frame attm. The probability
of max temp staying below 32F during the event is >90% acrs our
entire cwa, supporting high confidence of an all snow event. As
always any shift north or south would have some impacts on northern
extent of snow shield, but for now it looks like mostly a southern
New England/Mid Atlantic State event with our cwa on the northern
edge. Highs mostly in the 20s to near 30F both Tues and Weds with
lows holding steady in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Signals in the large scale synoptic pattern are increasing for an
arctic boundary and associates snow showers/snow squalls late Weds
into Thurs. The progged sfc analysis indicates a sharp convergence
with tight isotherms/thickness packing on backside associated
moderate to strong llvl caa. This boundary interacting with potent
northern stream energy and instability would support the idea of
snow showers and embedded snow squalls associated with the boundary.
Timing of frontal passage and magnitude trof development wl
determine how robust activity can become. Otherwise, much below
normal temps are likely for Thurs into Friday as progged 850mb temps
are near or below -20C.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Crntly a wide range in flight categories
from VFR at PBG/BTV to MVFR at MPV/EFK/MSS and IFR/LIFR at
RUT/SLK in convective type snow showers. The forecast for the
next 6 hours will be to tempo IFR vis 1-2SM at SLK/MPV/EFK with
MVFR cigs and utilize PROB30 groups for our valley sites of
RUT/BTV/PBG and MSS, where probability of IFR conditions is less
likely to occur. Greatest potential for consistent intervals of
IFR vis in snow shower activity will be at SLK/MPV and EFK thru
this evening, before activity slowly dissipates toward
midnight. Gusty west to northwest winds will continue at 15 to
30 knots, with areas of turbulence and wind shear likely
prevailing through the evening hours. Conditions slowly improve
to a combination of VFR valleys to a mix of MVFR/VFR mtn taf
sites by Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SN, Definite SHRA, Definite SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds have gradually transitioned to westerly, and
they will trend to northwesterly this afternoon. Wind speeds
will remain elevated for the next 18 hours or so. Sustained
winds will generally be in the 15 to 30 KT range and peak gusts
will be to around 35 KTs. Waves will likely remain about 2 to 4
feet, before decreasing quickly tomorrow.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at Colchester Reef will likely leave it
inoperable for an extended period of time. This site is not
serviced by the NWS. Its technicians currently do not have an
estimated return to service time. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain, and please
contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV