077
FXUS61 KBTV 091331
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
831 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
After a cold start to the morning, temperatures will quickly rise
today as southerly flow develops. Widespread light snowfall will
move through tomorrow into tomorrow night, with accumulations
generally expected to be in the two to five inch range. The colder
and active pattern will continue into next week with a few
additional chances for snow, though no big snowstorms are expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 830 AM EST Tuesday...Just sending out a quick update here
to update hourly temps and dew points. It`s quite cold out
there, and we want to make sure those heading out this morning
are prepared for the frigid temperatures and wind chills. Stay
warm!
Previous discussion...Mostly ideal radiational conditions have
developed tonight, causing temperatures to drop quickly.
Everywhere outside the areas immediately along Lake Champlain
have fallen below 0, with many areas outside the broad valleys
around and below -10. Temperatures will drop a few more degrees
in most places before the night is over. While southerly flow
will begin to develop late in the night, it should not have a
significant effect on impeding the radiational cooling. While
this cold is uncommon for the time of year, it is not
unprecedented. Plattsburgh looks to have broken two record lows
already. It was
-11 right at 1159/1200, breaking the -7 record on 12/08 and the
-10 record on 12/09. The cold temperatures and relatively light
winds have allowed a lake cloud to develop on the mostly
unfrozen Lake Champlain. It has formed over the southern waters
and it will gradually expand northward as the night goes on. It
may move into areas adjacent to the lake in the early morning.
Increased southerly flow and associated mixing/drying, along
with warming temperatures, should cause it to dissipate during
the day. An area of warm air advection aloft will move through
this evening and cause a period of light snow. Very dry low
levels will likely cause a lot of it to evaporate before it
reaches the ground, but there should still be some very light
snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 137 AM EST Tuesday...A quick moving storm system moves through
Wednesday and Wednesday night, tracking up the St. Lawrence Valley.
Warm air advection should cause a quick period of moderate to heavy
snow on the front end. Here, snowfall rates could briefly reach
around an inch per hour. The snow will become lighter for the rest
of the day and into the night, and a dry slot moves in for the
evening. Strong southwesterly winds will cause downsloping and
mostly end the precipitation in the Champlain and Connecticut
valleys in the afternoon. Gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range are
possible in the Champlain Valley as enough of a southerly component
and an inversion below ridgetops should allow for efficient
channeling. Temperatures will rise slightly above freezing in the
broad valleys, but steep lapse rates should mostly keep the
precipitation snow. As the center of the low passes to the east,
northwest flow develops and it should cause a brief period of
upslope snow Wednesday night. Overall, totals in the two to five
inch range are generally expected. The lake effect band should stay
to the south of our northern New York zones, though the moisture
will still enhance totals in the central and southern Greens. Drier
conditions should prevail during the day Thursday, but moisture
looks to back down from the north and reinvigorate the upslope snow
in the evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 137 AM EST Tuesday...Primary highlights for the long term
include upslope snow showers on Thurs night into Friday, another
light snow event on the weekend, followed by another very cold
airmass late Sunday into early next week. First item wl be a classic
upslope fluff event on Thurs night into Friday, as progged 850mb
temps fall btwn -12F and -20F with lingering 925mb to 500mb rh >70%.
Latest GFS/ECMWF show the closed 700/500mb circulation becoming
vertically stacked just north of the International Border, which
should promote favorable 925mb to 850mb winds of 25 to 40 knots,
resulting in additional upslope accumulating snowfall thru Thurs
night. Have bumped pops into the high likely range for Thurs night
with additional accumulations of 2 to 4 inches of fluff, but
localized 4 to 6 inches possible from Mansfield to Jay Peak. We will
continue to monitor depth of moisture to fine tune snowfall amounts,
but moderately strong caa should help squeeze out remaining moisture
in the mtns. Next fast moving clipper like system associated with
positively tilted mid/upper lvl trof arrives late Sat into Sun. Did
note the 00z ECMWF is a bit more aggressive with sharpening trof and
develops a slightly stronger area of sfc low pres along the mid
Atlantic into southern New England. The GFS/UKMET and CMC show more
of a clipper like system with a period of light snow late Sat into
Sunday, followed by another very cold airmass late Sunday into early
next week. This airmass looks to be associated with bitterly cold
wind chill values as progged 850mb temps drop btwn -22F and -25F
with gusty northwest winds. Cold headlines are likely needed for
Sunday night into Monday. This wl be an advection type of cold on
Sunday night, followed by radiational cooling on Monday night into
Tues with building sfc high pres. Given latest trends additional
lowering of temps is likely on Sunday through Tuesday of next week,
where highs may struggle to reach 10F in many spots on Monday, with
values well below zero again on both Sunday and Monday nights. Cold
air wl help to squeeze out a few upslope snow showers on Sunday into
Sunday night, before column becomes too dry.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...GOES 19 IR satl and radar shows lake
enhanced clouds and flurries impacting the central/northern CPV
at this time. Based on crnt trends this activity should not
impact either PBG or BTV this morning. Also, watching some lower
clouds with MVFR cigs near KART, which may impact SLK for a few
hours this morning, otherwise VFR conditions prevail at all
sites thru 00z. Light snow with a trend toward MVFR vis and VFR
cigs develops around 00z MSS and spreads into the CPV taf sites
between 01-03z this evening. Mostly MVFR vis, but briefly
heavier snow shower activity may produce 20 to 30 minutes of
IFR, greatest potential is at SLK. Light snow end by 06z, with
additional IFR light snow developing by 12z Weds at MSS. South
to southwest winds increase 5 to 15 knots with localized gusts
15 to 20 knots this aftn.
Outlook...
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Storm
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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