762
FXUS61 KBTV 120223
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1023 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds turn northerly this evening after a cold front moves
through the North Country bringing some mountain showers and a sharp
cooling trend back below freezing overnight. After some more light
snow chances across central and southern Vermont Wednesday night,
very warm temperatures return for the end of the week through the
weekend. Widespread snowmelt is expected at all elevations which
will lead to river rises and ice movement before rain chances
increase late in the weekend which could lead to some river flooding
should heavier amounts fall.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1017 PM EDT Tuesday...A cold front passed through the
region this evening and put a (probably temporary) end to the
record breaking warm temperatures. Temperatures should be below
freezing across northern areas by a few hours after midnight,
though it will take until around sunrise for the subfreezing
temperatures to reach the lower elevations of southern Vermont,
if they make it there at all. The cold air has been lagging
behind guidance by a couple hours, but despite that,
temperatures have still been falling quickly. Any showers
related to the front that were able to make it to the ground in
the Northeast Kingdom are done, though a brief upslope sprinkle
or flurry cannot be completely ruled out at some point tonight.
Previous Discussion...Gusty 25-35mph southerly winds this
afternoon helped temperatures reach 63 degrees at the BTV
Airport for the first time since last November. However, winds
will start turning westerly ahead of a cold front that will
sweep north to south through the North Country this evening.
While the thermal gradient is quite strong, upper level support
is racing northeastward limiting synoptic lift across the
boundary. Still, some light QPF is likely, especially for higher
terrain of the northern Green Mountains. Temperatures will drop
quickly late this evening and overnight with flow turning
northerly. Winds decrease in earnest after midnight with gusts
around/less than 20 mph helping cold air advection dip lows into
the upper teens to low/mid 20s. Conditions will be cooler
tomorrow under light northerly flow with highs generally ranging
from the mid/upper 20s along the Canadian border to the upper
30s to near 40s for lower elevations towards Rutland/Windsor
counties. A system passing south of Vermont will have some
isentropic lift Wednesday night allowing for light snowfall
mainly across central/southern Vermont, but supporting flow and
moisture advection are progged to become increasingly disrupted
by some weak development of a surface trough along the offshore
baroclinic zone. As such, trended precipitation chances and QPF
downward with only a dusting to less than an inch now possible.
Temperatures dip back below freezing Wednesday night with lows
ranging form the upper teens to upper 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 347 PM EDT Tuesday...Any lingering precipitation will quickly
diminish by Thursday morning, with mostly dry weather in store for
the day, although clouds look to linger around for most of the day.
Our warming temperature trend will resume on Thursday as southerly
flow ushers in warmer air, with afternoon high temperatures climbing
into the 40s. Overnight lows Thursday night will also be on the mild
side, with temperatures only falling into the upper 20s to low 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 347 PM EDT Tuesday...The sharp warming trend is expected to
continue through the remainder of the week into the weekend as the
region remains under warm southerly flow throughout the period. High
temperatures on Friday will generally be in the upper 40s and 50s,
with temperatures in the 60s expected by Sunday. Overnight lows will
also be quite mild, with temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s for
the weekend. These warmer temperatures and dewpoints will work away
at the snow pack, leading to significant snowmelt across the region.
An upper level trough and associated cold front will bring the next
chances for widespread precipitation to the region this weekend.
Rainfall looks to arrive Saturday night into Sunday, with the
steadiest rainfall expected Sunday/Sunday night. Ensemble guidance
generally supports around 0.5 to 0.75 inches of of rain, although
there are a few members that suggest locally higher amounts are
possible. The potential for river flooding due to ice jams and/or
combination of snowmelt/rainfall is increasing, but there is still
some uncertainty in precipitation amounts and timing of river rises.
For more details see the Hydrology section below.
Widespread precipitation will come to an end Monday as the front
pushes out, with just a few lingering mountain showers expected.
Temperatures will be much more seasonable early next week, with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s to low 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...A cold front is currently passing through the
region form northwest to southeast. Ahead of the front, winds are
generally southwesterly or westerly, and behind it, they are
northwesterly. The front will be through the region before midnight
and winds should therefore be northwesterly at all terminals by
then. Winds will generally diminish as the night goes on and into
the day tomorrow, and they should mostly be light by tomorrow
evening. There is the chance of a few snow showers at RUT late in
the day tomorrow, but other than that, conditions should be VFR
everywhere for the next 24 hours.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN, Slight chance FZRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A sharp warming trend is expected for the end of the week into the
weekend, with strong southerly winds and increasing dewpoints
promoting significant snowmelt. River rises and ice movement are
anticipated. A lot of ice on area rivers shows evidence of becoming
more rotten and/or deteriorated with a few ice jams currently in
place after the recent thaw last week. The potential for river
flooding due to ice jams and/or combination of snowmelt/rainfall is
increasing, but there is still some uncertainty in precipitation
amounts and timing of river rises. Ensemble river models indicate
sharp rises on rivers are likely, though precise river flood stages
that mainstem rivers may reach will depend on how temperatures and
rainfall amounts shape up over the next several days. Considering
persistent trends and the magnitude of the warm up, it is good idea
to go over your plans concerning river flooding.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Myskowski
HYDROLOGY...Kremer
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