495
FXUS61 KBTV 121846
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
146 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Upslope snow showers will eventually taper off this afternoon and
evening, leading to a brief dry period lasting into tomorrow
morning. A clipper will bring snow showers and a brief lake effect
band for Saturday and Sunday. The colder and active pattern will
continue for a few more days, with a few additional chances for
snow, though no big snowstorms are expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 143 PM EST Friday...While upslope snow is still ongoing along
the north and central Green Mountains, snow showers have begun to
taper off across the Adirondacks, with the northern Greens tapering
off by later this afternoon. Additional snow through this evening
will only be up 2 inches, mainly confined to the immediate vicinity
of Jay Peak. Winds will remain on the breezy side this afternoon
before weakening towards midnight. Gusts up to 20-25 mph are still
likely for at least a few more hours today. As deep layer moisture
retreats to the northeast some shallow moisture may become trapped
under an inversion tonight, especially in areas with open water
ponds and lakes, which could lead to some localized patchy fog,
though the coverage of such fog will be minimal and is left out of
the current weather grids. Brief ridging will move over the area
tonight, but cloud cover will remain on the broken to overcast side
for most locations which should help reduce the effects of
raditional cooling. Overnight lows will fall to the single digits
5-10F with mid teens in the locations around the unfrozen portions
of Lake Champlain.
A transient clipper will slide east into the region by Saturday with
more southwesterly flow. A passing weak warm front will lead to some
open wave energy across portions of eastern Vermont Saturday,
subsequently leading to some scattered chances of light snow around
noon. A dusting to a quick coating is possible. Further west into
the St. Lawrence Valley, southwest flow with marginal instability
will help a brief weak lake effect snow band develop off Lake
Ontario early Saturday morning. With instability weak, and marginal
surface temperatures, the band will be strongest closer to Lake
Ontario, with only a localized 1-3" of snow possible in extreme
southern St. Lawrence County. Some periodic gusts up to 20 mph will
also accompany the lake effect band. The band peaks by midday
Saturday and will shift south quickly by the afternoon. This band
shift will be the result of a passing cold front during the daytime
hours on Saturday. While moisture starved, models do show some
instability, around 100 J/kg of CAPE, with marginal convergence. A
light to moderate band of snow showers, with a chance for some
embedded snow squalls is possible. However, the conducive thermal
profiles and dynamics of the environment drop off rapidly as the
boundary slides east into the Adirondacks. An additional quick 0.5"
of snow is possible in areas outside of the lake effect band in
northern New York. The band looks to become disorganized and
somewhat fall apart as it pushes east into Vermont, with perhaps
some upslope snow under blocked flow against the northern spine of
the Greens. Most places in Vermont will only see a dusting to 0.5"
of snow from this system. Snow showers quickly slide northeast and
taper off areawide by Saturday evening with some flurries in the
Greens in Vermont and the central Adirondacks. Temperatures during
the day Saturday will warm into the mid to upper 20, to near
freezing in the wider valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 143 PM EST Friday...Saturday night will once again be on the
below average side of the temperature scale with values in the
single digits in New York and low teens in Vermont. Winds will pivot
to the northwest on Sunday as the overarching trough slides overhead
with modest caa keeping temperatures in the teens to low 20s. Drier
conditions will filter some continued upslope snow showers confined
to the northern Greens. Large scale troughing will still be
attempting to cross the region during the day Sunday which will help
to keep clouds in place across the region, but more on the scattered
to broken side and not as low with deep layer moisture absent.
Overnight Sunday lows will fall to near zero for many locations,
especially in the Adirondacks where the colder hollows could dip
into the negatives. Caa overnight Sunday will be accompanied by a
decent low level jet at 3000ft which will push mountain summit winds
to 25-30 mph. Some enhancement from downsloping may produce some
locally gusty winds in the eastern facing slopes of the Adirondacks
and southern Greens.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 143 PM EST Friday...The next chance of snow will begin Monday
afternoon, with impacts minor and relatively localized. A narrow
ridge will move through the region Monday morning, causing flow to
shift from northwesterly to southwesterly during the day. Some light
snow will develop across the eastern Great Lakes region in response
to the next shortwave, positively-tilted trough and some ample low
level warm, moist air advection. It should reach northern New York
during the afternoon, especially evening hours. So some difficult
travel is possible for the evening commute in our western areas.
Scattered snow showers will likely progress eastward ahead of the
systems`s surface trough, while a more potent lake band develops
with a localized area of heavier snow possible in our typical zone
of southeastern St. Lawrence and adjacent southern Franklin County
in New York. Outside of this band, expect relatively light snow
showers with accumulations primarily in higher elevations due to the
antecedent cold, dry air in place and lack of a significant
front/low level convergence. Note it will be another cold day,
especially in Vermont given the later timing of the southwesterly
wind shift. Average 925 millibar temperatures Monday will start out
near the climatological 5th percentile, or roughly -16 Celsius, and
rise to near the 20th percentile, or about -11 Celsius, by the
evening. High temperatures look reasonable in the low to mid teens
in many locations, with upper 10s to near 20 in the wide valleys.
Main story for the long term beyond this system will be the well-
advertised warm up from Tuesday through Thursday. Below normal
temperatures are expected Tuesday once again, but then there is
strong model agreement on a short thaw as low level temperatures
reach above normal values by Wednesday afternoon. There is pretty
good model agreement this pattern change will lead to temperatures
aloft at 850 millibars reaching near or above freezing by Wednesday
morning, especially southern areas. Aside from an outlier model
solution dominated by the GEPS ensemble, even the warmer solutions
(90th percentile) during this period are only about 2 degrees
Celsius, so not much of a thaw in higher elevations will occur. Then
as we move into Thursday, while temperatures are strongly favored to
be mild (most likely highs in the upper 30s to low 40s), again even
the warmest solutions are not extreme as the upper air pattern is
unlikely to be particularly amplified.
More importantly, will note that one model cluster, favored by
nearly half of the GEFS members in the most recent 00Z cycle and
consistent with the 12Z GFS, showed a colder situation for Thursday.
That could set up a risk of a mixed precipitation event (snow to
rain with a zone of sleet/freezing rain in between) as there is high
certainty of widespread precipitation at some point on Thursday.
Given that this event is still almost a week out, please monitor the
forecast as it will likely change.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Snow showers continue at SLK/EFK/MPV.
Persistent IFR conditions/steadier snow at SLK will trend towards
intermittent as depth of moisture decreases. Meanwhile EFK/MPV have
already trended towards intermittent snow showers and prevailing
MVFR conditions along with brief IFR visibilities. Some MVFR CIGs
will probably continue after snow showers taper off, especially at
SLK, in association with favorable southwesterly low level flow for
maintaining low clouds. Other sites will be VFR, although a low (40%
or less) chance of MVFR CIGs at BTV and RUT exists given cloud bases
near 3000 feet. At MSS, mainly clear skies early in the period will
trend overcast with chances for MVFR ceilings increasing mainly
after 06Z along with snow shower chances, especially towards 12Z.
Winds are somewhat variable at the moment with terrain influences,
but generally remain out of the west around 5 to 10 knots with 15-20
knot gusts gradually dying off through 00Z. Overnight, winds will
shift southerly. Between 12Z and 18Z the south winds will ramp up
into the 5 to 11 knot range with gusts to around 20 knots,
especially at MSS, SLK, and BTV.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will continue today for a
few more hours. Sustained winds will generally range between
20-25 KT, before eventually dropping into the 5-15 KT range by
Friday evening. The larger westerly component to the winds will
limit waves a bit, but they will still generally be in the 1-3
foot range tonight. Lower winds tonight will lower waves down
to around 1 foot.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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