466
FXUS61 KBTV 301826
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
126 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers will continue today and tonight, remaining
mostly focused in the higher elevations. Our next chance of more
widespread snow arrives New Years Eve, with most areas seeing 1 to 2
inches of snow by daybreak New Years Day. Seasonably cold weather
continues into the New Year along with occasional chances for
mountain snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 PM EST Tuesday...Scattered snow showers will continue
through tonight, particularly across the higher terrain. However,
westerly to slightly northwesterly flow is keeping lake Ontario
moisture to the south so they are on the relatively light side.
Unblocked flow and strong winds are keeping the heavier snow showers
in the higher terrain and to the east. Temperatures are cold, but
sustained winds in the 10-20 mph range are causing wind chills to
generally remain in the single digits above and below zero. While
temperatures will fall a few degrees tonight, winds will gradually
come down a bit so wind chills will likely not drop much. The
upslope snow showers will eventually taper off tomorrow morning and
dry conditions should persist into the afternoon. Temperatures
should rise about ten degrees higher than today, and with lighter
winds, it will feel much warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 PM EST Tuesday...The brief dry stretch will end as another
clipper moves into the region for New Years Eve night. Southwest
flow ahead of it will help transport Lake Ontario moisture into the
region and enough synoptic forcing will cause some light to moderate
snowfall to develop. There could be a few heavier convective snow
showers as the front moves through on the backside. Right now, it
looks to bring 1-2 inches for most places away from the Canadian
border. With relatively quick motion and a lack of significant
moisture, any high end amounts would be relatively low. A colder
airmass will arrive on the backside of the clipper with temperatures
similar to today, but the benefit will be that winds will be much
lighter, so wind chills will be higher.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM EST Tuesday...A stagnant weather pattern will prevail
with troughiness over Vermont and northern New York as we initiate
2026. Seasonably cool weather will be favored between intervals of
dry weather. Occasional troughs embedded within the cyclonic flow
will be able to pull some lake moisture into the region to produce
some snow and reinforce cool air in place. So temperatures in the
daytime will largely remain in the 20s with nighttime lows in the
single digits to teens, and as we approach, we`ll monitor whether
any clearer patches can allow some radiational cooling.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...A typical day in northwest flow. Occasional
snow showers at KSLK and KEFK are maintaining IFR conditions while
the rest of the region is largely VFR. An arctic inversion is
expected to lower, and so some MVFR ceilings will be possible
between about 16z and 00z-03z Wednesday. Continued drying and
unblocked flow will eventually cause clouds to scatter. Any
lingering snow showers will also end.  Sustained northwest winds of
10 to 15 knots, locally higher, and gusts 20 to 30 knots will
continue before slowly subsiding after 22z. Snow showers are likely
to begin lifting back northeastwards into the region beyond 18z
Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
New Years Day: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Sustained winds in the 15-30 kt range are expected to continue
into the overnight hours tonight. Waves will stay on the lower
side due to the westerly component of the wind, so they are only
expected to reach the 1-3 foot range for most places, though
approaching 4 ft on the eastern side of the broad lake. Winds
will drop to around 10 kt by late tonight night and waves will
drop to around and below a foot.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
MARINE...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV