654
FXUS61 KBTV 071829
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
229 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 229 PM EDT Tuesday...
Rain chances have lowered and trended quicker to end on Friday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 229 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. Quiet weather, then showers and some thunderstorms remain
likely Thursday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves
through the region.
2. Dry weekend and some showers early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 229 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Aside from lingering light rain in southern Vermont,
possible very localized showers late this afternoon in the western
foothills of the Adirondacks, and fog development in the typical
locations late tonight, there is little weather to speak of through
Thursday morning. Following a cool start to the day, abundant sun
and light winds will result in efficient warming tomorrow. As 925
millibar temperatures warm a bit relative to today, near 21 to 23
Celsius, we should see highs in the mid to upper 80s in most
locations. Tomorrow night with increasing clouds and a bit more near
surface west/southwest winds bringing in more humid air, we will not
be quite as cool to start the day on Thursday.
The latest guidance for Thursday`s expected showers appears to be in
fairly good agreement in this forecast cycle, where a weak front
draped west to east develops right over the region during the
afternoon and slowly shifts southward. In a marginally unstable
environment, driven off of increasing moisture convergence in a
higher PWAT environment, cells will tend to develop on the north
side of this boundary rather than south. This pattern with very dry
air aloft south of the boundary suggests warm sector coverage of
convection will be quite limited. At this time, there appears
to be a relatively narrow threat area closer to the
International Border during the afternoon and first part of the
evening, shifting southward with time into the Adirondacks and
central Vermont by evening. The Storm Prediction Center
currently shows a general thunder risk, which seems reasonable
considering the small overlap area of 1000 J/kg of CAPE and
30-40 knots of bulk shear near the front (greater shear north,
greater instability south). Still think a storm or two could
reach severe wind levels in this environment, but the risk of
this is low. Similarly, there is no Excessive Rainfall Outlook
at this time; antecedent dryness and only a small ribbon of
anomalous deep moisture points to only brief heavy rainfall
associated with any stronger thunderstorms in northernmost
portions of New York and Vermont.
Have noted that with this front sinking southward and little
additional shortwave energy passing through Thursday night,
precipitation will tend to become lighter or even diminish as it
moves into southern Vermont. In general, the risk of showers, and
especially heavy rain, for July 10th is low with these trends as
cool northerly flow brings our humidity back down during the
course of the day Friday. Perhaps southern portions of Vermont
will have enough lingering heat and humidity to spark a
thunderstorm, but trends in the data are suggesting Friday is
mainly a dry day for our region; expect PoPs will trend lower.
KEY MESSAGE 2: This weekend will be dry both in terms of precipitation
and humidity, with no rain expected and low humidity. Temperatures
will be seasonably warm, with highs in the upper 70s and 80s. Lows
overnight will be relatively comfortable, in the 50s to around 60.
The heat and humidity begin to build in for the beginning of next
week, but a cold front looks to come through before they can become
fully established. It will be accompanied with a round of showers
and potential thunderstorms, but the exact timing and extent of the
precipitation remain uncertain. This is the typical July setup where
the potential for strong to severe storms will be watched, but it
will be conditional on factors like the exact timing of the frontal
passage, the strength of the synoptic forcing and the amount of
instability that will be able to develop ahead of it. However, the
the front does look to be relatively strong for the time of year,
with the potential for a notably cooler airmass on the backside.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Conditions are currently all VFR and that
will be the case through the evening. Patchy fog development is
expected in the later part of the night. Fog formation is most
likely at SLK, MPV and RUT where there is around a 50-75 percent
chance of a period of associated MVFR or IFR visibility. Any fog
that forms lifts by 12Z and VFR conditions will persist through
tomorrow. Southerly and terrain driven winds are present this
afternoon and they should all become light or terrain driven
tonight. Generally light winds continue into tomorrow afternoon.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Myskowski
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