459
FXUS61 KBTV 121337
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
837 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will help spark light snow and support breezy southwest
winds later today through tonight, resulting in accumulations
primarily in the western foothills of the Adirondacks and in the
mountains across northern New York and Vermont. Seasonable
temperatures today will become a bit above normal on Tuesday and
Wednesday in advance of a strong cold front. Chances for
precipitation, and potentially widespread snowfall, increase
Wednesday night into Thursday as much colder air spills into the
region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 834 AM EST Monday...Quick update to increase arrival time
of snow shower activity into northern NY, based on web cams, sfc
obs and radar. Sfc obs indicate vis btwn 3/4SM at OGS and 2SM at
MSS and 2.5SM at Potsdam associated with snow shower activity.
The initial band of snow will continue to move eastward
impacting the northern/central Green Mtns of VT by mid/late
morning. A break is possible in the precip fields before
additional precip with slightly stronger dynamics arrives for
mid to late afternoon. Did make some minor tweaks to increase
the areal coverage of light qpf and snowfall acrs northern NY,
based on crnt trends. Rest of fcst in good shape.
Previous discussion below:
*Minor travel impacts today into tonight associated with light
snow and some areas of blowing snow are expected today
An active, if not particularly impactful, weather pattern
continues. Right on the heels of the gusty winds and snow
showers early this morning will be the next system coming across
the region from the west this afternoon. Early this morning a
mid-level trough tied to a clipper-type of system in northern
portions of eastern Canada is producing light snow over the
Upper Peninsula of Michigan. As the trough and associated
enhanced moisture tracks towards the east-southeast, low level
west-southwesterly flow will further increase low level
moisture from the eastern Great Lakes. As such, clouds and light
snow will blossom this morning over northern New York. The
230-240 degree wind direction is typically favorable for lake-
effect snow in our forecast area, although in this case the
instability over Lake Ontario is limited with only about a 10
degree Celsius air-lake temperature difference. Relatedly, most
modeling shows limited banded structures, and rather a broad
area of light to moderate snow develops downwind.
Have continued to show high probabilities of snow, with areas
of blowing snow, in much of southeastern St. Lawrence County
where combination of upslope flow and vicinity to greater
moisture continues to suggest localized higher impacts. A
similar scenario, but later in the day and generally with
lighter snowfall rates, is expected for the far northern Green
Mountains. Outside of a burst of light snow in northern New York
during the late morning and the aforementioned snowfall in the
western Adirondacks and northern Greens, much of the higher
terrain across Vermont and New York should see periods of light
snow through much of the afternoon into tonight, with mainly
flurries in the valleys east of the Adirondacks. Little weather
of interest follows for Tuesday, but have started boosting
winds/wind gusts a bit later in the day as southerly flow
increases with pressure falls ahead of a stronger frontal
system.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 124 AM EST Monday...
* Increasing chances for valley rain and higher elevation snow
showers
A strong cold front, with surface low initially tracking well to our
northwest, will keep precipitation chances pretty low for this
period, with our far northern and western areas somewhat more
favorable for period of elevationally-dependent rain/snow showers.
The orientation of the trough supports only a little bit of water
vapor transport from lower latitudes/subtropical air, with most
of the enhancement of precipitation north of the Great Lakes
through this timeframe ahead of the front. During the day on
Wednesday some showers will tend to eke farther east as the
front slowly moves eastward. Air aloft will be sufficiently cold
for snow, so it will be a boundary layer issue for
precipitation type. As of 120 AM EST Monday. In fact, valley
high temperatures are expected to reach as high as the lower
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 AM EST Monday...The latter half of the week continues to be
dominated by a complex and interesting set up as we`ll be under the
influence of a deep upper trough. A tight temperature gradient will
exist on the eastern edge of this trough Wednesday night and
Thursday, between high pressure to our west and a surface low
developing somewhere of the Northeast coast. Exactly where this
gradient sets up is still uncertain, as evidenced in the significant
spread in the 25th and 75th percentiles for Thursday`s high
temperatures via the NBM; much of the region has 10-20F spread,
compared to just 2-4F on the preceding day. Regardless, with the
frontal boundary wavering somewhere in our vicinity, anticipate
increased shower chances for Wednesday night and Thursday, with the
model consensus showing the front setting up just to our south by
Thursday night/Friday. This solution would lead to sharply colder
temperatures Thursday, keeping precipitation in the form of snow and
highs only in the teens and 20s. Trends will need to be watched
though, as the front could remain further north than currently
anticipated, particularly if a wave of low pressure develops along
it.
Things become even more uncertain for Thursday night/Friday and into
the weekend as an upper low will swing across the
Northeast/Appalachians, and eventually out over the Atlantic. Where
its surface low will track remains uncertain, with both the GEFS and
ECMWF ensemble members placing the low anywhere from NJ/PA to
Downeast Maine to well south of Nova Scotia. Obviously, this has
implications for how much, if any, precipitation we would get for
week`s end. It should be noted that the GFS continues to show a very
dry airmass in place behind the aforementioned front, with PWATs
0.25 inch at best Thursday night/Friday. At this point, have stayed
fairly close to the NBM solution for Thursday night through Sunday,
with slight chance to low chance PoPs and temperatures warming back
up close to normal for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...Snow has mostly ended across the region
this morning, with only KEFK still reporting IFR conditions in
snow. This too should end in the first few hours of the TAF
period, with a mix of MVFR/VFR to prevail at all terminals through
the remainder of the morning hours. However, snow returns this
afternoon and evening, especially at KMSS/KSLK/KEFK. Visibility
1-3SM in any snow, but ceilings to remain 1500-2500 ft. All
other terminals should see clouds thicken and lower to around
3000 ft, give or take 500 ft or so this afternoon and remain so
through the rest of the TAF period. While a snow shower or two
cannot be totally ruled out at the other terminals, particularly
KMPV and KBTV, coverage/certainty is not high enough to warrant
mention in the TAFs at this time. Gusty W/NW winds will
continue at 20-30 kt through this morning, then gradually
subsiding this afternoon. The exception will be KSLK/KMSS which
will hold onto stronger gusts through the TAF period. Periods of
LLWS are expected at most terminals, with KPBG/KBTV the only
exceptions.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SN, Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Taber
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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