256
FXUS61 KBTV 061114
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
714 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 242 AM EDT Monday...
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 242 AM EDT Monday...
1. A few showers possible for northeastern Vermont today will
be followed by more widespread showers across southern Vermont
tonight into Tuesday.
2. Next chance for showers Thursday afternoon into Friday as a
cold front moves through the region. Temperatures will start out
above normal then trend back towards seasonal normals over the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 242 AM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Weak convergence under the ridge is favored to
develop this afternoon across northeastern Vermont and may
produce a few showers. Thunderstorms are unlikely given the
position of the ridge axis that will cap upward development. Low
pressure tracking south of Vermont tonight into Tuesday will
increase shower chances across southern Vermont as flow promotes
isentropic upglide. Rainfall totals shouldn`t be significant and
generally favored at less than 0.25". Models have shifted the
area of precipitation southward from previous runs resulting in
lower chances of rain for northern/central Vermont.
Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages with highs
ranging in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Cloud cover Tuesday will
suppress highs into the mid/upper 70s to low 80s with highest
temperatures towards the Canadian border. A warming trend is
probable starting Wednesday with potential for some upper 80s
in the Champlain Valley.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front will eventually move through the region,
most likely late Thursday or Friday, with drier and more seasonable
conditions expected heading toward the weekend. High temperatures
look to generally be in the upper 70s and 80s towards the end of
next week. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal
passage, with the potential for any stronger storms to be monitored
as we get closer as there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding
the exact strength and timing of these features.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all
terminals, and are expected to continue throughout the forecast
period. Winds will generally be light and variable overnight,
trending more south/southeasterly through the day, generally less
than 10 knots. High clouds and drier conditions should limit any fog
development tonight. Cloud cover is expected to increase throughout
the day tomorrow, with ceilings generally 5000 ft AGL or
greater. Low pressure tracking south of Vermont will be
increasing easterly wind fields aloft after 09Z Tuesday
promoting some LLWS at RUT/MPV as shower chances begin to
increase.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer
AVIATION...Boyd/Kremer
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