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  Thursday February 29, 2024

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 290549
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1249 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dynamic storm system will bring strong winds, localized
strong to severe thunderstorms west of the Green Mountains of
Vermont, and rapidly cooling temperatures tonight. After a
frigid day on Thursday, temperatures rebound to above seasonal
normals by the weekend, and will be near record breaking
territory again early next week. A few showers will be possible
early next week. Main updates were made to temperatures, with

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1232 AM EST Thursday...Only some small adjustments were
needed to the forecast with this update. Gusty winds continue
across the region, although they have been slow to become
northwesterly. Most of the precipitation has moved east out of
the region, although some light snow showers continue across
portions of the Adirondacks into Vermont, although out in the
St. Lawrence things look to have ended. Main changes with this
update have been made to temperatures to reflect the recent
observations and trends, with a decent gradient across the
forecast area. Locations in St. Lawrence County and the Northern
Adirondacks have already dropped into the teens, while much of
Vermont is still sitting in the 30s. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track. See the previous discussion below:

Despite abundant clouds and higher moisture content, we`ve still
warmed well into the upper 50s and mid 60s, except eastern Vermont.
Southeasterly flow has kept eastern Vermont a bit cooler
overall. We`ve had multiple batches of rain try to lift into our
area, but ultimately struggling to maintain themselves headed
into the region. As a result, we have not be primed and our
flood threat has decreased. The River Forecast Center no longer
forecasts any region to reach flood stage. There only remains a
chance for reaching bankful for Otter Creek at Center Rutland,
and the SPoRT model suggesting some potential at the Missisquoi
at North Troy. QPF for this event has been trending slightly
downward, as this front is likely to move along at a fast clip.
While we`ve had modest snowmelt with the warm temperatures, it
has struggled to warm where it counts most for potential river
rises, and thus, the Flood Watch has been cancelled. So we can
breath easy on that facet.

However, we still have an ongoing wind threat(s). We have the
synoptic wind gust potential along and behind the front, and
convective potential with the front. We`ll start discussing the
storms.

Storm Gust Potential: The Storm Prediction Center has much of
northern New York and western Vermont in a marginal risk outlook
(Level 1 of 5). This indicates the potential for short-lived,
localized storms capable of producing severe weather. For today, the
main concern is damaging winds. There`s very marginal instability
forecast over northern New York, where a small area of clearer skies
has likely resulted in some warming, but there still remains a warm
nose and some CIN in place. A thunderstorm has quickly developed
over Lake Ontario, where some lake enhanced convergence has already
produced some convection. This will likely taper off heading into
our region. The question will be how well such a dynamic front can
maintain the line as it shifts east. With such strong winds near to
the ground, it won`t take tall convection to produce some damaging
wind. We`ll keep an eye, but the potential seems fairly low, with
the greater impacts from the synoptic winds behind the front.

Synoptic Gust Potential: The environment for strong post-frontal
winds appears fairly good. We`re already observing a handful of 35
to 45 mph gusts across the region. Areas prone to strong south winds
could see some further increases right before the front arrives up
to 50 mph in the Champlain Valley, and perhaps reaching 55 to 60 for
northern slopes of the Adirondacks. Behind the front, the pressure
fall and rise couplet is fairly strong. 6 Hour pressure chances are
greater than 10mb for a large swath behind the front up against 4mb
pressure fall tendencies ahead of it. There will be a good
isallobaric component in addition to the already existence 50-60
knots winds at 850mb. As cold air moves in, there will be an
inversion right around ridge top for about one hour once the rain
moves out and before the faster winds lift higher up into the
atmosphere. There may be a short-lived burst of strong gusts that
make it all the way from the Adirondacks down into the lower
Champlain Valley before backing towards the immediate foothills for
a few additional hours before it too begins to taper off. So about 8
PM, be on the lookout for at least one intense gust of wind down to
Plattsburgh, Willsboro, and Ticonderoga in New York where a brief 55
to 60 mph gust may occur, before going back towards 40 mph.
Elsewhere, post frontal winds are still likely to be between 40 and
50 mph, which is captured well within the Wind Advisory. Isolated to
scattered power outages are expected to take place, especially with
soils becoming saturated from precipitation and snowmelt.

With that, the one thing to remain is the flash freeze potential. As
rain is exiting, we should see a brief transition to some snow (1
inch or less of accumulation) as low-level conditions rapidly cool
below freezing. Temperatures will quickly drop off behind the front.
20 degree drops in 3 hours will be common as the front exits the
area. However, with reduced QPF and strong winds, the impacts may be
widely scattered as opposed to widespread. Still, bundle up if
heading out late tonight for the near zero to below zero wind
chills, and then be on the lookout for ponding on roads, as it could
be ice.

By morning, the air temperature will be in the teens to single
digits. And it won`t get much warmer during the day Thursday with
teens to lower 20s. Winds will remain stiff on Thursday, and
increase with diurnal mixing. The 850hPa flow is not strong, but
the mixed layer reached up to almost 700hPa tomorrow. To achieve
the most mixing, we will need some virga, and the potential does
exist, to produce the downward motions to drive that to the
surface. We`ll keep in eye on the eastern slopes tomorrow for
some stronger 35 to 45 mph gusts, locally up to 50 mph possible. The
stiff winds will begin to ease up Thursday night, and it will
still be on the cooler side with more teens to single digits
above zero for lows. Some upper level moisture will crest a
ridge out to our west while warm advection begins again. This
could generate some very light snow in northern New York late
Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 347 PM EST Wednesday...Surface high pressure based in the
Atlantic Ocean and building mid to upper ridge will keep the first
day of March quiet and largely dry. A warm front lifting through the
forecast area will provide some additional clouds and perhaps a
flurry or isolated snow shower Friday morning along the
international border/Northeast Kingdom, but after that, increasing
sunshine is expected as dry air surges from the south/southwest.
Surface winds will also be out of the southwest for most,
efficiently advecting in plenty of warmth to bring out highs into
the mid 30s to mid 40s. Friday night will also be mild and quiet as
winds turn more southerly, with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s,
which is roughly 15-20 degrees above average for early March in our
forecast area. Clouds and chance of precip will start to return
again from the south ahead of a shortwave.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 347 PM EST Wednesday...Models are beginning to hone in on the
position of the shortwave we`ve been monitoring for Saturday. Timing
of the best forcing and moisture look to overlap enough to bring
some showery precipitation to portions of our forecast area
Saturday. Highs over the weekend will be in the upper 40s to around
60, so any precip from this shortwave is likely to be in the form of
rain showers. Precip will be focused mainly in southern zones, but
there`s the potential for showers to reach a little farther north.
After this minimally impactful shortwave heads off into the
Atlantic, we get back into some ridging and high pressure for a few
days.

Highs for the first half of the week will be in the 50s for most.
Dry weather expected for the early week before chances of rain
showers return. The models are still not cooperating for the mid to
lake week. Timing of a frontal boundary and low pressure system is
the primary issue here with variable outcomes possible. The main
takeaway is that at at this time, nothing too impactful appears to
occur during the long term period. Tuesday - Tuesday night could
have some showers from a weak cold front, but it looks like mostly
light rain showers at this time with minimal other concerns. Ski
areas might be the most impacted by warm weather and no foreseeable
snow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday.. Most of the precipitation associated with
the strong cold front has come to an end, with some light snow
showers continuing across the region this hour, although these
showers should continue for another hour or so before
diminishing. VFR conditions prevail at most terminals, with the
exception of some localized MVFR/IFR within snow showers. KSLK
and KEFK are most likely to see reduced flight conditions due
to these showers, but improvement is expected by 9Z. Outside of
these showers, mostly dry weather should prevail through the
remainder of the forecast period. Strong westerly winds will
shift becoming more northwesterly and continue through the
overnight into tomorrow, with gusts currently up to 35 knots.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Flood Watch has been cancelled. Temperatures in eastern
Vermont have not warmed as much as forecast, and there has
remained abundant cloud cover. Despite this, we have not been
primed with much rain over the last 24 hours, and the front is
expected to move very quickly before it can produce too much
rain. The River Forecast Center no longer has any river forecast
to reach Minor Flood. As a result, the Flood Watch has been let
go.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

February 28:
KBTV: 43/1903
KPBG: 36/2018
KSLK: 34/1910

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for VTZ001>011-
     016>021.
NY...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ026-028-029-
     035-087.
     High Wind Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ027-030-
     031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Kremer
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
CLIMATE...WFO BTV


 
 
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