377
FXUS61 KBTV 030715
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
315 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 232 AM EDT Friday...
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast as
unusual heat continues for one more day.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 232 AM EDT Friday...
1. Today will be the last day of this heat wave with dangerous
conditions continuing through the afternoon into the evening.
2. More thunderstorms are expected today and tomorrow with a
few stronger storms possible again this afternoon.
3. Warm weather will linger into next week, along with daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 232 AM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Today will mark our third consecutive day with
widespread heat index values in excess of 90. The Champlain
Valley remains and hottest locale with high temperatures in the
mid 90s support heat index values to around 100. While today`s
conditions will be slightly less oppressive than recent, heat
impacts tend to be cumulative. Therefore, have opted to keep the
Extreme Heat Warning in effect in the Champlain Valley and
portions of the Connecticut River Valley rather than downgrading
to an advisory. Fortunately, conditions trend drier Saturday as
a relative cold front drops out of Canada. Winds will not be
overly strong, but there is a decent dew point gradient and cool
air advection that will support highs in the 80s Saturday and
Sunday with dew points decreasing into the 60s and 50s
respectively. Sunday will feel much more refreshing even with
temperatures running a couple degrees warmer than average in the
low/mid 80s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The axis of highest instability for this
afternoon will be tilting to a southwest/northeast orientation
leaving much of Vermont in a general thunderstorm area while
portions of southern Vermont and northern New York remain in an
area with a marginal threat of a stronger variety thunderstorm.
One significant change is from recent conditions will be the
decrease in strength of the CAPE gradient in the vicinity of
Ottawa. Still, PWATs remain elevated, so it`s feasible that
heat/instability will be enough to fire convection along the
CAPE gradient and push a few storms through portions of
northern New York in more of a northwest to southeast direction.
For northern Vermont, the threat for thunderstorms will be more
conditional on whether convection can get going over terrain
with outflows driving surface convergence resulting in more
isolated coverage of showers and thunderstorms; best chances
remain over terrain.
An approaching boundary will keep some shower chances ongoing
overnight and support very isolated thunderstorms overnight
into Saturday. Can`t rule out thunderstorms through the morning
to around noon Saturday for northern Vermont. The front drops
south through the day shunting convection chances southward as
well. Winds will not be overly strong given the weaker
thermal/pressure gradients, but some gusts to 20 mph will be
possible along Lake Champlain and up to 30 mph for ridges.
Sunday will remain dry behind the front with transient high
pressure overhead. By Monday, southwest flow is favored to
return while diffluence increases aloft. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible as instability increases from
southwest to northeast through the day.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Heading into next week, warm weather looks to
linger, although temperatures and heat indices will not be as
warm as the week above. At this time, high temperatures are most
likely to range in the 80s and lower 90s with chances for
showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. Overnight lows
look to remain on the warmer side, generally in the 60s, which
may lead to accumulating heat impacts. Although it looks like it
won`t be quite as hot as earlier in the week, it is important
to remember to drink water and take frequent breaks if working
outside, especially with such an extended period of warmer
weather. While there will likely be several chances for
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances, there is still a lot
of uncertainty at this point.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all
terminals, and are expected to persist through most of the forecast
period. Winds will trend light and variable overnight, before
increasing out of west/northwest towards the afternoon, with gusts
between 15 ans 25 knots will be possible. Additional shower and
thunderstorm chances will be possible throughout the forecast
period, but there is low confidence in areal coverage and extent of
any possible showers, so have left mention of them out of the
forecast at this time.
Outlook...
Independence Day: VFR. Scattered SHRA, Isolated TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Extreme heat and humidity will continue today, which could lead
to some daily records. Below are the current daily high and low
temperature records in jeopardy at our area climate sites.
Record High Temperatures:
July 3:
KMPV: 91/2002
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
July 4:
KPBG: 71/1973
KSLK: 67/1952
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VTZ003-004-
006>008-010-016>020.
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001-
002-005-009-011-021.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026-027-
029>031-034-087.
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ028-
035.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Boyd
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...Danzig/NWS BTV
|
