121
FXUS61 KBTV 282349
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
649 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A powerful low pressure system tracking to our west will bring a
period of freezing rain tonight into tomorrow, eventually
transitioning into plain rain. Later tomorrow, a cold front will
drop temperatures back below freezing with a few snow showers.
Heading through the week, our weather will remain wintry with cold
temperatures many chances for snow showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 632 PM EST Sunday...Radar showing freezing rain expanding
quickly toward our cwa this evening with precip expected to
develop in the next 1 to 2 hours. Water vapor shows impressive
rapidly developing cyclone over the central Plains, with potent
s/w energy/dynamics helping to enhance thunderstorm development
in the Ohio Valley. In addition, strong-deep layer moisture and
thermal advection continues from the northern Ohio Valley into
central NY, as precip continues to expand in areal coverage.
Upstream 3 to 4 hour qpf amounts at BUF are impressive with
>0.75" occurring, its this heavy axis of precip with elevated
instability that will move acrs our cwa later tonight into
Monday morning. I have bumped up qpf amounts to match upstream
trends and latest CAM output. Given crnt temps in the upper
teens to mid 20s, most precip starts as freezing rain, but a
switch occurs first along portions of the northern Dacks and
central/southern CPV, associated with downslope warming.
Elsewhere, cold air and freezing rain lingers the longest over
the SLV and east of the Greens, including the CT River Valley.
Still thinking ice accumulations of 0.15" to 0.30" in the
advisory and 0.50" to 0.75" in the ice storm warning looks
reasonable, given latest 21z HRRR and RAP data. Just minor
tweaks made in grids attm.
The gusty west to southwest winds on backside, especially parts
of the SLV and downslope portions of the eastern Greens could
produce additional power outages on Monday night into Tuesday.
Travel will be extremely difficult late this evening and
especially during the Monday morning commute.
Previous discussion below:
A quickly deepening low pressure system will move northeast
into the Great lakes region and occlude tonight into Monday. A
secondary low will begin to develop just south of the region and
become the primary low as it moves up into Atlantic Canada.
With cold temperatures at the onset from the lingering effects
of the polar high, the precipitation with the initial warm front
will fall as freezing rain for most places tonight. A
substantial warm nose will prevent snow on the front end. With
the NBM and other guidance consistently keeping temperatures too
warm during the day and overnight during the current airmass
has, confidence is high that the precipitation will start as
freezing rain almost everywhere.
As warm air advection continues through Monday morning, temperatures
at the surface will gradually warm above freezing. This will likely
start in parts of the northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley,
before eventually reaching the St. Lawrence Valley and protected
hollows east of the Green Mountains last. Overall, ice accumulations
look to be in the 0.2-0.5 inch range for most places, with a bit
less in the Champlain Valley and parts of the northern Adirondacks.
The most favored areas could see slightly over 0.5 inches.
Some model uncertainty remains with QPF and temperatures, and most
of it is related to the development of the aforementioned secondary
low. A quicker development, as long as it continues to be favored
south of the region, will significantly cut down on the warm air
advection and southerly surface winds, something like the HRRR and
RRFS currently show. This would lead to freezing rain hanging on
into the afternoon in many areas. With the NBM on the warmer side of
the solutions and its tendency to struggle in freezing rain events,
I blended in some temperatures from colder guidance, dropping
temperatures east of the Greens and in the St. Lawrence Valley a
bit. This generally puts the forecast in between the higher and
lower guidance, but the overall gap is not too large and there is
decent confidence with the overall idea of the forecast.
Temperatures should rise into the mid 30s to mid 40s briefly in the
afternoon for most places. The current thinking is that everywhere
should see a couple hours above freezing, though whether it is
enough to melt all the ice accreted to trees and powerlines is in
question, especially in the St. Lawrence Valley and areas east of
the Greens where the cold air is entrenched the longest.
Temperatures may not rise above freezing in parts of these places
until the immediately after the cold front moves through in the
afternoon and mixes the atmosphere. Cold air advection will be quite
strong behind the front and everywhere should see temperatures
falling below freezing by late Monday evening. Gusts will generally
be in the 25-40 mph range, though locally higher winds are expected
in the St. Lawrence Valley and far northern Adirondacks. This could
present problems if the colder guidance verifies and temperatures in
the coldest areas do not rise above freezing and ice remains on the
powerlines and trees.
As the cold front moves through Monday afternoon and evening, a few
heavy convective snow showers are possible. There will be a few with
the initial cold front and another broken line looks to form over
St. Lawrence County in the afternoon with lake enhancement. A quick
coating is possible from these. WHile a flash freeze is not
expected, quickly dropping temperatures in the afternoon and evening
will cause untreated areas to quickly freeze.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 127 PM EST Sunday...Continued upslope snow showers will occur
Monday night through Tuesday night from wrap around moisture.
Westerly to northwesterly flow will keep most of the moisture from
the Great Lakes to the south. Flow looks to be very unblocked during
this time, so the highest amounts should fall along and east of the
summits. Mostly westerly flow will favor the far northern Greens for
seeing the most snow, particularly around Jay Peak. Strong winds and
cold temperatures should cause wind chills to range between 0 and
-15 Tuesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 127 PM EST Sunday...A wintry weather pattern is expected
throughout much of next week, with cool temperatures and chances for
snow showers. A system moving across the region Wednesday into
Thursday may bring some widespread light snowfall to the region,
with the potential for some heavier snow showers and possible
squalls along the boundary Wednesday night, although the details
with this system need to be fine-tuned. Otherwise, cyclonic flow
aloft will continue to bring chances for snow showers, especially
across the higher terrain and portions of northern New York due to
Lake Ontario. Temperatures throughout this time period will be on
the cool side, with highs in the teens and low 20s and overnight
lows generally in the single digits above and below zero.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Currently VFR conditions at all sites with
light winds and cloud heights between 6000 and 12000 feet.
Freezing rain and significant runway icing will develop between
01z and 03z across all of our taf sites. As precipitation
develops expect cigs to lower toward mvfr conditions with
periods of moderate freezing rain likely at most sites between
04z and 10z tonight and intervals of IFR. In addition,
strengthening low level wind fields will result in developing
wind shear and turbulence across our tafs sites by midnight and
continue into Monday. Localized southeast gusts up to 25 knots
possible at BTV/RUT with northeast at MSS. Freezing rain will
transition to light rain at PBG/BTV/SLK and RUT by sunrise,
while persisting at MPV/MSS and EFK thru mid to late morning on
Monday. A sharp cold front sweeps across our taf sites after 18z
with winds shifting to the west/southwest and becoming gusty at
SLK/MSS, with Champlain Valley sites experiencing increase cigs
by 21z.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Scattered SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
New Years Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Ice Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Monday for VTZ004-006>008-010-
020-021.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for VTZ001>003-
005-009-011-016>019.
NY...Ice Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Monday for NYZ026-027-034-087.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for NYZ026-087.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for NYZ028>031-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Taber
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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