220
FXUS61 KBTV 291746
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1246 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An ice storm is ongoing in much of the region, with significant
icing occurring. Even after freezing rain ends and temperatures
rise, increasing winds this afternoon and evening will likely
result in scattered power outages. The leading edge of much
colder air will push eastward this afternoon, causing
temperatures everywhere to fall below freezing and produce
scattered snow showers. Very cold and blustery weather will
follow late tonight into Tuesday. Below normal temperatures with
chances for snow showers will continue throughout the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 624 AM EST Monday...Have made some minor changes to
temperatures and weather based on observations over the last few
hours. Most notably temperatures are a bit warmer than forecast
in much of Vermont and slightly cooler than forecast in the
southern St. Lawrence Valley. Will leave Ice Storm Warnings up
for now as heavier precipitation still is moving through and
isolated power outages are already reported in Washington,
Caledonia, Orange, and Windsor Counties. However, coverage of
>0.5" ice amounts may be fairly isolated based on early public
reports, radar estimated freezing rain, and wet bulb
temperatures currently near 32 degrees in much of eastern
Vermont.
Previous Discussion below...
**** An Ice Storm Warning continues for portions of northern New
York and eastern Vermont where storm total ice is likely to
exceed 0.5". Within the ice storm warning, areas that see
greater ice amounts will be at risk of scattered power outages.
This risk will increase when gusty, locally strong winds
develop later today into tonight.
** A Winter Weather Advisory continues in other portions of the
region where freezing rain amounts are expected to remain
under 0.5". Ice accumulation and associated temperatures are
strongly terrain dependent, with changeover to plain rain
having already occurred in localized areas.
* A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the St. Lawrence Valley,
where 45 to 54 MPH wind gusts are expected this afternoon.
So far estimated ice accumulations as of this hour are on the
order of 0.1-0.2" in much of northern New York and Vermont,
except near 0.25-0.4" in southern Essex County, New York.
Precipitation rates have been generally in the 0.05-0.08"/hour,
just heavy enough to lead to some runoff/lower efficiency
accumulation, especially where wet bulb temperatures near 32
degrees. However, even a rate of 0.05"/hour of ice accumulation,
areas that stay colder throughout the next several hours, are
on track to see totals exceed 0.5" given long duration of
freezing rain. There seems to be only a brief lull in rain
before it fills back in early this morning, with only negligible
changes to the previous rainfall amounts and therefore changes
in ice accumulation will be mostly driven off of marginal
temperatures. Have already ended the Winter Weather Advisory in
portions of the Adirondacks, and we have seen temperatures in
the eastern side of the northern Champlain Valley creep above
freezing a little ahead of schedule.
The mature mid-latitude cyclone spinning over northern Michigan
at this hour will track northeastward, deepening to near 976
millibars millibars this afternoon, or close to a
climatological minimum. Its track will produce an ideal setup
for channeled southwesterly winds through western New York and
up the St. Lawrence Valley behind the cold front early this
afternoon. Maximum wind gusts should be near 50 MPH with
steepening lapse rates due to the strong cold air advection,
supporting excellent momentum transfer. These types of winds
combined with significant weight of ice on tree limbs and power
lines could create more significant damage. Risk of the stronger
variety gusts will diminish during the evening as lapse rates
weaken and surface temperatures fall below freezing. Gusty
winds, more on the order of 30-35 MPH, will be common elsewhere
behind the front as it pushes eastward through the afternoon
hours. Still anticipate scattered snow squalls during the
evening given the dramatic air mass change, plentiful moisture,
and resulting instability. Greatest chances of impacts given
temperature profiles are in the Adirondacks and higher
elevation roads in northern Vermont. Without a sharp cold
front/wind shift, we aren`t expecting flash freeze conditions
but standing water will refreeze tonight as a deep cold returns
to our region.
Late tonight into Tuesday the main story will be very cold
weather returning. The latest data has uniformly trended colder
with some of the coldest air of the season based on 850 millibar
temperatures likely dropping below -24 degrees Celsius, or near
the 2nd percentile. Gusty winds and temperatures steady in the
single digits to mid teens should cause wind chills to range
between 0 and -15 with localized areas pushing -20 tomorrow
morning. Additionally, we still expect mainly light, scattered
snow showers given limited moisture and strong, unblocked
westerly flow rather than a convergent northwesterly or
southwesterly one. The bulk of the snow accumulations will tend
to be along and east of the mountain summits, and greatest
precipitation rates will tend to be overnight when a few inches
of powder can be expected in the northern Green Mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1255 AM EST Monday...
*New Year`s Eve will be seasonably cold with increasing chances
for a light snowfall.
The gyre to our north will support continued breezy, cold
conditions, along with the arrival of another shortwave diving in
from the northwest Wednesday morning over southern Ontario. The
incoming wave seems to spawn a weak low pressure system over the
Adirondacks and an associated front will develop over our area, with
southwesterly winds continuing south of the boundary and
north/northwesterly to the north by Wednesday evening. Ongoing lake
effect snow downwind of Lake Ontario will probably be the focus of
some heavier snow as it begins to extend east-northeastward into
portions of Vermont along the developing front. most of this
activity looks closer to the ball drop rather than during the
daytime hours. Probabilities of measurable snow suggest through
midday little snow will be found away from southern Franklin and St.
Lawrence Counties, and then by evening chances for snowfall jump
into the 40-60% range for much of Vermont.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1255 AM EST Monday...Widespread light snow will continue
Wednesday night as an upper trough swings overhead. There is the
potential for some heavier snow showers and/or squalls as the trough
and its associated surface front cross through Wednesday night, so
this will need to be watched. Otherwise, we`ll remain under cyclonic
flow through the week`s end, with periodic rounds of snow showers
expected, especially across the higher terrain and areas downwind of
Lake Ontario. Temperatures through the end of the week will be
seasonably cool, with highs in the teens and low 20s and overnight
lows in the single digits above and below zero.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18z Tuesday...Aviation conditions are mainly MVFR to
IFR, except locally VFR at KPBG. Changeable flight rules are
expected across the various terminals while precipitation makes
a transition back towards snow as temperatures cool and
precipitation returns with a cold front shifting east. This will
also cause winds to trend towards a west wind. Visibilities in
snow will likely fall between 1-4SM, and ceilings could range
between 400-1300 ft agl depending in part with warm temperatures
over snow and ice with winds slackening near the front. Pockets
of LLWS will continue to occur, mainly east of the Adirondacks,
potentially impacting KPBG, and more likely impacting KMPV with
southwest winds at 2000 ft agl ranging between 35 and 45 knots.
Wind speeds at the surface will more noticeably increase after
00z, with speeds 9 to 15 knots, locally to 20 knots over KMSS
and gusts 20 to 26 knots, or up to 33 knots at KMSS.
A few areas will likely break out to VFR beyond 21z. As winds
become more northwesterly after 12z, areas like KBTV could see
ceilings lower again as winds turn northwesterly. Lake effect
snow will be likely at KSLK by about 01z, and there are PROB30s
for areas like KMSS, KBTV, and KRUT for portions of the
overnight hours for any snow showers that may break off from the
main strip of snow downwind from Lake Ontario. Beyond 12z, snow
will transition towards upslope, with perhaps lingering snow at
KSLK.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
New Years Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday: MVFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
Very strong channeled flow due to a very shallow inversion is
likely occurring this morning, resulting in broad lake winds
greater than 30 knots and waves potentially up to 7 feet. As the
inversion begins to mix out and temperatures warm, winds will
relax somewhat towards noon. They will increase again in the
afternoon out of the west/southwest scenario, when sustained
winds will not be as strong but gusts over 25 knots may
continue.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ026-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes
MARINE...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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