345
FXUS61 KBTV 231830
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
230 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

1. Showers return for Thursday into Friday

2. Heat and humidity to very gradually build which means
diurnally-driven, isolated to scattered showers with a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1:  After a mostly dry mid-week, another area of low
pressure will track into the region from the west. It looks to be
much weaker, with the pressure only dropping to around 1010 MB as it
passes through. A weak warm front should pass through late Thursday
into Thursday night, bringing the first round of showers. There will
be enough synoptic ascent to try to cause a brief round of
stratiform precip, but even if that does occur, rainfall totals will
be much lighter than yesterday. A break looks to occur Friday
morning, especially over southern areas, before a broken line of
showers tries to form in the afternoon. Through Friday,
GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined ensemble probabilities of receiving more than
0.5 inches are between 40-70 percent and probabilities of receiving
more than an inch are less than 20 percent. On Friday afternoon,
around 500-750 J of CAPE looks to form and 0-6 KM shear looks to be
around 30-35 KT, so a few strong storms will be possible. However,
increasing dry air aloft and relatively weak synoptic dynamics will
help minimize the threat. Adequate storm movement should minimize
the flood threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Both Saturday and Sunday`s weather pattern will be
characterized by an amplifying trough to our east and ridge to our
west. In the relatively slow northwest flow aloft, there`s a long,
stretched-out lobe of vorticity. With temperatures in the mid 70s to
lower 80s and dewpoints hovering around 60, it`ll be just enough
that isolated showers with a few rumbles of thunder will be
possible. Even without the specificity of high res guidance, it
looks like the kind of days where activity bubbles over the
mountains or lake breeze, and slowly drifts off and decays in their
own downdraft with very little atmospheric flow.

Then by next Monday into Tuesday, surface high pressure will more
definitively build across the Eastern Seaboard and then off into the
Atlantic. This will usher greater warmth, and then humidity lags
behind it. Ridging will suppress activity as temperatures rise
solidly into the 80s and dewpoints begin to creep into the lowers
60s to the mid-upper 60s. This means there`s a good chance we`ll be
looking at heat indices creeping into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Currently, cumulus dots the region with
ceilings occasionally around 3000-5000 ft agl as a result. Limited
shower coverage is expected this afternoon, but a PROB30 was at
least noted for KEFK and KSLK where there is somewhat greater
confidence in a shower in vicinity of either. Northwest to north
winds of 4-9 knots will be light or terrain driven. Intermittent
stronger winds may occur in valleys that channel north winds, like
at KBTV. As skies clear, cooling temperatures should fall below
crossover values, and valley fog is likely to quickly develop given
higher than normal soil moisture content. For now, focused on
climatologically favored locations with 2SM from 05z-10z, mainly
holding back for modeled winds of 10-15 knots around 500 ft agl. Any
fog will diminish after 11-12z, and then northwest winds pick up
again. This time speeds will be faster at 6-11 knots sustained, and
a few gusts up to 20 knots possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes