429
FXUS61 KBTV 100610
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
110 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread precipitation will continue through the remainder of
today and overnight tonight. Areas from the Champlain Valley
eastward will mostly see rain, while the St Lawrence Valley and
Adirondacks will remain cold enough for wintry mixed precipitation.
Colder air moves in Monday, turning precipitation to all snow from
west to east. Unsettled weather with upslope snow showers will
continue through much of this week, accompanied by seasonally cool
temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 139 PM EST Sunday...A wide range in temperatures and
precipitation this afternoon. Low pressure, currently analyzed over
central PA, will slowly translate eastward over the next 24-36
hours. Warm air advection is ongoing across our region this
afternoon as flow turns to the south/southeast ahead of the low. As
expected, much of VT is now above freezing at this hour, with just
some of the more sheltered hollows in the Northeast Kingdom still
near or slightly below 32F. Meanwhile, northern NY west of the
Champlain Valley remains entrenched in the colder air, with
temperatures still in the mid/upper 20s to around 30F in the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks (though some locally warmer
conditions are now being reported with Wanakena and Tupper Lake both
now 35F). After a lull in the precipitation this morning, we`re
starting to see the radar fill back in with a broken band of
precipitation lifting northward from central/eastern NY. Some of
this activity has had some lightning with it, so expect
precipitation rates to pick up in northern NY as it moves northward.
Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows the 850mb freezing line draped from
roughly Wanakena, NY eastward to about St Johnsbury, VT. While areas
from the Champlain Valley eastward will generally see rain or a
rapid changeover to rain, still anticipate snow to mix with sleet
and freezing rain across much of northern NY as this warmer air
aloft rides over colder air at the surface. The latest hi-res
guidance indicates that after a few hours of a messy mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain, the northern Adirondacks and St Lawrence
Valley will transition to mainly freezing rain by this evening,
continuing into the overnight hours, with the snow and sleet
shifting north of the international border. This is a bit of a
northern shift from the previous forecast, and so have lowered snow
amounts slightly while raising ice accumulations at the same time.
Overall though, the impacts and expectations haven`t changed. Colder
air will start to filter in from west to east over northern NY later
tonight, allowing the freezing rain and/or mixed precipitation to
start to change over to all snow as the entire column cools below
freezing. We still anticipate a couple of inches of snow
accumulation through tonight, along with up to a tenth of an inch of
ice. This will create slippery travel, which could potentially
affect the Monday morning commute. Therefore, the Winter Weather
Advisory remains in place across much of northern NY until 7 am
Monday.
Periods of precipitation will continue on Monday as low pressure
starts to pull away from the region. Colder air will rush in as
winds turn to the west, changing rain over to snow. Models have come
into a little better agreement on how quickly this will occur;
northern NY will change over to snow by noontime or so, while VT
should remain mostly rain until closer to sunset. Temperatures will
fall sharply overnight Monday night though, so lingering showers
will turn to all snow everywhere. The bulk of the activity Monday
night will be tied to the favored upslope areas of the northern
Greens and Adirondacks as winds turn to the west/northwest. Lows
Monday night will be in the mid teens to mid 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 139 PM EST Sunday...Blustery, cold, and snowy weather is on tap
for Tuesday and Tuesday night as the upper trough swings directly
overhead. Snow showers will be most focused in the higher terrain,
though expect at least some light accumulations even in the wider
valleys, except perhaps the lower CT River Valley. Highs will be
well below normal, only in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Cold air
advection will help to steepen low level lapse rates, and ample
mixing will result in west winds gusting to 30 mph or more. Wind
chills will be in the teens and 20s during the day. Tuesday night
will be cold and breezy as well, with lows mainly in the 20s. Winds
will start to shift a bit more toward the W/SW overnight, lifting a
lake effect band of snow up into the northern Adirondacks and St
Lawrence Valley. Additional snow accumulation is possible, with a
couple of inches downwind of Lake Ontario.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 139 PM EST Sunday...Active weather continues with typical
elevational dependence on precipitation type in much of the period
as chances for showery weather Wednesday through Friday. Low level
winds will shift from southerly on Wednesday, to westerly on
Thursday, to northwesterly on Friday, and in response there will
subtle differences in the precipitation pattern. For example,
Thursday`s showers will be more terrain-driven than on Wednesday.
Additionally, probabilities of measurable snowfall increases
Thursday night into Friday at lower elevations as temperatures trend
lower, suggesting greater chances for wider impact/lower elevation
snow accumulations. However, that timeframe also is when
precipitation chances decrease. As such, widespread hazardous
weather is not expected at this time through the period. Keep an eye
on the forecast however, as poorly timed snow showers such as around
the Friday morning commute could still be impactful.
Moving into next weekend as cyclonic flow finally departs to the
east, global ensemble data shows a weak signal for unusual cold high
temperatures on Saturday in Vermont. These cold conditions would be
consistent with shallow clouds in northwest flow as a dome of
seasonably cold air sits over the region. The most anomalous 925
millibar air, as low as the 10th percentile, will moderate during
the day and into Sunday ahead of our next weather maker from the
west. Large timing differences exist amongst guidance, and as such
broad 30-50% chances of rain and snow looks reasonable at this time
for Sunday due to the uncertainty. Due to the spread of storm tracks
there is a low (under 20%) chance for even an inch of snowfall over
the weekend at this time. A high amplitude pattern suggests
precipitation type may trend towards rain, especially moving into
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Deep upper level trough with two additional
waves of surface low pressure will bring active aviation wx
conditions over the next 24 hrs. Looking at abundant IFR/LIFR
conditions with TRRN OBSCD through the 06z Tuesday. Periods of
mixed wintry precipitation are expected early this morning at
SLK/MSS (thru 12-13Z). Further east, mainly looking at periods
of light rain during the pre-dawn hrs. After a lull in
precipitation 13-20Z, looking for precipitation to briefly
redevelop as a period of snow across the region late this
afternoon into the early evening hours. Should only last 2-3
hours, but also result in some light accumulations impacting
airport ground ops 21z thru 00z time frame. Precip ends late
evening...with winds becoming westerly as sfc low pressure
departs. This should yield modest improvement toward MVFR
conditions during the overnight hours and pre-dawn hours
Tuesday, though periods of IFR are still possible, especially at
MPV and SLK thru 12Z Tuesday.
Outlook...
Veterans Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Definite SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ026-
027-029>031-034-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Banacos
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