254
FXUS61 KBTV 051038
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
638 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...
1. Much more pleasant weather conditions will occur today with
a dry airmass over the region. Some low chances of showers
return late Monday into Tuesday as low passes south of Vermont.
2. Warmer weather expected for the middle of next week, with
chances for showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A dry continental airmass has moved into the
region and will keep conditions much more pleasant despite
temperatures ranging a couple/few degrees above seasonal
averages. Temperatures will generally be running in the upper
70s to mid 80s through Tuesday.
Next chances for showers return late Monday and Tuesday as a low
moves through southern New York state. Isentropic lift is
favored to be sufficient enough and penetrate northward into
southern Vermont with some shower chances in central and
possibly northern Vermont by Tuesday should the low`s track be
shift northward. Otherwise, winds will remain light
KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm weather is expected to build towards the middle of
the week, with current forecast high temperatures in the 80s to low
90s. A cold front will eventually move through the region, most
likely late Thursday or Friday, with drier and more seasonable
conditions expected heading toward the weekend. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage, with the potential
for any stronger storms to be monitored as we get closer as there is
still plenty of uncertainty regarding the exact strength and timing
of these features.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Other than some lingering fog and low
stratus this morning, which should dissipate over the next few
hours, VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the
forecast period. KMPV, KSLK, and KRUT are currently impacted by
fog and/or stratus but improvement is expected towards 13Z or
so, with mostly clear skies through the afternoon. Winds look to
be light throughout the forecast period, trending more
north/northwesterly into the afternoon before trending more
variable again overnight, although winds will remain below 10
knots.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Boyd
AVIATION...Kremer
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