310
FXUS61 KBTV 171329
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
829 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers are expected today, mainly in the higher terrain.
A warming trend starts today and continues into Thursday as a strong
system moves to our north. This will bring gusty winds and
widespread rain Thursday night. A strong cold front will change rain
over to snow on Friday, along with more gusty winds and a potential
flash freeze.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 822 AM EST Wednesday...Have issued an update to increase
PoPs across the Adirondacks and northern Greens this afternoon.
A few showers are possible this morning, but expect scattered to
numerous showers to develop this afternoon and last into the
evening as a surface trough/front moves across the region. Cold
air advection behind this feature will allow winds to become
gusty again as they turn to the west. Showers may be briefly
heavy at times, especially in the eastern St Lawrence Valley
into the Adirondacks where there`s a slight indication of snow
squall potential with some convergence and deepening moisture.
Briefly heavy snowfall rates and blowing snow could make for
hazardous travel with low visibility and a quick snow
accumulation on roadways. The bulk of any accumulation will
remain at higher elevations, as areas below 1500 ft will see
primarily rain or a rain/snow mix.
Previous discussion...A surface trough will cross our area
today associated with a low pressure system which will pass well to
our north. Scattered showers are expected, especially in our
northern zones and across the higher terrain. Winds will be strong
today out of the south as an 850 mb jet around 55 kts traverses our
forecast area. Strongest winds today will be in the Malone area
where downsloping off the Adirondack mountains will enhance the wind
speeds there, some gusts up to 40 kts are possible. The winds will
also be strong on Lake Champlain where we`ll have channeled flow.
Winds will gust on the lake up to about 35 kts. Our region should
stay just below wind advisory criteria which is 46 mph gusts. As
surface trough crosses our area today winds will veer from southerly
to westerly. As the winds become out of the west, the strongest
winds will be focused on the eastern side of the terrain due to
downsloping, so eastern Adirondacks into the western Champlain
Valley and then east of the spine of the Greens, especially south-
central portions of Vermont. Expect scattered activity to develop
during the afternoon as low level lapse rates steepen due to cold
air advection. Some of the afternoon showers could be briefly heavy,
and with the aforementioned gusty winds, blowing snow will be a
concern, as well. Snow accumulations will be generally 2 inches or
less, with most accumulations confined to the northern Adirondacks
and the Greens. Maximum temperatures today will range from the lower
30s to upper 30s. Showers will wind down as we head into the
overnight hours and temperatures will then dip into the mid teens to
mid 20s. Winds will also weaken as system moves out of our area.
Winds will pick up once again on Thursday ahead of next approaching
system as pressure gradient tightens between approaching system to
our west and departing system to our east. With southerly flow in
place on Thursday, temperatures will warm into the 40s areawide, and
precipitation will hold off until the overnight hours. An 850 mb jet
around 65-70 kts will cross overhead, leading to surface winds
gusting as high as 40s kts in the Champlain valley closest to Lake
Champlain where we will have channeled flow, and also on the
downslope side of the northern Adirondacks near Malone. Surface
inversion may prevent these winds from completely mixing down the
surface. Temperatures rise above freezing early Thursday morning,
and that starts our tally of thawing degree hours as we head into 2
additional warm periods.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM EST Wednesday...As mentioned above, Thursday night and
Friday will feature a continuation of warm temperatures, and
accumulating thawing degree hours all the way through the day
Friday. Deep saturation will occur and precipitation will spread
northward into our area beginning Thursday night with a digging
upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes region, and
surface low passing to our north. At the onset of the precipitation
we could see rain, snow or a mix of the two, but warm air will
change all precipitation over to rain fairly quickly. The heaviest
rainfall will be during the daytime hours on Friday. Minimum
temperatures on Thursday night will only dip into the mid 30s to
around 40. Gusty winds will continue out of the south. Friday will
be very warm ahead of the cold frontal passage, with maximum
temperatures reaching the mid 40s to lower 50s. Rain spreads
eastward across our forecast area, and may become heavy at times.
Rainfall totals from Thursday night through Friday will range from
about a half an inch near Massena up to an inch across most of
Vermont. As rain, heavy at times, falls on snowpack we could see
some widespread ground fog, though the stronger winds in place could
preclude this fog formation. As cold front pushes across our area
from west to east on Friday, cold air will change precipitation from
rain to snow, by 18z over the Adirondacks and 21z across the
northern Greens. Snow levels will continue to fall which will keep
upslope snow showers ongoing. Need to continue to monitor potential
for a flash freeze with strong cold air advection. The amount of
rain that falls along with snowmelt from up to 38 hrs with
temperatures above freezing, will lead to some rises on area rivers
and streams.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 AM EST Wednesday...The Friday low will continue to occlude
across north central Quebec with the cold front and associated
moisture axis shifting eastward into portions of Maine Friday night
into Saturday morning. Our flow pattern will turn to the
west/northwest favoring chances for upslope snow showers,
particularly across the central and northern Greens. With our flow
from the west, a lake effect band off Lake Ontario will shift south
Friday night with only extreme portions of St. Lawrence County in
New York seeing some residual snow before the flow pattern relaxes
and the band shift south out of the area by Saturday morning.
Temperatures Friday night will fall some 30-40 degrees from the
daytime highs on Friday into the upper single digits in the
Adirondacks to low to mid teens elsewhere. While the overarching
trough shifts east overnight, gusts will still be up to 20-30 MPH
Friday night before the tough fully clears the region. Consequently,
with the falling temperatures, wind chills will be in the single
digits above and below zero for most locations. Temperatures will
return to more seasonable levels, though still on the cooler side
for the remainder of the weekend. Additional chances of
precipitation will continue Sunday as a clipper system rides along
the International Border with periods of light snow as temperatures
look to stay below freezing for much of the day. Brief ridging will
build in for Monday with some cloud clearing in southern Vermont.
Overnight lows through the extended will be near 0 outside of
locations around Lake Champlain. Snow chances return Tuesday into
Wednesday with a weak frontal system. As it stands, any holiday
travel plans should not have much in the way of impacts next week
aside from some brief chances for light snowfall, mainly near the
International Border and higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...A subtle shortwave is passing through the
region associated with a warm front. While most sites are VFR,
scattered pockets of lower clouds are trailing the warm front at
RUT/SLK/MSS with cigs 2000-3000ft agl. Over the next few hours,
these lower ceilings will become widespread at all terminals by
midday with some IFR possible at SLK to 700ft agl. Southerly winds
are already gusting to 30-35 kts at BTV from channeled flow with 20-
30 kts at most other terminals. Gusts will become prevailing at all
terminals with daybreak and more enhanced boundary layer mixing.
These gusts are associated with a strong low level jet with 50-60 kt
flow at 2000ft agl. LLWS will be the main impact at terminals
through the next few hours. A weak cold front will usher in
precipitation chances by midday, with the best chances at
MSS/SLK/EFK. PROB30 and VCSH groups were used at most other
terminals due to low moisture content at the surface and strong
dynamical process that should limit precipitation in the wider
valleys. Precipitation will start off as rain with temperatures
rising above freezing today, but will change over to snow by this
evening with the cold front passage. Runways may be slick on bare
surfaces once temperatures fall back to freezing this evening.
Ceilings will improve back towards VFR generally around midnight at
all sites outside of SLK which could hang onto some lower moisture a
bit longer than other terminals. EFK still remains on a AMD NOT SKED
procedure.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite RA, Likely SN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have increased as anticipated with frequent gusts exceeding
25kts around the lake shore of Lake Champlain. Speeds will only
increase tonight, so expect deteriorating conditions on Lake
Champlain with wave heights increasing from 1 to 3 feet to 2 to 4
feet through Wednesday. More winds are anticipated Thursday, so this
will likely be an extended period of rough lake conditions.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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