142
FXUS61 KBTV 190602
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
102 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Clear and calm conditions will continue today and into tomorrow as
high pressure persists overhead. Some chances for showers returning
Friday in association with a fast moving front. Seasonable late
November conditions will resume for the rest of the weekend followed
by another quick moving system on Monday that will be the start
of several chances for precipitation next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 AM EST Wednesday...Temperatures are about 10 to 15 degrees
below normal in portions of New York as strong radiational cooling
is taking place this morning. Saranac Lake has fallen to 10F at this
hour as the recent snow pack and clear skies allow for efficient
radiative cooling. This morning will likely be the coldest morning
of the season. Coupled with this radiative cooling, some isolated
patchy freezing fog has developed in the cold hollows of the
Adirondacks and near the spine of the Greens based on webcams.
Freezing fog will be fairly short lived and limited spatially.
Morning commuters may have to scrap some frost or ice off their
windshields this morning, but no additional impacts are expected.
High pressure overhead today will continue a recent dry and
seasonably cool trend. General zonal flow will keep temperatures
today relatively seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 30s with
some low 40s across southern Vermont. Westerly winds will be light
only up to 5 mph. While not quite as clear as yesterday, numerous
breaks in the clouds will allow most of the area to be mostly sunny
with a few terrain driven cumulus over the adirondacks and northern
Greens. The best chance for widespread blue sky will be across
portions of Rutland and Windsor Counties in Vermont. While some
moisture associated with a transient low moves across the Mid-
Atlantic this morning and afternoon, northerly flow aloft will keep
any shower activity well to our south out of the region. Clouds will
be on the increase tonight as our flow pattern becomes a little more
southwesterly drawing in some higher clouds from a developing weak
system across the Central Plains. Another somewhat decent setup for
radiative cooling looks possible tonight with calm winds. However,
some increased cloud cover will limit cooling to the levels we will
see this morning. Albeit tonights lows will fall into the mid to
upper teens to low 20s. Thursday will be more cloudy than today with
a few breaks possible in southern Vermont late Thursday.
Temperatures Thursday will continue to be on the rise with highs in
the upper 30s to low 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 AM EST Wednesday...Cloud cover associated with an
approaching fast moving frontal system will keep temperatures
Thursday night from falling too far with values in the low to mid
20s and near 30 in the Champlain Valley. Precipitation chances will
increase by sunrise Friday morning. With temperatures still
beginning to rebound with weak diurnal heating, some of the
precipitation may initially fall as snow, especially in the
mountains. A wintry mix cannot be ruled out as some global models
still show model soundings that fluctuate about the 0C line, and
depict some glaze potential in the Adirondacks Friday morning. Any
wintry precipitation will solely be driven by surface temperatures
as temperatures aloft will be warming above 0C with waa from the
southwest. As warm air surges north, any showers will quickly change
over to all rain through the day Friday. It will take a bit more
time for the mountains to fully switch over, however, snow level
forecasts show even mountain summits may change over to all rain for
a period of time. A split in the jet stream will help to limit the
overall precipitation amounts Friday, with a more scattered feel to
the precipitation. A high-PoP, low QPF setup looks more reasonable
than a full widespread wetting rain. The bulk of the moisture looks
to be wrapped up into a developing low across the Mid-Atlantic in
Virginia and Maryland where a secondary jet streak looks more
favorable. Showers will begin to quickly taper off and become more
confined to the upslope regions and Northeast Kingdom by late
Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 AM EST Wednesday...Unremarkable weather is expected through
this period associated with neutral teleconnections and a split
upper air pattern with open waves that will limit moisture or
temperature advection. Seasonably cold air, modest winds, and at
least partial sunshine, should support outdoor activities, such as
early winter season sports. Broad cyclonic flow will be present, but
unlike last week shortwaves will mainly stay well to our north. When
they graze our area, some high elevation snow showers and valley
rain showers will become possible, with slightly greater chances
late Sunday and again Monday night. Temperatures will trend slightly
warmer each day from Saturday through Monday, with highs edging from
slightly below to slightly above normal for this time of year.
Temperatures are relatively uncertain for Tuesday, although general
consensus is for highs coming in a little lower than on Monday. The
cooler conditions would probably lead to slightly higher chances for
snow showers than any other day of this period. Relatedly,
probabilities for only an inch of snowfall from Friday night through
Monday evening is as high as 40% in the northern Green Mountain
summits, and is about the same or slightly greater in just the
Monday night to Tuesday evening period.
The more interesting weather early next week will be over the
southern portion of the US, as a closed low over the Southwest
ejects eastward with Gulf response and an intensifying jet streak
that should help intensify a low pressure system to our south. As
that system moves northeastward, it will become our next chance for
significant weather, likely in the form of rain given lack of polar
air interaction, possibly as early as Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions through the period with
high pressure and associated light winds, generally west/northwest,
trending southerly after 00Z mainly at MSS. There have been stubborn
low clouds near EFK which continue to bring periods of lower
ceilings near 3000 feet. Probabilities of MVFR for a given hour only
peak near 30% and finally diminish after 13Z. Elsewhere, while fog
cannot be ruled out such that intermittent BR occurs at sites like
MSS and MPV around sunrise, think SLK has shown its hand and some
additional BR, with brief IFR visibilities, will continue there
through about 10Z. With similar conditions over the next 24 hours,
have shown 4SM BR returning at 01Z.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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