311
FXUS61 KBTV 081824
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
224 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 224 PM EDT Monday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 224 PM EDT Monday...
1. Seasonably warm and sunny conditions will continue this
afternoon and tomorrow, with possible fog overnight.
2. Warm and humid weather is expected towards the latter half
of next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms.
3. Cooler over the weekend into next week with a few shower
chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 224 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonably warm weather will prevail this afternoon and
tomorrow as the region remains under the influence of high pressure
overhead. Sunny and dry conditions continue this afternoon, with
high temperatures climbing into the upper 70s and low 80s with
relative humidity values dropping into the 25 to 30 percent range.
Another night of good radiational cooling will allow for overnight
lows to drop into the mid 40s and mid 50s. Fog development overnight
will be possible again, but it`s expected to be less widespread
given the drier conditions today, mainly confined to the more
favored locations.
Another seasonably warm and dry day is expected for tomorrow.
Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer in comparison
to today as the ridge axis shifts eastward, with high temperatures
climbing into the 80s areawide.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A messy weather pattern is expected for the latter half
of next week as southerly flow continues to usher in warm and humid
conditions. An embedded upper level trough looks to push through the
region on Wednesday, bringing shower chances to the region. These
showers will limit how warm temperatures climb during the day, with
highs generally expected to be in the 70s and low 80s. Despite the
trough pushing through, the lack of instability and forcing will
limit thunderstorm potential. Warm and humid conditions are expected
to continue through the end of the week, with Thursday and Friday
likely being the warmest days. High temperatures look to climb into
the 80s and possibly the lower 90s, with dewpoints in the 60s making
it feel quite muggy, although any shower development may impact how
warm temperatures are able to reach. Overnight lows look to stay on
the warmer side as well, only dropping into the upper 50s and 60s
which will provide little relief from the heat. With such a humid
airmass across the region, there look to be daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms through end the week.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Large scale troughing slowly builds into the region
this weekend and into next week, gradually lowering temperatures and
bringing multiple rounds of shower chances. While any concerns for
heat headlines will end with the cold front on Friday, the trough
and the associated cooler air will build in gradually so it will be
longer before it feels fully refreshing. After any lingering showers
clear sometime Friday night behind the first shortwave, Saturday
looks to be mostly dry and still relatively warm. The next shortwave
looks to come through Sunday with another chance for showers,
knocking the temperatures down a bit more behind it. By the start of
next week, the dew points look to be in the 50s and highs look to be
in the 70s and low 80s. Another shortwave with associated showers is
possible for Monday or Tuesday. These shortwaves all look to be
quick moving so there are currently not any flooding concerns.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will mostly prevail for the next
24 hours. The only exception could be tonight when patchy fog
formation is expected in the region. Right now, the probability of
the fog specifically reaching any of the terminals is relatively
low, maybe around 20-25 percent for MPV and SLK. Elsewhere, fog is
not expected. Any fog should lift by 13Z and VFR conditions will
persist for the rest of the day. Light and variable winds will
continue through tonight, with some minor terrain effects. Winds
will become southerly tomorrow, and gusts in the 5 to 15 KT range
are expected at BTV and PBG.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Kremer
AVIATION...Myskowski
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