027
FXUS61 KBTV 161132
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
732 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will continue to support chances of
showers and thunderstorms over the next several days. The greatest
potential for precipitation will be late Friday and again on
Saturday afternoon, with cooler conditions arriving on Sunday that
will linger into the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 722 AM EDT Friday...No major adjustments needed to the
forecast this morning, with fog and stratus across the region
slowly dissipating. Temperatures have remained warm overnight,
already sitting in the 60s in most locations and 70 here at BTV.

Previous Discussion...An upper level low centered over the
Great Lakes will continue to meander eastward, with several
associated frontal boundaries and shortwaves moving through the
region, bringing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
both today and Saturday. Patchy fog has developed across parts
of the region this morning, but should quickly dissipate after
sunrise. Daytime highs will continue to be warm, with another
day of upper 70s and low 80s expected across the region. By the
afternoon, conditions look to become more favorable for
convective development, with CAPE values in excess of 500 J/kg
across most of the region. Looking at model soundings, heavy
rainfall and some slower-moving storms look to be the main
concern this afternoon. Shower activity will wane Friday night,
although a few lingering showers may be possible. Overnight lows
will continue to be on the mild and muggy side, only dropping
into the mid 50s and 60s.

The showery and active pattern continues into Saturday with several
rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms expected, with the
first round of showers moving through in the early morning and then
additional convection in the afternoon. There is still some
uncertainty in regards to how Saturday plays out, especially given
the multiple rounds of precipitation. The latest HREF guidance
suggests that cloud cover may linger throughout much of the day
Saturday, which may limit any convection for Saturday afternoon. If
enough clearing is able to take place by the early afternoon, there
could be enough instability for a few stronger to locally severe
thunderstorms to develop, with SPC maintaining a Marginal Risk
across the region for Saturday. With plenty of moisture available,
any storms that do develop will likely feature heavy rainfall.
Between both Friday and Saturday, rainfall amounts between 0.50 and
1.0 inches can be expected, with locally higher amounts possible
within thunderstorms. WPC does have a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall across the region for both Friday and Saturday given the
potential for heavy rainfall and slower storm motions, but there are
no flood concerns at this time. Temperatures during the Saturday
will continue to be on the warm side, generally in the 70s to near
80 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 407 AM EDT Friday...The second half of the weekend will feature
a drastic shift as an upper low pivots directly over our forecast
area. Remnants of Saturday`s showers and thunderstorms will quickly
exit to the east Saturday night, but any break in the precipitation
will be fairly short lived. The upper low will swing down along or
just south of the international border late Saturday night through
Sunday, and expect a resurgence of showers in response. Winds will
turn to the west and eventually northwest as the low moves to our
east, ushering in a much colder airmass. Highs on Sunday will likely
only be in the mid 50s to low 60s, with perhaps some places
locations in the southern Champlain Valley/CT River Valley nudging
into the mid 60s. Showers will become focused in the northern
mountains by Sunday afternoon. Winds will be a touch gusty, but not
overly so with gusts generally topping out around 25 mph. Showers
will wane Sunday night as we lose daytime heating, though still
expect at least scattered precipitation overnight. Lows will mainly
be in the 40s, though the Adirondacks could dip into the upper 30s
by early Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 407 AM EDT Friday...The cool and showery weather will persist
through at least Monday as we remain on the western periphery of the
upper low. Highs on both Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s,
though some of the colder spots in the Adirondacks and east of the
Green Mountains could well struggle to get out of the 40s,
especially on Monday. The pattern becomes more uncertain thereafter,
with guidance indicating a complex interplay between an upper
shortwave digging into the Great Lakes/near Hudson Bay while another
upper trough moving into the Midwest, perhaps phasing into a cutoff
low somewhere over the eastern CONUS. The main theme is that shower
chances will continue through much of the week, and temperatures
will remain below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z SATURDAY...VFR conditions currently prevailing at
most terminals, with all terminals expected to trend VFR in a
few hours as lingering IFR at KMPV and KEFK from fog and low
clouds dissipates. Shower activity with some possible embedded
thunderstorms will increase throughout the afternoon, with some
heavier showers possibly bringing reduced flight conditions at
times. Winds will generally be southerly between 5 and 10 knots
throughout the forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Kremer