486
FXUS61 KBTV 211147
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
647 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snowfall will continue through much of today before
tapering off this afternoon. High pressure will be moving into
with strong cold air advection and breezy winds this afternoon
through Sunday resulting in frigid wind chill temperatures
tonight into Sunday morning. Winds decrease Sunday with cold air
lingering through Monday. The next weather system to impact the
region will move through Monday night and Tuesday bringing more
snowfall and potential for periods of difficult travel
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 639 AM EST Saturday...

* A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect starting at midnight
  tonight and continuing through 9 AM Sunday morning for the
  communities of the Adirondacks. Dangerous wind chill
  temperatures between -15 and -25 degrees are expected.


The forecast is on track with mainly light snow falling across
the North Country. Per water vapor imagery, the area of synoptic
lift is shifting eastward with forcing mechanism beginning to
transition to more of an upslope regime. It`ll take another 3-6
hrs for synoptic forcing to exit, then we`ll see snow rates
decreasing further from what is occurring this morning and shift
more to slope locations. The exception will be western Addison
County where a lake streamer has set up and could produce 2-3
inches of snow this morning. Otherwise, winds are increasing
with conditions becoming brisk.

Previous Discussion...The main change to the forecast was to
linger upslope snowfall across the northwestern Adirondacks and
northern Green Mountains through this afternoon into the
overnight hours. Another 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation will
be possible with a dry, fluffy character. Otherwise, the
primary concern through Sunday will be for frigid temperatures
across the North Country as an anomalously strong 1030-1040mb
high pressure moves through the region. Temperatures combining
with some breezes to around 20 mph tonight will create
dangerously cold wind chill temperatures for the communities in
the Adirondacks; -15 to -25 degree wind chills are expected
tonight through Sunday morning. Additionally, those with plans
for recreation at higher elevations of the Adirondacks and
Greens should expect colder wind chills generally -30 to just
less than -40 degrees. Frostbite and hypothermia are the main
concerns to those that are not properly dressed for these
conditions. Elsewhere, -5 to
-15 wind chills are anticipated. Winds will slow Sunday with the
center of the high overhead. Ambient maximum temperatures for
Sunday will be cold with highs struggling in the single digits
above zero to mid teens in the Champlain Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 401 AM EST Saturday...High pressure will remain situated across
the region Sunday night into Monday, bringing clear and cold
conditions. Overnight lows will plummet into the single digits above
and below zero across the region, with locations in the Adirondacks
even colder with ideal radiational cooling and recent snowpack.
These temperatures will be nearly 20 degrees colder than
climatological normals for this time of year. Winds look to remain
relatively light with the high directly overhead, but temperatures
will still be frigid so anyone that may be venturing outside should
take extra care to limit their exposure to the cold and stay warm.

Monday will start out dry with high pressure shifting eastward, with
increasing cloud cover through the day as our next system approaches
the region. Temperatures will continue to be below normal, but will
be warmer compared to Sunday, with daytime highs climbing into the
teens and lower 20s. Chances for precipitation will gradually
increase throughout the morning, with snow showers reaching the St.
Lawrence Valley by Monday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 401 AM EST Saturday...Another round of widespread snowfall will
arrive Monday night into Tuesday as a shortwave traverses across the
region, continuing to bring the likelihood of a white Christmas to
the region. Precipitation will arrive across northern New York
Monday evening and slowly progress eastward across Vermont Tuesday.
There are still some uncertainties as to how quickly precipitation
will end, with more progressive solutions having precipitation
ending by Tuesday evening while others show snow showers lingering
into Christmas Day.

After this system, a blocking pattern looks to develop with a
pronounced ridge settling over New England. This pattern will bring a
period of dry weather for the latter half of the work week. Daytime
highs will generally be in the low to mid 30s, with overnight lows
in the teens to lower 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12 Sunday...Widespread MVFR and spottier IFR is
occurring with snow falling across the North Country. Winds
increasing aloft will continue to limit IFR for most terminals
outside of an intermittent heavier shower. Further improvement
is expected as synoptic forcing for showers begins to exit now
through 18Z with lifting mechanism transitions to an upslope
regime with continued mountain obscurations. Winds will
predominantly be from the northwest with gusts 15-20kts through
the day before decreasing 00-06Z. Mountain snow showers are
expected to linger through 03Z with potential for continued
light snow at SLK for much of this forecast period.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN, Slight
chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Christmas Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Boyd