930
FXUS61 KBTV 171859
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
159 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 130 PM EST Saturday...Light snow will come to an end
later this evening. Confidence is increasing for possibility of
snow squalls Monday afternoon into the evening, especially in
northern New York.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 130 PM EST Saturday...

1. Light snow will be winding down this evening as drier air
moves into our area. A Winter Weather Advisory in effect for
Rutland and Windsor counties until 7 pm.

2. Winds will become strong out of the southwest on Monday
ahead of approaching cold front, with snow squalls possible
ahead of the cold front during the afternoon into the evening.

3. An unseasonably cold and unsettled pattern is expected for
next week with multiple chances for snow and temperatures
possibly sub-zero at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 130 PM EST Saturday...

.KEY MESSAGE 1: Light snow continues this afternoon and will
wind down this evening. Low level flow will then become more
southwesterly and some snow showers off of Lake Ontario are
possible in the southern St Lawrence valley and into the
Adirondacks. A few inches of snow is possible in the most
persistent snow bands. Temperatures overnight will drop into the
teens to mid 20s. Quieter weather will then return through
early Monday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: On Monday another low pressure system will pass
from the northern Great Lakes area, northeastward and well
north of our area. Tighten pressure gradient will lead to gusty
winds out of the south southwest on Monday. Models currently
support surface gusts 30-40 mph in the St Lawrence Valley and
around 30 mph for the northern Champlain Valley. Deep mixing is
present in model soundings with a 5kft+ depth of saturation.
Coupled with modest CAPE and a passing trough, there could be a
few squalls in northern New York as bursts of lake enhanced snow
showers move through. These gusts could support periods of
blowing snow resulting in an extended period of poor visibility
for portions of northern New York while allowing for lighter
snow showers to penetrate into northern Vermont. Just getting
into the window of the NAMnest which is supportive of this
possibility.

.KEY MESSAGE 3: Overall pattern Tues through Saturday is cold,
cyclonic flow with multiple cold fronts replenishing cold air
with light snow-snow showers on several days but no big storm
attm.

First one has pushed through the area by Tuesday with flow
backing a bit more westerly for Lake Effect Snow band across
Lake Ontario. Initially mainly south of forecast area but with
this initial shortwave exiting and more backing flow ahead of
next strong shortwave look for band to rotate north into our
area.

Surface low travels NW of area across Ontario-Quebec with some
warm air advection light snow Wed ngt with sharpening upper trof
and arctic front moving across for Thursday with snow showers
and possibly some snow squalls as well. This sharpening trof and
strong temperature discontinuity off the east coast will likely
develop a coastal storm but too far east for any impacts in our
area.

By Friday...flow becomes WSW again with surface high across the
area and lighter winds. Rinse and repeat Friday night-Saturday
with a weaker shortwave but surface wave on the backside of
ridge for another chance of light snow late Friday-Friday night
before another cold front on Saturday.

Attm...there are discrepancies on whether we get hit with more
arctic air or does the main core stay north into Ontario-Quebec
next weekend-early next week. The main story is this cold
pattern is likely to continue for some time as CPC has area
likely below normal through Days 8-14.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...A developing wave of low pressure to our
east is helping organize an area of snow on its northwestern
flank. This snow will be steady primarily at terminals in
Vermont from RUT to MPV to EFK through much of the next six
hours, tapering off gradually most likely between 22Z and 00Z.
At BTV, a shorter duration of snow is possible, although
confidence is relatively low with PROB30 utilized. On the
western fringe of the precipitation shield, from SLK to PBG,
probabilities of snow are even lower and expect only brief
periods of IFR conditions associated with this precipitation
could occur. Very light snow has been falling at MSS with
localized northeasterly flow, and do not see much change over
the next several hours at this terminal. Areawide, character of
snow will tend to be fluffy, especially when it falls more
heavily, rather than wet.

Past 00Z, while precipitation chances diminish, another area of
low pressure will pass to our northwest and help produce some
gusty winds over northern New York, most notably at MSS where
gusts over 30 knots are possible as soon as 03Z but especially
around 05Z when probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 30 knots
peaks. Gusty southwest winds are also probable at SLK, while
other sites are less likely to mix these winds to the surface.
Ceilings throughout the period will be variable but be a mix of
VFR and MVFR.


Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN, Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ011-
     019>021.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Neiles/SLW
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV