455
FXUS61 KBTV 101949
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
349 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 256 PM EDT Wednesday...
Heat Advisory was expanded to included eastern Windsor County.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorm chances continue through
Friday. Risk of stronger thunderstorms is primarily Friday
afternoon/evening.
2. Humid and increasingly hot through Friday, then dry and
seasonably warm on Saturday. Impactful heat possible on Friday.
3. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
Sunday with temperatures cooling towards normal early next week and
shower chances continue.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A messy weather pattern, with subtle forcing for
only somewhat organized showers and thunderstorms, will persist
today and Thursday. The first of these systems, featuring a
narrow upper level trough, is enough to spark increasingly
numerous showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon through
tonight. The near storm environment has plentiful instability,
with near 2000 J/kg CAPE, but low shear (near or less than 20
knots of effective shear - this is leading to pulse type of
thunderstorms with brief heavy rain and lightning as expected
hazards. Deep layer shear will increase a bit tonight concurrent
with a very weak trough passing through, so a period of more
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms is expected.
These showers should generally progress west to east through
most of northern New York and Vermont, clearing eastern Vermont
after midnight.
For Thursday, the potential for more non-severe thunderstorms
continues to be lower compared to today, but somewhat uncertain.
Mid-level warming and some slight height rises during the day
will reduce surface-based instability compared to today.
Lingering troughiness in northeastern Vermont may support
cloudier conditions compared to areas farther south and west.
Differential heating related to this boundary or other
boundaries that develop will help act as a trigger potentially
for thunderstorms, especially later in the day and evening as
the next weak trough moves in from the west. The greatest
forcing and organized thunderstorm activity appears to be
focused well to our south with this system, where much greater
instability is expected. As such, chances for widespread
thunderstorms appears low at this time.
The severe thunderstorm risk for Friday is very unclear
at this time, with higher confidence in organized stronger storms
capable of damaging winds farther south from central New York
towards the Mid-Atlantic states. The Storm Prediction Center`s
slight risk was expanded eastward, likely be due to greater
probabilities of severe wind. In northern New York and Vermont,
relative to areas to the south, the signals are more mixed.
Some machine learning guidance is very aggressive in the risk of
severe thunderstorms associated with this system (such as the
GEFS 30-45% chance across Vermont), but others focus.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A seasonably warm and humid air mass is present and will
modify slightly until a cold front sweeps eastward across the
eastern US Friday night. There has been about a 2 degree warm bias
in the NBM maximum temperatures recently, with these biases
decreasing with forecasting lead time. However, based on the
observed temperatures this afternoon, this issue may be
lessening as temperatures have managed to warm near or above
this guidance. Therefore, confidence is relatively low on the
degree of heat for tomorrow when much of the forecast data
suggests temperatures should be a couple of degrees warmer.
Cloud cover and lingering showers tomorrow are limiting factors
to produce sub-Heat Advisory criteria. Partly sunny skies are
generally expected, and if this winds up being on the sunnier
side along with dew points remaining elevated again in the upper
60s to lower 70s in most locations, impactful heat will be
possible as heat indices approach the low to mid 90s.
Greater confidence in these types of heat indices continue on
Friday when Heat Advisories are in effect in portions of our
region, as a more pronounced ridge aloft will support sunshine
and warmer air aloft. Valley temperatures will more easily reach
into the low to mid 90s with deeper mixing, such that even with
slightly lowering dew points feel 95 or higher heat index
values are more likely. Additionally, the cumulative effect of
hot and humid conditions will make for more significant impacts
than on Thursday. That being said, given early season heat,
precautions should be taken with regards to proper hydration and
clothing to stay safe each of the next couple of days.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Multi-layer low pressure will be swirling over Ontario
and Quebec by the end of the weekend, swinging a cold front through
the Northeast on Sunday. This will mean above normal temperatures
Saturday night with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s, then one more
day of above normal temps on Sunday ahead of the frontal passage.
Highs Sunday are expected to reach up to the mid 70s and 80s before
falling with the frontal passage. Model consensus shows the cold
front moving through rapidly on Sunday, bringing showers (up to 30-
60% chance of measurable precip in a given location) and the
potential for a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Following the
front, we`ll see temperatures return to near or below normal early
next week with highs in the upper 60s and 70s, as well as lows in
the upper 40s and 50s. Dew points will also be relatively low in the
mid 40s to lower 50s each afternoon. Showers chances will remain a
steady 20-50% throughout the early work week as cyclonic flow
continues to throw shortwaves through the region.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms each day
through Friday. Chances for showers increase this afternoon as low
pressure tracks through the northern Great Lakes, pushing a weak
front through the region. While the front is not supported by a
strong thermal gradient, height falls will be sufficient to increase
chances of thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening hours. Some
showers/thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall. Should a
thunderstorm move directly over a terminal, IFR VIS/CIGs will be
possible. Showers and thunderstorms are most likely starting in the
next hour or two at MSS, then tracking eastward towards SLK and PBG
around 21Z-22Z Wednesday, then reaching BTV and RUT around 00Z
Thursday and the other Vermont sites shortly after. Moisture lingers
after 00Z supporting lowering ceilings with potential for widespread
IFR after 03-06Z at SLK, MPV, EFK, and MSS. Elsewhere is more likely
MVFR overnight, but not out of the question we see some IFR cigs or
even some patchy fog development in areas that see a sufficient rain
this afternoon. We anticipate ceilings will return to widespread
MVFR levels by 12Z-15Z, though slightly sooner is possible depending
on how quickly the atmosphere can mix Thursday morning.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
June 12:
KBTV: 94/2017
KMPV: 88/2017
KMSS: 89/2005
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 11:
KBTV: 71/2017
June 12:
KBTV: 71/2017
KPBG: 67/2017
KSLK: 62/1996
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ001-002-005-
009-011-021.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Storm/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Storm
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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