212
FXUS61 KBTV 121924
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
324 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...
Latest thinking is that we may see some strong thunderstorms,
but unlikely to see severe.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...
1. Strong thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening and
again on Sunday.
2. Cooler for much of next week with a few shower chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The Heat Advisory remains in effect till 8 PM
for the Champlain Valley in Vermont and New York as well as the
lower Connecticut River Valley where the highest heat indices
are expected. Slightly cooler air will filter in behind a cold
front for this weekend. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday
will only be in the 80s with dewpoints down in the 50s instead
of the 60s. Another cold front will move through on Sunday which
will bring much more seasonal air to the region to start the
week with high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s on
Monday. On Sunday, a stronger cold front will move through
during the afternoon hours and bring an abrupt pattern change to
more seasonal temperatures. The strong thermal gradient
associated with the cold front will yield strong
frontogenesis/convergence along the frontal boundary and help
interact with a sufficiently unstable air mass with more deep
layer shear than is present today. The AI models and machine
learning algorithms are actually flagging Sunday to be the more
active severe weather day which fits the conceptual model of a
strong change in air mass equating to stronger thunderstorms.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Large scale troughing will be established over
the region for much of next week, bringing seasonably cool
temperatures and several rounds of shower chances as shortwaves
pivot around the longwave. Diurnal heating will help increase
the shower chances in the afternoon a bit due to the cool air
aloft. However, most of the time it will be dry. There is the
potential for a more organized area of low pressure to move
through late next week, likely sometime in the Thursday
timeframe. GEFS, EPS and CMCE combined ensemble probabilities of
more than an inch and two inches of total rain are 60-90
percent and 10-30 percent respectively. The rounds precipitation
currently look to be light enough and moving quick enough to
prevent much of a flooding threat.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions will mostly prevail for
the next 24 hours. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms
will move across the region from west to east this afternoon and
early evening. The heavier showers/stronger storms will cause
frequent lightning, have gusty and erratic winds, and could
briefly lower the visibility to IFR. The probability that any of
these storms reaches a specific terminal is probably between
25-35 percent. After these storms move out this evening, VFR
conditions should prevail through tomorrow. There is a low (~20
percent) chance that fog forms late tonight at MPV, SLK or EFK
if they receive steady rain this afternoon. Winds will generally
be southwesterly to westerly today, becoming westerly to
northwesterly tomorrow. Winds and gusts in the 5-15 KT range are
expected today and tomorrow, with locally higher gusts this
afternoon. LLWS should occur at RUT and SLK for a few hours late
tonight and early tomorrow morning.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
June 12:
KBTV: 94/2017
KMPV: 88/2017
KPBG: 94/2017
KMSS: 89/2005
KSLK: 90/1933
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 12:
KBTV: 71/2017
KPBG: 67/2017
KSLK: 62/1996
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001-002-005-
009-011-021.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Myskowski
AVIATION...Myskowski
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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