292
FXUS61 KBTV 241424
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1024 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and associated pleasant weather will exit this
afternoon as a brief shortwave brings scattered showers and
thunderstorm chances this afternoon/evening. Better chances for
widespread wetting rain will arrive Friday afternoon into
Saturday associated with a frontal system. Dry and warming
conditions will follow for the start of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1017 AM EDT Thursday...The current forecast continues to
be in good shape, with only a few minor adjustments to sky cover
and temperatures this morning. After a cool start, temperatures
have been warming up nicely with most locations in the 50s to
low 60s as high pressure continues to shift eastward.
Previous Discussion...High pressure will continue to dominate
the area this morning with some high clouds ahead of an
approaching shortwave. Temperatures will be fairly cold towards
dawn with strong radiational cooling ongoing across portions of
the Adirondacks under clear skies. Winds will continue to be on
the calm side and shift towards the south becoming breezy by the
afternoon. Efficient mixing will help to keep dew point
depressions tomorrow up to 20F which dry out most of the area.
CAM soundings suggest this mixing up to 700mb with boundary
layer top gusts 25-30 mph. However, these gusts arrive with the
shortwave and associated precipitation chances, which could
inhibit efficient mixing down to the surface.
A warm front will translate northward working into a fairly dry
airmass. Model agreement is in decent consensus in an initial
area of showers across the northern slopes of the Adirondacks
and along the international border during the early afternoon
today. CAMS suggest a second area of showers, centered more over
the Adirondacks and Champlain Valley, in the later afternoon.
This second round will work into a region of higher elevated
instability along the warm front with modest isentropic lift.
GEFS mean CAPE values between 100-300 J/kg, with some CAM values
of 300+ J/kg, would be sufficient for some rumbles of thunder
particularly over the Adirondacks and in southern VT. Given how
dry the air is ahead of these showers, chances for measurable
precipitation is low. The location of any precipitation will
impact high temperatures and any gusty winds. Locations seeing
precipitation will trend towards highs in the low to mid 60s and
more calm conditions, with drier locations seeing highs in the
upper 60s and low 70s and gustier winds. In general temperatures
will be higher towards the south with overall winds expected to
be 15-20 mph.
Thunderstorm and rain chances decrease quickly overnight as the
shortwave races to the east with cloud cover remaining across
the area. Given this cloud cover, temperatures tonight will only
fall to the mid to upper 40s, with low 40s in the typical cold
spots of the Adirondacks. Friday will be dry to start, but
precipitation chances return by the afternoon as a surface low
will track out of the Great Lakes. Some rumbles of thunder from
elevated instability are possible areawide Friday
afternoon along a warm frontal feature. Temperatures Friday
will be near identical to today with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 336 AM EDT Thursday...Unsettled weather will prevail for the
first half of the weekend as an upper trough digs into the Great
Lakes. The associated surface low will lift northward through the
eastern Great Lakes Friday night. Showers will spread across our
region overnight and continue into Saturday morning as a warm front
crosses on a 50+ kt 850mb southwesterly jet. Surface based
instability will wane overnight, but there could still be some
thunderstorms given strong frontogenetical forcing. The low will
slide eastward along or just north of the international border on
Saturday, dragging a fairly potent cold front along in its wake.
Additional showers will develop ahead of this front, and with the
continued northward trend with the low track, expect we`ll have at
least some instability develop before the front moves through. Mid-
level lapse rates are poor, so any thunderstorms would be isolated
and any severe potential unlikely, even with the plentiful shear.
Still, briefly heavy rainfall will be possible with any
thunderstorms, and perhaps some gusty winds as well. Temperatures
will fall sharply behind the front, possibly as much as 10 degrees F
or more. Winds will turn to the west/northwest and become fairly
gusty as mixing is enhanced by cold air advection. Gusts of 25 to 30
mph will be possible during the afternoon once the front moves
through the region. Widespread showers/thunderstorms will exit to
our east with the cold front, but then expect additional wrap-around
showers to develop in the west/northwest flow. This activity will
become fairly widespread overnight Saturday night as the upper
trough swings across northern NY/VT. With continuing cold air
advection, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid and upper
30s over much of the area, with only the Champlain and CT Valleys
perhaps remaining in the 40s. As such, some wet snow could mix in
with the rain showers, mainly above 1500 ft. Don`t expect any
accumulation below 2000 ft, but summits could pick up an inch or so.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 336 AM EDT Thursday...The upper low will slowly pull away from
the region on Sunday, moving from eastern VT into the Gulf of Maine.
This will make for a chilly, blustery, and showery second half of
the weekend, especially in eastern VT where highs could struggle to
get above 50F. North/northwest winds will be gusting to 25 mph, and
scattered rain showers will persist through much of the day,
especially in the northern Greens. High pressure finally builds in
by Monday, bringing drier and warmer weather for the start of the
work week. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the period as low
pressure moves up to our west and eventually well to our north, but
shower chances will increase during the afternoon/evening hours and
especially overnight as a cold front approaches and then crosses our
region from west to east. This frontal system will be pretty
progressive and high pressure will quickly build in on Wednesday,
with a return to drier conditions and cooler (though still above
normal) temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the TAF period. Current calm winds should become more
southwesterly across northern New York and southerly in Vermont
by 18Z. Wind speeds should increase slightly to 5-10 mph as a
warm front slides through the area between 17Z and 02Z. Winds
could gust 15-20 mph at times particularly at SLK/BTV/MPV as the
front cross through. In addition to breezy winds, light
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected with
the front mainly between 18Z and 00Z. While confidence in
precipitation has increased, timing and what locations will be
impacted still remain uncertain. Confidence has increased to add
PROB30s to each TAF site, however, timing will be refined in
the next TAF update.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig/Kremer
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Danzig
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