509
FXUS61 KBTV 081746
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
146 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
We are looking at an extended period of heat that is likely to
continue through at least the middle of next week. Many locations in
the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys will see at least 3 days of
90 degree temperatures with the possibility for 4 to 6 days of 90
degree temperatures. Elsewhere, temperatures will generally be in
the mid 80s to lower 90s through Wednesday. After today, we don`t
expect any rainfall across the region through the middle of next
week with high pressure overhead.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 126 PM EDT Friday...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
dissipate around sunset with clearing skies expected with the loss
of daytime convection. This will set up another good radiational
cooling night across the North Country with river valley fog
expected once again. For tonight, the most likely culprits for fog
will be along the Winooski and Connecticut River but we could see
some patchy fog anywhere where rainfall occurs; especially close to
sunset. Fog is expected to be less widespread tonight given lower
dewpoints (surface moisture) and a nocturnal jet of 10-15 knots
situated at around 1000 ft.
The warming trend will continue on Saturday with high temperatures
climbing into the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. Unlike the past
several days, we aren`t expecting and showers or thunderstorms as
increasing subsidence and warming temperatures aloft are both
expected to limit any diurnal instability. Model sounding suggest
very poor low and mid-level lapse rates may support some fair
weather cumulus but these clouds will likely have littler vertical
development due to the lack of buoyancy. Temperatures Saturday night
will be a few degrees warmer than tonight which will be a common
trend in the coming week as temperatures continue to steadily warm.
Fog is looking less likely Saturday night given an even stronger
nocturnal jet of 20 knots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 126 PM EDT Friday...Similar to Saturday, temperatures will be a
few degrees warmer than the previous day with high temperatures in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Cloud cover will be minimal given very
limited moisture within the atmosphere and weak instability as
temperatures in the mid- levels continue to warm. Some locations will
see their second consecutive 90 degree day on Sunday which begins to
introduce increased risk for heat related illness. Luckily,
dewpoints will remain in the lower 90s and will limit heat indices.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 134 PM EDT Friday...A long duration period of much above
normal temps looks to continue most of next week with NWS heat
risk in the moderate to major level across most of our region.
The peak of the heat looks to occur on Monday and Tuesday with
values in the upper 80s to mid 90s with a few valley locations
in the upper 90s possible. Initially dewpoints look to hold in
the upper 50s to lower 60s, which wl keep apparent/feel like
temps similar to actual air temps. Still heat advisories maybe
needed for parts of the area.
As south/southwest winds strengthen on backside of sfc high
pres dwpts wl increase by mid week along with humidity values.
In addition, southerly winds and higher dwpts wl result in
warming overnight lows, especially for Monday night thru midweek
with lows only in the mid 60s to l/m 70s likely. Warmest values
in the SLV and CPV during this period. Still a large spread
with regards to magnitude and timing of a potential boundary
with slightly cooler wx for mid to late next week. For now have
chc pops on Weds/Thurs with cooler air arriving by late week.
This wl continue to be fined tuned as we become closer,
especially with regards to pops and impacts on temps. No
widespread rainfall is expected in the next 5 to 7 days, so our
stretch of very dry wx continues for most valley locations.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Mostly a persistence TAF forecast
followed for the next 12 to 24 hours. Radar shows terrain driven
showers and storms are developing again. Utilized PROB30 groups
at MPV/SLK/EFK and MPV to cover this potential. Next challenge
is potential for IFR/LIFR in fog/br overnight. Greatest
probability based on LAMP probs is at MPV from 07z to 12z, with
30 to 40% probability at SLK/EFK. Did note 200 to 300 foot
winds of 5 to 10 knots at SLK, which may limit fog development,
but if a shower occurs at this site chances for fog are likely.
Have utilized tempo group for intervals of IFR btwn SLK/EFK
btwn 08-11z. Any lingering IFR will quickly improve to VFR with
light south winds developing by 13z Saturday.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
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