559
FXUS61 KBTV 161150
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
650 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered light snow showers will continue this morning and
wind down this afternoon. By mid-week, a warming trend will
begin, with temperatures above freezing expected for Wednesday
and Thursday. A stronger system will bring gusty winds and
widespread rainfall late Thursday, with colder air returning on
Friday behind a cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 206 AM EST Tuesday...Shower activity will die down
through the day today, with a mainly dry and quieter day
expected with moderating temperatures. Maximum temperatures this
afternoon will range through the 20s. Winds will become breezy
tonight into Wednesday, especially in the Champlain valley and
the higher summits of the Adirondacks and Greens. Minimum
temperatures tonight will dip into the mid teens to lower 20s,
warmest along Lake Champlain. A weak system will approach our
area for Wednesday, with the center of the low passing well
north of our area across eastern Canada. At the precipitation
onset Wednesday morning we could see some mixed precipitation,
but as the lower levels saturate temperatures will cool enough
for mainly just light snow on Wednesday. Best chances for
showers will be along the international border, and also in the
higher elevations of the northern Dacks and northern Greens.
High temperatures on Wednesday will warm into the lower 30s to
upper 30s and a changeover to rain will be expected in the
warmer valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 206 AM EST Tuesday...Showers will come to an end
Wednesday night, then we`ll have increasing southerly flow
headed into Thursday ahead of next approaching system.
Temperatures will also be quite warm on Thursday with strong
warm air advection and winds gusting, highs will reach the mid
30s to lower 40s. A strong low level jet will move overhead, and
in response winds at the surface will be quite strong and
gusty. Precipitation should hold off until Thursday night as it
moves into the area from the west.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 206 AM EST Tuesday...An impactful system with gusty
winds, rain, and snow is still on track for Friday into
Saturday. A strong low pressure system will pass over the Great
Lakes and move north of the International Border early Friday. A
robust 850mb south to north jet will aid in both moisture and
waa leading to deep layer moisture over the region. In tandem,
following a warm frontal passage mid- week, 850mb temperatures
will surge to nearly +5C which will draw surface temperatures
above freezing for even our highest peaks. Daytime Highs up to
the mid to upper 30s in the higher terrain, and near 40 to the
mid 40s elsewhere is increasingly likely. As such, as the system
moves into the region, while precipitation may start as snow in
the higher terrain, most locations will start and see all rain
through the majority of the event. As rain falls on the colder
snow pack, patchy fog from snow melt will be possible,
especially with dew points rising above freezing. How widespread
and thick the fog becomes will be determined by the overall
rainfall rates and gusts present. Pwats will be nearing 1 inch,
ushered along the moisture axis which looks most pronounced over
the Champlain Valley and the Greens. Rainfall rates could be
moderate to heavy at times, especially Friday afternoon. With
the abnormally warmer air, comes gusty winds to help mix out the
strong temperature gradient that will accompany the system. The
850mb jet will increase flow aloft to nearly 60kts at 3000ft.
Summit level gusts could see those jet gusts realized. However,
with precipitation ongoing, how much of those stronger gusts
will be mixed down to the valley floors still remains uncertain.
Current forecast shows periodic gusts to 30-40 MPH. The final
wrinkle in the forecast will be how much snow melt occurs and
what that looks like for our rivers. It`s still a little too
early to talk any kind of specific rain or snow amounts, but do
anticipate at least some modest river rises due to runoff from
both rain and snowmelt. Would not be surprised to see some
rivers reach bankfull with the rain and added snowmelt. Whether
it will be enough to flush out any of the river ice that has
formed already this season is likewise still uncertain. However,
what we have going for us, is that the recent freezing of any
ice has been short lived with generally more shallow ice than
heart of winter thicker ice, which bodes well for movement on
the rivers. There could also be a bit of freezing rain at the
onset of precipitation, particularly in eastern VT where cold
air may be tougher to scour out. Once the system shifts more to
the northeast, a cold front will help tank temperatures back
into the teens and single digits by late Friday night. Rain will
quickly change over to snow in northern New York by Friday
afternoon, and in Vermont by Friday evening. A flash freeze
could be possible over roads Friday night that are still wet
from rain and snow melt.
Winds and any heavier snow could also impact utilities. So
please stay tuned as this event draws closer, as we`ll continue
to refine the forecast as the details become more clear.
Brief high pressure will build in for Saturday with upslope
favored areas seeing continued snow showers. Another weak
clipper system will pass through the region Saturday afternoon
with mainly snow as thermal profiles favor below freezing
temperatures. More prolonged high pressure returns for the start
of next week with dry and cold conditions expected.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Main impacts this morning will be
associated with a transient weakening lake effect band in the
northern Adirondacks and a passing weak trough that is currently
over the Greens. Ceilings will generally trend towards
5000-7000ft this morning behind the trough at sites outside of
SLK. VFR at all sites should prevail through much of the day at
sites outside of SLK/EFK/MSS. The lake effect band will weaken
and rise north into the Adirondacks early this afternoon with
lowering ceilings toward 2500-3000ft and a brief snow shower
between 17-20Z. Some flurries could be possible at BTV as Froude
numbers will be below 0.5 between 17-20Z, though vsbys should
remain above 6SM. Used PROB30 groups as shower activity
confidence is relatively low. As the band dissipates by 20Z,
ceilings at most terminals will rise to scattered to broken
10000ft agl. Continued brief reductions in and out of MVFR at
MSS will persist towards 00Z. Winds will increase from the south
beyond 00Z with gusts reaching 20-25 kts with channeled flow,
particularly at MSS/PBG/BTV. Prevailing MVFR ceilings will
arrive at MSS by the end of this TAF period.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Chance FZRA, Slight chance RA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite RA, Likely SN, Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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