158
FXUS61 KBTV 171755
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1255 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 604 AM EST Saturday...Precipitation chances were updated
between rounds of snow. While showers are isolated to scattered
at the moment, they will increase in coverage over the next few
hours.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 153 AM EST Saturday...

1. A weak system will bring light snow to the region late
tonight into Saturday. Snow amounts in excess of four inches are
expected in southern Vermont. A Winter Weather Advisory in
effect for Rutland and Windsor counties.

2. Southwesterly winds increase Monday with gusts around 30 mph
possible in the St Lawrence Valley. This will support periods
of moderate snow and blowing snow for portions of northern New
York as lake enhanced snow becomes entrained in wind flow off of
Lake Ontario.

3. An unseasonably cold and unsettled pattern is expected for next
week with multiple chances for snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 153 AM EST Saturday...

.KEY MESSAGE 1: Weak low pressure continues to bring snow across
northern New York and Vermont this morning; this will persist
through the afternoon. CAMs continue to increase QPF associated
with this system as models trend for a longer/deeper duration of
moisture training over the region, especially southern Vermont.
This has resulted an increase in forecast snowfall across the
southern Adirondacks to near the Mohawk Valley through south-
central New Hampshire and prompted expansion of Winter Weather
Advisories through this region. Totals of 2-6 inches are
expected.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: Low pressure passing northwest of the St
Lawrence Valley will sharply tighten the pressure gradient
across northern New York Monday as SFC-850mb flow goes
unidirectional off of Lake Ontario. Models currently support
surface gusts 30-40 mph in the St Lawrence Valley and around 30
mph for the northern Champlain Valley. Deep mixing is present in
model soundings with a 5kft+ depth of saturation. Coupled with
modest CAPE and a passing trough, there could be a few squalls
in northern New York as bursts of lake enhanced snow showers
move through. These gusts could support periods of blowing snow
resulting in an extended period of poor visibility for portions
of northern New York while allowing for lighter snow showers to
penetrate into northern Vermont.

.KEY MESSAGE 3: Cool temperatures and unsettled weather will be the
main story for next week, with several chances for precipitation
possible. Guidance supports an impressive period of lake effect snow
early next week, primarily to our south, but some higher snow
accumulations will be possible across St. Lawrence County and
portions of the Adirondacks and the band waffles northward.
Unseasonably cold temperatures will be possible this week,
especially on Tuesday where daytime highs will only be in the single
digits and teens with overnight lows dropping into the single digits
above and below zero. Additional chances for showers will be
possible as the week progress, with some guidance suggesting the
potential for another weak system on Thursday, although it`s still a
bit far out for details.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...A developing wave of low pressure to our east
is helping organize an area of snow on its northwestern flank. This
snow will be steady primarily at terminals in Vermont from RUT to
MPV to EFK through much of the next six hours, tapering off
gradually most likely between 22Z and 00Z. At BTV, a shorter
duration of snow is possible, although confidence is
relatively low with PROB30 utilized. On the western fringe of
the precipitation shield, from SLK to PBG, probabilities of snow
are even lower and expect only brief periods of IFR conditions
associated with this precipitation could occur. Very light snow
has been falling at MSS with localized northeasterly flow, and
do not see much change over the next several hours at this
terminal. Areawide, character of snow will tend to be fluffy,
especially when it falls more heavily, rather than wet.

Past 00Z, while precipitation chances diminish, another area of
low pressure will pass to our northwest and help produce some
gusty winds over northern New York, most notably at MSS where
gusts over 30 knots are possible as soon as 03Z but especially
around 05Z when probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 30 knots
peaks. Gusty southwest winds are also probable at SLK, while
other sites are less likely to mix these winds to the surface.
Ceilings throughout the period will be variable but be a mix of
VFR and MVFR.


Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN, Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ011-
     019>021.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV