097
FXUS61 KBTV 111128
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
628 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A messy wintry mix early will trend towards scattered snow
showers, and then westerly upslope snow, as temperatures cool
alongside blustery winds. Some lake effect snow will follow on
Monday, with another widespread light precipitation event
Tuesday night into Wednesday. A strong cold front will bring
much drier air on Thursday, and sub-freezing temperatures will
prevail for the remainder of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 157 AM EST Saturday...
*Slick roads, especially on bridges and overpasses, as well as
at higher elevations, will continue today with temperatures
near freezing.
*Scattered snow showers late today will become more terrain-
driven tonight with minor snowfall expected along the western
slopes of the Adirondacks and near the spine of the Green
Mountains tonight.
Aside from portions of the Northeast Kingdom, near surface
temperatures overnight were warm enough to produce more rain
than expected with mainly wet roads being observed. However, a
cold rain and wintry mix should end as light snow in many
places this morning as colder air aloft pushes in from the west.
Have continued the Winter Weather Advisory through this morning
for the higher terrain in southern Vermont and Adirondacks
where more widespread icy conditions are expected, but with the
cooling thermal profiles precipitation should trend towards snow
there too.
As surface low pressure to our west ambles northeastward, a
well-defined dry slot will move across our region, so little or
no precipitation will fall until late in the day as the system`s
cold front brings deeper moisture and scattered showers. Ahead
of the front, the snow squall parameter will peak in the 3-5PM
timeframe, when precipitation is favored only in northern New
York based on timing of the front. The large scale features to
generate cold season convection look good, but the best
instability looks to be south of our region. That being said,
while frontogenesis doesn`t look sharp, there is enough thermal
advection and moisture around to bring us numerous snow showers
during the mid-late afternoon in northern New York and late
afternoon and evening in Vermont. In northern New York,
especially over the Adirondacks, these showers will be heavy at
times. Farther east, the low level moisture does not look
particularly impressive to support higher snowfall rates with
these showers. Lack of organization will limit risk of snow
squalls, as well, but have noted some potential of snow squalls
over southern Vermont extending into portions of Rutland and
Windsor counties early this evening.
As pressure rises begin behind the front tonight and a low level
inversion develops, winds will pick up greatly, gusting 30 to
40 MPH in much of the northern Adirondacks and central and
eastern Vermont. The height of the inversion looks fairly low,
so we`ll have some potential for gap winds in Vermont for
locally higher wind gusts. Snow showers with snow ratios
increasing towards 20:1 will be most prolific in the northern
Greens, leading to a swath of around 2 to 5 inches of new snow.
There should be a short period of heavier upslope snow near the
spine with average Froude numbers near 1.5 in the early morning
hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 157 AM EST Saturday...
* Lake effect type of snow expected downwind of Lake Ontario
Monday into Monday night.
Winds will abate somewhat on Monday, but shift southwesterly.
Favorable flow at 925 millibars with a mid-level wave moving
across the region will support some snow showers primarily in
the snow belt over southeastern St. Lawrence County into the
western Adirondacks, with some snow making it northeastward into
northern/northeastern Vermont at times later Monday. With flow
remaining fairly steady out of the west-southwest through much
of the following 24 to 36 hours, chances for snow showers will
continue into Monday night. Upper level ridging and associated
drying, along with loss of instability over Lake Ontario given
rising air temperatures, will help diminish shower activity on
Tuesday. Temperatures across the region will warm back above
freezing on Tuesday following a seasonably cold day on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1247 AM EST Sunday...A clipper system will slide up to our west
and north Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing another round of
showers to the region. Profiles indicate precipitation will begin as
snow, but anticipate it to mix with and/or change to rain in the
wider valleys during the day Wednesday as highs warm into the mid
30s to low 40s. Expect breezy south to southwest winds with this
system as well, particularly in the Champlain and St Lawrence
Valleys due to funneling. Gusts to 30 mph will be possible in these
areas.
Heading into the latter half of the week, we will remain on the
eastern periphery of a upper level trough extending from the Great
Lakes down into the SE CONUS. As noted by the previous forecaster,
the best forcing/moisture and low pressure development look to
remain to our south and east, while surface high pressure builds to
our north and west. This latter feature is a very dry airmass, and
note that PWATs will only be 0.25 inch by Thursday morning as per
the latest GFS, and with north flow, we`ll only dry with time. Given
the complex set up, there`s still time for things to change, and
have stayed with the NBM`s 20-50% PoPs for now. However, wouldn`t be
surprised if we see a dry period through late week and into the
weekend with low pressure systems and their associated precipitation
affecting southern New England down into the Mid Atlantic. Also of
note will be a dramatic return to below normal temperatures; after
Wednesday`s highs above freezing, we`ll likely struggle to get out
of the teens and low 20s Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12z Monday...Widespread precipitation has mostly ended
across the region, with a few isolated showers across northern
VT. Ceilings generally a mix of VFR/MVFR at 1800-3500 ft, but
anticipate things to improve to VFR at all terminals after 14z
as clouds scatter out. The exceptions to this may be
KMSS/KSLK/KEFK, which could hang onto BKN MVFR ceilings.
Regardless, additional snow showers will develop after 18z and
push eastward through the afternoon/evening hours with a frontal
boundary. Showers will be most concentrated at KMSS/KSLK/KEFK,
where visibility will be reduced to 2SM or even less as some
showers could be briefly heavy. Elsewhere, coverage was not
enough to warrant mention in the TAFs at this time, though just
about all terminals could see brief IFR conditions in snow
showers. Otherwise, expect ceilings to lower back to MVFR at all
terminals as the front and any showers move through, then
gradual improvement late in the TAF period. Winds will become
gusty out of the W/SW, and in fact are already so at KMSS/KSLK,
where gusts of 25+ kt have already been observed. The other
terminals will trend gusty from west to east through 20z, with
gusts to remain 25+ kt through the remainder of the TAF period.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: MVFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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