531
FXUS61 KBTV 150632
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
132 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Upslope snow showers will continue into the morning, before more
widespread light snowfall occurs later in the day and into tonight.
A warming trend will begin Tuesday, and temperatures will be above
freezing for most areas on Wednesday and Thursday. A stronger system
looks to bring rain Thursday night, though some back end snowfall is
still possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 132 AM EST Monday...Upslope snow showers have begun to develop
in the northern Greens, and they will continue on and off into the
morning. Atmospheric temperature profiles should be a little colder
during the event than had been forecast last night. This puts them
right below the DGZ and it may be just too cold for dendrites,
especially early in the night. This is supported by the fine flakes
at BTV that have been falling so far this evening. Heading into the
morning, temperatures look to warm slightly and enough lake
influence could warm them just enough to favor some dendrites. The
next issue is that moisture has been a bit lacking, with the snow
gradually diminishing in the last couple hours. Moisture should
overall increase in the later part of the night so the snow should
fill back in. Overall, an inch or two of snow still looks likely
along the western slopes, but if the moisture stays lackluster, that
will bring down snow totals. The lack of dendritic growth could also
hinder the snow amounts if it continues. The snow exits the region
in the morning and the rest of today should be mostly dry. Moisture
tracks back into the region off Lake Ontario later in the day,
entering St. Lawrence County in the afternoon. The moisture will
cause some lake effect snow to develop. The lake effect will be
helped by increasing southwest flow. However, the flow will quickly
return to being more westerly and northwesterly later in the night,
indicating a quick exit back to the south. Overall, the expected
snowfall totals will be quite low, with only up to around an inch or
two for the most favored areas. Elsewhere, a few light snow showers
may be possible, but totals would be even lower. Strong warm air
advection will begin quickly on Tuesday, though temperatures will
stay below freezing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 132 AM EST Monday...Warm air advection continues Tuesday night
into Wednesday, and temperatures will rise above freezing for most
areas. This would be the first time all month Saranac Lake rises
above freezing. Temperatures may be non-diurnal or at least mostly
steady Tuesday night as winds and the advection will keep the
boundary layer mixed. A low level jet and somewhat decent mixing on
Wednesday will cause strong winds, particularly in the Champlain
Valley. There, gusts could be in the 25 to 35 mph range. A few snow
showers look to enter northern New York in the afternoon associated
with a cold front, but it will unfortunately not be enough keep
temperatures below freezing for the rest of the week.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 132 AM EST Monday...Thursday will be warm with strong gusty
southerly winds ahead of next approaching low pressure system. Warm
air will reach our western zones by mid morning Thursday and spread
across our entire area, raising temperatures above freezing areawide
by about noon. Maximum temperatures Thursday afternoon will range
from the upper 30s to lower 40s. An 850 mb jet will be as high as 60
kts over the area by Thursday afternoon. Winds will be strongest in
the Champlain valley where channeling will enhance the wind speeds
out of the south. Will need to monitor for potential need of a wind
advisory. On Thursday night widespread rain will move into the area,
then eventually a strong surface cold front crosses the area Friday
during the day and rain will change over to snow before ending
Friday night. Temperatures will remain above freezing Thursday night
into Friday, but don`t think we`ll have enough thawing degree hours
to cause a lot of problems with ice jam breakups. But, rainfall on
top of snowmelt will be watched carefully as we get closer to
Thursday and Friday. Strong winds will also follow this cold frontal
passage with winds turning to northwesterly. There is still plenty
of uncertainty regarding the exact timing and placement of the
system, so continue to monitor trends as we get closer. Beyond this
late week system, additional chances for snow showers will be
possible for the weekend, especially across the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...An area of upper vorticity is moving towards
and then across our region. Some light snow is expected with this
feature, and this will also result in a trend to 1500-3500 ft agl
ceilings. Highest confidence of snow will be at KSLK, moderate
confidence for KBTV and KEFK, and lower confidence for KMPV and
KMSS. Snowfall character will be very light, and visibility
restrictions may remain between 3-6SM for most, but could reach 2SM
at KSLK. Northwest winds range about 7 to 15 knots right now, and
should trend towards 5 to 9 knots. After 12z, any light snow will
begin to diminish, but ceilings will take longer to improve. After
18z, winds will become southwest to west-northwest. Mid to high
clouds will return as another weather system approaches the St.
Lawrence River about 21-23z with light snow at KMSS reaching the
area.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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