702
FXUS61 KBTV 041311
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
911 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 911 AM EDT Saturday...

Have backed thunderstorm coverage a bit given trends in the
data; still Rutland and Windsor counties will be perhaps an
isolated storm. Also removed smoke from forecast through much
of the day and kept in haze. Observed air quality upstream
along with thickness of smoke plumes on satellite imagery does
not look as concerning as modeled. Haze spreading in from the
north and west is still anticipated through the day, and those
sensitive to smoke may be impacted.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 241 AM EDT Saturday...

1. A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible this morning
and early afternoon. Drier conditions expected for Sunday.

2. Some hazy conditions and poorer air quality is expected
today due to wildfire smoke dropping out of Canada.

3. Warm weather will linger into next week, along with chances
of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 241 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible
this morning with some forcing along a frontal boundary dropping
out of Canada and as a wave moves west to east from the Lake
Ontario region. Forcing will not be overly strong with this
front, but some showers are already evident in northern New
York. These showers will move into north-central Vermont for the
morning before quickly dropping south.

Highest chances of showers and thunderstorms will be in
southern Vermont where a wave will move through late this
morning and early afternoon. This area is evident over western
Lake Ontario and will track eastward this morning. While strong
thunderstorms are not anticipated, lightning will be a threat to
those participating in outdoor Independence Day activities from
10 AM to 4 PM.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Wildfire smoke is evident over southern Canada
and is dropping southward with the front. As winds turn
northerly this area will advect over the region this morning and
persist until around midnight. Air quality is expected to drop
into the orange category becoming hazardous for groups that are
more sensitive to air quality degradation. Some lingering haze
is possible past midnight as high pressure moves in, but
conditions are anticipated to improve overall moving into
Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: By the middle of next week, the warm weather
will continue to linger across the region. Current forecast
supports high temperatures in 80s to low 90s for next week,
although heat indices are not quite as high in comparison to the
recent heat wave. Overnight lows remain on the warmer side,
generally in the 60s, providing little relief from the daytime
warmth. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all
terminals, and are expected to persist through most of the forecast
period, with the exception of some MVFR ceilings at KSLK which
is expected to improve over the next few hours. Winds will trend
west/northwesterly this morning into the afternoon, with gusts
possible, before trending light and variable overnight. A few
showers may be possible through the afternoon, especially
further south at terminals like KRUT, but overall coverage and
intensity of any showers should be relatively minor.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Below are the current low temperature records in jeopardy at
our area climate sites.

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 4:
KPBG: 71/1973
KSLK: 67/1952

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for VTZ001>010-
     016>018.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...NWS BTV