666
FXUS61 KBTV 231829
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
129 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper system will continue to bring steady light snow
today, continuing into tonight and early Wednesday. Several
inches of snow accumulation will likely bring at least some
minor winter travel impacts. Quieter conditions are expected for
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, though a few mountain snow
showers will continue to be possible. Thereafter, the next
chance for widespread precipitation is not expected to arrive
until Sunday, when mixed wintry precipitation is possible across
the North Country.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EST Tuesday...Light stratiform snow is lifting
into our area from the west. Thus far snowfall has been light
and is expected to continue to spread eastward this evening.
Snowfall rates should remain light with around 1 inch of
snowfall or less per 3 hour block of time. Greatest
accumulations should occur between 20-02z. Travel may be
impeded this evening due to the ongoing snow accumulating.
Surface low will track right across our CWA, then east of the
area by about 09z early Wednesday morning. After the low slides
east of us, snowfall will become more upslope driven and linger
into the day Wed. The higher summits will see some additional
accumulations. Temperatures overnight will stay fairly mild with
ongoing snowfall and cloudy skies, generally bottoming out in
the 20s areawide. Temperatures on Wed will reach the mid 20s to
mid 30s. Colder air moves into the area Wednesday night and as
snow showers come to an end, minimum temperatures will dip into
the teens areawide.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EST Tuesday...For Thursday a weak surface feature
as well as some upper level shortwave energy move just north of
the international border. We will have some scattered light snow
showers, with better concentration in the higher peaks of the
Adirondacks and northern Greens. May see a coating to 2" of
snowfall, highest across far n-central VT, associated with the
snow showers Christmas day. High temperatures on Christmas Day
again in the 25 to 30F range for most areas, with winds becoming
NW 10-15 mph during the afternoon hrs following the passage of
the front. Thursday night will be cold with minimum temperatures
dropping into the single digits above and below zero as high
pressure ridges into our area from Canada, and conditions become
ideal for radiational cooling with drier air moving into our
area.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Tuesday...Active weather will persist through
the remainder of the holiday weekend and into early next week.
Brief ridging will keep the first part of Friday dry, but then
another clipper will spread snow across mainly western/southern
sections Friday night into Saturday. We still look to be on the
northern fringe of this system, so anticipate precipitation to
fall as all snow. It`ll make for a cold day as well, with
Friday`s highs only in the 5-15F range for much of our forecast
area. While we won`t have much wind, wind chills will be below
zero areawide to start out the day and will likely only top out
in the positive single digits by the afternoon. The clipper
quickly exits to our southeast Saturday, so it should be another
mostly dry day, and warmer as well, though highs will still be
below late December normals. Our next shot of precipitation will
be Sunday with an upper trough swinging into the Great Lakes.
However, there`s still uncertainty as models remain divided in
how far north the warmer air aloft is able to make it. The
23/12z GFS keeps the bulk of it shunted south, with 850mb temps
around +2C just briefly nosing into northern NY and
central/southern VT. The CMC and ECMWF meanwhile are more
robust, warming 850mb temps to +4C or more, especially in
northern NY (though it should be noted the 23/12z CMC is delayed
12-18 hrs). The GFS solution would mean mostly snow for
northern areas, with some sleet and perhaps brief freezing rain
in northern NY and central/southern VT, while the warmer
solutions would bring a wintry mix much further north, perhaps
all the way to the international border and/or Northeast
Kingdom. Have continued to stay with just snow/rain for now, but
we`ll continue to monitor trends closely. Anyone with travel
plans on Sunday should do the same.
Regardless, after what could be a brief warmer spell (highs in
the 30s) on Sunday, much colder conditions return as the upper
trough swings across SE Canada and/or the Northeastern CONUS.
Mountain snow showers look to persist Monday into Tuesday, with
highs in the teens and 20s. It will likely be breezy as well
with blustery N/NW winds.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z Wednesday...Expect conditions to quickly
deteriorate early in the TAF period as snow spreads over the
region. Already seeing visibility below 1SM in portions of the
St Lawrence Valley, and expect 1/2SM-1SM visibility to become
fairly widespread by 00z Wed. Ceilings currently 1500-3500 ft
will lower to around 1500 ft for a few hours once the snow
starts, but then expect IFR ceilings through at least part of
this evening and overnight. Steadiest snow starts to exit to the
east after 06z, trending toward upslope mountain snow showers
thereafter. Expect KMSS/KBTV/KPBG/KRUT will see snow end around
12z, but it will persist at all other terminal locations until
the end of the TAF period. Ceilings lift to MVFR by 12z, but
remaining so even once snow ends. South winds 10 kt or less
through roughly 06z, then winds shift to the NW and become gusty
to around 20 kt at all terminals from 12z on. LLWS likely
overnight, particularly at KMSS/KSLK as a LLJ moves overhead.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Christmas Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Sunday: VFR. Definite SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for VTZ003-
004-006>008-010-016>020.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for
NYZ029>031-034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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