090
FXUS61 KBTV 131845
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
245 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 242 PM EDT Saturday...
Increased the winds tomorrow afternoon with better mixing potential.
Have also kept gusty winds and heavy rain wording within any
thunderstorm chances tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 242 PM EDT Saturday...
1. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms and localized
flooding possible tomorrow.
2. A return to more seasonable temperatures and a brief break
in unsettled conditions is expected to start off next week.
3. Cooler with some showers next week and a larger storm system
Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 242 PM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Behind our quiet weather today, shower chances will
increase near the International Border tonight into tomorrow morning
ahead of a strong cold front. There is a bit of lower confidence in
severe weather tomorrow, though the potential for some stronger
storms remains unchanged. A weaker shortwave will traverse just
north of the International Border beginning tonight with a slight
chance to chance PoPs near Massena as some showers may graze the
northern St. Lawrence Valley. Into the daytime, mixing will increase
into the late morning with a drying of the low levels across central
and southern Vermont. Into northern New York, proximity to the front
should keep mixing tempered with precipitation ongoing. The exact
depth of the mixing layer remains somewhat uncertain, with the HRRR
mixing nearly to 600mb, whereas the NAM3 mixes lower, closer to
850mb. A blend of the two seems reasonable, with a combination of
dry low level air, but increased mid level moisture advected north
from the Gulf. This results in a shallow inverted V type sounding
for the southern Champlain Valley and southern Vermont, with a
saturated mid level. While inverted V soundings usually indicate the
potential for isolated microbursts, the modeled DCAPE is around 700-
800J/kg, given the shallowness of the LCL. Furthermore, this DCAPE
will likely not be fully realized as overall instability will be
muddied with convective debris and moist mid layers, resulting in a
mid level inversion and little MLCAPE. This inversion will likely
help cap the vertical extend of many showers and embedded
thunderstorms. Regardless, there may be some synoptically driven
gusty winds tomorrow given stronger mixing around 30 to 35 MPH, with
top of the mixed layer winds around 50 kts. Additionally with the
inverted V profiles, stronger downdrafts may be possible with
embedded gusty winds under any thunderstorms. Have added gusty winds
to the forecast.
The more concerning aspect to the forecast will be the isolated
hydro concerns. Guidance continues to show good pwats across the
region to 1.5 inches with several CAMS denoting streaks of 3-6 hr
QPF around 1-2 inches. Tall skinny CAPE profiles with a deep warm
cloud depth to around 10,000 ft are favorable for heavy
precipitation. Have continued with enhanced heavy rain wording
tomorrow for localized flooding concerns. The NAM3 and HRRR
highlight the potential for three rounds of showers with embedded
thunderstorms, thus should an area see some training cells, some
localized flooding is possible. The Weather Prediction Center has
placed the entire region in a Marginal Risk for Flooding potential
tomorrow. Current guidance points to the central Greens, and
potentially southern Vermont as areas we will continue to monitor
for the better chances for hydro concerns. Total rainfall
tomorrow ranges between near an inch in the St. Lawrence Valley
to a quarter inch in the Connecticut River Valley in Windsor
County. Rain will be persistent across the St. Lawrence Valley
and more showery elsewhere tomorrow. Rainfall amounts may be
locally higher under any thunderstorm activity.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Behind the cold front on Sunday, a much cooler air mass
will usher in a return to seasonable temperatures for Monday and
Tuesday. Highs will be near 70 to the mid 70s with overnight lows in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. These cooler temperatures however, will be
associated an upper trough and weak instability which could bring
some daily chances for showers, especially across the higher
terrain. These showers will be light in nature as they lack any
meaningful moisture or instability profiles. Best chances will be
Monday morning, particularly across the Adirondacks.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Large scale troughing will be established for much of
next week, bringing seasonably cool temperatures and several rounds
of shower chances as shortwaves pivot around the longwave. Diurnal
heating will help increase the shower chances in the afternoon a bit
due to the cool air aloft. However, most of the time it will be dry.
It is increasingly likely that a more organized area of low pressure
will move through Thursday into Thursday night, bringing widespread
rainfall. With the current favored track to the north, it will
likely bring gusty synoptic winds. A low level jet of 40 to 60 KTs
looks increasingly possible, as long as the low track continues to
be to the north. GEFS, EPS and CMCE combined ensemble probabilities
of more than an inch and two inches of total rain are 70-90 percent
and 20-50 percent respectively. The rounds of precipitation
currently look to be light enough and moving quick enough to prevent
much of a flooding threat.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will mostly prevail for the next
24 hours. A few showers will move along far northern areas tomorrow
morning and will likely be in and out of Massena, and some brief
visibility reductions to MVFR are possible there. Elsewhere, only
VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be westerly to southwesterly
today and tonight. Gusts should be in the 10 to 20 KT range for most
terminals, before dropping upper 10 KT tonight. Winds will be much
stronger tomorrow, with southerly to southwesterly gusts in the 15
to 25 KT range expected during the day. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will move through the region tomorrow afternoon.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Danzig
AVIATION...Myskowski
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