354
FXUS61 KBTV 052356
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY
756 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet conditions will develop tonight with winds calming. More
wet weather is expected beginning Friday afternoon and
continuing into Saturday. Generally seasonable weather is
expected next week, and an unsettled pattern should lead to more
chances for rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 736 PM EDT Thursday...No big changes for the near term
portion of the forecast. The thunderstorm threat has decreased
throughout the area. A few current lingering showers will
continue to track across Rutland and Windsor Counties over the
next few hours, but for the most part, shower activity has
significantly decreased area wide. Where rain fell, some patchy
fog is possible, particularly in the Adirondacks and near the
Connecticut River Valley. Overnight lows tonight will dip into
the low to mid 60s.
Previous Discussion...Tonight will be quiet transitioning to additional
showers and thunderstorms by Friday early afternoon. The latest
consensus has trended wetter and cooler, especially in southern
portions of the region, where greatest moisture and instability
will be present. North and west of the frontal zone there
should be more sunshine into the afternoon hours, so best bet
for a fully dry day with seasonably warm conditions will be
across the St. Lawrence Valley eastward into northwestern
Vermont. Most locations will see highs in the 70s and overnight
lows near 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...Did not make many changes for the
short term portion of the forecast. Additional rainfall,
possibly heavy, is expected on Saturday. At this time biggest
totals are expected across our southern Vermont zones. In these
areas around an inch and a half of rainfall is possible.
Temperatures will be cooler and closer to normal on Saturday,
max temps in the 70s. WPC has much of our region in the
excessive rainfall outlook on both Friday and Saturday. Some
thunder is possible but not really expecting severe storms on
Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...The second half of the weekend is
looking more favorable as we`ll see some brief ridging settle
over the region. A few showers can`t be ruled out, but expect if
any develop they`ll be pretty isolated. Otherwise, expect
partly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Thereafter, we`ll see a
return to a more active weather pattern as the mid/upper level
trough deepens across the Central Plains/Great Lakes regions.
The result will be an unsettled weather pattern for our region
as a series of shortwaves and frontal boundaries pinwheel push
through. As per usual, exact timing of these features is
difficult at this time, so stayed close to NBM through this
period, which gives showers chances every day through mid week.
Temperatures will remain seasonable with daytime highs in the
70s to around 80F and overnight lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions will continue at all
terminals through majority of the TAF period. Winds over the
area will continue to trend toward variable and calm beyond
sunset and should remain predominately light and variable
through the period. BTV/PBG may hold on to a prevailing wind for
a few more hours from channeled flow, but should also reach
variable winds overnight. A few scattered showers are possible
between 09-12Z at SLK/BTV/RUT/MPV along a slow moving cold
front. Expanded shower and possible thunderstorm chances
increase at all sites outside of MSS/EFK tomorrow beyond 18Z.
While winds will generally be light, they may become briefly
gusty under any thunderstorms that develop tomorrow afternoon.
Outlook...
Friday night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Hastings/Neiles
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Danzig
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