Current conditions from King Hill
Updated every 5 minutes
  Thursday May 26, 2022

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu May 26 07:45:01 UTC 2022

No watches are valid as of Thu May 26 07:45:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 26 07:45:01 UTC 2022.

SPC May 26, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z


Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday
over Ohio/eastern Kentucky, northeastern Georgia into the far
western Carolinas, and parts of northeastern Oregon, southeastern
Washington, and Idaho. Severe wind gusts and large hail should be
the primary hazards.

An upper-level low over the central CONUS is evident in
early-morning water vapor imagery. This feature will continue to
drift east into the southern/central Appalachians over the next 24
hours. As this occurs, a diffuse surface low and attendant cold
front will shift into the OH River Valley and southeastern U.S.
respectively. 00 UTC RAOBs from across these regions sampled modest
mid-level lapse rates (generally between 6-7 C/km), but a broad
swath of boundary-layer mean mixing ratios between 10-13 g/kg across
the region coupled with diurnal warming will support adequate
buoyancy for convection by early afternoon. To the west, an
upper-level wave off the West Coast will move onshore later today.
Height falls across the Pacific Northwest and the approach of a
mid-level cold front will support thunderstorm development late in
the afternoon/evening.

A cold front currently moving across the lower MS River Valley is
expected to continue eastward into the Southeast today.
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period
along the Gulf Coast, but will increase in coverage along the front
through the late morning and early afternoon across AL into GA.
Although moist profiles and modest mid-level lapse rates will limit
buoyancy to a degree, MLCAPE should be adequate for increasingly
robust updrafts by early afternoon. Increasing deep-layer shear off
the boundary, as well as strengthening 850-700 mb flow, will support
the potential for a few cells and/or organized segments along the
front. A Slight risk is introduced for portions of central GA into
the western Carolinas where the potential for such organized
segments (and an attendant damaging wind threat) appears greatest.  

A diffuse wedge front, noted in early-morning observations across
the Carolinas, is expected to lift north as a warm frontal zone
through the day in response to increasing southerly flow.
Thunderstorms may develop along this boundary during the afternoon.
A few stronger, more organized cells are possible, but storm motions
along the boundary and the possibility of destructive storm
interference may limit this potential.

...Upper OH River Valley...
Broad ascent ahead of the upper low overlaid with a mid-level
convergence zone will support isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms from IL into the upper OH River Valley. Modest low to
mid-level lapse rates will limit buoyancy despite 55-65 F dewpoints
already in place. However, forecast soundings show adequate CAPE
profiles to utilize the stronger flow aloft with 35-45 knots of
effective bulk shear likely across this region. The isolated to
scattered nature of convection should allow for at least a few
organized cells and/or linear segments. Narrow CAPE profiles may
limit the overall hail potential to a degree, but 30-40 knot flow
within the lowest 1 km will support a damaging-wind potential.
Recent guidance continues to suggest that the greatest convective
coverage (and hence increased wind threat) will reside across
northeast KY into OH and far western WV near the exit region of the
upper jet.

...Pacific Northwest...
00 UTC soundings from across the Pacific Northwest have shown a
general increase in mid-level moisture over the past 12 hours as
deep-layer onshore flow increases. Additionally, mid-level lapse
rates have steepened as broad, but weak, ascent overspreads the
region ahead of the upper-level wave. This trend will continue
through the day and, when coupled with daytime heating, should
support around 500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. While buoyancy may
be somewhat limited, straight hodographs off an initiating cold
front will promote discrete cells, including the potential for a few
supercells, from northeast OR into northern ID. Large hail appears
probable with these cells, and steep low-level lapse rates with a
1-2 km dry sub-cloud layer will support the potential for severe
wind gusts.

..Moore/Darrow.. 05/26/2022

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SPC May 26, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z


Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from
the Carolinas northward into eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. 
Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are the primary threats
with the stronger storms in the Chesapeake Bay region.

A mid-level low initially over southern IN will move
east-northeastward into central PA and weaken into an open trough by
early Saturday.  A composite boundary will push east across the
Appalachians and much of the eastern U.S. during the period. 
Farther west, a belt of low-amplitude, southwesterly mid-level flow
will spread across the northwestern CONUS as a mid-level ridge
weakens over the central U.S.

...Southeast northward through the Mid-Atlantic states and
Model guidance is consistent in depicting scattered
showers/thunderstorms to be ongoing Friday morning from parts of the
central Appalachians southward into the Carolinas and northeast Gulf
of Mexico.  Ahead of the convection, moisture advection via moderate
southerly low-level flow will contribute to dewpoints ranging from
the lower-mid 60s in the Northeast, to the upper 60s to lower 70s
from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity and south.  Diurnal heating will
yield 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the Mid-Atlantic states southward
into coastal SC.  An extensive broken squall line (linear clusters
and transient supercells) will likely develop during the afternoon
into the early evening.  Ample deep-layer shear for storm
organization will exist from the Canadian border southward into the
Mid-Atlantic states with 30-50 kt effective shear forecast.  Weaker
flow is progged farther south (20-30 kt effective shear) but
organized multicells will be possible.  Isolated large hail could
accompany the stronger cells.  The concentration of 50-65 mph gusts
and wind damage will probably be highest in the
Mid-Atlantic/Chesapeake Bay vicinity.  There, forecast hodographs
and moist low levels will conditionally yield a several-hour period
favorable for storm-scale rotation (supercellular or QLCS) and an
associated risk for a few tornadoes.  This activity will likely
weaken during the evening.

...MT/WY into western Dakotas...
A series of weak mid-level disturbances is forecast to move quickly
east across the northern Rockies into the northern Great Plains.  As
a result, an area of low pressure will likely develop over the
western Dakotas by late afternoon.  A marginally moist boundary
layer beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will yield 500-1000 J/kg
SBCAPE by late afternoon.  Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will probably develop during the late afternoon/early
evening.  Isolated severe gusts and hail may accompany the stronger

..Smith.. 05/26/2022

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SPC May 26, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z


Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for
the north-central Great Plains and into the Upper Midwest.  Large
hail and severe gusts are the primary severe hazards.

A mid-level trough initially over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states
will exit the East Coast by early evening before moving into the
Canadian maritime provinces.  A flattened upstream mid-level ridge
is forecast over the central U.S. while a large-scale trough moves
into the Interior West.  

...North-central Great Plains/Upper Midwest...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will feature a series of impulses
moving northeast from the north-central Rockies into the Upper
Midwest.  A lee trough over the High Plains will invoke southerly
low-level flow and thereby aid in transporting a gradual increase in
moisture northward from the southern Great Plains into the Dakotas
during the day.  A strong EML and associated capping inversion will
likely limit thunderstorm activity until the late afternoon when
CINH is substantially reduced.  It seems plausible isolated
thunderstorms will develop at least initially near the Black Hills
and perhaps along the lee trough/dryline and spread eastward into SD
during the early evening.  Models hint at a weak mid-level
disturbance moving east-northeastward into western SD/NE by early
evening.  An intensifying LLJ over the central Great Plains will
develop after dark.  Strengthening WAA/isentropic lift may lead to a
cluster or MCS developing near the terminus of the LLJ during the
evening into the overnight over parts of the mid MO Valley.  Large
hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats with this

...New England...
Diurnal heating amidst lower 60s surface dewpoints will likely yield
250-1000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon.  A frontal segment will
move east across the region during the afternoon and provide a focus
for isolated-scattered thunderstorm development.  A couple of
locally intense multicells may yield wind damage or marginally
severe hail for a few hours before diminishing.

..Smith.. 05/26/2022

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

Elevated fire weather concerns remain likely this afternoon across
northwestern to southern Nevada. Early-morning water vapor imagery
reveals an upper-level wave approaching the Pacific Northwest.
Surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin will induce
south to southwesterly winds off the Sierra Nevada and lower CO
River Valley. Sustained winds between 15 to 20 mph are expected by
early afternoon based on ensemble guidance. However, deep
boundary-layer mixing will support frequent wind gusts between 25-35
mph, especially across central to southern NV where nearly all
solutions show the strongest low-level mass response. Downslope
effects, combined with antecedent dry conditions and diurnal
warming, will support RH reductions into the 10-15% range across
much of the region. Consequently, elevated (to briefly critical)
fire weather conditions appear likely, including across far western
NV where several lightning strikes were noted Wednesday afternoon. 

...Dry Thunderstorms... 
The approaching upper low will also support the potential for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across the
Pacific Northwest and parts of the northern Great Basin. Observed 00
UTC soundings show an increase in column precipitable water over the
region, but values remain near 0.3 to 0.5 inches. Continued
moistening is expected, but PWATs will likely remain near 0.5 to
0.75 across NV and will support a dry-lightning threat. While the
probability for thunderstorms is highest across portions of OR, WA,
and ID, a few dry thunderstorms are possible across central to
northern NV. An isolated dry-thunderstorm risk area is introduced
where confidence in thunderstorms overlapping with critically dry
fuels is highest.

..Moore.. 05/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

Increasing west to southwest winds across parts of the southern
Great Basin, Southwest, and Four Corners will lead to a broad swath
of fire weather concerns Friday afternoon. The upper-level wave
currently approaching the Pacific Northwest is forecast to translate
into the northern Rockies by late Friday. Falling heights aloft will
support modest surface pressure falls over the inter-mountain West,
resulting in a broad low-level mass response from the southern Great
Basin into the Four Corners and Southwest. Ensemble guidance and
deterministic solutions generally suggest that 15-20 mph winds will
be common across this region. Drier/windier solutions indicate that
areas of 20-25 mph winds are possible, but considerable spread in
deterministic solutions introduces uncertainty regarding the exact
placement and coverage of the strongest winds. Strong mid and
upper-level winds will largely be displaced to the north of the
region, which further limits confidence on where the windiest
corridors will be established within the risk area. 

Nonetheless, dry conditions will prevail with 10-15% RH values
expected by late afternoon. Widespread elevated conditions are
likely, and a few corridors of critical conditions are possible.
Similar wind/RH conditions are possible across much of the southern
High Plains as well, but widespread rainfall over the past few days
has mitigated fuel status for the time being. Fuel trends will be
monitored for a possible expansion, but Friday's warm/dry conditions
will likely begin the drying process for most locations as
temperatures rebound into the 90s.

..Moore.. 05/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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