37.3F
Current conditions from King Hill
Updated every 5 minutes
 
  Thursday December 8, 2022

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 8 08:33:02 UTC 2022

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec  8 08:33:02 UTC 2022.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 8 08:33:02 UTC 2022.

SPC Dec 8, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Wed Dec 07 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm threat appears negligible Thursday.

...Discussion...

Upper ridge is forecast to remain anchored over the Gulf of Mexico
into this weekend. This dominant feature will force transient short
waves to eject across the southern Rockies, through the central
Plains into the OH Valley. Minimal height changes will be noted at
low latitudes, and a slowly oscillating frontal zone will remain the
primary focus for potential convection through the period.

While PW anomalies will remain above normal around the
western-northern periphery of the upper ridge, forecast buoyancy is
small, especially across the warm sector. In the absence of
meaningful short-wave forcing, low-level warm advection will likely
continue to be the primary driving mechanism for elevated convection
north of the front. Forecast instability does not appear adequate to
support severe thunderstorms Thursday.

Otherwise, a few flashes of lighting may accompany low-topped
convection in association with cooling profiles along the Pacific
Northwest Coast. Latest model guidance suggests a strong short-wave
trough will approach the coast around 09/00z, and this may
contribute to deeper updrafts with a greater propensity for
lightning.

..Darrow/Moore.. 12/08/2022

Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CST Thu Dec 08 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Friday.

...Discussion...
Modest amplification of the flow field aloft is expected Friday, as
long-wave troughing continues to evolve over the West. 
Specifically, an initial trough that is progged to move onshore
Thursday, should shift northeastward across the interior
West, while a second wave digs south-southeastward out of the Gulf
of Alaska toward the West Coast.

At the surface, a west-to-east baroclinic zone lying from the
southern Plains to the southern Appalachians will move slightly
southward with time, but should move little over the
southern Plains as a southern Plains frontal wave develops
overnight.

Showers and potentially a few lightning flashes will occur during
initial stages of the period over the eastern
Tennessee vicinity.

Overnight, elevated convection should evolve over the Oklahoma/north
Texas area and into Arkansas, as low-level warm advection increases
ahead of the evolving western trough.

Finally, convection -- with a few embedded lightning flashes -- may
affect the southern Oregon/northern California Coasts toward the end
of the period, as the digging eastern Pacific short-wave trough
approaches.

In all areas, severe weather is not expected.

..Goss.. 12/08/2022

Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Thu Dec 08 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Appreciable severe-weather risk is not apparent over the U.S. on
Saturday.

...Discussion...
While westerly low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail through
Saturday/Saturday night across the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.,
amplification of troughing over the far western states will
continue, as eastern Pacific short-wave energy continues digging
southeastward.

At the surface, a weak baroclinic zone will remain in place from the
southern Plains into the Southeast, which will again focus showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms.  Severe weather is largely not
expected across this region.  However, showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm may begin to develop late in the period across the
Texas Coastal Plain and vicinity, as warm advection increases in
response to the beginning of weak height falls aloft.  Though storms
would likely be slightly elevated above a weakly stable boundary
layer, a non-zero risk for a stronger storm could evolve late, if
the boundary layer stability is minimal.  Still, any risk -- given
modest CAPE and marginal shear that would likely exist -- is too low
for consideration of a risk area at this time.

..Goss.. 12/08/2022

Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Thu Dec 08 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across portions of
southeast CO and adjacent areas of far southwest KS and far
northeast NM. Latest surface observations shows weak cyclogenesis
over the greater Panhandles region with modest surface pressure
falls further north along the central High Plains ahead of an
approaching upper wave. This surface low will consolidate across the
central Plains over the next 24 hours, inducing 15-25 mph
west/northwest winds off the central Rockies. Downslope
warming/drying will yield RH values in the teens and low 20s over a
region with dry fine fuels after little rainfall over the past 14
days. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely across
southeast CO with localized critical conditions possible, especially
in the immediate lee of the terrain where gusts will likely approach
35 mph.

..Moore.. 12/08/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CST Thu Dec 08 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
The potential for widespread fire weather concerns is low for Friday
across the CONUS, but localized fire weather conditions may develop
for parts of eastern Colorado. The upper disturbance currently
approaching the Plains will quickly be followed by upper ridging
across the central U.S. on Friday. Height falls across the Southwest
will support increasing flow over the central Rockies with modest
lee troughing in response. 15 mph southerly winds may occasionally
gust up to 20-25 mph from northeast NM into eastern CO and far
western KS where fine fuels remain dry. No appreciable moisture
return will maintain dry conditions with afternoon RH values in the
15-25% range. Consequently, localized elevated fire weather
conditions are probable where dry conditions can overlap with
breezier winds. However, confidence in the spatial coverage and
duration of elevated conditions remains too limited due to
uncertainty in wind magnitudes, precluding highlights at this time.

..Moore.. 12/08/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Read more


 
 
Current Radar Loop:

Copyright © WestfordWeather.net 2007-2022. All rights reserved.