RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 693 TORNADO AZ NM 221710Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 693
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM MST Thu Oct 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and Eastern Arizona
Western New Mexico
* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1010 AM until
800 PM MST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...As an upper trough approaches the region, environment will
remain favorable for locally intense storms and supercells, capable
of all severe hazards including large hail and possible tornadoes,
especially for eastern Arizona and far western New Mexico.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 85 miles southwest of Silver City NM to
105 miles north northwest of Gallup NM. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 692...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23025.
...Guyer
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WW 0693 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 693
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2399
..WEINMAN..10/22/26
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...TWC...PSR...ABQ...EPZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 693
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
AZC001-003-005-007-009-011-017-222040-
AZ
. ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APACHE COCHISE COCONINO
GILA GRAHAM GREENLEE
NAVAJO
NMC003-006-017-023-031-045-222040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CATRON CIBOLA GRANT
HIDALGO MCKINLEY SAN JUAN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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MD 2399 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 693... FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2399
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Areas affected...Parts of east-central and northeast Arizona into
far west-central New Mexico
Concerning...Tornado Watch 693...
Valid 221855Z - 222030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 693 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe risk is expected to increase across parts of
east-central and northeast Arizona into far west-central New Mexico
during the next few hours. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a
couple of tornadoes will all be possible.
DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented broken band of thunderstorms
continues within a confluence zone extending across north-central
AZ, with transient organization/embedded rotation. Over the next few
hours, this activity, along with additional thunderstorms developing
along the higher terrain, will spread northeastward into
east-central/northeast AZ into far west-central NM. Here, cloud
breaks are supporting diurnal heating/boundary-layer destabilization
amid middle/upper 50s dewpoints. Around 70 kt of effective shear
(sampled by the FGZ 18Z sounding) and backed low-level winds (and
related enhancement to low-level shear/SRH) will be favorable for
supercells and organized clusters capable of producing large hail,
severe winds gusts, and a couple of tornadoes during the next few
hours.
..Weinman.. 10/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 33311050 33771081 34191098 34591103 35311094 35881045
35990993 35950941 35790905 35040877 33620871 33210891
33060957 33311050
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FOUR CORNERS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest,
with the most intense cells expected across parts of Arizona and
western New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
...Arizona/Four Corners and Great Basin...
Another active and relatively rare setup from a climatological
perspective continues regionally, and will tend to shift
east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. This will be
as the upper low in vicinity of the SoCal coast continues to become
more northeastward progressive today, reaching portions of the Great
Basin and lower Colorado River Valley by this evening.
Scenario will continue to favor supercells, particularly for eastern
Arizona and western New Mexico from a longer-duration and tornado
perspective, as low-level winds otherwise will tend to take on more
of a westerly component over time farther west across Arizona as the
upper trough approaches. Severe probabilities have been
increased/expanded northward toward the Four Corners/Colorado
Plateau vicinity, where an atypically rare setup of
deep-layer/low-level shear coincident with modest but adequate
severe-conducive degree of destabilization is expected.
As compared to yesterday, a greater coverage of storms will likely
exist by later today/afternoon, which may mean a less-discrete
nature of the supercells, but with more numerous
severe-caliber/supercell storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds and a tornado risk. Recent Tucson WSR-88D VWP data still
reflects strong low-level shear/SRH and (splitting)
supercell-favorable deep-layer wind profiles, with the probability
that tornado potential will probably maximize across eastern
Arizona/far western New Mexico this afternoon into evening,
especially where topography influences a low-level easterly wind
component. Large hail will be associated with both left-moving and
right-moving supercells.
Farther north-northwest into the Great Basin, both low-level
moisture and related MLCAPE are generally more limited. Even so,
multiple corridors of isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado
potential will exist this afternoon. This will be as semi-low-topped
convection develops ahead of the eastward-translating upper
trough/low amid strong southerly flow/shear through much of the
troposphere.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/22/2026
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across the Southwest,
with the most intense cells expected across parts of Arizona and
western New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
...20z Update...
Convective coverage has increased across portions of
eastern/northeastern Arizona over the past couple of hours, with
widely scattered supercell structures noted through the
morning/early afternoon via regional radar imagery. Expectations
remain generally unchanged regarding the evolution of this
convection and the associated severe threat across much of eastern
Arizona/western New Mexico and the Four Corners region. Thus, no
changes were made to the primary risk area.
Along the periphery, a minor eastward expansion of the existing
Level 1/Marginal Risk was made along the central CO/NM border where
some low-probability potential for mainly damaging wind gusts may
persist farther eastward. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were
made to the General Thunder area, including some trimming along the
California coastline to the west of the mid/upper trough axis. See
the previous discussion and MCD #2399 for additional information.
..Chalmers.. 10/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026/
...Arizona/Four Corners and Great Basin...
Another active and relatively rare setup from a climatological
perspective continues regionally, and will tend to shift
east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. This will be
as the upper low in vicinity of the SoCal coast continues to become
more northeastward progressive today, reaching portions of the Great
Basin and lower Colorado River Valley by this evening.
Scenario will continue to favor supercells, particularly for eastern
Arizona and western New Mexico from a longer-duration and tornado
perspective, as low-level winds otherwise will tend to take on more
of a westerly component over time farther west across Arizona as the
upper trough approaches. Severe probabilities have been
increased/expanded northward toward the Four Corners/Colorado
Plateau vicinity, where an atypically rare setup of
deep-layer/low-level shear coincident with modest but adequate
severe-conducive degree of destabilization is expected.
As compared to yesterday, a greater coverage of storms will likely
exist by later today/afternoon, which may mean a less-discrete
nature of the supercells, but with more numerous
severe-caliber/supercell storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds and a tornado risk. Recent Tucson WSR-88D VWP data still
reflects strong low-level shear/SRH and (splitting)
supercell-favorable deep-layer wind profiles, with the probability
that tornado potential will probably maximize across eastern
Arizona/far western New Mexico this afternoon into evening,
especially where topography influences a low-level easterly wind
component. Large hail will be associated with both left-moving and
right-moving supercells.
Farther north-northwest into the Great Basin, both low-level
moisture and related MLCAPE are generally more limited. Even so,
multiple corridors of isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado
potential will exist this afternoon. This will be as semi-low-topped
convection develops ahead of the eastward-translating upper
trough/low amid strong southerly flow/shear through much of the
troposphere.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New
Mexico on Friday.
...Synopsis...
Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend across much of the
western CONUS early Friday morning. Several shortwave troughs will
be embedded within the larger scale troughing, including one moving
northeastward across the eastern Great Basin towards western WY, one
moving through the base of the parent trough across southern CA and
another dropping quickly southward across the Sierra toward central
and southern CA. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue
northeastward through western WY and eastern MT before interacting
with an intensifying shortwave trough moving across the Canadian
Prairies. Evolution and interaction between the southernmost
shortwaves is expected to yield a closed cyclone centered over the
Lower CO Valley by early Saturday morning.
This overall evolution will foster a persistence of the deep
southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest across the central
Rockies into the northern Plains. The overall troughing will have a
slight positive tilt, but the mean eastward shift will foster modest
height falls during the afternoon and evening across the Southwest.
These height falls, and associated southerly low-level flow, will
support scattered to numerous thunderstorms across NM, including the
potential for some strong to severe storms. Additional thunderstorms
appear likely near the embedded cold core as it moves across the
northern Intermountain West, and within a band of warm-air advection
farther east across the Upper MS Valley.
...New Mexico...
As mentioned in the synopsis, deep southwesterly flow is forecast to
persist across the NM throughout the period. At the same time, a
seasonably moist airmass will advect northward in the region.
Uncertainty exists regarding potential heating and mixing of this
moistening airmass, with some guidance notably more cloudy and less
mixed. Current expectation is for the greatest potential for heating
and mixing to remain over southern portions of the state, with more
clouds and less heating with northern extent.
Even with this limited heating, moist low to mid-levels and cool
mid-level temperatures will still support modest buoyancy across
northern/central NM, beginning early Friday morning. Multiple rounds
of thunderstorms are possible across this region, with the
combination of modest buoyancy and strong deep-layer vertical shear
supportive of organized updrafts. Hail will be the primary risk,
with isolated strong gusts possible as well. Given the potential for
supercells and moist low-levels, a low-probability tornado risk
exists as well.
Stronger heating and warmer temperatures appear more likely farther
south, which will combine with greater low-level moisture support
greater overall buoyancy and a relatively higher chance for
organized updrafts capable of large hail and strong gusts. Some
questions exist on how much low-level moisture will be in place
(i.e. low 50s dewpoints vs. upper 50s/low 60s), but the higher
dewpoint solutions suggest overall profiles supportive of very large
hail (i.e. greater than 2"+) and tornadoes.
..Mosier.. 10/22/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind/hail or a tornado are possible across portions
of central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
Southern-stream cyclone is forecast to begin the period over the
Lower CO Valley. Substantial upper ridging downstream across the MS
Valley will limit the eastward progression of this cyclone, and the
general expectation is for this cyclone to be centered over central
AZ by early Sunday morning. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will
persist between the western cyclone and eastern ridging, extending
from northwest Mexico across NM and the central Plains. Lower
surface pressure will also precede this cyclone, resulting in a
tightened gradient and increased southeasterly low-level flow into
the Southwest.
...Central/southern NM into Far West TX...
Increasing low-level moisture coupled with at least modest daytime
heating will foster airmass destabilization by the early afternoon
across central/southern NM into far west TX, downstream of the
slowly approaching cyclone. Greatest low-level moisture (and
resultant buoyancy) is expected from far west TX into southern NM,
with more limited low-level moisture and buoyancy farther north. The
moderately strong and deep southwesterly flow aloft will support
long hodographs, and an attendant potential for supercells with any
persistent updrafts. Large hail should be the primary risk, with
some threat for damaging gusts and tornadoes as well. A relatively
higher severe risk could materialize from south-central NM into far
west TX where higher dewpoints and stronger southeasterly surface
winds are possible. Uncertainty regarding cloudiness and the quality
of the low-level moisture precludes introduces any higher severe
probabilities with this outlook.
..Mosier.. 10/22/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 221700Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes necessary.
Fuels will remain dry amid above normal temperatures and decreasing
RHs over much of the northern High Plains today.
..Stearns.. 10/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broader fire weather concerns remain low across CONUS today. An
upper low will push into the Great Basin today while an associated
mid-level jet approaches the Four Corners region. Cloud cover,
cooler temperatures and precipitation will impact much of the
Intermountain West reducing fire weather concerns across this
region. Surface high pressure entrenched over the eastern CONUS
complimented by upper ridging over the Plains will contribute to
light winds (10 mph or less) over the Deep South where dry and
receptive fuels persist.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING...FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
A Critical wind/RH area was introduced within the existing Elevated
area over the northern High Plains on Day 2/Friday. The latest
forecast guidance has trended to slightly stronger southwesterly
winds (exceeding 30 mph) in some locations. Well above normal
temperatures approaching or exceeding 80 degrees Fahrenheit will be
possible, especially over portions of western SD. Given the
previously mentioned dry fuels, the strength of the winds, and warm
daytime temperatures amid RHs falling to 15-25%, a Critical fire
weather threat will exist Day 2/Friday across a small portion of
northeast Wyoming, far southeastern Montana, and far western South
Dakota.
Additionally, portions of southern Georgia look to experience
slightly drier than normal conditions associated with a
northeasterly wind direction. Though wind speeds are likely to
remain below elevated thresholds, increased initial attack activity
associated with existing dry fuels will remain a concern. Otherwise,
the forecast remains on track as previously described.
..Stearns.. 10/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will push eastward into the Intermountain West
while increasing southwesterly flow associated with a potent
mid-level jet moves over the central Rockies. A deepening surface
low across eastern MT will promote dry and breezy conditions and
increased fire weather threat over parts of the northern High Plains
Day 2/Friday.
...Northern High Plains...
A deepening surface low across eastern MT will evolve Friday as a
50-60 knot mid-level jet ahead of a broad upper trough presses into
the Central Rockies. Resultant deep layer south to southwest flow
and downslope drying ahead of a cold front will bring elevated fire
weather concerns to northeastern WY, far southeastern MT and
adjacent bordering areas of ND and SD where drier fuels exist. HREF
mean wind speeds of 20-30 mph from the south/southwest are likely to
develop by early Friday afternoon while accompanied by localized
minimum RH as low as 15% in some locations, although most areas
within the Elevated highlights will be closer to 20-25%. Above
normal temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s F ahead of an advancing
cold front, lack of recent rainfall and strength of winds should
contribute to the overall wildfire threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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