RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 16 10:53:01 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 16 10:53:01 UTC 2025.
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great
Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon
Friday into Friday night.
...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains...
Overall forecast scenario remains consistent to prior days with an
expansive swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies, downstream of a
longwave trough from northern ON to the Southwest. This will overlap
a similarly oriented surface front, with a cyclone tracking across
the central Great Lakes portion of the baroclinic zone during the
day and a separate low anchored over the southern High Plains.
Mid-level height change appears largely neutral during the first
half of the period, with weak height falls Friday night. A corridor
of elevated thunderstorms across the far northern portion of the
outlook area may be ongoing Friday morning. These could pose a risk
of severe hail downstream through the day. With a pronounced EML
across much of the warm sector, storm development may be delayed
until late afternoon to early evening. Guidance also hints at mid to
upper-level cloud coverage curtailing boundary-layer heating and
weakening lapse rates aloft across the southern Great Plains, along
with pockets of more shallow boundary-layer moisture near the
dryline. Latest trends are for storm development generally along and
to the cool side of the stalled to slowing surface front from OK to
the Mid-MS Valley on Friday evening. Increasing storm coverage is
anticipated Friday night northeastward into the central Great Lakes
and southward in TX. Convection may predominately organize into
clusters in this setup, with strong deep-layer shear supporting a
mix of scattered large hail and damaging winds.
..Grams.. 04/16/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential remains apparent into the weekend, but
predictability wanes substantially by D5/Sunday.
...D4/Saturday...
The persistent longwave trough is expected to breakdown as an
embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse accelerates east across
ON/QC and the basal shortwave impulse moves more gradually east into
the southern High Plains. Through Saturday afternoon, an expansive
swath of strong mid-level flow will persist from the central
Appalachians southwestward into the southern Great Plains. The
nearly stalled baroclinic zone from TX/OK into the Lower OH Valley
will likely be modulated by ongoing convection on Saturday morning.
But with appreciable boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist
air mass to the south-southeast, scattered severe storms are
plausible from the Upper OH Valley through central TX.
...D5/Sunday...
The 00Z GFS and related GEFS are substantially different relative to
24 hours ago with the evolution of the compact shortwave trough
ejecting across the southern Great Plains and the attendant synoptic
cyclone. Most other guidance has remained relatively consistent to
prior days with probable cyclogenesis from OK to the Lower MO
Valley. This would result in a confined belt of strong mid-level
southwesterlies overlapping a broad warm sector with rich western
Gulf moisture. Potentially extensive convection in parts of OK/TX on
Sunday morning does complicate exactly how far north-northwest
appreciable destabilization may occur into the Ozarks/Lower MO
Valley and beyond. Overall setup outside of the GFS-based guidance
appears to support scattered severe storms across the South-Central
States on Sunday afternoon/evening.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH
OF NEW MEXICO...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern
California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds
across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee
troughing will increase through the day.
...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains...
The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but
moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the
lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad
portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The
strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH
of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical
fire weather threat.
...Central High Plains...
With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and
eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop
during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire
weather is expected this afternoon.
...Mid-Missouri Valley...
Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late
morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during
the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the
amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region.
Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat.
..Wendt.. 04/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward on
Thursday. Mid-level winds will increase and peak during the
afternoon in New Mexico. A deep surface low will develop in eastern
Colorado into western Kansas. A cold front will move southward into
the central Plains by late afternoon.
...New Mexico...
A significant fire weather event is expected across much of New
Mexico. Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph appear likely,
particularly in portions of central and northeastern New Mexico.
Wind gusts with the mid-level jet overhead will approach 50-60 mph.
ERC data shows much of this region at or above the 90th percentile
due to ongoing severe drought. A swath of 5-10% RH is also probable
during the afternoon. These conditions will promote extreme fire
behavior should any ignitions occur.
...Southern High Plains...
RH values near 10% are expected to extend into parts of eastern
Colorado, western/central Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.
Strong winds of 20-30 mph are also expected. The strongest winds are
expected from the northwest Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southeast
Colorado and far southwest Kansas. Strong downslope winds will
extend into parts of the central Front Range. Critical fire weather
will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry
fuels. The critical highlights have been kept out of parts of the
Texas Panhandle/South Plains where greenup will mitigate fuel
receptiveness. Elsewhere, elevated to critical fire weather can be
expect for several hours. The northern extent of the greatest fire
weather risk will be delineated by the southward moving cold front.
Some areas of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas will see
elevated to briefly critical conditions before winds shift to the
north and RH rises.
..Wendt.. 04/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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