RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 2 16:26:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 2 16:26:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.
...Mid-Atlantic States/Cumberland Plateau...
A progressive stream of westerlies will continue to reside over the
northern third of the CONUS through tonight. An extensive
northeast/southwest-oriented cold front will continue
east-southeastward, reaching the coastal Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by
this evening, while otherwise crossing the Tennessee Valley and
lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will
accompany the front, while also being common across coastal areas of
the Gulf Coast and Southeast.
As the cold front approaches the coastal Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva later
this evening, semi-strong wind profiles (35+ kt effective shear)
will exist regionally, and to a lesser extent southwestward toward
the Appalachians and Cumberland Plateau. A couple of stronger storms
with gusty winds could materialize this afternoon near/ahead of the
front in these regions provided sufficient insolation/modest
destabilization. However, moist-profile/subsidence-related poor
lapse rates aloft should preclude organized severe storms.
..Guyer/Dean.. 10/02/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will continue progressing eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today, as a surface cold front advances
east-southeastward over these regions and the Southeast/southern
Plains through the period. 12Z observed soundings ahead of the front
from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast show very poor lapse rates aloft
(i.e., 700-500 mb lapse rates of 4-5.5 C/km), which will likely
limit the development of any more than weak instability and hinder
overall updraft strength. While locally gusty winds could still
occur with low-topped showers/thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic
given the presence of modestly enhanced low/mid-level
west-southwesterly flow, the potential for organized clusters
capable of producing severe/damaging winds still appears low. Weaker
flow across the TN Valley and central Gulf Coast states will limit
updraft organization, but marginally greater instability should
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage through the
afternoon along/ahead of the cold front.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 10/02/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026
Valid 021700Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track with no changes needed.
..Stearns.. 10/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
No fire-weather concerns are forecast for today. Fuel receptiveness
has largely been tempered across much the U.S. owing to recent
wetting rainfall. In the areas where fuels remain relatively dry,
calm surface conditions will limit potential for wildfire spread.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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