RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 346 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 292050Z - 300400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 346
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast New Mexico
Far West into West and West-Central Texas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
inches in diameter likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop
over the northwestern half of the Watch this afternoon. The
stronger thunderstorms will likely become supercells and be capable
of large to giant hail (1 to 3.5 inches in diameter). A tornado is
possible early this evening before additional storms congeal into an
eastward-moving thunderstorm cluster. Severe gusts ranging from
60-85 mph are possible with the more intense downdrafts within the
cluster.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west northwest
of Carlsbad NM to 65 miles north northeast of San Angelo TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28020.
...Smith
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WW 0346 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 346
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CNM
TO 55 ENE HOB TO 50 NNW ABI.
..SPC..05/30/25
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 346
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC003-033-059-081-083-103-109-115-135-151-165-173-227-235-253-
301-317-329-335-353-371-383-389-399-415-417-431-441-451-461-475-
495-300140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN CALLAHAN
COKE COLEMAN CRANE
CULBERSON DAWSON ECTOR
FISHER GAINES GLASSCOCK
HOWARD IRION JONES
LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND
MITCHELL NOLAN PECOS
REAGAN REEVES RUNNELS
SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING
TAYLOR TOM GREEN UPTON
WARD WINKLER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 30 01:16:11 UTC 2025.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL TX...
...SUMMARY...
Large to very large hail, significant severe gusts, and a couple of
tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of west and
central Texas. Strong to locally severe storms are also possible
tonight from parts of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South.
...Parts of central/west TX...
An intense supercell is moving southward this evening across the TX
Permian Basin, with other cells noted into parts of the TX Big
Country, in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Evolution
of convection into later tonight across the region is somewhat
uncertain, but if additional development can occur this evening
along the front, then some upscale growth will be possible,
potentially spreading a somewhat greater threat for severe gusts
southeastward into south-central TX later tonight. In the short
term, ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of very
large hail and severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph). Some
tornado threat could also develop with supercells near the surface
boundary.
...AR into parts of the TN Valley...
As a shortwave moves through the base of an amplifying
mid/upper-level trough tonight, a gradually deepening surface low
will move from eastern AR into southern KY. Scattered storms are
expected to develop and move eastward in conjunction with the
shortwave trough and surface low. Instability will likely remain
relatively modest, but increasingly favorable wind profiles could
support development of a couple supercells, with at least an
isolated threat for all severe hazards.
...Southeast/Carolinas...
Stronger convection has mostly become confined to near the FL East
Coast and parts of NC. Modestly favorable deep-layer shear in
advance of a shortwave trough moving across GA could still support
redevelopment of a strong storm or two through the evening.
..Dean.. 05/30/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
...Columbia Basin...
An upper-level trough and associated cold front moving into Pacific
Northwest will aid in bringing stronger winds into the Columbia
Gorge/Columbia Basin on Day 3/Saturday. Breezy winds combined with
afternoon relative humidity as low as 20 percent are expected prior
to the arrival of a cooler, moister Pacific air mass heading into
Day 4/Sunday. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions
are expected, with dry grasses being the primary fire spread fuel
component.
...Sierra Nevada/Western Nevada...
The incoming Pacific Northwest trough will support dry, downslope
winds along and east of the Sierra Crest into western Nevada and
high desert areas around the California/Nevada/Oregon border. Fuels
will undergo swift drying as record heat develops from the Day
2/Friday to Day 3/Saturday period. The digging trough, along with a
dry cold front passing through the region on Day 4/Sunday will
continue to support Elevated to locally Critical fire weather
conditions across far northeastern California into northwestern
Nevada. A 40 percent probability area was added to highlight this
weekend fire weather threat.
...Southwest...
A cut-off upper-level low will usher in considerable subtropical and
tropical moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin over the
weekend. Although a dry sub-cloud layer will exist across southern
Arizona Saturday, weak forcing and ample mid/upper level cloud cover
will limit convective instability, limiting thunderstorm
probabilities and dry lightning threat. Moisture plume will continue
to increase through Day 4/Sunday resulting in anomalously high
precipitable water values (>3 standard deviation) before upper-low
finally shifts northeastward into the Four Corners region through
Day 5/Monday. Widespread, wetting rainfall across portions of
Arizona and New Mexico are expected where fuels remain driest,
temporarily mitigating fire weather concerns into next week.
..Williams.. 05/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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