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  Wednesday January 19, 2022

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16

WW 16 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX CW 191905Z - 200100Z
      
WW 0016 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 16
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
105 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Far southern Arkansas
  Western to northern Louisiana
  East and southeast Texas
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 105 PM
  until 700 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A continued increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected
through early evening. Wind profiles should become more favorable
for a few supercells and potential clusters, posing a primary threat
of hail and wind.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Monroe LA to 10 miles west southwest of Galveston TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.

...Grams

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 17 Status Reports

WW 0017 Status Updates
      
WW 0017 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 17

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW MLU
TO 60 SSE GLH TO 25 SSE GWO TO 35 SW TUP.

WW 17 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 200100Z.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088

..MOORE..01/20/22

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 17 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

LAC025-029-041-065-083-107-200100-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

CATAHOULA            CONCORDIA           FRANKLIN            
MADISON              RICHLAND            TENSAS              


MSC051-149-163-200100-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HOLMES               WARREN              YAZOO               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16 Status Reports

WW 0016 Status Updates
      
WW 0016 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 16

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CLL TO
30 NNW LFK TO 20 SSE GGG TO 10 S TXK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089

..MOORE..01/20/22

ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC027-139-200140-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLUMBIA             UNION               


LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-031-043-049-053-059-061-
069-073-079-081-085-111-115-119-127-200140-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                BEAUREGARD          BIENVILLE           
BOSSIER              CADDO               CALCASIEU           
CALDWELL             CAMERON             CLAIBORNE           
DE SOTO              GRANT               JACKSON             
JEFFERSON DAVIS      LA SALLE            LINCOLN             
NATCHITOCHES         OUACHITA            RAPIDES             
RED RIVER            SABINE              UNION               
VERNON               WEBSTER             WINN                

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SPC MD 89

MD 0089 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 16... FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
MD 0089 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0089
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

Areas affected...eastern and southeastern Texas into northern and
western Louisiana and adjacent southern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16...

Valid 192347Z - 200145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16
continues.

SUMMARY...Local severe risk continues in and near WW 16.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows two zones of thunderstorms --
one evolving near, or just behind the advancing cold front, and a
second from southeastern Texas northeastward into western and
central Louisiana.

Within the frontal band of storms farther east/southeast, one cell
in particular -- moving out of Harrison County Texas into Caddo
Parish in northwestern Louisiana -- has produced 2-inch hail in the
past hour, but the cell has weakened some over the past half hour. 
Still, ascent near -- and just to the cool side -- of this boundary
will continue to support storm development.  Given mixed-layer CAPE
in the 500 to 1000 J/kg and west-southwesterly mid-level flow in the
50 to 60 kt range, occasionally organized cells will remain
possible, accompanied by hail and locally gusty winds locally.

Within the broader, more loosely organized zone of storms farther
east/southeast, convection has remained less intense/short-lived in
general.  Recently, one small cell in Angelina County Texas has
begun showing signs of rotation, and potential for additional
rotating cells remains a possibility given modestly
veering/increasing low-level flow with height.  Along with marginal
hail, a locally strong gust or two -- or even a weak/brief tornado
-- will be possible prior to frontal passage.

..Goss.. 01/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON   32749412 33479326 33029156 31849169 29869320 29199678
            29589713 30999508 32239513 32749412 

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SPC Jan 20, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND WESTERN/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds, hail and a brief tornado are possible into
the early overnight hours, mainly from east Texas across western and
northern Louisiana.

The line of storms across northern Mississippi has outrun the best
instability and thus any appreciable severe weather threat. Farther
southwest, scattered thunderstorms continue from southeast Texas
into Louisiana. Expect this activity to continue to pose an isolated
to scattered severe weather threat for a few more hours before the
threat wanes overnight. For more information, see mesoscale
discussion 89.

..Bentley.. 01/20/2022

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