RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 487 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 292235Z - 300400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 487
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
535 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western into Northern Oklahoma
Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 535 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast
to develop through the early evening and persist into the mid to
late evening. The more intense thunderstorms will be capable of
severe gusts (60-75 mph). Isolated large hail may accompany the
stronger thunderstorm cores.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west of
Amarillo TX to 20 miles south southeast of Ponca City OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 482...WW 483...WW
484...WW 485...WW 486...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29015.
...Smith
Read more
WW 486 SEVERE TSTM KS MO OK 292205Z - 300400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 486
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Kansas
Southwest into Central Missouri
Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to
develop late this afternoon into the evening across the northern
part of the Watch area and gradually push east-southeast. Severe
gusts 60-75 mph will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms,
although large hail 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter will be possible
with the more intense thunderstorms.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west of
Bartlesville OK to 30 miles east northeast of Vichy MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 482...WW 483...WW
484...WW 485...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
28015.
...Smith
Read more
WW 485 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 292105Z - 300400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 485
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Indiana
Northern Kentucky
Southwest Ohio
* Effective this Saturday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight
EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A bowing line segment will continue to shift
east/southeast through this evening. The main risk with this
activity will be severe gusts with localized wind damage expected.
The severe threat should wane with southward extent toward mid to
late evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west of Dayton
OH to 40 miles southeast of Cincinnati OH. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 482...WW 483...WW 484...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Leitman
Read more
WW 484 SEVERE TSTM NJ PA 292055Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
455 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western New Jersey
Eastern Pennsylvania
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until
1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms moving eastward should pose some
risk for severe/damaging winds late this afternoon into the evening,
perhaps up to 60-70 mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of
Allentown PA to 30 miles west southwest of Philadelphia PA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 482...WW 483...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 483 SEVERE TSTM MD VA WV 292020Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 483
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
420 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Maryland
Northern Virginia
Northern and Central West Virginia
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 420 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered damaging winds up to 55-70 mph may occur as
thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon and evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30
statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of Elkins
WV to 20 miles east of Martinsburg WV. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 482...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WEINMAN..06/29/24
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-011-039-043-045-047-053-071-073-083-093-103-119-129-
300140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER
DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD
GRANT KAY KINGFISHER
LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE
PAYNE ROGER MILLS
TXC011-065-179-211-233-341-375-381-393-483-300140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON GRAY
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON MOORE
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
WHEELER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
Read more
WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EMP TO
20 NE CNU TO 40 WSW JEF TO 40 ENE COU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483
..WEINMAN..06/29/24
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...EAX...LSX...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-011-019-021-035-037-049-099-125-133-205-300040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA
CHEROKEE COWLEY CRAWFORD
ELK LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO WILSON
MOC011-015-029-039-051-055-057-059-073-077-085-097-105-109-125-
131-141-145-151-161-167-169-185-217-300040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BENTON CAMDEN
CEDAR COLE CRAWFORD
DADE DALLAS GASCONADE
GREENE HICKORY JASPER
LACLEDE LAWRENCE MARIES
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
Read more
WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 485
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W LUK TO
10 NNE LUK TO 35 E DAY.
..WEINMAN..06/29/24
ATTN...WFO...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC029-115-137-155-300040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEARBORN OHIO RIPLEY
SWITZERLAND
KYC015-023-037-041-077-081-117-135-161-187-191-201-300040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BRACKEN CAMPBELL
CARROLL GALLATIN GRANT
KENTON LEWIS MASON
OWEN PENDLETON ROBERTSON
OHC001-015-025-027-047-071-131-141-145-165-300040-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE CXY
TO 30 N EWR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481
..WEINMAN..06/29/24
ATTN...WFO...PHI...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NJC019-041-300040-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HUNTERDON WARREN
PAC011-017-029-045-077-091-095-101-300040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKS BUCKS CHESTER
DELAWARE LEHIGH MONTGOMERY
NORTHAMPTON PHILADELPHIA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482
..WEINMAN..06/29/24
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RLX...PBZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC001-023-043-300040-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY GARRETT WASHINGTON
VAC043-069-171-187-840-300040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE FREDERICK SHENANDOAH
WARREN
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
WINCHESTER
WVC001-003-007-013-017-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-041-057-065-
071-077-083-085-087-091-093-097-101-105-300040-
Read more
WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW HGR
TO 30 SE IPT.
..WEINMAN..06/29/24
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
PAC001-041-043-071-075-099-107-133-292340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN
LANCASTER LEBANON PERRY
SCHUYLKILL YORK
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 1484 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487... FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwestern
Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487...
Valid 300000Z - 300130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 487. Severe gusts are the main threat, though an instance of
large hail cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Several pulse-single cells, multicells, and transient
supercells have formed along the slowly southward-sagging surface
cold front over the past couple of hours. At least one measured
severe gust has been reported in northern OK, with regional and MRMS
mosaic radar data showing severe hail and wind potential with the
storms over the TX Panhandle. The ambient atmosphere can still be
characterized by strong to locally extreme instability, so any of
the stronger storms progressing within a pristine airmass may still
produce severe wind and hail over the next few hours.
..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...
LAT...LON 35620220 36040129 36809823 36899722 36579692 36079703
35749811 35419952 35200052 35100136 35080194 35620220
Read more
MD 1483 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486... FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1483
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Areas affected...portions of extreme southeast Kansas into far
northeast Oklahoma...southwestern Missouri...and extreme
northwestern Arkansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486...
Valid 292336Z - 300100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 486. Severe wind and hail remain the primary threats. The best
chance for severe wind/hail in the near-term exists with a cluster
of storms along the KS/OK border
DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorm clusters have developed along the
cold front, with a mature, dominant cluster progressing across
southeast KS toward OK. This cluster has a history of large hail and
severe gusts, and these storms continue to track southward into a
strongly unstable airmass. As such, additional instances of severe
wind and hail should continue with this cluster over the next
several hours. These storms may progress just south of the WW 486
bounds, potentially necessitating the need of an additional
downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. There is also a
slight chance for storms to initiate along a stationary boundary
across extreme northern Arkansas. Should this occur, multicells may
result, posing a threat of severe wind and hail.
..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 36129340 35979454 36139561 36539611 36829615 36959601
37249515 37459431 37409285 36809240 36359264 36129340
Read more
MD 1482 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483... FOR NORTHERN WV AND THE WESTERN MD PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1482
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Areas affected...northern WV and the western MD Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483...
Valid 292330Z - 300100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483
continues.
SUMMARY...A marginal and fairly isolated severe threat may persist
through about dusk. Additional severe thunderstorm watch issuance
beyond the 02Z expiration is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...A lone robust updraft exists within WW 483 across north
WV. This specific cell appeared to be a left-split amid a nearly
unidirectional wind profile inferred between RLX/PBZ VWPs. This may
have briefly produced marginally severe hail per MESH signatures,
but appears to have peaked. In its wake, a stronger storm cluster
over southwest OH has likewise appeared to have peaked in convective
intensity. With weak low-level flow persisting to the south of both
convective areas, the overall severe threat should continue on a
diminishing trend, although storms should persist beyond dusk.
..Grams.. 06/29/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39358054 39487983 39647828 39627782 39587754 39317753
38757984 38698084 38868125 39358054
Read more
MD 1481 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 484... FOR SOUTHEAST PA...NJ...FAR NORTHERN MD/DE
Mesoscale Discussion 1481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Areas affected...Southeast PA...NJ...far northern MD/DE
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484...
Valid 292238Z - 300015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong to localized severe wind gusts from 50-65 mph will
remain possible, mainly focused across southeast Pennsylvania and
adjacent states. How far downstream this extends east of the
Delaware Valley is uncertain, with forecast expectation of weakening
farther east into New Jersey.
DISCUSSION...A surging accelerated portion of a short-line segment
has bowed across a part of east-central to southeast Pennsylvania.
Its current eastward track will result in movement into a more
weakly unstable air mass. But given its organization, a damaging
wind threat will probably spread east of WW 484 into NJ before
diminishing. Meanwhile, supercell structure exists within the
tail-end robust updraft in south-central PA. With a plume of low 90s
surface temperatures emanating north over central MD, it is
plausible the lagging portion of the convective line may undergo a
similar acceleration and bowing surge. This could potentially impact
parts of far northern MD/DE, adjacent to WWs 482/484.
..Grams.. 06/29/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 40767627 40817526 40707448 40637413 40057407 39677546
39507641 39647702 40067726 40767627
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...OZARKS VICINITY...AND THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS......
...SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible
today over parts of the Lower Great Lakes to upper Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic. Severe gusts may also be focused this afternoon and
evening over the Ozarks vicinity, and the Raton Mesa and adjacent
south-central High Plains.
...20Z Update...
Extended the Slight Risk westward toward Indiana due to ongoing
severe cluster of storms, and an extremely moist air mass ahead of
it. GPS PWAT values exceed 2.25" over much of the area, and
low-level lapse rates continue to steepen just south, which should
support corridors of damaging wind.
Farther east, tornado watch 482 remains in effect from eastern OH
into PA and toward the NY border. Scattered storms persist, and
southwesterly low-level winds will aid theta-e advection into the
region. In addition, 0-1 km SRH remains favorable at over 150 m2/s2
from OH to central PA, with stronger values up to 300 m2/s2 into NY
where the air mass is less unstable. As such, stronger cells
developing this afternoon may acquire rotation with tornado
potential.
Overnight, the strong shortwave trough will move across southwest
Ontario, skirting the Lake Ontario area and into northern NY. Given
the strength of the trough, and forecast theta-e advection around
850 mb ahead of the system, additional nocturnal storms producing
wind or hail will be possible.
..Jewell.. 06/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/
...Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of
northern/central OH. As an upper trough over the Great Lakes and
eastern Canada continues to move eastward through the period,
current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in
coverage and intensity this afternoon across eastern OH into western
PA. Recent visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloudiness
across this area, which should hinder diurnal heating to some
extent. Still, even modest heating of the rather moist low-level
airmass should support at least weak instability by late this
afternoon. Low-level and deep-layer shear appear sufficiently strong
for a mix of multicells and supercells. Damaging winds will be a
concern with any bowing cluster that can form and spread eastward
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon/evening. A
couple of tornadoes may also occur with any sustained supercell or
embedded QLCS circulations. See Mesoscale Discussion 1472 for more
details on the short-term severe threat across OH into northern WV
and western PA.
There also appears to be some chance for additional convection to
develop along the cold front across IL/IN this afternoon, perhaps
associated with a remnant MCV over eastern MO. Substantial
cloudiness is present across much of this region ahead of the front.
But, any thunderstorms that can form may be capable of producing
isolated hail and/or strong to damaging winds. Considered including
this area in a Slight Risk, but confidence remains low in robust
convection persisting with eastward extent into the OH Valley in the
wake of earlier thunderstorm activity.
...Ozarks...
A Slight Risk for damaging winds has been introduced for southern
MO, northeast OK, and vicinity. Outflow from earlier convection,
along with the slowly sagging cold front, should continue southward
across these areas through late afternoon while also providing a
focus for additional convection. Moderate to strong instability is
forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow zone along/ahead of
the front. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, most
12Z guidance shows a greater concentration of robust convection
developing across southern MO and vicinity late this afternoon and
early evening. Loosely organized clusters capable of producing
mainly damaging winds should spread generally east-southeastward
through the evening. Isolated hail may also occur.
...Southern/Central High Plains...
No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the
southern/central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop during the late afternoon and evening in a weak
post-frontal, upslope flow regime. Generally upper 50s to low 60s
surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a
narrow corridor of moderate instability by late afternoon. While
mid-level flow is expected to remain weak, vertically veering wind
profiles with height through mid/upper levels will support
sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells and
loosely organized clusters developing off the higher terrain of
southern CO and northern NM. Occasional severe gusts appear possible
with this activity as low-level lapse rates become steepened through
diurnal heating. Some hail may also occur with the strongest cores.
...Michigan...
Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak
mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume
of weak instability, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by this
afternoon. Strong speed shear will support hodograph elongation.
This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail
and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. into Lower MI.
But, overall coverage of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to
remain rather limited across this area.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN...
...20z Update...
Minimal changes have been made to the valid outlook. The ISODRYT
area was expanded north into southeast OR to better capture expected
storm coverage over the eastern Cascades. Otherwise, please see the
prior discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 06/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a
mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the
Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to
the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will
support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The
best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada
into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface
winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly
receptive fuels for several hours.
Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected
ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over
northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet
and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests
these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal
precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region,
lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the
introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0428 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Valid 011200Z - 071200Z
While initially limited in scope, fire-weather concerns appear
likely to increase through the extended forecast period as a strong
ridge of high pressure builds over the West Coast. Very hot
temperatures and dry surface conditions should gradually increase
fire danger over much of the West, as stronger northwest flow over
the Great Basin will continue through mid to late week. Ridge
breakdown is expected late in the forecast period as early as next
weekend. Uncertainty on the character of the pattern following this
transition remains high, but dry and breezy conditions are possible
through much of next week and into next weekend across the interior
Northwest and Great Basin
...Interior Pac. Northwest & northern Great Basin...
As the ridge builds quickly this weekend, enhanced flow aloft will
develop along the eastern periphery as a weak trough moves south out
of Canada. At the surface, a weak cold front should move south into
the Great Basin, enhancing surface winds and the chance for isolated
thunderstorms over parts of OR, NV, UT, and ID. Isolated critical
fire-weather conditions could occur D3/Mon as the gusty winds and
low RH spread through the northern Great Basin and Snake River
Valley.
Behind the front, dry northwesterly surface flow should continue
through the first part of the week as the ridge aloft intensifies.
Very warm temperatures should allow for an increase in fire danger
indices through the week before another shortwave trough and cold
front pass along the eastern portion of the ridge D5/Wed and
D6/Thur. Gusty surface winds are likely over portions of the
northern Great Basin and southern ID along, with very dry surface
conditions. With increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather
conditions may develop.
At the end of the forecast period, most medium-range guidance shows
the upper-ridge breaking down ahead of a trough moving into the
Pacific Northwest. It remains unclear exactly how this transition
will evolve, with some guidance showing an increase in showers and
thunderstorms, while others show a more substantial increase in hot,
dry and windy conditions with trough passage. Regardless of the
outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely, owing
to the antecedent hot and dry conditions beneath the weakening
ridge.
...Northern CA...
Under the ridge aloft, a thermal trough is likely to extend from the
Desert Southwest through northern CA, leading to poor RH recovery
and occasional gusty winds from early to mid week next week. Gusty
northerly winds are possible in portions of northern CA, especially
in/around the Sacramento Valley. Drying fuels and the increase in
temperatures are likely to support at least some isolated
fire-weather risk through the next several days, though the exact
coverage and duration are currently unclear.
..Lyons.. 06/29/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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