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  Thursday February 29, 2024

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 29 08:07:02 UTC 2024

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 29 08:07:02 UTC 2024.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 29 08:07:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Feb 29, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large negative-tilt upper trough will quickly move across the
Northeast today, with upper riding over the northern Plains.
Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the
southern Plains during the day, likely losing amplitude as it moves
across the lower MS Valley overnight. To the west, substantial
cooling aloft will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a strong
midlevel jet noses into northern CA.

In advance of the southern Plains trough, a cool air mass will exist
at the surface due to a strong surface high over land, and poor
trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico initially. Low-level winds will
veer to southerly overnight however, and robust moisture will return
northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Through 12Z Friday, it appears
only elevated instability will be present over land, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms most likely tonight from eastern TX into
LA. Poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude any severe hail threat.

..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/29/2024

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SPC Feb 29, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...

A weak upper shortwave trough will migrate from the Lower MS Valley
toward the Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Friday. Only very weak surface
low development may occur near or just offshore the central Gulf
Coast in response to the upper wave. Most forecast guidance keeps
any deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. Cloud cover will
inhibit much warming during the day, along with ongoing showers and
thunderstorms. Though modest midlevel lapse rates will reside over
the region, surface-based destabilization is not expected and at
least a weak low-level inversion is depicted in most forecast
soundings. Nevertheless, minor elevated instability will support
isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. Some gusty winds may
accompany thunderstorms given strong flow not far above the
near-surface layer, but overall severe potential appears low given
poor low-level thermodynamics. 

Across the western U.S., a persistent, broad upper trough will
continue to impact the Pacific Northwest vicinity. Strong
deep-layers westerly flow will maintain a deep moist layer. Cold
temperature aloft will also result in steep lapse rates and
sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorms in
orographic ascent along the WA/OR coast and into northern CA.

..Leitman.. 02/29/2024

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SPC Feb 29, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

Isolated thunderstorm chances will continue across parts of the
Southeast and FL on Saturday as a weak shortwave impulse migrates
across the region. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s across the
FL Peninsula are expected. However, a warm and dry layer aloft will
limit surface-based instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 750
J/kg. Large-scale ascent also will remain weak across the region.
Overall severe potential appears low.

Across the western U.S., the upper trough along the Pacific Coast
will continue to slowly develop south and east. Isolated
thunderstorms may persist near the OR coast and into parts northern
CA

..Leitman.. 02/29/2024

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

Valid 291200Z - 011200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a departing upper trough over the eastern US, a weak
trough over the southern Plains should lift north into the central
US. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern US will drive
strong southerly return flow across parts of OK KS and NE this
afternoon. Warm and dry surface conditions will also be present
supporting potential for critical fire-weather conditions.

...Central Plains...
With the approach of the weak upper low, surface pressure gradients
are forecast to quickly tighten over the southern and central
Plains. Surface winds will quickly increase to 20-25 mph with gusts
as high as 30-35 mph through the day. Aided by clear skies and
strong heating, afternoon RH values within the dry southerly flow
should fall as low as 15-20%. While area fuel loading is not
particularly dense, numerous days of preceding dry and windy
conditions have resulted in critical dryness of short-hour fuels.
Large vapor pressure deficits combined with the strong winds and
clear skies should support additional drying through the day. Thus,
widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions appear
likely across parts of north-central/northeast KS into southeastern
NE.

...Gulf Coast...
Dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the
Southeast and central Gulf Coast in the wake of the departing cold
front. While winds are not overly strong, lower humidity should
overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized
fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase late
tonight into Friday.

..Lyons.. 02/29/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...Synopsis...
A weak upper low over the southern Plains will continue eastward
Friday with strong flow aloft trailing behind it over the southern
Rockies/High Plains. At the same time a second Pacific trough will
begin to move onshore with strong southwest flow. In the wake of the
upper low, surface winds across the West should begin to slowly
increase in response to the stronger flow aloft. Periods of dry and
breezy conditions are possible Friday across eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle.

...Eastern NM and the TX Panhandle...
As the upper low over the southern Plains departs, flow aloft will
gradually turn westerly ahead of the advancing Pacific system. Winds
aloft are forecast to gradually strengthen through the day, with
40-50 kt of flow over the southern Rockies likely by the afternoon.
Aided by a deepening lee trough, 15-20 mph of westerly downslope
flow is expected over parts of eastern NM into the western TX
Panhandle. Despite some recent light precipitation, this area has
remained largely devoid of meaningful rain/snow in the past several
weeks. Warm temperatures and downslope drying should continue to
support a very dry air mass with minimum RH values of 15-20% and
poor overnight recoveries. Rapid fuel drying has occurred in the
last few days with unusually warm temperatures and a recent uptick
in fire activity. Widespread elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions appear possible Friday afternoon cross parts
of eastern NM and West TX. Localized fire-weather concerns may also
increase farther north across parts of eastern CO, though confidence
in sustained dry and windy conditions here is lower.

..Lyons.. 02/29/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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