RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 23 17:48:02 UTC 2025.
MD 0526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0526
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Areas affected...parts of cntrl and eastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 231654Z - 231930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by
increasing potential to produce severe hail and locally damaging
surface gusts, mainly toward 2-4 PM CDT and later this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Above a modestly moist boundary layer (characterized by
mid/upper 50s F surface dew points), within broad surface troughing
across the central and southern Great Plains, forecast soundings
suggest that a subsidence induced warm/dry layer between 850-700 mb
is still contributing to substantial inhibition across central into
eastern Kansas. However, thunderstorm activity has recently
initiated in a small cluster north of Hutchinson.
Even if this activity is rooted close to the surface, and being
forced through the capping layer, CAPE within/above the mixed-phase
layer still appears modest, with weak shear beneath 10-15+ kt
westerly 500 mb flow also likely to limit potential for large hail
growth. Latest objective analysis, though, does indicate a corridor
of increasing boundary-layer destabilization, roughly along
Interstate 70 near/east of Concordia, in response to continuing
insolation and some further moistening aided by weak low-level
convergence.
As this boundary-layer destabilization progresses (and
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates become rather steep), weakening
mid-level inhibition may allow for intensifying thunderstorm
activity with increasing potential to produce severe hail and
locally damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr/Hart.. 04/23/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39709815 39789622 39619499 38659484 38479620 37969696
38129791 38999807 39709815
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of
the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and
damaging winds possible.
...Central and Southern High Plains...
Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today,
with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong
heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a
diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level
jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from
western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening.
The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over
western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a
strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should
develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing
sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail
will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but
enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a
few tornadoes.
Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered
across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless,
steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will
pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging
winds through the evening.
...Northeast KS...
A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over
central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing
risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon
over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While
this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of
large hail and gusty/damaging winds.
...Southeast States...
Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of
GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development
expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively
disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few
robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds.
..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern
Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma.
Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this
activity.
...Synopsis...
A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail
across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is
progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough
moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern
New England. A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to
pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast
through the second half of the period.
At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a
baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper
Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the
background west-southwesterlies. By evening, a weak low is forecast
over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the
trailing front across Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to
mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and
South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening
across the Davis Mountains area. The aforementioned front, and the
dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm
activity.
...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and
northern/western Texas...
Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period
across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and
potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas. The Texas
convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms
-- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may
persist through the day.
By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to
moderate destabilization, additional storm
development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and
southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas. While
deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat
weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering
winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level
rotation with developing storms. Large hail and locally damaging
winds can be expected with the strongest cells.
Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater
potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern
Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles. Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the
surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly
stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a
tornado during the afternoon/early evening.
Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening,
spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a
low-level jet nocturnally increases. Attendant, local risk for
hail/wind may persist through the evening.
..Goss.. 04/23/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Valid 231700Z - 241200Z
...1630Z update...
Current and expected surface observations across the Florida
Peninsula suggest a more limited fire weather threat across the area
today. Fuels remain very dry with relative humidity expected to drop
into the 30-40 percent range this afternoon across the western
Florida Peninsula. However, stronger east-southeast winds associated
with the Atlantic sea breeze will coincide with a fairly rapid rise
in relative humidity with limited overlap of dry and breezy
conditions across western Florida. Therefore, Elevated highlights
were removed for this afternoon.
Dry and breezy conditions remain across portions of the Southwest
with Elevated highlights remaining in place, although lighter than
expected winds prompted some trimming of Elevated highlights across
the Trans Pecos area.
..Williams/Lyons.. 04/23/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/
...Synopsis...
A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the
western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the
Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level
impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the
southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow
developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a
low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface
winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for
wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are
dry/unaffected by recent rainfall.
Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts
of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph
sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH
atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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