RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 615 SEVERE TSTM AR MO MS TN 221915Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 615
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
215 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern into Central and Eastern Arkansas
Missouri Bootheel
Northern Mississippi
Western Tennessee
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and
intensify this afternoon and pose a risk for severe gusts and
perhaps an isolated threat for large hail. As additional storms
develop and clusters of storms evolve, the risk for severe gusts
will probably increase during the late afternoon through the early
evening as a linear cluster moves southeast. Severe gusts 60 to 75
mph are possible with this activity.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles north of
Russellville AR to 30 miles north northeast of Tupelo MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 614...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
32025.
...Smith
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WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E BNA TO
15 WSW JKL TO 45 SSE HTS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2095
..WEINMAN..08/22/26
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 616
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC025-051-053-071-119-121-125-131-147-193-231-235-230140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREATHITT CLAY CLINTON
FLOYD KNOTT KNOX
LAUREL LESLIE MCCREARY
PERRY WAYNE WHITLEY
TNC027-049-133-137-141-230140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY FENTRESS OVERTON
PICKETT PUTNAM
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
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WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE RUE
TO 60 ENE LIT TO 25 WSW UOX TO 20 SW TUP TO 35 E TUP.
..LYONS..08/23/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 615
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-025-041-043-053-069-079-085-095-105-107-117-119-125-
230240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CLEVELAND DESHA
DREW GRANT JEFFERSON
LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE
PERRY PHILLIPS PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE
MSC011-013-015-017-019-025-027-043-057-083-087-095-097-105-119-
133-135-141-155-161-230240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CALHOUN CARROLL
CHICKASAW CHOCTAW CLAY
COAHOMA GRENADA ITAWAMBA
LEFLORE LOWNDES MONROE
MONTGOMERY OKTIBBEHA QUITMAN
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TISHOMINGO
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WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HTS TO
15 S ZZV TO 25 NNE CMH TO 15 E CLE TO 110 NNW ERI.
..WEINMAN..08/22/26
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...RLX...PBZ...ILN...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC019-043-089-127-222340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOYD CARTER GREENUP
LAWRENCE
NYC003-009-013-029-037-063-073-121-222340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA
ERIE GENESEE NIAGARA
ORLEANS WYOMING
OHC007-009-013-019-029-031-053-055-059-067-075-081-083-085-087-
089-099-103-105-111-115-119-121-133-151-153-155-157-167-169-
222340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Aug 23 02:02:11 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible for another couple
hours across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley before
thunderstorm intensity wanes later this evening and overnight.
... 01Z Update ...
Thunderstorm intensity continues to wane across much of the United
States this evening. The most intense thunderstorms continue to be a
cluster of southeast moving thunderstorms across the lower
Mississippi Valley. Here, strong instability will maintain a hail
and wind threat for a couple more hours before weakening with the
increasing boundary layer stability.
Elsewhere, a few sporadic damaging wind gusts will be possible with
a weakening line of storms across central Pennsylvania south into
southern Virginia over the next couple of hours as well as across
portions of the southern High Plains where a linear MCS continues to
push south and west.
Across portions of the Nebraska Panhandle northwest into eastern
Wyoming and western South Dakota, strong vertical shear and 2000
J/kg MUCAPE will maintain support for a few large hail stones and a
couple of marginally severe wind gusts.
A cluster of storms across south-central Colorado will be capable of
marginally severe hail and wind gusts for another one or two hours
before weakening with the loss of diurnal heating.
Across the west, strong thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible
from northern Utah northward toward far southwest Montana. These
high-based storms will be capable of sporadic downbursts capable of
strong erratic winds.
Lastly, a low probability of marginally severe hail and wind gusts
will remain possible across northern Washington this evening as a
strong mid-level just streak continues to lift northeast into
Canada.
..Marsh.. 08/23/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad high pressure will remain over the Southwestern U.S. while a
mid-level trough arcs eastward, over the northern periphery of the
emergent upper-ridge, reaching the Upper Midwest by the middle of
next week. A weak mid-level perturbation embedded within overall
southwesterly flow could bring some isolated convection to portions
of the northern Great Basin on Day 3/Monday. Another upper trough
impinges upon the Pacific Northwest Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday,
bringing additional fire weather concerns in the form of breezy and
dry conditions to the Columbia Basin and northern Great Basin. This
trough along with modest mid-level moisture in place across the
northern Rockies could bring a dry thunderstorm threat back into
parts of ID and western MT on Day 5/Wednesday.
...Day 3/Monday...
...Northern Great Basin...
A subtle mid-level wave within southwesterly flow aloft and
lingering monsoon moisture should promote isolated afternoon
convection across the northwestern Great Basin on Day 3/Monday.
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible over dry fuels where
ERC values in the 90-95th percentile remain. A 10 percent dry
thunderstorm risk area persists over southeastern OR, southwestern
ID and northern NV.
...Southern Plains...
West to southwest winds of 10-20 mph, high temperatures in the lower
100s F and afternoon RH reductions of 15-20 percent south of a
frontal boundary should evolve over portions of northwestern TX and
far southwestern OK on Day 3/Monday. This hot, dry and breezy
environment combined with extremely dry fuels will likely bring
elevated fire weather concerns to the area. The northern extent of
the existing 40 percent critical probability area was removed owing
to expected farther south positioning of the frontal boundary.
...Day 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday...
Fire weather concerns will increase across the northwestern U.S. as
the next upper-level trough begins to impact the region. Dry and
breezy conditions are likely to emerge east of the Cascades across
northeastern CA, southeastern OR and adjacent NV on Day
4-6/Tuesday-Thursday under dry southwesterly flow and in the
Columbia Basin beginning on Day 5/Wednesday. High-based
thunderstorms are also expected across the northern Rockies where
sufficient but limited moisture aloft (PWATs in the 0.6-0.9" range),
fast shower/thunderstorm motions and dry fuels will support new
ignitions. A broad 10 percent dry thunderstorm risk area was
introduced for portions of central ID and ID Panhandle into western
MT. Dry and breezy conditions are maintained through Day 6/Thursday,
perhaps of greater magnitude, east of the Cascades and northern
Great Basin as the upper trough and associated stronger mid-level
flow moves solidly into the region. 40% critical probabilities were
initially introduced for this threat but expansion and/or upgrade to
70 percent probabilities could occur for future outlooks.
..Williams.. 08/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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