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  Friday May 14, 2021

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri May 14 16:30:02 UTC 2021

No watches are valid as of Fri May 14 16:30:02 UTC 2021.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 14 16:30:02 UTC 2021.

SPC May 14, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
central and southern High Plains late this afternoon through this
evening. Very strong wind gusts and hail up to 2 inches are possible
from extreme northeast Colorado into northwestern Kansas.

...Central High Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough over the
eastern states, with west-northwest flow aloft extending from the
northern Rockies into the mid MS Valley.  A weak frontal boundary
extends from central WY into central NE.  Cool temperatures aloft
and pockets of daytime heating will help to initiate scattered
mid-afternoon thunderstorms along the boundary across the foothills
and higher terrain of central WY and northeast CO.  This activity
will spread east-southeastward into a progressively more moist
boundary layer air mass over northeast CO and western KS with
dewpoints in the 40s and MLCAPE values of 500-750 J/kg.  While the
limited moisture/instability environment will likely limit the
coverage of storms, favorable shear profiles will promote supercell
and bowing structures capable of large hail and gusty winds through
the evening.  Isolated very large hail and/or significant wind gusts
are possible.

...NM/TX...
A surface dryline is expected to extend from southwest KS across the
TX Panhandle into southwest NM this afternoon.  Strong heating will
occur along/west of the boundary with temperatures in the upper 80s
and 90s, while dewpoints climb into the mid 40s to lower 50s to the
east of the dryline.  Most models suggest this combination will be
sufficient to eliminate the cap for a few hours, allowing the
development of isolated thunderstorms.  Forecast soundings and CAM
solutions indicate multicell and occasional supercell storms are
possible, capable of producing hail and damaging winds this evening.


...SD/MN...
A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop today along a
weak cold front extending across western MN into eastern SD. A
combination of strong winds aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates
suggest that hail and gusty winds will be possible in the strongest
cells.  However, limited instability/moisture should preclude a more
organized severe event.

..Hart/Leitman.. 05/14/2021

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SPC May 14, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon
and evening, east of the southern Rockies into parts of the central 
and southern Great Plains. Some of these may pose a risk for large
hail and strong wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Much of southern Canada and the U.S. remains under the influence of
split branches of west-northwesterly mid/upper flow, and models
indicate that a more prominent split will continue to evolve inland
of the Pacific coast through this period.  To the east of building
ridging over the eastern Pacific, a short wave trough (in the
southern branch) is forecast to amplify and dig toward the
California coast, to the south of ridging (in the northern branch)
building inland across British Columbia.

Downstream of the digging trough, broad mid-level ridging will be
maintained across the eastern Great Basin into the central Great
Plains.  However, mid-level troughing within a branch of westerlies
emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forecast to
progress across Baja, northwestern Mexico and adjacent portions of
the Southwest, preceded by a more subtle perturbation or two across
the southern Rockies and southwestern Texas.

Downstream, flow remains broadly confluent, but models indicate that
the most pronounced confluence will begin to shift east of the
Atlantic Seaboard.  As this occurs, the center of expansive surface
ridging is forecast to  continue to slowly weaken while shifting
east of the Mississippi Valley, into the vicinity of the
Appalachians by late tonight.  However, potentially cold/dry air
associated with this feature will continue to spread southeast of
the northern/eastern Gulf of Mexico, and through much of the
remainder of the Florida peninsula by the end of the period.

In response to the evolving upstream mid/upper flow, surface
troughing is forecast to deepen to the immediate lee of the southern
Rockies through tonight.  Various model output suggests that
strongest pressure falls may become focused either side of the Raton
Mesa vicinity, where a low may develop by late tonight.  In response
to associated strengthening southerly low-level flow across the
southern high plains, seasonably modest moisture return is expected
to continue to gradually develop northward from the lower Rio Grande
Valley.  This may include surface dew point increases into the
mid/upper 50s as far north as the western Kansas vicinity by late
this afternoon.

Beneath steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates associated with
elevated mixed-layer air advecting east of the southern Rockies, the
moisture return probably will become sufficient to contribute to
thermodynamic profiles supportive thunderstorms capable of producing
large hail and strong surface gusts.

...Southern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains...
A combination of moistening upslope flow, broad low-level
convergence and low/mid-level warm advection appear likely to focus
the most widespread thunderstorm development from the Front Range
vicinity into the adjacent central Great Plains late this afternoon
into tonight.

This may be aided by a number of smaller-scale perturbations
progressing around the broad mid-level ridging.  A couple of fairly 
prominent impulses are already progressing east of the middle
Missouri Valley, with another couple shifting east of the northern
Rockies/Front Range.  In response to these developments, there may
be some southward shift of the leading (northeastern) edge of the
plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the southern
Rockies/Plateau region.  A developing zone of stronger differential
surface heating beneath this feature may provide one, if not the
primary, focus for upscale growing convection by this evening, from
parts of northeastern Colorado into northwest and west central
Kansas.

Despite the seasonably modest, though improving, low-level moisture
return, the steep lapse rates may support mixed-layer CAPE on the
order of 1000-1500 J/kg by late afternoon.  Aided by favorable
vertical shear beneath 30-40+ kt northwesterly flow around 500 mb,
the environment probably will become conducive to widely scattered
to scattered storms capable of producing severe hail and locally
strong surface gusts.  Congealing surface cold pools may contribute
to upscale growing, southeastward propagating storm clusters, with
strong wind gusts becoming the primary hazard before diminishing
around mid evening with the loss of daytime heating.

..Kerr/Lyons.. 05/14/2021

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