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Current conditions from King Hill
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  Friday June 12, 2026

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 323

WW 323 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 122240Z - 130600Z
      
WW 0323 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
540 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Colorado
  Southwest and South-Central Kansas
  Northeast New Mexico
  Northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma Panhandle
  The Northern Texas Panhandle

* Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 540
  PM until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 80 mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Initial supercells should pose some threat for large hail
generally 1-2 inches in diameter late this afternoon, before an
increasing threat for scattered severe/damaging winds develops this
evening when a bowing cluster forms. This activity will likely
spread eastward across the south-central Plains through early
Saturday morning, with peak gusts potentially reaching up to 70-80
mph.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south
southwest of Trinidad CO to 30 miles north of Alva OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...WW 322...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

...Gleason

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322

WW 322 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NJ NY PA CW 121905Z - 130100Z
      
WW 0322 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
305 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southwest Connecticut
  Extreme western Massachusetts
  Northern New Jersey
  Southeast New York
  Northeast Pennsylvania
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage this
afternoon/evening while spreading east-southeastward across
northeast Pennsylvania, southeast New York and northern New Jersey,
including New York City and vicinity.  The primary threat will be
wind damage with thunderstorm gusts up to 60-70 mph, though the
strongest storms may also produce isolated large hail close to 1
inch in diameter.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast
of Monticello NY to 20 miles south southwest of Newark NJ. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29025.

...Thompson

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321

WW 321 SEVERE TSTM DC MD VA WV CW 121845Z - 130100Z
      
WW 0321 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 321
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  District Of Columbia
  Maryland
  Virginia
  Eastern West Virginia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will form in Virginia and Maryland this
afternoon, and will spread eastward from West Virginia.  The storm
environment will favor damaging downbursts with winds up to 60-70
mph, while the strongest storms could produce isolated large hail
near 1 inch in diameter.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of
Washington DC to 30 miles south southeast of Dublin VA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29020.

...Thompson

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 323 Status Reports

WW 0323 Status Updates
      
WW 0323 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0323 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322 Status Reports

WW 0322 Status Updates
      
WW 0322 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 322

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE TTN
TO 35 WNW EWR TO 30 SSW POU TO 15 SE POU TO 10 N PSF.

..CHALMERS..06/12/26

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 322 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

CTC001-005-009-122340-

CT 
.    CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FAIRFIELD            LITCHFIELD          NEW HAVEN           


MAC003-122340-

MA 
.    MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKSHIRE            


NJC003-013-017-023-025-027-031-035-039-122340-

NJ 
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERGEN               ESSEX               HUDSON              
MIDDLESEX            MONMOUTH            MORRIS              
PASSAIC              SOMERSET            UNION               

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321 Status Reports

WW 0321 Status Updates
      
WW 0321 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 321

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE TRI
TO 10 NE PSK TO 40 WSW SHD TO 35 NNE SHD TO 35 S MRB TO 25 ESE
MRB TO 25 W DOV.

..CHALMERS..06/12/26

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...AKQ...RLX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 321 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

DCC001-122340-

DC 
.    DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 


MDC003-009-017-031-033-037-122340-

MD 
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL         CALVERT             CHARLES             
MONTGOMERY           PRINCE GEORGES      ST. MARYS           


VAC003-007-009-011-013-015-019-021-023-029-031-033-035-037-041-
045-047-049-057-059-061-063-065-067-075-077-079-083-085-087-089-
097-099-101-103-107-109-113-119-121-125-127-133-137-139-141-143-
145-147-153-155-157-159-161-163-165-173-177-179-193-197-510-530-
540-590-600-610-630-640-660-678-680-683-685-690-750-760-770-775-
790-820-122340-

Read more

SPC MD 1112

MD 1112 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321... FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...INCLUDING WASHINGTON D.C.
MD 1112 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic...including Washington
D.C.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321...

Valid 122319Z - 130045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321
continues.

SUMMARY...A gradual decrease in convective intensity and coverage is
expected through the next 1-2 hours. Some potential for occasional
damaging wind gusts will continue in the meantime.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to depicts scattered
thunderstorms across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321, with a downburst
recently producing a measured 58 kt (67 mph) wind gust at Dulles
airport. Downstream surface observations across southeastern
Virginia indicate surface temperatures are beginning to cool, with a
dissipation of boundary layer cumulus also noted on visible
satellite. As nocturnal cooling/stabilization continues, a gradual
decrease in convective coverage and intensity is expected over the
next 1-2 hours. Some potential for occasional damaging wind gusts
will persist in the near-term, however, with the greatest potential
likely to accompany any stronger downbursts. A local watch extension
may be needed, particularly in southeastern Virginia, should a
stronger storm or two persist after 01z, but a new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is not anticipated.

..Chalmers.. 06/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   39097751 39107734 39057713 38977694 38847685 38057647
            37827637 37657636 37507649 37437665 37247718 37077803
            37017864 37077920 37147947 37467943 37777916 38337849
            38507824 38987766 39097751 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

Read more

SPC MD 1111

MD 1111 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR WESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
MD 1111 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0539 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...Far Western Texas into Southeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 122239Z - 130045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intermittently reach severe criteria
before diminishing into the evening as the boundary layer
stabilizes. Isolated occurrences of hail and damaging wind gusts are
possible, though no watch is expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms have developed
across far West Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, with MUCAPE
exceeding 2000-3000 J/kg across much of the area. However, a dearth
of deep-layer shear will continue to limit overall storm
organization and severe potential. Isolated occurrences of hail and
damaging winds are still possible, but the pulse nature of the
convection and expectation to decrease in intensity as the boundary
layer stabilizes precludes any watch issuance at this time.

..Halbert/Gleason.. 06/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   29360379 30640419 32000510 32290589 32630627 33110625
            33360557 33290468 32580369 31790287 31300249 30890225
            30110227 29790262 29530287 29390312 29330340 29360379 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Read more

SPC MD 1110

MD 1110 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
MD 1110 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...South-Central High Plains into the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 122210Z - 130015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is likely be issued soon in
anticipation of upscale convective growth with storms currently
moving off the higher terrain and into the south-central plains.
Hail and damaging straight line winds up to 80 MPH will be the
primary threat.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms in northeastern New
Mexico is expected to move eastward off the higher terrain and into
the high plains over the next few hours, where buoyancy and shear
increase with longitudinal extent. Short term forecast guidance and
current mesoanalysis trends suggests this cluster of convection will
grow upscale into a linear convective system with one or more
embedded bowing line segments. Steep lapse rates from strong diurnal
heating, rich moisture content in the boundary layer, and an
intensifying nocturnal low-level jet will support primarily a
damaging wind threat, particularly along the leading edge of
convection and with any bowing line segments. A severe thunderstorm
watch is likely to be issued soon.

..Halbert/Gleason.. 06/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37340444 37700374 37860247 37870152 37870053 37870012
            37759988 37449970 36599963 36259971 35879971 35469986
            35400017 35350129 35290267 35350361 35380428 35570461
            35960472 36370477 36820479 36960475 37340444 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Read more

SPC Jun 12, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected
across parts of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of
large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible across parts
of the south-central High Plains.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with minimal changes required
to the existing probability lines based on ongoing convective trends
and recent model guidance. The primary outlook amendment was the
introduction of 5% hail probabilities across portions of eastern
Nebraska. 

...Nebraska...
12z ensemble guidance hinted at thunderstorm development across
eastern NE during the 09-12 UTC period as a weak low-level cold
front impinges on a plume of northward returning moisture. More
recent runs of the RAP/RRFS/HRRR continue to show this potential and
depict a fairly robust thermodynamic environment featuring MUCAPE
values upwards of 4000 J/kg. 18 UTC RAOBS from the southern High
Plains and Rockies sampled steep mid-level lapse rates that will
advect eastward over the next 18 hours, and recent model solutions
appear to be capturing surface moisture return well. These trends
lend sufficient confidence to introduce a targeted hail risk area.

...Mississippi/Alabama...
5% wind probabilities were removed across northern MS/AL based on
recent radar trends, which depict the outflow boundary of a decaying
MCS rapidly progressing south and undercutting developing
convection. Strong buoyancy immediately downstream may support some
localized damaging wind threat through the afternoon, but latest
model guidance largely shows diminishing convective activity as the
outflow surges south.

..Moore.. 06/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026/

...Mid-Atlantic into New England this afternoon/evening...
Within the northern stream, a shortwave trough will progress
east-northeastward over the lower Great Lakes this
afternoon/evening, while an associated surface cold front moves
eastward into New England and southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. 
Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong and the stronger
midlevel flow/deep-layer vertical shear will remain displaced to the
cool side of the front.  Still, 25-30 kt midlevel flow will overlap
the warm sector this afternoon from northern Chesapeake Bay
northward into eastern NY.  Strong surface heating is ongoing from
the Piedmont into VA/southern PA, with a few more cloud patches from
northeast PA into central NY.  The net result will be moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) in an environment with steep
low-level lapse rates and weak upper flow, favoring multicell
clusters with occasional wind damage.  The weak forcing for ascent
suggests that widely scattered, loosely organized clusters will be
possible this afternoon, with some gaps in the wind threat.

...Southern High Plains late this afternoon into early tonight...
Lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO will draw low-level moisture
northwestward into the southern High Plains as a stalled front
begins to lift northward across the TX Panhandle.  Thunderstorm
development is expected this afternoon/evening with upslope flow
into the higher terrain of NM, and along the Raton Mesa.  Deep-layer
vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for supercells
initially off Raton Mesa, with large hail the primary threat.  Some
upscale growth and an increase in the potential for severe outflow
gusts is expected late this evening as storms spread eastward toward
southwest KS and the northern Panhandles in association with a
nocturnal low-level jet and strengthened warm advection/moisture
transport.

...Eastern KS/western MO early Saturday...
In response to low-level warm advection and returning moisture,
elevated convection is probable late in the period across eastern
KS/western MO.  This area will be near the east edge of the steep
midlevel lapse rates, where isolated large hail will be possible. 
There will also be some potential for evolution into a cluster or
two with isolated damaging gusts.  Farther north into eastern NE
(very near the end of the period) there will be a chance for
elevated storms with some hail.  This area will be re-evaluated this
afternoon in the 20z update.

Read more

SPC Jun 12, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the lower Great Lakes and
upper Ohio Valley vicinity through much of the northern Mid Atlantic
Sunday.

...Discussion...
Downstream of initially amplified mid-level ridging offshore of the
Pacific coast, models indicate that flow will continue to trend
cyclonic east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, to the
south of a broadening vortex centered near southern Hudson Bay. 
Within this regime, it appears that notable short wave troughing
will pivot east of the Upper Midwest through the southeastern
Canadian provinces and Northeast by late Sunday night, accompanied
by cyclogenesis across the lower Great Lakes through St. Lawrence
Valley vicinity.  It appears that this may be preceded by the
remnants of an initially fairly notable mesoscale convective vortex,
within strengthening westerly flow across the Allegheny/Cumberland
Plateau through the northern Mid Atlantic by early Sunday evening.

...Northeast...
There remains considerable spread within the latest model output
concerning the extent of convective potential for this period. 
Mostly this appears related pre-frontal low-level moisture return
and destabilization across the upper Ohio Valley into the lee of the
lower Great Lakes, which could be slowed or impeded by the influence
of preceding convective outflow.  However, guidance generally
suggests that destabilization prior to the arrival of the MCV and
belt of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields (30-40+ kt) will
be sufficient to support potential for organized severe convection
east of the Allegheny Mountains through the northern Mid Atlantic by
late Sunday afternoon.  More substantive strengthening of mid-level
wind fields and forcing for ascent appear likely to overspread the
pre-frontal environment across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into
the lee of the lower Great Lakes region, where it appears increasing
model output is now suggesting that the evolving warm sector may
become sufficiently unstable to support a risk for organized severe
storm development.

Damaging wind gusts accompanying organizing lines and/or clusters
appear the primary severe hazard, but there also appears at least
some potential for a few tornadoes.  It is still possible that
severe weather probabilities will need to be increased further in
later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 06/12/2026

Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...Afternoon Update...
The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area was expanded southeastward
to include more of the Colorado Plateau within northwestern NM and
northeastern AZ. Southwest to westerly flow aloft will aid in
ushering mid-level moisture into portions of the Desert Southwest
and CO Plateau on Saturday afternoon. With deeper moisture and
higher PWATs (0.8-1.5") across southern AZ and NM, chances for more
appreciable rainfall with any thunderstorms will exist over these
areas. Forecast soundings across the CO Plateau depict much lower
PWATs (0.5-0.8") and a deep, dry boundary layer amid sufficient
daytime instability and fast storm motions, promoting isolated dry
thunderstorm development. Lightning ignitions will be a concern
given very dry fuels, and gusty/erratic outflow winds may exacerbate
any new and ongoing fires across the region.

Over the CO Rockies, westerly flow aloft will allow dry and breezy
conditions to persist over the higher terrain. Locally elevated fire
concerns will emerge where RH of 15-20% and 10-20 mph winds overlap
dry fuels, especially within gap-flow and terrain favored areas.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026/

...Synopsis...
Along the northern periphery of an upper ridge extending from Mexico
into the Southwest, a subtle midlevel impulse will advance eastward
across the southern Great Basin and central Rockies during the day.
As this feature and related ascent glance the northern periphery of
a midlevel moisture plume, isolated to widely scattered high-based
thunderstorms will form across the southern/eastern Great Basin into
the central Rockies during the afternoon -- with a focus over the
higher terrain features. Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath the
midlevel moisture will yield inverted-V soundings, favorable for
mostly dry thunderstorms capable of strong/erratic wind gusts. Given
critically dry fuels across the region (90th-95th percentile ERCs),
lighting-induced ignitions will be a concern.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing will remain anchored over the southern
Ontario/Quebec regions on Day 3/Sunday as an upper-level ridge
continues to build over the West Coast. Simultaneously, a shortwave
trough is forecast to dig southward around the base of the
persistent Canadian trough, tracking across the northern Rockies.
The upper ridge is expected to break down mid-week as an upper jet
max strengthens and progresses ahead of an incoming northern Pacific
trough. This secondary trough is projected to move onshore into the
Pacific Northwest by Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday, subsequently shifting
the axis of the ridge eastward over the Great Plains.

...Day 3/Sunday - Portions of the Southwest...
An upper-level ridge will remain across the western CONUS as a
shortwave trough traverses the High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. A plume
of mid-level moisture advecting northward from the Baja Peninsula on
Day 2/Saturday will persist across the Southwest, promoting
continued convective potential. Given dry antecedent fuel conditions
resulting from consecutive days of hot, dry, and breezy weather, dry
thunderstorms will pose an ignition concern across southeastern NV
into the Colorado Plateau where a 10% probability of dry
thunderstorms has been introduced. Further spatial modifications to
this risk area remain likely in upcoming outlook cycles as
additional forecast guidance becomes available.

...Day 5-6/Tuesday-Wednesday - Parts of the Intermountain West...
The eventual breakdown of the western ridge is expected to escalate
fire weather concerns across the Intermountain West as the jet
strengthens and gives way to another trough later next week. At
least 2-3 days of well above normal surface temperatures will occur
under the established ridge early next week, with record high
temperatures forecast to be met or exceeded in portions of the
Pacific Northwest. This anomalous, but short-lived, heat wave is
expected to further dry dead fuels over much of the western CONUS -
significantly so over the Pacific Northwest. As the ridge dampens
and begins to slide eastward, robust northwesterly flow aloft should
foster breezy surface winds amid pre-existing very warm and dry
conditions. Thus, 40% Critical probabilities have been expanded from
the Great Basin to portions of the Central Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday
and Day 6/Wednesday.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Read more


 
 
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