RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 7 07:11:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 7 07:11:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of western
and central New Mexico.
...Western and Central New Mexico...
At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place today
from the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains. Heights
will gradually rise over the southern Rockies today, as a shortwave
ridge moves across the region. At the surface, upslope easterly
winds will be in place across much of New Mexico, with surface
dewpoints in the 40s and 50s F over much of southern and central New
Mexico. In west-central New Mexico, along the western edge of this
low-level moisture, a north-to-south axis of instability is forecast
to develop in the late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will form
within this corridor of instability, with a relatively small cluster
moving eastern into central New Mexico during the late afternoon and
early evening.
RAP forecast soundings in the late afternoon to the west of
Albuquerque have MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 40
knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast between 7 and 7.5 C/km
with 500 mb temperatures of -10 to -11C. This should be favorable
for hail with the stronger rotating cells that develop near the
instability axis. Steep lapse rates in the boundary layer may also
support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. However, the
rising mid-level heights will be a limiting factor, and for that
reason any severe threat is expected to remain marginal.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/07/2025
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper ridge will remain centered on the Plains on
Wednesday. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic will continue to lift northeast, moving offshore the
Atlantic coast by the end of the period. A surface cold front will
be oriented from coastal New England toward the southern
Appalachians and the central Gulf Coast Wednesday morning. As the
front continues to develop offshore into the Atlantic and Gulf,
strong high pressure will build over the Great Lakes/Midwest.
Easterly low-level flow will transport modest moisture westward
across the Rio Grade and into portions of NM/AZ on the western
periphery of the strengthening surface high.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of AZ/NM
where modest boundary layer moisture beneath midlevel lapse rates
near 7 C/km supports weak destabilization. Vertical shear will be
weak, and convection will be relatively shallow, given high bases
and low tops. While some locally gusty winds could occur, severe
potential is low. Additional thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Southeast into the southern Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front.
Instability will be limited by poor lapse rates and cloud cover.
Vertical shear will also weaken through the day as the upper trough
continues to lift further from these regions. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected.
..Leitman.. 10/07/2025
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist over the Plains on Thursday. A weak
shortwave impulse will move through the top of the ridge toward the
Upper Great Lakes while another shortwave trough approaches the
northern Plains by the end of the period. A large upper cyclone is
forecast to remain offshore the Pacific Northwest coast while
Hurricane Priscilla parallels the Baja coast.
Strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will result in a
mostly dry and stable airmass across the Midwest. While some modest
moisture will return northward across the Plains on the western
periphery of the surface high and ahead of the northern Plains upper
shortwave trough, boundary layer moisture will remain meager across
the Plains, precluding thunderstorm activity. Isolated storms are
possible across parts of the Southeast where lingering moisture will
be in place behind a prior cold frontal passage, but severe storms
are not expected. Additional storms are possible across parts of the
Southwest where low-level south/southeasterly flow will transport
modest boundary layer moisture across the region. Poor lapse rates
will limit instability to less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE and severe
storms are unlikely.
..Leitman.. 10/07/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will progress
across the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds over the central
U.S., with surface high pressure becoming established over the Great
Lakes today. While dry conditions have been prevalent over the
Midwest toward the Northeast in the past two weeks, appreciable
rainfall is on the way for several locales over the next day or so,
which should limit significant wildfire-growth potential. Across the
rest of the CONUS, fire-weather spread conditions should generally
remain limited due to either rainfall, moist low-level conditions,
or the lack of either a stronger surface wind field or fuels
receptive to fire spread.
..Squitieri.. 10/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will dominate much of the central U.S. as a mid-level
trough ejects into the Atlantic and another trough amplifies over
the Interior West tomorrow (Wednesday). Surface high pressure will
overspread the CONUS east of the Mississippi River while surface lee
troughing develops over the northern Plains, and a surface low
strengthens over the Pacific Northwest. Dry and occasionally breezy
conditions may develop over the Interior West, though fuels that are
poorly receptive to wildfire spread will limit wildfire-growth
potential. Across the northern Plains, the lack of lower RH will
limit wildfire-spread potential in this area as well. As such,
overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over the
CONUS for Wednesday.
..Squitieri.. 10/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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