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  Sunday May 26, 2024

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SPC Tornado Watch 315

WW 315 TORNADO IN KY TN 261355Z - 262000Z
      
WW 0315 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 315
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
855 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southern Indiana
  Western and Central Kentucky
  Western and Middle Tennessee

* Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 855 AM until
  300 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter likely

SUMMARY...A bowing complex of severe thunderstorms will continue
moving rapidly east, with widespread damaging winds likely.  Some
gusts may exceed 75 mph. A few tornadoes are also possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
north and south of a line from 10 miles northwest of Fort Campbell
KY to 40 miles south southeast of London KY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 314...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27045.

...Bunting

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SPC Tornado Watch 315 Status Reports

WW 0315 Status Updates
      
WW 0315 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0315 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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SPC Tornado Watch 314 Status Reports

WW 0314 Status Updates
      
WW 0314 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 314

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DYR TO
40 S PAH TO 10 S PAH TO 10 SSW PAH TO 15 WSW PAH TO 20 NNE POF.

..JEWELL..05/26/24

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...LSX...SGF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 314 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-261440-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDER            EDWARDS             FRANKLIN            
GALLATIN             HAMILTON            HARDIN              
JACKSON              JEFFERSON           JOHNSON             
MASSAC               PERRY               POPE                
PULASKI              SALINE              UNION               
WABASH               WAYNE               WHITE               
WILLIAMSON           


KYC007-035-039-055-083-105-139-143-145-157-261440-

KY 
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALLARD              CALLOWAY            CARLISLE            
CRITTENDEN           GRAVES              HICKMAN             
LIVINGSTON           LYON                MCCRACKEN           
MARSHALL             

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313 Status Reports

WW 0313 Status Updates
      
WW 0313 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 313

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW SJT TO
5 E SJT TO 30 WSW BWD.

..GOSS..05/26/24

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 313 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC049-095-105-413-451-261040-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROWN                CONCHO              CROCKETT            
SCHLEICHER           TOM GREEN           


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 26 14:45:08 UTC 2024.

SPC May 26, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EASTERN OZARKS TO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and
nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with
threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail.

...Synopsis...
A progressive mid/upper-level pattern is apparent across the CONUS,
perturbed mainly by a synoptic-scale trough initially over the
central High Plains, and related cyclonic flow and embedded
vorticity maxima/shortwaves over the Central States.  The trough
should shift eastward to WI, eastern IA, northern MO and central OK
by 00Z, then over the Upper Great Lakes, Lower MI, and the lower
Ohio Valley by 12Z tomorrow.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary synoptic low over
southwestern IA, with warm front across western IL behind convective
outflow, and ahead of the outflow from central IL across southern IN
to northeastern KY.  The warm front should move slowly northward
across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon.  The cold front was
drawn from the IA low southwestward to another low between ICT-PNC,
then across western OK and northwest TX.  This front will overtake a
dryline today over northwest/west-central TX.  By 00Z, the cold
front should extend from a triple-point low near MSN across central
IL, southern MO, southeastern OK, and north-central/central TX.  By
12Z, the cold front should reach eastern IN, central KY, and western
TN, becoming quasistationary southwestward over the Arklatex to
central TX.  The cold front will be preceded by an MCS outflow
boundary over parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region today.

...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central
Appalachians...

A complex, multi-episode severe scenario is apparent, still bearing
some important mesoscale uncertainties.  However, probabilities
supporting an "enhanced" category appear solidly warranted over most
of the original area that has not been too convectively processed,
and mesoscale foci may yield denser swaths of severe (wind in
particular) within that remaining broad corridor.

An ongoing severe MCS, with embedded supercells and bowing segments
and a history of several overnight tornadoes in the Ozarks, will
continue to pose a threat for all severe hazards (including
tornadoes) for at least the next several hours past midday.  This
threat should persist as activity exits the Ozarks, crosses the
adjoining Mississippi Valley, and moves into parts of the lower Ohio
Valley vicinity.  Some northward expansion toward/past the warm
front is possible over the Ohio Valley.  This activity should only
gradually outpace the most favorable buoyancy as it approaches the
Appalachians, and may still have a severe threat across the higher
terrain.  Confidence in its persistence is heightened by the
presence of at least one MCV over the eastern Ozarks, which should
enhance ascent and lower/middle-tropospheric vertical wind
profiles/shear on the mesoscale.  Organization of these
thunderstorms should continue to take advantage of forced lift with
cold pools, as well as lift from internal rotational dynamics of
supercells and bookend vortices, to overcome modest MLCINH this
morning through midday.  Inflow air will contain rich low-level
moisture (surface dewpoints commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s F,
locally higher), and will be diurnally destabilizing from heating
and warm advection near and south of the warm front.  For near-term
guidance, see SPC Tornado Watch 314 and related mesoscale
discussions.

Details of subsequent round(s) of convection still remain to be
resolved, based substantially on the character and extent of
poleward return of the outflow boundary from the leading activity. 
As such, further modifications (some substantial) may be needed to
especially western parts of the outlook areas today.  One zone of
relatively maximized deep ascent appears to be associated with
passage of the convectively reinforced prefrontal boundary over
parts of MO and southeastern KS, initially penetrating outflow air
from the leading activity.  This regime should continue to benefit
from large-scale DCVA/ascent aloft, related to the shortwave trough
and closely associated convectively induced/enhanced vorticity
fields.  Activity interacting with the outflow boundary's theta-e
gradient, backed near-surface winds, and maximized mesoscale
vorticity in low levels should pose the greatest potential for
tornadoes.  However the afternoon/evening tornado risk is not yet
focused tightly, due to uncertainties regarding the evolution of a
boundary still being produced at this time.

The general large-scale ascent, along with direct frontal lift and
heating of a very moist airmass in the warm sector, also should
support at least isolated to widely scattered, near-frontal
convective development farther south across parts of AR and eastern
OK, southwest of the outflow boundary.  This activity, including
supercells, should occur in an environment of stronger EML-related
MLCINH for much of the day, but also, steep midlevel lapse rates,
optimal moisture (surface dewpoints commonly low-mid 70s F), and
weakening capping with time this afternoon.  Despite some veering of
near-surface winds, which may limit convergence, any activity that
develops still will occur in an environment of 50-65-kt effective-
shear magnitudes, and peak local MLCAPE commonly in the 3500-4500
J/kg range.  Forecast hodographs and 2D hail models suggest very
large hail of 3+ inches in diameter may occur with any sustained,
relatively discrete storm this afternoon into early evening. 
Additional development is possible farther east in the warm sector,
near and east of the Mississippi River and south of the MCS outflow,
off the eastern rim of the EML where MLCINH is weaker but moisture
and heating are strong.

..Edwards/Goss.. 05/26/2024

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