RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 21 06:17:02 UTC 2024.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Nov 21 06:17:02 UTC 2024.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible across southern New England
Thursday morning.
...Southern New England...
Strong upper low will shift southeast from the Great Lakes into the
upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. This evolution will encourage
low-level warm advection across southern New England as a surface
low repositions itself off the middle Atlantic coast, south of Long
Island. Forecast soundings suggest weak elevated buoyancy will
develop north of this boundary as mid-level lapse rates will steepen
as 500mb temperatures cool in advance of the approaching trough.
Strongest elevated updrafts may exceed levels necessary for
lightning discharge, but this should mainly be prior to 18z.
Thereafter, deepest convection will focus offshore.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/21/2024
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific Northwest Coast
on Friday.
...Synopsis...
A large, deep upper low will exist over the northeast Friday
morning, and will gradually weaken as it drifts east through the
period. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will slowly shift east from the
Rockies into the Plains, while yet another trough pushes across the
Pacific Northwest region late.
Substantial northwest surface winds will maintain relatively stable
conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, with no instability
forecast over much of the CONUS.
The exception will be again along the coastal counties of WA and OR,
as strong cooling aloft occurs. Scattered low-topped convection will
be most likely over the ocean overnight. A few thunderstorms may
move onshore, but at this time the stronger shear farther north does
not appear to overlap with the minimal instability required for a
severe threat.
..Jewell.. 11/21/2024
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
With a strong upper low over the lower Great Lakes region, strong
flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast into Florida. A
deepening low east of the DelMarVa will promote enhanced surface
wind behind the cold front. With minimal precipitation falling over
North Florida, where fuels are quite dry for this time of year, a
period of elevated fire weather is expected. Winds of 10-15 mph and
RH perhaps near 20% in some spots can be expected by the afternoon.
The boundary layer should also deepen sufficiently to support gusts
of up to 20 mph.
..Wendt.. 11/21/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A similar upper-level pattern to Thursday will again be present on
Friday. The strong upper low will continue east and a complex
surface low evolution will occur off the Mid-Atlantic/New England
coast. Fire weather conditions are expected to be minimal for most
areas. Northern into central Florida will again be dry. Temperature
will be a bit cooler and RH will be a bit higher. Boundary layer
mixing will also be less than Thursday, tempering gust potential.
With the strongest winds/lowest RH expected over less receptive
fuels, highlights will be withheld. Locally elevated conditions can
be expected.
..Wendt.. 11/21/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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