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Tropical Cyclone Activity
Tropical Sea Temperatures

Current Atlantic Satellite Image
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of America
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
ABNT20 KNHC 142338 TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo, located over the central tropical Atlantic.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Kelly]]>
Tropical Storm Tropical
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorenzo (AT2/AL122025)
...LORENZO HOLDING ON... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 14 the center of Lorenzo was located near 19.6, -45.6 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Lorenzo
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025 000
WTNT32 KNHC 150230
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025
...LORENZO HOLDING ON...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 45.6W
ABOUT 1440 MI...2320 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 45.6 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to
the north is expected overnight, followed by a northeastward motion
Wednesday and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast and Lorenzo is forecast to
dissipate in a couple days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Kelly]]>
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 15 2025 000
WTNT22 KNHC 150230
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
0300 UTC WED OCT 15 2025
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 45.6W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 45.6W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 45.6W
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 21.3N 44.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.0N 42.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.9N 38.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 45.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KELLY]]>
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025 000
WTNT42 KNHC 150231
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025
Lorenzo continues to struggle this evening, with convective
organization. However, satellite images depict that there has been
a recent burst of convection near the center of the system, although
these bursts have been intermittent throughout the day. Subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt.
Given the convection has only just recently returned over the
center, the initial intensity will be held at 35 kt for this
advisory.
The storm is moving north-northwestward at an estimated motion of
345/10 kt. A turn to the north is expected overnight as the system
rounds the western edge of a subtropical ridge, followed by an
accelerated northeastward motion throughout the rest of the forecast
period as the system becomes engulfed in the flow of an approaching
trough from the west. The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous, just a little faster and lies between the simple and
corrected consensus aids.
The drier air and wind shear have continued to take their toll on
Lorenzo, with convection remaining disorganized. As Lorenzo begins
to accelerate the system is anticipated to struggle to produce
organized convection and maintain a closed circulation, eventually
opening into a trough. The latest NHC intensity forecast moved up
dissipation to 48 h, although most global models show Lorenzo
opening into a trough and dissipating even sooner.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 19.6N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 21.3N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 24.0N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 26.9N 38.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kelly]]>
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 15 2025 000
FONT12 KNHC 150231
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
0300 UTC WED OCT 15 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER KELLY]]>
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Oct 2025 02:32:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Oct 2025 03:22:14 GMT
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