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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

ABNT20 KNHC 021718
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda, located east-northeast of Bermuda. 

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure may form along a remnant frontal boundary 
near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida during the next 
day or two. Any additional development is expected to be slow to 
occur as the system moves northwestward across the Florida Peninsula 
and into the Gulf of America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the 
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with 
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow 
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart]]>

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda (AT4/AL092025)

...IMELDA BECOMES A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 02 the center of Imelda was located near 33.2, -59.5 with movement ENE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Public Advisory Number 24

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025 203 
WTNT34 KNHC 021446
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092025
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025
 
...IMELDA BECOMES A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 59.5W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
None.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone 
Imelda was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 59.5 West. 
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 
29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue 
through tonight. A northeastward motion is then forecast on Friday 
and Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, but 
the post-tropical cyclone will remain a large and powerful system 
as it moves across the central Atlantic.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the 
center, and gale-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 
km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.
 
WIND: Gusty winds on Bermuda are expected to gradually subside
today.
 
SURF: Distant swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and much of the U.S. East Coast. Swells from Imelda will
spread toward the Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands on
Friday and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane 
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

]]>

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Forecast Advisory Number 24

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 02 2025 000
WTNT24 KNHC 021446
TCMAT4
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092025
1500 UTC THU OCT 02 2025
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N  59.5W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  75 DEGREES AT  25 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE   0SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT.......  0NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT.......120NE 240SE 180SW 270NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 330SE 420SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N  59.5W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N  60.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.3N  55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE   0SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 170SW 270NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.3N  51.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 200SW 270NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.9N  49.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 210SW 250NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 41.7N  47.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 220SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 44.6N  44.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 210SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 47.1N  40.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 200SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 50.0N  30.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE 100SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N  59.5W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE 
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Forecast Discussion Number 24

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025 000
WTNT44 KNHC 021448
TCDAT4
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092025
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025
 
Imelda is no longer a tropical cyclone. Visible satellite images and 
global model fields indicate that a front extends into the center of 
the cyclone from the east-northeast, while another frontal feature 
has developed to the south of the cyclone. This is consistent with 
overnight microwave data that showed Imelda taking the appearance of 
an occluded cyclone, as well as recent satellite trends that show 
the remaining convection is mainly focused along these fronts. 
Therefore, Imelda is classified as a 65-kt extratropical cyclone 
this morning, and this will be the final NHC advisory on the system.

Post-tropical Imelda is racing toward the east-northeast (075/25 
kt) away from Bermuda. The cyclone is expected to turn northeastward 
on Friday ahead of an amplifying upper-level trough over the 
northern Atlantic, then turn back toward the east-northeast by 
Sunday within the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in 
much better agreement than yesterday, and the NHC forecast lies near 
the center of the envelope between the HCCA and TVCA aids.

Baroclinic forcing from the upper trough will likely cause the 
cyclone to remain a large, storm-force low through the weekend. Even 
though the peak winds are forecast to gradually diminish, a large 
area of 34- and 50-kt winds will create hazardous marine conditions 
and large swell that will continue to affect an expansive portion of 
the western and central Atlantic.

Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by 
the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO 
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Gusty winds over Bermuda will gradually subside today.
 
2. Swells and high surf from Imelda are expected to produce
dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East
Coast of the United States and the western Atlantic during the next
several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 33.2N  59.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  03/0000Z 34.3N  55.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  03/1200Z 36.3N  51.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  04/0000Z 38.9N  49.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  04/1200Z 41.7N  47.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  05/0000Z 44.6N  44.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  05/1200Z 47.1N  40.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  06/1200Z 50.0N  30.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

]]>

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 02 2025 000
FONT14 KNHC 021446
PWSAT4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092025               
1500 UTC THU OCT 02 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 02 Oct 2025 14:50:10 GMT




 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 02 Oct 2025 15:22:24 GMT
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