ABNT20 KNHC 142338
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Lorenzo, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Lorenzo (AT2/AL122025)
  ...LORENZO HOLDING ON... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 14 the center of Lorenzo was located near 19.6, -45.6 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo

• Tropical Storm Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 8
  Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150230 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025 ...LORENZO HOLDING ON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 45.6W ABOUT 1440 MI...2320 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 45.6 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the north is expected overnight, followed by a northeastward motion Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast and Lorenzo is forecast to dissipate in a couple days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly]]>
• Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 8
  Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 15 2025 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150230 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025 0300 UTC WED OCT 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 45.6W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 90SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 45.6W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 45.6W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 21.3N 44.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.0N 42.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.9N 38.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 45.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY]]>
• Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 8
  Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150231 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025 Lorenzo continues to struggle this evening, with convective organization. However, satellite images depict that there has been a recent burst of convection near the center of the system, although these bursts have been intermittent throughout the day. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt. Given the convection has only just recently returned over the center, the initial intensity will be held at 35 kt for this advisory. The storm is moving north-northwestward at an estimated motion of 345/10 kt. A turn to the north is expected overnight as the system rounds the western edge of a subtropical ridge, followed by an accelerated northeastward motion throughout the rest of the forecast period as the system becomes engulfed in the flow of an approaching trough from the west. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous, just a little faster and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. The drier air and wind shear have continued to take their toll on Lorenzo, with convection remaining disorganized. As Lorenzo begins to accelerate the system is anticipated to struggle to produce organized convection and maintain a closed circulation, eventually opening into a trough. The latest NHC intensity forecast moved up dissipation to 48 h, although most global models show Lorenzo opening into a trough and dissipating even sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.6N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 21.3N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 24.0N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 26.9N 38.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly]]>
• Tropical Storm Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
  Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 15 2025 000 FONT12 KNHC 150231 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025 0300 UTC WED OCT 15 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY]]>
• Tropical Storm Lorenzo Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Oct 2025 02:32:33 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Oct 2025 03:22:14 GMT ]]>