000

ABNT20 KNHC 252319

TWOAT 



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 

Storm Philippe, located over the central tropical Atlantic.



Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a 

tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the 

Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 

conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is 

expected to form in 2-3 days as the system moves west-northwestward 

across the central tropical Atlantic. 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



$$

Forecaster Papin/Blake

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Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)
  ...PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST SHEAR BUT SATELLITE WIND DATA SHOWS HIGHER WINDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 25 the center of Philippe was located near 17.6, -47.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Philippe

• Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 11
  Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023 000 WTNT32 KNHC 260243 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023 ...PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST SHEAR BUT SATELLITE WIND DATA SHOWS HIGHER WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 47.8W ABOUT 1005 MI...1620 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 47.8 West. Philippe is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin ]]>
• Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 11
  Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 26 2023 000 WTNT22 KNHC 260241 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 0300 UTC TUE SEP 26 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 47.8W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 150SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 47.8W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 47.3W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 49.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.8N 51.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.8N 53.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.8N 54.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 57.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 59.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.0N 61.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 47.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN ]]>
• Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 11
  Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023 957 WTNT42 KNHC 260248 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023 There have not been many changes to the appearance of Philippe tonight. The low-level circulation continues to be primarily exposed to the west of a rather misshapen area of deep convection. While there are a few convective cells that have attempted to redevelop closer to the circulation center, the storm remains disrupted by 20-30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. While subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates continue to gradually decrease, earlier GOES-16 1-minute meso sector low-level derived motion winds north of Philippe were in the 50-60 kt range, which typically would support somewhat higher winds. In addition, a recently arriving ASCAT-C pass caught the eastern side of the circulation, revealing peak winds in the 40-45 kt range. Therefore, the initial intensity is adjusted to 45 kt for this advisory. Despite the slightly higher initial intensity, Philippe's future prospects appear increasingly dim (as a tropical cyclone), as the current shear affecting the system is not expected to abate. In fact, this shear may increase further after 48 hours. Because the storm will still continue to traverse warm 29-30C sea-surface temperatures, the storm is likely to continue generating convective bursts east of the center for the majority of the forecast period. However, it appears increasingly likely the shear will not be able to be overcome, and the updated NHC intensity forecast now shows the storm on a slow decline, ending with it becoming a remnant low sometime in the day 4-5 time frame. This forecast is in good agreement with the consensus aids, with remnant low status occuring roughly when the ECMWF shows the system stopping to produce organized convection. Philippe appears to have resumed a more west-northwestward motion at 285/10 kt. Compared to 24 hours ago, the guidance has started to come into better agreement that the storm should maintain a general west-northwestward motion for the next 48-72 hours, not really feeling the mid-level weakness developing to its north as it gradually becomes more vertically shallow. The biggest change compared to the prior advisory is showing a turn more westward by the end of the forecast as the system becomes primarily steered by the more east-to-west oriented low-level ridging. This leftward adjustment to the track forecast is mainly in response to similar leftward shifts in both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance that have shifted to weaker solutions steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track lies roughly in between the reliable consensus aids (TVCN, HCCA) and the ECMWF and its ensemble mean, which remain on the south and west side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 17.6N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.0N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 18.8N 51.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 19.8N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 20.8N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 21.5N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 22.0N 57.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 22.0N 59.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 22.0N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin ]]>
• Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
  Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 26 2023 000 FONT12 KNHC 260244 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 0300 UTC TUE SEP 26 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN ]]>
• Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2023 02:44:24 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2023 02:44:24 GMT ]]>