ABNT20 KNHC 091737
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Jerry, located just southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

North Atlantic (AL96):
A gale-force non-tropical area of low pressure located about 500 
miles northwest of the Azores is producing some shower activity near 
its center. Some subtropical or tropical development of this system 
is possible over the next day or so before it moves over even cooler 
waters and into a stronger shear environment. For more information 
on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO 
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102025)
  ...JERRY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 09 the center of Jerry was located near 17.3, -60.6 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Jerry

• Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 10
  Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 000 WTNT35 KNHC 092035 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 ...JERRY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 60.6W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * St. Barthelemy and St. Martin * Sint Maarten * Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 60.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected by the evening, followed by a slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near the northern Leeward Islands this evening and tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tomorrow, but slow strengthening is possible over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), mainly east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area and are possible in the watch area tonight and Friday morning. RAINFALL: Through Friday, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service storm total rainfall graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles over the next couple of days, are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi]]>
• Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 10
  Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 09 2025 000 WTNT25 KNHC 092034 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025 2100 UTC THU OCT 09 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 60.6W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....275NE 180SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 60.6W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 60.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.6N 62.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.0N 63.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.7N 63.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.5N 63.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.7N 61.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 32.3N 57.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 32.2N 51.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 60.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI]]>
• Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 10
  Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 000 WTNT45 KNHC 092036 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 Satellite images, aircraft observations, and ASCAT data indicate that Jerry is a poorly organized and strongly sheared tropical storm. The low-level center is now fully exposed and elongated, with the main area of deep convection located on the system's south and southeast sides. The initial intensity is again held at 55 kt, but that could be a little generous. The center of Jerry is less than 100 miles from the northern Leeward Islands, which is often close enough to experience strong winds. However, the ASCAT and aircraft data showed that the strongest winds are confined to a region east of the center. In fact, winds are quite light on the west side. Jerry has been moving erratically today, but smoothing through the fixes suggest that the storm is gradually turning to the right. The initial motion is now estimated to be 300/16 kt. This general motion should continue through early Friday, taking the center of the system near or over the northern Leeward Islands during that time. However, as mentioned above, the strongest winds should pass to the east of the islands due to Jerry's asymmetric structure. A turn to the north is expected to occur by late tomorrow, and that motion should continue through most of the weekend as the storm moves in the flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge. Early next week, a faster eastward or east-northeastward motion is forecast in the mid-latitude westerlies. Jerry is expected to pass east of Bermuda in a few days, and given its expected eastward asymmetry, significant impacts appear unlikely there. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and this prediction is in best agreement with the HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Strengthening in the short term seems unlikely given Jerry's poor initial structure. However, after the storm passes the northern Leeward Islands, the vertical wind shear could decrease some while Jerry remains over warm water and in a moist air mass. Therefore, slow strengthening is predicted from late Friday through Sunday. The opportunity for strengthening will likely end early next week when the system moves into stronger shear and over cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward due to a combination of the storm's poor initial structure and latest guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area this evening through Friday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas and in steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.3N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.6N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 21.0N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 23.7N 63.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 26.5N 63.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 30.7N 61.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 32.3N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 32.2N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi]]>
• Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
  Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 09 2025 000 FONT15 KNHC 092036 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025 2100 UTC THU OCT 09 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) 1(18) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT JOHN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SABA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 34 66 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) BARBUDA 50 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ANTIGUA 34 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GUADELOUPE 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI]]>
• Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Update Number
  Issued at 320 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 000 WTNT65 KNHC 091920 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 320 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR GUADELOUPE... The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi]]>
• Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Oct 2025 20:39:07 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Oct 2025 21:21:46 GMT ]]>