699
FXUS61 KBTV 081422
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1022 AM EDT Thu May 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler conditions are expected today with high temperatures
forecast in 50s and 60s through this weekend. Widespread
rainfall will return Friday as low pressure moves up the New
England coast. Most locations can anticipate between 1 to 2
inches of rainfall Friday through Saturday night with localized
areas possibly receiving around 3 inches. After low pressure
exits, much drier and warmer conditions are expected to start
next week with temperatures warming well into the 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1015 AM EDT Thursday...Extremely blocked northwest flow
will continue for the rest of the day. With associated cold air
advection and a deep saturated layer in the low levels, areas of
mist and drizzle should continue throughout the day.
Temperatures will also struggle to rise, particularly across
northern areas, and diurnal ranges will be impressively low for
the time of year. Had to make changes to several of the
forecast variables to match obs and the latest guidance, but
none of the changes were significantly impactful.

Previous Discussion...Upper level cyclonic flow is keeping
shower chances going longer than previously forecast. While
mostly dry today, a few upslope showers and a smattering of
sprinkles are possible. Temperatures trend cooler than seasonal
averages with highs in the 50s and tonight`s lows ranging in the
mid-upper 30s in the Adirondacks and 40s elsewhere. Tonight,
the digging upper level circulation will invigorate a wave
moving through the Ohio River Valley/northern mid Atlantic
States. This will support cyclogenesis of an area of low
pressure that will move up the New England coast Thursday night
and Friday. As this cyclone matures, a wide swath of rainfall is
anticipated to track across central New York into the eastern
Adirondacks and Vermont beginning tonight and continuing through
much of the weekend. Heaviest amounts continue to be favored
across the southern Greens and eastern Vermont with lowest
amounts in the St Lawrence Valley. Current expectations for
total rainfall mostly fall between 1 and 2 inches from the
Adirondacks eastward with 0.1-0.75" for the remainder of
northern New York and up to around 3 inches for localized spots
towards southern Vermont. More information for this system
follows below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 AM EDT Thursday...The wet pattern will continue Friday
night through much of the day on Saturday as the closed low will
continue to meander slowly eastward between two upper level ridges.
We could see a period of moderate rainfall Friday night as jet
dynamics will be favorable for a 6-12 hour period with good upper
level diffluence. By daybreak on Saturday, higher resolution
guidance is beginning to depict a dry slot, associated with the
mature mid-latitude cyclone, move across the North Country which may
bring a brief respite of rainfall. This should be short-lived as
moisture rotating around the upper level low will interact with
steepening lapse rates aloft which should allow additional rainfall
on the western periphery of the low pressure system. There is some
disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF on how fast rainfall comes to
an end Saturday night but it looks like rainfall will come to an end
by the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. As for flooding potential, the
MMEFS continues to depict a less than 50% chance for minor flooding
along the Otter Creek at Center Rutland and the east branch of the
Ausable River at Ausable Forks. Rainfall rates will be far too low
for any flash flood risk, but we could see some decent rises on area
rivers with some stream and creek flooding along the with potential
for some minor river flooding. With all that being said, the flood
potential isn`t high enough at this time to preclude the issuance of
a flood watch for southern Vermont or the Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Thursday...A significant pattern change will begin
to take place on Sunday. Another longwave blocking pattern looks to
establish itself across the United States next week but this time we
will be under the influence of deep layer ridging rather than low
pressure. This will finally bring a spell of dry weather to the
North Country starting Sunday and what could last through the middle
of next week. Rain chances will begin to return as we head into
Wednesday as the deep layer ridging slides off to the east with
either an open wave (GFS) or closed low (ECMWF/Canadian) replaces
the ridge. The speed of which the ridge slides eastward will largely
be dependent on the strength of the upper level feature. There are
some hints we could see some rumbles of thunder later this week as
we see temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s coupled with the
potential for diurnal convection under broad cyclonic flow. The
first real taste of summer seems to be at our doorstep and longer
range guidance suggests we could be in this pattern for several
weeks.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Mixed IFR/MVFR mainly for area terminals
with lingering showers behind yesterday evening`s weak cold
front. Best chances of IFR will be at SLK/RUT/MSS through 15Z.
On radar, scattered showers continue across northern New York
and Vermont. CIGs will slowly improve to MVFR as marginally
mixing increases. SFC winds will generally be northwesterly
5-10kts. After 18Z, an area of low pressure will track
northwards bringing increasing chances of prolonged stratiform
rainfall. Decreased most terminals back to IFR by 00Z as stable
rain processes favor lowering of CIGs. MVFR VIS chances increase
after 00Z for Vermont terminals as well in rain and mist.


Outlook...

Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Boyd