FXUS61 KBTV 131757
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
157 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021
A stretch of seasonably warm days with scattered afternoon
showers and an isolated rumble of thunder are expected for the
North Country. A frontal boundary is expected to approach
towards the middle of the next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 157 PM EDT Thursday...Made some adjustments to
precipitation and weather for this evening based on the latest
model data, with a lowered risk of thunderstorms even near the
International Border as the expected showers trend later and
farther north and east. Therefore, thunder chances will be brief
for our area, dependent on if convection enters from southern
Canada by 8 PM or so since we will lose the necessary
instability to have any storms rather quickly past sunset.
Otherwise, expect brief rain showers to move through the
northern portions of Vermont primarily between 8 and 11 PM.
During the day, we should have mostly sunny skies. Temperatures
will quickly climb into the mid to upper 60s. Forecast
soundings indicate a deeply mixed environment, yet with high
pressure nosing in, the overall flow is weak. Thus, it could be
breezy this afternoon, but nothing much stronger than 15 to 20
mph. Relative humidities will fall below 30 percent, but with
green-up well underway and recent rainfall, this should not pose
too much of an issue. Late in the day, a pocket of very dry air
will shift southwards creating a density boundary in Quebec
Province. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will
develop along this feature and then push southwards into the
North Country late this afternoon. These could produce brief,
gusty winds owing the dry PBL conditions in place. Axis of
deformation and even some FGEN pivots into Vermont, which may
allow activity to continue for some time after sunset. After
midnight, this small region of better dynamics shifts south and
east, and activity should quickly wane. Overnight lows will be a
few degrees warmer, with upper 30s in the Dacks and Northeast
Kingdom, and 40s for the rest of the region.
On Friday, despite the incoming ridge and relatively dry
surface conditions, enough instability is in place to produce
scattered showers during the afternoon. Initiation should begin
across the high terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens, and then
showers will shift southeastwards as they develop. Temperatures
will warm in the mid 60s to lower 70s in the afternoon with
light, but steady west to northwest winds.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Thursday...Friday night and Saturday will
feature pretty quiet weather, and temperatures beginning to rise
above seasonal normals. Afternoon showers on Friday will
dissipate and the overnight will be mainly dry with ridge of
surface high pressure still over the region. Saturday will also
start out dry and quiet, but temperatures will warm into the
upper 60s to lower 70s Saturday afternoon, and some weak
shortwave energy will pass through upper level flow. Therefore
have mentioned just a chance for some afternoon showers,
especially in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Thursday...Any showers will die down Saturday
night with loss of daytime heating and little bit of surface
instability that was available. Ridge of surface high pressure
will finally slide eastward early next week. Models still not in
very good agreement with how things will play out next week,
but it still appears that a surface cold front will cross the
area on Tuesday. GFS wants to bring this feature through
relatively dry, while the ECMWF wants to spit out some showers
for us. Beyond Tue there`s really not much agreement between the
models at all. Does look like temperatures will remain slightly
warmer than seasonal normals though with highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s each day, and lows in the 40s to lower 50s.
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Continued VFR conditions through the TAF
period as convective clouds will have bases above 5000 feet. A
shower or two may impact northern and eastern terminals between
00Z and 06Z with no visibility restrictions expected. Otherwise,
15 to 20 knot wind gusts at Vermont sites will ease after 00Z.
Light winds will gradually pick back up after 12Z into the 6 to
10 knot range out of the west at MSS and SLK, and northwest
elsewhere except easterly at PBG where a lake breeze will
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.