000
FXUS61 KBTV 241402
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1002 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry weather is expected through tonight as high
pressure briefly crosses the region. Then as a strong low
pressure system passes to our northwest, an elevationally
dependent mixed precipitation and snowfall event will unfold
over the region Saturday and Saturday night. Some light snow
and ice accumulations are possible. After lingering showers on
Sunday, we turn towards drier weather early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 958 AM EDT Friday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. Lingering flurries/sprinkles have dissipated,
but as expected, we`re still seeing ample cloud cover across the
region this morning. It should dissipate gradually this
afternoon as drier air works into the region, but have updated
sky cover to keep things a little cloudier than previously
anticipated. Otherwise, temperatures are in the upper 20s to mid
30s areawide, with some locations running a few degrees warmer
than expected. Tweaked the high temperature forecast
accordingly, especially in the St Lawrence Valley where
temperatures were already close to the forecasted highs for this
afternoon. Otherwise the forecast is in good shape and no other
changes were needed.

Previous discussion...Surface and upper level ridging will move
into our region today, and a gradual clearing trend is
expected. Quiet weather with cooler than normal temperatures is
forecast for today into tonight. The ridge crests directly
overhead tonight, resulting in light winds and at least some
clearing, though high clouds will begin to increase in western
areas toward daybreak Saturday ahead of our next system. High
temperatures today will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Temperatures will dip into the teens and 20s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Friday...Low pressure system will track from
just south of the Great Lakes early Saturday morning,
northeastward into eastern Ontario by Saturday evening, and
cross north of our region Saturday night. A weaker secondary low
will form somewhere along the New England coastline on Saturday
night into Sunday as well. Precipitation will spread northward
into our region by early Saturday morning. Models still show a
strong band of frontogenesis lifting across our area during
Saturday afternoon, and the heavier precipitation should help to
cool the column enough for some snow. Southeasterly flow aloft
will mean that first batch of precipitation early Saturday
morning will be highest on the east facing upslope regions of
the Greens and Dacks. Will also see some strong downslope winds
out of the southeast on west facing slopes. The flow will become
more southwesterly as the day wears on, and warm air aloft will
move into the region. Most valley locations will mainly see
rain with this storm, while the higher elevations will probably
experience all precipitation types throughout the storm. As the
secondary low forms off the New England coast during the
overnight hours, temperatures will cool aloft and the higher
elevations will see a change over to snow before the
precipitation becomes more showery and comes to an end. Storm
total liquid precipitation will be around a quarter of an inch
up to six tenths of an inch. Snow accumulations will mainly be
from 1500 feet and higher, and around one to four inches. Lower
elevations should only see an inch or less. Ice accumulations
will mainly be limited to southern Vermont and some higher
elevations, and a few hundredths of an inch or less. Further
fine tuning and forecast adjustments are expected with such a
complex scenario with borderline thermal profiles and elevation
dependency. Low pressure will continue to track further away
from our region. Precipitation will become more showery before
ending midday Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 341 AM EDT Friday...Generally seasonal, quiet weather for
next week as upper CONUS flow remains progressive. There
remains one larger-scale system to watch, most notably in the
Tuesday Night/Wednesday time frame as eastward moving Ohio
Valley energy interacts with a slight digging of the polar
trough centered across central Canada. Models continue to have
different ideas on timing and strength of this feature, but the
majority consensus keeps the two upper streams unphased with
deeper moisture and energy remaining largely south of our area
leaving just some scattered rain/snow shower activity.
Temperatures should hold within a few degrees of seasonal norms
through next week as daily highs top out in the upper 30s to mid
40s and overnight lows bottom out mainly in the 20s to locally
around 30.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z Saturday...Mix of MVFR/VFR cigs expected through
18Z Friday, after which a trend toward mainly VFR should be the
rule at all terminals. Frontal boundary continues pushing
through the region at 06Z with a few lingering showers here and
there across the Champlain Valley into northern VT. After 09Z
any showers should move out of the area as the front clears
south and east. Winds generally west to northwesterly from 5 to
10 kts through the period, abating to light toward 00Z Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Definite
RA, Definite SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite RA, Definite SN, Definite PL, Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night:  Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday:  Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG