366
FXUS61 KBTV 030619
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
119 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 114 AM EST Tuesday...
No significant changes were made this forecast cycle. A few
snow showers are expected in cyclonic flow through Thursday
before a more organized cold front swings through late week
bringing some light accumulations of snow, gusty winds, and some
potential for dangerously cold wind chill values over the
weekend.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 114 AM EST Tuesday...
1. Below normal temperatures continue with isolated to
scattered light snow showers expected Tuesday through Thursday.
2. Hazardous travel is possible late Friday and Friday night
due to snow showers spreading over the region.
3. Confidence is increasing that we`ll see another round of
dangerous cold next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 114 AM EST Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An upper level shortwave and weak surface low
pressure area will approach our area today, crossing overhead
tonight. Only expecting very light snow with these features, and
best chances will be in the higher elevations and scattered in
nature. Additional upper level shortwave energy crosses the area
on Thursday with a similar outcome of just some scattered light
snow showers. Directly downwind of Lake Ontario in the southern
St Lawrence valley could see some enhancement or better
organization of the snow showers, but still not expecting any
significant accumulations, generally an inch or less with each
of these features. Temperatures remain cooler than seasonal
normals through the period with highs in the teens to lower 20s,
and lows in the single digits to lower teens.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Widespread snow showers are expected Friday
afternoon and Friday night as a clipper low pressure system and
its associated upper trough scoot across northern New England.
Snow showers will likely be more scattered in nature during the
daylight hours, but expect they`ll become more organized
overnight as a strong cold front pushes through the region from
west to east. While this will be a strong front with ample low-
level convergence and frontogenetical forcing, instability will
be lacking given the poor timing (ie overnight rather than
during the day). So while perhaps not true squalls, do expect
there could be heavier embedded snow showers as this front moves
through Friday night. Regardless, snow/liquid ratios will be
high, resulting in a fairly light and fluffy snow. While still a
little early to know exact amounts, general thinking is most
areas would see a couple of inches at most, with perhaps higher
amounts in the higher terrain and western slopes as winds will
turn toward the west/northwest, favoring the usual upslope
sections. The incoming airmass behind the cold front will be
quite dry (PWATs less than 0.1 inch), so would expect snow to
come to a quick end on Saturday, lingering longest in the
northern Greens.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The aforementioned cold front will usher in
another arctic airmass for the weekend. Temperatures will likely
fall quite sharply Friday night as the front moves through and
continue to do so through the day Saturday as cold air advection
continues on brisk north/northwest winds. The 01z NBM shows
60-100% chances of highs areawide remaining less than 10F both
Saturday and Sunday, with 40- 80% probabilities that highs don`t
even reach 0F across the northern mountains. Meanwhile,
overnight lows both Saturday night and Sunday night have 60-100%
chance of dropping below -10F, with portions of the St Lawrence
Valley and northern Adirondacks having a 30-55% chance of
seeing lows below -20F. Given that 850mb temperatures are
progged to be -28C to -31C, these overnight lows seem
reasonable. The coldest conditions will be Saturday and Saturday
night, but anticipate very cold temperatures to persist right
through the entire weekend. In addition, strong cold air
advection will make for steep lapse rates and ample mixing
through much of the weekend as well, so winds will remain on the
breezy side. This combined with the very cold ambient
temperatures will likely lead to daytime wind chills of -15F to
-25F Saturday and Sunday, with overnights -20F to - 35F.
Needless to say, these conditions will be very dangerous for
anyone outdoors, especially if they are not dressed for the
conditions. Anyone with outdoor plans next weekend should keep
a close eye on future forecasts and remain alert for any future
cold watches/warnings/advisories.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Other than a few exceptions, VFR
expected to prevail through the first 12-18 hours of the TAF
period. Lingering low level moisture trapped below a shallow
thermal inversion has already resulted in LIFR ceilings at KSLK,
which will persist toward 15z, then improving to MVFR
thereafter. IFR/low MVFR ceilings will be possible at KMPV and
KEFK as well, but confidence not high enough at this time for
any mention beyond SCT012 09z-13z. Mid/high clouds thicken and
lower through the daylight hours Tuesday, and anticipate all
terminals will be MVFR by 03z Wed. Some light snow shower
activity is possible over northern NY after 18z, but lack of
coverage/intensity warrants VCSH only with this package. Light
and variable winds will be terrain-driven overnight into early
Tuesday morning, becoming S/SW 4-8 kt after 14z Tue.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: MVFR. Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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