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FXUS61 KBTV 241802
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
202 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather will continue through the weekend with scattered
to overcast highs clouds associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia as it moves northward into the Mid Atlantic. Only very
light precipitation is expected from this system across the
North Country. Much of next week is expected to be dry with near
normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 202 PM EDT Sunday...No further changes made with this
update as not a lot has changed over the last few hours other
than fog and stratus clearing out. Sprinkles and light showers
continue to persist in the same corridor through central Vermont
and the Adirondacks, with no precipitation to the north and
south. Convective showers in Massachusetts lifting northward
may approach our southern counties early this evening so will
keep an eye on trends. They remain unlikely to impact our area
as better moisture gets shunted westward before getting to this
latitude.

Previous Discussion...
Quiet weather will continue across our region through Monday.
Some light showers associated with moisture from Post-Tropical
Cyclone Ophelia are reaching parts of Southern Vermont, while
most of our area is under some high clouds from this system.
Despite the high cloud cover, we`ve had some fog form with calm
conditions and only thin clouds in place. Some of the radar
reflectivities edging northward don`t appear to be reaching the
ground with dry air mass still in place. Scattered to broken
mid/high clouds will persist across the region today, before
clearing from northwest to southeast tonight. Highs today will
be similar to yesterday in the low 70s north to mid 60s south.
Lows tonight will be similar to last night in the 40s to low
50s. Monday will start our stretch of dry weather with near
seasonal temperatures as remnants of Ophelia pull away from the
CONUS. Some fair weather cumulus over the high terrain is
expected in the afternoon, but otherwise a mainly sunny day is
expected with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s once
again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...Strengthening high pressure over
Quebec, Canada, will be the main feature in control of our
weather for the early week, keeping conditions dry. Mostly clear
skies from a dry air mass and strong subsidence will be perfect
for radiational cooling Monday night, dropping temperatures
into the chilly mid to upper 30s for the cold spots of the
Adirondacks, and 40s elsewhere, all in all fairly seasonable for
the second half of September, and we are not concerned about
widespread frost. This will also allow for radiation fog in the
typical valleys as easterly winds decrease. Tuesday will also
see seasonable highs in the mid to upper 60s under a beautiful
sunny sky. There could be a light northwesterly breeze, but
generally a pleasant, quiet day for the North Country expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...It`s copy and paste weather through
next weekend with conditions similar to the short term expected
throughout the long term: high pressure, not a drop of precip,
mostly sunny days providing highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
and mainly clear nights with lows 30s to lower 50s, moderating
slightly each night. Radiation fog possible to likely each
night, especially in the typical river valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Variable, but primarily VFR conditions
will persist during this period. Behind a weak frontal boundary
dropping in from our north tonight, a pressure gradient will
increase as high pressure builds southward. As a result, while
skies trend clear, winds may become gusty after 12Z especially
at MSS where 20-25 kt gusts are possible in favored northeast
flow, with largely easterly wind continuing during the day at
SLK and RUT. The winds just above the deck will again make fog
formation relatively uncertain. Weighed persistence and
climatology to include another period of dense fog at MPV, and
some fog will be probable at EFK and at MSS, and potential at
other sites can be re-evaluated in the next TAF package.


Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Kutikoff/Neiles