000
FXUS61 KBTV 241057
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
657 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry weather is expected through midnight as high
pressure briefly crosses the region. Then as a strong low
pressure system passes to our northwest, an elevationally
dependent mixed precipitation and snowfall event will unfold
over the region Saturday into Saturday night. Some light snow
and ice accumulations are possible. After lingering showers on
Sunday, we turn towards drier weather early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM EDT Friday...No big changes for the morning
update. Mid clouds are in place across the region. Cold front
has finally crossed the region and winds are now out of the
northwest areawide. Previous discussion follows.
Surface and upper level ridging will move into our region
today, and a gradual clearing trend is expected. Quiet weather
with cooler than normal temperatures is forecast for today into
tonight. The ridge crests directly overhead tonight, resulting
in light winds and at least some clearing, though high clouds
will begin to increase in western areas toward daybreak Saturday
ahead of our next system. High temperatures today will range
from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures will dip into the
teens and 20s overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Friday...Low pressure system will track from
just south of the Great Lakes early Saturday morning,
northeastward into eastern Ontario by Saturday evening, and
cross north of our region Saturday night. A weaker secondary low
will form somewhere along the New England coastline on Saturday
night into Sunday as well. Precipitation will spread northward
into our region by early Saturday morning. Models still show a
strong band of frontogenesis lifting across our area during
Saturday afternoon, and the heavier precipitation should help to
cool the column enough for some snow. Southeasterly flow aloft
will mean that first batch of precipitation early Saturday
morning will be highest on the east facing upslope regions of
the Greens and Dacks. Will also see some strong downslope winds
out of the southeast on west facing slopes. The flow will become
more southwesterly as the day wears on, and warm air aloft will
move into the region. Most valley locations will mainly see
rain with this storm, while the higher elevations will probably
experience all precipitation types throughout the storm. As the
secondary low forms off the New England coast during the
overnight hours, temperatures will cool aloft and the higher
elevations will see a change over to snow before the
precipitation becomes more showery and comes to an end. Storm
total liquid precipitation will be around a quarter of an inch
up to six tenths of an inch. Snow accumulations will mainly be
from 1500 feet and higher, and around one to four inches. Lower
elevations should only see an inch or less. Ice accumulations
will mainly be limited to southern Vermont and some higher
elevations, and a few hundredths of an inch or less. Further
fine tuning and forecast adjustments are expected with such a
complex scenario with borderline thermal profiles and elevation
dependency. Low pressure will continue to track further away
from our region. Precipitation will become more showery before
ending midday Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 341 AM EDT Friday...Generally seasonal, quiet weather for
next week as upper CONUS flow remains progressive. There
remains one larger-scale system to watch, most notably in the
Tuesday Night/Wednesday time frame as eastward moving Ohio
Valley energy interacts with a slight digging of the polar
trough centered across central Canada. Models continue to have
different ideas on timing and strength of this feature, but the
majority consensus keeps the two upper streams unphased with
deeper moisture and energy remaining largely south of our area
leaving just some scattered rain/snow shower activity.
Temperatures should hold within a few degrees of seasonal norms
through next week as daily highs top out in the upper 30s to mid
40s and overnight lows bottom out mainly in the 20s to locally
around 30.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z Saturday...Mix of MVFR/VFR cigs expected through
18Z Friday, after which a trend toward mainly VFR should be the
rule at all terminals. Frontal boundary continues pushing
through the region at 06Z with a few lingering showers here and
there across the Champlain Valley into northern VT. After 09Z
any showers should move out of the area as the front clears
south and east. Winds generally west to northwesterly from 5 to
10 kts through the period, abating to light toward 00Z Saturday.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Definite
RA, Definite SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite RA, Definite SN, Definite PL, Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
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