965
FXUS61 KBTV 031857
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
257 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain for this afternoon and
into the early evening. Cooler and drier weather will move in for
Independence Day, with pleasant conditions expected. A warming trend
starts on Saturday, with highs back into the 90s by early next week.
Next week will see seasonable temperatures and chances for showers
and thunderstorms most afternoons.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 256 PM EDT Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms are moving
through central Vermont along the cold front, though storms are
weakening as it moves into the already worked over areas in Eastern
Vermont that saw convection earlier this morning.

For the rest of today and into this evening, Hi-Res models continue
to show a third round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
move into the St Lawrence Valley this afternoon and push through
into Vermont in the late afternoon into the early evening. This
could impact outdoor activities around the region this afternoon.
While this last round of storms may not become strong/severe, like
was seen earlier today, they will still be capable of producing
deadly lightning. If you have outdoor plans, please stay weather
aware and follow the latest forecast updates.

Tonight will see quieter and cooler weather behind the front, with
temperatures in the 50s and some early morning fog in areas that saw
rainfall during the day.

Independence Day will see seasonably cool temperatures with highs in
the upper 60s to upper 70s with brisk northwest flow throughout the
day. Friday night will be another cool and quiet night with just
some increasing cloud cover in the pre-dawn hours limiting the
chances of overnight fog.

Saturday will see a return to warmer temperaturewise and upper level
ridge crests over the region, bringing high temperaturewise back into
the 80s. Southerly flow will bring a push of slightly more humid air
Saturday afternoon as dew points push back into the upper 50s. This
along with some mid level moisture that will keep cloud cover over
the region Saturday night will keep over night lows warm, in the mid
to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 256 PM EDT Thursday...Sunday will bring the hottest day of the
period, with temperatures in the mid 90s and dew points in the 60s.
While this will continue our run of seeing a day of 90s each week,
right now, models are leaning to this day not being as impactful as
prior 90 degree days. Still, on the back end of a Holiday weekend,
people should take extra caution when doing outdoor activities and
stay hydrated. While Sunday looks to be mainly dry, a boundary
settles in just north of the International Boarder, which could
bring an afternoon shower or two across the northern counties. A
thunderstorm cannot also be ruled out.

Sunday night will be warm again with overnight lows in the 60s. The
boundary still remain to the north of the area, so chances for
showers along the International Boarder continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 256 PM EDT Thursday...For next week, a cold front finally
pushes through Monday afternoon, bringing another chance for showers
and thunderstorms. Highs on Monday could tough the low 90s again, so
this looks to be the next best day for impactful convection. Beyond
this, things look to be unsettled as our region comes under the
influence of a long wave trough. This will bring highs in the low to
mid 80s and chances for afternoon convection each day.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
lower visibilities today and have mainly used PROB30 groups to
account for this. Cloud cover is expected to increase today,
though ceilings should stay generally 4500 feet above ground
level or higher. Rain shower chances increase 12Z-18Z with
highest confidence of a shower or even a thunderstorm 18Z
onward. Depending on where these showers or thunderstorms occur,
visibilities could be reduced to lower than forecast. Winds are
expected to turn more northwesterly today 5-10 knots with gusts
up to 20 knots possible, potentially even higher in any
thunderstorms. Will once again have potential for fog formation
overnight, especially terminals that have rainfall today.


Outlook...

Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Verasamy
NEAR TERM...Verasamy
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Neiles