257
FXUS61 KBTV 080201
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1001 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will finally exit the region tonight as a
cold front pushes through. Cooler and drier conditions will
arrive for Thursday with temperatures tomorrow and into the
weekend in the 50s and 60s. Additional rainfall will develop
early Friday into Saturday, especially in southern and eastern
Vermont. Rainfall between 1 to 2 inches is possible. Next week
looks to start off dry with temperatures warming into the 70s to
near 80.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 954 PM EDT Wednesday... The heavier rain showers have
been diminishing this evening and that trend will continue.
However, with flow becoming critically blocked and lots of low-
level moisture forecast to linger, there will likely continue to
be light showers and areas of mist/drizzle. The cold front is
gradually making its way across the region. but it is moving a
bit slower than forecast, so had to increase temperatures for
the first part of the night. Temperatures will still drop
behind its passage and they should still fall to around
climatological normals by morning.
Previous Forecast...An upper level low continues to spin and
move eastward across the region. Temperatures across the region
are generally in the low to mid 60s, with lower temperatures
where rain is falling. The main area of precipitation this
morning has moved into New Hampshire, with just some lingering
light to moderate showers underneath the center of the low
areawide. These showers should taper off quickly in the next
hour or so, with possibly some peaks of sun to end the day. Wrap
around moisture in the St. Lawrence will continue to move into
the Adirondacks, but should taper off by this evening as forcing
and the axis of deformation weakens. Gusty southerly winds in
eastern Vermont will become calm this evening and changeover to
more light northerly winds as the low pivots to the east. By
sunset, a cold front will push into the area bringing seasonably
cooler air for tomorrow. Temperatures tonight will fall into
the mid to upper 40s in the valleys and near 40 in the higher
terrain. Additional light showers may accompany the front
overnight, particularly in northern Vermont.
By Thursday, the cold front stalls out to the south of the area
across southern New England with cooler and drier air behind. A
sharp trough will dig in across the area keeping clouds in the
area. Daytime minimum relative humidities will be near 45-55%,
especially in the valleys. Temperatures will be fairly uniform
across the region with values in the mid 50s, but where some
peaks of sun are possible in southern Vermont, values may reach
near 60. Most of the area tomorrow should see the better portion
of the day be rain free, a welcome break from the last few
days. However, near the stalled boundary, Rutland and Windsor
Counties will see precipitation return Thursday
afternoon/evening as a moisture axis looks to redevelop. Rain
will become more steady by Thursday night with precipitation
amounts between 0.1 to 0.5 inches by Friday morning across
central and southern Vermont. Temperatures Thursday night will
be in the low to mid 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 PM EDT Wednesday...Confidence conts to increase for a
widespread wetting rainfall from the Eastern Dacks into all of
VT. Guidance conts to become in better agreement with evolution
of mid/upper lvl trof and associated sfc low pres track. Still
some disagreement on north extent of heaviest qpf and how fast
the system pulls away on Saturday. For Friday into Friday night
have increased pops to 100% for central/eastern and southern VT
zones which taper off to chc for SLV. The latest NBM shows 40 to
60% probability of qpf >0.50" acrs most of VT, but less than
30% for qpf amounts >1.0" with highest probabilities over
Rutland/Windsor counties. The NBM qpf mean shows 1.1" at VSF,
0.75" at BTV, and just 0.25" at MSS, which highlights the
potential SE to NW qpf gradient expected acrs our cwa. For event
total qpf we have 0.10 to 0.25" SLV to 1.0 to 1.75"
Rutland/Windsor counties, which could increase further as
confidence in heaviest qpf axis increases. Given the deepening
and closing off 7h/5h circulation and associated track acrs
eastern PA into SNE, I feel measurable precip is likely acrs a
majority of our region during this time frame. Also, the
combination of northerly flow and plenty of clouds/precip, have
trended high temps toward the cooler MAV guidance/10th
percentile, supporting highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s, except
upper 50s SLV. We wl continue to monitor hydro trends, the lack
of instability should limit rainfall rates and minimize the
potential for flash flooding, but sharp rises on streams and
rivers are likely by Saturday acrs central/eastern and southern
VT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 403 PM EDT Wednesday...12z guidance and associated
ensemble members continue to come into better agreement with
deep cyclonic circulation and tracking of sfc reflection from
near NYC to the Gulf of Maine. This places our cwa in the
favorable mid lvl deformation zone on Saturday with developing
upslope flow. Based on this and potential for deeply closed
system to move slower than progged, have continued with high
likely pops for VT thru 18z, before tapering off to schc/chc
after 18z. Highest additional qpf wl be acrs the eastern
CPV/western Slopes and acrs most of central/northern VT,
including the NEK. Temps are tricky as clearing late in the day,
could result in temps popping into the lower 60s, so have kept
close to NBM for now. If clearing is delayed and precip lingers
with northerly flow, highs wl be 3 to 5 degrees lower,
especially central/northern VT mtns.
Mid/upper lvl trof departs the ne conus by Sunday with building
heights and improving conditions for Sunday into early next week. We
wl be watching a potential backdoor cold frnt approaching our ne
sections and associated axis of mid lvl moisture/fgen for some
clouds and scattered showers late Monday into Tues. For now, this
scenario has low predictability given the complex upper lvls and
associated sfc pattern. We have a dry fcst attm with temps warming
back into the 70s to a few lower 80s possible in the warmer valleys
by midweek as progged 925mb temps warm btwn 16-18C. Also, have to
watch meandering closed cyclonic circulation of the MS/OH Valley
region for Tues/Weds, but latest trends keeps the deeper moisture
just to our south.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Mostly a mix of MVFR/VFR across the region
this evening with isolated to scattered showers as a weak
cold front moves across the region. Light south/southwest winds
ahead of this front will turn toward the west/northwest once it
moves through, generally by 06z Thu. Ceilings will lower behind
the front as well, generally remaining 1200-2500 ft and
remaining so through much of the remainder of the TAF period.
The exception will be KSLK, where ceilings will lower below 1000
ft after 06z and remain so through 18z Thu. Ceilings will start
to show gradual improvement after 15z, with VFR possible at KMSS
and KBTV after 18z.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Danzig/Hastings
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