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  Monday September 25, 2023

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 241432
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1032 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather will continue through the weekend with scattered
to overcast highs clouds associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia as it moves northward into the Mid Atlantic. Only very
light precipitation is expected from this system across the
North Country. Much of next week is expected to be dry with near
normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1032 AM EDT Sunday...Some changes were made, mainly to
dew points and weather, for this update. Fog and low stratus
has proven difficult to dislodge in northern portions of New
York and Vermont. Forecast soundings and trends in observations
do show improving conditions will likely occur finally by early
this afternoon. Additionally, pockets of sprinkles denoted by
deeper moisture on the GOES-16 satellite day phase distinction
product continue to roll eastward through portions of central
and eastern Vermont and northern Adirondacks on the northern
edge of a clearing line. Have added a larger area of sprinkles
and removed mention of showers as measurable looks unlikely with
a very pronounced dry layer just above the ground. Locally dry
air at the surface was noted in portions of south central
Vermont with dew points in the 30s, which may persist through
the day although it will likely modify a bit. Otherwise,
forecast is pretty good shape at this time.

Previous Discussion...
Quiet weather will continue across our region through Monday.
Some light showers associated with moisture from Post-Tropical
Cyclone Ophelia are reaching parts of Southern Vermont, while
most of our area is under some high clouds from this system.
Despite the high cloud cover, we`ve had some fog form with calm
conditions and only thin clouds in place. Some of the radar
reflectivities edging northward don`t appear to be reaching the
ground with dry air mass still in place. Scattered to broken
mid/high clouds will persist across the region today, before
clearing from northwest to southeast tonight. Highs today will
be similar to yesterday in the low 70s north to mid 60s south.
Lows tonight will be similar to last night in the 40s to low
50s. Monday will start our stretch of dry weather with near
seasonal temperatures as remnants of Ophelia pull away from the
CONUS. Some fair weather cumulus over the high terrain is
expected in the afternoon, but otherwise a mainly sunny day is
expected with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s once
again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...Strengthening high pressure over
Quebec, Canada, will be the main feature in control of our
weather for the early week, keeping conditions dry. Mostly clear
skies from a dry air mass and strong subsidence will be perfect
for radiational cooling Monday night, dropping temperatures
into the chilly mid to upper 30s for the cold spots of the
Adirondacks, and 40s elsewhere, all in all fairly seasonable for
the second half of September, and we are not concerned about
widespread frost. This will also allow for radiation fog in the
typical valleys as easterly winds decrease. Tuesday will also
see seasonable highs in the mid to upper 60s under a beautiful
sunny sky. There could be a light northwesterly breeze, but
generally a pleasant, quiet day for the North Country expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...It`s copy and paste weather through
next weekend with conditions similar to the short term expected
throughout the long term: high pressure, not a drop of precip,
mostly sunny days providing highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
and mainly clear nights with lows 30s to lower 50s, moderating
slightly each night. Radiation fog possible to likely each
night, especially in the typical river valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12 Monday...Some fog developed overnight, and will be
lifting by about 14z at all sites. Light showers have lifted
further north in our area than anticipated, but really low
impact very light showers only. Winds will be variable at 4-8kts
during the daylight hours and mainly calm overnight areawide.
Will have to consider potential for fog again tonight, but have
not included in the forecast at this time.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Neiles


 
 
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