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  Friday March 29, 2024

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 280539
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
139 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers will continue over mainly eastern areas
through Thursday as a weak cold front slowly crosses the region. Low
pressure moving northward well off the East Coast will bring the
chance for some rain and snow across far eastern Vermont Thursday
night and Friday, but the main trend for the end of the week will be
near normal temperatures and drier weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 139 AM EDT Thursday...Main update to the forecast early
this morning was to speed up the arrival of our next round of
rain which is already working into Bennington and Windham
counties. Otherwise, the forecast for the remainder of the night
is in good shape with widespread fog east of the Greens and low
clouds elsewhere keeping temps mild in the 30s and 40s.

Showers will persist through about mid afternoon today, but
should start to shift eastward thereafter as the front does
likewise. Given abundant cloud cover, highs tomorrow will be in
the 40s areawide. The front will move to our east Thursday night
while developing low pressure lifts northward well off the East
Coast. This may allow precipitation to linger across far
eastern Vermont through the overnight hours. Colder air will
follow the frontal passage as winds turn to the northwest, so
although temperatures will remain above normal (upper 20s to mid
30s), rain will likely transition over to snow. Light
accumulations will be possible, limited to mainly the far
Northeast Kingdom.

The overall trend with this model suite has been a slight westward
shift in the rain axis through the next 36 hours. This has resulted
in increase in expected rainfall totals, which now range from around
a tenth of an inch in much of northern NY to nearly three-quarters
of an inch in southeastern VT. While temperatures will remain above
freezing much of that time, expect snowmelt will be relatively
limited as the snowpack ripens, especially in those areas that saw
the greatest amounts in our recent snow event. Latest guidance shows
snowmelt will generally be an inch or less through this period. This
combined with rainfall will result in rises along area waterways,
especially smaller, flashier creeks and streams. While the latest
forecasts from the NERFC keep mainstem rivers below flood stage,
some southern rivers such as Otter Creek may approach bankfull.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...An upper level trough will build into
the region on Friday. A surface low will develop on a shortwave that
pivots around it but right now it looks like the low should pass by
far enough to the east to keep any significant precipitation out of
the region. However, about 1/4 of the Euro and GFS ensembles do
bring the precipitation west enough to give parts of eastern Vermont
a few inches of snow. Currently put chance PoPs in those areas to
reflect this uncertainty. Regardless of the exact low track, the
storm system will help tighten the pressure gradient and cause some
gusty northwest winds during the day on Friday. There is not
plentiful low- level moisture and the snow growth zone should remain
unsaturated so upslope snow showers are not expected. However, it
should still be mostly cloudy. Temperatures during this period will
be around normal as highs on Friday will be in the upper 30s and 40s
and lows Friday night will be in the upper 20s and low 30s. If the
low does track farther west and bring more precipitation to the
region, highs will be a few degrees lower than currently
forecasting.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...The upper level trough will remain over
the North Country for the weekend so the roughly seasonable weather
should continue. A center of a weak surface low looks to pass by to
the south of the region on Sunday but it should be able to bring a
few light rain and snow showers to the North Country. Any
accumulations would be very minor and with temperatures above
freezing during the day, any snow would likely struggle to
accumulate at all. Ridging will briefly build in for the start of
the week so Monday should be mostly dry. However, temperatures look
to remain close to normal. A more significant storm system moves
into the North Country for mid-week. There is still too much
uncertainty this far out to provide many details. Ensembles are
split on precipitation type and timing but there is a decent
consensus that there will be a more significant amount of
precipitation with this storm.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Variable conditions will be seen across the
region through mid-morning with LIFR fog and stratus persisting
at KEFK/KMPV/KRUT, while MVFR and periods of IFR are expected
at KBTV, mainly MVFR at KPBG/KSLK and VFR at KMSS. Conditions
slowly improve through the day with LIFR lifting to IFR/MVFR at
KEFK/KMPV/KRUT and MVFR lifting to VFR by late afternoon at
KBTV/KPBG/KSLK. Winds will be light and variable through mid-
morning, turning WSW this afternoon and increasing to 4-8kts.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Lahiff


 
 
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