137
FXUS61 KBTV 152355
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
755 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and
dry weather conditions to the region this week. A cold front
moving southeastward out of Canada will usher in a cooler air
mass for Friday and the upcoming weekend. However, measurable
precipitation is generally not expected with this cold front,
allowing drought conditions to persist across our region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 227 PM EDT Monday...The prolonged stretch of dry weather
will continue across the region as surface high pressure and
upper level ridging continue to remain the dominant weather
feature. Another night with clear skies and radiational fog is
expected with the high continuing to crest overhead. Overnight
low temperatures will drop in the 40s areawide, with lowers 50s
in the Champlain Valley.
Tomorrow will be another day with dry and sunny weather. High
temperatures tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today,
with highs climbing into the upper 70s to near 80 within some of
the broader valleys. Low temperatures will once again drop in
the 40s and 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 227 PM EDT Monday...High pressure will remain the
dominant weather feature as we head towards the middle of the
week, with the dry conditions persisting. Temperatures will
continue to moderate as we head through the week, with highs in
the upper 70s and low 80s across the region. Light winds and
clear skies will likely prevail, with more radiational fog
possible Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 227 PM EDT Monday...The rex block will continue through
Thursday, before a potent trough digs down from the north on
Friday and breaks it up. It will cause the cutoff low that has
been lingering off the Mid-Atlantic to rejoin the circulation.
However, the trough will continue to dig south as it pushes off
over the Atlantic over the weekend, and ridging will amplify to
the west and move into the region. A cold front will come
through on Friday but it will be moisture starved. While a few
showers are possible, the strongest forcing will be well to the
east and dry air in place will help evaporate what falls.
Significant rain is not expected and GEFS/EPS/CAN ensemble
probabilities of more than a tenth of an inch are less than
thirty percent in the highest areas, and those probabilities are
probably on the high side. Temperatures will rise well above
climatological normals on Thursday, with temperatures in the 80s
expected outside the higher terrain. More seasonable or even
slightly below average temperatures arrive for the weekend, with
frost potential outside the broad valleys. After the front
moves through Friday, gusty winds and low relative humidities
could lead to fire weather concerns. While humidities will
likely approach and exceed critical values on Saturday, winds
will be much lighter.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Patchy fog will develop overnight and
will impact MPV and SLK. It is a little more uncertain whether
EFK will be impacted as well, but have included a tempo group to
account for this. There is a low chance that BR will impact RUT
or BTV. Any fog lifts soon after sunrise and VFR conditions
will persist for the rest of the day. Winds will generally be
light and variable/terrain driven, though at some locations the
directions will favor northerly components during the daytime.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Neiles
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