005
FXUS61 KBTV 252341
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
741 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and a rare thunderstorm are possible this
afternoon, but after that, dry weather will prevail into the
start of next week. Temperatures will start off at or below
climatological normals, but by early next week, temperatures
will rise well above normal. The humidity will also rise going
into the start of next week. Shower chances return for the
middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 648 PM EDT Thursday...Added some slight chances of
thunderstorms with the showers are the sun sets. A weak area of
forcing can be seen on water vapor satellite imagery coupled
with the setting sun`s oblique angle striking mid levels of
cumulus congestus and towering cumulus could be just enough to
allowing for few thunderstorms. After sunset, the threat becomes
nil again with a few showers continuing as the mid level trough
swings through the North Country.
Previous Discussion...The cold front passed through the region
this morning, bringing in much drier conditions. Dew points have
fallen into the 50s for most places, and they will continue to
fall a little bit more this afternoon. There will be a few light
showers over northern areas but they will be inconsequential.
The shower chances will end later tonight and skies will slowly
clear out. Temperatures will also fall back into the 50s outside
of areas along Lake Champlain. Some of the colder areas of the
Adirondacks may see temperatures fall into the upper 40s. High
pressure will move into the region for tomorrow and it will
bring mostly sunny skies. A few cumulus will develop in the
afternoon but there will not be any rain from these. Winds will
go mostly calm tomorrow night, and this will set the stage for
efficient radiational cooling. Temperatures will generally fall
into 50s and upper 40s. Patchy fog formation is possible as
well, as crossover temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 259 PM EDT Thursday...Large scale subsidence beneath deep layer
ridging west of us with dry northwest flow will result in a
beautiful Saturday with nil PoPs. High temperatures ranging upper
70s to mid 80s. Then cooling into the low 50s in the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom, with upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 259 PM EDT Thursday...The deep layer ridge will gradually slide
east with an upper low developing southeast of the 40 N, 70 W
benchmark that will then begin lifting north. Surface high pressure
moving offshore will bring a southwest wind back into the region.
The air mass is warmer, but it`s not overly humid. While this may
result in more efficient solar heating, the dewpoint appears likely
to remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s while the plume of moisture
will be well to our west.
Predictability decreases a little bit towards Monday evening, common
when features like cut-off lows are in the vicinity in the medium
range. Several forecast models have shifted to the cut-off upper low
retrograding right over us. This would be fantastic. The decreasing
thicknesses beneath the upper low would lower day time highs while
low-level dry air and ridging would keep us dry. This means a
decreasing potential for an early week heat wave. However, this is a
recent change compared to what we`ve seen. So we`ll watch for
whether we get some run-to-run consistency. At some point, the upper
low will still break down as a larger scale trough approaches from
the west and brings a return to moisture sometime between next
Monday night and Tuesday night. The upper low will have created a
bottleneck by this point with backed up systems swinging through the
remainder of the week. So chances for afternoon hit or miss activity
will be present for the rest of the week with humid, warm nighttime
lows.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...A shortwave is sweeping a few showers
across the forecast area, that are brief but can be heavy,
producing IFR visibilities about 1-2 miles. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected until around 02Z-06Z Friday, when ceilings
will lower to about 2000-3000 feet above ground level for some
sites, potentially fluctuating between MVFR and VFR for other
sites. There is the low chance for some IFR ceilings, primarily
for MPV and areas east of the Green Mountains. There could also
be some LLWS with the passage of the shortwave for site SLK from
about 04Z-10Z Friday. Surface winds currently gusty out of the
northwest will decrease throughout the night, potentially
increasing again tomorrow around 15Z-21Z Friday. VFR conditions
are also expected to return by around 06Z-12Z Friday and
persist through the rest of the 24 hour TAF period.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Storm
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