000
FXUS61 KBTV 171032
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
632 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Another dry and mild day is anticipated today, before light rain
showers and cooler temperatures arrive for tonight into
Thursday. An unsettled and cool pattern will continue into the
upcoming weekend with temperatures mostly in the 50s for highs
and 30s for lows.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 626 AM EDT Wednesday...Crnt obs are in the mid 20s NEK/SLK
to mid 30s CPV/SLV this morning and should start warming quickly
under mostly sunny skies. Early morning GOES-16 satl imagery
showing advancing high level cirrus approaching the SLV, which
will continue to spread from west to east today. Did tweak sky
grids and hrly temps to better match crnt obs, otherwise rest of
fcst in good shape.
Previous discussion below:
Water vapor and RAP upper air analysis indicates a highly
amplified mid/upper lvl pattern prevails acrs the northern tier
conus. Mid/upper lvl trof is located over eastern Canada, while
weak s/w ridge is overhead, followed by deep closed cyclonic
circulation approaching the western Great Lakes. This complex
upper lvl pattern wl provide challenges to when precip arrives
and areal coverage of precip, especially tonight into Thurs.
Some changes have been observed in the latest data with most
guidance more aggressive with advecting deeper moisture into our
cwa associated with a stronger mid/upper lvl trof. This results
in greater coverage of light precip chances tonight into Thurs,
however timing of when column saturation wl occur given deep
dry layer overhead is challenging. Have mid/upper lvl clouds
advecting into the region after 18z from west to east and based
on very dry air around 850mb, feel some lower dwpts are likely
today, especially VT areas. Have nudged NBM dwpts 50% toward the
10 percentile values to highlight potential for drier air to
mix toward the sfc, especially central/eastern sections. Fcst
area should remain dry today with temps very similar to
yesterday, mid 50s to near 60F. Tonight, NAM/HRRR/RAP and GFS
shows weakening ribbon of precip advecting acrs northern NY and
falling apart in the CPV. Have increased pops to likely for
northern NY and chc for the CPV overnight. QPF values should be
light and generally btwn 0.05 and 0.15 overnight. Additional s/w
energy ejects from mid/upper lvl trof acrs the midwest on Thurs
with more light showers likely for northern NY into VT. Once
again areal coverage is challenging, as some guidance,
especially the ECMWF is mostly dry for VT thru 00z Friday,
holding the ridge firm. Based on consensus and latest trends
have bumped pops by 10 to 20% acrs the board, with greatest
potential for precip over northern NY into parts of central VT.
Thursday should not be a complete washout, but it probably won`t
be dry either. Also, given the thicker clouds and light precip,
have lowered highs back into the upper 30s mtns to upper 40s to
mid 50s warmer valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...A decaying occluded front will move
through the region Thursday night, bringing chances for widespread
precipitation. Precipitation amounts with this system will be light,
generally less than 0.25 of an inch. There is a little bit of
uncertainty regarding the frontal as it moves through, as some
guidance shows the system completely falling apart as it moves
eastward while others support it remaining intact as it crosses
through. Regardless, light precipitation can be expect overnight
Thursday into Friday morning, with the greatest confidence across
northern New York. Overnight lows on Thursday will be fairly mild
given abundant cloud cover, with temperatures dropping into the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Behind the front, much of Friday will be dry,
albeit cloudy. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s and low 60s
during the day, aided by southerly flow, before the next frontal
boundary crosses the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...Somewhat unsettled weather will continue
heading into the weekend as as a cold front pushes eastward across
the region Friday night into Saturday, bringing additional chances
for precipitation. Precipitation amounts will be fairly light given
a lack of deep moisture. Behind the frontal boundary, brisk winds
and cooler temperatures are in store for Saturday, with wind gusts
between 20- 35 mph expected. Unsettled weather and additional chances
for precipitation will continue into the weekend as the region
remains under the influence of an upper level trough, although
showers will continue to be light.
As we head into the end of the weekend and early next week, high
pressure looks to build into the region, bringing another period of
mostly dry weather and some sun. Temperatures will be fairly
seasonable, with daytime highs warming into the 50s to low 60s and
overnight lows dropping into the 30s to low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions continue at all our taf
sites today with intervals of mid/upper level clouds developing
from west to east, especially this aftn. These clouds will lower
tonight with MVFR cigs possible at SLK/MSS toward 12z Thursday.
In addition, some light rain showers are possible after 06z
tonight, but given dry low level conditions, expect VFR vis.
Greatest potential for a passing shower wl be northern NY taf
sites. Winds will be north/northeast at 4 to 8 knots today,
becoming south/southeast at most sites by this evening.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber
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