975
FXUS61 KBTV 021913
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
213 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Brisk conditions will continue this morning with cold apparent
temperatures below zero degrees for most locations. A few snow
showers will continue mainly for upslope areas over the next few
days with a weak system moving through this weekend bringing some
light snow accumulations. Unseasonably cool temperatures are
expected to trend back towards seasonal averages by the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 201 PM EST Friday...Cold temperatures remain the primary
weather concern with highs and lows running below seasonal
averages. With some light breezes anticipated overnight minimum
apparent temperatures will be quite cold outside the Champlain
and Connecticut River valleys, feeling like minus 10F and lower
tonight. Otherwise, cyclonic flow will promote and a subtle
trough will provide enough forcing for some sparse showers
overnight into early tomorrow. A more pronounced trough is
highly favored to move through Saturday night leading to some
scattered snow showers, but moisture will be sharply limited
resulting in totals generally less and 1 inch and relegated to
higher terrain and St Lawrence County where some Lake Ontario
moisture becomes entrained into flow. Otherwise, this will be a
fairly inconsequential trough.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 201 PM EST Friday...Isolated showers are favored to linger
over the northern Greens into Sunday before dry air scours out
low level moisture. This will set the stage for another strong
radiational cooling event Sunday night that will drop low
temperatures sharply for the region. Portions of the
Adirondacks, Green Mountains, and northern New York could see
some wind chill values -20 or lower while other locations could
range -10 to -15. It will depend on whether or not we maintain
some winds; even a light drainage wind of 5 mph or so would be
problematic with ambient temperatures below -10F. The Champlain
Valley and southern Vermont will be less susceptible to these
temperatures, but expected conditions bear continued scrutiny.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 201 PM EST Friday...
* Compared to the previous forecast, precipitation timing is a
bit faster: more likely Tuesday night and less likely
Wednesday, especially afternoon.
* A wintry mix of precipitation types remains on the table
midweek. Further warming is expected late in the week, with
potentially an impactful rain event for next Friday.
One last well below normal temperature day for awhile is still
on track for Monday. The latest run of the ECMWF Extreme
Forecast Index, while slightly less impressive than the previous
one, shows unusually low maximum temperatures in our region. An
exception would be the western Adirondacks into southern St.
Lawrence Valley, where the air mass should moderate sooner as
winds turn southerly; low level (925 millibar) temperatures by
evening will approach climatological normals (30-40th
percentile) in these areas, contrasting with Vermont at largely
near the 20th percentile. Increasing clouds will also help limit
warming following a frigid start to the day. Most likely high
temperatures will be in the upper single digits to mid teens for
most locations.
A minor snow event still looks on track for Monday night, but
details remain unclear given the weak forcing and latitudinal
differences in the shortwave responsible for the precipitation. With
the uncertainty in timing/location, light snow still is in the
chance category rather than likely for any given location. A more
robust low pressure area, though still not particularly strong, will
follow for later Tuesday into Wednesday. Again, model spread is
fairly large and actually the consensus has shifted a touch
colder/farther south with the system. There is still hope for mainly
snow rather than rain as probabilities are roughly equal for much of
the region. That being said, a primary low pressure system tracking
to our northwest still is most likely, which would lead to a wintry
mix of precipitation types. Obviously the track of this system will
ultimately determine the precipitation details, but amounts should
be light to moderate, associated with a system of Pacific origin
that does not tap into additional moisture from the Gulf or
Atlantic. 90th percentile NBM QMD data shows reasonable higher end
totals only about 0.3-0.5", but since even light snow and ice could
be meaningful for the Wednesday morning commute timeframe, this will
be a period to watch.
Then to end the week, large scale signals for hydrological impacts,
in a combination of snow melt and rainfall, are present but not
particularly impressive - we aren`t looking at a high end event at
this time. The timeframe begins next Friday but should continue into
the weekend as flow finally amplifies, with a large ridge developing
over the eastern US. Generally, precipitation chances for Friday are
lower than for the midweek system, but among the ensemble
members/model output that show rainfall, heavier precipitation is
favored for at least portions of the region. A more meridional flow
pattern will support a moist environment; per latest NAEFS mean
climatological percentiles, unseasonably high values of PWAT,
southwesterly oriented integrated vapor transport (IVT), and
specific humidity up to the 500 millibar level, can be expected. The
aforementioned 90th percentile data shows a maximum 24 hour period
with precipitation amounts mainly in the 0.5-1" range, with wettest
guidance in the 1.5"-2" range (about twice that of the midweek
event). As an example of the possible river responses, the latest
run of the GEFS for Center Rutland shows a large range, but the
median forecast depicts a sharp rise beginning Friday morning. The
statistics suggest a categorical low chance of reaching action stage
on Friday, but continued rises over the weekend lead to a 50% chance
of reaching action stage during the period, along with less than 5%
chance of reaching minor flood stage.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions are in place with light west
to southwest winds and weak high pressure. Scattered to increasingly
broken deck about 4000 to 7000 feet is becoming more common this
afternoon and a subtle shift to northwesterly winds has already
begun. While high pressure will largely continue, a subtle,
moisture- starved front will continue to sink southward through
the evening. It should cause winds to become more consistently
northerly/northwesterly through overnight and through the
remainder of the period, but mixing will tend to be limited such
that winds remain light. There likely will be enough moisture
available for a period of light snow, especially at SLK and EFK
and less likely at sites like BTV, PBG, and MPV. Greatest
chances of MVFR conditions would be between 03Z and 07Z
associated with the clouds and light snow. The increased winds
aloft associated with the front, while not enough to be
concerned with LLWS, should also prevent any fog formation.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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