753
FXUS61 KBTV 281112
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
712 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into our area today with clearing
skies and near normal temperatures. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 20s to upper 30s with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s on
Tuesday. A large system will impact the area Thursday into
Friday with widespread rainfall, gusty winds, and cooler
temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM EDT Tuesday...A closed circulation off the Canadian
Maritimes continues to drift eastward this morning, though residual
moisture on the GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor has kept some clouds
over the northern portions of the region. These clouds have
prevented for the most part, the best radiative cooling from
occurring keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Where cloud
cover has generally been limited in the St. Lawrence Valley, cold
drainage winds have led to temperatures near 30. By morning any
remaining clouds should scour out as much more dry air entrains from
the northwest as a strong area of high pressure continues to build
in. A 1035mb high sitting to our north over Quebec will bring quiet
and mainly calm conditions with strong subsidence overhead. 925mb
temperatures show 2-4C, supporting highs today in the upper 40s to
mid 50s, with lower temperatures in the higher terrain. Sunshine and
light northwest winds will be the name of the game, with a few
breezes to 15 mph in northern New York.
Clearing skies will continue tonight with temperatures expected to
efficiently radiative cool. Lows should be able to dip into the low
20s to near 30. With the high in place, model soundings show a stark
inversion present with light winds. Fog development chances look
better tonight as temperatures confidently look to reach cross over
values. Given temperatures in the cooler hollows and higher terrain
will be near freezing, some freezing fog cannot be rules out.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 210 AM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday will largely be a repeat of
Today, but with lighter winds, and little to no gusts. The 1035mb
high will crest over the region with continued drying of the mid to
upper levels, and subsequently by Wednesday afternoon the lower
levels. Relative humidity values will lower into the 40-50% range.
Highs Wednesday look to generally be in the low 50s. By the evening,
cloud cover will increase with the approach of our next system. An
occluding low from the deep south, will ride up through the Mid
Atlantic into our next of the woods heading into Thursday. Consensus
modeling has come into better agreement of a system occluding into
the region, however, the timing, and exact amounts are still being
refined with newer model guidance. Overall, precipitation chances
should increase from south to north early Thursday morning, and
increase into the day Thursday (60-80%). Overnight lows Wednesday
night will be dependent on cloud cover thickness, but generally in
the mid 30s in Vermont, with upper 20s to low 30s in northern New
York where clouds should arrival later. With the onset of
precipitation, temperatures in the higher terrain will still be
hovering around freezing given the overnight arrival. As such, a few
flakes mixed in with rain is possible, particularly along the
southern Greens and Northeast Kingdom in southern Caledonia and
northern Orange Counties in Vermont. As the system evolves, models
indicate that we have a situation where the cold front advects
moisture into Vermont, with more scattered precipitation over time
in northern New York with a potential dry slot setting up. A typical
pattern with recent storms of the same track. Winds in southern
Vermont and the downslope areas of the northern Adirondacks, will
gradually increase as a strong LLJ pushes northward in
association with the occluding low. Gusts up to 25 mph on the
higher slopes, with 10 to 20 mph in the valleys, will be
possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 AM EDT Tuesday...Confidence continues to grow that we`ll
see a widespread soaking rain late week and into the weekend.
There`ll be an amplified pattern across the eastern CONUS as an
upper trough lifts into the Great Lakes and high pressure shifts
eastward into the Atlantic. Rain will continue to spread northward
Thursday night and Friday as an occluding warm front, stretching
eastward from its parent low over the eastern Great Lakes, lifts
northward toward the Canadian border. Ample moisture will stream
northward as flow turns to the south/southeast behind the front.
There are some indications that, although Melissa is expected to
remain well off the East Coast, some of its tropical moisture will
be pulled toward the New England Coast Thursday night into Friday.
While the best moisture still looks to mainly be to our south and
east, PWATs will approach and/or exceed 1 inch across our region.
Ample forcing and upper level support will combine with this
increasing moisture to allow the rain to be moderate to heavy at
times, particularly Thursday night into early Friday morning when
probs of 6-hrly rainfall amounts of a half inch or more are 25-40%.
The low and its frontal boundary will quickly occlude and push
eastward Friday and Friday night, and are expected to cross through
New Brunswick by early Saturday morning. Winds will shift to the
west/northwest and become gusty as cold air advection enhances
mixing. Gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be possible Friday and Saturday.
Steady rain Friday morning will transition to wrap-around showers as
winds turn to the west/northwest during the afternoon hours. While
moisture will wane a bit, wrap around and upslope showers will
likely persist through at least the first half of the weekend. Note
that probabilities of 48-hr rainfall totals in excess of 1.50 inches
from Thursday morning to Saturday morning are generally 40-60%, so
hopefully this will provide some needed relief from ongoing drought
conditions. Snow levels look to lower to around 2500 ft Friday
night, perhaps even lower on Saturday night, so some of the higher
elevation towns/villages could see some light snow accumulations
when the sun rises Sunday morning. After a relatively warm day on
Friday (highs mainly in the 50s), the weekend will be quite chilly
with daytime highs only in the 40s to around 50F both Saturday and
Sunday, while nights will drop down into mid 20s to mid 30s. After
mainly dry weather Sunday into early Monday, precipitation chances
increase once again.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12z Wednesday...VFR conditions generally expected to
prevail through much of the forecast period. The remnants of a
stratus deck around 2500-3500 ft continue to dissipate this
morning, along with patchy valley fog. Outside of any brief
local effects from the above, expect VFR to prevail through the
TAF period. Another round of patchy valley fog is possible again
late tonight/early Wednesday, mainly at KSLK/KMPV/KMSS/KEFK, but
have stayed with 3sm and FEW002 at all terminals due to
uncertainty. Best chance for fog would be after 08z Wed. Light
north to northeast winds will continue for a couple of hours
this morning, then N/NE wind increase back into the 5 to 10
knot range, with gusts up to 20 kt at MSS especially from about
15Z to 21Z.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
RA.
Friday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA.
Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...BTV
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