468
FXUS61 KBTV 200723
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
323 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm daytime temperatures are expected to prevail today
into the upcoming work week with highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s with lows ranging from the mid 30s to upper 40s. The next
chance for showers arrives with a cold front late Wednesday into
Thursday, along with a period of breezy conditions. Cooler
temperatures are anticipated for Thursday and Friday with some
lingering showers possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 308 AM EDT Sunday...Upper air analysis shows axis of
mid/upper lvl ridge being suppressed southward toward the Ohio
Valley, while ribbon of stronger 850mb to 500mb westerly winds
are near our International Border area. These winds are helping
to advect an axis of better mid lvl moisture into our cwa this
morning, which wl result in some mid/upper lvl clouds. After
some patchy frost and a wide elevational dependent temp profile
this morning associated with sharp inversion, expect better
mixing to develop this aftn as sfc gradient increases. As mixing
improves localized gusts 20 to 25 mph wl be possible
SLV/northern downslope areas of the Dacks with 15 to 20 mph CPV
and parts of the western slopes. Progged 925mb temps are in the
12 to 14C range, supporting highs mid 60s to lower 70s. Did note
rh values near critical thresholds yesterday acrs our valleys
and thinking similar type scenario this aftn with min rh`s in
the 28 to 35% range, associated with drier air aloft mixing
toward the sfc and lower dwpts. Tonight weak sfc ridge rebuilds
acrs our cwa with light bl flow, but still noting some slightly
stronger 925mb to 850mb winds of 10 to 25 knots acrs our
northern cwa. Once again a sharp thermal inversion is
anticipated with large variation in temps based on elevation.
Lows generally mid 30s to lower 50s depending upon elevation and
location. For Monday, very little change noted in thermal or
moisture profiles as ridge remains anchored to our south.
Progged 925mb temps warm another degree or two with values
12-14C, supporting highs upper 60s to mid 70s. Once again drier
air aloft wl mix to the sfc supporting min rh`s in the aftn
hours in the 27 to 35% range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 308 AM EDT Sunday...Upper level trof will have passed by this
time period (Monday night) with a washed up front along our forecast
area. Gradient associated with both slackens during this time as
surface ridging once again builds into the area.
Tuesday will feature ridging at all levels with the axis of the
surface ridge sliding east for a return SSW flow allowing
temperatures to be the warmest of this stretch with highs in
the L-M70s for many.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 308 AM EDT Sunday...Combination of departing surface high and
approaching mid-level shortwave and surface cold front will increase
surface gradient again Tuesday night and especially Wed. Model
consensus timing is short wave and strong cold front to move across
the region Wed ngt likely exiting CWA by 12z Thu. Clouds will be
increasing Wed but it should remain dry for the daylight hours, thus
another mild day but clouds may just keep temps a few degs cooler
than Tuesday.
On Thursday...perhaps some leftover Mountain showers in the morning
with strong, breezy CAA and intitial instability but eventually
drier air on zonal, WNW flow and surface ridge building again should
bring drier and much cooler conditions.
Core of the cold air with this front will be across the region Thu
ngt-Fri as surface high builds with lows in the 20s-30s and highs
only in the 40s-L50s but then upper level ridging and modifying
airmass likely for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Aviation challenge tonight is fog and
potential IFR at SLK/MPV. Based on last night obs and increasing
winds between 200-500 feet above ground level of 12 to 18 knots,
thinking probability of fog is <30%. However, have noted both
locations have decoupled, allowing temps to already reach cross
over values, so a brief window near sunrise is possible at both
sites. Otherwise, VFR prevails with increasing south/southwest
winds 10-15 knots after 15Z with some potential for wind shear
toward sunset.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Taber
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