000
FXUS61 KBTV 240546
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
146 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue this evening before rain moves back into
the region tonight and Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front.
Temperatures will drop throughout the day on Wednesday, and a brief
period of snow is possible as precipitation tapers off. Only minor
accumulations of snow are expected given a period of warm
temperatures ahead of the falling snow. After one cool day on
Thursday, conditions will begin to warm and become above normal for
the new work week. Another interval of sharp drying takes place
Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will return later Saturday into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Wednesday...Some showers ahead of the
descending frontal boundary are streaming northeast across the
region. Dry air has been scattered out of northern New York, and
we should see rain increase over the region as radar showers
rain expanding into the area. Reflectivity across Vermont is
mostly evaporating against 25 degree dewpoint depressions still.
Much of the forecast is in solid conditions and made mostly
minor tweaks.

Previous Discussion...Dry conditions persist across the region
this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed well into the 60s under
bright sunshine and ample mixing. Mixing has been deeper than
anticipated, which has also allowed dewpoints to lower into the
low/mid 20s to around 30F. The result is relative humidity
values in the 20 to 30% range in many spots. The deep mixing has
also made for gusty south winds, particularly in the Champlain
Valley and the northern slopes of the Adirondacks into the St
Lawrence Valley, where gusts of 30-35 mph have been recorded.
These conditions will continue into the late afternoon/early
evening, though moisture will gradually be increasing ahead of
our next system. Winds will abate as the sunsets, though will
still remain gusty to 20-25 mph or so. See the Fire Weather
section below or our Special Weather Statement issued earlier
today for additional details.

After today`s fire weather concerns, the focus turns toward a strong
cold front which will cross the region on Wednesday. Showers
associated with moisture streaming out ahead of this front are
already approaching our region from the west, and will overspread
the region overnight tonight. It will take a little while for lower
levels to saturate, so radar may look a little more threatening than
what is actually occurring early in the evening. However, expect
just about everyone to get in on the rain by daybreak Wednesday,
with the bulk falling from the Champlain Valley westward.
Temperatures will fall into the 40s overnight, with some upper 30s
sneaking into the St Lawrence Valley as the front starts to move
into the region.

The front will push through quickly during the day on Wednesday,
ushering in a cold and dry airmass. Temperatures will likely fall
quite sharply as the front moves through, perhaps as much as 5-10
degrees in just an hour or two. Hence rain will at least mix with
snow as temperatures plummet into the mid/upper 30s, with higher
elevations likely seeing at least a brief period of all snow. Ground
surfaces will be warm, so while snow could come down hard enough to
accumulate briefly, it will likely quickly melt, especially paved
surfaces. Drier air will rapidly follow the frontal passage, which
quickly ending precipitation from west to east as temperatures cool.
So any period of snow should be fairly short-lived as well, as
precipitation should end by sunset or so. So the period of snow or
rain/snow mix will be short, and this with warm surface temperatures
will keep any accumulation that does occur minimal, with most spots
seeing only a half inch or less, if they get any real accumulation
at all. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest behind the
front as well, and could see some gusts of 30+ mph with or just
behind the front.

Skies will clear quickly Wednesday evening as much drier air works
into the region. Dewpoints will drop into the teens and even single
digits overnight, and winds will become light as ridging builds into
the region. So looking at a good radiational cooling night, with
lows anticipated to range from the upper teens in the Adirondacks
and Northeast Kingdom to the mid 20s in the Champlain and St
Lawrence Valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 PM EDT Tuesday...Another seasonably cool day can be
expected Thursday, with highs only in the upper 40s to around 50.
Despite the cold temperatures however, we`ll see plenty of sun as
the center of a surface anticyclone shifts nearer. Winds will be
generally 5-10 mph from the northwest, becoming light and variable
overnight once the center of the high crests overhead. Have hedged
towards the lower side of guidance for overnight lows for Thursday
night with light winds and clear skies...ideal radiational cooling
conditions. Lows will be in the 20s for most of the area, which is a
good 10 degrees below normal values for this time of year. Given
that the growing season has not yet begun anywhere in our forecast
area, no frost/freeze headlines needed, but early gardeners
with vulnerable outdoor plants should take precautions to
protect against a potential frost/freeze Thursday night.
Temperatures are forecast to dip into the low to mid 20s for the
northern Adirondacks and eastern Vermont, and drop to the upper
20s to around 30 in the valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 328 PM EDT Tuesday...Friday will be a beautiful day with
noticeably warmer temperatures and sunny skies. Temperatures will
start off quite chilly in the morning, but will quickly climb into
the 50s/low 60s for afternoon highs. Minimum relative humidities
will drop to around 30 to 40 percent by Friday afternoon, but light
winds will mitigate any fire weather concerns.

The warming trend will continue into the weekend as return southerly
flow develops and increases. At this point, Saturday morning looks
dry with an upper-level ridge cresting overhead. Southerly winds
will begin to increase during the day Saturday along with increasing
cloud cover as the ridge shifts east and shortwave energy
approaches from the west. Expect chances for showers to increase
as we head into the evening as the ridge flattens and upper-
level shortwaves roll overtop the ridge. It`s too early to get
too specific with the timing of the shortwaves and the
associated rainfall going into early next week, but at least
some showers can be expected Sunday through Wednesday. Have
stayed close to NBM for precipitation forecast. Given the
showery conditions early next week, fire weather concerns are
low from Sunday onward. As temperatures climb into the low 70s
early next week, will see the development of some instability
during the afternoons, and can`t rule out some isolated rumbles
of thunder.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Conditions are mostly VFR at this time,
with 2300 ft agl ceilings at KSLK alone at this time. Showers
are streaming ahead of a frontal boundary just northwest of
Ottawa, and we should see coverage expand over the next few
hours. Ahead of it, fast south to southwest flow aloft remains,
and noted LLWS at KMPV and KRUT through 11z, but intervals of
it may be possible at KPBG and KEFK as well. Anticipate most of
the prevailing reductions to ceilings and visibility to be
closely tied to the frontal boundary and its associated wind
shift. Most areas should remain MVFR, but KSLK, KBTV, and KEFK
may see brief IFR ceilings in the northwest flow. It will reach
KMSS about 10z, KPBG and KBTV about 14-15z, and KRUT, KMPV, and
KEFK about 16-17z. The wind shift will be a sharp transition
from southwest to northwest winds. At KSLK and KEFK, conditions
are most likely to become cold enough for brief snow about 14z
to 16z and 16z to 19z respectively. Behind the front, conditions
rapidly improve, and most locations should trend to clear skies
about 00z. Northwest winds behind the front will be 8 to 14
knots sustained and gusting 18 to 25 knots, and slowly subside
after 00z.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Hastings/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...Haynes