495
FXUS61 KBTV 072004
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
404 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will finally exit the region tonight as a
cold front pushes through. Cooler and drier conditions will
arrive for Thursday with temperatures tomorrow and into the
weekend in the 50s and 60s. Additional rainfall will develop
early Friday into Saturday, especially in southern and eastern
Vermont. Rainfall between 1 to 2 inches is possible. Next week
looks to start off dry with temperatures warming into the 70s to
near 80.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 PM EDT Wednesday...An upper level low continues to
spin and move eastward across the region. Temperatures across
the region are generally in the low to mid 60s, with lower
temperatures where rain is falling. The main area of
precipitation this morning has moved into New Hampshire, with
just some lingering light to moderate showers underneath the
center of the low areawide. These showers should taper off
quickly in the next hour or so, with possibly some peaks of sun
to end the day. Wrap around moisture in the St. Lawrence will
continue to move into the Adirondacks, but should taper off by
this evening as forcing and the axis of deformation weakens.
Gusty southerly winds in eastern Vermont will become calm this
evening and changeover to more light northerly winds as the low
pivots to the east. By sunset, a cold front will push into the
area bringing seasonably cooler air for tomorrow. Temperatures
tonight will fall into the mid to upper 40s in the valleys and
near 40 in the higher terrain. Additional light showers may
accompany the front overnight, particularly in northern Vermont.
By Thursday, the cold front stalls out to the south of the area
across southern New England with cooler and drier air behind. A
sharp trough will dig in across the area keeping clouds in the
area. Daytime minimum relative humidities will be near 45-55%,
especially in the valleys. Temperatures will be fairly uniform
across the region with values in the mid 50s, but where some
peaks of sun are possible in southern Vermont, values may reach
near 60. Most of the area tomorrow should see the better portion
of the day be rain free, a welcome break from the last few
days. However, near the stalled boundary, Rutland and Windsor
Counties will see precipitation return Thursday
afternoon/evening as a moisture axis looks to redevelop. Rain
will become more steady by Thursday night with precipitation
amounts between 0.1 to 0.5 inches by Friday morning across
central and southern Vermont. Temperatures Thursday night will
be in the low to mid 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 PM EDT Wednesday...Confidence conts to increase for a
widespread wetting rainfall from the Eastern Dacks into all of
VT. Guidance conts to become in better agreement with evolution
of mid/upper lvl trof and associated sfc low pres track. Still
some disagreement on north extent of heaviest qpf and how fast
the system pulls away on Saturday. For Friday into Friday night
have increased pops to 100% for central/eastern and southern VT
zones which taper off to chc for SLV. The latest NBM shows 40 to
60% probability of qpf >0.50" acrs most of VT, but less than
30% for qpf amounts >1.0" with highest probabilities over
Rutland/Windsor counties. The NBM qpf mean shows 1.1" at VSF,
0.75" at BTV, and just 0.25" at MSS, which highlights the
potential SE to NW qpf gradient expected acrs our cwa. For event
total qpf we have 0.10 to 0.25" SLV to 1.0 to 1.75"
Rutland/Windsor counties, which could increase further as
confidence in heaviest qpf axis increases. Given the deepening
and closing off 7h/5h circulation and associated track acrs
eastern PA into SNE, I feel measurable precip is likely acrs a
majority of our region during this time frame. Also, the
combination of northerly flow and plenty of clouds/precip, have
trended high temps toward the cooler MAV guidance/10th
percentile, supporting highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s, except
upper 50s SLV. We wl continue to monitor hydro trends, the lack
of instability should limit rainfall rates and minimize the
potential for flash flooding, but sharp rises on streams and
rivers are likely by Saturday acrs central/eastern and southern
VT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 403 PM EDT Wednesday...12z guidance and associated
ensemble members continue to come into better agreement with
deep cyclonic circulation and tracking of sfc reflection from
near NYC to the Gulf of Maine. This places our cwa in the
favorable mid lvl deformation zone on Saturday with developing
upslope flow. Based on this and potential for deeply closed
system to move slower than progged, have continued with high
likely pops for VT thru 18z, before tapering off to schc/chc
after 18z. Highest additional qpf wl be acrs the eastern
CPV/western Slopes and acrs most of central/northern VT,
including the NEK. Temps are tricky as clearing late in the day,
could result in temps popping into the lower 60s, so have kept
close to NBM for now. If clearing is delayed and precip lingers
with northerly flow, highs wl be 3 to 5 degrees lower,
especially central/northern VT mtns.
Mid/upper lvl trof departs the ne conus by Sunday with building
heights and improving conditions for Sunday into early next week. We
wl be watching a potential backdoor cold frnt approaching our ne
sections and associated axis of mid lvl moisture/fgen for some
clouds and scattered showers late Monday into Tues. For now, this
scenario has low predictability given the complex upper lvls and
associated sfc pattern. We have a dry fcst attm with temps warming
back into the 70s to a few lower 80s possible in the warmer valleys
by midweek as progged 925mb temps warm btwn 16-18C. Also, have to
watch meandering closed cyclonic circulation of the MS/OH Valley
region for Tues/Weds, but latest trends keeps the deeper moisture
just to our south.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Mostly VFR across the area with scattered
showers in Vermont. An upper low is currently sliding across
Vermont with occasional southerly gusts at BTV/MPV/EFK up to 20
knots possible. Winds will become more variable and calm over
the next hour or so at 5-10 knots and changeover to
predominately west/northwesterly by 00Z. By 00Z, a surface
boundary will traverse the area with occasional light showers,
some showers may be moderate at times with 4SM visibilities.
Once the surface boundary passes by 02-03Z across the region,
ceilings will fall to 2000-3000 ft agl as an inversion sets in
overnight. Guidance has been hinting at IFR possibilities at
BTV/MPV/RUT/SLK between 03-12Z, however northwest winds and the
climo probabilities of IFR in general have led confidence to be
more MVFR in this TAF. The highest confidence of any IFR tonight
is at SLK. Given the uncertainty of IFR tonight, trended
ceilings towards 1000-2000 ft agl. By 12Z, ceilings areawide
look to remain MVFR, with IFR at SLK, through the remainder of
the TAF period, and more northerly winds as a trough digs in.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Danzig
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