480
FXUS61 KBTV 112302
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
702 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool, dry conditions are expected tonight with potential for valley
fog under high pressure and behind the passage of a cold front.
Temperatures in the 30s in the Northeast Kingdom may result in frost
formation. An upper level disturbance will bring some cloud cover
across the region Saturday and Saturday night. Even then, rain
appears likely to be hit or miss and unlikely to bring needed rain.
Dry conditions will prevail for the remainder of the period with
warming temperatures for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 123 PM EDT Thursday...High pressure building in behind today`s
cold front will continue dry and cool conditions tonight. As skies
clear, we`ll see a quick drop in temperatures below seasonal
averages due to radiational cooling, and lows are forecast to be in
the 30s and 40s. Coldest temperatures will be across the Northeast
Kingdom and localized parts of the Adirondacks where some frost may
develop early tomorrow morning. Patchy valley fog is also possible
again tonight, though being another day removed from rain will limit
the potential slightly. Best time for fog development will be close
to dawn tomorrow morning as high pressure builds in from the north
and winds aloft calm.
High pressure will persist tomorrow, resulting in light and variable
winds and highs struggling to reach the upper 60s to mid 70s despite
plenty of sunshine. Dry air at mid levels is expected to mix down to
the surface in the afternoon, producing dry dew points in the 40s.
High clouds will likely increase later tomorrow into Friday night as
an upper level shortwave crosses the region, but surface high
pressure is expected to keep weather dry and quiet with perhaps some
virga. The extra cloud cover will keep lows in the upper 30s to
lower 50s, warmer than previous nights but still slightly below
seasonal normals. Patchy valley fog is possible again Friday night,
mainly for the Connecticut River Valley as it sits farthest east
from the approaching cloud layer.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 123 PM EDT Thursday...An open wave surface trough is likely to
approach the forecast area on Saturday, bringing increased clouds
and a slight chance of precipitation (10-30%) to northern New York
and the Green Mountains by the end of the day. Deterministic models
continue to diverge on the timing and location of atmospheric
features that will determine the weather Saturday, but the current
trend and forecast thinking is that we`ll be mostly dry Saturday
with a few showers and virga here and there, and temperatures will
be able to climb into a seasonable lower and mid 70s.
Saturday night continues to host a variety of solutions as the GFS
and Canadian models hold onto surface high pressure longer while the
ECMWF and high resolution models want to swing a surface frontal
system through the region, bringing showery precipitation. Kept
chances for measurable precipitation at 10-40% throughout the night
as we could see a few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm
associated with this feature, modest moisture, and northwesterly
flow, but confidence of widespread wetting rainfall is low. Low
temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s Saturday
night, which is right around seasonable for mid September.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 136 PM EDT Thursday...An extended period of dry weather can be
expected across the region as we head into next week. A few
lingering chances for showers may be possible during the day Sunday,
but guidance continues to trend drier with no meaningful
precipitation expected. As we head into next week, surface high
pressure and upper level ridging look to build back into the region,
with dry conditions persisting. Temperatures look to be rather
seasonable Sunday into the beginning of next week, with highs in the
low to mid 70s, but a warming temperature trend is expected towards
mid weeks with highs climbing towards the upper 70s. Overnight lows
during this period mainly look to stay in the mid 40s and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...A weak surface cold front continues to
drop across our TAF sites this evening with minimal fan fair,
other than a wind shift and a few mid level clouds. Once again
the challenging part of the aviation forecast in the next 6 to
12 hours is the fog potential and areal coverage. Slightly
elevated northerly winds at 5 to 15 knots 200 to 300 feet agl
should limit fog production until after 06z. Thinking MPV/SLK
have the greatest probability of fog btwn 07-12z, with 30 to 40%
chance at EFK for a few hours around sunrise on Friday. Have
utilized a tempo group to cover this potential with prevailing
LIFR at MPV/SLK. Otherwise, VFR with winds becoming light
north/northeast at 3 to 6 knots thru the period.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for VTZ004.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber
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