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FXUS61 KBTV 200236
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1036 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High temperatures will trend warmer each day through Tuesday
with high pressure centered over the North Country. Patchy frost
will be possible again tonight, but overnight temperatures
should gradually warm over the next few days thereafter. Sunday
will be breezy, especially across northern New York, but winds
should be light overall as well, resulting in very pleasant
conditions. Our next chance of rain doesn`t arrive until late
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1031 PM EDT Saturday...Have increased cloud cover a bit
towards early Sunday morning as we should have a band of high
clouds move across our area. Also bumped up minimum temperatures
slightly. Minimum temperatures should range from the low 30s in
the Adirondacks and colder hollows of eastern Vermont to lower
40s in the St Lawrence valley and close to Lake Champlain.
Should see less fog formation than the previous couple
overnights. Previous discussion follows.

The weather is nothing short of perfect. We`re in the 60s, the
winds are light, the Sun is out, and the fall foliage remains
beautiful. Dry weather will ensure efficient radiation for most,
but winds will increase at 500-1000 foot elevation over
northern New York and southerly channeled flow into the
Champlain Valley may start to inhibit cooling in unsheltered
areas. The St. Lawrence Valley will be warmest, with upper 30s
to lower 40s. The Champlain Valley is a bit of a question mark,
with forecast soundings showing varying degrees of stability or
decoupling at the lower levels. Most recent LAV runs are
depicting mid 40s in the Champlain Valley. Presently, mid 30s to
near 40 is shown the Champlain Valley, which is near the NBM
10th percentile. Sheltered locations of the Adirondacks and
Vermont should still fall into the upper 20s to around freezing.
There should be some frost, but it will be more localized as a
result, along with some bust potential. Given how marginal frost
conditions will be compared to the last three nights, we have
elected to not post Frost Advisories. However, frost will be
depicted on the public forecasts, and if you still have tender
plants outside, consider taking care of them for the night.

Sunday will be another beautiful day. A trough passing well to
our north and increasing thermal gradients will be enough to
cause winds to pick up during the afternoon. Winds at 925mb will
increase towards 35 knots, but the inversion layer will be
there as opposed to ridge tops and wind shear is not
unidirectional. So the potential for stronger gusts mixing down
isn`t very high overall. There could be some 25 to 30 mph gusts
in the northern St. Lawrence Valley and through Malone and
Ellenburg Depot, but the rest of the region will mainly stick to
5 to 10 mph southwest winds. We should be a couple degrees
warmer tomorrow as compared to today. So this will mean mid 60s
to lower 70s. Southwest flow remains in place overnight, which
will keep overnight lows much warmer. Relative humidity values
will also be dry with minimum readings of 30 to 35 percent
likely. It still appears eastern Vermont will remain sheltered
from this and fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s. For the rest
of the region, expect mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EDT Saturday...A passing trough in northern Canada
will compound the pressure gradient across the North Country
early Monday allowing for an continued southwesterly breezes
with gusts ranging 10-15 mph in general. Like the previous
forecast noted, 13-16C 925mb temperatures will favor continued
warming coupled with a little mixing pushing temperatures well
above seasonal average into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Aside from
some breezes, a few fair weather cumulus clouds, and
unseasonably warm temperatures, there will be very little in the
way of sensible weather. Overnight, the gradient begins to
relax with temperatures cooling mainly into the 40s to around 50
degrees, much warmer than previous nights due to continued
breezes during the first portion of the overnight period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 323 PM EDT Saturday...Models continue to favor a sharp
frontal system to approach the region midweek. This amplifying
pattern supports increasing winds Tuesday into Wednesday with
some gusts 20-30 mph and warm air advection/downsloping
contributing to even warmer temperatures in the 70s for most
locations, upper 70s for lower valleys where compressional
warming maximizes. Cloud cover increases Wednesday with
precipitation chances possibly beginning Wednesday afternoon - a
little sooner than previous model consensus. Passage is still
expected Wednesday night with shower chances decreasing through
Thursday. Notable model signatures for a rapid cool down are
present, suggesting continued vigilance concerning wind
potential along the frontal boundary given the strength of the
projected thermal gradient. Highs in the 40s and low 50s are
anticipated Thursday/Friday which are below seasonal averages.
Guidance favors returning migratory ridging heading into the
weekend with some warming to around seasonal averages favored.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Winds become light overnight, although
will increase to 15 to 20 knots around 500 ft agl over northern
New York and much of Vermont. Think that we could see some brief
fog at MSS and SLK, but should not be for as long as last
night. Wind speeds pick up to 7 to 10 knots from 15-18z Sunday
from the south or southwest, but will be southeast at KPBG. Will
have some high clouds move across the area Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Haynes/Neiles