967
FXUS61 KBTV 071755
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
155 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
One more humid day with scattered showers is expected for today
ahead of a cold front that will shift southeast overnight into
Thursday. Temperatures will become cooler with daytime conditions in
the upper 50s to mid 60s. Additional rainfall will develop Friday
into Saturday, especially across eastern Vermont. The new week will
open up with dry conditions and temperatures climbing into the 70s
to near 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 139 PM EDT Wednesday...The upper low has shifted into the
Champlain Valley with a line of showers across the Northeast
Kingdom. SBCAPE values around 500 J/kg have proved enough for
some isolated rumbles of thunder across parts of Caledonia and
Essex Counties in Vermont. Under the low, occasional gusty winds
are possible, but should become calm once winds changeover to
the northwest in the next few hours. No major changes to the
immediate near term in this update. Previous discussion
follows...

Sun is rising on our upper low now in our forecast area. It`s
generating a batch of moderate showers in the Adirondacks with
most of the associated precipitation still off to our southwest.
Despite some low-level flow at 500-2000 ft agl, some fog has
managed to develop in parts of eastern Vermont, but should
quickly lift with good sunshine to start the day. Mid to late
afternoon, the upper low will begin to move east of Vermont.
Weak instability with tall, very skinny CAPE will yield about
250 J/kg of CAPE over Vermont with little in the way of
instability over northern New York. HREF depictions signal
south- central and the Northeast Kingdom to feature the most
widespread convective coverage, but little suggesting heavy
rainfall rates. Another somewhat above normal day in the mid 60s
to lower 70s is expected. So, outside showers, it will be
another pleasant spring day!

For tonight, periodic isolated to scattered showers will continue as
a sharp frontal boundary slides southeast. As per usual, it`s a
piecemeal front and models have noticeably slowed the second piece
of it, which will unfortunately set the stage for another wet
Saturday. The first piece arriving about sunset is fairly strong
with scattered rain. The second piece is fairly weak with marginal
moisture, and so a spot shower is possible as it slides through
Thursday morning. It will have cooler air behind it, but will
struggle making it south of the Connecticut River Valley.
Springfield could make a run for 70 again, but the rest of
Vermont and northern New York will linger in the mid 50s to
lower 60s for the day. Late Thursday evening, moisture will
begin to move parallel to that boundary. Rain will begin to
develop across southern Vermont and slowly edge north beyond
Thursday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Wednesday...Chances for rain showers ramp back up
again Thursday night with an upper-level shortwave trough forecast
to close off into another closed low. By Friday morning, the center
of the low will be over western NY, then will slowly meander to
eastern NY State by Friday evening. A surface coastal low will
develop off the New Jersey/Long Island coast late Friday, poised to
track northeastward over the weekend. Low-level easterly onshore
flow north of the low along with favorable jet placement and mid-
level height falls will all promote showers throughout the day on
Friday, especially over Vermont. Portions of NY including the Saint
Lawrence Valley may escape any shower activity, while the heaviest
QPF is expected over southern VT (0.5-0.8 inch, with locally higher
amounts possible). Highs Friday will be in the 50s for most
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Wednesday...Friday night will be wet for much of
Vermont, but the timing of the departure of the low and thus the end
time of the rain on Saturday remains murky as models struggle to
come to a consensus. The deterministic ECMWF has held the
steadiest, keeping rain in place for our eastern counties for the
first half of Saturday before trending drier going into the evening.
Meanwhile, the deterministic GFS has shown very little consistency
with regards to the Saturday forecast. Have thus trended the
forecast slightly on the wetter side than the National Blend
depicts, closer to the more consistent ECMWF solution.

High pressure will build in Sunday, staying in control through
midday Tuesday. This will be welcome news for those looking for a
break in the showers, with at least a few days of dry weather to
look forward to. In addition to the dry weather, temperatures will
warm to well above normal going into midweek. By Monday/Tuesday,
expect highs in the 70s areawide. In the overnights, most areas
will remain warm enough to avoid any frost.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Mostly VFR across the area with scattered
showers in Vermont. An upper low is currently sliding across
Vermont with occasional southerly gusts at BTV/MPV/EFK up to 20
knots possible. Winds will become more variable and calm over
the next hour or so at 5-10 knots and changeover to
predominately west/northwesterly by 00Z. By 00Z, a surface
boundary will traverse the area with occasional light showers,
some showers may be moderate at times with 4SM visibilities.
Once the surface boundary passes by 02-03Z across the region,
ceilings will fall to 2000-3000 ft agl as an inversion sets in
overnight. Guidance has been hinting at IFR possibilities at
BTV/MPV/RUT/SLK between 03-12Z, however northwest winds and the
climo probabilities of IFR in general have led confidence to be
more MVFR in this TAF. The highest confidence of any IFR tonight
is at SLK. Given the uncertainty of IFR tonight, trended
ceilings towards 1000-2000 ft agl. By 12Z, ceilings areawide
look to remain MVFR, with IFR at SLK, through the remainder of
the TAF period, and more northerly winds as a trough digs in.



Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig/Haynes
NEAR TERM...Danzig/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...Danzig