000
FXUS61 KBTV 240230
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1030 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather will continue through the weekend with scattered to
overcast highs clouds associated with Tropical Storm Ophelia as it
moves northward into the Mid Atlantic. No precipitation is expected
from this system across the North Country, with very low chances for
showers in southern Vermont. Much of next week is expected to be dry
with near normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

High clouds from Ophelia continue to be draped across our
region, with the exception being towards Rutland where clouds
are lower at around 10000 ft. Slightly trimmed the hourly PoPs
based on latest trends, with light showers mainly confined to
south of our CWA. Otherwise, forecast remains largely on track.
Have a great evening!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Quiet weather is expected over the next 36 hours with no
impacts from Tropical Storm Ophelia, except for less than ideal
solar generation due to mid/high cloud cover. Outer bands of
precipitation from Ophelia continue to run into a very dry
airmass over the North Country and Vermont where dewpoint
depressions this afternoon range from 10-15 degrees at the
surface. And while some lowering of ceiling heights and
increased surface moisture is expected overnight through Sunday
across central/southern zones, the probability of any
appreciable rain is very low. Will continue to offer some 10-20%
PoPs across central/southern VT this evening through Sunday,
zero north, but overall if anything falls it will likely just be
sprinkles. Otherwise, scattered to broken mid/high clouds will
persist across the region through Sunday, before clearing from
northwest to southeast Sunday night. Fog will be likely once
again across portions of northern New York tonight, less so
across VT because of the cloud cover. Lows tonight and Sunday
night will be similar to last night in the 40s to low 50s, and
highs Sunday will be similar to today in the low 70s north to
mid 60s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 254 PM EDT Saturday...Monday will be the start of a prolonged
dry spell as moisture associated with Ophelia`s remnants gets
shunted away to the south. Some fair weather cumulus may develop
over the higher terrain in the afternoon, but overall expect ample
sunshine. Winds will be a touch on the brisk side, blowing from the
north/northeast at 5 to 10 mph, but overall it should be a pleasant
day. Dry weather will continue into the overnight hours under partly
to mostly clear skies. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 60s
to the lower 70s. Radiational cooling Monday night will result in
chilly temperatures; upper 30s to mid 40s in the higher elevations,
and mid and upper 40s in the wider valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 254 PM EDT Saturday...Picture perfect fall weather is expected
through next week as high pressure settles over the region. Mostly
clear skies will dominate, along with light winds. As such,
overnight temperatures will be a bit on the chilly side owing to
optimal radiational cooling, so would expect lots of lows in the
40s, and even some 30s in the cold prone locations in the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Meanwhile, daytime highs will be
near normal, in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Aside from limited fog, VFR conditions
will prevail through the period under SCT-OVC high clouds at or
above 20,000 feet. Some lower VFR ceilings are possible at KRUT,
briefly possible associated with decaying band of showers in
southern Vermont tonight and again after sunrise. Another round
of LIFR fog is likely at KSLK from 07-12Z, although duration may
be reduced associated with sufficient northeasterly low level winds.
Have also indicated BR at MPV, with relatively low confidence of
dense fog given the high overcast amidst otherwise favorable
conditions including seasonal persistence of fog at this site.
Winds will be variable at 4-8kts during the daylight hours and
mainly calm overnight areawide.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Chai/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Kutikoff/Lahiff