292
FXUS61 KBTV 040538
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
138 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 137 AM EDT Tuesday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 137 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Tranquil weather is expected today and Wednesday as high
pressure builds over the region.
2. Seasonably warm and unsettled weather returns for the end of
the week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms.
3. Classic northern trough-southern ridge summer weather
pattern will bring above normal temperatures and multiple small
scale weather systems for the weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 137 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A pleasant day is expected across the region today as
high pressure continues to nose into the region, bringing a period
of drier weather. Some valley fog that has developed overnight will
gradually dissipate through the morning, with mostly clear skies and
sun expected for this afternoon. High temperatures today will climb
into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Another day of tranquil conditions is
expected for Wednesday as the region remains under the influence of
ridging, with high temperatures a few degrees warmer under light
southerly flow with daytime highs climbing into the 80s areawide.
Overall, it looks like a few pleasant summer days are on tap for the
region.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Heading into the latter half of the week, warm and
unsettled weather is expected as the region remains sandwiched
between high pressure to the south and an upper level trough to the
north, with zonal flow bringing several different disturbances to
the region. With broad southwesterly flow ushering in plenty of
moisture, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
Latest guidance shows decent instability across the region Thursday
afternoon, which combined with ample moisture and decent forcing may
lead to thunderstorm development in the afternoon, with the
potential for some stronger thunderstorms possible if all the
ingredients align, although details will become clearer as we get
closer. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are also
expected for Friday. In addition to the shower chances increase
later this week, the increased moisture will allow for dewpoints to
climb into the upper 60s to near 70 at times, making it feel
increasingly muggy and uncomfortable later this week. High
temperatures will climb into the 80s, with heat indices climbing
into the upper 80s and near 90.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Over the weekend, an upper low will mature on the
western edge of the Hudson Bay while a large western upper high
flattens out and settles east. This will produce a channeled flow
pattern that commonly sends small scale features racing east in a
speedy jet stream. This usually also means that the forecast
predictability will be low, as coarse resolution models may not
always accurately depict these smaller, convectively-influenced
systems within the fast flow pattern.
Assessing different ensemble suites, most indicate largely above
normal PWATs, although there is a signal for a brief pocket of dry
air. Some have that dry air in place on Sunday, some have it on
Monday, and a minority have it on Saturday. So Saturday appears the
most likely to feature scattered (even numerous) showers and
thunderstorms over the weekend. Between Saturday and next Tuesday,
there`s at least a trough per day passing east, and so there could
be some rain for each day. Towards the middle of next week, the
large scale pattern doesn`t change too much, but the northern trough-
southern ridge pair shifts east. This will place us a bit more under
the influence of the upper low. So after a period of above normal
temperatures, we will start trending back towards normal. The
question will be how amplified that upper low remains. Still showers
can`t be completely discounted given the upper low nearby.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Mostly clear skies are prevalent across the
region, though some mid clouds around 4000-8000 ft agl remain in
portions of the Adirondacks and northern Vermont. This is expected
to gradually clear. Despite the clear skies and recent rain, winds
at 400-600 ft agl are expected to be 20 knots. This mixing may
prevent most locations from decoupling, and even the last few hours
at KSLK have remained around 7 knots out of the southwest. Satellite
shows some fog has developed in eastern Vermont, and our cool
hollows can still briefly decouple. Thus, noted 4SM with a 1SM TEMPO
from 08-12z at KSLK and an early TEMPO to 2SM at KMPV before going
to 1/2SM prevailing from 09-1230z given fog already nearby.
Afterwards, any remaining fog will lift. Winds will shift southwest
to northwest at 5-9 knots, and a few gusts possible at KMPV and KMSS
to around 15-17 knots. Skies will be clear, and then winds will go
calm or terrain driven towards sunset (~00z).
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Kremer
AVIATION...Haynes
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