065
FXUS61 KBTV 161750
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
150 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and sunshine will remain in place today, though
wildfire smoke will likely keep conditions hazy. The heat and
humidity continue through tomorrow, but a cold front will finally
put an end to it tomorrow night. The front will cause scattered
showers and thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 241 AM EDT Wednesday...A warm and humid night is continuing but
with calm winds and clear skies, temperatures have been able to drop
back slightly more than forecast. While most areas are in the 60s to
around 70, the coldest hollows have been able to fall back into the
upper 50s. Ridging will continue through today and keep conditions
dry, though it will also keep very little flow around. This lack of
flow has been helping the wildfire smoke linger and the newer
guidance now keeps it in place for much of the day. With plenty of
sunshine and the warmest part of the airmass overhead, today will be
the hottest day of the week. Highs will be in the mid 80s to mid
90s, and with high humidity, heat index values will generally range
between the upper 80s and upper 90s. A prefrontal trough moves
through tonight and early tomorrow morning, bringing a round of
showers. As a surface low and its associated frontal system
approach, flow will increase and it should be able to advect out the
wildfire smoke. The nocturnal passage of the trough should prevent
any severe risk, but with flow still being on the slower side, the
flash flood potential cannot be completely ruled out.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 241 AM EDT Wednesday...The timing of the cold front continues
to speed up, with its passage now likely tomorrow afternoon and
evening. A few lingering clouds and showers from the prefrontal
trough are likely tomorrow morning, before some clearing looks to
occur in the afternoon. The earlier passage will likely increase the
severe risk a little, as it now passes around peak diurnal heating
in many areas. HREF mean surface CAPE is slightly above 1,000 J and
mean 0-6 KM shear is generally between 25-30 KTs. The frontal
passage and close proximity to the surface low will provide decent
synoptic forcing, and CAMs are starting to show a broken line
passing through tomorrow afternoon. Ingredients will be in place for
heavy rainfall with high PWATs and a large warm cloud depth. Storm
motion could be on the slower side but the storms generally look to
move fast enough to prevent much of a flash flooding risk, but it
still cannot be ruled out. There looks to be a brief window of gusty
synoptic winds around the time of the frontal passage tomorrow
afternoon and evening, particularly over parts of northern New York.
With efficient mixing during this time, gusts between 20-30 mph look
possible. Behind the front, there is finally a significant airmass
change. Dew points drop rapidly Thursday night and much cooler air
advects into the region. Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and dew
points will be in the 50s for most places, though dew points will
even fall into the upper 40s in a few areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 241 AM EDT Wednesday...We`ll start out the weekend with
beautiful weather as high pressure settles over the region. Highs
will be near or just a bit above normal for mid July, and dewpoints
will remain comfortably in the 50s. Precipitation chances increase
for Sunday however; an upper shortwave trough will scoot through
zonal flow aloft while a frontal system pushes eastward through the
Great Lakes. Don`t anticipate a complete washout though, and a warm
layer at mid levels should limit thunder potential. The system will
remain pretty progressive and exit to our east fairly quickly,
allowing high pressure to take hold again for the start of the work
week. Temperatures will stay close to normal next week, though there
are some indications we could start to see another warming trend
toward midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z Thursday...VFR conditions will persist with an
airmass change expected overnight. A frontal system will
progress through the Northeast Thursday with scattered showers
and afternoon chances of thunderstorms. For now, kept mostly
VCSH in place 10-18Z for most terminals, but could see multiple
rounds of showers depending on whether showers consolidate into
broken lines. Aside from a few thunderstorms, MVFR CIGs/VIS are
possible with heavier shower elements. However, can`t rule out a
stronger shower/thunderstorm that could result in IFR
conditions. Southwesterly flow aloft becomes more southerly
through the forecast period with gusts exceeding 20kts in
channeled areas like the northern Champlain Valley and at MSS.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
The current forecast highs for Tuesday and especially Wednesday
will be within a few degrees of daily record highs, which are
listed below.
July 16:
KBTV: 96/2018
KMPV: 92/1969
KPBG: 95/1969
KMSS: 94/2018
KSLK: 90/1997
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001-002-005-
009-021.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026>028-035-
087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
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