076
FXUS61 KBTV 070723
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
323 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
One more humid day with scattered showers is expected for today
ahead of a cold front that will shift southeast overnight into
Thursday. Temperatures will become cooler with daytime conditions in
the upper 50s to mid 60s. Additional rainfall will develop Friday
into Saturday, especially across eastern Vermont. The new week will
open up with dry conditions and temperatures climbing into the 70s
to near 80.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Wednesday...Humid weather continues, but mid-level
dry air has kept shower activity minimal outside the western
hemisphere of an upper low positioned by Lake Ontario. Mid to late
afternoon, the upper low will shift east. Weak instability with
tall, very skinny CAPE will yield about 250 J/kg of CAPE over
Vermont with little in the way of instability over northern New
York. HREF depictions signal south- central and the Northeast Kingdom
to feature the most widespread convective coverage, but little
suggesting heavy rainfall rates. Another somewhat above normal
day in the mid 60s to lower 70s is expected. So, outside
showers, it will be another pleasant spring day!
For tonight, periodic isolated to scattered showers will continue as
a sharp frontal boundary slides southeast. As per usual, it`s a
piecemeal front and models have noticeably slowed the second piece
of it, which will unfortunately set the stage for another wet
Saturday. The first piece arriving about sunset is fairly strong
with scattered rain. The second piece is fairly weak with marginal
moisture, and so a spot shower is possible as it slides through
Thursday morning. It will have cooler air behind it, but will
struggle making it south of the Connecticut River Valley.
Springfield could make a run for 70 again, but the rest of
Vermont and northern New York will linger in the mid 50s to
lower 60s for the day. Late Thursday evening, moisture will
begin to move parallel to that boundary. Rain will begin to
develop across southern Vermont and slowly edge north beyond
Thursday evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Wednesday...Chances for rain showers ramp back up
again Thursday night with an upper-level shortwave trough forecast
to close off into another closed low. By Friday morning, the center
of the low will be over western NY, then will slowly meander to
eastern NY State by Friday evening. A surface coastal low will
develop off the New Jersey/Long Island coast late Friday, poised to
track northeastward over the weekend. Low-level easterly onshore
flow north of the low along with favorable jet placement and mid-
level height falls will all promote showers throughout the day on
Friday, especially over Vermont. Portions of NY including the Saint
Lawrence Valley may escape any shower activity, while the heaviest
QPF is expected over southern VT (0.5-0.8 inch, with locally higher
amounts possible). Highs Friday will be in the 50s for most
locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Wednesday...Friday night will be wet for much of
Vermont, but the timing of the departure of the low and thus the end
time of the rain on Saturday remains murky as models struggle to
come to a consensus. The deterministic ECMWF has held the
steadiest, keeping rain in place for our eastern counties for the
first half of Saturday before trending drier going into the evening.
Meanwhile, the deterministic GFS has shown very little consistency
with regards to the Saturday forecast. Have thus trended the
forecast slightly on the wetter side than the National Blend
depicts, closer to the more consistent ECMWF solution.
High pressure will build in Sunday, staying in control through
midday Tuesday. This will be welcome news for those looking for a
break in the showers, with at least a few days of dry weather to
look forward to. In addition to the dry weather, temperatures will
warm to well above normal going into midweek. By Monday/Tuesday,
expect highs in the 70s areawide. In the overnights, most areas
will remain warm enough to avoid any frost.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR over New York with pockets of
MVFR in Vermont are present at this time. Isolated rain showers
will dissipate in the next couple hours. About 09z, an upper
low will shift overhead. Initially, this will cause MVFR
ceilings to briefly improve over Vermont while bringing ceilings
down over KSLK and KMSS. Additional scattered rain showers will
follow behind that about 11z to 15z. Coverage of rain will
increase in Vermont as surface trough begins to shift southeast
from Canada 15z to 22z. Additional lingering showers are
possible as winds shift from south to northwest and could be
sharp in a few locations. Wind speeds will generally be 5 to 10
knots. Some LLWS is possible, but appears too marginal to
expressly note in TAFs. Once flow turns northwest after 00z,
ceilings will fall to 800-2500 ft agl with shower activity
ending, though some may linger near KEFK.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...Haynes
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