000
FXUS61 KBTV 232346
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
746 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather will continue through the weekend with scattered to
overcast highs clouds associated with Tropical Storm Ophelia as it
moves northward into the Mid Atlantic. No precipitation is expected
from this system across the North Country, with very low chances for
showers in southern Vermont. Much of next week is expected to be dry
with near normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 254 PM EDT Saturday...Quiet weather is expected over the next
36 hours with no impacts from Tropical Storm Ophelia, except for
less than ideal solar generation due to mid/high cloud cover. Outer
bands of precipitation from Ophelia continue to run into a very dry
airmass over the North Country and Vermont where dewpoint
depressions this afternoon range from 10-15 degrees at the surface.
And while some lowering of ceiling heights and increased surface
moisture is expected overnight through Sunday across
central/southern zones, the probability of any appreciable rain is
very low. Will continue to offer some 10-20% PoPs across
central/southern VT this evening through Sunday, zero north, but
overall if anything falls it will likely just be sprinkles.
Otherwise, scattered to broken mid/high clouds will persist across
the region through Sunday, before clearing from northwest to
southeast Sunday night. Fog will be likely once again across
portions of northern New York tonight, less so across VT because of
the cloud cover. Lows tonight and Sunday night will be similar to
last night in the 40s to low 50s, and highs Sunday will be similar
to today in the low 70s north to mid 60s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 254 PM EDT Saturday...Monday will be the start of a prolonged
dry spell as moisture associated with Ophelia`s remnants gets
shunted away to the south. Some fair weather cumulus may develop
over the higher terrain in the afternoon, but overall expect ample
sunshine. Winds will be a touch on the brisk side, blowing from the
north/northeast at 5 to 10 mph, but overall it should be a pleasant
day. Dry weather will continue into the overnight hours under partly
to mostly clear skies. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 60s
to the lower 70s. Radiational cooling Monday night will result in
chilly temperatures; upper 30s to mid 40s in the higher elevations,
and mid and upper 40s in the wider valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 254 PM EDT Saturday...Picture perfect fall weather is expected
through next week as high pressure settles over the region. Mostly
clear skies will dominate, along with light winds. As such,
overnight temperatures will be a bit on the chilly side owing to
optimal radiational cooling, so would expect lots of lows in the
40s, and even some 30s in the cold prone locations in the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Meanwhile, daytime highs will be
near normal, in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Aside from limited fog, VFR conditions
will prevail through the period under SCT-OVC high clouds at or
above 20,000 feet. Some lower VFR ceilings are possible at KRUT,
briefly possible associated with decaying band of showers in
southern Vermont tonight and again after sunrise. Another round
of LIFR fog is likely at KSLK from 07-12Z, although duration may
be reduced associated with sufficient northeasterly low level winds.
Have also indicated BR at MPV, with relatively low confidence of
dense fog given the high overcast amidst otherwise favorable
conditions including seasonal persistence of fog at this site.
Winds will be variable at 4-8kts during the daylight hours and
mainly calm overnight areawide.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Kutikoff/Lahiff