252
FXUS61 KBTV 260544
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1244 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 133 PM EST Sunday...No significant changes were made to
the forecast. Snowfall totals were marginally increased towards
the Canadian border.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 133 PM EST Sunday...
1. Widespread moderate to heavy snow will accumulate this
afternoon through Monday night. 8 to 16 inches are expected for
most locations except for 13 to 19 inches along southeastern
slopes of the Adirondacks and south-central Vermont. Up to 2
feet of snow is possible in the southern Greens. Snow
accumulations will result in hazardous travel conditions tonight
through Monday night.
2. Below normal temperatures are expected for the mid to late
week time frame, with just a few periodic chances for light snow
showers, mainly in the Lake Ontario snowbelts and in the
northern mountains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 133 PM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Radar has filled in across northern New York and
Vermont with light snow falling. Moderate snowfall is falling
across central NY State where embedded snowbands have formed in
the mean layer of lighter snowfall, and will spread northward
through the afternoon. Heavy snowfall is expected to begin this
evening as an area of vorticity tracks over the region enhancing
snowfall rates. One interesting feature of this system is that
the depth of the DGZ extends basically from the surface to
15kft+ suggesting that dendrite formation will be incredibly
efficient despite PWATs remaining lower around the 0.3-0.4"
range. Efficient dendrite formation coupled with relatively
little wind in the first 10kft and the duration of precipitation
will allow for significant snowfall totals ranging 8 to 16
inches across northern zones, 13 to 18 inches for central
Vermont and northern Adirondacks, then 18-24 inches on easterly
slopes of the southern Greens and southeastern Adirondacks. One
caveat that was noted in the previous forecast for the Rutland
area remains true: model depictions of some faster winds at the
3-6kft layer of 40+kts will support some slightly lower totals
due to fracturing dendrites; blowing snow may be more
significant here as well with periods of very poor visibility.
Heaviest snowfall rates will be this evening with periods of 1-2
inches of snow per hour. The result will be bulk of
accumulation to occur: widespread 6 to 14 inches in this period.
Monday, the primary area of large scale low pressure moves well
off shore while a secondary trough tracks eastward through
northern New York and Vermont. As model depictions increased
forcing with this feature, QPF amounts were increased associated
which bumped totals up more in the northern Champlain Valley
and towards the Canadian border. Moderate snow showers will be
likely where general additional amount`s will be around 3 to 8
inches through the day.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: A large-scale upper polar trough will dominate
regional weather conditions during the entirety of the Wed-Sun
time frame with dry northwesterly flow and below normal
temperatures. Mean daily averages on the order of -8 to -12
degrees should be the rule during these periods. No impactful
weather systems are expected with the dry flow putting a damper
on any deeper moisture pushing into our area and only periodic
chances for a few light snow showers.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Widespread snow continues through this
evening. The steadiest and heaviest snow will be through about 9Z,
where visibilities most places will be IFR. Between around 9Z and
mid afternoon, the snow will become lighter and more scattered.
There will likely be intervals of MVFR or even VFR visibilities at
times. During the late afternoon and evening, the snow looks to
become heavier and steadier, and visibilities should return to IFR
for most places. The snow exits tonight and visibilities return to
VFR. Ceilings will be mostly MVFR during the next 24 hours, though
they look to be briefly IFR at MPV and SLK during the steadiest
snow. Winds will generally be light and northerly, except at RUT
where southeast gusts in the 10 to 20 KT range are expected and MSS
where 10 to 20 KT gusts from the northeast are expected. LLWS will
be present at times this morning, especially at RUT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ001>011-
016>021.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ026>031-034-
035-087.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyd/JMG
AVIATION...Myskowski
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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