000
FXUS61 KBTV 251130
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
730 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of light snows and rains, along with gusty winds are
expected this afternoon into tonight as low pressure moves through
the region. Behind this system, quieter weather returns by later
tomorrow and persists into the middle portions of next week with
near seasonal temperatures expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 730 AM EDT Saturday...Only noise-level tweaks to hourly
T/Td trends were needed through mid-morning to bring current
forecast in line. Otherwise no changes were needed. Have a great
day!

Prior discussion...
The forecast remains generally on track as maturing low
pressure tracks northeast toward the Ottawa Valley today, then
quickly weakens overnight while shunting more easterly. Still
looking at high probabilities of precipitation, most focused for
a 1-4 hour window this afternoon/early evening with the
associated warm front, then again overnight with the cold
frontal passage. Given we`re in late March and boundary layer
warming in the lower several hundred meters will play a larger
role, I`ve downplayed the threat of any icing/sleet potential
suggesting that will be more ephemeral in nature. That said, as
the the best frontogenetical forcing/lift lifts northward
through the area along the warm front, most areas should be able
to wet bulb down a few degrees such that the first round of
precipitation should fall mainly as snow. Given the rather short
residence time of this band in any one location, and the fact
that surface temperatures will be ranging through the 30s,
accumulations today should still be light - mainly less than an
inch in valley locales, and perhaps up to 2 inches in elevated
terrain.

Behind this first round, precipitation trends more scattered as we
enter the parent warm sector. Fairly robust east/southeasterly flow
will develop in the lower to mid levels during this late
afternoon/evening time frame, with raw hi-res model output
suggesting at least enough mixing will occur (perhaps to 925 hPa)
that enhanced gusts from 40-50 mph are likely along favored western
slopes of the Greens and northwestern slopes of the northern Dacks.
Here, Wind Advisories have been issued in the 3 pm to midnight time
frame. Elsewhere, gustiness is also expected, but more on the order
of 20 to 35 mph. By later tonight, the system`s cold front and
associated band of light rains/snows should traverse the area.
Highest probabilities of receiving a additional light snows will lie
across north central and northeastern VT with other areas seeing
mainly a period of light rain showers.

By Sunday, scattered morning rain/snow showers lingering across
central/northern counties will gradually pull away to the northeast,
leaving largely dry conditions by mid/late afternoon. Modestly gusty
post-frontal westerly flow of 20 to 30 mph is expected under
variably cloudy skies as highs generally top out from 37 to 43.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 401 AM EDT Saturday...Terrain based precipitation tapers off by
Sunday evening as weak high pressure starts to build in, leading to
quiet weather Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will be near
seasonal norms with daytime highs in the 30s and 40s and overnight
lows in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 401 AM EDT Saturday...Overall seasonable and quiet weather for
next week as upper level flow remains progressive across much of
CONUS. Tuesday looks to continue mostly dry weather with weak high
pressure remaining in control. Better chances for more widespread
precipitation look to be in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame, with
the best GFS/CMC/EC ensemble member guidance consensus during this
time. But even then, it looks like a nuisance, sub Advisory type
event as the coastal low consensus track is south and east of the
70W/40N benchmark, which places the precipitation axis over southern
New England. Temperatures should hold within a few degrees of
seasonal norms for much of the week with highs in the upper 30s to
mid 40s and overnight lows mainly in the 20s to locally around 30.

So a rather decent week for outdoor activities and Spring Maple Open
Houses. Also good news from a hydrologic standpoint with no massive
warm ups.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conds through 16-18Z time frame as
thin high clouds gradually thicken and lower in advance of a
warm front approaching from the southwest. This front and
associated precipitation will affect the region thereafter.
Precipitation will mainly fall as a quick 1-3 hour burst of IFR
light snows, mainly in the 16-23Z time frame south to north,
after which it tends to become more scattered with some mixed
light rains possible in valley locales such as BTV. After
steadier precipitation abates, and gusty east/southeast winds
from 20-35 kts develop with wind shear to 45-55kt at selected
terminals. This will likely lead to enhanced mechanical
turbulence on approaches/departures. Late in the forecast cycle
(after 05Z) a period of renewed rain/snow shower activity is
expected as a cold front will cross the region.


Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night:  Chance SHSN.
Wednesday:  Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight
     for VTZ016>019.
NY...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight
     for NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Chai
LONG TERM...Chai
AVIATION...JMG