619
FXUS61 KBTV 061843
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
143 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 142 PM EST Friday...
Snowfall amounts have been increased slightly. Extreme cold warnings
and Cold Weather Advisories remain in place for all of Vermont and
northern New York for Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 142 PM EST Friday...
1. Convective snow showers move in tonight and continue into
Saturday. Hazardous travel conditions are expected with snow
accumulations generally between 2 and 4 inches.
2. Dangerously cold wind chills of 20 to 40 degrees below zero
expected over the weekend.
3. No significant impacts are expected through much of next
week, with temperatures moderating closer to normal and chances for
snow showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 142 PM EST Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An arctic cold front is rapidly approaching northern New
York from the west with snow showers expected across the St.
Lawrence Valley by 8 PM. These snow showers will spread westward
during the evening and overnight hours and continue into the early
afternoon across portions of Vermont. Models continue to show strong
low level convergence and frontogenesis associated with the arctic
cold front due in large part to an impressive thermal gradient. The
latest HREF data is showing snowfall rates between 0.5" and 0.75"
per hour between 6 AM and 10 AM across Vermont as the front shifts
eastward. Given the increasing snowfall rates, we made the decision
to bump up snowfall totals up to 2-4 inches for most locations with
3 to 5 inches possible across the western slopes of the Green
Mountains including Jay Peak, Mt. Mansfield, and Killington. This
snow will be light and fluffy with snow ratios likely averaging out
in the 20:1 to 25:1 range so impacts overall should be limited to
those who have to travel while snow is ongoing. Following the
frontal passage, winds will quickly shift to the west/northwest and
gust between 20 and 30 mph. This will help blow this new snowfall
around and cause decreased visibility periodically throughout the
day on Saturday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Bitterly cold air will quickly filter into the region
Saturday morning/afternoon in the wake of the arctic cold front. The
"high" temperature on Saturday will likely be observed between 6 and
8 AM for many locations with temperatures plummeting throughout the
day. As these temperatures plummet, winds will rapidly increase
leading to wind chill values dropping to -20 or colder early in the
day on Saturday across northern New York and by early evening in
Vermont. Temperatures will continue to fall rapidly through the
evening and overnight hours as we head into Sunday morning with lows
bottoming out below zero everywhere. The latest MOS guidance has
taken temperatures down even further than before with parts of the
Adirondacks dropping to 20 degrees below zero. With the changes to
low temperatures, wind chills have been dropped between 1-3 degrees
across the North Country but the impacts remain the same: frostbite
and hypothermia will be a real concern this weekend. Those with
outdoor plans should plan to dress in layers and cover as much
exposed skin as possible to prevent frostbite and/or hypothermia.
Sunday night will also be very cold with low temperatures below zero
everywhere. However, winds will be much weaker but wind chills in
the -10 to 20 degree range look probable.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A relatively cold and dry start to next week is expected
across the region as surface high pressure remains across the
region. Temperatures look to moderate as the week progresses, with
daytime highs nearing seasonal normals towards the end of the
forecast period, in contrast to the bitter cold this weekend. Broad
cyclonic flow aloft will allow for some snow showers chances
throughout the week, especially across the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Most sites will be VFR through the next 6
hours, before ceilings will trend towards MVFR as light fluffy snow
begins to overspread the area this evening. -SHSN associated with an
approaching arctic cold front will trend ceilings towards MVFR
1000-2000ft agl this evening from west to east, beginning at MSS by
00Z, and to EFK/MPV by 06Z. Snow will also quickly lower
visibilities to 3-5SM at the onset, and are expected to lower
further to IFR around 1SM from west to east, with perhaps some
embedded 1/2SM to 3/4SM SN generally after 03Z. These IFR
visibilities will be associated with a band of more moderate snow
that will pass from west to east across each terminal with the
approximate timing parsed out in each terminal TAF. Model soundings
also suggest the possibility (40-50%) of, for most terminals, a
brief shallow inversion ahead of the snow band which could result in
IFR ceilings between 500-900ft agl. Confidence is highest in these
IFR ceilings at BTV/MSS/PBG. For now due to some lingering
uncertainty in the lower cigs, have suggested just a scattered IFR
deck, with future TAFs to depict this feature in better detail. As
the boundary shifts east into Vermont near 10-12Z, Froude numbers
are expected to be well below 0.5 indicating blocked flow against
the Greens. Snow showers as a result, in addition to potentially
longer IFR visibilities, are expected to persist through at least
16Z at BTV. Behind the front beyond 12-14Z, winds will become
northwesterly and gusty up to 20 kts through the end of this TAF
period. Gusty winds may lead to localized blowing snow at most sites
tomorrow morning.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if
you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday
for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Extreme Cold Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday
for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Clay/Kremer
AVIATION...Danzig
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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