552
FXUS61 KBTV 110707
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
307 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 239 AM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 239 AM EDT Saturday...
1. After cool and breezy conditions today, temperatures warm
Sunday as a cold front brings more rain and gusty winds to
northern New York and Vermont.
2. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected next week, along
with several chances for precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 239 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Last night`s cold front has exited the region
with a few trailing showers possible this morning mainly in
northeastern Vermont and along higher terrain of the Greens.
We`ll be noticeably cooler with breezy northwesterly flow
developing. Highs will top out in the 40s for most locations
and around 50 degrees fore portions of southern Vermont. Models
show low level wind gusts generally ranging 15 to 25 mph, but a
few spots could reach 30 mph this afternoon.
Flow shifts southerly ahead of the next system projected to move
into the region Sunday into Monday. The biggest challenge with
this system will be related to wind speeds. A strong 60-80kt
850mb jet continues to be projected with this system supporting
gusty conditions, especially for northern New York along the
northern flanks of the Adirondacks down along the Highway 11
corridor and the northern Champlain Valley. Wind signatures are
as strong as those of a couple of weeks ago when surface gusts
exceeded 50 mph at times. However, these winds are coincident
with precipitation which should dampen the winds some. Ensemble
mean gusts for these typical trouble spots are currently 30-35
mph with an atypical narrow spread in terms of standard
deviation supporting an upper bound of 40 mph within one
standard deviation of the mean winds. Forecaster experience
suggests that there will be periods where wind gusts exceed 40
mph. Best estimates at this time are for more consistent gusts
of 30 to 40 mph with potential for sporadic gusts up to 50 mph
mainly in the 6AM to 12PM time frame Monday when precipitation
loading weakens. Most other locations outside of the typically
windier spots should see gusts in the 20-25 mph range.
Otherwise, there is a decent slug of moisture accompanying this
system with higher amounts favored towards the Canadian border
and terrain of Adirondacks/northern Greens. Some spots in these
areas may exceed 0.67" while most other locations south will see
0.2-0.4" while southern Vermont is lower favored to be in the
0.1-0.2" range. A few spots in the highest elevations of the
northern Greens may approach 1" of rainfall.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The large scale pattern for next week continues to
support zonal flow aloft across our region, bringing a few continued
chances for showers throughout next week. A low level boundary looks
to remain situated near the International Border, which will have a
large influence on temperatures and precipitation for the middle of
next week. The current temperature forecast continues to support
unseasonably warm temperatures for the middle of the week, with
daytime high temperatures climbing into the 70s Wednesday and
Thursday, with a few locations nearing 80F. The NBM does currently
show a widespread in temperature guidance given the uncertainty
regarding the aforementioned boundary and any precipitation, with
the 75th percentile showing 78F and the 25th percentile showing 65F
for the high temperature here at BTV on Wednesday. While there will
be several chances for precipitation, it looks to be quite showery
and scattered in nature. Wednesday afternoon looks to have the
greatest probability of any thunder given surface heating and
moisture. As always, there is low confidence is the exact timing of
any of these features at this time range, so trends will need to be
monitored as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Variable flight conditions currently exist
across the region, ranging from LIFR to VFR, as a cold front
continues to push across the region. Some rain showers will continue
to be possible over the next few hours, with drier conditions
quickly moving in behind the boundary. Ceilings are expected to
improve over the next few hours, with all terminals trending towards
VFR by 12Z, with the exception of KEFK and KSLK where MVFR may
linger longer to about 15Z or so. Winds continue to be
north/northwesterly, with some increasing gusts between 15 to 25
knots throughout the afternoon. Winds look to trend more light and
variable after 00Z as high pressure continues to build over the
region.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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