203
FXUS61 KBTV 161738
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
138 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 243 AM EDT Thursday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 243 AM EDT Thursday...
1. Wildfire smoke will continue to degrade the air quality. An
Air Quality Alert is in effect for northern New York and
southern Vermont today.
2. Thunderstorm chances today and over the weekend.
3. Seasonably warm temperatures and a brief dry period are
expected early next week, then another round of showers and
potential storms towards midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 243 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Wildfires in western Ontario have been emitting
significant plumes of smoke into the air and persistent west to
northwest flow is bringing them toward the region. Enough
northerly flow behind the cold front pushed the smoke south for
the overnight, but flow becomes more westerly this morning and
it will renter southern and central areas. A reinforcing cold
front comes through this afternoon and should push it back to
the south for the evening and Friday. However, flow becomes more
westerly to southwesterly heading into the weekend and it will
try to re-enter the region. An Air Quality Alert is in effect
for northern New York and southern Vermont today where the smoke
will be the worst, but reduced air quality is expected
everywhere. The Air Quality alert is in the unhealthy for
sensitive groups level.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front moves down from the north today and
it will bring a broken line of showers and storms. The best
forcing is farther east so the storms will likely be more
widespread and robust over Vermont. Instability will be meager,
with mean HREF SBCAPE values under 500 J which will
significantly limit the convection. However, there will be
strong dynamics and 0-6 KM shear will be in the 40-60 KT range.
Therefore, an isolated strong to severe storm is possible. That
being said, the shear is strong enough that storms will struggle
with the low instability and could get sheared off.
The next round of showers and storms is late Saturday and
Saturday night. An anomalously strong sub 1,000 MB low looks to
take a general track up the St. Lawrence Valley or close to
that. Showers look more widespread close to the international
border on Saturday as the warm front and center of the low would
be closer. A powerful cold front looks to come through in the
afternoon and evening, bringing a round of showers and storms.
The airmass ahead of the system will be relatively cool and not
conducive to high instability. However, with such strong
dynamics and shear, the potential for a couple of strong to
severe storms is there, particularly if the front comes through
earlier in the day. Otherwise, temperatures will be quite
seasonable during this stretch.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Precipitation chances will be decreasing on
Sunday as drier air flows into northern New York and Vermont.
High pressure and weak ridging will control the weather pattern
Sunday night into Monday, allowing temperatures to climb back
towards or slightly above seasonal averages in the 70s to mid
80s each afternoon. Nighttime temperatures will fall into the
upper 40s to mid 60s. Another trough is expected to come through
sometime toward midweek. Models diverge in their solutions for
this Tuesday-Wednesday system, particularly in terms of timing,
but most project a surface low crossing through Canada dragging
the frontal boundaries through our area and returning highs to
the 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Primary aviation weather concern is the
gusty line of showers and embedded thunderstorms traveling
southward along a cold front this afternoon. Surface wind gusts
to 46kts were observed at PBG and 41kts at BTV just after 17Z.
Anticipate additional gusts near 40kt possible at KSLK/KMPV and
KRUT through 19Z before the line of showers and thunderstorms
pushes south of our region. Brief MVFR conditions possible, but
main hazard will be the thunderstorm wind gusts. Post-frontal
winds will remain N-NW at moderate speeds, but skies should
trend FEW-SCT050-100 with VFR conditions expected thru the
balance of the TAF period once the storms pass. Skies become
clear late tonight thru Friday.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for VTZ005-
007>011-017>021.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ026>031-
034-035-087.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Myskowski
AVIATION...Banacos
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