698
FXUS61 KBTV 211836
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
136 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings lighter winds and generally quiet weather for
tonight and tomorrow, with only a few light snow showers possible in
northern areas. Afterwards, a clipper system approaching from the
Great Lakes region will bring light snow accumulations and possible
minor travel impacts for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Behind the
system, an active pattern will continue, but without any major storm
systems.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 131 PM EST Sunday...While the cold front passed quickly to the
south this morning and any of the heavier convective snow showers
are done, a few areas of light snow remain across the region. The
main one is a line that extends from west to east across the
northern Route 11 corridor, which can be directly traced back to
Lake Huron. As flow becomes more northwesterly this evening, the
lake moisture will shift to the south and it should mostly end the
snow showers. Very subtle ridging moves in tonight but it will
likely not be enough to erode a lot of the clouds. Temperatures will
fall into the single digits and teens tonight, but lingering clouds
and wind should keep the cold airmass from realizing its full
potential. Despite a mostly dry day Monday, weak warm air advection
snow will attempt to move across northern areas, but dry air,
limited moisture, and minimal forcing may keep much of the
precipitation from reaching the ground. Return southerly flow will
begin Monday night, but the pressure gradient will thankfully be
relatively weak, so it will prevent the strong winds we have seen
the past few days.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 131 PM EST Sunday...A more impactful but still relatively weak
clipper moves through Tuesday and Tuesday night. For being only a
couple days out, there is still a surprisingly high amount of model
uncertainty associated with it, but there is still high confidence
in the synoptic setup. A weak surface low will track far to the
north close to the James Bay and then quickly dive southeast as it
runs into a nearly stationary ridge situated over Atlantic Canada.
There will be modest overrunning along a narrow axis extending well
southeast of the low that will very gradually push northeast. Right
now, the consensus is light snow will enter southwestern areas in
the morning and northeastern areas in the afternoon, before
eventually pushing to the east Tuesday night. The relatively long
residence time of the snow, despite relatively low rates, should
allow for most areas see a few inches. Right now, it looks to be
just under advisory level with most areas seeing 2-4 inches, but
that will depend on the speed and organization of that axis of snow.
A very brief changeover to rain is possible in the lowest valleys,
but with decent lapse rates, the precipitation will stay snow even
if the temperature rises a couple degrees above freezing.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Sunday...A clipper system will be departing the
region Tuesday night with a secondary surface low poised to track
over northern Quebec with an associated connecting boundary to the
clipper draped over the region. This boundary will quickly sweep
over the region Tuesday night with dominating northwest flow, aided
by a developing 1030mb high over the Mid-Atlantic. Some residual
snow showers across the Adirondacks and northern Greens will be
possible with marginal enough forcing and orographic lift to sustain
some light snow. An additional 0.5-2" will be possible in the
upslope favored areas of the Adirondacks and northern Greens by
daybreak Christmas Eve. Main impacts would be some light snow
coating on roadways in the higher terrain. However, no significant
impacts are expected. High pressure noses in for Christmas Eve with
diffluent flow keeping the area mainly dry with calm conditions.
Overnight lows on Christmas Eve will be in the low to upper teens
with generally cloudy skies. As the Mid-Atlantic high shifts east,
winds will become southerly on Christmas with temperatures rising to
near freezing for the entire region. Highs will be near 30 for most
of the region with lows Christmas night in the mid teens to low 20s.
Meager low-level waa may be sufficient to sustain some light snow
showers, mainly along the spine of the Greens, but overall forcing
remains on the weak side. The highest PoPs anywhere in the region on
Christmas are only 20%. The next potentially impactful system will
arrive late Christmas evening into Friday next week. There still
remains a lot of uncertainty with this system mainly in the thermal
profiles, and overall track positioning. However, at or above
seasonable temperatures are anticipated which could draw in some
rain or wintry mix with the system, especially with GEFS 850mb temps
progged at 5C, and 925mb temps 0-3C. We will watch the evolution of
this system in the models for trends in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...A strong moisture starved cold front is
pushing through northern New York and into the northern
Champlain Valley within the next hour or so. Observed gusty
winds up to 40 kts are accompanying the front. Southerly winds
ahead of the front will quickly turn to the west with the
frontal passage, turning over the course of an hour or 2. The
timing of the front is generally 12Z in the Champlain Valley,
and 13-14Z at EFK/MPV. RUT should have less gusts, but will
still see a wind shift. Precipitation is falling as mostly virga
based on observing sites, but a brief period of snow cannot be
ruled out as the front passes each terminal. Winds will continue
to shift towards the west/northwest by this evening with winds
remaining breezy. Winds finally will weaken back towards calm by
12Z tomorrow. Ceilings currently are VFR, and should remain VFR
at most sites outside of SLK/MSS/EFK through the TAF period.
Lower clouds across eastern Ontario will advect into northern
New York and the Northeast Kingdom dropping cigs to 2000-3000ft
agl for a few hours this afternoon, particularly at SLK. Any
lower ceilings will be limited by a lack of low level moisture
and a well mixed boundary layer. Ceilings return to VFR at all
sites around 00Z.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Likely SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Christmas Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for Lake Champlain today
(Sunday). Winds will remain dangerous to small craft, with
values west 20-25kts and gusts to 30kts through the balance of
the daylight hours. The highest waves will be focused from
Colchester Point to Burlington this afternoon as winds continue
to be westerly and northwesterly. Winds will shift more
northwesterly and lighten overnight, dropping to around and
below 10 KTs by morning. Waves should drop from the 1-3 foot
range this afternoon to around and below a foot by tomorrow
morning.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This
site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an estimated return
to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad
waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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