397
FXUS61 KBTV 281341
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
Issued by National Weather Service Caribou ME
941 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 939 AM EDT Tuesday...
Issued red flag warning for today for portions of the area.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 939 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across
much of northern New York and western Vermont.
2. A prolonged period of widespread rainfall is expected for
the latter half of the week, along with cooler temperatures,
bringing fire weather concerns to an end.
3. Unsettled and cooler conditions are expected to linger
through the weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 939 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: We`ll see yet another dry day today as we remain under
the influence of ridging positioned just to our east. Meanwhile, low
pressure will approach from the west, helping to tighten the
pressure gradient. The result will be increasingly gusty winds
today, especially from the Champlain Valley westward. Given the very
dry air in place, this sets the stage for Red Flag conditions over
northern New York and western VT, where a red flag warning has
just been issued. Frequent gusts of 25 mph are expected, and we
wouldn`t be surprised to see localized gusts approaching 30-35
mph as the very dry airmass will allow for efficient mixing.
This will also serve to warm temperatures above much of the
guidance. Have bumped up today`s temperatures toward the NBM90th
percentile, resulting in highs in the 70s areawide. With
dewpoints likely in the low to mid 30s, minimum relative
humidity values of 20 to 30 percent can be expected, with some
spots perhaps dropping down into the teens.
For areas east of the Champlain Valley, the ridge axis will be
closer and thereby winds not quite as gusty as further west. Still,
relative humidity values will be low, and since we`re still pre-
greenup, another Special Weather Statement for heightened fire
concerns seems reasonable.
Regardless of whether you`re under the Red Flag Warning or the
Special Weather Statement, please refrain from setting any
fires. A burn ban remains in place in New York. If you have any
plans to burn in Vermont, please check with your local fire
warden or fire department.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A slow moving upper trough will slowly spin over or just
north of the Great Lakes as we head into the latter half of the
week. This will drag an elongated surface trough/frontal boundary
across our region late Wednesday through Thursday, which will bring
a welcome widespread soaking rainfall. A general 0.50-1.00 inch is
expected, with higher amounts possible along/east of the central and
southern Greens and also the High Peaks of the Adirondacks and the
southern St Lawrence Valley. After another mild day on Wednesday,
Thursday will be much cooler due to cloud cover and rain. The system
starts to shift east of our region Thursday night, allowing rain to
wane to just a few lingering showers overnight into Friday. However,
temperatures will continue to fall, so showers could well mix with
and/or change to snow, mainly above 1500-1800 ft. Light snow
accumulation will be possible over the highest summits. Highs on
Friday will only be in the 40s to low 50s, with a brisk
west/northwest wind adding to the chill.
KEY MESSAGE 3: An upper level trough will remain over our region from
Friday night through Tuesday night. This will bring us cooler than
normal temperatures and several chances for light rain or snow
showers. Snow showers will be possible mainly for elevations above
2000 feet. Highs are favored to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and
lows in the 30s.
One thing to note is that the climatological start to the growing
season in the Champlain Valley begins May 1st (this Friday) when we
expect overnight lows to be near Frost Advisory criteria (32-36F)
both Friday night and lesser so Saturday night. Cloud cover may
limit the overall cooling that takes place, but conditions may be
favorable for frost development. We will monitor this in the coming
days.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...The primary aviation concern will be
developing gusty winds today and associated areas of wind shear
and turbulence. VFR conditions prevail at all sites for the next
12 to 24 hours with light terrain driven winds under 5 knots
through mid morning. Winds increase from the south at 5 to 15
knots with localized gusts 15 to 25 knots expected after 15z
Tuesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for VTZ030.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ202-203-
205.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Foisy
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Hastings/Foisy
AVIATION...Neiles
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