704
FXUS61 KBTV 171739
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1239 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow is currently falling across northern New York and Vermont early
this morning. Persistent northwesterly flow and a prolonged period
of upslope snow across the Adirondacks and Greens is expected for
the first half of the week. Moderate to heavy snow and gusty winds
are expected, especially for northwestern slopes with additional
snow accumulations around 2 to 8 inches forecast. Snow showers will
eventually taper off by Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 143 AM EST Monday...Surface low pressure is currently
crossing Prince Edward Island, Canada, early this morning,
keeping northern New York and Vermont under persistent
northwesterly flow. This is resulting in upslope snow showers
and gusty west and northwest winds. Additional snow
accumulations will occur throughout the day today, mainly on
western and northwestern slopes of the region`s mountains. A
notable lack of moisture in the snow growth zone of the
atmosphere with dry layers seen on satellite may limit us from
reaching our full snowfall potential today. An additional trace
to three inches is possible in the St. Lawrence and Champlain
valleys, increasing as you get closer to the mountains.
The Connecticut River Valley area will likely miss out on any more
snow today, while high elevations of the northern/central Greens and
the northwestern Adirondacks could have about 3 to 8 inches of new
snow by the end of the day, with the majority of it falling in the
morning hours. Snow shower coverage is anticipated to decrease
throughout the day as low pressure shifts northwards towards
Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. We have not received many reports
overnight tonight, so the storm total is a challenge to deduce at
the moment, but we`re estimating around 7 to 10 inches will be the
total for the Warning areas with some of the more robust 10 to
16 inch totals reserved for high elevation westerly and
northwesterly slopes.
In terms of winds, we`re forecasting gusts to be highest through
noon, as high as 20 to 35 mph, closer to 35 to 40 mph on Lake
Champlain, mountaintops, and easterly/southeasterly slopes. Winds
should begin to relent in the afternoon, but remain breezy with the
potential to blow snow around and lower visibilities. Highs will be
chilly in the upper 20s and 30s in the afternoon, about 5 to 15
degrees below seasonal normals.
Tonight, low pressure will continue to circulate around
Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, resulting in the 20-50%
chance for some additional snow showers in the Adirondacks,
northern Greens, and Northeast Kingdom. Additional snow of up to
2-4 inches is possible throughout the night in these areas.
Breezy winds will continue out of the west and northwest with
gusts 15 to 25 mph, higher on summits and likely blowing snow
around. These winds, combined with lows in the upper teens and
20s, will result in wind chills as low as the single digits to
lower 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 143 AM EST Monday...Some lingering upslope snow showers
will continue to be possible tomorrow, but coverage will be
limited to terrain in northern Vermont, and snow will not
accumulating as much as high pressure noses into the region.
Overall flow will remain northwesterly and it may take some time
for the lower levels to dry out. Temperatures on Tuesday
afternoon will range from the 30s to lower 40s, then falling to
the teens and 20s Tuesday night. Wednesday looks to be a dry day
of increasing sunshine and highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s as
high pressure is finally stretched across the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1237 PM EST Monday...High pressure will continue overhead by
mid to late week keeping temperatures on the mild side for fall
standards. Highs Tuesday and Friday will be in the low 40s with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s to near 30. Our flow pattern
becomes zonal and southerly by Thursday with continued drying,
though still cloudy, conditions. Our next system arrives Friday,
with new guidance suggesting a drier system with a break in the jet
stream. While the GFS shows a single jet streak moving over the
region associated with this system, the ECMWF depicts two weaker
streaks, one over the North Country, and another to our south more
over the Mid-Atlantic. This break is looking more likley in a run to
run analysis which would lead to a weaker more scattery system for
Friday into Saturday. Ensemble guidance varies from a few tenths to
a quarter to half an inch between the EPS and GEFS. Precipitation
type variability also remains, though less so in recent model runs.
Some shallow residual cold air near the International Border and
Northeast Kingdom, and near summits should be able to keep snow for
a few hours Friday before a switch to all rain occurs by the
afternoon. A wintry mix cannot be ruled out in the cold hollows of
the northern portions of the region as well. Furthermore, breaks in
the precipitation could lead to some mixed down breezy conditions
Friday into Friday night between showers. Gusts right now look to be
confined to the higher summits of the Adirondacks and Greens, and
locations near Lake Champlain. The system quickly exits the area by
Saturday afternoon with some light lingering upslope rain/snow
showers in the Adirondacks and northern Greens through the weekend
as cyclonic flow persists.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions exist across
the region as upslope snow continues but begins to weaken. Upslope
snow showers at SLK/MPV/EFK will continue through at least 00Z, and
perhaps to 06Z at EFK, however, the intensity of the snow is
beginning to wain and taper down. Vsbys have generally been to 3SM,
with a few minutes possible of IFR at SLK, but not long enough to
mention in the TAF. Vsbys should continue to improve towards 6SM
over the next few hours with only PROB30 groups used for any more
moderate snow showers. Ceilings will remain MVFR to near 2000ft agl
at SLK/EFK/MPV and at times MSS, through the TAF period. There could
be some occasional breaks at MSS at 3000ft agl towards 06-12Z, but
prevailing cigs should remain MVFR. West/northwest winds will
continue to be breezy for the next 6hrs before gusts weaken towards
10-15kts by early tomorrow. With Froude numbers still at or above
1.25, flow will be mostly unblocked which gives higher confidence to
prevailing VFR conditions through the TAF period in the valley sites
of PBG/BTV/RUT. Brief LLWS near the mountain summits may leak
towards SLK tonight, but it will be short lived. Improvements at all
sites to VFR look likely by the end of the TAF period tomorrow.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for all areas of Lake
Champlain with northwesterly winds 15 to 30 knots, becoming
westerly this afternoon with gusts as high as 35 to 40 knots
possible. Waves will be around 2 to 5 feet, subsiding slightly
to 1 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Strong winds as high as 20 to
25 knots are forecast to continue tonight.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
MARINE...Storm
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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