000
FXUS61 KBTV 030503
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1203 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 149 PM EST Monday...

Brief mixed precipitation is possible late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning, mainly across central/southern Vermont.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 149 PM EST Monday...

1. A light snowfall is likely across much of the area late
Tuesday afternoon through the early overnight, possibly ending
as a brief period of mixed precipitation and/or drizzle/freezing
drizzle until sunrise Wednesday.

2. Confidence in widespread precipitation for the end of the
week continues to increase, along with the potential for wintry
mix and rain.

3. Anomalously warm temperatures, rain, and snowmelt likely for
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 149 PM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: After high pressure exits the region tonight
into Tuesday morning, a weak wave of low pressure will lift a
remnant warm front from the Ohio Valley across the Mid-Atlantic
states and central/southern portions of New England Tuesday
afternoon and evening. As mentioned by the previous forecaster,
the track and timing of precipitation has been pretty consistent
from model run to run, but where uncertainly remains is how far
north a warm layer aloft will track. Currently consensus points
to the warm nose moving as far north as central Rutland/Windsor
counties which will support a brief period of mixed
precipitation from 03-09Z Wednesday where snow, freezing
rain/drizzle are the likely ptypes. To the north, a wet snow
will generally be the dominant ptype, but a growing dry slot in
the DGZ early Wednesday morning could support northern areas
finishing as spotty drizzle and/or freezing drizzle as well.

In general, this looks to be mainly a nuisance event with
isothermal low level profiles supporting a wet (6-8:1) light
snow of a dusting to 2", and some very light icing across
Rutland/Windsor counties, mainly on elevated surfaces. Travel
may be impacted overnight, but it should be noted that road
surface temperature forecasts remain above freezing through much
of the event which should limit impacts as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2: There remains no significant changes in the
forecast for late this week, with continued confidence in
chances for widespread precipitation both Thursday into Friday.
Model guidance is in good agreement that a surface low will tack
through the Ohio Valley and approach our region by late
Thursday. The concern remains to be precipitation type. Most
areas in the northern portions of the area should start off as
mainly snow, but light easterly flow from an area of high
pressure north of Maine would keep cold air locked in place east
of the Greens and perhaps into portions of the Champlain Valley
and the the northern St. Lawrence Valley. Modest 850mb
southerly flow will advect warm air overtop of the cold air
locked at the surface, resulting in a period of wintry mix, with
freezing rain in the aforementioned areas. Cold air will likely
hang on longer than the models have initialized, which bodes
some confidence in a period of wintry mix over prevailing rain,
and perhaps a longer period of snow east of the Greens.
Furthermore, there is increasing confidence in cold air damming
developing as the Thursday system arrives. The best chance for
any precipitation will be south of US- 4, but most of the region
should see some shower activity. Subtle changes to the Highs
position, and low track will have significant impacts to the
precipitation type. Please be sure to follow future forecast
updates, especially if you will be traveling later Thursday into
Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The end of week surface low will wash out along
a stalled boundary to the south of the region Friday as it runs
into the high. This will set up our weather for the weekend with
lingering moisture in the warm sector of an approaching
shortwave trough from the northern Plains. Lingering moisture in
the warm sector should remain aloft with continued
south/southwesterly flow, however, cold air damming will remain
with our high locked over the Canadian Maritimes, and coupled
with diurnal cooling, continued shower chances Friday night into
Saturday cannot be ruled out. The ptype remains uncertain, but
with the aforementioned factors, a light wintry mix with
freezing drizzle is possible into Saturday morning. The Plains
shortwave will approach the area Saturday with a tightening
pressure gradient blocked against the Greens with prevailing
CAD. As a result, Saturday looks to be fairly breezy with strong
waa and a 60-80kt 850mb jet overhead. A cold front looks to
pass through sometime late Saturday with widespread rain
expected. Current ensemble PWATs are nearing 1" areawide with
the highest amounts across the St. Lawrence Valley. There is
still considerable model spread with shower coverage and
intensity, so be sure to continue to monitor the forecast,
especially if planning any recreational activities with the
warmer weather.

Regardless of the above uncertainty, it does still look like we
should see much warmer temperatures for the weekend with highs
surging into the 50s, with low to mid 40s for mountain summits.
Lows will remain above freezing through the weekend. Total
rainfall doesn`t look overly concerning at this point, though
rainfall with snowmelt will result in runoff into area rivers.
An initial perusal of potential thawing degree hours for Friday
through Sunday shows a range of 500 to 800 hours, which could be
enough to cause some river ice movement. While widespread river
ice breakup isn`t expected, we`ll continue to monitor trends
moving forward. Near normal temperatures and continued shower
chances will extend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...High pressure will result in clear skies
and light winds for the next 6 to 12 hours, before clouds
thicken and lower toward 18z Tues. A band of light snow will
overspread our central and southern TAF sites between 21z-03z
this evening. Expect sharply falling vis to IFR with cigs
trending toward mvfr by 00z. As low level moisture increases
areas of IFR cigs will be possible toward 06z Weds. Wind become
south/southeast with localized gusts up to 20 knots at BTV/RUT
and mostly southwest at MSS, before becoming light again on Tues
evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lahiff
DISCUSSION...Lahiff/Danzig
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV