627
FXUS61 KBTV 221800
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
100 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring seasonably cold temperatures to the
North Country today. Expect some light snow showers to redevelop
this afternoon across the northern Adirondacks into northern
Vermont associated with a weak mid-level trough. A separate
clipper system approaching from the Great Lakes region will
bring steady light snow to the region starting during the day on
Tuesday, and continuing into Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
Several inches of snow accumulation will likely bring at least
some minor travel impacts to the North Country during this time
period. Quieter conditions are expected for Christmas Eve and
Christmas Day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 138 AM EST Monday...Surface ridge axis over sern Ontario
and the ern Great Lakes region will shift ewd this morning. The
surface map is somewhat deceptive, as a band of mid-level
moisture will also be shifting into our region on nwly 700-500mb
flow by the midday hours. Despite weak large-scale forcing,
looking at a combination of low-level swly upslope flow into the
Adirondacks and potential saturated DGZ with 00Z HRRR
indicating DGZ depths of 7-9kft developing across the northern
Adirondacks during the mid-late morning hours. As such,
indicating increasing cloud cover and a period of light snow -
mainly across nrn NY zones this afternoon. Snow accumulations
will be light, generally an inch or less, but again, somewhat
deceptive situation given sfc ridge axis cresting overhead.
Elsewhere, may see a few light snow showers this afternoon
across nwrn/n-central VT as well, with little or no
accumulation. After a chilly start with daybreak temps in the
single digits to lower teens areawide, will only get into the
23-28F range for highs in most locations this aftn. Temperatures
may locally remain in the teens across far nern VT.
Mostly cloudy conditions remain in place tonight, but with
shallower moist layer not expecting more than a few flurries for
the balance of the night. It will be toward daybreak Tuesday
that the next shortwave trough brings redeveloping snowfall
across far wrn CWA (i.e., St Lawrence County), but appears that
will mostly hold off until during the daylight hours Tuesday.
With lingering cloudiness, overnight lows won`t be quite as cold
tonight...mainly in the upper teens to lower 20s from the
Champlain Valley wwd across all of nrn NY. East of the Green
Mountains, lows in the low-mid teens are expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 138 AM EST Monday...Forecast remains on track with
approaching clipper system from the central Great Lakes region
bringing a prolonged period of steady light snow beginning
during the day Tuesday and continue thru the first half of
Wednesday. Appears snow will begin to overspread northern NY
during the mid-late morning hours Tuesday, and then overspread
VT mainly during the afternoon hours, where PoPs is in the
80-100% range. It is noteworthy that the 00Z HRRR is more
bullish with low-level WAA and potential above freezing layer
aloft resulting in potential mixed precipitation across nrn NY
and rain across far swrn St. Lawrence County by 21Z Tuesday.
While this is a possible, the HRRR is an outlier in the 00Z NWP
guidance suite, and have kept precipitation type as all snow
across the region. Temperatures get near to slightly above
freezing in the valleys Tuesday, and that may result in some
reduction of snow accumulations with lower SLRs in the Champlain
Valley and St. Lawrence Valley in particular.
As trough axis passes thru Tuesday evening, flow eventually
becomes more nwly with better orographic snow potential Tuesday
night into the first half of Wednesday. This will help drive up
snow accumulations across the higher elevations with this event.
All in all, expecting 2-4" in most valley locations, with 4-8"
across the Adirondacks and higher summits of the Green Mtns. If
orographic snow is maximized, may see some localized higher
totals from Mt. Mansfield nwd to Jay Peak. Snow rates are not
expected to be excessive, but likely a winter weather advisory
situation for the northern Adirondacks and portions of central
and n-central/nern VT. With snow not beginning until Tuesday,
will allow dayshift to take a look at the latest guidance to
make any adjustments before deciding on headlines. Those with
travel plans Tues/Tues Night and the first half of Wednesday
should expect at least minor travel impacts, especially across
higher terrain areas. Allow extra time to reach your destination
during this time frame.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1257 PM EST Monday...Some light snow is expected for
Christmas day as an upper level shortwave and weak surface low
crosses along the international border. Best chance for snow
showers will be along the spine of the northern Green mountains.
At this point only expecting a couple of inches of snow at
most. Snow showers will wind down Thursday night. We will have a
brief break in precipitation for the daytime hours on Friday.
Next system approaches our area for Friday night as a low
pressure passes south of our region from the Ohio river valley
eastward. There has not been a lot of model to model or run to
run consistency with this feature yet, but will have a better
idea as we get closer to the end of the week. For now have light
snow in the forecast. Weather looks drier and quieter on
Saturday, then another system will cross our region from
northwest to southeast with precipitation spreading into our
area Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will warm above
freezing on Sunday, therefore may have rain or mixed
precipitation to contend with. At this time we are much too far
out to get overly detailed with precipitation type, but this
will be something that we`re watching. Upper trough will remain
over our region as this low exits to the southeast, therefore
snow showers will carry us into the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18z Tuesday...Warm air advection snow showers currently
moving across the region. MSS and SLK are both IFR as of 18z
with visibilities below 2 miles in the heavier snow. The rest of
the region has VFR conditions as dry air remains and virga is
falling overhead. The low levels should become saturated, albeit
slowly. Ceilings will fall to MVFR 2000- 3000ft agl at all
sites by at least 22Z. MSS/EFK/SLK could see ceilings 1500-2000
ft agl during the peak of the warm frontal shower activity
between 18-22Z. 2SM vsbys could be possible even at BTV with
froude numbers showing semi-blocked flow. Ceilings will remain
MVFR through tonight with snow showers briefly tapering off
before returning with a larger area of widespread snow by
Tuesday morning at the end of the TAF period.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Christmas Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Friday: VFR. Definite SN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
The temperature sensor at Massena ASOS/Richards Field has been
reading too high. Technicians have plans to visit the site to
diagnose the issue in the next couple days.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>020.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for NYZ029>031-034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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