894
FXUS61 KBTV 110630
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
130 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Upslope snow showers will continue through tonight in parts of the
northern Adirondacks and Greens. Strong winds will also continue
into Friday. Mostly dry weather should persist Friday, before a
clipper brings snow showers for late Saturday and Sunday. The colder
and active pattern will continue into next week with a few
additional chances for snow, though no big snowstorms are expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 125 AM EST Thursday...The cold front is slowly moving across
the region, having passed through much of northern New York already.
It will move through Vermont in the next few hours. The center of
the low is likely currently over the far northern Champlain Valley,
and it will continue tracking to the northeast as the night goes on.
As the flow becomes westerly to northwesterly on the backside, there
should be a brief period of light to moderate snow for northern
areas. However, dry air quickly builds in behind that and the
synoptically forced snow should end pretty quickly. Moisture
eventually wraps around the low as it travels slowly across Quebec
and into Atlantic Canada, and it should back down into northern
areas during the day. This will begin a period of upslope snow
showers. They should continue through Thursday night, with the
heaviest snow in the evening and early part of the night. Several
inches are expected in the far northern Greens and Adirondacks, with
not much elsewhere. Westerly flow will help keep the moisture
restricted to the more northern areas and unblocked flow will cause
most of the snow to fall along and east of the mountains. The
winners will be the Jay Peak area down into Westfield where around
10 inches is in the forecast. Snow ratios look to be quite high for
the rest of the night before decreasing during the day as cooling
profiles send the DGZ into the unsaturated boundary layer. The
upslope snow will taper off going into Friday as the deep moisture
exits, but lingering shallow moisture and cyclonic flow could cause
a few light showers to continue into the morning. Strong winds will
develop behind the front from a strong pressure gradient and mixing
in the cold air advection. Gusts between 25 to 40 mph are expected.
These winds will cause blowing snow in places, particularly in some
of the mountain passes in the northern Greens, so use caution if
driving in these areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 AM EST Thursday...The upslope snow should be completely
done by Friday night as very subtle ridging briefly builds in.
However, continued large scale cyclonic flow and some lingering
clouds will keep temperatures from falling very far Friday night.
Another clipper builds into the region late in the day Saturday,
causing some light snow showers to develop across northern New York.
The system will be weak and moisture starved, but some light
accumulations are possible. Southerly winds will develop again
during the day Saturday, but they will be less strong than during
the system yesterday due to a much weaker low. This will lead to
less downsloping, but with weaker synoptic forcing, there will
likely still be some terrain shadowing.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 AM EST Thursday...A positively tilted mid/upper lvl trof
prevails acrs the NE CONUS and Great Lakes thru early next week,
which wl result in high confidence of below normal temps and chances
for snow showers. Potent s/w energy wl help to sharpen trof and
develop weak sfc low pres along the mid Atlantic Coast on Sunday,
while cold sfc high pres is located over the central Plains. The
combination of synoptic scale ascent from s/w energy, developing
upslope flow and moderately strong low level caa, wl produce on and
off snow showers acrs the region Sat night thru Sunday. Several
inches of snow is likely in the higher trrn during this time frame.
Given sfc high pres is expected to slide to our south, instead of
directly overhead wl result in more wind on Sunday into Monday,
along with persistent clouds given the northwest flow aloft. In
addition, this should help to keep temps in check and from
completely bottoming out like a few days ago. Highs in the upper
teens to mid 20s on Sunday, drop back into the single digits and
teens on Monday with blustery winds, creating wind chills in the
single digits above and below zero. Lows btwn 5 and 15 above
expected on Sunday night due to clouds and winds, but drop back into
the -5F to +10F range on Monday night.
Large scale synoptic signals continues to support a significant
pattern change by mid to late week as mid/upper lvl trof is replaced
by building ridge with much warmer temps. As the pattern change
evolves expect several hours of light precip, initially as snow
showers, but with increasing thickness and thermal profiles a wintry
mix to rain is likely at some point next week. For now have just a
mention of rain/snow showers for next week with temps warming into
the 30s to near 40F. Also, feel llvl cold air in protected deeper
valleys east of the Greens wl be stubborn to scour out, even with
warming 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles. It always takes longer than
expected, especially given our recent cold spell and associated snow
pack.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Active period of weather impacting the
aviation community over the next 6 to 18 hours. Surface cold
front entering the Champlain Valley at 06z, will produce a
quick period of snow with IFR visibilities likely, along with a
wind shift to the northwest. These conditions will impact
EFK/MPV between 07z and 10z, before exiting VT by 12z this
morning. As winds shift to the northwest localized gusts 20 to
30 knots can be anticipated at many taf sites today into this
evening. This upslope direction will continue to produce on and
off snow showers with intervals of IFR conditions likely at SLK
and MSS, with a mix of VFR/MVFR at our other sites. IFR vis in
1-3SM snow showers may linger until after 00z Friday at SLK,
given the flow and moisture. Temperatures currently at or
slightly above freezing at BTV will fall sharply this morning
below freezing, causing some potential for additional ice and
snow on the runaway. Conditions slowly improve to VFR at
RUT/PBG/MPV and BTV by mid to late morning.
Currently not receiving observations from EFK, so included amd
not sked.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong westerly to northwesterly winds will develop later
tonight and continue into the day Friday. Sustained winds will
generally range between 20-30 KTs, with higher gusts. The larger
westerly component to the winds will limit waves a bit, but they
will still generally be in the 1-3 foot range, with a few higher
waves possible Thursday night. Winds eventually lower late
Friday into Friday night, dropping into the 5-15 KT range. This
will lower waves down to around 1 foot.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for VTZ003-006-
016.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ029>031.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
|
