122
FXUS61 KBTV 231819
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
219 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 218 PM EDT Thursday...
No major changes have been made with the forecast. Dry and breezy
conditions continue to make for fire weather concerns this afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 218 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Dry and breezy conditions will continue, making for
elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. Dry weather and
seasonable temperatures are expected to continue for the remainder
of the week into the weekend.
2. High pressure keeps us dry through Tuesday. Rain showers
possible Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 218 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1:
Dry and breezy conditions prevail across the region this afternoon
as northwesterly flows continues to usher in a drier airmass, making
for near critical fire weather conditions. Relative humidity values
this afternoon have dropped into the 20 to 30 percent range, with
wind gusts generally in the 15 to 25 mph range, although a few
locally higher gusts have been observed at times. If any fires were
to start this afternoon, the combination of weather and fuel
conditions could quickly get out of control and be difficult to
contain. Dry conditions will persist for Friday, with minimum
relative humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range for much of
the area. Winds will be weaker for Friday as the pressure gradient
begins to slacken, with gusts of 10 to 15 mph expected, which will
limit fire weather concerns for tomorrow. Heading into the weekend,
the dry weather is expected to continue as the region remains under
the influence of high pressure. Temperatures will generally be near
seasonable normals for late April, with daytime highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s and overnight lows in the 30s to mid 40s, making for
relatively pleasant spring weather this weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The long term forecast continues to be quiet, with a
high pressure system allowing temperatures to reach into the lower
60s during the early part of next week for much of the region. A low
pressure system will move northeast off the Great Lakes Tuesday,
with PoPs increasing from west to east Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Models continue to be aligned with the primary low moving well to
our north, leaving us with an elongated swath of higher PWATs. Given
the narrow band of PWATs and the high translational speed of the
system rain totals won`t be high, but a good wetting rain should
help mitigate any fire weather concerns for the entire CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF
period. The lowest ceilings in our CWA are around 5,000ft in the
vicinity of EFK. Those clouds will slowly move westward through the
evening hours, reaching terminals throughout northern Vermont before
clearing overnight. We`re also watching some NW winds gusting near
25kts throughout the area. These winds will abate overnight as well.
Tomorrow should be more of the same with VFR conditions persisting
but even lighter winds.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Langbauer/Kremer
AVIATION...Langbauer
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