393
FXUS61 KBTV 251109
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
709 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 655 AM EDT Wednesday...
Quick early morning update to reflect slightly warmer
temperatures in many locations that stayed overcast in the
overnight hours. Consequently, many parts of northern NY and
northern VT did not get quite as cold overnight as expected.
Otherwise, forecast is on track with just some widely scattered
snow showers coming to an end over the next few hours.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 229 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. Rain showers Thursday into Friday with snow showers possible
on the front and back ends.
2. Brief cold spell early this weekend, then becoming warmer.
Unsettled weather continues with multiple chances for precipitation
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 229 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A warm front moves through tonight into tomorrow
morning, bringing the chance for a few snow showers. A slushy
coating is possible across northern areas and the higher terrain but
precipitation will be limited and temperatures will be around and
above freezing during its passage. A warm nose will also build in so
in any pockets of remaining below freezing surface temperatures,
notably the St. Lawrence Valley, a brief period of freezing rain is
possible. Ice accumulations would be limited to a couple hundreths
of an inch, but it would still be enough to potentially cause
slippery travel on untreated surfaces. A dry slot looks to develop
for much of the day on Thursday, though lingering showers are
possible across northern areas. Temperatures rise well above
freezing on Thursday, likely even in the mountains. This looks to
melt most of the snow outside the higher elevations. A round of rain
will pass through Thursday evening and night with the cold front,
and could briefly end as snow. The rain and snowmelt will cause
river rises, but with QPF currently looking to be around a half inch
and dew points mostly topping out in the upper 30s and low 40s,
flooding is not expected. However, as shown in the ensemble river
forecasts, the East Branch of the Ausable, Mad and Winooski Rivers
could approach action stage. Ensemble guidance is converging on a
slightly faster passage of the rain and some is beginning to keep
the heaviest farther south, so the maximum stage has decreased
slightly and it would not be surprising if this trend continues. The
higher end ensemble members are trending toward the means that do
not bring any rivers to action. Gusty southerly winds are expected
on Thursday, especially in the Champlain Valley due to channeling
and in the northern Adirondacks due to downsloping, but they should
be too weak to cause power outages or damage.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Friday and Saturday will quite cold before temperatures
warm up Sunday onwards. 850 mb temps will fall to -20C by Friday
night behind the cold front. The coldest temperatures during this
stretch will occur Friday night/Saturday morning, when overnight
lows will reach the single digits for much of the area, and low to
mid teens for the valleys. These temperatures are around 10-20
degrees below normal for this time of year, but should remain around
5-15 degrees above daily record lows. Temperatures will warm back
to around normal by Sunday, remaining near or above normal for early
next week.
Temperatures aside, the overall weather pattern will remain active
with continued fast northwesterly flow aloft. This leaves us open
to multiple shortwaves moving through, bringing several chances
for precipitation along with some breezy conditions...though no
high impact systems are forecast for the next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Widely scattered light snow showers are
coming to an end, and dry conditions are expected through 00Z.
Some brief MVFR ceilings will continue at KSLK and could briefly
develop at KBTV for a few more hours, otherwise widespread VFR
ceilings expected through 00Z. After 00Z, ceilings begin to
lower towards MVFR as a warm front pushes through. Expect some
scattered rain and snow showers between 03Z and 12Z, with some
brief freezing rain possible at KMSS. In addition to
precipitation and lowering ceilings, gusty south winds will
develop this evening into the overnight hours. Gusts between 03Z
and 12Z will be in the 15 to 25 knot range, with slightly higher
gusts expected beyond the 24 hour TAF period (after 12Z
Thursday). A southwesterly low level jet will also move overhead
overnight, allowing for the development of LLWS at all TAF sites
by 07Z.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
RA, Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio Transmitter on Mt. Mansfield has been
fixed.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Duell
AVIATION...Duell
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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