245
FXUS61 KBTV 090559
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1259 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Gradually warming weather is expected over the next few days.
Light rain will unfold Friday and Friday evening as temperatures
reach their peak. Gusty southwest winds are also expected,
followed by briefly colder conditions on Saturday. After mostly
quiet conditions much of the day, snow and a wintry mix will
lift back northwards late Saturday evening into early Sunday
morning. A breezy day on Sunday will precede a cold front with
showers during the afternoon. Then, more seasonable to somewhat
above normal temperatures will return with snow showers opening
the new work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 PM EST Thursday...Patchy fog is forming in valleys
after today`s snowmelt and clearing of skies. Some locations
have reported localized dense fog. These conditions will persist
for a few hours until moisture refreezes completely with
potential for some valleys to have fog for much of the night.
With temperatures falling below freezing, fog may deposit on
surfaces as a thin layer of ice potentially creating slick
conditions on elevations surfaces like bridges and overpasses.
Previous Discussion...For the rest of today, ever so slowly
decreasing cloud cover will give way to some breaks with
temperatures generally above freezing. Guidance insists on
enough clearing to radiate out, but HREF cloud cover progs keeps
me skeptical. Continued the theme of using raw, hourly data
against the typical diurnal curve. Sheltered hollows of the
Adirondacks and the Upper Valley that clear out still have the
potential to fall into the teens to lower 20s, but most will
remain near freezing under clouds before south winds initiate
the more noticeable warm up. Increasingly dry low-level
conditions embedded in the upper ridge axis will settle in as
surface high pressure slides off the Mid- Atlantic.
Friday will be warm and windy. Guidance has trended upwards
with regards to the strength of the LLJ, with values bumping up
towards 65-70 knots. The core of highest winds remains in the
inversion, but there still looks to be about southwest winds of
45-50 knots at 925mb beneath an inversion around 2000 ft. It`s
not necessarily ideal for strong mixing, but HREF and REFS
guidance probabilities of gusts greater than 50 knots are
highlight the common trouble spots for southwest winds - the
Route 11 corridor and the immediate shores of Lake Champlain. So
a Wind Advisory has been issues 10 AM Fri to 1 AM Saturday with
gusts early in the afternoon likely in the 35-45 mph range
within the Advisory area.
Rain will quickly shift east with a sharp, narrow plume of
moisture, and is still expected to make a hasty departure after
dropping 0.10- 0.25" of rain. Snow will efficiently get eaten up
by the winds and the warm temperatures, but rainfall amounts of
this quantity are not likely enough to cause significant
issues. Cold air quickly rushes in, and unfortunately, it
appears that it does so while fast mid- level flow remains in
place. Post-frontal height rises and increasingly mixed low-
level conditions will produce a second bout of strong gusts.
This should result in one last push of very gusty winds
immediately following the front, with values likely reaching 50
mph, perhaps approaching 55 mph from Malone through Ellenburg,
NY depending on the strength of the boundary. This post frontal
air mass will bring cool air rushing in, but by Saturday
morning, it will still probably range from the mid 20s to mid
30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 132 PM EST Thursday...Much of Saturday is expected to be
dry. Northwest flow will quickly break down, and so however cold
we get Saturday morning will be how cold we`ll likely be for
whatever comes next. Temperatures will rise a few degrees into
the mid to upper 30s with very dry air in the region owing to a
broad, stretched out 1028-1030mb surface high building across
eastern Canada. Precipitation will lift north Saturday evening
after facing some initial resistance from dry air, but it will
help provide some wet- bulb cooling. P-Type should be snow at
onset. A double barrel low situation will evolve with low
pressure developing off Mid-Atlantic tracking towards the New
England Coastline. So warm advection will decrease some, but
eventually by Saturday night, it will be far enough that some of
the warmer mid-level conditions associated with the parent low
will entrain. We`ll see how much, but a mix will likely develop
over portions of the region heading into Sunday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 132 PM EST Thursday...
* Key Point: Frozen precipitation areawide, likely in the form
of snow, anticipated Sunday, with accumulating snow possible.
A classic double barrel system will continue into the day
Sunday with an occluding parent low and a developing coastal low
off southern New England. It continues to look more likely that
the coastal low will become the dominant feature of the two
overall, which will continue the trend of a more colder solution
for Sunday in terms of precipitation types. Precipitation is
likely to fall as snow Sunday with a split snow consistency
across Vermont and New York. New York will largely continue to
be influenced by the parent low with more of a dry fluffier snow
and higher snow ratios towards 10-15:1. However in Vermont and
the CPV, southeasterly flow from the dominating coastal low will
lead to lower snow ratios (8-10:1) and a wetter snow in the
morning before winds become west/northwest with colder and drier
air helping to increase snow ratios by Sunday evening. Although
temperatures will reach highs in the mid 30s Sunday, wet-
bulbing should be able to allow for most of the region to see
mainly snow. However, locations near Lake Champlain, such as
Grand Isle, St. Albans. and downtown Burlington, could see a mix
of rain and snow at times, mainly near midday Sunday. As the
coastal low departs east, the parent upper low will shift east
as well leading to prevailing westerly flow areawide. Winds
increase in the downslope regions of the eastern Adirondacks and
eastern Greens as the parent low upper level jet traverses the
region. Gusty winds up to 20 to 30 mph will be possible. With
the parent low passage, an associated vort max continues to look
promising in terms of available lift with the potential for
isolated snow squalls Sunday night. The NAM12 solution depicts
up to 100J/kg of CAPE Sunday afternoon into the evening across
northern New York and central and northern Vermont before
weakening into the Northeast Kingdom. There should be some
moisture around with mild enough temperatures to support showers
and embedded squalls Sunday evening with the potential for
additional travel impacts.
Subtle northwesterly flow late Sunday night into Monday morning
across the northern Greens could lead to some localized upslope
showers with enhancement from some weak orographic lift. Into
parts of New York, however, southwesterly flow will be favorable
for a lake effect band to form off Lake Ontario, leading to
localized light to moderate snow in south/southeastern St.
Lawrence County Sunday into Sunday night. However, the bulk of
the moisture will be dragged along with the upper low, so expect
only a few inches across the upslope higher terrain and in
regions under the lake effect snow band. The pattern beyond the
weekend looks to be a bit unsettled, but on the mild side with a
series of weak ridges and troughs. Temperatures will be mild
with highs into the low to mid 30s for much of early next week.
The bulk of the weekend precipitation should taper off Monday,
but linger in the St. Lawrence Valley. Locations that could see
the best chances for precipitation in the extended will be
across the St. Lawrence Valley and northern Greens as a long
wave trough will eject several shortwaves along the St. Lawrence
Valley and International Border. Shadowing and a dry slot
across the CPV and Vermont could limit the overall spatial
extent of these shower chances, but expect broken to overcast
skies to continue through next week. It is January in northern
New York and Vermont after all, but the sun will return someday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...High clouds are moving into the area and
fog is starting to be less prevalent. Temperatures are also
falling and slowing melt which was aiding the fog formation. MPV
currently only site still IFR or lower with 1/4SM Visby. Otherwise,
LLWS will be the primary threat beginning after 12Z with
surface gusts increasing through the forecast period. A low
level jet will cross the region with south-southwest flow up to
55kts at 925mb and 70kts at 850mb supporting strong shear
across northern New York and Vermont. SFC gusts on the order of
35+ kts are possible, especially for PBG/SLK where southerly
flow will be channeled in the Champlain Valley. Turbulence will
continue to be a factor above 850 mb given the strength of the
jet extending above ridge level. Rain will move into the area
from west to east after 12z today, exiting to our west by
about 00z. Have also accounted for showers at each site as the
precipitation moves through.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Definite SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: MVFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Saturday for
NYZ027-030-031.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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