162
FXUS61 KBTV 221733
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1233 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be dry and seasonable with variable cloudiness
today as weak high pressure noses in. Light snow will spread across
the region on Sunday from west to east, with minor accumulations
from a coating to 2 inches by Monday morning. Unsettled weather,
mainly in the form of light rain, will resume late Tuesday with
chances of precipitation continuing through Thanksgiving.
Temperatures will likely peak on Wednesday, with otherwise
seasonable weather expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 750 AM EST Saturday...Have issued a quick update this
morning, mainly to add patchy fog to the forecast for another
few hours. Fog has been quite dense in spots in some of the
favored river valleys, and expect it will likely be slow to
dissipate with the high cloud cover and low sun angle. It should
be noted that road surfaces and air temperatures are near to
below freezing in a lot of areas, so there could be a bit of
black ice where the fog has been thickest, especially on raised
surfaces like bridges. The only other change with this update
was to increase cloud cover over central and southern areas
based on current satellite imagery. Otherwise, the forecast
remains in good shape this morning.

Previous discussion...GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows two
areas of interest today passing to our north and south, leaving
us in no man`s land with no active weather. The system to our
north will provide us with cyclonic flow/northwest flow aloft,
but with anti-cyclonic low level flow, moisture will be very
shallow with no low level lift, hence it will be a dry day in
spite of lingering cloudiness. Meanwhile the system to our south
is responsible for a broad area of high clouds, which will
depart south and east of Vermont by around noon, such that
portions of our region, especially the Upper Valley and southern
Champlain Valley, may become sunny this afternoon. With weak
cold air advection during day from the northwest, generally
northern New York will be a little colder relative to normal
than Vermont today, but all and all a seasonable day is on tap
yet again with temperatures in the 30s and 40s for highs.

Tonight temperatures will fall off pretty quickly with light winds
where skies clear out, but should level off and/or rise as the next
batch of clouds overspreads the region from the west overnight. Mid-
level clouds will eventually lower, largely coinciding with the
onset of light snow tomorrow morning as the column saturates.
See short-term section of AFD for more on the precipitation
event.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 141 AM EST Saturday...Have used light snow wording in the
forecast given a broad area of weak ascent out ahead of a minor
low pressure system on Sunday. Most modeled radar simulations
show largely under 20dbZ echoes, with perhaps a period of
slightly heavier precipitation towards evening as the low
crosses our area. The snow production zone will be pretty high
up initially (roughly 700-600 millibars), and lower a bit with
time, leading to seasonably average snow ratios, about 12-14:1.
Given light precipitation rates, in which maximum snowfall rates
will be only about 0.25"/hour and mostly 0.1"/hour, and light
winds aloft, expect a snow globe type of appearance to the
snowfall. Additionally, wet- bulb temperatures in lowest
elevations could climb above freezing at the surface, limiting
accumulations to mainly elevated surfaces, especially during the
daytime hours. A light southeasterly wind will help maintain
slightly cooler air east of the Green Mountains, where snow will
have no trouble accumulating when precipitation rates are
sufficient from time to time during the afternoon and especially
evening hours.

Also nudged hourly temperatures closer to dynamical guidance and
away from statistical guidance, with an assumption that steady,
light precipitation outweighs diurnal warming given weak warm
air advection ahead of the incoming trough. Regardless, with 850
millibar temperatures near or below -6 Celsius and moist
adiabatic lapse rates, snow should be the precipitation type
even in instances where the air temperature is as high as 37
degrees. With marginal temperatures and slight warming during
the day ahead of the trough, accumulations will be near zero in
the Champlain Valley, and most of the St. Lawrence Valley,
except if precipitation rates become sufficiently heavy. Note
timing of thicker clouds spreading in from the west will favor
accumulations in northern New York over Vermont; a later
arrival, for instance, of steady light snow in Vermont would
support slightly warmer conditions before precipitation begins.
We also increased precipitation chances generally during the
evening, as deterministic guidance shows some surface
convergence and continued deep moisture present through the
first half of the night. Thereafter as the trough pulls away,
any lingering snow will become more confined to the mountains.
While 925-850 millibar winds will increase out of the west and
become more northwesterly with time, magnitudes will still be
light enough to limit upslope snow. Otherwise favorable
moisture/wind will lead to minor accumulations in the northern
Green Mountains Sunday night into Monday morning. Monday
areawide will trend dry/less cloudy. Temperatures will remain
seasonably cold, but with some sunshine high temperatures should
be closer those on Saturday, ranging from the mid 30s to mid
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Saturday...During the first half of next week, a
mid- to upper level shortwave is expected to approach northern New
York and Vermont from the southwest, riding warm air advection and
return flow high pressure in the Atlantic. This should make for a
seasonably mild but cloudy and murky Tuesday with highs in the 40s
for most and southerly gusts 10-15 knots. Chances of precipitation
increase throughout the day from west to east Tuesday due to a warm
frontal passage. Precip should be largely in the form of rain
outside of the highest peaks due to the mild conditions. Some of
the highest elevations may pick up a half an inch of snow
Tuesday afternoon, but this should be very isolated and subject
to melt heading into an even milder midweek.

Precipitation is anticipated to be most widespread on Tuesday night,
and conditions are forecast to remain mild, cloudy, and dreary
through Wednesday before a cold front swings across the area
sometime Wednesday night/early Thanksgiving morning. Temperatures
will fail to fall below the 30s on Tuesday night under continued
thick cloud cover, rebounding quickly on Wednesday into the mid 40s
to mid 50s. If we reach 50F at the Burlington Airport on Wednesday,
it will be the first 50 degree day since November 8th. Thanks to
continued mild conditions Tuesday night-Wednesday, precipitation
should continue to be in the form of rain with minimal snow
possible, even at the highest elevations of the forecast area.

Temperatures look to eventually cool Wednesday night, but lows still
above seasonal normals on Thanksgiving morning in the mid 20s to mid
30s, leading to snow levels falling throughout the night and
potential for some snow showers even into the wider valleys as a
cold or occluded front associated with vertically stacked low
north of the Great Lakes lifts northeastward away from the
forecast area. Flow will also strengthen out of the west and
southwest on Thanksgiving, likely leading to some lake effect
precipitation across northern New York and potentially beyond
with gusts 20-30 knots possible across the forecast area.

All this said, we`re forecasting a seasonable Thanksgiving with
highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s and the potential for rain and snow,
especially across terrain. Probability of measurable precipitation
on Thursday will greatly depend on your location and elevation.
Those at higher elevations of the Adirondacks and northern Greens as
well as those located across the St. Lawrence Valley have a 40-70%
chance of precipitation, while the wider valleys, especially in
southern/central Vermont and the Connecticut River Valley have a 10-
40% chance.

Cold pool aloft supports additional snow showers towards the end of
the week especially across the northern Adirondacks and the Green
Mtns, as temperatures trend cooler. Significant travel concerns
aren`t currently anticipated, but timing uncertainty of any snow
showers (and possible light snow accumulations) following the
frontal boundary will need to be monitored. We continue to ask that
you please follow the latest forecasts, especially if you have any
travel plans.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Ceilings 1500-3000 feet above ground level are
lingering across northern New York and the Champlain Valley this
afternoon under relatively blocked northwesterly flow, but cigs are
expected to lift to 3500+ feet as we head towards the evening hours
and become progressively unblocked. A few odd snow showers are out
there this afternoon, but these should be few and far between with
weak high pressure nosing into the region from the Ohio Valley.
Winds this afternoon have been somewhat breezy thus far out of the
west/northwest with gusts 15 to 25 knots. By 00Z Sunday, we
anticipate mostly VFR conditions and decreased winds across all
sites through around 13Z-16Z.

Some lingering MVFR level ceilings remain possible at places like
SLK and EFK across the terrain through the 24 hour TAF period, but
it`s hard to say how widespread clouds and cloud cover will be in
these locations. Could be bouncing between BKN035 to SCT025, then
BKN025 to SCT035. Winds will be turning from northwesterly to
southerly throughout the night and into tomorrow morning but should
largely remain under 10 knots. Light snow and rain will spread
across the region Sunday afternoon from west to east, with minor
accumulations from a coating to 2 inches by Monday morning. We`ll
see the beginning of this snow`s arrival in the 12Z-18Z Sunday TAF
period in the form of lowering ceilings and visibilities at northern
New York sites.


Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance RA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA.
Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
Thanksgiving Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
RA, Chance SN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV