409
FXUS61 KBTV 091921
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
221 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 219 PM EST Monday...
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the St. Lawrence
Valley and northern Adirondacks from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM
Wednesday, and for the northern Champlain Valley and spine of the
Greens from 2 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday, for 3 to 6 inches of
snow.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 219 PM EST Monday...
1. A widespread light to locally moderate long duration
snowfall is expected Tuesday through Wednesday with storm total
snowfall of 2 to 6 inches, except locally higher in the mountains. A
quick burst of heavy snow will impact the Tuesday evening commute.
2. Temperatures will be seasonable through most of the week,
then less cold over the weekend. Many locations are likely to reach
32 degrees for the first time in over three weeks.
3. A potential coastal system could impact the region Sunday
into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 219 PM EST Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Similar to last night, the temperature forecast tonight
is challenging with increasing mid/upper level clouds and a shifting
area of high pressure ahead of our next impactful weather system.
Based on last nights temperature distributions, have kept
temperatures near the previous forecast with the coldest hollows
dipping below zero, especially across the Northeast Kingdom where
the area of high pressure will linger the longest. Dry dewpoints
with lingering arctic air, bodes increased confidence in some
persistence forecasting, though unlike last night, southerly flow by
daybreak will limit the total radiative cooling areawide.
Our next weather system arrives tomorrow early to late afternoon
from west to east. This light to moderate long duration snowfall is
expected to drop between 2 to 6 inches of generally fluffy snow.
Guidance continues to prog a period of enhanced mid-level
frontogenesis associated with transient waa, supporting at least a
few hours of heavy snow. The DGZ with this system continues to be a
limiting factor for any more moderate to heavy snows as it is only
progged to be 4-6kft thick at 10000ft agl. Moisture profiles will
struggle to saturate in the mid-levels at the onset of the event due
to lower dewpoints lingering from our departing high pressure.
Furthermore, overall, the moisture content of the system is only
modest with PWATs in both ensembilistic guidance and hi res data to
0.5." It will be quite difficult to eek out higher totals above 6".
Supporting this, NBM probabilities of 6" or more are only 15-25%,
with locally higher against the western facing slopes of the
northern Greens. Another limitation to higher totals will be the
presence of a 850mb southwest low level jet. Model soundings denote
a 40-50kt jet at 850mb with a mean column wind near 20-30kts.
Mountain summits will likely see gusts up to 40-45 knots. This jet
will shred dendrites, but will aid in enhancing frontogenesis on the
leading edge of the system. This frontogenesis band associated with
the occlusion of the surface low, will arrive during the Tuesday
evening commute, between 2-6 PM across northern New York, and 5-9 PM
across the Champlain Valley and northern Greens. The HREF shows this
band could have 1 to 1.5 inch per hour rates, resulting in 1 to 3
inches of heavy snow in this short window moving from west to east.
Travel Tuesday evening will likely see enhanced impacts due to the
timing of this heavier snow band.
As the center of the low shifts east, there is a chance for a brief
dry slot to develop across the southern Champlain Valley and
eastern Vermont which led to leaving these areas out of the
Winter Weather Advisory. Additional reasoning is due to the
potential for blocked flow along the Greens reducing the total
amount of moisture needed to reach advisory criteria. The snow
by late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will turn more
showery as the main forcing shifts east and northwest blocked
flow turn valley snow into more upslope based snow along the
western facing slopes of the northern Greens and northwestern
Adirondacks. Winds will continue to turn north during the day
Wednesday with stronger caa surging south into the Champlain
Valley. A brief period of resurging snow showers is possible by
Wednesday afternoon/evening with froude numbers still below 0.5.
An additional half inch to an inch is possible with these
upslope snow showers and perhaps into portions of the Vermont
Champlain Valley that are closer to Lake Champlain given most of
the lake is currently frozen over. These snow showers will be
less fluffy than the Tuesday snow but will remain light as
surface temperatures will warm to near 30.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Behind the mid week clipper system, temperatures will
return to more seasonable levels with 925mb temperatures near -5C to
-15C. The prolonged trough responsible for our extended cold snap
will be off to our east which will limit any precipitation chances
as we look to sit atop a 1025mb high that will swing to our south.
Temperatures will continue to rise into the weekend ahead of a
southern stream of energy that will approach the region by next
week. Probabilities of reaching above freezing peak on Sunday at 50-
70%, higher across southern Vermont. However, should the high to our
south not be as strong or shift north, and we do not reach 32, this
thaw will end the longest deep freeze since the 2014-2015 winter. In
Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees was
January 22nd; sub-freezing temperature streaks surpassing 21 days
are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening January-
February 2015 and only occurring 20 times going back across the last
141 winter seasons.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Models continue to focus on the potential for a coastal
low to develop late this weekend. There are some big questions for
positioning of major features with model suites split on evolution
of the coastal low and a moderately deep low tracking across
southerly Canada. EPS/NBM are holding onto a phasing of feature
favoring higher chances of precipitation across the Northeast. Other
suites and deterministic runs are less consolidated with a wide
array of results possible. The track of these feature will
completely determine precipitation type for lower elevations and
snowfall/rain amounts. Ensemble probabilities support a lower level
of predictability with the likelihood of 0.1, 0.25, and 0.5 inches
or greater of liquid equivalent all ranging 40-50% across northern
New York/Vermont. On the flip side, the temperature signal is
strongly leaning more towards values greater than 32 degrees for
lower elevations during the day time hours supporting some potential
for mixed precipitation. For now, weather types were kept as a
rain/snow mix since these precip phase predictors are not reliable
at this time scale. The bottom line is that potential for an
impactful system remains, but details are few right now.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will persist through the
forecast period with the region under high pressure. As such, winds
will generally remain light out of the north through sunset with
some light down slope winds overnight. Satellite imagery supports an
encroaching high cloud shield for this afternoon/evening with models
projecting cloud layers decreasing below 10000ft after 12Z Tuesday.
MSS will have best chances of low clouds increasing with a few
showers approaching the terminal at the end of the forecast period.
Southerly gradient winds take over Tuesday with speeds running 5 to
10kts and a few gusts to around 15kts.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if
you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for VTZ001-002-005-006-016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for NYZ028.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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