602
FXUS61 KBTV 181858
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
158 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 158 PM EST Wednesday...No significant changes have been
made.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 158 PM EST Wednesday...
1. Following an extended dry period, widespread snow is
expected to end the week. A burst of heavier snow could impact the
Friday evening commute, followed by some lighter snow lingering
into Saturday.
2. Quiet seasonable weather early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 158 PM EST Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Low level dry air has returned to the area which will be
largely constant through Friday morning, supported by an upper ridge
axis remaining near and just west of our region, and will lead to
seasonably cold conditions especially at night. An area of surface
high pressure will push to our east on Friday while polar high
pressure to our north holds in place while warm air advection
supports widespread precipitation in a classic overrunning
scenario. As the primarily low pressure system to our west
weakens as it passes overhead, the associated trough will be
slow to pass through and help maintain some light snow into
Saturday. Event total snowfall has ticked up a little bit with
the latest forecast with perhaps a better signal for additional
snowfall on Saturday than previously indicated. As the event
begins, model guidance overwhelmingly shows mainly snow as the
precipitation type for most areas, with the exception of early
in the event perhaps enough east/southeasterly flow to have some
rain in portions of southeastern St. Lawrence County as well as
some brief wintry mix in southern portions of Vermont.
There is very good consensus on a thump of heavy snowfall rates,
which will would be in the 1-2"/hour range for a short period of
time as the strongest mid-level frontogenesis translates
northeastward through our region. The heaviest precipitation
rates may be over northeastern New York, but not necessarily
especially more impactful than the snow farther east depending
on timing. Unfortunately the most likely timeframe of the
heavier snowfall will coincide with the evening commute, so
please plan accordingly if traveling. Snow to liquid ratios will
tend to be on the wet side although there are somewhat mixed
signals on the consistency of the snow related to thermal
profiles. Generally expect ratios could be near 10:1, especially
where near surface temperatures begin near freezing, and trend
a drier Friday night. Would note that QPF/snow amounts in this
time range are a little smoothed out to account for model
differences, such that one should not take any 6 hourly snowfall
amounts verbatim. The event total snowfall, currently in the 4
to 7 inch range for most locations, should be somewhat more
predictable. Yet, as for all winter storms, expect some
surprises as we fine tune the forecast. Right now, forecaster
concerns include the degree of low level drying on the northeast
flank of the system eating away at precipitation rates,
potential for more terrain- shadowing/upslope snow if 925-850
millibar flow is stronger with a deeper primarily low to our
west, and more mixed precipitation early in the event.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A nor`easter is expected to miss the region well to the
southeast Sunday into Monday, keeping any significant snow well to
the south. Its only effects would be slightly enhanced winds and
increased clouds. A separate shortwave will try to move into the
region from the Great Lakes on Sunday but at most it would bring a
few light snow showers. These could linger into Monday but any
accumulation would be very light. The next more impactful storm
looks to arrive in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. A low looks to
track by to the west and up the St. Lawrence Valley, but warm-air
advection should be limited ahead of it so much of the precipitation
still looks to fall as snow.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected to mostly prevail
for the next 24 hours. The one exception could be late tonight where
localized fog/mist formation is possible. It would not be to the
extent of this morning but it still cannot be ruled out. The
terminals with the lowest probabilities look to be MSS and RUT as
they will likely keep some wind overnight. Northerly winds today
will gust in the 5-15 KT range today, before going mostly light and
terrain driven overnight. Winds will remain light through the day
tomorrow.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Definite
SN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Myskowski
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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