234
FXUS61 KBTV 201849
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
249 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 238 PM EDT Monday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 238 PM EDT Monday...
1. Unseasonably cold temperatures are expected tonight with a
few localized records possible. Mainly dry conditions will
persist with only a few showers possible late Tuesday into
Wednesday.
2. Quiet weather and seasonable temperatures are expected
through the end of the work week, with increasing chances for
showers towards the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 238 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold, dry airmass is replacing our recent
wetter weather regime as upper level ridging shunts the primary
storm track northeastward into Canada. Afternoon cloud cover
will dissipate with loss of surface heating leaving clear skies
and light winds in place overnight. This will be an ideal setup
for radiational cooling resulting in a quite cold cool off
overnight into Tuesday. Lows are favored to be in the single
digits to teens for the Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont
with upper teens and 20s elsewhere. Very dry conditions will
help temperatures rebound tomorrow into the 40s and low 50s
while supporting low RH ranging 25-40%. Fortunately, winds will
be light and soil moisture will remain high enough to keep fire
weather concerns at bay.
A weak trough will pass Tuesday evening into Wednesday
supporting some elevation dependent showers. Most guidance keeps
shower coverage minimal, but some CAMs do show a few showers
possible for lower valleys. Will keep the forecast pointed
towards drier solutions unless there is a larger shift in
ensembles or more CAMs join the few that are showing wetter
solutions. Temperatures moderate back to seasonal averages
Wednesday with flow turning more southerly. Will keep an eye on
Thursday for potential in an uptick in winds will a few models
suggesting a backdoor, mostly dry front dropping through the
region.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A closed upper low centered over the Canadian Maritimes
will bring relatively dry and seasonably cool temperatures to the
region for the end of the work week. High temperatures will
generally be in the mid 50s to low 60s. Chances for precipitation
will increase heading into the weekend as the upper level low shifts
eastward, although there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the
details at this time given model spread and pattern evolution.
Despite the shower chances, seasonable temperatures are expected to
continue into the weekend and beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the
forecast period, with skies gradually clearing through the evening
into the overnight hours. A few lingering snow showers continue
across the region this afternoon, but give the minimal coverage,
have left any mention of showers out of the forecast as there is low
confidence in any impacts at terminals. Winds this afternoon
continue to be out of the northwest, 5 to 15 knots, with gusts of 18
to 25 knots possible this afternoon. Gusts will diminish towards
this afternoon, with winds trending calm and/or terrain
influenced overnight before becoming more southerly tomorrow
morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Boyd
AVIATION...Kremer
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