098
FXUS61 KBTV 292312
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
612 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 109 PM EST Thursday...
Due to an increase in expected winds tonight and decrease in
expected low temperatures tonight, an Extreme Cold Warning has
been issued for the northern Adirondacks, and the Cold Weather
Advisory was expanded the Champlain Valley. The time frame for
these products was also extended, now 7 PM this evening through
11 AM Friday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 109 PM EST Thursday...
1. Periodic snow showers are possible this afternoon through
Friday night, which may cause lowered visibilities and could
produce a few tenths of an inch of snow accumulation.
2. Dangerously cold wind chills of 15 to 40 degrees below zero
are expected tonight through Friday morning. Limit outdoor
exposure to prevent frostbite and ensure vulnerable populations
have adequate heat.
3. Cold and relatively quiet weather is expected across the
region late this weekend into the beginning of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 109 PM EST Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Favorable convergence can be observed in the
Champlain Valley as surface low pressure moves across Maine and
upper level low pressure stretched across Ontario. Sufficient
moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere are saturating
the snow growth zone on and off this afternoon. Blocked flow is
anticipated to continue into the evening, indicating snow
showers will favor the eastern Champlain Valley and western
slopes of mountains, mainly the Greens.
Snow will be generally light this afternoon, oftentimes more
flurry than snow shower. Friday, Weak milder air and moisture
(aloft) advection along with an upper level shortwave return the
potential of snow showers, mainly in higher terrain. In the
wider valleys, the surface looks too dry for much to develop
with dew points remaining below zero. Total snow amounts through
Friday night will be only a dusting to a few tenths of an inch,
except in the northern Greens, where they could see an inch or
two at higher elevations. Saturday and Saturday night,
widespread dry conditions are expected as high pressure noses
into the region.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures early this afternoon have only
reached the teens for most, with some spots still in the single
digits. These temperatures run about 10-15 degrees below
seasonal averages for late January as a reinforcing shot of cold
air moves into the region this afternoon on northwesterly flow.
Cold air advection should continue through tonight for most
places as the currently stationary boundary shifts southeast,
which should keep the boundary layer coupled and moderate
northwesterly wind around.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the negative teens across
portions of northern New York outside of the Champlain Valley as
well as portions of the Greens and Northeast Kingdom. Elsewhere,
negative single digits are anticipated by Friday morning.
Breezy winds and cold temperatures will likely result in wind
chills 15 to 40 below zero with most intensely cold apparent
temperatures (30 to 40 below zero) forecast for the northern
Adirondacks in New York and north to the international border
where we have upgraded the Cold Weather Advisory to an Extreme
Cold Warning. Outside of this region, the Cold Weather Advisory
has been expanded to include the Champlain Valley due to
increased winds and decreased temperatures based on latest
guidance.
Our Cold Weather Advisory ends late Friday morning, but
conditions remain cold after that with highs in the single
digits above zero and wind chills in the negative single digits
and negative teens. Friday night and Saturday night look cold
with lows 0 to -15 F, a good 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal
averages. Portions of northern New York may need another Cold
Weather Advisory for Friday night with wind chills potentially
as low as 5 to 20 below zero. Saturday`s highs will be slightly
milder than previous days in the teens, but still well below
normal.
KEY MESSAGE 3: In general, a relative cold and quiet weather
pattern is expected across the region late this weekend into
next week. The coastal low expected to develop this weekend
continues to trend further south and out to sea, with no impacts
expected across Vermont and northern New York at this time.
Otherwise, cold and mostly dry weather is expected for the first
portion of next week, with a few snow showers possible across
the high terrain. High temperatures for Monday and Tuesday look
to climb into the teens and 20s, which is closer to
climatological normals for this time of year compared to the
recent temperatures, although it is still a few degrees below
normal. Surface high pressure building over the region will
allow for drier conditions to prevail. A frontal boundary looks
to push through towards mid-week, but there is still a lot of
uncertainty right now regarding those features given the time
range.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...A mix of VFR/MVFR expected over the next
24 hours. MVFR most favored at KSLK/KEFK/KMPV where occasional
light snow showers/flurries possible through mid morning Friday.
Winds generally west to northwesterly from 6-12 kts through the
period, occasionally gusty to 15-18 kts this evening through
06Z or so.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for VTZ001>011-
016>021.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for NYZ026>028-
035-087.
Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM EST Friday for NYZ029>031-034.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Storm
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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