370
FXUS61 KBTV 050627
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
227 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 225 AM EDT Friday...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 225 AM EDT Friday...
1. Another warm and dry day today before temperatures trend
cooler during the weekend with showers and embedded thunderstorms
expected. Severe chances remain low at this time.
2. Hot and dry weather expected to return.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 AM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Mid to upper level ridging will begin to breakdown today
with developing west to southwest flow aloft helping to shunt the
ridge axis south and east. Before any systems cannot move into the
region, we will see one more warm and dry day today. A persistence
forecast from yesterday is expected with highs at or 1 to 2 degrees
warmer than yesterday in the mid to upper 80s. Dewpoints will be in
the 40s with good mixing keeping things comfortable today,
minimizing the heat risk. Outside of channeled flow in the St.
Lawrence Valley, winds today will be light 5-10 mph with a lake
breeze on Lake Champlain. Some mid to high clouds will also be
present into the afternoon, with increasing cloud cover this
evening. Relative humidities will follow yesterdays into the 25
to 35% range.
Shower chances associated will increase tonight as a long wave
trough with embedded shortwaves swings through Quebec into the
weekend. An initial shortwave will focus precipitation over northern
New York and International Border regions Friday night into Saturday
morning. Strong moisture advection via a jet stream connection to
the Gulf with surge Pwats to 1.5 to 1.75 inches across the entire
region. Given the high precipitable water associated with this
system, localized heavy rain may be possible with any showers that
do develop. The rain likely wont be a widespread persistent rain,
but rather favor rounds of showers which will reduce any threat of
flooding concerns.
The initial shortwave shifts east by late Saturday morning with some
clearing potentially in its wake via subsidence. Some peaks of
sunshine will allow for an increase in instability, mainly in
the southern regions where distance from the core of the trough
will be greater. Surface instability is progged to climb towards
1200-1800 J/kg on the NAM3 and HRRR model soundings, a subtle
increasing trend from previous runs. Limitations to any severe
weather will be a disconnect between the instability and more
favorable dynamics. Higher instability is expected to the south
with more potential clearing during day time heating, however,
stronger dynamics and shear are closer to the International
Border, closer to the upper low. Regardless, there is enough
instability near the shear maximums with associated height falls
to support some scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly
across northern New York and the International Border Saturday
mid to late afternoon. Some model soundings denote capping over
the instability maximums in southern Vermont, which may inhibit
more widespread thunderstorm activity. The main impacts from
these potential storms will be localized heavy rainfall and some
small hail. Hail growth zone thickness to around 10,000 would
support some small hail formation. Given the disconnection of
the thermal and dynamic components and lack of true convergence,
severe storm potential is low, however, some stronger
thunderstorms will be possible.
A secondary shortwave on the back of the departing long wave trough
Sunday will bring another chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms, mainly across southern Vermont. Northerly flow
will be advecting cooler air from the north with increasing waa
flow to the south. Along this air mass boundary from central
Vermont to the southeast, additional shower activity will be
possible, though instability will be lower, only to around
500J/kg on model soundings for VSF. Continued chances for small
hail will be possible, though heavy rain will be less likely as
the jet streak slides south will a drying of the mid to upper
levels. Behind the weekend system, temperatures will trend
cooler on Sunday with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Surface high pressure will anchor itself just off the
Eastern Seaboard as another high amplitude upper level ridge settles
across the eastern US. The pattern will thus repeat itself with some
toasty temperatures in the 80s to near 90, but relatively
comfortable humidity for the midweek. Forecast model scenarios begin
to diverge beyond Wednesday. Embedded within the upper ridge,
there`s a narrow trough ambling east, and the timing of this feature
is up for debate. Regardless, a trend towards more humid conditions
will coincide with this feature, as well as the potential for some
showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail with patchy high
clouds. Dry air will limit fair weather cumulus, but some could
develop around 7000-8000 ft agl about 16z-22z. Southwest winds are
expected at KSLK and KMSS at 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts 15-19
knots, but remaining terminals will experience terrain driven flows
around 5 knots. Ceilings will begin to lower from west to east as a
surface trough approaches the St. Lawrence Valley after 06z
Saturday, but conditions will likely remain VFR with precipitation
translating east after 06z Saturday as well.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures will be approaching daily record warm values today,
June 5th. At this time, Plattsburgh (PBG) and Montpelier (MPV)
have the greatest chances of setting a new record.
Record High Temperatures:
June 5:
KMPV: 86/2025
KPBG: 90/2020
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 5:
KPBG: 65/1963
June 6:
KPBG: 67/1973
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Danzig
AVIATION...Haynes
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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