708
FXUS61 KBTV 211131
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
631 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 630 AM EST Saturday...
Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been
cancelled. Very light snow will continue through the morning
before tapering off with minor accumulations less than half an
inch expected.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 139 AM EST Saturday...
1. Snow showers will continue through the morning before
gradually tapering off, with seasonably cool temperatures
expected.
2. Low pressure system will track from the North Carolina coast
northeastward towards the Gulf of Maine by Monday evening. Recent
guidance has tracked closer north, which means snow is more likely
to graze parts of southern and eastern Vermont. Additionally, gusty
north winds to 35 mph are possible, and cold temperatures return
behind the system on Tuesday.
3. Another round of widespread precipitation is possible over
the latter half of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 139 AM EST Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The period of heaviest snow has ended across the
region, with snowfall expected to continue over the next several
hours into the morning, gradually tapering off as the day
progresses. Additional snowfall will generally be light this
morning, with additional accumulations generally ranging from a
dusting to a few inches, with the Winter Storm Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories still in effect until 10 AM this morning. While
most of the snowfall is over, slick conditions may still be possible
this morning, so be sure to use caution if traveling. A rather sharp
temperature gradient looks to develop across the region today, with
northern New York climbing into the 20s while southern Vermont warms
into the mid to upper 30s. The colder air mass will set the stage
for a seasonably chilly Saturday night as temperatures slip back
into the teens and single digits.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Rapid cyclogenesis will be underway Sunday night into
Monday as low pressure tracks off the Carolina Coast towards the
Gulf of Maine. Different model scenarios have bumped northwards, and
are quite intense, with most indicating surface pressures falling
below 980mb, perhaps even down to 970mb. With the shift closer to
the 40 N, 70 W benchmark, the probability of snow has increased for
southern Vermont and eastern Vermont. We`re still most likely to be
grazed with very dry air on the northwestern periphery of the low.
So outside the precipitation shield, it could be relatively clear in
the subsidence section of the developing low. Once it reaches the
Gulf of Maine, it`ll pull the remnants of low pressure over the
Great Lakes east back over us. The attendant moisture should produce
some snow showers Monday night into Tuesday morning at the very
least. The upcoming NBM 5.0 probabilities of 4" or more across
Rutland and Windsor County are hovering around 30-40% with a sharp
cut-off towards 0% over central Vermont.
One aspect of the system that we`ll need to monitor is the strength
of northerly flow. Over the last month or so, we`ve not had to think
too much about wind gusts. But Monday into Monday night, a 1035mb
surface high will approach James Bay as the surface low is reaching
max intensity. The pressure gradient will be fairly sharp, but the
tightest isobar contour packing is expected to be east of the
region. Still, 850mb winds increase towards 40 knots, and the
probability of gusts reaching about 30 mph is about 30-40% across
much of the Champlain Valley into southern and central Vermont.
Monday will be seasonably cool just below the freezing mark, but the
cold air advection behind the departing coastal will push us about
10 degrees below normal in the teens and 20s Tuesday afternoon.
Portions of northern New York could see wind chills Tuesday morning
and early afternoon approaching 15 below. Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning will feature min temperatures in the single digits
above and below zero.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The next widespread precipitation that we will track is
a pair of systems between Wednesday afternoon and Friday. It appears
the set up involves a pair of systems, and modest model spread
revolving around the degree of separation between the two systems
exists. Where the systems are more closely entwined, there`s less
warm advection that takes place and more snow. This is more in line
with the GEFS suite. A greater gap between the two means some light
snow initially, but southwest, return flow is allowed to take place
and warm us above freezing with a wintry mix or rain, which is
closer to the EPS suite. As per usual, the GEPS finds a way to sit
about right in the middle of the two. The AIGFS and EC`s AIFS digs
the second shortwave far enough south that the feature appears to
behave like a coastal low, and that type of forecast would lean
towards snow. With these scenarios being outlined, precipitation is
likely, but the nature of how this plays out between Wednesday
afternoon and Friday is uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Strips of light snow continue to sink south
across Vermont. Intervals of 2-6SM visibility and ceilings around
700-2500 ft agl are expected over the next 6 hours. Northwest to
northeast winds will increase to 5-10 kts, remaining locally faster
at KMSS, and that will eventually bring dry air to the region.
Especially after 16-19z, there should be fairly quick improvement,
though clearing may not make it to be KRUT or KSLK until about
03z-06z. After 20- 22z, winds will trend 5 knots or less, except
terrain driven southeast flow will return at KRUT. Snow is likely to
arc back into the region tonight into Sunday over northern New York,
and noted a PROB30 for KMSS approaching 12z Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Monday: VFR. Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes/Kremer
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Kremer
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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