809
FXUS61 KBTV 190658
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
258 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 256 AM EDT Friday...
No significant changes made with this forecast update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 256 AM EDT Friday...
1. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur at
times through the weekend as breezy winds continue through Saturday
associated with cyclonic flow.
2. Unsettled pattern prevails most of next week, but
probability of impactful or significant weather is low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 256 AM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Vertically stacked low pressure rotates across south-
central Quebec early this morning and is expected to slowly follow
the St. Lawrence River toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence throughout
the day today. This cyclonic flow will result in rounds shortwaves
triggering numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms through the
weekend. This afternoon, precipitation is most likely along the
international border and in upslope areas of the mountains, coverage
then expanding southward tonight and Saturday. West-southwesterly
winds today with gusts 20-30 knots will be turning more west-
northwesterly on Saturday with gusts closer to 10-25 knots,
promoting deep atmospheric mixing. As a result, highs each day will
be in the 60s and 70s with accompanying lows in the mid 40s to 50s,
which could feel a bit chillier in the wind. Apparent temperature
(wind chills) will likely fall into the 40s at elevations above 3000
feet. Saturday evening, precipitation is most likely isolated to the
northern Champlain Valley and northern Greens as brief ridging
stabilizes things, but by Sunday another shortwave looks to come
through to blossom widespread showers and thunderstorms again. By
Sunday night, the upper low haunting our forecast area this weekend
will finally move eastward, replaced by another brief ridge but then
quickly replaced by another closed upper low zooming west to east
across south-central Quebec on Monday, just north of our forecast
area.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Little change seen in the latest guidance as mid/upper
lvl trof prevails acrs the Great Lakes into the NE CONUS next week,
but some timing and track differences are continuing with system on
Monday. Latest NAM12KM has sfc low pres tracking directly overhead
by 12z Monday, while GFS continues to show a unphased northern and
southern stream system. Either way, s/w energy crossing our cwa with
enhanced mid lvl moisture wl produce occasional showers, but
probably not a washout on Monday. A weak mid/upper lvl ridge builds
into our cwa for Tues with drier and warmer weather anticipated.
However, this wl be short-lived with next system in fast progressive
flow aloft arriving Weds into Thurs. This energy, combined with some
instability and moisture wl increase the potential for showers and
thunderstorms on Weds into Thurs. Given strength of dynamics and
associated moderate wind fields/shear, if timing can occur with max
heating/instability the ingredients would support some stronger
storm potential. Something to monitor as we head into the middle of
next week. The WPC gridded fcst shows temps in the 70s
Monday/Tuesday, before warming into the mid 70s to lower 80s for
Weds and Thurs, with lows mostly in the 50s to near 60F.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Ceilings and winds continue to be the
aviation challenge this morning with conditions ranging from IFR
at SLK to MVFR at EFK/MSS to VFR elsewhere. Thinking CIGS will
wobble between MVFR and IFR at SLK thru 14z, so have tempo those
conditions. Elsewhere, MVFR cigs will persist at EFK and
probably develop at MPV, before slowly improving after 12z.
Winds continue to be gusty at 10 to 15 knots with gusts 15 to 25
knots, from a westerly direction. These winds prevail most of
the day, before decreasing around sunset. Additional showers
with pockets of MVFR CIGS/VIS are likely after 18z thru 00z this
evening across our northern and central terminals.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 308 PM EDT Thursday...
Daily record precipitation of 1.22 inches was achieved for the
Saranac Lake Area yesterday, breaking the 1924 record of 0.87
inches.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Storm/Taber
AVIATION...Taber
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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