064
FXUS61 KBTV 270626
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
126 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 120 AM EST Tuesday...No changes were needed. A Nor`easter
is being monitored, but probabilistic guidance suggests it will
remain well away from the region at this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 120 AM EST Tuesday...
1. Periods of isolated to scattered snow showers
expected through Thursday night.
2. Cold temperatures/wind chills Thursday night.
3. A Nor`easter looks to remain mostly east of the region
Sunday and Sunday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 120 AM EST Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cyclonic flow with below normal temperatures
will provide several opportunities for snow showers as a couple
weak disturbances progress eastwards. Today, one such system
will approach late morning into the afternoon. Southwesterly
flow ahead of it will draw lake effect snow showers northwards.
Sufficient lift and moisture for snow showers will be present as
the system moves overhead, but the feature is not overly dynamic
with no favorable jet structure or anything of that nature.
Outside the lake effect in southern St. Lawrence Valley dropping
1-3" (locally 4" possible), an extra coating to a few tenths of
snow is expected in showers is likely today.
Snow will taper off as the trough shifts east Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Most of Wednesday will be quiet beneath a shortwave
ridge, but another trough will shift east Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. The surface reflection is rather weak, and so
lower PoPs are anticipated, but snow showers could still occur,
mainly over favorable upslope regions.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: A reinforcing shot of cold air enters Thursday
and drops temperatures further for Thursday night into Friday.
Cold air advection should continue through Thursday night for
most places, keeping the boundary layer coupled and some wind
around. These winds, combined with the cold temperatures, look
to drop wind chills into the -15 to -25 degree range for most
places. However, there is some uncertainty regarding on how low
they go. This could end up being a case where either temperatures
fall to their current lows or even farther, or winds stay up
but temperatures are warmer then forecast. These could end up
causing higher wind chills than forecast. Model guidance is
still split on the amount the boundary layer will decouple and
how many clouds will be around, but as the forecast stands, a
Cold Weather Advisory would need to be at least issued for the
Adirondacks.
.KEY MESSAGE 3: Another powerful nor`easter looks to move up
the Eastern Seaboard over the weekend, behaving as a now
uncommon Miller Type A storm. A vast majority of model guidance
keeps the snow over southern New England and Maine or points
east. Trends have been relatively consistent or shifting the
storm track slightly east, so as it stands, the storm does not
look to bring significant snow to the region, though it will
still be watched. Probabilities of an inch from the GEFS/EPS/CAN
ensemble blend are around 30 percent for eastern areas dropping
to 10 percent for the St. Lawrence Valley. Based on the
pattern, there does not look to be the potential for a
significant shift north/west like there was for the previous
snowstorm.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Light snow will exit the region within
the next few hours and all visibilities are expected to be VFR
by 09Z. A few flurries cannot be ruled out afterward but they
should be light enough to prevent any visibility related flight
category changes. A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings are currently
out there and ceilings will trend upward as the night goes on.
All terminals except EFK and possibly SLK should be VFR by 12Z.
Mostly VFR conditions should prevail through the morning before
snow showers arrive in the afternoon. They will be the heaviest
and steadiest over northern New York, where intervals of MVFR
and IFR visibilities are expected. Across Vermont, they will
likely only cause intervals of MVFR visibilities. Winds will
generally be northerly for the rest of the night, before
becoming southwesterly to southerly during the day today.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Myskowski
AVIATION...Myskowski
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
|
