254
FXUS61 KBTV 080627
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
227 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 226 AM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes were made with this forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 226 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. Dry through mid week with near critical fire weather
conditions possible, especially on Thursday.
2. Widespread rain showers expected on Friday with a cold
frontal passage.
3. Seasonable and mostly dry weather is expected for the
weekend. Additional chances for rainfall are expected heading into
early next week, along with unseasonably warm temperatures to start
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 226 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A very dry airmass will settle over the region today as
high pressure crests overhead. Dewpoints this morning are in the
single digits and teens, and even as low as 0F at KSLK. Skies are
mostly clear and will remain so through the day, leading to ample
sunshine. Winds remain light today under the high, less than 10 mph
and terrain driven. Highs will be close to normal for early April
with most spots warming into the 40s. Have continued trending toward
the NBM 10th percentile for this afternoon`s dewpoints, though
there`s still a bit of uncertainty just how dry we`ll be able get
given yesterday`s snow and related melt today. This results in
minimum relative humidity values near critical values, in the 20s to
around 35 percent, though this may be a touch on the low side.
After another dry night tonight, fire weather concerns only increase
tomorrow. High pressure will shift to the east, placing us under
increasing south/southwest flow. Note the latest NAM 3km has 925mb
winds of 40 to 55 kt in the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys and
along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens. As daytime
heating occurs, anticipate at least some of these higher winds will
get mixed to the surface; gusts of 25 mph to 35 mph seem reasonable,
with upwards of 40 mph in the aforementioned areas due to channeling
and/or downsloping. Model soundings indicate mixing of drier air as
well, so while the south flow will gradually increase moisture, have
continued the trend of lowering dewpoints, particularly in VT where
higher PWATs associated with an approaching cold front will be
slower to arrive. A few showers may try to bubble up over far
western portions of our forecast area late Thursday, but expect much
of this will remain on the Canadian side of the international
border. Any showers on the US side of the St Lawrence Valley will
likely be nothing more than virga or perhaps a few sprinkles at
most. Highs on Thursday will easily warm into the 50s, with the
wider valleys and northern slopes of the Adirondacks likely topping
out at 60F or better.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front will slowly push southward out of
Canada Thursday night and eventually across our region on
Friday. Given the very dry airmass that is in place, expect the
front`s arrival Thursday evening to just amount to a few
isolated showers in the St Lawrence Valley. Otherwise, Thursday
night will be dry under partly to mostly cloudy skies. We get a
better surge of moisture on Friday, and this combined with
daytime heating will be enough to allow more robust showers to
develop. Showers should become fairly widespread along/ahead of
the front, leading to an area of fairly steady precipitation
that translates southward/southeastward through the day. This
area of showers will exit our region around midnight or so
Friday night, with perhaps a few lingering showers over the
mountains overnight. Total rainfall will generally range from a
tenth of an inch to around a third of an inch.
Other than the showers, the front will also have impacts on Friday`s
temperatures. The day will start with the front stretching somewhere
in the vicinity of the St Lawrence Valley and/or northwestern
Adirondacks, with colder air following along in its wake through the
day. Therefore, northern areas will be relatively chilly, topping
out in the upper 40s to low 50s. Central/southern VT, meanwhile,
will have more time to warm up on south winds ahead of the front,
allowing them to reach into the upper 50s to low/mid 60s.
Temperatures will cool into the 30s Friday night, so any lingering
showers may turn over to snow later in the night/early Saturday.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A frontal boundary will move out of the region Friday
night into early Saturday morning, with seasonable and mostly dry
weather expected for most of the weekend with high pressure building
into the region. Temperatures on Saturday will be cool to start, but
high temperatures will warm into the 40s and low 50s, which is near
normal for this time of year. Sunday looks to be several degrees
warmer, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. A warming trend is
expected heading into next week and high pressure shifts eastward,
with southerly flow ushering in warmer air. High temperatures early
next week look to warm into the mid to upper 60s, to even near 70
for some locations. Additional chances for precipitation will be
possible early next week, although there is still some uncertainty
as to the exact location of where the boundary sets up and how
widespread precipitation will be, which may inhibit how warm
temperatures climb.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the forecast period as high pressure continues to build
into the region, bringing mostly clear skies. The only exceptions to
the VFR conditions are some lingering MVFR clouds at KRUT, which are
expected to erode very shortly, and the potential for any mist/fog
development overnight. Some guidance is suggesting the development
of some mist towards sunrise given the calm winds overnight,
especially at KSLK, however the drier air moving into the region may
limited any development and given the low confidence it has been
left out of the forecast for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions and
clear skies will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds will
generally be calm or terrain-influenced this morning, 5 knots or
less, increasing out of the south/southwest after 15Z or so, but
generally remaining under 10 knots for most terminals.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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