180
FXUS61 KBTV 271116
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
716 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 243 AM EDT Monday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 243 AM EDT Monday...
1. Dry weather continues through Tuesday with critical fire
weather conditions possible Tuesday.
2. Large scale troughing gradually builds into the region mid-
week, bringing multiple rounds of rain.
3. Unsettled conditions are expected to linger through the
weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 243 AM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An omega block remains in place for the next couple
days, leading to consistent weather. The ridging will remain over
the region, so dry and sunny weather will generally prevail through
Tuesday. Relative humidity values should drop into the 20 to 40
percent range for most areas during the afternoons, but lighter
winds will lessen fire weather concerns today. Peak gusts will
generally be around and under 10 mph through today. A very dry layer
will persist above the boundary layer and efficient mixing could
cause dew points to be slightly lower than forecast on any given
day, though lower guidance was already blended into the forecast.
Winds will increase notably on Tuesday, with southerly gusts between
20 to 35 mph possible. The winds, combined with the low relative
humidity, are causing critical fire weather conditions to become
increasingly likely. Fire weather concerns aside, this stretch will
feature great spring weather to get outside. Temperatures will rise
into the 60s and low 70s during the days with abundant sunshine.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The first chance of rain comes late Tuesday and Tuesday
night as a shortwave rides along the incoming trough. However, most
of the energy will pass to the northwest so any associated
precipitation will quickly fall apart as it enters the region.
Therefore, a few showers are possible over northern New York during
this period, but they would be relatively light and confined to the
western areas. Due to the very dry antecedent airmass, these may
struggle to reach the ground entirely. A more potent shortwave
passes through late Wednesday and Thursday and the longwave trough
will have moved east enough that the shortwave passes over the
region. Therefore, a round of steady rain is increasingly likely as
an area of low pressure develops. The track of the surface low looks
to be to the east so the cold air will overspread the region,
leading to a relatively chilly rain. A large model spread remains
with the expected precipitation amounts. Through Thursday, the
combined GEFS/EPS/CMC probability of receiving more than a half inch
is between 60 and 90 percent and receiving more than an inch are 25
to 50 percent. Snow showers are possible in the highest peaks at the
end.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Model consensus strongly favors stagnation of the
longwave pattern as downstream blocking intensifies late this week
into the weekend. With projections of an upper level low lingering
over the region, daily shower chances remain likely. Under the cold
core of the low, it`s reasonable to expect some snow showers for
higher elevations above 2500ft with potential for some rain/snow mix
down to around 2000ft. As such, high temperatures will be below
seasonal averages, but not so much that lower valleys will need to
be concerned with snow chances. Highs are favored to be in the upper
40s to low 50s with overnight lows in the mid/upper 30s to near 40
degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Persistent VFR will continue through the
forecast period with the region under high pressure. Winds will
generally remain light and be more terrain driven in absence of
a stronger pressure gradient. Some lake breeze for BTV/PBG is
favored to develop around Lake Champlain as temperatures warm
driving a thermal circulation. Southerly winds aloft begin to
increase overnight setting up for some breezy conditions on
Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Myskowski
AVIATION...Boyd
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