588
FXUS61 KBTV 160001
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
701 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 700 PM EST Thursday...Winter Storm Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories are no longer in effect for northern New
York. Steady precipitation has ended. Untreated surfaces may
remain icy as temperatures fall, so continue to use caution
early this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 130 PM EST Thursday...

1. Temperatures are falling sharply across the region and any
wet surfaces have potential to freeze, especially untreated
surfaces and unpaved roads. Cold overnight temperatures are
expected.


2. Next chance for precipitation comes Friday night into
Saturday as upper level trough moves over the area.

3. An unseasonably cold and unsettled pattern looks to continue
next week with multiple chances for snow, but no system looks
overly significant or impactful.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 130 PM EST Thursday...

.KEY MESSAGE 1: Snow will gradually taper off to snow showers
this evening, with some additional snow accumulations possible
in the more favored upslope locations. Temperatures will drop
off sharply with minimum temperatures nose diving into the
single digits above and below zero. Conditions will also become
breezy out of the west, so apparent temperatures will dip into
the teens below zero, close to -20.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: Next chance for precipitation comes in the
Friday night into Saturday timeframe, along with a warm up for
the daytime hours on Saturday. An upper level trough will cross
our area, bringing some light snow to the region. Temperatures
on Saturday afternoon influenced by warm southerly flow will
reach the lower 30s areawide.

.KEY MESSAGE 3: The end of the weekend Sunday will see a return
to below average temperatures and unsettled weather. A long
wave trough will continue to nudge closer to the region Sunday
into Monday with continued southwest flow, but west/northwest
flow aloft. A few shortwaves will be able to sustain at least a
chance of snow across northern New York and perhaps the spine of
the Greens through mid-week, but snow accumulations look rather
unimpressive, outside of southern St. Lawrence County where a
lake effect band may develop. Surface southwest flow in the
southern St. Lawrence Valley will air in the development of a
potentially prolonged lake effect band Sunday through Wednesday.
The band on average looks to remain south of the region,
however, it will waffle about the St. Lawrence/Lewis/Jefferson
County borders. Upper level cooling this week will keep the
region on the cold side with highs falling from the 20s Sunday
into the teens and single digits by mid week. The coldest period
will be Monday night through Tuesday night following an arctic
front Monday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday night will fall
into the single digits above and below zero, with the coldest
hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom potentially
pushing
-10F. Snow across northern New York will likely aid in further
 temperatures falls. Southwest winds will also be breezy both
 nights which will drive wind chills into the negative teens
 across the Adirondacks and negative single digits elsewhere.
 Tuesday night appears to be the coldest of the two, but
 regardless, this may be the coldest air we have seen this
 season thus far with 925mb temperatures around -20C.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Upper level low pressure is currently
centered over northern New York as surface low pressure shifts
eastward across New Hampshire. Snow will gradually taper off to
snow showers this evening, with some additional snow
accumulations possible in the more favored upslope locations.
Temperatures are falling sharply across the region and any wet
surfaces have the potential to freeze, especially untreated
surfaces.

Ceilings currently vary greatly this evening, anywhere from
1600 to 7500 feet above ground level. Sites currently with MVFR
levels at the moment will see a gradual improvement throughout
the next 6-12 hours, though MVFR ceilings may linger at mountain
sites towards 18Z Friday, and KMSS is starting to hint at a
brief period of snow showers (vis 4-6 miles) and ceilings
around 800-1000 feet through 03Z Friday. Overall, snow showers
will linger across the forecast area over the next few hours,
lowering visibilities to around 2-5 miles, though briefly lower
vis is possible. Showers linger longest at KSLK and KMPV,
potentially until 12Z-15Z Friday.

Winds out of the northwest 5-15 knots gusting 15-25 knots will
continue to be breezy over the next 12-18 hours, turning out of
the west and southwest for many sites throughout the night
tonight and throughout the day tomorrow. KSLK is most likely
to have a quick period of low level wind shear around 10Z-12Z.
Models are indicating there will also be a plume of moisture
crossing the forecast area around 09Z-15Z, which may bring a
short-lived resurgence of snow showers and MVFR level ceilings
during this period. Following this, we anticipate mainly VFR
conditions 12Z-18Z onwards with even some breaks in the clouds
throughout the day Friday.


Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danzig/Neiles/Storm
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV