867
FXUS61 KBTV 090646
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
246 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 238 AM EDT Tuesday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 238 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Chances for scattered showers start early Wednesday and
persist through Friday.
2. Building heat and humidity through Friday.
3. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms return over the
weekend with temperatures cooling towards normal by early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 238 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: After a dry and sunny day today, the weather pattern
turns more unsettled starting tonight. A northern stream shortwave
approaching from the west this afternoon/evening will bring some
scattered showers to our forecast area beginning early Wednesday.
With multiple shortwaves moving through, the chances for
scattered showers continue through Friday. This timeframe will
not be a washout by any means, but do expect some periods of
showers with some embedded rumbles of thunder possible,
especially during the afternoon hours. Chances for severe
weather during this timeframe is relatively low...limited by
lack of shear, marginal instability, and lack of strong or
organized forcing. The overall pattern is rather disorganized
until a front finally sweeps through late Friday into Friday
night, providing a focus for more organized and steady
precipitation overnight. Of all the days this week, Friday has
the better potential for severe, especially if we were to
destabilize ahead of the frontal passage, but timing doesn`t
look to be lining up favorably for severe storms at this point.
We will continue to monitor.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures today and tomorrow will be relatively
seasonal, but will trend warmer with increasing humidity Thursday
and Friday. Given the overall unsettled weather pattern with
scattered showers and clouds moving through, have continued to hedge
forecast temps towards MOS guidance...slightly lower than the
NBM. Friday continues to look like the warmest day, when
temperatures will reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s. At the
same time, dewpoints will tick upwards into the mid to upper 60s
as Gulf moisture wraps up and around high pressure over the
western Atlantic. As a result, expect the airmass to feel
noticeably more muggy late week. Heat indices will reach into
the low to mid 90s on Friday in the Champlain Valley, Saint
Lawrence Valley, and Connecticut River Valley. In addition to
the increasing humidity and warmer daytime temperatures,
overnight lows will also be on the warmer side...falling only to
the low to upper 60s. This will limit overnight recoveries, and
increase heat risk to any vulnerable populations.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Mean longwave troughing is favored to shift towards the
Northeast and eastern Canada over the weekend into early next week.
This pattern will promote periods of showers and frontal passages.
One such front is currently projected to move through Friday night
into early Saturday. Differing guidance are a little split on the
timing, but most models have the expectation of a period of height
falls supporting increased instability and potential for a few
thunderstorms. This doesn`t look to be a complete washout for the
weekend however. The front will also bring cooler surface
temperatures with highs likely trending back towards the mid/upper
70s by early next week. The region is expected to remain under the
base of a broad longwave trough into early next week with continued
shower chances. With flow aloft somewhat zonal, faster flow aloft
will push a series of weaker variety troughs through. Periodic
breezes in excess of 20 mph are possible in this flow pattern
especially in northern New York where westerly flow stacks along the
northern slopes of the Adirondacks down to the Highway 11 corridor.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will degrade to IFR at
MPV/SLK where crossover temperatures will likely be crossed
this morning despite drier afternoon RH yesterday. Otherwise,
only looking at some mist at MSS where conditions will be close
and could have just enough mixing at sunrise to squeeze out some
MVFR vis. Elsewhere, conditions will remain VFR with winds
remaining generally light. Lake breezes will set up today given
the sharp temperature rise expected with a westerly component in
the afternoon for BTV and southerly at PBG as southeasterly
lake breeze balances with wester flow aloft.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures will approach record highs on Friday, June 12th.
Max Temp Records
Date KBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK
06-12 94|2017 88|2017 91|2017 89|2005 94|2017 90|1933
High Min Temp Records
DateKBTV KPBG KSLK
06-12 71|2017 67|2017 62|1996
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Duell
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Duell
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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