103
FXUS61 KBTV 142307
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
707 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 551 PM EDT Sunday...
The Lake Wind Advisory has been cancelled for Lake Champlain.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 214 PM EDT Sunday...
1. Strong to severe thunderstorms and localized flooding
possible today and tonight. Heavy rainfall will be the main
concern.
2. A return to more seasonal weather early next week with daily
chances for showers.
3. Another storm system is expected to bring widespread
rainfall to the region on Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 214 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Ongoing showers across the region will continue through
the afternoon and evening. These showers will continue to have the
possibility of embedded thunderstorms. Current radar shows a wide
swath of stratiform rain across northern New York that will move
into northern Vermont shortly along a deformation axis in the St.
Lawrence Valley. Back into Lake Ontario and western New York, some
showers are showing signs of convective initiation, but are being
limited due to poor mid level lapse rates. Current satellite imagery
denotes this well with widespread mid to upper level clouds which
are leading to a cap on most instability beyond 500mb. Furthermore,
mixing has not been quite as robust which may limit the overall wind
threat. However, some increasing low level lapse rates in southern
Vermont show there is still a potential for some gusty winds should
thunderstorms be able to grow vertically into this afternoon and
evening. Once this initial shield of stratiform clears, we will have
to see how much the atmosphere can recover for this afternoon. While
SBCAPE is steadily growing to around 500-1000J/kg, MLCAPE remains
lacking under 500J/kg given poor mid level lapse rates. That all to
say, the severe threat today will be very conditional with how
much instability recovery is possible. Current thinking right
now is that mid to upper level clouds and saturated moisture
profiles may limit more widespread severe activity, but some
isolated to scattered thunderstorms may become strong to
possibly severe this afternoon into this evening. The best
chance for any severe weather will be south of a line from
Saranac Lake, NY to Montpelier in Vermont where an area of
convergence, evident on station plots, has developed. As a
shortwave across western New York moves east, and interacts with
this convergence zone, that is when we could expect some
additional convective initiation. This timing would be between 3
PM and 7 PM. A band of heavier rain looks to pass through after
sunset with some good convergence between 8 PM and midnight
tonight. 6hr QPF under this band of broken heavier rain showers
will be around half an inch to an inch over most of Vermont.
Additional rain through tomorrow morning will be around 0.75
inches to around an inch, locally an additional 1.5 inches under
any heavier thundershowers.
The more concerning aspect to the forecast will be the hydro
concern. Guidance continues to show good pwats across the region to
1.5 inches. Some recent runs of the hi res models show
potential for locally up to 3 inches, should an area receive
multiple rounds of embedded thunderstorms. Tall skinny CAPE
profiles with a deep warm cloud depth to around 10,000 ft are
favorable for heavy precipitation. Heavy rain will continue to
be the main threat today which may lead to localized flash
flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect until 8 AM Monday
morning for most of northern and central Vermont for the
potential for flash flooding from heavy rainfall. The Weather
Prediction Center has placed the entire region in a Slight Risk
for flash flooding today. Current guidance points to the
northern and central Greens, as well as the Northeast Kingdom as
areas that have the best chance for any repeat thunderstorm
activity. An area of convergence from Saranac Lake, NY to
Montpelier may lead to some enhancement of rainfall amounts.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Behind the cold front today, a much cooler air mass will
usher in a return to seasonable temperatures for Monday and Tuesday.
Highs will be near 70 to the mid 70s with overnight lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. These cooler temperatures however, will be
associated an upper trough and weak instability which could bring
some daily chances for isolated terrain driven showers, especially
across the higher terrain. These showers will be light in nature as
they lack any meaningful moisture or instability profiles.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Models continue to be in very good agreement that
another potent storm system will track near the St. Lawrence Valley
on Thursday and bring widespread rainfall. There is enough
confidence in the guidance to include 80+ PoPs at this time. There
is the possibility for some heavy rainfall again on Thursday and we
have already begun coordinating with the Weather Prediction Center
about the potential for at least a marginal risk for flash flooding.
Some of the ensemble guidance is already hinting at 1-2 inches of
rain on Thursday so it`ll be something to watch closely, especially
depending on how much rainfall is received from the storms today and
tonight.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Very challenging taf cycle with areas of
moderate rain and lower cigs/vis possible associated with a
cold front moving across our airspace. Current obs show a mix of
IFR at MSS to MVFR at SLK to VFR at the rest of our sites.
Thinking as periods of moderate rain prevails at times through
06z, with intervals of IFR vis or cigs possible at any given
taf site. Greatest probability will be at SLK/MPV and EFK.
However, a quick walk outside on the roof already shows a lower
fog deck just to the east of BTV Airport with some lower clouds
developing south to southeast. Have placed some tempo groups to
cover this IFR potential at times. As precip exits our cwa, a
period of IFR cigs is likely at SLK btwn 06z-10z Monday.
Conditions quickly improve from MVFR to VFR by 15z Monday as
drier air aloft mixes toward the surface. Winds shift from
south/southeast, except northeast at PBG/MSS to
southwest/westerly by 06z tonight with some areas of low level
wind shear likely.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Daily Precipitation may be possible today:
June 14:
KMSS: 0.63/2005
K1V4: 0.66/2005
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch through Monday morning for VTZ002>010-016>018.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig
AVIATION...Taber
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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