654
FXUS61 KBTV 040711
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
311 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 221 AM EDT Saturday...
Wind Advisory was slightly expanded slightly in area to include
eastern Chittenden and eastern Franklin counties in Vermont, and
magnitude of highest wind gusts were increased to near 55 MPH in
localized areas in northern New York and in the vicinity of Lake
Champlain.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 311 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Strong south to southeast winds will likely produce
localized power outages late tonight ahead of a cold front.
Widespread rain will occur Sunday morning with additional gusty
westerly winds behind the front.
2. A late season light snowfall is likely for much of the
region along with unseasonable cold. Greatest coverage of snow and
snow showers is favored for late Monday night into Tuesday.
3. High pressure brings dry weather for mid week, but
precipitation chances increase by the weekend. Temperatures remain
seasonable through the latter half of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 311 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Following a brief quiet and seasonable period
today, another large and well-defined frontal system to our west
will lift northeastward tonight. There are some similarities and
key differences to the event we just had Thursday night into
Friday.
Starting with the winds: a Wind Advisory remains in effect, with
particular attention to the northern foothills of the
Adirondacks and vicinity of Lake Champlain. It was expanded to
the western foothills of the northernmost Green Mountains with
hi-res model guidance showing strong near-surface southeasterly
flow, including 950 millibar winds near to just above 50 MPH.
The southeasterly flow looks lighter in central and southern
portions of the Green Mountains reducing risk of impactful winds
in those western slopes. The slight easterly component to the
wind also seems to be why strongest winds in the Champlain
Valley show a preference for northwestern portions of the
valley towards Rouses Point and Chazy. Have bumped up peak wind
gusts there into the range of 50-55 MPH, with similar magnitudes
near the NY-Route 11B corridor in Franklin County. Like today,
winds areawide will also be gusty behind the cold front but for
a longer duration as cold air advection will persist into
Sunday night and Monday morning on westerly winds.
As for precipitation: there again will be scattered to numerous
showers developing associated with the system`s mid-level warm
front. As it moves northeastward through the area we also will
have some elevated instability. However, the progged MUCAPE is
less than last night, which should reduce potential for
thunderstorms associated with development of CAPE in the hail
growth region of the cloud. Greatest risk for thunder and
heavier rain showers appears to remain in the immediate St.
Lawrence Valley and during the first portion of the night. Cold
air damming in eastern Vermont will again develop with some
sub-freezing temperatures supporting freezing rain. Comparing
forecast soundings shows similar inversion level and magnitude
of the warm nose aloft, but the shallow cold air looks slightly
less cold, which should limit coverage of wintry weather
compared to last night. Pockets of freezing rain/snow/sleet
certainly still could occur, but the threat looks low. The bulk
of the rain will pass through the region in an organized west-
to-east fashion over the course of about 4 to 6 hours centered
during the mid morning hours, with most rain east of Vermont by
noon. Brief moderate rainfall rates will occur with total
rainfall only 0.2" to 0.5" for most locations in addition to
the scattered showers that occurred during the night.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably cold air, with 925 millibar
temperatures dipping to near the 10th percentile by Tuesday
morning, will enter northern New York and New England early next
week. A north to south gradient in this cold air and upper level
waves dropping southward around the base of the upper level
trough will set the stage for widespread snow shower activity at
times Monday through Tuesday. Consensus location of most
precipitation, and potential for light snowfall, is currently
across southern areas of the forecast area. Various positive
snow depth change model output is consistent with forecast
soundings showing impressively cold air aloft, steep low level
lapse rates, and high relative humidity in the snow growth zone,
that could support measurable snow of up to a few inches across
our region. Greatest risk of slippery travel appears to be in
higher terrain and where more persistent snow showers develop.
For now, we show up to an inch of snow throughout the Adirondack
region and central and southern Greens. Note also on the
initial push of colder air early Monday some upslope snow
showers will be possible that would provide our northern
mountains with some minor accumulations, as well.
KEY MESSAGE 3: High pressure will drift across New York and New England
Wednesday and Wednesday night, before moving off shore Thursday and
Friday. We`ll see a couple of dry days as a result. Wednesday will
see temperatures return to seasonal normal, followed by a warming
trend through the remainder of the week. Highs will be in the 50s
and 60s Thursday and Friday. Things become more uncertain
thereafter, as a low pressure will move by well to our north,
dragging a cold front along in its wake. There are a wide variety of
solutions amongst both the deterministic and ensemble guidance on
this frontal boundary, whether it sinks southward through our region
on Friday with showers and perhaps thunderstorms, or if it hangs up
along the international border, keeping us mostly dry heading into
the weekend. Given the uncertainty, have not made any adjustments
away from WPC`s forecast for the latter half of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...MVFR/VFR to prevail through the TAF period.
Ceilings currently lowering to 1500-2800 ft from north to south
early this morning, and this trend will continue through daybreak
Saturday. MVFR should be the most persistent through 15z, but
occasional improvements to VFR will be possible. Also can`t totally
rule out brief IFR ceilings, mainly at KSLK or KEFK. All terminals
will see decreasing clouds and VFR conditions 15z-22z Sat, then
ceilings will start to lower again by the end of the TAF period.
Showers will be possible at KMSS late, with visibility generally
5-6SM. Gusty N/NW winds will gradually lessen through 09z, then
remaining around 5 kt and variable through 21z. Winds will then
trend to the S/SE and become gusty to 20 to 30 kt, locally higher in
the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys. LLWS will be possible after
00z, as well.
Outlook...
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
VTZ001-002-005-016-017.
NY...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
NYZ026>031-035-087.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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