724
FXUS61 KBTV 251832
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
232 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 231 PM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 231 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Light wintry mix tonight into Thursday morning.
2. Rain Thursday evening into the overnight, changing to snow
early Friday morning.
3. Becoming warmer with the train of weather systems likely to
continue next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 231 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A stationary front draped across the forecast area this
afternoon will provide the focus for a wintry mix tonight as it
lifts north as a warm front through Thursday. Weak shortwave energy
and surface low pressure north of Lake Superior this afternoon will
track west to east along the front tonight into Thursday morning
with low/mid-level thermal profiles generally supporting scattered
rain and snow showers as surface temps range through the 30s.
Northeasterly flow, however, will keep surface temperatures below
freezing in northern St. Lawrence Valley through at least the first
half of the night, and with warming temps aloft this will support
some light freezing rain and a few hundreths of ice accretion there.
Elsewhere snow showers shouldn`t amount to much near the surface
with warm boundary layer temps, but and inch or two is possible
across the high peaks.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The aforementioned warm front continues to move north to
about the international border on Thursday with gusty southerly
winds pushing surface temps into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the
region. After morning showers dissipate, the rest of the daylight
hours should be dry before additional shortwave energy and weak
surface low bring another round of precipitation for the evening and
overnight hours. Precipitation will predominantly be rain through
midnight before the front begins to move back south as a cold front
changing rain to snow at the higher elevations first, then briefly
to the valley floor during the pre-dawn hours before ending by the
morning commute. Much like the previous day, the bulk of snow
accumulation will be across the highest elevations with several
inches possible above 2500 feet, but below that only a dusting to an
inch is likely. Colder and drier weather follows for Friday through
Saturday with highs in the mid-20s to mid-30s and lows Friday night
cold in the single digits to teens above zero.
KEY MESSAGE 3: As has been the case recently, the jet stream remains
very fast in the forecast. Ensembles suggest speeds across the belt
of westerlies across Canada will remain near to above the 90th
percentile. Several embedded systems will continue to zip along this
express without a real connection to deep, tropical moisture. It
does appear towards the back half of next week that the persistently
fast flow will break down. So a pattern change is possible next
weekend.
Looking at Sunday, the axis of a 500mb trough will slide east with a
near 1040mb high settling across the Mid-Atlantic. Weather
conditions will probably be beautiful with sunshine and seasonably
cool conditions in the mid 30s to mid 40s. A surface low with
marginal moisture will track across Quebec Province on Monday and
drag a surface trough with scattered showers through the area.
Tuesday appears the most likely dry day in this stretch before
precipitation chances return. Another warm front will track across
the region Wednesday. As noted above, the break down of channeled
flow will result in a more amplified wave pattern that will open us
up to more moist, southwesterly flow for the latter half of next
week. It appears several shortwaves will eject northeast into the
Northeast ahead of the main system of interest to track into the
area towards next Friday/Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the
next 6 hours or so. Precipitation will begin moving in from west to
east after 00z, but dry air could result in most radar returns being
virga. Ceilings will gradually fall towards 2500-5000 ft agl
approaching 12z Thursday. A brief wintry mix will be possible at the
onset of precipitation, but this will likely be so short-lived at
most spots, the only mention is at KMSS. There will also be an
expanding area of low-level wind shear as southwest flow at 2000 ft
agl increases to 35-45. Precipitation will exit east of Vermont
about 14-15z Thursday. As that occurs, south to southwest winds will
pick up with gusts 15-25 knots possible, especially at KMSS and
KBTV. Returning rain chances are expected after 18z Thursday.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA,
Chance SN.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Slight
chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lahiff
DISCUSSION...Lahiff/Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
|
