266
FXUS61 KBTV 010726
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
326 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 325 AM EDT Wednesday...

Light rain and mixed precipitation is falling early this
morning as front exits our region. No big changes to the
forecast overall.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 325 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. As cold front slides southward and away from our area,
precipitation will come to an end and region will be under cold
air advection today. Some rises on area rivers are still
anticipated

2. As another low pressure system approaches from the Great
Lakes region, a trough will bring next chance for precipitation
Thursday into Friday.

3. A large frontal system will bring warm and moist conditions
Saturday night with periods of rain and gusty winds. No
significant impacts are currently expected.

4. Much cooler Monday through Wednesday. Below normal
temperatures expected but with low chances of significant
weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 325 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: With cold front dropping south of our area
today, precipitation will come to an end. Temperatures varied
quite a bit overnight, currently ranging from below freezing
along the international border in New York up to the upper 50s
in southern Vermont. Our forecast area will be under cold air
advection today with northerly flow in place behind departing
cold front and high pressure ridging into our area from Canada.
High temperatures today will be pretty cool, ranging from the
mid 30s in the colder spots of the Dacks and northern Greens, to
the lower 50s in southern Vermont. Winds will be out of the
north and a bit breezy today. The cooler temperatures today
should slow down the snowmelt which occurred yesterday. A few
rivers are currently rising fairly sharply as snowmelt and rain
runoff both are making it into the larger scale basins. Will
continue to monitor Ausable River and Otter Creek, but at this
time looks like these rivers will crest above action stage but
below minor flood stage.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Low pressure system will track from the Great
Lakes area to our north and west. A trough associated with this
low will be over our area on Thursday into Friday, and this will
bring our next chances for light precipitation. As cold air
remains trapped east of the Greens, could see some light icing
as the precipitation lifts into our area from south to north
early Thursday morning. At this time looks like it will be only
light ice accretions but we may need another winter weather
advisory for the Adirondacks and areas east of the Greens if it
continues to look like we`ll have some minor ice accretions. The
QPF from this system will overall be pretty light, which should
also limit the amount of ice accretion expected. Total QPF will
range from around a tenth of an inch up to a third of an inch.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Forecast confidence is high during the late
Saturday through Sunday period associate with an intensifying
low pressure system tracking northeastward across the western
Great Lakes. This frontal system will begin with a warm front
lifting through our area, setting the stage for a period of
widespread rain and additional high elevation snowmelt. At this
time, the risk of excessive rainfall is low, only reaching 5%
within 25 miles of a given location in the St. Lawrence Valley
per WPC. The only way we`ll see any risk of flash flooding is if
we see thunderstorms and the associated intense convection, and
the probabilities currently peak Saturday night below 15%. The
progged IVT (Integrated Vapor Transport) from the NAEFS shows
climatologically high values focused in our northwestern areas
coincident with the most anomalous 925 millibar temperatures
potentially above the 95th percentile. The storm track and
associated large scale lift and moisture should favor northern
New York over Vermont, although widespread rain can be expected
areawide through at least Sunday morning.

The system`s cold front and its timing of sliding eastward
through our region remains somewhat uncertain. The 00Z guidance
continues to show most of the GEFS being a bit faster (roughly 6
hours) than a slower, multi-model scenario. Think the consensus
in the middle will be the actual outcome, which shows rainfall
totals generally 0.5" to 1" with higher amounts west and lower
amounts east for the most part. Note 90th percentile amounts are
only about 0.5" greater; as such, risk of substantial impacts
due to heavy rain is low for this event at this time. Cooling
aloft behind the front will support some gusty winds, again
especially in the St. Lawrence Valley with favorable
southwesterly flow. Risk of hazardous winds are low, however,
with low (under 20%) chance of wind gusts reaching Advisory
level. The steep low level lapse rates should help temperatures
Sunday stay fairly warm despite the cooling aloft across the
region. So while not as warm as Saturday, especially in the
higher terrain, temperatures are still likely to be above normal
ranging from the low 50s to low 60s in most locations.

KEY MESSAGE 4: A return to a familiar winter pattern with a
trough over the northeastern US will be present through at least
the first few days of the work week. At this time, there are no
signals for extreme weather, although colder than seasonable
conditions could support snow showers even into lower
elevations. The GFS and its ensemble, including the AI-GEFS, is
fairly aggressive with the cold air. This guidance has
particularly low 500 millibar heights and associated northerly
flow leading to 925 millibar temperatures falling below the 10th
percentile Wednesday morning. However, all ensemble data shows
well below normal temperatures in the Tuesday night to Wednesday
period, so a wintry air mass looks likely for that midweek
period before an inevitable return to seasonable conditions.
Temperatures in this period could average 10 or more degrees
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...A wide range of flight conditions are
present overnight, with LIFR/IFR at most sites north/cold side
of nearly stationary boundary. There are scattered showers which
will exit the airspace by 10Z as surface low pressure finally
passes to the east along with LLWS. In response, surface winds
will becoming more persistently westerly, although down valley
flow will keep winds more northerly at PBG, RUT, and BTV.
Probability of IFR conditions remains relatively low at MPV,
with mainly MVFR ceilings through much of the period, and at PBG
where a tempo group was used. At RUT, it appears that several
hours of low ceilings are likely after winds shift northerly
given likelihood of near 100% humidity as introduction of
sharply colder, denser air helps lower cloud bases. Drier air
will gradually lead to ceilings coming up with time; improvement
from IFR to MVFR can be expected between about 13 and 15Z at
BTV and EFK, and 14 and 16Z at MSS and SLK. Towards 00Z largely
VFR conditions will be present at terminals with north/northwest
winds becoming light.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
FZRA, Chance SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely RA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV