488
FXUS61 KBTV 221255
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
855 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 843 AM EDT Sunday...
Confidence has increased for a light glaze up to 0.05 inches of
ice for majority of the region late this morning into this
afternoon as warm air aloft is allowing for pockets of freezing
rain this morning. Freezing drizzle remains likely late tonight
into Monday morning with an additional 0.05 inches of ice
possible across central and southern Vermont.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 808 AM EDT Sunday...
1. Snow to continue through this evening with a change to
freezing drizzle tonight and Monday morning.
2. Afternoon snow showers expected on Monday. Seasonally cool
and drier for Tuesday and Wednesday.
3. Multiple weather disturbances expected for Vermont and
Northern New York for the back end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 843 AM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1:
8:45 AM Update: Based on reports and temperatures across the
area, freezing rain is a bit more widespread this morning across
the St. Lawrence Valley, particularly at Massena, New York.
Temperature profiles continue to support an area of mixed
precipitation ahead of rain in a narrow band from Massena, New
York to Middlebury and Springfield in Vermont. Mixed
precipitation will become confined to the northern fringes of
the northern Adirondacks and east-central Greens this afternoon
as the system tracks east and moisture profiles dry out.
Freezing drizzle is still expected to develop this evening into
tonight.
Previous Discussion...Snowfall amounts across northern New York
have been adjusted down slightly to account for the period of
wet-bulbing with amounts increased across northern Vermont. The
high res guidance and HREF is showing a solid period of .5 to
.75 inch/hour snowfall rates across far northern Vermont and the
Northeast Kingdom this morning which should easily allow for
3-6 inches of snowfall with localized amounts slightly higher.
It`s looking increasingly likely than a break in precipitation may
occur this afternoon; mainly across northern New York and the
southern two-thirds of Vermont. Snow is expected to linger longer
across northern Vermont as flow becomes increasingly blocked this
afternoon and evening. As precipitation begins to taper off after 2
PM, we expect significant drying within the DGZ which may switch any
rain/snow that is ongoing to a drizzle/freezing drizzle based on
boundary layer and surface temperatures. The period that is of most
concern will be tonight through Monday morning as deep low level
moisture will be present with absolutely no ice nuclei within the
DGZ. We are expecting freezing drizzle to spread across the region
resulting in a glaze to up to a tenth of icing across Vermont and
portions of northern New York. The freezing drizzle may not actually
fall like rain but may be suspended within fog which could cause
some very slippery conditions on untreated surfaces. It`s likely
this freezing drizzle has an impact on the Monday morning
commute.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Although precipitation associated with the weekend
system ends Monday morning, it`s looking increasingly likely that we
will see scattered snow showers Monday afternoon. Steep low level
lapse rates coupled with low level moisture will help spark the snow
showers. They should be fairly widespread with most locations likely
to see some light snow but amounts will be highly variable give the
showery pattern. It appears that up to 2 inches of snow may be
possible across the higher terrain with a dusting to minor
accumulations at lower elevations. This will be more of a nuisance
and won`t bring us snow amounts anywhere close to what we saw
this last week.
Deep layer ridging is expected to develop Monday night and put an
end to the snow showers. Drier conditions are expected underneath
this high pressure but temperatures will remain several degrees
below normal as we will still remain underneath the influence of a
synoptic scale longwave trough.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A cold front pushes through Wednesday morning, bringing
some snow showers, with the best chances along the western slopes
where orographic lift can help the lack of forcing and moisture.
There`s still some question on how far south the cold air moves into
the region, with highs in the low 30s across the northern half of
the CWA and in the upper 30s to 40s across the southern counties.
Models are still split on the next system that could move through
early on Thursday, with low tracks to the north and south of the
region, bringing some chances for early snow showers.
Models do have better agreement for the system directly behind, that
moves in late Thursday night and into Friday morning that brings a
general rain-snow mix to the area that will bare watching. Behind
this system we could see a brief unseasonable cool down Friday night
with overnight lows in the teens to single digits before becoming
more seasonal next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Snow is moving through the area currently
with a mix of MVFR to LIFR conditions at most TAF sites. Both
ceilings and visibility are ranging back and forth will continue
until the snow moves out. Precip should exit our taf sites by
22z, with lingering areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle
developing, along with lowering ceiling back toward IFR and
possibly LIFR at a few locations, especially Champlain Valley
with developing northwest winds after 21z. This wind direction
combined with strongly blocked flow, will result in a long
duration of IFR cigs at RUT/BTV thru Sunday night, with
additional IFR cigs likely at SLK/MPV and EFK. Some localized
low level wind shear is likely through mid morning.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
FZDZ.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SN, Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance
SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for VTZ003-004-
006>008-010-017>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NYZ027-030-
031-034.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Verasamy/Clay
AVIATION...Verasamy
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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