350
FXUS61 KBTV 061141
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
641 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 206 AM EST Friday...
Temperatures mid next week trending significantly colder, the system
is trending from all rain to potential wintry mix.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 206 AM EST Friday...
1. Mixed precipitation exits this morning.
2. Rain Saturday preceded by pockets of freezing drizzle.
3. The potential for ice jams and localized hydrological related
issues will need to be monitored this weekend thru the middle of
next week due to the potential for well above average temperatures.
However,the trend for mid week and late next week is colder.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 206 AM EST Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The current mixed precipitation has gradually been
transitioning to snow, and that process will continue during the
rest of the night. Everywhere east of the Greens is now snow, with
pockets of northern New York and western Vermont now snow. The last
places to change to snow look to be along the western slopes of the
Greens where downsloping has been occurring. Overall, due to the
observed totals and precipitation type transition, increased snow
totals a little for central and southern Vermont where 1-3 inches
are now expected. The precipitation will move out by around 7 AM.
Lingering slippery spots are possible for the morning commute
though. Temperatures will rise above freezing for most areas
tomorrow, though the higher elevations of the southern/central
Greens and points east may stay below freezing for the entire day so
some snow/slush could linger in the roads for those places.
KEY MESSAGE 2: An area of low pressure tracks over the Great Lakes into
Canada Friday night and Saturday, as a Bermuda type high remains
established off the coast. This sets the stage for strong warm air
and moisture advection. However, surface cold air looks to remain
entrenched east of the Greens Friday night into early Saturday as
the antecedent cold high remains near Atlantic Canada. A few showers
look to occur during this period, and abundant low level moisture
could cause some areas of mist and drizzle. These could freeze in
any of the cold hollows. Increasing winds Friday night should
prevent significant fog from forming, but with the warm moist air
over extensive snowpack it is still possible, especially in the
protected hollows. Temperatures look to rise above freezing region
wide early Saturday and eventually reach the 50s for most areas,
with a run at 60 possible for parts of northern New York. While a
round of showers is possible in the morning, most of the day should
be dry. The cold front comes through late in the day and overnight,
bringing round of potentially heavy showers. A few rumbles of
thunder are possible over northern New York. From a hydro
perspective, the amount of rain should not be overly high. The line
should be relatively fast moving and most of the day should be dry.
Probabilities of a half inch of rain from a combination of GEFS/EPS
and CMC ensemble members is below 50 percent for most places.
However, combined with warm temperatures and dew points reaching the
40s, significant snowmelt will occur, though the fastest rates will
be pretty short lived. Gusty southerly winds will occur on Saturday,
with localized enhancements in the Champlain Valley due to
channeling and in the northern Adirondacks due to downsloping. These
winds will also enhance snowmelt.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The potential for ice jams and localized
hydrological related issues will need to be monitored this
weekend thru the middle of next week due to the potential for
well above average temperatures. However, the trend for mid week
and late next week is colder.
Milder weather from the weekend continues into early next week but
the trends for Tuesday and especially Wednesday are significantly
colder that may not be totally captured in the WPC forecast right
now that was largely based on earlier data.
Mild temperatures in the 40s and 50s this weekend will promote
snowmelt across the region but still some nighttime lows below
freezing will slow/stop snowmelt for a period. Greatest will be
across NY and Greens westward. This will need to ripen the snowpack
before running into watersheds thus there may be some river level
rises but likely not enough to lift river ice and cause breakup but
still need to monitor in case.
Mild temperatures continue Monday through Tuesday with Max T mainly
50s Mon/Tue although possibly 40s in the north and overnight mins
above freezing. This will just continue to accelerate any snowmelt
with water flowing into watersheds and a greater chance of possible
ice lifting, breakup and potential ice jams.
Remember snowmelt alone normally does not cause widespread flooding
but does cause river rises and those with ice cover are subject to
ice movement and possiible jams as just mentioned.
Some significant changes have been trending in the model data over
the last few days. Initially it was looking like 60s Tuesday-
Wednesday with a decent rainfall event on Wednesday. However the
trends of the last few days and especially the last 12-24 hours have
been much colder for Tuesday night-Wednesday.
The main ensemble and deterministic medium range models (ECMWF, GEM,
GFS) have been trending colder with some differences as much as 20+
degrees than just 24 hours ago. 01z NBM has some 20-25 degrees
difference within the 25-75th percentiles on Wed with BTV 40-63
degrees in the spread. The current forecast is slightly cooler than
the mean.
The cause is a northern stream shortwave traveling across eastern
Canada will try to lay a frontal boundary across or near our CWA Mon
ngt-Tue. In addition...theres more of a zonal flow across the north
with several shortwaves and it doesn`t appear to phase with the
southwest cutoff which was a possibility earlier in the week with a
deep meridional flow and warmth for our area. Rather the storm track
for late Tuesday night-Wed is near or across our CWA.
These differences impact ptype and potential flooding issues. I`ll
start with the latter. Colder temperatures Tues ngt-Wed will slow or
even stop snowmelt in portions of the CWA. QPF ranges of 0.5 to 1
inch with some of this could be in the frozen variety.
River Ensemble guidance of the GEFS/NAEFS has backed off on the
possibility of major flooding and shows possible minor flooding or
action stages. We`re not out of the woods but the trends are
positive.
In terms of ptype late Tuesday night-Wed...it looks like rain
changing to snow in the north early Wednesday morning then back to
rain during the day but this may be too mild given what I mentioned
earlier. Stay tuned for more.
Thu-Fri look seasonably cool with highs in the 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Currently -sn exiting southern VT and
this trend continues with mainly VFR with bkn-ovc skies. SSE
flow aloft will bring some low level moisture in the terms of
keeping the clouds and likely lowering as inversion in place and
likely strengthening with time. Expect MVFR cigs to develop aft
00z Sat and continue with the approach of next precipitation
maker closer toward 12z Sat. Soundings indicate potential
freezing drizzle aft 00z across central-eastern VT at KMPV and
possibly KEFK.
Winds will generally be SSE across the area at 5-10 kts with
possible developing LLWS aft 00z Sat. Also aft 00z...gradient
increases with S winds 10-15+kts for most sites but E at 10 kts
for KMSS.
Outlook...
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
35 kt. Chance RA, Likely FZRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
RA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
VTZ009-011-018-019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
NYZ034.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...SLW/Myskowski
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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