412
FXUS61 KBTV 042333
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
733 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 246 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 246 PM EDT Monday...

1. Gusty winds tomorrow.

2. Showers arrive Tuesday afternoon and evening, followed by a
rainy Wednesday.

3. No major impacts or significant weather expected late week
into next weekend, as the pattern continues to support unsettled
conditions with below normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 246 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A low level jet moves overhead tomorrow, bringing wind
gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range for most areas. However, localized
gusts up to 40 or even 45 mph are possible, with the strongest winds
expected in the St. Lawrence Valley and far northern Adirondacks.
The limiting factor for the strong winds will be a broken line of
showers moving in from the northwest. Once the rain arrives, the
limited mixing will cause synoptic winds to decrease. Despite the
strong winds, relative humidity values being around and over 40
percent will prevent significant fire weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front pushes into the region Tuesday afternoon
and evening, bringing a line of showers. While a few scattered
showers are possible earlier, the organized precipitation looks to
enter northern New York in the afternoon and Vermont in the evening.
Enough heating looks to occur ahead of it that modest instability
will develop. HREF mean values range between 250 and 750 J. The main
limiting factor for storm development will be moisture, with surface
dew points looking to be in the 40s to mid 50s at the time of the
precipitation`s arrival. Other limiting factors will be increasing
cloud cover, the lack of a well defined boundary during the day and
slight height rises.  While there is abundant deep layer shear, due
to the limited instability, strong to severe storms currently look
unlikely, though a few rumbles of thunder are possible. The strong
shear may act more to blow off the top of the storms and weaken them
than help organize them due to the modest instability. The scenario
to watch would be if something develops along a pre-frontal trough
in the afternoon, something akin to what the NAM3 has, though its
dew points currently look too high. Overall, there is not much
change in thinking from yesterday and it looks to be a lower end
marginal case.  Widespread showers should occur Tuesday night as the
front slows down across the region, but by that point, the
precipitation should be mostly stratiform and synoptically forced.
Widespread stratiform rainfall will occur for most of the day
Wednesday as a low develops along the front, making it a complete
washout for most areas. 1-2 inches are expected in total.
Temperatures will be in the 40s for most areas, though southeastern
Vermont should see 60s as they will be south of the precip and
front. Cool weather and a few showers will occur Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Aside from Friday night when consensus is strong on dry
weather, some daily chances for showers will persist through the
weekend with another longwave trough parked over the area. Best
chances for showers is currently Saturday. Any showers look to favor
a more scattered nature than prevailing rain with an upper low
continuing to gyrate about the Hudson Bay in Canada, and low level
lapse rate steepening under cooling air aloft. Shallow instability
will also aid any shower development, with similar conditions to
this last weekend. However, while the pattern will be similar to
last weekend, ensembles do not appear as cold. GEFS/EPS thermal
profiles support temperatures this weekend in the upper 50s to low
60s for daytime highs, and mid 30s to near 40 for overnight lows.
Drying mid level air columns towards the surface Friday night, in
addition to some calming winds may support some temperatures
conducive for frost Friday and Saturday mornings, however, looking
upstream, cloud cover over central Canada (where our weekend airmass
will originate), is fairly widespread which attm reduces confidence
in any frost. Though we will continue to monitor trends.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Gusty winds tomorrow. Showers arrive
Tuesday afternoon and evening, followed by a rainy Wednesday.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least 12Z
Tuesday under subtle ridging. Winds out of the southwest 5-15
knots this evening with scattered gusts 15-25 knots are expected
to continue overnight tonight, increasing to sustained 15-25
knots with gusts 25-35 knots by around 09Z-15Z Tuesday, the
highest in the St. Lawrence Valley where SW channeling could
allow for gusts 35-40 knots at MSS after 18Z Tuesday. Winds
aloft will also be on the increase, more quickly than surface
winds, allowing for some LLWS for a period between 04Z and 14Z
Tuesday before surface winds align better with the low level
jet. Ceilings will be on the decrease as our next round of
precipitation approaches, but these should stay above 3000 feet
above ground level at all sites except SLK and MSS, which may
have a period of up and down cigs around 2500-3500 feet 12Z
through 20Z Tuesday, a mix of SCT and BKN at times. Rain is
forecast to arrive around 15Z-21Z Tuesday, moving west to east.
Showers are expected to be overall light, though they could
become heavier at times and with any rumbles of thunder.
Confidence in timing of this heavy rain and/or thunderstorms is
not high enough to specify in TAFs. Low level jet looks to
strengthen again around 18Z-21Z and onwards, resulting in the
return of some LLWS to several sites.


Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA,
Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Myskowski
AVIATION...Storm