397
FXUS61 KBTV 281133
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
633 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 100 AM EST Wednesday...
Nothing has changed.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 100 AM EST Wednesday...
1. Several rounds of light snow showers this week.
2. Cold temperatures/wind chills Thursday night.
3. Nor`easter likely to remain well out to sea.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 100 AM EST Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A large upper level trough sits over the region this
week, leading to an extended period of moist cyclonic flow. Several
shortwaves will pivot around this trough and bring a isolated to
scattered snow showers. However, these will generally be moisture
starved and accumulations will be minimal. The most consistent snow
looks to be Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Slightly deeper
moisture, a low saturated dendritic growth zone and northwest flow
will cause widespread upslope snow showers, though the moisture will
be too shallow for any significant accumulation. Forecast snow
totals are under an inch despite a relatively long period of snow
showers for the higher elevations. Flow looks to become quite
blocked so snow showers are also possible down all the way in the
Champlain Valley.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A reinforcing shot of cold air enters Thursday and drops
temperatures further for Thursday night into Friday. Cold air
advection should continue through Thursday night for most places,
keeping the boundary layer coupled and some wind around. These
winds, combined with the cold temperatures, look to drop wind chills
into the -15 to -25 degree range for most places. However, there is
some uncertainty regarding on how low they go. This could end up
being a case where either temperatures fall to their current lows or
even farther, or winds stay up but temperatures are warmer then
forecast. These could end up causing higher wind chills than
forecast. Model guidance is still split on the amount the boundary
layer will decouple and how many clouds will be around, but as the
forecast stands, a Cold Weather Advisory would need to be at least
issued for the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley. &&
KEY MESSAGE 3: The vast majority (~90%) of models keep strong coastal
low south of the 40 N, 70 W benchmark, and so if we receive any
precipitation, it may be associated with moisture pulled in from the
Labrador Sea while we remain under northeast flow. Breezy north
winds will be felt, though, with gusts up to 20 mph over the eastern
portion of Vermont. Some probabilistic guidance suggests the
potential for some 30 mph gusts, but these chances are rather low at
less than 20 percent, but will keep an eye. The trajectory of the
low is such that we don`t see much cold air as flow stays
northeastwards, and this means we`ll at least see some 20s for
daytime highs, which is closer to normal than we`ve been the last
several days.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Again, snow showers linger at KEFK,
KSLK, and KMPV, with the greatest reductions in visibility
taking place at KEFK. It has been more persistent than expected.
Forecast soundings at various locations indicate some drying
between 14z to 17z, which seems reasonable as the sun rises and
surface lapse rates increase. Ceilings around 3500-5000 ft agl
are expected through the day with winds out of the southwest
about 4 to 9 knots. An approaching trough will result in
slowing, more variable winds. Ceilings will trend towards
2000-3000 ft agl, as well. Snow is possible, but the extent is
uncertain, and visibilities restrictions may be minimal.
Remained with PROB30s in the forecast now between about 03z and
08z.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Myskowski
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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