369
FXUS61 KBTV 291441
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
941 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering snow showers will continue to taper off through the
morning as high pressure builds into the region, bring cold and
drier weather for today. A low pressure system will arrive Sunday,
bringing some light snow accumulations to much of the area, with a
transition to rain expected within the valleys. An active wintry
weather pattern will continue behind it to kick off December, with
another system expected to impact the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 941 AM EST Saturday...Made a morning update to show snow
showers continuing in the northern Greens and portions of
northeastern Vermont and boost sky cover per area webcams and
satellite imagery. Aside from the typical downslope areas in
westerly flow in the Champlain Valley and Upper Valley, skies
remain cloudy with mountain wave clouds present. Improvement
could be rapid but not until sometime this afternoon.
Previous Discussion...
A cool and relatively dry day is expected across the region
today as as high pressure briefly builds over the region,
bringing a short break in the active weather pattern. Lingering
showers across the region will continue to taper off through the
morning, with dry conditions prevailing for the majority of the
day. Skies should gradually clear through the day, with most
locations having a chance of seeing blue skies, albeit brief as
high clouds associated with the low pressure system will begin
to stream into the region late today. Daytime highs will be on
the cool side today, with temperatures only in the upper 20s to
mid 30s.
The next system will quickly arrive early Sunday morning, with the
low tracking out of the Great Lakes up the St. Lawrence Valley,
bringing another round of widespread precipitation. Precipitation
looks to start as snow across the region, but warm southerly flow
will allow for temperatures to warm enough in the broader valleys
that any snowfall should quickly transition to rain, while the
mountains should remain snow throughout the event. Snowfall amounts
will be light, with a few inches expected in the higher terrain. In
addition to the precipitation, winds will be on the breezy side
Sunday with a low level jet overhead, with gusts of 25 to 40
mph possible, especially in the Champlain Valley due to
channeling. Temperatures during the day Sunday will generally in
the 30s to low 40s, with overnight lows dropping into the teens
and 20s as the system pulls away from the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 132 AM EST Saturday...Cool and quiet weather is expected during
the day Monday as another brief period of high pressure builds into
the region in between systems. High temperatures on Monday look to
only climb into the 20s to low 30s, with most locations struggling
to get above freezing. Dry weather and lighter winds are expected
throughout the day, with a few chances for some blue skies in the
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 AM EST Saturday...There are two notable weather
producing systems depicted in model guidance next week. The
initial focus remains on Tuesday for the formation and rapid
deepening of an offshore low that would likely bring some
accumulating snowfall to portions of northern New York and
Vermont. Overwhelmingly, model probabilities favor an unblocked
pattern than would sharply limit residence time of any system,
but all suites do show some accumulations being likely. Best
chances for impactful amounts remain across southern/central
Vermont with more token amounts northward and westward. The
track of the low will be key in determining snowfall amounts,
but around 4 inches or a little more for southern/central
Vermont continues to fall into reasonable expectation at this
point given 40-55% likelihood per NBM 24hr accumulation
probabilities; chances of greater than 7 inches for southern
Vermont around in the 30-40% range at this time. Should the
track edge northward, likelihoods will increase. Temperatures
are favored to range from the lower 30s for highs to lower 20s
for lows through Wednesday night.
The second notable system is a probable arctic front in the
vicinity of Thursday. Model guidance continues to depict a
sharp frontal boundary bringing colder temperatures across the
region later next week. This pattern typically favors more
squall-like showers potentially forming along a line sweeping
through the region. Thermal signatures are strong this far out
and point to the potential for an even sharper cooldown with
lows potentially in the single digits around zero and wind chill
values below zero. The pattern will likely stay active late
week into the weekend with large-scale blocking highly unlikely
and longwave troughing trending over the Northeast.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Snow showers continue mainly in
northeastern Vermont keeping some IFR conditions going at EFK
and MVFR CIGs at SLK. As winds slow, BTV could see some cloud
cover thicken and lower to MVFR in the 13-15Z time frame; clouds
are blossoming along the western slopes of the Greens and may
build westward as Froude numbers fall. By 16Z, snow showers
should be trending sharply downward at EFK with about a 30%
chance of MVFR CIGs continuing until 18Z at EFK/SLK. Some gusts
to 20kts will continue overnight before the gradient weakens
ahead of the next system. After 06Z, CIGs begin to lower in the
Adirondacks with a warm front moving northward. Some SN and
potential for MVFR VIS will be present at SLK with fewer showers
in the Champlain Valley after 09Z. MSS/SLK should go MVFR in the
08-10Z time frame depending on timing of the warm front. Winds
will shift overnight more southerly except at MSS where NE flow
will prevail due to favorable terrain alignment with the
pressure gradient.
Outlook...
Sunday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SN, Definite RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is not currently in effect as winds have
turned more westerly and will continue to gradually diminish
today under 20 knots.
However, another period of strong lake winds is expected Sunday.
Large scale southerly flow will result in sustained winds over
25 knots, and exceeding 30 knots for much of the day, in the
Inland Sea and Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Expect
substantial seiche action as waves build 2 to 4 feet in the
northern waters, and 4 to 6 feet on the broad waters. A slight
easterly component to the wind will favor areas like Cumberland
Bay with some of the largest waves through the afternoon before
shifting more due southerly.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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