768
FXUS61 KBTV 141140
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
640 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper will bring light snow through the morning hours, with
locally heavier snow in parts of northern New York and in the
higher terrain. Another clipper will bring more light snow later
Monday into Monday night. A warming trend will lead to the
potential of mixed precipitation types towards the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 133 AM EST Sunday...Some light snow is beginning to
spread into southern Vermont, while a broken band of lake effect
snow is making a few flakes fly across northern areas. The lake
effect declines as the night goes on, but the light snow over
southern reaches should become a bit more widespread. The snow
will eventually exit during the day. Dry weather lasts until
evening, although a stray flurry is possible, particularly in
some of the mountains. Some clearing is even possible in the far
northern areas in the afternoon. The clouds quickly return in
the evening as northwesterly flow strengthens. Moisture will
return to the snow growth zone in the evening, which due to cold
air advection, will only be around and slightly above the
surface. The moist northwest flow will therefore cause some
upslope snow to develop, particularly along the spine of the
northern Green Mountains. The froude numbers will quickly drop
during the afternoon and evening, and flow will head into the
blocked range. The saturated DGZ will be quite important, as the
depth of the moisture will be shallow. Therefore, the snow
formation will still be quite efficient. In general the extent
of the DGZ looks to be around 5,000 feet or so. The one caveat
here is the extent of the moisture, but overall, several hours
of upslope snow should still occur. Totals in the 1-4 inch range
look likely. The low froude numbers, between 0.25 to 0.5,
indicate that the accumulating snow should be able to lower into
some of the immediate Champlain Valley. The upslope will
gradually taper off on Monday, though lingering clouds should
last longer in most areas. After the upslope ends, the next
clipper arrives in the afternoon and evening. This clipper will
gradually spread some light snow from west to east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 133 AM EST Sunday...Some scattered snow showers will
continue going through Monday night. Some lake enhancement will
be possible over parts of St. Lawrence County Monday evening,
but flow will become too westerly quite quickly and this will
cause any of the remaining lake effect showers to shift south of
the region. Some upslope snow is briefly possible on the
backside of the clipper, but it would be light and brief.
Because the region will be on the northern edge of the lake
effect, totals will be low due to its short residence time.
Parts of St. Lawrence County could maybe see between 2-4 inches,
with totals dropping quickly to the north and east. A warming
trend begins Tuesday, with highly amplified ridging across the
western part of the country quickly moving east. However,
temperatures will stay below freezing during the day. Despite
strong warm air advection, winds will not be overly high, with
peak gusts in the 10-20 mph range. Some sunshine will occur,
especially in the lower Connecticut River Valley, but some high
clouds will move in during the afternoon ahead of the next
clipper.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 133 AM EST Sunday...Tuesday night will be dry but a low
pressure system will pass well north of our area on Wednesday,
and some light rain and snow showers are anticipated mainly
across our northern zones as trailing front and upper level
shortwave pushes east across the region. Some showers will then
linger into Wednesday night on northwesterly upslope flow. Next
system will move precipitation into our area Thursday night into
Friday. The surface low and mid level low will both pass north
of our region again, and the NBM is carrying categorical
probabilities of precipitation for Thursday night with likely on
Thursday and Friday. For now am mentioning just rain and snow
with this system. As we get closer can reevaluate to see if
there is a chance for mixed precipitation as well. This system
is pretty strong synoptically and with good forcing, so expect
the precipitation to be widespread. Heading into the weekend,
yet another low pressure system will pass to our north bringing
more precipitation. Temperatures through the long term look to
be warmer than seasonal normals, with the most mild day being
Thursday and into Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Currently conditions are VFR, though with
MVFR conditions at KRUT and IFR at KMPV. Winds 5 knots or less
or even variable as flow begins shifting to the west and
northwest. Some very light snow will lift up from the north.
Some light snow will continue through the morning hours at both
KMPV and KRUT. Other sites should mostly avoid the snow this
time. Light snow will pivot back southeast as a boundary
continues farther south about 15z, with northwest winds
increasing to 5 to 9 knots, and this will also bring improving
ceilings. After 22z, winds will become 5 knots or less.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: MVFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance RA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV