878
FXUS61 KBTV 181124
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
724 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Gorgeous weather is in store for today with cooler temperatures and
low humidity. Dry weather prevails through tomorrow before showers
move through tomorrow night and into Sunday. A subsequent cold front
will drop temperatures a bit more for the beginning of next week,
bringing a little taste of Fall.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 234 AM EDT Friday...A strong cold front passed through this
evening, and much cooler and drier air is quickly advecting into the
region. Dew points have dropped into the 50s in most areas and they
will continue to fall. Temperatures should also reach the 50s by
morning outside the broad valleys. Enough of a westerly component
seems to be causing downsloping off the Adirondacks and into the
Champlain Valley, keeping the low levels a bit warmer than forecast.
As winds shift more northerly during the rest of the night, the
colder air at the surface should be able to funnel down the
Champlain Valley and drop temperatures more. A lot of stratocumulus
remains on the backside of the front and there are some areas of
mist and drizzle from cloud tops too low for the radar to pick up,
and this will continue in a few areas for the rest of the night.
Skies will clear quickly during the day today. The low level jet
exits pretty abruptly in the morning and winds will lighten quickly.
A gorgeous day is in store, with highs in the 70s and dew points in
the 40s and 50s. Clear skies, calm winds and a very dry airmass will
cause efficient radiational cooling tonight, and temperatures will
fall into the 40s and 50s. Some of the coldest hollows may see
temperatures in the upper 30s, with the MAV forecasting 39 for SLK.
Surface high pressure shifts to the east tomorrow, beginning return
southerly flow. Temperatures should rise very close to
climatological normals and humidity will stay quite low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 234 AM EDT Friday...A weak surface low looks to track west to
east either right over the region or just to the south Saturday
night into Sunday. It will overspread showers during this time,
though there will be breaks in many areas. While some elevated
instability will cause the potential for a few embedded
thunderstorms, the precipitation should have some stratiform
elements and the placement on the north side of the low should limit
the chances considerably. There is no severe threat and the
precipitation rates will be relatively low and quick moving so there
is no flood threat. A few showers may linger into Sunday afternoon,
particularly in eastern and upslope areas. Currently, up to around a
half inch looks likely with the heaviest precipitation near or just
north of the center of the low. Clouds and showers will keep lows
Saturday night slightly above normals and keep highs Sunday slightly
below normals.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Friday...Confidence continues to increase for a
period of below normal temps and dry conditions for early next
week, followed by a warming trend with some showers late next
week. Mid/upper lvl trof deepens on Sunday night into Monday
with brisk northwest flow from sharpening pres gradient. Progged
sfc analysis shows departing sub 1000mb low pres over northern
Maine and building 1022mb high pres acrs the northern Great
Lakes on Monday. This wl create strong llvl caa with progged
850mb temps btwn 2-4C and pw values near 0.50". This dry airmass
should result in cool nights and mild days for early next week
with comfortable humidity values. Did knock off 2 to 4 degrees
for overnight lows on Tues morning from the NBM with values in
the upper 30s to 60F near Lake Champlain, given the very warm
water temps. Highs generally in the mid 60s to mid 70s. As sfc
high pres shifts to our east, llvl waa develops on Weds into
Thurs and temps rebound back into the 80s. As a series of
boundaries moves acrs our cwa the threat for showers wl
increase, along with the humidity values, especially by late
week. The probability of impactful or hazardous weather during
the long term is very low attm.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z Saturday...Lingering MVFR cigs at SLK/MPV and BTV
will quickly improve by 15z this morning with VFR conditions
prevailing at all sites for the next 24 hours. Confidence in fog
tonight is too low to mention in tafs attm, but will continue
to monitor dewpoint trends this afternoon for mention in later
taf packages. Northwest winds 10 to 20 knot with localized gusts
up to 25 knots will slowly diminish as surface high pres builds
across our taf sites this afternoon.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
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