000
FXUS61 KBTV 262333
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
733 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure allowed temperatures to return to near normal today.
Expect a slight warm up over the weekend, with temperatures reaching
into the upper 60s in the warmest locations Sunday. A number of weak
shortwaves will pass over Vermont and Northern New York during the
forecast period, with widespread, light precipitation in the
forecast over the weekend and beyond.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 639 PM EDT Friday...The forecast remains on track.
Lowered dew points slightly for the early evening to reflect
observations, but with mixing decreasing overnight, dew points
should rise back to where they were originally forecast later
this evening. Skies remain clear with the high clouds still well
to the west over Ontario. Previous discussion follows...
Previous discussion...High pressure will continue to keep the
skies clear overnight, once again allowing our temperatures to
fall below freezing in some of the cold hollows. The western
flanks of our CWA will see some clouds with a slight chance of
light rain moving in ahead of a low pressure system by the later
morning Saturday. Dry air trapped in the boundary layer will
ensure qpf amounts remain low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 301 PM EDT Friday...Mostly cloudy conditions are expected to
prevail across the region Sunday into Sunday night as an 850mb warm
front translates the area during the daylight hours from west-
to-east. Continues to appear in NAM forecast soundings that some
modest elevated instability will be present within the frontal
zone, and continued with the idea of scattered showers on
Sunday, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Most areas will
see only light precipitation amounts, mainly 0.10" or less.
However, given the increase in PW values above 1" and MUCAPE up
to 500 J/kg, localized areas that do see a heavier shower or
embedded thunderstorm could see locally higher rainfall, perhaps
up to 0.25" to 0.50". Highest PoPs of 40- 60% will be across
far northern VT and into the St. Lawrence Valley of northern NY.
Despite the cloudiness, developing south winds of 10- 15 mph
(and gusts locally 20-25 mph in the Champlain Valley) will allow
for temperatures slightly above seasonal averages for late
April...generally reaching 65-70F across most locations of the
North Country. Warmest readings should be in the CT River
Valley, the Champlain Valley, and St. Lawrence county.
Heading into Sunday night, a trailing cold front settles sewd from
Ontario and swrn Quebec, bringing lingering chances for some light
rain shower activity, generally before 04Z before dissipating
overnight. Highest PoPs will again be across northern sections, with
PoPs near 40% along the intl border. Should see a NW wind shift with
moderately strong CAA as surface ridging builds into our region
after midnight. Overnight lows generally in the mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 301 PM EDT Friday...Recent NWP trends continue slightly cooler
for both Monday and Tuesday. Canadian high pressure and a swd
extending ridge across into nrn NY and VT on Monday will support
northerly winds, and a shallow cool air mass advecting southward
across our region early Monday. Abundant stratus are likely Monday
morning, but given the late April sun angle, should see developing
partly to mostly sunny conditions by afternoon as clouds will
gradually mix out. That will help temperatures reach the mid 60s,
but not the mid 70s which appeared likely a couple days ago. Ridge
axis shifts eastward Monday night into Tuesday, allowing a mid-level
trough to bring widespread clouds and showers to the region
throughout the day Tuesday. Have indicated relatively high PoPs
(70-80%). Looking for high temperatures on Tuesday in the upper 50s
to mid 60s across VT (coolest east of the Green Mtns) and generally
in the mid-upper 60s across northern NY. Once this trough shifts to
the east Tuesday night, should see generally drier conditions across
the North Country through the end of the work week. Temperatures
will remain near to slightly above normal, with highs generally in
the mid-upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions will persist through the entire
TAF period at all terminals. Winds will remain relatively light
tonight before increasing a bit during the day tomorrow. Gusts up to
20 KTs are possible at any terminal. Winds will also shift to
southerly and southwesterly tomorrow. High clouds will overspread
the region tomorrow from west to east. Some rain showers look to
arrive at MSS tomorrow evening and they will lower ceilings a bit.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
April 29:
KBTV: 55/2013
KPBG: 57/1974
April 30:
KPBG: 54/2004
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Langbauer
NEAR TERM...Langbauer/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Myskowski
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
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