627
FXUS61 KBTV 090652
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
252 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 249 AM EDT Thursday...
Slightly better model agreement has lent some confidence to increase
rainfall amounts near the International Border, and along the
central Greens in Vermont. Localized heavy rain will be possible
today due to the presence of semi-training thunderstorms.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 249 AM EDT Thursday...
1. Scattered showers with isolated to scattered embedded
thunderstorms expected today into tonight. Localized heavy rain will
be possible with any thunderstorm activity.
2. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms early next
week with a warming trend as well.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 249 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: While there is a possibility of some localized fog this
morning, unlike yesterday, coverage will be far less than yesterday,
and will be confined to the Connecticut River Valley, generally
around sunrise, if any fog does form. Into the daylight hours today,
a cold front currently across the Great Lakes will slowly slide
eastward towards our CWA. The front will become quasi-stationary by
midday today, setting up along or just north of the International
Border, oriented west to east. Along the front, weak frontogenesis
will help limit the strength of the front, and overall hazards. A
pre-frontal trough will slide south of the boundary and help produce
some showers and thunderstorms focused across northern New York and
northwestern Vermont through this evening. Good instability will be
hard to achieve this afternoon with plenty of expected convective
debris from the west. That said, modest instability around 500-
1500J/kg should accompany the initial shortwave helping to develop
some isolated to scattered thunderstorms. As the first round of
showers and thunderstorms exists this evening, a brief lull in the
Champlain Valley will follow until closer to midnight tonight.
Showers will continue to linger across the St. Lawrence Valley
however. Between midnight and sunrise Friday, the cold front will
begin to slide south through the region, with a resurgence of shower
and possible thunderstorm activity. Precipitation will be mainly
focused over central and northern Vermont overnight. Stronger storms
continue to look unlikely today due to poor mid level lapse rates
and weaker shear to around 30-35 KTs. The severe threat will be
mainly conditional on late morning to early afternoon shower
activity, and will likely favor weak small bowing segments given
skinny CAPE profiles. If any storms were to become stronger,
damaging winds would be the main threat. Moisture content will be
the main concern, albeit still low concerns, with this system.
Storms will follow the mean flow vector which could lead to some
isolated training cells over northern New York. Pwats will be around
1.5-2" across much of northern New York, and northwestern Vermont in
addition to deep warm layer cloud depths. Given recent rain
overperformers with similar water profiles, have increased the
rainfall amounts slightly up, which has followed some trends in the
CAMs over northern New York and the central Greens. Total rainfall
between a quarter inch to half an inch is expected for most areas
north of US-4, with locally higher in the northern St. Lawrence
Valley and central Greens from thunderstorm activity. As we near
July 10th, and with the potential for some brief training storms
today, we wanted to say this event is not expected to be
anywhere near the flooding potential of recent years. While
localized heavy rains will be possible, widespread or damaging
flooding potential is not expected. Showers look to be
progressive and should not sit over any one area even if
multiple rounds of showers are possible.
As the cold front continues to slide south into Friday morning, some
lingering showers are possible in southern Vermont, with perhaps
some sprinkles and light showers until midday Friday. Behind the
front, cooler and drier northerly air will help temperatures fall to
the mid 70s to low 80s with dewpoints near 50 by Saturday afternoon.
Some fog may be possible in the usual river valleys Friday night due
to recent rains and clearing skies.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Ridging will build into the Northern Plains early next
week while an upper trough exits to our east. This will place
northern NY and New England under northwest flow. Models continue to
indicate a couple of weak fronts/surface troughs to ride through
this northwest flow and cross our region. However, timing varies
quite a bit from model and run to run, leading to considerable
uncertainty. Both moisture and warmth will increase through this
period, with highs approaching 90F and dewpoints rising into the
60s. With this in mind, any thunderstorms could be strong if any
boundaries push across the region during peak heating. The exact
timing is difficult to pinpoint this far out though, especially
given the differences in model solutions, so have stayed with
NBM/WPC forecast for now, with 25-40% PoPs each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Through 06Z Friday... Generally VFR conditions
are expected over the next several hours. Some IFR fog has already
developed at SLK, have covered this using a TEMPO group. Winds calm
or light and variable overnight, RUT has a drainage wind. A frontal
boundary is expected to shift south after 18z with showers and
thunderstorms, especially near the international border. The feature
will be slow to sag south, and so it may not reach KMPV or KRUT
until near or after 00z.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance TSRA, Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
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