384
FXUS61 KBTV 301039
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
639 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 319 AM EDT Monday...
Added patchy freezing rain late Tues into Weds and mentioned a
slight chance for thunder Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 319 AM EDT Monday...
1. A challenging temperature forecast and associated impacts on
precipitation type is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.
2. A slight chance of thunderstorms with localized heavy
downpours possible Tues aftn into Tuesday night, which could
cause sharp rises on area streams and rivers.
3. Mixed precipitation possible Thursday night into Friday,
with active weather continuing through the period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 319 AM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Sfc analysis places a warm frnt acrs our
northern/central cwa this morning with some virga on radar, as
crnt rh values in the CPV are in the 32% to 40%. A warm
southwest flow is expected today with progged 925mb temps in the
7-10C range, which with some sunshine should support highs mid
50s to mid 60s acrs our region. A few localized locations in the
lower CT River Valley could approach 70F. As sfc heating occur
our mixing depths wl increase, resulting in localized wind gusts
in the 18-25 knot range.
Tonight into Tues several embedded s/w`s wl pass along near the
International Border as arctic high pres near Hudson Bay tries
to move southward. This wl quickly sharpen a low level thermal
boundary acrs our region on Tuesday into Weds, as shallow cold
air on northerly flow undercuts warming temps aloft. The
sharpening inversion on soundings is extremely impressive with
progged 850mb temps near 12C, while bl temps are in the mid 30s.
This complex thermal setup makes for a very challenging
temps/ptype fcst on Tues into Weds, as bl temps are progged to
hover near 0C by late Tues into Weds acrs the northern CPV and
SLV. Have utilized the high res NAM3KM with Reggie/HRRR to
highlight cooler bl thermal profiles on Tues into Tues night,
with cold air draining down the deeper valleys. On Tues night
the higher trrn of the Dacks and central/southern Greens could
see temps in the mid 40s to mid/upper 50s, while northern SLV
and northern CPV is in the l/mid 30s with pockets of freezing
rain. Given the warm ground temps, feel any ice accumulation wl
be confined to mostly elevated sfcs with minimal impacts on
roads, especially with marginal air temps near 0C. The greatest
potential for a light glaze to a tenth of an inch or so of ice
accumulation wl be northern SLV and northern CPV, especially
northwest Clinton County.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Several ingredients are present to produce
localized heavy rainfall acrs our region late Tuesday into Weds,
where WPC continues to place our cwa in a marginal risk (5%) of
exceeding flash flooding guidance. Given our recent dry spell
and expected qpf values, think this is a little aggressive but
there is a non zero threat. The ingredients available for
producing localized heavy rainfall include a sharp boundary, pw
values near 1.0" or 2 to 3 std above normal, and modest values
of elevated instability. Areas of rain with embedded heavier
downpours with a few rumbles of thunder are possible late Tues
aftn into Tues night. Given the most unstable CAPE values of
300-700 J/kg, a few rumbles of thunder are possible, especially
northern NY, which could result in localized heavy downpours.
The storm vector analysis suggests some training/back building
of precip, as flow aloft is paralleling the low level thermal
boundary on Tues night. Its extremely difficult to pin point
where the location of the heaviest rainfall wl occur, but
greatest probability at this time would support central NY into
the Dacks and acrs central/southern VT, but this is subject to
change with movement of boundary. A wide range in highs and lows
are expected on Tues and Tues night, with generally cooler
weather for Weds. Additional mixed precip is expected on Weds
night into Thurs as sharp llvl thermal boundary lifts back
northward.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A low pressure system will track west of our
region on Friday and bring mixed precipitation and then rain to
the north country. With cold high pressure in place ahead of
this system, biggest threat for some freezing rain will be areas
east of the Greens where there will be some cold air damming on
Thursday night into early Friday. Models continue to show some
increased for freezing rain and ice accumulation east of the
Greens. Changes in the storm track could greatly alter the
precipitation type, and will continue to monitor this system as
we get closer to the end of the week. Low pressure slides
eastward Friday night and precipitation will end from west to
east as the low moves away. Another low pressure system with a
similar storm track is poised to impact our region Saturday
night into Sunday with low passing to our north and west. The
GFS and ECMWF are in decent agreement with track of this system,
though GFS is faster than ECMWF at this time. Cold high
pressure will ridge into the area out of Canada towards the
beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mid/high clouds moved in overnight. This
SCT-BKN cloud cover will remain AOA 5000 ft through 18z Mon,
then start to slowly lower thereafter as moisture increasing
ahead of an approaching cold front. Ceilings should generally
remain VFR until 00z, with KSLK the lone exception where some
MVFR ceilings will creep in during the afternoon hours. A few
showers are possible this afternoon, mainly over the higher
terrain. Gusty conditions develop today. Gusts of 20-30 kt are
expected, with the strongest gusts to occur in the St Lawrence
and Champlain Valleys.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Thursday Night: MVFR and IFR. Likely RA, Likely SN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Taber/Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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