634
FXUS61 KBTV 121332
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
832 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 825 AM EST Thursday...
Just a minor update to the forecast this morning to show snow
showers lingering across the region into the afternoon. Any
additional snowfall accumulations are expected to be light,
generally just a dusting to a few tenths of an inch.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 151 AM EST Thursday...
1. Snow showers to taper off later today with drier weather
expected through the end of the week
2. A clipper will bring snow showers back to the region late
Friday into Saturday
3. Modest warming trend expected next week with periods of rain
and/or snow possible
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 151 AM EST Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Decent low level convergence has allowed for snow showers
to linger across Vermont and northern New York this morning.
Froude numbers remain show strongly blocked flow which has
helped maintain snow showers across the Champlain Valley
overnight. High-res models show flow gradually becoming
unblocked through the early morning hours which will coincide
with decreasing moisture within the snow growth zone. The
combination of these two features will lead to an abrupt end to
the snow showers by mid to late morning. In the meantime, it`s
not out of the question that some locations could see another
0.5 to 1 inch of snowfall but most places will likely only see a
dusting. As these snow showers taper off, winds will become
increasingly gusty through the morning hours with gusts between
20 to 25 mph likely across much of the region. These winds will
diminish tonight with dry weather expected to continue through
the daylight hours on Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A weakening upper level low and associated surface
reflection (in this case a clipper) will move across southern
Quebec and fizzle out north of the International Border. This
will help drive some snow showers, which will be primarily
focused across the western slopes of the Green and Adirondack
Mountains. Model sounding show rather lackluster lift given the
lack of convergence and frontogenesis as the feature falls apart
north of the border and will rely on orographic forcing to help
squeeze out what little moisture will be available. That being
said, it seems like a fair chance that many locations will at
least see some light snow but any noticeable accumulations are
likely mainly above 1000-1500 ft. These showers are expected to
taper off through the day on Saturday with high pressure
expected overhead on Sunday.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The upper level pattern will begin to flatten out as we
blocking over the North Atlantic breaks down with more zonal flow vs
meridional flow expected. However, before this happens, one last
shortwave trough on the western periphery of the upper level trough
is expected to bring a round of snow showers to the region late
Sunday into Monday. It doesn`t look like anything too crazy, with
early estimates of 1-3 inches across the North Country. Thereafter,
we will finally see the upper level ridge across the central US
spread eastward which will allow us to advect in some above normal
temperatures to the region. It looks like we will finally see a
period of above freezing temperatures during the afternoon hours
each day with highs in the mid 30s to possibly mid 40s in some
valley locations. A complex frontal system is expected to arrive
midweek and has the potential to bring rain, freezing rain, and snow
to the region. There are a lot of discrepancies amongst
deterministic and ensembles models at this point given complicated
thermal profiles but it will be something worth monitoring as we
head into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Conditions have improved slightly over the
past 6 hours with a combination of MVFR and VFR conditions
across the region. Snow showers are tapering off from north to
south and a trend from MVFR to VFR conditions is expected at
most terminals. KSLK and possibly KEFK could have an extended
run at MVFR ceilings as moisture may be trapped within an
inversion layer leading to ceilings in the 1200 to 2500 range
for much of the day before going VFR later this afternoon. Winds
have begun to ramp up slightly as snow tapers off with winds
between 10 and 20 knots common through the daylight hours and
going light overnight.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Washingtons Birthday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible.
Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 206 AM EST Wednesday...
In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32
degrees was January 22nd. The next time we are forecasting
temperatures rising above 32 in Burlington is this Saturday,
February 14th. If that forecast holds, that would be 22 days in
a row below freezing. Sub-freezing temperature streaks this
long are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening
January-February 2015.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Clay
AVIATION...Clay
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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