653
FXUS61 KBTV 301825
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
225 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 224 PM EDT Thursday...
No major changes. Confidence in frost development in the Champlain
Valley has lowered for Friday night.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 224 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Cool and unsettled conditions will follow a cold front
heading into the weekend, with chances for frost.
2. Unsettled weather expected much of next week with multiple
chances for precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 224 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front currently over the Champlain Valley will
continue to slowly push east this afternoon with some light shower
chances through this evening, before tapering off by early tonight.
A few light showers may pass through extreme southern St. Lawrence
County as a weak subtle shortwave riding behind the cold front
shifts south. Overall rainfall today will be light with only a few
extra hundreths to near a tenth in the Northeast Kingdom by this
evening. Cyclonic flow associated with a overarching upper level low
behind the frontal system will keep some slight chances for showers
Friday, mainly in the St. Lawrence Valley as our flow pattern
becomes northwesterly, and cooling air aloft, drives steepening
lapse rates leading to some upslope rain chances.
Temperatures will fall to near freezing tonight for areas outside
the Champlain Valley and Upper Valley in Windsor County, where lows
will be in the mid to upper 30s to near 40. While the climatological
growing season has not started for the entire region yet, anyone
with sensitive plants or agricultural interests getting a head
start, will need to monitor the forecast for frost/freeze
conditions. Highs will remain on the cooler side for Friday with
values in the low to mid 50s.
CAMs have begun to denote a weak shortwave passage Friday night
which will increase cloud cover and some chances for light valley
rain and mountain snow. Total precipitation amounts will only be a
few hundreths as this will be a weak and fast moving system.
Temperatures will be flirting with frost criteria in the Champlain
Valley, however, given the cloud cover, and possible shower
activity, confidence and overall chances for reaching frost
conditions have decreased Friday night. However, it should be noted
that after May 1 (the Champlain Valley climatological start to the
growing season), should overnight temperatures near 32-36F,
frost/freeze headlines may be needed as we begin the frost/freeze
program here at BTV. Temperatures for the rest of the weekend will
be about 5-10 degrees below normal with daytime highs in the upper
40s to low 50s, and overnight lows near freezing to the mid 30s.
Better chances for any CPV frost will be on Saturday night, with
similar temperatures to Friday night, but with a lack of
precipitation.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Unsettled weather is expected heading into next week as
the region remains under fast, progressive flow aloft. Several
rounds of light showers will be possible as weak disturbances pass
through, but the exact location and timing of any showers will be
difficult to pinpoint. A more robust frontal system looks to pass
through the region towards the middle of the week as the pattern
becomes more amplified, which would likely bring more widespread and
significant precipitation to the region, but there is still some
uncertainty regarding the evolution of the system at this point.
Temperatures look to be fairly seasonable for next week, with high
temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s and overnight lows in the 30s
and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Variable flight conditions continue across the
region this afternoon, ranging from VFR to IFR, as showers continue
to work their way across the region. As the afternoon progresses,
ceilings will gradually lift, although MVFR is expected to linger
until after 00Z with terminals improving towards VFR between 06Z and
12Z. Winds will generally be light throughout the TAF period, 10
knots or less, and will continue to become more west/northwesterly
this afternoon and remain that way for much of the forecast period.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
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