837
FXUS61 KBTV 162338
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
738 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 251 PM EDT Thursday...
No significant changes with this forecast. We are still anticipating
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening
hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will possible, mainly
along/south of a Newcomb, NY to Middlebury to Fairlee, VT line.
Gusty winds and hail will be the primary threats.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 251 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage late
this afternoon and continue into the evening. Some storms may be
strong to severe, mainly over southern Vermont. Quieter weather
follows for Friday and Friday night.
2. Warm and breezy weather on Saturday will give way to much
cooler and rainy conditions on Sunday. Brief mountain snow will be
possible as temperatures drop well below normal by Sunday night.
3. Cooler temperatures and drier weather expected next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 251 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: We are watching thunderstorms bubble up
along/south of Lake Ontario this afternoon. This activity should
continue to develop over the next couple of hours, quickly
moving east/northeast. The warm front has lifted north and now
lies south of the international border. Temperatures in the
low/mid 70s combined with dewpoints in the low 60s have allowed
SB CAPE values of 1000+ J/kg over the southern Adirondacks into
southern VT. Meanwhile, strong southwest flow aloft is
contributing to 40-50 kt of 0-6km bulk shear. With this in mind,
we still anticipate storms to develop near Lake Ontario
(perhaps along a lake breeze) and propagate eastward. The hi-res
CAM guidance continues to be fairly persistent showing isolated
to perhaps scattered thunderstorms making it into
central/southern VT, with more widespread showers with embedded
thunder along and north of the warm front. Given the above
parameters, a few mini supercells will be possible, capable of
producing strong winds, hail, and briefly heavy rainfall. Storm
motions will be fast, so flash flooding is not anticipated,
outside of perhaps some urban, poor-drainage flooding if a storm
happens to move directly over one of our more urban areas (ie
Rutland, Barre, Burlington). A weak tornado can`t be ruled out,
but chances are very low and not the main concern, by far. Areas
in far southern Essex County, NY and southern Addison/Orange
Counties southward have the best chances of seeing any strong to
severe thunderstorms, with timing roughly 4 to 8 pm. See the
latest Mesoscale Discussion from SPC for additional details.
Please stay tuned for any watches or warnings, especially if you
have outdoor plans. Storms should wane after 8 pm, though
showers will likely linger through midnight or so.
Ridging builds in on Friday as the upper trough exits to the
east. A few showers can`t be ruled out, especially over
central/southern VT, but overall expect it`ll be a dry day with
skies becoming partly to mostly sunny. Highs will be in the 60s
to near 70F, followed by overnight lows in the 40s Friday night.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Low pressure will slide by well to our north Saturday
and Saturday night, dragging a cold front along in its wake.
South/southwest flow will increase ahead of the front, allowing
temperatures to warm into the 60s and 70s. Winds may have just
enough easterly component across eastern VT that could keep areas
east of the Greens from achieving full warming potential, perhaps
just in the low to mid 60s. Still, expect it should be a fairly
pleasant day. Winds will become breezy due to a 50+kt 850mb jet
moving overhead, especially in the St Lawrence and northern
Champlain Valleys where gusts of 25-35 mph will be possible.
The cold front approaches from the west late in the day and then
crosses the forecast area Saturday night into early Sunday. As such,
expect we`ll have yet another period of non-diurnal temperatures,
with temperatures rising or holding steady overnight, then falling
or holding steady on Sunday under strong cold air advection.
Widespread showers will likewise spread from west to east
along/ahead of the front, with the bulk occurring overnight Saturday
night and through Sunday morning. Moisture will be ample ahead of
the front with PWATs approaching 1.50 inch, or near/above the 99th
percentile. This So while instability will be lacking to poor
frontal passage timing and a warm layer around 850mb, still expect
there could be some briefly heavy rain as the front moves through.
Much drier air will follow the front, ending the bulk of the showers
by early Sunday afternoon. However, some isolated to scattered
activity may linger into the evening hours as a secondary front
crosses the region. As mentioned above, expect temperatures to be
much colder than the previous day (topping out in the 40s and 50s),
and likely dropping in the afternoon, especially on the higher
summits. Therefore, any lingering showers could mix with and/or
change over to snow by late in the day, though any daytime
accumulation would be limited to 2500 ft or higher. Total rainfall
will range from around 0.50 inch to around 1 inch in most areas.
Winds will become blustery out of the W/NW, only adding to the
chilly, raw feel of the day.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Following the passage of a cold front, temperatures are
expected to plummet for the start of the upcoming work week. By
Monday morning, temperatures are expected to fall below freezing
across all of Vermont and northern New York with temperatures only
rebounding into the mid 30s to lower 40s Monday afternoon. It`ll be
a start contrast compared to the above normal temperatures that we
are currently experiencing. Temperatures are expected to slowly
moderate throughout the week with temperatures warming back into the
low to mid 50s by Thursday while lows remain within a few degrees
plus or minus of freezing each morning.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...A batch of showers, and a thunderstorm
south of KSLK, are shifting east across the region. Any thunder
will be most likely at KRUT and KMPV this evening through 03z.
Visibilities in any thunderstorm or downpour could fall to
1.5-2.5 SM, but largely remaining at or above 4 SM for most
locations. Behind rain, ceilings are expected to begin lowering,
and persistence suggests fog is likely again tonight.
Probabilistic data suggests introducing IFR ceilings or
visibilities in TEMPOs after 03z, and then more likely from
06z-13z. After that point, sunshine and lower humidities will
lift the cloud layer towards 1500-3000 ft agl, and then finally
VFR between 15z-18z. Winds will be variable or briefly gusting
to 25-30 mph in convection for the next few hours. Behind
precipitation, winds will shift northwest to north at 5 to 10
knots, with a few gusts possible at KBTV to 15 knots.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Clay/Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes
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