759
FXUS61 KBTV 161904
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
204 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 130 PM EST Friday...Issued a winter weather advisory for
Rutland County for 2 to 6 inches of snow tonight into Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 130 PM EST Friday...

1. A weak system will bring light snow to the region late
tonight into Saturday. Snow amounts in excess of four inches are
expected in southern Vermont.

2. A couple rounds of heavy snow showers are possible Monday
into Tuesday as colder air enters the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 130 PM EST Friday...

.KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak low pressure system will pass across the
region late tonight into tomorrow, bringing chances for
precipitation and additional snowfall to the region, as well as
slightly warmer temperatures with some warm air advection. A
warm front will lift across the region overnight into Saturday
morning, bringing widespread light snowfall to the area. Maximum
temperatures on Saturday range from upper 20s to mid 30s.
Highest snowfall totals will be across southern Vermont, where
there area winter weather advisories issued for parts of the
area.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: A couple rounds of heavy snow showers are possible
Monday into Tuesday as colder air enters the region. As a
longwave trough slowly builds east Monday and Tuesday, a couple
fronts push their way into the region. Heavy convective snow
showers are possible, particularly across St. Lawrence and
Franklin counties in NY where there will be lake enhancement.
The most defined front looks to pass through Monday into Monday
night. There, CAPE between 50 and 100 J looks possible with
somewhat favorable FGEN. However, there will not be strong
convergence or a strong surface wind shift behind the front.
Overall, the potential for snow squalls needs to be watched but
it does not appear to be a strong case. Behind the front,
temperatures will drop fast and there will be strong winds.
Apparent temperatures currently look to range in the -5 to -15
range for most areas from Monday night through Tuesday night.
While it will feel quite cold, it is nothing atypical and right
now it does not look to reach advisory criteria, though there is
still a possibility of needing advisories outside the broad
valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions should prevail at all
terminals through the rest of the day. Light snow showers move
through the region late this evening through the day tomorrow.
RUT should see prevailing snow for awhile, while there will be
on and off snow showers for the rest of the terminals. However,
BTV and PBG will likely only see a few snow showers. The snow
will lower visibilities to MVFR and occasionally IFR. Ceilings
will be VFR through most of the night, before they gradually
fall late in the night and into the day tomorrow. Ceilings will
likely reach MVFR at most places by tomorrow afternoon. Winds
will trend toward being light and variable this evening, before
they become southerly to southwesterly tonight and into the day
tomorrow. Gusts in the 10-20 KT range are expected.


Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     VTZ011-019.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Neiles
AVIATION...Myskowski
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV