393
FXUS61 KBTV 072328
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
628 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 206 PM EST Saturday...
There have been no significant changes to the previous forecast.
Temperatures and winds remain on track.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 206 PM EST Saturday...
1. Dangerous cold with wind chills of 20 to 40 below zero
expected through Sunday Night.
2. A potential clipper low pressure system is possible Tuesday
into Tuesday Night with potentially accumulating light snow.
3. No significant or impactful weather expected Tuesday night
through next weekend with temperatures trending toward mid-February
normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 206 PM EST Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dangerous cold will continue today as northwest
winds associated with an approaching ridge slides east behind
the arctic cold front from this morning. Much of the area is
already experiencing below zero wind chills as wind gusts
increase to 20 to 30 mph, with all of northern New York already
below zero for actual air temperatures. An Extreme Cold Warning
remains in effect for the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley in
New York until 1 PM Sunday for wind chills between -20F and
-40F, with a Cold Advisory for the rest of the region across the
Champlain Valley and northern and central Vermont from 6 PM
tonight through 1 PM Sunday for wind chills between -20F and
-30F. If you must be outdoors, please make sure to dress for
very cold conditions. Frostbite can start to affect exposed skin
in as little as 10 minutes in these sorts of wind chill ranges,
so hats, gloves/mittens, and warm layers for your core will be
crucial.Strong caa from the northwest will continue to steepen
lapse rates through this evening into tonight resulting in good
vertical mixing and continue gusty conditions, primarily across
the Adirondacks, the Champlain Valley, and along the spine of
the Greens. Temperatures tonight will continue to fall overnight
with air temperatures bottoming out in the minus teens across
northern New York, and the minus single digits in Vermont, with
minus teens in the higher terrain. The coldest wind chills will
occur close to sunrise Sunday when radiative cooling peaks with
wind chills near -20F to -25F in Vermont, and near -30F to -40F
in northern New York and the spine of the Greens. Anyone with
outdoor plans should consider altering and/or delaying outdoor
activities this weekend.
Winds will weaken slightly for the day Sunday, but only down to
10 to 20 mph, which will keep wind chills below zero for the
entire day. Wind chills will slightly "improve" to -5F to -15F
during Sunday afternoon, but will return to dangerous cold
levels Sunday night. While the Extreme Cold Warning and Cold
Advisory expire tomorrow early afternoon, additional Cold
Advisories may be needed for Sunday night. Northwest winds will
continue Sunday night, but a steep inversion near 1000-1500ft
agl may develop overnight, which would lead to colder valley
floors as compared to mountain summits. Sunday night lows may
be near -5F to -15F in the valleys, but only 0F to -5F above
1500ft agl. Adding to the complex temperature forecast, winds
will slacken across the valleys, and become limited to the
higher terrain (15 to 25 mph), as well as some models suggesting
lingering lower clouds, especially over the high terrain. If
the inversion were to develop, it would likely trap low clouds
across the higher terrain, reducing the radiative cooling
processes, but a fresh snowpack and sinking air from the higher
terrain could be enough to counteract the inversion. Regardless,
Sunday night into Monday will remain cold with high pressure
building, resulting in wind chills returning to near -20F to
-25F, with additional Cold Advisories possibly needed.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A potential clipper like low pressure system will
move through the area Tuesday into Tuesday night with chances
for accumulating light snow. The system will be moving into a
very dry air mass left behind by the high responsible for our
cold this weekend, which will limit the overall snow potential.
That being said, there will be some marginal frontogenesis,
particularly over the Champlain Valley with some waa snow
showers. The DGZ base in the current GFS soundings is notably
high up to 8000ft, however, it is only a few thousand feet thick
which would lead to more needle-like snow, and smaller flakes.
Additionally, the forcing rapidly shifts east Tuesday night,
along with any associated moisture. NBM probabilistic guidance
denotes a 40-60% chance for most of the region of seeing 2
inches of snow or more, but only up to a 20% chance of 4 inches
or more, mainly in the upslope regions of the northern Greens.
The snow becomes more orographically driven along the upslope
regions of the northern Greens by late Tuesday night.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Medium range deterministic, ensemble and AI guidance is
coming into better agreement with the overall synoptic pattern for
mid-week through next weekend featuring the continuation of a broad
upper trough over the Northeast and ridging over the central CONUS
through Friday, with the ridge shifting over the east coast on the
weekend. Upslope snow showers across the central/northern
Greens/Dacks will likely linger Wednesday into Thursday morning
before surface high pressure builds in and dominates the
regions weather through the end of the forecast period on
Saturday with dry conditions expected. Temperatures finally look
to trend towards mid- February normals with highs generally
mid-20s to low-30s and lows in the low/mid teens above zero.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Strong cold air advection from the
northwest will continue to steepen lapse rates through this
evening into tonight, resulting in good vertical mixing and
continued breezy conditions, primarily across the Adirondacks,
the Champlain Valley, and along the spine of the Greens.
Winds are expected to be strongest over the next six hours out
of the northwest across Vermont and out of the west to west-
southwest across northern New York. Most sites are reporting
sustained winds 3-10 knots with some gusts at KMPV and KRUT 15
to 20 knots, and other sites could see winds 10-15 knots over
the next few hours. After about 06Z-08Z Sunday, we`ll see high
pressure nose into the region from the Midwest, but most sites
stay mixed for much of the night. This should result in winds
staying mostly below 10 knots for the remainder of the night and
into the Sunday morning daylight hours. Then, around 15Z-18Z
Sunday, daytime mixing will help increase winds again, with
highest probability of northwesterly gusts 15-20 knots at KRUT.
Low FROUDE numbers and snow showers will likely result in a mix
of VFR and MVFR conditions over the next 3 to 6 hours,
depending on the site. Generally, ceilings will be on the
increase, though a scattered layer of cloud around 2000-3000
feet above ground level may cause periodic drops in flight
category across northern New York and Vermont. KSLK is most
likely to hold onto sustained low ceilings longest with low
clouds persisting there until around 14Z-16Z Sunday.
Visibilities should remain 4+ miles at any site, but the odd
heavier snow shower could produce brief IFR vis during the early
portion of the night tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if
you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for VTZ001>011-
016>021.
NY...Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ026-027-
029>031-034-087.
Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Lahiff
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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