909
FXUS61 KBTV 301830
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
230 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 229 PM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast this
afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 229 PM EDT Saturday...
1. Unseasonably cool temperatures continue through the weekend,
with areas of patchy frost possible tonight.
2. Another round of showers is expected tomorrow afternoon
into the evening, with more scattered showers possible on Monday.
3. A warming trend is expected for the latter half of next
week, with temperatures warming into the 80s by Friday,
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 229 PM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: After a rainy start to the day, drier conditions and
partly sunny skies prevail across the region this afternoon. Despite
the sunshine, high temperatures will only reach the upper 50s and
lower 60s, nearly 10 degrees or so below climatological normals for
the end of May. This unseasonably cool airmass will allow for cold
overnight lows, with temperatures dipping into the 30s and 40s
areawide. Although the night will start out relatively clear, cloud
cover moving into the region overnight will help limit the overall
frost potential, but areas of patchy frost will be possible,
especially in portions of the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont. In
addition to the frost, some fog development may be possible as well
given the recent rainfall. Temperatures tomorrow look to be a few
degrees warmer, with highs generally in the 60s areawide.
KEY MESSAGE 2: After a brief break in the precipitation, another
shortwave is expected to move through the region later in the day
tomorrow, bringing another round of showers. Compared to the most
recent precipitation, lighter rainfall amounts are expected with
most locations receiving anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch
to a quarter of an inch of liquid. As we head into the beginning of
the week, additional shower chances will be possible throughout the
day on Monday, driven by steep lapse rates and diurnal heating
rather than a clear shortwave or boundary. Any precipitation with
these showers would be rather light given the scattered nature.
Temperatures will continue to be seasonable cool on Monday as well
with possible showers and clouds, with highs once again in the 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Ridging will take hold for a good part of late next
week, keeping us warm and dry. Low pressure will develop off the
Carolina coast Wednesday and trek northeastward through the end of
the week. At this time, any impacts from this system will remain
well to our southeast as the track will stay offshore. However,
precipitation chances will increase later Friday into the weekend as
yet another upper trough will swing down across eastern Canada and
into northern New England. Should this pattern hold, it would likely
be accompanied by a cold frontal passage and showers/possible
thunderstorms. Until then though, mild and dry weather is expected
under the aforementioned high pressure. Highs on Wednesday will be
in the 70s areawide, then warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s by
Friday. Luckily dewpoints look to remain relatively comfortable in
the 40s and 50s, so humidity won`t be too oppressive.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
terminals through the TAF period. SCT-BKN clouds AOA 3500 ft will
dissipate with the sunset this evening, leaving behind SKC for at
least a few hours overnight. Mid/high clouds will increase from
north to south after 08z Sun ahead of our next system, an upper
shortwave trough. These increasing clouds should limit fog formation
early Sunday morning, although it can`t be totally ruled out. If
clouds hold off longer than anticipated, the most likely spots to
see any fog would be KMSS and KSLK, perhaps KMPV, with IFR possible
should fog actually form. Otherwise, just expect lowering ceilings
through 18z Sun. Scattered showers will develop late in the TAF
period, but coverage is not enough to include mention in the TAFs at
this point. Gusty N winds 18-25 kt this afternoon will become light
and variable/calm by 02z this evening. Winds should turn toward the
W/NW 5-10 kt after 13z Sun.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 229 PM EDT Saturday...
The Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect Lake Champlain with breezy
northerly flow continuing this afternoon. Winds are expected to
diminish over the next few hours, with winds generally 10 knots or
less by this evening.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
MARINE...Kremer
|
