150
FXUS61 KBTV 192321
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
721 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 334 PM EDT Thursday...

A winter weather advisory has been issued for parts of northern New
York and Vermont for accumulating wet snow Friday into Friday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 334 PM EDT Thursday...

1. A clipper system will bring up to 2 to 5 inches of snow to
parts of our region Friday into Friday night.

2. A late season snowstorm is becoming more likely Sunday into
Sunday night, which could impact the Monday morning commute. A heavy
and wet snowfall is possible in portions of the region.

3. Active, winter-like weather will continue through next week,
including snow shower chances midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 334 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Another clipper system will bring some wet snow to the
region Friday into Friday night. This system has good moisture and
decent dynamics, which will support some heavy wet snow at times.
Storm total QPF will be around a quarter of an inch along the
international border up to half an inch in parts of the Adirondacks
and central Greens. The temperatures are very tricky with this
system. Have relied on hourly temperatures using higher resolution
model guidance to get temperatures that will support snowfall rather
than a change to rain, though some areas will have a change over to
rain. Higher elevations will do the best with this system and some
spots will have around 6 inches of wet snow. A shift in the track of
this storm could also change the temperatures profiles and amounts
of snow expected. Currently looks like the low will track just south
of our area which would keep us cold enough for mostly snow. Have
issued a winter weather advisory for areas expected to have about 4
inches of snow or more.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence has increased in an impactful snowfall late
Sunday into early Monday, as another model cycle shows moderate to
heavy precipitation north of a low pressure area tracking eastward
from central Pennsylvania to near the southern New England coast.
Over 90% of ensemble members fall into clusters/scenarios that show
a substantial snowfall for our region with similar upper level
patterns, although there are some north-south differences. Will
favor the AI-GFS footprint, which is similar to the physical model
and the multi-model cluster with the largest number of members, with
a swath of heaviest precipitation over south central Vermont and
Adirondacks. That being said, typically snow ratios can compensate
for lower QPF farther north of the heaviest precipitation, so the
current, very wide swath of 10-30% chance of warning level snowfall
over the region with the exception of the St. Lawrence Valley looks
reasonable. There is a large spread in QPF, so snowfall amounts
remain rather uncertain. Mean liquid precipitation in the 0.35" to
0.55" range, with higher amounts south and lower north, point to at
the very least Winter Weather Advisory potential.

Right now we show onset of snow being likely Sunday morning, but
think the more significant, heavier snowfall could be Sunday night.
In fact, blended guidance shows the greatest 24 hour snowfall
occurring from 8 PM Sunday through 8 PM Monday, with totals in the 3
to 7 inch range. This discrepancy seems to be tied to precipitation
type, as snow becomes more of a certainty by Monday compared to
Sunday; some low tracks are a bit farther north and lead to a rain
or wintry mix scenario for mainly southern portions of the region
before the low pressure area passes to the east and we see colder
air infiltrate from the northwest and potential upslope snow
commences. Within a relatively narrow zone, snow load could be
potentially significant with a heavy liquid amounts approaching 1"
in the form of wet snow. At this time, the potential is low but
bears watching. Otherwise, impacts would be mainly a travel concern,
especially if heavier precipitation occurs early Monday when more
traffic is present as opposed to Sunday afternoon/night.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Due to a persistent and strong ridge in the southwestern
US, troughiness and cooler than normal temperatures will continue
through next Thursday. The next chance of substantial precipitation
following the Sunday-Monday snow would be on Wednesday associated
with a relatively weak cold front, favoring some upslope snow
showers. Relatively high uncertainty exists beyond that event. A
somewhat more potent low pressure system and associated mixed
precipitation types are possible as early as Thursday. A broad range
of storm tracks in model guidance leads to a wait and see approach
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Currently VFR CIGS and VIS at all sites
except MVFR CIGS at SLK with 9SM in light snow. Radar imagery
and surface observations indicate light snow with VIS generally
between 4-6SM along a weakening surface cold front. Used some
PROB30 and TEMPO groups for a few hours to indicate the
potential for MVFR conditions with frontal passage with winds
shifting to northwest and becoming light after midnight. A band
of moderate snow with IFR/LIFR conditions is expected to impact
our TAF sites between 16Z and 22Z on Friday. Quickly lowering
visibilities and ceilings are expected with this snow, with some
mix with rain in the valley sites. As precip exits IFR CIGS will
linger thru 00z Saturday with northwest upslope winds of 4 to 8
knots.

Outlook...

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SN, Chance
FZRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. Likely SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA, Likely
SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN.
Monday: MVFR. Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for
     VTZ003-004-006>008-016>018.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV