380
FXUS61 KBTV 051848
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
248 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 247 PM EDT Tuesday...
The low severe threat has decreased further.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 247 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. Gusty winds continue through this afternoon.
2. Showers arrive this afternoon and evening, followed by a
rainy Wednesday.
3. Unsettled weather with cooler temperatures this weekend into
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 247 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A low level jet will continue to move overhead this
afternoon, bringing wind gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range for most
areas. However, localized gusts up to 50 mph are possible, with the
strongest winds expected in the St. Lawrence Valley and far northern
Adirondacks. The limiting factor for the strong winds will be a
broken line of showers moving in from the northwest. Overall, the
Wind Advisory remains in effect with no changes. Once the rain
arrives, the limited mixing will cause synoptic winds to decrease.
Despite the strong winds, relative humidity values around and above
40 percent will prevent significant fire weather concerns.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front pushes into the region this afternoon and
evening, bringing a line of showers. The showers have entered the
St. Lawrence Valley and will push southeastward as the afternoon
progresses. Enough heating has occurred ahead of it that modest
instability has developed. The SPC Mesoanalysis indicated that about
500 J of CAPE has developed, with increases up to around 750 J
possible by evening. The main limiting factor for storm development
will be moisture, with surface dew points continuing to stay in the
upper 40s to low 50s ahead of the rain. While they should come up a
few degrees this afternoon, the dry air will remain at the time of
the precipitation arrival. Other limiting factors will be increasing
cloud cover, the lack of a well defined boundary during the day and
slight height rises. While there is abundant deep layer shear, due
to the limited instability, probabilities of strong to severe storms
developing remain modest and are decreasing. However, a few rumbles
of thunder are expected. The strong shear may act more to blow off
the top of the storms and weaken them than help organize them due to
the modest instability. Overall, there is not much change in
thinking from yesterday and it looks to be a lower end marginal
case. Widespread showers should occur tonight as the front slows
down across the region, but by that point, the precipitation should
be mostly stratiform and synoptically forced. Widespread stratiform
rainfall will occur for most of the day Wednesday as a low develops
along the front, making it a complete washout for most areas. 1-2
inches are expected in total. Due to the light stratiform rates,
flooding is not expected, though river rises will occur.
Temperatures will be in the 40s for most areas, though southeastern
Vermont should see 60s as they will be south of the precip and
front. An isothermal profile will prevent much snow in the mountains
despite cool temperatures. Showery and cool conditions will occur
through the end of the week.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Several chances for showers are expected from Friday
night through Tuesday. General troughiness will remain over the
northeastern CONUS, leading to clouds and chances for precipitation.
As multiple shortwaves round the base of the upper level trough and
cross our forecast area, we can expect off and on periods of rain
over the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will
continue to be cooler than normal, but will be warm enough to
support rain as the dominant precipitation type in all but the
highest elevations. Overnight low temperatures may support some
frost development this weekend (depending on evolution of cloud
cover and overnight winds), especially Saturday morning in the
northern Adirondacks and eastern Vermont. However, the Champlain
Valley is the only area within our forecast area of responsibility
that has started the "growing season" as per our frost-freeze
program, and conditions there will remain warm enough to preclude a
frost threat. Therefore headlines are not anticipated, but keep an
extra eye on the late week/weekend forecast if you have sensitive
vegetation.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...The greatest aviation concerns are
gusty winds and potential for thunderstorms this afternoon.
Southerly winds continue to gust between 20 and 35 kts,
occasionally 40 kts at MSS. Areas of low level wind shear
continue to be possible this afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected through about 22z this afternoon.
Localized strong and gusty outflow winds are possible, along
with areas of enhanced turbulence and shear, especially near any
convection. Visibilities could drop into the 2-4SM briefly in
the heavier convection, while ceilings would be in the MVFR
range. Additional rain develops toward 06z with lowering
ceilings to MVFR conditions by sunrise on Wed, along with winds
shifting to the northwest.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly winds 10 to 15 knots are slowly increasing this
morning and should be 15 to 25 knots by sunrise with a few
higher gusts possible this morning, before subsiding back into
the 10 to 20 knot range by this afternoon. Wave 1 to 2 feet
build 2 to 4 feet this morning, before decreasing by sunset this
evening.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026>028-030-
031-034-087.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Myskowski
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...NWS BTV
|
