000
FXUS61 KBTV 251847
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
247 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad region of high pressure will set up across eastern Canada
and the northeastern United States. Seasonable and dry weather
conditions will prevail for the next week as high pressure remains
anchored across the region. Nighttime fog across the river valleys
is likely each night this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 246 PM EDT Monday...Surface high pressure is building. It will
remain anchored over the area for the next week, and there won`t be
much to write about. East or southeast flow will provide a steady
flow of maritime air, with seasonable weather (mid 60s to low 70s by
day, 40s at night) and enough low-level moisture for fog development
alongside ideal radiational cooling conditions. We`re in the midst
of our peak time for nocturnal fog, and that should become the
staple for the next week. Will note that there is still some smoke,
mainly aloft, which will linger into Tuesday. But as the surface
high becomes more established, east-southeast flow will push smoke
out of the area. It looks like conditions on Tuesday night will be
cold enough to talk frost/freeze in the Adirondacks and perhaps
Essex County Vermont, with some 31-36 degree temperature forecasts
in there at present.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 246 PM EDT Monday...A very quiet mid to late week period is
expected across the North Country and Vermont as cool Canadian high
pressure will dominate over the region. No precipitation and
seasonal temperatures will be the daily forecast, with highs normal
to slight above in the upper 60s to low 70s. The coldest night will
be Wednesday night with the high directly overhead or just east
where lows will be widespread in the 40s to 30s in the Adirondacks
where some frost is possible. Otherwise, lows will generally range
from the mid 40s to low 50s for Thursday and Friday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 246 PM EDT Monday...Heading into the weekend, dry conditions
will generally continue as the latest deterministic and ensemble
guidance only briefly break down the upper ridge before intensifying
it again. There still appears to be some sort of coastal system that
develops during the brief ridge breakdown, but all signs point to
this remaining well south of our region. Something to keep an eye on
as it`s still a good 6-7 days out. Otherwise, temps looks to be
slightly above normal with highs in the low/mid 70s and lows mid 40s
to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Conditions are currently VFR with a few
pockets of 3500-7000 ft agl stratocumulus clouds. Winds range
from northwest to northeast, with high spread in speeds between
terminals. KMPV even remains calm, but most are between 7 to 12
knots, except 17 knots at KMSS. A few gusts between 15 and 20
knots, mainly at KRUT and KMSS will be possible through about
22z when winds will gradually trend light and variable. As skies
clear tonight, another round of nocturnal fog should develop in
favored locations like KMPV, KEFK, and KSLK. The potential
exists for KMSS as well, but intervals of 1/2SM to 4SM fog is
likely between about 05z and 13z. After 13z, northeast winds at
4 to 7 knots return and fog should dissipate.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Haynes