524
FXUS61 KBTV 290539
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
139 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extended the Red Flag Warning until midnight for the Champlain
Valley fire weather zones.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. Critical fire weather conditions continue until midnight for
portions of the Champlain Valley.
2. A period of widespread rainfall is expected Wednesday
evening into Thursday, along with cooler temperatures, bringing
fire weather concerns to an end.
3. Unsettled and cooler conditions are expected to linger
through the weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 700 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Given the wildfire near Middlebury, VT has grown
from just a few acres to near 37 acres per local reports and the
potential for increasing winds associated with a nocturnal low
level jet, I have extended the Red Flag Warning until midnight
for the Champlain Valley fire weather zones. Current conditions
show humidities in the 23% to 30% as recovery has been slow
with good mixing here in the Champlain Valley as temperatures
hold near 70F. Sounding data indicates a strengthening low level
inversion this evening, but increasing southerly winds at the
top of the mixed layer between 25 and 35 knots. The strongest
wind gust potential will be between 9 PM and Midnight, where
localized gusts 25 to 30 mph will be possible, especially away
from the cooler Lake Champlain waters, which includes the
Middlebury area. Some localized higher gusts are possible along
the western slopes of the Green Mountains in favorable southeast
downslope areas too thru this evening. Conditions should
improve after midnight as humidities continue to increase and
winds slacken. Otherwise, no other changes made to the fcst
attm.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain moves into the St Lawrence Valley and
Adirondacks Wednesday afternoon, and into Vermont Wednesday
evening. It will taper off from west to east Thursday afternoon
into evening. Can`t rule out a few storms especially in southern
portions of the area, but threat is very limited. Rain however
looks moderate to locally heavy at times, and totals areawide
will be in the range of 0.75 to 1.25 inches. No flooding is
expected. As the precipitation trails off Thursday into
Thursday night, it could change to snow over the higher summits,
but accumulations look very light.
KEY MESSAGE 3: An upper level trough will remain over our
region from Friday through Monday. This will bring us cooler
than normal temperatures and several chances for light rain or
snow showers. Snow showers will be possible mainly for
elevations above 2000 feet. No significant accumulations, but a
fresh coating of an inch or so of snow from time to time can be
expected. Highs are favored to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s,
and lows in the 30s except 20s at higher elevations. Perhaps a
warmup finally toward Tuesday/Wednesday, but confidence is low.
One thing to note is that the climatological start to the growing
season in the Champlain Valley begins May 1st (this Friday) when we
expect overnight lows to be near Frost Advisory criteria (32-36F)
both Friday night and lesser so Saturday night. Cloud cover may
limit the overall cooling that takes place, but conditions may be
favorable for frost development. We will monitor this in the coming
days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Through 06Z Wednesday... Winds becoming
lighter overnight, but not tapering off entirely. VFR overnight.
MSS likely to developing an MVFR cig around 3K AGL around 05z
tonight, which should persist into 12-18z Wed. SLK could get an
MVFR cig too, but going for just above MVFR cig in TAF starting
09z. Late in the period will have clouds and chances for
precipitation beginning from west to east, 18z at MSS, 21z at
SLK, 05z PBG and BTV.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Definite RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Neiles
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