601
FXUS61 KBTV 241131
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
731 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 242 AM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 242 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. Dry today followed by chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms Thursday into Friday.
2. While heat and humidity will gradually build early next
week, significant heat is not expected during this period.
Isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
each day, especially Sunday and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 242 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather is expected today as surface high
pressure remains over the region, and upper level shortwave will
move away from the area. Next weather system will affect the
area Thursday night into Friday as an upper level shortwave and
frontal system moves across the area. Still some uncertainty
with regards to timing, but at this time looks like the showers
with possible embedded thunderstorms will move through
overnight. Not expecting storms to be strong or severe at this
time, but will monitor for this position.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures continue to look warm but not
particularly hot for the final days of June. Consensus has
grown that surface ridging builds in for Monday providing the
best chance for sunny skies and lack of precipitation that will
help temperatures soar a few degrees warmer than Sunday. The
75th percentile forecast high temperature for BTV is up to 90
degrees, a degree higher than 24 hours ago. Meanwhile Tuesday is
a bit more uncertain (some guidance is cooler but mostly a bit
warmer). The combination of temperature and dew point may lead
to a hotter day than Monday regardless. Have noted statistical
guidance from the ECMWF is mostly a bit cooler than the GFS at
this point throughout this timeframe; it is unclear if this is a
meaningful difference for convective potential, but clearly for
heat indices the high temperature trends are important. The
differences continue to look tied to the position of the large
upper level ridge our west, with most GEFS members showing a
stronger ridge with higher heights over our region and/or
upstream than the ENS members, especially on Monday.
The latest model blend probabilities for thunderstorms is
roughly the same each day Sunday through Tuesday (generally
peaking during the afternoon/evening near 20%). Odds are notably
higher in northern New York on Sunday than on the following
days, possibly due to increasing mid-level warmth and
association convective inhibition building eastward. Broadly
there is increasing potential for stronger thunderstorms with
much greater instability favored on Tuesday (mean SBCAPE in the
1000-1500 J/kg range for most of the region, although with large
spread) compared to previous days as surface temperatures and
especially dew points tick up.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Primarily VFR conditions are expected in
this period. Localized fog, which in the predawn hours was
present at select terminals including RUT, EFK, and SLK, is
dissipating, leaving behind mainly clear skies across the
airspace. Diurnally driven mixing will lead to fairly uniform
gusty winds increasing to near 20 knots out of the northwest,
ramping up especially after 15Z. These winds will then diminish
near or soon after sunset.
Widespread high based clouds are likely to overspread the area
from the west after 00Z, and their increasing thickness may
mitigate any potential fog. Based on how last night played out
and with further drying of soils, no mention of fog was placed
in the TAFs. Despite low probabilities, would not rule out brief
IFR conditions near or at RUT, EFK, and SLK again between 06Z
and 10Z.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Neiles
AVIATION...Kutikoff
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