973
FXUS61 KBTV 101906
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
206 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Wintry mix and rain will turn to more scattered snow showers
today as colder air moves in from the northwest. Unsettled
weather with upslope snow showers will continue through much of
this week, accompanied by seasonally cool temperatures. Winds
could be gusty Tuesday as a system over Maine occludes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 637 AM EST Monday...Confidence has increased in the
potential for meaningful snow amounts across the Champlain
Valley late this afternoon/evening. Hi-res CAMs have shifted the
thermal gradient to the east of Lake Champlain as colder
Canadian drainage air looks to rush south into the area more
readily. As a result precipitation will quickly change from rain
to a brief hour or 2 of wintry mix and then to all snow by this
evening. Precipitation is likely to begin in the Champlain
Valley around 3-4PM with a change to snow by 5PM. The best rates
for any snowfall will generally be between 5-8PM as a
deformation axis sets up. This will have an impact on todays
evening commute, so use caution if traveling this afternoon and
evening. Current snow accumulations range from a dusting to 2.5
inches from south to north from Rutland to the international
Border, with slightly higher amounts possible near the
international border, in places like Enosburg Falls and Jay
Peak.
Previous Discussion...The radar has begun to fill back in with
widespread rain, snow, and some freezing rain in Vermont, and
mainly snow across northern New York. Winds have flipped to the
northwest allowing much colder air to filter in and change over
precipitation in New York from freezing rain to mainly snow. A
full switchover for all of New York is expected by noon.
Additional accumulations will be light, however, as in addition
to the cooler air, drier air is filtering in as well. The Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM this morning due
to the recent ice and snow accumulations. Snow and Ice
accumulations could impact this mornings commute, especially in
the St. Lawrence Valley. The systems moisture corridor will
shift eastward today, focusing primarily in Vermont by this
afternoon. A tight thermal gradient will develop along the
Champlain Valley by this afternoon as the region will sit in the
left exit region of a strengthening jet streak at 250mb. Decent
forcing along a potential deformation axis could lead to a few
hours of decent precipitation rates this afternoon/evening in
the Champlain Valley as precipitation reinvigorates. Depending
where the thermal gradient sets up, areas in the Champlain
Valley could see a quick coating to half an inch of snow or a
light glaze of ice which will impact todays evening commute. Any
remaining rain showers will turn to snow by early evening
across Vermont. As flow turns more northwesterly tonight, snow
showers will become more focused in the upslope regions of the
northern Adirondacks and northern Greens.
Snow showers will continue into Tuesday with accumulations
between 1 to 3 inches, locally higher in the highest ridges and
summits of the northwestern Adirondacks and along and on Mt.
Mansfield and Jay Peak. Jay Peak looks to be the winner of this
upslope event with a current forecast of 4 to 5 inches which
should do well for any skiers. Temperatures will steadily fall
throughout today with the high occurring this morning before
the colder air rushes in this afternoon. Temperatures will fall
from the upper 30s this morning to the teens and low to mid 20s
overnight. With strong caa, and cloud cover, temperatures
Wednesday will not warm much, struggling to reach even freezing
for most locations. With the departing low occluding over Maine,
and coupled with the strengthening 250mb jet, a tightening
pressure gradient will lead to increasing winds on Tuesday.
Winds will gust up to 20 to 30 mph, especially along the
downslope areas of the Adirondacks and eastern Greens. Top of
the boundary layer winds at Saranac Lake on the NAM3K shows 43
kts, so additionally higher winds may be possible with future
updates if trends continue. Winds will peak Tuesday
afternoon/evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Monday...An upper low will depart to the east
over Maine with a continuing tight pressure gradient Tuesday
night into Wednesday. West winds will continue to gust up to 25
to perhaps 30 mph Tuesday night before weakening slightly by
Wednesday. Winds will still be breezy Wednesday with gusts up to
20 mph as surface winds switch to the southwest. Continued
upslope snow showers are likely Tuesday night and should taper
off Wednesday. Snow accumulations up to an inch are possible
Tuesday night in the higher terrain of the northern Adirondacks
and northern Greens. However, as upslope showers taper off,
southwest winds will allow snow from a lake effect band off of
Lake Ontario to lift north into the lower St. Lawrence Valley
and northern Adirondacks. Additional snow accumulations are
possible, with a couple inches downwind of Lake Ontario.
Temperatures will be generally seasonable Wednesday in the upper
30s to low 40s, with overnight lows on Tuesday night in the
20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Monday...Northwesterly mid-upper level flow is
expected to prevail from the Northern Great Lakes region into NY and
northern New England through the extended forecast period, bringing
temperatures near to slightly below seasonal levels for mid-
November. An embedded shortwave trough and favorable upper jet
dynamics bring the best chances for precipitation Wednesday night
into early Thursday. While not significant in terms of QPF, it does
appear that there is potential for light snow accumulations,
especially at elevations above 500 ft or so. Could see snowfall 2-4"
across the higher summits, especially in favorable upslope areas of
the central/nrn Green Mountains and northern Adirondacks. Would
anticipate a slushy coating to 0.5" in the immediate Champlain
Valley Wed night where surface temperatures will hover near to
slightly above freezing. Lows Wednesday night generally in the lower
30s, except upper 20s above 1000ft, with highs Thursday in the upper
30s to lower 40s.
Thereafter, no significant weather is expected through the end of
the week and into next weekend. A few light rain/mountain snow
showers remain possible and have indicated slight chance to chance
(20-40%) PoPs at times to account for possible upslope/orographic
precipitation in continued NW flow. Daily Highs Fri-Sun generally in
the mid-upper 30s, except lower 40s in the upper CT River Valley.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Conditions have taken a more pessimistic
outlook given ongoing IFR CIGs mainly with intermixed MVFR/IFR
VIS in light rain and mist. Additionally, chances for snow have
increased for the Champlain Valley and portions of Vermont
which are reflected in tempo 1/2SM SN FG for BTV/PBG/MPV/EFK
with potential for 1-3 inches primarily with up to 4 inches of
snow accumulation possible. Opted to follow more towards MOS
guidance keeping CIGs lower under westerly blocked flow through
12Z. BTV could see additional IFR snow showers 06-12Z depending
on how much lake enhanced precipitation occurs. Categorical
improvement is likely after 12Z as winds increase aiding in
lifting CIGs while precipitation chances diminish. Still,
looking at slow improvement for some terminals to MVFR/VFR.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Definite SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely
RA, Likely SN.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ002-003-
005-006-016-017.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Boyd
|
