818
FXUS61 KBTV 290629
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
229 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 229 AM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes were made with this forecast issuance. Near
critical fire weather conditions are expected today, followed by
widespread rain tonight and Thursday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 229 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected today,
mainly from the Champlain Valley eastward.
2. Widespread rainfall is expected tonight and Thursday, with
cooler and showery conditions persisting through Friday.
3. Unsettled and cooler conditions are expected to linger
through the weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 229 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Yet another day of near critical fire weather conditions
today, especially from the Champlain Valley eastward. While moisture
will start to increase across much of northern NY this morning ahead
of an incoming frontal system, VT will remain dry, with relative
humidity values falling to around 30 percent this afternoon. Winds
will be a little lighter than yesterday, with gusts generally 25 mph
or less. While these conditions aren`t as extreme as yesterday, our
fire weather partners indicate fuels are very receptive, even
without optimal conditions. Therefore, have issued a Special Weather
Statement for the Champlain Valley and the rest of VT due to these
concerns. Any one with plans to burn outdoors today should first
check with local fire officials before setting any fires as they
could quickly get out of control.
Otherwise, a frontal boundary stretched between two low pressure
centers located to our west will gradually push eastward this
afternoon. Moisture will stream northward ahead of this system,
first into northern NY, where PWATs will approach 1 inch by mid/late
afternoon. Although a few sprinkles will be possible this morning
into the early afternoon, the bulk of the rain will hold off until
closer to evening, mainly after 4 pm or so. The influx of clouds
will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across northern NY.
Further east, clearer skies and less humidity will allow for another
mild day in the mid 60s to low 70s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The aforementioned front and double-barrled low system
will gradually push eastward across our region Wednesday night and
Thursday, bringing a period of steady and very welcome rain. The
rain could be moderate at times, particularly in the St Lawrence
Valley into the western Adirondacks. There could be a little CAPE
there (200 J/kg or less) and HREF probabilities of rainfall rates
exceeding 0.2 in/hr are 20-40% with any convection. Otherwise,
expect just a general light rain for 6-10 hours. The front will exit
to our east by Thursday afternoon, bringing the steadier rain to an
end. However, with the upper low spinning down into eastern
Ontario/western Quebec, showers will continue to be possible through
the rest of the week, particularly during the afternoons as daytime
heating and the cold pool aloft produce just enough instability. All
told, rainfall totals have been reduced just a bit, but still expect
most areas will range from around 0.50 inch to around 1.00 inch,
with locally higher amounts if any convection is able to develop.
Temperatures will also cool quite sharply with this system, with 850
mb temperatures falling below 0C Thursday night and Friday. Highs on
Thursday will only be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and Friday will
likely be a few degrees colder. Overnight lows both Thursday and
Friday nights will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s, so frost could be a
concern. Any lingering showers could well mix with and/or change to
snow later Thursday into Friday morning, mainly above 1500 ft. Any
accumulation would be minimal.
KEY MESSAGE 3: An upper level trough will remain over our region from
Friday night through Tuesday night. This will bring us cooler than
normal temperatures and several chances for light rain or snow
showers. Snow showers will be possible mainly for elevations above
2000 feet. Highs are favored to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and
lows in the 30s.
One thing to note is that the climatological start to the growing
season in the Champlain Valley begins May 1st (this Friday) when we
expect overnight lows to be near Frost Advisory criteria (32-36F)
both Friday night and lesser so Saturday night. Cloud cover may
limit the overall cooling that takes place, but conditions may be
favorable for frost development. We will monitor this in the coming
days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Through 06Z Wednesday... Winds becoming
lighter overnight, but not tapering off entirely. VFR overnight.
MSS likely to developing an MVFR cig around 3K AGL around 05z
tonight, which should persist into 12-18z Wed. SLK could get an
MVFR cig too, but going for just above MVFR cig in TAF starting
09z. Late in the period will have clouds and chances for
precipitation beginning from west to east, 18z at MSS, 21z at
SLK, 05z PBG and BTV.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Definite RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
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