777
FXUS61 KBTV 230653
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
153 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 153 AM EST Monday...
Snowfall amounts have decreased across the region, so the Winter
Weather Advisory has been cancelled.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 153 AM EST Monday...
1. A strong nor`easter will bring snowfall and breezy
conditions to the region, with the greatest snowfall amounts
expected across southern and central Vermont.
2. Cold weather is expected Monday night through Tuesday night.
With the combination of lingering strong northwest gusts, wind
chills of -5 to -15 are possible over northern New York through
Tuesday afternoon.
3. A clipper type system is expected early Wednesday into early
Thursday. Snow will be possible during Wednesday`s commutes.
4. Inland runner to bring rain and snow to the region late
Thursday into Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 153 AM EST Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The ongoing Nor`easter continues to bring heavy snow
and blizzard conditions to southern New England, while our region
remains on the northern periphery of the system. Compared to the
previous forecasts, snowfall amounts have decreased with a tighter
snowfall gradient, with about 2 to 4 inches of snow expected across
south central Vermont, with increasing snow totals as you head
towards the Massachusetts border. Given the lower snowfall amounts,
the Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled. As of now, the bulk
of the snowfall looks to fall this morning, before gradually winding
down this afternoon and evening as the coastal low pulls away. In
addition to the snowfall, gusty winds are also expected with this
system, with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range increasingly likely
across southern Vermont, peaking around the early afternoon with
even higher gusts possible in the higher terrain. These winds could
lead to blowing snow, making for hazardous travel conditions and
reduced visibilities, especially in any mountain passes, so be sure
be alert and use caution if traveling through central and southern
Vermont on Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: As the coastal low pulls northeastward towards the
Canadian Maritimes, cold conditions will move into the region.
Overnight low temperatures look to drop into the single digits above
and below zero across northern New York, while Vermont remains a but
warmer in the single digits and teens. These cold temperatures
combined with brisk northwesterly winds will make for wind chills
in the -5 to -15 range across northern New York, with colder
conditions possible at higher elevations. The Champlain Valley and
rest of Vermont is likely to remain a bit warmer, as the core of
coldest air doesn`t arrive in Vermont until midday and will struggle
to make it past the mountains. Highs on Tuesday will creep into the
teens over northern New York and far northern Vermont, while the
central/southern Champlain Valley and Upper Valley warm into the
20s. In addition to the cold temperatures, some additional light
upslope snow showers will be possible night into Tuesday morning due
to some wrap around moisture, but any accumulations look to be at
this time. Temperatures Tuesday night will continue to be on the
cold side, with forecast low temperatures in the single digits,
however lighter winds and increasing cloud cover will play a role in
actual temperatures overnight.
KEY MESSAGE 3: During the pre-dawn hours Tuesday night and Wednesday, a
weak warm front will shift east across the area as a decaying
clipper low tracks across the Canadian border and Great Lakes
region. This is will bring light, powdery snow of a few tenths to
maybe an inch. After that clears, we`ll see our initially cool
single digits start to climb. Shallow warm advection will warm most
of the region into the upper 20s to mid 30s. However, above freezing
air is confined to the lowest 500 feet of the atmosphere. In the
"warm sector" of the clipper, marginally favorable low-level lapse
rates of 7 C/km with the cool conditions aloft should result in
roughly 100 J/kg of CAPE, Wednesday afternoon. A prefrontal trough
will move across the region by evening. This should initiate some
convective snow showers. Winds aloft are lacking, but a few embedded
moderate snow showers may take place Wednesday evening due to
marginal instability and the weak trough. After this round of
activity, one last occluded boundary will shift east as the upper
trough departs the region. Increasingly dry air will likely limit
this last batch of snow to western slopes. All together, none of
these round of precipitation will produce much snow. About 0.5-2.0",
and 3-4" at mountain tops is the general expectation. This likely
won`t warrant headlines, but we`ll monitor Wednesday evening
activity for any possible travel impacts.
KEY MESSAGE 4: Deterministic and ensemble models are starting to key in
on area of low pressure system that is expected to track out of the
Ohio River Valley and northeast through the St. Lawrence Valley late
Thursday through Friday. The model consensus on precipitation type
at this time is predominantly snow, but lows that track through the
St. Lawrence Valley inherently have warm air advection associated
with them. This should allow for some mix from snow to rain as
precipitation tapers off Friday morning. The NBM is currently
showing between 30-50% chance of snowfall exceeding 4 inches late
Thursday through early Friday with the main portion of the even
occurring during the overnight hours which could lessen potential
impacts from the heavier wet snow this system would likely bring. In
addition to the snow, strong southerly winds between 30-40 mph cannot
be ruled out in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys as winds
channel up the valley. Some upslope snow showers are expected across
the high terrain in the wake of the low as it appears the upper
level trough will lag about 12 hours behind the initial surface low
with steep lapse rates and plenty of cold air moving back across the
region. The longwave pattern will shift from amplified to zonal over
the weekend with the potential for a few quick snow showers but no
big systems are expected next weekend at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Relatively quiet aviation conditions are
expected while powerful low pressure remains well offshore. Snow is
edging very slowly to Rutland. Recent observations suggest that snow
will not make it quite as far north. So any IFR visibility from snow
has been removed in favor of 4SM for a short duration at KRUT, with
some TEMPOs or PROB30s where any uncertainty exists. The main impact
will then be increasing north winds to 8 to 14 knots sustained with
gusts 16 to 25 knots, mainly across Vermont terminals and KPBG with
the fastest gusts likely between about 18z and 00z Tuesday. After
00z Tuesday, winds will remain elevated, but start to decrease. LLWS
will be possible before surface winds increase this morning and as
they taper off tonight, mainly for KRUT, KMPV, and KEFK with
northeast to north winds at 2000 ft agl ranging between 35 and 40
knots.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Clay/Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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