712
FXUS61 KBTV 170637
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
137 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 130 PM EST Friday...Issued a winter weather advisory for
Rutland County for 2 to 6 inches of snow tonight into Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 130 PM EST Friday...

1. A weak system will bring light snow to the region late
tonight into Saturday. Snow amounts in excess of four inches are
expected in southern Vermont.

2. A couple rounds of heavy snow showers are possible Monday
into Tuesday as colder air enters the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 130 PM EST Friday...

.KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak low pressure system will pass across the
region late tonight into tomorrow, bringing chances for
precipitation and additional snowfall to the region, as well as
slightly warmer temperatures with some warm air advection. A
warm front will lift across the region overnight into Saturday
morning, bringing widespread light snowfall to the area. Maximum
temperatures on Saturday range from upper 20s to mid 30s.
Highest snowfall totals will be across southern Vermont, where
there area winter weather advisories issued for parts of the
area.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: A couple rounds of heavy snow showers are possible
Monday into Tuesday as colder air enters the region. As a
longwave trough slowly builds east Monday and Tuesday, a couple
fronts push their way into the region. Heavy convective snow
showers are possible, particularly across St. Lawrence and
Franklin counties in NY where there will be lake enhancement.
The most defined front looks to pass through Monday into Monday
night. There, CAPE between 50 and 100 J looks possible with
somewhat favorable FGEN. However, there will not be strong
convergence or a strong surface wind shift behind the front.
Overall, the potential for snow squalls needs to be watched but
it does not appear to be a strong case. Behind the front,
temperatures will drop fast and there will be strong winds.
Apparent temperatures currently look to range in the -5 to -15
range for most areas from Monday night through Tuesday night.
While it will feel quite cold, it is nothing atypical and right
now it does not look to reach advisory criteria, though there is
still a possibility of needing advisories outside the broad
valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Variable flight conditions are expected across
all terminals throughout the forecast period as several rounds of
snow showers traverse across the region, with potential for IFR
visibilities with any showers. While there is confidence in
precipitation occurring, there is lower confidence of the exact
timing, especially in regards to any IFR visibilities, so
several TEMPO and PROB30 groups were utilized. Ceilings are
generally between 2500 to 5000 ft AGL, with more widespread MVFR
ceilings expected by the afternoon, although cloud cover may
trend more scattered by the end of the forecast period. Winds
are generally light and variable to start, trend south to
southwesterly overnight into the day tomorrow.


Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ011-
     019>021.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Neiles
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV