590
FXUS61 KBTV 141133
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
633 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 131 AM EST Wednesday...A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for all of northern New York away from Lake Champlain,
effective from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm Thursday. Snow amounts
of 3 to 7 inches are expected in the Advisory area.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 131 AM EST Wednesday...
1. Widespread rain changing to light to moderate snow late today
into Thursday will lead to hazardous travel conditions. Sharply
falling temperatures tonight into Thursday will cause any standing
water to freeze. This combined with accumulating snow will make for
slippery conditions, especially on elevated or untreated surfaces.
The Thursday morning commute could be impacted.
2. Bitterly cold temperatures combined with breezy winds will lead
to near dangerous wind chills Thursday night into Friday morning.
3. Colder temperatures will continue through next week, with
unsettled weather bringing several chances for snow showers, which
may lead to slick travel at times.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 131 AM EST Wednesday...
.KEY MESSAGE 1: Low pressure is currently sliding by to our north
this morning, while an upper trough is digging into the Great Lakes.
This will give us a mostly dry day, with a few showers possible east
of Lake Ontario this morning. Continuing south/southwest flow ahead
of the incoming upper trough will result in a relatively mild day
for mid January, with temperatures remaining in the upper 30s to mid
40s.
However, this changes late today and overnight as another surface
low develops in response to the deepening upper trough.
Precipitation will spread eastward ahead of this surface low late
today and into our region overnight with the low progged to move
almost directly over our forecast area. Colder air will rush in
behind the low as flow turns to the west/northwest overnight into
Thursday. As noted by the previous forecaster, the arrival for the
colder air continues show a slightly slower trend. Still, anticipate
rain to quickly change over to snow by midnight across much of
northern NY, with it becoming moderate at times later tonight as the
low drifts overhead. The colder air and snow will be slower to
arrive from the Champlain Valley eastward, with the transition to
snow in the higher elevations occurring roughly 3-6 am, then
lowering down to the valley floors by 8 am as snow levels drop.
Temperatures will initially be near freezing as the changeover
occurs, but they`ll quick drop into the 20s and even teens from west
to east during the day on Thursday. Therefore, any standing water
could freeze, leading to black ice, especially on elevated or
untreated surfaces. This combined with accumulating snow will make
for hazardous travel, including during the Thursday morning commute.
Please plan for slow travel and give yourself plenty of time to
reach your destination safely.
Snow totals remain uncertain due to continued differences in timing
of the changeover from rain to snow and how much we can accumulate
when temperatures are marginal. While confidence is high that the
greatest snow amounts will be across northern NY, we continue to see
a large spread in potential amounts. In the St Lawrence Valley for
example, the 25th percentile at Massena is 3 inches while the 75th
is almost 8 inches, with the 90th all the way past 10. For northern
NY, our forecast of 3 to 7 inches generally lies within the "most
likely" range and somewhat close to the mean. As such, we were
confident of snow totals averaging 4+ inches to issue a Winter
Weather Advisory for all of northern NY outside of the Champlain
Valley.
Areas from the Champlain Valley eastward are far trickier as the
changeover to snow is later and will occur near sunrise and/or into
the daylight hours on Thursday. We`ll also start to see drier air
intrude during the day Thursday, which could serve to lower overall
precipitation amounts. Newport, for example, the 25th percentile is
about 1.5 inch, the 75th is nearly 5 inches, and the 90th goes all
the way to 7+. Note that our official forecast tends to lie on the
lower side for areas from the Champlain Valley eastward through VT,
often down near the 25th percentile. Confidence in snow amounts is
lower here than further west, and there`s the potential for them to
go up should things trend colder and/or wetter. Please stay tuned as
we continue to refine the forecast going forward.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: West winds will become gusty on Thursday into
Thursday night as cold air advection results in steep low level
lapse rates and mixing. Given the much colder airmass that is moving
into the region, ambient temperatures are expected to drop into the
positive and negative single digits by early Friday morning. This
combined with breezy winds will create wind chills below zero, with
some locations dropping to -15F or even colder Thursday night into
Friday morning. If you will be outdoors, please bundle up and dress
for bitterly cold conditions.
.KEY MESSAGE 3: After a brief warm up on Saturday, with high
temperatures in the 30s, colder air will return late this weekend
into next week. By Monday, highs will be closer to climatological
normals with below normal temperatures expected mid-week. With these
colder temperatures, an active upper level pattern will continue to
bring chances for snowfall to the region as several shortwaves
rotate through the region. First chances for snowfall arrive on
Sunday, with additional chances for snow as the week progresses.
Snowfall amounts with any of these system look to be quite modest,
with the greatest accumulations expected across northern New York
and the spine of the Green Mountains. The wintry and showery weather
pattern is expected to persist through much of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions currently prevail across
all terminals this morning, with the exception of a few pockets
of MVFR ceilings across northern New York. These conditions are
expected to prevail for the next several hours before widespread
precipitation spreads across the region. Most terminals should
see rainfall at the onset, with precipitation gradually
transitioning to snow overnight into tomorrow morning. Conditions
are expected to deteriorate to MVFR around 21Z or so, with lower
ceilings and some slightly reduced visibilities within rain.
After 00Z, IFR conditions are expected to develop due to low
ceilings and reduced visibilities due to the precipitation
transitioning to snow, with all terminals expected to see a
period of IFR. South winds will continue to weaken this morning,
with gusts expected to taper off over in the next few hours.
Outlook...
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SN, Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Thursday for NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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