611
FXUS61 KBTV 041126
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
626 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 155 AM EST Wednesday...

Precipitation trending slightly higher and farther north Thursday
night into Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 155 AM EST Wednesday...

1. Mixed precipitation possible Thursday night into Friday.

2. Rain Saturday preceded by pockets of freezing drizzle.

3. The potential for ice jams and hydrological related issues
will need to be monitored early next week due to much above normal
temperatures and significant snow melt.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 155 AM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak system tracks northeastward toward the region
late Thursday night into Friday. It will be running directly into a
cold high trying to build southeast out of Canada. Right now, the
center of the high looks to be too far east to keep the system to
the south, but close enough to provide enough surface cold air to
cause some wintry precipitation. While temperatures should rise
above freezing for many areas on Thursday, cold air will begin to
bleed down from the north during the day and cause a non-dirunal
trend, especially for St. Lawrence and Champlain valleys, setting
the stage for the wintry precipitation. The current most likely
scenario is that there is a notable warm nose Thursday night that
causes the precipitation to start as a mix of rain and freezing rain
and sleet. The warm nose looks to erode during the event and it
should eventually transition to more of a rain/snow mix by the end
for most places. Unfortunately, there is still a large model spread
with the precipitation type and how far north the precipitation
makes it, but there is slightly more confidence that there will be
some snow on the northern side of this precipitation. This
precipitation from the system will be on the light side regardless.

KEY MESSAGE 2: An area of low pressure tracks over the Great
Lakes and into Canada Friday night and Saturday, as a Bermuda
type high remains established off the coast. This sets the stage
for strong warm air and moisture advection. However, surface
cold air looks to remain entrenched east of the Greens Friday
night into early Saturday as the antecedent cold high remains
near Atlantic Canada. A few showers look to occur during this
period, and abundant low level moisture could cause some areas
of mist and drizzle. These could freeze in any of the cold
hollows. Increasing winds Friday night should prevent
significant fog from forming, but with the warm moist air over
extensive snowpack it is still possible, especially in the
protected hollows. Temperatures look to rise above freezing
region early Saturday and eventually reach the 50s for most
areas, with a run at 60 possible in the St. Lawrence Valley.
While a couple showers are possible, most of the day should be
dry. The cold front comes through late in the day and in the
evening, bringing a line of potentially heavy showers. From a
hydro perspective, the amount of rain should not be overly high.
The line should be relatively fast moving and most of the day
should be dry. However, combined with warm temperatures and dew
points reaching the 40s, significant snowmelt will occur, though
it will be pretty short lived as temperatures drop into the 30s
Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The latest WPC forecast for our area indicates the
potential for much above normal temps prevailing from Sunday through
early next week, with some record high temps possible. A summer like
Bermuda high pres ridge remains anchored off the SE CONUS, which
results in deep and warm south/southwest flow into our cwa. Several
weak boundaries wl travel along the International Border and try to
suppress the warm temps at times, but overall probability of above
normal temps thru early/middle of next week is >60%. GEFS and NAEFS
still indicates many rivers wl experience sharp rises with a 50 to
65% probability of Mad River and Otter Creek reaching minor flood
stage next week, while slightly less probability for Ausable and
Missisquio. The qpf thru early next week looks light, <0.50", with
most rises driven off significant snowmelt. The total thawing degree
hours is in the 400 to 650 range, which does suggest enough melting
for ice break up, which could lead to or increase the risk of ice
jam related flooding.

The WPC forecast indicates the best potential for rain showers late
on Tues into Weds associated with cold front and developing area of
low pres. Still plenty of uncertainty on timing and eventual track
of sfc low pres and associated thermal profiles as we head toward
middle of next week. WPC`s forecast for our area does show the
coolest day on Sunday with highs mid 40s to lower 50s, but highs
warm back up into the 50s on Monday and Tues. Based on progged 925mb
temps of 8-12C by Tues, many valley locations could be in the upper
50s to mid 60s, except cooler near Lake Champlain. WPC indicates
lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s for days 4 thru 7 attm.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...The latest GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics
satellite imagery shows areas of low clouds/stratus across the
Adirondacks, eastern Champlain Valley and parts of the Northeast
Kingdom, while some clearing is present over central VT and
western CPV. Sfc obs show IFR cigs at BTV/SLK with MVFR at RUT
and VFR at PBG/MSS/EFK and MPV, but with some lingering low
clouds. Have used a tempo groups for a couple hours this morning
to indicate IFR/MVFR, before conditions improve to VFR at all
sites by 15z. VFR prevails through 06z tonight, with some lower
cigs/vis possible toward sunrise on Thurs. Winds are
south/southwest 4 to 8 knots, but become light from the
north/northeast after midnight.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
FZRA, Chance SN, Chance PL.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN, Slight
chance FZRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Taber
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV