131
FXUS61 KBTV 150645
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
145 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 142 AM EST Thursday...No significant changes have been
made with this forecast, although snowfall amounts have decreased
slightly compared to the previous forecast. Winter Storm Warnings
and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for much of northern
New York.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 142 AM EST Thursday...
1. Rain continues to transition to snow across the region this
morning, making for slick and hazardous commutes both this morning
and later this evening. Greatest snow amounts are expected across
northern New York, with more elevation dependent snowfall expected
Vermont.
2. Cold temperatures and brisk westerly winds will lead to bitterly
cold wind chills tonight into Friday.
3. Colder temperatures will continue through next week, with
unsettled weather bringing several chances for snow showers, which
may lead to slick travel at times.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 142 AM EST Thursday...
.KEY MESSAGE 1: Precipitation continues to overspread the region
this morning as surface low pressure over northwestern Pennsylvania
continues to track to the north, with a transition to snow expected
to continue over the next few hours. At this moment, temperatures
are cold enough enough that much of northern New York is observing
snow, while rain and drizzle is being observed elsewhere. The trends
will need to be monitored, but at this current rate it looks like
the Champlain Valley will transition to snow later this morning,
with wet roads and cold rain a few wet snowflakes expected during
the morning commute.
The current forecast shows about 7 inches within the Winter Storm
Warning area across the St. Lawrence Valley, with 3 to 5 generally
in the Winter Weather Advisory in northern New York. Snow totals
across Vermont are much less given a later transition to snowfall,
with most locations outside of the higher terrain only seeing an
inch or so across northern Vermont and little to no snow
accumulation in the Connecticut River Valley and portions of
southern Vermont. The snowfall across Vermont is also much more
elevation dependent, with a few inches of snow are expected across
the spine of the Greens given colder temperatures already in place.
Compared to the previous forecast, snow totals have decreased
slightly across northern New York. This is mainly due to a slower
arrival of the colder air and transition to snowfall. This snowfall
forecast continues to be tricky, with a large spread in potential
amounts, both due to thermal profiles and dry slot potential.
Snow will gradually taper off to snow showers this evening, with
some additional snow accumulations possible in the more favored
upslope locations.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: In the wake of the cold front pushing across the
region today, sharply colder air in combination with brisk westerly
winds will make for blustery conditions tonight into tomorrow
morning. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the
single digits tonight and low teens tonight, with some of the colder
hollows potentially dipping below zero. Apparent temperatures will
generally be below zero, generally -5F to -15F, with -20 to -30
expected at summits. After the recent stretch of warmer weather this
week, these temperatures will likely feel quite cold so be sure to
bundle up if you plan on being outside.
.KEY MESSAGE 3: After a brief warm up on Saturday, with high
temperatures in the 30s, colder air will return late this weekend
into next week. By Monday, highs will be closer to climatological
normals with below normal temperatures expected mid-week. With these
colder temperatures, an active upper level pattern will continue to
bring chances for snowfall to the region as several shortwaves
rotate through the region. First chances for snowfall arrive on
Sunday, with additional chances for snow as the week progresses.
Snowfall amounts with any of these system look to be quite modest,
with the greatest accumulations expected across northern New York
and the spine of the Green Mountains. The wintry and showery weather
pattern is expected to persist through much of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Widespread rain moves in this evening into
the overnight hours tonight. Rain changes to snow across
northern New York tonight and across most of Vermont on Thursday
morning. A sharply elevation dependent snowfall is expected,
especially across Vermont.
Rain has just begin at the KRUT site, and this is expected to
spread northwards to all other sites this evening by around
02Z-04Z Thursday. Visibilities in this initial rain should
remain around 3+ miles, quickly mixing with and then changing
over to all snow at KSLK by 01Z-03Z Thursday. KMSS will be the
next to follow, then KPBG, and all three New York sites will
likely have visibilities dropping below 3 miles by around
06Z-12Z. Timing for IFR visibilities is quite tricky at KBTV as
much will depend on the timing of snow mixing in with rain.
Currently looks like around 08Z-10Z at KBTV we`ll see
visibilities drop below 3 miles in a heavier burst of
precipitation, potentially of rain as well as wet snowflakes
starting to mix in. Other sites will also have periods of IFR
vis as they make the changeover to snow and remain there,
anytime from 08Z through 22Z depending on the site`s location
and elevation. Visibilities are expected to recover 22Z onwards,
though snow showers may linger with vis 3-6 miles at times. Of
all the sites, KMSS looks most likely to hold onto vis 1-3 miles
through the end of the 24 hour TAF period as another albeit
weak shortwave swipes the St. Lawrence Valley Friday afternoon
and evening.
Ceilings are currently a mix of VFR and MVFR with the exception
of KMSS which has already had cigs go down to 700-1000 feet
above ground level this evening. These ceilings look to stay
locked in place across the St. Lawrence Valley through around
05Z-07Z. Beyond this time frame, confidence is lower, but still
looking likely that KMSS keeps its IFR cig throughout the rest
of the night and into Friday`s daylight hours with snow ongoing.
KMSS is within our Winter Storm Warning area, which is where we
anticipate the heaviest snow and overall poorest conditions.
KSLK is the next forecast site see ceilings below 1000 feet
starting around 01Z-03Z, keeping timing with its changeover to
all snow. Other sites are expected to also have ceilings below
1000 feet by around 09Z-15Z, lingering until 16Z-22Z when most
return to ceilings 1000-2200 feet.
Winds this evening are generally out of the south-southwest
5-10 knots or lower. We expect to see winds turn out of the
north around 02Z-04Z, however, many spots may remain calm or
light and variable though 12Z. KRUT will likely see its typical
southeasterly drainage flow for several hours tonight. Winds
will then pick up throughout the day Friday out of the west and
gusting 15-25 knots from 12Z-21Z onwards through the end of the
24 hour TAF period. Some models are indicating the low level jet
will creep near enough to KMSS for a few hours 08Z-12Z to
produce some weak low level wind shear, but confidence is low on
that potential at this time.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible.
Chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ026-
027-087.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
NYZ029>031-034.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kremer
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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