614
FXUS61 KBTV 040622
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
222 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 220 AM EDT Thursday...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 220 AM EDT Thursday...
1. Above normal temperatures and dry weather prevail through
Friday.
2. Rain expected Saturday into Sunday with a few thunderstorms
possible with embedded heavy rain.
3. Warm and dry conditions will start off next week, with
little precipitation chances through mid next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm, continental air will continue tracking into the
region. The dryness of the air has resulted pleasant sleeping
conditions. Although the local forecast wisdom for 925mb
temperatures seem a little cool to be approaching 90 F, the bright
June sun should warm very efficiently with the dry air mass into the
80s across the area, with common hot spots like KBTV getting close
to 90. With dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s, as well as a steady
southwesterly breeze of 5-10 mph, it should feel relatively
pleasant. Still, it will be good to stay hydrated and take care to
avoid heat-related illness.
Nighttime temperatures should fall efficiently, but to a lesser
degree as low-level moisture starts increasing. Additionally, it
seems we`ll have patchy cloud cover. So low temperatures will likely
only reach the mid 50s to mid 60s at night. Friday`s temperatures
will be very similar to today, and with higher dewpoints. It still
won`t be enough to make things muggy, but not quite as comfortable,
and that means warmer nighttime lows in the 60s as well Friday night.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Friday night into Saturday, a pair of upper troughs will
track through channeled flow. A broad, disorganized surface low will
shift east along James Bay towards the Gulf of St. Lawrence. A
tongue of enhanced moisture will surge ahead of it, and the moisture
advection should allow for some nighttime showers, especially if
there`s any remnant convection embedded. The broad ridge will still
be exerting its influence, and so most precipitation will likely
track along the international border initially. During the day on
Saturday, an upstream ridge begins to quickly amplify to the Hudson
Bay. This begins to force the upper trough southwards in a similar
pattern we`ve seen the last couple weekends. The surface low near
the Gulf of St. Lawrence will start tracking southeastwards and slow
down. There are some speed differences that will be relevant to
Saturday`s outlook. A faster system will shunt the better moisture
plume south and bring the stronger cold front in during the
overnight hours. A slower system will allow the better moisture
plume into the region, as well as allow for more atmospheric
instability on Saturday and more lingering showers into Sunday.
We`ll continue to fine tune the forecast, but some interval of
showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday. PWATs will
run around 1.33-1.67", and storm motions could be erratic or involve
some training. Tall, skinny CAPE profiles can also favor heavy
precipitation. However, the favorability of dynamics are unclear,
with the better instability and moisture plume appearing to be
focused south. Different model scenarios indicate a swath of heavier
rain, where there could be potential for heavy rain. Based on the
NBM probabilities over 1.00", it seems the favored area is around
the international border and into Montreal at 20-40%. For any severe
threat, there may be a strong storm or two, but there will be a
700mb warm nose much of the day and relatively little shear or
notably high instability due to poor lapse rates. Showers and storms
will likely run into Saturday night with a stronger frontal boundary
sagging south, but the poor time of day will limit coverage some.
The cold front will cross south with some additional activity into
the afternoon, mainly south. This will help bring some briefly
cooler temperatures before we quickly rebound into the new week.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A bit of deja vu is in store next week with a return of
strong ridging and little in the way of precipitation. temperatures
will be nearly identical next week, albeit a day on the week
calendar earlier, with highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s on
Wednesday. Our pattern will be dominated by strong upper level
ridging centered over the eastern Great Lakes with the ridge arching
northeast overtop of upper level troughing along the Gulf Stream and
Mid-Atlantic. While not a perfect case, a Rex Block looks possible
heading into next week which would increase confidence in warm and
dry conditions. How tilted the ridge axis becomes is not entirely
certain between the ensembles, however, the main axis is at least
further east than this weeks axis which would keep any backdoor cold
fronts and troughing less favored. Keeping in mind our current
temperature forecast through the end of this week, from Monday into
Wednesday next week, temperatures will be nearly identical to this
week for next week, albeit a day on the week calendar earlier, with
highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday/Thursday next
week, instead of on Thursday/Friday this week. Some models do denote
the ridge sinks a bit south towards late next week for a brief
reprieve from the heat, but the expectation is that it returns for
next weekend. Expect temperatures to be above normal, with below
normal precipitation for most of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Persistent VFR conditions continue under surface
high pressure through the TAF package. Skies will remain clear
during most of the daytime hours with light flow at or under 10
knots, outside of MSS. Channeled flow will keep MSS around 10 knots,
with occasional gusts between 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. Winds
will start off terrain driven after sunrise, with southerly winds in
the Champlain Valley. Winds will then turn westerly by the
afternoon, outside of the St. Lawrence Valley where winds will
remain southwesterly. Winds trend towards calm after sunset this
evening outside of MSS, with some weak (under 10 knots) downslope
westerly winds between 00-05Z at PBG. Some high clouds return near
the end of the TAF period.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures will be approaching daily record warm values on
Thursday, June 4th, and Friday, June 5th. At this time,
Plattsburgh (PBG) and Montpelier (MPV) have the greatest chances
of setting a new record.
Record High Temperatures:
June 4:
KMPV: 87/2025
KPBG: 88/1967
June 5:
KMPV: 86/2025
KPBG: 90/2020
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 5:
KPBG: 65/1963
June 6:
KPBG: 67/1973
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes/Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Haynes
AVIATION...Danzig
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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