520
FXUS61 KBTV 222332
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
732 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 632 PM EDT Wednesday...
Radar shows scattered showers have developed over the high peaks
of the Adirondacks and portions of the northern Greens, drifting
southeast. Webcams/surface obs indicate this activity is mostly
virga and not reaching the ground. However, have increased PoPs
to include slight to low end chances of some light rain making
it to the surface. No other changes were needed at this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow.
Dry conditions will continue on Friday but with limited concern
for fire spread with lighter winds.
2. Relatively quiet weather and seasonable temperatures are
expected for the weekend into early next week, with increasing
precipitation chances towards the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Aside from a portion of southern Vermont where
low altitude clouds were rather thick under the influence of a
marine stratus layer, today was another seasonably warm and dry
in a string of several similar days. An area of low pressure,
mainly in the mid levels of the atmosphere and far to our north
near Hudson Bay this afternoon, will be steered southeastward
tonight. It will rapidly push into northern Maine tomorrow
morning and drag a cold front through our region, with some
spotty showers expected, with greatest chances of any measurable
rain over northeastern Vermont closer to the low pressure area.
This front will importantly shift winds to the northwest, and
its surface reflection is expected to deepen just enough to our
east to enhance the pressure gradient to support gusty winds
during the day Thursday.
Conditions will be favorable for wildfires to start and become
difficult to contain tomorrow afternoon. Our forecast continues
to bring relative humidities towards the lowest model guidance
and wind gusts towards the highest guidance during the day.
Forecast soundings show a weak inversion during the morning and
a lot of dry air that suggests sharply falling dew points (or
dew point bomb). Since the cold air advection is rather weak,
temperatures should still be fairly warm with full sunshine,
topping out in the mid to upper 50s in the areas of most concern
in the Champlain and Upper Valley. The northwest wind direction
is less favorable for strong gusts in the St. Lawrence Valley,
but across northern New York and much of western and southern
Vermont (northeastern Vermont looks a bit less dry), relative
humidity will likely drop to near 30%. Portions of the Upper
Valley and southern Champlain Valley are especially favored to
see minimum values near 25%. Wind gusts are going to mainly be
20 to 25 MPH. However, top of the mixed layer winds, which due
to strong insolation are expected to deepen the boundary layer
to near or above 800 millibars, will be in the 25 to 30 knot
range. This would support the potential to overachieve on wind
gusts, especially southeast/downslope of hills and mountain
peaks. More details are provided in the Fire Weather Forecast and the
latest Special Weather Statement.
The upper level pattern remains similar into Friday with even
drier conditions expected. However, the orientation of the
trough to our east and position of the ridge being more overhead
rather than to our west should provide us somewhat cooler
conditions and northerly flow that is a little less gusty
compared to Thursday. Therefore, fire weather concerns are low
at this time.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A relatively quiet stretch of weather is expected to
continue heading into the weekend and the beginning of next week.
While a few showers may be possible, high pressure overhead will
keep most precipitation chances to our south across southern New
England and the Mid-Atlantic. Relative dry weather is expected to
continue through the beginning of next week, with more precipitation
chances not arriving until Tuesday night or Wednesday at this time,
which may be even later depending on how quickly ridging across the
region breaks down. There is still plenty of uncertainty amongst
model guidance, so details will become more certain as we get
closer. Temperatures will generally be near seasonable normals for
late April, with daytime highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and
overnight lows in the 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected at most
terminals through the period. The exceptions will be KRUT, KEFK,
and perhaps KMPV where ceilings will lower to MVFR at 03z and
05z, respectively. At KMPV, confidence in persistent MVFR
ceilings is too low to include in the TAF at this time.
Regardless, clouds may wane in coverage for a brief time this
evening, then expect BKN-OVC ceilings to develop overnight as a
weak frontal boundary slides from north to south. Isolated to
scattered showers are possible with the front, mainly in the
northern VT terminals. Only KEFK warrants mention of showers at
this time, with a PROB30 05z-10z. Visibility 5-6SM in any
showers. Ceilings improve to VFR at all terminals after 14z as
clouds lift and thin out. Winds light and variable early,
trending N/NW by 10z and becoming gusty during the daylight
hours Thursday.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Hastings
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