003
FXUS61 KBTV 130618
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
218 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 214 AM EDT Wednesday...

Rainfall amounts have increased, mainly across Vermont for
Thursday into Friday. This will still be largely beneficial for
the region.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 214 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. Wet weather ahead with beneficial rains over the region.

2. Temperatures warm above seasonal normals heading into early
next week, with a few chances for showers possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 214 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Satellite shows a now closed off upper low tracking
southeast along the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and RAP analyzed
surface low over the Mitt is slowly deepening. Satellite shows a
well-defined baroclinic leaf for the warm conveyor belt with the
attendant warm front. The initial part collapsed beneath dry air,
but KTYX base reflectivity shows this next push of moisture will
more likely reach the surface. Even this is not the warm front, and
as rain translates northeast, it will fade. The main push arrives
later this morning and afternoon with a well-defined warm front that
will quickly races northeastwards. Some drying within the warm
sector will take place this afternoon and evening. Then, as the
upper low approaches, excellent upper diffluence and sufficient
moisture will produce scattered to numerous showers as weak
instability of 150-350 J/kg develops. A low probability for a
thunderstorm exists in St. Lawrence and Franklin Counties of New
York.

It continues to look like that the loss of daytime heating and a
decrease in frontal forcing will cause precipitation to decrease
overnight. However, as the upper low ambles eastwards, the
upper level southeasterly flow and secondary development near
Long Island will result in moisture overrunning the remnant
boundary, mostly towards Vermont early Thursday morning and
afternoon. Compared to yesterday, the main trend has been for
the parent low and secondary low to linger longer, as opposed to
getting more broadly absorbed into another surface low east of
the 40 N, 70 W benchmark. In the grand scheme of things, this
doesn`t change much, but it does result in a somewhat higher
chance for rain continuing into Friday across Vermont, while dry
air still remains more prevalent over northern New York.

Rainfall amounts have increased somewhat, but this will be
beneficial. Most locations are running 1-2" below normal for liquid
amounts year-to-date, and this will reduce that gap. The long
duration will preclude flooding. Although convective elements may
appear at times, parameters are marginal and PWATs are not
particularly off the charts never getting above 1". Moderate rain
could develop at times given the favorable forcing. Some high
resolution guidance appears to be suffering from convective feedback
with heavy rainfall rates, but little instability, and so the higher
end of modeled rainfall forecasts should be taken with caution. The
general picture of 0.50-1.00" continues, with favored eastern slopes
of the Dacks and Greens closer to 1.50". Some areas could receive
localized amounts to 1.75". HREF and REFS probabilities of 1.50"
range between 10-40% across the region, with some higher chances
over mountains, and generally 10% or less for 2".

By Saturday, we should be clearing out. Ridging builds and warm air
starts filtering in across northern New York and Vermont. After the
stretch of cool weather, reaching the 70s will feel quite welcome on
Saturday. Another trough will start swinging southeast Saturday
evening. There remains some uncertainty on the timing and whether
precipitation can develop, especially with little in the way of
forcing or instability beneath this ridge axis, but a low end chance
for some rain is possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Heading into the weekend, low pressure looks to
shift out of the region towards the Canadian Maritimes, with
high pressure trying to nose into the region, bringing mostly
dry conditions. Warming temperatures aloft will make for a
warming trend as we head into the beginning of next week, with
temperatures near or above climatological normals for this time
of year. Daytime highs look to climb in the 70s and even 80s,
with overnight lows in the 40s to mid 50s. While there is high
confidence in the warming trend, there is lower confidence in
the exact magnitude of the warmth, especially at this time
frame. A few chances for precipitation look to be possible early
next week as a shortwave moves through the region, with more
robust precipitation expected mid-week as a frontal boundary
pushes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions will continue for the next few
hours as cloud cover continues to increase across the region
associated with an approaching warm front, which will bring
widespread rainfall for much of the day. With dry air in place
across the region, it may take a little for precipitation to reach
the ground, but precipitation is expected to arrive between 12Z and
15Z, with ceilings lowering to MVFR in this time period as well.
MVFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period, due
to a combination of ceilings and visibilities within rain showers.
There is some potential of IFR ceilings developing during the
afternoon, however confidence and model consensus is low so left
them out of the forecast for now. Winds are currently light and
variable, but will trend southerly towards 12Z, with some gusts of
20 to 25 knots possible in the afternoon. Some LLWS will be possible
at most terminals this afternoon as a low level jet moves overhead.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite RA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Haynes
AVIATION...Kremer