236
FXUS61 KBTV 122344
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
644 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 139 PM EST Thursday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 139 PM EST Thursday...
1. Snow showers continue to dwindle across the region, with
drier conditions expected tonight and tomorrow.
2. A weak disturbance will bring additional snow showers to the
region Friday night into Saturday.
3. Modest warming trend expected early next week with more
uncertainty thereafter. Periods of snow and/or rain are possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 139 PM EST Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: It`s shaping up to be a pleasant February afternoon as
with seasonably cool temperatures and blue skies trying to make an
appearance as moisture continues to wane across the region.
Lingering mountain snow showers will continue to taper off this
afternoon due to the lack of moisture, with dry weather expected
tonight into the day tomorrow.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A weak clipper system will bring some additional snow
showers to the region Friday night into Saturday. This feature looks
to fall apart as it moves through the region, with weak forcing and
limited moisture allowing for rather lackluster snowfall amounts and
little to no impacts. The current forecast shows only a dusting to a
few tenths of an inch for most locations, with a few inches possible
across the higher terrain. These snow showers should taper off
throughout the day Saturday, with high pressure building in for the
later half of the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The main story for next week will be the warming trend
through Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday. Daytime highs in the upper
30s to low/mid 40s look fairly likely, with lows mainly in the mid
20s. We`ll have one upper shortwave swing across the region Sunday
night into Monday. It`s fairly weak and moisture-starved but it
could produce some showers as it moves through, likely snow but
perhaps mixing with and/or changing to rain if the precipitation
persists into Monday afternoon. Things become more complicated
thereafter as a complex frontal system has the potential to bring
rain, freezing rain, and snow to the region. There are a lot of
differences in both deterministic and ensemble solutions with this
system, as a frontal boundary looks to be draped somewhere near or
over our forecast area, separating cold air spreading southward from
Canada and warm air lifting northward toward the international
border. The question is where this all sets up. Stay tuned to later
forecasts as hopefully trends will become more clear as we approach
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Skies are clearing across the region,
and winds are trending light to terrain driven. An increased
number of high resolution and LAMP guidance is suggesting we may
decouple such that ice crystals will be suspended just off the
ground about 08z-13z, and this may result in ice fog or ice
pillars. Impacts to visibility and forecasting this type of
phenomena is already a low confidence proposition. So only KSLK
has a TEMPO leading into prevailing 2SM since it has the highest
probability for getting cold enough for these conditions and
the most model support, while most other fog prone regions have
VCFG noted. Otherwise, after 13z, a range of southwest to
northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph, locally higher at KMSS is
expected through the day, and decreasing approaching 00z
Saturday. After 00z Saturday, snow showers will approach from
the northwest.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Washingtons Birthday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO
SIG WX.
Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 139 PM EST Thursday...
In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32
degrees was January 22nd. The next time we are forecasting
temperatures rising above 32 in Burlington is this Saturday,
February 14th. If that forecast holds, that would be 22 days in
a row below freezing. Sub-freezing temperature streaks this
long are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening
January-February 2015.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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