792
FXUS61 KBTV 312348
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
748 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 238 PM EDT Tuesday...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled. While a light glaze
of freezing rain is still possible this evening and tonight,
significant effects on travel are not expected.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 238 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. Periods of rain continue through tonight with localized
light freezing rain possible.
2. Rain showers and patchy freezing rain possible Thursday into
Friday.
3. River rises expected with local lowland field flooding
possible into Wednesday.
4. Warm and gusty conditions likely Friday through Sunday with
unsettled weather to end the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 238 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The first round of rain moved through this morning and
has exited. Overall, between 0.25 to 0.75 inches has generally
fallen with some smaller totals toward the north and east. Now, the
region is almost entirely in a break and that will continue for much
of the afternoon, before the showers over the Great Lakes Region
move in this evening and tonight. Before then, areas of mist and
drizzle will continue to occur, especially across northern areas
with northerly flow and a sharp inversion. Some elevated instability
will be present this evening, especially in areas farther south.
This will likely lead to a few rumbles of thunder, though the storms
will likely weaken from what they are now over the Great Lakes.
Overall, another 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain is expected, though
there will be some locally higher amounts over central and southern
Vermont that see more of the elevated convection. High pressure will
gradually build down from the north and drop temperatures in
northern areas close to or slightly below freezing this evening and
tonight. This will cause any rain to change to freezing rain and a
light glaze is possible, particularly over far northern New York.
However, the precipitation is expected to exit much sooner than
before, and temperatures will be slightly warmer than forecast
yesterday. Therefore, by the time the temperatures drop below
freezing, most of the precipitation will be gone. A few areas
dropped to 31 and 32 degrees this morning and likely saw some very
light freezing rain, but the temperatures have since risen a couple
degrees.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A storm system tracks well to the north and west of the
region Thursday night into Friday. It will push a warm front across
the region from south to north during the day Thursday.
Precipitation continues to trend lighter with a farther west storm
track. The current forecast of 0.1 to 0.25 inches of rain is likely
still on the higher side. Temperatures in the colder hollows east of
the Greens and in southern Essex County New York look to drop below
freezing Thursday night. Therefore, any lingering showers there
could fall as freezing rain. However, with marginal temperatures
around freezing and low liquid totals, amounts should at most be a
light glaze.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Despite a continued southward shift in the heaviest
precipitation, river rises will continue to occur into Wednesday,
and lowland field type flooding remains possible. Overall, the
expected 0.5 to 1.5 inch totals over 36 hours would not cause much
of a threat by themselves, but some elevated instability and
associated rainfall enhancement will lead to locally higher totals
in southern areas. The heaviest rainfall axis looks to set up over
central and southern areas, where local amounts up to around two
inches are possible. However, there will be some notable factors
limiting the flood threat. The first is that the rain is coming
through in two mostly separate rounds, with almost twelve hours in
between, giving time for rivers to take up the water. The second is
that the cool surface temperatures and dew points will continue,
especially where the snowpack remains at the higher elevations. Dew
points only look to reach the upper 30s and low 40s, with maximum
temperatures not much higher. A gradually cooling trend should allow
snowmelt to decline further going into tonight. With that being
said, several rivers look to approach Action Stage and minor
flooding cannot be ruled out in a reasonable worst case scenario.
The river forecast to minor for the East Branch of the Ausable River
in Ausable Forks is on the very high side, with ensemble guidance
averaging below that and shadowing effects limiting precipitation as
well.
KEY MESSAGE 4: Trends with the late week system have trended a bit
north as strong southerly winds and a 50-60kt 850mb low-level jet
will help to usher in abnormally warm southerly air. This warmup
should scour out any lingering cold air east of the Greens Friday
morning with surging surface temperatures into the 60s areawide. The
ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index remains high on high temperatures being
high Friday afternoon, particularly in the Champlain Valley and St.
Lawrence Valley. Temperatures could easily reach the low 70s in the
deeper valleys as southerly flow in the morning helps to mix and dry
out the surface, which from recent trends, can lead to
underestimating the high temperature by several degrees. Aiding this
increased temperature forecast is the northward trend of the
Thursday night system which will help draw more waa. The warmup will
be accompanied by a strong 50-60kt LLJ at 850mb which should lead to
gusty conditions. Again, recent trends have shown winds are
underdone in setups like these, and have blended in NBM90th guidance
with south wind gusts in the Champlain Valley 30-35 MPH, and as
winds turn more westerly throughout the day, 30-35 MPH in the St.
Lawrence Valley Friday afternoon. Have subsequently lowered PoPs
during the day Friday, though some diurnally driven convective
showers may be possible in the higher terrain.
Into the weekend, breezy conditions will remain as a weak cold front
Friday night, will lift back north leading to further warm
temperatures near 60 on Saturday. A more organized system with good
moisture connection to the Gulf will move into the area late
Saturday into Sunday. Shower chances increase as a cold front pass
through the region. An isolated rumble of thunder may be possible
with some elevated instability in the St. Lawrence Valley, but cloud
cover and the forcing timing should keep thunder chances low. Shower
chance persist through the day Sunday as the boundary slows, but
should taper off by Monday morning. The front does not seem to have
a strong thermal gradient behind as temperatures still warm into the
low 50s Sunday, but winds will switch to the northwest late Sunday
night which will be the signal for cooling temperatures back to near
normal heading into next week. Winds will remain gusty behind the
front Sunday into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...A wide range of conditions across the
terminals at the start of the TAF period, ranging from LIFR at
KMSS/KPBG to VFR at KRUT. Widespread shower activity,
mist/drizzle, and low ceilings are responsible for these
conditions, and expect we`ll continue to see rounds of showers
and low ceilings through 08z-10z. During this time, ceilings of
500-1500 ft will be most likely, with visibility 3-5SM.
Visibility improves after 10z as showers end, but ceilings will
likely remain IFR for a few more hours before gradually lifting
through MVFR to near VFR by the end of the TAF period. Winds
generally light and variable overnight, with a strong LLJ
creating LLWS through 08z. After 12z Wed, expect N/NW winds
5-10 kt through the remainder of the day.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
FZRA, Chance SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday Night: MVFR. Likely RA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Myskowski
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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