550
FXUS61 KBTV 111836
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
236 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 231 PM EDT Saturday...

No significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 231 PM EDT Saturday...

1. Relative quiet through Sunday afternoon.

2. Swap to active pattern begins Sunday evening through early
Monday with rain and embedded thunder, and then strong wind gusts
outside precipitation on Monday.

3. A surface front will remain in our general region for the
middle and later portions of next week with mild temperatures and
periodic threats for showers and a few storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 231 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Two cool, mostly dry days are on tap. High res guidance
depicts several pinpricks of shallow convection simmering in the
Northeast Kingdom. Breezy northwest winds will also advect dry air,
with low-level relative humidity dropping to 30-40%. Low-level dry
air will prevent some precipitation from reaching the ground, but
good mid-level lapse rates and sufficient moisture at 4000-5000 ft
will be present. Shower activity will peak about 4-6 PM before
settling after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Our
seasonably cool conditions in the mid 40s to lower 50s will
translate to a seasonably cool night in the 20s to about 30. A
seasonable Sunday will give way to cloudiness, and then
precipitation chances increase Sunday evening. Before clouds and
precipitation arrive, dry relative humidity values are expected
across Vermont down to 30%, but with 5-10 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The warm front Sunday afternoon/evening will be
fairly pronounced, and the cross isobaric flow at 295K is
strong. Analysis of model soundings suggest about 100-200 J/kg
of elevated instability will be present with a strengthening
60-70kt 850mb southwesterly jet near the nose of the inversion.
The timing of the jet during the nighttime and coincident with
rain will likely prevent mixing winds to the surface, but any
flights coming in will be rocky. Embedded convection could
produce thunder and heavier rainfall rates. Where the heaviest
rain will fall depends on where the nose of the incoming LLJ
lands, and high res guidance is not in the greatest agreement.
Some scenarios place the strip of heavier rain along and north
of the international border while others place is squarely over
the Adirondacks and central Vermont. The majority depicts
activity north, but have tried to demonstrate a PoP max that
travels northeast before settling north of the international
border.

The question for Monday becomes whether we clear out during the day
or when a subtle 500mb trough moves east. Depending on how much
clearing we get, any lingering winds from the still 40-50kt
southwesterly LLJ could mix to the ground, especially in eastern
downslope regions and channeling in southwest to northeast
valleys. So parts of northern New York and the northern
Champlain Valley are presently forecast to observe 35-45 mph
gusts beginning pre-dawn into Monday afternoon. Warming
downslope flow will produce regions of localized heating. In
general, temperatures will climb into the 60s, up to 70 in the
Upper Valley. Although the interquartile range of the NBM is
rather large (~10 degree spread between the 25th and 75th
percentile), showing some of the differences in timing the
subtle 500mb trough and exit of morning precipitation.

The slowest models push precipitation into the area by Monday
evening, and so additional showers are expected, and that will begin
to cap any potential wind gusts once rain returns. The late timing
should limit any thunder from this. On Monday night, a small ridge
will build in between with light west-northwest to northerly flow.
It may not completely remove some of the moisture pooling in the
region, though. So Monday night into Tuesday morning will remain on
the warm side in the 40s to near 50.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Blended national solutions continue to support the idea
that an east-west oriented frontal boundary will remain close to or
atop our region from Tuesday through the end of next week. While
there should be some dry periods, several surface waves riding along
the boundary will bring the threat of showers, and a few non-severe
storms as periodic steep lapse rates aloft traverse through the mean
mid-level westerly flow. The best threat of wetting rainfall looks
to occur by later Tuesday into Thursday with hints of some drying by
week`s end/Friday. Broad south/southwesterly boundary layer flow
should be sufficient to push temperatures well above mid-April daily
averages by some 10-20 degrees, or well into the 60s/lower 70s for
afternoon highs, consistent with the current CPC 6-10 day outlook.
With the front in proximity to our area for much of the period,
variable clouds should also be the rule with some intermittent
sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions continue across the region
with SCT-BKN045-060 through 00z Sun. Thereafter VFR conditions
continue with clearing skies thru 12z then high-mid deck moves
into area ard-aft 14z Sun.

Winds continue to be between 15 to 25 knots throughout the
afternoon. Winds look to trend more light and variable after
00Z.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...JMG/Haynes
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV