971
FXUS61 KBTV 250718
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
318 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 238 AM EDT Saturday...
Chances for showers and thunderstorms have increased slightly Monday
as confidence increases for enough moisture and upper level
troughing to produce scattered to numerous showers.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 318 AM EDT Saturday...
3. An unsettled weather pattern is anticipated this upcoming
week with several rounds of showers and embedded
thunderstorms expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 318 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 3: Global guidance shows a large spread in potential
solutions associated with development/magnitude of mid/upper lvl
trof acrs the NE CONUS for this upcoming week. ECMWF/UKMET and ICON
show a deepening and closing off 700-500mb circulation acrs the NE
CONUS/Mid Atlantic States Tues/Weds time frame, while GFS/CMC are
less robust with closing system off and more progressive with
mid/upper lvl trof lifting acrs the NE CONUS. The ECMWF/UKMET and
ICON solution would need to be watched closely for potential
flooding, especially with slow moving showers/embedded thunder
associated with being directly under the closed low pres. Given the
large ridge/trof amplification expected acrs the CONUS this upcoming
week, this solution has the potential to happen, as does a faster
with minimal impact scenario advertised by the GFS/CMC. A couple
factors could limit heavy rain potential, such as better instability
is located to our south and closing mid/upper lvl circulation is
associated with northern stream energy with pw values only around 1
STD above normal. We will continue to monitor later guidance
packages and look for a trend in the potential outcomes. For now WPC
has 60 to 90% Tues/Weds with values tapering off to 30-40% by late
week. Highs generally at or slightly below normal, due to
clouds/precip, but lows at or slightly above normal. Highs mainly
70s to near 80 and lows upper 50s to mid 60s for Tues thru Fri.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...High pressure anchored across our TAF sites
is resulting in VFR conditions with light winds early this
morning. TAF challenging is the potential for fog/br at MPV/SLK
this morning. SLK is approaching their cross over temp with some
5-6SM BR already, so given lighter wind profiles than previous
couple of nights, intervals of IFR vis/cigs in fog/br is
possible between 07-11z this morning. MPV has a little large
temp/dwpt spread and feel just a brief period of fog/br is
possible near sunrise this morning. Otherwise, VFR prevails at
all sites today with south/southwest winds 4 to 8 knots.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Taber/Storm
AVIATION...Taber
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