245
FXUS61 KBTV 101729
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
129 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 255 AM EDT Friday...
Winds were increased Sunday night into Monday ahead and along a
cold front expected to move through the region.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 255 AM EDT Friday...
1. Dry conditions will persist for southern Vermont ahead of a
wetting rainfall as a cold front moves through the region.
2. Temperatures trend warmer late this weekend with another
system expected to move through the region by Monday. Gusty
winds are possible.
3. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected for next week,
along with several chances for precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 AM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions continue, especially across
southern Vermont where overnight recoveries will remain poor to
moderately good. Winds remain breezy at the time of this
writing which is keeping radiation inversions for forming in
many valleys while ridge/slopes remain exposed to drier
breezes. Fortunately, wind speeds are not critical and are
expected to trend lighter while RH recovers into the 45-70%
range by daybreak. Keeping with latest observation trends, opted
not to go with model guidance for dew points in southern Vermont
keeping drier conditions ongoing through this afternoon. Winds
will increase marginally through the day, so some gusts to 25
mph remain possible and could result in very localized areas of
fire weather concerns in southern Vermont.
A cold front will move through the region today bringing a
wetting rain(0.1" or greater) that will help mitigate fire
weather concerns heading into the weekend. Kept QPF trending
with CAMs which are better highlighting terrain with higher QPF
amounts ranging 0.25-0.5" while lower elevations range
0.1-0.25" in general. Frontal timing remains fairly consistent
with heaviest precipitation occurring early afternoon for the
St Lawrence Valley, between 6 and 9 PM for the Champlain Valley,
and by midnight for southern Vermont. Westerly flow will
promote some shadowing, especially in southern Vermont where the
lowest amounts are projected to be. Temperatures will be above
seasonal averages today and tonight trending more seasonal for
Saturday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Another system will be approaching Sunday with
widespread rain seemingly probable Sunday night into Monday.
Projected position of the parent low moving over the James Bay
will favor strongest forcing north of the region so
thunderstorms are not as likely. However, model projections of a
strong low level jet remain and support concerns for gusty
winds, especially in the Champlain Valley. Strong warm air
advection is likely in this pattern and would support high
temperatures at least in the 60s for most locations, if not
around 70 degrees Monday afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Surface high pressure will shift eastward by the end of
the weekend, with guidance continuing to support the eastern CONUS
under broad upper level ridging. Several shortwaves look to move
into the region under broad zonal flow, bringing chances for rain
showers, but the exact timing and details of these features are
difficult to pinpoint this far out. Unseasonably warm temperatures
are expected for early next week, as southerly flow helps usher in
warmer air. Daytime high temperatures look to climb into the upper
60s and even 70s by the middle of next week. In comparison, normal
high temperatures for this time of year are generally in the upper
40s to mid 50s. These trends will need to be monitored as we get
closer.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...A cold front with a line of showers is
approaching the St Lawrence Valley at this time. Currently VFR
conditions prevail at all TAF sites, but conditions will change
rapidly this afternoon/evening as CIGS quickly lower behind the
initial boundary. Expecting VFR to trend toward MVFR by 21z-00z
with IFR by 00z at SLK/MSS. I have a tempo to cover the
uncertainty on timing of IFR at MSS between 21z-01z. Otherwise,
CIGS should trend toward MVFR by 00z at PBG/BTV/MPV and EFK
with some intervals of IFR conditions likely between 02z-08z
tonight. The IFR cigs should be only 2 to 6 hours at most sites
with conditions improving by sunrise on Saturday to MVFR and
mostly VFR by 15z. South winds become north/northwest 5 to 15
knots with some localized higher gusts on Saturday morning
expected. Visibilities stay mostly in the VFR category but fall
into MVFR in the heavier shower activity this aftn/evening.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR. Definite SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Boyd
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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