459
FXUS61 KBTV 261913
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
313 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 313 PM EDT Friday...
Severe thunderstorm watch #397 until 01 UTC for Rutland, Windsor,
Addison, and Orange counties in VT, for the potential for 1 inch
hail and localized wind gusts up to 60 mph.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 313 PM EDT Friday...
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will exit our forecast
area by 9 PM this evening with patchy fog developing overnight.
2. Heat and humidity will gradually build early next week. A
round of showers and thunderstorms may occur late Tuesday into
Wednesday, followed by additional chances of thunderstorms later in
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 313 PM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor imagery shows potent s/w
energy crossing northern NY/VT this aftn, while left front quad of
100 knot jet is angling toward southern VT and helping to enhanced
deep ulvl divergence over Rutland/Windsor Counties. However,
abundant cloud cover has kept temps mostly in the mid 60s to lower
70s today with dwpts upper 50s to lower 60s, creating sfc based CAPE
values in the 500-1200 J/kg. Some breaks are evident in the latest
GOES-19 satellite imagery over central/southern VT, ahead of broken
line of developing convection over northern NY. The 0-6km effective
shear is 35 to 45 knots, mostly driven off the strengthening 3-6km
wind fields acrs central/southern VT. Given the above scenario,
thinking dynamically driven showers and thunderstorms are likely
with some stronger storms capable of localized wind gusts up to 60
mph, 1 inch hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Highest
probability of stronger convection will be along and south of a SLK
to MPV line through 7 PM this evening, and by 9 PM activity should
be exiting our fa.
As strong subsidence builds acrs our cwa tonight per latest water
vapor trends areas of clearing should develop with a combination of
low level stratus and fog likely, especially given recent rainfall
and saturated soils. Difficult challenge is areal coverage and what
areas see stratus vs fog, but general idea of patchy dense fog looks
good. Lows mostly in the 50s to near 60F.
On Sat widely scattered trrn driven showers and embedded storms are
expected over the northern Dacks and parts of the central/northern
Greens. Soundings indicate a small sliver of instability with CAPE
values btwn 400-800 J/kg, but column is very dry btwn 800-500mb,
which wl limit areal coverage of convection. The idea of garden
variety activity is expected, given the lack of moisture/instability
and shear on Sat. For Sunday 1016mb high pres noses into our cwa
with drier air and less instability/moisture, which should result in
mostly dry conditions. Still cannot completely rule out an isolated
shower or two over the northern mtns, but probability and coverage
wl be limited. Highs warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s with
comfortable humidity values.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Summertime heat and humidity is expected to build for
the beginning of next week, with high pressure centered over the
Ohio Valley slowly nudging into the region. High temperatures look
to climb into the upper 80s into the 90s throughout the week, with
the warmest conditions expected towards the end of upcoming week.
There is still some uncertainty as to the exact extent of the heat
earlier in the week as confidence is increasing in the potential for
a system along the periphery of the ridge Tuesday into Wednesday
bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. The air
mass will be favorable in regards to heavy rain potential with PWAT
surging well over 2 inches, but trends will still need to be
monitored as we head into next week. Showers and cloud cover could
impact how warm temperatures are able to climb. Thursday looks to
have greater heat impacts given increased humidity, although there
is still some uncertainty in the exact extent of the heat. With the
warmth expected ahead, it is good to remember to stay hydrate and
take frequent breaks if working outdoors. As we head throughout the
week, the increased humidity will allow for additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions continue
amidst a broad area of clouds and pockets of showers. These
showers with embedded thunderstorms are currently most
widespread in a narrow corridor of northern New York just north
of both SLK and PBG and south of MSS. Think that both these
sites will see a combination of VCTS and TSRA this morning, but
it was hard to feel confident enough to show a direct hit.
Beyond the next four hours, the thunderstorm threat which could
include gusty winds and small hail will shift more prominently
into the Champlain Valley and then central Vermont.
Aside from brief intervals of LIFR early this morning and
periods of heavier rain, conditions for much of the next 6 to 12
hours are expected to trend VFR as drier mid-level air moves
into the airspace. Light winds will trend westerly this
afternoon mainly under 10 knots aside from any thunderstorm wind
gusts, then diminish towards 00Z.
Following the showers and thunderstorms, the light winds and
clearing skies will support quick development of fog tonight.
Have added mention of BR given strong support from model
guidance and pattern recognition. Details on sites that are more
likely to see FG in relation to footprints of rain this
afternoon will need to be reassessed in future TAF packages.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Taber
AVIATION...Kremer
|
