974
FXUS61 KBTV 180702
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
202 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will develop late this afternoon and then
wind down this evening. Our warming trend continues Thursday
into Friday as a strong system moves to our north. This will
bring gusty winds and widespread rain late Thursday and Thursday
night. A strong cold front will change rain over to snow on
Friday and will bring more gusty winds. Colder conditions will
continue into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 156 PM EST Wednesday...Our first round of light precipitation
is pushing eastward across VT early this afternoon. This has mostly
fallen as virga due to dry air at the surface, though we are finally
seeing some snowflakes via webcams along the international border.
For the most part, the main impact from this leading band of
precipitation will be to moisten the atmosphere for additional
shower development later today. The increased moisture and some
convergence along a weak surface trough/frontal boundary means some
of the showers could be briefly heavy, especially in the eastern St
Lawrence Valley and into the Adirondacks. Winds will turn to the
west as this feature moves from west to east through the late
afternoon/evening hours. Colder and drier air will eventually spread
into the area tonight, ending showers, thinning cloud cover, and
allowing temperatures to drop into the teens to low 20s. Flow will
start to shift back to the east late tonight/early Thursday morning,
so temperatures may start to rise toward daybreak, especially in the
St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys, along with the higher summits.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 156 PM EST Wednesday...Wind Advisory has been issued from Noon
on Thursday until 7 AM Friday for portions of northern New York and
the northern Champlain Valley for gusts 45 to 55 mph and the
potential for isolated to scattered power outages.
Still anticipating an active period of weather Thursday aftn thru
Friday with gusty winds, changing temps, and locally heavy rainfall.
Little change has been noted in the 12z guidance with development of
full latitude mid/upper lvl trof acrs the central Plains on Thursday
with developing 986mb low pres near western Great Lakes. This highly
amplified pattern wl advect deep moisture and very warm temps into
our cwa late Thursday into early Friday on a strengthening low level
wind field. Latest 12z guidance has been slightly stronger with the
progged 850mb jet of 70 to 85 knots developing ahead of approaching
cold frnt on Thurs night. The difficult fcst challenge is how much
of these winds mix to the sfc, as soundings continue to show a
shallow/stable bl conditions during peak winds, caused by snow pack
and developing rainfall. However, latest RAP shows 51 knots and the
HRRR indicates 54 knots at 500 feet above ground level at Malone at
05z Friday, suggesting the potential for gusts up to 55 mph. In
addition, HREF shows 80 to 100% probability of wind gusts >45 mph
acrs the northern Dacks and parts of the northern CPV on Thursday
evening, with a 40 to 60% probability of wind gusts >60 mph,
suggesting the potential need for a high wind warning. The HREF mean
wind gusts are mainly in the 50 to 60 mph with just a small area of
>60 mph along the Route 11 corridor. For now have issued wind
advisory, but if trends continue part of the advisory may need to be
upgraded. Elsewhere, brisk south to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph
with gusts 35 to 45 mph are possible, especially exposed midslopes
and favorable areas with trrn alignment.
Temps wl be on a roller coaster ride over the next 24 to 48 hours
with strong 925mb to 850mb waa developing on Thursday. NAM/NAM3KM
still showing 925mb temps btwn 8-10C on downslope side of the
northern Dacks on Thurs aftn, supporting highs near 50. Meanwhile,
cool northeast flow may develop down the SLV, keeping Massena in the
mid 30s to lower 40s for most of the day. In addition, temps wl
remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s east of the Greens on Thursday,
as llvl caa remains trapped in the deeper/protected valleys. As
southerly flow strengthens on Thurs night, temps wl remain
steady or rise into the 40s to near 50F overnight into Friday.
Expect temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s by 12z Friday, acrs
the CPV and parts of VT, associated with warm southerly flow
ahead of approaching cold frnt. As frnt moves from west to east
acrs our cwa on Friday, expect temps to drop 10 to 15 degrees in
1 to 2 hours under strong llvl caa. The potential for a flash
freeze is slightly less likely attm, due to the arctic surge
lagging by 3 to 6 hours. A few inches of snowfall is possible
above 1200 feet on Friday/Friday evening.
A band of moderate to locally heavy rainfall is likely associated
with fropa on Friday morning. PW values are near 1.0 or 200 to 300%
of normal, mid/upper lvl trof is becoming negatively tilted, and
llvl jet wl help to enhance moisture advection along the boundary.
However, given strong 925mb to 850mb wind fields, anticipate some
downslope shadowing acrs the northern Dacks. Rainfall generally in
the 0.50 to 1.25 range with localized higher amounts possible in the
Greens. See hydro section below for additional details.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 201 AM EST Thursday...For Saturday night into Sunday, a quick
upper low and attendant surface low will translate east across
Quebec Province. Fast southwesterly flow aloft will keep much of the
activity northwards, but we`ll like see at least some scattered
precipitation. We`ll be in the "warm sector" of the low, and so
temperatures will climb above freezing on Sunday, but it should only
be warm enough that any rain will mainly be below 1000 ft in
Vermont. The cold front slides southeast midday, and warm air will
quickly displace above freezing temperatures as a 1030+ surface high
noses in. This will likely make for a breezy Sunday night with gusts
25 to 35 mph well supported by forecast soundings and probabilistic
data like the EPS.
We`ll remain at the fringes of very warm air to our south and
modestly cool conditions to our north. It appears our medium to long
range forecast will be typified by systems constantly swinging in
and out with brief warm intrusions followed by a switch back to very
cool.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Conditions are a mix of VFR and MVFR with
patchy clouds mainly in the Northeast Kingdom and northern New York.
Some guidance even suggests that skies clear enough and winds
slacken enough along a surface trough that fog may even try to
develop in favored basins like KSLK and KMPV. Winds at 500 ft agl
are likely to be about 15-20 knots, though, and high clouds are
expected to move overhead pretty quickly. Forecast confidence is
low, but did at least highlight a TEMPO for each. Otherwise, the
main story will be increasing south flow at the surface, and
especially at 2000 ft agl after about 14z. Surface winds will like
pick up to 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots likely, and
locally to 30 knots at KBTV. Winds at 2000 ft will accelerate to 55
to 65 knots out of the south-southwest, and these winds peak even
higher near mountain summits, which will produce significant LLWS or
severe turbulence that could prove very hazardous to general
aviation. Beyond 00z, we scattered rain will move in from the south,
but mainly after 06z Friday, in addition to lowering ceilings.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA, Chance
SN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Sharp rises on streams and rivers are anticipated on Friday into
Friday night associated with warm temperatures, snow melt, and
moderate rainfall. Rainfall of 0.50 to 1.25 is expected with snow
melt adding another 0.75 to 1.25 inches into the river basins. Snow
core analysis near Mt Mansfield indicated at 3000 feet snow depths
were 53 to 58 inches with 12 to 14 inches of water, while at 1550
feet snow depths were 22 to 30 inches with 5 to 7 inches of water.
The rivers with greatest potential to reach action stage, given
expected rainfall and snow melt are the Ausable, Mad, and Otter
Creek on Friday afternoon and evening.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 AM EST Friday for VTZ001-
002-005.
NY...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 AM EST Friday for
NYZ027>031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
HYDROLOGY...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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