213
FXUS61 KBTV 120659
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
259 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 231 PM EDT Saturday...
Chances for gusty winds are rising especially for the St
Lawrence Valley and along the Highway 11 corridor of northern
New York on Monday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 234 AM EDT Sunday...
1. Dry conditions continue today before a warm front moves
through the region tonight bringing widespread rainfall,
potentially gusty winds Monday, then a series of fronts moving
through bringing multiple rounds of showers and a few
thunderstorms.
2. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected
next week, along with several chances for precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 234 AM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Our next storm system is currently moving into
the Great Lakes region. It`s warm front will begin impacting
northern New York bringing some showers this afternoon before
tracking northeast spreading rain across the rest of northern
New York and Vermont. Dry conditions today and southerly flow
will help temperatures warm into the 50s by the afternoon.
Tonight, a strong low level jet will move into the region
coincident with precipitation. With rain falling, strong wind
gusts are less likely outside of the peaks. One important
change in model output has been for a northerly shift in the
initial portion of the low level jet with 35-65kt speeds
projected south of the Canadian border and 70+kts north of the
St Lawrence River in Canada. This has a couple of implications:
the first being that thunderstorm chances will be lower and
limited to around close to the Canadian border of northern New
York and decrease in wind threat overnight. The period of
concern has shifted to 8AM to 2PM Monday where we will be in the
warm sector of this large system and continued strong SW winds
around 45-55kts at 850mph. With precipitation decreasing and
flow aligning with the St Lawrence Valley, have nudged wind
gusts up to around 40mph for a broad swath of northern New York
and the northern Champlain Valley. Rainfall amounts have shifted
with lljet changes and have increased in general. Now looking at
around 0.25" in the western Champlain Valley where shadowing
will be most pronounced and 0.4-0.75 for other broad valley
locations and around 1" for the southern St Lawrence Valley
across the Adirondacks and the Greens into portions of
northeast Vermont.
The relative cold front moves through monday night into Tuesday
with chances of thunderstorms expected. The front itself is
favored to elongate over the region rather than push sharply
through resulting in the storm track to stagnate over northern
New York and Vermont. This will set up daily chances of showers
that are discussed below. QPF through Tuesday night will
generally range from 0.5-1.5" across the region with lowest
amounts in the Champlain Valley and southern Vermont. Peaks
could see around 2" in this time period. Additional thunderstorm
chances are possible Wednesday as energy rides along the
boundary and isentropic lift increasing shower chances area-
wide.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The large scale pattern for next week continues to
support zonal flow aloft across our region, bringing a few continued
chances for showers throughout next week. A low level boundary looks
to remain situated near the International Border, which will have a
large influence on temperatures and precipitation for the middle of
next week. The current temperature forecast continues to support
unseasonably warm temperatures for the middle of the week, with
daytime high temperatures climbing into the upper 60s and 70s
Thursday, with a few locations possibly nearing 80F. In comparison,
average high temperatures of this time of year and generally in the
low to mid 50s. While there will be several chances for
precipitation, it looks to be quite showery and scattered in nature,
with a few rumbles of thunder possible. As always, there is low
confidence is the exact timing of any of these features at this time
range, so trends will need to be monitored as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected to continue at all
terminals for a majority of the forecast period, with mostly clear
skies present across the region. A warm front will approach the
region towards 00Z, bringing widespread precipitation and lower
ceilings. Winds are currently light and variable and/or calm across
the region, and will continue through most of the morning before
becoming more southerly, although generally less than 10 knots for
most of the afternoon. Winds are expected to increase after 00Z,
with some gusts in excess of 20 knots possible. Some LLWS is
expected to develop towards the end of the forecast period as a low
level jet moves overhead, especially across northern New York
terminals.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Boyd
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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