905
FXUS61 KBTV 070623
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
223 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 145 AM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 145 AM EDT Sunday...
1. Showers continue this morning before tapering off with
clearing skies this afternoon and evening. Ridging begins to build
into the region tonight into the start of next week with warm and
drying conditions.
2. Warm, humid conditions could pose heat risk concerns along
with chances for showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 145 AM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Nearly geostrophic cyclonic flow around an occluding
upper low over southern Quebec will keep showers rotating through
the region early this morning into early this afternoon. Persistent
showers on the southern flank of the low combined with decent pwats
to an inch, and rain rates to a quarter inch an hour at times, will
bring an additional quarter to half an inch of rain to the
region today, mainly near the International Border and the higher
terrain. The low will pivot southwards this morning as high
pressure across the Great Lakes increases the northerly steering
flow aloft. As the lows sinks south, a band of light to
moderate showers will develop near the International Border and
slide south. Shower chances with this band are between 75-100%
generally between 9 AM and 3 PM from north to south. Areas in
the Northeast Kingdom and the northern Champlain Valley will
likely stay under light shower and mist activity for several
hours before the band shifts south. Northerly winds may gust up
to 20 to 25 MPH in the Champlain Valley and eastern Vermont as
the low pivots south with a continued tighter pressure gradient.
Northerly flow will advect cooler air from the north behind the
rain band with highs today 10 degrees cooler than yesterday
into the mid to upper 60s. Skies will quickly begin to clear as
rainfall tapers off by mid to late afternoon. High pressure from
the west will help trends winds towards calm with clearing
skies under light north northeast flow aloft. Northeast flow in
the St. Lawrence Valley with cooling temperatures may lead to
patchy fog along the river for locations such as Massena and
Ogdensburg tonight. Similarly, where flow is lighter in the
protected valleys, the NEK may also experience some patchy fog.
Elsewhere light flow aloft should keep fog chances low.
Into the work week, mid and upper level ridging will build in from
the west through at least Wednesday. Ridging will support increasing
temperatures and dry conditions for early to mid next week. 925mb
temperatures in the latest ensembles are progged to be around 20C,
supporting surface temperatures in the 80s both Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures will steadily climb each day Monday into Tuesday with
each seeing daytime highs a degree or two warmer than the last.
Dewpoints Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s, leading to
comfortable humidity values and generally cool overnight lows in the
mid to upper 50s as well.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Forecast conditions from Wednesday onwards remains
unchanged. As has been the weather pattern the last several days, a
high amplitude ridge will bring some warm to hot temperatures. Then,
a trough on its northern periphery will get shunted southeast. Of
all these types of systems, this will be the weakest in terms of
baroclinicity. Rain will overspread the region late Wednesday into
Thursday as the weak surface low tracks off the Maine Coast.
However, unlike the last several occasions, the ridge doesn`t just
reamplify to our west, but begins to angle east as a longwave trough
takes its place. Given its breadth, the large upper low positioned
near the Hudson Bay will be slow to move. Deep southwesterly flow
with a connection to the Gulf will let increasing warmth and
humidity spill into the region. There will be a some bifurcation of
instability as surface high pressure across the Canadian Maritimes
drives in more stable southeasterly flow. So any thunder chances
will be greatest for northern New York. With temperatures in the
upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints climbing into the 60s, we`ll
have the potential to observe heat indices close Heat Advisory
thresholds. We`ve had heat this year, but this will be the first
with increased humidity. So heat-health concerns will be present
with the probability of reaching the Major (Level 3 of 4) category
around 50-70% across lower elevations.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Rain is present over the region with mainly VFR
or MVFR conditions, though there are patches of IFR noted near KSLK
and KEFK. Conditions will probably hold steady for the next 2-4
hours as rain shifts east, and then as the surface low moves farther
southeast from Vermont, winds will become west to northwest at 5-11
kts with some gusts 16-20 kts. At 2000 ft agl west-northwest winds
remain about 35-40 knots, which will cause pockets of LLWS over
KEFK and KMPV for the next few hours. Then from about 10z-18z,
rain will wrap around the surface low back southwards. Ceilings
will lower to 700-2100 ft agl, with IFR ceilings likely at KSLK
and KEFK, but also possible at KBTV. Behind this push of rain,
winds will become northerly, and then ceilings will quickly
improve behind rain. After 00z, winds will begin to decrease
with skies trending clear. The only thing will be a
northeasterly low-level jet with winds at 2000 ft agl around
35-40 knots, which will produce LLWS at KEFK and perhaps KMPV.
These winds will arc south beyond 06z Monday.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
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