450
FXUS61 KBTV 082357
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
657 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 115 PM EST Sunday...

No significant changes were made with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 115 PM EST Sunday...

1. Seasonable and unsettled weather is expected through the
first half of this week with rounds of showers.

2. Unsettled weather is expected to continue late next week
into the weekend, with temperatures trending cooler this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 115 PM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A dry afternoon is expected today as low pressure shifts
eastward into the Canadian Maritimes, and high pressure over the
Mississippi River Valley builds into the northeastern U.S.
Seasonable temperatures currently in the mid 40s to lower 50s are
expected to fall as we head into the overnight hours, dropping to
the mid 30s to lower 40s by early Monday morning, which is
relatively mild for this time of year. West-northwesterly winds will
decrease into the overnight as well, though westerly gusts may
continue at higher elevations with a modest low level jet overhead.
Precipitation chances also increase again this evening and tonight
as we remain under the influence of a large upper level low rotating
over eastern Canada. The first shortwave it sends our way will move
overhead tonight and Monday. Much like our recent round of
precipitation, most of the shower activity will fall as rain, with
some light snow possible across the higher terrain and portions of
the Adirondacks/Northeast Kingdom, especially tonight. Any snow
accumulation will be minimal below 2500 ft. Rain will be the name of
the game on Monday with highs in the 40s and lower 50s again.
Precipitation amounts are expected to be up to 0.20" at most,
highest in the northern Greens. Winds could also be slightly breezy
again Monday out of the northwest, but not overly impactful. After
brief ridging Monday night and lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, the
next shortwave should strike on Tuesday, though precipitation
amounts are expected to be lighter, up to 0.15" at most. Once again,
Tuesday`s seasonable highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s will limit
much snow during the day, then overnight lows in the upper 20s and
30s could allow for some light snow at higher elevations and cold
spots. Tuesday`s winds will be out of the southwest and slightly
breezy, but again not overly impactful. On Wednesday, we`ll be
drying out with highs in the 40s to mid 50s and winds out of the
west-northwest again.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A period of unsettled weather looks to continue late
next week into the weekend, with additional chances for
precipitation expected. A lage-scale trough is expected to develop
across the eastern CONUS, with a developing surface low centered
over the Ohio Valley, with a strengthening secondary low expected to
develop and move through the Mid-Atlantic towards the New England
Coast. Temperatures look to trend colder towards the weekend, with
highs only in the 30s and low 40s. Model guidance continues to
struggle with the expected low track, which will greatly influence
how much precipitation northern New York and Vermont can expect, as
well as precipitation type. Guidance is still rather split on whether
the low will be suppressed far enough south that we miss out or if it
will bring widespread precipitation to the region, but trends
generally support a wetter solution although there is still even
more uncertainty regarding the expected precipitation type. The
latest guidance supports the higher terrain seeing their first
significant snowfall of the season, while valley locations may
remain as all rain this weekend. With this system still several days
out, model outcomes are likely to change, with details becoming
clearer over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Ceilings are trending back towards MVFR
as the next round of showers approach the region. Ceilings are
expected to lower between 1500 and 2500 ft AGL for the most
part, although there is some potential for even lower ceilings
and possible IFR conditions at KSLK. MVFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Chances of pcpn are expected from 00-06z then 10-16z with some
mountain -shra thereafter. Winds are becoming light tonight but
will shift to the WNW aft 12-16z Mon with 7-10kts G20kts.


Outlook...

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Patchy BR.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Veterans Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Storm
AVIATION...SLW