869
FXUS61 KBTV 290513
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
113 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will swing through the region this afternoon and
evening which will bring an end to our rain chances with
increasing sunshine and seasonal weather expected on Sunday. A
significant warm up is expected Monday as highs climb into the
mid 80s to lower 90s but these temperatures will be short-lived
as another cold front moves through the region on Tuesday.
Several round of rain and thunderstorms will be possible late
Monday and again on Tuesday, a few potentially producing heavy
rainfall. Conditions will then trend cooler for the latter half
of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1013 PM EDT Saturday...Forecast remains on track. Spotty
isolated shower chances will continue across northern Vermont
through the overnight as a weak cold front passes through. The
main area of showers will be in Rutland County as a line of
light to moderate showers is pushing east out of New York. Some
of these showers have embedded rumbles of thunder, but most of
the lightning activity should stay south of the Rutland County
border. These showers will track east throughout the overnight.
Excerpt of Previous Discussion...Water vapor imagery shows a
significant dry layer over northern New York and beginning to
impinge across northern Vermont. Beneath it, convection has
remained shallow and has been unable to develop. Farther south,
sufficient moisture and better instability are allowing
thunderstorms just east of Lake Ontario and in Pennsylvania.
This airmass will gradually lift east- northeast towards
Vermont, but flow will continue to back across Vermont to
reinforce the maritime air mass. This will erode instability
fairly quickly as the line approaches. There will only be a
narrow tongue of instability nosing up the Taconics into the far
southern Champlain Valley. Any thunderstorm that can hold its
own beneath a moderately favorable upper level pattern may still
produce a strong storm and perhaps a severe storm in far
southern Vermont. Everything up north will remain strictly
garden variety.
Tonight, the front will cross east in piecemeal fashion. There`s a
dewpoint boundary and wind shift that occurs near midnight, and a
few showers could develop along the international border and amble
into north-central Vermont and the NEK later overnight. Otherwise,
the front washed out. So we should remain somewhat warm in the mid
50s to mid 60s. Some fog will be possible in eastern Vermont
wherever the front fails to cross.
Sunday will be fantastic. Mid 70s to mid 80s, relatively comfortable
air, and a steady breeze with ample Sun. No notes here!
Sunday night, high pressure will start sliding east, but it
looks like enough time will be present before south winds
develop towards dawn that temperatures should quickly fall into
the 50s to around 60. Near Lake Champlain may remain warm now
that surface waters are much warmer in the lower 60s. Our
perennial cold spot at the Adirondack Airport appears likely to
fall into the upper 40s. Given the rain and good radiational
cooling, fog across our river valleys is expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...Ridging builds in for Monday and surface
high pressure centered near Bermuda will be the main influencer of
the weather. The associated southwest flow will advect much warmer
and gradually more humid air into the region. High temperatures will
be in the mid 80s to low 90s but thankfully the highest humidity
will be delayed until Tuesday. Dew points should remain in the low
to mid 60s. A prefrontal trough moves through Monday night into
Tuesday morning and it will set off a round of convection. There
should be some embedded thunderstorms but the instability during
this event looks to be elevated. Another round of showers and storms
is expected in the afternoon and there is the potential for stronger
storms if there can be clearing and destabilization before it
arrives. Dew points should already be in the low 70s. However, there
is no well-defined surface front/convergence, the mid level lapse
rates will be relatively shallow and resemble a moist adiabatic
profile, and there will likely be some clouds and showers around to
prevent efficient destabilization. Despite these inhibiting factors,
there will be plenty of shear and with the warm sector already in
place, it would probably not take much in the way of heating to
cause a stronger storm or two. The cooler and drier air gradually
filters in Tuesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...A deep trough pushes into the region for
the middle of the week, bringing cooler conditions. A shortwave
pivots around this feature on Thursday and brings a pocket of
anomalously cold air aloft. The combination of the synoptic forcing
and solar heating on Thursday looks to cause widespread shower
development. The showers should diminish Thursday night as the
shortwave passes to the east and the diurnal heating ends. Surface
high pressure builds in for Friday and and looks to bring pleasant
weather for the start of the holiday weekend. Temperatures aloft
will warm pretty quickly but surface temperatures should still be
around or slightly below climatological normals. The humidity will
also remain low, with forecast dew points in the 50s for most
places. Shower chances increase for the latter part of the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...A surface cold front continues to push
across the North Country this morning with the front just
through KPBG as they had an abrupt wind direction change to the
northwest. In general, winds will veer from south to
west/northwest through 12Z as the cold front continues to move
through the region. Pockets of MFVR ceilings are expected to
develop across KSLK but brief MVFR conditions may also be
possible at KMPV and KEFK between 8Z and 16Z. The weather today
will be quiet overall with west winds of less than 10 knots but
it looks like widespread fog is on the table late tonight into
Monday morning. Given the latest guidance, we have already begun
to suggest VLIFR fog at KSLK and KEFK at 5Z with KRUT and KMPV
likely to go down after 6Z.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Danzig/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Boyd
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