162
FXUS61 KBTV 231851
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
251 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to continue throughout the
afternoon, with some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

1. Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue
across the region this afternoon, with some isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms possible.

2. Lingering showers will continue into the start of the week
under broad cyclonic flow, with drier weather returning towards the
middle of the week.

3. Showers with some thunderstorm potential to end the week
will be followed by another tranquil period over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Gusty showers continue to bubble up across the region
this afternoon as a frontal boundary continues to move through the
region. Some more embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop as
the afternoon progresses, especially with clearing skies allowing
for more instability over the next few hours. CAPE values are
expected to reach around 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon, which will
help with the thunderstorm development, along with modest lapse
rates and shear. SPC continues to show the entire forecast area in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather this afternoon with the idea that a
few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with
possible hail and strong winds as the primary threats. Storms looks
to be progressive, limiting any hydro concerns at this time,
especially given the dry weather the last few days. The current
forecast still shows about 0.20 to 0.50 inches across much of the
area, with lower totals expected across much of the Northeast
Kingdom and some higher amounts possible within any thunderstorms
that develop. Shower activity will gradually wane through this
evening as the frontal boundary exits the region, although some
showers may linger overnight, especially across northern New York.
Some clearing may be possible tonight behind the system, which may
lead to some fog/mist developing overnight, especially in locations
that see rainfall today as there will be plenty of moisture,
although winds may be enough to limit this potential. Overnight lows
are expected to generally be in the upper 40s and 50s tonight, with
temperatures near Lake Champlain near 60.

KEY MESSAGE 2: For the start of the week, the region will remain in
broad cyclonic flow, will will allow for linger showers on Monday
and Tuesday, especially across the higher terrain as the upper level
low gradually shifts away from the region. This cyclonic flow will
also lead to some lake effect showers off Lake Ontario, with
increased shower chances expected across northern New York Monday
into Tuesday. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs only
climbing into the 70s, with some locations in the Adirondacks
struggling to climb out of the upper 60s. A brief period of ridging
looks to build into the region for Wednesday, bringing some drier
weather conditions for the middle of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A broad upper-level trough remains on track to progress
into the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, putting us in a
favorable position for showers and thunderstorms. The probability of
thunderstorms compared to 24 hours ago has trended quite a bit
higher for this timeframe, with the latest NBM 6 hour thunder
chances (2 PM to 8 PM) now in the 25 to 32% range across our region.
Relatedly, forecast temperatures have ticked up with highs favored
to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s amidst seasonably humid conditions
with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s during peak heating. Generally
the potential for stronger storms is low but appears to be slightly
elevated in northern New York relative to Vermont where both CAPE
and shear will likely be somewhat higher.

With a surface low and associated trough slow to push eastward,
shower chances will continue through Thursday night into Friday
morning, which makes the convective chances for Friday questionable.
However, signals for higher instability relative to Thursday,
especially in Vermont, still exists in many pieces of ensemble
guidance. The large scale pattern with continued height falls and
cold front still to our west suggests scattered showers and
thunderstorms are a good bet for Friday afternoon, especially if
there is enough surface heating. Given convective nature of a lot of
the rain, rainfall amounts will likely be highly variable, but
overall the potential for excessive rain is minimal at this time
without particularly rich moisture. 48 hour probabilities of
rainfall exceeding an inch per latest NBM are only as high as 22%
and mainly under 10% in our region.

As the system`s low pressure area occludes near Hudson Bay, a ridge
of high pressure will build in to the south and expand across the
northeastern US by Saturday morning, providing us with low humidity
and seasonable conditions for the weekend. Perhaps by the end of the
weekend the gyre will be forced southward and precipitation chances
increase, but the predictability of such a scenario is low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings are present with
cloud bases scattered to broken in the 2000 to 3000 foot range.
Scattered showers are arranged in relatively narrow strips oriented
from south to north, and will gradually translate eastward through
the next six to eight hours or so. Probabilities of thunder
associated with these showers generally will peak in the 20Z to 23Z
period. Given relatively low chances/lack of thunderstorms currently
to track, have used PROB30 groups during intervals when convective
chances are highest. At MPV, instability is expected to be low
enough to use only SHRA rather than TSRA in PROB30 groups. Showers
will result in perhaps brief IFR visibilities with direct hits along
with wind gusts exceeding 25 knots. Otherwise, conditions will tend
to be VFR through most of the period. After 00Z, there will be
limited potential for fog with moderate southerly/southwesterly
winds off the deck. Greatest potential appears to be at MPV with
skies clearing following evening showers if surface winds becoming
calm, but southerly flow may be sufficient to keep the boundary
layer somewhat mixed overnight. Relatively light surface winds at
all terminals should increase substantially following sunrise with
diurnally driven gusts near 20 knots favored at selected terminals
including SLK and BTV.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Kremer
AVIATION...Kutikoff