201
FXUS61 KBTV 230725
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
325 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 323 AM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes to the current forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 323 AM EDT Sunday...
1. Frontal system crosses our area today bringing showers with
embedded thunderstorms to the region.
2. Showers continue into Monday as low pressure lags behind
departing frontal system, leaving cyclonic flow in place.
3. Showery end to the week before trending drier over the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 323 AM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers upstream across western New York will
lift northeastward into our region today as a surface frontal
system will move across our area. Morning showers and convection
may be an inhibiting factor for possible additional convection
this afternoon. Current forecast is for maximum temperatures to
reach the 70s areawide this afternoon. These temperatures along
with dewpoints into the upper 50s to lower 60s will lead to CAPE
around 500-1000 J/kg by the afternoon. Modest mid level lapse
rates along with some surface based instability will mean we
will have to monitor for some possible severe storms this
afternoon. CAMS still handling the timing of convection a bit
differently today, and morning convection will continue to be a
possible limiting factor to prevent storms from being too
strong. Several rounds of showers, but should mostly be
scattered so rainfall totals should not be too hefty, generally
half an inch or less except in locations that may have multiple
rounds of thunderstorms today.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Although surface fronts cross our area today,
the parent low pressure system will linger behind it, and make
it`s way north of our region during the day Monday. Upper level
low pressure system will also be crossing our region Monday into
Tuesday. This will lead to continued light rain showers, though
less convective threat. Still mentioning slight chance for
thunderstorms during the afternoon, though surface instability
looks less impressive on Monday. Flow will also become more
southwesterly and there will be noticeable influence off Lake
Ontario as showers become more concentrated in the St Lawrence
valley on Monday night into Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGE 3: An upper-level trough builds in on Thursday and
Friday, bringing the chance for some showers. A weak northern-
stream surface low should track from west to east out of the
Great Lakes Region and into Quebec during this time, amplifying
the showers. Model guidance has trended weaker and more out to
sea for any secondary low that tries to develop on Friday,
keeping the heaviest rain southeast of the region and causing
Saturday to trend drier. During that period, GEFS/EPS/CMCE
combined probabilities of more than a half inch of rain are down
below 25 percent. Broad upper troughing and associated cyclonic
flow should remain over the weekend, keeping temperatures on
the cooler side, but conditions should remain mostly dry.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Ceilings will lower a bit as the night
continues, especially across southern and eastern Vermont. MPV
should be predominately MVFR, with a few periods of IFR
possible. Intervals of MVFR and VFR are likely at RUT and
possibly EFK. Elsewhere, VFR ceilings are expected to continue.
Ceilings will rise during the day today and they should reach
VFR everywhere except MPV by mid-morning. Ceilings at MPV should
eventually rise to VFR, but it could take until evening.
Passing showers are expected during the day and this evening,
with a brief period of steady rain expected across much of
northern New York this morning. These showers will mostly drop
the visibility to low VFR and MVFR, but brief periods of IFR are
possible in the heaviest showers. Thunder is also expected in
the heaviest showers, along with strong erratic winds. The
showers should mostly be done by midnight, and dry conditions
are expected for the rest of the night. Winds will be southerly
during this period, with gusts in the 10-20 KT range during the
day, decreasing in the evening. The strongest gusts are expected
at BTV and PBG. LLWS is possible at MSS this morning for a
couple hours.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Neiles
AVIATION...Myskowski
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