759
FXUS61 KBTV 031906
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
206 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 204 PM EST Tuesday...
No significant changes made.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 204 PM EST Tuesday...
1. Near record high temperatures are expected on Wednesday with
mostly sunny conditions and some localized fire weather concerns.
2. A weak cold front will produce scattered showers on
Thursday, but precipitation amounts will be light with highest
amounts in the mountains.
3. Repeated chances for showers this weekend and early next
week with temperatures gradually decreasing towards seasonal levels.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 204 PM EST Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Sfc analysis shows a warm frnt draped along the
International Border this aftn with some scattered rain showers acrs
northern NY into central/northern VT. Rainfall amounts have been
<0.10" thru 2 PM. Warm frnt wl lift north of cwa this evening with
latest RAP ua showing building mid/upper lvl ridge over the Ohio
Valley into western PA. GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor imagery
indicates well defined dry slot with strong subsidence, which
is progged to be acrs our fa on Weds, resulting in partly to
mostly sunny skies. This combined with progged 925mb temps btwn
15-18C with south/southwest downslope flow wl support highs
upper 60s to mid 70s with a few warmer valleys reaching the
upper 70s possible. The localized fire weather concerns would be
acrs the Champlain Valley and northern slopes of the Dacks,
where gusts of 15 to 20 mph and minimal humidity values will
drop btwn 35 and 45%. Elsewhere, winds will be lighter east of
the Green and humidities slightly higher.
A very warm night is anticipated on Weds night, with southerly flow
and increasing clouds ahead of our approaching cold frnt. Based on
sounding analysis feel some deeper/protected valleys east of the
Greens may decouple, resulting in localized cooler spots and
supporting a wide range in temps. Similar type idea is anticipated
in the valleys of the dacks too. Lows generally in the upper 30s to
mid/upper 50s, warmest in the CPV and downslope areas of the
northern Dacks near Malone. 925mb winds increase 25-35 knots
overnight with some localized gusts in the trrn up to 40 mph
possible. Still some uncertainty on mixing profiles over the cooler
Lake Champlain waters on Weds night into Thurs for the potential
need of a lake wind advisory. Sounding data at CLCR is very stable
in the bl over the cooler lake waters, resulting in minimal mixing
of stronger winds to the sfc.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Mid/upper lvl trof wl be weakening acrs the
Midwest/western Great Lakes on Thurs, while pre-frontal trof and
associated narrow axis of 700-500mb moisture moves from west to east
acrs our cwa. Given the dampening upper lvl dynamics and out of
phased energy, feel this precip on Thurs wl be another high pops/low
qpf event. In addition, developing southwest flow of 35 to 45 knots
wl produce localized downslope shadowing acrs the CPV, which is
highlighted nicely in the latest GFS precip fields. Pw values with
deep southwest flow surge btwn 1.0 to 1.4" ahead of dampening trof
on Thurs, which are 3 to 4 STD above normal, so thinking everybody
should at least measure precip. QPF amounts wl range from a few
hundredths to a quarter inch over the dacks/parts of the SLV.
Progged 925mb temps btwn 14-12C with more clouds support highs upper
50s to mid/upper 60s depending upon elevation. Thursday night into
Friday is relatively quiet with slowly cooling thermal profiles,
supporting highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s on Friday, which is 5 to
10 degrees above normal for early Nov. The cooler weather, higher
humidities and some precipitation wl help mitigating the fire wx
concerns.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Multi-level closed low pressure over the Great Lakes and
surface low pressure driving northward along the Northeast Coast
this weekend will bring increased chances for precipitation, about
45-75% in Vermont and 25-55% across northern New York Friday night.
Nighttime temperatures will remain well above seasonal normals with
projected lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s with plenty of cloud cover
around. Chances for precipitation decrease on Saturday as surface
forcing pulls northeastward away from the area, but rain shower
chances still remain around 35-65% throughout the day as upper level
troughing stalls overhead. Temperatures will continue to be warmer
than normal values, but should feel cool compared to the week`s
record warmth. Highs Saturday are expected to be only in the 50s and
lower 60s. Upper low pressure will head away from the region
Saturday night, lowering precip chances on Saturday night, and to
follow Sunday daytime chances decrease further in brief weak
ridging. Low temperatures during this period are expected to fall
each night, from the 30s and lower 40s Saturday night down to the
20s and lower 30s early next week, which could mean snow mixing in
with the rain at higher elevations and colder spots. Highs will also
follow a decreasing trend, though more gradual, with temperatures
hitting the mid 40s and 50s each afternoon through early next week
and shower chances each day under cyclonic flow.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Light rain showers continue this
afternoon and evening, primarily north of site KRUT. VFR will
prevail throughout much of the TAF period, although ceilings are
expected to lower over the next few hours, resulting in some
sites seeing MVFR level cigs and visibilities in showers.
Showers will wind down by roughly 00Z-04Z Wednesday. Widespread
VFR conditions anticipated to return around 00Z-08Z Wednesday.
Breezes will be southerly and southwesterly tonight and tomorrow
and are expected to increase, gusting 15-20 knots in the
Champlain Valley by 00Z Wednesday. A low level jet out of the
southwest and west 30-35 knots is likely to cause some LLWS at
the New York sites around 22Z Tuesday onwards.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance RA.
Friday Night: MVFR. Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday Night: MVFR. Chance RA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance RA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures could approach record highs on November 4th, with
the greatest chance of surpassing the record at KMSS.
Site | Record | Forecast
KMSS | 71 (2022) | 75
KBTV | 73 (1982) | 74
KPBG | 72 (1990) | 73
KMPV | 72 (2022) | 73
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Taber/Storm
AVIATION...Storm
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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