115
FXUS61 KBTV 150543
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
143 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday...
A Frost Advisory has been issued for parts of the Adirondacks
and Northeast Kingdom for tonight.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday...
1. Dry and seasonable before a few showers possible Thursday.
2. Cool weather expected this weekend, with mainly dry weather
up until a warm front approaches later in the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure will center overhead tonight,
leading to efficient radiational cooling. Temperatures will drop
into the 40s and 30s away from the shores of Lake Champlain.
Patchy frost is expected in the colder hollows of the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. As the high pushes off to the
east tomorrow, warm air advection will moderate the airmass.
Therefore, highs will mostly be in the 70s for the next couple
days, with lows in the 40s and 50s and no threats of frost. It`s
a great stretch of September weather in store. An area of rain
will attempt to move into the region on Thursday into Thursday
night as isentropic lift occurs on a warm front. EPS members
generally favor a wetter and farther north front while GEFS and
CMCE members generally keep the rain to the south. However, any
precipitation would be light and stratiform, with the wet EPS
probabilities of a half inch of rain generally ranging between
10-20 percent.
KEY MESSAGE 2: After Thursday`s precipitation, ~1025mb surface
high pressure will shift east across Quebec Province. Any
showers will come to an end overnight, and allow for a gorgeous
a Friday. High temperatures will top out in the upper 60s to mid
70s with a steady north breeze. Some high clouds will begin to
stream overhead, and that should keep overnight lows mostly in
the 40s to lower 50s in the broad valleys Friday night.
For Saturday, a warm front will be approaching. So plenty of
high level clouds will be overhead. This will keep temperatures
tamped down. Given the extended timeframe, models diverge on how
quickly precipitation arrives. Channeled flow aloft will be a
fast, 100-120 knots at 250mb just to our north are fairly fast.
Cluster analysis on the LREF depicts more uncertainty on low to
mid level zonal flow. The members with faster 700mb flow feature
an earlier arrival of precipitation with the greater moisture
fluxes. Tracking rain through panels of individual ensemble
members, there are a handful that are very late with the arrival
of rain well into Sunday. Will also note that there are some
members with a solid swath of rain. Digging through NBM
probabilities, there`s about a 30-40% chance of 1+ inch of rain
and a 10-25% chance of 2+ inches of rain focused near or over
the region Saturday into Sunday. The temperature forecast will
be highly dependent on whether the warm front lifts north of the
region or not. If it doesn`t, then we`ll likely continue to see
60s to near 70, and if it does, then we could see temperatures
on the warmer side.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Aviation forecast challenge tonight
will be extent of fog as it develops. Mainly expecting valley
fog, roughly 06z-13z. The most likely sites to see IFR/LIFR in
fog will be MPV/EFK/SLK, but it can`t be ruled out at any
terminal. Have gone with 1/2-1SM in FG at MPV/SLK where
confidence is highest, with 3-6SM in BR at EFK/MSS. SKC skies
tonight give way to increasing mid/high level clouds during the
daylight hours Tuesday. Otherwise, light terrain driven winds
overnight will turn towards S at 5-10 kt after 14z Tue.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ004.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ030-031-034.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Myskowski
AVIATION...Neiles
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