850
FXUS61 KBTV 011125
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
625 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 152 AM EST Sunday...
Rainfall prospects for Tuesday are somewhat higher, and temperatures
for Wednesday have been trended upwards to near record warmth in
the St. Lawrence Valley.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 152 AM EST Sunday...
1. Temperatures becoming warmer heading into November.
2. A cold front will move through the Northeast late this week
bringing breezes and periods of rain possibly Thursday through the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 152 AM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Little in the manner of impactful weather is expected
over the next several days. High pressure will move offshore, and
that will allow warm air to gradually filter into the region under
steady south to southwest flow. This will bring 50s today, and then
60s tomorrow. It`ll still be on the dry side, but winds will
generally be lighter where the lowest humidity values will be.
Nighttime temperatures will also trend warmer, with only cooler
hollows of sheltered valleys east of any mountain slopes below
freezing tonight. There`s still a tilted mid to upper level ridge
that will be positioned to our west through about Tuesday. As it
begins to translate eastwards, depending on the positioning of an
upper vort, the surge of warm, moist advection could become
collocated with marginal synoptic forcing. This would result in an
area of clouds and light rain, mainly along the international border
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Not every model scenario depicts rain,
and so PoPs are mainly at or below 50 percent at this time.
Once the upper ridge is offshore, temperatures will climb into the
mid 60s to lower 70s for Wednesday in response to somewhat tighter
pressure gradients as a surface low tracks over far northern Quebec
Province. A few daily record highs may be in striking distance.
Ushering in the warmth will be south winds gusting around 15-25 mph
with localized observations around 30 mph, especially in the broader
valleys.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Model consensus favors a full meridional trough ejecting
out of the Plains Wednesday night with a cold front passing
through the Northeast between Thursday and Friday. Timing spread
has narrowed a little, but model discrepancies remain on how
fast the high pressure shifts eastward, the timing of the front
itself, and the strength of frontal dynamics. Some models are
stalling the boundary in the vicinity of Vermont streaming ample
moisture across the region while others are more progressive
with flow resulting in more distinct rounds of rainfall. While
the details are sparse, most guidance agrees that there is a
good shot at an extended period of rain chances with the
trailing upper low becoming at least partially cut off. This
would promote lingering shower chances through the weekend
potentially into early next week. The details that are more
predictable are continued warm temperatures under southerly flow
Thursday with some southerly breezes ongoing as well. Beyond
Thursday, temperatures are favored to cool back towards seasonal
averages with coldest air locked well north of the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected to continue
through the forecast period except for SLK through 14Z due to
freezing fog and stratus. This will lift and scatter after
sunrise, but may take a little longer given the decreasing sun
angle. Otherwise, southerly flow picks up this afternoon with
some gusts to around 20kts at MSS and PBG with 12-18kts more
likely at other terminals. High clouds increase overnight and
begin to lower heading into Monday.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance RA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance RA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures could approach record highs on November 4th with
the greatest chance at KMSS.
Record | Forecast
71 (2022) | 71
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Haynes
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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