193
FXUS61 KBTV 091131
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
731 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 218 AM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes to the current forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 218 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. Widespread rain is expected to arrive later this morning and
spread east through tonight as winds increase from the south and
southwest.
2. A drier period is anticipated to end the week as gusty winds
persist Thursday, decreasing toward the weekend.
3. High pressure will bring another stretch of dry and pleasant
weather to start the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 218 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Our next weather system arrives from the Great Lakes mid
to late morning as a warm front draped across New York pushes east.
Isentropic lift along the warm front will lead to widespread light
to moderate stratiform rain on the leading edge of the system late
this morning through the afternoon, moving from the St. Lawrence
Valley eastward into central and northern Vermont. While the system
will be fairly progressive, projected precipitable water values in
the latest model runs reach as high as 1.75-2.25 inches. As rain
turns more showery towards the later afternoon and evening today,
heavy downpours will be possible. Much of central and northern
Vermont are currently in D0 (abnormally dry) to D1 (moderate
drought) levels, so we are not anticipating hydrological issues
from this rainfall. Precipitation totals through early Thursday
morning will be highest across the on northern and western
slopes of the mountains across our forecast area with around
0.50-1.15 inches anticipated. Lower amounts are likely in the
Champlain and Connecticut River valleys due to shadowing from
the mountains, closer to 0.20-0.60 inches in these areas. High
temperatures today will be seasonable in the lower and mid 70s,
so elevated instability is favored over surface, and will likely
be competing with the preceding stable air. A few rumbles of
thunder will be possible with modest overall instability and
strong 40-50 knots of shear. No severe or strong storms are
expected across northern New York or Vermont through the end of
the week. A strong low level jet of 40-50 kts at 850 mb will
also build in this evening, resulting in that shear mentioned.
While most of these stronger winds aloft will not be realized at
the surface due to concurrent precipitation, gusts between
25-35 MPH are likely, especially in the favored south-north
channeled valleys. For mariners, a Lake Wind Advisory is in
effect for Lake Champlain today and tonight. Temperatures will
remain mild overnight tonight in the upper 50s to mid 60s due to
the influx of warmer air in the warm sector of the system.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Widespread mild highs in the 70s are expected on
Thursday as gusty winds persist in favorable vertical mixing and
drying low levels behind the the system. Winds will likely gust
between 20-30 MPH out of the west and northwest Thursday, then trend
weaker into Friday but continue to be almost brisk in cold air
advection. This will result in a cooler day Friday with highs in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Depending on how light winds can become
Thursday night and Friday night, with high pressure nosing in from
the Great Lakes during this period, we can expect some patchy valley
fog in the typical spots. Deep layer ridging will slide over the
region on Saturday, supporting a dry and sunny day after fog
dissipates, with high temperatures back in the mid and upper 70s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: High pressure will build into the region towards the end
of the week into the weekend, bringing a stretch of dry and pleasant
weather. Daytime high temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will climb
the 70s to near 80 as the ridging shifts eastward leading to warm
southerly flow across the region. While dry weather will persist
through much of the weekend, precipitation chances will increase
through the day on Sunday with a progressive shortwave trough
pushing through. There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding this
feature, with some uncertainty regarding how much moisture and
widespread shower activity will be, but currently it looks like the
better chances will be towards the International Border. Another
system looks to bring another round of widespread precipitation
Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions currently prevail across
terminals this morning, with widespread rainfall expected this
afternoon into the overnight hours. As rainfall moves into the
region, flight conditions are expected to trend towards MVFR for
both ceilings and visibility restrictions, generally after 18Z.
Heading into the evening and overnight, steady rainfall will
continue to lead to low MVFR and even IFR ceilings, although
there is still some uncertainty as to low ceilings will become.
In addition to precipitation, breezy south winds are expected to
develop later this morning into the afternoon, especially in the
Champlain Valley where gusts in excess of 25 knots will be
possible. Widespread LLWS is expected across the region towards
the end of the forecast period as a strong LLJ moves through the
region.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly wind gusts 15 to 25 knots are expected on Lake
Champlain this morning by 7 AM to 9 AM, highest across the
Broad Waters. Sustained winds will reach 15 to 25 knots around
11 AM to 1 PM today, increasing to 30 knots this afternoon and
peaking around 2 PM to 4 PM. Waves will be around 1 to 3 feet,
building to 2 to 4 feet. Sustained winds diminish below 25 knots
by 1 AM to 3 AM early Thursday morning.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Storm
AVIATION...Kremer
MARINE...Storm
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