404
FXUS61 KBTV 022351
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
751 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 240 PM EDT Friday...
No significant changes made.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 240 PM EDT Friday...
1. Cooler and drier weather on Saturday, followed by increasing
showers chances late Sunday into Monday ahead of our next cold
front, but minimal impacts are anticipated.
2. A push of cold air will likely result in some frost/freeze
midweek, and then moderating as we approach next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 PM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Radar showers associated with our cold front are quickly
exiting our eastern cwa this aftn, as mid lvl GOES-19 water vapor
imagery is showing drier air aloft rapidly expanding acrs our fa.
Rainfall amounts ranged from 0.50 to 0.75" acrs northern NY to 0.25
to 0.50" CPV to 0.05 to 0.25" acrs most of central/eastern VT today.
Gradient btwn building 1025mb high pres to our west and departing
1007mb low pres over central ME, should limit fog development until
sunrise on Sat. Upstream vis satl imagery shows immediate clearing
approaching the SLV, but this axis is narrow with plenty of stratus
cumulus clouds behind clearing axis. So anticipating areas of clouds
overnight, especially in the trrn given caa and favorable upslope
flow. Lows with clouds/winds hold in the mid/upper 30s to mid/upper
40s. For Saturday soundings show deep dry layer aloft building
directly overhead, but still notice some moisture trapped below
subsidence inversion around 925mb, which combined with upslope flow
and lingering/leftover bl moisture from recent rainfall wl produce
areas of fair wx cumulus clouds, especially trrn. Did use the mtn
max temp tool to sharpen temp range btwn valleys and summits on
Saturday with highs l/m 40s summits to lower 60s warmest valleys.
A 1029mb high pres is located over the NEK of VT at 06z Sunday,
which should result in mostly clear skies and light winds, allowing
for fog development and areas of frost. Lows range from the mid 20s
NEK/SLK to lower 40s near Lake Champlain by Sunday morning.
Next system has vigorous s/w energy with digging mid/upper lvl trof,
but deep layer moisture is limited as pw values are in the 0.60" to
0.75" ahead of boundary. Several broken line of low top showers are
likely late Sunday into Monday associated with mid/upper lvl trof
and multiple boundaries moving acrs our cwa. Winds shift to the
west/northwest by Monday aftn with sharply falling temps, especially
summits as progged 850mb temps fall below 0C. Would not be surprised
a few frozen pellets/graupel possible on Monday aftn, given thermal
profiles, but moisture is quickly waning as temps are cool enough to
support frozen precip. Best probability would be above 3500 feet
after 18z on Monday, given crnt sounding data at Jay Peak.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Strong northwest flow will advect plenty of cold air
Monday night into Tuesday, with temperatures falling into the mid
20s to mid 30s, though areas near Lake Champlain will likely hover
around 40. Freezing levels will fall well below summit levels, but
dry air will infiltrate rapidly behind the front so no snow is
expected. There could be a few lingering clouds to cause a bit of
rime ice but even the low clouds look to scour out fast. There
should be some level of flow lingering through Monday night into
Tuesday that should keep frost from developing. However, higher
elevations will simply go straight to freezing from the advection.
Fall will very much be in the air on Tuesday with brisk winds and
high temperatures lingering in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Then on
Tuesday night, broad surface high pressure will set up. It looks
like we`ll also be around the PWAT min across the region, and so
very efficient radiational cooling is increasing likely. Almost the
entire region could experience a freeze, and the Champlain Valley
remains in the alert window for this time. So this will likely be
curtain call for all gardener`s sensitive plants in the broad
valleys for Tuesday night. Surface high pressure will amble east
after Wednesday, and temperatures will start moderating. The next
front will arrive next Friday with some scattered light showers.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Aside from RUT, all terminals are
experiencing VFR conditions. The shallow low ceilings at RUT may
linger or bounce through the remainder of the night due to
blocked/light northwesterly flow, with a period of IFR ceilings
possible. Otherwise, low clouds have already cleared at BTV
leaving risk there of this hazard very low. Have noted mixed
signals for fog at SLK, but have left it out of the TAF with low
probabilities despite decreasing winds aloft towards daybreak.
Meanwhile somewhat stronger northwesterly flow at MPV looks
like a limiting factor for fog at MPV. This risk will be re-
evaluated in the 06Z TAF package.
Winds are generally calm or light northwesterly, and generally
light winds will persist. However, a brief surge of winds with
possible gusts in the 14 to 20 knot range is noted as winds off
the deck increase in the 02Z to 05Z period. The advection is
weak with the nocturnal inversion precluding winds from mixing
much; highest probability of gusts is at MSS where they are
explicitly in the TAF. Otherwise, a steadier wind mostly under
10 knots will continue at all terminals through the period.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 240 PM EDT Friday...
A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for tonight for a brief 2 to 4
hour wind of gusty north to northwest winds between 10 PM and 2 AM.
Expecting a secondary surge of cooler air to produce gusty northwest
winds 15 to 25 knots for several hours overnight tonight, before
settling back toward 10 to 15 knots toward sunrise on Saturday. Wave
will build 1 to 3 feet. Highest probability of reach Lake Wind
Advisory criteria will be on the central and southern portion of the
Lake tonight.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Taber/Myskowski
AVIATION...Kutikoff
MARINE...Taber
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