831
FXUS61 KBTV 151115
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
715 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 311 AM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 311 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Primarily dry and seasonable through midweek. A period of
rain is likely in southern portions of the region on Thursday,
followed by another cold front that brings cooler and breezy
conditions for Friday.

2. Chances for showers return Saturday night into Sunday, cool
temperatures expected from Friday night through Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 311 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A ridge of high pressure is centered near the
International Border early this morning, providing us with ideal
conditions for frost in the Adirondack region and far
northeastern Vermont. The center of high pressure is expected to
become positioned over the Gulf of Maine by this afternoon,
leading to southerly channeled flow. Given dry and relatively
cool air in place, Lake Champlain should once again have rather
breezy conditions beginning this afternoon with a long duration
of south winds through tomorrow morning.

Aside from the local terrain effects and modest low level jet
tonight, no significant weather is expected as a weakening cold
front approaches from the west tonight. Other than increasing
clouds and milder conditions, there will be spotty light showers
possible, with a broad consensus on the timing being in the
early Wednesday morning hours and slightly greater chance of
measurable rain in southern portions of our northern New York
zones. Because the front largely washes out over/just south of
our region, a large area of cloudy skies will probably be
present during the day, which will possibly limit heating on
what otherwise would be the warmest day of the week given fairly
warm temperatures aloft. 925 millibar temperatures especially
over our southern areas will likely be above normal (near the
75th percentile) during the afternoon, supporting highs near 80
in the Upper Valley especially with mainly sunny skies or breaks
in the clouds. With dewpoints increasing back into the low 60s,
it will be another short-lived bout of summer weather.

The next more substantial rainfall chance remains on track for
Thursday associated with weak overrunning, as high pressure
remains to our north and a wave of low pressure passes to our
south. The thermal gradient and dynamical support for rain looks
modest at best, so the footprint and intensity of rain should
likewise be limited. Trends in the data show better chances of
showers generally in the afternoon/evening and across
southern/central Vermont and southern portions of the
Adirondacks. Rain cooled air will complicate the temperature
forecast especially with an earlier onset of precipitation, but
for many locations Thursday looks like the last day for a while
to see temperatures reach the 70s.

A trough passing through Quebec will force a cold front through
our region Thursday night with little fanfare yet again, but
bring in another round of refreshing air on northwest flow.
Nothing particularly noteworthy with this air mass appears in
the data at this time with only modest advection; even in the
global ensemble cluster with the lowest temperatures they only
drop a bit below seasonal normals. As such, high temperatures
ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s amidst full sunshine look
reasonable at this time. The most cool and dry air appears to be
timed for Friday night as high pressure builds in from the
northwest.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Focus for the longer term portion of the
forecast continues to be the low pressure system bringing rain
to our region Saturday night into Sunday. Surface low will track
from the Great Lakes region northeastward just north of our
area. There are still some differences between models with this
system, but general thought is for rain to spread into our
region Saturday night, continuing into Sunday with most areas
having a wetting rain. ECMWF does keep this system mostly south
of our area, but GFS solution shows most areas having rain. WPC
has placed our region in Marginal risk for the excessive rain
outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Dense fog remains in some valley
locations across our area, SLK/MPV are still LIFR at this time.
Fog should lift by about 13z. SKC skies this morning give way
to increasing mid/high level clouds through the daytime.
Light terrain driven winds early this morning will turn towards
S at 5-10 kt after 14z. Have included southerly wind gusts at
BTV/PBG this afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
After a period of light winds this morning, channeled south
winds are expected to rapidly increase towards noon. They should
ramp up on the broad waters into the 20 to 25 knot range by
late afternoon, and near 20 knots over the northern waters. As a
result, waves will markedly increase into the 1 to 3 feet range
this afternoon. During the evening, they will likely reach the
3 to 4 feet range in the vicinity of Colchester Reef and 2 to 3
foot range in the Inland Sea as winds will likely peak in
intensity. Elevated south winds will likely persist into
Wednesday morning before sharply diminishing by Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...Kutikoff