140
FXUS61 KBTV 272332
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
732 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 255 PM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 255 PM EDT Sunday...
1. The nor`easter exits the region tomorrow night, and
conditions trend warmer and sunnier.
2. Next chance of showers will be from a cold frontal passage
Thursday night into Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The nor`easter made "landfall" this morning on the
Jersey Shore, continuing to gradually weaken. Due to this and its
completed occlusion, the weakening process will continue. The low
will begin to re-enter the synoptic circulation tomorrow and drift
northeastward into the Gulf of Maine and the Canadian Maritimes.
Even though the precipitation shield will become smaller and more
isolated as it weakens, the showers will continue over the region as
the center passes closer. The showers will exit tomorrow night as
the low continues to push northeast. Even though the rain will end
for Tuesday, the boundary layer flow will transition to
northwesterly and become increasingly blocked as the inversion
height lowers, and cloud cover looks to hold thick in many areas,
especially across the upslope areas and northern Vermont. Drier air
will eventually mix into the lower levels for Wednesday and the sun
should finally return for everywhere, though high clouds will begin
to increase in the afternoon from a storm system moving toward the
region from the Midwest. Due to the sunshine, temperatures should
rise into the 70s for most areas on Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure builds into our region from the south on
Thursday providing us with the warmest day of the forecast period.
Maximum temperatures will range through the 70s with some sites
having near record warmth. Thursday night into Friday will bring our
next chance for precipitation as a cold front will cross our region
in that timeframe. Another ridge of surface high pressure will build
into our area behind this front bringing additional dry weather,
this time with cooler temperatures as the high builds into our area
from Canada.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Coverage of showers has decreased over the
last few hours. The next swath of rain is taking shape just
north of Lebanon, NH and offshore to Portland, ME and have
mainly noted some PROB30s and VCSH for that activity over the
next 6-12 hours. Northeast winds around 5-10 knots will become
northerly. Some LLWS will linger across Vermont, mainly at KRUT,
KMPV, and KEFK through about 07-09z with 30-40 kt east-
northeast winds at 2000 ft agl. Ceilings will likely be somewhat
variable across Vermont, but moisture may get briefly trapped
in the Adirondacks. Broader changes to flight rules will begin
about 11z-16z as ceilings begin to trend MVFR. Then, a larger
area of rain will rotate northwest across all terminals, but
failing to reach KMSS. This will likely have some rain with
visibilities between 3-6SM and ceilings falling to 800-2500 ft
agl.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Myskowski
AVIATION...Haynes
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