802
FXUS61 KBTV 070541
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
141 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue across our region through
midweek with intervals of showers. The greatest potential for
showers on Wednesday will be across central and northern Vermont as
temperatures climb into the mid 60s to lower 70s. On Thursday, the
highest chances for measurable precipitation will be across the
higher terrain of northern New York and Vermont with cooler
temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Additional rainfall is
possible on Friday into Saturday across portions of our region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 132 AM EDT Wednesday...Showers advancing up the Champlain
Valley and Adirondacks are gradually dissipating due to dry
entrainment. A warm mid-spring night will continue with
relatively dry conditions. Temperatures likely to stay in the
upper 40s over higher elevations and 50s elsewhere. Have a great
night!
Previous discussion...East/southeast facing slopes of the
Greens/Dacks have the best potential for qpf and highest pops.
As instability wanes toward midnight, coverage/intensity should
weaken with decreasing pops. Lows given the clouds and higher
sfc dwpts in the 50s, wl stay in the upper 40s to upper 50s
areawide.
On Weds mid/upper lvl trof and associated cool pool aloft with
progged 500mb temps near -20C moves directly overhead. The synoptic
scale lift with trof and developing thermodynamics with cool
pool aloft wl produce additional showers on Weds. The best
combination of moisture/instability looks to be acrs
central/northern and eastern VT, where I have continued with
likely pops. Instability is pretty minimal with sfc based CAPE
values of 200-400 J/kg, so thunder potential is rather low.
Highs similar to today with values in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Areal coverage of precip wl become more trrn focused as winds
shift to the west/northwest behind departing trof. Have highest
likley pops in northern NY and western Slopes/northern VT for
Weds night. Lows cooler than previous couple of night with
lowering sfc dwpts.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 358 PM EDT Tuesday...Thursday and Thursday night are now
looking a bit more active than before as some shortwave energy will
be passing overhead associated with upper level trough passage.
There will also be a low pressure system passing along the New
England coast. A surface trough extends north from this low and will
be focus for some showers in our area. High temperatures will be
cool on Thursday, mainly ranging through the 50s but some 60s in
southern Vermont will be possible also. Minimum temperatures
Thursday night will dip into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Best chance
for showers during this timeframe will be Thursday night and also
focused across central and southern Vermont.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 358 PM EDT Tuesday...Aforementioned low along New England coast
will be slow moving and will lift from near the New Jersey coast on
Friday morning, northeastward towards Cape Cod on Saturday morning.
Moisture wraps around this low, as well as surface troughs extending
out from surface low to spread some showers into our southeastern
zones on Saturday. Feel that NBM was too low for PoPs on Saturday so
have blended in SuperBlend but still tried to remain within
consistency with my neighbors. Our weather will then turn quieter
Sunday through Tuesday as a ridge of surface high pressure will
finally build into the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR over New York with pockets of
MVFR in Vermont are present at this time. Isolated rain showers
will dissipate in the next couple hours. About 09z, an upper
low will shift overhead. Initially, this will cause MVFR
ceilings to briefly improve over Vermont while bringing ceilings
down over KSLK and KMSS. Additional scattered rain showers will
follow behind that about 11z to 15z. Coverage of rain will
increase in Vermont as surface trough begins to shift southeast
from Canada 15z to 22z. Additional lingering showers are
possible as winds shift from south to northwest and could be
sharp in a few locations. Wind speeds will generally be 5 to 10
knots. Some LLWS is possible, but appears too marginal to
expressly note in TAFs. Once flow turns northwest after 00z,
ceilings will fall to 800-2500 ft agl with shower activity
ending, though some may linger near KEFK.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Haynes/Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Haynes
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