299
FXUS61 KBTV 031910
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
310 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 305 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 310 PM EDT Monday...

1. Shower and isolated rumbles for thunder will continue until
tonight as a cold front traverses the region with brief gusty
conditions associated with the front. Drier conditions are expected
tomorrow and Wednesday.

2. Seasonably warm and unsettled weather expected for the end
of this week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An upper level trough and associated cold front are
slowly progressing east northeast through the region with scattered
showers across portions of the area. Wrap around moisture along the
convergent deformation band in northern New York will likely lead to
some continued light shower chances through this afternoon. In
Vermont, a boundary of showers and thunderstorms has exited east of
the Connecticut River Valley and along with it, most of our
instability for any stronger storms. Our marginal severe threat has
ended as well as a result. Behind the boundary, some lingering
showers will be possible, with perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder
or two. Mainly, a quick half inch of rain will be possible in
association with showers. Associated with the cold front, breezy, to
locally gusty, winds are expected along the higher terrain and
Champlain Valley this afternoon/evening. As the front swings east,
an associated strengthening 40-50 knot low level jet will move along
the northern portions of the region. Gusts on summit levels could
gust up to 30-40 MPH, with valley winds around 20-30 MPH, mainly
between 6 and 10 PM. A nocturnal inversion and eastward progression
of the system will help temper down winds after midnight.

Showers and thunderstorms will taper off for most by late this
afternoon. Lingering northwest wrap around flow could lead to some
continued stubborn shower chances along the higher terrain of the
northern Greens and Adirondacks tonight. Across eastern Vermont, fog
development appears likely in the valleys of the region with brief
high pressure nudging in from the west, and with calming winds.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be quieter and calmer with temperatures
in the upper 70s to mid 80s and mostly clear skies. Dewpoints will
slowly creep up by mid week however, approaching the mid 60s in some
places. With upper level diffluence in place from the high pressure,
some decent mid-level forcing will coincide with decent moisture
advection to bring scattered to numerous showers to the region
Thursday afternoon with the potential for a few strong thunderstorms
should forcing align with peak diurnal heating.

KEY MESSAGE 2: No significant changes have been made to the forecast
for the end of the week into the weekend, with warm and unsettled
weather expected as the region remains situated between a Bermuda
high to our east and troughiness across the Plains. Broad
southwesterly flow across the eastern US will allow for plentiful
moisture to advect into to the region, with occasional shortwaves
passing overhead helping to drive shower chances. As usual in this
time frame, there is some uncertainty in the overall extent and
timing of precipitation, but several rounds of showers and possible
thunderstorms look likely at this point. With fairly weak forcing
and limited instability, severe weather looks unlikely however areas
of locally heavy rain will be possible with PWAT values near 2
inches, although there should be enough flow to limit any flood
threat but trends will need to be monitored as we get closer.
Temperatures during this time frame look to be on the warmer side,
with highs climbing into the 80s areawide this weekend, with
increased humidity making it feel a little uncomfortable at times.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Tricky aviation forecast with heavy rain
showers currently moving across the region. Have utilized some
prob 30 groups for anticipated additional scattered showers this
afternoon. Winds starting out gusty from the south will turn
northwesterly as front pushes through the area. A mix of VFR and
MVFR continues to prevail across terminals this afternoon. It
will be breezy throughout the afternoon, with gusts generally 15
to 20 knots, although 30 knot gusts will be possible. Some
pockets of LLWS are possible, especially across some of the
mountain terminals. High pressure will build in overnight behind
the front, bringing clearing skies and light winds. Some patchy
BR is possible in areas that had rain today.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Danzig
AVIATION...Neiles