915
FXUS61 KBTV 181819
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
219 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 217 PM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes to the current forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 217 PM EDT Sunday...
1. A chilly overnight period tonight will be followed by quiet
and dry weather well into mid week.
2. Dry and seasonable conditions continue through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 217 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure remains overhead this afternoon with some
channeling enhanced winds in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valley.
Winds will continue to remain breezy in the wider valleys through
tonight, especially across northern New York. A low-level jet
associated with a broad area of low pressure centered well north
into the Hudson Bay will bring continued southwest flow to the St.
Lawrence Valley overnight. Beyond sunset, typical radiational
cooling process will lower temperatures towards freezing in the
Northeast Kingdom and near the Connecticut River under clear skies.
Across northern New York, the low level jet will likely stifle
radiational cooling conditions with increased flow aloft as well as
advecting some warmer air, keeping lows in the low to mid 40s for
the St. Lawrence Valley and the low to mid 30s for most of the
Adirondacks. South to southwest flow will continue to bring warmer
air into the region with highs tomorrow into the low 60s. A weak
moisture starved cold front will slide south from Canada Monday
night into Tuesday and wash out over the area with no precipitation
expected, though some morning clouds and cooler temperatures can be
expected Tuesday morning. Sunny skies will prevail thereafter with
large scale ridging leading to low humidity and light winds through
mid week. There continues to be high confidence of no precipitation
areawide at least through mid week.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A classic stretch of fall weather will continue late
this week and through the weekend. Surface high pressure will build
south out of Quebec on Thursday and Friday, bringing cold air
advection. Highs will drop from the mid-50s to lower 60s on Thursday
into the upper 40s to around 50 on Friday. The high should be
centered almost directly overhead over the weekend, leading to clear
skies, light winds and highs in the 50s. Most mornings will be
frosty during this stretch, with lows in the 20s and 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail at all sites
for the next 24 hours, with mid level warm air advection clouds
lifting away from our region by 15z this morning. Otherwise,
light south/southwest winds will increase at 5 to 15 knots,
especially northern NY into Champlain Valley TAF sites today
with a few gusts up to 20 knots possible. Winds at 2000 feet agl
increase 30 to 40 knots this evening, especially northern NY
with areas of wind shear likely at MSS and SLK. However, surface
winds will become lighter toward sunset at 5 to 10 knots from
the south/southwest.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Broad and Northern
Waters of Lake Champlain through tonight. Channeling effects are
leading to minor enhancement of winds to 20 to 25 knots and waves
throughout the day from 1 to 3 feet for the Broad and Northern
Waters. Winds may weaken slightly to 15 to 20 knots on the Broad
Water during the the afternoon today, but gusts are expected to
remain near 25 knots and sustained winds are expected to increase
again to 20 to 25 knots towards late this afternoon and evening, and
continue through tonight.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Myskowski
AVIATION...Myskowski
MARINE...Danzig
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