613
FXUS61 KBTV 051928
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY
228 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 228 PM EST Thursday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 228 PM EST Thursday...
1. Periods of scattered showers will continue this afternoon
through the upcoming weekend as temperatures cool to near normal
levels.
2. There will be additional opportunities for non-impactful,
beneficial precipitation during the early to middle portion of
next week as the pattern remains unsettled.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 228 PM EST Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered showers continue this
afternoon into this evening as an initial cold front begins its
passage through the region. Drier air directly behind the front
will filter into northern New York and Vermont swiftly this
evening, becoming enhanced by the of the right exit region of an
incoming elongated jet streak, yielding dry conditions later
this evening through the overnight period. However, with clouds
slow to scour out due to lower-level moisture becoming trapped
below a low- to mid-level inversion, temperatures will remain on
the mild side. Expect lows in the low 40s to low 50s.
Dry conditions remain steady through tomorrow morning and even
early tomorrow afternoon as a secondary cold front and parent
low are slow to make eastward progress off the Eastern Great
Lakes. However, by mid-afternoon, isolated to scattered showers
return, particularly for Lake-adjacent areas, the Adirondacks
where upslope flow will overcome an overall lack of forcing, and
along the VT/NH border as a low develops along today`s initial
cold front that looks to stall along the New England Coastline.
Rainfall rates are anticipated to be light, with QPF generally
remaining under 0.1" through tomorrow night. Tomorrow`s highs
will be a bit cooler than today, though still classify as
above-normal with values in the low 50s to mid 60s. Lows
tomorrow night will then largely be in the 40s with upper 30s
across higher elevations.
The passage of the secondary cold front tomorrow night will see
temperatures fall much closer to normal than we have been over
the last several days. Highs Saturday will only reach the 40s
and 50s with additional chances for isolated to scattered
showers across higher elevations as moist, cyclonic flow remains
in place beneath an upper-level low moving into the Northeast.
Lows Saturday night will then fall largely to the 30s and 40s
with pockets of upper 20s across the Adirondacks and Greens.
Sunday will remain seasonably chilly with additional potential
for isolated, high-elevation showers, which could contain some
snowflakes, and highs in the 30s to low 40s across higher
elevations and upper 40s to low 50s in valley areas. Lows Sunday
night will then fall largely to the 20s and 30s.
KEY MESSAGE 2:
Additional chances for precipitation come mostly for Monday and
Wednesday next week as we remain in a more unsettled pattern.
However, given the recent dry conditions, all precipitation will
be beneficial and not pose any significant impacts.
Temperatures will remain more consistently near normal next week
with highs largely in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and
30s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday, a mix of VFR/MVFR Cigs with mainly VFR Vsbys
across the TAF sites through this afternoon. Area of steady
light/moderate rain will move east of the TAF sites shortly, however
a band of light/moderate showers associated with a cold front will
move east across the region during the mid to late afternoon,
producing a brief period of MVFR Vsbys. For tonight, VFR/MVFR Cigs
are expected. Should any breaks in the clouds develop, there could
be a bit of fog/low Cigs developing toward daybreak at SLK and
possibly MPV/RUT. Mainly VFR conditions are expected Friday morning.
South to southwest winds 5-12 KT with a few gusts up to 20-25 kt
will shift into the southwest to west and decrease by early evening
to 5-10 KT. Winds will then become light/variable tonight through
Friday morning, becoming north to northeast toward and especially
after 18Z/Fri.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for today on the broad lake.
South winds currently are likely 20 to 30 knots, expected to
peak early this morning prior to rain arriving. After a lull
during the rain, winds will likely pick up again for a few
hours, likely after 2 PM and before 7 PM, when winds could
occasionally be near 25 knots. Waves will tend to be 2 to 4
feet during the period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 216 AM EST Thursday...
Following records set on Wednesday, a high minimum temperature
is possible at BTV today.
Forecast: 58
Record: 60 in 2022
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NWS ALY
DISCUSSION...NWS ALY
AVIATION...NWS ALY
MARINE...Kutikoff
CLIMATE...Kutikoff
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