125
FXUS61 KBTV 271120
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
720 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 223 AM EDT Tuesday...

No notable changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 223 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Cold weather for today will be followed by gradually warming
conditions ahead of a weak front with light rain late Thursday into
Friday.

2. Dry and seasonable weather is expected over the weekend,
with increased chances for showers early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 223 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Another cool day is expected as a seasonably chilly air
mass remains overhead. Temperatures will linger in the 40s for most,
with a few 50s in the Upper Valley. The air mass is also dry, and
mountain summits will feel especially crisp with dewpoints in the
single digits in Fahrenheit heading below 0. Closer to the ground,
another day with relative humidity values ranging in the 30s,
locally down into the upper 20 percent range, is expected.
Fortunately, winds stay relatively light in the afternoon, but a few
gusts to 15 mph are possible across Vermont. Dry air will result in
a chilly night in the teens to mid 20s tonight. The only thing
preventing prime radiational cooling will be some incoming high
clouds in northern New York. Nevertheless, a few climate sites will
be in striking distance of record lows.

High pressure will amble offshore Wednesday, and more seasonable
temperatures are expected. A passing mid-level trough will slide
east, and with it will be some increasing clouds. Low-level
conditions will be much too dry for any precipitation to approach
the surface. Surface relative humidity values will be about the same
with light winds switching to the south midday.

Forecast weather for Thursday will be warmer with high temperatures
climbing into the 60s, but that will come with the price of
increasing south to southwesterly gusts west of the Greens into
northern New York of 20-30 mph. This will signal an incoming cold
front, approaching the St. Lawrence Valley by Thursday evening. The
tongue of moisture along the front is fairly narrow, and the
synoptic forcing is not anything noteworthy, but they should be
enough to produce light rain. It will be in the process of decay,
though. So it is likely to produce more precipitation across
northern areas than in south-central Vermont. Mainly a few
hundredths up to a tenth is expected, mainly along northwest slopes
of the northern Greens/northern Adirondacks and along the
international border. A few showers will linger across northern
mountains Friday afternoon, but trending dry gain into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: In the wake of a frontal boundary moving through the
region late this week, high pressure looks to build over the region
for the weekend, bringing another period of dry and seasonable
weather. High temperatures will generally climb into the 50s and low
60s this weekend. Heading into the start of next week, there looks
to be increasing chance for showers and an end to our dry weather
pattern, although there is still a lot of uncertainty amongst models
and the overall pattern evolution at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will continue to prevail
at all terminals, with mostly clear skies anticipated. Winds
continue to be north to northwesterly and will continue through
much of the day, although winds trend lighter and terrain
influenced this evening. Some increased high clouds may move in
after 00Z Wednesday, but VFR conditions are expected over the
next 24 hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A couple daily record lows are possible for October 28th. Below
is the current record and the current forecast as of 230 AM.

October 28:
KMPV: 20/1974 - Forecast 19
KPBG: 21/1999 - Forecast 23

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Routine observations from KSLK ASOS are unavailable until
further notice. While the site is operating, it is not able to
disseminate observations normally at this time. Technicians are
aware of the issue, but time of return to service is unknown.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Haynes
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV