396
FXUS61 KBTV 082351
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
751 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 247 PM EDT Thursday...
No significant changes made.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 247 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Scattered showers continue at times tonight into Friday,
before drier and cooler air arrives on Friday night into Saturday.
2. Several rounds of rainfall expected through the first half
of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 247 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 mid level water vapor imagery shows deep
dry layer acrs our cwa, which has help to limit the areal
coverage of showers this aftn. A weak impulse is approaching the
Ottawa Valley with a pocket of better mid lvl moisture and
instability and should be near the SLV by 22z this evening. This
wl quickly move eastward acrs the Dacks, before falling apart
in the CPV by midnight tonight. Have highest pops over the
SLV/Northern Dacks this evening. Additional s/w energy is
located north of Lake Huron and wl swing acrs our cwa on Friday
with more scattered showers expected, especially favorable
upslope areas of the Dacks and northern/central Greens.
Soundings indicate lingering instability overnight, combined
with upslope flow under llvl caa, should keep clouds persisting
in the mtns, even after sunset this evening. These clouds and
winds wl keep temps in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
For Friday, still thinking a few wet snow flakes are possible above
3500 feet, especially as progged 850mb temps drop below 0C per
latest RAP13 data by 12z. Highest probability of precip wl be acrs
the northern/central Greens and into parts of the CPV on Friday
morning. Once again very steep lapse rates are anticipated on Friday
aftn with summit temps in the mid/upper 30s, while valleys warm into
the upper 50s to lower 60s. Favorable mixing should help to advect
drier air aloft toward the sfc with dwpts falling back into the 30s
and lower 40s again on Friday aftn with breezy west/northwest winds
15 to 30 mph.
By 12z Saturday 1032mb high pres is progged to be centered over
northern NY, but 925mb to 850mb winds are still 15 to 30 knots from
the northwest and some 850 to 500mb moisture is already approaching
the area associated with waa. Have bumped temps upwards slightly
from my thoughts yesterday, but still thinking mid/upper 20s SLK to
upper 30s/lower 40s near Lake Champlain. Plenty of sunshine and
comfortable temps are expected on Saturday with highs mid 50s to
lower 60s. As sfc high pres shifts toward the Gulf of Maine,
southerly gradient develops on Sat night into Sunday with moderate
waa. Progged 925mb temps warm btwn 10-12C by 12z Sunday with
increasing 925mb to 850mb winds of 20 to 35 knots. Progged soundings
indicate a sharp and shallow llvl inversion developing Sat night,
support a wide range temps from cooler valleys to warmer
midslopes/summits with highs back into the 60s on Sunday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The forecast is quite challenging late Sunday into
Monday as the exact track of Hurricane Isaias will determine how wet
the end of the weekend and early next week. The global deterministic
guidance continues to show the remnants of Isaias bringing rainfall
the region Sunday night and Monday morning while the ensemble
guidance remains a bit split. A strong Bermuda high pressure system
over the western Atlantic is expected to suppress how far east the
remnants can initially track. A strengthening mid-level jet is
expected to develop on the southern side of the remnants as the
hurricane becomes extratropical which should push any precipitation
associated with the remnants quickly across the region with no
significant impact with rainfall amounts likely less than half of an
inch. An upper level trough will likely continue in the wake of the
remnants with a building ridge of high pressure expected across the
central US. This will put Vermont and northern New York under
northwesterly flow aloft with the potential for one or two cold
fronts through the middle of next week with chances for rainfall
associated with each of these fronts. Again, no significant
rainfall is expected. The pattern overall is wet and messy, but
isn`t expected to be impactful.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through
the TAF period, with localized MVFR ceilings possible early
Friday morning. Isolated showers will continue to move eastward
across the Champlain Valley and VT through 02z, but no
visibility restrictions are expected. Skies to remain FEW-SCT
AOA 5000 ft through 08z. Models then indicate low-level moisture
will increase ahead of a weak surface trough moving south out of
Canada 08z-14z Fri. Expect BKN- OVC ceilings 1500-2500 ft at
SLK/EFK during this time, with lesser confidence at MPV.
Elsewhere, ceilings will remain 4000+ ft. Clouds lift after 14z
as mixing increases and MVFR will prevail thereafter. Additional
scattered showers will develop again on Fri, but no visibility
restrictions are expected. Winds will be light W/SW less than 8
kt overnight, trending a bit more NW and increasing to 6-10 kt
with gusts to 20 kt after 14z Fri.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Taber/Clay
AVIATION...Hastings
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