453
FXUS61 KBTV 031045
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
645 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 221 AM EDT Thursday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 221 AM EDT Thursday...
1. After more widespread precipitation overnight and early this
morning, showers will become more scattered. Chances for afternoon
showers will continue throughout the week, before drier conditions
return towards Sunday.
2. Several rounds of showers expected next week but no
significant weather expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 221 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1:
Widespread precipitation continues to push through the region this
hour, although rainfall amounts are not nearly impressive as they
were earlier in the night when KMSS measured over 3 inches of
rainfall within a fairly short window. Showers will trend more
scattered as the day progresses, with the best chances for
additional rainfall across eastern Vermont and the northern Green
Mountains although amounts will generally be light. Gusty southerly
winds continue across the region this hour, particularly on Lake
Champlain, but will diminish towards daybreak and become more
northwesterly by this afternoon. Additional chances for diurnally
driven showers will continue through the rest of the week, with the
greatest chances across the high terrain while the broader valleys
remain on the drier side. High pressure looks to build in
towards Sunday, bringing some drier weather. Temperatures will
be on the cooler side as we remain under the influence of an
upper low, with high temperatures generally in the upper 60s to
mid 70s by this weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Deep layer ridging will make a brief appearance on
Monday bringing sunshine, light winds and seasonal temperatures to
the North Country and northern New York. This period of dry weather
will be short-lived as a shortwave trough in the northwesterly flow
aloft flattens the longwave ridge and drives a cold front through
the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. This should spark a
few showers but no thunderstorms or impactful weather are expected
with this system as we will seriously lack deep moisture.
Thereafter, a series of low amplitude shortwaves are expected to
move across the region through the second half of the work week.
Period of light showers seem plausible through much of the week with
ample period of dry weather between rounds of showers. However, if
you are looking for an extended period of dry weather, next week
does not look favorable for that at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Widely variable conditions are currently
being observed with VFR ceilings in the Champlain Valley with
MVFR to IFR ceilings elsewhere. We will continue to see these
lower ceilings through 14Z with quick improvement expected this
morning. South to southwest winds ranging from 10 to 20 knots
will be common this morning with winds veering toward the WNW
this afternoon and weakening throughout the day. Rain chances
are looking rather lackluster and have removed all PROB30 groups
as the chances any terminal sees a shower today remain very low.
Depending on how quickly clouds move out of the region this
evening, we could see a favorable night for widespread fog
across the region.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Labor Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Clay/Kremer
AVIATION...Clay
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