206
FXUS61 KBTV 111853
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
253 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 241 PM EDT Tuesday...
Have continued to increases chances for showers and embedded
thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. Mainly dry conditions expected overnight, with renewed
chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon.
2. More shower chances Thursday into Thursday night
3. A beautiful weekend is setting up as a dry airmass moves
into the region. Chances for precipitation increase again late
Sunday afternoon into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Drier air continues to advect into our region
this afternoon with gusty northwesterly winds this afternoon.
Winds will decrease headed into the evening and overnight, with
some fog development possible since we had a soaking rain across
much of the area in the last 24 hours. Some isolated showers
have still managed to pop up despite drier air and some may
track into our area from Ontario or Quebec later this afternoon
and evening. Don`t have any surface instability present to
support stronger storms. Our region will remain in northwesterly
upper level flow through Wednesday, and additional showers with
embedded thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon with a
bit better coverage than today due to some upper level support
with shortwave energy passing through progressive upper level
flow. Continues to look like best chances for showers Wednesday
will be across the northern half of our forecast area.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A low pressure system will pass near or north of
the region later Thursday into Friday. Scattered rain with
embedded thunderstorms can be expected with this system, with
convective weather more uncertain and relatively limited
compared to recent events. Still some uncertainty with timing of
features passing through, and also lacking some model
consistency, leading to a low confidence forecast for that
timeframe. Looks like things will kind of come through piecemeal
too, so don`t think we`ll see any organized storms on Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Over the weekend, much drier air moves into the
region as high pressure pushes the low along the longwave
pattern. Conditions will likely be quite pleasant Saturday with
dewpoints in the 40s and 50s with temperatures generally in the
70s. The ridge axis is projected to shift eastward Sunday and
supports slightly warmer highs for the broader valleys with
continued 40s and 50s dew points. Overall, these conditions are
shaping up to be near ideal weather for outdoor activities.
However, there is the potential (10- 40% chance of precip) for
some showers and thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon, increasing
Sunday night and early Monday morning to 30- 60% chance as the
next wave moves through quickly in zonal flow with a few showers
lingering on Monday. Temperatures should warm a degree or
Monday and Tuesday as low level flow turns southwesterly.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Dry today, with next chance of a few
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm late in the day Wednesday.
Northwesterly winds 5-10 knots with gusts 10-25 knots are
currently being reported across northern New York and Vermont.
Winds are expected to lower below 10 knots around 20Z Tuesday -
03Z Wednesday as the sun sets and we lose daytime heating. Most
sites should see northwesterly winds continue, though MSS can
expect a more southwesterly direction through the St. Lawrence
Valley. The sheltered valley sites, SLK, MPV, and EFK, are
likely to see winds go calm or light and variable tonight, and
clearing skies would mean the return of fog potential. Fog is
not out of the question at any site. EFK could see a light
southwesterly topographic wind, which may limit persistent fog,
but climatology suggests that IFR conditions do tend to occur
with this wind direction during this time of year. Most likely
period of MVFR or lower conditions at EFK, MPV, or SLK would be
07Z-13Z Wednesday, with winds aloft keeping fog at bay before
then. IFR is possible during this period at these three sites,
but overall confidence is not high enough at the moment to
include it in the TAF. If the surface inversion continues to
look favorable for fog and/or low stratus, following TAF
issuances may include this. Wednesday, winds increase again out
of the west-northwest throughout the day.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Storm/Neiles
AVIATION...Storm
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