260
FXUS61 KBTV 181548
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1048 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds will continue through much of the day today, especially
in the Champlain Valley. A mix of rain and snow will spread over the
region today and continue into the overnight, ending around
midnight. A fast-moving system will bring a quick shot of snow to
mainly central and southern areas Sunday night into Monday, followed
by very cold conditions early next week. Temperatures below zero and
wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero are possible Tuesday morning and
Wednesday morning. Gradual warming and a return to drier weather is
expected by late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1048 AM EST Saturday...Forecast remains on track as of
late morning. Small tweaks to cloud cover and wx type were made
through late this afternoon, the latter being to acct. for
slightly stronger wet-bulbing effects, but these were largely at
the noise level. Excerpts from prior discussion follows. Have a
great day!
Excerpts from prior discussion...A Wind Advisory remains in
effect for the northern and eastern Champlain Valley until 5 pm
this evening. We have already had gusts of 35 to 50 mph along
Lake Champlain and the Vermont side of the Valley. Winds have
been breezy outside of the Advisory area as well, particularly
on the northern slopes of the Adirondacks; the NY mesonet site
at Malone has gusted to 38 mph so far this morning. These gusty
winds will continue through the day as a 50+ kt 900 mb jet moves
overhead. Any one recreating outdoors today will need to use
caution due to these gusty winds. Ice on Lake Champlain, even
shore ice, could well shift and move due to the strong winds and
increased wave action. Mountain summits will be very windy as
well, with gusts up to 55 mph.
The south winds have also brought warming temperatures already this
morning, with the Champlain Valley, northern slopes of the
Adirondacks, and St Lawrence Valley currently in the mid 30s.
Elsewhere, temperatures are mainly in the mid 20s to around 30F, but
expect even these more sheltered locations to see warming
temperatures through the day. Highs by this afternoon will be in the
mid to upper 30s in most locations, while expect portions of the
Champlain Valley could well hit or even exceed 40F. Precipitation
associated with this frontal system can already be seen lifting
northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes/western NY/PA, and this
should spread into our region from west to east roughly late-morning
to mid-afternoon. Given the temperatures stated above, precipitation
will likely start as rain in the St Lawrence/Champlain Valleys, and
even some of the higher terrain could see rain or rain/snow mix at
the onset. However, dewpoints should remain at or below freezing, so
higher elevations should transition over to plain snow once
precipitation starts in earnest. This will continue into the evening
hours; then a strong cold front will cross from west to east.
Temperatures will drop sharply with the front, and any rain will
likely end as a brief period of snow this evening until drier air
brings it to an end by midnight or so. The northern Greens will hold
onto the snow showers longest, though even there it should be pretty
much done by daybreak Sunday. Snow amounts through the event will be
fairly minimal given the marginal temperatures and fast motion of
the system as a whole. Lower elevations should see less than an
inch, while elevations above 1500 ft will get an inch or two.
Perhaps of more concern will be the potential for a flash freeze
with the frontal passage. Temperatures could well fall 5-10 degrees
in just a short time, freezing any standing water on roads and other
surfaces. Travel could be slick overnight, with light snow
accumulation hiding an icy layer underneath. Temperatures will fall
sharply overnight, down into the single digits/mid teens in northern
and central areas, while south central VT should remain in the low
to mid 20s.
Sunday morning will be quiet but cold as we remain under cold air
advection. North/northwest winds will be a little on the breezy
side, but not nearly as gusty as today. We may see a few breaks of
sunshine early, but clouds will quickly increase during the
afternoon ahead low pressure moving off the East Coast. Snow from
this coastal system will start to spread into our southern sections
during the afternoon hours, but the bulk will hold off until Sunday
evening/night. Temperatures will not warm much in spite of any
sunshine; highs will only be in the mid teens to mid 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 336 AM EST Saturday...A low pressure system moving up the
eastern seaboard will bring moderate snow to our region on Friday. A
distinct lack of model consensus on the track of this system makes
forecasting difficult. If the system goes further north than
currently forecast, snow totals for our CWA could increase
significantly. The lack of forecaster confidence is demonstrated by
the 10th and 90th percentile snowfall amounts. Rutland for example
is showing a reasonable low end chance of getting as a dusting,
while a reasonable high end scenario would provide 10" to the city.
The models have trended slightly less favorable since the last
forecast update but with the low confidence we`ve only slightly
tweaked the deterministic forecast. An advisory could still be
warranted for Rutland, Windsor, and Orange counties when the storm
comes into more focus.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Arctic air breaks into the northeast early next week, with
temperatures likely to fall below zero in most locations within our
CWA. Dangerous cold is forecast to persist from Monday through
Thursday, with temperatures looking to fall below zero in the
morning for multiple days. Making matters worse, we aren`t
anticipating calm winds so the apparent temperatures will be even
colder.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...The primary aviation concern will be
developing strong winds and associated low level wind shear and
turbulence at our TAF sites through the day today. South winds
15 to 25 kt with gusts of 25 to 40 kt will continue through 21z
Saturday, with the strongest gusts at KBTV. VFR conditions will
continue through 16z, then lowering to MVFR through the
remainder of the TAF period. A mix of rain and snow develops
after 18z from west to east across our TAF sites, with
visibility trending toward MVFR by 21z, mainly at
KSLK/KMPV/KMSS, with some IFR visibility likely after 00z in
light snow, except at KBTV/KPBG/KRUT. A cold front will start to
move through from west to east after 02z, turning winds to the
west/northwest, but remaining gusty to 25-30 kt. Precipitation
will end after 06z, but overall expect MVFR/local IFR ceilings
to persist through the remainder of the TAF period at most
sites.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN.
Martin Luther King Jr Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ001-002-005.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...JMG/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Hastings
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