694
FXUS61 KBTV 032328
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
728 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 254 PM EDT Thursday...
No significant changes with this forecast package.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 254 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Chances for afternoon showers will continue throughout the
week, before drier conditions return towards Sunday.
2. Several rounds of showers are expected next week but
significant weather is not expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 254 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Upper level trough and low pressure will remain
over our region through Saturday. Scattered afternoon showers
are expected each day, varying in intensity based on potency of
shortwaves passing through. Tricky to time which day will have
the best chance for showers, but presently looks like Saturday
may have the most showers. Sunday will trend drier as upper
level trough finally slides eastward and away from our area.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler than seasonal normals through
the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Deep layer ridging will make a brief appearance
on Monday bringing sunshine, light winds, and seasonal
temperatures to the North Country and northern New York. This
period of dry weather will be short-lived as a shortwave trough
in the northwesterly flow aloft flattens the longwave ridge and
drives a cold front through the region Monday night into Tuesday
morning. This should spark a few showers but no thunderstorms
or impactful weather are expected with this system as we will
seriously lack deep moisture. Thereafter, a series of low
amplitude shortwaves are expected to move across the region
through the second half of the work week. Periods of light
showers seem plausible through much of the week with ample
period of dry weather between rounds of showers. However, if you
are looking for an extended period of dry weather, next week
does not look favorable for that at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Aviation challenge overnight is areal
coverage of fog/br and potential impacts at our terminals. Crnt
satl imagery shows a scattered to broken mid level cloud deck
across our region with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to l/m
60s, indicating low level moisture is lingering. Given this
moisture, combined with lightening bl winds, feel fog
development toward 06z is likely (60-70%) at MPV/SLK and EFK
and possible (25 to 35%) at RUT/BTV and MSS toward sunrise on
Friday. Have utilized a combination of prevailing and tempo
groups based on above probability at our taf sites overnight for
fog/br with ifr/lifr conditions expected. Any lingering fog/br
should lift by 1330Z as northwest winds increase 5 to 10 knots
with a few gusts 15 to 20 knots expected. A spot shower or two
is possible but probability of impacting a taf site is too low
to mention at this time.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Patchy BR.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Patchy BR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Labor Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Storm/Neiles
AVIATION...Taber
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