599
FXUS61 KBTV 021144
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
644 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 209 AM EST Monday...
No significant adjustments were needed.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 209 AM EST Monday...
1. Warm temperatures continue through Wednesday with potential
for exceeding a few daily records Wednesday afternoon. Shower
chances remain Tuesday afternoon.
2. Rain is expected from Thursday into Friday morning. Somewhat
more uncertain is additional rain Friday afternoon through Saturday
night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 209 AM EST Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Large high pressure will slowly shift eastward
through mid week with flow becoming more southerly. This will
result in a warming trend today through Wednesday although some
shower chances towards the Canadian border Tuesday afternoon may
stunt warmth locally. The warmest day will be Wednesday with
deep layer winds advecting warm air out of the
south/southeasterly directions under mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies. As such, highs will be in the low to mid 60s for
most spots today except for southern Vermont where some upper
60s are possible. Tuesday will be similar to today, except
towards the Canadian border where cloud cover and showers may
keep temperatures down in the lower 60s. Upper 60s to low/mid
70s are anticipated for Wednesday under this pattern. A few
spots could exceed their daily records. Overnight lows will
also remain warmer than typical only dropping into the 40s to
around 50 tonight and increasing into the upper 40s to mid 50s
by Wednesday night.
A weak wave will be moving along the ridge`s northern periphery
Tuesday and Tuesday night bringing shower chances mainly to
northern New York and the northern half of Vermont. Amounts will
be light given that it will be moving into a ridge, but QPF has
trended slightly upward to around 0.1" along the Highway 11
corridor in northern New York. Generally, a couple hundredths
up to around a tenth of an inch of rain is expected.
KEY MESSAGE 2: On Thursday, rain will spread eastward through our
region. It will be driven by an occluded front, which will be tied
to a well defined but decaying low pressure system over the western
Great Lakes region heading northeastward. This pattern leads to
widespread rain but with only modest wind fields and rainfall rates,
so no hazardous weather is expected at this time. Forecast soundings
show a sliver of instability insufficient for any thunder, and while
there will be anomalous moisture, warm cloud depth is limited.
Rainfall totals through Friday morning from a multi-model blend look
favored to range from about 0.25" to 0.5" with localized higher
amounts, most likely occur in the western Adirondack region and
perhaps the western slopes of the northern Greens. PoPs are only
limited by timing differences, so for a given six hour period
chances of rain are generally 60-80% during this period. I would say
in contrast, for the event overall there is >99% chance of rain
areawide with about a 75-90% chance of reaching 0.1" of rain.
Many ensemble solutions continue to show a low pressure area develop
downstream of the incoming upper level low that digs southeastward
into western New York by Friday night. As this occurs, the
orientation of the trough becomes negatively tilted; if this happens
quickly enough as shown in an unlikely scenario favored by 40% of
GEFS membership, a retrograding/pivoting area of moderate to heavy
rain initially to our east will retrograde and pivot northwestward
on Saturday as low pressure moves northward and passes to our east.
The current operational GFS solution is near the "reasonable high
end" at the moment amongst the aforementioned GEFS members, in which
24 hour rainfall amounts could be as high as two inches in portions
of eastern Vermont. On top of the rain that falls earlier in the
week, a beneficial rainfall of up to 3" could occur; 1" to 2" is
more likely across most of Vermont and Adirondacks, and near 1" in
the rest of northern New York. A slower scenario of the
aforementioned upper level low will give us a break in rain for much
of Friday and Saturday before showers return on Sunday. This
incoming trough will put an end to our above normal temperatures,
although cloud cover will prevent nighttime conditions from getting
too chilly.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR will continue. A thin cloud deck
around 6000 feet agl early this morning has begun to scatter but
is being replaced by one around 10,000 feet. Chances for
precipitation that had been low have trended even lower, with
dry conditions expected through the period.
Winds are variable but generally will be out of the south or
southwest through the day. MSS and BTV will see moderately
strong, terrain driven winds around 10 knots sustained, with
some gusts possible up to 20 knots or so, before subsiding
towards 00Z. Elsewhere these winds will remain under 10 knots.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. Chance RA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures could approach record highs on November 4th, with
the greatest chance of surpassing the record at KMSS.
Site | Record | Forecast
KMSS | 71 (2022) | 73
KBTV | 73 (1982) | 71
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Storm/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Hastings/Kutikoff
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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