109
FXUS61 KBTV 182330
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
730 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 212 PM EDT Tuesday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. A weak cold front will bring some shower chances to the
region tomorrow, with seasonable and mostly dry conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the week.
2. Showery and cooler conditions with beneficial rain are on
track for late this weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 212 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Mostly dry and seasonable conditions are
expected to continue across the region through the remainder of
the week, with a few chances for showers possible. High
temperatures will generally be in the 70s to low 80s the next
several days. Another round of patchy fog will be possible
tonight into tomorrow morning with high pressure overhead, but
moisture will be limited which will influence how much fog
develops overnight. A decaying cold front will move through the
region tomorrow, bringing chances for scattered showers and
possible embedded thunderstorms, particularly across northern
New York. Showers and any thunderstorms that do develop look to
be rather unimpactful, with limited dynamics and instability to
promote any stronger thunderstorms. Shower chances may linger
into the evening, especially across the higher terrain before
drier conditions return to the region. Some showers cannot be
entirely ruled out on Thursday as a weak area of low pressure
moving across southern New England, but chances are fairly low
and dry conditions are expected to prevail across most of the
area, with dry and seasonable conditions continuing into Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A deep 500 millibar trough is expected to dig
into the Great Lakes region Saturday night, leading to
widespread showers overspreading our area into Sunday. Expect
showers will tend to be orographically enhanced with this setup,
but thankfully there are are no signals for noteworthy moisture
or heat to advect northward, which limits potential for
impactful/hazardous weather. As such, the latest 48 hour
rainfall probabilities of exceeding 1.00" of rain are only in
the 15 - 40% range with 2.00" probabilities below 10%. Greatest
chances of the higher rainfall amounts appear primarily in the
western foothills of the Adirondacks and westward into the St.
Lawrence Valley. Given the aforementioned meridional winds and
likely deep upper level low, would expect a fairly long duration
event with at least periods of showers. Generally this system
should bring plenty of cloud cover and cool air from the
northwest by Monday, such that daytime temperatures will trend
temporarily below normal before recovering towards midweek
following the departure of the trough.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...The return of radiation fog is possible
tonight around 06Z-14Z Wednesday, most likely IFR level for a
couple hours at the typical sites SLK and MPV. Due to drier air
mixing down this afternoon as compared to yesterday`s increased
moisture following the rain, the anticipated fog coverage and
longevity tonight is much less than last night. There may also
be more southwesterly winds just aloft during the prime fog
hours tonight from return flow, and clouds are likely to be on
the increase, especially across northern New York. Overall, we
continue to see mixed signals on when and for how long fog is
going to develop in the valleys, but expect it will be more
isolated and shorter duration than last night. On Wednesday,
winds will increase out of the south-southwest, resulting in
channeled gusts at MSS 15-20 knots by the afternoon hours. We
also expect showers to arrive from west to east across northern
New York Wednesday morning, arriving at MSS by 11Z-19Z.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Storm/Kremer
AVIATION...Neiles
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