878
FXUS61 KBTV 141829
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
229 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 227 PM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes made to the forecast this cycle.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 227 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Cool and quiet weather will continue through Thursday night.
2. A dynamic system will bring rain, gusty winds, and some
higher elevation snow on the backside.
3. Temperatures trending above normal with mostly dry
conditions prevailing Sunday through Tuesday of the extended
forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 227 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: One round of light shower activity has exited east of
Vermont, and there are some additional light radar returns upstream
in Canada. Steady, breezy conditions are expected today as northwest
winds begin to increase overnight. This should allow for some
continued rounds of light, orographically enhanced showers into.
Northwesterly flow will result in somewhat cooler air filtering in,
but the nighttime lows are relatively close to seasonal lows around
the 30s to lower 40s. Conditions may still be brisk early tomorrow
morning, but winds show be subsiding by Thursday morning with a cool
day on tap where we struggle to get much above the 50s beneath
gradually increasing cloud cover during the afternoon as the next
system approaches.
KEY MESSAGE 2: For the rain component - Another solid soaker is
expected for Friday. A digging upper trough and closed mid-level
cyclone will result in efficient transport of more tropical Pacific
air. PWATs will surge to around 250-275 percent of normal as a warm
front begins to approach. Initially, surface conditions will be
rather dry Thursday night. Still, increasing south flow will result
in temperatures leveling off after a rather fast initial drop to the
30s to lower 40s. Confluent low-level flow will bring in some low
level moisture off the Atlantic. By dawn on Friday, an 850mb jet
around 45 knots will result in efficient isentropic lift along the
warm front which will get hung up near or just north of the
international border. Most likely, precipitation will fall as rain,
but wet-bulb zero heights are flirting quite close to the ground in
the Northeast Kingdom with a substantial warm nose overhead. NBM
probabilities depict 2% snow, but realistically, that would be the
chance for some wintry mix. Then by afternoon, surface low pressure
will track through the St. Lawrence Valley. Guidance has the surface
low track almost overhead, with little time spent in the warm
sector. We will see temperatures climb into the mid 50s to near 60,
but that could be a little optimistic. The surface low will shift
east by Friday night, and then cooler air will quickly filter in
behind it as a strong 1035mb surface high builds to our west.
For the wind component - The wind forecast is somewhat challenging.
On one hand, the low-level jet is strong, but it appears most likely
to be raining when it peaks, and forecast soundings depict the jet
above the bottom of the inversion layer. It seems most likely that
the strongest winds will come from channeled flow with the highest
gusts of 30-40 mph in and around Lake Champlain for Friday morning.
Winds will briefly dip as surface low pressure tracks over the
region during the day, and then wind speeds will ramp up due to the
increasing pressure gradient from the strong 1035mb surface high.
Widespread 25 to 35 mph gusts will persist Friday night into early
Saturday as temperatures cool. This will make for a chilly night as
temperatures fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s. Apparent temps/wind
chills will reach the teens in higher elevations and lower 20s in
the broader valleys for Saturday morning.
For the snow shower component - With temperatures falling into the
mid 20s to mid 30s range, that means we get to talk snow. Low-level
moisture is expected to linger into midday Saturday. With the
persistent northwest flow, orographic lift is expected for our
northwest facing mountains. Snow levels appear like they could make
it near the valley floors, but high froude values and incoming dry
air will generally favor accumulations above 1500 ft agl. So even as
far down as Burlington could feasibly observe snow, but it`s more
likely to be just a quick dusting for the Adirondacks, Northeast
Kingdom, and summits of the Green Mountains. Snowfall amounts for
these areas will be generally 1" or less, but 2" could feasibly
occur atop mountain peaks above 3000 ft.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Mid/upper trof wl be replaced by zonal flow with some
potential for developing southeast CONUS ridge to expand into the
Mid Atlantic/NE CONUS by early next week. This large scale synoptic
pattern supports temps trending above normal levels by early next
week with mostly dry conditions prevailing. We can never completely
rule out a weak embedded short wave in the fast zonal flow aloft,
producing a low probability (<20%) of precip. However, pw values are
mostly in the 0.40 to 0.65" range or a STD below normal for most of
the upcoming week. The 925mb to 850mb waa on Sunday into Monday is
supported by moderately strong llvl jet of 30 to 40 knots as
gradient btwn 1032mb high pres over southern New England and weak
1010mb low pres over Hudson Bay strengthens. The wind gusts provided
by WPC look too low, especially summits on Sunday night into Monday,
where gusts of 30 to 40 mph wl be likely based on wind fields and
sounding profiles. This broad southwest flow wl help to advect much
warmer 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles into our cwa starting Sunday
and prevailing into Monday and Tuesday of next week. Some hints at a
potential cooling trend toward midweek as 1032mb high pres from
central Canada noses toward our cwa. Still a rather large spread in
potential timing and magnitude of caa, along with any impacts.
Sunday morning could be the coldest of the fall season with lows
ranging from near 20F SLK/NEK to l/m 30s near Lake Champlain, but
still some question with regards to wind profiles and lingering
clouds in the nw flow aloft. Temps rebound into the mid 40s NEK to
mid 50s SLV on Sunday under developing southerly flow. Another cool
night is anticipated Sunday night into Monday, especially east of
the Green, where bl wind may decouple in the deeper/protected
valleys. Lows generally mid 20s eastern/central VT to mid/upper 30s
Lake Champlain. Warming trend continues on Monday and Tuesday with
highs mid 50s to l/m 60s with mostly sunny skies expected.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...While there will be some variability in
flight conditions this evening through tonight, the majority of
TAF sites will remain MVFR through around sunrise Thursday
morning, then improve to VFR later Thursday morning.
More specifically, highest probabilities of low stratus with
IFR ceilings will remain over higher elevations of the northern
Adirondacks, especially over KSLK, through 07Z. Meanwhile, TAF
sites over the broader valleys, including KMSS, KBTV, KPBG, and
KRUT, will see ceilings generally between 2000 and 4000 ft AGL
through the evening. Have included some TEMPO groups to account
for ceilings varying between MVFR and VFR levels at these
sites. After 00Z, expect MVFR ceilings to settle at these sites
for the remainder of the night.
Winds will be from the west/northwest, with some localized gusts
up to 20 knots overnight.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. Definite SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Likely SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
North to northwest winds are expected to briefly ramp up across
Lake Champlain overnight, especially in the broad and southern
waters. Winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots from about
midnight through 7am tomorrow before gradually subsiding. In
this span of time, the southern half of Lake Champlain could see
wave heights build to 2 to 4 feet.
&&
.CLIMATE...
On Saturday, daily low maximum temperatures are likely. Current
records are indicated below at some climate sites in our
region:
Record Low Maximum Temperatures:
October 17:
KBTV: 42/1970
KPBG: 44/2015
KSLK: 36/1970
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter located at Mt. Ascutney has
been damaged due to the storms from yesterday. Technicians are
heading over to determine repair needs. Alternative transmitters
that users may be able to connect to are Burke Mountain WWG50 at
162.425 MHz or Hanover WNG545 at 162.525 MHz.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Taber/Haynes
AVIATION...Duell
MARINE...Haynes
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...Haynes
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