944
FXUS61 KBTV 151100
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
700 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...
Risk for gusty winds on Friday has increased, mainly in the
Champlain Valley.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...
1. After a quiet day today, a storm system brings gusty winds,
rain, and mountain snow Friday through Saturday.
2. Temperatures trend near to below normal Sunday night through
Thursday with mostly dry conditions prevailing.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Other than some patchy drizzle/fog early this morning,
expect today will be a dry day with skies becoming partly sunny.
Winds will subside as high pressure builds across the region. Highs
will be seasonable though on the chilly side as most spots will top
out in the 50s.
Things become much more interesting thereafter as an upper trough
digs into the Great Lakes tonight into Friday, eventually swinging
over our region on Saturday. The associated surface low will lift
through the St Lawrence Valley, then move east-northeast through the
Crown of Maine and toward the Canadian Maritimes. Moisture will
stream northward on deep southwest flow ahead of the trough,
resulting in increasing clouds tonight. Given the dry airmass that
will be in place, rain will be a little slower to develop, but
expect widespread precipitation to develop by daybreak Friday. A
potent 55+ kt jet wrapping around the surface low at 850 mb will
move overhead on Friday, leading to very windy conditions atop
mountain summits; gusts of 55-65 mph are likely. Winds at lower
levels are a bit harder to determine, but note that several of the
CAMs indicate we could see a some breaks in the rain mid-day Friday
with the main swath of rain lifting north of the international
border. This means less potential hindrance for mixing, increasing
potential of gusts of 30 mph or more at lower elevations. The
Champlain Valley would be particularly susceptible to strong gusts
due to channeling of the south winds up the Valley. Note that the
15/00z HREF indicates 85-100% probabilities of gusts greater than 40
mph along Lake Champlain and the eastern side of the Champlain
Valley, from the international border down toward Hinesburg and
Bristol. The northern slopes of the northern Greens have similar
chances of strong winds, with 90+% in locations such as Newport,
Montgomery, and Glover. Have bumped up gusts with this forecast
package, though have kept them below Wind Advisory level (46 mph).
However, it looks like some places could get close to needing an
Advisory; subsequent shifts will need to monitor trends closely.
The surface low pressure slides by just to our north Friday
afternoon, allowing us to nudge into the 50s to close to 60F.
However, once the low moves to our east, its attendant cold front
will quickly sweep through our area, bringing much colder
temperatures later Friday and Friday night. The incoming airmass
will also be quite dry, but expect there will be enough moisture
around to squeeze out a bit of mountain snow later Friday night into
Saturday morning before precipitation ends Saturday afternoon. With
temperatures dropping into the mid 20s to mid 30s by Saturday
morning, even the lower elevations could see a few flakes, though
any accumulation looks to remain limited to 1500 ft and above. Even
there, though, expect an inch at most given the decreasing moisture
and relatively warm ground.
Saturday will see decreasing clouds and much colder temperatures.
Highs will only reach into the mid 30s to low 40s, and expect the
summits to remain in the teens and 20s through the day. Winds will
still be gusty though not quite as strong as Friday. However,
they`ll be enough to produce wind chills in the teens and 20s
Saturday morning, with the higher summits seeing wind chills in the
single digits. Anyone who plans to be recreating in the mountains
should prepare for wet, windy, and bitterly cold conditions Friday
through Saturday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure over the mid-Atlantic is expected to
strengthen Sunday night and Monday, expanding into New England to
start the work week. Global deterministic models differ on the exact
placement of this high pressure, which could have some minor impacts
for coastal New England, but up in northern New York and Vermont,
dry weather seems very likely Sunday night through at least next
Thursday despite a couple week frontal boundaries that swing through
the region. High temperatures each day should remain around
seasonable values in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Nights will remain on
the chilly side with lows in the upper 20s to lower 40s due to the
clearer nights and decoupled boundary layer winds under high
pressure.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions will prevail today through
08Z-10Z Friday with winds out of the north/northwest this
morning at 5-15 knots and gusts up to 20 knots. Winds will
become light and variable this afternoon, then switch out of the
southeast at 03Z-07Z Friday, gusting 15-25 knots early Friday
morning. In addition to this switch and increase in surface
winds, LLWS is anticipated to begin at most, if not all, sites
by the end of the 24 hour TAF period as a strong low level jet
moves overhead. Showers are also anticipated to begin 08Z-10Z
Friday, likely lowering visibilities to 3-6 miles or lower and
dropping ceilings to 3000 feet or lower above ground level.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
North to northwest winds of 15 to 25 kt will continue through
early this morning before gradually winding down by mid day.
After briefly calmer conditions this afternoon and tonight,
south winds will increase again on Friday, sustained 20 to 30 kt
with higher gusts expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily low maximum temperatures will likely be broken on Saturday.
Current records are indicated below at some climate sites in
our region:
Record Low Maximum Temperatures:
October 17:
KBTV: 42/1970
KPBG: 44/2015
KSLK: 36/1970
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Storm
AVIATION...Storm
MARINE...NWS BTV
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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