691
FXUS61 KBTV 090625
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
125 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 124 AM EST Monday...
No significant changes were made with this forecast update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 124 AM EST Monday...
1. Upper low pressure will keep the weather unsettled through
the middle of the week.
2. Monitoring the potential for wintry weather over the
weekend, and plenty of model spread/uncertainty remains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 124 AM EST Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: More of the same dreary weather expected for the first
half of the week. We remain on the periphery of upper low pressure
centered near the Gaspe Peninsula early this morning, with patchy
light rain and drizzle occurring across much of the region. This
activity is associated with a shortwave trough rounding the base of
the trough, and we`ll see a series of these over the next 48-72
hours. As such, periods of showers will continue to plague the
region, particularly today and then again Tuesday into Tuesday
night. As has been the case, most of the precipitation will fall as
rain, with areas AOA 2500 ft mixing with and/or changing to snow
overnight and into the early morning hours. A reinforcing shot of
cold air Tuesday night will bring snow levels as low as 1500 ft or
so, mainly along the international border and the northern
Adirondacks/Greens, and this is the best chance for seeing any
accumulating snow below 2000 ft, though even then, it`ll be pretty
minimal. The cold pool aloft and some meager instability could allow
for more robust showers to produce some graupel both this afternoon
and Tuesday afternoon, along with brief moderately heavy rainfall.
Daytime temperatures will be similar both days, mainly in the mid
40s to low 50s, with the southern St Lawrence/Champlain Valleys
approaching the mid 50s Tuesday afternoon under increasing W/SW
flow. These winds will be on the breezy side Tuesday and Tuesday
evening, particularly at summit level and on the eastern slopes of
the Adirondacks and central/southern Greens. Gusts to 30 mph will be
possible in these locations, with 35 to 45+ mph atop the mountain
summits. Wednesday is looking to be the driest day, with shower
coverage to be confined to the Northeast Kingdom and mainly during
the morning hours. Some sunshine might break through in the
afternoon, but it will remain seasonably cool with highs remaining
in the 40s to around 50F.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A fairly messy weather pattern will prevail for the
latter half of the week. Temperatures appear likely to be about the
same from day-to-day with upper 30s to mid 40s during the day and
20s to lower 30s at night. A high amplitude ridge will build across
the western US while a pair of shortwaves dig well into the
southeastern US on Thursday. These will eventually interact with the
persistent upper low to our north during the weekend. Depending on
the exact track of surface low pressure, the interaction between the
various upper vorts, and which will be most intense will affect the
outlook for Friday into Saturday. Given the broad, disorganized
nature of the upper level features, it seems likely that the thermal
gradient and active subtropical jet could be the deciding factors,
which would favor suppressed, southern solutions. However, raw
ensemble probabilities (both statistical, AI-driven and physics-
based forecasts) suggest it is worth monitoring the potential for
accumulating snow in our forecast area. We recently highlighted
preparedness for winter weather across New England, and so it is
good to be ready whether or not something takes place. Given the
temperature forecast, this would likely be a wet snow with some rain
potential in the valleys, and if there is much in the way of snow,
accumulations will depend on elevation. Weather will turn cool under
northwest flow heading into Sunday and Monday, with orographic,
upslope snow showers possible.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...A trough is shifting east across northern New
York and Vermont at this time. It is producing scattered showers
across our terminals and starting to reduce ceilings across the
region. Ceilings should trend 700-2500 ft agl in the next couple
hours for almost all terminals, and then stay largely steady state
through about 13-15z. Winds will be light and variable or
southwesterly much of the night, and then at that 13-15z window will
transition to west-northwest or northwest winds. In combination with
a little daylight, ceilings should lift some towards 2000-5000 ft
agl. It`ll be during this transition time that shower chances will
briefly drop, but hit-or- miss activity will likely return during the
afternoon and evening beneath a cold upper low passing overhead.
Shower activity will begin to diminish, with ceilings lingering
around 2000-4000 ft agl overnight with west to northwest winds 5-10
knots, with gusts 15-18 knots for eastern slopes.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Patchy BR.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA.
Veterans Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes
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