873
FXUS61 KBTV 310603
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
203 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional rain will continue today as low pressure slowly spins
over the region. Winds will turn to the west and become gusty this
afternoon and overnight tonight. Colder air will spread in from west
to east later today into tonight, and anticipate rain showers will
mix with and eventually change over to snow across the higher
terrain tonight. Showers will gradually come to an end on Saturday,
lingering longest in the higher terrain, where a few inches of snow
accumulation will be possible, mainly above 1500 ft.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 201 AM EDT Friday...While winds have been fairly strong across
the higher terrain (gusts up to 60 mph on Mt Mansfield and 70 mph on
Whiteface), these haven`t quite made it down to lower elevations as
was expected. Gusts to 40 mph have been more common below 2000 ft,
and with the core of the low level jet exiting in the next hour or
so, would anticipate winds will perhaps hold steady for a bit before
subsiding through daybreak. We have noted an increase in reported
power outages in some of the mountain/western slope towns overnight,
though numbers have trended downward from their peak a few hours
ago. With that in mind, have gone ahead and cancelled the Wind
Advisory for the western slopes of the Green Mountains.
Vertically stacked low pressure is currently centered over western
NY early this morning with a weaker surface low developing along the
southern New England coast. The primary low will eventually give way
to the secondary low as it lifts through southern New England and
into NH/ME by this afternoon. Winds will lessen as we remain under a
relaxed pressure gradient, but as the low moves to our east and
deepens, we`ll once again see winds increase as the pressure
gradient tightens. This time flow will be from the west/northwest as
we`ll be on the backside of the low, so it will be the eastern
downslope sides of the Adirondacks and Greens that will see the
breeziest conditions. Gusts to 40 mph will be possible in these
locations later today and overnight, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph
expected elsewhere.
Periods of rain will continue through mid morning or so, then we
should see a brief break from the steadier rain. However, once winds
shift to the west, precipitation will fill back in, especially along
the western slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens, and back into the
eastern Champlain Valley and St Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will
start to fall in the meantime as cold air advection moves in on the
breezy winds. The higher terrain will be the first to see
temperatures drop close to freezing, allowing rain to mix with and
turn over to snow. Snow levels will continue to fall through the
evening and overnight hours, and expect areas above 1500 ft will see
at least a little of the white stuff by early Saturday morning. A
few inches of accumulation will be possible above 2000 ft. Highs
today will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s, though they`ll
likely be early across northern NY as colder air will start to move
in there this afternoon. Temperatures will only be in the mid 30s to
low 40s come evening time; when combined with the gusty winds, it`ll
feel more like mid 20s to mid 30s, so bundle up if you`ll be
outdoors. Continuing cold air advection will drop temperatures into
the 30s areawide tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 201 AM EDT Friday...Low pressure will continue to pull away to
our east on Saturday, keeping us under brisk northwest flow. Upslope
mountain showers will slowly wane through the day, with just a
little additional snow accumulation possible at summit level.
Continuing cold air advection will keep temperatures on the cold
side, and expect highs will only top out in the upper 30s to
mid/upper 40s, coldest in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom.
This colder trend will continue Saturday night with lows dipping
into the mid 20s to mid 30s. While Sunday will only be a few degrees
warmer than Saturday, winds will be much lighter and there should be
more sunshine, especially away from the Northeast Kingdom. Highs on
Sunday will be in the 40s to around 50F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 201 AM EDT Friday...A cool start in the lower 20s to lower 30s
will give way to 50s in increasing south to southwest flow as high
pressure moves offshore on Monday. By afternoon, a cold front will
approach the region, racing ahead of a northern stream upper trough.
There`s a southern stream lifting up the Gulf Stream. We should get
precipitation from the northern stream upper trough and behind the
frontal boundary Monday night; however, any additional precipitation
will be less likely as the systems don`t phase until well east of
our region. A little shower activity is possible in west-northwest
flow, but the mid-levels dry rather fast. Behind the system will be
fairly seasonable conditions for early November, and then an Alberta
Clipper type system is poised for next Wednesday evening into
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Surface low pressure is approaching Vermont
and northern New York. Flight conditions range from IFR at KMSS due
to 700 ft agl ceilings, up to VFR. Winds will gradually decrease as
low pressure moves overhead. Rain will become more persistent as the
surface low lifts north between about 09z and 13z. Near the low
center, the combination of rain and increased humidity will result
in a brief period of 2-5SM visibility and 500-1200 ft agl ceilings.
TEMPOs have been used to indicate the potential for changeable
conditions near the low. Winds aloft remain 35 to 50 knots out of
the southeast at 2000 ft agl, and areas of LLWS will continue
through about 09z to 10z. Once surface low pressure moves into
Canada, winds will trend back to the southwest at 6 to 12 knots
sustained with gusts to 20 knots and precipitation will become more
scattered. Flight conditions should improve in the 13z-20z time
frame, except at KMSS, and perhaps KSLK, which will remain in rain
and IFR ceilings. Around 19z-22z, winds will trend towards the west
or west-northwest. Additional rain will angle back southwards with
ceilings falling again to 700-1500 ft agl. Winds will also
accelerate to 10 to 15 knots sustained with gusts 20 to 30 knots
possible.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect from this afternoon through at
least tonight. While winds will be on the lighter side this
morning, they will increase out of the west to northwest this
afternoon and remain gusty overnight. Sustained winds of 15 to
25 kt with gusts to 30 kt late today will increase to 20 to 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt overnight. Waves of 1 to 2 feet will
build to 3 to 5 feet.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
MARINE...BTV
EQUIPMENT...BTV
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