590
FXUS61 KBTV 040607
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
107 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak clipper like system will move across the region tonight
with rain and high elevation mountain snow showers, along with
gusty southwest winds. Any snowfall will be confined to summit
level, but wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph will be possible through
Tuesday. Rainfall will range from a few hundredths to several
tenths in the mountains by Tuesday. Another slightly stronger
clipper system impacts our region on Wednesday with more showers
and breezy conditions. Temperatures are near seasonable levels
for most of this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 138 PM EST Monday...GOES-19 water vapor shows potent
mid/upper lvl trof acrs the eastern Great Lakes with some
enhanced mid lvl moisture. Texture of clouds/deeper vertical
development is noted over the northern Great Lakes, associated
with stronger lift/dynamics and this area of enhancement wl move
acrs our cwa tonight. However, system is moving fast and deep
layer moisture is limited so qpf a few hundredths to several
tenths in the mtns. Its a classic high pop/low qpf clipper like
system with some downslope shadowing likely here in the CPV
associated with southwest 925mb to 850mb flow of 35 to 50 knots.
Initially snow levels are near summit level 4500 feet, but btwn
00z-03z progged 850mb temps fall btwn -1C and -2C acrs the
dacks and northern Greens, which should bring snow levels down
to 3500 to 4000 feet. Unfortunately, system is very progressive
and as temp profiles cont to cool and snow levels lower toward
12z, moisture wl be fading, so basically an inch or two above
3000 feet is expected. Did hold 30% to 50% pops acrs the NEK
thru midday Tuesday.
Next challenge wl be several periods of gusty winds ahead and
behind the system. First gusty south/southwest winds continue at
30 to 45 mph this evening, associated with 925mb to 850mb winds
of 35 to 50 knots and good mixing. A brief break in the gusty
winds are likely when precip is falling, but behind the precip,
expect gusty west/northwest winds at 30 to 45 mph on Tues. These
wl be highest on eastern slopes of the Dacks and east side of
the Greens from near Stowe to Ludlow. Sounding profile show top
of the mixed layer of 45 to 50 knots, while bottom values are 30
to 35 knots, so taking the average should result peak gusts in
the 35 to 40 knot range on Tues in favorable downslope areas. A
few power outages are possible, but widespread wind advisory
criteria is not expected. Temps are a bit tricky with a mild
evening to start, but should cool toward 12z Tues as modest caa
develops. Tuesday temps range from near freezing summits to
lower 50s deeper valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 138 PM EST Monday...Weak mid/upper lvl ridge develops
Tues night, before initial waa moisture arrives by 12z Weds. A
band of light rain/mtn snow is likely during the Weds AM
commute, given waa/available 850 to 500mb moisture and weak
embedded 5h vort aloft. QPF wl be very light with some precip
having difficulties reaching the ground on Weds AM. As 998mb low
pres tracks directly overhead on Weds/Weds night, areal
coverage of precip wl increase. Initially thermal profiles
support some rain/snow likely, with snow levels near 1800 feet
over the northern/central Greens and parts of the NEK of VT on
Weds. Some dynamic and evaporational cooling helps to lower
progged 850mb temps btwn -1C and -3C, to support this thinking.
A quick coating to a slushy inch is possible with initial surge.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF show 998mb low pres tracking from near KART to
KSLK to 1V4, which could keep northern mtns on cold side and
thermal profiles just cool enough to support mostly snow in the
mtns above 2000. For now I have 4 to 6 inches at summit level
from Mansfield to Jay Peak and 1 to 4 inches btwn 2000 and 3000
feet on Weds/Weds night. Impacts look to be minimal, maybe a few
mtn passes getting a light slushy snow accumulation on Weds
night. Given stronger system and better track of low pres,
expect qpf in the 0.15 to 0.50 range with some higher amounts in
the trrn. Temps warm mid 30s to near 50F on Weds and cool back
into the 20s to near 40 by Thurs morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 138 PM EST Monday...As mentioned last night, our area
remains in an active weather pattern in the late week time frame
as the mean core of the northern stream westerlies continue
their seasonal migration southward into the northern tier of the
country. No less than 3 discrete systems are on track to cross
the region during the period, the first coming Wed/Wed night,
with the others swinging through Friday/Friday night and again
by next Sunday/Sunday night. The general idea is to run with
higher, 60-90% precipitation probabilities with each system, the
dominant p-type falling largely as rain in the lower
elevations. A mix of rains/wet snows at elevation is more likely
on the back side of these features, especially Wednesday night
and potentially by next Sunday night as deeper meridional
troughing digs across the eastern third of the CONUS.
Temperatures to remain seasonably cool through the period, with
diurnal variation somewhat tempered by an abundance of typical
November cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A strongly terrain-driven sky cover and ceilings forecast will
result from westerly flow and shallow cloud depths early in the
period. Enough upslope flow at SLK will tend to linger MVFR
ceilings, although cloud bases should trend upwards after 12Z when
VFR conditions are favored (probabilities exceeding 65%). Have gone
a little more pessimistic with a 14Z cessation time. At EFK where
MVFR ceilings also are present, moisture will erode more slowly with
scattered showers continuing to move through the area. Here MVFR
conditions are more uncertain through the day and may be changeable
through much of the period as skies remain BKN or OVC. Otherwise,
low probabilities of MVFR conditions will continue at other sites.
At SLK, MPV, and EFK, wind gusts should be persistent in the 20-29
knot range for much of the next six hours, while diminishing
temporarily at BTV. Thereafter, from 12Z through about 20Z all sites
will see gusty west-northwest winds. Following sunrise and surface
winds diminishing, enough wind off the deck will continue to
result in additional LLWS, especially at PBG, EFK, and MPV.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty south to southwest winds of 15 to 30 knots will shift to
the northwest by daybreak on Tuesday and increase to 25 to 35
knots with gusts up to 40 knots possible. As precipitation
develops, a period of lighter winds are expected overnight
tonight. Wave mostly in the 2 to 5 foot range during the period.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Kutikoff
MARINE...WFO BTV
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