546
FXUS61 KBTV 292324
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
724 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will bring seasonably cool and dry
conditions through the end of the work week. Rounds of showers are
expected late Saturday morning and afternoon, potentially
heavy. After warmer weather and a brief break in precipitation
Sunday, showers and cooler temperatures will return Sunday
night. Then, drier and cooler weather conditions will return
for the rest of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 654 PM EDT Thursday...Previous forecast remains in
excellent shape this evening. A few clouds linger across the
Adirondacks but show signs of eroding with the loss of diurnal
heating. This should help set the stage for rapidly falling
temperatures under clear skies which should lead to widespread
valley fog across the North Country overnight. It`ll be a good
night to crack some windows to help cool off with lows in the
40s and 50s.
Previous Discussion...Weather conditions remain very lovely
outside. We`ve now reached the anticipated upper 60s to mid 70s.
Overnight, radiational cooling will initially be very
efficient, but as surface high pressure begins to slide east,
south to southeast flow will begin to increase. Most locations
should be about 5 degrees warmer than last night, but parts of
the Northeast Kingdom under the influence of the high and
sheltered from southeast winds should have another night in the
mid 40s. Cool hollows of the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont
should reach the upper 40s to lower 50s, while the broader
valleys fall into the mid to upper 50s. Some fog may develop
initially, but it should scatter fairly quickly with the sunrise
and increasing clouds.
Tightening pressure gradients mean that increasingly breezy
conditions will greet people leaving their homes Friday morning.
A tongue of dry air is going to dry to hold on across the
region, but a weak mid-level trough will nose into northern New
York Friday afternoon. We acquiesced to mention slight chance
PoPs in St. Lawrence County as forecast soundings suggest there
could be enough moisture with the push of warm advection to
allow a spot sprinkle or two. Otherwise, mostly dry weather is
expected, especially across Vermont. High temperatures will
climb into the 70s, and it wouldn`t be impossible to find an 80
or two amongst reliable networks tomorrow. Friday night will be
warmer with south winds continuing to increase to 10 to 20 mph,
locally 25 to 30 in the northern Champlain Valley. East of the
Greens should and sheltered portions of the Dacks should fall
into the 50s, but the Champlain Valley and St. Lawrence Valley
will remain in the low to mid 60s. Model timing has sped up
somewhat for the arrival of showers and increased PoPs and QPF across
the St. Lawrence River heading into Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...A prefrontal trough will continue to move
eastward during the day on Saturday, bringing some fairly widespread
showers to the region. Plenty of available moisture, with PWAT
values in excess of 1.5 inches and closer to 2.0 inches in some
places, and warm cloud depths of 12+ kft will allow for efficient
rainfall processes, with some moderate to heavy rainfall possible as
the feature moves through. There will be very little instability
available, which will limit the potential for thunder. Overall
rainfall amounts continue to be around an inch or less, which local
rivers and streams should be able to handle without issue, although
if any training or back- building cells develop there could be an
isolated flood threat given the potential heavy rainfall rates, and
WPC has the region in an Marginal Risk in the Day 3 Excessive
Rainfall Outlook. Temperatures during the day on Saturday will be on
the cooler side, generally in the 70s, given the expected showers
and cloud cover. Shower activity will taper off Saturday night as
the prefrontal trough exits the region, although lingering moisture
and cloud cover will make for a mild night, with low temperatures in
the 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...A cold front will push through the region
on Sunday, bringing additional chances for showers towards the
afternoon, although the morning will start out on the drier side.
The areal coverage of showers on Saturday looks to be lesser
compared to Saturday, with less moisture available. The drier
conditions during the morning will allow for high temperatures to
warm into the upper 70s to low 80s, which will allow for steepening
lapse rates and some breezy southwesterly winds. Some thunder will
be possible, although model soundings show limited instability
during the day. The cold front will push through the region, exiting
late Sunday night into early Monday morning, with overnight lows in
the 40s to mid 50s expected.
Heading into the beginning of next week, cooler and drier
conditions will return behind the cold front as high pressure
settles over the Northeast. Highs during the day on Monday will
only be in the 60s to about 70, with brisk northwesterly winds.
Overnight lows Monday night will also be on the cool, with
temperatures generally in the 40s to low 50s by Lake Champlain.
Daytime highs will gradually warm throughout the week, climbing
into the 70s by the middle of the week and overnight lows in the
mid 40s to 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Sfc analysis places 1025mb high pres over
northern Maine with light north/northeast flow of 4 to 8 knots
across our taf sites this evening. These winds should become
light and terrain driven by 03z with some fog developing btwn
05-07z at SLK/MPV and EFK. Given sounding data and crnt dwpts,
feel likely probability (60%) at MPV with 40-50% at EFK/SLK for
IFR or lower conditions. Any lingering fog/IFR will dissipate by
12z as sfc flow increases from the south/southeast at 5 to 10
knots with localized gusts 15 to 20 knots possible aft 16z. VFR
conditions prevail at all sites on Friday from 12z to 00z.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Labor Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Clay/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber
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