962
FXUS61 KBTV 250540
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
140 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms will continue into this evening, before
weakening and moving out of the region overnight. A cold front
moves through with little fanfare tomorrow, at most bringing a
few scattered showers, mainly over northern areas. Behind the
front, it will become noticeably drier and cooler, setting the
stage for a pleasant weekend. Dry weather will continue into
early next week but the heat and humidity will start to build.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 128 AM EDT Thursday...Shower activity continues across
the region tonight, although much weaker compared to those
earlier this evening with little to know lightning seen. No
major changes were needed with this update, just small
adjustments to temperatures and precipitation to better reflect
the latest trends.
Previous Discussion...Some areas of showers and thunderstorms
have developed across northern New York. A few of these will be
strong to severe, capable of producing damaging winds and small
hail. Areas that have seen training storms could see localized
flash flooding. They will attempt to form a broken line as they
move eastward into Vermont. The showers will gradually weaken a
bit as they travel into Vermont as they will be entering a less
favorable environment. While northern New York had been in the
sun all morning and the atmosphere was able to destabilize
significantly, there have been more clouds and a more marine
modified airmass over Vermont, particularly east of the Greens.
While they will likely remain thunderstorms, the severe threat
is lower over Vermont. RAP estimated CAPE is up to around
1000-2000 J/KG over northern New York while it decreases to
around 500 J/KG in the Connecticut River Valley. The storms will
move out to the east this evening. There could be a few
lingering showers overnight but they will likely not contain any
lightning. Strong boundary layer winds should prevent much fog
formation tonight, despite plenty of recent rainfall. The actual
cold front will move through tomorrow with little fanfare. It
could cause a shower or two to develop but they will not be
severe. There will be a few wrap around showers over northern
areas but these should be light and insignificant. Any rain
chances will end overnight. The cold front will usher in
noticeably drier and cooler weather, with dew points falling
into the 50s and temperatures falling into the 50s and low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...Any lingering shower activity should be
out of the area on Friday. Dry, deep layer northwest flow should
yield an excellent start to the weekend. Anticipate seasonable
temperatures rising into the mid 70s to lower 80s Friday afternoon.
It looks like it could be a good radiational cooling night based on
forecast soundings, and nudged temperatures towards NBM 25th
percentiles and some cooler MOS guidance. This placed some spot
upper 40s in the Adirondacks, mainly 50s for Vermont and northern
New York, and some locations still around 60 near Lake Champlain.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will be in control for
several days. Helping large scale subsidence and maintaining dry air
in our region will be an upper low south of the 40 N, 70 W point. So
get ready for a fantastic weekend of pleasant weather. A south wind
will start to pick up late this weekend. Sunday will be notably
warmer, and could approach 90 in the broader valleys, and likely
reach it near Springfield, VT. Then by Monday, 925hPa temperatures
climb up above 23 C, and that should be enough to start reaching up
and over 90 across a larger number of locations. Towards the middle
of next week, the upper low will begin to dissipate and get absorbed
into another trough tracking eastwards. This feature appears to move
quite slowly. At least the increasing cloud cover and falling
heights should knock some of the edge off the heat, but we`re
probably looking at the return for daily scattered showers and
thunderstorms as early as next Tuesday and likely by next Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z Friday...CUrrently a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions
across the region tonight as scattered showers continue to push
through the region. MVFR ceilings will be most likely at KSLK,
KMPV, and KEFK, although some brief IFR cannot be ruled out with
the greatest potential between 09Z and 12Z. After 12Z, all
terminals will begin to trend towards VFR as drier air begins to
move into the region. Southerly winds will shift, becoming
northwesterly during the day tomorrow with some gusts possible
during the afternoon.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Kremer
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