339
FXUS61 KBTV 190712
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
312 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High temperatures will trend warmer each day through Tuesday with
high pressure centered over the North Country. Patchy frost will be
possible again tonight, but overnight temperatures should gradually
warm over the next few days thereafter. Our next chance of rain
doesn`t arrive until the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 312 AM EDT Saturday...Another cool and frosty start out there
this morning with temperatures mainly in the upper 20s to upper 30s.
Have therefore allowed the Frost Advisory to continue for the
Champlain Valley, in effect until 8 am. High pressure will be
directly overhead today, and the subsidence inversion is pretty
evident as temperatures are quite a bit warmer at higher elevations;
Whiteface is currently 50F. It`s also notable just how dry the
airmass is, with Whiteface`s dewpoint of -13F. Today will be yet
another day with bright sunshine, and while we may not see quite as
much mixing as yesterday, expect we`ll once again see highs several
degrees above guidance. Mid 60s to around 70F definitely seems
reasonable at this point. Tonight should be a few degrees warmer
than what we`re seeing this morning, but patchy frost is still
possible; subsequent shifts may need to consider additional frost
headlines.
The ridge axis shifts just a bit to our south and east on Sunday.
Still anticipate a dry and mostly sunny day, but south/southwest
winds will be a little breezier as the gradient flow increases. Some
mid/high clouds will spread across the international border in the
afternoon, but overall sunshine will prevail. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 252 PM EDT Friday...It`ll be a warm day on Sunday. After
another morning with some patchy frost, increasing southwesterly
flow will advect warmer air into the region. So temperatures will
top out into the mid 60s to lower 70s with partly cloudy skies from
some upper moisture. Overnight lows will trend warmer due to
southwest flow. Cold hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom could still settle into the upper 30s, but most will remain
in the 40s with lower 50s in the broader Champlain and St. Lawrence
Valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 252 PM EDT Friday...Some impressive warmth is coming our way
early next week. The surface trough passing well to our north will
invite a very warm air mass into the region. 925hPa temperatures
will rise towards 15 to 17 C. Coupled with the loss of greenery and
abundant dry air, our heating should be very efficient despite the
declining solar angle. A few climate sites may come within 3 degrees
of some daily record max temperatures on Monday and Tuesday (records
range from mid 70s to lower 80s). Finally, by Wednesday, high
pressure will start to shift east in the face of a small, but potent
upper trough. Increasing clouds and decreasing thicknesses will take
off a few degrees from the warmth, but Wednesday will still be
plenty warm with mid 60s to lower 70s. Expect warm lows as well that
put us back in the territory of good open window nights.
On Wednesday night, a few showers should begin to eke into northern
New York ahead of the aforementioned shortwave. The bulk of
precipitation will be along and behind the front Thursday morning
and afternoon as the trough quickly wraps up into a compact upper
low. The front will slide east and strong cold advection will
quickly turn our warmth on Wednesday to upper 40s and mid 50s on
Thursday. Some snow could mix in on the backside of precipitation
Thursday evening, but dry air looks to quickly filter in. Based on
ensemble forecast guidance, cool weather will be short-lived with
anomalous ridging set to retake its place over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Quiet weather and VFR conditions will
prevail through TAF period. The only caveat will be potential
for morning fog/freezing fog resulting in some IFR/LIFR at
MPV/SLK/KMSS 08-13Z. Winds will remain light and variable,
except southwest 5-8 kt at KMSS after 12z.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002-005-009.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Hastings
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