551
FXUS61 KBTV 062345
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
745 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue across our region through
midweek with intervals of showers. The greatest potential for
showers on Wednesday will be across central and northern Vermont as
temperatures climb into the mid 60s to lower 70s. On Thursday, the
highest chances for measurable precipitation will be across the
higher terrain of northern New York and Vermont with cooler
temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Additional rainfall is
possible on Friday into Saturday across portions of our region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 642 PM EDT Tuesday...We continue to remain on the
periphery of the trough which lies to our west this evening.
Drier air is wrapping around the trough and spreading into
southern/western portions of our forecast area at this hour.
This has helped to keep the bulk of the shower activity
positioned just off to our south, with scattered showers
occasionally moving across central/southern Franklin and St
Lawrence Counties in NY while Jefferson and Lewis Counties
southward continue to see widespread moderate to heavy rain.
Showers have been pretty isolated from the Adirondacks eastward
with little in the way of precipitation over the past couple of
hours. Expect this will be the overall trend through the rest of
this evening and overnight, and have adjusted PoPs accordingly.
There could still be a few rumbles of thunder across mainly the
St Lawrence Valley where the latest SPC mesoanalysis still shows
500+ J/kg of SB CAPE. Otherwise, expect ample clouds to hang
around much of the night, though there may be some periods of
clearer skies as the aforementioned dry air spreads
northeastward. Temperatures are generally in the mid 50s to
upper 60s, and with ample moisture to continue overnight,
radiational cooling will be limited. The forecast has this
mostly covered, so other than the aforementioned changes to
PoPs, no changes were needed with this update.
Previous discussion...GOES-19 shows a negatively tilted and
vertically stack cyclonic circulation over western PA this aftn
with deep southeast flow acrs our fa. Instability with abundant
cloud cover has been limited this aftn with LAPS analysis
indicating just a few pockets of sfc based CAPE values in the
500-750 J/kg range over parts of the SLV. We cont to expect a
few rumbles of thunder as instability approaches 1000 J/kg thru
early this evening over SLV, but best probability of svr conts
to be south of our cwa, where lighting activity is much higher.
East/southeast deep layer flow wl produce intervals of showers
lifting from south to north acrs most of VT overnight. Timing
individual ribbons of moisture in deep closed cyclonic
circulation is challenging, along with placement of heaviest
qpf. However, east/southeast facing slopes of the Greens/Dacks
have the best potential for qpf and highest pops. As instability
wanes toward midnight, coverage/intensity should weaken with
decreasing pops. Lows given the clouds and higher sfc dwpts in
the 50s, wl stay in the upper 40s to upper 50s areawide.
On Weds mid/upper lvl trof and associated cool pool aloft with
progged 500mb temps near -20C moves directly overhead. The synoptic
scale lift with trof and developing thermodynamics with cool
pool aloft wl produce additional showers on Weds. The best
combination of moisture/instability looks to be acrs
central/northern and eastern VT, where I have continued with
likely pops. Instability is pretty minimal with sfc based CAPE
values of 200-400 J/kg, so thunder potential is rather low.
Highs similar to today with values in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Areal coverage of precip wl become more trrn focused as winds
shift to the west/northwest behind departing trof. Have highest
likley pops in northern NY and western Slopes/northern VT for
Weds night. Lows cooler than previous couple of night with
lowering sfc dwpts.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 358 PM EDT Tuesday...Thursday and Thursday night are now
looking a bit more active than before as some shortwave energy will
be passing overhead associated with upper level trough passage.
There will also be a low pressure system passing along the New
England coast. A surface trough extends north from this low and will
be focus for some showers in our area. High temperatures will be
cool on Thursday, mainly ranging through the 50s but some 60s in
southern Vermont will be possible also. Minimum temperatures
Thursday night will dip into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Best chance
for showers during this timeframe will be Thursday night and also
focused across central and southern Vermont.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 358 PM EDT Tuesday...Aforementioned low along New England coast
will be slow moving and will lift from near the New Jersey coast on
Friday morning, northeastward towards Cape Cod on Saturday morning.
Moisture wraps around this low, as well as surface troughs extending
out from surface low to spread some showers into our southeastern
zones on Saturday. Feel that NBM was too low for PoPs on Saturday so
have blended in SuperBlend but still tried to remain within
consistency with my neighbors. Our weather will then turn quieter
Sunday through Tuesday as a ridge of surface high pressure will
finally build into the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday... A few showers are making their way though
parts of the region, but none of them seem heavy enough to
significantly reduce visibilities, and that should continue to be
the case. Conditions should trend drier as the evening goes on,
though there are relatively few showers to begin with. Showers will
redevelop during the day tomorrow and a few of these may briefly
reduce visibilities to MVFR, or possibly IFR. Some LLWS develops
tonight in places, but even where it does not meet criteria, there
will still be strong wind shear. Winds will continue southeasterly
this evening before gradually becoming more southerly and
southwesterly later tonight and into the day tomorrow. Ceilings will
drop a little this evening, and it may be enough for MPV to reach
IFR at times. Other than that, it will be a mix of MVFR and VFR
ceilings with no sharp trends.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Myskowski
|
