669
FXUS61 KBTV 280544
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
144 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Today will feature increasing amounts of sunshine with
temperatures warming back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. The trend
of above normal temperatures will continue tomorrow and Tuesday
before cooler air arrives mid to late week, associated with a dry
cold front. No precipitation is expected this upcoming week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 137 AM EDT Sunday...Skies will continue clearing for the
rest of this morning as a warm front lift northeastward. A
weak, dry cold front and associated mid level moisture axis will
move through the forecast area around the early afternoon time
period, bringing a few additional clouds and west/northwesterly
gusts 10-20 knots, but no forecast rainfall. We expect
temperatures to rise into the mid 70s to lower 80s (10-15
degrees above seasonable averages) by the late afternoon today
with minimum relative humidity values falling into the 35-60%
range.
Tonight, high pressure builds in from the Midwest and Great Lakes,
producing a clear night, light surface winds, and fairly favorable
radiational cooling conditions. One limiting factor will be an
overall unseasonably warm air mass in place, but surface
temperatures could fall as low as the 40s to mid 50s during the pre-
dawn hours tomorrow morning, and patchy valley fog is possible in
the typical spots. Tomorrow will be quiet and similar to today with
high pressure triggering abundant sunshine and highs climbing into
the mid 70s to lower 80s. Winds should be largely light out of the
west/southwest with perhaps some localized gusts up to 10-20 knots
in northern areas. Drier air aloft is expected to mix efficiently
down to the surface, resulting in relative humidity values as low as
30-45%.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 137 AM EDT Sunday...A dry backdoor cold front is anticipated to
slide through the forecast area Monday night, bringing with it a
band of enhanced mid to upper level moisture and a tightening
thermal gradient. We`ll see a few additional clouds overnight plus a
light northerly wind. With the slight increase in winds of the
boundary layer, we shouldn`t see too much fog development outside of
protected valley locations. Lows are forecast to be mild in the 40s
to mid 50s. Cooler air flowing in will keep highs Tuesday in the mid
60s to mid 70s, still a touch above normal under full sun despite
northerly winds with gusts up to 15-20 knots as we sit on the
northeastern edge of the upper level high pressure.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 137 AM EDT Sunday...Northerly, cooler flow will continue to
pour into the forecast area midweek into late week as Canadian
surface high pressure builds in from the north/northwest. Tuesday
night and Wednesday are likely to be especially gusty before high
pressure sits more directly overhead and calms winds a bit.
Northerly winds could gust as high as 15-25 knots Wednesday,
particularly over Lake Champlain and the rest of the Champlain
Valley due to north-south channeling. Highs will only reach the
upper 50s and 60s for most Wednesday through Friday, and lows will
be able to fall into the upper 20s to lower 40s.
Concern for frost and freeze remains Tuesday night through Thursday
night, but the elevated winds may prevent efficient frost formation
after all. However, isolated freeze conditions are still possible
across portions of Vermont regardless of winds. Temperatures next
weekend will start to increase again with highs potentially rising
back into the lower and mid 70s as the high sinks farther south and
advects in a warmer air mass into the forecast area. Lows also look
to follow suit in the upper 30s to lower 50s, reducing the risk of
frost again.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
entire TAF period outside of perhaps some BKN-SCT clouds at
about 2000-3000 feet above ground level at SLK and MPV through
about 12Z Sunday. Otherwise, areas that clear out may have brief
attempts at fogging in, most likely at SLK, MPV, and MSS.
Overall, confidence is low on where and when any IFR vis or cig
restrictions may occur, so this is not explicitly in the TAF
product. A weak frontal boundary will cross from north to south
late morning to early afternoon, bringing a period of increased
cloud coverage, though still mostly anticipate VFR. Confidence
has decreased that ceilings will drop below 3000 feet at any
site throughout the day. Clouds will begin to dissipate once
the front moves through, and expect FEW-SCT to dominate by 21z
Sunday. Light southerly winds this morning will turn out of the
west and northwest associated with the frontal passage today
with gusts 15-25 knots likely.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
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