654
FXUS61 KBTV 111726
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
126 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue across the area today with some high
clouds at times and temperatures warming into the 60s. Sunday will
be dry with increasing clouds as temperatures warm back into the 60s
with light winds. Clouds continue to thicken on Sunday night into
Monday with a wetting rainfall event likely for central and southern
Vermont expected. In addition, localized downslope wind gusts up to
35 mph will be possible on Sunday night into Monday over eastern
Rutland County.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 221 AM EDT Saturday...A low level jet tonight has resulted in a
wide range of temps from the upper 20s SLK/eastern VT valleys to l/m
50s CPV, where CRF is gusting to 31 mph. This low level jet is
slowly weakening per KCXX VAD profiles and expect lighter sfc winds
toward sunrise, which wl allow temps to drop into the mid 20s SLK to
mid 30s central VT to l/m 40s SLV/CPV. For today, GOES-19 mid level
water vapor imagery shows compact closed low circulation dropping
south acrs the northern/eastern Great Lakes, with band of rain
showers angling toward the SLV. Radar trends would suggest some
light rain impacting the SLV this morning, but latest 00z guidance
and HRRR continue to move precip south and west of our cwa. Have
just a schc for our western cwa with some mid/upper lvl clouds
impacting our entire region. Progged 925mb temps are rather warm by
18z today with values in the 10-12C, which with sun should support
highs well into the 60s. Tonight is quiet with some patchy frost/fog
possible in a few cooler valley locations, as winds wl be lighter
and skies mostly clear. Deeper moisture starts to approach our
southern cwa by 12z Sunday associated with outer bands of better 500
to 300mb moisture, but no precip is anticipated overnight. Lows
ranging from the l/m 30s to mid/upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 221 AM EDT Saturday...Fcst challenge Sunday into Monday conts
to be pops/qpf and potential for gusty downslope winds. Mid/upper
lvl pattern is complex and messy, just glad we are dealing with
rain, instead of snow for this event, given the large spread in
guidance, potential sharp precip gradient and easterly wind
component. The 00z ECMWF has shifted slightly toward the
GFS/ICON/CMC and UKMET solutions, while NAM is now alone showing
little precip or wind for our cwa. Given easterly 850mb flow of 45
to 55 knots into our southern cwa and associated upslope flow acrs
the central/southern Green Mtn spine, I don`t see how it does
measure precip. Mid/upper lvl pattern is complex with compact short
acrs central PA by 12z Monday, while deep trof with secondary s/w
energy and circulation over the SE CONUS helps to enhance elongated
sfc low pres along the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, a strong
anticyclone remains anchored over northern New England and wl help
to advect drier air/lower dwpts near the International Border during
this event, creating a very sharp north to south qpf/pop gradient
acrs our cwa. Also, this anticyclone wl help to deflect low pres
from riding up along the coast into southern New England. This pres
different btwn the 1030mb high and developing 1000mb low, results in
a strengthening 925mb to 850mb easterly jet of 35 to 55 knots acrs
our southern cwa by Monday. This jet wl help to advect deeper
Atlantic moisture into our cwa, with rain likely developing Sunday
night and continuing into Monday for our central/southern cwa.
I have bumped pops into the high likely range with qpf btwn 0.25 and
0.75, highest acrs the favorable upslope regions of the southern
Green Mtns near Killington to Ludlow. As several rain bands rotate
from sfc low pres and closed mid/upper lvl circulation into
central/northern VT and northern expect them to dissipate given
drier air from high pres. Expecting radar wl be showing virga type
precip further north, with just light qpf anticipated during the
Sunday night/Monday time frame. The exact northern extent of heavier
qpf is tricky, but thinking Interstate 89 south has the best
potential for a wetting rainfall event. GFS ensemble data shows mean
qpf in the 0.50 to 0.75" range, while NBM shows 40 to 60% prob of
qpf >0.50" acrs our southern cwa. Given the easterly wind fields,
expect a trrn driven qpf map from this event.
For winds expect localized easterly downslope winds of 30 to 40 mph
acrs eastern Rutland County on Sunday night into Monday, with much
lighter winds further north away from the jet. Soundings continue to
show some mixed signals on depth of mixing due to inversion height
and developing moist adiabatic profiles as rain arrives, which could
help to stabilize the bl. Otherwise, did knock back temps over
eastern/southern VT mtns on Monday into the 40s, given cool easterly
flow and precip, while SLV warms into the mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 214 AM EDT Saturday...A cool and unsettled weather pattern is
expected across the region next week, with periodic chances for
showers and plenty of cloud cover. There is still a lot of
uncertainty as to any exact timing of any precipitation for next
week given the complex pattern with the departing coastal low,
however there look to be many chances for showers throughout the
week Temperatures will start off quite seasonable early in the week,
with highs generally in the upper 50s and low 60s on Tuesday, with
temperatures trending cooler as the week progresses. By Thursday
temperatures will likely struggle to climb into the 50s in many
locations. Overnight lows will also be on the cold side, with
temperatures near or below freezing, with the exception of locations
near or along Lake Champlain.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR will persist through this forecast
period with BKN/OVC 200-250 CIGs moving in after 12Z Sunday.
Main concern will be for increasing winds and a non-zero chance
of LLWS before SFC gusts increase at RUT around 12Z. Otherwise,
general southerly/southeasterly flow today becoming light
overnight with speeds increasing out of the east after 12Z.
Gradient flow will drive a northeast wind at MSS through the
period. Most terminals could see some gusts up to 15kts 12-18Z
Sunday with RUT experiencing some downsloping winds increasing
east winds 14G24kt. There is about a 20% chance to see a few
gusts to 30kts, but that will depend on the stable layer at
ridge level and how much it can drive winds downslope.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Likely RA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance FZRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Boyd
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