000
FXUS61 KBTV 231120
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
720 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High clouds will continue to increase today as Tropical Storm
Ophelia slowly moves northward into the Mid Atlantic. This system
will remain well to our south through the weekend, with the only
expected impacts being high cloud cover and low chances for showers
in southern Vermont. Much of next week is expected to be dry with
near normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 711 AM EDT Saturday...Minimal changes made with this
update, including increasing winds on summits and adding fog for
the next couple of hours before it dissipates. Still expecting
clouds from Ophelia to keep temperatures in southern Vermont
lower than areas close to the international border today with
highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Previous discussion below:

Previous Discussion...Ophelia will provide a gradient of clouds
stretched across the forecast area this weekend, with high, thin
clouds along the international border and thicker/lower clouds in
southern Vermont. Most of the region for most of the day will be
bone-dry, however, as Ophelia gets hung up in the mid-Atlantic.
There`s about a 20% chance of showers sprinkling across southern
Rutland and Windsor counties this evening through tomorrow with the
excess tropical moisture, but overall conditions should remain quiet
and dry. Both today and tomorrow, highs will be in the mid-60s in
southern zones where clouds persist to the lower 70s in the wider
valleys, especially north. Lows will also be milder tonight with the
insulating cloud cover, and fog chances will be lower overall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Saturday...We will be squeezed between a couple
weather features on Sunday night and Monday which will lead to quiet
weather for our forecast area. Decaying tropical system to our south
and an upper level shortwave approaching from the north, with quiet
weather in between. Will see an increase in clouds on Monday with
shortwave finally crossing our area. Only expect possibility of very
light rain showers in southern Vermont associated with decaying
tropical system. Temperatures will be a few degrees above seasonal
normals for late September.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Saturday...From Monday night through Saturday we
will have an extended period of dry weather as high pressure settles
over the region out of Canada. Daytime maximum temperatures will be
close to seasonal normals while the overnights will be on the cool
side with some radiational cooling conditions possible.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z Sunday...Fog is holding on strong at the classic
sites MPV and SLK while conditions change at PBG, EFK, and MSS.
All sites should return to VFR in the next few hours as fog
dissipates, which will leave us with generally southeasterly
winds today, about 4-8 knots. High clouds from Ophelia will
continue over the next 24 hours, not affecting TAF categories at
any sites. Tonight, fog is expected to start later due to
increased cloud cover from Ophelia, and perhaps be less
widespread as we move another day removed from rainfall.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Storm