711
FXUS61 KBTV 051054
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
654 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control of the region`s weather through
Monday providing mostly clear skies and temperatures climbing well
above normal. Some daily record highs are in jeopardy of being
broken or tied today and Monday. A wetting rainfall looks likely
Tuesday afternoon and night, followed by with cool and dry
conditions returning for the later half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 149 AM EDT Sunday...No precipitation is expected again today as
high pressure remains firmly in place over the region. The only
difference for today compared to yesterday will be another increase
in temperatures as mean 925mb temps around +21C support highs well
into the low/mid 80s. Currently we`re forecasting record highs for
all of our climate sites except Saranac Lake, see climate section
below. Winds will also be slightly stronger than yesterday, but
still only up to 10 mph from the south-southwest. Lows tonight will
remain well above normal in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 149 AM EDT Sunday...Heading into next week, little airmass
change is expected for Monday though 925mb temps cool slightly with
high temps mainly upper 70s to lower 80s. Could see a few more
record highs broken or tied. Winds will be slightly higher than
Sunday as well with the potential for some gusts upwards of 20 mph,
which combined with low relative humidity could continue to cause
some fire weather concerns though below red flag criteria.
A strong cold front remains poised to enter the region Tuesday
midday to afternoon with a high probability of rain. Given the dry
antecedent conditions a surge of 1.5" PWATS will have some dry air
to overcome before saturated the column, so rain will likely be
initially light, but increase going into the evening hours with some
pockets of moderate rain likely. Highs Tuesday ahead of the front
will push into the upper 70s to low 80s, and soundings support the
potential for some rumbles of thunder with a couple hundred joules
of elevated CAPE noted.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 149 AM EDT Sunday...Cold front with good moisture advection,
PWATS approaching 1.5 inches along the front moving through Tuesday
night with decent QPF but still mainly less than one inch. GFS is
slowest in its progression with Canadian closest to it and ECMWF
fastest. There may be a lingering shower in eastern VT around or
just after daybreak Wednesday so CHC pops quickly exiting as Cold
high builds for Wed ngt-Friday.
Much cooler temperatures move in during Wednesday after a record or
near record weekend and early week. Highs will be in the upper 50s-
L60s Wed with strong CAA...50s on Thu and then as High pressure
begins to slide east on Fri temperatures rebound to seasonable or
above levels in the L-M60s. Seasonably cold Thu-Fri morning with
frost-freeze with lows in the 20s-30s but around 40 near Lake
Champlain.
Friday night-Sat...northern stream shortwave rotates across Ontario-
Quebec with surface cold front expected. Doesn`t look like much
return moisture ahead of the front so will go with low chances of
rain showers Fri ngt-Sat with more large scale ridging possible
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions will persist through the
forecast period with perhaps some MVFR-IFR due to patchy fog at
KMPV and KSLK between 09-12z Mon and til 12-13z today. Calm
wind overnights giving way to 5-10 kts during daytime.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Incoming heat this weekend is presently forecast to approach daily
record values. The most likely dates for records will be Sunday
October 5th and Monday October 6th. Below are some of the daily
records in jeopardy of being broken (current forecast at or within 3
degrees of the record).
Record High Temperatures:
October 5:
KBTV: 83/2023
KMPV: 82/1951
KPBG: 80/2005
KMSS: 85/1991
KSLK: 83/2023
October 6:
KBTV: 82/1990
KMPV: 79/1990
KMSS: 81/2005
KSLK: 80/1946
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
October 5:
KPBG: 56/1973
October 6:
KBTV: 64/1937
October 7:
KBTV: 62/1947
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
CLIMATE...BTV
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