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FXUS61 KBTV 211325
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
925 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A period of mostly dry weather is expected across the region today
and Monday. Despite the drier weather, it will be unseasonably cool,
especially Monday behind a strong cold front. Temperatures will
begin to moderate on Tuesday, with rain chances increasing over the
middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 913 AM EDT Sunday...Have made some slight changes to the
forecast with this update. Radar showing isolated showers are
moving through southern St Lawrence County as west/southwest
flow enhances moisture downstream of Lake Ontario. Webcams
courtesy of the NY mesonet do show this precipitation is
reaching the ground, both as either light rain or light snow,
depending on temperatures at the location. Have therefore added
some isolated shower wording to the forecast in this area
through the rest of this morning. Note that several of the
latest CAM outputs indicate some shower activity will develop
this afternoon, but given how dry our current airmass is, unsure
how much precipitation would be able to reach the ground. Have
bumped up PoPs slightly, but kept this afternoon dry for now.
Otherwise, clouds continue to blanket much of northern NY, while
areas from the Champlain Valley eastward remain partly to
mostly sunny. Have made adjustments to sky cover forecast
accordingly. The rest of the forecast remains in good shape, so
no other changes were needed.

Previous discussion...After a quiet night with mostly clear
skies, primarily dry weather will round out the weekend. A weak
inversion will trap any lingering low- level moisture, allowing
for some clouds to develop this morning, with partly cloudy
skies prevailing for most of the day. Winds will increase
throughout the afternoon with diurnal mixing, with gusts up to
30 mph possible at the surface. Daytime highs will be in the mid
40s to mid 50s, but the brisk winds could make it feel even
cooler, especially with lingering cloud cover. By this evening,
a cold front will drop southward across the region. Although
this feature will be lacking moisture, the dynamics are strong
enough for a few possible showers across northern portions of
the forecast area. Cold, dry air will usher in behind the front,
with overnight low temperatures dropping into the 20s to low
30s.

Monday will feature quiet, yet cold weather behind the
aforementioned cold front. With the dry airmass across the
region, abundant sunshine is expected. Despite the sun, daytime
high temperatures on Monday will be chilly, only climbing into
the 40s to low 50s, which is about 10 degrees below average.
Throughout the afternoon, deep mixing will the dry contribute to
low minimum relative humidity values (near 20% in many spots)
along with some possible winds gusts, so potential fire weather
concerns will need to be monitored.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 334 AM EDT Sunday...Surface high pressure from Monday shuns
east as next deepening northern stream trough moves across northern
Ms Rvr Vly Monday night into the western Great Lakes by 00z Wed.
Decent gradient between systems will bring developing SSW first
across St Lawrence Vly (esp Canada) Monday night but freshening
Tuesday across St Lawrence and Champlain Vlys with wind gust 30-35
mph possible and good warm air advection for a quick rebound in
temperatures to the 50s/L60s.

Good moisture advection ahead of developing low pressure and frontal
boundary may bring showers to western areas by 00z Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 334 AM EDT Sunday...There still is consistency within model
runs yet differences remain with the GFS a stronger, more phasing
system compared to the other medium and shorter ranged models.

The differences is that a stronger, colder GFS solution would
initially bring deeper colder air and a prolonged wraparound feature
for some potential significant wet snow in the higher
elevations and western slope communities late Wed-Wed ngt and
continuing in the climate favored locales Thu. Meanwhile, the
other solutions are more progressive and have seen an increasing
intensity trend to the GFS solution with this run but the
phasing occurs after the initial surface low has passed our FA.
Rain/Rain showers changing to wet snow showers/snow Wed night
exiting for most by Thu and is what this forecast is based on.
Winter is not over...just yet. QPF amounts are still 1/3-1/2
inch with locally enhancement in the mountains with several
inches of wet snow possible in higher terrain.

Thu will feature decreasing showers/clouds as large, expansive high
pressure from eastern Canada-Great Lakes builds in for Thu ngt-Fri
with strong, upper shortwave ridging through midday Saturday when
another northern stream shortwave digs into the back of this upper
ridge and gradually lifts NNE over the ridge for more showers and a
return to seasonable temperatures Saturday. It looks like the upper
ridge wants to maintain control into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions currently prevail across
all terminals and are expected to persist throughout the
forecast period. Ceilings across the region are generally
between 5000 to 7000 ft AGL, with the cloud deck becoming more
scattered throughout the forecast period. Winds will generally
be from the west/southwest this morning into the evening, with
wind gusts up to 25 knots picking up around 15Z. A cold front
will drop across the region, which will shift winds to the
northwest around 06Z Monday.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kremer
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Kremer