FXUS61 KBTV 230746
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
346 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
High clouds will continue to increase today as Tropical Storm
Ophelia slowly moves northward into the Mid Atlantic. This system
will remain well to our south through the weekend, with the only
expected impacts being high cloud cover and low chances for showers
in southern Vermont. Much of next week is expected to be dry with
near normal temperatures.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Saturday...Ophelia will provide a gradient of clouds
stretched across the forecast area this weekend, with high, thin
clouds along the international border and thicker/lower clouds in
southern Vermont. Most of the region for most of the day will be
bone-dry, however, as Ophelia gets hung up in the mid-Atlantic.
There`s about a 20% chance of showers sprinkling across southern
Rutland and Windsor counties this evening through tomorrow with the
excess tropical moisture, but overall conditions should remain quiet
and dry. Both today and tomorrow, highs will be in the mid-60s in
southern zones where clouds persist to the lower 70s in the wider
valleys, especially north. Lows will also be milder tonight with the
insulating cloud cover, and fog chances will be lower overall.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Saturday...We will be squeezed between a couple
weather features on Sunday night and Monday which will lead to quiet
weather for our forecast area. Decaying tropical system to our south
and an upper level shortwave approaching from the north, with quiet
weather in between. Will see an increase in clouds on Monday with
shortwave finally crossing our area. Only expect possibility of very
light rain showers in southern Vermont associated with decaying
tropical system. Temperatures will be a few degrees above seasonal
normals for late September.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Saturday...From Monday night through Saturday we
will have an extended period of dry weather as high pressure settles
over the region out of Canada. Daytime maximum temperatures will be
close to seasonal normals while the overnights will be on the cool
side with some radiational cooling conditions possible.
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...Ophelia continues to send a thin veil of
high clouds across our forecast area, which should limit but not
prevent fog development. In fact, there are already a few spots
reporting fog/mist. MPV and SLK are once again most likely to
have prevailing IFR tonight around 08-13Z Saturday, but could
bounce in and out of IFR/VFR before that. Have used tempo groups
for EFK and MSS of IFR, which are anticipated to bounce for
most of the night. PBG could have more dips into MVFR territory,
but it should, for the most part, avoid IFR conditions. BTV and
RUT should stay VFR for the night. That being said, with how
thin the layer of clouds is, fog is not entirely out of the
question at any TAF site as efficient radiational cooling is
still possible. Unfortunately, this forecast is particularly
tricky as high pressure has departed and it`s no longer an
"ideal" situation for fog. Throughout the day Saturday, light
south/easterly winds 4-8 knots are expected with VFR conditions.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.