Current conditions from King Hill
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  Monday September 25, 2023


NWS Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KBTV 230532

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
132 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

High clouds will increase tonight and Saturday as Tropical Storm
Ophelia slowly moves northward into the Mid Atlantic. This system
will remain well to our south through the weekend, with the only
expected impacts being high cloud cover and low chances for showers
in southern Vermont. Much of next week is expected to be dry with
near normal temperatures.


As of 118 AM EDT Saturday...No significant changes to the
forecast with this update. Have added some fog in tonight as
places like Plattsburgh and Montpelier are already reporting
dips in visibility. Tonight will be slightly milder than last
night as Ophelia sends a thin veil of high clouds across our
forecast area. Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion...

We`ll have another beautiful evening across the region as the
weather remains dry and temperatures slowly cool into the 60s.
High clouds associated with Tropical Storm Ophelia, centered off
the Carolina coast, will continue to spread across Vermont and
northern NY this evening and overnight, helping to keep
temperatures from cooling quite as much as the past couple of
nights. The clouds should also limit widespread fog formation,
with just isolated patches expected in the highly favored valley
locations. Overnight lows will range from the low 40s to the
low 50s.


As of 322 PM EDT Friday...The overall trend with this forecast has
been for lesser impacts/rainfall from Tropical Storm Ophelia for our
forecast area, though we haven`t really been expecting much anyway.
Latest model guidance, including probabilistic NBM QPF, is showing
little more than just increasing clouds from the system, which is
forecasted to slowly lift up the Atlantic coast into the Mid
Atlantic. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will break down a bit
across northern/eastern New England as a weak frontal boundary/upper
trough swings south from Canada. These two features will help to
keep Ophelia well to our south, stalling the remnant low near the
Delmarva. The vast majority of our forecast area will remain dry
Saturday/Saturday night as any appreciable rain associated with
Ophelia will struggle to make it much beyond the MA/VT border; at
worst, there might be a few showers or some sprinkles over Rutland
and Windsor Counties. The aforementioned front will cross the
international border early Sunday and move southward, decaying as it
does so. Still, with the bit of increased moisture from Ophelia,
some showers could develop Sunday, mainly in the afternoon/evening
and mainly along/south of a line from Newcomb NY to Topsham VT. Any
showers that do develop would be light in nature, producing just a
few hundredths. All told, total rainfall for the weekend has been
lowered, and generally expect most areas to see a tenth of an inch
or less, and little to no rainfall for the northern two-thirds of
the forecast area.

Temperature-wise, the clouds from Ophelia will keep highs a little
cooler on Saturday, especially in southern areas where temperatures
will top out in the lower/mid 60s. Further north where there will be
a bit more sun, highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Sunday`s highs will be near seasonal normals, in the mid 60s to to
lower 70s areawide. Lows both Saturday and Sunday night will be
likewise close to normal, in the mid 40s to lower 50s.


As of 322 PM EDT Friday...We are in store for an extended period of
dry weather for the upcoming week as a strong Canadian high pressure
system settles into the North Country. Model confidence between the
global and ensemble members over the last several runs has increased
leading us to believe we should be in store for plentiful sunshine,
light winds and seasonal temperatures Monday through Friday of next
week. We could see an isolated shower or two by late week but
subsidence will likely suppress much, if not all, shower activity.
Given leaves have begun to change and will continue to do so, this
period of weather should be perfect for those looking to check out
the fall foliage.


Through 06z Sunday...Ophelia continues to send a thin veil of
high clouds across our forecast area, which should limit but not
prevent fog development. In fact, there are already a few spots
reporting fog/mist. MPV and SLK are once again most likely to
have prevailing IFR tonight around 08-13Z Saturday, but could
bounce in and out of IFR/VFR before that. Have used tempo groups
for EFK and MSS of IFR, which are anticipated to bounce for
most of the night. PBG could have more dips into MVFR territory,
but it should, for the most part, avoid IFR conditions. BTV and
RUT should stay VFR for the night. That being said, with how
thin the layer of clouds is, fog is not entirely out of the
question at any TAF site as efficient radiational cooling is
still possible. Unfortunately, this forecast is particularly
tricky as high pressure has departed and it`s no longer an
"ideal" situation for fog. Throughout the day Saturday, light
south/easterly winds 4-8 knots are expected with VFR conditions.


Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.




NEAR TERM...Chai/Hastings/Storm
SHORT TERM...Hastings

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