000
FXUS61 KBTV 230232
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1032 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High clouds will increase tonight and Saturday as Tropical Storm
Ophelia slowly moves northward into the Mid Atlantic. This system
will remain well to our south through the weekend, with the only
expected impacts being high cloud cover and low chances for showers
in southern Vermont. Much of next week is expected to be dry with
near normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1025 PM UPDATE...

High clouds from Tropical Storm Ophelia made for a picturesque
sunset across our region this evening. This is also the last
sunset of astronomical summer 2023 with autumnal equinox at 250
AM EDT overnight tonight. As typically with the case of high
clouds, the impacts on radiational cooling could differ across
relatively small distances. For example, Massena has cooled off
faster than expected and reached crossover temperature,
resulting in the development of mist or BR. So made some minor
adjustments to the hourly temperatures and dew points based on
the latest obs. However, have held off on inserting fog wording
into the forecast weather given the very isolated nature of BR
as well as questions on how prolonged the boundary layer can
stay decoupled. Otherwise, forecast remains very much on track.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

We`ll have another beautiful evening across the region as the
weather remains dry and temperatures slowly cool into the 60s.
High clouds associated with Tropical Storm Ophelia, centered off
the Carolina coast, will continue to spread across Vermont and
northern NY this evening and overnight, helping to keep
temperatures from cooling quite as much as the past couple of
nights. The clouds should also limit widespread fog formation,
with just isolated patches expected in the highly favored valley
locations. Overnight lows will range from the low 40s to the
low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 322 PM EDT Friday...The overall trend with this forecast has
been for lesser impacts/rainfall from Tropical Storm Ophelia for our
forecast area, though we haven`t really been expecting much anyway.
Latest model guidance, including probabilistic NBM QPF, is showing
little more than just increasing clouds from the system, which is
forecasted to slowly lift up the Atlantic coast into the Mid
Atlantic. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will break down a bit
across northern/eastern New England as a weak frontal boundary/upper
trough swings south from Canada. These two features will help to
keep Ophelia well to our south, stalling the remnant low near the
Delmarva. The vast majority of our forecast area will remain dry
Saturday/Saturday night as any appreciable rain associated with
Ophelia will struggle to make it much beyond the MA/VT border; at
worst, there might be a few showers or some sprinkles over Rutland
and Windsor Counties. The aforementioned front will cross the
international border early Sunday and move southward, decaying as it
does so. Still, with the bit of increased moisture from Ophelia,
some showers could develop Sunday, mainly in the afternoon/evening
and mainly along/south of a line from Newcomb NY to Topsham VT. Any
showers that do develop would be light in nature, producing just a
few hundredths. All told, total rainfall for the weekend has been
lowered, and generally expect most areas to see a tenth of an inch
or less, and little to no rainfall for the northern two-thirds of
the forecast area.

Temperature-wise, the clouds from Ophelia will keep highs a little
cooler on Saturday, especially in southern areas where temperatures
will top out in the lower/mid 60s. Further north where there will be
a bit more sun, highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Sunday`s highs will be near seasonal normals, in the mid 60s to to
lower 70s areawide. Lows both Saturday and Sunday night will be
likewise close to normal, in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 322 PM EDT Friday...We are in store for an extended period of
dry weather for the upcoming week as a strong Canadian high pressure
system settles into the North Country. Model confidence between the
global and ensemble members over the last several runs has increased
leading us to believe we should be in store for plentiful sunshine,
light winds and seasonal temperatures Monday through Friday of next
week. We could see an isolated shower or two by late week but
subsidence will likely suppress much, if not all, shower activity.
Given leaves have begun to change and will continue to do so, this
period of weather should be perfect for those looking to check out
the fall foliage.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z Sunday...High level clouds from Tropical Storm
Ophelia will move into our region overnight tonight with VFR
ceilings prevailing through the entire TAF period. These high
clouds should limit fog potential with just a brief mentioned of
reduced ceilings and visibilities at KMPV and KSLK between
Saturday 09Z and 12Z. Thereafter, light winds with scattered
high clouds are expected through the day on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Chai/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Chai/Clay