146
FXUS61 KBTV 290655
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
255 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Any lingering rain showers will dissipate by sunrise with increasing
sunshine expected throughout the day. A noticeable warming trend
will be seen on Monday with afternoon highs climbing into the mid
80s to lower 90s. Several disturbances and frontal boundaries will
bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the North
Country Monday night and again on Tuesday with a few strong
thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon. Thereafter, temperatures
will return to more seasonal values with a few showers possible each
day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 254 AM EDT Sunday...A surface cold front is making quick
progress across Vermont as of this hour and is rapidly catching up
the the warm front that has gotten hung up across the higher terrain
in Vermont. This leaves a very narrow "warm sector" as of this hour
which will be the main focus for any isolated showers through
daybreak. The front is expected to occlude over eastern Vermont by
daybreak and continue shifting eastward which will bring an end to
any lingering rain chances. The latest high-res guidance depicts an
impressive frontal inversion between 3000 and 4000 ft which is
likely to trap some low level moisture across the region through at
least midday so it may take some time for skies to fully clear out.
As a matter of fact, by 21Z, it appears that we finally mix out the
frontal inversion and the low level moisture with mostly sunny skies
expected by sunset. There isn`t much change in the air mass ahead
and behind the aforementioned cold front so we will still see
temperatures warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s once again this
afternoon.
After sunset, it appears likely that many places across Vermont and
New York will rapidly cool off below their cross over temperatures.
The NAM3, HRRR, and RAP are showing pretty widespread dense fog
developing between 10 PM and midnight and lasting through sunrise.
The favorable locations such as the Connecticut and Winooski River
Valleys are likely to be the focus for much of the dense fog
coverage but patchy fog will be possible in many other locations.
Monday continues to look like the hottest day this week as deep
layer ridging build across the region. Clear skies, light winds and
above normal 925 mb, 850 mb, and 700 mb temps should allow for
temperatures to warm well into the 80s and the lower 90s across the
wider valley. There is a fair amount of drier air hovering off the
deck on Monday so as we warm and mix deeper, we could actually see
our dewpoints drop. Presently, we expect dewpoints in the lower 60s
but it`s beginning to look like we may see dewpoints drop into the
mid to upper 50s in the afternoon. With all this being said, heat
indices are expected to top out in the 90 to 93 degrees range which
will remain below and headline criteria.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 254 AM EDT Sunday...Monday night will see a pre-frontal
trough move through into Tuesday morning which will bring some
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Models still show that the
instability looks to be elevated, so the chances for any
significant thunderstorm activity looks low. A weak cold front
does move through Tuesday afternoon which looks to bring another
round of convection. While dew points will be in the low 70s,
cloud cover and shallow mid-level lapse rates look to cap
thunderstorm activity in the afternoon, though 2" PWATs could
lead to a some really effect rainfall in the storm that do pop
up.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 254 AM EDT Sunday...Tuesday night will see a push of drier and
cooler air, which will lead to dew points being a bit lower on
Wednesday, in the lower 60s, the decreased cloud cover will
actually lead to a similarly hot day as Tuesday, with temps in
mid 80s. Thursday will see an upper low move to the north of
area, bringing an accompanying short wave, with that another
chance of afternoon convection. Friday will see high pressure
build in before another potential unsettled weekend awaits.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...A surface cold front continues to push
across the North Country this morning with the front just
through KPBG as they had an abrupt wind direction change to the
northwest. In general, winds will veer from south to
west/northwest through 12Z as the cold front continues to move
through the region. Pockets of MFVR ceilings are expected to
develop across KSLK but brief MVFR conditions may also be
possible at KMPV and KEFK between 8Z and 16Z. The weather today
will be quiet overall with west winds of less than 10 knots but
it looks like widespread fog is on the table late tonight into
Monday morning. Given the latest guidance, we have already begun
to suggest VLIFR fog at KSLK and KEFK at 5Z with KRUT and KMPV
likely to go down after 6Z.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Clay
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