187
FXUS61 KBTV 110615
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
215 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of cool overnight temperatures are expected
tonight with low temperatures dipping into the low to mid 30s
for coldest spots and mid 30s to low 40s in broader valleys.
Some frost will be likely for portions of central and eastern
Vermont as well as the Adirondacks. High pressure will linger
into Sunday allowing for warming temperatures into the 60s for
most locations. The next system will bring widespread chances
for rainfall and potential for breezy winds especially for
southern Vermont.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Have increased wind and wind gust forecast tonight across Lake
Champlain as we are seeing higher winds than previously
anticipated and most high res models continue to show the low
level jet causing these winds over the next several hours.
Southerly winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts 25 to 30 knots are
expected for much of the evening hours across the lake. Also,
decreased hourly dew point forecast tonight to better match
observations showing dews in the 20s for most. Previous
discussion below:
* A frost advisory has been issued for tonight for locations
east of the Green Mountains in central and southern Vermont.
As of 534 PM EDT Friday...High pressure remains firmly in place
today through Saturday before beginning to shift as a coastal
low system moves up the Atlantic Coast. Thus, conditions will
remain dry except for a few showers in the St Lawrence Valley as
a weaker low passes through the Great Lakes Region tonight into
Saturday. Lows will be crisp again tonight but moderated some
by breezes related to a weak low level jet passing through.
Gusts on Lake Champlain could reach 25mph overnight where mixing
will be best. Elsewhere some breezes 5 to 10 mph are possible
except east of the Greens where decoupling is more favored. So,
temperatures will be lowest east of the Greens ranging in the
30s with coldest hollows dipping into the upper 20s. Frost is
favored east of the Greens in central/southern Vermont, so the
last frost advisory has been issued. The frost/freeze program
will continue in the Champlain Valley, but we will stop issuing
for this fall for other locations starting Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 139 PM EDT Friday...The next system will approach out of
the south as a coastal low moves northward just off shore in
the west Atlantic. Models continue to struggle with placement
and timing of this system due to a complex set up where a
smaller low tracking south of the Great Lakes Region will likely
merge with the offshore system`s flow. This interaction will be
the key determining factor for timing of rainfall, strength of
winds, and amounts of precipitation expected. Latest consensus
of guidance has slowed onset of precipitation favoring sharper
digging of the Great Lakes low into the base of the upper level
pattern. This has resulted in a more southerly track of the
coastal low resulting in pushing back onset of precipitation
later into Sunday evening/Monday night. Consequently, low level
jet winds have weakened over southern Vermont Sunday with the
core more towards 40kts rather than 60kts as projected 24 hours
ago. Ultimately, this will keep Sunday drier and less breezy.
Still, there could be some marginal fire weather concerns for
southern Vermont as winds turn easterly and downslope a bit.
Gusts to around 20 mph are expected in southern Vermont valleys
during the day with 10-15 mph elsewhere in general. Ridge winds
are still favored to increase overnight into early Monday with
gust in the 30-45 mph range as rainfall chances increase. With
the more southerly track, it is expected that there will be a
sharper precipitation gradient with higher amounts favored for
southern Vermont and lowest amounts in the St Lawrence Valley.
Indeed, easterly flow may preclude even a few hundredths in the
St Lawrence Valley due to compressional warming. QPF amounts
through Sunday night could see only up to 0.5 inches in southern
Vermont, but could be lower if the forecast continues its
current trend.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 214 AM EDT Saturday...A cool and unsettled weather pattern is
expected across the region next week, with periodic chances for
showers and plenty of cloud cover. There is still a lot of
uncertainty as to any exact timing of any precipitation for next
week given the complex pattern with the departing coastal low,
however there look to be many chances for showers throughout the
week Temperatures will start off quite seasonable early in the week,
with highs generally in the upper 50s and low 60s on Tuesday, with
temperatures trending cooler as the week progresses. By Thursday
temperatures will likely struggle to climb into the 50s in many
locations. Overnight lows will also be on the cold side, with
temperatures near or below freezing, with the exception of locations
near or along Lake Champlain.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
all terminals throughout the forecast period, with relatively clear
skies. Winds have begun to lessen over the last few hours, with many
terminals experiencing light and/or calm winds at this hour. There
continues to be more wind aloft, which will limit any fog
development overnight, in addition to being a day further removed
from recent rain. While fog cannot be ruled out entirely,
particularly at KSLK, chances are low enough that it was not included
in the forecast. Winds will pick back up throughout the day
Saturday, generally less than 10 knots.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for Lake Champlain this
evening into the early overnight with sustained winds 15 to 25
knots and gusts 25 to 30 knots are anticipated over the next
several hours, causing lake waves of 2 to 4 feet.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ006-008-010-
020-021.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Storm
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
MARINE...Storm
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