854
FXUS61 KBTV 172341
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
741 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
One more chilly night will give way to a warming trend through
the weekend, featuring late-summerlike temperatures on Sunday
along with breezy conditions. Widespread rain Sunday night into
Monday will follow, along with a return to cooler and cloudier
conditions. Most of the showers next week will be light with
little impact on ongoing drought conditions, but fire weather
concerns will be limited.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 224 PM EDT Friday...Quiet weather continues through the
period. A new (and final for the season) Frost Advisory has
been issued for the Champlain Valley following a night in which
temperatures fell into the low to mid 30s, largely similar lows
are expected tonight. That being said, a little bit of
uncertainty exists due to presence of high altitude clouds that
are evident already on satellite imagery, especially as one goes
westward. Think the HREF cloud product is capturing these
observations well, which would suggest that a period of thicker
clouds early in the night may be transient enough and/or thin
out enough that much of the Champlain Valley still sees
temperatures cool enough for frost formation. Generally this
pattern will support coldest conditions in central/eastern
Vermont tonight, with less cold conditions in northern New York
compared to last night.
Saturday into Saturday night light winds will gradually ramp up
as southerly flow increases with incoming pressure falls and
high pressure exiting to the east. A large area of showers
currently upstream in eastern Ontario will fall apart as it
enters northern New York early in the morning, with additional
virga or brief, light showers possible falling out of high
clouds during the afternoon when mid-altitude moisture is
expected to increase. Aside from this cloudiness moving across
the area, pleasant conditions are expected with above normal
temperatures in the low to mid 60s common, and with limited
cooling overnight due to cloud cover and breeziness, lows
Saturday night will largely be in the upper 30s to upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 222 PM EDT Friday...The beginning of a much stormier
period of weather is expected for Sunday. We will be firmly in
the warm and windy part of a large incoming low pressure system
from the west. Temperatures will surge well above normal,
becoming easily the warmest day of the upcoming week. While none
of the data is off the charts in terms of extremes, a few items
to note. The St. Lawrence Valley will see some of the most
impressive warmth associated with topographical effects as
shallow southeasterly winds will be present below a
southwesterly jet. Temperatures should approach daily records
and 80 degrees (greater than 30% chance) locally in this region,
or typical late August conditions. Elsewhere, high temperatures
will tend to be typical for mid-September in the upper 60s to
mid 70s.
With regards to wind gust magnitude, the Champlain Valley will
be set up very well to see the strongest winds with some gusts
easily 30-35 MPH based on pattern recognition and model forecast
soundings, although some of the latest data is tamer than
previous runs. Ideal channeling with low inversion heights
looks reasonable throughout the daytime hours; in fact, by
daybreak Lake Wind Advisory criteria on the broad waters is
expected. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index highlights winds in the
western valley along Lake Champlain in particular. Generally
gusts exceeding 25 MPH during the day across our region are very
likely (most locations aside from the Upper Valley are at least
80%). With the trend towards a more southeasterly low level
wind, have boosted maximum wind gusts in the northern/western
Adirondacks. As an example, in Malone during the early evening
modeled winds between 45 and 50 MPH descend to below 3000 feet
above ground level, leading to increased potential for a couple
stronger gusts pushing 40 MPH at the surface. That being said,
typical uncertainties in terms of how much of the strong winds
aloft will mix to the surface in a large scale warm air
advection pattern, especially after sunset.
By late in the day, showers will be approaching northern New York
with only up to a 50% chance of rain by 8 PM in far western areas.
Thereafter, Sunday night will become wet across New York and much of
Vermont, with lowest chances of rain in the Northeast Kingdom
(although still greater than 50%). Because the incoming trough is
expected to become negatively tilted, a band of widespread showers
will tend to become oriented from northwest to southeast such that
northeastern Vermont could indeed see little rainfall through this
period. Have also noted timing differences continue amongst model
guidance, with most deterministic guidance trending towards a
slower arrival of rain that has been favored by EAGLE
(Experimental AI Global and Limited-area Ensemble forecast
system). Would expect much of the rain will be a Monday event
for much of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 147 PM EDT Friday...A cold front slows down over the region
during the day on Monday and a surface low develops along it. It
should cause a period of steady to heavy rain on Monday. While a few
convective elements are possible, there should not be enough
instability for thunder. While there will be widespread rain, a dry
slot looks to develop as the low strengthens so there will be
breaks. A brief period of ridging will try to build in for Tuesday
and it should keep the day mostly dry. An upper level low enters the
region for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing widespread showers,
particularly in the upslope areas. It will be accompanied by colder
temperatures aloft and the highest summits look to fall to around
and slightly below freezing, so a few snow showers up there are
looking increasing likely. General troughiness looks to continue
into the weekend so it will likely be a cloudy and more unsettled
stretch. As a positive, the dreary conditions will mostly prevent
fire weather concerns, though precipitation totals do not look to be
high enough to cause much of a dent in the drought. Through most of
next weekend, the GEFS/EPS/CAN combined ensemble probabilities of
seeing more than 1.5 inches of rain are less than 50 percent, so
while there will be plenty of showers, totals will not be overly
high.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast periods with only some virga as possible sensible
weather over portions of northern New York as a relative warm
front passes through. Light westerly flow this evening will
become southerly Saturday generally less than 10kts. Some minor
gusts to 15kts are possible at PBG as flow moves in off of Lake
Champlain.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX is tentatively back in service after on-site repairs.
Technicians have identified a hardware failure and have ordered
replacement parts.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Saturday for VTZ001-002-005-009.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...BTV
|
