116
FXUS61 KBTV 241751
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
151 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily shower chances will continue through Thursday, with the
greatest chances for thunderstorms this afternoon, especially across
northern New York. High pressure will build across the North Country
Friday and into the weekend, allowing for a return of dry weather
with temperatures warming to near 90s degrees in the valleys by
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 144 PM EDT Wednesday...Scattered to numerous showers and
storms have developed across northern New York and they will
slowly make their way eastward into Vermont. A couple of these
storms will likely be strong to severe, capable of producing
damaging winds. Any stronger storms should weaken as they move
eastward into Vermont. Eastern Vermont has finally been able to
break out of the low clouds so the atmosphere has been able to
destabilize a bit there as well, but it will likely not reach
the levels of northern New York or western Vermont.

Previous Discussion...With the recent rainfall across the
region yesterday, areas of patchy fog and low stratus have
developed overnight. The fog across northern New York will erode
towards daybreak, although the stratus east of the Green
Mountains looks to linger throughout most of the morning. After
a lull in precipitation overnight, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will return this afternoon. The greatest chances
for thunderstorms will be across northern New York, with greater
instability as well as the proximity to better forcing as a
pre- frontal trough pushes through during the late afternoon.
SPC has placed much of northern New York in a Marginal Risk for
severe weather on Wednesday given the potential for isolated
strong to severe storms developing. The primary threats with any
developing convection look to be localized damaging winds and
heavy rainfall. WPC also has an Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall across the forecast areas as well given the heavy
rainfall potential. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to
low 80s across northern New York and the Champlain Valley, but
eastern Vermont looks to warm into the mid 70s. Additional
showers will be possible heading into the overnight hours as the
upper level trough continues to push eastward, but chances for
thunderstorms will be low. Overnight low temperatures will be
mild, generally in the 60s with the Champlain Valley struggling
to drop below 70.

Heading into Thursday, conditions continue to trend on the drier
side with some showers in the morning ahead of the cold front. With
the frontal passage occurring earlier in the day, the threat for
thunderstorms and heat rainfall continues to lessen, as the best
forcing and instability will not align. Behind this frontal
boundary, a drier and refreshing airmass will move into the region,
with dewpoints dropping into the 50s. Daytime high temperatures
during the day will warm into the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 423 AM EDT Wednesday...There will be some lingering light rain
showers Thursday night as surface trough and some upper level
shortwave energy move across our forecast area. Surface high
pressure will begin to ridge into our region on Friday and we`ll
have clearing skies during the day and a dry forecast for the day.
Low temperatures Thursday night will dip into the lower 50s to lower
60s with drier air moving into the region behind departing cold
front. With dry air in place on Friday also, high temperatures will
reach the lower 70s to lower 80s with lower RH values as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 423 AM EDT Wednesday...Surface and upper level ridging will
build into the area for the weekend. Dry weather is expected, but
along with upper level ridging comes warmer air and temperatures
will rise back above seasonal normals once again. Next chance for
showers and possibly thunderstorms will come Tuesday into Wednesday
as a surface and upper level trough will push across the area. At
this time looks like Burlington will have at least 2 days pushing 90
degrees, possibly 3 or 4 days. Will have to monitor potential for
heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday... There will be some scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon that will generally move through the
region from west to east. When these hit the terminals, they will
briefly lower visibilities to MVFR or even IFR. These thunderstorms
should be out of the region by later this evening. A few showers
will linger overnight but these should not contain lightning and
they should not reduce visibilities very much. Some lower
clouds will move in tonight, and they will likely bring ceilings
down to MVFR, particularly at MPV, SLK and EFK. These ceilings
will rise back to VFR during the day tomorrow. Winds will
generally transition from southwesterly today to northwesterly
during the day tomorrow.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Myskowski