771
FXUS61 KBTV 091728
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
128 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Prolonged dry conditions are expected with high pressure in
place through mid week characterized by pleasant afternoon
temperatures and morning fog for river valleys. A dry cold front
will move through Thursday bringing northerly breezes and
possibly enhancing fire weather concerns given dry vegetation.
The next chances of widespread rain will hold off until late
weekend into the beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday...Very quiet weather continues across
the region through Wednesday night as ridge of surface high
pressure remains anchored over the northeast. Temperatures
overnight will be cool as good radiational cooling set up is in
place, and we`ll have fog in the typically fog prone spots.
Minimum temperatures tonight will dip into the mid 30s to mid
40s, warmest at locations along Lake Champlain. A weak low level
jet will be in place overnight over Lake Champlain, relatively
warm lake temperatures will support better mixing leading to
gusts around 10 to 15 mph. Some frost formation will be possible
in the most isolated cold hollows. Temperatures will slowly
modify through the period. Temperatures today are maxing out a
couple degrees higher than yesterday, and Wednesday will be a
couple degrees higher than today. Conditions will be mostly
clear from tonight all the way through Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday...For Thursday and Thursday night we
will have a dry cold front drop across our area. Not expecting
any precipitation at this time, but do expect an increase in
clouds and winds as this surface boundary crosses the area. Wind
gusts during the daytime will be around 15 to 25 mph, with the
strongest gusts in the Champlain valley and across the higher
terrain. This will have implications on fire weather since the
region is experiencing a period of significant drought. Fine
vegetation will be parched on top of dry 100/1000hr fuels. These
conditions point to potential for higher rates of fire spread.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 258 AM EDT Tuesday...A push of somewhat stronger cold air
advection will be ongoing Thursday night before relaxing
overnight. How quickly these northerly winds die off will be
important for potential frost formation; generally while
forecast lows currently suggest potential for frost, a shallow
inversion will have to develop quickly enough before sunrise for
this to happen. Low temperatures from the deterministic NBM are
less cold and more reasonable than most of the probabilistic
NBM data, which has many members that are likely too cold given
the somewhat breezy pattern. Friday looks dry and sunny, but
with high pressure building back in from the north, winds will
be light but relative humidity during the afternoon will
approach 30%, especially in the Upper Valley. Probabilistic data
shows a range of 27-33% at 2 PM in Springfield, Vermont, as an
example. Breezier conditions by comparison are favored for the
weekend as chances for a frontal system to approach increase,
with winds southerly on Saturday and potentially flipping from
southerly to northerly on Sunday. Aside from Thursday, Saturday
currently looks like the next chance of overlapping wind and low
relative humidity concerns for fire weather.
While the late weekend period is still likely to remain dry,
chances for showers has increased on Sunday, with a slightly
higher probability of rain in northern New York than in Vermont.
This difference may be tied to the wettest cluster of the most
recent complete run of the global ensembles, which features a
partially closed 500 millibar low over northern portions of the
Great Lakes. This feature would therefore be slow to move
eastward, such that the showers associated with this unsettled
weather could mainly stay to our north and west. That being
said, other scenarios show the wave opening up such that some
light rain amounts could be more widespread across our region,
or the low is cutoff over western portions of Ontario keeping us
under a strong ridge with continued fully dry conditions.
Unsurprisingly, statistical confidence of both high and low
temperatures decreases quite a bit Sunday and Monday compared to
Saturday. Generally temperatures through the period will remain
near normal, but clouds and precipitation could make Sunday
and/or Monday a bit cooler in some areas if the wet scenario
occurs.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Dense valley fog in the favored
locations is beginning the process of dissipating, with it fully
out of the SLK area by 1230Z and MPV in the 1330-1400Z period.
Otherwise, skies in the airspace are clear and will remain that
way through most if not all of the period. Some clouds in the 5
to 7 thousand foot layer may approach from the south towards the
end of the TAF period such as RUT and MPV, with the latter site
still favored to see another round of radiation fog but with
greater uncertainty than last night. Southerly winds just off
the deck are expected to be present for all of the overnight
period, with flow possibly near 20 knots below about 1000 feet
agl at SLK greatly reducing dense fog potential. Surface winds
at most sites, aside from in the Champlain Valley, will return
to calm or terrain-driven and light towards 00Z following a
period of diurnally-driven light south winds from about 15Z to
22Z.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
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