842
FXUS61 KBTV 051422
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1022 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in today, providing ample sunshine
and near normal temperatures. Another cold front will bring
another round of increasing clouds and showers late Sunday into
Monday. Then a pattern of seasonably cool and unsettled weather
will develop, which may lead to some higher elevation snow
showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1019 AM EDT Saturday...Fog and low stratus is finally
dissipating acrs parts of central/southern VT per latest GOES 16
vis satl trends. As 1027mb sfc high pres located near Detroit,
MI builds into our cwa today, expect plenty of sunshine with
near normal temps. Soundings support some mixing of drier air
near 5000 feet toward the sfc this aftn, so we wl be watching
sfc dwpts closely, especially at our ASOS sites. Otherwise,
anticipating areas of patchy dense fog tonight and may need a
frost advisory for parts of central VT, where growing season
conts.

Previous Discussion...We have a classic foggy after rain
situation early this morning with very light winds keeping
boundary layer moisture trapped near the ground overnight. Think
that as the sun rises, it won`t take long for us to see
improving conditions and the clouds and fog alike should clear
out, especially in northern New York. A lagging upper level
trough might work against rapid clearing in Vermont, especially
as one goes east, but by afternoon we all should see a mostly
sunny sky, perhaps with the exception of far northeastern
Vermont. Temperatures still look to be rather seasonable, if not
a few degrees warmer than normal for this time of year, behind
the cold front.

Tonight will should see ample fog with some dense fog in the typical
locations. Weak low level northerly flow is expected with the core
of high pressure situated to our north, which could support some fog
in the vicinity of Lake Champlain in addition to most bodies of
water across the region. Temperatures will be chilly, but it is
uncertain if they will be quite cold enough for frost outside of
the Adirondack region and Northeast Kingdom where they are already
well past the climatological first freeze dates. Will hold off
on any headlines for frost in central Vermont, but temperatures
in the mid to upper 30s with calm winds do look possible in
much of this region.

Sunday will be mainly sunny until clouds arrive ahead of the
next cold front, discussed in the Short Term section of the AFD
below. Temperatures will only modify a little with highs mainly
in the mid and upper 60s, and it will be noticeably breezy with
most locations seeing a few 15 to 20 MPH, especially in the
afternoon. Have a little bit of rain for our far western areas
accumulating at the end of the period as showers spread
eastward; the 6 to 8 PM time frame is favored for onset of light rain
in the St. Lawrence Valley at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...Sunday night into Monday, a sharp upper
trough will shift east. Enhanced by some earlier convection, there
is a solid slug of moisture that should lift through with a 40 knot
low-level jet, though instability will rapidly decline overnight. So
no thunder is anticipated, but there could be some pockets of
moderate rain due to the low-level convergence, solid isentropic
upglide courtesy of the LLJ, and potential for the trough to acquire
a negative tilt. It does speed along and the bulk of activity should
shift east mid- morning. Some additional showers are possible later
Monday as another trough shifts southeast alongside a stronger push
of cold air and a deepening upper low. There`s some question on the
extent of moisture available, but with cooling aloft and supportive
upper diffluence, shower activity could overcome some of the
moisture hurdles with scattered showers redeveloping in the
afternoon. Conditions will begin in the 40s to lower 50s, except mid
50s near Lake Champlain. With the frontal boundary crossing late
morning and early afternoon, high temperatures will likely only
climb into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...Drying conditions are likely Monday night
into Tuesday with a surge of cold air pushing southeast as the upper
low continues to spin. The airmass moving through should be quite
cool, with mid 30s to mid 40s at night. There are some differences
in timing, but towards Wednesday/Thursday, another vort will
translate southeast while mid- level temperatures become their
coolest. With sufficient moisture in place, a period of mountain
snow showers, especially in favored northwestern slopes, is looking
pretty good. Based on the latest forecast, it may not be
unreasonable to suggest snow levels drop as low as 1500 ft agl.
Underneath this upper low, things are going to be below normal for a
bit, with high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees below average
(mid 50s to lower 60s for this time of year) and low temperatures
about 5 degrees below average (mid 30s to mid 40s this time of year)

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Shallow, dense fog developed at a few
terminals overnight, including low probability locations
including BTV and RUT. Lingering BR at MSS and FG at BTV, SLK,
and RUT are expected to dissipate between 13Z and 14Z. After
14Z, any remaining CIGs will lift and scatter as high pressure
and dry air settle in. Light/calm winds should pick up into the
4 to 8 knot range towards 18Z. Between 21Z and 03Z winds will
become calm, supporting another round of fog, with occurrence
likely (~80%) at SLK and closer to a 50% chance at EFK/MPV.


Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Taber
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Kutikoff