228
FXUS61 KBTV 310015
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
815 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A period of gusty easterly downslope winds are expected along
the western slopes of the Green Mountains this evening, where a
wind advisory for localized gusts in the 45 to 55 mph range is
in effect. Occasional rain will continue overnight into Friday
with the heaviest precipitation amounts over northern New York.
Blustery gusty westerly winds develop on Friday afternoon with
rain showers mixing with snow showers over the higher terrain by
Friday night. A light snow accumulation is likely by Saturday
morning above 1000 feet.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 739 PM EDT Thursday...Have tweaked PoP grids to reflect
current radar trends. Going forecast is in good shape. Previous
discussion follows.
Wind advisory for the western slopes continues until 5 AM
Friday for localized wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph with isolated to
scattered power outages possible. Bennington, VT has gusted to
51 mph at 12:52 PM today, with Danby up to 40 mph and Mendon at
36 mph. These winds will continue to expand northward along the
western slopes this evening with peak winds expected btwn 5 PM
and midnight. HRRR/RAP continues to 55 to 60 knots near 500`
AGL, while NAM/ARW is slightly less. The big question continues
to be mixing potential, as soundings indicate inversion height
near or just below summit level, while top of the mixed layer
winds fluctuate btwn 35 and 50 knots, depending upon the source.
Latest 12z HREF still indicating mean gusts of 50 to 60 mph,
while prob of wind gusts >45 mph is in the 55 to 70% range along
the western slopes. Still some uncertainty on how far away from
the trrn the gusts propagate downstream of the spine. The
Froude Number is <1.0, which indicates flow is
subcritical/blocked and favors potential gap winds on the
western slopes.
Meanwhile, GOES 19 water vapor shows deepening and closed 7h/5h
cyclonic circulation over western PA with elongated sfc low pre
from near Erie PA to the eastern shore of VA. Sfc low pres wl
cont to strengthen as it moves northward acrs our cwa on Friday.
Strong easterly flow wl enhance deep moisture advection and
produce several more rounds of rain tonight into Friday. The
heaviest axis of rain wl continue to be focused over the SLV and
northern Dacks. I have continued pops near 100% thru tonight,
with some breaks likely in favorable downslope shadowing areas
of the Green Mtns and parts of the NEK of VT. Rainfall generally
0.25" to 0.75" with isolated amounts over 1.0 likely SLV. Temps
hold steady in the 40s overnight with some warming possible due
to downslope flow.
On Friday sfc low pres is progged to be sub 980mb just north of
the International Border by 18z, which wl change our wind
direction to a west/southwest by mid aftn and west/northwest by
Friday evening. This change in wind direction wl quickly advect
in much cooler air aloft with rain changing to snow acrs the
northern Dacks above 1500 feet by sunset. Trends have been our
friend if you are looking for snowfall with change over
occurring in the central/northern Greens btwn 8 PM and 11 PM
Friday evening. Snow level look to drop to around 1000 feet by
12z Sat, as progged 925mb temps drop btwn -2C and -3C, while
progged 850mb temps are in the -3C to -5C. The ingredients look
favorable for a period of upslope rain and snow showers on
Friday night with good 850 to 700mb rh >80%, strong 850mb winds
of 35 to 45 knots, and moderately strong caa. This wl help to
enhance precip with highest pops/qpf acrs the favorable upslope
areas of northern Dacks and central/northern Greens. Snow
accumulations range from dusting to 2 inches btwn 1000 and 2000
feet and 1 to 3 inches btwn 2000 and 3500 feet and up to 4 or 5
inches above 3500 feet by mid morning Sat. I have tried to
highlight this thinking in the latest storm total snow grids.
Did utilize the NAM3KM hourly temps in grids to show cooler air
moving into the area faster, especially acrs the higher trrn on
Friday evening.
Next issue is gusty west/northwest winds along the eastern side
of the Dacks and Green Mtns late Friday aftn into Friday night.
Soundings show inversion near summit level with top of the
mixed layer winds of 40 to 45 knots, which should support
localized gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range. The inversion height
pushing toward the sfc should help to enhance winds on eastern
side of the trrn on Friday night. A few power outage are
possible again on Friday night. Lows range from the mid 20s to
m/upper 30s near Lake Champlain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 216 PM EDT Thursday...Upslope rain and snow showers wl
slowly taper off on Sat with blustery and chilly conditions
prevailing. Highs generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s, except
only upper 20s summits. Could we see the guns fire atop
Killington this weekend? Otherwise a general drying trend is
anticipated by Sat night with lows back in the lower 20s to mid
30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 131 PM EDT Thursday...Next week will start with mainly
dry weather and decreasing clouds as high pressure drifts
eastward across the mid-Atlantic on Sunday and temperatures
struggle to reach into the 40s and lower 50s in the afternoon.
The day might also be a bit brisk with wind gusts out of the
west/northwest 15-20 mph, decreasing Sunday night as lows fall
into a seasonable mid 20s to mid 30s. Monday, an upper level
trough and associated surface low pressure is expected to dig
into the region from around James Bay in Canada, advecting
milder air into the forecast area from the southwest. Highs will
get slightly above normal again in the upper 40s and 50s and
lows in the 30s and lower 40s Monday and Monday night.
Meanwhile, we`ll see the gradient tighten again and a low level
jet up to 55-60 knots at 850mb over the area bring gusty winds
at the surface west to southwest gusts up to 20-30 mph, higher
on mountaintops. A cold frontal boundary is anticipated to cross
the forecast area Monday evening and night, bringing with it
increased chances of precipitation about 50-80%, mostly rain
except in the higher terrain some snow overnight. This should
return highs to the 40s and lower 50s and lows in the 20s and
30s along with scattered terrain/upslope precipitation through
the midweek. High pressure will build in again from the
southeastern United States around Wednesday, but most global
models tee up another system for the late week as well.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Rain continues across parts of our area
this evening, bringing with it low ceilings, particularly at TAF
site KMSS and KMPV, which can expect ceilings to remain below
800 feet above ground level through at least 02Z Friday. All
other sites are currently VFR, though not expecting ceilings to
stay at IFR levels in a sustained fashion until perhaps around
the time frame 09Z-16Z Friday when most sites are likely to have
prolonged IFR ceilings. Until then, these sites will likely
bounce between VFR and MVFR ceilings with occasional drops to
IFR cigs.
Any heavier rain may bring visibilities down tonight, though
confidence is not high on where and when this will occur. Main
area of rain lifts north of the international border in the
morning, and we may see a bit of a break in the precipitation as
low pressure moves directly overhead and some drier air briefly
works into the region. However, showers will start to fill back
in from west to east late Friday afternoon as low pressure
shifts into eastern New England. Gusty to locally strong winds
and LLWS are expected to continue through the overnight hours.
The strongest gusts will be at KRUT up to 35-40kts from the
southeast, with up to 30kts at KSLK also from the southeast, and
25-30kts at KMSS and SLK from the northeast.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Definite SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Neiles/Storm
EQUIPMENT...BTV
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