983
FXUS61 KBTV 100557
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
157 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures cool sharply tonight with lows generally in the
upper teens to upper 20s, except mid to upper 30s near Lake
Champlain. Warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected
for Friday and Saturday, before a chance of showers returns late
Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
* Widespread Freezes and Frost Tonight. Lows will range in the
teens to upper 20s for most locations with mid/upper 30s near
Lake Champlain. This will be a threat to any gardens that have
survived recent frosts.
As of 241 PM EDT Thursday... The pressure gradient will weaken
through the afternoon and evening as high pressure moves across
the region. This will result in ideal conditions for radiational
cooling and chilly overnight lows in the teens to upper 20s for
most locations and 30s for locations adjacent to Lake
Champlain. Freeze warnings and a frost advisory are in effect.
There are questions for some spots just inland of Lake Champlain
where models are projecting some light winds developing prior
to sunrise. This may keep freezing temperatures from occurring
as far as the BTV airport, but most locations will remain
susceptible to freezes.
Temperatures trend marginally warmer Friday with winds
decreasing and turning more southerly. Highs will likely range
in the 50s with lows favored in the 30s for most spots and upper
20s in the Adirondacks/northeastern Vermont. Models have
changed markedly for Friday with high pressure shifting
southeast. Previously, the gradient aloft tightened enough to
produce some 15-30mph winds at 850mb. Now, models are trending a
low to remain west of the region keeping the gradient less
compounded resulting in slower speeds; could see some gusts to
around 20 mph in the Champlain Valley with less flow elsewhere.
Still RH will be dropping with mixing heights increasing, so
could see a bump in fire activity should one ignite as duff
dries and becomes a potential contributor to spread - fire
weather concerns are low, but non-zero for very localized areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 241 PM EDT Thursday...Continued high pressure is expected
for Saturday with southerly flow turning easterly late. This
will occur prior to the approach of a coastal low system.
Saturday and Saturday night are expected to remain dry outside
of a few sprinkles for a few spots in far southwestern St
Lawrence County as clouds increasing overnight. Highs will be
more pleasant in the 60s with correspondingly warmer lows in the
30s to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 156 AM EDT Friday...A coastal low approaching the Northeast
will be the main feature to watch as we head into the beginning of
next week. The main story for Sunday night into Monday will be the
increasing chances of precipitation. The latest guidance continues
to support the higher chances of precipitation compared to a few
cycles ago, however how much rainfall is still uncertain, with dry
air across the region at the onset limiting how much will
initially reach the ground. The latest NBM shows a 50 percent
chance of southern Vermont receiving 0.5 inches of rainfall,
with chances decreasing to 30 percent further north with even
lesser chances across the St. Lawrence Valley. There still
remains plenty of uncertainty with this system, so stay tuned.
Chances for showers look to remain through the first half of the
week as the region remains under cyclonic flow. Temperatures
will generally be seasonable for this time of year, trending a
bit cooler towards the middle of next week with highs in the 50s
and 60s and lows generally in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected throughout the
entire forecast period as high pressure remains over the region.
Some fog has developed across some lakes across northern New York,
and while conditions are dry enough that fog development is not
expected by any terminals, VCFG was mentioned at KSLK for the next
few hours. Winds will be light and variable and/or calm overnight
with clear skies. Winds will gradually increase from the south
throughout the day tomorrow, generally between 5 to 10 knots.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Strong radiational cooling is expected Thursday night into
Friday morning. The follow will approach daily records.
Record Low Temperatures:
October 10:
KMPV: 24/1986 (Forecast value: 25)
KSLK: 18/1934 (Forecast value: 16)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002-005-006-
008>011-016>021.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ001.
NY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026>028-035-
087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...BTV
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