451
FXUS61 KBTV 102136
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
536 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of cool overnight temperatures are expected
tonight with low temperatures dipping into the low to mid 30s
for coldest spots and mid 30s to low 40s in broader valleys.
Some frost will be likely for portions of central and eastern
Vermont as well as the Adirondacks. High pressure will linger
into Sunday allowing for warming temperatures into the 60s for
most locations. The next system will bring widespread chances
for rainfall and potential for breezy winds especially for
southern Vermont.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Have increased wind and wind gust forecast tonight across Lake
Champlain as we are seeing higher winds than previously
anticipated and most high res models continue to show the low
level jet causing these winds over the next several hours.
Southerly winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts 25 to 30 knots are
expected for much of the evening hours across the lake. Also,
decreased hourly dew point forecast tonight to better match
observations showing dews in the 20s for most. Previous
discussion below:
* A frost advisory has been issued for tonight for locations
east of the Green Mountains in central and southern Vermont.
As of 534 PM EDT Friday...High pressure remains firmly in place
today through Saturday before beginning to shift as a coastal
low system moves up the Atlantic Coast. Thus, conditions will
remain dry except for a few showers in the St Lawrence Valley as
a weaker low passes through the Great Lakes Region tonight into
Saturday. Lows will be crisp again tonight but moderated some
by breezes related to a weak low level jet passing through.
Gusts on Lake Champlain could reach 25mph overnight where mixing
will be best. Elsewhere some breezes 5 to 10 mph are possible
except east of the Greens where decoupling is more favored. So,
temperatures will be lowest east of the Greens ranging in the
30s with coldest hollows dipping into the upper 20s. Frost is
favored east of the Greens in central/southern Vermont, so the
last frost advisory has been issued. The frost/freeze program
will continue in the Champlain Valley, but we will stop issuing
for this fall for other locations starting Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 139 PM EDT Friday...The next system will approach out of
the south as a coastal low moves northward just off shore in
the west Atlantic. Models continue to struggle with placement
and timing of this system due to a complex set up where a
smaller low tracking south of the Great Lakes Region will likely
merge with the offshore system`s flow. This interaction will be
the key determining factor for timing of rainfall, strength of
winds, and amounts of precipitation expected. Latest consensus
of guidance has slowed onset of precipitation favoring sharper
digging of the Great Lakes low into the base of the upper level
pattern. This has resulted in a more southerly track of the
coastal low resulting in pushing back onset of precipitation
later into Sunday evening/Monday night. Consequently, low level
jet winds have weakened over southern Vermont Sunday with the
core more towards 40kts rather than 60kts as projected 24 hours
ago. Ultimately, this will keep Sunday drier and less breezy.
Still, there could be some marginal fire weather concerns for
southern Vermont as winds turn easterly and downslope a bit.
Gusts to around 20 mph are expected in southern Vermont valleys
during the day with 10-15 mph elsewhere in general. Ridge winds
are still favored to increase overnight into early Monday with
gust in the 30-45 mph range as rainfall chances increase. With
the more southerly track, it is expected that there will be a
sharper precipitation gradient with higher amounts favored for
southern Vermont and lowest amounts in the St Lawrence Valley.
Indeed, easterly flow may preclude even a few hundredths in the
St Lawrence Valley due to compressional warming. QPF amounts
through Sunday night could see only up to 0.5 inches in southern
Vermont, but could be lower if the forecast continues its
current trend.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 139 PM EDT Friday...he main feature to start the long term
forecast will be the continuance of a coastal low that will be
positioned off Long Island, NY by Monday next week. Latest
trends have been towards lower precipitation chances and amounts
due to better confidence in a drier air mass across Vermont.
However, it is still likely (50- 60%) that some locations in
southern Vermont will see some precipitation, perhaps up to 0.5"
(50% chance), on Monday. Precipitation chances further north is
more uncertain with model difference in how the system
overcomes the dry air and how far north the system itself moves.
The northward progress will be limited by a high off to the
northeast and a closed low that will be decaying to the
southwest of the region leading to some blocking conditions.
Better ideas of the system evolution should come tomorrow with
more hi-res guidance.
Further into next week, temperatures look to be relatively
seasonable with highs in the 40s in the higher terrain and 50s
elsewhere. Lows will be chilly in the mid 30s to low 40s for most,
with a gradual cooling trend towards the end of next week. Some lows
in the 20s in the Adirondacks look possible by late week with 925mb
temperatures around 0C. A strong high over the British Isles will
set up a blocking pattern over the Atlantic and subsequently our
region for the majority of next week. Persistent cloud cover, and
shower chances from ridge riding clipper systems, will occupy most
of our weather next week. A welcome wetter pattern change for those
in drought conditions with cyclonic flow, more resemblent of our
past winter and spring, returning. Currently the best chance (40-
50%) for more widespread precipitation looks to be Wednesday night
into Thursday with a more defined frontal system.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected to continue
throughout the forecast period. Southerly winds are generally around
10 knots across all terminals, outside of RUT which is sheltered
from the higher winds. Winds at MSS/BTV and at times PBG could gust
up to 20 knots this afternoon as a low-level jet approaches the
region with good channeled valley flows. As an inversion develops by
06Z, surface winds will decouple and trend towards weaker winds at 5
to 10 knots across the area. With the low-level jet present around
2000 ft agl, LLWS will be possible, particularly in northern New
York at MSS/SLK where the jet will be maximized. The jet weakens by
sunrise tomorrow with most terminals returning to prevailing
southerly flow at 5 to 10 knots through the remainder of the TAF
period. When this weakening of the jet occurs could play a role in
some localized patchy fog at MPV or SLK. While fog confidence is
low, earlier jet weakening could lead to an hour or two of patchy
fog near or just after sunrise at MPV/SLK, though this would be very
short lived. Did not include any mention of fog in this TAF forecast
however.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for Lake Champlain this
evening into the early overnight with sustained winds 15 to 25
knots and gusts 25 to 30 knots are anticipated over the next
several hours, causing lake waves of 2 to 4 feet.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
VTZ006-008-010-020-021.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Storm
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
MARINE...Storm
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