632
FXUS61 KBTV 270551
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
151 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cool start to the morning is expected today with temperatures
in the mid 40s to mid 50s and some patchy fog. A warm and dry
weekend is expected with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s
with some more morning fog possible tomorrow. Much above normal
temperatures continue through early next week before cooler
weather arrives by midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 150 AM EDT Saturday...A stalling frontal boundary lingering
showers across the forecast area will sink southward early this
morning, giving way to high pressure directly overhead by
sunrise as valley fog burns off. This high pressure will result
in light, terrain driven winds, mostly sunny skies, and dry
conditions throughout the day today with relative humidity
values around 40-70% by this afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s
for most, about 3-6 degrees above seasonable averages for late
September here in northern New York and Vermont. Moisture aloft
and an upper level shortwave is expected to flow in from the
southwest, resulting in gradually increasing clouds in the
afternoon and evening today. However, we`re not anticipating any
precipitation to reach the forecast area this weekend.
Winds will increase slightly from the south and southwest tonight as
that wave passes overhead, and clouds are forecast to start clearing
out again ahead of sunrise tomorrow morning from west to east.
Valley fog is possible again tonight, especially more towards the
dawn hours tomorrow morning, but likely isolated to the Connecticut
River Valley and southern/central Adirondacks due to the elevated
surface winds. Lows will be on the milder side under increased cloud
cover and in southerly flow, only in the upper 40s to lower 60s,
about 10-15 degrees above normals.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Saturday...Surface high pressure, building upper
ridge, and warm air advection in west/northwesterly flow will start
next week off warm and dry with 925mb model temperature projections
as high as 18-21C in the afternoons. Surface highs are likely to
reach into the mid 70s to lower 80s both tomorrow and Monday.
Tomorrow looks to be slightly breezy as a weak, dry frontal boundary
may pass through the forecast area turning winds from westerly to
northwesterly. Fog looks again possible Sunday night under clear
skies, temps falling into the 40s to lower 50s, and lighter winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 213 PM EDT Friday...Ridging and high pressure will be the name
of the game for the entirety of this long-term forecast. Next week
looks to start on the mild side Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 70s, however, high pressure will begin to nudge southward by
Tuesday. This nudging of high pressure will keep any tropical
moisture to the south and out of the area. As the high will not
fully be overhead Tuesday, and since tropical moisture will continue
to be stuck in the Mid- Atlantic, we could be situated between the
two systems with a tight pressure gradient. Winds Tuesday afternoon
could be on the breezy side, particularly in the Champlain Valley
from channeled northerly flow. A dry cold front is expected to cross
the area by mid to late week which will drop temperatures into the
50s and 60s for highs.
Beyond the front, an even stronger area of high pressure will build
out of the Hudson Bay and drop south, moving overhead over central
New York. This high looks to be near 1030 mb which will drastically
cut down on our precipitation chances by late week into the weekend.
With the high overhead and clearing calm conditions, temperatures
overnight Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday could drop into the upper
20s to low 40s. This will mean frost could be possible for many
locations, in particular in the Adirondacks, Greens, and Northeast
Kingdom. A reminder that our frost products will end on Oct 1 in the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom as this is the climatological end
to the growing season. Elsewhere our frost products will continue
beyond Oct. 1. The calm conditions under the high also will mean
good chances for abundant patchy overnight fog in the river valleys
mid to late week. All in all, there is high confidence in a quiet,
clear, and calm next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...A few showers moving through 00-03Z could
briefly reduce CIGs to MVFR should a shower move over a
terminal. SLK stands the best chance to have an on terminal
shower while there is about a 30% chance at PBG and BTV. Some
fog could develop overnight as CIGs begin to clear. However,
breezes aloft could preclude fog. Best chances of IFR due to fog
will be at SLK/MPV and to a lesser extent MSS. High pressure
moving in Saturday will keep skies mostly clear, but can`t rule
our a few020-035 layer of shallow fair weather CU.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Boyd/Danzig
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