000
FXUS61 KBTV 221718
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
118 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide us one more sunny, warm day today before
it shifts eastward, making way for a low pressure system to track
close to the forecast area this weekend. The system could produce
increased clouds and periods of rain with more isolated showers
potentially lingering into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 116 PM EDT Friday...It`s a pretty nice afternoon out
there, with ample sunshine, light winds, and seasonable
temperatures. Some fair weather cumulus have bubbled over the
higher terrain and much of south central Vermont, which is a bit
more than expected. High clouds from Potential Tropical Cyclone
16 are also spreading into southern areas. Have therefore made
some adjustments to sky cover, especially from Montpelier
southward. Otherwise the forecast is in good shape and no other
changes were needed.

Previous discussion...The high pressure that has been bringing
sunny, warm days and foggy, chilly nights will begin to progress
eastward today, but not before bringing us highs today in the
lower to mid 70s and mostly sunny skies. Later in the day, high
clouds will begin to overspread from south to north and continue
throughout tonight ahead of our next weather system. This
should allow for a slightly more mild night with lows in the 40s
to lower 50s. Tomorrow will be more seasonable with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. PoPs start to increase across
southern Vermont about 10-30% at most late in the day as rain
showers approach. More on that and our next weather system
below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 318 AM EDT Friday...Still a lot of uncertainty for Saturday
night into Sunday based on track of Potential Tropical Cyclone
Sixteen. Not a lot of model agreement on how far north the storm
will track, which will play a big part in whether we will see some
rain for southern Vermont or not. Latest model runs of NAM and GFS
keep the precipitation shunted to our south. ECMWF and Canadian both
bring some precipitation into parts of southern and central Vermont.
For now have gone with a chance of showers across our southern
zones, especially Rutland and Windsor counties. Expect some changes
in the forecast as we get closer and track becomes more clear. At
present time, looks like we could see around a half an inch of
rainfall in southern Rutland and Windsor counties from later in the
day Saturday through early Monday. These rainfall totals would not
be impactful for our region. Temperatures will be close to seasonal
normals during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 318 AM EDT Friday...Chance for showers associated with coastal
system will come to an end by Monday afternoon. From Monday night
through Friday we will have an extended period of dry weather as
high pressure settles over the region out of Canada. Daytime maximum
temperatures will be close to seasonal normals while the overnights
will be on the cool side with some radiational cooling conditions
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...A few fair weather cumulus clouds have
developed across the region this afternoon in response to
abundant sunshine. These shall erode around sunset with
increasing high level clouds moving overhead as potential
tropical cyclone 16 inches northward. These high clouds should
limit fog potential with just a brief mentioned of reduced
ceilings and visibilities at KMPV and KSLK between 9Z and 12Z.
Thereafter, light winds with scattered high clouds are expected
through the day on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Storm
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Clay