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  Thursday June 20, 2024

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion



607
FXUS61 KBTV 172355
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
755 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A period of dangerously high heat starts on Tuesday and will
persist into Thursday. Highs will reach well into the 90s each
day, and overnight temperatures will remain muggy and
uncomfortable. Please be sure to take appropriate precautions to
avoid heat stress through the remainder of this week. Although
an isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out Tuesday or
Wednesday, our next best chance for rain arrives late Thursday
into Friday with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 700 PM EDT Monday...Southerly flow around 1025mb high
pres off the New England Coast continues to advect higher
humidity values and warmer temps into our fa. The combination of
southerly winds and dwpts into the 60s, wl result in lows only
lower 60s SLK/NEK to near 70F in the urban heat islands of the
CPV. Strong subsidence and associated deep dry layer should
prevent any convection from developing this evening. Have made
some minor tweaks to temps/dwpts and winds, otherwise fcst is on
track.

Previous discussion below:
The forecast remains on track, with a period of dangerously
warm temperatures expected to start Tuesday.

Ample sunshine across much of the region has allowed
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s in most
locations this afternoon. Dewpoints are already creeping up as
well; readings in the mid and upper 60s are fairly common.
Moisture will continue to increase tonight, and the result will
be a muggy overnight, especially in the St Lawrence and
Champlain Valleys, where lows will only drop to around 70F. Low
to mid 60s are expected elsewhere.

Things really start to heat up on Tuesday, with 925mb
temperatures approaching 25-27C. The question is how much cloud
cover there will be through the day. A weak shortwave currently
moving into western NY is producing some convection this
afternoon. This feature will continue to slowly push eastward
tonight and Tuesday. While current expectations are that the
convective activity will wane as it approaches the North
Country, there very well could be debris clouds passing overhead
during the morning and early afternoon hours. While it`s hard
to discern just how extensive this cloud cover may be, there are
some indications that it could be thick enough to limit warming
just a touch tomorrow. Have therefore lowered the maximum
temperature forecast just a tad, though really just by a degree
or two - not enough to make an appreciable difference. With
dewpoints to approach or even exceed 70F, still anticipate
dangerously high heat index values in the mid/upper 90s to
around 100F. Even if we do get more clouds than expected, it
will still be very warm tomorrow, so please make sure to follow
the proper heat precautions.

Otherwise, while a stray thunderstorm or two can`t be totally
ruled out given the abundance of moisture and instability that
will be available, continue to believe that tomorrow will be
dry. Tuesday night will be even warmer and more uncomfortable
than tonight; lows will likely remain in the 70s in the wider
valleys, with upper 60s in higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 333 PM EDT Monday...A prolonged period of dangerous heat
is expected to continue across the region through Thursday. A
strong upper level ridge will continue to amplify as it shifts
towards the region, with 925mb temperatures reaching or
exceeding +25C. The current forecast shows high temperatures
soaring into the 90s for Wednesday and Thursday, with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s leading to heat indices in the mid
90s to low 100s. There is a non- zero chance for precipitation
throughout the period given the abundant moisture and hot
temperatures. In addition to the hot daytime temperatures,
overnight low temperatures will also remain warm with mist
places struggling to drop below 70s which will add to the
cumulative impacts of the heat. Experimental NWS HeatRisk
highlights the threat well, showing major to extreme risk of
heat related impacts for the middle of this week. Be sure to
practice heat safety by staying hydrated, avoiding strenuous
outdoor activity and checking up on your family, friends,
neighbors, and those most vulnerable to heat.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 333 PM EDT Monday...The ridge begins to flatten out and a
frontal boundary will start to drop through the region Thursday
night into Friday, providing some relief to the heat. While the
overall forcing and moisture is rather lackluster, instability
will be quite high given the heat and humidity which will may
allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the front.
Temperatures during the day on Friday will be cooler but still
be on the warm side for this time of year, with high
temperatures in the 80s to lower 60s across southern Vermont
depending on how quickly the front passes through. Temperatures
heading into the weekend will remain on the warmer side of
normal heading into the weekend, with more chances for showers
as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period. Skies trending toward FEW-SCT overnight, with
mainly mid/high clouds expected. Some localized MVFR/IFR will be
possible in patchy fog 08z-12z, mainly in CT River Valley and
St Lawrence Valley, though some winds right off the deck may
prevent this. Slight chance of showers/thunderstorms after 12z
Tue, especially over higher terrain. South/southwest winds up
to 10 kt will become light and variable overnight, then picking
back up to around 5 kt late in the period.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the
middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat
of being broken.

Record High Temperatures:

June 18:
KBTV: 97/1994 Forecast 96
KMPV: 93/1994 Forecast 92
KPBG: 94/1994 Forecast 92
KMSS: 97/1994 Forecast 94
KSLK: 94/1907 Forecast 91

June 19:
KBTV: 100/1995 Forecast 97
KMPV: 95/1995 Forecast 93
KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 94
KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 93
KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 91

June 20:
KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 96
KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 92
KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 92
KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 91
KSLK: 92/1995 Forecast 90


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 19:
KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 69

June 20:
KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 72
KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 66

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Taber
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...Team BTV



 
 
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