419
FXUS61 KBTV 082323
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
723 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow.
2. A warming trend and increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the first half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front passes through the region late in the day
tomorrow and tomorrow night, bringing some showers and
thunderstorms. Before then, a very weak area of low pressure will
track up the Saint Lawrence Valley tomorrow and tomorrow evening.
Most of the rain during the day will fall along a stationary warm
front oriented west to east along and north of the international
border. Thankfully, the synoptic forcing will be weak and the
atmosphere will lack some components for heavy rainfall, so any
flooding remains unlikely despite a potentially problematic synoptic
setup. The rain will fall in multiple rounds that are moving and
have gaps in between them. These showers and storms will move
southeast through the region later in the afternoon and in the
evening. In northern areas, 0-6 KM shear looks to reach 30-35 KT,
while it looks to remain well under 30 KT farther south. CAPE values
look to range in the 500-750 J range where clouds associated with
this initial rain do not remain in place. This leads to a marginal
threat for severe weather, where isolated strong to severe storms
are possible, mainly across northern areas. However, poor lapse
rates and dry air aloft will further lower the severe threat. The
main threat would be damaging winds. Behind the front, cooler and
drier air infiltrates the region on Friday and will remain in place
for the weekend. High temperatures this weekend look to be in the
upper 70s and 80s, while lows should be in the 50s to around 60.
Humidity will be relatively low and dry weather will prevail through
the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Ridging will build into the Northern Plains early next
week while an upper trough exits to our east. This will place
northern NY and New England under northwest flow. Models continue to
indicate a couple of weak fronts/surface troughs to ride through
this northwest flow and cross our region. However, timing varies
quite a bit from model and run to run, leading to considerable
uncertainty. Both moisture and warmth will increase through this
period, with highs approaching 90F and dewpoints rising into the
60s. With this in mind, any thunderstorms could be on the strong
side if any boundaries/fronts happen to push across the region
during peak heating. The exact timing is difficult to pin point this
far out though, especially given the differences in model solutions,
so have stayed with NBM/WPC forecast for now, with 25-40% PoPs each
afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Generally VFR conditions are expected over
the next several hours. South or southwest winds may remain at
KBTV and KMSS, but winds will trend light and variable for most.
Just off the ground, it seems there will be some wind that
should prevent fog, but they slacken some near KMPV. Crossover
temperatures will be tough to reach, and so radiation fog seems
less likely, tonight, and mentioned just a 3SM TEMPO from
08z-11z there. A frontal boundary is expected to shift south
after 18z with showers and thunderstorms, especially near the
international border. The feature will be slow to sag south, and
so it may not reach KMPV or KRUT until near or after 00z.
PROB30s for TSRA were noted then for KMSS, KSLK, KPBG, and KBTV.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Isolated TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance TSRA, Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes
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