628
FXUS61 KBTV 200941
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
541 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 538 AM EDT Saturday...

The Flood Warning has been canceled this morning as rain moved
out of the region. Moderate to heavy rainfall in showers and
isolated thunderstorms today may still lead to isolated
flooding, primarily across the northern Adirondacks and north-
central Vermont.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 252 AM EDT Saturday...

1. Moderate to heavy rainfall today may lead to isolated
flooding, primarily across the northern Adirondacks and north-
central Vermont. Showers and thunderstorms today and Sunday are
expected to produce an additional 0.25-1.25" across northern
New York and Vermont.

2. Another system anticipated to bring more rain early next
week has the potential to produce localized moderate to heavy
rainfall in southern Vermont.

3. Unsettled pattern prevails for mid to late week with temps
at or slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 252 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Vertically stacked low pressure stretched across the
Canadian maritimes will continue swinging shortwaves through the
Northeast today with showers ongoing across much of northern New
York and Vermont early this morning. In the last 6 hours, reports of
rain have been 0.50-1.00", bringing us to 48 hour totals
approaching 4.00 inches in parts of north-central Vermont. This
is especially hazardous given we still have hours before
sunrise, and the dangers of flooding are harder to recognize in
the dark. A Flood Warning has been issued for portions of
Addison, Washington, Chittenden, Franklin, and Lamoille counties
of Vermont through 715 AM. We continue to monitor the potential
for any isolated flooding issues that may arise today, and
several river rises are anticipated. Multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms are forecast today and Sunday, with additional
precipitation amounts as high as 0.25-1.25" total, though some
spots will likely see higher amounts depending on where
thunderstorms occur. The widespread precip and clouds this
weekend will likely keep highs below seasonal normals around the
60s and 70s and lows in the upper 40s and 50s. These
temperatures might feel a touch cooler today with wind gusts
15-25 knots out of the west and northwest.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Upper level closed low pressure will cross from Ontario
to Quebec sometime on Monday as a surface low pressure moves through
the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic. The majority of guidance is now
showing likely measurable precipitation for the central Adirondacks,
south-central Vermont, and the Northeast Kingdom sometime Monday and
Monday night, though the exact track of the surface low will
determine just how far north we can get precipitation and how much
precipitation will occur. Latest trends bring the system slightly
more south, slightly lowering amounts. Most likely precip amounts
run around 0.05-0.20" in far northern and northwestern New York
while areas south and east can be anywhere from 0.20-1.20", the
highest of those amounts in southern and south-central Vermont. At
this time, there is also a brief possibility of a thunderstorm or
two in southern Vermont on Monday afternoon. Temperatures Monday are
expected to reach the 70s for most areas, though much will depend on
how far north the precipitation reaches. If the storm tracks farther
north, we could see temperatures struggle to reach these values. If
it tracks farther south, temperatures would be more likely to exceed
these values.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Mid/upper lvl trof wl cont acrs the NE CONUS into the
central Great Lakes for days 4 thru 7. This wl keep the heat and
humidity mainly south of our cwa, along with the best instability
parameters most of next week. Timing of individual s/w`s and
associated sfc low pres tracks are challenging in fast/progressive
flow aloft, especially late next week. After departing rain showers
on Tues, weak high pres should result in a mostly dry Weds acrs our
cwa. Next system arrives Thurs/Friday as northern stream energy
moves from the Great Lakes into the NE CONUS. Still plenty of spread
in magnitude and evolution of this system, but general idea of
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms looks good. Highest
potential based on latest WPC fcst is late Thurs into Friday. Given
recent rainfall and saturated soils acrs most of northern NY into
central/northern VT, the potential for flooding wl need to be
monitored as we move forward. Additional s/w energy and sfc low pres
arrive for next weekend, with the potential for more showers and
thunderstorms. The overall pattern supports chances for precip every
couple of days, as mean trof remains acrs our cwa. Temps mostly in
the mid 70s to lower 80s for mid week, before cooling back into the
upper 60s to mid 70s by late next week, with lows mid 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Radar shows a narrow axis of moderate rain
from northern NY into BTV/MPV area this morning with current
flight conditions trending toward MVFR at many sites. Expecting
lowering ceilings with MVFR conditions likely at EFK/MPV/BTV and
MSS, while SLK trends toward IFR ceilings in the next 1 to 2
hours. Intervals of IFR is possible in the heavier shower
activity this morning at EFK/MPV and briefly at BTV. Have
utilized tempo groups to cover this potential for the 1st 6
hours. Otherwise, additional scattered to numerous showers are
expected today into this aftn. Have highlighted this potential
with PROB30 groups at most sites with a mix of MVFR/VFR
conditions expected. IFR cigs at SLK should lift btwn 15-17z.
Westerly winds 5 to 10 knots with a few localized gusts 10 to 20
knots expected today.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Taber/Storm
AVIATION...Taber