551
FXUS61 KBTV 080706
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
206 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will wind down today as cold front pushes east of of
our area this afternoon. A complex system will approach Sunday
into Monday, bringing another round of precipitation and some
wintry weather to the region. Unsettled weather will continue
through next week, accompanied by seasonally cool temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Saturday...Surface cold front pushing across
our forecast area early this morning still bringing areas of
showers and also gusty winds, especially in the Champlain and St
Lawrence valleys. Precipitation will become more orographically
influenced this afternoon as front exits eastward and flow
becomes northwesterly. Drier air will filter into the region
this afternoon, bringing precipitation to an end. Maximum
temperatures today will range from the lower 40s to mid 50s.
A low pressure system will track along a surface boundary
stretched across the Ohio river valley. Precipitation will
spread north into our forecast area later tonight. Precipitation
should start out as snow in most areas, but we could see some
mixed precipitation as well as we have some warmer air aloft.
Minimum temperatures tonight will be in the 20s areawide. On
Sunday, low pressure center will lift northward into our
forecast area, bringing warm air advection along with it.
Additional mixed precipitation will be possible especially
Sunday morning, but then precipitation should change to plain
rain in most areas. Northeasterly winds will be hard to get rid
of in St Lawrence valley, therefore this area will see the
longest period of freezing rain. Temperatures will struggle to
rise above freezing in the St Lawrence valley, but the rest of
our area will see afternoon highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Saturday...Low pressure system tracks east of
our region on Sunday night. Will see another period of mixed
precipitation overnight, then a change to snow eventually on
Monday. Starkly different temperatures are expected Sunday night
with 20s across northern New York and 30s in Vermont.
Temperatures will struggle to rise very far on Monday, and
maximum temperatures will range from the low 30s in northern New
York to mid to upper 30s in Vermont. Precipitation will change
to mainly just rain and snow showers on Monday with orographic
enhancements expected as flow turns northwesterly behind
departing system. As with any mixed precipitation event, there
is still plenty of uncertainty, especially in regards to how
quickly transitions may occur and exact temperature profiles, so
be sure to monitor the forecast. Given this may be some of the
first wintry conditions of the season for many, be sure to use
caution as travel conditions may be hazardous. Future shifts may
consider winter weather headlines, but did not have the
confidence yet to issue one now. Precipitation totals from
tonight through Monday will be around half an inch to an inch of
liquid equivalent. An inch or two of snow is possible, as well
as some ice accretions especially in northern New York.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Saturday...The entire work week ahead looks to
remain unsettled as the region continues to be under the
influence of large scale upper level troughing over the Great
Lakes and eastern Canada. A polar gyre will continue to linger
over northern Quebec as blocked flow over the north Atlantic
prevents any forward system propagation. A long wave trough will
continue to dig and amplify to our west Monday night into
Tuesday with strong caa. Cold frontal showers will exit east
Monday night as flow becomes more west/northwesterly for
Tuesday. This flow pattern will be conducive for lake effect
shower activity given the temperature differences in lake
temperatures and air temperatures. A good lake effect snow event
looks increasingly likley for areas downstream of Lake Ontario,
however, for our typical lake effect regions, the lake effect
band looks to set up just south on Tuesday. Locations in
southern St. Lawrence County on Tuesday will see just increased
cloud cover at this time. Elsewhere northwest flow will allow
for persist upslope shower chances in the northwestern
Adirondacks and northern Greens. Tuesday will be the coldest day
of the week with highs only into the low to mid 30s and lows in
the 20s. Temperatures will become more seasonable through the
remainder of the week as our flow pattern turns more westerly
and zonal. We will remain on the western edge of cyclonic flow
across the Canadian Maritimes, hence rain/mtn snow shower
chances from a few passing weak shortwaves, remain through the
end of the week. Highs will be in the mid 30s to low 40s with
lows in the low 20s to low 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Prefrontal clouds and light showers are
moving through the region with mostly VFR conditions ahead of an
approaching cold front in eastern Ontario. The main hazard is
periodic wind gusts up to 20 to 25 kts over the next 6-12 hours,
particularly at BTV/PBG/MSS. The low level jet at 2000ft agl
with winds to 45 to 50 kts will slide eastward with the front
bringing an end to widespread LLWS by 12Z. Gusty southerly winds
at BTV/PBG will linger ahead of the cold front but as the front
crosses the region, winds will gradually weaken and shift to
the northwest by this afternoon. Precipitation associated with
the front itself looks to fall apart as it moves through, with
just -SHRA at MSS/SLK, and perhaps PBG. Confidence is low in any
visibility reductions, so have just used PROB30 groups. The
current timing of the front is between 10-12Z for northern New
York and 12-14Z for Vermont terminals. Ceilings look to briefly
reduce to MVFR 1500-2500ft agl as the front crosses each
terminal, with perhaps a low probability of IFR cigs at SLK, but
overall ceilings should quickly improve back to VFR behind the
front. Some blocked flow at BTV by 14Z, could also enhance
reduced ceilings to 2000ft agl. Ceilings will remain overcast
through the evening, with weakening northwest surface flow.
Outlook...
Sunday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
RA, Likely SN, Definite FZRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite SHRA, Definite FZRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely
SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SHSN.
Veterans Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for Lake Champlain
through this morning. Channeling effects on Lake Champlain
enhancing wind and wave conditions with strong southerly flow in
place. Winds on the broad lake will be sustained 25 to 30 knots
with gusts as high as 40 knots. Waves will be generally 2 to 4
ft, building to 3 to 5 ft during the strongest winds. Winds
should generally weaken this afternoon as low level jet moves
away from the area.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
MARINE...Neiles
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