605
FXUS61 KBTV 300552
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
152 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 751 PM EDT Wednesday...
The Flood Watch is expiring at 8 PM. Some showers remain
possible tonight into tomorrow.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Periods of rain continue tonight through tomorrow.
2. Trending drier heading into the first half of the weekend.
3. Thunderstorm potential for Sunday and Monday, followed by a
warming trend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A surface low has tracked north through southern New
England and into southern Vermont today, bringing an area of rain
back into the region. The rain will attempt to continue north, but
the low will be occluding and weakening. Rainfall rates with the
band continue to decrease, with peak hourly amounts mostly around
and below 0.3 inches. The rain will continue to lighten as the
afternoon and evening progress, though some light rain will likely
re-enter northern areas. Overall, around 1-3 inches has fallen, with
additional amounts up to around an inch possible. Outside the main
area of low pressure, areas of convection developed in the immediate
St. Lawrence Valley this morning. A narrow strip of 2-3 inches has
fallen in the Ogdensburg area and south, but it has not been enough
to cause any flooding. The remaining convection is currently in the
process of weakening. The terrain there is not very susceptible to
flash flooding and it would take notably more rain to cause any. As
the main area of low pressure makes its way north, the synoptic rain
and clouds will minimize the instability, and subsidence in the
areas just outside the shield of precipitation should start to
dampen any additional convection as well. While widespread rainfall
will continue into tomorrow, it will become scattered and mostly
confined to eastern areas, except in the afternoon when diurnal
heating will cause some weak convection. Overall, the flood threat
has decreased. While an isolated area of flash flooding still cannot
be completely ruled out in southern/central Vermont and Essex
County, it is looking increasingly less likely.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The upper-level low becomes cut off and gradually exits
heading through Friday, though the dynamics will be too weak and too
far east to produce any more significant precipitation. However,
isolated showers are possible on Friday due to the diurnal heating.
Ridging briefly becomes established on Saturday, and the day should
be mostly dry. Temperatures will be seasonable during this stretch,
with highs in the 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s and low 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: On Sunday and Monday, showers and thunderstorms will move
along a trough of low pressure. While the air mass will have plenty of
moisture to tap into, we are looking at quick moving air mass
thunderstorms. Given the wet antecedent conditions, we will
continue to monitor this system for any potential impacts.
As the trough exits our region, high pressure will build in with dry
and stable air. Tuesday and Wednesday will be significantly warmer than
average, with valley locations reaching int the mid 80s for daytime
highs and mid 50s to mid 60s for nighttime lows.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Closed/weakening 500mb low centered across
sern NY at 0530Z will maintain VFR ceilings and areas of light
rain across the North Country TAF sites this morning. Vsby will
generally remain 6SM or higher, though brief MVFR conditions
can`t be ruled out. With daytime heating, scattered convective
showers will develop during the afternoon hours with just a
slight chance of thunder. Generally handled afternoon shower and
isold tstm threat with PROB30 groups. As low shifts to the
east, winds will generally go from light and variable to N/NE at
5-8kts for the balance of the daylight hours. Better potential
for partial clearing Thursday night may lead to isold FG/BR
potential 06-12Z Friday, especially at EFK/MPV/SLK.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Langbauer
AVIATION...Banacos
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