549
FXUS61 KBTV 061150
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
650 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level trough remains over the region today leading to
continuing mountain rain and snow showers, especially northwest
facing slopes. Another frontal system approaches the area on
Friday bringing next chance for precipitation to the area.
Weather will continue to be unsettled through the weekend as an
upper level trough remains anchored over the northeast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM EST Thursday...Rain and mountain show showers will
continue into the morning as upper level trough pushes east of
our area later this afternoon. Surface high pressure will ridge
into the area this afternoon, helping to shut down any remaining
precipitation. Conditions will remain blustery on northwesterly
flow, though have cancelled the wind advisory as low level jet
is moving east of our region early this morning. Maximum
temperatures today will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s, but we
could even see the sun in the wider valleys in the afternoon.
Northwesterly winds will be on the decrease throughout the day
as well, keeping clusters of clouds in the mountains.
Tonight will mainly be dry as high pressure continues to ridge
over the north country. Skies will become mostly clear, and
temperatures will drop pretty sharply. Minimum temperatures will
be in the upper teens to lower 30s. On Friday clouds will
increase out of the south ahead of next approaching system.
Precipitation will move into our forecast area from the west
during Friday afternoon. Ahead of the precipitation maximum
temperatures will be warm, generally ranging from the mid 40s to
around 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM EST Thursday...Precipitation will continue to
spread across the area Friday night, and will mainly fall as
rain with minimum temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Precipitation chances will decrease towards early Saturday
morning, but some lingering wrap around showers are expected as
the low level flow becomes northwesterly. Most of this system
will be rain, with some wet snowflakes possibly mixing in at
highest elevations. Overall expecting about 0.10-0.25" of
precipitation from Friday through early Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 AM EST Thursday...An active weather pattern looks to
continue through the end of the weekend and into the better
portion of next week. Upper level troughing over James Bay will
diverge and stretch allowing for a gradual breakdown of a
cyclonic gyre Sunday and Monday. Good ensemble consensus favors
an amplifying long wave digging south associated with a
deepening low to start next week. As the low sags south
frontogenesis along the warm front should provide scattered
precipitation chances areawide Sunday. The trough will continue
to amplify Monday with south to north flow and increased
moisture advection, especially over eastern Vermont and the
Northeast Kingdom. However, as the system tracks closer, the
moisture corridor looks to eastward with the bulk of the
precipitation quickly translating into New Hampshire. This
amplification will also lead to periods of gusty winds,
especially in the Champlain Valley and south to north oriented
valleys Monday. A tight thermal gradient looks to set up along
the moisture corridor with mountain snow likely, while valley
temperatures should remain in rain. Periods of mixed
precipitation look to be supported in the low to mid slopes of
the higher terrain Monday. As the system slides over the region
Monday night, strong caa from northwest flow will lower snow
levels towards valley floors supporting some snow showers late
Monday night and Tuesday morning. Moisture profiles weaken
Tuesday as flow becomes more zonal and some lake effect showers
develop. The lake axis should stay to the south, but extreme
southern portions of St. Lawrence County in New York could see
some increased cloud cover and scattered showers. Snow levels
will lift back towards the mid to upper slopes by mid week as
subtle shortwaves will lift the 540dm height line northward for
daytime rain and more elevation dependent snow.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...A mix of flight categories continues
across the region as a strong low pressure system departs to the
east. Terrain enhanced snow showers are contributing to
lingering IFR ceilings around 1000ft agl with vsbys to 2SM at
SLK. Elsewhere most sites are slowly trending back towards high
MVFR/VFR with ceilings 2500 ft agl to 3500 ft agl. Delays in
trends to VFR will be due to isolated to scattered rain showers
primarily at MPV/EFK/RUT for an hour or two, before tapering off
and ceilings increase towards VFR for the remainder of the day.
West/northwest winds will increase as precipitation tapers off
this morning. Gusts up to 20 to 25 kts with sustained winds 10
to 15 kts are expected at most terminals. Winds will peak this
morning and gradually decrease into the evening. Calmer and
clearing conditions are expected overnight tonight.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Slight chance RA, Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA,
Chance SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwest winds 15 to 30 knots with gusts as high as 35 to 45
knots into this morning associated with downsloping winds and a
low level jet. Winds will be highest in the broad waters of the
lake. Waves 3 to 5 feet possible. Winds are expected to weaken
this afternoon and tonight.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
MARINE...Storm
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