197
FXUS61 KBTV 100625
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
225 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 222 AM EDT Sunday...
Frost coverage for tonight and Monday night have been increased.
Frost advisories will be likely forthcoming as the growing season
for much of Vermont and portions of Northern New York begin on May
11th.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 222 AM EDT Sunday...
1. Rain chances to continue through Monday afternoon.
2. Cooler and drier late Monday through the middle of the week.
Overnight frost is likely across much of the region tonight and
Monday night.
3. Gradual warming trend to near and above normal temperatures
late next week and weekend with a few chances of showers or rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 222 AM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A pre-frontal trough has been the focus for overnight
rain showers and some gusty winds up to 30 mph. The ongoing round of
precipitation will exit to the north and east between 4 and 5 AM
with a break in rainfall expected until about 10 AM when some light
rain associated with the main cold front will move into the region.
This round of rain will quickly shift eastward with dry air quickly
undercutting the precipitation and leading to rapidly clearing skies
in the wake. Additional rain showers are possible on Monday with
weak shortwave energy traversing the periphery of the departing
upper level low but will be widely scattered and very light given a
plethora of dry air in the lower levels.
Temperatures will warm nicely under dry adiabatic lapse rates prior
to the mid-level cold air advection kicking in with afternoon highs
climbing into the 60s with a few places possibly approaching 70
degrees. With warming temperatures and clear skies, we expect an
uptick in people heading outdoors to enjoy the nice weather. Gusty
south to southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected through much
of the day so be prepared for these windy conditions if you plan to
be outdoors. In addition, very choppy conditions are expected on
Lake Champlain due to the strong winds. With water temperatures
dangerously cold, in the lower 40s, we encourage anyone on the lake
or other area waterways to have proper PFDs in case of water
immersion.
KEY MESSAGE 2: As deep layer ridging settles into the region over the
next few days, we will see some good radiational cooling night with
light winds and clear skies. This will likely set the stage for
widespread front tonight and again Monday night. As of May 1st, the
growing season had started just for the Champlain Valley but
starting on May 11th, the growing season is expanded to much of
Vermont and portions of northern New York. This will lead to the
likely issuance of frost advisories over the next few nights with
Monday night seeing more widespread frost compared to what is
expected tonight.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Northern stream shortwave and surface low tracks across
Great Lakes and Northeast Wed ngt-Thu for showers and is somewhat
slow to exit so chance of showers will linger Thu ngt-Fri under
upper low/trof. Otherwise as mentioned yesterday...gradual rising
heights and a somewhat flattening flow, not the ridging as it began
as northern stream still has several impulses that dampens the
ridge. Temperatures gradually moderate during this period with
perhaps dry for Saturday and maybe more showers on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...A frontal boundary will move across the
area this morning with a wind shift. Ahead of this is weakening
showers with some MVFR in CIGS thru 12-14z.
SSW winds 8-10 knots becoming WNW by 16z and gusty to 20-25 kts.
Mixing with the cold air advection will allow for bkn-ovc to
become SCT as the morning and aftn progresses.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect through 10 AM. Southwest winds
of 20 to 30 knots are expected early this morning and will
slowly weaken throughout the day but will remain in the 15 to 20
knot range through the daylight hours. Wave heights in the broad
lake are likely to build to 3-4 feet prior to daybreak with
waves diminishing to 2 to 3 feet by early this afternoon.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...SLW/Clay
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...Clay
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