000
FXUS61 KBTV 251726
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
126 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
We remain on the northern fringes of a post-tropical storm with
cloud cover and rain showers continuing to our south. Large
Canadian surface high pressure ridging into our area form the
north. Aside from isolated afternoon showers in the higher
elevations this afternoon, high pressure will effectively build
in through the upcoming week. As a result, seasonable and dry
weather will prevail through the end of the week and possibly
beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 121 PM EDT Monday...Strip of smoke continues to slowly
edge south, and some stratocumulus has developed. High res
guidance continues to attempt developing some showers amidst
shallow instability, but they tend to overdo these kinds of
patterns and not noting anything on radar yet. So have left PoPs
be for now and made slight tweaks to temperatures. The rest of
the forecast remains solid. Previous discussion follows.

Surface ridge will build into our region out of Canada, and
some smoke will be evident on northerly flow from Canadian
wildfires. We also once again have patchy fog that has developed
overnight, especially in areas that have cleared out. Have
continued with slight chance for showers this afternoon,
especially over the higher terrain of the Adirondacks. HRRR
continues to show smoke in the upper levels of the atmosphere
over our region for today. Smoke is not expected to cause
respiratory issues with low concentrations near the surface
based on both upstream observations and modeling. We will likely
see fog develop tonight once again, especially in the typically
fog prone areas. Tuesday will be an ideal fall day with high
pressure continuing to ridge into our area. We will have sunny
skies and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...Tuesday night might be the chilliest
night of the week as the high pressure sits directly overhead,
providing strong subsidence and radiational cooling. Typically
cold portions of the Adirondacks could even briefly reach
freezing temperatures and feature frost during the coldest pre-
dawn hours of the night. Lows outside of these cold spots will
be in the upper 30s to mid-40s, mildest along Lake Champlain,
whose waters are still relatively warm. The night continues to
look favorable for patchy fog in river valleys. A gorgeous dry
and mostly sunny day is in store for the midweek with highs
peaking just a couple degrees above average in the upper 60s to
lower 70s and light/variable winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...Models continue to show the high
breaking down toward the weekend, but overall the impacts are
minimal as we`re still looking at dry weather through early next
week for the forecast area with perhaps some increased clouds
for the weekend/early next week. Highs still look above average
in the upper 60s to lower 70s with lows gradually moderating
from upper 30s - upper 40s late week to mid-40s - mid-50s next
week and nights featuring valley fog.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Conditions are currently VFR with a few
pockets of 3500-7000 ft agl stratocumulus clouds. Winds range
from northwest to northeast, with high spread in speeds between
terminals. KMPV even remains calm, but most are between 7 to 12
knots, except 17 knots at KMSS. A few gusts between 15 and 20
knots, mainly at KRUT and KMSS will be possible through about
22z when winds will gradually trend light and variable. As skies
clear tonight, another round of nocturnal fog should develop in
favored locations like KMPV, KEFK, and KSLK. The potential
exists for KMSS as well, but intervals of 1/2SM to 4SM fog is
likely between about 05z and 13z. After 13z, northeast winds at
4 to 7 knots return and fog should dissipate.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Haynes