533
FXUS61 KBTV 071851
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
251 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 244 PM EDT Tuesday...
No significant changes made.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 244 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. Snow showers quickly dissipate this evening with much below
normal temperatures expected tonight.
2. Near critical fire weather conditions possible for parts of
the area on Thursday due to gusty winds and low humidities.
3. After a late week frontal passage, seasonable and mostly dry
conditions will follow for the weekend. Additional rain chances are
expected through early next week with abnormally warm temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 244 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Interesting early April conditions acrs our fa today,
with potent s/w energy and pocket of favorable mid lvl moisture,
combined with favorable instability parameters to produce
widespread convective type snow showers. Stowe high elevation
snow plot cam indicates 3-4 inches of snow has accumulated,
with just over an inch here at BTV. Moderately strong caa has
developed on brisk northwest flow, as temps have dropped to 29F
here at BTV with 17F atop Whiteface summit as weak low pres
tracks toward Cape Cod. GOES-19 visible satl imagery shows
quickly dissipating cloud cover approaching SLV with sfc dwpts
falling back into the lower single digits, as much drier air
advects into the region. Expect any lingering snow showers to
dissipate by sunset this evening with drier air and loss of sfc
heating/instability. Temps with areas of fresh snow pack and
building 1036mb high pres should drop quickly after sunset. Have
trended lows toward cooler guidance with values in the single
digits to near 20F, coldest SLK/NEK.
Weds should feature plenty of sunshine with 1036mb high pres
directly overhead with deep dry layer and light winds. Have
continued to trend sfc dwpts near the NBM 10th percentile, which
supports RH values in the 20% to 35% range. Winds wl be trrn driven
and under 8 mph. Highs range from near 32F summits to mid/upper 40s
deeper valleys.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Near critical fire weather conditions possible for parts of
the area on Thursday due to gusty winds and low humidities. The
strongest winds are expected over the northern Champlain Valley
and parts of northern NY, while the lowest humidities will be
across the deeper valleys locations of VT on Thurs aftn.
Mid/upper lvl trof and associated weakening boundary approach
our cwa on Thursday with strengthening low lvl wind fields.
Progged 925mb to 850mb winds increase btwn 30 and 50 knots on
Thurs, while high pres is shifting off the East Coast. Soundings
at BTV show inversion height around 925mb with top of the mixed
layer of 40 knots, so anticipate enhanced channeled flow acrs
the northern/central CPV on Thurs morning. Localized gusts 30 to
40 mph possible around sunrise at BTV. As sfc heating occurs
mixing heights increase to 900mb, which wl continue to produce
localized gusts up to 40 mph, but also help to mix drier air
near ridgetops toward the sfc. Have utilized NBM 10th percentile
dwpts to lower min RH values into the 22% to 35% range, with
driest air acrs central/eastern VT. Winds wl be lighter in the
CT River Valley and parts of central/northern VT, including the
NEK with gusts in the 15 to 30 mph range, as stronger gradient
is acrs the CPV and parts of northern NY on Thurs. Depending
upon how quickly fine fuels dry out on Weds and after
coordination with our fire weather partners, we may need an SPS
for near critical fire weather conditions. Progged 925mb temps
in the 6-10C with favorable southerly flow support highs well
into the upper 50s to mid 60s, especially downslope areas of the
northern Dacks and parts of the CPV away from Lake Champlain.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A frontal system is forecast to track across the area
Friday bringing chances for rain for most of the region, through
uncertainty in amounts remains. Models have trended towards a
wetting rain with a low that tracks either over or just north of the
region. Ensembles denote precipitation totals between 0.25-0.5
inches, with solutions favoring an overhead track yielding the
higher threshold precipitation amounts. These higher solutions
include the GFS, whereas lesser amount solutions include the ECMWF.
Regardless, widespread precipitation chances exist during the day
Friday before clearing out Friday night. More seasonable
temperatures will follow this system for the weekend with more dry
and seasonable conditions. Daytime highs will be in the 50s with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s as high pressure builds in
Saturday. Saturday night will be the cooler of the two days as the
high crests over the region.
Temperatures will begin a warming trend heading into next week as
our flow becomes south dominant with our high sliding east. 925mb
temps will warm to 15-20C Monday and Tuesday, peaking Tuesday
afternoon. These warm upper air temperatures will support surface
highs in the mid to upper 60s, and perhaps near 70 degrees to start
next week. These warm temperatures will be accompanied by breezy to
gusty afternoon winds and shower chances as a boundary will be
draped to the northwest. Shortwaves will ride along a positively-
tilted long wave trough across the Great Lakes leading to rounds of
shower chances, mainly across northern New York and extreme
northwestern Vermont which could inhibit the max heating during the
afternoon hours. A low level 850mb jet between 50-60 MPH will also
lead to breezy to gusty winds in the south to north oriented valleys
in addition to the warmup expected. Mid April looks to give a us a
renewed taste of the summer to come.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Changeable conditions will continue for
at least the next 2-3 hours across the region as an area of
surface low pressure rotates eastward this afternoon. Blocked
flow in the Champlain Valley will keep IFR chances high for the
next 2 hours or so. Satellite imagery depicts a shift to more
showery snow rather than the stratiform snow from this morning
as some areas of clearing are becoming evident. In these pockets
of clearing, intermittent gusty winds up to 20-25 MPH have been
observed and should continue into this evening, before winds
trend towards calm. A pivot point of an occluded front centered
between BTV/MPV/EFK will continue to lift northward towards EFK
which could bring some 1/2 to 1SM visibilities to the Northeast
Kingdom by 20-22Z. As the low shifts east, and snow becomes more
showery, hi res models in tandem with model sounds suggest a
brief period between 21-23Z in the Champlain Valley for
BTV/PBG/RUT where some MVFR snow showers may pass through. The
backside of this system denoted by falling dewpoints and
lessening moisture profiles near Ottawa, Canada should bring a
quick end to any snow showers areawide beyond 00Z this evening.
Curiously, the GLAMP denotes widespread IFR fog tonight beyond
06Z, though confidence in this being realized is low given dry
air advection, and some lingering northwest flow which should
limit any lingering visibility reductions, however, this will
need to be monitored in future TAF packages should conditions
trend towards this solution.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Taber/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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