558
FXUS61 KBTV 110517
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1217 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread light to moderate snowfall will continue through this
afternoon before becoming more confined to the mountains tonight
through Thursday night. Strong winds will develop by tomorrow
morning into Friday. The colder and active pattern will persist into
next week with a few additional chances for snow, though no big
systems are expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday...Steady light to moderate snow is
continuing across the region this afternoon, with a dry slot
beginning to develop across the High Peaks Wilderness that will
eventually move over the Champlain Valley. Overall, the system
remains to be on track in regards to snow amounts. The Winter
Weather Advisory for portions of Vermont will continue until 1
AM Thursday, and for portions of New York until 7 AM Thursday.
An additional 1 to 3 inches, particularly across southern
Vermont and the spine of the Greens are possible, with an
additional 2 to 4 inches of snow across portions of the St.
Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks. Fascinatingly,
dendrites have become significantly smaller as a low level jet
associated with the system continues to push north. Shearing
aloft has broken down some of the larger dendrites in smaller
dendrites which is resulting in slightly lower snow amounts,
about 0.5" lower in general, from the prior forecast, though
still generally on track impact wise. Additionally, while we
undergoing decent waa, wet-bulbing from the snow has kept
temperatures larger under 30. As the main warm frontal forcing
shifts to the north over the next few hours, and a dry slot
continues to materialize, more mixing of stronger gusts and
warmer air will filter in from the south. Air temperatures could
briefly touch or be just above freezing this afternoon,
particularly across southern Vermont and the Champlain Valley.
Although temperatures will briefly rise to at or above freezing,
it will be short lived and precipitation should mainly remain
snow with wet-bulbing aloft and thermal processes reducing the
threat of any flash freeze or icing this afternoon. Lingering
snow could pose some impacts to the evening commute tonight
across the region, and with snow continuing in New York into
tomorrow, the Thursday morning commute. As the low moves
overhead tonight and into tomorrow, the snow will become more
showery and confined to the upslope favored regions of the
northern Greens and northwestern Adirondacks. Temperatures will
remain on the mild side for the start of the overnight before a
cold front passes through around midnight with a quick dusting
possible in northern Vermont. Temperatures will quickly fall
behind the front back towards the single digits to low teens by
sunrise, and continue to remain cool under strong northwest caa.
Overnight lows likely will not occur until close to sunrise,
after the front passes through.
Thursday will be a cold and snow showery day as the low today
departs. Temperatures will generally be non-diurnal with
temperatures either holding or continuing to fall throughout the
daytime hours. Strong caa will begin early Thursday morning and will
be accompanied by gusts up to 30 to 40 MPH in the downslope regions
of the eastern Adirondacks and southeastern Greens. Elsewhere gusts
15 to 25 mph will be possible. Top of the mixed layer winds will be
around 40 to 45 knots, though upslope snow could play a role in
reducing how much of these stronger winds get mixed to the surface.
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday. As of right now, winds gusts remain
below advisory criteria. Snow showers will remain across the higher
terrain with an additional 2-4" across the western facing faces of
the Adirondacks and perhaps 3-6" in and around Jay Peak in Vermont.
The main period of upslope snow looks to be Thursday afternoon
across New York before shifting to northern Vermont by Thursday
night. Additional Winter Weather Advisories may be needed, so keep
an eye to the forecast by tomorrow morning. Thursday night lows will
dip into the single digits just above 0 to the low teens in the
wider valleys with continued strong caa. Coupled with the gusts,
wind chills will be in the negative single digits during the day to
negative teens overnight for most locations outside the Champlain
Valley, where wind chills will be near 0.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday...Snow showers for most areas will taper
off by Friday morning areawide with some chances of sunshine in
portions of the Champlain, St. Lawrence, and lower Connecticut
Valleys, though the higher terrain will likely remain under
continued scattered stratus with cooler temperatures aloft. Some
lingering snow showers with shallow moisture may persist through the
day Friday in the higher terrain in areas like Saranac Lake, NY and
Newport, VT. Temperatures on Friday will moderate back towards
seasonable averages with highs in the low to mid 20s in the valleys
and upper teens to low 20s in the higher terrain. Winds will also
begin to weaken Friday morning becoming more light and variable by
the afternoon with brief ridging creating overhead. Sunshine will
erode away with increasing clouds Friday night as a weak system
moves towards the region by Saturday with some chances of snow in
the extreme southern St. Lawrence Valley Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday...Broad scale longwave troughing and
northwest flow pattern will remain highly likely over the Northeast
heading into the weekend. This pattern will continue temperatures
below seasonal averages with quick moving systems favored to
progress through the region. Two systems are expected to move
through likely on Saturday and again Monday. However, supporting jet
energy and more favorable synoptic dynamics are out of place leading
to these systems to become weaker variety mainly supporting snow
showers for higher terrain and more intermittent, nuisance showers
for lower elevations. Some snow gains will likely occur over the
northern Greens and Adirondacks, but will be more limited that
recent precipitation events. Otherwise, high pressure continues to
be favored heading into Monday with potential for stronger
radiational cooling Monday night into Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, there
continues to be a large signal for pattern amplification with
southerly flow increasing and sharp height rises indicative of a
rapid warming trend. While temperatures will generally have highs in
the 20s and lows in the teens, outside of Sunday/Monday nights with
lows in the single digits, trends show warming potential well into
the 30s for highs and 20s for lows by Wednesday. Early implications
of this warming pattern are potential from some low elevation snow
melt and potential for mixed precipitation should a system pass
through. It`s definitely too far out for specifics, but we`ll be
watching this warming trend.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Active period of weather impacting the
aviation community over the next 6 to 18 hours. Surface cold
front entering the Champlain Valley at 06z, will produce a
quick period of snow with IFR visibilities likely, along with a
wind shift to the northwest. These conditions will impact
EFK/MPV between 07z and 10z, before exiting VT by 12z this
morning. As winds shift to the northwest localized gusts 20 to
30 knots can be anticipated at many taf sites today into this
evening. This upslope direction will continue to produce on and
off snow showers with intervals of IFR conditions likely at SLK
and MSS, with a mix of VFR/MVFR at our other sites. IFR vis in
1-3SM snow showers may linger until after 00z Friday at SLK,
given the flow and moisture. Temperatures currently at or
slightly above freezing at BTV will fall sharply this morning
below freezing, causing some potential for additional ice and
snow on the runaway. Conditions slowly improve to VFR at
RUT/PBG/MPV and BTV by mid to late morning.
Currently not receiving observations from EFK, so included amd
not sked.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for VTZ003-006-
016.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ029>031.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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