210
FXUS61 KBTV 011843
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
143 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Brisk conditions will continue into the overnight hours
with cold apparent temperatures below zero degrees for most
locations tonight. A few showers will continue mainly for upslope
areas over the next few days with a weak system moving through
this weekend bringing some light snow accumulations.
Unseasonably cool temperatures are expected to trend back
towards seasonal averages by the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 143 PM EST Thursday... Main forecast concern will be
continued cold conditions with frigid apparent temperatures
below zero for most locations during the overnight hours
tonight. Some spots in the Champlain Valley will feel like -10F
tonight while higher elevations will feel colder than -30F. Some
slight warming is favored with winds generally decreasing
tomorrow for lower elevations; gusts will keep frigid wind
chills ongoing lower than - 10F for higher elevations.
Otherwise, broad cyclonic flow aloft will support a few isolated
snow showers mainly along terrain. High temperatures tomorrow
will be cold again mainly in the teens with some low 20s for
southern Vermont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 143 PM EST Thursday...A shortwave trough will approach
Saturday/Saturday night bringing some snow/snow showers to northern
New York and Vermont. Current timing of the wave supports best
chances overnight into early Sunday. However, this wave is projected
to be quite weak and quick-moving across all models pointing to only
token amounts of snow, generally less than one inch being favored.
Temperatures will remain colder than average with highs likely only
in the teens and overnight lows in the single digits around zero.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 143 PM EST Thursday...
* Bitterly cold Sunday night - Monday morning with temperatures
and wind chills dropping back below zero.
* Becoming much milder on Tuesday, with a thaw likely beginning
by Wednesday.
Another trough and weaker variety cold front will move through
the region on Sunday. Have noted PoPs might be a little low
given favorable thermal profiles for snow production even with
meager moisture, especially with terrain influences/upslope
flow. So aside for the Upper Valley, I think at some intervals
during the day on Sunday we could see flurries and snow showers
just about anywhere. Otherwise, the main story will be another
round of cold weather, which will be modulated by any fresh snow
cover that would help temperatures fall even further overnight.
While chances are low that any locations meet Cold Weather
Advisory threshold, another round of temperatures well below
zero in most locations could be impactful, especially with any
light wind producing even lower feels-like temperatures. NBM
probabilities support lower temperatures than what the
deterministic guidance would indicate, so given potentially a
good radiational cooling scenario, would prepare for low
temperatures between about -10 and -19 as a reasonable "worst"
case scenario.
Prior to a well-anticipated thaw, we could see one more light
snowfall Monday night into Tuesday associated with thermal advection
and a weak wave of low pressure. With lack of strong forcing
mechanism indicated at this time, probabilities of just an inch
of new snow are roughly the same as precipitation chances,
which are fairly terrain influenced and in the 25-50% range.
Then there is good model agreement on a storm track shifting back to
our west while ridging establishes itself near Bermuda, leading to
milder air being drawn into the northeastern US pretty quickly. Snow
levels by Wednesday currently appear to be approach summit level,
peaking around 3000-3500 feet, as precipitation becomes likely
associated with a period of rich moisture and broad lift. There
could be a period of mixed precipitation in some areas at the start
Wednesday given the cold air mass being eroded, but the potential is
relatively low/insignificant compared to the recent ice storm.
Without a strong jet stream, it still doesn`t look like a
particularly noteworthy/impactful storm. However, in the context of
the persistent cold, we will obviously thaw out a bit. As we are in
January, despite the pattern change it looks like there will be
enough cold air around such that behind the midweek rain,
temperatures in the higher terrain should still support chances for
snow while valleys continue to have some freeze/thaw cycles.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions prevail with
trend towards all VFR conditions over the next three to six hours
can be expected. Winds through 00Z will continue to be west to
northwest at 5-12 knots with gusts to around 20 knots and gradually
subsiding. Thereafter, a subtle push northward of lake effect snow
will support an interval of likely snow/IFR conditions at SLK
overnight, although confidence in the exact time period is low.
Elsewhere, if ceilings redevelop overnight or in the morning, they
would tend to be near 2500 to 3000 feet. Probabilistic data has
trended a little more bullish on MVFR conditions at BTV,
particularly between 10Z-14Z, but still only peaking around 50%
chance for a given hour. Surface winds will diminish further after
00Z to be mainly 5 knots or less, then resume a west to northwest
direction at about 6 to 10 knots, gradually increasing between 14Z
and 18Z.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Isolated SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. Isolated SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: MVFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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