851
FXUS61 KBTV 201112
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
712 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 257 AM EDT Monday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 257 AM EDT Monday...
1. Dry through today then showers and some thunderstorms
Tuesday into Wednesday.
2. Near normal temperatures expected for the second half of the
week into the weekend. No significant weather anticipated at
this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 257 AM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The dry and seasonable stretch continues through
tonight. Highs will be in the 70s to low 80s and lows will be
in the 50s and low 60s. An occluding low will track well to the
north Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing several rounds of
showers. The showers look to begin during the day Tuesday and
continue into Wednesday afternoon. Right now, the severe threat
is relatively low. There does not look to be a well-defined
boundary, instead several rounds of showers with plenty of
clouds look to move through. There is very little time for solar
heating and instability to form, and the airmass will be
relatively cool to start with. With the low tracking well to the
north, the best synoptic forcing will be well to the north,
though there will be adequate wind shear. Overall, the region is
in an SPC marginal risk which seems representative. While an
isolated strong to severe storm is possible, that looks to be
the extent of it. The system does not look to provide much of a
flooding threat either. GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined ensemble
probabilities of receiving more than an inch of rain are between
10-30 percent. While there will be areas of convective
enhancement, the storms will be quick-moving and there will be
gaps between the showers. PWATs should rise into the 1.5-1.75
inch range but with the expected setup, that should not pose too
much of a problem. While limited wildfire smoke may return for
Tuesday, its concentration will be significantly less than on
Saturday and it will likely not have much of an effect on the
convection.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Thursday night through Sunday will feature
quieter weather as we close out the week. Upper level trough
will pull away from the region and then surface high pressure
will ridge over our region Thursday night. A low pressure system
passes well to our north Friday into Friday night, our region
should not have any precipitation associated with this system.
The weekend looks mainly dry with near normal temperatures. Next
chance for precipitation will be Sunday night into Monday night
as a frontal system and upper level trough crosses the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR conditions and light winds are
expected to prevail through the forecast period. Mainly clear
skies are also expected.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
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