463
FXUS61 KBTV 021041
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
641 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 237 AM EDT Thursday...
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 237 AM EDT Thursday...
1. A significant heat wave will continue across much of the
Northeast with unusually hot and humid conditions causing a
sharp increase in the risk for heat related illnesses.
2. The chances for thunderstorms and showers will continue into
this weekend with potential for a few strong to severe storms.
3. Warm weather will linger into next week, along with daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 237 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The oppressive dome of heat and high pressure
will continue to be the primary influence on our weather into
this weekend. 925mb in the mid/upper 20s (C) will continue to
point to widespread high temperatures in the 90s while dew
points remain in the upper 60s and low/mid 70s. This will push
heat indices into the upper 90s to around 106. The combination
of heat and humidity remains dangerous for most of the
population, but especially for those without adequate cooling or
to those working outdoors. Nocturnal temperatures will not
provide much relief through Friday as we swelter under the
northern periphery of large high pressure centered over the Mid
Atlantic states and portions of the Ohio River Valley.
Temperatures begin to trend cooler Friday, but heat is
cumulative and impacts may linger despite relatively cooler
conditions as heat index values generally range in the 90s. The
first true break in heat will be on Independence Day as drier
air begins to move into the region begin a front sweeping out of
Canada. Widespread dew points in the 50s with temperatures in
the upper 70s to mid 80s Sunday will feel quite pleasant after
this bout of excessive heat.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Thunderstorm and shower chances will continue
through Saturday. With the region on the northern periphery of
the ridge, we`ve been susceptible to troughs roller along this
northern extension. Heat and humidity have been fueling bouts of
stronger thunderstorms. After some morning showers and isolated
thunderstorms, a subtle shift in the ridge axis may shunt these
waves slightly farther north. the result will be for southern
Vermont/Adirondacks to be potentially clearer of convection
today. Still, isolated showers/thunderstorms cannot be
completely ruled out of these locations, but focus for scattered
convection will shift northward towards the Canadian border this
afternoon and evening. A caveat would be if outflow/cold-pool
interactions develop into a line, then some more organized
elements could occur just about anywhere. While some supporting
dynamics will be less than the last couple of days (EML layer
departing/modifying) we remain under a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms. This is mostly rooted in our unusually high CAPE
environment coupled with the conditional threat of areas of
forcing moving through the region. Model placement of the CAPE
gradient that would impact our area remains west of the St
Lawrence Valley and will be the likely source for convective
initiation again this afternoon.
For Friday, the axis of highest instability is favored to shift
southward but remain in the vicinity of the St Lawrence Valley
to far southern Vermont; SPC continues a marginal risk for
severe storms along and south of this line with more general
convection northward. This tracks well given the expected
decreasing temperatures/dewpoints. By Saturday, a drier variety
front is expected to drop south out of Canada and through the
region. Forcing increases, but PWATs drop sharply. Still, some
isolated to scattered storms will be possible given lower level
forcing. The area of storm chances may shift south quickly by
the early afternoon. Some CAMs are pointing to lower chances of
showers Saturday while global and blended guidance leans to
keeping chances into the afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Heading into next week, warm weather looks to
linger, although temperatures and heat indices will not be as
warm as the week above. Deterministic model guidance diverges
sharply for next week, increasing uncertainty for the long range
forecast. At this time, high temperatures are most likely to
range in the 80s and lower 90s with chances for showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon through midweek. Overnight lows
look to remain on the warmer side, generally in the 60s, which
may lead to accumulating heat impacts. Although it looks like it
won`t be quite as hot as earlier in the week, it is important
to remember to drink water and take frequent breaks if working
outside, especially with such an extended period of warmer
weather.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions VFR conditions are expected
to prevail throughout most of the forecast period. Additional
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible
throughout the forecast period, with little confidence in areal
coverage and intensity. Winds will become more south to
southwesterly throughout the day, trending light and variable
overnight. Towards the very end of the forecast period some
guidance suggests the potential for fog development, but given
the low confidence, future forecasts will have to take a closer
look.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. Isolated SHRA, Isolated TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Isolated SHRA.
Independence Day: VFR. Scattered SHRA, Scattered TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Extreme heat and humidity will affect the region for the latter
half of the week, which could lead to some daily records. Below
are the current daily high and low temperature records in
jeopardy at our area climate sites.
Record High Temperatures:
July 2:
KBTV: 97/2018
KMPV: 90/2018
KMSS: 94/2018
July 3:
KMPV: 91/2002
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
July 2:
KPBG: 77/2002
KSLK: 68/2002
July 3:
KBTV: 76/1911
KPBG: 73/2002
July 4:
KPBG: 71/1973
KSLK: 67/1952
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-
016>020.
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT Friday for VTZ001-002-005-
009-011-021.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for NYZ026-027-029>031-034-
087.
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT Friday for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...Danzig/NWS BTV
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