060
FXUS61 KBTV 260525
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
125 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 223 PM EDT Monday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast this
afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 223 PM EDT Monday...
1. After widespread rain this morning, warmer and drier
conditions are expected through Tuesday. Tuesday will also be
breezy, with gusts of 25 to 40 mph possible across the St. Lawrence
Valley and northern Adirondacks.
2. Seasonable temperatures and a few chances for showers are
expected for the middle of the week.
3. Seasonably cool with unsettled weather, primarily into the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 223 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Drier air continues to move into the region behind the
exiting boundary from this morning, ushering in warmer and drier
conditions, with some breaks in the clouds expected this afternoon.
As high pressure continues to nose into the region tonight, some fog
development will be possible given the recent rainfall, particularly
across eastern Vermont where winds look to remain lighter.
Warm and dry conditions are expected to persist through the day
tomorrow as high pressure centered to our south continues to nose
into the region. High temperatures tomorrow look to climb into the
upper 70s and lower 80s by tomorrow afternoon. In addition to the
warm temperatures, breezy conditions look to develop as a strong low
level jet moves into the region tomorrow afternoon and evening ahead
of a weak boundary, with forecast soundings showing efficient
mixing. The strongest winds will be focused in the St. Lawrence
Valley and northern Adirondacks, where the gusts of 30 to 40 mph
will be possible.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Upper level low pressure centered over the Canadian
Maritimes will continue to keep the region under northwesterly flow
for the middle of the week. Occasional chances for showers will be
possible as several shortwaves rotate about the upper low, but exact
confidence in timing, intensity, and placement is too difficult to
pinpoint at this time. Any showers that to develop should remain
fairly isolated to scattered, with a complete washout not expected
for either Wednesday or Thursday. Seasonable temperatures are
expected Wednesday afternoon, with highs in the 70s to near 80. A
cooling trend looks to begin as we head later in the week, with high
temperatures in the 60s for Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 3: No significant changes in regards to the overall
synoptic pattern heading into the latter portion of this week and
the weekend. The system mid week will become blocked across the
northern Canadian Maritimes and north Atlantic leading to continued
troughing for our region into the weekend. Global ensembles support
persistent upper level troughing extending all the way from
Greenland as an upper low cyclonically rotates near Newfoundland
keeping temperatures seasonably cool with cloudy skies for much of
the late week and weekend. Cyclonic flow will lead to several
shortwave passages into the weekend, with the most amplified of
which likely Friday night into Saturday. 500mb height anomalies will
be overhead Friday into Saturday with cool northerly flow supporting
a closed low passage to start the weekend. Notably, this closed low
originates well north of the Hudson Bay with temperatures resembling
that of early to mid spring or mid to late fall, rather than the end
of May/early June. Highs Friday and Saturday will be about 10 to 15
degrees below normal with values in the low to mid 60s, and lows in
the low 40s. Overnight lows may be slightly warmer across the St.
Lawrence and Champlain Valleys due to water temperatures helping to
moderate air temperatures. These lower temperatures will be
accompanied by scattered to widespread shower and rain activity
Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. The GFS denotes the
540 thickness line will be over the Adirondacks which is uncommon,
but not unheard of for this time of year. As such, some showers may
have some isolated small hail or graupel with mid to upper level
cooling and stagnant sfc temperatures, leading to weak instability
as the low moves overhead, mainly if showers form during the
afternoon. Friday night into Saturday unfortunately looks to be raw
with the cooling temperatures, rain, and some breezy conditions to
10 to 15 mph winds. Beyond Saturday morning, troughing looks to
remain in place towards next week with daily shower chances,
particularly across Northeast Vermont which will be closer to the
axis of the troughing. Perhaps some drying and clearer skies will be
possible in the St. Lawrence Valley Sunday, as temperatures areawide
attempt to trend back to normal for the start of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Very challenging first 6 hours
associated with potential for areas of patchy fog and localized
VLIFR conditions. Latest GOES-19 fog product shows development
of valley fog across most of central/eastern VT, with some high
clouds impacting southern taf sites. The challenge is high
clouds along with boundary layer winds increasing at 3-6 knots
after 08z, which could limit fog development. Highest
probability of IFR/LIFR is MPV with intervals of IFR at SLK/RUT
and 20-30% chance of IFR at EFK/BTV. Have utilized tempo`s
groups at most sites to indicate this thinking. Any fog/mist
will lift by 12z as boundary layer winds continue to increase at
5 to 10 knots. Winds increase 10 to 20 knots with localized
gusts up to 20 to 30 knots expected by late morning into the
afternoon hours today as VFR conditions prevail.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Kremer
AVIATION...Taber
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