015
FXUS61 KBTV 080613
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
213 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 212 AM EDT Wednesday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 212 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. Tranquil weather will continue across the region today, with
showers and some thunderstorms likely Thursday afternoon and evening
as a cold front moves through the region.

2. Seasonably warm and dry heading into the weekend. Shower
chances return to start next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 212 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1:  Other than some overnight fog in some of the more
favored locations, tranquil weather is expected to prevail across
the region today. High temperatures will climb into the 80s areawide
this afternoon, with plenty of sunshine expected throughout the day.


The period of active weather continues to be Thursday afternoon and
evening as showers and thunderstorms develop across the region as a
cold front moves through the region. SPC has placed the northern
portion of the region in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, meaning
isolated severe storms are possible. The most favorable conditions
for any thunderstorm develop look to be along the International
Border, where more favorable instability and shear are expected.
Some of the latest CAM guidance shows about 1000 to 1500 J/kg of
MUCAPE across the region. Model soundings show the potential for
some heavy rainfall with any storms that do develop, with warm cloud
depths over 10kft and favorable CAPE profiles, however it looks to
be a fairly narrow band of anomalously deep moisture and things
should be moving enough to limit impacts. The cold front looks to
shift southward overnight Thursday into Friday, with drier
conditions expected across the region by the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Behind a cold front on Friday, drier air aloft will
advect from the northwest lending to a comfortable, seasonably warm
weekend. Saturday will be the pick of the weekend with cooler
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and lower dewpoints in the
low 50s. A brisk north wind to around 10-20 MPH will bring a slight
bite to the air Saturday afternoon, especially in the Champlain
Valley. By Sunday, temperatures start to rebound back to the mid to
upper 80s, with a positively tilted long wave trough digging into
the Mid-Atlantic. A cutoff low will dive south from the Ohio Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday as ridging slides south from Canada.
Dry air in the mid to upper levels should shunt much of the
precipitation to our south, but some shower activity in southern
Vermont along the northern periphery of the system, due to advective
southerly flow, cannot be ruled out. Models then become spread on a
system heading into next week. A weak cold front is expected to
slide south early next week as surface high pressure somewhat breaks
down over southern New England. Model timing remains large with the
GFS ensembles depicting a more delayed frontal passage closer to
Tuesday into Wednesday due to a more persistent ridge and dry air
keeping the front at bay. The Euro ensembles are a bit faster with a
Monday into Tuesday frontal passage with a faster ridge departure.
Depending on the timing of the front, instability for stronger
storms could be possible as the front will coincide with a
strengthening jet streak and associated LLJ, in addition to decent
frontogenesis in the low to mid levels. Regardless of timing, high
temperatures and dewpoints look unlikely early next week as the
front will help to reduce any threat of extreme heat or humidity.
Furthermore, precipitation chances Monday through Wednesday are
trending up along the International Border, though the southward
extent of any shower activity as the front sags south, remains
uncertain with dry air in place. Notably cooler and drier air looks
to follow behind the front into mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Fog has begun to develop in the Connecticut
River due to the rainfall we saw yesterday. RUT has already gone to
IFR with fog around the terminal, however, due to southeast flow,
expectations are that the terminal should bounce between IFR and
MVFR, and perhaps up to VFR at times through 10Z, with some slow
improvements back to prevailing VFR by 13Z based on NAM3 soundings.
MPV may also see fog, though later between 08-11Z due to already
achieving their crossover temperature. There are some low stratus
clouds moving across the Adirondacks that may contribute to limited
fog, however, GOES 19 satellite already depicts some fog moving
north up the White River Valley. The aforementioned low stratus
should hold off any fog at SLK for a few hours, but brief nearby
BCFG with MVFR vsbys cannot be ruled out near sunrise as these
clouds drift east and thin. Elsewhere, clear skies will persist
though the rest of tonight and into the daylight hours today with
some fair weather cumulus to 4000- 6000ft agl. Light, under 10 knot,
winds will turn westerly during the day today then become southerly
after sunset. A lake breeze will be possible at BTV/PBG this
afternoon as well.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig