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FXUS61 KBTV 221106
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
706 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 527 AM EDT Wednesday...
Have sent out an early morning update to adjust probability of
precipitation and weather over the next few hours based on high
resolution models that are performing well in comparison with
the radar imagery and automated reports across the region.
Today, we`re thinking about 15-25% chance of precip in the St.
Lawrence Valley, 50-80% chance of precip on the northern and
western slopes of the Adirondacks and northern Greens, 5-30%
chance of precip in the southern Champlain and Connecticut River
valleys, and 30-50% elsewhere. Will be a mix of showers and
embedded thunderstorms, drying out by the end of the day.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. Lingering showers are expected today with isolated
thunderstorms possible as a cold front moves through, then the
weather pattern becomes drier for the latter half of the week.
2. Quiet weather and increasing temperatures are expected this
upcoming weekend before another system bring showers and
thunderstorms to the region early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A warm front is crossing northern New York and Vermont
early this morning, bringing a few additional showers to the area.
So far about 0.50-1.00 inches of rainfall has fallen in a swath from
the St. Lawrence River to the northern Adirondacks and northern Lake
Champlain. A cold front is expected to cross the region this
morning, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms. Probability
of precipitation in a given location is around 50-80% in the western
Adirondacks, St. Lawrence Valley, and far northern Vermont.
Probability of precipitation is lowest in the souther Champlain and
Connecticut River valleys, around 5-30%. Additional anticipated
rainfall amounts range around 0.10-0.30 inches through the end of
today, though higher precip amounts and gusty winds could occur in
any thunderstorms. Outside of storms, southwesterly winds are also
anticipated throughout the day today with gusts as high as 20-30
knots likely. The cold front should keep temperatures from reaching
too high today, particularly in northern New York, where highs will
be in the 60s west of the Champlain Valley. In the Champlain Valley
and remainder of Vermont, temperatures are forecast in the mid and
upper 70s, warmest in the Connecticut River Valley where the cold
front will visit last. Depending on the speed of the cold front,
temperatures could end up being a degree or two warmer or colder.
Wednesday night through Friday night will be dry with high pressure
in control. Humidity levels will be comfortable with highs in the
70s to lower 80s Thursday and upper 70s to mid 80s Friday. Lows will
fall into the 40s and 50s each night, with radiational fog potential
in the typical valley locations.
KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure starts to shift to the east by the second
half of the weekend, leading to increasing S/SW flow. The result
will be warming temperatures, with highs to be mainly in the
mid/upper 80s both Saturday and Sunday. Humidity doesn`t look too
bad as dewpoints are expected to remain the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Our next chance of precipitation arrives late Sunday into Monday and
likely persists into mid week as upper troughiness sets up across
eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS. Shortwaves rotating
around the upper trough will bring periods of showers and
thunderstorms. These sorts of features are typically difficult to
nail down in timing and strength this far out, and indeed, model
solutions differ quite a bit from Sunday night onward. Have stayed
with the NBM/WPC forecast for now given the uncertainty, which
results in chances of showers/thunderstorms each day. Temperatures
look to remain seasonable through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Variable conditions expected through at least
the first 6-8 hours of the TAF period with isolated to scattered
showers to push eastward ahead of a weak frontal boundary.
Ceilings generally to remain VFR/MVFR, though brief periods of
IFR will be possible at KSLK early in the period. Visibility to
remain AOA 6SM in showers. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out, but uncertainty in timing and coverage precludes mention in
the TAFs at this time. Visibility 2-4SM possible in any
thunderstorms. Precipitation threat wanes from west to east
after 18z, with all terminals VFR by 21z, and skies clearing
overnight. S/SW winds 5-10 kt becoming gusty 17-22 kt by 14z and
turning more toward the W/SW after the frontal passage. Gusts
subside after 02z Thu, with sustained winds to gradually lessen
thereafter. There are some indications that patchy fog could
develop, but anticipate enough wind to keep it from becoming
widespread.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Storm/Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
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