348
FXUS61 KBTV 191816
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
216 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Localized gusty southerly winds will continue into the
evening hours, along with mild temperatures. Rain will arrive toward
midnight across northern New York and spread into most of Vermont by
sunrise on Monday. Another period of gusty southeast downslope winds
along the Western Slopes are likely on Monday morning. Localized
gusts 35 to 50 mph will be possible, but much lighter elsewhere. A
cool and unsettled pattern will prevail most of this upcoming work
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 209 PM EDT Sunday...This aftn gusty southerly winds have
developed with BTV gusting to 40 mph, Chazy 36 mph, and Edwards to
34 mph, while min rh`s are near 30% over many sites in northern NY
and in the 30 to 40% range in central/northern VT. These
critical fire weather conditions will persist for several more
hours into the early evening hours, before rh`s improve toward 8
PM. In addition, still expecting a period of very gusty winds
from 5 PM to 10 PM from Malone to Altona over northern NY
associated with core of strongest 925mb winds of 50 to 55 knots
and favorable mixing. No changes to the Red Flag Warning or Wind
Advisories have been made with this forecast package.
GOES-19 water vapor shows deepening full latitude mid/upper lvl trof
acrs the central Great Lake into the central Appalachian Mtns,
while potent s/w energy over central KY/TN is enhancing some
convective activity. This energy wl phase with northern stream
energy just north of the Great Lakes tonight to produce a negatively
tilted mid/upper lvl trof acrs the Mid Atlantic/New England area on
Monday. As phasing occurs elongated sfc low pres wl be consolidating
and deepening over eastern NY and lifting into southern Canada by
late aftn. The s/w interaction, how quickly sfc low pres deepens and
track, along with precip falling all play an important role in
downslope wind potential on Monday. Latest guidance has delayed
development of sfc low pres and this results in less pres gradient
over our cwa and slightly weaker 925mb to 850mb wind fields. In
addition, soundings are rather messy with regards to mixing due to
potential rainfall occurring during the core of the strongest winds.
Given the mixed signals for a downsloping wind event, I made no
changes to crnt wind advisory for the Western Slopes late tonight
into Monday, where localized gusts up to 50 mph wl be possible.
Elsewhere, much lighter winds are expected.
A band of moderate to heavy rain is expected to lift from south to
north acrs our cwa on Monday associated with strong synoptic scale
ascent from a developing negatively tilted trof, favorable band of
fgen forcing, and multiple layer jet structure helping enhance deep
layer moisture advection. However, given llvl jet orientation and
structure, I would anticipate some downslope shadowing of the qpf
fields acrs the western slopes and parts of the NEK of VT. Still
noting a weak sliver of instability, so have continued to mention
slight chc for thunder and localized heavy rainfall possible.
Rainfall totals btwn 0.50 and 1.0 inch with localized higher amounts
over the eastern Dacks and portions of the southern/central Greens.
Highs 58 to 66 on Monday, with warmest values in the CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 209 PM EDT Sunday...Negatively tilted and closed mid/upper lvl
circulation and associated sfc low pres quickly track northeast of
our cwa by Monday night. Precip wl become mostly trrn focused in the
favorable westerly upslope areas, with downslope drying occurring in
other areas. Have utilized pop adjust climo tool to focus higher
pops over the northern Dacks into the mtns of northern/central VT.
Additional qpf of 0.15 to 0.30 inches wl be possible with lows in
the upper 30s to mid upper 40s. Tues weak mid/upper lvl ridge tries
to build in between our two systems with a mostly dry day
anticipated. Highs wl warm back into the mid 50s to lower 60s with
some breezy westerly winds. A progressive mid/upper lvl pattern
continues with our next system arriving on Tues night with
increasing threat for showers from west to east. Deep closed
mid/upper lvl trof wl be acrs the central Great Lakes with multiple
embedded trofs/short waves rotating acrs our cwa. This wl keep our
cwa unsettled with cooler air eventually filtering into our region
by mid to late week.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 203 PM EDT Sunday...A large occluding upper low will continue
to nudge into the region from the Great Lakes Wednesday with a
strong stream of energy connected into the Atlantic enhancing
moisture advection. As the system occludes, a vort max will
swing eastward downstream leading to convergence and
cyclogenesis along the Connecticut River Valley spurring the
development of a triple point low. Resurgence of moisture and
precipitation looks increasingly favorable across eastern
Vermont and especially the Northeast Kingdom Wednesday night
into Thursday. However, trends have been to push the main axis
of moisture advection into New Hampshire which may limit the
heavier rainfall rates for Vermont. As this developing low
departs off to the northeast on Thursday, cyclonic flow from
occluding upper low will remain with cyclonic flow and continued
precipitation chances through the end of the week. Scattered
showers, mainly confined to northern New York and the higher
terrain will be the main precipitation chances through the end
of the week. Locations closer to Lake Ontario in St. Lawrence
County could be under the influence of Lake effect rain and
clouds Thursday and Thursday afternoon with southwesterly flow.
The 540dam thickness line behind the upper low should be able to
swing southward over northern New York with the strong occlusion
that the system will undergo. 925mb temperatures show near to sub
freezing values which would indicate possible snow across the
mountain summits with cyclonic flow lingering into Thursday/Friday.
Model soundings suggest the freezing level could be as low as 1500
ft, however, with surface temperatures not able to cool off as
efficiently, snow levels will likely reside at 2500 ft or higher.
Which is to say, precipitation in the form of wet snow atop mountain
summits is increasingly favorable by the end of the week.
All in all, beneficial rain up to half an inch, limited to the
progressive nature of the systems, will help to stabilize many
drought stricken areas. Although, it does not look to be enough to
lead to any drought improvement. Temperatures will be fairly close
to climatological norms in the 50s during the day with a range of
lows in the upper 20s to lower 40s throughout the extended.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing
through the next 12 hours. The main terminal impacts this afternoon
and evening will be continued strong gusty winds from the southeast
associated with an approaching low pressure system. Winds 10 to 15
knots with gusts as high as 30 to 35 knots will continue well into
the afternoon and evening at all sites. Winds will be highest across
SLK/PBG/BTV this afternoon and evening, and shift eastwards with the
highest winds at BTV/MPV/EFK/RUT for tomorrow morning and early
afternoon. Observations have shown periods of brief calm winds
between gusts which may lead to moderate turbulence near the
surface. This is confirmed by pilot PIREP reports. Furthermore, as
the afternoon progresses a strong low-level jet with winds near 50
to 60 knots at 2000ft agl will push further into the region leading
to widespread LLWS at all sites overnight. LLWS will weaken as
precipitation arrives tomorrow. Precipitation will arrive from
southwest to northeast as an initial band by 09Z at RUT/SLK/MSS, and
by 14Z at EFK. Confidence is moderate for rainfall rates to be heavy
enough to lead to prevailing 4SM MVFR visibilities as the band moves
across the region. Behind the band, more scattered and lighter
showers will persist through the remainder of the TAF period.
Ceilings will quickly lower as the rain band pushes through with
1500-2500ft agl cigs likely at all terminals, with moderate
confidence in lower ceilings to 900-1300ft agl at SLK/MPV by early
afternoon tomorrow.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning continues through this evening for portions
of northern New York and most of central/northern VT for gusty
winds and low humidities. Observations indicate humidities have
dropped between 28% and 35% over northern NY and in the 30 to
40% range across VT, while winds have been gusty at 15 to 35
mph. These conditions will continue for the next several hours,
before humidities will start increasing after sunset. Winds
will remain gusty through most of the evening hours, especially
in favorable downslope areas of the northern Dacks and south to
north valleys, like the Champlain Valley. Rain showers will
develop over northern New York around midnight and spread into
most of Vermont by sunrise on Monday. A widespread wetting
rainfall is expected by sunset Monday across the entire area.
For more information about the current fire danger rating, any burn
restrictions, and wildfire prevention and education, please visit
your state forestry or environmental protection website. Remember, a
debris burn ban is in effect for all of Vermont which means no
open burning of debris is allowed.
&&
.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory will be remain in effect tonight for
south winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots possible.
Wave will be building 2 to 4 feet with higher swells possible in
the open waters.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for VTZ030>032.
Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for VTZ016>018.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ202.
Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for NYZ027-028-030-031.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
FIRE WEATHER...BTV
MARINE...BTV
EQUIPMENT...BTV
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