753
FXUS61 KBTV 150551
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
151 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 150 AM EDT Wednesday...
Smoke has been added to parts of northern New York and Vermont
Wednesday evening into Thursday ahead of a cold front.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 150 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. Storms angling south could produce severe weather for a few
more hours.
2. Smoky conditions through Thursday until a reinforcing
frontal boundary brings rain and pushes it south.
3. Seasonable temperatures and showers likely this weekend with
possible thunderstorms, then another round of showers and potential
storms early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 150 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warning operations is underway. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are favoring southern area, and have leveled off some
in intensity compared to the significant storm that cross Russell,
DeKalb, and Ogdensburg in New York. After 4 AM, most convection
should be well away from the region. Until then, we continue to
monitor for damaging winds and hail up to 1". A few showers may
rotate around an upper trough in northern Vermont, but no thunder
expected.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Wildfire smoke will move back into the region late
Wednesday afternoon and overnight, spreading across Vermont and
northern New York into Thursday. Poor air quality will be possible,
but temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s for the most
part. With diurnal heating, some showers and storms will develop
along the cold front shifting south, but it will not have nearly as
much instability as this evening`s activity. Cooler conditions ensue.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Longwave troughing will cross the region this weekend as
two surface low pressures, one in the Great Lakes and one along the
mid-Atlantic coast, will interact while tracking through the
Northeast. Global deterministic models are fairly aligned in this
idea at the moment, providing increased confidence of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. The
probability of an inch of rainfall within 24 hours from this system
is around 5-20%. More likely 24 hour amounts will fall somewhere
between 0.33 and 0.66 inches. Depending on the storm track and
timing of any associated frontal passages, the threat of strong to
severe storms will be watched, but the threat should remain on the
lower side due to a cooler and less humid airmass. Temperatures will
remain around seasonal normals in the mid 70s to lower 80s both
Saturday and Sunday with nighttime lows in the upper 40s to lower
60s. Next week should start briefly dry on Monday with temperatures
increasing into the upper 70s and 80s, then another trough and
northern stream low pressure swing through to increase chance of
precipitation again on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Scattered storms will move through the region
during the next few hours, bringing localized IFR visibility and
frequent lightning. There will also be some gusty erratic winds.
This is expected at BTV and PBG between 6-7Z and RUT before 9Z.
These storms exit by around daybreak. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through tonight. Winds will increase into the 15-25 KT range
out of the northwest today, before generally going light and
variable tonight. A few pockets of LLWS will exist for the rest of
the night, before going away this morning.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Haynes
AVIATION...Myskowski
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