204
FXUS61 KBTV 230528
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
128 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 222 PM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes to the current forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 222 PM EDT Sunday...
1. A mix of snow and rain will lighten into the early evening
with a change to freezing drizzle tonight into Monday morning,
with potential impacts to the Monday morning commute.
2. Afternoon snow showers expected on Monday will trend towards
more seasonally cool and dry conditions for Tuesday and
Wednesday.
3. Several weather disturbances are projected to traverse
Vermont and northern New York for the rest of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 222 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A clipper system is moving overhead this afternoon with
temperatures, outside of northeastern Vermont, rising above freezing
with all precipitation types present areawide. Snow will linger
across the Northeast Kingdom into this evening as colder air will be
harder to scour out. However, across the rest of Vermont, and
northern New York, a mix of sleet and rain is widespread, but should
lighten into this evening as the center of the low drifts eastward.
A cold front associated with the low is expected to become quasi-
stationary this evening into tonight across southern Vermont leading
to pooling and blocked deep low level moisture areawide. Mid to
upper level moisture will begin to dry out by this evening as dry
cooler air entrains with upper level northerly flow. This drying
will cause the DGZ to become unsaturated, and with lingering low
level blocked moisture, a forecast of drizzle and freezing drizzle
remains on track. Temperatures will begin to fall back to and below
freezing by this evening. Freezing drizzle will be patchy than
widespread as light northwest surface flow should be enough to
create scattered shallow dry pockets in the wider valleys of the
region, though cannot be ruled out entirely. Sheltered locations and
locations above 1000ft, have a higher potential for freezing drizzle
and reduced visibilities as the drizzle may be suspended in fog
rather than acting like falling rain which could cause some slippery
conditions on untreated surfaces. With the low level moisture,
elevations above 2000ft will likely experience some rime ice
development tonight. We are expecting a light glaze up to 0.05
inches of ice accumulation through tomorrow morning. It is likely
that travel conditions may be hazardous for the Monday morning
commute.
KEY MESSAGE 2: While the bulk of the winter precipitation will
taper off Monday morning, an inverted trough extending northeast
from the departing surface low on Monday will drive some wrap
around scattered snow showers Monday afternoon. These showers
will be aided by lingering low level moisture in a DGZ between
3-6kft and relatively steep lapse rates as the mid to upper
levels continue to dry. These showers wont have a lot of
instability as an inversion around 6000ft will limit the
retention time of any snowflakes. Furthermore, surface
temperatures will warm to the mid 30s, which would support more
graupel like showers than full snow showers. Snow showers will
be more likely across the Northeast Kingdom which will be closer
to the center of the departing low and within colder
temperatures and a bit detached from the best mid to upper level
dry air. Overall, these showers look to be more popcorn-esque
and transient which will only support light accumulations
between a dusting to an inch, locally two inches, mainly across
the northern Greens and Northeast Kingdom.
Showers will quickly taper off by Monday evening as temperatures
sink into the teens to near 20 degrees. Deep layer ridging is
expected to build into the region as an area of high pressure
lifts north from the Ohio Valley. Drier conditions with at or
just below average temperatures will persist into mid week.
However, we will still be under the influence of a synoptic
scale longwave trough to our northwest which will keep
temperatures seasonably cool with some light rain/snow shower
chances by Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A warm front will advance ahead of a very weak
1013mb surface low quickly ejecting northeast. Early morning
snow will transition to elevation dependent rain or snow as snow
levels rise to about 1500-2000 ft agl. The progress of this
system will impact conditions on Thursday into Friday with the
next system. Yesterday, guidance was fairly 50-50 split on the
timing and location of the track, but the trend has been a low
track north of the international border. This will likely result
in warmer conditions with more widespread rain across Vermont
and northern New York. There could be some snow showers on the
backside, but the air mass coming in with the cold will also be
dry as a 1040+ mb surface high builds over Canada and descends
into the Northern Plains of the USA. Again, there is some spread
on how the rest of the weekend plays out. Some guidance
continues to spit out some snow showers with an upper trough
late Saturday into Sunday, but it`s hard to envision with so
much dry air and such a weak surface reflection. We`ll see how
it goes, but cool weather will be likely over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Surface low pressure is east of our TAF
sites this evening with breezy north to northwest winds and
lowering ceilings in terrain favored areas. This upslope flow,
combined with blocked flow will continue to produce IFR/LIFR
ceilings at RUT and BTV thru 12z Monday with areas of freezing
drizzle possible throughout the night. IFR CIGS are likely at
MPV and EFK associated with upslope flow and lowering inversion
height, while mostly MVFR cigs are expected at PBG and SLK with
some drier air on northerly flow. Winds gusts up to 20 knots
through midnight, before decreasing. CIGS slowly improve to a
mixture of MVFR at RUT/BTV/SLK/MPV and EFK with VFR at PBG/MSS
by 16z Monday. Scattered snow showers are possible between
16z-22z, which could produce brief MVFR/IFR vis in the heavier
activity.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN, Chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA,
Chance SN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ003-
004-006>008-010-017>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ027-
030-031-034.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Danzig
AVIATION...Taber/Verasamy
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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