731
FXUS61 KBTV 241103
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
703 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 231 AM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes with this forecast package.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 231 AM EDT Sunday...
1. Periods of rain will make for a wet rest of the holiday
weekend. Cool temperatures today will give way to warmer conditions
on Memorial Day.
2. Warmer weather expected for mid week, with another chance of
showers on Wednesday.
3. Below normal temperatures and some showers are expected at
times late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 231 AM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Hope everyone was able to get outdoors and enjoy the
beautiful weather on Saturday as today will be drastically
different. Weak low pressure centered over the Great Lakes will
slowly push eastward through the day, eventually passing overhead or
just to our south tonight into early Monday. A swath of light to
occasionally moderate rain associated with warm air advection ahead
of the low is currently spreading over our region early this
morning, and it will continue to trek eastward through the morning
hours. Hourly rainfall amounts have generally been just a few
hundredths at most, but do note some locations near Lake Ontario
have picked up closer to 0.20 inch in locally heavier showers.
Expect this trend will continue as this precipitation moves through
northern NY and VT: steady light rain occasionally picking up to
become a little heavier at times. The rain and abundant cloud cover
will also serve to keep temperatures much cooler than yesterday. The
latest surface observations show most places are in the mid 40s to
mid 50s at this early hour, and don`t expect this will change all
that much through the day, with just a few degrees of warming
expected. Winds will be blustery as well; a 45kt S/SE 850mb jet will
lift across the area, and while mixing won`t be optimal due to the
steady rain and an inversion around 3000-4000 ft, still anticipate
gusts of 20 to 30 mph will be possible across much of the area.
Favored northern/western slopes of the northern Adirondacks and
Green Mountains could see gusts around 40 mph at times due to
downsloping, but expect these will be fairly localized.
The main area of rain exits by mid afternoon, leaving a few
lingering showers into the early evening hours. However, another
slug of steady rain will move in overnight into Monday morning as
the occluded front follows behind the weak surface low. Forcing and
moisture will both be a little better with this boundary than what
we`re seeing this morning. The front may also become oriented
parallel to the flow for a time as winds turn more toward the S/SW,
which may lead to some training of cells. All this points toward
tonight seeing higher rainfall amounts than today. Rainfall amounts
through the day today will range from just a few hundredths in the
Northeast Kingdom (due to shadowing from the Whites), to around a
half an inch in the Adirondacks and southern St Lawrence Valley.
Tonight into Monday, meanwhile, expect a widespread third to half an
inch of rain, with some spots seeing up to three-quarters of an
inch. Rainfall rates will be moderate at times but not enough to
cause any flooding concerns beyond perhaps some ponding in poor
drainage areas. The rain comes to an end from west to east quite
quickly Monday afternoon, and expect we`ll see the sun poke out by
evening. Highs will be much warmer than today, seasonably in the mid
60s to mid 70s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure will build across the Northeast CONUS
Monday night and Tuesday, giving us a break from the wet weather. A
cold front will start to approach from the north late in the day
Tuesday, but don`t anticipate much more than increasing clouds
through the daylight hours. Flow will turn toward the southwest, and
this with sunshine will allow highs to warm into the mid 70s to low
80s. Winds will pick up a bit ahead of the incoming front, so it
might be a little breezy later in the day, especially in the
Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys and along the northern slopes of
the Adirondacks.
The front moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday as the surface
low passes by well to our east. As is usually the case, the front
will move through rather piecemeal, with a wind shift/surface trough
coming through early Wednesday, followed by a temperature/moisture
gradient later Wednesday. Either way, with meager forcing and
moisture, don`t expect much more than a round or two of scattered
showers. While instability doesn`t look very impressive, can`t
totally rule out a rumble of thunder or two Wednesday afternoon with
the secondary front. Wednesday will be a little cooler than Tuesday,
mainly in northern areas, but it will still be warm with highs in
the low 70s to around 80F.
KEY MESSAGE 3: No significant weather is currently anticipated Thursday
through Saturday. In the upper air pattern, there will likely be a
cutoff low over the western US and large ridge downstream over
central North America. This pattern will support northwest flow and
cool weather in the North Country and New England, with potential
for showers when any shortwaves of polar origin push through our
area. The predictability of how these fast moving systems progress
is very low at this time, so it is impossible to say when and where
showers will occur. That being said, the blend of models suggests
Friday during the daytime hours is our greatest opportunity for
seeing some rain and most unseasonably cool conditions. High
temperature spread on both Friday and Saturday are greater than
typical, owing to the uncertainty in how anomalous of a cool air
mass will be present and associated cloud cover/rain. Needless to
say, the current forecast highs could trend substantially cooler on
either or both days as predictability increases moving forward.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions are
present with light to moderate rain across the airspace. Showers
have already become more scattered in western areas, including
at MSS, and the steadier rain will tend to become lighter
resulting in mainly VFR visibilities. Ceilings have generally
been elevated more than anticipated, so confidence in MVFR
ceilings during the next several hours is limited. Steady rain
will shift south and east of the region between 15Z and 21Z.
Another round of widespread showers will move in from the
southwest towards 06Z resulting in more MVFR conditions, with
greater chance for some IFR ceilings to develop.
Winds also have been slow to increase at the surface, with light
south to southeast winds 10 knots or less occurring at most
sites. Still expect as showers diminish this afternoon gusts of
20 to 30 knots will develop. Given the winds aloft we do expect
LLWS to continue especially through 06Z before core of 30 to 40
knot winds at 2000 feet shift east of the area.
Outlook...
Memorial Day: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 231 AM EDT Sunday...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for today. South to southeast
winds will increase early this morning, becoming sustained 15 to
25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves will be 1 to 3 feet.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Hastings
AVIATION...Kutikoff
MARINE...NWS BTV
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