327
FXUS61 KBTV 131201
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
701 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper will bring a few snow showers and a brief lake effect
band today and tomorrow, leading to light accumulations in the
mountains and over parts of northern New York. A mostly dry day
will prevail Monday before another clipper brings a few snow
showers Monday night. A warming trend looks to lead to some rain
and snow mix at the end of the week, though the prevalence of
the different precipitation types remains uncertain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 132 AM EST Saturday...A few light snow showers are still
managing to linger across parts of the Greens and highlands of
the Northeast Kingdom, but decreasing cloud cover and moisture
should cause them to end within the next few hours. Temperatures
tonight depend largely on cloud cover. Places that have been
clear for the whole evening like Massena are close to zero but
some of the clouded over areas are still in the mid to upper
20s. Temperatures should drop a bit more before developing
southerly winds late in the night cause them to bottom out or
increase in most areas. A clipper will move through in the
afternoon and evening and bring some light snow showers, though
not much in the way in accumulations are expected in most
places. The exception is in parts of the St. Lawrence Valley and
western Adirondacks due to some lake enhancement. Not only will
1-3 inches be possible locally, but there will also be the
potential for snow squalls. A dropping front will provide the
forcing and lake moisture/heat will provide enough instability
that convective snow showers will develop. There look to be
50-75 J of CAPE and the instability looks to reach up to almost
10,000 feet. The squall potential drops quickly heading east,
and while a few heavier snow showers are possible in the
Champlain Valley and eastward, squalls look very unlikely there.
This is due to the lake enhancement diminishing and the
synoptic forcing weakening. A few light snow showers will
continue Saturday night in places but the accumulation should be
mostly done.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 132 AM EST Saturday...Lingering moisture in the low snow
growth zone could continue causing a few snow showers to linger
on Sunday, but any of the stronger dynamics will be over
southern New England so not much in the way of accumulations are
expected. Flow becomes more northwesterly and sends the lake
moisture to the south. Brief ridging will build on Monday and
should briefly end the snow showers. The coldest of the airmass
will be over the region Monday morning, but it will be
significantly modified by the time it makes it here, so it will
not be nearly as cold as parts of the Upper Midwest are night
now. Enough heat is wrapping its way around from the unfrozen
Hudson Bay and Great Lakes to notably warm the airmass.
Temperatures should still fall into the single digits to around
zero in most places with chills between 0 and -15, but that is a
far cry from the -20 to -40 wind chills out over parts of the
Upper Midwest.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 132 AM EST Saturday...Some light snow showers are
expected for Monday night as a weak low pressure system passes
north of the international border. There will be a break in
precipitation Tuesday into Tuesday night, then another low
pressure system will approach from the northwest bringing next
chance for snow showers to the region. A stronger and more
robust system is shaping up for the Thursday night into Friday
timeframe. Warm air is expected with strong southerly flow ahead
of this system on Thursday, so unfortunately with this system
comes a chance for liquid precipitation once again. Still a lot
of uncertainty this far out, but will continue to monitor
potential for this to be an impactful system towards the end of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Currently VFR conditions at all terminals.
Winds will begin to shift to the south today. We will monitor
two waves of snow. The first will shift east from 14-18z
associated with this wind shift. Dry air may result in some
virga, and PROB30s highlight this potential. The second, more
impactful round will shift east of the St. Lawrence River about
18z, where some embedded heavy snowfall may reduce visibilities
to 1SM or less. However, as it shifts east of KSLK, activity
will quickly fall apart. Ahead of that, south to southwest winds
will likely increase towards 7 to 11 knots with a few gusts up
16 to 20 knots. Wind speeds decrease again with a general trend
towards MVFR ceilings.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
Channeled southerly flow will develop later in the night and
continue through the day, causing winds on the lake to be
between 15-30 KTs. Winds decrease quickly this evening as flow
turns westerly. They should be around and below 10 KTs by
midnight. Waves will build up to around 2-5 feet by the
afternoon, before they quickly diminish in the evening as winds
drop. A few brief snow showers are possible today and tonight
but they should be light and brief.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...Myskowski
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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