046
FXUS61 KBTV 130637
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
137 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper will bring a few snow showers and a brief lake effect band
today and tomorrow, leading to light accumulations in the mountains
and over parts of northern New York. A mostly dry day will prevail
Monday before another clipper brings a few snow showers Monday
night. A warming trend looks to lead to some rain and snow mix at
the end of the week, though the prevalence of the different
precipitation types remains uncertain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 132 AM EST Saturday...A few light snow showers are still
managing to linger across parts of the Greens and highlands of the
Northeast Kingdom, but decreasing cloud cover and moisture should
cause them to end within the next few hours. Temperatures tonight
depend largely on cloud cover. Places that have been clear for the
whole evening like Massena are close to zero but some of the clouded
over areas are still in the mid to upper 20s. Temperatures should
drop a bit more before developing southerly winds late in the night
cause them to bottom out or increase in most areas. A clipper will
move through in the afternoon and evening and bring some light snow
showers, though not much in the way in accumulations are expected in
most places. The exception is in parts of the St. Lawrence Valley
and western Adirondacks due to some lake enhancement. Not only will
1-3 inches be possible locally, but there will also be the potential
for snow squalls. A dropping front will provide the forcing and lake
moisture/heat will provide enough instability that convective snow
showers will develop. There look to be 50-75 J of CAPE and the
instability looks to reach up to almost 10,000 feet. The squall
potential drops quickly heading east, and while a few heavier snow
showers are possible in the Champlain Valley and eastward, squalls
look very unlikely there. This is due to the lake enhancement
diminishing and the synoptic forcing weakening. A few light snow
showers will continue Saturday night in places but the accumulation
should be mostly done.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 132 AM EST Saturday...Lingering moisture in the low snow growth
zone could continue causing a few snow showers to linger on Sunday,
but any of the stronger dynamics will be over southern New England
so not much in the way of accumulations are expected. Flow becomes
more northwesterly and sends the lake moisture to the south. Brief
ridging will build on Monday and should briefly end the snow
showers. The coldest of the airmass will be over the region Monday
morning, but it will be significantly modified by the time it makes
it here, so it will not be nearly as cold as parts of the Upper
Midwest are night now. Enough heat is wrapping its way around from
the unfrozen Hudson Bay and Great Lakes to notably warm the airmass.
Temperatures should still fall into the single digits to around zero
in most places with chills between 0 and -15, but that is a far cry
from the -20 to -40 wind chills out over parts of the Upper Midwest.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 132 AM EST Saturday...Some light snow showers are expected for
Monday night as a weak low pressure system passes north of the
international border. There will be a break in precipitation Tuesday
into Tuesday night, then another low pressure system will approach
from the northwest bringing next chance for snow showers to the
region. A stronger and more robust system is shaping up for the
Thursday night into Friday timeframe. Warm air is expected with
strong southerly flow ahead of this system on Thursday, so
unfortunately with this system comes a chance for liquid
precipitation once again. Still a lot of uncertainty this far out,
but will continue to monitor potential for this to be an impactful
system towards the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Overnight will be characterized by clouds
around 1500-5000 ft agl that should briefly thin out between roughly
06z-10z before high clouds begin to shift overhead. Northwest to
west winds of 5-10 knots will become light and variable. For
Saturday, winds will begin to shift to the south. We will monitor
two waves of snow. The first will shift east from 14-18z associated
with the wind shift. Dry air may result in some virga, and PROB30s
highlight this potential. The second, more impactful round will
shift east of the St. Lawrence River about 18z, where some embedded
heavy snowfall may reduce visibilities to 1SM or less. However, as
it shifts east of KSLK, activity will quickly fall apart. Ahead of
that, south to southwest winds will likely increase towards 7 to 11
knots with a few gusts up 16 to 20 knots. Wind speeds decrease again
with a general trend towards MVFR ceilings.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: MVFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
Channeled southerly flow will develop later in the night and
continue through the day, causing winds on the lake to be
between 15-30 KTs. Winds decrease quickly this evening as flow
turns westerly. They should be around and below 10 KTs by
midnight. Waves will build up to around 2-5 feet by the
afternoon, before they quickly diminish in the evening as winds
drop. A few brief snow showers are possible today and tonight
but they should be light and brief.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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