674
FXUS61 KBTV 271833
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
133 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 132 PM EST Friday...
Increasing confidence in a period of light to moderate snow Sunday.
Increasing snow chances on Tuesday night into Wednesday as well.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 132 PM EST Friday...
1. Gusty winds tonight into tomorrow.
2. An area of light to moderate snow passes through Sunday.
3. During the total lunar eclipse Tuesday morning, sky cover is
somewhat uncertain at this time, with some high altitude clouds
possible.
4. Temperatures turning warmer with several chances for
precipitation by middle to late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 132 PM EST Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A strong clipper passes by well to the north tonight
into Saturday, causing gusty southerly winds and significant warm
air advection. Its pressure looks to drop to around 980 mb, causing
a southerly low level jet to pass overhead. Gusty channeled flow in
the Champlain Valley and downsloping winds across the northern
Adirondacks are likely. Gusts in the 30 to 45 mph range are likely
in the favored areas, while they should mostly be in the 20 to 30
mph range elsewhere. The warm air advection will promote
temperatures in the 40s on Saturday, but low dew points will prevent
any significant melting. The strong winds could move around pieces
of ice on the broad lake where there are already cracks, so use a
lot of caution if venturing out of the protected bays. Winds
decrease sharply around midday and in the afternoon after the jet
moves out.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong cold front passes through late Saturday and
Saturday night, dropping temperatures below freezing. An incoming
longwave trough will build into the region Saturday night into
Sunday, and a shortwave will ride along it as it digs into the
region. An area of low pressure will form along this shortwave and
should bring an area of light to moderate snow to the region.
Overall, a dusting to about two inches is expected. However, there
is still notable model disagreement on how diffuse/compact the area
of snow will be, but overall, a period of snow is increasingly
likely on Sunday.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Between 6 and 6:30 AM Tuesday, a total lunar eclipse, or
"Blood Moon" will likely be visible across the area. The easy part
of the forecast is that it will be seasonably cold and dry. But will
skies be clear? As high pressure moves to the southeast overnight,
some high clouds well out ahead of a frontal system to our northwest
may spill into the region in addition to increasing cloud cover from
a southern stream of energy. Therefore, the deterministic sky cover
forecast currently doesn`t look representative of what actual sky
cover will probably look like; as an example, there is a band of
clearing into the morning across the central portions of the area,
but it does not seem obviously clearer there than in
central/southern portions of Vermont. By Sunday night into Monday as
this system develops over western provinces of Canada, it should
become more clear how the cloudiness will play out for our area.
KEY MESSAGE 4: Temperatures early next week will follow a warming trend
following the cold this weekend. High pressure will shift to the
east/southeast Tuesday with temperatures rising into the mid to
upper 30s, and perhaps 40 by mid to late week with southerly waa. An
area of low pressure will ride along the western edge of the
departing high Tuesday night into Wednesday with chances for
precipitation. Model spread has somewhat stabilized and trended more
towards the GFS solution, indicating a more northerly track to the
low which would bring increased QPF to the region than previous runs
of the ECMWF and CMC. PWATs are generally 0.4-0.5" in the GEFS.
Although temperatures will be rising above freezing, with dewpoints
still expected to be below freezing, dynamical cooling should help
support ptypes as mainly snow through wet-bulbing. Although ptypes
are likely to be frozen, temperatures will still be marginal between
30 to 32, so any snow would likely be of a wet character. Adding to
the complexity, southerly winds typically shadow much of the
Champlain Valley, and allow for a quicker moving system, which would
lead to less precipitation in general for much of the area. While
there is still some uncertainty with this system, there is
increasing confidence in snow as the dominant ptype, with more of a
high PoP, low QPF setup. As the low lifts north, lingering
precipitation could trend towards rain by Wednesday morning as waa
overcomes the dynamical cooling processes, and warm air aloft erodes
the colder air mass.
The departing low will leave a boundary just to our south on
Wednesday allowing for a secondary system to lift north by late next
week. A strong area of high pressure will ride north of the region,
but how far north is leading to a split in the ensembles. GEFS
members depict a more northerly high over northern Quebec allowing
850mb temperatures to increase towards 0C, with 1000-500mb 540dam
thicknesses rising to the International Border. This solution would
favor more rain, with perhaps some mix with colder surface
temperatures east of the Greens, especially with the high to the
north. On the other hand, the EPS and CMC depict a stronger, closer
high over northern Maine which would resemble more of a cold air
damming setup with increased cold air and favor more snow at the
onset with some wintry mix as the system progresses in time. PWATs
look to be higher due to a connection to the Gulf and Atlantic with
this system regardless of track, given the development of a Bermuda
High. The spread and timing of the system is still uncertain, but
the presence of increasing southerly stream energy and moisture,
coupled with a northern high, does bode some confidence in some
wintry mix by late week. That being said, the storm track is so
uncertain that it is too early to provide any potential impacts.
Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions are favored for the next
several hours. A weak boundary and light snow showers stretches
from Lake Ontario east towards the Green Mountains. The
Ogdensburg airport has occasionally noted precipitation, but
never anything below 6SM. Noted PROB30s for KSLK, KBTV, and KEFK
for 6SM in light snow, in case any activity can overcome the dry
air near the surface. A patchy cloud deck at 4000-7000 ft agl is
being noted across the region, and after 00z, skies will trend
clear. The main concern will be steadily climbing south to
southwest winds to 2000 ft agl that peaks around 45-55 knots
from about 06z-16z. Surface south winds will also increase to
8-15 knots with gusts 17-25 knots, but not fast enough that left
in a mention of LLWS for every terminal. Winds peak about
10z-16z, and KBTV is likely to see gusts around 30 knots in that
interval. A thin strip of rain or snow showers will shift east,
but it may be virga across several locations, and so
represented this precipitation with PROB30s.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. This communications line is not serviced by
the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue, but
amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Danzig
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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