779
FXUS61 KBTV 231145
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
645 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 556 AM EST Friday...PoPs were slightly increased across
the Adirondacks early this morning where lake effect snow is
occurring, then again across the Adirondacks, Greens, and
Northeast Kingdom this afternoon for snow showers and snow
squalls with additional orographic lift from mountains.
Hourly temperatures and dew points were also adjusted slightly
today based on comparing latest observations and latest model
solutions. Highs today are forecast to be in the 10-25 degree
Fahrenheit range, likely occurring in the morning before the
arctic cold front drops temperatures this afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 205 AM EST Friday...
1. Localized hazardous travel is expected today due to a
combination of scattered snow showers, snow squalls, and a lake
effect snow band. Sharply reduced visibility due to both falling
and blowing snow, and a rapid accumulation of snow will make
for slippery and hazardous travel, including today`s morning and
evening commutes.
2. Dangerously cold conditions are expected tonight and
tomorrow, with wind chills of -20F to -40F likely. Risk of
hypothermia and frostbite is unusually high due to the extreme
nature of the cold, especially for vulnerable populations and
anyone venturing outdoors without proper cold weather gear.
3. A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for the entire region for
the potential of 7 inches or more of snow late Sunday through
Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 205 AM EST Friday...
.KEY MESSAGE 1: A narrow lake effect band is visible on radar
imagery to the northeast of Lake Ontario as gusty west winds
continue early this morning. This band will shift northwards,
crossing through southern St Lawrence County again today.
Additional snowfall accumulations between 2 and 4 inches are
expected with a storm total of 3 to 9 inches in southern St
Lawrence County, with the highest totals along and south of
Route 3. Hence the Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
until 7 pm today.
Another round of snow squalls is looking likely today as a
secondary, arctic front currently located near Barrie and
Algonquin Park, Ontario, moves through the forecast area from
northwest to southeast. With better frontal forcing today than
yesterday, the squalls should be less scattered, forming a few
broken lines through the afternoon and evening. As winds turn
more northwesterly behind this frontal boundary, we`ll see lake
effect come to an end sometime this afternoon or evening.
Either from today`s squalls or the lake effect band, heavy
snowfall rates and gusty winds (gusts as high as 20 to 40 mph
possible) will make for localized treacherous travel due to
visibility reduced to below 1/2 mile and rapid snow
accumulations resulting in slippery roads. Anyone driving today
needs to remain alert and be prepared for highly variable
driving conditions. You may want to consider postponing travel
until after the squalls/lake effect have ended.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: An arctic frontal boundary will cross our region
throughout the day today, followed by a much colder air mass
with 925mb temperatures falling into the -25 to -31 C range,
resulting in surface temperatures as low as 5 to 25 degrees F
below zero by early Saturday morning. Winds will be breeziest
during the early portion of the night with northwesterly gusts
20 to 40 mph decreasing to 15 to 30 mph early Saturday morning
as the atmosphere remains mixed. With temperatures and winds
combined, we expect wind chills to be at least 20 to 40 degrees
below zero, likely lower on summits. The most extreme conditions
will therefore be in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. We
are urging people to stay indoors if possible, especially
vulnerable populations like the elderly and children. If you
must be outdoors, please make sure to wear plenty of warm gear,
including gloves or mittens and a hat. Any exposed skin will be
susceptible to frostbite in just a few minutes. And don`t forget
about your pets; bring them inside if at all possible.
Though tonight looks like the worst of the cold, on Saturday
we`ll remain under the very cold air mass, and temperatures
likely won`t rise above -5 to 10 F the entire day. 1041mb high
pressure will shift over northern New York throughout the day,
but the atmosphere at the surface looks to remain mixed,
allowing for a few west to northwest breezes throughout the day,
enough to keep wind chills -5 to -20 F or lower. Though our
Extreme Cold Warning ends Saturday afternoon, cold conditions
will continue beyond this time frame, just at a lesser degree. A
Cold Weather Advisory may be needed into Saturday night,
especially for portions of the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom. One limiting factor to this potential will be
increasing clouds ahead of a storm system that looks on track to
impact to our region early next week. More on that in Key
Message 3.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The potential for a widespread moderate to heavy
snowfall continues to increase across the area late Sunday
through Monday. On a broad scale, large scale troughing across
the northern Plains will dig in across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Sunday, amplifying a southern stream of energy racing
across the southeast CONUS. This amplification of the southern
stream of energy will draw a deepening surface coastal low along
the East Coast with coupled parent mid/upper low over the
eastern Great Lakes drawing in deeper moisture into all of New
England. Questions still remain on how much of this deep
moisture reaches New England and how far north due to the
presence of a retreating strong and dry 1040mb high situated
over northwestern Maine. Recent trends have suggested that this
high will be north of the International Border allowing
additional moisture to advect into northern New England eroding
the dry air mass faster than across previous model runs. With
that in mind, there is still a wide array of snowfall amounts
across the various models.
Strong 850-700mb frontogenesis along the northern periphery of
the southern stream of energy and subsequent coastal low will
strengthen with strong convergence and mid level troughing
across New York. Strong lift coupled with a deep DGZ to 10-15kft
(progged on the GFS model soundings) from the surface indicates
prolonged periods of heavy snowfall. It is noted that the DGZ
from prior runs is not as deep, however, as hi res data
increases with closeness to the event, the NAM still is
suggesting a potential up to 20,000ft DGZ. Thermal profiles well
below freezing with ample deep layer moisture depict the
potential for large snow aggregates with big time fluff factors
across the region. Snow ratios between 20 to 25:1 are
increasingly likely. There is now increased confidence in
widespread advisory level snowfall (4" or more), with further
confidence in most areas seeing the potential for at least 7" or
more. NBMv5 progs a minimum of 50% across the entire region for
at least 8" of snow. It is also worth noting that even the 10th
percentile of snowfall amounts on the NBM is already 7".
Furthermore, probabilities of 12" or more across Rutland and
Windsor Counties are up to nearly 75%. Mesoscale banding within
the precipitation shield, and more mesoscale features will
become apparent in the coming days which will help refine snow
totals. As the system begins to depart midday Monday, lingering
troughing extending eastward from deformation associated with
the parent low to the west could keep snowfall across the higher
terrain and eastern Vermont into parts of Monday evening and
early Tuesday. Eventually moisture decreases Tuesday and snow
showers taper off.
Temperatures will remain well below normal for this system
which could make shoveling hazardous. Overnight lows on Sunday
will be in the single digits, with highs Monday and Tuesday in
the upper single digits to mid teens.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Today will be dominated by a persistent
lake effect band at SLK, with intermittent snow squalls across
most terminals. The lake effect band continues to waffle about
SLK with the current round expected to sink south over the next
hour or so before returning by 16Z through 20-22Z. IFR vsbys as
low as 1SM with MVFR 1000-2000ft agl cigs are expected under
the lake effect band. The band is also leading to upslope snow
showers with some blocked flow at MPV this morning which is
expected to continue through at least 16Z. By 18Z, the snow
squall potential increases for all terminals. Current thinking
is for 2-3 broken lines of snow showers with embedded snow
squalls, generally from 19-22Z, and then from 23-03Z from west
to east as an arctic front passes through. Have tried to time
out the best timing for each terminal with PROB30 groups, and
some TEMPO groups where confidence is higher in the timing. RUT
is the only terminal questionable with regards to squall
potential as it appears they may weaken as they push southward.
Generally snow squalls could see brief vsby reductions as low as
1/2SM, with cigs reductions to MVFR. Winds will become gusty
this morning with the sunrise with day times gusts up to 20 to
30 kts, with locally higher under any snow bands. Winds will
also shift to the west/northwest with the cold frontal passage
by this evening. Behind the front, ceilings may lower overnight
for a brief period at MPV/SLK/EFK, before clearing out closer to
daybreak tomorrow.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Definite SN.
Monday: MVFR and IFR. Definite SN.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record low maximum temperatures are possible on Saturday; below
are the current records:
KBTV (Burlington area): -4 in 1907
KPBG (Plattsburgh area): 0 in 1976
KSLK (Saranac Lake area): -10 in 1936
KMSS (Massena): -5 in 2004
KMPV (Montpelier): 0 in 2004
SJBV1 (St. Johnsbury): -3 in 1907
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Saturday for VTZ001>011-016>021.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Monday
night for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Saturday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Monday
night for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ029.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Storm
AVIATION...Danzig
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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