968
FXUS61 KBTV 100652
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
252 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 251 AM EDT Friday...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 251 AM EDT Friday...
1. A cold front will continue to move through this morning, and
with it an end to shower activity. More seasonable and drier weather
is expected heading into this weekend.
2. A brief burst of heat will give way to a steadier period of
more seasonable weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 251 AM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will continue to slide south and east
across the region this morning. A few light to moderate showers will
be possible south of US-2 through the early morning today, but as
the front sags south, showers will begin to taper off. Behind the
front through the rest of today, cooler northerly air will begin to
filter south from Canada with mid to upper level drying. As our mid
to upper levels cool, an inversion may set up with a warm nose
present around 800-700mb. This may help spur some isolated, mainly
terrain-driven showers in the Adirondacks and Greens; albeit under a
30% chance of rain this afternoon. By and large most will see a
mainly dry today with clearing skies by the afternoon. Temperatures
today will be much cooler than recent days, only reaching the low
70s to low 80s with initial clouds and northerly flow. With the
northerly flow, a light channeled wind in the Champlain Valley may
make it feel a bit breezy (around 15 MPH). Some fog may be possible
in the usual river valleys tonight due to the recent rains and
clearing skies.
Into the weekend, dry and seasonably warm highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s are expected. Dewpoints will also make it feel quite
comfortable, with values only around 50F. A mix of sun and clouds
can be expected both Saturday and Sunday with clear radiationally
cooled overnights. Expect lows in the low to mid 50s and some patchy
valley fog, mainly in eastern Vermont, though fog coverage will
decrease with subsequent nights through the weekend. Temperatures
and the humidity will begin to rebound back up to start off next
week as ridging returns to the region.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A hot and dry air mass will get squeezed between a
large, anomalous upper high in the central US, and an upper low
that`s nothing to sniff at either diving into northern Quebec
Province. The fortunate news for us is that this jailbreak heat will
get shunted south by this upper low digging southwards. We`ll have
one day of very warm temperatures to contend with, and 925mb
temperatures will push 25-26 C. This usually corresponds with upper
80s for cooler elevation areas, and mid 90s in the broad valleys.
The continental source of the air mass will keep dewpoints at least
in the low to mid 60s as opposed to truly tropical air.
By Tuesday evening into the overnight, a powerful surface cold front
will drop south with this upper low taking up residence in northern
Quebec Province. The late timing could prevent activity from being
strong, but it seems likely that it will at least linger some
Tuesday night into Wednesday before shifting south. We`ll watch
trends on that, and then afterwards, we`re in for some spectacular
summer weather, with near normal temperatures, and below normal
moisture appears likely.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...A cold front is still in transit through the
area. A few showers continue to periodically develop, but coverage
is rather limited, except in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Most
locations are VFR or MVFR, but there is patchy lower clouds around
600-900 ft agl, mostly impacting KMSS and KSLK. Over the next 2-4
hours before northwest winds develop, some patchy fog or low
ceilings may progress through the area, and any clearing may quickly
produce fog. In some cases, though, it seems that ceilings may lower
as cooler, more stable air moves in and some moisture gets stuck
against terrain for a few hours before sunrise, which could result
in prevailing IFR at KSLK, and intervals of IFR at KMPV and KEFK.
After 13z, clouds will begin to quickly scatter. Northwest to north
winds are expected for most, with speed increasing to 6-11 knots
with a few gusts to 18-20 knots possible. After 22z, winds will
trend light and variable under clear skies. Fog may quickly develop
past 06z Saturday in favored locations.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Danzig
AVIATION...Haynes
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