522
FXUS61 KBTV 090655
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
255 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 254 AM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes have been made with this forecast package.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 254 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Seasonal temperatures and periodic rain chances are expected
across the region this weekend.
2. Drier and cooler weather expected for the beginning of next
week.
3. Gradual warming trend to near to above normal temperatures
mid to late next week with a few chances of light rain showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 254 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak warm front will lift north this morning which
will increase cloud cover across the region. For far southern
Vermont, enough moisture advection and convergence is expected to
help drive some light rain showers through the late morning hours
through late this afternoon. Rainfall totals will be rather
lackluster with under two tenths of an inch of rain expected.
Further north and west, a tight gradient in rainfall chances (and
forecasted rain totals) is being forecast given the antecedent dry
air in the low and mid-levels. For most, today will be dry and
seasonably mild with highs in the 60s. While we don`t quite have the
criteria for issuing a special weather statement for cold water
safety (temperatures are a few degrees too low), we want to
encourage those who are recreating on area waterways to wear a life
vest/PFD as water temperatures are currently in the low to mid 40s.
These water temperatures can lead to shock and cause difficulties in
swimming/floating. Please be safe if enjoying the great outdoors of
Vermont and New York today. For Sunday, a pre-frontal trough ahead
of a surface cold front will lead to a broken line of showers during
the early morning hours. Models are showing that a lot of the low
level moisture shifts eastward with the trough. Some sun is expected
during the afternoon hours which will allow temperatures to warm
into the mid to upper 60s before the cold front Sunday night.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Surface high pressure will build across the region early
next week which should pave the way for some drier weather. However,
we will still be under the influence of a strong 500 mb low located
well north of the International Border. This will lead to period of
cloudiness with colder temperatures advecting in from the Northwest.
As we begin to head into the middle of May, we will see temperatures
10+ degrees below normal with frost possible both Monday and Tuesday
night for much of the region.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Mid week we are still influenced by broad trof across NE
CONUS and Canada with a chance of showers in the late Wed-thu
timeframe but nothing really organized and heavy. Western CONUS
ridging as it moves east is dampened by this semi-permanent trof but
heights do rise with gradual warming conditions late week into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Showers are diminishing across the region,
and the combination of sunset and departure of an upper trough
will clear skies tonight. West to northwest winds will trend
light and variable beyond 02z. Winds will become south to
southeasterly after 12z, and quickly increase to 9 to 14 knots
with gusts to 20 knots. Winds appear likely to be locally higher
at KPBG up to 15 knots and gusting to 25 knots. Clouds will
increase from the south with light rain. The cut off will be
sharp, with rain and potential MVFR reach KRUT and KMPV about
16z-17z, but not at any other terminal. Ceilings will trend
6000-10000 ft agl outside KMPV and KRUT. After 22z, rain will
shift east and winds will begin to slacken.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...SLW/Clay
AVIATION...SLW
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