313
FXUS61 KBTV 260702
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
302 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 302 AM EDT Tuesday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 302 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Gusty winds today.
2. Seasonable temperatures and mostly dry mid-week
3. Below normal temperatures with scattered showers expected
late week into the upcoming weekend, but probability of significant
or highly impactful weather is very low at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 302 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A southwesterly low-level jet moves into the region this
afternoon and evening, bringing gusty winds. Efficient mixing up to
around 800 mb will allow most of it to mix to the surface. While
most places should only see gusts between 20 and 30 mph, locally
stronger winds are expected in the St. Lawrence Valley due to
channeling and the peak of the jet being located farther north.
There, gusts in the 30 to 45 mph range are expected. Localized
downsloping in parts of the far northern Adirondacks could also lead
to similar gusts. The strongest winds will be in the afternoon and
early evening before mixing becomes less efficient as the sun goes
down. Temperatures today will also be quite warm, reaching the 80s
for most places.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front passes down from the north on Wednesday.
While it will cause a drop in temperatures, it will come through
mostly dry. While a shower or two cannot be completely ruled out,
weak forcing will struggle to initiate any activity and dry air in
the low levels will help prevent anything that does form from
reaching the ground. The air aloft will continue to cool going into
Thursday and a few diurnal showers are possible, mostly across
northern areas and higher elevations. Low humidity in the low levels
will again help cause virga, but there should be enough instability
to produce strong enough showers to allow some rain to reach the
ground. Overall, the coverage should remain isolated to scattered.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A highly amplified pattern is anticipated over the CONUS
late week into the upcoming weekend, unfortunately we are progged to
remain mostly in troughiness. This wl result in unsettled wx with a
higher probability of below normal temps, as ridge remains acrs the
central Plains. Most guidance is in excellent agreement with a small
compact closed 7-5h circulation moving directly overhead late Friday
into Saturday associated with northern jet. Given orientation over n-
central Canada this system wl have limited moisture, but good
dynamics and cold core, supporting instability type showers late
Friday into Saturday. Progged 850mb temps near 0C, would support
snow lvls near 4000 ft, especially around 12z Sat when the core of
the coldest air is directly overhead. A cold and raw day with
occasional showers is likely on Saturday, given position of system,
northerly flow, and progged moisture fields. Highs generally 40s
mountains to mid/upper 50s valleys. Additional showers are likely on
Sunday associated with deep northerly upslope flow and embedded s/w
energy. Highest probs wl be acrs the northern Dacks and
central/northern Greens with temps only in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Some warmer and drier wx returns by early next week, as ridge slowly
builds eastward.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Very challenging first 6 hours
associated with potential for areas of patchy fog and localized
VLIFR conditions. Latest GOES-19 fog product shows development
of valley fog across most of central/eastern VT, with some high
clouds impacting southern taf sites. The challenge is high
clouds along with boundary layer winds increasing at 3-6 knots
after 08z, which could limit fog development. Highest
probability of IFR/LIFR is MPV with intervals of IFR at SLK/RUT
and 20-30% chance of IFR at EFK/BTV. Have utilized tempo`s
groups at most sites to indicate this thinking. Any fog/mist
will lift by 12z as boundary layer winds continue to increase at
5 to 10 knots. Winds increase 10 to 20 knots with localized
gusts up to 20 to 30 knots expected by late morning into the
afternoon hours today as VFR conditions prevail.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Taber/Myskowski
AVIATION...Taber
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