558
FXUS61 KBTV 010713
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
313 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 311 AM EDT Friday...
No major changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 311 AM EDT Friday...
1. Cool and unsettled conditions are expected through the
weekend, with chances for frost.
2. Rainy and unsettled weather is expected much of next week,
especially Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 311 AM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Following departing cold front which crossed the
region yesterday cooler air will be in place through the
weekend. A large upper level trough stays over the region, and
shortwave energy passing through base of trough will bring
several chances for light showers. Maximum temperatures will be
in the 50s through the weekend with a return to 60s by Monday
when upper trough finally starts to begin to move eastward and
some upper level ridging will build over our area. Minimum
temperatures will be in the 30s tonight through Sunday night,
and may see some frost but not enough coverage in the Champlain
valley for an advisory. There should be some clouds and possibly
showers around due to vorticity advection aloft.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A large upper low will remain centered near
Hudson Bay through next week, with shortwaves pinwheeling across
the Great Lakes and the Northeast. The result will be multiple
waves of precipitation through the extended forecast period. The
first of these looks to be Tuesday into Wednesday, when a
surface low pressure system moves by well to our north, dragging
a cold front across the eastern CONUS. There will be a long
fetch of moisture out ahead of the front and there are some
indications that the front could stall or become nearly
stationary as waves of low pressure ride along the boundary.
There`s still plenty of uncertainty this far out, so it`s
difficult to say definitively when/where/if this front will
stall, but the deterministic GFS, CMC, and ECMWF all show it
occurring somewhere in the vicinity of New England and/or the
Canadian border down into the Ohio Valley or central/southern
Appalachians. Some ensemble members have a similar solution, as
well. Wherever the front does stall, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches would be possible. Other than the exact placement, models
also differ on how quickly the front exits, but with the upper
low still in place, additional precipitation would be likely
even once the front moves out. While there are no flooding
concerns at this point, we`ll need to watch trends closely going
forward.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Variable ceilings are expected through
the TAF period, though most sites will see prevailing VFR. Brief
periods of MVFR ceilings are possible at KEFK/KMPV through 10z,
but otherwise expect SCT-BKN clouds AOA 4000 ft. Light and
variable winds overnight will increase out of the northwest
after 14z Fri, with gusts of 15-20 kt possible during the
daylight hours.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
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