337
FXUS61 KBTV 080754
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
354 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low pressure system will promote intermittent shower
activity across Vermont and northern New York, especially Wednesday.
Afternoon temperatures in the 50s and nighttime temperatures in the
30s to lower 40s are expected over the next several days. Higher
elevations, generally above 2500 feet in elevation, are likely to
see some snow mix during the overnight hours. Temperatures are
likely to briefly warm over the weekend followed by more
widespread precipitation late Sunday into Monday ahead of a
dynamic weather system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Tuesday...Skies have cleared out across much of the
region, though some patchy clouds continue to linger in parts of
Vermont. Outside of clouds, there has been some fog building up,
primarily in the Adirondacks. VAD profiles still suggest 15 to 20
knot wind speeds are present off the surface, and that is keeping
fog at bay for now. Models suggest these winds will abate in the
next couple hours, and this should allow additional fog to form
across the region. By mid-morning, fog will burn off, and then we`ll
be dealing with some showers drifting off Lake Huron and Lake
Ontario. Thus, activity will be most likely across northern New
York, and then it looks like a few additional showers eventually
push in to Vermont more towards this evening. It`ll be cool today.
Whiteface summit is currently 28 F. So with little warming today,
some summit level snow is looking pretty good. Lower elevations will
generally stay in the 50s today with plain rain.

Overnight, showers will diminish with the loss of daytime heating.
Although there could still be some scattered cloud cover. However,
this appears to mainly be anchored to higher terrain with lower
elevations a little clearer. With relatively light flow, it appears
likely for temperatures to drop into the lower 30s to mid 30s in
much of Vermont and northern New York, except along the Champlain
and lower Connecticut River Valleys. Over northern New York, greater
cloud cover will likely hamper frost development. In central
Vermont, this should result in frost. So a Frost Advisory is in
effect covering parts of central Vermont still near the 75th
percentile of their average first freeze.

For Wednesday, a strong vort will shift southeast. Combined with
steeper lapse rates from associated mid-level cooling and a weak
surface trough diving into the area, we should observe several
showers developing across the region during the day along with snow
likely 2500 ft above sea level and possible down to 2000 ft. Closer
to general population areas parts of the Dacks may not even warm
above 50, but most should see at least mid 50s, and in the lower
Connecticut River Valley about 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 351 AM EDT Tuesday...A closed upper low will continue to bring
cool and unsettled weather to the region this week. A period of
upslope showers Wednesday night into early Thursday morning
continues to look favorable as shortwave energy pinwheels about the
upper level low and some colder air digging into the region, and
like the previous forecasts, continued the idea of some light snow
accumulations above 2500 ft with about an inch or so expected across
the Adirondack High Peaks. Overnight lows will be quite chilly, with
temperatures primarily in the 30s to mid 40s near Lake Champlain, so
additional frost headlines may be needed for areas whose growing
season has not ended yet.

Temperatures during the day on Thursday will be quite cool, possible
the coldest of the week, with 850mb temperatures between 0 and -4
degrees Celsius. Lingering showers, plenty of cloud cover, and some
northwesterly flow will also keep things cool during the day
Thursday. Daytime highs will generally be in the upper 40s to mid
50s for most locations, although the higher summits may struggle to
climb above freezing. Overnight lows will be fairly seasonable, in
the 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Tuesday...High pressure will gradually build into
the region towards the end of the week, which will allow
temperatures to become seasonably warm for Friday and Saturday, with
highs in the 50s to lower 60s. There is still plenty of uncertainty
regarding the evolution and timing for any disturbances this
weekend, with all of the deterministic global models showing
different possibilities, but unsettled weather looks to return
towards the weekend with periods of showers but more refinement can
be expected in the coming days. Temperatures look to trend colder
again for Sunday into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Conditions are mainly VFR right now.
There is some stratus with bases around 2800 ft agl on the
eastern side of the Greens near KRUT, and patchy fog showing up
in the lower Connecticut and Adirondacks. Clouds should clear
and some fog should develop across favored locations. With the
light northeasterly component, KBTV may not be exempt from fog
either. Since there is still some 10-15 knot winds around
1000-1200 ft agl, mainly opted for TEMPOs with IFR visibility outside
KSLK. Beyond 13z, southwest to west-northwest winds of 4 to 8
knots are expected and VFR conditions are expected. A batch of
scattered showers is likely to develop along the Adirondacks and
shift into parts of central Vermont around 18z to 02z. Beyond
23z, winds will trend light and variable with scattered cloud
cover around 5000 ft agl.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for
     VTZ006-008-010.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Haynes