096
FXUS61 KBTV 030625
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
125 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A few snow showers will continue mainly for upslope areas over the
next few days with a weak system moving through this weekend
bringing some light snow accumulations. An especially cold
tonight is expected Sunday night with wind chill values
potentially as low as -10 to -20 F. Unseasonably cool
temperatures are expected to trend back towards seasonal
averages by the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 123 AM EST Saturday...Today will feature cyclonic flow and a
subtle trough, which could result in some isolated light snow
showers and scattered flurries this morning, 10-40% chance, mainly
across the mountains, resulting in perhaps a dusting at most.
Temperatures remain well below normal for early January with highs
only in the teens to mid 20s. Breezy conditions this morning on
mountaintops will see winds gradually decrease into tonight.
A more pronounced trough is expected to move through tonight leading
to some scattered light snow showers and flurries, but moisture will
be limited, resulting in snowfall accumulations generally less than
1/2 inch and relegated to higher terrain and St. Lawrence County
where some Lake Ontario moisture becomes entrained into flow.
Overall a low impact period with lows similar to last night`s in the
single digits to lower teens. Isolated light snow showers and
flurries are forecast to linger in the mountains tomorrow under
northwesterly flow as high temperatures continue to only reach the
teens to mid 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 123 AM EST Saturday...Dry air will arrive later Sunday as high
pressure builds overhead, resulting in another strong radiational
cooling event Sunday night that will drop low temperatures sharply
for the region. Portions of the Adirondacks, Green Mountains, and
northern New York could see some wind chill values -20 or lower
while other locations could range -10 to -15. It will depend on
whether or not we maintain some winds; even a light drainage wind of
5 mph or so would be problematic with ambient temperatures below
-10F.
One last well below normal temperature day for awhile is still on
track for Monday, though milder air will begin to arrive across the
St. Lawrence Valley, aloft, and later in the day. Increasing clouds
ahead of an approaching system are anticipated to cap temperatures
in the teens during the day. Snow showers are likely to begin
arriving in parts of St. Lawrence County by the afternoon or evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 201 PM EST Friday...
* Compared to the previous forecast, precipitation timing is a
bit faster: more likely Tuesday night and less likely
Wednesday, especially afternoon.
* A wintry mix of precipitation types remains on the table
midweek. Further warming is expected late in the week, with
potentially an impactful rain event for next Friday.
One last well below normal temperature day for awhile is still
on track for Monday. The latest run of the ECMWF Extreme
Forecast Index, while slightly less impressive than the previous
one, shows unusually low maximum temperatures in our region. An
exception would be the western Adirondacks into southern St.
Lawrence Valley, where the air mass should moderate sooner as
winds turn southerly; low level (925 millibar) temperatures by
evening will approach climatological normals (30-40th
percentile) in these areas, contrasting with Vermont at largely
near the 20th percentile. Increasing clouds will also help limit
warming following a frigid start to the day. Most likely high
temperatures will be in the upper single digits to mid teens for
most locations.
A minor snow event still looks on track for Monday night, but
details remain unclear given the weak forcing and latitudinal
differences in the shortwave responsible for the precipitation.
With the uncertainty in timing/location, light snow still is in
the chance category rather than likely for any given location. A
more robust low pressure area, though still not particularly
strong, will follow for later Tuesday into Wednesday. Again,
model spread is fairly large and actually the consensus has
shifted a touch colder/farther south with the system. There is
still hope for mainly snow rather than rain as probabilities are
roughly equal for much of the region. That being said, a
primary low pressure system tracking to our northwest still is
most likely, which would lead to a wintry mix of precipitation
types. Obviously the track of this system will ultimately
determine the precipitation details, but amounts should be light
to moderate, associated with a system of Pacific origin that
does not tap into additional moisture from the Gulf or Atlantic.
90th percentile NBM QMD data shows reasonable higher end totals
only about 0.3-0.5", but since even light snow and ice could be
meaningful for the Wednesday morning commute timeframe, this
will be a period to watch.
Then to end the week, large scale signals for hydrological
impacts, in a combination of snow melt and rainfall, are present
but not particularly impressive - we aren`t looking at a high
end event at this time. The timeframe begins next Friday but
should continue into the weekend as flow finally amplifies, with
a large ridge developing over the eastern US. Generally,
precipitation chances for Friday are lower than for the midweek
system, but among the ensemble members/model output that show
rainfall, heavier precipitation is favored for at least portions
of the region. A more meridional flow pattern will support a
moist environment; per latest NAEFS mean climatological
percentiles, unseasonably high values of PWAT, southwesterly
oriented integrated vapor transport (IVT), and specific humidity
up to the 500 millibar level, can be expected. The
aforementioned 90th percentile data shows a maximum 24 hour
period with precipitation amounts mainly in the 0.5-1" range,
with wettest guidance in the 1.5"-2" range (about twice that of
the midweek event). As an example of the possible river
responses, the latest run of the GEFS for Center Rutland shows a
large range, but the median forecast depicts a sharp rise
beginning Friday morning. The statistics suggest a categorical
low chance of reaching action stage on Friday, but continued
rises over the weekend lead to a 50% chance of reaching action
stage during the period, along with less than 5% chance of
reaching minor flood stage.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Radar is showing light snow shower activity
expanding in areal coverage across northern NY, which is
confirmed by area webcams. Given relatively dry low levels and
limited moisture have kept flight categories mainly in the
VFR/MVFR range, which exception of brief intervals of IFR
possible at SLK in light snow with vis in the 1-3SM range and
cigs around 2kft agl. Otherwise, any lingering light snow and
mvfr conditions should slowly improve to VFR with MVFR cigs
lingering at MPV/EFK and SLK. Winds are light and variable this
morning, become northwest 3 to 6 knots, except northeast at
pbg.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SN.
Monday Night: MVFR. Chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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