881
FXUS61 KBTV 151118
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
618 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Primary focus remains on a large area of low pressure arriving
this afternoon and evening, bringing widespread precipitation
in the form of a wintry mix and rain. Impacts continue behind
the system as sharply colder and breezy weather moves in
tomorrow. Precipitation will be changing to snow with upslope
areas seeing some accumulation as well as some chilly wind
chills. Additional snow showers will follow early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 246 AM EST Saturday...Have issued a quick update to
increase hourly temperatures as we continue to remain mild early
this morning, which could impact temperatures later today.

* A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of
  northern New York and Vermont due mainly to potential for ice
  accumulation from freezing rain. This will impact northern New
  York first this afternoon and evening before moving across
  Vermont this evening and overnight tonight, especially east
  of the Greens.

Clouds continue this morning across most of northern New York
and Vermont despite high pressure building from southwestern
Quebec. Areas like the St. Lawrence Valley that are seeing early
morning clearing could have some fog or freezing fog just before
or around sunrise. Low pressure currently draped across northern
Manitoba and the Hudson Bay is expected to drag its associated
frontal boundaries through the Great Lakes today, developing a
surface low that drives through the St. Lawrence Valley tonight.
Southerly surface flow will pick up today ahead of this system,
drawing in milder air and producing highs in the 30s and lower
40s by this afternoon, warmest in Champlain and Connecticut
River valleys. The St. Lawrence Valley, however, should stick
to a northeasterly wind direction, keeping them from reaching
anything higher than the lower 30s all day. Precipitation is
likely to arrive there around 4-6 PM today, spreading from
southwest to northeast across the forecast area.

Freezing rain is then probable in the northern St. Lawrence
Valley, Adirondacks, Greens, and areas east and northeast of the
Greens through early tomorrow morning as warm air overruns
colder air trapped at the surface in these areas. Freezing rain
accumulations will be mostly up to 0.2" with some 0.3-0.4"
amounts possible in cold pockets of the Adirondacks and northern
Greens. Lows overnight are a little tricky as we`ve been
failing to cool off in many locations the past few nights, and
warm air will be abundant with the low pressure system. Lows
could fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s around dawn Sunday
morning, but most of the night temperatures may be mild and
above freezing, meaning areas that aren`t cold enough at the
surface for freezing rain will have mostly rain and very little
snow.

Tomorrow during the day, we expect low pressure to be moving
away from the area pulling cold air into the region from the
northwest. Highs will likely occur early in the day in the mid
30s to mid 40s followed by temperatures falling, allowing for
rain to change over to snow in all locations by tomorrow
afternoon. We`ll see most snow along northwestern slopes of the
mountains, totaling as much as 3 to 6 inches with 6 to 8 inches
possible at summits. Winds and cold air advection will be
increasing Sunday and Sunday night with gradients supporting
gusts to 20-40 mph in the Champlain Valley Sunday night and
gusts topping out 20-30 mph elsewhere. With lows forecast in the
upper teens to lower 30s Sunday night, this could result in
some single digit wind chills in the Adirondacks and teens/low
20s elsewhere as well as blowing snow on mountain passes. There
is the potential for at least another Winter Weather Advisory to
warn of the impacts following the system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 1258 AM EST Saturday...Upslope snow and gusty gradient
winds will likely continue on Monday as low pressure curls into
Atlantic Canada. An additional trace to 4 inches is possible
throughout the day with highs only reaching the 30s under the
cold Canadian air mass. Snow will likely decrease in coverage
and intensity throughout the course of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1258 AM EST Saturday...Still under the influence of the
Canadian Maritimes closed low at the start of this period
(Monday night) but this finally pulls Tuesday night with some
weak upper level and surface ridging across the area for
Wednesday through Thursday.

Thereafter, Four Corners system lifts toward central CONUS by Friday
with overrunning possible as early as late Thursday night-early
Friday morning. As upper level and surface reflection moves across
Oh Rvr Vly and Great Lakes on Friday will see increase in
precipitation chances. Initially, there is enough marginally cold
air for some mixed snow and rain late Thu night-early Friday but
storm track and southerly flow should keep things liquid for much of
Friday.

Based on latest trends...the above timing may be too fast and it
could be about 12+ hours later but no adjustments at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z Sunday...Blocked flow with lots of residual moisture
accounting for BKN011-025 across much of the Taf sites with SKC
at KMSS, although they had brief IFR with fog at times this
morning.

There may be some lift in the cigs today before advancing clouds
from our next system increase and lower with mixed wintry pcpn
arriving in NY 21-24z and generally aft 00z in VT.

Mvfr-IFR after onset of precipitation with best FZRA possible
at KMSS, KSLK, KMPV and KEFK. Winds light through the entire
period, 7 kt or less then increasing and shifting SW toward end
of the period.

Some llvl windshear tonight.


Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN,
Definite RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy
with gusts to 30 kt. Likely SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Sunday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Sunday for NYZ026-027-030-031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV