620
FXUS61 KBTV 120932
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
432 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Upslope snow showers will eventually taper off this afternoon and
evening, leading to a brief dry period lasting into tomorrow
morning. Strong winds will continue through today, resulting in
areas of poor visibility associated with blowing snow. A clipper
then brings snow showers for late Saturday and Sunday. The colder
and active pattern will continue for a few more days, with a few
additional chances for snow, though no big snowstorms are expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 143 AM EST Friday...Upslope snow showers are continuing across
the northern Greens and Adirondacks, and these will persist into the
day today. Model guidance has trended in keeping both the snow
showers and deeper moisture well into the day today, and now it may
not be until this evening that they finally taper off in the most
favored spots, notably around Jay Peak. Several more inches are
expected in parts of the northern Greens while accumulation`s will
be lighter across the Adirondacks. Strong winds are also
accompanying these snow showers, with gusts in the 20 to 35 mph
range. These will very gradually lighten up during the rest of
tonight and tomorrow. Despite the strong winds, there is no cold air
advection as modified marine air has been wrapping around the center
of the low situated over Atlantic Canada. The airmass is slightly
warmer over Quebec as warm Atlantic air has advected in off easterly
flow, despite slightly colder surface temperatures. This airmass is
also the source of the moisture providing the plentiful amounts of
upslope snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 143 AM EST Friday...Drier conditions should prevail tonight and
early tomorrow as subtle ridging builds in, but there will still be
large scale troughing, so clouds and winds will stick around. The
dry weather will not last long as another clipper moves down from
the northwest for later Saturday and Sunday. It will be weak and
moisture starved, but it should bring a few periods of light snow to
most areas. Southwesterly flow ahead of its passage will bring some
lake effect to St. Lawrence County, where a few inches are possible
in the most favored areas. There could be a few heavier convective
snow showers there as well. A very modified arctic airmass moves
into the region late Sunday. Some of the lingering Atlantic
heat/moisture, and heat from the unfrozen Hudson Bay and Great lakes
will keep temperatures much warmer here than over the Midwest.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 143 AM EST Friday...A significant pattern change is still
anticipated by mid to late next week, as mid/upper lvl trof is
replaced by building ridge and a much warmer Pacific airmass.
Initially much below normal temps prevail Sunday night thru Tuesday
associated with trof axis directly overhead and 1044mb high pres
centered over the MS River Valley. This produces a cold northerly
flow acrs our fa with progged 850mb temps dropping btwn -17C and
-20C on Sunday night, before slowly modifying Monday into Tues.
Given the position of the sfc high pres, expect gradient winds and
clouds, which should prevent temps from completely bottoming out.
However, if sfc high pres builds directly overhead on Monday night
and skies clear and winds become light trrn driven, with fresh snow
pack, temps wl be well below zero in many spots. Have continued with
high chc/likely pops on Sunday night into Monday associated with
favorable moisture/thermal profiles and wind direction for upslope
snow showers. Several inches of fluff is likely by midday Monday.
Highs are in the mid teens to mid 20s on Sunday, but only lower
teens to near 20F for Monday.
As sfc high pres shifts off the East Coast by 00z Weds, brisk
south/southwest flow develops at all layers of the atmosphere, as
sfc low pres is located near Hudson Bay. A series of warm frnt wl
lift acrs our region from late Tues thru Thursday with warming
thermal profiles. Initially snow showers wl be possible with each
boundary, but as 925mb to 850mb temps climb above 0C, a wintry mix
to rain is likely late Weds into Thurs. Given the deep/cold snow
pack, I have a feeling the cold air wl be stubborn to unlock east of
the Greens for Weds/Thurs time frame, even with strong southerly
flow and progged 925mb temps btwn 3C and 6C. Still plenty of
uncertainty on magnitude and duration of warmup for mid to late
week, with some guidance delaying or less aggressive than a few runs
ago. For now have stuck close to the NBM for temps and pops, which
support highs 30s on Weds and mid 30s to mid 40s by Thurs, with
coolest readings east of the Greens. In addition, some precip is
likely during this time frame with associated waa lift/moisture.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions prevail at
our taf sites this morning with periods of IFR vis in light snow
at MPV/SLK. Have a few more hours of potential IFR vis at these
sites before snow showers temporary dissipate. Expecting more
snow showers to redevelop toward 12z with intervals of IFR
conditions likely btwn 12z-16z. Eventually drier air advects
into our taf sites and conditions improve to MVFR cigs at
SLK/MPV and EFK with VFR at MSS/BTV/PBG and RUT. Also, gusty
west to northwest winds 15 to 25 knots continue today with winds
finally become light under 10 knots by sunset this evening.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will continue into the
day today. Sustained winds will generally range between 20-30
KTs, with higher gusts. The larger westerly component to the
winds will limit waves a bit, but they will still generally be
in the 1-4 foot range tonight. Winds eventually lower late
Friday into Friday night, dropping into the 5-15 KT range. This
will lower waves down to around 1 foot.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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