636
FXUS61 KBTV 020707
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
207 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 207 AM EST Monday...
Confidence in widespread and mixed precipitation types in the
Thursday night-Friday timeframe has increased.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 207 AM EST Monday...
1. Very cold temperatures this morning, especially high
elevations and much of the Adirondack region where wind chills
are below -20 F, which elevates the risk of hypothermia.
Slightly less cold later today through Tuesday morning.
2. A minor snowfall for Tuesday evening remains likely for
southern portions of the region. Greatest travel impacts will tend
to be higher elevation passes.
3. Confidence in widespread precipitation for the end of the
week continues to increase, along with the potential for a wintry
mix sometime in the Thursday/Friday timeframe.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 207 AM EST Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: So far the forecast for very cold conditions, especially
for early March (normal lows are in the teens), is playing out well
with ideal radiational cooling conditions and frigid air mass in
place. Mesoanalysis shows the center of high pressure actually
still to our west over southern Ontario/Eastern Great Lakes
region, which has helped maintain some west winds at higher
elevations and some more exposed mid-slope locations, which is
supporting wind chills more easily reaching Cold Weather
Advisory levels. Winds at 925 millibars between about 5 and 10
knots and at 850 millibar level 15 and 20 knots will persist
through the morning such that light winds will likely continue,
although sunny skies and a shift to light southwest winds will
help ease the cold, with even mountain summits possibly getting
wind chills back above -20 this afternoon.
High temperatures today will recover from the single digits and
teens below zero into the upper teens to mid 20s, and then drop
back off towards sunset. Near calm winds should help
temperatures fall quickly this evening, but then tonight enough
southwesterly flow should develop to somewhat reduce potential
for frigid temperatures, especially in the wider valleys. Cloud
cover also could disrupt temperatures as upstream in the west-
northwest flow some moisture will stream across our region,
although coverage of clouds looks fairly sparse and mainly thin.
At 6 AM, at the time of the "Blood Moon", sky cover is most
likely mainly clear, with greatest chances for some partial
cloud cover (unlikely to be opaque) at this time over
northeastern Vermont, northern Champlain and northern St.
Lawrence Valley.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A remnant frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley
will lift northward with a weak wave of low pressure,
intensifying as it passes to our south and east Tuesday night.
The track and timing of precipitation remains fairly consistent
amongst guidance, but with thermal profiles only marginally cold,
there is relatively low confidence on precipitation type being
mainly snow, particularly in Rutland County where westerly low
level flow will produce potentially large variations in snowfall
given terrain influences of both the Taconics and Greens. Will
note that the latest FV3, which brings in warmer air across
northern New York and Vermont with a changeover to rain as
precipitation winds down, is more consistent with some other
ensemble data in the NBM. Have stayed with mainly snow at this
time, but probabilistic data is a little more mixed, especially
in southern areas.
Precipitation amounts look modest in the 0.2" - 0.33" with
locally higher amounts, and with wet snow character snow to
liquid ratios near or a bit below 10:1 will limit snowfall
amounts. Although snowfall has trended upward a bit, given short
duration and relatively limited frontogenesis and surface
convergence, potential for more significant precipitation is
low. Also think that with the March sun angle and onset timing
of precipitation after temperatures rise above freezing, any
snow that begins during the evening commute will have trouble
accumulating on primary roads. Related to the expected upslope
with west-southwesterly flow and slightly colder temperatures,
there is strong consensus on the Green Mountain National Forest
seeing the most snowfall from this event, with a swath of 3 to 5
inches favored in this relatively localized area.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Overall, there have been no significant changes in the
forecast for the latter half of the week, though confidence that
we`ll see at least a couple rounds of precipitation has increased
somewhat. There`s some model consensus that after a mainly dry
Wednesday, our next round of precipitation arrives late
Thursday and continues into Friday as a wave of low pressure
rides along a frontal boundary positioned somewhere across
central/southern New England. The concern continues to be
precipitation type. Light east flow ahead of this system would
keep cold air locked in place east of the Greens and into the
northwestern Champlain Valley and northern St Lawrence Valleys.
Meanwhile, 850mb southwest flow would spread warm air over the
colder air at the surface, resulting in a period of wintry mix,
potentially freezing rain in the aforementioned areas. Longer
range and coarser resolution models/blends tend to over estimate
how quickly warming is able to take place in the sheltered
regions, but some of the deterministic guidance is indicating
the potential for cold air damming well into Friday,
particularly east of the Greens. Indeed, some areas may actually
be cold enough to see mostly snow rather than sleet/freezing
rain. Have stayed close to the NBM for now and tried to keep
precipitation type somewhat simple, but small changes in the
low`s track and/or amount of warming aloft and at the surface
will have significant impacts to precipitation type. Please make
sure to follow future forecast updates, especially if you`ll be
traveling later Thursday through Friday.
Regardless of the above uncertainty, it does still look like we
should see much warmer temperatures for the weekend. Another round
of precipitation is possible sometime through the weekend as well,
though this should be mostly rain. Temperatures are currently
expected to reach into the 40s and even 50s during the day, with
lows remaining above freezing. Total rainfall doesn`t look overly
concerning at this point, though that with snowmelt will result in
runoff into area rivers. An initial perusal of potential thawing
degree hours for Friday through Sunday shows a range of 400 to 800
hours, which could be enough to cause some river ice movement. While
widespread river ice breakup isn`t expected, we`ll continue to
monitor trends moving forward.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
entire TAF period under high pressure and clear to mostly clear
skies. Winds light and variable through the period, as well,
generally 3-7 kt or less.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance RA, Slight chance FZRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA,
Likely FZRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
FZRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for
NYZ029>031.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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