698
FXUS61 KBTV 030811
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
411 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...Many scattered showers are producing
thunder this morning, so chances of thunderstorms has increased.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...
1. A light wintry mix will continue this morning in the Green
Mountains and points east, with slick travel likely mainly above
1000 feet elevation and secondary roads.
2. Unseasonably warm conditions expected this afternoon. As the
warmup occurs, gusty south winds ranging from 30 to 45 MPH are
expected in much of northern New York and northern Vermont along
with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
3. Another storm system will bring widespread rain and
localized strong winds Saturday night into Sunday. Much cooler
conditions will filter into the region behind this system with a
chance for elevationally dependent snow showers.
4. Cooler and quieter stretch of weather expected from Monday
night through Wednesday night, then more showery with temperatures
closer to seasonal normals towards the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 411 AM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A fascinating precipitation type conundrum occurred
overnight with very moist and cold air near the ground supporting
light snow across much of central and eastern Vermont. As clouds
grow taller again with showers moving in from the west,
precipitation type should return to rain and thereby produce pockets
of freezing rain where temperatures are in the upper 20s to low
30s. It is a complex ice accretion scenario where convective
precipitation does not lend itself to efficient icing with
greater runoff, but temperatures early this morning have been on
the low side of model guidance so there is some room for slight
warming to still see at least a glaze of ice fall where these
showers track. Radar trends put most of these showers from
near Killington and points north. Temperatures have largely been
elevationally dependent with almost all sub-freezing locations
above 1000 feet, and especially 1500 feet, so risk of winter
weather impacts in the valleys is minimal. Conditions should
improve by 10 AM as the inversion height sharply lowers and
near surface temperatures slowly rise.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Showers with embedded thunder have been racing
east-northeastward on the nose of a strong 850 millibar jet,
supporting elevated instability and deep moisture transport.
The risk of thunder is expected to peter out as the morning
progresses with reduced MUCAPE. Will note the SPC HREF-
calibrated thunder risk was under 10% where we have seen thunder
early today, so it would not be surprising if showers continue
be capable of producing thunder through about 10 AM. After that
time, a punch of drier mid-level air will work its way into the
region taking a sledgehammer to the elevated CAPE. A few
afternoon/evening showers ahead of the system`s cold front will
be possible but look less substantial than this morning`s
activity; PoPs are largely 15 to 30% for this timeframe.
The main story aside from the thunderstorm risk will be the
gusty south winds. For the northern Champlain Valley these winds
will probably peak this morning, while increasing this afternoon
in the St. Lawrence Valley. While not particularly strong, gusts
will probably reach the 40 to 45 MPH range with a few instances
near 50 MPH near Lake Champlain. Other portions of northern
Vermont and the Adirondacks could also see 35 to 40 MPH gusts
through the afternoon ahead of the cold front, with post-frontal
winds tonight out of the west not as strong as low pressure
passing to our north is progged to weaken with time.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Forecast confidence remains high that widespread
rain will fall Saturday night into Sunday morning along a
stronger cold front. Less certain is the magnitude of winds with
the associated low level jet. Model soundings show a stout
inversion that would make it difficult to see much of the winds
aloft make it to the surface aside from mountaintops during this
period. Greatest risk for strong winds (some gusts near or above
50 MPH) would be in the north facing slopes of the Adirondacks
such as near Malone and Ellenburg. Rainfall remains fairly
moderate with only a narrow plume of anomalous moisture that
moves steadily towards the east. Strong surface convergence and
divergence aloft will promote a large area of rain that will
keep chances of rain going for a fairly long time (roughly 12 to
18 hours), but most of the event will feature light rain.
Behind the cold front as it passes Sunday afternoon, a wintry
pattern will set up with a deep upper trough building by Monday
morning. There are somewhat mixed signals on forcing for
precipitation so for now we are light on details. Overall, there
is potential for a combination of lake-effect and upslope snow
showers on Monday, which would mainly impact higher elevations
with boundary layer temperatures still a bit warm for snow in
the valleys.
KEY MESSAGE 4: High pressure will finally shift east from the
Great Lakes bringing an end to any lingering snow showers from
Monday night through Wednesday night. Temperatures will trend a
bit cooler than seasonal normals during this timeframe. High
temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s, with overnight lows
dipping into the 20s. With the high pressure, temperatures will
trend towards normal to above normal by mid to late week with
some showers chances by later next week. Surface high will get
suppressed to our south Thursday into Friday, and allowing next
chance for showers as a low passes north of the Great Lakes.
Maximum temperatures will be back up into the 50s on Thu and Fri
of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...LLWS will be the main aviation threat
this forecast period with some IFR/MVFR CIGs being the secondary
threat. A low level jet slowly moves through the region
overnight and Friday with 60kts in the 2000-5000ft layer
resulting in both speed and directional shear promoting
hazardous flying conditions. Otherwise, MVFR conditions
currently prevail across the region with ceilings generally
between 1400 and 2500 ft AGL. While rain showers are expected
across all terminals overnight, there is a small chance that
eastern Vermont terminals could see freezing rain, although the
chances are too small to include in the forecast. While winds
stay up aloft overnight, there is a decent chance of some IFR at
MPV/EFK/SLK. SFC winds will continue to strengthen throughout
the TAF period, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots possible before
speeds begin to taper down after 22Z.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
VTZ003-004-006>008-010-018>021.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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