997
FXUS61 KBTV 240824
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
424 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Daily shower chances will continue through Thursday, with the
greatest chances for thunderstorms this afternoon, especially across
northern New York. High pressure will build across the North Country
Friday and into the weekend, allowing for a return of dry weather
with temperatures warming to near 90s degrees in the valleys by
Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 423 AM EDT Wednesday...With the recent rainfall across the
region yesterday, areas of patchy fog and low stratus have developed
overnight. The fog across northern New York will erode towards
daybreak, although the stratus east of the Green Mountains looks to
linger throughout most of the morning. After a lull in precipitation
overnight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will return this
afternoon. The greatest chances for thunderstorms will be across
northern New York, with greater instability as well as the proximity
to better forcing as a pre-frontal trough pushes through during the
late afternoon. SPC has placed much of northern New York in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather on Wednesday given the potential
for isolated strong to severe storms developing. The primary threats
with any developing convection look to be localized damaging winds
and heavy rainfall. WPC also has an Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall across the forecast areas as well given the heavy rainfall
potential. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to low 80s
across northern New York and the Champlain Valley, but eastern
Vermont looks to warm into the mid 70s. Additional showers will be
possible heading into the overnight hours as the upper level trough
continues to push eastward, but chances for thunderstorms will be
low. Overnight low temperatures will be mild, generally in the 60s
with the Champlain Valley struggling to drop below 70.
Heading into Thursday, conditions continue to trend on the drier
side with some showers in the morning ahead of the cold front. With
the frontal passage occurring earlier in the day, the threat for
thunderstorms and heat rainfall continues to lessen, as the best
forcing and instability will not align. Behind this frontal
boundary, a drier and refreshing airmass will move into the region,
with dewpoints dropping into the 50s. Daytime high temperatures
during the day will warm into the mid 70s to low 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 423 AM EDT Wednesday...There will be some lingering light rain
showers Thursday night as surface trough and some upper level
shortwave energy move across our forecast area. Surface high
pressure will begin to ridge into our region on Friday and we`ll
have clearing skies during the day and a dry forecast for the day.
Low temperatures Thursday night will dip into the lower 50s to lower
60s with drier air moving into the region behind departing cold
front. With dry air in place on Friday also, high temperatures will
reach the lower 70s to lower 80s with lower RH values as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 423 AM EDT Wednesday...Surface and upper level ridging will
build into the area for the weekend. Dry weather is expected, but
along with upper level ridging comes warmer air and temperatures
will rise back above seasonal normals once again. Next chance for
showers and possibly thunderstorms will come Tuesday into Wednesday
as a surface and upper level trough will push across the area. At
this time looks like Burlington will have at least 2 days pushing 90
degrees, possibly 3 or 4 days. Will have to monitor potential for
heat headlines.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Showers have mostly ended tonight, with
some patchy fog and lower ceilings beginning to develop across
the region. KMPV, KSLK, and KRUT are the most likely terminals
to see overnight fog, especially towards 09Z, but other
terminals may see some brief patch mist or fog as well. Fog and low
ceilings will lift by 15Z, with the exception being eastern
Vermont, where ceilings will remain MVFR much of the day today. Winds
will be 5 to 10 knots, mainly southerly except easterly at MSS.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after 18Z,
resulting in some brief visibility reductions to IFR/MVFR
levels.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Duell/Kremer
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