463
FXUS61 KBTV 311739
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
139 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional rain will continue today as low pressure slowly spins
over the region. Winds will turn to the west and become gusty this
afternoon and overnight tonight. Colder air will spread in from west
to east later today into tonight, and anticipate rain showers will
mix with and eventually change over to snow across the higher
terrain tonight. Showers will gradually come to an end on Saturday,
lingering longest in the higher terrain, where a few inches of snow
accumulation will be possible, mainly above 1500 ft.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 201 AM EDT Friday...While winds have been fairly strong across
the higher terrain (gusts up to 60 mph on Mt Mansfield and 70 mph on
Whiteface), these haven`t quite made it down to lower elevations as
was expected. Gusts to 40 mph have been more common below 2000 ft,
and with the core of the low level jet exiting in the next hour or
so, would anticipate winds will perhaps hold steady for a bit before
subsiding through daybreak. We have noted an increase in reported
power outages in some of the mountain/western slope towns overnight,
though numbers have trended downward from their peak a few hours
ago. With that in mind, have gone ahead and cancelled the Wind
Advisory for the western slopes of the Green Mountains.
Vertically stacked low pressure is currently centered over western
NY early this morning with a weaker surface low developing along the
southern New England coast. The primary low will eventually give way
to the secondary low as it lifts through southern New England and
into NH/ME by this afternoon. Winds will lessen as we remain under a
relaxed pressure gradient, but as the low moves to our east and
deepens, we`ll once again see winds increase as the pressure
gradient tightens. This time flow will be from the west/northwest as
we`ll be on the backside of the low, so it will be the eastern
downslope sides of the Adirondacks and Greens that will see the
breeziest conditions. Gusts to 40 mph will be possible in these
locations later today and overnight, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph
expected elsewhere.
Periods of rain will continue through mid morning or so, then we
should see a brief break from the steadier rain. However, once winds
shift to the west, precipitation will fill back in, especially along
the western slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens, and back into the
eastern Champlain Valley and St Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will
start to fall in the meantime as cold air advection moves in on the
breezy winds. The higher terrain will be the first to see
temperatures drop close to freezing, allowing rain to mix with and
turn over to snow. Snow levels will continue to fall through the
evening and overnight hours, and expect areas above 1500 ft will see
at least a little of the white stuff by early Saturday morning. A
few inches of accumulation will be possible above 2000 ft. Highs
today will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s, though they`ll
likely be early across northern NY as colder air will start to move
in there this afternoon. Temperatures will only be in the mid 30s to
low 40s come evening time; when combined with the gusty winds, it`ll
feel more like mid 20s to mid 30s, so bundle up if you`ll be
outdoors. Continuing cold air advection will drop temperatures into
the 30s areawide tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 201 AM EDT Friday...Low pressure will continue to pull away to
our east on Saturday, keeping us under brisk northwest flow. Upslope
mountain showers will slowly wane through the day, with just a
little additional snow accumulation possible at summit level.
Continuing cold air advection will keep temperatures on the cold
side, and expect highs will only top out in the upper 30s to
mid/upper 40s, coldest in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom.
This colder trend will continue Saturday night with lows dipping
into the mid 20s to mid 30s. While Sunday will only be a few degrees
warmer than Saturday, winds will be much lighter and there should be
more sunshine, especially away from the Northeast Kingdom. Highs on
Sunday will be in the 40s to around 50F.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 118 PM EDT Friday...A cold frontal boundary will bring
increasing chances of precipitation as we progress through
Monday and Monday night, though associated pwats (up to 0.75
of an inch) look to be relatively low with this event compared
to the rain event we`re experiencing today, and dry air flows in
quickly behind the front on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Most
likely period of precipitation will be Monday afternoon through
the early overnight, about 75-95% chance of measurable
precipitation during this period. Monday`s mild highs in the
lower and mid 50s under southerly flow and broad warm air
advection should keep precip in the form of rain for most
outside of the highest peaks during the day, but at night temps
are expected to fall into the upper 20s to lower 40s as winds
turn westerly with snow levels reaching down to about 1800-2400
feet. Total precipitation expected Monday and Monday night is
about 0.10-0.50" with highest amounts in northern and high
terrain areas.
Following the cold front, the midweek should be seasonable but
trending cooler into the late week with highs starting in the
mid 40s to lower 50s becoming highs only in the 40s. Lows
should be in the 20s and 30s for much of the rest of the week. A
brief break in precipitation may occur Tuesday night-Wednesday
morning due to high pressure over the Southeast, but models
quickly bring in a quick clipper system for the latter half of
the week. While global deterministic models seem to agree on the
concept of the clipper, there remains a wide variety of
potential tracks and speeds for this late week precipitation.
Looks like another rain in the valleys with some snow mixing in
on the mountains event, about 65-85% chance of measurable
precipitation for most.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Deepening low pressure continues to
rotate and drift northeastward across the Northeast Kingdom and
southern Quebec this afternoon, bringing light to moderate rain
and drizzle to northern New York and Vermont. Ceilings are the
main dictator of flight category at the moment with ceilings
varying from 1100 to 3300 feet above ground level except at
KPBG, which has gone VFR with clouds at 7000 feet AGL as they
get shadowed by the Adirondacks in overall westerly flow.
We anticipate most VFR ceilings to lower again to MVFR by about
20Z-23Z Friday, with mostly MVFR conditions prevailing through
at earliest 12Z-15Z Saturday, potentially lasting through 18Z
Saturday under favorable northwesterly flow. Two sites to watch
out for IFR in particular are KMSS and KSLK which are likely to
have ceilings 700-1000 feet through 03Z-12Z Saturday. Winds out
of the southwest will continue, gusting 20-30 knots at times
throughout the next 24 hours and making a shift out of the
northwest tonight. LLWS will also continue to be a concern at
KSLK, KPBG, KMPV, KEFK, and KMSS through about 03Z-12Z with 40
to 50 knots northwest winds at 2000 feet AGL.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect from this afternoon through at
least tonight. While winds will be on the lighter side this
morning, they will increase out of the west to northwest this
afternoon and remain gusty overnight. Sustained winds of 15 to
25 kt with gusts to 30 kt late today will increase to 20 to 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt overnight. Waves of 1 to 2 feet will
build to 3 to 5 feet.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
MARINE...BTV
EQUIPMENT...BTV
|
