898
FXUS61 KBTV 240547
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
147 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily shower chances, with thunderstorm risk peaking Wednesday,
will continue through Thursday. Some thunderstorms may be of the
stronger variety Wednesday afternoon in northern New York. High
pressure will build across the North Country Friday and into
the weekend, allowing for a return of dry weather with
temperatures warming to near 90s degrees in the valleys by
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 132 AM EDT Wednesday...Most of the showers seen earlier in
the night have diminished across the region, with some patchy
fog beginning to develop across the region. Overall the current
forecast is in good shape with little changes needed this
update.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Pulse showers, driven by differential
heating and large scale lift south of a quasi- stationary front,
are scattered across southern portions of our northern New York
counties and in an arc across portions of central Vermont where
additional rain is not needed. Thankfully, as expected mid
level height rises have stifled convection to limit growth such
that so far no thunderstorms have developed. A non- zero chance
exists that an updraft can support a taller storm briefly, but
overall rain rates will be limited through tonight. As showers
gradually shift south and eastward, they should diminish quickly
after dark as they have been driven by surface instability.
While not explicitly in the forecast, areas of fog may develop
as the front lifts back north of the International Border
tonight and temperatures drop to near the dew point. A mixture
of stratus and fog is more likely along and east of the Green
Mountains as shallow southeasterly wind is expected to develop.

For tomorrow, a marginal (level 1) risk remains in effect for
northern New York from the Storm Prediction Center. An associated
risk of excessive rainfall will be present per the latest
Weather Prediction Center outlook. The forcing for organized
convection has continued to look favorable in our western areas
based on the track of a low pressure center to our west, which
will drag a pre-frontal trough into western New York during the
afternoon. That will be the focus for thunderstorms which should
advance north and eastward into northern New York by late
afternoon. Stronger cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts
and torrential rain, although instances of heavy rainfall should
be isolated with only mediocre ingredients for high rainfall
rates. As always, training of cells would support possible
instances of flash flooding but the risk is low at this time.
Again, while the focus in northern New York, some storms,
especially if this event moves through on the faster side, could
remain strong into the Champlain Valley and possibly farther
east. We`ll continue to watch trends to see if the convective
threat broadens. Highs temperatures and dew points will likely
be a few degrees warmer than today, helping to fuel the storms.

As the associated upper level trough continues tracking eastward
Wednesday night, additional showers will be possible, but with a
much lower thunderstorm potential. With abundant cloud cover and
southerly wind, it will be a mild night especially in the wide
valleys where temperatures will struggle to fall below 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 321 PM EDT Tuesday...Thursday has trended drier, with the
flooding threat continuing to trend down. A round of showers passes
through early in the morning associated with a prefrontal trough. It
looks to pass through early enough that diurnal heating will not be
able to destabilize the atmosphere enough to cause any significant
convection. Behind this prefrontal trough, instability will struggle
to develop and PWATs will fall quickly. With fast storm motion as
well, the threat for any flooding is low at this point. While there
will be adequate synoptic lift and deep layer wind shear for strong
storms, unfavorable atmospheric profiles and limited CAPE will keep
the threat of these storms low. However, they cannot be completely
ruled out at this point. This front ushers in a more refreshing
airmass as well. Dew points will fall into the 50s on Thursday and
temperatures Thursday night will fall into the 50s and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 321 PM EDT Tuesday...High pressure will remain in control for
much of this period and it will bring a long stretch of dry weather.
After the chance of a very isolated shower across some of the higher
elevations of Vermont on Friday, dry weather should prevail until
late late Monday at the earliest. While temperatures will start out
close to climatological normals on Friday and Saturday, they will
rise well above normal by the beginning of next week. Temperatures
look to make a run at 90 in the broad valleys starting Monday. NBM
probabilities of exceeding 90 in the valleys is generally between
50-70 percent. Humidity will also increase by then and dew points
look to reach the low to mid 60s. The heat and humidity will likely
increase a little more by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Showers have mostly ended tonight, with
some patchy fog and lower ceilings beginning to develop across
the region. KMPV, KSLK, and KRUT are the most likely terminals
to see overnight fog, especially towards 09Z, but other
terminals may see some brief patch mist or fog as well. Fog and low
ceilings will lift by 15Z, with the exception being eastern
Vermont, where ceilings will remain MVFR much of the day today. Winds
will be 5 to 10 knots, mainly southerly except easterly at MSS.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after 18Z,
resulting in some brief visibility reductions to IFR/MVFR
levels.


Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Duell/Kremer