000
FXUS61 KBTV 221114
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
714 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide us one more sunny, warm day today before
it shifts eastward, making way for a low pressure system to track
close to the forecast area this weekend. The system could produce
increased clouds and periods of rain with more isolated showers
potentially lingering into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 701 AM EDT Friday...No changes to the forecast as
everything is on track. Fog is at its peak as the sun rises,
but should burn off gradually throughout the morning.
Temperatures are anticipated to rise into the lower 70s today,
one last sunny day before clouds increase. Previous discussion
below:

Previous discussion...The high pressure that has been bringing
sunny, warm days and foggy, chilly nights will begin to progress
eastward today, but not before bringing us highs today in the
lower to mid 70s and mostly sunny skies. Later in the day, high
clouds will begin to overspread from south to north and continue
throughout tonight ahead of our next weather system. This
should allow for a slightly more mild night with lows in the 40s
to lower 50s. Tomorrow will be more seasonable with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. PoPs start to increase across
southern Vermont about 10-30% at most late in the day as rain
showers approach. More on that and our next weather system
below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 318 AM EDT Friday...Still a lot of uncertainty for Saturday
night into Sunday based on track of Potential Tropical Cyclone
Sixteen. Not a lot of model agreement on how far north the storm
will track, which will play a big part in whether we will see some
rain for southern Vermont or not. Latest model runs of NAM and GFS
keep the precipitation shunted to our south. ECMWF and Canadian both
bring some precipitation into parts of southern and central Vermont.
For now have gone with a chance of showers across our southern
zones, especially Rutland and Windsor counties. Expect some changes
in the forecast as we get closer and track becomes more clear. At
present time, looks like we could see around a half an inch of
rainfall in southern Rutland and Windsor counties from later in the
day Saturday through early Monday. These rainfall totals would not
be impactful for our region. Temperatures will be close to seasonal
normals during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 318 AM EDT Friday...Chance for showers associated with coastal
system will come to an end by Monday afternoon. From Monday night
through Friday we will have an extended period of dry weather as
high pressure settles over the region out of Canada. Daytime maximum
temperatures will be close to seasonal normals while the overnights
will be on the cool side with some radiational cooling conditions
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Fog is at its peak this morning, flooding
the river valleys with IFR vis and cigs. Similar to last night,
MPV and SLK will hold onto their fog the longest while other
sites should bounce right back to VFR fairly quickly. Then,
generally light southerly winds expected today with fair
weather cumulus dotting the sky. Fog tonight is looking less
certain than this past night with the high pressure departing
and as winds and cloud cover increase ahead of an approaching
coastal low.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Storm