354
FXUS61 KBTV 111725
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
125 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool, dry conditions are expected tonight with potential for valley
fog under high pressure and behind the passage of a cold front.
Temperatures in the 30s in the Northeast Kingdom may result in frost
formation. An upper level disturbance will bring some cloud cover
across the region Saturday and Saturday night. Even then, rain
appears likely to be hit or miss and unlikely to bring needed rain.
Dry conditions will prevail for the remainder of the period with
warming temperatures for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 123 PM EDT Thursday...High pressure building in behind today`s
cold front will continue dry and cool conditions tonight. As skies
clear, we`ll see a quick drop in temperatures below seasonal
averages due to radiational cooling, and lows are forecast to be in
the 30s and 40s. Coldest temperatures will be across the Northeast
Kingdom and localized parts of the Adirondacks where some frost may
develop early tomorrow morning. Patchy valley fog is also possible
again tonight, though being another day removed from rain will limit
the potential slightly. Best time for fog development will be close
to dawn tomorrow morning as high pressure builds in from the north
and winds aloft calm.
High pressure will persist tomorrow, resulting in light and variable
winds and highs struggling to reach the upper 60s to mid 70s despite
plenty of sunshine. Dry air at mid levels is expected to mix down to
the surface in the afternoon, producing dry dew points in the 40s.
High clouds will likely increase later tomorrow into Friday night as
an upper level shortwave crosses the region, but surface high
pressure is expected to keep weather dry and quiet with perhaps some
virga. The extra cloud cover will keep lows in the upper 30s to
lower 50s, warmer than previous nights but still slightly below
seasonal normals. Patchy valley fog is possible again Friday night,
mainly for the Connecticut River Valley as it sits farthest east
from the approaching cloud layer.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 123 PM EDT Thursday...An open wave surface trough is likely to
approach the forecast area on Saturday, bringing increased clouds
and a slight chance of precipitation (10-30%) to northern New York
and the Green Mountains by the end of the day. Deterministic models
continue to diverge on the timing and location of atmospheric
features that will determine the weather Saturday, but the current
trend and forecast thinking is that we`ll be mostly dry Saturday
with a few showers and virga here and there, and temperatures will
be able to climb into a seasonable lower and mid 70s.
Saturday night continues to host a variety of solutions as the GFS
and Canadian models hold onto surface high pressure longer while the
ECMWF and high resolution models want to swing a surface frontal
system through the region, bringing showery precipitation. Kept
chances for measurable precipitation at 10-40% throughout the night
as we could see a few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm
associated with this feature, modest moisture, and northwesterly
flow, but confidence of widespread wetting rainfall is low. Low
temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s Saturday
night, which is right around seasonable for mid September.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 159 AM EDT Thursday...Trends in the 00Z NWP guidance are
towards an open trough passage Saturday night through Sunday as
compared to previous runs which closed the system off. This in turn,
combined with very dry antecedent conditions leads the forecast to
point towards lower chances for precipitation for the period, but
given some moisture, northwest flow, and a strong mid-level
shortwave, there`s still a good chance for some scattered showers so
will maintain chance PoPs for the period. After that for next week,
we`re back under surface high pressure and a building upper ridge,
so drought conditions will continue. Temps continue below normal
through the weekend with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and lows
40s/50s, but trend warmer to normal or slightly above by mid-week
with highs solidly in the mid/upper 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Outside of periods of LIFR at KSLK/KMPV
from 06-12Z Friday, VFR conditions will prevail across the
region over the next 24 hours. A dry cold front will bring a
SCT-BKN mid-level deck through the area from north to south
through the day, becoming SKC again by 00Z. Light winds
overnight trend northerly by daybreak and increase through the
morning to 8-12kts with some isolated gusts up to 18kts in the
afternoon. After 00Z, winds return to nearly calm except locally
SE at 7kts at KRUT.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for VTZ004.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Lahiff
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