000
FXUS61 KBTV 220718
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
318 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide us one more sunny, warm day today before
it shifts eastward, making way for a low pressure system to track
close to the forecast area this weekend. The system could produce
increased clouds and periods of rain with more isolated showers
potentially lingering into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 318 AM EDT Friday...The high pressure that has been bringing
sunny, warm days and foggy, chilly nights will begin to progress
eastward today, but not before bringing us highs today in the lower
to mid 70s and mostly sunny skies. Later in the day, high clouds
will begin to overspread from south to north and continue throughout
tonight ahead of our next weather system. This should allow for a
slightly more mild night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Tomorrow
will be more seasonable with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
PoPs start to increase across southern Vermont about 10-30% at most
late in the day as rain showers approach. More on that and our next
weather system below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 318 AM EDT Friday...Still a lot of uncertainty for Saturday
night into Sunday based on track of Potential Tropical Cyclone
Sixteen. Not a lot of model agreement on how far north the storm
will track, which will play a big part in whether we will see some
rain for southern Vermont or not. Latest model runs of NAM and GFS
keep the precipitation shunted to our south. ECMWF and Canadian both
bring some precipitation into parts of southern and central Vermont.
For now have gone with a chance of showers across our southern
zones, especially Rutland and Windsor counties. Expect some changes
in the forecast as we get closer and track becomes more clear. At
present time, looks like we could see around a half an inch of
rainfall in southern Rutland and Windsor counties from later in the
day Saturday through early Monday. These rainfall totals would not
be impactful for our region. Temperatures will be close to seasonal
normals during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 318 AM EDT Friday...Chance for showers associated with coastal
system will come to an end by Monday afternoon. From Monday night
through Friday we will have an extended period of dry weather as
high pressure settles over the region out of Canada. Daytime maximum
temperatures will be close to seasonal normals while the overnights
will be on the cool side with some radiational cooling conditions
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Fog is developing quickly across the
forecast area, namely in the typical river valley locations. Our
classic foggiest TAF sites, MPV and SLK, have gone down to LIFR
and are expected to stay there until around 13 or 14Z Friday.
They are bouncing around slightly, but should for the most part
have IFR cigs and/or vis for the rest of the night. EFK and MSS
seem to be bouncing more drastically between categories, and
thinking that a tempo group will be best to portray the way this
continues for the remainder of the night. RUT went down last
night, but tonight the drainage winds look to remain elevated
about 5-10 knots out of the southeast, which will likely keep
RUT VFR tonight, especially as it gets another day removed from
any rainfall. BTV and PBG should remain VFR as well again
tonight, but it is not out of the question that BTV could have
some briefly lower vis due to fog in the Winooski Valley
trickling toward the airport with light easterly winds.
Tomorrow, some light winds out of the southeast are expected at
all sites with few fair weather cumulus clouds dotting the sky
as high clouds overspread from south to north from a system in
the Mid Atlantic region.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Storm