007
FXUS61 KBTV 191804
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
204 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A Red Flag Warning has been issues for portions of Vermont and
northern New York for gusty southerly winds and low humidity
values. Temperatures will warm well into the 70s on Sunday with
developing south winds 15 to 30 mph. Northern slopes of the
Adirondacks along Route 11 may experience gusts to 40 mph. A
developing area of low pressure will produce a widespread
wetting rainfall late Sunday night through Monday across the
entire region. Gusty winds will develop over western slopes of
the Greens at 35 to 50 mph, which may result in downed trees
branches and isolated power outages. Cooler and unsettled
weather prevails most of this upcoming work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 849 AM EDT Sunday...Quick update to hoist wind advisory
across the northern slopes of the Dacks from near Malone to
Ellenburg Depot to Altona for gusts 45 to 55 mph this aftn and
evening. The core of the strongest winds are expected between 5
PM and 10 PM this evening associated with 925mb jet of 50 to 55
knots. Latest HRRR and RAP sounding data at Malone suggests the
potential for good mixing thru 925mb to help momentum transfer
of these winds toward the sfc. A sharp cutoff on gusty winds
will be expected across extreme northern Franklin County near
Bombay to North Burke area. Otherwise, rest of fcst in good
shape this morning. A few power outages are possible and given
the extremely dry fine fuels, if sparks occur the potential for
new fire starts are possible.

Previous discussion below:
Combing through the latest information, some downslope warming
is already being noted in the parts of the St. Lawrence Valley,
and the Vermont side of the Champlain Valley has had poor
humidity recoveries. Noting similar trends to earlier data.
Thinking the St. Lawrence Valley appears to have the greatest
likelihood to reach thresholds, while northern Vermont remains
somewhat conditions. The breakup for the Champlain Valley is
that the winds will be present, but RHs may struggle to fall
below 35. In north-central Vermont, RHs appear more likely to
get into the lower 30s, but the wind gusts may not materialize
until later. Tried to fine tune things in the forecast data to
highlight these features.

For today, fire weather concerns remain to primary concern.
Assessing forecast trends, 10th percentile dewpoints have
trended upwards. The potential for relative humidity values
falling below 30 percent seems to have decreased somewhat. Even
taking into account the 90th percentile for temperatures across
parts of northern New York and Vermont into the process, this
did not result in such occurring. Additionally, outside the
Champlain Valley, the core of a strengthening 850mb jet does not
arrive until late in the day, and so parts of south-central and
eastern Vermont will be less likely to observe gusts greater
than 25 mph. However, portions of central Vermont and the
Northeast Kingdom will remain embedded within a relatively drier
air mass, and the Champlain Valley across Vermont has had poor
recoveries tonight with the stronger flow, and it will have
stronger gusts. Across New York, portions of the St. Lawrence
Valley may approach 80, and this still pushes relative humidity
quite close to 30 percent. So these regions have been upgraded
to a Red Flag Warning. Debris burn bans remain across Vermont.
Even outside the RFW, a special weather statement has been
posted given the strength of gusts, ongoing drought, and leaf
litter that will lead to increased fire weather potential.
Additional review of data will likely be done as we monitor
forecast trends.

Overnight, the core of a 55 to 65 knots 850mb jet will lift
across the region. Rain will likely already be arriving in
northern New York, and the core of the strongest winds appears
to focus across Vermont. So for now, a Wind Advisory has been
posted across western slopes of the northern Greens from 2 AM to
11 AM. Farther south, the mixing potential and intensity of
mid-level winds appears less likely. For towns like Bristol,
Underhill, Cambridge/Jeffersonville, and Enosburg, wind gusts up
to 50 mph will be possible. The potential for utility impacts
will be somewhat elevated through any remaining foliage, and so
isolated power outages are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 159 AM EDT Sunday...Beneficial rain will shift east during
the day Monday. High resolution CAPE values upwards of 500-750
J/kg, upper divergence in an increasingly negative tilt trough,
and convergence along a developing surface low will push a
wetting rain of about 0.50-1.50" across the region. There will
likely be some locally higher totals in parts of the Adirondacks
and eastern slopes of the southern Greens, and there will be
locally lower totals in the Northeast Kingdom due to substantial
terrain shadowing. Gusty winds will remain, but precipitation
and decreasing pressure gradients as the surface low approaches
will take the edge off the worst of the winds with 10 to 20 mph
gusts lingering. With rain and clouds, temperatures will likely
settle into the upper 50s to upper 60s as flow generally remains
south.

By Tuesday, the surface low will begin to move north of the
international border. Modest wrap around of moisture and some
lake effect activity will maintain showers overnight into the
day, especially over northern New York. South to southwest winds
will be a more manageable 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph. A
cooler night in the mid 30s to upper 40s and daytime highs on
Tuesday in the mid 50s to lower 60s is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 203 PM EDT Sunday...A large occluding upper low will continue
to nudge into the region from the Great Lakes Wednesday with a
strong stream of energy connected into the Atlantic enhancing
moisture advection. As the system occludes, a vort max will
swing eastward downstream leading to convergence and
cyclogenesis along the Connecticut River Valley spurring the
development of a triple point low. Resurgence of moisture and
precipitation looks increasingly favorable across eastern
Vermont and especially the Northeast Kingdom Wednesday night
into Thursday. However, trends have been to push the main axis
of moisture advection into New Hampshire which may limit the
heavier rainfall rates for Vermont. As this developing low
departs off to the northeast on Thursday, cyclonic flow from
occluding upper low will remain with cyclonic flow and continued
precipitation chances through the end of the week. Scattered
showers, mainly confined to northern New York and the higher
terrain will be the main precipitation chances through the end
of the week. Locations closer to Lake Ontario in St. Lawrence
County could be under the influence of Lake effect rain and
clouds Thursday and Thursday afternoon with southwesterly flow.

The 540dam thickness line behind the upper low should be able to
swing southward over northern New York with the strong occlusion
that the system will undergo. 925mb temperatures show near to sub
freezing values which would indicate possible snow across the
mountain summits with cyclonic flow lingering into Thursday/Friday.
Model soundings suggest the freezing level could be as low as 1500
ft, however, with surface temperatures not able to cool off as
efficiently, snow levels will likely reside at 2500 ft or higher.
Which is to say, precipitation in the form of wet snow atop mountain
summits is increasingly favorable by the end of the week.

All in all, beneficial rain up to half an inch, limited to the
progressive nature of the systems, will help to stabilize many
drought stricken areas. Although, it does not look to be enough to
lead to any drought improvement. Temperatures will be fairly close
to climatological norms in the 50s during the day with a range of
lows in the upper 20s to lower 40s throughout the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing
through the next 12 hours. The main terminal impacts this afternoon
and evening will be continued strong gusty winds from the southeast
associated with an approaching low pressure system. Winds 10 to 15
knots with gusts as high as 30 to 35 knots will continue well into
the afternoon and evening at all sites. Winds will be highest across
SLK/PBG/BTV this afternoon and evening, and shift eastwards with the
highest winds at BTV/MPV/EFK/RUT for tomorrow morning and early
afternoon. Observations have shown periods of brief calm winds
between gusts which may lead to moderate turbulence near the
surface. This is confirmed by pilot PIREP reports. Furthermore, as
the afternoon progresses a strong low-level jet with winds near 50
to 60 knots at 2000ft agl will push further into the region leading
to widespread LLWS at all sites overnight. LLWS will weaken as
precipitation arrives tomorrow. Precipitation will arrive from
southwest to northeast as an initial band by 09Z at RUT/SLK/MSS, and
by 14Z at EFK. Confidence is moderate for rainfall rates to be heavy
enough to lead to prevailing 4SM MVFR visibilities as the band moves
across the region. Behind the band, more scattered and lighter
showers will persist through the remainder of the TAF period.
Ceilings will quickly lower as the rain band pushes through with
1500-2500ft agl cigs likely at all terminals, with moderate
confidence in lower ceilings to 900-1300ft agl at SLK/MPV by early
afternoon tomorrow.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of northern New
York and Vermont this afternoon into the evening for gusty
winds and low humidities. Our region continues in a severe to
extreme drought with near surface soil moisture in the 1% to 5%
ranking, as 30 to 60 day precip is 25% to 50% of normal. These
extremely dry conditions have caused fine and cured 1 and 10
hour fuels to become very dry and receptive to carrying fire per
coordination with our fire weather partners. Meanwhile, min
humidities in the 30% to 40% range and developing gusty
southerly winds of 20 to 30 mph, locally 35 to 40 mph near Route
11 are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening. If any fires
were to start the weather and fuel conditions could cause fires
to quickly get out of control and be difficult to contain.

Trends in data suggest that dewpoints may not fall as far as
previously forecasted. The worst case scenario has seen values
increase, and high resolution guidance known for being
aggressive in mixing dry air from aloft to the ground are
notably less so. With the potential for somewhat higher relative
humidities, the Champlain Valley in New York and south-central
Vermont, which has also seen higher rain recently, has been
transitioned to a special weather statement. This area will
still have increased fire weather potential, though, with 15 to
25 mph gusts, locally to 30 and relative humidity values ranging
33 to 48 percent.

For more information about the current fire danger rating, any burn
restrictions, and wildfire prevention and education, please visit
your state forestry or environmental protection website. Remember, a
debris burn ban is in effect for all of Vermont which means no
open burning of debris is allowed.

&&

.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory will be remain in effect tonight for
developing south winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots
possible. Wave will be building 2 to 4 feet with higher swells
possible in the open waters.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for VTZ030>032.
     Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for VTZ016>018.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ202.
     Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for NYZ027-028-030-031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Taber
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
FIRE WEATHER...BTV
MARINE...BTV
EQUIPMENT...BTV