166
FXUS61 KBTV 172315
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
715 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will moderate a few degrees through the week and
weekend with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60s by
Sunday. Dry weather will continue through early next week with the
next chance of rain not until next Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 702 PM EDT Thursday...No changes at all for this update.
Previous discussion follows.
It`s not too common we can say this but there isn`t a single
cloud in the sky across our forecast area this afternoon. A
plethora of dry air has moved into the region as deep layer
ridging has been building across the region. Increasing
subsidence has been working against the colder air aloft
(steeper lapse rates) and has even kept the fair weather cumulus
at bay. Temperatures will plummet tonight following sunset with
light winds and clear skies expected across the region.
Widespread frost is likely across the Champlain Valley so we
have gone ahead and issued another frost advisory based on
climatology and an experiment we are currently participating in.
Patchy dense fog is also expected throughout the Winooski and
Connecticut River Valley tonight between midnight and 10 AM.
Gusty winds up to 20 mph are possible along and near Lake
Champlain tonight as we should have deep mixing as a week low
level jet moves overhead. Tuesday will be another fantastic day
across the region with high temperatures 5 or so degrees warmer
than those observed today with plentiful sunshine and light
winds. Warmer temperatures Tuesday night will limit any frost to
the colder areas of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EDT Thursday...After some frost Saturday morning,
amplification of the ridge will favor temperatures rising further
resulting in decreasing freezing/frost chances for broader valleys
through much of next week. Colder hollows in the Adirondacks and
northeastern Vermont will likely still see some freezes at least
through the weekend. Otherwise, dry conditions with high
temperatures climbing into the 60s are expected for Saturday. Lows
will range in the 30s for most locations with upper 30s/low 40s for
the northern Champlain Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 323 PM EDT Thursday...There is a strong consensus that upper
level ridging will remain firmly in control of the weather pattern
through Tuesday night. Highs will likely warm each day by a degree
or two increasing into the mid/upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
Likewise, lows will marginally increase each day (generally 40s to
low 50s), but we`ll have to see how much drying occurs heading into
next week to get a better sense of how far lows will cool off each
night. For now, kept closer to blended model guidance, but it`s
feasible the actual temperatures run several degrees lower as RH
decreases each day. Model variability in the pattern begins to
spread Wednesday into Thursday with potential for a frontal passage.
While there is disagreement, models do agree that the parent low
will be displaced northward. This pattern would favor a weaker
surface frontal passage with upper level support weakening as the
low moves northward. With a frontal passage, a sharp cool down would
be probable. At this time scale, however, it`s possible that ridging
holds on a day longer.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z friDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z saturday...A relatively quiet period of weather is
expected for this TAF cycle with VFR conditions coupled with
light and variable winds prevailing through the period. A brief
period of IFR to VLIFR fog will be possible at KMPV, KSLK, KMSS
and KEFK between 06Z and 14Z.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for VTZ002-005-009.
NY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Clay/Neiles
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