008
FXUS61 KBTV 051415
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1015 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and unsettled weather continues for the first half of the week
with additional showers likely and temperatures slightly below
normal. The highest probability of precipitation and heaviest
rainfall amounts today will be across Rutland and Windsor counties.
Localized amounts greater than 1 inch are possible. Very little
rainfall is expected near the international border. Temperatures
will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s today.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1007 AM EDT Monday...Our low is still sitting over the
Ohio Valley, with scattered light showers moving across south-
central Vermont and portions of the northern Adirondacks. Based
on observations, QPF is on the lower side this morning, so
trimmed back QPF and PoP chances through the afternoon today,
however, more widespread heavier rain is still expected
overnight in southern and central Vermont. Drier air is also a
bit stronger across the northern regions of the area, so have
adjusted dew points down a few degrees for the immediate near
term, but moisture should return by the afternoon with a more
humid air mass.
Previous discussion...Showers continue to saturate the southern
half of Vermont this morning as a stationary front and axis of
rich moisture sit across southern New England. The moisture axis
is projected to shift northward throughout the day today as
flow picks up out of the southeast, advecting in air from over
the Atlantic Ocean. In fact, we`re expecting a southeasterly low
level jet to develop overhead with winds at the 850mb
potentially reaching around 45 knots. While much of the
atmosphere below 700mb will be saturated, high resolution models
are indicating there will be some near-surface mixing to allow
for some gusts to reach the surface, notably downsloping areas
where slopes face the west or northwest. This downsloping could
also produce shadowing in terms of precipitation, resulting in
less wet weather in these areas throughout the day. Additional
rain shower precipitation will be focused on southwestern
forecast areas with up to a quarter inch possible. Temperatures
will be warmest in northern areas that don`t receive as much
precipitation with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Otherwise,
rainier spots will have highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Moisture will continue to flow into the forecast area tonight with
the potential for showers expanding to the northern reaches of the
forecast area. Most likely spot for rain will continue to be
southern Vermont, Essex County, New York, and southeasterly upslope
slopes, though some precipitation is also likely elsewhere,
including along the international border. Additional rainfall
amounts will be about 0.01-0.30" with highest amounts in southern
zones and lowest in the Northeast Kingdom. The low level jet will
continue to strengthen, potentially kicking up 850mb level winds up
to 55 knots. Due to this, we continue to forecast downsloping winds
and shadowing on western and northwestern slopes tonight. However, a
low level inversion should prevent gusts from mixing down much at
lower elevations. Areas that become warmer today will hold onto some
of that warmth tonight in the lower to mid 50s, otherwise we could
have temps dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Low pressure will begin to shift towards the forecast area from the
Ohio Valley tomorrow, bringing additional frontal forcing and
triggering more showers and potentially a few rumbles of thunder.
Highest chance of thunderstorms will be in northern New York,
particularly the St. Lawrence Valley, where an arm of instability
could reach up to and where temperatures could soar as high as the
lower 70s. Elsewhere, temperatures will only reach the upper 50s to
upper 60s, staying coolest east of the Greens. The axis of moisture
powering showers will likely shift to our east, mainly impacting New
Hampshire while a more thundery line of precipitation approaches
from New York. The central and northern portions of the forecast
area will actually fall into a drier period, though passing showers
are still expected. An additional 0.05-0.40" is anticipated, with
highest amounts falling across the Connecticut River Valley into
southern and central Vermont, as well as St. Lawrence County. The
low level jet will also begin to pull away from the forecast area,
though surface southeasterly flow should remain breezy for much of
the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 AM EDT Monday...The persistent upper low will get
reintegrated into the large scale flow. As it lifts northeastwards,
cooling aloft will help produce marginal destabilization. Some
scattered activity will propagate north as the surface low reaches
the St. Lawrence Valley in tandem with a lead vort max while morning
temperatures range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. The bulk of
precipitation will develop once the upper low is overhead and a
surface cold front behind the weak low then near Quebec City will
send southeastwards. Strong surface convergence along the front and
temperatures to about 70 yielding roughly 500 J/kg of CAPE Wednesday
afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated to be garden variety due to
light flow with shear generally less than 20 knots. With PWATs near
to just over an inch, a few could produce locally heavy rainfall.
Despite the loss of diurnally driven instability, showers should
continue overnight as a sharp trough digs southeast while moisture
wraps around the departing upper low. Increasingly northwest flow
should favor our northern mountains with orographic enhancement. A
cooler night in the upper 30s to upper 40s is forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 324 AM EDT Monday...Well, forecast trends have continued
steadily adjusting the replacement upper low to the west with
ensemble mean 500mb heights now onshore as opposed to the Gulf of
Maine. The main implication is that there will be increased cloud
cover. From the perspective of frost, this decreases the likelihood
of its occurrence. However, the proximity of the upper low brings
rain into the forecast for another Friday/Saturday. Recall we`ve
been pointing out the NBM`s 10-20% chance of precipitation was
comfortably below climo probability of precipitation averages. The
NBM has now bumped up to 25-40% and long range ensemble guidance has
crept up to 40-60%. Rain will come from surface low pressure
developing to the east of the upper low and curling up the East
Coast. Analysis of ensemble clusters indicates the 500mb low could
be located in a wide number of locations. So how much and how
widespread the precipitation will be depends on the track of this
upper level feature.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Showers continue for RUT, and low clouds
are persistent over MPV this morning. Chances of showers will
decrease for southern Vermont/RUT throughout the day today,
though visibilities in showers are generally 4 miles or higher.
Even between showers we can expect ceilings to be 3000 feet
above ground level or lower for the next 24 hours at RUT as they
remain close to the axis of moisture. MPV`s ceilings will hover
around 200-1400 feet this morning, eventually increasing above
3000 feet by about 21Z today, though this likely won`t last as
another round of moisture and at some point showers rolls into
Vermont tonight to bring ceilings back down to MVFR levels or
lower.
Other sites can expect on and off scattered showers as well with
vis 4+ miles as well as ceilings hovering around 3000 feet,
which would have them bounce between VFR and MVFR conditions for
much of the next 24 hours as thick moisture continues to stream
across northern New York and Vermont. Most sites could have a
few hours in the afternoon similar to MPV where cigs become
solidly VFR, but this may be similarly short lived. Winds will
be turning southeasterly today about 5-10 knots except at RUT,
which we expect could have some downsloping wind gusts due to
the southeasterly wind direction. Gusts could be about 20-25
knots. A low level jet will also develop overhead this
afternoon, resulting in the potential for low level wind shear
at all sites from 17Z-06Z onward, starting first at RUT and
spreading north.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Danzig/Storm
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Storm
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