945
FXUS61 KBTV 091733
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
133 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 226 AM EDT Sunday...

Precipitation chances across south-central Vermont have
increased this morning with an area of showers tracking through
from west to east.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 236 AM EDT Sunday...
1. After a few showers this morning, drier conditions return
this afternoon through early Monday.

2. Shower and thunderstorm chances return later Monday through
early Tuesday as a weak front moves through the region.

3. Unsettled weather continues for the latter half of the week
ahead, with temperatures trending slightly below normal by the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 236 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers are tracking across the southern
Adirondacks into south-central Vermont this hour and will
continue to move through over the morning hours. While a rumble
of thunder cannot be completely ruled out. Another area of
instability is moving through southern Canada towards the
border. Isolated to scattered showers are possible in this area
through the morning with a few thunderstorms possible by noon.
Coverage will be decreasing by mid-afternoon with drier
conditions moving into the region through Monday. Temperatures
will again be warm today, but a degree or so cooler than
yesterday with highs in the mid/upper 70s to low/mid 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A front will approach late Monday bringing more
widespread chances of showers and thunderstorms. However, flow
aloft will be increasingly zonal resulting in weaker surface
features and less forcing along the boundary. So, strong storms
are not very likely. Winds behind the front will align with Lake
Champlain supporting rough lake conditions late Monday into
Tuesday. Another dry period is likely Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday with temperatures and RH continuing to slowly
decrease. Highs around 80 degrees with dew points in the 50s
will feel like a treat compared to recent muggy conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Unsettled weather is expected to continue through the
second half of next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms
and an overall trend towards cooler temperatures towards the
weekend. Zonal flow across the region will allow for several quick
shortwaves to move through, bringing chances for showers although
the progressive flow will limit hydro concerns. As of now, Thursday
looks to be the day with the greatest chances for showers, with some
possible thunderstorms in the afternoon. Of course, the timing of
any of these shortwaves and shower chances may chance as we get
closer. Looking towards the end of the week, the upper-level flow
will amplify as ridging builds over the western US with downstream
troughing over the eastern US/Canada. The cyclonic flow over the
northeastern US will favor a continuation of scattered showers with
slightly below normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions will continue through the
TAF periods for most sites with the exception of KMPV and KEFK
where periods of MVFR, IFR, and VLIFR fog are expected overnight
tonight. Given the trends from this morning, it likely won`t be
until 13Z that fog is finally able to mix out with VFR
conditions returning at these sites thereafter. Winds will be
gusty at times out of the west with gusts likely no higher than
20 knots with winds going calm/light and variable overnight.
Winds will shift to the south after daybreak tomorrow with some
10-15 knots winds possible through the day on Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Boyd
AVIATION...Clay