672
FXUS61 KBTV 051833
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
233 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 216 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 216 PM EDT Monday...

1. Breezes continue through the night into Tuesday with dry air
moving into the region. Areas of frost are expected mainly
outside the Champlain Valley Tuesday night.

2. Seasonable temperatures and periodic chances of light rain
showers are expected for the latter half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 216 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered showers will continue
behind the front this afternoon into the evening. Once the sun
sets, shower chances decrease with drier air working into the
region. Through the night into Tuesday, northwesterly breezes
will continue and slowly decrease. As such, the Lake Wind
Advisory will continue into the evening hours. Gusts 20-30 mph
can be expected in the Champlain Valley, especially for
locations adjacent to Lake Champlain, into early Tuesday before
slowly decreasing. Dry air aloft is evident in soundings and
will lower to the surface as temperatures warm into the 50s
resulting in lower than usual RH for these temperatures. The
gradient weakens further Tuesday night with weak ridging
cresting. This will support areas of frost, especially outside
the Champlain Valley, as temperatures drop into the low/mid 30s
for most valleys, except 20s to low 30s in the Adirondacks and
northeastern Vermont.

The next wave approaches Wednesday with winds increasing again
and turning out of the south. The primary wave will be displaced
towards the James Bay, so best chances of showers will remain
nearer to the Canadian border. Models favor stalling the parent
low resulting in continued chances into Thursday as subsequent
waves pinwheel around the low. Current guidance points to
temperatures warming into the mid 60s Thursday supporting some
isolated thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon. Still, no
large amounts of rain are expected with totals generally staying
less then 0.25".


KEY MESSAGE 2: Heading towards the end of the week, seasonably cool
conditions and periodic showers are expected. Daytime high
temperatures will climb into the 50s to low 60s, with overnight lows
in the 30s to mid 40s. An upper low to our north will allow for
periods of showers throughout this week, especially across the
higher terrain and locations further north towards the border.
Although there will be several chances for showers, drier conditions
look to return towards the weekend as ridging builds back into the
region, although trends will need to be monitored as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions currently prevail across the
region, with a few scattered showers moving through this afternoon.
Some brief periods of MVFR may be possible at terminals, especially
if a shower passes overhead, but the overall confidence is low so
PROB30s were utilized for the next few hours to cover this
potential. While VFR conditions are expected for most of the
forecast period, some MVFR ceilings may be possible overnight at
KSLK and KEFK in particular. Main concern for aviators during the
forecast period will be the breezy westerly winds. Winds this
afternoon will continue to be between 10-17 knots sustained with
gusts 20 to 30 knots through about 00Z. A brief lull in winds will
be possible overnight, although several terminals may have gusts
continue into the overnight. Winds will become more northwesterly
for tomorrow, still remaining on the breezier side. Some pockets of
LLWS will be possible tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 216 PM EDT Monday...

A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entirety of Lake
Champlain.Frequent northwesterly wind gusts of 25-30 kts and
wave heights remaining 2 to 4 feet will continue through the
afternoon into the evening. With the northwest flow wave
funneling may occur with locally higher waves between 4 to 5
feet near the mouth Shelburne Bay and the east side of the Broad
Waters towards Burlington Bay. Winds will decrease below
advisory thresholds this evening and overnight.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Boyd
AVIATION...Kremer
MARINE...NWS BTV