000
FXUS61 KBTV 150753
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
353 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue across the region today, though just
light rainfall amounts are expected. Dry and pleasant spring weather
is on tap on Tuesday and Wednesday before widespread showers return
to end the work week. The weekend looks mainly dry with cooler
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Monday...Skies have cleared out across the southern
half of our forecast area this morning, which has allowed dense
valley fog to develop in the usual pone locations. CLoud cover
associated with an upper shortwave crossing overhead will continue
to spread in from the northwest, and this may keep fog holding in a
little longer than might normally be expected. Showers associated
with this feature are already approaching the St Lawrence Valley,
and this activity will continue to spread over the remainder of the
area through the day. Showers should stay scattered in nature given
lack of really deep moisture and strong forcing, and any rainfall
amounts will be less than a quarter of an inch. Skies will remain
partly to mostly cloudy, and sunnier locations will likely warm into
the mid or even upper 50s. Elsewhere, highs will be in the upper 40s
to low 50s. We`ll see one last burst of showers this evening as
another shortwave digs into the region, but this activity will wane
overnight. Clouds will lessen in coverage as well, and with light
winds, lows will drop into the lower to mid 30s in most spots; a few
upper 20s will be possible in the usual cold locations. Tuesday will
feature more sunshine, especially earlier in the day. With the upper
trough remaining positioned just off to our northeast, clouds will
likely increase over northeastern areas as daytime heating and the
cold pool aloft allow for steepening low level lapse rates. Highs
will be in the 50s, perhaps a spot 60F in southern locations. Winds
will be a little on the breezy side, so it will likely feel a little
brisk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 353 AM EDT Monday...Dry weather is expected overnight Tuesday
through much of Wednesday as deep layer ridging continues to slow an
approach warm frontal occlusion. Sunshine is expected to be
plentiful on Wednesday with just a few high clouds transiting the
area. By Wednesday evening, we will begin to see some mid-level
clouds filter into the region and eventually some lower clouds as a
warm occlusion lifts north towards the region. This could bring in
some light rain showers into southern Vermont Wednesday night but
most rain chances will likely hold off until Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Monday...What was once looking like it might be a
decent rainfall event across the North Country continues to look
more and more lackluster. A sizable mid-latitude cyclone is expected
to transit the upper Mid- West Thursday into Friday and push a warm
front across the region on Thursday. By the time the front begins to
impact us, the surface low will likely have already occluded leading
to the frontal boundary shearing apart. This should limit rainfall
totals to a quarter of an inch or less given the latest guidance
with no low level jet given the weakening of the low pressure system
well to our west. As the front shears apart, our rain chances are
expected to quickly dwindle by late Friday morning which should
allow for another break in precipitation until a cold front pushes
through Friday night into Saturday morning. Additional rainfall,
albeit minimal, is expected at this time with a lack of deep layer
moisture and forcing. High pressure is slated to build back into the
region late this weekend and likely continue into the first portion
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will
prevail through 12Z with cloudy skies and light winds leading to
areas of reduced visibility, likely to MVFR and potentially IFR
in spots. After 12Z, MVFR conditions lift to VFR with isolated
to widely scattered showers possible through the afternoon.
Winds remain relatively light Monday morning, becoming westerly
at 6-12kts in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KSLK is experiencing comms issues. Dataflow may be sporadic.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Lahiff
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV