867
FXUS61 KBTV 231802
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
202 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across the region
through Thursday, although no widespread severe weather is expected.
High pressure will build across the North Country Friday and into
the weekend, allowing for a return of dry weather with temperatures
warming to near 90s degrees in the valleys by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 202 PM EDT Tuesday...Forecast has been playing on pretty
well with regards to partial clearing allowing temperatures to
recover slightly while still limiting instability. Mixed Layer
CAPE has gradually risen to around 500 J/kg in southern portions
of the High Peaks region where showers still have not been able
to grow to produce lightning as they pulse upward. This also
limits potential for excessive rainfall as cells, while not
moving quickly, are not sitting still. Otherwise, most scattered
shower activity is over the eastern and southern half of
Vermont and should generally continue pushing eastward and
southward with time. A quasi-stationary front has sagged to the
south such that winds have turned northerly across the northern
Champlain Valley and other northern portions of Vermont. This
will limit chances of rain further as low level air dries north
of the boundary.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Widespread precipitation will taper off
this morning, with some additional chances for some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The cloud
cover and precipitation this morning will likely limit
instability across the region this afternoon, limiting the
overall convective threat. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk
Excessive Outlook across the entire forecast area primarily due
to the potential for heavy downpours within any storms that do
develop this afternoon as well as fairly low FFG values. Daytime
high temperatures will warm into the 70s and low 80s. Showers
will diminish throughout the evening with the loss of diurnal
instability, providing a break in the showery weather. Overnight
lows tonight will remain mild given the humid airmass across
the region, with temperatures generally in the 60s.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue into Wednesday, with
the greatest potential during the afternoon and evening hours. The
greatest instability looks to lie across northern New York, with
model soundings showing CAPE values reaching or exceeding 1000 J/kg,
although the shear looks to be more marginal. SPC has placed much of
northern New York in a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Wednesday
given the potential for isolated strong to severe storms developing.
With fairly high PWAT values across the region, heavy rainfall looks
to be the primary threat across the region, which may lead to some
localized flooding concerns if locations receive multiple rounds of
showers. Daytime high temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to
low 80s, which will feel quite humid with dewpoints in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 422 AM EDT Tuesday...Active weather will continue for Wednesday
night into Thursday, with showers and thunderstorms ongoing as upper
level trough and embedded shortwave energy continue to push across
the north country. Thunderstorms will be possible, though don`t
expect strong storms to continue following loss of daytime heating
and surface based instability. Temperatures on Wednesday night will
remain mild, lows will range from around 60 to the upper 60s with
clouds and precipitation keeping the temperatures warm. Surface
boundary will push across the region on Thursday, bringing
additional showers and thunderstorms. Will need to monitor potential
for flash flooding after several days of showers, some with heavy
rain. Maximum temperatures on Thursday will be in the lower 70s to
lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 422 AM EDT Tuesday...Some showers will linger into Thursday
night, but precipitation will come to an end before sunrise Friday
morning. Drier weather is expected for much of the extended portion
of the forecast as surface and upper level ridges build over our
area. This upper level ridging over us will also allow for some hot
air to seep back into our region. The beginning of next week looks
quite warm at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...At this time all terminals are seeing
VFR conditions as low clouds have scattered out. A few showers
are across the airspace; there are slight chances (mainly
around 20%) of impacting EFK, MPV, and RUT through 00Z, but a
direct hit and reduction in visibility is unlikely. Mostly dry
weather follows overnight with light winds becoming increasingly
out of the south/southeast. Moist low level air will contribute
to chances of MVFR ceilings at all sites, and possibly fog at
times for sites like MPV and EFK. After 12Z any low stratus/fog
will dissipate as flow increases ahead of a low pressure system
to our west. Winds will be 5 to 10 knots, mainly southerly
except easterly at MSS. Towards the end of the period, showers
and thunderstorms will develop in New York mainly south of the
area but may impact SLK by 18Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Kremer/Kutikoff