886
FXUS61 KBTV 260554
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
154 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
After some much needed rainfall, some additional showers will
continue across the region tonight, with some lingering showers into
tomorrow. Drier and warmer weather return for the weekend, with high
pressure bringing a stretch of seasonable and pleasant weather to
the region next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 732 PM EDT Thursday...Precipitation is started to move
eastward as a defined line is moving into southern Vermont. As
such adjustments were needed to better outline where rain is
falling on radar. Kept area of greater than 75% chances longer
across southern/eastern Vermont for an hour longer while
removing thunderstorm chances which are not occurring.
Otherwise, the forecast is right on target and is verifying
well.
Previous discussion...As expected, precipitation has once again
become more widespread across the region once again after a
brief lull earlier this morning as surface low pressure crosses
the region. Rainfall amounts have ranged anywhere from a few
tenths of an inch to over 1.5 inches of rainfall, with the St.
Lawrence Valley and portions of northern Vermont on the lower
end with southern Vermont receiving the most so far. Rainfall
will gradually becoming more showery and taper off through the
evening. Some fog development and low stratus clouds will be
possible tonight with so much surface moisture available,
especially towards the pre-dawn hours. Temperatures overnight
tonight will be on the milder side with plentiful cloud cover
and showers, with lows only dropping into the 50s and low 60s.
Tomorrow will largely feature drier weather, although a few
lingering showers will be possible throughout the day. A weak cold
front will pass through the region, bringing some additional chances
for showers in the afternoon but any shower chances look largely
limited to the higher terrain and portions of the Northeast Kingdom.
High temperatures tomorrow will generally climb into the 70s, but
increased cloud cover and lingering precipitation could keep things
on the cooler side. Temperatures overnight Friday will be cooler
than the previous night, with lows dropping into 40s to lower 50s
with additional chances for fog development as high pressure shifts
toward the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 218 PM EDT Thursday...Seasonable and dry weather is expected
for the first half of the weekend as high pressure builds into the
region. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to
low 70s will make for a pleasant late September day. Overnight lows
will be in the mid 40s to almost 60 near Lake Champlain. The latest
guidance continues to keep any chances for showers associated with a
weak coastal low south of our forecast area Saturday night, but this
potential may need to be monitored if guidance trends further north.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Friday...Multi level high pressure and ridging will
build across the Plains and Midwest early next week and move
east/northeastward towards the forecast area, deflecting any
tropical moisture to the south. Westerly flow is anticipated to
advect milder temperatures into the region, keeping highs Monday
nearly 10 degrees above seasonal averages in the mid 70s to lower
80s. Then, a dry cold frontal boundary is expected to cross from
north/northwest to south/southeast and drop highs for the latter
half of the week to the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Even stronger high pressure will build out of the Hudson Bay around
midweek, continuing to keep our forecast area out of any
precipitation or even ,any cloudy weather. Nighttime conditions
next week will likely feature abundant patches of valley fog
with light or calm surface winds and plenty of clear sky. Lows
Sunday and Monday nights will be in the 40s and lower 50s, then
dropping after the cold front into the upper 20s to mid 40s.
This will mean frost is possible for many locations, most likely
in the Adirondacks, the Greens, and eastern Vermont as a whole.
Any frost products we might issue will likely not include the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom because their designated
"growing season" ends Oct 1 (Tuesday night), but elsewhere the
frost/freeze program continues.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...A wide range of conditions anywhere from
VFR to LIFR is occurring as the storm system that brought plenty
of rain yesterday shifts northeastward across Maine. Some sites
seem to be showing quick improvement in conditions with ceilings
scattering/lifting and vis increasing. However, we expect
conditions bouncing down to MVFR and IFR periodically over the
next 6 hours. We`re forecasting conditions to return to a
sustained MVFR or higher level by around 11Z-16Z Friday, though
the exact timing remains tricky. Prevailing VFR conditions are
anticipated by about 15Z-20Z. Friday morning southwesterly flow
will turn westerly Friday afternoon and even northwesterly
later in the day Friday into the overnight. Winds may gust
10-20 knots at times 18Z onwards.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
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