234
FXUS61 KBTV 090601
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
201 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Passing showers are expected this evening, especially across
the Champlain Valley. Sharply colder air is expected,
particularly Thursday afternoon into Friday morning where a few
daily record lows may be tied or broken. Conditions will
gradually warm up again over the weekend. The next work week
will begin with increasing clouds, but whether or not we receive
widespread rain will depend on how far north a coastal system
tracks. Stay tuned for updates on whether or not we will receive
more beneficial rain and perhaps some breezy east winds early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 727 PM EDT Wednesday...Updated forecast to reflect
current radar trends, only slight changes made. Previous
discussion follows.
A subtle low-level trough is shifting south. At the southwest
corner, it has interacted with unstable lake conditions over
Lake Ontario to produce a meso-low. It`s pretty cool on
satellite, and you should check it out. This trough will bring
showers and a reinforcing push of cold air. We`re starting to
see activity cross the St. Lawrence River. Some convergence over
Lake Champlain and lake instability of our own should allow
activity to blossom as it reaches the Champlain Valley with more
isolated coverage elsewhere. Temperatures in the mid 50s to
lower 60s will becomes mid 20s to mid 30s behind cold advection.
The challenging aspect of this is frost potential. We will have
the temperatures for it, but if we maintain winds, then frost
will not form. At the very least, tender plants and outdoor
pipes may not like the freezing conditions. Just in case, frost
advisories and freeze warnings are in effect. If there are
lingering showers associated with the trough overnight, a few
flakes of snow are not impossible at summit level.
Thursday will be rather chilly with the cold air mass overhead.
Any lingering clouds will scatter out as steady 5 to 15 mph
northwesterly flow continues. High temperatures may fail to
climb over 50 in parts of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom,
and the broader valleys will reach at least the mid 50s. Strong
surface high pressure will build, and this will set the stage
for efficient radiational cooling. Frost/freeze will be a slam
dunk. Excepting areas surrounding Lake Champlain, everyone
should fall below freezing, and KSLK should reach the teens. A
few sites may approach daily record lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 148 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will move away
Friday, which will allow temperatures to get closer to normal
again with mid 50s to lower 60s. Under mostly sunny skies,
Friday will typify a pleasant October day. Temperatures will
become cool again Friday night into Saturday morning. Some
frost/freeze is likely again. The broad valleys will maintain a
light south wind keeping temperatures in the lower 40s, but
sheltered bowls within the Adirondacks and east of the Green
mountains will likely take another dive well below freezing.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...A coastal low moving towards the
Northeast will be the main feature to watch this weekend, although
there is still plenty of uncertainty as to the evolution of this
system. Compared to previous forecasts, the latest ensemble and
deterministic guidance continue to support the more northerly low
track, increasing the chances for impacts across our forecast
region. Chances for precipitation look to be higher compared to
previous runs, with more of the forecast potentially receiving some
rain and chances for rainfall lingering into the beginning of next
week. Locally strong easterly winds also look possible, with some
potential for 40 mph gusts across Windsor and Rutland counties at
this time. As previously stated, there is still a lot of uncertainty
at this time, so be sure to monitor the forecast as we get closer.
Temperatures during this time frame look to be seasonable, with
daytime highs in the upper 50s and 60s and overnight lows in 30s and
40s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
all terminals throughout the forecast period. Some broken to
scattered mid-level clouds will gradually scatter, with skies
trending clear by the afternoon hours. Brisk northwesterly flow will
continue through the morning, with most terminals seeing winds 5 to
12 knots with possible gusts of 15 to 20 knots before trending
lighter by the evening as high pressure builds overhead.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Columbus Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds over Lake Champlain are currently about 10 to 20 knots
sustained. There is an occasional gust or observed wind speed
approaching 25 knots. North winds funneling through the valley
are expected to continue, with low level flow increasing this
afternoon again. Faster winds are thus expected by this
afternoon and evening. The strongest winds will be from the
broad waters down to the southern waters of Lake Champlain at 20
to 30 knots. Waves will build from 2 to 4 feet up to 3 to 5
feet over southern waters in the vicinity of Diamond Island.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Strong radiational cooling is expected Thursday night into
Friday morning. The follow will approach daily records.
Record Low Temperatures:
October 10:
KMPV: 24/1986 (Forecast value: 26)
KSLK: 18/1934 (Forecast value: 17)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ006-008-010-
011-019-020.
Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for
VTZ002-005-006-008>011-016>021.
Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ016>018.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026-027-087.
Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for
NYZ026>028-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
MARINE...BTV
CLIMATE...BTV
|
