268
FXUS61 KBTV 171142
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
742 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged period of dry weather starts today as high pressure
builds over the region. Expect ample sunshine through the end of the
week and over the weekend, along with a gradual warming trend.
Another round of frost is likely tonight and possibly again Friday
night. High temperatures will rebound into the 60s for the weekend
and possibly reaching the lower 70s by Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 738 AM EDT Thursday...Have issued an update to
cancel/expire the Frost/Freeze headlines this morning. While
current temperatures are near to below freezing, they should
start to rise as the sun continues to come up. Otherwise, the
forecast is in good shape and no other changes were needed.
Previous discussion...Off to a frosty start this morning with
temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s. There`s a little
patchy valley fog out there as well. Both fog and frost will
dissipate through the morning hours once the sun rises in
earnest. From there, expecting lots of sunshine today, and again
on Friday, as clear skies will dominate. Highs today will
generally be in the 50s, turning warmer tomorrow with highs in
the upper 50s to mid 60s. The clear skies and light winds will
result in another good radiational cooling night, so anticipate
another round of frost with temperatures dipping into the upper
20s to mid 30s. Additional frost advisories and/or freeze
warnings will likely needed, but will hold off on issuing at
this point, allowing our current frost headlines to expire to
avoid confusion.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 324 AM EDT Thursday...Synoptically quiescent conditions will
prevail across the North Country during the short-term period. The
00Z NWP guidance suite is consistent with previous cycles in showing
an unusually large, deep- layer ridge across much of the eastern USA.
Associated subsidence results in 1000-500mb RH values in the 20-30%
range and anticipate generally clear skies aside from some isold
nocturnal fog/low stratus in the favored valleys 06-12Z Saturday.
Temperatures will be in the process of slowly moderating. However,
lows near freezing away from Lake Champlain Friday night will result
in some additional frost and included mention in the official fcst.
With 850mb temperatures around +11C, afternoon highs Saturday should
reach the mid 60s in most valley locations. Winds Saturday generally
light south around 5 mph, except locally SW 5-10 mph in the St.
Lawrence Valley with modest channeled flow. PoPs NIL thru the
period.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 324 AM EDT Thursday...Large-scale, deep layer ridge will remain
our controlling weather feature thru Tuesday night/early Wednesday.
Continued moderation of the prevailing air mass is anticipated, with
afternoon highs on Sunday into the mid-upper 60s, and into the lower
70s for Monday and Tuesday. As the deep-layer ridge breaks down, a
strong northern stream shortwave trough and attendant cold front is
expected to approach from the northern Great Lakes region. At this
point, NWP consensus places associated frontal rain band and
possible gusty winds into the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
Period of rainfall should be relatively brief based on present
indications...likely 6 hours or less. Should see a significant
cooldown in the wake of the cold front with developing NW flow and
strong low-level CAA Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Outside of some localized IFR/LIFR in
patchy fog very early in the TAF period, VFR conditions will
prevail over the next 24 hours. Clear skies will dominate, with
perhaps a few high clouds drifting over northern terminals
through the day on Thursday. Radiation fog will persist at
KSLK/KMPV through 14z, then clearing thereafter. Another round
of fog and IFR conditions will be possible after 06z Fri, but
have left out of the TAFs at this time due to uncertainty. Winds
will be light and variable through the entire TAF period.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Hastings
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