522
FXUS61 KBTV 040515
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1215 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 142 PM EST Tuesday...
Introduced freezing rain to the forecast for Thursday night
into Friday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 142 PM EST Tuesday...
1. Light snow this afternoon through midnight with some spotty
freezing drizzle possible at the end.
2. More mixed precipitation possible Thursday night into
Friday.
3. A period of light freezing rain is possible early Saturday,
especially east of the Green Mountains, which could produce
slick travel. Then, rain is anticipated by Saturday afternoon
and evening.
4. The potential for ice jams and hydrological issues will need
to be monitored this weekend due to well above normal
temperatures and significant snow melt.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 142 PM EST Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The forecast remains on track for a light
nuisance snowfall event this afternoon through midnight as a
wave of low pressure tracks west to east along a slow moving
warm front south of the forecast area. Clouds and precipitation
have kept temperatures below freezing today for much of our
southern zones and the southern Adirondacks while northern
locales have warmed into the mid-30s. Despite the lack of cold
air at the surface though, when precipitation does arrive expect
temperatures to wetbulb below freezing supporting snow as the
dominant ptype, albeit wet with ratios generally 5-10:1. A
general dusting to 2" is expected with isolated amounts up to 4"
on the higher terrain of eastern Addison/Rutland counties.
Steady snow ends quickly after midnight, however forecast
soundings continue to show abundant moisture trapped below a
building inversion while drier air moves into the DGZ supporting
the chance for patchy freezing drizzle on the tail end of the
precip. This will mainly be for mid-slope to higher elevations
before sunrise Wednesday where thereafter the entire column drys
out and surface temps warm above freezing. There could be a few
slick spots on higher elevation passes for the morning commute.
KEY MESSAGE 2: We continue to monitor the evolution and track
of another system passing south of our forecast area Thursday
through Friday with increasing chances for mixed precipitation
across the region. The large-scale synoptic setup features high
pressure building south from James Bay driving low-level cold
air across the international border Thursday night while weak
surface low pressure and a modest shortwave trough move west to
east from the Great Lakes to near Cape Cod by Friday morning.
The aforementioned warm front from Tuesday continues its slow
march northward on Wednesday with 925-850mb temps pushing above
0C and persisting over much of the region through Friday. This
scenario supports freezing rain as the dominant ptype across
most of the forecast area Thursday night through Friday morning
before surface temps warm back above freezing. Where additional
uncertainty in the forecast remains is how far north
precipitation makes it with medium-long range guidance
inconsistent from run to run. The AI versions of the GFS and
ECWMF seem to favor a more southern track with little QPF across
our northern zones, while their deterministic counter parts are
a bit farther north, along with the GEM. The driving shortwave
is really just getting it`s act together over the WY/CO border
this afternoon, so hopefully we`ll have a better idea of the
track this time tomorrow.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Surface low pressure will slide through or just
north of northern New York and Vermont on Saturday and Saturday
night, accompanied by strong warm air advection. This would
allow surface temperatures to soar into the 50s in the afternoon
with nighttime lows in the 30s and low 40s, 15-25 degrees above
seasonable normals for early March. A strong low level jet
(850mb winds up to 65-70 knots) and weak cold frontal boundary
move through Saturday evening/night, producing gusty winds and
precipitation. A deep inversion will make precipitation type
messy and potentially difficult to forecast Saturday morning.
Most models suggest a portion of the arriving precipitation will
be in the form of freezing rain at the onset, particularly east
of the Greens where cold air looks to pool, then turning to all
rain as surface temperatures moderate and stronger forcing
arrives with the cold front later Saturday. We also continue to
see some elevated instability Saturday afternoon, which could
result in rumbles of thunder.
KEY MESSAGE 4: Temperatures are expected to remain 10-20
degrees above seasonal normals through next midweek in
persistent southwesterly flow. Highs could reach as high as the
upper 40s and 50s, while lows will fall only into the lower and
mid 30s. Given the duration of warm temperatures, most of the
snowpack below 1500 feet may be melted by early next week,
which, combined with some intervals of precipitation, will cause
rises on rivers and streams. These rises could be enough to
produce localized ice jams and other hydrological issues. In
addition, both the NAEFS and GEFS indicate Ausable, Mad, and
Otter Creek have a 40 to 60% probability of reaching minor flood
stage due to the combination of snow melt and QPF by early next
week. We will continue to monitor the potential for both ice
jam and main stem river flooding as we head toward the upcoming
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...The near term aviation focus will be
developing low clouds and mist, along with some patchy freezing
drizzle at our mtn taf sites. Crnt obs show light snow lingering
across our eastern taf sites of EFK/MPV and RUT, with radar
showing back edge exiting our region by 07z. A large area of
subsidence on water vapor will move directly overhead this
morning, help to developing lowering cigs with IFR conditions
likely. The greatest probability of IFR will be at SLK/EFK/RUT
and MSS with 30 to 40% probability at BTV/MPV between 06z-14z.
As moisture thins this morning, conditions should quickly
improve to VFR at all sites. VFR will prevail through 00z
Thursday with light south/southwest winds 3 to 7 knots.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
FZRA, Chance SN, Chance PL.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN, Slight
chance FZRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lahiff
DISCUSSION...Storm/Lahiff
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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