169
FXUS61 KBTV 051038
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
638 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 455 AM EDT Tuesday...
Quick update to increase pops this morning, adjust temps, and
winds grids. Radar imagery showing greater areal coverage of
showers/embedded rumbles than original expected over northern
NY.
Issued Wind Advisory for portions of northern NY. Also,
added gusty wind wording associated with thunderstorm potential
this afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 254 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Gusty southwest winds expected today, especially across
northern NY. A few stronger thunderstorms possible this
afternoon with localized gusty winds as the primary threat,
along with frequent lightning.
2. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain expected between today
and Wednesday evening across our region, but threat for flooding is
low.
3. Unsettled weather with cooler temperatures this weekend into
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 254 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A Wind Advisory has been issued from 15Z to 00Z today
for gusty southwest winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph for
portions of northern NY. Latest 00z NAM/HRRR and RAP sounding data
all suggests very favorable mixing profiles up to 750mb today,
resulting in localized gusty southwest winds, especially across
portions of northern NY, where progged 925mb to 700mb winds are
the strongest. NAM12KM and NAM3KM soundings show favorable
mixing under warming bl temps, with top of the mixed layer winds
of 45 to 55 knots, while bottom values are in the 35 to 45 knot
range, supporting localized gusts 40 to 50 mph possible. The
core of strongest winds wl be from OGS to MSS, then angling
along the northern downslope areas of the Dacks from Malone to
Altona from roughly noon to 5 PM. Soundings suggest favorable
dry adiabatic mixing profiles with 0-3km lapse rates in the 8-9
C/km range. Also, the timing of clouds/precip is important
toward the amount of llvl instability/mixing, as earlier arrival
limits sfc heating and depth of mixing and would support
lighter winds per GFS solution. Elsewhere, winds 10 to 25 mph
with gusts 25 to 40 mph is expected over the CPV and parts of
central/eastern VT.
Have coordinated with SPC this morning with regards to maintaining
the new Day 1 Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) acrs our cwa this aftn.
Little has changed with regards to our thinking, as latest GOES-19
mid lvl water vapor imagery shows a rather messy upstream scenario.
Mid/upper lvl trof conts to deepen over the northern Great Lakes,
while modest heights falls are occurring over the eastern Great
Lakes associated with initial 700-500mb embedded vort and pre-
frontal sfc trof. Meanwhile, have noted multiple pockets of
convection and plenty of clouds/moisture in the developing warm
sector under deep southwest flow from the SLV into the northern Ohio
Valley. The challenging aspect with regards to convection this aftn
is how much does the upstream convective debris cloud canopy hinder
bl layer heating/instability from developing. Latest 00z CAMs
suggest ML CAPE values in the 500-1000 J/kg range, but as mixing
improves during the early aftn hours, sfc dwpts could drop back into
the upper 40s. Sounding profiles are very impressive with steep sfc
to 3km lapse rates in the 8-9 C/km range, supporting higher based
convective capable of localized gusty winds within mini bowing line
segments. Also, noted unidirectional wind profiles through 500mb and
more straight lined hodographs today, which is confirmed with area
VAD profiles, suggesting bowing line segments as primary convective
mode. Still concerned developing deep layer shear near 50 knots and
modest CAPE profiles may shear higher/stronger convective tops
apart, minimizing severe potential. If greater clearing develops and
instability can approach 1500-1800 J/kg, the probability of
stronger/more robust updrafts and severe threat increases acrs our
cwa this aftn. Its pretty much a nowcasting scenario, in monitoring
latest clearing/heating/instability trends and evolution of
upstream convection today.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms this aftn
evolve into a widespread stratiform rain event late tonight into
Weds acrs our cwa. 00z guidance continues to support a widespread 1
to 2 inches of rainfall by Weds evening acrs our cwa. This wl be
driven off synoptic scale lift, from tightening low level thermal
boundary and developing weak area of low pres lifting along boundary
on Weds. Most of our cwa is progged to be on the cool/north side of
this system, with limited instability and rainfall rates in the 0.10
to 0.25 inch per hour range. The strong llvl convergence, combined
with a sw to ne axis of enhanced 850mb to 700mb fgen forcing, should
produce enough synoptic ascent to support this moderate rainfall
event. Current guidance suggests heaviest axis of rainfall wl be from
the central Dacks into central VT, where some localized values
in the mountains could exceed 2.0". Given the anticipated rates
and long duration event, no river or flash flooding is expected
with this event. A cold raw and wet Wednesday is predicted with
highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s, maybe lower 60s near VSF.
Steadier rainfall slowly tapers off by late Weds night with some
areas of fog/low clouds likely into Thurs morning.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The general unsettled weather pattern will continue into
the long term. This is due to broad troughing/cyclonic flow that
will remain anchored over eastern Canada. As multiple shortwaves
round the base of the trough and transit over our forecast area, we
can expect off and on periods of rain over the weekend and into
early next week. Temperatures will stay slightly below seasonal
norms, but will be warm enough to support rain as the dominant
precipitation type in all but the highest elevations. Overnight low
temperatures may support some frost development this weekend
(depending on evolution of cloud cover and overnight winds),
especially Saturday morning in the northern Adirondacks and eastern
Vermont. However, the Champlain Valley is the only area within our
forecast area of responsibility that has started the "growing
season" as per our frost-freeze program, and conditions there will
remain warm enough to preclude a frost threat. Thus at this point
headlines are not anticipated, but keep an extra eye on the
late week/weekend forecast if you have sensitive vegetation.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...The greatest aviation concerns are gusty
winds and potential for thunderstorms today. Southerly winds 10
to 15 knots will increase 15 to 25 knots with localized higher
gusts by 15z today. The strongest surface gusts are expected at
KMSS, where gusts will locally reach the 35 to 40 knot range
mainly between 17Z and 21Z. Areas of llws are still possible
this morning, until surface winds increase due to better mixing.
Scattered showers with embedded rumbles of thunder will lift
north of our northern NY taf sites by 14z. Additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected between 17z and 22z this
afternoon. Localized strong and gusty outflow winds are
possible, along with areas of enhanced turbulence and shear,
especially near any convection. Vis could drop into the 2-4SM
briefly in the heavier convection, while cigs would be in the
MVFR range. Additional rain develops toward 06z with lowering
cigs to MVFR conditions can be anticipated by sunrise on Weds,
along with winds shifting to the northwest.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA,
Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly winds 10 to 15 knots are slowly increasing this
morning and should be 15 to 25 knots by sunrise with a few
higher gusts possible this morning, before subsiding back into
the 10 to 20 knot range by this afternoon. Wave 1 to 2 feet
build 2 to 4 feet this morning, before decreasing by sunset this
evening.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for NYZ026>028-030-031-034-087.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Taber/Duell
AVIATION...Duell/Taber
MARINE...NWS BTV
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