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FXUS61 KBTV 290504
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
104 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 243 PM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes made to this forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 243 PM EDT Saturday...
1. Temperatures warm above seasonal averages through mid week.
2. The next storm system will move through the region Tuesday
into Wednesday bringing widespread rain and some stronger
southerly breezes.
3. Mixed Precipitation Possible Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 243 PM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Despite a few showers today and tomorrow
due to a couple of passing troughs, temperatures will be
trending markedly warmer through mid week. Southerly flow
develops Sunday kicking off warm air advection in earnest
bringing surface temperatures back to around seasonal averages
generally in the 40s before increasing into the low/mid 50s
through Wednesday for most locations. Overnight lows will follow
a similar warming trend with temperatures running below seasonal
averages tonight ranging from the teens to mid 20s, above
freezing by Monday night.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The next system remains on track to move into the
region Tuesday with most model guidance favoring the quasi-
stationary boundary along the Canadian border into southern
Canada. There is still a little uncertainty about where this
boundary will be initially, but trends seem to be pointing to
the more northerly positioning. As such, temperatures will
continue to warm and favor rain at onset rather than a mix of
precip or snow. Will continue to monitor since colder solutions
would point to some impacts. Trajectory of the system and
accompanying dynamics currently support PWATs climbing to
around 1" with slow/training motion vectors. This could mean
some decent rain totals as energy tracks west to east along the
boundary rather than having a sharp northwest-southeast push on
Tuesday. With the region in the warm sector ahead of the cold
front, some thunderstorm potential exists Tuesday afternoon
mainly in northern New York - timing will need some refinement
going forward, but a few cells could track into western Vermont
by the evening. Models point to an increase in thermal gradient
overnight with jet energy pushing the front through more rapidly
in that time period. As temperatures fall, a transition to some
snow showers seems probable given latest guidance. QPF on the
back end would be lower though, so only a dusting of snow is
favored at this time. Winds will be gusty along the front with
potential for gusts to 35 mph as flow transitions more
northwesterly.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Another storm system makes a run at the region for
Friday, but it currently looks to take a more southerly track.
Canadian high pressure will be established on Thursday and it will
provide a cold antecedent airmass for this low pressure to run into.
With the current favored storm track, the precipitation looks to
begin as snow and gradually transition to mixed precipitation and
rain, but being almost a week out, there is plenty of time for a
significant change in the storm track and therefore precipitation
types. Combined GEFS/EPS/CAN ensemble probabilities of 1 inch or
more of snow generally range between 35-55 percent, 3 are between 15-
35 percent and 6 are between 5-15 percent. Probabilities of 0.1 inch
or more of freezing rain are between 10-30 percent for the favored
locations east of the Greens and in southern Essex County NY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...The primary aviation concern over the next
12 to 24 hours will be developing gusty winds today, followed by
a small chance of a light snow shower at SLK. Currently VFR
conditions with light winds prevail at all sites. A weak warm
front may produce a light snow shower at SLK between 08z-12z
this morning with brief MVFR vis. Gusty southwest winds develop
behind this boundary with localized gusts up to 25 knots
expected between 15z and 22z today. Winds weaken around sunset
with areas of low level wind shear likely at MSS/SLK and RUT
this evening.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA,
Slight chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, Slight
chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Myskowski
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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