195
FXUS61 KBTV 082352
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
652 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, but very cold conditions will continue to prevail across the
region tonight into tomorrow morning before south winds begin to
increase during the day tomorrow. Several rounds of snow are
expected throughout the week, with the most widespread precipitation
expected to occur Wednesday into Wednesday night. After a brief warm
up mid week, colder temperatures will return by week`s end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 648 PM EST Monday...Updated forecast to lower overnight
minimum temperatures a bit as temperatures area already dropping
sharply. Lows will reach the teens below zero in the coldest
spots of the Greens and Dacks. Most over Vermont should dip
below zero, with the warmest temperatures expected along Lake
Champlain. Previous discussion follows.

Dry but cold conditions are expected to continue tonight into
the first portion of the day tomorrow as the region remains
under the influence of high pressure. Despite the sunshine
across the region this afternoon, temperatures have only warmed
into the single digits and teens as of 1 PM this afternoon. The
cold conditions will continue through the overnight hours, with
a fresh snowpack and mostly clear skies allow for ideal
radiational cooling. Current forecast currently shows overnight
lows dropping to near to below zero areawide, with portions of
the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom close to -15F, although
these values could change if cloud cover moves into the region
faster than anticipated.

A gradually warming trend is expected during the day tomorrow as
winds become more southerly ahead of a weak shortwave expected to
pass through the region Tuesday night. Channeling in the Champlain
Valley will allow for breezy conditions, with gusts up to 30 mph
possible, while elsewhere gusts will likely remain under 20 mph. The
southerly flow will allow for warmer temperatures compared to today,
with highs in the upper teens and 20s. The shortwave, and any
associated precipitation, will arrive Tuesday evening, with just a
light dusting of snow expected in most locations, with a possible
inch or so expected across the higher terrain and portions of St.
Lawrence County. This system will quickly exit the region by
Wednesday morning, with the next system quickly following behind
for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 119 PM EST Monday...The active period of weather will continue
as another system moves into the region, bringing widespread
precipitation to the region. The latest guidance continues to
support widespread snowfall across the region, with more limited
potential for some rain to mix into the broader valleys during the
afternoon. South winds ahead of the low will allow daytime
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 30s, but given cold
profiles, would anticipate most of the precipitation to fall as
snow. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed for portions of
northern New York and areas along the Green Mountains with snowfall
amounts of 4 to 6 inches possible, with locally higher amounts
possible across the summits. Elsewhere, 1 to 4 inches of snowfall
are expected, but trends will need to be monitored as we get closer
as any changes in thermal profiles will likely impact snowfall
accumulations. Hazardous travel conditions will be possible,
especially during the Wednesday evening commute, so any travelers
will need to use caution.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 119 PM EST Monday...Upslope and lake effect snow showers are
expected to linger on Thursday and Thursday night as surface low
pressure pulls northward from the Gulf of St. Lawrence through
Newfoundland and Labrador and flow continues out of the west across
the forecast area. Global deterministic models continue to show
disagreements between one another on location and track of an upper
level low pressure during this period, which could impact how
widespread and persistent the snow showers are. Regardless, snow
should be relatively light and temperatures Thursday and Friday look
to swing back below seasonal normals. Highs forecast in the 20s and
lower 30s, and lows those nights will likely fall back into the
single digits to mid teens.

Temperatures keep trending downwards into the weekend and early next
week under moderate cold air advection with highs only reaching the
mid teens to lower 20s and lows getting down as low as negative
single digits above and below zero. Model consensus is not super
strong during this period either pertaining to our next quick
clipper type system that could bring additional snowfall to the
region, and the timing and track of the system would also impact the
timing and strength of cold air. It`s difficult to identify the
clipper system itself on model solutions, and it may come down to
more orographically enhanced snow showers with an upper shortwave
than a real defined surface feature.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...High pressure building in from
southeastern Ontario is providing us mostly clear conditions
with VFR dominating the next 24 hours in northern New York and
Vermont. Winds will continue to be light and variable/terrain
driven below 5 miles, some sites going calm.

Model atmospheric profiles appear reasonably dry at the
surface, so we are not anticipating fog tonight despite mostly
clear skies and calm winds. Some models are trying to indicate
some lowered vis at MPV towards early morning around 10Z-14Z
Tuesday of 5-7 miles, but this is overall a very low probability
of occurrence and does not have much support. Winds are
expected to shift out of the south by around 09Z-15Z Tuesday as
high clouds overspread the area (cigs 9,000 feet and higher).
PROB30s for arriving snow showers may be necessary beyond 00Z
Wednesday as that time frame comes into focus in future TAF
issuances, but stay tuned.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: MVFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Neiles/Storm
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV