088
FXUS61 KBTV 160655
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
155 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 153 AM EST Friday...No significant changes have been made
to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 153 AM EST Friday...
1. Cold temperatures and brisk westerly winds will make for bitterly
cold wind chills this morning, with some lingering snow showers
gradually tapering off.
2. A weak system will bring precipitation and light snow
accumulations to the region late Friday night into Saturday, which
may make for slippery travel, especially across southern Vermont.
3. An unseasonably cold and unsettled pattern looks to continue next
week with multiple chances for snow, but no system looks overly
significant or impactful.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 153 AM EST Friday...
.KEY MESSAGE 1: Some snow showers continue to linger across the
region this morning, with a particularly persistent band across
portions of the Champlain Valley. These showers will continue to
taper off as the morning progresses, with a relatively dry afternoon
expected. Temperatures this morning will be on the cold side,
especially after the warmth earlier this week, with temperatures
dropping into the single digits and low teens, with some of the
colder spots dipping below zero. Apparent temperatures will
generally be below zero this morning, generally -5F to -15F, with
the summits closer nearing -30F. Be sure to dress appropriately for
the cold, especially if you`ll be outside this morning.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: A weak system will pass across the region late
tonight into tomorrow, bringing chances for precipitation and
additional snowfall to the region, as well as slightly warmer
temperatures with some warm air advection. Daytime highs on Saturday
look to climb into the 30s, which is nearly 10 to 15 degrees warmer
than the high temperatures expected today. While a light dusting or
so is possible everywhere, southern Vermont and the spine of the
Green Mountains will be the most likely to see a few inches of snow.
Current guidance currently supports sub-advisory snowfall amounts
across the forecast area, with the exception of some of the higher
terrain, but we will continue to monitor as we get closer.
.KEY MESSAGE 3: Cool temperatures and unsettled weather will return
to the region for next week, with several chances for precipitation
possible. A few shortwaves passing across the region will be able to
bring some chances for snow across northern New York and the Green
Mountains. Guidance supports an impressive period of lake effect
snow early next week, primarily to our south, but some higher snow
accumulations will be possible across St. Lawrence County and
portions of the Adirondacks and the band waffles northward.
Unseasonably cold temperatures will be possible this week,
especially on Tuesday where daytime highs will only be in the single
digits and teens with overnight lows dropping near or below zero got
most of the area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Upper level low pressure is currently
centered over northern New York as surface low pressure shifts
eastward across New Hampshire. Snow will gradually taper off to
snow showers this evening, with some additional snow
accumulations possible in the more favored upslope locations.
Temperatures are falling sharply across the region and any wet
surfaces have the potential to freeze, especially untreated
surfaces.
Ceilings currently vary greatly this evening, anywhere from
1600 to 7500 feet above ground level. Sites currently with MVFR
levels at the moment will see a gradual improvement throughout
the next 6-12 hours, though MVFR ceilings may linger at mountain
sites towards 18Z Friday, and KMSS is starting to hint at a
brief period of snow showers (vis 4-6 miles) and ceilings
around 800-1000 feet through 03Z Friday. Overall, snow showers
will linger across the forecast area over the next few hours,
lowering visibilities to around 2-5 miles, though briefly lower
vis is possible. Showers linger longest at KSLK and KMPV,
potentially until 12Z-15Z Friday.
Winds out of the northwest 5-15 knots gusting 15-25 knots will
continue to be breezy over the next 12-18 hours, turning out of
the west and southwest for many sites throughout the night
tonight and throughout the day tomorrow. KSLK is most likely
to have a quick period of low level wind shear around 10Z-12Z.
Models are indicating there will also be a plume of moisture
crossing the forecast area around 09Z-15Z, which may bring a
short-lived resurgence of snow showers and MVFR level ceilings
during this period. Following this, we anticipate mainly VFR
conditions 12Z-18Z onwards with even some breaks in the clouds
throughout the day Friday.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kremer
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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