411
FXUS61 KBTV 221946
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1253 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast is on track.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. High pressure building through the end of the week will
bring dry weather with a gradual increasing trend in temperatures.
2. Quiet weather and increasing temperatures are expected this
upcoming weekend before another system bring showers and
thunderstorms to the region early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: This afternoon marks the beginning of a period of
quiet weather as a drier post-frontal air mass moves in and high
pressure builds. Any residual showers this afternoon will depart to
the east by this evening, and the remainder of the day will be dry.
West/northwest winds will continue to gust in the 15 to 30 mph range
this afternoon before weakening after sunrise. Temperatures over
the next few days will undergo a gradual warming trend. Highs
Thursday and Friday will be in the 70s to low 80s, with highs
warming to the low to mid 80s areawide by Saturday. Dewpoints will
be noticeably lower for the second half of the week compared to the
last few days, making for a comfortable end of the week. No
precipitation is expected through Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2: High
pressure starts to shift to the east by the second half of the
weekend, leading to increasing S/SW flow. The result will be warming
temperatures, with highs to be mainly in the mid/upper 80s both
Saturday and Sunday. Humidity doesn`t look too bad as dewpoints are
expected to remain the upper 50s to mid 60s. Our next chance of
precipitation arrives late Sunday into Monday and likely persists
into mid week as upper troughiness sets up across eastern Canada and
the northeastern CONUS. Shortwaves rotating around the upper trough
will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms. These sorts of
features are typically difficult to nail down in timing and strength
this far out, and indeed, model solutions differ quite a bit from
Sunday night onward. Have stayed with the NBM/WPC forecast for now
given the uncertainty, which results in chances of
showers/thunderstorms each day. Temperatures look to remain
seasonable through the period.
KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure will begin to drift east this weekend
with more southerly to southwesterly flow, helping to advect warmer
air into the region. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s
in general, with perhaps a few spot upper 80s in the Champlain
Valley. Given an unfavorable moisture advection pattern, dewpoints
should remain on the drier side for the weekend, remaining in the
50s. Warm air advection will keep overnight temperatures on the mild
side in the low to mid 60s. Subsidence under the high should keep
any precipitation at bay through most of the weekend with mainly
clear skies. Our next system is expected to swing through the area
late Sunday into early next week. A cyclonic gyre over northern
Quebec will bring troughiness to the East Coast, with a few
shortwaves riding along the southern periphery of the gyre through
the Great Lakes into our region. There is still quite the spread in
the timing and phasing of any of these shortwaves, but trends have
denoted best chances for precipitation to be Monday and Tuesday
afternoons, which is in line with the current WPC forecast. As these
waves pass through they will take with them small chunks of heat and
moisture, gradually knocking our temperatures and humidity levels
down into mid next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A few light showers associated with a cold front are continuing to
pass through the region, but little to no terminal impacts are
expected. Ceilings will bounce between scattered and broken 3000-
7000ft agl through the rest of the afternoon, before generally
becoming more scattered into the evening. Winds from the west
southwest will continue to be breezy between15 and 25 knots, with
pockets of 25-30 knots at MSS/BTV/PBG from channeled flow and
briefly for MPV/EFK/RUT potentially as the front moves through.
Winds will weaken slowly after sunset, but some flow at the surface
will help scour most of the low level moisture away from most
terminals. Winds may briefly trend towards variable to calm near
sunrise at SLK/MPV/EFK which may be enough time for a thin layer of
fog to develop with clearing skies. While confidence is low, have
trended this time frame towards potential fog with a SCT008 and 3SM
BR line around 09Z.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Champlain through the
remainder of this afternoon. Westerly winds of 20-30 kts,
following a cold front, will persist through late afternoon,
with waves on the broad lake building to 2-4 feet. Some gusts to
35 kts are possible, mainly across the broad portion of Lake
Champlain. Should see winds gradually diminish this evening and
into the overnight hours.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NWS BTV
DISCUSSION...NWS BTV
AVIATION...Danzig
MARINE...Banacos/NWS BTV
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