420
FXUS61 KBTV 171055
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
655 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and
dry weather conditions through mid week. A cold front moving
southeastward out of Canada will usher in a cooler air mass for
Friday and the upcoming weekend. However, measurable
precipitation is generally not expected with this cold front,
allowing drought conditions to persist across our region.
The potential for overnight frost/freeze conditions looks
increasingly likely this weekend across the higher terrain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Wednesday...The prolonged stretch of dry
weather will continue across the region as surface high pressure
and upper level ridging continue to remain the dominant weather
feature. Scattered mid to high level clouds associated with a
coastal low in the mid-Atlantic continue to move northward
through the area this morning, and should continue through the
day today. Some radiational fog is expected with the high
continuing to crest overhead tonight, however, with the lack of
moisture, fog development is not expected to be as widespread as
the previous night. The best chances for fog this morning will
be east of the Green Mountains and along the Connecticut River
Valley. Today will feature nearly identical weather to today,
with increased cloud cover and seasonably warm temperatures in
the mid to upper 70s. Some high and mid level cloud cover
associated with a decaying coastal low in the Mid- Atlantic will
continue to overspread the region, however dry weather will
continue to persist. Overnight lows will be milder compared to
the last few nights, with temperatures in the mid 40s to upper
50s expected.
Thursday will feature some clearing skies as a trough attempts
to dig into the region from the northwest and break down the
persistent high. Temperatures will gradually increase into the
upper 70s to low 80s. Clearing skies in the afternoon will see a
return to increasing clouds by the evening as the trough
approaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will continue to
break down Thursday night, with southerly flow across the
region. A weak cold front will approach the region Thursday
night, with little to no moisture associated with it. Some
slight chances for showers will be possible, but any
precipitation actually reaching the surface will be nonexistent
or negligible, with drought conditions persisting across the
region. The best chance for any precipitation (20-35%) will be
across the Adirondacks and northern Greens behind the front.
Models show any moisture increases will be behind the front and
after the wind shift which indicates orographic influences. As a
result, the precipitation will likely be terrain driven upslope
based with any precipitation hard to achieve in the Champlain
Valley. Temperatures overnight will generally drop into the 40s
and low 50s areawide. Highs on Friday will be dramatically
different with values 15-20 degrees lower than Thursday in the
60s. Clearing skies will return with plenty of sunshine
expected. As winds shift to the north/northwest, winds in the
Champlain Valley and at summit levels could be gusty up to 15 to
20 mph with some channeling enhancement possible in the
Champlain Valley. Winds do not look to be near fire weather
thresholds with the current forecast, but we will continue to
monitor the potential for any fire weather concerns as we get
closer to the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday...A 1030mb high pres centered near
Hudson Bay will nose into our fa by Sat with deep dry layer and
modest llvl caa. Have continued to trend lows toward the
MEX/BCCONSMOS data for Friday night and Sat night, which
supports lows in the mid/upper 20s SLK/NEK to mid 40s near Lake
Champlain. Frost and freeze headlines are likely for many areas
away from Lake Champlain on Friday and Saturday nights. Very dry
air wl mix toward the surface on Sat with critically low rh`s,
but winds with surface high pres building directly overhead wl
be 5 to 10 mph with localized gusts 12 to 18 mph in aligned
north to south valleys and exposed ridges. Highs generally in
the 60s on Saturday. As sfc high pres shifts to our east, warm
southerly flow develops by Sunday into early next week.
Dampening s/w energy in the southwesterly flow aloft passes to
our northwest on Monday aftn with some increasing clouds and
maybe a passing shower over northern NY. A much stronger system
with deeper moisture and better height falls arrives toward the
middle of next week. Still plenty of spread in timing and
magnitude of trof, so for now have just mention chc pops for
Tues/Weds with temps much above normal for mid Sept. Highs well
into the 70s to lower 80s with lows mid 40s to upper 50s. No
widespread wetting rainfall events are anticipated through early
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Much less fog this morning with MPV taf
sites as the only place to report 1/2SM FG and overcast 100
feet. Feel this fog is shallow this morning so should burn off
by 9 AM. Otherwise, VFR expected today into tonight with light
southerly winds at 3 to 6 knots. Tonight fog potential will be
limited to MPV, given potential for more high clouds, slightly
stronger low level winds and another day removed from rainfall.
Highest probability will be at MPV from 09z to 12z, which has
been covered with a tempo.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
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