977
FXUS61 KBTV 140629
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
229 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 228 AM EDT Thursday...
Relatively few changes were made to the forecast this cycle.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 228 AM EDT Thursday...
1. Next round of rain on the way, and Vermont and far
northeastern New York will be the focus today into tomorrow.
2. Warm and dry weekend weather is expected.
3. Above normal temperatures are expected for the start of next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 228 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Our two-part rain event is underway. The initial warm
front and convection along the developing occlusion dropped about
0.33-0.67" over northern New York while areas east received about
0.10". The gap between the two has been somewhat larger than
expected, with little to no activity over the last few hours. A vort
max is rounding the southern base of an upper level low, and
moisture is lifting northward in a favorable upper level
environment. The strip of rain is rather narrow, but it should
expand as it moves towards the area of greater upper diffluence over
our area and then gets extra help from a little daytime heating
along the periphery of training showers. Vermont will be the main
focus today, though areas east of the Adirondacks will have
favorable east to southeast flow that will produce some orographic
lift. About 0.10" or less is expected in the St. Lawrence Valley,
around 0.25-0.67" for the Adirondacks, and 0.67-1.33" from eastern
slopes into Vermont with some variability for terrain effects. With
recent dryness, this will be beneficial precipitation.
Precipitation will taper off during the day on Friday as the system
shifts east. Some pop up showers are not out of the question Friday
afternoon as skies gradually clear. Cool temperatures aloft, a north-
south jet on the western hemisphere of the upper low, and about 200
J/kg of CAPE could allow for a spot shower or two, mainly over
northern mountains where orographic lift can help with the marginal
forcing.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Once the upper low is out, a positive tilt ridge will
quickly expand northeast. Southwest flow will advect warmer air into
the region. 925mb temps increase towards 15 C, and so lower to upper
70s are forecast. Pressure gradients become somewhat compacted. So
20 to 25 mph gusts during Saturday afternoon are expected. Relative
humidity values become 30-40 percent, but the recent rain should
preclude fire weather concerns.
Saturday night into Sunday, a trough will shift southeastwards. The
bulk of dynamical forcing will be north of the region. A shower or
two could take place, but limited convergence or instability should
keep activity isolated most likely and scattered at most. Somewhat
cooler air will filter in off northwest flow Sunday afternoon along
the international border keeping temperatures closer to 70, while
southern Vermont will still be embedded in a warmer air mass with
upper 70s to near 80.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A warming trend will continue into the first half of
next week as ridging builds into the region. Tuesday looks to be the
warmest day, with high temperatures climbing into the 80s for most
locations, with 925mb temperatures around 22C to 25C. These
temperatures will be the warmest of the year so far, so it is
important to remember to stay safe in warmer temperatures by staying
hydrated and take frequent breaks if working outside. Overnight lows
look to be above normal as well, generally in the upper 40s and 50s,
warming to almost 60 for Tuesday night. A few chances for
precipitation look to be possible early next week as a shortwave
moves through the region, which may impact how high temperatures
climb on Tuesday. A more robust frontal boundary look to move
through the region for mid-week, bring increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Variable flight conditions currently prevail
across the region, ranging from IFR to VFR, as shower activity
continues. Conditions are expected to deteriorate over the next
several hours as low pressure stalls over the region, with lowering
ceilings and ongoing rain showers, with most terminals trending
towards low MVFR or even IFR conditions. The greatest confidence of
IFR development is at KMPV/KSLK/KPBG given this set up, but
intervals of IFR will be possible at any terminals given the
abundant moisture. These conditions are expected to continue through
most of the forecast period, with little improvement expected. Winds
will continue to be southerly at the start of the forecast period,
shifting to become more northerly this morning into the afternoon.
LLWS will be possible, especially at terminals across eastern
Vermont.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Haynes
AVIATION...Kremer
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