157
FXUS61 KBTV 010030
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
730 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 128 PM EST Saturday...
Continued confidence in unseasonably cold temperatures Sunday
Night, and chances for light snowfall Tuesday into Tuesday
Night.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 128 PM EST Saturday...
1. March will start off cold, with well below normal
temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Light and fluffy snow still
on track for Sunday with limited impacts.
2. A return to more seasonable conditions and potential snow
chances for early next week.
3. Warming likely with an active weather pattern forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 128 PM EST Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: As a cold front continues to push through the
region this afternoon, much colder, drier air will filter in
behind for the weekend. Temperatures will sharply fall tonight
from highs in the upper 30s to low 40s down to the single digits
and low teens; a 30- 40 degree drop for some locations. Winds
will shift to the northwest drawing further cold air with 925mb
temperatures falling to the climatological 10-20th percentiles
across the wider valleys by tomorrow morning. A weak thermal
gradient will linger across the southern portions of the region
which will support some light scattered snow showers. There is
not a well defined surface feature to provide a good forcing
mechanism, however, a modest low level jet of 30-40kts should
promote some marginal lift. The best dynamical forcing looks to
be focused in southern Vermont across Rutland and Windsor
Counties where a dusting to locally an inch of light and fluffy
snow is expected with snow ratios up to 20:1. Thermal profiles
further north also depict decent dry low to mid levels which
will be hard to saturate across central and northern Vermont.
Nonetheless, a few flurries could be possible across central
Vermont and the Upper Valley of the Connecticut, but little to
no accumulations are anticipated.
Behind these snow showers, a modified Arctic High will nudge
east leading to clearing skies Sunday night into Monday. Clear
skies, and weakening winds to near calm will help develop
anomalously bitter cold. Sunday night looks like a good
candidate for strong radiative cooling into the 25th-10th
percentile for overnight lows. Locations across the Adirondacks
and St. Lawrence Valley should be able to reach well below zero
with some of the coldest hollows of the Adirondacks falling
towards -15F. Some lingering clouds across Vermont and the
Northeast Kingdom may inhibit efficient radiative cooling at the
beginning of the overnight, but these areas should also see
some clearing close to sunrise, where the climatologically
favored areas could also fall towards -10F, especially in the
Lamoille Valley and Northeast Kingdom. Apparent Temperatures
will near Cold Weather Advisory criteria (-20F) across the
Adirondacks, however, air temperatures should hold below -20F
with less time to cool with an earlier sunrise. Additionally any
increased winds which would normally push us over the -20F
threshold, would lead to more mixing limiting radiative cooling.
These competing factors should be able hold the area above any
cold headlines.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Following the anomalously cold air over the
weekend, the beginning of next week will see a recovery back to
normal and perhaps above normal heading towards mid week. The
Arctic high will be overhead during the day Monday, but ample
sunshine and a subtle waa should help temperatures recover back
to the teens to low 20s, or about 15 to 20 degrees below normal.
Overnight lows will remain cold Monday night as the high drifts
east, but slight southerly flow should limit the radiative
cooling effects for most locations. Some ridge riding clouds
could also reduce any cooling effect across the St. Lawrence and
near the International Border. Lows will dip into the single
digits to teens, with some lingering near zero values in the
Northeast Kingdom as the high shifts east. Strong waa will take
place Tuesday as southerly flow returns, with temperatures
increasing to the mid 30s areawide.
Southern stream energy will riding along the western edge of
the departing high with chances for precipitation chances late
Tuesday. There still remains some uncertainty for the track of a
low pressure system on Tuesday which will impact temperature
profiles, and cloud cover which will play a role for viewing the
"Blood Moon." Best thinking for the Blood Moon viewing is that
any cloud cover Tuesday morning would likely be thin which
should support decent viewing conditions. Model guidance remains
confident in shower activity Tuesday falling as predominately
snow, however, how north the system moves remains in question.
Timing also remains a little uncertain, but there is better
confidence that precipitation potentially could start during the
afternoon hours on Tuesday. The GFS remains the most aggressive
and has been relatively stable with a widespread few inches
across the region. However, the Euro and AI ensembilistic
guidance has shifted south. This shift has been consistent,
outside of the 12Z guidance yesterday and is consistent with a
more detached high which would limit the southerly flow needed
to nudge the system north. There is high confidence in ptype as
it stands, but amounts still remain in question. Typically with
these zonal flow, and transient systems, high snow amounts are
rare, and with PWATs around 0.5," widespread high snowfall is
not expected. The character of any snow would be on the wet side
should any snow fall, with marginal temperatures in the low to
mid 30s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The confluence of upper level systems and a
Bermuda High set up at the surface appears likely to persist
into next week. The trouble with these types of patterns is that
they often involve small, weak features that are moving at a
fast clip. This naturally lends itself to low predictability.
However, reviewing any ensemble suite will indicate that PWATs
estimating the amount of moisture in the atmosphere will rise
above 200% in the midst of the steady stream of systems, and
they favor above normal precipitation. Any deviations in the
plume of moisture or the exact placement of this tightening
thermal gradient will determine how much rain we could observe
going forward. It looks like the most likely time frame for the
next push of moisture will be Thursday evening into Friday, but
model scenarios are not in phase with a wide timing differences.
Expected temperatures will climb into the 40s, perhaps cresting
over 50 F towards the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...A surface front is currently pushing across
northern New York and Vermont, and surface winds are shifting to
northwest and gusty as the front passes. As the wind shift
takes place, winds will trend toward 5 to 10 knots, and likely
stay there through the period. Clear skies will have increasing
clouds once flow is northwesterly (about 01z-03z), ceilings
will return towards 3000-5000 ft agl. Light snow moves in from
the southwest, but the northward extent is uncertain. At this
time, only KSLK and KRUT have prevailing snow, with PROB30s at
KBTV and KMPV about 06z-14z. This activity will shift east
thereafter.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.
Thursday: IFR. Chance RA, Chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Danzig
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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