000
FXUS61 KBTV 261115
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
715 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate through Saturday afternoon. Tranquil
conditions are expected today, and then becoming increasingly breezy
on Saturday. Rain chances return Saturday night into Sunday, with
weak disturbances likely to bring hit or miss, off and on shower
activity throughout the upcoming week. A cold front midweek could
bring a higher chance for precipitation.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 707 AM EDT Friday...The Sun has arisen and warming is
underway. It seems the slightly higher dewpoints overnight kept
most places from getting any cooler than last night. It seems
Montpelier may have briefly dipped down to 21, and if confirmed
will mean that it narrowly broke its record of 22 F set back in
1967. So much of the region is waking to upper teens to lower
30s. With abundant sunshine, expect very quick warming today.
Have a great day! Previous discussion below...
High pressure will bring light winds, low RHs, and seasonable
temperatures. Surface high slides offshore and south winds will
maintain warmer overnight lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s. South
flow increases with gusts up 20 mph Saturday afternoon that will
warm us into the 60s. Clouds and showers approach from the west
late Saturday evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...Deamplifying shortwave trough embedded
within a larger area of upper ridging crosses our CWA overnight
Saturday, pushing a warm front through and advecting a considerably
more moist air mass than we have gotten used to in recent days. Both
the GFS and NAM are in good agreement with a north-south oriented
plume of 1 inch PWATs advecting eastward during the evening into
overnight hours, replacing the 0.3 inch PWATs out ahead of it. To
put in perspective how dramatic that is, we go from the 10th
percentile to the 90th percentile of SPC PWAT sounding climatology
for the Albany, NY upper air site. Forecast soundings indicate some
steep mid-level lapse rates and elevated instability, so a few
rumbles of thunder overnight are not out of the question
particularly across northern NY. It does look like the bulk of the
rain should fall during the overnight hours, with the rain becoming
more showery and scattered in nature during the day on Sunday. It is
worth noting that dew points on Sunday will rise into the 50s to
even near 60, especially across the St Lawrence Valley and west of
the Adirondacks in northern NY. With a bit of sunshine, temperatures
would easily rise into the upper 60s or low 70s. As for Vermont, we
start out Sunday with dew points in the 40s but 50s dew points will
also overspread the state by mid day into the afternoon hours. This
would result in a few hundred joules of CAPE, so a few rumbles of
thunder are not out of the question mainly across our northern
zones. While there would be rain drops to dodge on Sunday, it would
not be a washout either. The uptick in humidity and possible rumbles
of thunder would serve as a reminder that summer is not too far
away. Overall temperatures will be on the slightly warmer than
normal with highs on Sunday in the mid 60s to low 70s, except cooler
across the Adirondacks and northeast Vermont. Overnight lows will
generally be in the 40s to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...The upper level pattern for the first part
of the long term forecast involves pieces of weak shortwave energy
embedded within a larger ridge axis slowly shifting eastward from
the Appalachia into the eastern seaboard. Model guidance has
generally trended cooler for the highs on Monday given the abundance
of cloud cover and northerly or northeasterly flow. Tuesday high
temperatures look to be considerably warmer across northern NY and
the Champlain Valley, but cooler east of the Green Mountains. While
southerly flow out ahead of an advancing cold front should send
highs for the former into the mid 60s to near 70, highs for the
latter could struggle to make it out of the 50s. In addition, the
cold front that is expected to cross the CWA sometime on Tuesday
should provide the best chance for more widespread thunderstorms. At
this time, severe weather is not expected but some stronger storms
cannot be ruled out, particularly across northern NY into the
Champlain Valley. Following the cold frontal passage, partial
sunshine should return sometime mid week although blue bird days
like we experienced recently might be a challenge given the northern
stream jet energy remains fairly active near the international
border. It is also worth noting that the CPC 8-14 day temperature
outlook has trended from probabilities favoring above normal
temperatures to near normal. For reference, typical highs for the
first days of May across North Country are in the low to mid 60s.
Given the forecast uncertainty, have largely stuck to a blend of
guidance for middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Strong high pressure will maintain all
VFR with no clouds or fog. Winds will follow tertiary flow
patterns with light easterly drainage flows for BTV/RUT and calm
conditions elsewhere overnight. A weak lake breeze is likely
after 13Z so expect easterlies at PBG with light westerly winds
for BTV. Upslope flow pattern after 13Z will drive light
westerly for RUT. Then after 00z, winds return to calm or weakly
terrain driven, although southeast winds at KRUT could increase
to 8 knots with its southeast drainage wind.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
April 29:
KBTV: 55/2013
KPBG: 57/1974
April 30:
KPBG: 54/2004
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Chai
LONG TERM...Chai
AVIATION...Haynes
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
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