452
FXUS61 KBTV 271139
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
639 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 120 AM EST Tuesday...No changes were needed. A Nor`easter
is being monitored, but probabilistic guidance suggests it will
remain well away from the region at this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 120 AM EST Tuesday...
1. Periods of isolated to scattered snow showers
expected through Thursday night.
2. Cold temperatures/wind chills Thursday night.
3. A Nor`easter looks to remain mostly east of the region
Sunday and Sunday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 120 AM EST Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cyclonic flow with below normal temperatures
will provide several opportunities for snow showers as a couple
weak disturbances progress eastwards. Today, one such system
will approach late morning into the afternoon. Southwesterly
flow ahead of it will draw lake effect snow showers northwards.
Sufficient lift and moisture for snow showers will be present as
the system moves overhead, but the feature is not overly dynamic
with no favorable jet structure or anything of that nature.
Outside the lake effect in southern St. Lawrence Valley dropping
1-3" (locally 4" possible), an extra coating to a few tenths of
snow is expected in showers is likely today.
Snow will taper off as the trough shifts east Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Most of Wednesday will be quiet beneath a shortwave
ridge, but another trough will shift east Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. The surface reflection is rather weak, and so
lower PoPs are anticipated, but snow showers could still occur,
mainly over favorable upslope regions.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: A reinforcing shot of cold air enters Thursday
and drops temperatures further for Thursday night into Friday.
Cold air advection should continue through Thursday night for
most places, keeping the boundary layer coupled and some wind
around. These winds, combined with the cold temperatures, look
to drop wind chills into the -15 to -25 degree range for most
places. However, there is some uncertainty regarding on how low
they go. This could end up being a case where either temperatures
fall to their current lows or even farther, or winds stay up
but temperatures are warmer then forecast. These could end up
causing higher wind chills than forecast. Model guidance is
still split on the amount the boundary layer will decouple and
how many clouds will be around, but as the forecast stands, a
Cold Weather Advisory would need to be at least issued for the
Adirondacks.
.KEY MESSAGE 3: Another powerful nor`easter looks to move up
the Eastern Seaboard over the weekend, behaving as a now
uncommon Miller Type A storm. A vast majority of model guidance
keeps the snow over southern New England and Maine or points
east. Trends have been relatively consistent or shifting the
storm track slightly east, so as it stands, the storm does not
look to bring significant snow to the region, though it will
still be watched. Probabilities of an inch from the GEFS/EPS/CAN
ensemble blend are around 30 percent for eastern areas dropping
to 10 percent for the St. Lawrence Valley. Based on the
pattern, there does not look to be the potential for a
significant shift north/west like there was for the previous
snowstorm.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Some MVFR ceilings are still linger at
KEFK and intermittently appearing at KMPV. Additionally, light
snow is still present near KSLK and KEFK. This could result in
brief dips to 1-4SM at both locations over the next few hours.
Most locations are VFR, though. After 15z, a trough will
approach from the west and gradually spread snow showers
eastwards, with the highest confidence at KMSS and KSLK of 2SM
about 15z to 21-22z. Elsewhere, mainly noted PROB30s, especially
since snow showers should decay spreading eastwards. Winds today
will become south to southwesterly at 5 to 10 knots, with a few
gusts up to 15 or 16 knots ahead of the trough. Once the trough
exits after 00z, winds will slow down and remain mostly
southwesterly at 5 knots or less. Any lingering cloud cover
should move closer to the surface, and so pockets of MVFR will
remain possible.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Myskowski
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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