725
FXUS61 KBTV 101134
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
634 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Another widespread light snow event with some wintry mix will
develop tonight, with slippery travel expected. Snow showers on
Sunday will transition into northwesterly upslope snowfall
Sunday night. Thereafter, active weather will continue as
temperatures go from a bit above normal through midweek to much
colder late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 219 AM EST Saturday...
*A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for the southern Greens
where highest confidence in ice accumulations exists tonight.
Elsewhere, expect a mix of all precipitation types, favoring
more snow farther north.
Winds are rapidly relaxing this morning from west to east with
high pressure building into the region. The position of high
pressure just north of the International Border will help
shallow cold air drain southward through the day, while
temperatures aloft begin to warm again ahead of our incoming
storm for tonight. As a result of only marginally cold surface
temperatures and wet bulb cooling processes, initially
precipitation will be mainly snow but then will become a
complicated wintry mix. A period of warming aloft associated
with stout thermal advection will occur from south to north,
such that the sleet/freezing rain line will generally progress
northward through the evening and early morning, then
precipitation should quickly trend towards all snow again as
winds aloft switch from southerly to westerly with passage of
an occluded front from the west. Modeled 850 millibar
temperatures suggest stronger warming will occur in northern
New York, where the typical low level southeasterly flow will
support plain rain in much of St. Lawrence and Franklin
Counties, with much more uncertain, frozen precipitation favored
in the St. Lawrence Valley and eastern portions of the
Adirondacks. A deeper cold layer will build in Vermont as the
high pressure area retreats into the Gulf of Maine. The
influence of easterly flow will provide more of a snow/sleet
mix for much northern Vermont, especially east of the Green
Mountains, with greater potential for freezing rain in the
higher terrain.
Surface temperatures will be very difficult and obviously
critical with regards to ice accumulation. While confidence in
ice accumulations are not as high as in Rutland and Windsor
counties, the western slopes in Addison and Chittenden counties
certainly, if could enough, will be susceptible to freezing
rain in this setup overnight. Snow accumulations where
precipitation remains mainly snow do not look too heavy, with
poor efficiency given expected near freezing surface
temperatures and very high snow growth zone that will be
saturated for only 3 to 6 hours or so. Precipitation rates,
however, will briefly be moderately heavy, with liquid amounts
near 0.05-0.1" per hour for at least a couple of hours. Think
relatively late evening timing on a Saturday will mitigate
impacts, but caution should be advised even if snow total
amounts look mainly under 3 inches.
Snowfall will become more localized/scattered during the day on
Sunday, with a potent upper level low coming through but with
two competing low pressure systems to our west and east we lose
out on having any strong thermal gradients/fronts to help
generate precipitation. Snow showers still look most favored
during the day in eastern portions of Vermont, and then more so
in northern New York late in the day associated with lake-effect
off of Lake Ontario. Snow during this period will tend to become
much fluffier, as thermal profiles shift towards much colder
cloud temperatures closer to the surface. By evening, total
snowfall will range widely from 1 to 4 inches in most locations,
likely greatest across Lamoille, Orleans, and Essex Counties in
Vermont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 219 AM EST Saturday...
*Key Point: Upslope snow and blustery conditions Sunday night
A relatively brief period of westerly upslope snow is on track
for Sunday night. This event does not look particularly notable
for snowfall due to how quickly deep moisture departs and
overly strong winds. A couple hours of moderately heavy snow
showers will probably transition to light showers and flurries
towards daybreak, with a fresh inch to locally a few inches
possible in the foothills of the northern Greens. May need to
increase gusts in forecast updates based on trends of the
deepening of the departing low pressure system and the
subsequent well mixed west-northwest flow over our region
showing 30 to 40 knots of winds at the top of the mixed layer.
Otherwise, breezy conditions will persist into Monday with winds
trending southwesterly ahead of our next system that may spread
snow showers into northern New York by the end of the day.
Temperatures look very seasonably, staying below freezing but
not by much; highs will likely be in the upper 20s to lower 30s
for most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 122 AM EST Saturday...An unsettled weather pattern will persist
through much of next week. A few mountain snow showers will linger
Monday night into early Tuesday. Then more widespread precipitation
is expected for Tuesday night through Wednesday night as upper low
pressure digs into the Great Lakes, allowing a series of low
pressure/frontal systems to push across the Northeast CONUS. There`s
still lots of uncertainty as to how much the northern and southern
streams can phase, and where surface lows will track. The first
looks to remain north of the international border Wednesday;
temperatures would warm into the mid 30s to around 40F, and wider
valleys could see snow mix with and/or change to rain during the
daylight hours. Uncertainty grows thereafter as some guidance shows
high pressure settling over our region while others try to develop
additional low pressure systems along a frontal boundary draped
along the East Coast. Have stayed close to the NBM for now, showing
cooler temperatures for week`s end after Wednesday`s relative
warmth, and keeping at least low chances of snow showers Thursday
into Friday, especially in the northern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z Sunday...VFR with localized MVFR expected to
prevail through the first half of the TAF period, with all
terminals trending toward VFR by 14z or shortly thereafter as
ceilings lift and scatter out. KSLK/KEFK/KMPV/KMSS most likely
sites to hold onto MVFR ceilings until 14z. Otherwise, ceilings
expected to remain SCT- BKN AOA 3500 ft through 00z Sun.
Conditions deteriorate thereafter as widespread wintry mix of
precipitation moves into the region. Ceilings will lower to MVFR
and visibilities down to 2-5 SM in a mix of snow, sleet,
freezing rain, and plain rain. Winds trending N to NW around 5
kt through the daylight hours Sat, then turning to the S/SE
after 00z Sun with LLWS at all terminals overnight.
Outlook...
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Sunday for VTZ019-020.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Sunday for NYZ034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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