663
FXUS61 KBTV 030117
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
917 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 239 PM EDT Thursday...
Precipitation amounts are on the downward trend, with many models
suggesting slightly lower QPF amounts than 24 hours ago. With this
downward trend, ice accumulation is also looking more isolated,
sticking to higher elevations and cold hollows east of the Greens.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 239 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Light wintry precipitation and light icing are likely in the
mountains and much of Vermont east of the Green Mountains
tonight and early Friday morning. Slick travel conditions are
possible.
2. Unseasonably warm conditions expected Friday with showers,
thunderstorms, and gusty winds as high as 35-45 knots likely in
the Champlain Valley and higher elevations.
3. Another storm system will bring widespread, at times heavy,
rainfall this weekend. The combination of this widespread rainfall
and additional higher elevation snowmelt continues to bring the
expectation of sharp river rises with low risk of reaching bankful.
4. Light snow showers and cooler conditions expected early next
week, turning more seasonable by mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 239 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: This afternoon, high pressure is stationed across
Quebec, New Brunswick, and Maine. Southerly flow aloft will be
increasing into the evening hours as a low pressure system currently
centered over the Plains shifts into the Great Lakes, then
southeastern Ontario, tonight. Gradient winds will become enhanced
as the low pressure approaches northern New York and Vermont,
resulting in modest warm air advection and increased surface winds,
particularly in north-south oriented valleys like the Champlain
Valley where funneling may occur. A strong low level jet streak of
up to 60-65 knots at 850 mb will also become directly overhead
tonight, bringing with it the potential for southerly surface gusts
up to 35-45 knots by early Friday morning. However, a low level
inversion may limit some of the strongest gusts. Despite the warm
air advection and southerly flow, we are expecting portions of the
northern Adirondacks and Greens eastward in Vermont to hold onto
cold air at the surface tonight due to Cold Air Damming. While the
St. Lawrence and Champlain valleys will likely have temperatures in
the mid 30s and 40s, most other spots will see lows fall into the
lower 30s. As a result, as light precipitation spreads northeastward
this evening, we`ll see a minor freezing rain event develop in
portions of central and eastern Vermont as well as the higher peaks
and cold hollows of the Adirondacks. The degree of cold air will be
fairly marginal such that it`ll take time for temperatures to fall
below freezing and this sub-freezing air will tend to settle in the
mid-slopes of the Greens. Lower elevations, such as in the Upper
Valley and in the vicinity of Lake Memphremagog, will likely stay
just above freezing tonight. Overall ice accumulations will range
from a light glaze to a quarter of an inch of ice possible at the
highest peaks. Total precipitation amounts are expected to be
in the 0.05-0.40" range, with highest amounts in the St.
Lawrence Valley.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Southwesterly winds aloft will continue to blow
across northern New York and Vermont on Friday, with 850 mb
levels likely seeing 60-65 knots throughout the day. A deep low
level inversion could limit how much of this mixes down to the
surface, but high winds will be low enough in elevation that
southerly surface gusts 35-45 knots seem likely in the Champlain
Valley and at higher elevations on Friday morning. Temperatures
on Friday are anticipated to reach the 60s for most despite
lingering clouds and rain, which will be 15-20 degrees above
seasonal normals for early April in this region. A few rumbles
of thunder are likely given the warmth and passage of a couple
frontal boundaries Friday. Winds will see a gradual decrease
again Friday night as the jet moves eastward and high pressure
noses in from Hudson Bay. Total rainfall amounts from Friday and
Friday night are anticipated to be anywhere from a couple
hundredths of an inch to a third of an inch, with highest
amounts occurring in northern Vermont along the international
border.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Cooler and drier northwesterly winds will filter in for
Saturday, which has trended cooler but pleasant with highs in the
mid 50s and lower 60s. Clouds will be on the increase ahead of the
next storm system, which is likely to bring precipitation to
northern New York by the end of the day, spreading to Vermont
Saturday night from west to east. A narrow plume of deep moisture
riding out ahead of cold front will ensure widespread rainfall that
could be briefly heavy. The combination of this widespread rainfall
and additional higher elevation snowmelt continues to bring the
expectation of sharp river rises with low risk of reaching bankful.
Southeasterly surface winds will increase Saturday night as the 850
mb jet reaches as high as 65-70 knots out of the southwest, though a
deep low level inversion sets up again to limit mixing. Temperatures
will remain relatively mild Saturday night in the upper 30s to mid
40s for most. On Sunday, a sharp frontal boundary will flip
winds to a more westerly or southwesterly direction at the
surface, and high temperatures look similar to Saturday. Total
rainfall Saturday into Sunday is expected to reach around
0.30-1.10", with highest rainfall amounts in northern New
York/the St. Lawrence Valley.
KEY MESSAGE 4: Upper level troughing behind a cold front Sunday will
draw below average northwest Canadian air into the region with
several lobes of embedded shortwave energy. The 540dm line will sink
south of the region promoting both below average highs on Monday in
the low 40s along with enough cold air in the mid to upper levels to
sustain snow growth. Troughing riding along an area of high pressure
across the Great Lakes will bring chances for snow showers, mainly
diurnally driven, as the mid and upper levels cool with steepening
lapse rates. With these steepening lapse rates, Monday afternoon
will be breezy with occasional winds gusts around 20 MPH, weakening
by Monday evening. Snow showers should be more confined to the
northern Greens and Northeast Kingdom as well as the Adirondacks,
but a flurry in the Champlain Valley cannot be ruled out.
Temperatures in the deeper valleys and below 2000ft agl will not be
conducive for any accumulation but rather some light flurries mixed
with some light rain at times. Some summit levels may see a dusting
to a tenth or two, but no impacts are expected. These showers will
be very shallow with the equilibrium level only around 800mb further
supporting little to no accumulations. Given the northwest flow,
snow showers may persist into Tuesday, but by Tuesday night, high
pressure will finally shift east from the Great Lakes bringing an
end to any lingering snow showers. With the high pressure,
temperatures will trend towards normal to above normal by mid to
late week with some showers chances by late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...LLWS will be the main aviation threat
this forecast period with some IFR/MVFR CIGs being the secondary
threat. A low level jet slowly moves through the region
overnight and tomorrow with 60kts in the 2000-5000ft layer
resulting in both speed and directional shear promoting
hazardous flying conditions. Otherwise, A mix of MVFR and VFR
conditions currently prevail across the region this afternoon
with ceilings generally between 2000 and 3500 ft AGL. While rain
showers are expected across all terminals overnight, there is a
small chance that eastern Vermont terminals could see freezing
rain, although the chances are too small to include in the
forecast. Ceilings will continue to lower overnight with the
increased moisture, with most terminals between 1200 and 1500ft
AGL by tomorrow morning, with some lingering mist leading to
reduced visibilities. While winds stay up aloft overnight, there
is a decent chance of some IFR at MPV/EFK/SLK; some was added
08-14Z. SFC winds will continue to strengthen throughout the TAF
period, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots possible before speeds
begin to taper down after 22Z.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for VTZ003-004-
006>008-010-018>021.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Storm
AVIATION...Boyd/Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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