099
FXUS61 KBTV 131905
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
205 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 204 PM EST Friday...
No significant changes with this forecast. Light snow expected
tonight with minor accumulations.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 204 PM EST Friday...
1. A quick shot of light snow tonight into Saturday will bring
minimal accumulations of an inch or less.
2. Another round of snow possible Sunday night into Monday,
with only minor impacts possible to the Monday morning commute. Any
lingering snow Monday afternoon could change over to rain.
3. Difficult travel is possible next week with opportunities
for widespread snowfall, with greatest chances for precipitation
currently on Wednesday and Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 204 PM EST Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: After a beautiful sun-filled day today, clouds will
increase this evening as a upper shortwave approaches from the
northwest. This feature is pretty weak with minimal forcing aside
from orographic effects. Moisture is scanty as well. All that points
to just light snow developing as the shortwave moves overhead
tonight into Saturday. The higher elevations of both the Adirondacks
and the Greens have the best chance of seeing any appreciable snow,
though still anticipate snowfall totals will range from a few
tenths to around an inch, maybe a few spots approaching 2 inches.
Elsewhere, any snow will likely be little more than flurries,
especially in the Champlain and CT Valleys where any accumulation
would just be a dusting. Snow will wind down during the morning
hours on Saturday, ending by mid/late afternoon over the northern
Greens. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will dominate with
highs in the mid 20s to low 30s. Winds will turn to the
west/northwest by the afternoon, mainly 5 to 10 mph with some
locally higher gusts.
KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure will bridge across the region on Sunday,
with the ridge axis shifting east by Sunday evening. This will make
for a pretty nice second half of the weekend, with partly to mostly
sunny skies and highs warming into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Then
another upper shortwave will slide overhead Sunday night into
Monday. This one will have a little more moisture than the previous
system, but still not all that robust, with a developing low off the
Mid Atlantic coast capturing the deeper moisture. So snow amounts
will once again be minimal, an inch or less for most. The
precipitation should quickly wind down Monday morning. However,
should any precipitation linger into the afternoon, it could well mix
with and/or change to rain, especially in the wider valleys, as
temperatures will warm into the mid and upper 30s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A large scale pattern change will lead to areas of low
pressure tracking eastward across the United States next week. These
systems of Pacific origin, along with a jet stream extending east-
northeastward out of the southern Pacific, supports heavier variety
of precipitation events. The first of these expected low pressure
systems will arrive with a relatively mild antecedent air mass over
the area, which leads to questions about precipitation type. with
Tuesday still on track to see temperatures reach into the upper 30s
to mid 40s across the region. In contrast, temperature trends for
Wednesday have markedly cooled from previous forecasts, consistent
with about 80% of global ensemble members fitting into model
clusters showing a low pressure tracking to our south and low level
northerly flow developing as precipitation begins. The shift
southward of the storm track and axis of heaviest precipitation
supports temperatures low enough to lean towards mainly snow as the
precipitation type. At the same time, the National Blend QMD median
precipitation amounts have also trended lower. Associated
precipitation chances have ticked down a little with a lot of
uncertainty remaining given the north-south shifts of the storm
track. Note current indications suggest snow with this event would
be of a wet, dense character, so this could present slippery travel
concerns during commute times.
There is currently better model agreement on an Advisory or greater
snowfall with the second of a pair of potential low pressure systems
later next week to zip across the country. The second one currently
is favored in the Friday timeframe. The National Blend of Models
indicates an 20 to 40% chance of snowfall greater than 4" in the
Friday to Friday night period. Obviously since this is seven days
out in time, expect the forecast to change; however, the signal for
a snowstorm is noteworthy. Like the Wednesday system, the median
footprint of heaviest precipitation is centered just south of the
region but the 90th percentile is rather impressive given higher
likelihood of sub-freezing temperatures; amounts in the 0.6" to 1"
range over 24 hours.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions will continue through the next
six hours, with most sites trending MVFR through the remainder of
the period as an area of very light snow spreads in from the west.
The light snow will tend to diminish further with time, such that
precipitation chances are mainly in the chance category (under 40%)
at Vermont terminals. As such, highest likelihood for light snow to
produce intervals of IFR conditions will be at MSS and SLK. At SLK,
favorable upslope flow will tend to linger chances of snow much
longer, through much of the period. Elsewhere, snow will probably be
intermittent and too light to have much impact. Ceiling heights will
lower somewhat behind a gradual wind shift between 10Z and 16Z
before clouds scatter, as light south/southwest winds become mainly
west to west- northwest.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Washingtons Birthday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO
SIG WX.
Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 204 PM EST Friday...
In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32
degrees was January 22nd. The next time we are forecasting
temperatures rising above 32 in Burlington is next Monday,
February 16th. If that forecast holds, that would be 24 days in
a row below freezing. Sub-freezing temperature streaks this
long are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening
January- February 2015.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Hastings
AVIATION...Kutikoff
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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