891
FXUS61 KBTV 161900
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
300 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 242 PM EDT Saturday...

Probability of precipitation has increased late this afternoon
and evening across the forecast area due to increased confidence
of a line of showers moving through northern New York and
Vermont into tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 242 PM EDT Saturday...

1. Warm weather is expected to continue this weekend, with a
few isolated to scattered showers possible later this afternoon into
the evening.

2. Heat increases further during the first half of next week
with highs in the mid 70s to 80s each afternoon. Remember to
stay safe in warmer temperatures by staying hydrated and taking
frequent breaks if working outside.

3. Thunderstorm chances increase late Tuesday through Wednesday
as a front moves through the region.

4. Cooler and dry to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 242 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface low pressure is tracking across Lake Superior
this afternoon while a preceding upper shortwave approaches northern
New York and Vermont from Lake Huron. This shortwave will bring some
showers to the forecast area later this afternoon and evening,
likely beginning across the St. Lawrence Valley around 4PM - 7PM and
progressing eastward. While elevated instability is non-zero, we`re
not expecting much thunder or even very much measurable rain from
these showers. Best instability occurs around 6 PM into the evening,
when a rumble of thunder is possible. The showers should largely be
short-lived and light, bringing a few hundredths of an inch of
precipitation to the region. Along with these showers, a low level
jet is expected to arrive this evening. Already we`re seeing
afternoon mixing bring wind gusts to around 20 mph in spots. We
anticipate this should continue and increase along the low level jet
this evening, with highest gusts in channeled areas like the St.
Lawrence and Champlain valleys. Under the jet, gusts are expected to
get as high as 25-35 mph in these areas. Temperatures currently in
the 70s for most will fall back down to the upper 40s and 50s
overnight tonight, well above seasonal averages for mid to late May
as the shortwave and showers keep conditions relatively cloudy at
night. Probability of measurable precipitation overnight is around
25-65%. Sunday will be a dry day with high pressure building in from
James Bay in Canada and upper level ridging beginning to build over
the region. A light west-northwesterly breeze will keep temperatures
from getting too high, but skies will be on the sunny side and
temperatures are anticipated to climb into the 70s and lower 80s.
Despite the warm air temperatures, water temperatures are still
quite cold, so please use extreme caution if recreating on bodies of
water this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Upper level ridging will crest over the region on Monday
as a warm front cross the forecast area at the surface, ushering the
region into southerly flow. Temperatures at the 925 mb level are
modeled around 20-25 C by Monday afternoon, resulting in highs at
the surface in the mid 70s to lower 80s F. These temperatures will
be the warmest of the year so far. It is important to remember to
stay safe in warmer temperatures by staying hydrated and take
frequent breaks if working outside, especially after we had such a
cool start to the month. Some folks may not be prepared for the
quick warmup with many window AC units not yet installed for the
summer. Tuesday, we`ll be solidly in the warm sector, with 925 mb
temps 23-26 C and surface highs reaching widespread 80s. One
limiting factor in reaching surface temps in the 80s could be
showers and embedded thunderstorms plus associated clouds, mainly in
the afternoon. More on that in Key Message 3.

KEY MESSAGE 3: As heat and humidity build Tuesday, instability
will also build. A frontal boundary, ridge-riding vort maxes,
and low level jet will cross the forecast area Tuesday afternoon
into a warm, moist air mass with modest instability, 500-1000
J/kg, to work with. Dew points will likely range in the upper
50s and 60s ahead of the front. Showers with embedded
thunderstorms are likely Tuesday afternoon, about 40-80% PoPs
across portions of northern and central Vermont. Tuesday night
into Wednesday, models continue to show a frontal passage that
will likely be a focal point for convection as it tracks through
the region. Timing of the front is currently during the day
hours suggesting added instability associated with heating is
probable. This pattern shows some potential for a few stronger
variety storms with highs in the 70s to mid 80s Wednesday, but
changes in frontal timing could limit or move the window of
concern.

KEY MESSAGE 4: Surface high pressure builds out of Canada for the end
of the week, bringing mostly dry conditions and cooler temperatures.
Highs generally look to be in the 60s and lows look to be in the
40s. With surface high pressure potentially centering overhead,
there is the potential for efficient radiational cooling and frost
freeze concerns in the colder spots, but whether temperatures will
be able to drop far enough remains uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will persist through the
afternoon today with southerly flow resulting in gusts generally
to around 20kts. Some gusts up to 30kts are possible at MSS this
afternoon with flow aligned with the St Lawrence Valley. 22-04Z
a weak trough will move through the region bringing isolated to
scattered rain showers. Best shower chances will be generally
over northern New York and higher terrain of the Greens which
will lead to mountain obscurations. Winds and precip chances
diminish after 04Z as the trough exits. There could be another
round of low CIGs/fog if skies can clear quickly enough behind
the wave, but left that out for now due to low certainty.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Storm/Myskowski
AVIATION...Myskowski