542
FXUS61 KBTV 070620
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
220 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Light rain showers will continue across southern Vermont
today. Otherwise, tranquil weather and seasonable temperatures will
persist through the middle of the week.
2. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon into
Friday as a cold front moves through the region.
3. Seasonably warm and dry heading into the weekend. Shower
chances return to start next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Low pressure passing well to our south will continue to
bring some shower chances to the region throughout the day today,
particularly across southern Vermont. Total rainfall amounts across
southern Vermont generally look to be between 0.25 and 0.5 inches of
precipitation, with a sharp gradient moving north towards central
Vermont where chances of measurable rainfall are low. Some of the
latest CAM guidance shows a few showers popping up across the
Adirondacks and northern New York this afternoon, so did increase
precipitation chances slightly from the NBM. Skies look to trend
clearer as the day progresses, continuing into the overnight hours
allowing for patchy valley fog to develop. Outside of these shower
chances, tranquil weather and seasonable temperatures are expected
to persist across the region today through Thursday morning.
Temperatures today will generally be in the 70s to lower 80s, with
the coolest temperatures across southern Vermont due to the shower
activity and cloud cover. Temperatures will be several degrees
warmer tomorrow, with highs climbing into the 80s to near 90 towards
the afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2: After a brief period of quiet conditions, more active
weather is expected to arrive Thursday ahead of an approaching cold
front. Thursday current looks to be the warmest day of the week,
with temperatures climbing into the 80s and low 90s. The environment
Thursday afternoon and evening is supportive for some scattered
thunderstorms, with the potential for a few strong thunderstorms. A
decent axis of instability looks to move into the region, adding in
the convective potential Thursday. Some of the CAPE profiles do
support heavy rainfall, so this threat will need to be monitored as
we get closer. Shower chances will continue into Friday as the cold
front moves through the region, with showers and thunderstorms
pushing through. As usual, trends will need to be monitored as we
get closer, especially as we get into the time frame for more high-
res guidance.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Behind a cold front on Friday, drier air aloft will
advect from the northwest lending to a comfortable, seasonably warm
weekend. Saturday will be the pick of the weekend with cooler
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and lower dewpoints in the
low 50s. By Sunday, temperatures start to rebound back to the mid to
upper 80s, with a positively tilted long wave trough digging into
the Mid-Atlantic. A cutoff low will dive south from the Ohio Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday. Dry air in the mid to upper levels
should shunt much of the precipitation to our south, but some shower
activity in southern Vermont along the northern periphery of the
system cannot be ruled out. Models then become spread on a system
heading into next week. Spread in how the Mid-Atlantic system
evolves Monday are effecting the progression of a shortwave moving
out of northern Ontario Monday into Tuesday. The GFS depicts a drier
system with more detachment from moisture due to the presence of the
Mid-Atlantic system blocking southerly moisture advection. The Euro
ensembles show the Mid-Atlantic system continuing to dive southeast
out to sea, allowing for a bit more moisture recovery, and a more
defined frontal system sweeping across the North Country.
Regardless, precipitation chances Monday into Tuesday are trending
up along the International Border, though the southward extent of
any shower activity remains uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Most sites will see prevailing VFR through
this entire TAF package. RUT has the highest probabilities of any
terminal reductions this morning from lowering ceilings, with
perhaps some MVFR BR at MSS. As low to mid level clouds shift east
for the remainder of tonight, some clearing may allow for brief
radiational cooling to take place at MSS with a chance of MVFR
vsbys, most likely between 8-10Z. Confidence is low to moderate, but
GLAMP guidance suggests a 30-40% chance of brief MVFR vsbys. At RUT,
lowering ceilings from south to north, after 12Z will see periodic
bouncing ceilings between 2200- 4000 ft agl between 12-18Z. Have used
TEMPO groups, as MVFR reductions do not appear to be prevailing as
they will be shower dependent. Rain showers depart to the southeast
after 18Z, with improvement back to VFR at RUT thereafter. Skies
will trends towards clear by sunset. As skies clear after 00Z
tonight, there will be a chance for some fog in the climatologically
favored sites at MPV/SLK, and perhaps RUT due to morning rains.
Otherwise, any non- specified terminals today will see prevailing VFR
through the entire TAF period.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Kremer
AVIATION...Danzig
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