063
FXUS61 KBTV 231817
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
217 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 216 PM EDT Thursday...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 216 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Dry and seasonably warm weather will continue through the
end of the week as high pressure settles over the region.
2. Unsettled weather returns next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 216 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface high pressure is beginning to build into the
region from the west, where is is currently centered over the Great
Lakes. A few diurnally driven fair weather cumulus clouds have
developed over the higher terrain and downslope regions of the
Adirondacks, but otherwise the rest of today will remain clear and
pleasant. Breezy conditions on the periphery of the high will weaken
towards this evening with winds trending towards calm Our incoming
airmass for the weekend will be quite dry with relative humidities
falling to near 25-30% with dewpoints into the upper 40s to near 50
tomorrow and Saturday. Given how low dewpoints will be with clear
overnight skies, good radiational cooling is expected tonight and
tomorrow night with temperatures cooling to the upper 40s to upper
50s (warmer locations near the Champlain Valley due to the warmer
lake temperatures). A few favored locations in the Adirondacks and
eastern Vermont could even lower to the low to mid 40s tonight and
Friday night. As the center of the high moves overhead Friday into
Saturday, winds will remain calm, with light channeled flow in the
Champlain Valley which could bring some light southerly breezes
around 5-10 mph. Temperatures will gradually warm tomorrow and
Saturday with highs increasing towards the upper 80s by Saturday.
Thankfully, humidity will remain low with an unfavorable moisture
advection pattern. A pattern change will begin late Sunday with the
approach of a weak cold front as our pattern turns more troughy
into next week. General expectations are that the bulk of any
precipitation will hold off until Sunday night, though a few
isolated terrain driven showers may be possible Sunday afternoon in
the Adirondacks.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A weak omega block is slated to develop across the US
for much of next week as the Bermuda high across the western
Atlantic builds northward with a strengthening ridge also expected
across the west/central US. This will leave New England underneath
an upper level trough which will likely bring diurnal rain and/or
thunderstorm chances with temperatures at or slightly below seasonal
normals. Monday and Tuesday right now appear to be the wettest days
of the upcoming week as a cold front should slowly push through the
region as a lack of deep layer flow will struggle to push the front
eastward. This could lead to a period of moderate rainfall but
rainfall rates themselves will not be too impressive given the
deeper moisture will be shunted much further south and east. Behind
the cold front on Wednesday, we will see steep mid-level lapse rates
due to cooler air sinking south which will support diurnal showers
and maybe a rumble of thunder. WPC does have us in a marginal ERO
for Monday but the lack of deep moisture will likely preclude any
flooding potential.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
period. Some mid- level cumulus has developed today due to plentiful
sunshine with these clouds expected to dissipate following sunset
leading to mostly clear skies overnight into Friday morning. Gusty
south/southwest winds are expected to continue through 23Z-00Z with
light and variable winds expected overnight. There is a low chance
we could see some "sunrise surprise" fog at KMPV and KSLK but the
probability is below 30%. Winds will be lighter on Friday with winds
from the south at less than 10 knots.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Clay/Danzig
AVIATION...Clay
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