996
FXUS61 KBTV 230645
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
245 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and showery pattern will persist into the weekend, though
additional precipitation totals will be mostly light. Lake effect
showers will enhance the precipitation at times across parts of
northern New York. High elevation snow showers will occur,
supporting light snow accumulations on mountain summits. Conditions
will trend drier heading into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 243 AM EDT Thursday...A large upper level low is slowly
building into the region, bringing a cooler and showery pattern.
After the passage of an embedded shortwave today, southwesterly flow
has initiated impressive lake effect showers off Lake Ontario and
into ST. Lawrence County. The most favored areas could see close to
an inch of rain. Elsewhere, precipitation totals will be relatively
light. Temperatures at the highest summits in the Adirondacks have
fallen below freezing and they will likely remain there through this
period. As colder air gradually works its way into the region
heading into Friday, freezing levels will drop and the snow levels
will drop into the Green Mountains and should reach some of the mid
slopes. A few flakes are possible in some of the Adirondack towns
Friday morning, but no accumulations are expected there. The showers
look to be enhanced for a period of time on Friday as another
shortwave pivots through, but the coverage should still be scattered
in most places, outside the favored upslope areas where more
continuous showers are possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 243 AM EDT Thursday...Atmospheric moisture will become much
more shallow for Saturday, with it looking to drop out of the snow
growth zone for a period of time. Combined with weaker forcing, the
precipitation will likely become more of a mist/drizzle and it will
become more restricted to the mountains and upslope areas. However,
the broad cyclonic flow will keep clouds around for most areas,
though there could be enough downsloping at times for a few breaks
of sun in the valleys, particularly the lower Connecticut.
Temperatures will remain cool, with highs in the 40s and low 50s.
With temperatures remaining below freezing at the summits, it will
likley turn into a situation with a lot more riming than actual
snow.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 243 AM EDT Thursday...The cutoff low is strongly favored to
persist into the extended forecast keeping shower chances ongoing
over the weekend into early next week. This pattern favors terrain
induced showers in absence of strong lifting mechanisms under
cyclonic curvature aloft with cooler mountain top temperatures and
slightly below to near average valley temperatures. Temperatures
expected to range in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s in the afternoons
and a modest overnight warming trend from upper 20s/low 30s over the
weekend into the 30s for early/mid next week. Model spread increases
sharply by Tuesday with questions on pattern evolution related to
high pressure potentially building across portions of the Northeast
before influence of multiple low pressure systems bring chances for
widespread showers back possibly by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Ample moisture is lingering behind yesterday`s
sharp trough passage keeping CIGs generally MVFR/VFR mix with MTN
obscurations. Some IFR CIGs are possible at SLK/MPV mainly, but flow
regime points to high chances of MVFR. The next wave to move through
could bring a few moderate shower elements 15-22Z with potential for
some MVFR/IFR VIS in rain/mist. This wave isn`t as potent as
yesterday`s, so winds/VIS should generally be less impacted. Can`t
rule out small graupel given low freezing level, but these should be
fewer and farther between. Thunderstorms are not favored given lower
projected instability and forcing. Icing may be a factor for
aircraft without deicing capabilities; be sure to check out issued
AIRMETs.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...BTV
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