565
FXUS61 KBTV 190525
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
125 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 746 PM EDT Thursday...
The Wind Advisory is no longer in effect across the region.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 308 PM EDT Thursday...
1. As the risk of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain ends this
afternoon, more localized and non-severe thunderstorms will remain
possible through this evening, especially near the International
Border. Additional showers with a slight chance of thunder will
occur at times through each of the next three days with limited
impacts expected.
2. A Wind Advisory remains through 8 PM, although the threat of
damaging winds has decreased. Breezy, but less strong, winds will
continue through Saturday associated with the low pressure system as
it slowly exits to our northeast.
3. Seasonable Late June Temperatures Early-Mid Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 344 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A dynamically forced line of heavy rain showers with
embedded severe thunderstorms materialized today, but thankfully
instability proved too limited to see more significant winds in
most of the region. Moving into the evening, because the
surface cold front lags behind this line, there will be
additional shower and thunderstorm chances, primarily in far
northern New York where a line of thunderstorms has move along
the St. Lawrence River Valley, and perhaps swinging eastward
into Vermont. The near storm environment is very different than
the one we have seen with the earlier impactful thunderstorms,
with less precipitable water associated with dry mid-level air
and lower shear, with effective shear only near 30 knots. So the
main hazard with any additional thunderstorms will be frequent
lightning. This will be the trend into the weekend with
additional rounds of showers, with a lack of wind shear and
cooler temperatures we don`t expect any severe weather. A broad
upper level trough with embedded upper level circulations will
promote periods of numerous showers, such as on Friday evening
and Saturday morning in particular looking rather raw for this
time of year with breezy west winds and cool temperatures into
the 50s. A final round of scattered showers on Sunday afternoon
looks less certain with the forcing being unclear, but signal in
increasing precipitation chances is consistent with diurnally
driven instability as the air mass moderates a bit and we have
lingering moist low level air in place.
KEY MESSAGE 2: We have seen substantial wind damage today
despite largely underachieving on observed winds so far through
mid afternoon. Given the reports and continued potential for
gusty west to southwest winds this evening, the Wind Advisory
remains in effect through 8 PM. The winds aloft are largely
westerly at this point, which leads to some concerns of
downsloping enhancement into the mid-slope areas in the eastern
Adirondacks and southern Greens, with areas like Ticonderoga
likely to see additional 45 to 50 MPH wind gusts and perhaps
into areas like Bridgewater later this evening as westerly 850
millibar flow peaks. As with the thunderstorm potential,
impactful winds through the next couple of days are not expected
although gradient westerly flow on Friday and northwest flow on
Saturday will support deeper mixing. Gusts will be frequent but
more notable in the higher terrain as apparent temperature
(wind chills) fall into the 40s at elevations above 3000 feet.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Hazardous weather is not expected in the Days 4-7
period. 12Z NWP suite maintains broad NWLY mid-upper level flow for
late in the weekend through the middle portion of next week.
Uncertainty associated with timing of embedded shortwave troughs
remains, with current idea that closed upper low approaching from
the upper Great Lakes will bring widespread showers across nrn NY
and VT on Sunday. Associated cloud cover should keep highs mainly in
the 70s, with some upper 60s possible in the nrn Adirondacks.
Additional (smaller) chances for rain showers exist Monday and
Tuesday. Gradual building of 700-500mb heights Tuesday-Wednesday
should allow temperatures to trend slightly warmer for Days 6/7,
with valley highs trending into the lower 80s. Humidity levels will
remain modest, with dewpoints generally in the 50s to near 60.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Ceilings and winds continue to be the
aviation challenge this morning with conditions ranging from IFR
at SLK to MVFR at EFK/MSS to VFR elsewhere. Thinking CIGS will
wobble between MVFR and IFR at SLK thru 14z, so have tempo those
conditions. Elsewhere, MVFR cigs will persist at EFK and
probably develop at MPV, before slowly improving after 12z.
Winds continue to be gusty at 10 to 15 knots with gusts 15 to 25
knots, from a westerly direction. These winds prevail most of
the day, before decreasing around sunset. Additional showers
with pockets of MVFR CIGS/VIS are likely after 18z thru 00z this
evening across our northern and central terminals.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 308 PM EDT Thursday...
Daily record precipitation amount was achieved for the Saranac
Lake Area, so far at 1.16" for the day. A daily record
precipitation for Montpelier is possible as well, with the
current amount at 0.73".
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer/Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Banacos/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Taber
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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