718
FXUS61 KBTV 241819
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
219 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 218 PM EDT Friday...
No significant changes were made with this forecast package.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 218 PM EDT Friday...
1. Dry conditions will continue through the beginning of next
week.
2. Dry, warm, and windy weather is likely on Tuesday ahead of
widespread rainfall late Tuesday night into Wednesday, kicking off a
showery period through the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 218 PM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure will continue to build across Vermont and
the North Country through the weekend into the beginning of next
week. Some gusty north winds are being observed as we are on the
boundary from departing low pressure and building high pressure
which has increased the pressure gradient across the region. As the
high builds further south, the pressure gradient will relax and lead
to much lighter winds for the upcoming weekend. With clear skies and
light winds once again expected tonight, we expect temperatures to
drop into the lower 20s to lower 30s with the coldest temperatures
expected across the Northeast Kingdom and northern Adirondacks. A
warming trend will be observed this weekend into Monday with
temperatures a good 2 to 5 degrees warmer with each subsequent day.
In terms of fire weather concerns, slightly higher mix RH values are
expected across the region this weekend with min RH vales generally
in the 30-40% range with a few pockets a little lower than 30%. With
the lighter winds expected this weekend, we don`t foresee any fire
weather concerns but still advise everyone to follow any burn bans
in place (like New York) and follow the advise of local fire wardens.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Monday night will feature upper level ridging and
surface high pressure building out of Quebec and the Canadian
maritimes, resulting in seasonable or just below seasonable
temperatures and mainly clear skies. Depending on how much clearing
we get, temperatures may fall lower than forecast, particularly in
the cold hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Then on
Tuesday, a low pressure system will cross the Great Lakes,
increasing southerly flow and pushing temperatures above seasonable
normals, particularly on the northern slopes of the Adirondacks with
highs approaching the 70s for broader valleys. As a Rex Block type
of pattern sets up with dry air at the surface, precipitation with
this system is likely to hold off until at least Tuesday night,
perhaps even Wednesday. All of that together, we anticipate some
fire weather concerns on Tuesday with RHs bottoming out near
critical levels while gusty southerly winds occur. Once rain does
arrive, models differ on how much rain to expect and how long rain
lingers through the week. The deterministic GFS wants to keep rain
showers around through the end of the week with lingering multi-
level low pressure while the ECMWF is slow to push the rain through,
but eventually we see high pressure and a break from showers return
by the end of the week. Most model blends sit the precip amount
around 0.10" in 24 hours Wednesday through Wednesday night. The late
April/early May sun angle will support surface temperatures in the
50s and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Dry weather continues into the start of next
week. VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Northerly
to northwesterly winds 5-15 knots with gusts 15-25 knots will
continue through around 21Z-23Z Friday before decreasing and losing
the gust element around 00Z-02Z Saturday. Then, winds are expected
to switch around to a widespread northeasterly wind direction 5-10
knots overnight tonight as a low pressure system passes to our
southwest across the mid- Atlantic. Some areas may see a period of
variable or terrain-driven winds overnight as flow gets lighter,
including KMPV (variable) and KRUT (southeasterly drainage wind).
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Clay/Storm
AVIATION...Storm
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