000
FXUS61 KBTV 251404
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1004 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
We remain on the northern fringes of a post-tropical storm with
cloud cover and rain showers continuing to our south. Large
Canadian surface high pressure ridging into our area form the
north. Aside from isolated afternoon showers in the higher
elevations this afternoon, high pressure will effectively build
in through the upcoming week. As a result, seasonable and dry
weather will prevail through the end of the week and possibly
beyond.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1001 AM EDT Monday...Fog and/or low stratus is holding
strong across Chittenden and Addison Counties, as well as
around Montpelier this morning. Showers remain south with a
strip of smoke, mainly aloft but even some at the surface, that
is making for a milky sky. Mainly noise level adjustments made
to the forecast based on hourly observations with the rest in
great shape. Previous discussion follows.
Surface ridge will build into our region out of Canada, and
some smoke will be evident on northerly flow from Canadian
wildfires. We also once again have patchy fog that has developed
overnight, especially in areas that have cleared out. Have
continued with slight chance for showers this afternoon,
especially over the higher terrain of the Adirondacks. HRRR
continues to show smoke in the upper levels of the atmosphere
over our region for today. Smoke is not expected to cause
respiratory issues with low concentrations near the surface
based on both upstream observations and modeling. We will likely
see fog develop tonight once again, especially in the typically
fog prone areas. Tuesday will be an ideal fall day with high
pressure continuing to ridge into our area. We will have sunny
skies and seasonable temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...Tuesday night might be the chilliest
night of the week as the high pressure sits directly overhead,
providing strong subsidence and radiational cooling. Typically
cold portions of the Adirondacks could even briefly reach
freezing temperatures and feature frost during the coldest pre-
dawn hours of the night. Lows outside of these cold spots will
be in the upper 30s to mid-40s, mildest along Lake Champlain,
whose waters are still relatively warm. The night continues to
look favorable for patchy fog in river valleys. A gorgeous dry
and mostly sunny day is in store for the midweek with highs
peaking just a couple degrees above average in the upper 60s to
lower 70s and light/variable winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...Models continue to show the high
breaking down toward the weekend, but overall the impacts are
minimal as we`re still looking at dry weather through early next
week for the forecast area with perhaps some increased clouds
for the weekend/early next week. Highs still look above average
in the upper 60s to lower 70s with lows gradually moderating
from upper 30s - upper 40s late week to mid-40s - mid-50s next
week and nights featuring valley fog.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Dense fog remains at MPV this morning,
with some BR at EFK/PBG and low ceilings at BTV. Conditions
should improve to VFR areawide by about 14z. Mid to high clouds
continue across southern Vermont. Winds will pick up out of the
north, and then east winds increase. Beyond 13z, wind speeds
pick up to 8 to 14 knots sustained with gusts 15 to 20 knots
possible, particularly at KMSS. Fair weather cumulus with bases
5000-7000 ft agl are likely between 15z and 21z. After 22z,
winds will begin to subside, but remain around 4 to 8 knots. Fog
formation will be possible again tonight.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Neiles
|
