737
FXUS61 KBTV 190518
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
118 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 240 PM EDT Saturday...

Risk of strong to severe thunderstorms has decreased for the
rest of today, with lower thunderstorm chances as well.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 240 PM EDT Saturday...

1. While the threat of damaging winds in our area has
decreased, rounds of showers with a few thunderstorms will
continue into this evening. Meanwhile, near surface smoke has
returned to much of our region but will be replaced by cleaner
air and low humidity for Sunday and Monday.

2. Chances of showers and a few thunderstorms return for later
Tuesday into Wednesday, otherwise mainly fair and seasonable
weather is expected to end the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1:

A vigorous shortwave trough diving southeastward over eastern
Ontario alongside a moderately deep low pressure system is
promoting widespread precipitation and areas of deep convection
across the Northeastern US. The system`s warm front is having a
hard time pushing east/northeastward, such that isentropic lift
has been generating steady rain with embedded downpours across
northern New York and Vermont. As a result, the possibility of
our region becoming destabilized via surface heating has greatly
diminished today`s potential severe weather event. The limited
threat area is trending towards the St. Lawrence Valley where
MLCAPE is progged to surge to near 1000 J/kg by 7 PM amidst
partial clearing, which could be sufficient for localized
damaging wind if there is some storm organization/linear
convection in the late afternoon/early evening. This area is the
most likely to see any thunderstorm activity as well, although
some thunder can`t quite be ruled out farther east into the
Adirondacks and perhaps northern portions of Vermont given
Otherwise, the rest of the day is shaping up to be merely
showery and breezy, with rain-cooled air and thick clouds making
for the coolest day we have seen since June.

As the system`s cold front presses eastward through our region
between about 9 PM and 1 AM, winds will shift westerly and trend
northwesterly, ushering in a return to dry air. Relatedly, most
of the wildfire smoke that has pushed northward into northern
New York and Vermont, especially higher elevations, this
afternoon will be steered out of the region. Unfortunately, a
different plume of smoke from the northwest will likely push
into northern New York overnight, which could once again degrade
air quality. At this time, the concentrations look less
significant than what we are seeing currently For now, Air
Quality Alerts remain in effect today; the New York State
Department of Environmental Conservation at
https://on.ny.gov/nyaqi and Vermont Agency of Natural Resources
web site at https://dec.vermont.gov/air- quality/local-air-
quality-forecasts will have more information. Aside from any
lingering smoke concerns, another extended stretch of high
pressure and pleasant temperatures are anticipated Sunday
through Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Overall, deterministic solutions and their
accompanying ensemble blends support a persistence forecast into
the middle and latter portions of next week so I`ll continue
with this idea. The main weather feature of note will be the
approach/passage of a frontal system later Tue/Wed. At this
time, the best forcing looks to arrive in the overnight hours
thus limiting the threat of severe weather. However, PWAT values
do climb AOA 1.5 inches, so locally heavy downpours will be
possible with any deeper convective cores. Behind the front,
surface high pressure and a much drier airmass arrive for late
week (Thu/Fri) with fair/dry wx returning. Model- averaged 925
hPa thermal profiles through the period support pleasantly
seasonable mid-summer temperatures with daily highs in the mid
70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Cold front still working it`s way across
the region and some showers are present at RUT at time of TAF
issuance. All showers should exit our area in the next hour or
so. Have seen some MVFR ceilings in and behind these showers.
Will see occasional MVFR conditions, from wildfire smoke
producing 3-5SM vsby. Surface winds shift NW overnight at
10-15kt with some gusts 20-25kt, likely highest at BTV. Shallow
frontal inversion may lead to some trapped smoke 09-13Z before
better daytime mixing on Sunday allows any associated vsby
restrictions to end. Can`t rule out some ceilings 1-2kft around
sunrise, especially at KSLK. Drying north winds will allow these
low clouds to dissipate by 12-13Z with VFR for the balance of
the TAF period on Sunday.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Seasonably strong south-southeast winds have been mixing on Lake
Champlain during the day today, resulting in observed winds at
Colchester Reef as high as 27 knots sustained early this
afternoon and likely large waves on both the broad lake and
northern waters in the 2 to 4 foot range. Peak winds will
persist in a 20-30 knot range on the broad lake through early
evening before diminishing and then picking up tonight out of
the northwest behind a cold front. These winds overnight will
also potentially reach 25 knots and produce rough waves with a
strong westerly component and deeper mixing will help produce
gusty conditions. Gradually winds and waves will subside during
the Sunday morning timeframe.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...JMG/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...