268
FXUS61 KBTV 150615
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
215 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 214 AM EDT Monday...
No significant changes have been made at this time. Rainfall is on
track to end during the pre-dawn hours with quieter weather expected
through Tuesday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 214 AM EDT Monday...
1. Flood watch remains in effect through 8 AM this morning.
2. Cooler and drier weather to start the week followed by
unsettled weather Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 214 AM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: We continue to see widespread rainfall across Vermont
this morning with the main focus on heavier rainfall being across
Rutland Windsor Counties. There is one flash flood warning in effect
for Rutland County where over 2.5 inches of rain was observed within
2 hours. There was one strong thunderstorm that dropped 2 inches in
one hour followed by some steadier moderate rainfall. It`s still
raining in the area where the warning is in effect and we could
still see another half into to an inch of rainfall. This one storm
was an outlier and likely interacted with a pocket of instability
that had yet to be tapped into. Rainfall right now is largely
stratiform with limited convective components which will limit the
flash flood threat given rainfall rates between 0.5" and 0.75" per
hour. We will likely cancel the watch ahead of the 8 AM expiration
time as rainfall will likely have moved east by that point.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Following the passage of the cold front this morning, we
will be under the influence of an upper level trough once again. A
return to more seasonal temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s is forecast through the upcoming weekend with lows in the
50s and 60s. Broad cyclonic flow could yield some isolated to
scattered diurnal shower chances today and Tuesday but nothing
significant of note. On Wednesday, an upper level trough with a weak
reflection in the MSLP fields will yield widespread showers across
New York but lower chances across Vermont with greater instability
present across northern New York.
Widespread rainfall is expected on Thursday from a quick hitting
lower pressure system that will race through the St. Lawrence Valley.
This has all the makings of a winter-like Colorado low racing
through the central US into Canada. An impressive plume of 1.75"
PWAT values will advect into the North Country and northern New York
and produce some periods of moderate to heavy rainfall on Thursday.
Luckily, a strong jet streak within the synoptic trough will force
this system to push through the region quickly which will likely
preclude any hydrological issues. The potential for strong to severe
storms also seems quite low as rainfall is expected to move in close
to sunrise.
Unsettled weather will continue Friday and into the weekend as the
upper level trough builds southward as several shortwaves help
amplify the trough amplitude. Several rounds of showers, especially
during the afternoon hours, are possible Friday, Saturday, and
Sunday with steep low level lapse rates due to a pocket of colder
air aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Mainly MVFR flight conditions are expected
through the next couple of hours due to a combination of moderate
rain across Vermont and low ceilings ahead of a cold front.
Intervals of VFR conditions have been occurring even within the
rain, with ceilings and visibilities bouncing at all terminals.
Improvement to VFR is largely occurring from west to east as drier
air filters in. The only site expected to see IFR conditions through
the period is SLK, although confidence in prevailing IFR is only
moderate given recent observations. Still, think low ceilings with
at least temporary IFR conditions at times through 12Z at SLK can be
expected with moist conditions and subsidence bringing cloud bases
back down until the clouds are gradually mixed out during the
morning after sunrise. Winds will trend breezy out of the west after
12Z, with some gusts 15 to 20 knots likely.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002>010-016>018.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Clay
AVIATION...Kutikoff
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