790
FXUS61 KBTV 012346
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
746 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 232 PM EDT Wednesday...
Confidence has increased in some localized, light mixed
precipitation Thursday into Friday. Guidance has also increased
wind gusts, potentially as high as 35-40 knots Thursday night
and Friday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 232 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Light wintry precipitation and light icing are likely in the
Adirondacks, the Greens, and east of the Greens Thursday into
Friday. Slick travel conditions are possible, particularly during
Thursday morning and evening commutes.
2. Active weather continues over the weekend as a series of
fronts bring rain and gusty winds. While the weather will be
active, no significant impacts are expected at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 232 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Shortwave troughing will track across the southern half
of our forecast area tonight, bringing precipitation to southern and
central Vermont early Thursday morning as winds aloft turn more
southerly. As surface temperatures fall into the upper 20s to mid
30s, southern spots that get precipitation could see some very light
wintry precipitation and light icing during the morning commute.
During the day Thursday, a surface low pressure system will traverse
from the Plains to the Great Lakes, allowing for some warm air
advection and more widespread precipitation across northern New York
and Vermont. Depending on how much surface cold air gets trapped
east of the Greens and in cold pockets of the Adirondacks, icing may
continue through Thursday night for some. Where temperatures warm
into the upper 30s to lower 40s Thursday afternoon, rain will be the
primary precipitation type. Then, Thursday night, temperatures are
forecast to fall back into the 30s for most. Isolated ice
accumulation may be as much as a quarter of an inch for higher
elevations of the mountains. General precipitation amounts of around
0.10-0.50 inches are anticipated, so impacts to rivers should be
minimal to none, however, winds will also increase Thursday night
out of the south and continue into Friday, likely gusting as high as
35-40 knots for some. Widespread temperatures in the upper 50s and
60s on Friday will finally end the threat of wintry precip, though
chances of rain showers will linger as a couple frontal boundaries
cross the region. With all the warmth, moisture, and frontal forcing
being projected for Friday, there could even be some rumbles of
thunder out there.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A closed upper low barreling through the central
US will drive the development of a deepening surface low
Saturday. This low will become the focus for our next period of
active weather. The low pressure system will lift through the
Great Lakes Region into southeastern Canada Saturday night into
Sunday, sending a series of fronts through the northeastern US.
The passage of the warm front will occur sometime late Saturday
into Saturday night. Some showers are possible as the warm front
moves through. Developing southerly flow and warm air advection
will allow Saturday`s temperatures to climb to the mid 50s to
mid 60s, so any initial showers that move through will be in the
form of rain.
Within the warm sector of the system, a 50 to 60 knot southerly low
level jet will develop. Forecast soundings showing a stout low-level
inversion from the warm air advection, so the majority of this
momentum will stay aloft. However, some areas will become windy
overnight, especially where southerly channeled flow is
favored. NBM wind probabilities are highlighting the northern
Champlain Valley and higher elevations of the northern Greens
and northern slopes of the Adirondacks as areas that will see
the strongest overnight gusts (about 70% probability of seeing
wind gusts in excess of 30 mph).
The timing of the passage of the cold front with the system will
dictate whether or not we see any flooding threat towards the end of
the weekend. Warm temperatures preceding the cold front will
promote additional snowmelt in the few areas that still have
snow. According to latest NOHRSC analysis, this is just the
highest elevations of the northern Adirondacks, northern Greens,
and the Northeast Kingdom. In addition to marginal snowmelt
amounts feeding into waterways, any locally moderate or heavier
rainfall would result in additional river rises. At this point,
QPF amounts do not look concerning (NBM Mean 24 hour QPF in the
quarter to half inch range). This is due to the progressive
nature of the system/ relatively quick frontal passage. However,
will have to watch thunderstorm potential, which could result
in some locally briefly moderate intensity rainfall. It`s worth
noting the PW values will climb to over an inch (around 300% of
normal for this time of year), however at this point instability
looks minimal. The timing of the fronts and potential
clearing/window for destabilization doesn`t look to line up
favorably for thunderstorms based on the deterministic ECMWF and
GFS at this point. Overall taking all factors together, we are
watching several aspects of this system, but at this point we
are not seeing anything overly concerning from a hydro
perspective. This is supported by NAEFS and GEFS based
simulations for river level probabilities, which show rises on
Sunday/Monday but show the most likely scenario is that all
rivers stay below flood stage.
Once the cold front sweeps through, expect a quick transition to
cooler conditions to start the next work week. Highs next week are
forecast in the 40s, which is 5-10 degrees below normal for early
April highs.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...MVFR conditions currently prevail at most
terminals this evening, with KMSS/KPBG/KRUT VFR. We expect the
remainder of the TAF sites to improve to VFR over the next few
hours, with all terminals then remaining VFR overnight.
terminals this afternoon, with gradual improvement towards VFR
ceilings expected into this evening. Some light flurries or
sprinkles will be possible at KMPV for the first couple of hours
as well, but little/no impacts are anticipated. After 12Z
Thu, increased moisture across the region will likely lead to
another period of MVFR ceilings through the daylight hours,
along with increased chances for precipitation late in the day,
generally after 20z. Light N/NW winds will become light and
variable overnight, then increase again Thu out of the S/SE. The
exception will be KMSS which will hold onto a NE wind through
the period.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Likely SHRA, Likely FZRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt.
Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Storm/Duell
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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