699
FXUS61 KBTV 181031
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
631 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 627 AM EDT Monday...

A quick update to the forecast was made to better reflect the
current showers and thunderstorms moving across the area this
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

1.  Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue for the first
half of the week, with high temperatures climbing into the upper 70s
and 80s. Meanwhile, lake and river water temperatures remain
dangerously cold across the region, and breezes on Lake Champlain
may result in rough lake conditions.

2. Above normal temperatures are expected for the first half of
the week ahead.

3. Cooler and drier conditions are favored Thursday through
Friday before a transition back to seasonable temperatures and a
wetter pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1:  Building high pressure across the region will allow for
unseasonable warmth to continue for the first portion of the week. A
warm front lifting across the region this morning may bring a few
chances of showers this morning, but as the day progresses drier
conditions are expected to prevail. High temperatures this afternoon
are expected to climb into the upper 70s and 80s areawide. Despite
the extremely warm air temperatures, water temperatures are still
quite frigid, so any recreators should be sure to take the proper
precautions, including wearing a life jacket. In addition to the
warm temperatures, southerly winds will continue to be a bit breezy
throughout the day, especially in the Champlain Valley and along
the lake due to channeled flow. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect,
with additional details in the Marine section below

Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, with high
temperatures climbing into the 80s and near 90 under southwesterly
flow. These temperatures will be the warmest of the year so far,
especially after a cool start to the month, so it is important to
remember to stay safe in warmer temperatures by staying hydrated and
take frequent breaks if working outside. Dewpoints will also be
trending upwards going into Tuesday, making it feel quite humid
especially for this time of year. The warmth and humidity will
result in increasing instability, which will support the development
of showers and possible thunderstorms for Tuesday, which could
impact how warm temperatures climb during the day Tuesday. A cold
front is expected to cross the region on Wednesday, which will
impact how warm we can get that day. At the moment, highs in the
upper 60s to mid 80s look likely, with central and southern Vermont
getting the warmest before the cold front and associated
precipitation arrive. In addition to warmth during the days, our
lows likely won`t fall below the upper 50s and 60s until the cold
front arrives, providing only some relief from heat overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2:  The warm and humidity environment ahead of an
approaching cold front will allow for increased chances of
thunderstorm develop Tuesday and Wednesday. Latest CAM guidance
shows plenty of instability across the region, with surface CAPE
values anywhere from 500 to 1500 J/kg, with temperatures in the 80s
to near 90 and dewpoints in the 60s. Forcing will be mainly from an
upper level weak wave and its potential interactions with
topography, while surface forcing looks minimal Tuesday afternoon
into the overnight period, and mid level lapse rates don`t look
overly impressive. The primary hazard with any strong to severe
storms that do develop look to be damaging winds. SPC has placed
much of the region a Slight Risk for severe weather, so be sure to
monitor the forecast especially if you have any outdoor plans.

The main cold front looks to drop across the region on Wednesday,
bringing higher chances of precipitation with it. As we get closer
to the event, the timing of the cold front or fronts should become
more set. Should the front be delayed, the potential for stronger
storms would increase during the day on Wednesday with more time to
destabilize.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Temperatures trend much cooler Thursday behind
Wednesday`s front with northwest flow resulting in cold air
advection and a return to highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees.
Winds slow overnight with skies clearing; this may be a period of
concern for some frost outside the Champlain Valley with lows in the
mid/upper 30s for many locations, and low 40s for the Champlain
Valley. Conditions are favored to remain dry into Friday with
temperatures rising back to seasonal averages in the mid/upper 60s
to around 70 degrees.

Models begin to split on precipitation timing heading into the
weekend. Consensus maintains some chances of showers increasing
Saturday with more widespread rain Sunday. However, a number of
models are beginning to hold onto the ridge longer delaying
precipitation onset until the late weekend. Either way, a pattern
shift to deep return flow from the Gulf Coast northeastward into the
Northeast is appearing probable. This flow pattern would result in
multiple days of rain potential once it sets up.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will likely persist despite some
shower chances 10- 16Z. Highest chances of brief MVFR CIGs will be at
SLK and EFK as showers roll through with lower chances for PBG/BTV.
A lljet will sweep through in the same time frame promoting some
LLWS for MSS/SLK/PBG/EFK. Surface winds at PBG could gust 20-30kts
at times with favorable off-lake, channeled flow while most other
terminals see gusts around 20kts. Gusts drop by 00Z with clouds
thickening late in the period as a diffluent flow pattern moves over
the region with some increasing elevated instability. Showers will
be possible starting just outside the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake
Champlain. Channel southerly flow will result in winds increasing to
15 to 25 knots this afternoon, with even higher gusts possible.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer
AVIATION...Boyd
MARINE...Kremer