740
FXUS61 KBTV 152343
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
743 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday...
Patchy dense fog has been added to the forecast in favored valley
locations for midnight tonight thru approximately 8am Tuesday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday...
1. Patchy dense fog tonight into early Tuesday morning.
2. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms possible
Wednesday.
3. After a stronger system on Thursday, cool and showery
conditions will prevail late this week and over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Generally quiet weather conditions anticipated over the
next 36 hours (thru Wednesday morning). A narrow zone of surface
high pressure cresting over the North Country overnight will bring
light and variable wind conditions after midnight. Ongoing areas of
stratocu in low-level CAA (and trapped beneath a sharp inversion
layer) will persist into this evening, but are also expected to
dissipate toward midnight. Given widespread rainfall that
occurred on Sunday/Sunday night, conditions are favorable for
patchy dense fog, especially in the favored river valleys. Fog
should persist through 12-13Z Tuesday before dissipating.
Overnight lows are generally expected in the mid 40s to lower
50s, except locally in the upper 30s across the northern
Adirondacks.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A modest shortwave trough is expected to shift
northeastward into nrn NY and VT mid-late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening. Should see partly sunny conditions for the
balance of the day, but with an increasing chance for scattered
showers during the afternoon and evening hours. Weak surface-based
CAPE up to 750 J/kg may allow for a few embedded thunderstorms,
though severe storms are not expected. Afternoon high temperatures
may be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday, generally reaching the mid-
upper 70s, and a few lower 80s in the Champlain and Upper
Connecticut River Valley. South winds increasing to around 10 mph in
the afternoon will allow dewpoints to climb into the mid-upper 50s
late in the day.
KEY MESSAGE 3: An impressive mid-June system will track along and north
of the St. Lawrence Valley on Thursday. Buoyed by mid-level
instability and a 120 knot jet streak to our southwest, this warm
front will have excellent lift. 850mb winds of 50-55 knots will
produce strong moisture advection through the region. A solid shield
of rain will race northeast through our forecast area in 4-6 hours
on Thursday morning. Thereafter, the intense sub 990mb surface low
will pass along Montreal during the afternoon with the occlusion
shifting east about noon-8pm. Convergence along the front will be
good, and there will about some instability and below normal
temperatures aloft. We will likely see convection, but equilibrium
levels will be around -12 C, which suggests short and stout activity
that may struggle to produce thunder with general lack of cloud ice.
Still, we`ll keep an eye, as there will be plenty of wind in the low-
levels, but the strong shear may inhibit lift, in addition to dry
air in the warm section. Some guidance has activity redeveloping,
while others keep things limited, and so time will tell. Given the
strong, but fast, nature of the front, and then some convection,
there should be roughly 0.33-0.67" of precipitation with localized
amounts around 1-1.25".
Precipitation will begin to gradually clear the area on Thursday
night as a large upper low spirals to our north. It won`t really
budge for several days. So intervals of scattered rain showers will
shift southeastwards across the region for the latter part of the
week. If any day were to have thunder, it might be Friday with
somewhat higher instability, cool temperatures aloft, and a weak
surface trough passing through together. By next Sunday into next
Monday, the upper low will begin to open into a trough and slide
eastwards. As is typical for seven days out, models begin to sharply
diverge, but things are leaning on the cool, showery side.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Mostly VFR conditions prevail across the
region this evening with cloud cover expected to gradually
become more scattered overnight. Recent rainfall and light
winds will likely allow for some fog development overnight, most
likely at KSLK and KMPV, although there may be enough wind above
the surface to limit the overall extent of fog development. Any
fog development will likely lead to IFR and LIFR conditions,
most likely between 08Z and 12Z. Winds continue to be west or
northwesterly this evening, but will continue to trend light and
terrain driven overnight. Winds look to pick up out of the
southwest towards 15Z or so, with southeasterly winds expected
at KPBG.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banacos
DISCUSSION...Banacos/Haynes
AVIATION...Kremer
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