581
FXUS61 KBTV 031855
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
155 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 914 AM EST Tuesday...No Significant Changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 152 PM EST Tuesday...
1. Occasional snow showers prevail through Wednesday morning,
which could produce locally hazardous travel conditions during the
Weds morning commute, including for portions of the Champlain
Valley.
2. Hazardous travel is possible late Friday and Friday night
due to overspreading snow showers.
3. Dangerously cold conditions are likely this weekend from
Friday night through early next week, with wind chills of -20F to -
50F likely. Risk of hypothermia and frostbite will be unusually high
due to the extreme nature of the cold, especially for vulnerable
populations and anyone venturing outdoors without proper cold
weather gear.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 152 PM EST Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Occasional snow showers prevail through Thursday
morning, which could produce locally hazardous travel conditions
during the Weds morning commute, including for portions of the
Champlain Valley.
GOES-19 mid level water vapor imagery shows compact and closed
cyclonic circulation just north of Lake Huron this aftn with some
disorganized snow showers over the central/eastern Great Lakes into
northern NY. This potent northern stream s/w energy has limited deep
layer moisture to work with as pw values are in the 0.10" to 0.20"
range, but dynamics/forcing is good. This compact center is progged
to move along the International Border overnight and exit the NEK of
VT by 15z Weds. Have placed 40-60% pops acrs northern NY into
northern VT, with highest values in the mtns into the northern CPV.
Its interesting to note that both the NAM 3KM and HRRR 12z shows an
enhance pocket of higher composite reflectivity over the northern
CPV around 12z Weds, associated with northerly convergence and
Froude # of <0.50. This could produce locally hazardous travel acrs
the CPV, including the BTV area on Weds morning. Its not about the
amount of snow, but the poor timing of snow. Snow squall parameter
is low with values <1.0, as instability is weak with sfc based CAPE
values <50 J/kg, so expecting just snow showers. Accumulations will
range from a dusting to an inch or two by midday Weds.
Additional snow showers are likely again on Weds night into Thurs
with more s/w energy and passage of another weak sfc trof. Once
again the highest pops/qpf and snowfall wl be acrs the northern
Dacks into the northern/central Green Mountains. Temps are generally
at or below normal thru the period with the coldest values possible
on Friday morning, where lows could be below zero (0 to -15F) in
many locations. Lows generally 5 to 15F tonight and Weds night and
highs 15 to 25F, but if more clearing and light winds develop,
localized areas below zero are possible.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Widespread snow showers are expected Friday afternoon
into Saturday morning as a clipper low pressure system slides across
the area. Snow showers will become more likely in the evening and
overnight as 850mb frontogenesis moves into northern New York. This
area of frontogenesis is associated with a strong Arctic cold front
which will bring some low-level convergence and forcing. However,
given the overnight timing beyond typical diurnal heating,
instability will be limited. Thus, while the probability of snow
squalls remains, we currently do not expected widespread of heavy
snow as the front crosses the region. Regardless, snow-liquid ratios
will be high given how cold it will be, resulting in fairly light
and fluffy snow. There is still some uncertainty with snow amounts
given the timing and scattered expected nature, however, there is a
30-40% chance of 3" or more inches of snow across Vermont, with
slightly higher probabilities of 40-60% across northern New York.
Given this, amounts between 1-3" are favored with locally higher
across the western slopes of the Greens and Adirondacks. Dewpoints
will fall rapidly behind the front, drying out the air column of the
system, so expected snow to come to a quick end early Saturday,
lingering the longest in the northern Greens.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Very Dangerous cold conditions will follow an Arctic
cold front Friday night, with wind chills of -20F to -40F areawide.
This cold air mass will be even colder than the extreme cold we
experienced before our last winter storm as the wind direction will
be northerly instead of a surface south wind. The risk of
hypothermia and frostbite will be unusually high to within 10
minutes. This is especially true for vulnerable populations and
anyone venturing outdoors without proper cold weather gear. Extreme
Cold Warnings are likely for this weekend for majority, it not all
of the area.
Temperatures will fall sharply Friday night from near 20 to the
single digits above and below zero by sunrise. Parts of the
Adirondacks could even fall into the low negative teens. Strong caa
from the north/northwest will keep funneling arctic cold air from
northern Canada into the region through the entire weekend and
likely into early next week. Given the deeper snowpack as compared
to the last cold, with most region lakes well iced over, confidence
is high in this being the coldest stretch of the season. An
additional danger will be how prolonged this stretch of cold will be
with below zero air temperatures beginning Friday night, and for
most areas outside the immediate area around Lake Champlain, not
rising above 0 until at least Monday morning. Furthermore, with Lake
Champlain near closure due to ice coverage, temperatures may even be
overdone for places like Burlington and Plattsburgh as cold air from
the lake ice creates a sink for colder air. Probabilities of BTV
staying under 0F through the weekend are 30-40%, with most of New
York and the Northeast Kingdom near 80-90%. Mountain sites will
likely be even colder with 850mb temperatures with this air mass
nearing record levels. The nearest observed 850mb record
temperature, observed at KALB is -24C, and we will certainly be
nearing that this weekend with model progs between -28C to -30C.
The coldest wind chills will be overnight, particularly Saturday and
Sunday Night as gusts could reach up to 20 to 30 kts Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night. Considerable caa aloft will help
steepen lapse rates, and increase mixing keeping winds gusty through
the weekend. These gusts will significantly reduce wind chills,
particularly across the higher terrain. Very little relief looks
apparent in the long term, with temperatures only gradually
returning to the teens and low 20s by Tuesday. Needless to say,
these conditions will be very dangerous for anyone outdoors,
especially if they are not dressed for the conditions. Anyone with
outdoor plans next weekend should keep a close eye on future
forecasts and remain alert for any future cold
watches/warnings/advisories.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions at most sites will
prevail for the next 12 hours, before a weak clipper system
brings light and brief snow showers overnight into tomorrow
morning. High clouds are beginning to overspread the region with
lower clouds with intermittent MVFR at MSS/SLK in association
with some light snow showers. There have been observed 3-5SM
-SHSN with these showers, which should lift north and weaken by
21-22Z. A brief period of VFR will follow with a return to MVFR
beyond 00Z for most sites. Snow showers will be isolated to
scattered in nature with only a 30-50% chance of -SHSN at any
site through 10Z. By daybreak, hi-res guidance suggests a
boundary will slide through northern Vermont with perhaps
MVFR/IFR vsbys near 12Z for PBG/BTV/EFK. With Froude numbers
under 0.5, any snow showers will likely be blocked into BTV
tomorrow morning. Snow showers exit by late tomorrow morning
with clearing skies outside of SLK/MSS/EFK through the end of
the TAF period. Winds will become south this afternoon, and turn
to the west by 12Z and will generally be light under 10 kts.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible.
Likely SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Taber/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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