473
FXUS61 KBTV 031354
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
854 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A few snow showers will continue mainly for upslope areas over the
next few days with a weak system moving through this weekend
bringing some light snow accumulations. An especially cold
tonight is expected Sunday night with wind chill values
potentially as low as -10 to -20 F. Unseasonably cool
temperatures are expected to trend back towards seasonal
averages by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 848 AM EST Saturday...Another adjustment was made to
precipitation chances for northwestern Vermont where snow
showers have been more pervasive. Scattered snow showers were
continued into the early afternoon hours. Radar has remained
unchanged with returns not diminishing, so tried to match timing
of shower decreases with model changes to Froude number. Flow
is expected to remain subcritical through about 12-3pm when a
trough will finally pass allowing for supercritical flow over
terrain while drier air works into northern Vermont shutting off
showers.

Previous discussion...Today will feature cyclonic flow and a
subtle trough, which could result in some isolated light snow
showers and scattered flurries this morning, 10-40% chance,
mainly across the mountains, resulting in perhaps a dusting at
most. Temperatures remain well below normal for early January
with highs only in the teens to mid 20s. Breezy conditions this
morning on mountaintops will see winds gradually decrease into
tonight.

A more pronounced trough is expected to move through tonight leading
to some scattered light snow showers and flurries, but moisture will
be limited, resulting in snowfall accumulations generally less than
1/2 inch and relegated to higher terrain and St. Lawrence County
where some Lake Ontario moisture becomes entrained into flow.
Overall a low impact period with lows similar to last night`s in the
single digits to lower teens. Isolated light snow showers and
flurries are forecast to linger in the mountains tomorrow under
northwesterly flow as high temperatures continue to only reach the
teens to mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 123 AM EST Saturday...Dry air will arrive later Sunday as high
pressure builds overhead, resulting in another strong radiational
cooling event Sunday night that will drop low temperatures sharply
for the region. Portions of the Adirondacks, Green Mountains, and
northern New York could see some wind chill values -20 or lower
while other locations could range -10 to -15. It will depend on
whether or not we maintain some winds; even a light drainage wind of
5 mph or so would be problematic with ambient temperatures below
-10F.

One last well below normal temperature day for awhile is still on
track for Monday, though milder air will begin to arrive across the
St. Lawrence Valley, aloft, and later in the day. Increasing clouds
ahead of an approaching system are anticipated to cap temperatures
in the teens during the day. Snow showers are likely to begin
arriving in parts of St. Lawrence County by the afternoon or evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 144 AM EST Saturday...A more active period of wx
anticipated for the long term with several systems expected to
impact our fa. First weak embedded s/w energy in the fast flow
aloft with pocket of enhanced mid lvl moisture moves acrs our
cwa late Monday into Monday night, with period of light snow.
This concept is supported by the latest 00z CMC/GFS and NAM
guidance, while ECMWF is holding onto 1022mb high pres and would
keep best potential for light snow to our south. For now have
continued with chc pops for Monday night with temps single
digits to lower teens, but could see colder solution if ECMWF
is correct and much warmer if more clouds/light precip is
falling per GFS/CMC and NAM solutions.

Next stronger system with deep moisture profiles and better
dynamics arrives late Tues night into Weds. Progged 1004mb low
pres is expected to track from western NY acrs central New
England as flow aloft remains progressive (west-east). This
general idea wl support a widespread accumulating snowfall
associated with initial waa lift/moisture, followed by
additional synoptic scale lift associated with 700-500mb vort
center moving directly overhead. An advisory level event is
possible, given the dynamics and available moisture. In
addition, initially thermal profiles are cold enough for all
snow, but warm layer develops on southwest flow with progged
925mb to 850mb layer warming btwn 1C-3C, especially CPV and
parts of northern NY, while east of the Greens stays slightly
cooler. The idea of snow to mix to possible light rain scenario
is likely, especially deeper/wider valleys, like CPV and western
SLV. Also, given developing southwest flow of 35 to 45 knots at
850mb, some downslope shadowing is likely. Did trend winds
toward the NBM 90th percentile to capture potential for stronger
gusts CPV and higher trrn late Tues night into Weds, with temps
warming into the 30s.

By late week next full latitude mid/upper lvl trof is
developing over the Central Plains, as ridging builds acrs the
eastern CONUS. This supports a period of above normal temps with
increasing south/southwest flow, deeper moisture advection from
the Gulf and sub-tropical jet cutting acrs northern Mexico. As
sfc low pres develops on lee-side of the Rockies by Friday
deeper moisture and much warmer air wl be advecting northward
toward the NE CONUS late week into next weekend. Still a large
spread in mid/upper lvl trof evolution and exact track of sfc
low pres for late week into next weekend attm. For now have keep
close to the NBM for temps/pops, which supports increasing
potential for a mostly rain event by late week with temps
warming at least into the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Taf challenge continues to be vis
associated with light snow shower activity as current conditions
vary from IFR at PBG/SLK to MVFR at MSS and VFR at the rest of
our sites. Weak convergence, combined with slightly better
lift/moisture from s/w energy approaching the St Lawrence Valley
will produce a period of light snow with vis between 2-4SM at
MSS to SLK to PBG to BTV. Have used a tempo group to cover this
potential for brief 1 to 2 hour window of IFR vis in light snow,
while showing a prevailing group of mvfr vis. This activity
will impact rut/mpv with generally mvfr vis. Additional snow
shower activity will produce mvfr vis with brief periods of ifr
conditions this aftn, with highest probability of ifr at slk.
Winds are generally light from the north/northwest at 4 to 8
knots, except northeast at PBG.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV