755
FXUS61 KBTV 251821
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
221 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 221 PM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes were made.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 221 PM EDT Saturday...
1. Dry weather continues through the beginning of next week.
2. Cool and unsettled weather is expected for the latter half
of next week, with daily shower chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 221 PM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure extending all the way from Nunavut,
Canada, into New England, will dominate the weather for the rest of
the weekend and the start of the next work week as omega blocking
sets up and ridging builds early next week. The result will be no
precipitation, light winds, sunny skies, low humidity, and
increasing temperatures. Highs each day will be in the 60s each day,
reaching into the lower 70s for the wider valleys on Tuesday with
plenty of sunshine. Low temperatures look to fall into the upper 20s
to mid 40s each night under optimal radiational cooling conditions,
also increasing as we head towards the midweek. Relative humidity
values should drop into the 25-40% range each afternoon and will be
accompanied by largely winds 10 mph or less. One exception will be
Tuesday, when overall winds do look to increase slightly out of the
south and southeast across northern New York and Vermont. After a
period of no precipitation, this means that Tuesday is our main
focus for fire weather concerns. The combination of low relative
humidities, increasing winds, increasing temperatures, and lack of
recent precipitation indicate we`ll likely need fire weather
coordination with partners (to get a sense of how dry fuels are) and
initiate more fire weather messaging. If any fires were to start on
Tuesday, the weather conditions could cause fires to quickly get out
of control and be difficult to contain.
KEY MESSAGE 2: After the dry start to the week, a cool and unsettled
weather pattern is expected across the region towards mid-week as an
upper level low lingers over the Northeast. Temperatures will be
fairly seasonable mid-week, with high temperatures generally in
upper 50s and low 60s, but a cooling trend is expected heading
towards next weekend, with high temperatures only in the mid 40s and
50s. Daily chances for showers can be expected as several shortwaves
rotate about the upper low, with steep lapse rates aiding in shower
development. With the colder temperatures late in the week, some
mountain snow showers will be possible. Although exact precipitation
amounts are unclear at this time range, the latest NBM shows a 30 to
60 percent chance of receiving 0.5 inches of precipitation over a 3-
day period, so despite daily chances of precipitation amounts will
generally be light.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all
terminals through the forecast period, with dry weather and a few
high clouds streaming into the region. Winds will generally be light
and terrain driven, with many locations trending calm overnight.
Channeled northeasterly flow will lead to stronger winds at KMSS
through the afternoon, with gusts in excess of 20 knots. Otherwise,
winds will generally be less than 10 knots throughout the forecast
period.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Storm
AVIATION...Kremer
|
