131
FXUS61 KBTV 100529
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1229 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread snowfall will move through tomorrow into tomorrow
night, with accumulations generally expected to be in the two to
seven inch range. Plan on slippery road conditions,
particularly during the Wednesday morning and evening commutes,
as well as between 10 AM and 3 PM Wednesday, when heavy snow is
anticipated. The colder and active pattern will continue into
next week with a few additional chances for snow, though no big
snowstorms are expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Tuesday...
**Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for St. Lawrence,
Franklin, and western Essex counties of New York as well as
Rutland, Washington, Orange, Caledonia, Lamoille, Essex,
eastern Addison, and western Windsor counties of Vermont.
**In New York, the Advisory runs from 7 AM Wednesday through 7
AM Thursday, while in Vermont, the Advisory runs from 7 AM
Wednesday through 1 AM Thursday.
**Plan on slippery road conditions, particularly during the
Wednesday morning and evening commutes, as well as between 10
AM and 3 PM Wednesday, when heavy snow is anticipated.
High pressure centered over southern New England will shift off
into the Atlantic Ocean this afternoon and evening as low
pressure approaches northern New York from the Great Lakes. This
will enhance warm air advection across the forecast area and
commence a period of light snow showers. Dry air at the surface
will make it difficult for snow to reach the ground, so any snow
accumulations will generally be only a couple tenths of an inch
throughout the night, though higher elevations in the
Adirondacks and northern Greens could pick up an inch or two.
This warm air advection will also keep lows milder than we saw
last night, though still a few degrees below seasonal normals in
the teens to lower 20s. A southwesterly low level jet with
winds 40-45 knots will accompany the warm air advection,
bringing gusty winds on mountaintops and ridges and efficient
atmospheric mixing will also produce gusts up to 30-35 knots at
the lower elevations, highest in north to south oriented valleys
like the Champlain Valley due to efficient channeling. Any new
snow will likely be light and fluffy and blow around easily,
lowering visibilities.
Tomorrow, a quick-moving clipper type system will cross the
region, its surface low tracking through the St. Lawrence Valley
tomorrow afternoon into the overnight period. Snow will be
steadiest throughout the daytime hours tomorrow with warm air
advection in the morning enhancing snowfall intensity and higher
snow ratios on the front end allowing snow to pile up quickly.
Snowfall rates in the morning could briefly reach around an inch
per hour, then turn lighter in the afternoon. Downsloping and
shadowing will overall limit snowfall in the Champlain and
Connecticut River valleys. We`ll also continue to see southerly
to even southeasterly gusts tomorrow up to 25-30 knots, again
strongest in north to south oriented valleys.
Warm air advection and southerly flow will help make tomorrow
the mildest day of the week with highs in the upper 20s to mid
30s, near seasonable for this time of year. In locations like
the wider valleys where we`ll have temperatures rising slightly
above freezing in the late afternoon, we could see some rain
mixing in briefly, but generally steep lapse rates will keep
snow the dominant precipitation type for this entire event. As
the center of the low passes to the east, northwest flow
develops and it should cause a brief period of upslope snow
Wednesday night with lows in the single digits to lower 20s.
Overall, totals in the three to seven inch range are generally
expected in areas we`ve issued a Winter Weather Advisory and up
to three or four inches possible elsewhere. The lake effect band
should stay to the south of our northern New York zones, though
the moisture will still enhance totals in the central and
southern Greens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Tuesday...Upslope snow showers are expected
Thursday and Thursday night as temperatures dive back down in
cold air advection following the system discussed in the near
term discussion. Gusty winds will continue out of the west and
southwest during this period as well. Highest snow accumulations
will be focused across the northwestern Adirondacks and the
northern Greens with up to 3 to 6 inches possible. In the
southern wider valleys and eastern slopes, we`ll see minimal to
no snow with even some clearing possible late Thursday night.
Temperatures Thursday will be in the teens and 20s during the
day, falling to the single digits and teens Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 159 PM EST Tuesday...Below normal temperatures will
continue throughout this period, as a persistent ridge along the
west coast helps maintain a clipper-type of storm track along
with surges of Arctic air. Greatest chances for extreme cold
continue to be in the late Sunday to Monday timeframe, with the
coldest guidance from both machine learning and traditional
computer models showing a lobe of 850 millibar temperatures in
the -22 to -25 C range dropping southeastward into the area
early Monday. As a result of the cold and northwesterly winds,
when current minimum wind chills are forecast mostly in the -5
to -15 F range but could trend lower. Progged 850 millibar
temperatures will remain mainly below the 20th percentile
relative to climatology, with slight moderation on Saturday
before dropping below the 10th percentile, and perhaps 5th
percentile on Monday.
Have noted there is more spread early next week, with some
global ensembles favoring extreme cold and others actually
moderating temperatures slightly during the same timeframe.
These differences seem to be tied to how a lobe of the polar
vortex, which will track southeastward towards us, interacts
with any coastal low pressure storm that develops over the
weekend. Only in situations with a deeper low that curls
northward rather than pushing eastward do we see the most
intense cold.
Noticed as winds slacken Friday evening with weak ridging
sliding across the area ahead of the next clipper system, we
might be dealing with a frigid night with good radiational
cooling, especially east of the Green Mountains. Would expect
forecasts to trend sub-zero for overnight low temperatures.
With regards to snow chances, the aforementioned coastal low
pressure system would be our opportunity for a more impactful
snowfall, but chances this develops in a way to bring our region
heavy snow is low (under 20%). The primary low pressure area
will probably pass to our northwest on Saturday and weaken as
the secondary low develops to our southeast, with a lot of
westerly flow limiting PoPs in eastern Vermont while snow
showers will be common in much of the remainder of the region.
Until the long wave trough axis pushes to our east, chances for
upslope snow showers and potentially more organized light snow
will continue into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Very active with changeable conditions
expected at all taf sites over the next 12 to 24 hours. Crntly a
mix of VFR and MVFR with some IFR vis in the heavier snow
showers associated with warm front. This activity will move away
from our taf sites by 09z. Additional widespread snow will
develop between 12z-15z this morning with vis quickly becoming
IFR at most sites by 15z with periods of LIFR vis likely between
15z and 21z today in moderate snow with MVFR cigs. As southwest
winds develop expect improving vis/cigs at PBG/BTV associated
with downslope shadowing, while rest of our sites continue with
IFR/LIFR conditions thru 00z. The steadier snow will taper off
from west to east on Weds evening, with lingering IFR cigs/vis
likely at MPV/SLK/MSS and EFK, while a mix of IFR/MVFR is
expected at BTV/PBG and RUT. Winds will be gusty at times with
areas of blowing snow likely, especially where gusts over 25
knots occur. A wind shift to the west/northwest is anticipated
toward 00z from west to east acrs our taf sites.
Currently not receiving observations from EFK, so included
amend not sked.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
We have issued a Lake Wind Advisory for the Broad Waters of
Lake Champlain as south winds 15 to 25 knots are anticipated
this afternoon. Waves will be 1 to 3 feet this afternoon,
building 3 to 5 feet this evening. We anticipate the need for an
expansion of the Lake Wind Advisory to all other zones of the
lake this evening with south winds 15 to 30 knots and gusts as
high as 30-40 knots possible.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
Thursday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-011-016>020.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
Thursday for NYZ026-027-029-030-034-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...Storm
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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