000
FXUS61 KBTV 131804
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
204 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Additional rain showers, occasionally mixed with snow at times this
morning across the Adirondacks, will continue throughout the day.
Rainfall totals will be much less than yesterday which should
prevent any additional flooding on area rivers. The weather remains
unsettled through the first half of next week with the possibility
of a more potent system by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 204 PM EDT Saturday...Forecast is playing out really well
with scattered to numerous light showers across the region this
afternoon, mainly in the form of rain below about 1500 feet
elevation and snow above 1500 feet. Webcams confirm intermittent
wet snow in higher terrain today. Continue to show light
accumulations in the mountains and little or none elsewhere with
precipitation rates too low to overcome the warm surface
temperatures. Snow levels will drop only slightly through the
rest of the day as the coolest portion of the trough passing
through enters Vermont through the rest of the daylight hours.
Some slight cold air advection will continue as this trough
remains negatively tilted and westerly low level flow turns more
west- northwesterly. Minor adjustments to hourly temperatures
were made, with many locations, especially in the Adirondacks, a
bit colder than indicated, but overall no significant changes
needed.

Previous Discussion...Shower activity across northern New York
has been quite widespread in response to deeper moisture tied to the
upper level low that is currently located over the Adirondack
Mountains. As the day progresses, we will see the upper low shift to
the north and east which will help spread additional shower activity
into Vermont. Cold air is quickly filtering into northern New York
in the wake of a cold front yesterday which is beginning to allow
for some snow to mix with rain at higher elevations in the
Adirondacks. By daybreak, we could see a few flurries mix in at
lower elevations like Saranac Lake but should change back over to
all rain as temperatures warm well into the 40s and possibly lower
50s. Shower activity may see an uptick by late morning and early
this afternoon as we warm in the low levels as steep low level lapse
rates due to colder air aloft could support some weak instability.
We aren`t expecting any lightning today given lack of forcing but we
could see some brief stints of moderate rainfall at times.
Additional rain totals are expected to generally be a quarter of an
inch or less which shouldn`t create any additional flooding concerns
outside of the ongoing river flooding.

Winds will be gusty throughout the day as the surface low slides
north of the area with a decent pressure gradient residing across
the region. Winds will not be anywhere near as strong as yesterday
but gusts between 20 and 30 mph will likely continue well into the
evening before finally abating after midnight. A brief lull in
precipitation is expected Sunday morning before a weak low pressure
system slides across the region and bring additional rainfall to the
North Country. Rainfall amounts don`t look impressive with this
feature either but with multiple rounds of rainfall over the next 36
hours, area rivers will likely remain high but no additional
flooding is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 322 AM EDT Saturday...The upper shortwave and associated cold
front will cross our region and push eastward Sunday night, bringing
showers to an end by daybreak Monday. Temperatures will cool enough
to allow the higher summits to see some wet snow. Monday and Monday
night will mostly be dry, with a secondary front/surface trough to
move southward through the region. Moisture with this feature looks
limited, but can`t rule out a few light rain showers, mainly along
the international border. Highs on Monday will mainly be in the 50s
with a few spots hitting 60F, while both Sunday and Monday night
will see lows in the low 30s to around 40F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 322 AM EDT Saturday...Much of the long term will be unsettled
with rounds of showers expected, especially later in the week. We`ll
briefly see ridging Tuesday into Wednesday as one upper trough
departs while another swings into the Midwest. Hence that will be
our best chance for dry weather, along with some sunshine. However,
chances of precipitation will increase from Wednesday afternoon
onward as the Midwest trough and associated surface pivot into the
Great Lakes. This will allow shortwaves/frontal boundaries to
pinwheel across the Northeast CONUS, resulting in periods of showers
for late week. Temperatures will be warmest Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s, but increasing cloud cover and
precipitation will keep daytime temperatures a little cooler
Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be coolest Tuesday
night/Wednesday with clearing skies and light winds, but should stay
in the upper 30s/mid 40s late in the week, precluding the chances
for snow beyond the higher summits.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions currently prevail
with ceilings a bit higher than previously expected. Ceilings
generally range from 4000 to 6000 ft, although within scattered
showers they lower to 1500 to 2500 ft. As shower activity
increases, MVFR conditions will be more common as soon as 19-20Z.
Precipitation will be rain and not reduce visibilities
substantially, with the exception of SLK. There, snow showers
will continue intermittently with temporary IFR conditions
trending prevailing from 20Z to 00Z.

Westerly winds will be gusty and trend northwesterly in the 15
to 25 knot range, peaking in the 22Z to 04Z period when some
LLWS will be possible, especially at SLK. Thereafter, winds will
then veer to the southwest ahead of another system. It will
bring rain showers near the end of the TAF period, most likely
in the southern and western portion of the airspace including
MSS/SLK/RUT.



Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The heaviest rainfall has come to an end with rivers still
running on the high side. Additional rainfall today is expected
to be light and shouldn`t create any new flooding concerns going
forward. As of this morning, we have three rivers that we are
monitoring: the Otter Creek at Center Rutland, the East Branch
of the Ausable River at Ausable Forks, and the Ottauquechee
River at West Bridgewater. These three locations are currently
at minor flood stage. Both the East Branch of the Ausable and
Ottauquechee River are falling quickly and are expected to drop
below flood stage this morning. The Otter Creek at Center
Rutland just rose above minor flood stage and will likely remain
at minor flooding through much of the day today.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KSLK is experiencing comms issues. Dataflow may be sporadic.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Clay/Kutikoff
HYDROLOGY...Clay
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV