790
FXUS61 KBTV 311134
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
734 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 225 AM EDT Saturday...
The forecast is in good shape. No major changes needed.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 242 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Dry and cool through Sunday.
2. Increasing warmth early next week with possible light rain
along the international border.
3. Breezes will be likely ahead of the next precipitation
chances expected next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 242 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface high pressure will build into northern New York
and Vermont throughout the day. It will be a chilly day to wrap up
the month of October with temperatures lingering in the 40s for most
locations. Mountain clouds may briefly scatter out, but an upper
vort will quickly dive southeast and produce some additional mid to
high clouds mid-afternoon into the evening hours.
Main concern for today will be continued low humidity across the
region. Eastern slopes of the Adirondacks into south-central Vermont
will likely observe minimum relative humidities from 30-40%. Areas
north will likely see values in the 40-50% range. Modest mixing, but
overall light flow should keep sustained winds around 5-10 mph with
a few gusts around 15-18 mph during the afternoon.
High pressure will be overhead, and so efficient radiational cooling
is expected. Trick-or-treaters can expect a chilly experience, but
at least it will not be the wet and windy weather of last year.
Temperatures will quickly fall into the 30s after sunset, and
overnight lows will reach into the 20s for most. During the pre-dawn
hours, southwesterly flow will become reestablished as high pressure
moves offshore. Moderating conditions will bring temperatures up
into the mid 50s to near 60 by Sunday afternoon. Initially low
dewpoints will begin to rise, and relative humidity will become less
of a concern. Minimum relative humidity values on Sunday will likely
be at or above 40% outside a few localized areas in the Upper Valley.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Scanning through the early part of next week, guidance
continues to trend away from a cold frontal passage Monday night
into Tuesday. This means warm advection is slated to begin a bit
sooner. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s during
the afternoon, with clouds north. A mid to upper level ridge tilted
northwest to southeast should let some moisture crest over its axis
over the eastern Great Lakes region. It`s possible some rain will be
within our side of the international border. Amounts, if any, will
be light. Even without the rain, there will be greater sky cover.
This will limit heating a bit for Tuesday, but it will still likely
climb into the upper 50s to mid 60s during the afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Models continue to depict a full meridional trough to
approach late next week. Consensus is moderately strong that ridging
will slowly slide eastward Tuesday into Wednesday as a large area of
low pressure is favored to develop over the Plains while jet energy
is projected to dip into the the southern states. The result could
be a more mature type front and system passage sometime between
Wednesday night and Friday night. Passage timing remains most
suspect given the dependence on the movement speed of a large, semi-
persistent ridge. However, the pressure gradient will likely be
compounded across the Northeast Wednesday into Thursday supporting
some southerly breezes and promoting gusts 20-30 mph, especially in
channeled areas like the northern Champlain Valley. As for
precipitation, models are split on how exactly the front moves
through with some supporting a split energy scenario pointing a
weaker initial wave with potential for an upper low moving in over
the following weekend. Others remain more consolidated with the wave
pushing a moderately strong front through the region with an upper
low dragging behind. Either way, some rain seems probable towards
the end of next week. Details on "when" and "how much" should become
clearer over the next few days.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to persist
through the forecast period with flow out of the northwest
generally 5 to 10kts. This direction will promote some potential
for increasing clouds 17-03Z as clouds advect in out of Canada.
Could see some weak mountain waves continuing as well which are
presently evident on satellite images. As such, some generally
light turbulence can be expected in the vicinity of ridge level
altitudes. Best chances at MVFR CIG will be at MPV/SLK, but may
not consolidate given very dry boundary layer. Winds begin to
turn more westerly late in the period limiting upslope and
ushering in more clearing.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
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