705
FXUS61 KBTV 050003
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
803 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and unsettled weather continues through early this upcoming
week across the North Country, with additional showers likely and
temperatures slightly below normal. The highest probability of
precipitation and heaviest rainfall amounts tonight into Monday will
be across Rutland and Windsor counties, localized amounts greater
than 1 inch are possible. Very little rainfall is expected near the
International Border. Temperatures only cool into the mid 40s to mid
50s tonight and highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 803 PM EDT Sunday...The forecast is in excellent shape.
The most recent radar imagery loop shows a rapid tightening of
the precipitation gradient as anticipated with little movement
expected through the next several hours. That, in combination
with surface observations, makes for an even more dramatic
PoP/QPF gradient than what we are indicating. Allowing for
inherent uncertainty, the values currently shown look great
where 100% values are present in Windsor and Rutland Counties,
tapering to under 50% in northern Addison and Washington
counties and southern Caledonia County.
Previous Discussion...
Fcst challenge is pops and amount of qpf over the next 12 to 24
hours as a closed cyclonic circulation remains parked over the
Ohio Valley. These deep closed 7h/5h circulations always present
challenges with regards to pop timing and precip amounts and
the potential for flooding needs to be monitored closely over
the next couple of days.
RAP UA and GOES-19 water vapor shows a closed and vertically stacked
system over the Ohio Valley with deep rich moist conveyor belt acrs
the eastern seaboard into central PA. The combination of strong ulvl
divergence in the hght fields and rrq of 250mb jet is helping with
deep synoptic scale ascent and associated cooling cloud tops over
central/eastern PA/NJ attm. Meanwhile, strong high pres and
associated deep dry layer with pw values <0.30" is trying to push
south toward our northern cwa. Guidance consensus supports mean 850
to 500mb RH proggs <30% near the International Border by 00z this
evening, while pw values are surging northward over southern VT with
a sharpening moisture gradient. In addition, to deep layer moisture
advection, areas of enhanced mid lvl frontogenesis and mid lvl
deformation is lingering acrs Rutland/Windsor counties tonight. This
synoptic scale ascent wl interact with a lingering stationary
boundary over southern New England to produce periods of rain
overnight into Monday. Rainfall amounts will be between 0.50 and
1.0" with localized higher amounts possible on the favorable
southeast upslope areas of eastern Rutland/western Windsor counties.
HREF prob of qpf >1.0" is near 100% along and south of Route 4,
while prob of 2.0" or greater is south of our cwa. A strong/tight
north to south qpf/pop gradient is anticipated with very little near
the Border. I have pops near 100% south and <10% north tonight into
Monday.
By midday Monday deeper moisture is lifting back northward acrs our
central cwa, along with another axis of favorable 700mb
frontogenesis. Expecting rain shower activity to expand northward
midday Monday, especially as 925mb to 850mb southeast jet of 35 to
45 knot strengthens and helps to enhance better llvl moisture
convergence. Some downslope shadowing is likely along the western
slopes, along with localized gusts 20 to 30 knots, especially toward
00z Tues. Given the lack of instability tonight and Monday, feel
rainfall rates should limit any potential flooding, but we always
have to watch these deep and slow moving closed systems. Highs on
Monday wl once again be influenced by clouds with warmest values
north and coolest south, where clouds/precip are the most likely.
Generally highs in the mid 50s to mid/upper 60s acrs our fa.
Additional moisture and lift rotate from south to north acrs our cwa
on Monday night with more showers likely. Greatest concentration and
highest pops wl be in favorable southeast upslope areas, as 925mb
southeast jet strengthens to 40 to 45 knots overnight. Lows very
similar to previous couple of nights, mainly 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 326 PM EDT Sunday...Our friend the upper-level low will finally
begin to move to the northeast as blocking in the Atlantic breaks
down Tuesday. The low- level jet will continue Tuesday morning across
the mountain peaks, with gusts nearing 45 knots. Due to the
inversion, mixing towards the valleys should be limited, but
locations immediately west of the Greens and Adirondacks above 2000
ft could see continued gusty winds Tuesday morning, before calming
into Tuesday afternoon. The axis of moisture along the warm conveyor
belt will begin to surge northward with more widespread
precipitation likely across south-central Vermont during the day
Tuesday. In the areas under the moisture axis, QPF amounts between a
quarter to half an inch of rain is possible between Tuesday and
Wednesday. NBM 24-hr probabilities of 0.5 inches in southern Vermont
Tuesday into Wednesday are between 30- 50%, with higher amounts in
southern/eastern New England. Depending on the exact track of the
low, higher precipitation could slide north/west into our region, as
CAMs are suggesting. We will continue to monitor trends as the
system draws closer. As the center of the low tracks into the St.
Lawrence Valley by Tuesday afternoon, underneath the low,
instability will increase with SBCAPE mean values between 200-400
J/kg. Some scattered convection is possible Tuesday afternoon in
portions of St. Lawrence County, but should quickly dissipate
overnight Tuesday as clouds and mid-level warming increase,
decreasing the instability.
By Wednesday, light shower activity continues under south-
southeasterly flow. Like Tuesday afternoon, underneath the low,
marginal instability could build by the afternoon, with widespread
slight chances for thunderstorms. Temperatures will be heavily
dependent on any cloud cover that develops with any showers. With
any breaks and sunshine, 925hPa temperatures are around 10-12 C,
meaning 60s to 70s for highs both days are expected. Tuesdays low
will be relatively mild with values in the 50s across the valleys
and upper 40s for the higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 326 PM EDT Sunday...The main upper low finally begins to move
out of the region Wednesday night as the overarching trough swings
to the east. However, as the low exits, a surface cold front will
push into the area with lingering rain chances again. Temperatures
Wednesday night will be seasonably chilly in the 40s. Following the
front, temperatures quickly rebound back into the upper 60s for the
weekend with lows in the 40s. New guidance suggests a lower chance
of any frost/freeze potential Friday and Saturday morning from
previous guidance. Just as we think the precipitation might finally
be clear, another upper low looks poised to develop Thursday into
Friday across the Mid-Atlantic. Models are in disagreement on the
track and timing of this system. One solution shows a more
progressive low moving into the Gulf of Maine by Saturday with
little precipitation chances for the weekend, outside of portions of
the Northeast Kingdom. Another solution indicates a slower moving
system that retrogrades back into our region Saturday into Sunday,
making for yet another wet weekend. NBM probabilities of
precipitation still show near 20% overall, however, the trend has
been towards increased chances of rain for sun lovers. If you were
hoping for a completely dry weekend, it still is in play, but
chances are quickly diminishing.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Largely a persistent forecast in the next
6 to 12 hours with a stagnant pattern, resulting in continued
rain and very low ceilings at RUT, chances of rain at MPV on the
northern peripheral of precipitation, and otherwise VFR
conditions across the airspace. Towards 12Z a subtle pattern
change will develop with low level easterly flow developing,
which should help lower ceilings with MVFR conditions favored at
MPV and perhaps even PBG late in the day as moisture increases
amongst widely scattered showers. This rain will overspread portions
of the region, generally south and west of BTV, after 12Z moving
in from the south. Precipitation should be light in intensity
and move towards the north-northwest in a somewhat uncommon
direction.
A substantial increase in the easterly flow aloft
should result in turbulence and shear near RUT overnight into
Monday. Surface winds there should increase substantially
during the day with 12 to 18 knot sustained winds expected out
of the southeast. Elsewhere, lighter southeast winds are
expected, except northeasterly winds at MSS which should trend
gusty especially between 06 and 18Z, then easterly and lighter.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Taber
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Kutikoff/Taber
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