152
FXUS61 KBTV 050615
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
215 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 213 AM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast at this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 213 AM EDT Saturday...
1. A few showers today and Sunday but mainly dry through
Tuesday.
2. A more robust system is expected towards mid-late week,
followed by some cooler temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 213 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A retrograding area of low pressure system near Nova
Scotia will bring some isolated to scattered rain showers to the
region throughout the day. Models are showing weak moisture
transport but steepening mid-level lapse rates from cold advection
aloft with be able to utilize the modest moisture and produce some
showers through the day. We don`t expect any heavy rainfall with
amounts likely peaking around a tenth of an inch. Most places,
however, will remain dry through the day as areal coverage will not
be overly impressive. Rain chances will diminish as we head into
Sunday morning but an isolated shower cannot be ruled out for the
first part of Sunday. Thereafter, deep layer ridging will become
established across the North Country and northern New York with
mostly clear skies, light winds, and seasonably cool temperatures
expected on both Monday and Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Towards the middle of next week, a deepening low
centered well to our north will move eastward from Ontario to
Quebec, with associated frontal boundaries bringing more widespread
precipitation to our region, with the most widespread showers
currently expected Wednesday night into Thursday. Although there
will be plenty of moisture, the better dynamics will be further
north and the nocturnal timing will limit instability so widespread
thunderstorm activity is not expected but trends will need to be
monitored as we get closer. Behind this system, cooler weather will
return for the end of the week, with high temperatures on Friday
generally in the 60s to near 70 across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...A mix of flight conditions is expected
across terminals over the next few hours, with lowering
ceilings and intermittent mist/fog making for variable
conditions. Ceilings are expected to trend MVFR over the next
few hours, generally by 09Z or so with some intervals of IFR
possible. KSLK and KMPV are most likely to see IFR conditions,
but it will also be possible at KBTV, KEFK, and KRUT generally
between 09Z and 13Z as as low level inversion develops. In
addition to ceilings, some visibility reductions will be
possible with some mist/fog developing, most likely at
KSLK/KMPV/KEFK. Ceilings are expected to improve to MVFR by 15Z
with a mix of MVFR/VFR by 18Z and all terminals trending VFR by
21Z. Winds will generally be light and variable overnight, with
northerly winds 5 to 10 knots expected for tomorrow afternoon
with some gusts of 20 knots or so possible.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Patchy BR.
Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Labor Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Clay/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
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