500
FXUS61 KBTV 101905
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
305 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...

Greater confidence in sharply colder daytime temperatures on
Tuesday, especially in eastern Vermont and St. Lawrence Valley.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...

1. Rain associated with the remnants of Isaias will bring a
soaking rainfall Sunday night with no significant impacts for
our area.

2. An extended wet period from much of Monday night through
Wednesday morning is expected, associated with a slow moving and
thermally strong cold front.

3. Seasonably cool conditions in the middle to end of the week,
with a couple shower chances Wednesday, and a more defined system
potentially late week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1:

As seasonably strong high pressure (~1030 millibars) moves to our
southeast tonight, a tightening pressure gradient will develop with
modest south/southeast flow beneath thickening high altitude clouds.
Most notably terrain effects will lead to another breezy period
tomorrow morning on the east side of Lake Champlain in the northern
portions of the valley, where gusts should exceed 30 MPH for much of
the day and a Lake Wind Advisory will probably be needed. Otherwise,
we will await rain overspreading the region from the south as the
remnants of post-tropical cyclone Isaias move northeastward near the
Appalachian Mountains. The low track will then be shunted to the
east across the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night, but far enough
north such that plenty of lift and moisture will reach our latitude
before precipitation gradually exits to our east overnight.

High confidence of some rain, starting roughly sunset in southern
portions of the region and towards midnight in northeastern Vermont,
remains on track. Biggest impact of this rain would probably be
related to hydroplaning following an extended dry period, but
overall it should be a beneficial rainfall. Most guidance shows a
relatively short duration of lighter rain towards the International
Border where PoPs are somewhat lower on an hourly basis, but think
at least some rain will occur. Generally greater rainfall amounts
are more likely as you go southward with this event given the storm
track. However, strong mid-level frontogenesis will help produce
strips of heavier rainfall oriented from west to east, which are
always difficult to pin down. Rainfall rates for at least a few
hours will increase within these bands, likely 0.1-0.2" an hour,
well shy of truly heavy rain. As such, localized pockets of heavier
rain can be expected; think the 90th percentile amounts in the 1 to
1.5" range look reasonable as a reasonable high end amount which
still would not produce any hazardous hydrological conditions. That
said, the deterministic forecast is fairly close to the REFS
probability matched mean with more modest amounts; most likely storm
totals in our northernmost counties are less than 0.1" while
reaching about 0.5"-0.75" in Rutland and Windsor counties; most
areas in between will vary widely between 0.1"-0.5". Most likely
end time of rain in most locations is during the Monday morning
hours roughly from 2 to 5 AM in northernmost Vermont and
northern New York and 5 to 8 AM in the rest of Vermont. A very
narrow ridge will follow ahead our next weather system providing
mainly dry conditions during the day Monday, aside from
localized showers/drizzle in the mountains with lingering
moisture possibly trapped below an inversion around 2 to 3
thousand feet elevation. Valley locations will probably see
their warmest day of the week as a result.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Following the rain on Sunday night, another high
probability rainfall event (about 100% chance of rain) continues to
be expected for Tuesday. Moisture from the remnants of Tropical
Storm Rachel in the eastern Pacific will be carried out ahead of a
strengthening front approaching from the north while high pressure
builds in across eastern Canada, producing a cold air damming setup
for New England.

Rainfall amounts could be rather substantial, with high
statistical confidence of totals from Tuesday through Tuesday
night exceeding 0.5" for nearly all of our region, and even 1"
probabilities are in the 50-70% range in much of northern New
York and northern portions of Vermont. While the setup for
widespread rain with this boundary stalling out while a wave of
low pressure passing through our region is largely in good
agreement, the position of this system is highly uncertain.

Even with a relatively short lead time (day 4), there is very
large spread in the upper air pattern and associated position of
boundaries that lead to important differences in our sensible
weather. The GFS and most of its ensemble members have lower
heights upstream, leading to a low pressure track farther north
and warmer/more unstable air moving through our region.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF and many of its ensemble members, RRFS, and
NAM12 show a pronounced cold air damming scenario as shallow
cold air gets locked in across the St. Lawrence Valley and
eastern/northeastern Vermont. This scenario, in which low
pressure would be delayed and pass overhead or even south of our
region, would lead to an all day rain event. The aforementioned
areas would be quite chilly with temperatures holding in the
mid 40s to near 50, while south/southeast winds in the Champlain
Valley and Adirondacks transport deep moisture and maintain
somewhat milder air. We have trended temperatures this way given
the consensus; note there is some merit in the GFS depiction,
so the forecast remains unusually uncertain and we can expect
non-diurnal temperature fluctuations.

KEY MESSAGE 3: As our Tuesday system departs, decent caa will filter
seasonably cool air into the region from the northwest. Wrap around
moisture Wednesday associated with cooling aloft, will likely lead
to some shallow instability showers across the region. Isolated to
scattered showers will be possible, especially in the Northeast
Kingdom and Adirondacks. Expectations will likely follow breaks of
sun followed by a quick shower. PoPs will likely see increases in
the coming days as we get closer to mid week. Winds will also be
seasonably breezy with some channeled winds anticipated Wednesday.
Brisk breezy northwest winds can be expected. Temperatures will drop
slightly Wednesday into Thursday as weak ridging builds into the
region. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the low to mid
50s, with possible near 60s in southern Vermont depending on cloud
coverage. Lows Wednesday and Thursday night will dip into the low to
mid 30s areawide with some upper 20s across the Adirondacks.

The pattern then becomes quite varied amongst the global models.
There is good agreement in some sunshine Thursday, however, the
arrival of our next system remains in question. Model timing and
handling of a closed low in the Intermountain West is leading to
start difference between the GFS and Euro ensembles for
precipitation chances late next week into the weekend. Regardless,
there does look to be good chances for rain this weekend, but the
timing of the system is still uncertain. Additionally, regardless of
the timing, as our late week system arrives, a strong 50-60 knot jet
looks to be tied to the system which will bring chances for gusty
winds, especially for the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valley. GEFS
and Euro ensemble probabilities of gusts exceeding 25 MPH for most
locations is between 40-60% Friday into Saturday with probabilities
of gusts exceeding 35 MPH between 10-30% for the St. Lawrence and
northern Champlain Valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...All terminals are expected to remain VFR through
the entire TAF period. Light north-northwesterly winds, mainly 10
knots or less, will continue through sunset. A few isolated gusts
around 15 kts will be possible at BTV this afternoon, but should not
be prevailing. A subtle lake breeze is also ongoing at PBG, but
should go back to prevailing northerly or variable in the next few
hours. Winds will then weaken and turn to the south to southwest
between 00- 06Z for all terminals and begin to increase in magnitude
thereafter as a low level jet at 2000ft agl moves across the area.
LLWS may be present at times, but prevailing LLWS confidence is low
at this time, and not included in this TAF package. As winds turn to
the south, winds will increase back to 10-15 knots between 06-12Z
for all terminals. At BTV/PBG/MSS winds will continue to increase
into the late morning with channeled south flow to 15-20 MPH with a
few gusts increasing towards 25 MPH by the end of the TAF period.
SLK, will see similar more elevated winds around 15 knots, though
sheltering should keep the higher gusts more limited. With surface
winds increasing overnight, any chances for fog tonight should be
precluded. Skies will remain clear through the next 6 hours with
some high clouds building from the south this evening and overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig