630
FXUS61 KBTV 131922
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
322 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 322 PM EDT Tuesday...
Chances for scattered showers Thursday afternoon/evening have
increased in much of northern New York and northern Vermont.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 322 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. Widespread beneficial rain, along with a chance of
thunderstorms this evening, will taper off overnight. Modest rises
on area rivers are expected with no significant impacts.
2. Periods of breezy winds are expected over the next couple of
days, resulting in apparent temperatures as low as the mid 20s and
30s by late week.
3. A sharp cold front Friday night into Saturday with bring
sharply cooler temperatures into the weekend with continued gusty
winds and scattered terrain snow showers. Anyone with outdoor plans
for the upcoming weekend should monitor the forecast closely.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 238 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A quasi-stationary front has with continuous
moisture convergence and low level frontogenesis on its northern
flank has brought us quite a bit of welcomed rainfall. As of
this writing, uniform amounts just over 1.5" has been observed
across northern portions of northern New York and northwestern
Vermont, tapering to closer to 1" a bit farther south. Overall,
amounts through tonight should range widely as heaviest rainfall
will exceed 2" and lightest amounts in southern portions of
Vermont will be more like 0.5".
A plume of elevated convection over southeastern Ontario is
extending eastward and will be the focus of heavier rain through
this evening as it crosses the middle of the forecast area. This
is a narrow axis so it is hard to pin down exactly where it will
track, but radar trends suggest it will be roughly across the
central part of our region. However, large scale lift due to
the aforementioned front will keep enhancing rainfall regardless
of instability, which should be sufficient for broad coverage
of thunderstorms. Most unstable CAPE will likely approach 500
J/kg as very warm and moist air to the south of the boundary
continues advecting in ahead of the system`s cold front still
well to our west. Forecast soundings show the greatest
instability may be in the hail CAPE layer, supporting
possibilityof small hail but otherwise rumbles of thunder and
additional downpours can be expected tonight.
Because of extended long term dry weather, much of today`s rain
is being absorbed by the soil. However, enough runoff is
expected to lead to some small rises in area rivers and streams.
Flashier basins such as the Mad River has already seen some
response today, but no adverse impacts are expected.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Following a couple days of quiet weather with
abundant cloud cover but little if any rain, another certain
rainfall event is on the way for Friday. Model agreement is
exceptional for a large swath of rain to overspread the region
during the morning out ahead of a strengthening low pressure
system. A vigorous shortwave will dig over the western Great
Lakes, merging with a frontal system over the Midwest to help
intensify low pressure to our west. This storm will rapidly
move northeastward, passing near or right over our region (most
likely along the St. Lawrence Valley) Friday afternoon and
crossing into northern Maine Friday evening. The ECMWF extreme
forecast index is less excited about rainfall amounts compared
to the current event, but still shows a signal towards
substantial rainfall. The latest blend of models shows storm
totals largely in the 0.6" to 1" range through Friday evening.
Precipitation may be impacted by some our topography. A strong
southwesterly low level jet will produce downsloping in the
northern Champlain Valley, while our western slopes have a
little bit of a boost in rainfall amounts. The near surface
winds will also likely be strong out of the south with some
similarities to today where ongoing rain will limit mixing,
while any breaks in precipitation should support seasonably
strong (30-40 MPH) localized gusts. At this time, the potential
for hazardous winds aside from recreational interests looks low
during this period.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A cold front will sweep through the area Friday night
sharply lowering temperatures 10 to 15 degrees from Friday evening
to Saturday morning. Temperatures will likely dip below freezing for
most if not all locations across the area with only those near Lake
Champlain and immediately near the St. Lawrence River staying just
above freezing. As temperatures fall, snow levels during the day
Saturday will also lower to 500-1000ft agl, with a transition from
rain to snow above 1500ft agl, and a rain, wet snow mix, in
elevations between 1000-1500ft agl. A few mixed in flurries cannot
be ruled out even in the Champlain Valley, though temperatures will
be marginal in the mid to upper 30s. Some snowliage appears likely
with ensembles denoting nearly 100% chances for purely snowfall in
the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Snowfall impacts will be
minimal with road and ground temperatures well above freezing, and
with only marginal surface temperatures, snow will likely be of a
wet character, with minor accumulation only on the highest
elevations and mainly on vegetation only. Most locations will not
see any accumulations at this point. Current ensembles depict a 70-
90% chance of 1-2 inches of positive snow depth change in the heart
of the Adirondacks and locations in the Northeast Kingdom near the
International Border. Additionally, slightly higher amounts to a few
inches will be likely on the mountain summits of the central and
northern Greens and the Adirondacks, to include Whiteface and Lyon
Mountain in NY, and Mount Mansfield, Burke, and Killington in
Vermont.
In addition to the precipitation Friday night into Saturday, winds
will turn to the northwest with better confidence in stronger winds
Saturday due to a lack of precipitation limitations that existed
Friday. With an influx of cold northwest air, lapse rates will
quickly steepen with strong mixing beginning early Saturday morning.
Sustained winds will increase to 20 to 25 MPH, with 55-80% chance
for gusts over 40 MPH from the Adirondacks eastward on Saturday.
Recreators should also plan for mountain summit gusts as high as 40-
55 MPH, especially in the Adirondacks. While we don`t anticipate
needing a Wind Advisory (for gusts greater than 46 mph), trends will
need to be watched closely going forward. Surface winds will slowly
weaken back towards 10 MPH or less Saturday evening with gusts and
mountain winds following suit by Sunday.
Rain and snow showers will also taper off Saturday evening as the
system pulls away to the northeast. 850 mb temperatures Saturday
night will be remarkably cold for this time of year in the -9 to -
11C range Saturday night supporting temperatures in the 20s for most
of the area, including the entire Champlain Valley. Pockets of teens
will be possible in the coldest hollows of the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom as surface temperatures anomalies will be 10
degrees below normal. Temperatures will slowly moderate back towards
seasonable normals to start next week with highs Tuesday close to
60F.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Within this 24 hour TAF period, the first 8
hours will be the most complex. A stationary boundary remains across
our area extending from St. Johnsbury in Vermont to Ogdensburg, NY.
Widespread rain is ongoing and is expected to become more showery
than stratiform rain in the coming hours. Showers will continue
through 06Z, before tapering off with some mist potentially
lingering at the latest to daybreak tomorrow. There is an outside
chance of thunderstorms, particularly at MSS/BTV/SLK/PBG from 01-04Z
from west to east. Thunderstorms may lower visibilities briefly
towards IFR, with cigs remaining MVFR. In general, cigs will
generally be 1000-1500ft agl through the next 6 hours, with high
confidence in IFR at MSS through 00Z. Visibilities reductions should
remain prevailing 4-6SM, with a few bouncing IFR conditions under
heavier showers, mainly at MSS/PBG through 21Z. After 21Z, all
terminals outside of RUT should see cigs trend towards IFR with
probabilities of IFR at all sites increasing from 30-60% between
00-02Z. SLK/PBG will see trends towards IFR before BTV/MPV/EFK. RUT
will likely remain MVFR through the period. IFR ceilings are
expected to persist at terminals that get to IFR through at least
14Z, after which cigs will slowly improve towards VFR by the end of
the TAF period.
In addition to cig and vis reductions, southerly winds, outside
of MSS, will see continued intermittent gusts up to 20 knots or
so between showers, though gusts will not be constant. Winds
tonight will gradually turn southwest and then west to northwest
by daybreak tomorrow, with weakening gusts. Beyond daybreak,
northwest winds will turn terrain driven and breezy around 15-20
knots for the terrain terminals.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Likely SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Saturday: MVFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
Periods of rough lake conditions are anticipated this week into
the weekend. Today, a low level jet is moving across the region,
bringing periods of rough lake conditions. A Lake Wind Advisory
remains in effect for Lake Champlain`s broad waters. Southeast
winds 20 to 30 knots, with gusts up to 40 knots, will gradually
diminish this evening along with waves which are likely to
subside from 3 to 5 feet down to closer to 1 foot tonight. As
low pressure passes through, winds will sharply lower overnight
before turning northerly at a more modest 10 to 15 knots.
Additional periods of concern will be Wednesday night and again
Friday into Saturday as a couple of fronts move through the
region. Overall, it will not be a pleasant week to venture out
on Lake Champlain, especially in smaller watercraft.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A preliminary daily record rainfall occurred at PBG (Plattsburgh
area) today where the total has reached 1.28" as of this
writing, exceeding the previous record of 1.03" set in 2022.
Looking ahead to Saturday, daily low maximum temperatures are
likely. Current records are indicated below at some climate
sites in our region:
Record Low Maximum Temperatures:
October 17:
KBTV: 42/1970
KPBG: 44/2015
KSLK: 36/1970
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
MARINE...Storm/Kutikoff
CLIMATE...Kutikoff
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