876
FXUS61 KBTV 312351
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
751 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 238 PM EDT Monday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 238 PM EDT Monday...
1. Periods of showers tonight into tomorrow.
2. Heavier and more widespread rain Wednesday night with some
embedded thunderstorms.
3. Showery weather Friday trending drier by early next week as
upper low pressure departs to the east.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 238 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The surface high that brought the lower humidity and
sunshine today will gradually retreat to the east going into the day
tomorrow, as a low will attempt to push a warm front through.
However, it will fail to fully gain entry into the region and a
stationary boundary will end up getting stationed over or just south
of the region into Wednesday.
An area of steady rain will push into the region late tonight and
tomorrow morning, but most areas should just see an area of
relatively light stratiform precipitation and only pick up a couple
tenths of an inch, with the Northeast Kingdom possibly remaining
completely dry. However, an area of elevated convection may just
clip southern Vermont and St. Lawrence County and could lead to
locally higher totals of 1-1.5 inches. A few rumbles of thunder are
possible in those areas as well. However, it should occur over
several hours and the threat for flash flooding is very low. The
best synoptic forcing exits in the morning and despite the boundary
remaining around, there should only be a couple scattered showers
going through the day, but it will likely be dreary.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A more dynamic low pushes through Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, bringing rounds of heavy rain. This one currently
looks to make it just far enough northeast that the center passes
through. Therefore, the associated elevated convection looks to be
able to enter the region and bring periods of heavy rain and
embedded thunderstorms. However, due to the temperature profiles and
the nighttime occurrence, everything should remain elevated and not
be severe. It will be continued to be watched if the dynamics from
the storm would be strong enough to cause a couple storms with hail
or gusty winds to break the inversion at the surface. Currently,
most areas should receive around an inch of rain, but convective
enhancement will cause locally higher totals. GEFS/EPS/CMCE
probabilities of receiving more than an inch range between 25-50
percent and the probabilities of 2 inches are below 10 percent, but
the convective enhancement is not taken into account in those. The
flood threat is low at this point. The one thing that will continued
to be watched if the axis of heavy convective rain lines up with the
axis tonight, but even then there will be multiple days in between
and marginal totals.
KEY MESSAGE 3: An upper low will swing across eastern Maine
Friday/Friday night, bringing yet another round of showers,
especially over the northern high terrain. This feature will not
make much eastward progress over the weekend, keeping us under
cyclonic flow. There may be just enough moisture wrapping back into
the region to keep the threat of showers around, especially in the
afternoons, but don`t anticipate a washout by any means.
Temperatures may be a little on the cooler side, especially on the
higher summits, but this will depend on how much eastward progress
the upper low is able to make. Have stayed with the NBM/WPC forecast
for now since we`re a ways out, but adjustments may need to be made
as the weekend draws closer.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions remain across the
airspace. An area of thicker clouds with bases between 4 and
7kft is nearly stationary across the southwestern half of the
County Warning Area, splitting terminals roughly in half with
MSS/SLK/RUT within this cloudy zone. With only some passing high
clouds, MPV and EFK will be susceptible to another round of fog
as long as the lower clouds remain to the south and west; the
geography suggests EFK will be more favored to have a longer
duration of fog after 06Z.
The aforementioned boundary will also roughly mark where
scattered showers are most likely to roll through after 06Z and
especially after 12Z. The light rain will lead to further
lowering of ceilings with best chance for MVFR ceilings at SLK
and RUT for at least a short period during the morning.
Visibility in showers will tend to be as low as 5-6SM with a low
chance of temporary IFR conditions. Winds will remain light and
variable through the TAF period at all sites, generally at or
below 5 kts.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Myskowski
AVIATION...Kutikoff
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