884
FXUS61 KBTV 161824
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
224 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 221 PM EDT Friday...

The wind advisory has been cancelled. Winds will remain gusty
tonight and on Saturday but will remain below advisory threshold.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 221 PM EDT Friday...

1. Gusty winds to continue through Saturday with much cooler
temperatures on the way. First round of snowfall expected for the
high peaks tonight.

2. Next week continues to trend very quiet as high pressure
builds in across the area with temperatures near normal and high
confidence in an extended dry period of weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 221 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: We are currently in the warm sector ahead of an
approaching cold front with temperatures warming into the mid 50s to
lower 60s. As of 1 PM, the approaching cold front was located in far
western New York and will continue to quickly push east this
afternoon and evening. A sharp thermal gradient will allow for
temperatures to plummet quickly in the wake of the cold front with
an abrupt wind direction shift from the south to the northwest. With
increasing moisture in the warm sector, we should see rain showers
continue into the evening ahead of the front but rainfall amounts
don`t look to be anything impressive at this time. As rainfall taper
off in the wake of the cold front, the northwesterly flow regime
will support upslope rain and/or snow showers across the western
slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Our current thinking
is that locations above 2000 ft may be able to accumulate up to an
inch of snow while a few flurries could be seen as low as 1500 ft.
Overall impacts will be minimal and likely confined to grassy
surfaces as the ground temperature will remain above freezing
through the period of possible snow.

Saturday will be quite the transition to a more winter-like pattern
as temperatures will struggle to climb into the 40s while winds
remain gusty in the 20 to 30 mph range. This will lead to wind
chills in the 20s and 30s throughout the day with wind chills as low
as the single digits above and below zero across the high peaks. If
you plan to be outdoors tomorrow please dress for the weather as
this change in weather pattern may be surprising to many! Saturday
night will be the coldest night as winds finally abate and skies
clear with lows falling into the 20s to near 30 degrees with the
warmest values in and around Lake Champlain. A rebound to more
seasonal normal temperatures is expected for Sunday with highs
warming into the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A rex block will begin to develop for the Northeast as
surface high pressure builds in from the west on Monday with a
developing coastal low across the southeast. High pressure will keep
any moisture well to our south through the extended period, with
high confidence in an extended dry period. That said, some high
clouds and cirrus clouds will be possible early next week,
especially in southern Vermont. With the extended period of dry
weather anticipated, and trees losing leaves, fire weather concerns
may increase towards the latter portion of next week as we dry out
from this weeks rains early next week. Winds look to be on the weak
side with light and terrain driven flow under high pressure, which
should be beneficial to lowering fire weather concerns. Temperatures
will return to normal levels by early next week with highs in the
upper 50s to low 60s, and overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...The first 6-8 hours will be the most complex
period of this TAF period, with general improvements towards more
stable and calm conditions by tomorrow. A cold front is slowly
progressing from west to east with winds already at MSS from the
west. Periods of high IFR to low MVFR will continue ahead of the
front for terrain TAF sites, not including BTV/PBG, with TEMPO IFR
groups for MPV for the next hour. As the boundary moves through each
site between now and 00Z, ceilings may briefly reduce towards IFR
with some intermittent IFR vis reductions, but conditions are
expected to trend towards VFR thereafter. Have used TEMPO and PROB30
groups to denote where confidence is highest in terminal reductions
associated with the boundary. SLK will likely see IFR cigs continue
through 04Z before northwest flow helps scour out the low level
clouds. Winds will also shift from the south to the west around
20-22Z with a general weakening of wind gusts during the wind shift.
Lingering LLWS for all terminals will decrease with the passage of
the front at each terminal. As winds become more west to northwest
overnight tonight, mixing will continue with gusts returning to
around 20-25 kts for most terminals, especially at BTV/PBG. Closer
to sunrise tomorrow, some blocked flow will return to BTV with some
MVFR cigs possible. Elsewhere scattered to broken ceilings
2500-3500ft agl will linger behind the cold front before trending
VFR to 4000-5000ft agl by the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for much of Lake
Champlain through Saturday afternoon. Although the strongest
winds have ended, we will continue to see 15 to 30 knot winds
across the lake through Saturday. Winds are from the south at
the moment but will switch to the north after sunset following
the passage of a cold front. Winds may briefly weaken below 25
knots as the wind shift occurs but winds are expected to ramp
back up during the overnight hours. Wave have subsided to 2 to 4
feet and will likely subside further as the wind shift occurs
but waves in the 2 to 4 ft range will likely develop again on
Saturday with the persistent northerly winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily low maximum temperatures will likely be broken on Saturday.
Current records at some climate sites in our region are as
follows:

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

October 17:
KBTV: 42/1970
KPBG: 44/2015
KSLK: 36/1970

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Clay
AVIATION...Danzig
MARINE...Clay
CLIMATE...NWS BTV