921
FXUS61 KBTV 221905
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
305 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes have been made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...

1. Localized gusty north winds this evening will taper off,
then dry and seasonable weather with a warming trend will follow
through the weekend.

2. Quiet and dry weather is expected to continue into early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Sensible weather will continue to be quite agreeable for
outdoor activities. Aside from a ribbon of clouds moving through
from north to south this evening, a return to sunny days is expected
as high pressure slowly builds in through the weekend. Main impacts
for this period will be related to winds this evening on Lake
Champlain, and then possible fire weather concerns over the weekend
with critically low relative humidity values likely in parts of
the region.

A moisture-starved cold front passed through the region today,
detached from a ribbon of higher moisture behind it. Satellite
imagery shows this cloud cover is tied to a corridor of higher
relative humidity in the 925-850 millibar layer, with the air mass
above that layer very dry. Hence, north of this region there are
just some diurnally driven clouds and we can expect skies in our
region to trend clear overnight.

A period of relatively fast pressure rises this evening is
expected with accelerated northerly flow through the Champlain
Valley as skies clear out again. Roughly between 7 PM and 10 PM
we expect the strongest northerly winds in the 20 to 30 knot
range on Lake Champlain with similar gusts in the eastern
Champlain Valley. Northerly, rather than a more common
northwesterly, flow will continue into Friday with a general
decay of wind speeds as high pressure builds in.

The lightening wind will lead to a chilly night and have leaned
towards colder guidance. At perennial cool spot SLK/Adirondack
Regional Airport, a daily minimum temperature is possible (14
degrees). Any passing high clouds should have little affect on
surface temperatures during the period. Also, as temperatures
moderate aloft, both Saturday and Sunday will feature the return
of the typical cold season surface inversion with mountain
summits relative mild. Generally Sunday morning looks a bit less
cold than Saturday morning as light south winds will interfere
with the nocturnal boundary layer.

Forecast soundings through the next three days show very dry air
aloft and correspondingly anomalously low precipitable water.
While localized low humidity is expected tomorrow, cool
northerly advection doesn`t favor particularly low surface
humidity at the surface. Dew points in the 20s are expected
over the next couple of days, and with milder temperatures on
Saturday reaching the upper 50s in most locations, this is the
day when most locations will likely see their lowest relative
humidities. Slight improvement on Sunday is expected with
regards to fire weather concerns as some modest moisture
advection occurs. Light winds through the weekend should
minimize fire spread, however.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The stretch of quiet and dry weather looks continue into
next week as the region remains under the influence of high
pressure. The ridge axis will shift slightly eastward late Sunday
into Monday, allowing for some light southwest flow and warmer
temperatures. Daytime high temperatures on Monday look to warm into
the upper 50s to mid 60s. A weak cold front looks to move through
late Monday, but it will be quite moisture starved with no
precipitation expected from this feature. Some cooler air will move
in behind the front, with high temperatures on Tuesday expected to
be in the mid 40s to low 50s. At this time, it looks like the dry
stretch will continue through much of next week. Despite the
prolonged stretch of dryness, winds look to remain light enough to
limit any fore weather concerns at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Despite a prolonged detachment from rain, and
anticipated persistence forecasting, area of localized fog has
developed around MPV/SLK this morning, with VCFG at RUT. Any
lingering IFR vis/cig reductions are expected to trend to VFR by
13Z. Beyond 13Z, a weak frontal boundary will pass through generally
between 15-17Z as light and variable winds turn prevailing from the
north. As the front moves through, increasing clouds will lower
scattered cigs towards 3000-4000ft agl. Winds will increase slightly
behind the front through the rest of the day with north winds around
10 knots across Vermont, and occasional gusts between 15-20 knots.
In northern New York, any gusts should remain below 15 knots. Winds
weaken after 00Z towards light and terrain driven. Another clear and
calm night is expected for all terminals tonight, with some hints at
repeat fog at MSS/SLK/MPV, though it will be tied to the later
portion of tonight, with some subtle flow aloft in the beginning
portion of the night limiting early fog development. Given low
confidence at this time, have left out any fog or terminal
reductions in this TAF package.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for this afternoon and evening
during a period of marginally strong north flow. Winds today have
gradually ramped up, particularly in the broad and southern
waters as typical for these events. Expect they will mainly be 20
to 30 knots through this evening before gradually subsiding
overnight into the 15 to 25 knot range, and then 10 to 20 knot
range by daybreak. Corresponding peak wave heights will tend to
be 2 to 4 feet, with localized 3 to 5 feet briefly near
Willsboro Point towards midnight, and then relax into the 1 to 3
feet range overnight.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
MARINE...Kutikoff