485
FXUS61 KBTV 101728
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
128 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 227 AM EDT Monday...
No significant changes were made to the forecast. Shower and
thunderstorm chances are expected this afternoon and evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 227 AM EDT Monday...
1. A weak cold front will bring increasing chances of showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with drier
conditions late Tuesday and Wednesday.
2. Widespread showers arrive towards the end of the week, with
drier conditions expected heading into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 227 AM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: 500 mb flow has gone mostly zonal promoting
weaker variety systems rather than deeply forced events this
week. The next front arrives late this afternoon and will move
through this evening. Upper level support remains anemic with
primary forcing existing in the 850-700mb layer. Timing coupled
with forcing will limit the threat of stronger storms, but CAPE
around 1000j/kg and moderate shear could support a rarer
stronger cell if it can efficiently tap into low level
instability or if outflow interacts with the surface front.
PWATs climbing above 1.5" will favor some heavy shower elements
and a few cells could produce localized heavy rainfall resulting
in ponding. As noted above, flow will be quite progressive
leading to a fast exit tonight with drier conditions for
Tuesday. Northwest flow tonight increases, especially across
Lake Champlain, and may result in some rough lake conditions.
Dry weather lingers through Wednesday as the Bermuda High
continues its slow retreat into the Atlantic. Temperatures will
slowly trend cooler with highs remaining in the mid/upper 70s to
low 80s across northern New York and Vermont.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A shortwave trough looks to push
through the region Thursday into Friday, bringing widespread
shower chances towards the end of the week. Deterministic
guidance continues to be in good agreement on the general
pattern evolution, though there is still some uncertainty
regarding the timing of the system. The current forecast shows
rain chances ramping up quickly during the early morning hours
on Thursday with widespread rainfall expected across the upper
level trough swings through Thursday afternoon. As we get closer
we will have to monitor the potential for a few stronger
thunderstorms during the afternoon on Thursday, with instability
the biggest question at this time. Behind the trough, a cold
front is expected to bring below normal temperatures and drier
weather to the region for Friday into the upcoming weekend. Deep
layer ridging is expected to develop by Saturday which should
bring plenty of sunshine with highs in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...A warm front and weak cold front will bring
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening with drier conditions late Tuesday. A few of these showers
and storms could produce localized heavy rainfall, but flow will be
progressive enough to keep the cells moving. About 30% chance of
some showers spreading from west to east across northern New York
and Vermont through 00Z Tuesday, becoming more widespread into the
evening. Highest chance overall of precipitation will be from 22Z
Monday through 04Z Tuesday, which could lower visibilities 3-5
miles, briefly lower in any heavier downpours. There is also the
potential for thunderstorms during this period, most likely at
BTV, SLK, MPV, and MSS. With and following these showers and
storms early Tuesday morning, low level moisture is expected to
linger at several sites, and any breaks in clouds could lead to
quick radiational fog. Most likely site for IFR conditions is
SLK from 06Z-13Z Tuesday, though MPV and EFK both have some
potential for cig and vis degradations around this time as well.
Much will depend on the strength of the inversion that develops
in the subsidence behind the storms, and the spots that see
more rainfall from the afternoon/evening storms will be more
likely to have fog, especially those that have clearing skies
and lighter winds. Winds this afternoon and into tonight will be
mainly southwesterly, turning more west-northwesterly Tuesday
morning, following the passage of the cold front. Some brief
LLWS is possible Tuesday morning as winds aloft turn and
increase more quickly than winds at the surface.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer
AVIATION...Storm
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