945
FXUS61 KBTV 221854
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
254 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 254 PM EDT Saturday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast. The SPC
Severe Weather Outlook for tomorrow shows the region in a Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 5) with the potential for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 254 PM EDT Saturday...

1. After a dry and seasonable afternoon, precipitation chances
will increase across the region tonight through the start of the
week.

2. Following a dry midweek period, the next chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms arrives in the late Thursday to
Friday timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 254 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: After a stretch of dry and seasonable weather the last
few days, shower chances will return later tonight through the
weekend. The main feature driving precipitation chances is a large
upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes. A frontal
boundary associated with the parent low will move through tomorrow
afternoon, driving the chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the afternoon. Model guidance shows modest
instability tomorrow afternoon, with CAPE values of 500 J/kg or so
depending on the location, although there is some uncertainty as to
how much cloud cover lingers through the morning and inhibits
afternoon heating. While it`s not the most impressive environment,
there should be enough instability, shear, and forcing to drive
thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon. SPC currently shows
nearly all of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk for severe
weather tomorrow, meaning that a few isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, with possible hail and strong winds as
the primary threats. The most likely time frame for thunderstorms
will be from noon through about 7PM, so be sure to monitor the
forecast if you have any outdoor plans. Storms looks to be
progressive, limiting any hydro concerns at this time, especially
given the dry weather the last few days. Current rainfall forecasts
generally show about 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain across the area,
with lower amounts near the International Border and higher amounts
possible within any thunderstorms.

For the start of the week, the region will remain in broad cyclonic
flow, will will allow for linger showers on Monday and Tuesday,
especially across the higher terrain. This cyclonic flow will also
lead to some lake effect showers off Lake Ontario, with increased
shower chances expected across northern New York during this time
period. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs only
climbing into the 70s, with some locations in the Adirondacks
struggling to climb out of the upper 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Long wave troughing appears to remain over the eastern
US later next week, with the base of the trough to our west. As
such, the pattern will be somewhat unsettled with chances for
showers returning late in the week. The low pressure track is
strongly favored to be well to our north into central or northern
Quebec, so widespread heavy rain or strong wind is not on the table,
and deep layer shear appears limited for severe storms at this time.
Of the latest ensemble scenarios, ones with a bit more amplified
trough than the mean upper level heights show 0-500 millibar shear
probabilities exceeding 30 knots at a greater than 30% chance
(rather than close to 0%).

Probable hazards for this system would be fairly widespread, general
thunderstorm potential associated with the system`s cold front,
which may be thermodynamically strong. Machine learning and other
ensemble guidance does suggest seasonably high instability for late
August could be present, with a slight preference for stronger
variety thunderstorms as you go southward (roughly 5% chance of
severe weather per GEFS). With a faster timing of an incoming cold
front, this threat may be limited to Thursday, and a slower timing
would suggest Friday would be a day to watch for thunderstorms,
especially in Vermont. The latest guidance has trended perhaps a
little more towards the later timing, consistent with an occluding
low pressure system and associated slowing eastward progress of a
cold front. For now, a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday
evening, and slight chance to chance Friday afternoon in most of the
region, seems reasonable at this point. Given the amount of outdoor
activities anticipated on Friday and large scale setup for
thunderstorm potential, this will be a period to keep a close eye.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z
at all sites. Thereafter, a low stratus layer may develop at MPV;
confidence on its development is relatively low, so have indicated a
trend towards MVFR ceilings during the early morning hours with
consensus on lowest ceilings around 12Z or soon after. Meanwhile
shower chances will be increasing generally from west to east, with
temporary MVFR conditions due to a combination of visibility and
ceilings favored at all sites. Timing of showers looks late enough
to leave out of this TAF cycle at EFK and MPV. Along with the
showers, a belt of slightly stronger south-southeast winds aloft
will move overhead, which should be enough for LLWS at MSS.
Otherwise, occasionally gusty winds in the 15 to 20 knot range are
favored this afternoon into the evening at BTV, RUT, and MPV; south
to southeast winds will tend to diminish after 00Z and pick back up
in the 10-14Z period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Kremer
AVIATION...Kutikoff