443
FXUS61 KBTV 042328
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
628 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 219 PM EST Wednesday...
No significant changes made.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 219 PM EST Wednesday...
1. Scattered rain showers will impact the region on Thursday,
with rainfall amounts ranging between a few hundredths to a few
tenths of an inch.
2. Unsettled weather with temperatures slowly returning closer
to normal expected on Saturday.
3. Drier early next week with showers later in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 219 PM EST Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor imagery indicates ridge and
subsidence is directly overhead this aftn while ribbons of better
mid lvl moisture is angling toward the SLV/western NY. Meanwhile,
deep and closed off vertically stacked cyclonic circulation is over
the northern Plains with strong southerly warm-moist conveyor belt
acrs the Ohio Valley. This deep moisture advection, combined with
initial pre-trof 700-500mb s/w energy wl result in a broken line of
showers on Thurs. Crnt proggs have highest probability of precip
btwn 12z-18z, with secondary line of precip possible btwn 21z-00z.
Did note a weak sliver of MUCAPE of 150-300 J/kg, so a rumble or two
of thunder is possible. However, given the weak thermodynamics and
forcing confidence is low on thunder, so have not mention in grids
attm. Rainfall amounts wl vary from one to location to another,
given the scattered nature of showers, but with pw values 1.25 to
1.40" a few heavier downpours are possible. Basin average rainfall
mainly btwn 0.10 and 0.25" with highest values over the High Peaks
in Essex County, NY.
A very warm night is anticipated tonight with lows mid 40s to near
60F, due to increasing clouds and southerly flow. Coolest values
deeper protected valleys of central/eastern VT and warmest CPV. As
gradient strengthens btwn approaching cold front and departing ridge
the 925mb to 850mb wind fields increase btwn 25 and 45 knots tonight
into Thurs. The latest RRFS sounding profiles at BTV and CLCR show
300 feet agl winds of 25 to 35 knots, but warmer air moving over
cooler warm suggests a stable bl. Still believe with 33 knots at 300
feet agl a Lake Wind Advisory wl be required tonight into Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Latest synoptic scale progs show additional deepening of
mid/upper lvl cyclonic circulation over the central Great Lakes,
while elongated vorticity and associated sfc boundary is draped acrs
the eastern seaboard. The system looks just a little unphased on
Friday with our cwa underneath mid lvl dry slot. This should result
in a mostly dry Friday with comfortable temps well into the 60s. As
closed circulation moves toward western NY/PA weak low pres develops
over SNE coast with invert trof extending back toward central NY.
This complex mid/upper system and associated track of sfc low pres
and placement/amount of precip on Friday night into Saturday is
still to be determined. The highest probabilities from the NBM are
acrs central/eastern VT attm, but would not be surprised if chances
expand back toward northern NY, given the closed circulation. As
system evolves on Saturday, expect developing cyclonic upslope flow
to occur, placing highest pops/qpf acrs the northern Dacks into the
central/northern Greens. Still some uncertainty on timing of
upslope flow and when the cooler air aloft arrives. Temps wl be
slowly stepping back toward normal by this upcoming weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Early next week is looking drier as large ridge of
surface high pressure builds over the eastern Conus. The
amplification and break down of this ridge area both handled
differently between the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS brings the ridge in
faster and pushes it further north, while the ECMWF shunts it off to
our south. For the second half of the week, the weather looks more
active as we will have upper level trough overhead and shortwaves
passing through upper level flow bringing several chances for
showers.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to last through the
night. An organized round of showers will move through from west to
east, starting at MSS around 11Z. They will then reach EFK by around
14-15Z. They will last a couple hours and then exit, with a
lingering isolated shower or two possible behind. For most cases,
they will not be heavy enough to significantly reduce the
visibility, though a brief occurrence of MVFR will still be
possible. As the showers move in, ceilings will begin to lower. By
around 18-21Z, they should be MVFR for most terminals. LLWS is
expected at MSS and RUT for periods of the night, and while it may
not hit formal criteria elsewhere, it will still be strong. Winds
will generally be around and under 10 KT tonight from the south and
southwest. During the day tomorrow, they will increase into the
10-20 KT range for most terminals, with gusts to 25 KT possible at
BTV, PBG and MSS.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for tonight. Expect south
winds 5 to 15 knots this evening to increase to 15 to 25 knots
after midnight while peaking just prior to rain arrival on
Thursday morning. A few localized gusts up to 30 knots is
possible near sunrise on Thursday, before winds decrease below
advisory criteria. Wave build 1 to 3 feet overnight into
Thursday morning.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 228 PM EST Wednesday...
Extreme warmth for this time of year is likely today. As a result,
some daily record temperatures may be set, with the greatest
chance at KMSS.
High Temperatures:
Site | Record
KMSS | 71 (2022)
KBTV | 73 (1982)
KPBG | 72 (1990)
KMPV | 72 (2022)
KSLK | 74 (1944)
SJBV1 | 73 (1990)
High minimum temperature record for today:
Site | Record | Forecast
KBTV | 54 (2022) | 56
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Taber/Neiles
AVIATION...Myskowski
MARINE...Taber
CLIMATE...Kutikoff
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