253
FXUS61 KBTV 312312
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
712 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 236 PM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 236 PM EDT Saturday...
1. Expect a warming trend and mainly dry weather through the
next several days.
2. Gusty winds mid week followed by a cold front late week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 236 PM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures today are running just a little below
seasonal norms for Halloween, with chilly 850 millibar temperatures
in the -4 to -6 Celsius range close to where a subsidence inversion
is present east of a ridge of high pressure. This is where our
shallow clouds are, and the prevalence of stratocumulus this
afternoon has been much more widespread than modeled. In turn,
maximum temperatures are going to underachieve a bit in many areas
with highs mainly in the low to mid 40s. That said, this should have
little bearing on tonight`s temperatures. In fact, have noted the
National Blend of Models (NBM) looks perhaps too cold with influence
of recent warm bias correction during a dry and calm pattern. Have
nudged temperatures a touch warmer noting some lingering breezes and
position of high pressure south of the region rather than overhead,
but otherwise clearing skies and decoupling in most locations should
result in a cold start to November.
Thereafter, nearly continuous warm air advection is expected from
the west and southwest, leading to above normal temperatures Sunday
through Tuesday. Through this period, the warmest air will remain to
our west so we`re not looking at anything unusually warm. Any
potential rain will be tied to the trajectory of a feed of deep
moisture/decaying Atmospheric River entering the southwestern US
tonight. Some of the moisture will rapidly push northeastward as a
deep trough lifts across the Rockies and a Colorado low forms
tomorrow night. The storm track will be quite amplified/stay well to
our west through midweek and anomalous moisture stays to our north.
Trends have continued to suggest that the polar jet gets absorbed
into this system by Tuesday morning while high pressure builds back
over our region following slightly enhanced gradient flow on Monday.
However, frontal forcing for light rain may make its closest
approach Tuesday afternoon, as some low level moisture gets pulled
northward around the ridge of high pressure centered over the
western mid-Atlantic region to support increasing rain chances. In
any case, where clouds wind up being thick and persistent,
temperatures will end up being a bit lower than currently forecast.
Greatest chances of the cooler/cloudier scenario is over the
northern St. Lawrence Valley, and secondarily across north
central/northeastern Vermont and the remainder of northern New York.
Otherwise, most likely highs both Monday and Tuesday will be about
10 to 15 degrees above normal in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The next significant weather maker will be a large
trough / cold front late next week. Models are coming into agreement
that the trough will come off the Rocky Mountains on Tuesday or
Wednesday and begin to develop into a large area of low pressure
over the Plains. The timing and intensity of this front remains
highly questionable, as it will need to work around a ridge of high
pressure off the Atlantic Coast. The current thinking is we`ll see
winds ramp up on Wednesday and Thursday as the pressure gradient
between the ridge and trough tightens. The setup favors channeled
flow into the Champlain Valley, with southerly winds bringing gusts
up to 30mph. The main low pressure system will then slide into the
northeast sometime between Friday and next Sunday. The GFS solution
has the low moving quicker, with less intensity while the Euro is
showing the low becoming more pronounced and bringing precipitation
to northern New York and Vermont through Sunday. We do have some
time before the impacts arrive and will continue to update the
forecast as the forecast comes into focus.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR through the forecast period with no
precipitation expected as high pressure continues to build into
the region. Lingering SCT/BKN cigs in the 035-060 AGL range to
trend SKC at all terminals in the 00-06Z time frame under light
and variable winds. SKC conditions continue through Sunday with
winds trending light south to southwesterly from 4-8 kts by
afternoon.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Langbauer
AVIATION...JMG
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