885
FXUS61 KBTV 031901
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
301 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 254 PM EDT Thursday...
No significant changes with this forecast package.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 254 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Chances for afternoon showers will continue throughout the
week, before drier conditions return towards Sunday.
2. Several rounds of showers are expected next week but
significant weather is not expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 254 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Upper level trough and low pressure will remain
over our region through Saturday. Scattered afternoon showers
are expected each day, varying in intensity based on potency of
shortwaves passing through. Tricky to time which day will have
the best chance for showers, but presently looks like Saturday
may have the most showers. Sunday will trend drier as upper
level trough finally slides eastward and away from our area.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler than seasonal normals through
the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Deep layer ridging will make a brief appearance
on Monday bringing sunshine, light winds, and seasonal
temperatures to the North Country and northern New York. This
period of dry weather will be short-lived as a shortwave trough
in the northwesterly flow aloft flattens the longwave ridge and
drives a cold front through the region Monday night into Tuesday
morning. This should spark a few showers but no thunderstorms
or impactful weather are expected with this system as we will
seriously lack deep moisture. Thereafter, a series of low
amplitude shortwaves are expected to move across the region
through the second half of the work week. Periods of light
showers seem plausible through much of the week with ample
period of dry weather between rounds of showers. However, if you
are looking for an extended period of dry weather, next week
does not look favorable for that at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Isolated showers are likely this afternoon
and evening until around 03Z-05Z Friday. Any shower could bring
with it visibilities 4-6 miles and MVFR level clouds. Chances
for afternoon showers will continue Friday and Saturday before
drier conditions return towards Sunday. Overall cloud layers
this afternoon vary and fluctuate around 1300-5000 feet above
ground level. A general clearing trend is anticipated into the
evening, which can already be seen beginning on satellite
imagery. As high pressure noses into the region tonight after
recent (in the case of MSS, heavy) rainfall, we anticipate
patchy and dense valley mist and fog to develop overnight. This
afternoon`s southerly winds 5-15 knots are expected to turn more
westerly this evening with the passage of a weak cold front,
then drop to light and variable overnight. This should allow
SLK, MPV, and EFK to see visibilities drop in mist and fog, as
low as 1/2 to 2 miles by 07Z-09Z Friday, with other sites
potentially seeing some 3-6 mile mist as well. Main limiting
factor for fog will be the lack of a strong high pressure
overhead and if any of the current lower clouds linger into the
night to block radiational cooling. Conditions are likely to
return to widespread VFR levels by 15Z-17Z Friday as winds
increase out of the northwest 5-10 knots.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Labor Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Storm
AVIATION...Storm
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