631
FXUS61 KBTV 202320
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
720 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 218 PM EDT Tuesday...
No significant changes to the current forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 218 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. Large ridge of surface high pressure will keep conditions
dry with seasonable temperatures through late week.
2. Dry and seasonable conditions continue through the beginning
of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 218 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Period of dry weather continues for the north
country as large ridge of surface high pressure nudges into our
area out of Canada. Lots of dry air remains in place, and winds
are out of the north following the passage of a weak surface
boundary this morning. After afternoon ranging highs ranging
through the 50s today, minimum temperatures overnight will dip
into the mid 20s to mid 30s, warmest along Lake Champlain where
the temperatures will be closer to 40. Ideal radiational cooling
conditions, will also lead to some patchy fog developing in the
typically fog prone spots. Surface high will retreat to the
north and east of our area tomorrow as a Nor`easter meanders off
the east coast. Wednesday night a weak cold front will cross
our area, bringing colder conditions for Thursday and Friday to
close out the work week, with another surface ridge of high
pressure building into our area from the northwest. Maximum
temperatures on Friday will struggle to get out of the 40s.
Winds will also be brisk out of the north, especially on
Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A classic stretch of fall weather will continue
this weekend and into the beginning of next week. Surface high
pressure will be centered almost directly overhead over the
weekend, leading to clear skies, light winds and highs in the
50s. Most mornings will be frosty with lows in the 20s and 30s.
A moisture starved cold front moves through Monday and Monday
night and while a brief sprinkle or mountain flurry is possible
during its passage, it will be pretty much completely dry.
Temperatures rise to around 60 Monday, before highs drop back
into the 50s and potentially upper 40s for Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected under
clear skies. Some fog is possible this evening, given the
favorable radiational cooling. However, dry conditions may
prevent fog formation. Trends for fog have decreased some, and
have thus trended fog in TEMPOs towards 3 or 4SM with the
highest probabilities at KMPV and KMSS, with the primary window
between 09z-12z. Light and variable flow, with terrain
southeasterly winds at KRUT will remain through about 12-14z,
and then trend increasingly variable after 14z.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Myskowski
AVIATION...Haynes
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