732
FXUS61 KBTV 280631
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
231 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 231 AM EDT Monday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 231 AM EDT Monday...
1. Rounds of showers will continue throughout the day today,
with conditions trending drier for Tuesday and mid-week as high
pressure builds into the region
2. Our next chance for rain will be with a cold frontal passage
Thursday into Friday, followed by cooler weather for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 231 AM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Another day of cool and showery weather is expected
across the region today as additional rounds of showers move through
the region as the system to our south slowly drifts eastward.
Greatest rainfall amounts for today are expected across eastern and
southern Vermont, where totals are expected to be between 0.25 and
0.5 inches of rain, while northern New York looks to remain on the
drier side. The showers and cloud cover will keep temperatures on
the cool side for this time of year, with highs only climbing into
the upper 50s and low 60s.
Shower activity will gradually wane through the evening and
overnight hours tonight as the low shifts away, with drier weather
conditions expected to prevail throughout much of the day Tuesday as
high pressure begins to build into the region. The drier conditions
are expected to continue through much of the week, with temperatures
gradually trending warmer as well. High temperatures on Tuesday will
only be in the 50s and lower 60s again, but by Thursday widespread
highs in the 70s are expected.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front will make its way southward across our
region late Thursday into Friday, bringing increasing chances of
precipitation along with it. The best forcing will remain well to
our north, so anticipate scattered to perhaps widespread showers,
mostly light to occasionally moderate in nature. Thunder is not
anticipated given the unfavorable timing of the frontal passage
(overnight Thu into early Fri AM). High pressure will immediately
follow the front, ushering in a drier and cooler airmass for at
least the first half of the weekend. Sunday is a bit less certain;
the 00z GFS and to a lesser extent, the 00z CMC indicate a wave of
precipitation lifting into our region sometime Sunday. The
deterministic GFS is the most aggressive with this feature, though
it does the support of a few of its ensemble members, along with
some GEPS members, as well. Didn`t get a chance to look at the 00z
ECMWF, but the 12z run held off any precipitation until Sunday
night/Monday, though again, some of its ensemble members show a
rainy and cool Sunday. Given these differences, have stayed with the
WPC/NBM forecast, which gives low chance PoPs for Sunday.
Temperatures will be warmest on Friday, in the mid 60s to near 70F,
then trending cooler with highs in the 60s and lows in the low 30s
to low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Scattered showers will persist through the
first several hours of the TAF period, becoming more widespread from
12z onward, particularly after 18z. A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings early
in the period will eventually lower to MVFR at all terminals as
moisture increases. Can`t rule out IFR conditions, especially as we
head toward 00z Tue. Have gone with ceilings below 1000 ft at
MPV/SLK/RUT where confidence in IFR is highest. Showers have mainly
been handled with PROB30 given the scattered nature, but prevailing
-SHRA has been included for the afternoon at most terminals.
Visibility mainly 4-6SM in any precipitation. Rain will wind down
after 23z, but wouldn`t be surprised for lingering fog or drizzle to
keep visibilities 4-6SM for the remainder of the TAF period. N/NE
winds remain light through the period, mainly less than 10 kt. Some
LLWS is possible at RUT/EFK for the first 4-6 hours of the TAF
period, but LLJ will move out as low pressure pulls away from the
region.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
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