247
FXUS61 KBTV 141726
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
126 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 126 PM EDT Friday...

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 126 PM EDT Friday...

1. A couple showers today before dry weather tomorrow.

2. Periods of rain late Sunday into Monday.

3. Near seasonable temperatures with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 126 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak shortwave will pass through the region from
northwest to southeast this afternoon and evening, but the strongest
dynamics will mostly be to the south. An associated area of showers
and embedded thunderstorms has developed west of Ottawa and those
will move southeast into southwestern St. Lawrence County. A briefly
stronger storm is possible there. The storms should mostly pass
south of Rutland County, though a brief isolated shower is possible
there. Pea sized hail and gusty winds are possible in the strongest
storm in St. Lawrence County. After that, a gorgeous opener to the
weekend will occur on Saturday with seasonably cool temperatures and
low humidity.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A double barrel low will move into the region late Sunday
into Sunday night, bringing rounds of rain. The primary low will
track well north of the St. Lawrence, while the secondary low will
try to spin up off the coast of southern New England, but they will
both remain on the weaker side. The Euro ensembles generally bring
the heavier rain associated with the southern low farther north and
into the region, while the GEFS members generally split the region
between the areas of low pressure and bring lighter precip. Overall,
combined EPS/GEFS/CMCE probabilities of receiving more than a half
inch are between 40-70 percent, and the probabilities of seeing more
than an inch are less than 10 percent. Some convective enhancement
is possible across southern areas, but no flooding is expected. Very
weak lapse rates, a notable inversion and unfavorable timing should
prevent much of a severe threat, though a trend north in storm track
could still produce something, so the threat will continue to be
watched. A few lingering showers are possible on Monday as a weak
shortwave moves through under broad cyclonic flow.

KEY MESSAGE 3: High pressure and calm weather embedded in broad
cyclonic flow will continue through Tuesday as temperatures slowly
rise to near or just above seasonable levels. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s heading into the mid week. Humidity will remain
on the lower side Tuesday, but as flow shift slightly to the
southwest by late Tuesday into Wednesday, some moisture advection is
expected by mid week. The next weather maker will arrive by
Wednesday into Thursday with a cold frontal passage. Models are in
pretty good agreement for rain and possible thunder chances
Wednesday afternoon for the higher terrain and into late Wednesday
for most locations, however, how long showers linger remains in
question. The GFS is the fastest of the model suite clearing the
area of precipitation by Thursday afternoon. The Euro and Canadian
favor a longer system, with more positive tilting to the trough
axis, and precipitation persisting through the day Thursday.
Regardless, pwats look to increase to around an inch, though where
the best forcing sets up will determine how much of the precipitable
water is realized. Temperatures mid to late week will slowly
decrease from the low 80s to the upper 70s, along with a drying
surface with dewpoints sinking back down to the low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...All terminals will see VFR continue at least
for the next 12 hours. Calm and variable winds will continue as high
pressure nudges in from the northwest. Outside of any variable
winds, northerly flow aloft will prevail through the TAF period.
Diurnally driven FEW to SCT fair weather cumulus clouds will blanket
most of the area this afternoon between 7-9kft agl. Some shower and
thunderstorm activity is approaching the St. Lawrence River, but
confidence is high that any associated storms will pass south of MSS
and SLK. However, some northern fringe light showers cannot be ruled
out, mainly at SLK where at PROB30 for 1 hour was used. Clouds are
expected to clear after sunset with some patchy fog possible in the
climatologically favored terminals. Winds likely will decouple at
most sites and have trended favored sites towards prevailing fog
tonight with 3SM BR to start. Highest confidence in prevailing fog
is at SLK/MPV, though clearing skies and calmer winds bodes some
confidence, albeit lower than SLK/MPV, for intermittent, potentially
closer to sunrise, fog at EFK/RUT. Winds will need to be watched
after sunset for any further calming trends that will increase or
decrease fog chances, especially with any light easterly flow for
BTV. Fog will lift between 12-13Z where it develops. Winds will
become prevailing from the north-northwest after sunrise tomorrow
with mostly clear skies.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Sunday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Patchy BR.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig