813
FXUS61 KBTV 041659
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1259 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Intervals of showers and below normal temperatures will prevail
today with greatest potential of some dry weather near the
International Border. Temperatures will only warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s, except mid 60s over the northern Saint Lawrence Valley
today. The unsettled and cool weather pattern continues this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Sunday...Little change needed with latest
update. Light rain is slowly shifting south as high pres and
associated drier air approaches the International Border. The
break in rainfall and some thinning of the clouds, has helped to
pop temps to 63F at OGS and 60 at MSS. Otherwise, have highest
pops/qpf mainly south of Interstate 89 this aftn into this
evening with temps ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Previous discussion...A stationary front is draped across
southern New England into coastal Maine this morning as another
wave continues to bring showers to the forecast area. The
atmospheric moisture gradient will tighten today, continuing to
make it difficult to determine the northward extent of showers.
Currently thinking highest chances for showers this morning will
be central Vermont into the Northeast Kingdom, then best
chances shift to the Adirondacks and southern half of Vermont in
the afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts today are expected
to come to up to 0.20-0.40", highest in these southern and
eastern zones. Meanwhile the St. Lawrence Valley and
international border of New York and western Vermont could miss
out on anything more than a tenth of an inch. Temperatures will
be largely dependent on how far north showers get, but we
continue to hold with the idea of mid 60s in the St. Lawrence
Valley and international border while other, rainier spots see
temps only in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
High pressure will edge in from the north tonight, pressing most
likely precip area into southern Vermont, though slight changes in
the positioning of the high pressure and frontal boundary will make
quite the difference in how far north the showers can reach
overnight. Current forecast is for about 0.01-0.55" of additional
rain from Burlington southward, with highest amounts in
southern Vermont and a bit in southern Essex County, New York.
Lows will be mild for this time of year in the mid 40s to lower
50s due to the widespread cloud cover. We continue to see more
stalling from atmospheric features tomorrow and dry air pushing
in from the north. This will result again in widespread cloudy
weather and highest precipitation chances in southern areas of
the forecast area. Winds will pick up out of the southeast, only
aiding in advecting more moisture into the region. HREF
probabilities of 30-50% chance of over an inch in 24 hours
overflow into southern areas of Rutland and Windsor counties by
tomorrow morning. Northern areas will again have the best chance
to reach into the upper 60s to even the lower 70s due to fewer
showers, with elsewhere only reaching the lower to mid 60s.
Additional rainfall during the day Monday will be about 0.01-
0.15".
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...The persistent upper low spinning across
the Ohio River Valley will begin to finally track northeast Monday
night. The previous day`s decaying convection will arc across the
region overnight, generally avoiding the Northeast Kingdom. There
should be a decrease as rain lifts north, which reverses by mid-
afternoon as convection fires to our south and lifts north. Recent
model trends have been placing this activity somewhat east from
before. From an ingredients perspective, there are some favorable
signals for moderate to heavy precipitation to our south and east,
but only seem marginally conducive for south-central Vermont. It`s
still worth monitoring how the upper low progresses, but it still
seems we may be onlookers to heavier rain to our south and east. NBM
and long range ensembles indicate the most likely (higher than 50%)
values across southern Vermont are at least above an inch for the
next 5 days, and still about 10-20% for up to 2 inches. Before
precipitation arrives, if we have the chance to clear out some,
925hPa temperatures are running around 10-12 C. So with enough
sunshine, 60s to a few 70s are expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...Similar to Monday night into Tuesday, it
appears there should be a lull based on waning diurnal convection.
However, once the upper low approaches our vicinity with a surface
cold front dropping south, rain chances increase again.
Southeasterly flow will then shift to the northwest, and orographic
effects take over. Another sharp upper trough is poised to dig
southeast and may just close off into another upper low Wednesday
night into Thursday. With the associated cold air, some summit level
snow could be in the cards.
Beyond that, a cool weekend is expected. It could even be dry! NBM
probability of precipitation remains around 10-20 percent, which is
below the climo 40%. One aspect to this will be how much clearing we
can get, which will depend on how far east the upper low is on
Friday or Saturday morning. Raw ensemble guidance indicates a 10-30
percent chance of below 36 readings Friday and Saturday morning. So
this is a heads-up to our gardeners to watch the weekend temperature
outlook.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Blocked flow continues in the CPV this
aftn, but drier surface dewpoints and a wind shift to the
east/northeast by this evening should help to improve any
lingering IFR cigs to a mix of MVFR/VFR. Crntly northerly TAF
sites (PBG/MSS/SLK/EFK/BTV) have VFR conditions, while RUT/MPV
have IFR cigs. Based on webcams and sounding data feel IFR at
MPV should become MVFR CIGS in the next 1 to 2 hours. Meanwhile,
northerly blocked flow will continue to produce IFR cigs thru
21z, before winds slowly shift to the east/northeast by sunset
and MVFR cigs develop. In addition, after 03z low level
easterly winds near ridgetop increase at 35 to 40 knots, which
will increase turbulence and shear near RUT overnight into
Monday. Otherwise, northern taf sites should stay VFR thru the
next 12 to 18 hours.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Taber/Storm
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Taber
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