294
FXUS61 KBTV 032300
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
700 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue through Friday, then a weak cold
front will bring some showers to the region as it moves through
Friday night into Saturday morning. Drier and cooler weather is
expected Saturday through Sunday. Another frontal passage will bring
additional showers later Sunday into Monday, along with cooler
and cloudier conditions for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 659 PM EDT Thursday...Very little change needed with this
update as dry weather continues with a veil of high clouds
above. Patchy valley fog continues to look likely in the usual
spots before clouds increase tomorrow morning. Previous
discussion below:

Previous discussion...Dry weather will continue over the next
24 hours as ridging builds just to our south. Outside of patchy
valley fog, mostly clear skies will dominate overnight with just
some high clouds streaming overhead. Clouds will increase on Friday
though, especially in the afternoon to evening hours as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Precipitation should mainly hold off
until after dark, with perhaps a few showers making into the St
Lawrence Valley/Adirondacks early in the evening. Tonight`s lows
will be similar to what we`ve experienced recently, mainly in the
mid 40s to around 50F. Tomorrow`s will be similar to today, maybe a
couple of degrees warmer, topping out in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 254 PM EDT Thursday...No significant changes were made to this
period of the forecast, as we`re still anticipating our next round
of showers to arrive Friday night as a cold front crosses our
region. Precipitation will develop during the evening hours
from the Champlain Valley westward as an upper shortwave trough
aids in forcing with the cold front. These features will then
shift eastward overnight into Saturday morning. While some
showers may linger across eastern VT for a little while after
daybreak, in general expect the bulk of the day Saturday to be
dry since the system will be fairly progressive. This fast
movement will also help to limit potential rainfall totals. The
NAM continues to be the most robust with lift, indicating the
potential for briefly moderate to heavy rain, particularly in
northern areas as the upper trough skirts overhead. Note there
are also some indications of a bit of elevated instability as
temperatures cool behind the front, which may also lead to
locally higher rainfall rates. Still, expect most areas will get
around a tenth of an inch or less, with up to a quarter of an
inch in northern VT.

As mentioned above, Saturday morning may see a few lingering showers
in eastern VT, but expect everyone will have a dry afternoon and
then overnight. Skies may be a bit slower to clear, especially over
the higher terrain and the Northeast Kingdom, but there should be at
least partial sunshine everywhere by evening. Highs will be
seasonable, though cooler than the past few days, with afternoon
temperatures in the 60s. Winds will become a little breezy out of
the northwest behind the cold front, which may make the day feel a
little brisk. The clear and cooler conditions will continue Saturday
night. Lows will mainly be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, but the
Adirondacks and colder spots in the Northeast Kingdom could get down
into the low/mid 30s, with some localized patchy frost possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 254 PM EDT Thursday...A significant pattern change is
anticipated for next week, as a series of s/w`s and cold fronts
sweep acrs the northeast CONUS associated with developing deep
mid/upper lvl trof. This pattern change wl feature much colder
temps, plenty more clouds, and frequent intervals of precip,
especially mtns for early to middle of next week.

First potent s/w and cold front impacts our cwa on Sunday aft/night
with period of showers. Gradient sharpens ahead of boundary, so
anticipate localized gusts 25 to 35 mph in the CPV and trrn
associated with progged 850mb jet of 30 to 40 knots. Temps on Sunday
should warm into the mid/upper 60s with steadier rain arriving aft
00z Monday. Given dynamics/forcing expect a widespread wetting
rainfall on Sunday night into Monday with amounts btwn 0.25 and 0.50
acrs our cwa. Monday is transition day with cooler air arriving
aloft as progged 850mb temps drop to near 0C by 00z near the
International Border. As mid/upper lvl circulation deepens and
becomes closed off at 7h/5h a series of s/w`s and cold frnts wl
track acrs our cwa from Tues thru Thurs of next week. These features
in the northwest flow aloft wl have good dynamics and modest deep
layer moisture to work with, resulting in on and off precip, with
greatest concentration/frequency over the favorable upslope regions
of the northern Dacks and central/northern Green mtns. In addition,
the very warm Great Lakes wl add moisture content to the airmass and
combined with cyclonic flow, expect plenty of clouds under low level
caa.

Its interesting to note that the progged 850mb temps stay at or
below 0C from roughly 06z Tues thru at least 12z Friday, suggesting
summits hover mainly in the 30s/lower 40s daytime and 20s at night,
while values warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Its that time of
year where we experience large temp gradients btwn the valley floors
and mtn summits acrs our cwa, associated with steepening low level
lapse rates. For now, have a mix of snow/rain mostly at night in the
grids for next week, but would not be surprised Mansfield and other
summits experience a light snow accumulation at some point next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...The aviation focus for tonight will be on
fog potential at SLK/MPV. Setup is a bit tricky with modest
southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots thru 06z at 300 to 500 feet
agl, before low levels decouple and become stable. Also, fairly
dry atmosphere this aftn with sfc dwpts falling back into the
mid/upper 40s, which will delay reaching cross over values on
Friday morning. So given these factors, thinking likely (60-70%)
fog with IFR or lower at SLK/MPV btwn 07-12z, with chc (25-30%)
at RUT, as soundings indicate the potential. Otherwise, feel
potential for fog/br at MSS/PBG/BTV and EFK and is less 15%
with VFR conditions prevailing. South/southeast winds at 5 to 10
knots today, become light and trrn driven overnight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Sunday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Storm
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber