103
FXUS61 KBTV 271427
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1027 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Summer-like conditions are expected across the North Country and
Vermont today with an abundance of sunshine and highs well into the
mid to upper 80s. A cold front will bring another round of showers
and isolated thunder tonight into Wednesday, with seasonably cool
and dry conditions following for the end of the work week. Unsettled
weather returns for Friday night through the weekend with several
frontal passages likely.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1013 AM EDT Tuesday...Fog across the region this morning
has been slowly eroding away, with some fog still seen in the
Connecticut River Valley which will dissipate over the next hour
or so. Temperatures across the region are a bit cooler than the
forecast, generally in the 60s to low 70s, so some small adjustments
were made with this update. The forecast remains on track, with
a warm and sunny late August day.
Active weather returns for tonight through mid-day Wednesday as
a strong cold front will track through the region. Latest hi-
res ensemble guidance continues to support a faster arrival and
exit of precipitation, with with the bulk now falling Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning and the front exiting south of the
forecast area by late Wednesday afternoon. Due to the overnight
passage of the front, there`s little surface instability to work
with, but some weak elevated instability could support some
rumbles of thunder, mainly west of the Champlain Valley tonight.
Otherwise, a strong low- level jet of 40-60kts at 925-850mb and
PWATs briefly surging upwards of 2" will support moderate to
isolated heavy rain, with storm totals likely 0.5-1" across
northern zones, and 0.1-0.5" south. Brisk northerly flow behind
the front will additionally keep temperatures on the cool side
for Wednesday with highs only in the low 70s north to mid/upper
70s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 313 AM EDT Tuesday...A faster passage of the cold front was
also included Wednesday night with precipitation chances rapidly
diminishing behind the wave. With stability increasing overnight,
thunderstorms will not be likely as well. Northerly breezes will
begin to taper as the surface pressure gradient relaxes; gusts to 20
mph over Lake Champlain may linger through much of the night
however. Lows will be quick to fall as dry, cooler air advects into
the North Country out of Canada with temperatures ranging in the
mid/upper 40s to low/mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 313 AM EDT Tuesday...Models favor a high amplitude ridge to
move over the eastern United States extending well northward through
the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday and Friday. This will keep
conditions dry with Thursday likely the coolest day temperaturewise
this work week with highs in the low/mid 70s. Guidance keeps the
ridge tracking eastward with southerly flow returning by Friday
allowing for increased warming as temperatures aloft and mixing
increases on the backside of the ridge; highs generally in the
mid/upper 70s. However, consensus has slowed the next trough
trending towards the GFS solution that has been projected over the
last 24 hours. A large amplitude trough will make its way into the
North Country as early as Friday night/early Saturday bringing
another round of showers and potential for thunderstorms. Models are
somewhat split on progression of the upper low in Canada, but
generally show a stalling of the upper level pattern by late
weekend. Conceptually, this would set up southwesterly flow behind
Saturday`s front with warming temperatures for Sunday and potential
for another wave to move through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...LIFR fog at KSLK, KMPV, and KEFK will lift
by 13-14Z with VFR prevailing thereafter through the remainder of
the day with a few fair weather cumulus and increasing mid/high
clouds likely through the afternoon. Mid-clouds lower in the late
evening and after sunset from northwest to southeast in advance of a
cold front which will bring a period of showers to the region during
the overnight hours and lower ceilings and visibility to MVFR after
06Z. Calm winds overnight will trend SW at 4-6kts through the day
with the exceptions being SE at KPBG and stronger southwesterlies at
KMSS with gusts up to 18kts in the afternoon. In addition,
increasing LLWS is likely after 00Z as a strong low level jet of 40-
55kts traverses the region.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Lahiff
|
