FXUS61 KBTV 091912
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
312 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021
Low pressure will pass south of the area tonight into early
Monday with a few showers north and a period of steadier light
rain south. Unsettled, showery conditions continue Monday
afternoon into Tuesday before a trend toward drier weather
occurs by Wednesday, and especially on Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures remain seasonably cool through Tuesday, then trend
milder toward the back half of the work week and into next
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 312 PM EDT Sunday...A nice afternoon has unfolded across
the area with partial sunshine, occasionally interrupted by
periods of broken clouds. A few very light showers and/or
sprinkles remain possible across the northern high terrain
through late afternoon. By tonight low pressure tracking east
from the Ohio Valley region will pass to our south, generally
through the NYC area and into the southern New England offshore
waters. As such, thickening clouds will overspread the area from
south to north this evening and trend cloudy overnight. The
best forcing with this system will largely remain south of our
area however, and I`ve leaned heavily toward hourly blended PoPs
which is capturing current rainfall distribution across the
eastern Ohio Valley/northern Mid-Atlantic region quite well.
This supports the idea of steadier light rains mainly affecting
Rutland/Windsor counties overnight with only a few/scattered
light showers through central counties and little if anything
along the international border. Low temperatures to generally
run in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Any early morning showers to taper off central/south before 900 am
leaving a mainly dry remainder of the morning despite variable
cloudiness. However, steepening boundary layer lapse rates combined
with some evidence of mid-level instability should be enough to
spark a few/scattered showers across the area once again by mid to
late afternoon. Coverage should be scattered however, so not all
areas will see additional rainfall. Highs remain seasonably cool
from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Variable cloudiness then continues Monday night in advance of a more
potent upper trough approaching from the northwest across southern
ON/QE. Still can`t rule out stray shower here or there given
improving upper dynamics, but loss of insolation should allow
overall coverage to wane significantly. Low temperatures a tad
cooler - mid 30s to lower 40s.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Sunday.... The upper low will pass overhead
the North Country on Tuesday bringing a return of rain showers,
especially in the afternoon. At the same, cold air advection
will continue under west/northwest flow, keeping temperatures
cool with daytime highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Winds
will be fairly breezy with sustained wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph
and gusts up to 20 mph. Rain showers will likely linger
overnight into Wednesday morning, becoming terrain driven and
transitioning to snow at or above 2000 ft AGL. Overall, rainfall
will be light with totals less than one quarter of an inch.
Temperatures will be chilly overnight Tuesday and frost is
possible across the Adirondacks and east of the Green Mountains
where low temperatures will be near freezing. Within the Saint
Lawrence and Champlain Valleys low temperatures are expected in
the upper 30s to low 40s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Sunday...A gradual warming trend will begin on
Wednesday as the upper low finally departs eastward, but not before
swinging one last shortwave through the area late Wednesday. This
will result in a chance of light rain Wednesday afternoon/evening,
especially across the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 50s to low 60s. Dry weather
is then expected thereafter as ridging builds in from the west. At
this time, Thursday looks to be the pick of the week with sunny
skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s. As we head into the end of
the week, model guidance offers a wide variety of solutions.
Therefore, have kept with the previous forecast of chance of rain
and partly cloudy skies each day. Temperatures look to remain near
normal during this time with highs in the 60s and overnight lows in
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR through 05Z under light flow less than
10 kts. A few light showers may pop up across mainly elevated
terrain of Adirondacks/southern Greens in the 00-05Z time frame,
but scattered nature of potential coverage only warrants mention
at KSLK at this point. After 05Z scattered showers at
KSLK/KBTV/KMPV possible with a steady light rain likely at KRUT.
Winds remain light though cigs lower to MVFR at KSLK/KRUT and
possibly at KMPV. BKN/OVC VFR expected elsewhere. After 11Z
light rains and/or scattered light showers end as cigs trend
SCT/BKN VFR under light west/southwesterly flow from 4-8 kts.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.