314
FXUS61 KBTV 281427
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1027 AM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
After a quiet day today, a low pressure system will bring a
prolonged period of wintry mixed precipitation through the upcoming
weekend. Widespread snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain are all
expected. Northern areas will have the best chance to see several
inches of snow accumulation, while central and southern locations
could see more than a third of an inch of ice. Conditions will
gradually improve Sunday afternoon, with the wider valleys likely
changing over to plain rain, but freezing rain will linger into the
evening hours east of the Green Mountains and in the far northern St
Lawrence Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1027 AM EDT Friday...Quiet weather before the storm
continues with just some high clouds, seasonably cool and dry air,
and modest northwest to west winds. No substantive changes
made.
Previous discussion...Other than a few lingering flurries
or light snow showers early this morning, today will feature
quiet weather ahead of our impactful storm system for the
weekend. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy through much
of the day, though there could be some sunnier periods before
high clouds start increasing ahead of low pressure later this
afternoon. Highs will range from the mid/upper 30s along the
international border to the upper 40s in the southern Champlain
and lower CT Valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 423 AM EDT Friday...Impactful weather is expected this
weekend as a low pressure system brings widespread snow, sleet,
freezing rain, and rain to the region. Hazardous travel is
likely, and isolated to scattered power outages possible due to
snow and ice accumulations. The Winter Weather Advisory has been
extended in time, and is now in effect from 8 pm tonight to 8
pm Sunday.
A frontal boundary will become nearly stationary over or just to the
south of our forecast area tonight. A series of waves of low
pressure will traverse along it over the weekend, giving us rounds
of wintry mixed precipitation. Much will depend on exactly where
this front sets up and how much it waffles north and south as
surface lows ride along it. Areas north of the front will remain
primarily snow, areas south will see a change over to rain, but in
the vicinity of the front, expect a prolonged period of snow, sleet,
and likely freezing rain.
The concern is that the setup is pretty favorable for heavy
precipitation, ie high liquid precipitation amounts. Moisture will
surge northward around the backside of ridging over the Atlantic,
with PWATs approaching or even exceeding 1 inch by Saturday
afternoon. Moisture transport will be ample, with IVT values still
expected to approach or even exceed 99th percentile values for
late March. This combined with favorable jet dynamics and
frontogenetical forcing will result in rounds of moderate to
even briefly heavy precipitation as the front wavers north and
south directly over our region. The first round of precipitation
moves in tonight into Saturday. With the frontal boundary in
place, warm air will ride up over cooler air at the surface,
hence while precipitation will generally start out as snow, it
will quickly transition over to a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain from southwest to northeast as we head into
Saturday, with northern VT the most likely to hold onto pure
snow through the daylight hours. The precipitation could be
heavy at times, particularly late tonight and early Saturday
morning. Temperatures in far southern locations will warm enough
to allow precipitation to change over to plain rain for a while
during the afternoon. However, as this first wave of low
pressure moves by Saturday afternoon, the front looks to meander
back southward for a brief time Saturday night, turning any
rain back over to a wintry mix. The front will then surge back
north on Sunday as a stronger wave of low pressure moves into
the Great Lakes. Another round of steadier precipitation will
spread into the area on Sunday while temperatures warm above
freezing from north to south, changing freezing rain over to
plain rain. However, the cold air will be tougher to scour out
in some of the climatologically favored areas, including the
far northern St Lawrence Valley and the sheltered valleys east
of the Greens. These areas could pick up a not insignificant
amount of freezing rain Sunday afternoon as temperatures will be
slow to warm. Have therefore extended the Winter Weather
Advisory to 8 pm Sunday, though many locations could likely see
the Advisory cancelled well before that time.
As far as exact amounts...it`s still hard to say with any real
certainty since snow and rain will be split by a narrow band of
freezing rain and/or sleet along the frontal boundary/transition
zone. Unfortunately, models are still having a hard time agreeing on
exactly where the heaviest axis of precipitation will set up, but
overall consensus keeps the bulk of the snow along and north of a
line from roughly the northern St Lawrence Valley east-southeastward
into central VT, with a few to perhaps several inches of snow
possible, along with up to a quarter of an inch of ice. Meanwhile,
areas south of this line would have the best chances of seeing more
significant icing, generally a quarter to a third of an inch, though
wouldn`t be surprised if some locations see closer to a half inch by
the time is all said and done. Snow/sleet amounts in these locations
would be just an inch or two, perhaps around 3 inches, at worst. All
that being said though, just a 50 mile shift north or south of the
front`s position would have big implications on these amounts, so
please don`t focus on exact amounts at this time. Regardless of
whether any one location receives more snow or more ice, anyone with
plans this weekend should expect hazardous travel. Isolated to
scattered power outages will be possible as well. Please stay tuned
to later forecast updates as we progress through the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 423 AM EDT Friday...Widespread precipitation will continue
heading into the beginning of next week, with precipitation type
transitioning to rain as we shift into the warm sector. Some
locations, especially east of the Green Mountains, may hold onto
colder air at the surface longer, which will prolong the duration of
freezing rain and lead to additional ice accretion. Temperatures
will warm significantly on Monday, with temperatures climbing into
the 50s and 60s. Rain will continue throughout the day Monday, with
a cold front pushing through Monday night which will bring
precipitation to an end.
Behind this cold front, temperatures will trend seasonably cool as
high pressure builds in mid-week. Daytime highs will generally be in
the upper 30s and 40s with overnight lows generally in the 20s and
low 30s. Another system looks to arrive late this week, bringing
additional chances for widespread rain and snow showers, but there is
still a lot of model uncertainty given the time frame.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
for the first half of the forecast period. Northwesterly winds
this morning will trend lighter towards this afternoon,
generally less than 10 knots, although some gusts up to 25 knots
will be possible over the next few hours. After 00Z, conditions
will begin to deteriorate as a long duration event brings snow
and wintry precipitation to the region. Precipitation will begin
as snow for most locations, with MVFR and IFR conditions
expected, with a transition to a wintry mix at the end or
outside of the forecast period.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SN,
Definite PL, Definite RA, Definite FZRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
FZRA, Likely RA, Chance PL.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite FZRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Heavy precipitation on Saturday could approach or exceed daily
records, as indicated below.
Date KBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK
03-29 0.82|1888 0.71|1954 0.67|2020 0.84|2020 0.71|2020 0.62|1932
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Sunday for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Sunday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
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