487
FXUS61 KBTV 102257
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
557 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will quickly increase this evening with light snow
arriving by Saturday morning. A dusting to 3 inches of new
snowfall is anticipated by Saturday afternoon with comfortable
temperatures and light winds. A dry and quiet Sunday is on tap
with temperatures warming into the mid 20s to lower 30s. The
next chance for snow showers arrives Monday into Tuesday
associated with a fast moving clipper like system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 555 PM EST Friday...The weather is relatively quiet
tonight and the forecast is on track as high clouds spread from
southwest to northeast. One minor change with this update was to
tweak hourly temperatures and dew points slightly lower as clear
skies allow these variables to plummet quickly. Over the next
few hours though, the incoming clouds will limit radiational
cooling and we are still on track to hit the single digits to
upper teens for lows later tonight.

Previous discussion...Upper air analysis and GOES-16 mid- lvl
water vapor imagery indicates mid/upper lvl ridge is directly
over the CPV, while deep area of subsidence is shifting into
eastern VT. This dry air aloft has finally eroded the llvl cloud
layer acrs most of our cwa, but mid/upper lvl moisture is
already advecting into our western cwa ahead of our next system.
Given some clear skies, light winds, and fresh snow cover,
expect temps to drop quickly this evening, especially
central/eastern VT, before increasing again aft midnight with
advancing clouds. Lows generally single digits NEK to mid/upper
teens CPV. Soundings indicate deep dry layer initially from sfc
thru 500mb, which wl result in some virga developing before
column becomes saturated. Snow ratios are a little tricky as
soundings indicate good moisture in relation to cloud ice, but
uvv`s/forcing is minimal with very light wind profiles. Crnt
thinking there wl be a 1 to 3 hr window when forcing/moisture is
the best that wl result in better ratios in the 20/25 to 1
range, but either side wl be more in the 12/15 to 1 range. Given
the quick movement, limited forcing and quickly decreasing deep
layer moisture profiles after 21z, should keep snowfall amounts
in the 1 to 3 inch range. Highs on Sat mainly in the 20s with
light and variable winds.

Water vapor imagery shows developing area of subsidence over
the northern Plains, which is progged to be acrs our cwa on Sat
night, so expect lowering cigs with areas of mist/haze possible.
Always difficult to determine areal coverage of low clouds, but
have continued with mostly cloudy skies and kept temps toward
the NBM 75- 90th percentile. However, if clouds thin more than
anticipated, especially SLV, temps wl be much lower. Lows in the
mid/upper teens most areas with light winds north/northwest
winds 3 to 6 knots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 257 PM EST Friday...Sunday and Sunday night will feature
quieter weather with temperatures close to seasonal normals.
After seeing some sunshine again on Sunday morning, clouds will
move back into the region overnight ahead of next approaching
system. Surface high pressure will ridge into the area, and pass
to our south making way for low over the Great Lakes. Maximum
temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s,
should be a pleasant day. Minimum temperatures overnight will
be in the teens areawide. Will have a chance for some light snow
showers overnight ahead of approaching system with some warm
air advection picking up across that part of our area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 257 PM EST Friday...Monday we will have a low pressure
system track eastward from the Great Lakes and cross well north
of our area Monday night. Chance for precipitation will increase
from west to east Monday into Monday night. Should be a pretty
sharp front as it crosses our area Monday night, so will need to
monitor potential for possible squalls. A potent upper level
shortwave trough will also cross our area on Tuesday, and flow
will become westerly across our area. Could see some lake effect
snow showers off Lake Ontario, and flow may be strong enough
for these showers to reach into Vermont as well, mainly Monday
night into Tuesday. Next frontal system and shortwave trough
will cross our area on Thursday bringing additional chances for
some showers. Currently looks like we`ll close out next week
with some drier weather as surface and upper level ridging build
over our area. No significant systems in the forecast at this
time, but several chances for some light precipitation.
Temperatures will warm back towards seasonal normals, with
Monday being the warmest day and some locations will surpass the
freezing mark.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Conditions will continue to improve towards VFR at all TAF
sites, with the exception of KRUT. Lingering clouds between
2500-3000 ft agl will keep conditions at KRUT MVFR until 1930z.
Clear skies will persist through the afternoon and overnight
with prevailing P6SM visibilities. Winds will become mainly
light and variable under these clear skies. While confidence is
currently low, some low clouds and haze could form at KMPV
resulting in possible IFR conditions under a surface inversion
at 00Z. If this inversion were to form, these low clouds would
gradually lift back towards VFR by 05Z. Cloud ceilings will
gradually lower to MVFR from west to east across the area ahead
of some light snow. Ceilings will lower beginning at 07Z, by 08Z
at KSLK/KRUT/KBTV/KPBG/KMPV, and by 10z at KEFK. As the snow
becomes more widespread at 11Z, visibilities will trend towards
IFR conditions with lowering ceilings to 1500-2500 ft agl.
Persisting snow and IFR conditions will continue through 16Z.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber/Storm
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Danzig