378
FXUS61 KBTV 210230
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1030 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Much colder and drier air has arrived with breezy, northwest
winds, and skies will become mainly clear by afternoon.
Seasonably cold and dry conditions will continue through midday
Monday, then another round of showers will move through Monday
night. Pleasant weather midweek will be followed by yet another
system possibly providing periods of showers late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1028 PM EDT Sunday...Fcst remains on track with SLK
already down to 28F, while BTV is at 44F as of 10 PM. High
clouds continue to advect from west to east acrs our cwa this
evening, but given the very dry sfc dwpts in the mid teens to
lower 20s and light winds, temps should have no problems
reaching their expected values by morning.
Previous discussion below:
Abundant dry air has settled across the region with a breezy,
sunny Sunday across Vermont and northern New York. The low-level
jet responsible for earlier gusts is pulling away, but a few
sporadic higher gusts occasionally continue to crop up, like the
35 knots at Montpelier. Surface high pressure at 1030mb sets up
overnight. Very efficient radiational cooling will begin as
soon as the sun sets and winds trend calm. A couple hours before
sunrise, patchy high clouds will begin translate eastwards and
may provide a floor to the cooling possible. The Adirondack
Airport at Saranac Lake is now forecast to fall to 19 based on
MOS guidance, and the whole forecast area is likely to fall
below freezing using the NBM 10th percentile and a blend of MOS.
Abundant dry air will remain entrenched Monday. Patchy high clouds
will continue to make their way east and there could even be some
virga evident Monday morning. Dewpoints in the 20s to teens and
temperatures rising just above seasonal norms in the up 50s to lower
60s will result in dry relative humidity values of 20 to 30 percent,
locally into the teens. Outside to afternoon breezes, there`s not
much flow out there, increasing mid to high clouds by mid-afternoon,
and recent rainfall (outside south-central Vermont) will likely
prevent fire weather concerns. Late evening into Monday night, a
warm front will advance northwards. There is modest forcing
associated with it, but erosion of low-level dry air will take time.
It could take until an occluded front just before dawn that we see
precipitation begin reaching the ground. There is some elevated
instability, but not anything on the scale of what was experienced
yesterday. Generally a tenth to quarter is expected along the
international border, and a tenth or less across central Vermont and
southeastern portions of the Dacks.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 256 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday is shaping up to be rather
uneventful as precipitation quickly tapers off during the pre-dawn
hours. We will see some gusty winds develop across the region,
especially during the afternoon hours, as we see steepening low
level lapse rates develop as cold air advection takes place in the
925 mb and 850 mb levels. Given the lack of surface based gradient,
it appears wind gusts will generally max out in the 25 to 35 mph
range with decreasing gusts Tuesday evening as the surface and
boundary layer decouple. Some weak cold advection will creep into
the surface layer Tuesday night as we begin to clear but overnight
lows will hover right around seasonal normals (30s in the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom and in the upper 30s to lower 40s
elsewhere).
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 256 PM EDT Sunday...A continued period of dry weather is
expected on Wednesday and Thursday as deep layer ridging moves
overhead. The is a little uncertainty to how far north the upper
level ridge will extend and how any weak shortwave disturbances may
push across the Northeast. The only sensible weather impact to this
discrepancy would be the amount of cloud cover on Wednesday and
Thursday as we could see mostly sunny skies with a stronger upper
level ridge or partly to mostly sunny skies under a weaker ridge.
Nevertheless, we will see a period of above normal temperatures
Wednesday continuing into Friday. We expect the upper level ridge to
begin shifting eastward Friday evening with a warm front likely to
bring rainfall to the region sometime Friday night into Saturday
followed by a cold front 12-24 hours later. While the exact timing
will change with each model run being nearly a week out, the
ensemble guidance continues to suggest a 30-60% chance of greater
than a half of an inch of rainfall this upcoming weekend as a result
of these two frontal systems. It appears the streak of non-dry
weekends will continue for another week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the
next 24 hours. Winds will quickly go light and terrain driven this
evening. During the day tomorrow, winds will become southerly and
gradually increase during the day. The exception is MSS where winds
will go northeasterly. Gusts between 10-20 KTs are possible tomorrow
afternoon at every terminal. A few rain showers may reach SLK and
MSS tomorrow evening but they are not expected to be heavy enough to
significantly lower visibilities.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Taber
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Myskowski
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