916
FXUS61 KBTV 120742
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
342 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control of our weather through the next
several days, bringing above normal temperatures and plenty of
sunshine.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure continues to be the
dominate weather feature across the Northeast, bringing pleasant
weather and above normal temperatures to the region. A weak
shortwave trough passing by this morning will push eastward through
the afternoon with very little moisture or lift to work with, so
only some increased cloud cover and possible virga are expected,
especially near the international border. Temperatures this
afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs
climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon. Another
night of radiational fog development can be expected tonight,
with light winds and clearing skies. Overnight lows will be a
few degrees warmer due to southerly flow, with temperatures
generally in the 50s.
Another weak disturbance will pass through Friday, will little
to no available moisture. There is a little more instability
associated with this feature, which might be enough for a spot
shower or two across eastern Vermont, although there is a
significant amount of mid-level dry air which will limit any
possible precipitation. Temperatures during the day Friday will
climb into the upper 70s and low 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Thursday...Synoptically quiescent conditions with
very light winds - generally 5 mph or less - expected through the
short-term forecast period with a deep-layer ridge anchored across
the North Country. Some radiational fog is possible in the favored
valley locations during the early morning hours on Saturday.
Otherwise, should see plenty of sunshine on Saturday with light N-NE
winds. With 850mb temperatures of +13C to +14C, afternoon highs
should reach the lower 80s in valley locations. Temperatures will
generally fall back into the 50s Saturday night with patchy
nocturnal fog in central/eastern VT and locally within the northern
Adirondack region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Thursday...The 00Z global ensemble guidance
continues to show mid-upper level ridging across our region and
positive 500mb height anomalies through the middle of next week.
Maintained the dry forecast with temperatures generally several
degrees above normal for mid- September. Valley highs will generally
reach the 80-85F range Sunday thru Tuesday, then upper 70s to lower
80s for next Wednesday (9/18). It does appear that boundary layer
moisture will increase slightly through the period, so should see
lows mostly in the mid-upper 50s, with low 60s locally in the
Champlain Valley.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Mostly VFR conditions throughout the day,
with the exception of some mist and fog forming across the
region. This fog will lead to some localized IFR conditions at
KSLK and KMPV through about 12Z, with some MVFR visibilities
possible at KMSS and KPBG as well. Light winds overnight will
become south to southwest less than 10 knots during the
afternoon, before coming light and terrain driven towards 00Z.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Kremer
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