000
FXUS61 KBTV 201754
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
154 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will produce some clouds today, along with a
spot snow shower or sprinkle with temperatures warming into the
upper 30s to mid 40s. A brisk south to southwest wind of 10 to
20 mph will develop with localized higher gusts possible.
Another weak disturbance will produce better chances for valley
rain and mountain snow showers on Tuesday with seasonable
temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 154 PM EDT Monday...Forecast remains in good shape this
afternoon, with main adjustment to dew points/RH as we are
seeing the annual model wet bias of surface humidity on breezy
early spring days. Skies have as anticipated trended sunny from
south to north, with cloud cover likely to hang tough in
northernmost higher terrain in Vermont and much of northern New
York aside from Essex County, through the remainder of the day.

Previous discussion follows:
Water vapor and upper air analysis indicates weakening
mid/upper lvl trof acrs the eastern CONUS with developing fast
west to east flow aloft. Surface analysis places weak sfc warm
frnt over northern NY this morning, which wl lift north of our
cwa by this aftn, along with better 850 to 500mb moisture and
850 to 700mb lift from advection. Have minor pops acrs the NEK
early this morning, but given very dry sfc dwpts, limited precip
is actually reaching the ground per obs. Temps under modest
llvl waa should reach the upper 30s to mid 40s this aftn,
supported by progged 925mb temps in the -2C to 0C range, while
850mb temps hold near -6C. Have utilized the mtn max temp tool
to place cooler temps at the summits with values in the upper
20s to lower 30s, its that time of year for sharp valley to
summit temp gradients and steeper low level lapse rates.
Speaking of mixing, soundings show good mixing thru 850mb this
aftn, so given wind profiles a few gusts in the aligned s/sw to
n/ne valleys wl see gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. Monday
night is relative quiet with temps cooling back into the 20s,
except near 30F locally here in the CPV due to southerly flow.

On Tues, additional 850 to 500mb moisture advects along the
international border as a weak sfc cold frnt tries to sink
south. The moisture/dynamics with this scenario is relatively
modest, given the lack of advection and limited moisture
profiles. Have mention high chc/low likely in the northern Dacks
to central/northern Greens with schc/chc in the valleys and
very minimal pops acrs southern VT zns. Thermal profiles support
mostly rain in the valleys with snow levels starting around
1000 feet, but lifting to 2500-3000 feet during the aftn hours
as progged 925mb temps warm to near 0C. Any qpf wl be light and
generally confined to the trrn with snowfall accumulations of an
inch or two possible. Temps once again wl display a sharp
elevation dependent gradient from upper 20s to mid 30s summits
to upper 30s to mid 40s valleys on Tues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 359 AM EDT Monday...Showers will be winding down Tuesday
night, and conditions will then remain dry through Wednesday as
surface and upper level ridging build into our area.
Temperatures will be very close to seasonal normals with lows in
the 20s to lower 30s, and highs ranging through the 40s. Will
have increasing clouds and chance for showers from the west late
in the day Wednesday as a low pressure system lifts from the
Great Lakes region northeastward. Flow will become southerly on
Wednesday with warm air advection ahead of this system.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 359 AM EDT Monday...Increasing chances for showers on
Wednesday night as aforementioned low passes north of our region
and frontal system crosses our area. Precipitation will mainly
be rain showers Wednesday night as low temperatures hover in the
30s, some snow showers in the higher elevations where the
temperatures will be colder. There will be a brief break in
precipitation early Thursday morning, and then next system
approaches the area later Thursday afternoon brining additional
precipitation chances to the area as another low pressure system
passes to our north. High temperatures on Thursday will be
quite mild, generally ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s,
therefore mainly rain showers anticipated with this frontal
system. Models continue to indicate potential for a low pressure
system to track along the New England coast on Saturday, but
still lots of disagreement with the track of this low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18z Tuesday...VFR conditions, except for possible
continued MVFR cigs at SLK through 21Z, persist through most of
the period. Increasing clouds associated with scattered showers
lower ceilings late in the period behind a weak cold front with
MSS/SLK most likely to have persistent MVFR cigs. The showers,
mainly in the form of snow, are most likely to impact the MSS
terminal where 2sm visibility is indicated between 09Z and 14Z,
but at times could cause brief IFR visibility at EFK/SLK/BTV,
primarily 13Z onward.

South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots
will subside around sunset. Localized wind shear is possible
near Rutland with areas of turbulence likely near trrn features
today due to the moderately strong low level jet of 30 to 40
knots around 2500 ft agl. While speeds will pick up after
sunrise, they will be less gusty than today and under 20 knots. The
aforementioned frontal boundary should induce a sharp wind
shift to north/northwest towards the end of the TAF period at
PBG and just afterwards at BTV.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Kutikoff/Taber