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  Thursday June 20, 2024

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion



262
FXUS61 KBTV 151721
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
121 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A gorgeous weekend is in store with high temperatures in the 60s and
70s and low humidity. This will be short-lived as a long-duration
heat event moves in next week. Combined with high humidity, it
will cause heat indexes to approach 100 degrees. Warm overnight
lows will prevent any nighttime relief so heat related impacts
will occur.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 121 PM EDT Saturday...Fair weather cumulus developed a
little more in earnest than previously thought, but as progged
by guidance the northern edge is beginning to decay as mid-
level moisture continues to evaporate. As such, we should see
these clouds gradually shift south and dissipate through the
afternoon leading to clear skies this evening. Temps are running
on track to top out in the low/mid 60s north to low 70s south.

For tonight into tomorrow, strong radiational cooling will drive
temperatures into the 40s. Parts of the Northeast Kingdom and
Adirondacks are likely to fall down into the 30s. Saranac Lake is
forecast to reach 33 at present, coming close to a daily record of
32 early Sunday morning. Some patchy frost has been applied, mostly
in the northern Adirondacks. Sunday should be very pleasant with dry
weather and light winds. High temperatures will generally be in the
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...Dry conditions continue through Sunday
night with heights aloft and cloud cover increasing. A weak trough
will be approaching the North Country, but low level high pressure
will be building northward at the same time. The result will be much
warmer overnight temperatures with lows in the upper 50s to around
60 degrees for most spots. As the trough passes north in Canada
Monday, a few showers will be possible, but 1000-500mb thickness
will also be increasing. While we can`t rule a very rare rumble of
thunder in the early afternoon, the most notable conditions Monday
will be surging high temperatures from around 80 degrees into the
mid 80s. Warming temperatures aloft will likely cap convection late
in the afternoon/evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...Models continue to favor an anomalously
strong ridge to build over the region Tuesday through Thursday with
high temperatures above 90 degrees. If the ECMWF has its way,
temperatures could eclipse 100 degrees Wednesday. However, the
consensus is marginally "cooler" in the mid/upper 90s. Coupled with
dew points in the mid/upper 60s to almost 70 degrees, and WBGT will
climb and conditions will "feel" around 100 degrees. This is notable
for the region with Heat Risk in the Major/Extreme categories for
most locations. Plan on dangerous heat next week. Some ways to
mitigate these hazardous conditions include limiting outdoor
activities, knowing where your local cooling centers will be -
especially if you have no AC at home - and staying hydrated.
Overnight temperatures will not provide much relief for most
locations with lows ranging in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
Given the heat and higher dew points, showers and a few
thunderstorms may occur. Relief from 90+ temperatures may come by
the weekend, but temperatures will still be running warmer than
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will generally prevail
through the period with VCFG possible at KMSS from 06-11Z.
Otherwise, fair weather cumulus across the area this afternoon
around 5000 feet will dissipate through the afternoon with skies
SKC through midnight, before high clouds begin to filter in from
the west, becoming SCT-BKN after 12Z Sunday. Gusty NNW winds up
to 25kts this afternoon rapidly abate towards 00Z to calm
overnight, and variable less than 5kts Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the
middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat
of being broken.

Record High Temperatures:

June 18:
KBTV: 97/1994 Forecast 96
KMPV: 93/1994 Forecast 92
KPBG: 94/1994 Forecast 93
KMSS: 97/1994 Forecast 94
KSLK: 94/1907 Forecast 92

June 19:
KBTV: 100/1995 Forecast 97
KMPV: 95/1995 Forecast 94
KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 93
KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 94
KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 92

June 20:
KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 96
KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 93
KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 92
KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 91
KSLK: 92/1995 Forecast 90

Record Low Temperatures:

June 16:
KSLK: 32/2020 Forecast 33


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 19:
KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 69

June 20:
KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 70
KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 64

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Haynes
CLIMATE...Team BTV



 
 
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