478
FXUS61 KBTV 112344
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
644 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A wintry weather pattern will continue through the week with
light snow accumulations and terrain-driven heavier showers at
times. Moderation in temperatures will support some lower
elevation rain, but mostly snow can be expected. Precipitation
chances will dwindle late in the week before a more widespread, mixed
precipitation type event arrives on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EST Tuesday...It has been a snowy day across most
of northern New York and Vermont as a large, negatively-tilted
trough with anomalous cold (below the 10th percentile at the mid
and low levels of the atmosphere) crosses the area. Satellite
imagery shows spokes of deeper moisture filling in southward
from southern Quebec, which will persist through this evening
until the trough axis shifts far enough to the east to likewise
shut off the snow machine. The trend towards more snow showers,
and steadier mountain snow, through the evening hours across
central and eastern Vermont, and less across northern New York
and the Champlain Valley, is on track. This pattern will be tied
to increasing 850-925 millibar winds and precipitation making
it over the mountain summits with increasing Froude numbers. The
strongly meridional upper air pattern seems to be competing
against the cross- barrier low level flow, but this evening
northwest flow of roughly 290 degrees should support the more
typical terrain-driven heavier snowfall.
Through midnight we`re looking at 1 to 2 inches of fresh snow
in much of northern Vermont aside from southeastern areas,
except 2 to 4 inches near the Green Mountain spine and mid-slope
areas of the Northeast Kingdom. Have continued areas of blowing
snow for a broad area of northern New York and Vermont, with
greatest risk for travelers in mountain passes. Sustained winds
and gusts look marginally supportive of blowing of falling snow,
but likely not sufficient for any drifting snow. Strongest
gusts will peak this evening. Highest values in the 30 to 35 MPH
range is expected in much of Clinton and Essex counties in New
York, and near northern Lake Champlain/Grand Isle County.
Tonight, mainly after midnight, attention turns to a robust lake
response to the next shortwave trough currently digging
southeastward over southern Ontario. The associated mid-level
trough axis will move into the eastern Great Lakes region with a
Lake Erie to Lake Ontario connection in a lake-parallel band.
This scenario is conducive to heavy snowfall rates. Thankfully,
timing of this heavy snow for St. Lawrence County looks well
before the morning commute, but expected localized inch per hour
snowfall with a few inches quickly accumulating before winding
down as the band pivots towards the northwest with time, into
southeastern Ontario.
Towards daybreak, snow showers should blossom farther east in
the Adirondacks and northern Vermont in response to the incoming
trough. Temperatures have trended a touch lower to support less
of a rain mix even in the lower elevations, but a wet snow with
temperatures above freezing will take pretty heavy snowfall
rates to accumulate during the daytime hours. Think the bulk of
the steadier, occasionally moderate snowfall rates of 0.5"/hour,
will be primarily in the Adirondacks tomorrow and otherwise
confined to areas near the mountains in Vermont compared to
today. Tomorrow night additional snowfall may be enhanced by
favorable upslope as the trough axis shifts once again to our
east with blocked westerly flow and quite saturated low level
air. For now we have most accumulations in the mountains but
western slopes, and even into the valleys, will need to watch
for a period of snow showers late tomorrow night which could
impact the Thursday morning commute.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EST Tuesday...Yet another active day is expected.
There will be more winter weather conditions at a sub-advisory
level as we remain in cyclonic flow amidst a sufficiently cold
air mass for mainly snow. The next shortwave trough to approach
from the Great Lakes will cross the region during the day, hence
high (60-100%) PoPs for northern New York and Vermont. As in
recent days, a lot of westerly low level flow will limit
precipitation east of the central/southern Green Mountains and
the western Champlain Valley, but elsewhere numerous snow
showers can be expected. Have continued to trend temperatures a
little lower than the NBM, which is contaminated by bias-
correction from a milder weather pattern over the previous
couple of months. Raw model guidance suggest temperatures should
remain marginally cool enough to support mainly snow as the
precipitation again even at the lower elevations, with perhaps
localized exceptions. Highest chances for snow showers will tend
to be in the morning, although persistent moisture and lift
will keep some snow in the forecast through Thursday night.
Probabilities of at least 1" of new snowfall during this period
are strongly terrain-driven, with current indications evolving
from blocked to critical flow during the period; along with
ample low level moisture, upslope snow is guaranteed through
Thursday evening before some top-down drying occurs.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM EST Tuesday...Unsettled weather is expected to continue
as we head through the weekend into the beginning of next week.
Lingering upslope showers will continue on Friday, bringing some
additional snowfall accumulations to the more favored locations.
Temperatures on Friday will continue to be on the cool side, with
highs only climbing into the 30s to low 40s areawide. Showers will
continue to taper off heading into Saturday, where a brief period of
drier, although chilly, weather can be expected for much of the day
before the next system approaches the region.
The main focus of this time period will be a complex low moving
across the Great Lakes into the region late Saturday into the day
Sunday. Guidance continues to support the idea of some wintry mix
and some freezing rain potential as the warm front lifts across the
region, especially across eastern Vermont where colder air is more
apt to remain at the surface. Precipitation will largely fall as
rain across much of the region by Sunday afternoon, with the
exception of some of the higher terrain, although we may quickly
transition back over to snowfall as the low exits with showers
lingering through Monday and possibly into Tuesday. As with any
mixed precipitation event, there is still some uncertainty at this
point in regards to the exact timing and precipitation type for any
location, but guidance has been consistent enough to include some of
the wintry mix wording in the forecast this afternoon. Be sure to
monitor the forecast as we get closer, especially if you may be on
the road. Temperatures will continue to on the cool side during this
period, with daytime highs generally in the 30s and low 40s and
overnight lows generally in the 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Generally MVFR-VFR conditons due to CIGS
with some still remaining -SHSN at near mountain airports. A
brief period of drier conditions is expected with improving
conditions before additional showers and MVFR conditions return
towards 12Z. West winds 10-20 kts will diminish to 5-10 kts and
shift to SW-S by 12z Wed.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA,
Definite SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Chance FZRA.
Sunday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely RA, Likely
FZRA, Likely SN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer/SLW
|
