523
FXUS61 KBTV 201102
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
702 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

No significant changes were made to the forecast. Breezes remain
today as a cold front moves through the region bringing sharply
cooler conditions for the end of the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. Temperatures trend lower today but remain 5 to 10 degrees
above seasonal averages for many locations before trending sharply
cooler for Thursday. Some locations outside the Champlain Valley may
experience some frost Thursday night.

2. Breezy winds continue today and tonight as a front sweeps
through the region bringing some chances of showers as well.

3. Chances for showers continue at times early next week while
temperatures trend a bit warmer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1:  Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than
yesterday, but remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Warmest
spots will be in southern Vermont where there will be potential for
more heating ahead of the boundary. Highs in the 70s are forecast
with low 80s for southern Vermont locations. Northwest flow will
dominate behind the front bringing sharply cooler temperatures for
Thursday and Friday with highs likely in the mid/upper 50s to around
60 degrees , then 60s respectively. This will be around 10 degrees
below seasonal averages on Thursday before trending back to near
normal by Friday. Temperatures continue to moderate over the weekend
back to around seasonal averages with highs near 70 degrees for the
Champlain Valley. Thursday night, high pressure is favored to be
overhead with temperatures likely falling below 40 degrees in the
Adirondacks and across northeastern Vermont. With a very dry airmass
over the region, frost potential will rise.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Winds will be breezy today with flow turning northwest
behind a cold front. Gusts will likely range 20 to 25 mph for most
locations with up to 30 mph for typically windier locations like the
Hwy 11 corridor in northern New York and along Lake Champlain. A
Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the broad portion of Lake
Champlain. Gusts will likely linger over Lake Champlain tonight
before decreasing Thursday with high pressure moving overhead.
Showers chances will continue this morning and remain possible along
the front as it swings through today, but amounts will generally be
light and less than 0.1".

KEY MESSAGE 3: There remains some notable spread in potential for
showers both on Sunday and Monday. Generally the 00Z guidance has
shifted chances for rain slightly, such that Sunday is more likely
to be dry and Monday more likely to be showery as an upper level
ridge departs and a weak low pressure area slides across our region.
The potential for rain on Sunday is higher early in the day, tied to
a band of mid-level frontogenesis lifting northeastward across our
region. Therefore, midday onward conditions should trend dry. That
being said, it remains very possible that precipitation is spotty or
non-existant given the potential that the ridge of high pressure in
place causes precipitation to be mainly virga. It also appears rain
on Monday (Memorial Day) is favored for the morning, although again
the model spread is high enough to expect this forecast to change.
Therefore, keep abreast of the forecast if you have holiday plans;
it will probably not be an all day rain with a progressive westerly
upper level pattern and lack of a stationary boundary. All in all,
while rain could impact outdoor activities somewhat, thunder chances
are minimal through this period. Precipitation will probably not be
hydrologically significant with rainfall amounts mainly ranging from
about 0.1" (reasonable low amount) to 1" (reasonable high amount)
before we move back into a drier pattern. With chances for showers
decreasing moving into Tuesday, temperatures will tend to rise above
normal, currently forecast to reach the low to mid 70s following a
couple of days with highs mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions prevail this morning
except for temporary MVFR ceilings at MSS and MVFR ceilings
prevailing at SLK for another few hours before improving. Very
spotty showers are expected this morning, especially in Vermont;
have maintained prob 30 at RUT and EFK where chances for a
shower are relatively high. A diffuse cold front is moving
through uneventfully through 15Z, with southwesterly winds
expected to turn westerly and then northwesterly through the
remainder of the day with gusts of about 20 to 25 knots. Winds
will then shift northerly towards 00Z, and gusts should continue
at sites like BTV and MPV through the remainder of the period
with continued cold air advection.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Broad Waters of
Lake Champlain. Gradient winds are expected to come up after
sunrise bringing more consistent northwesterly gusts around
25kts over the broad waters. As a result, have opted to keep the
Lake Wind Advisory going despite the respite in wind gusts.
Tonight, flow turns more northerly and aligns with the major
axis of Lake Champlain favoring increased gusts up to 30kts and
waves building towards the southern shores. Much lighter winds
are expected Thursday with high pressure building over the
region.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
MARINE...Boyd