626
FXUS61 KBTV 312339
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
739 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 732 PM EDT Sunday...

Showers and thunderstorms are shifting southeastwards. We`ve
received numerous small hail reports, and a few localized wind
gusts of 35-50 mph have taken place near the town of Saranac and
over Diamond Island. Activity will wind down with the loss of
daytime heating. Tweaked PoPs and sky cover based on the latest
trends.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 223 PM EDT Sunday...

1. Showers will continue through this afternoon and evening,
with drier conditions expected heading into the week ahead.

2. Drier weather along with a warming trend is expected for the
latter half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 223 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A shortwave pushing through the region will continue to
bring additional showers this afternoon and evening. With cold air
aloft and diurnal heating, a few rumbles of thunder will be possible
this afternoon as well as the potential for some pea-sized hail
within any stronger showers. Precipitation amounts throughout the
day are expected to remain fairly light, with a few tenths of an
inch possible for most locations. Overnight lows will be on the cool
side once again, with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to
near 50. With warmer temperatures and lingering clouds, frost is not
expected overnight. Additional isolated shower chances will be
possible throughout the day Monday, driven by steep lapse rates and
diurnal heating. The overall coverage is expected to be fairly
limited during the day tomorrow, with very little rainfall
accumulation expected. Temperatures during the day tomorrow will be
more seasonable in comparison to the last few days, with high
temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. Another cool night will be
possible Monday night, which may lead to some additional frost
concerns, especially in the Adirondacks and the Northeast
Kingdom. Conditions are expected to trend drier and more
seasonable as the week progresses as ridging slowly begins to
build into the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure builds across the Northeast CONUS on
Wednesday and lingers through at least Friday morning. The result
will be a few dry days and warming temperatures. A coastal low
pressure system will develop off the Carolina coast and lift
northeastward through this period as well, but the ridge will keep
it shunted well to our south and east. Temperatures will warm into
the mid 70s to mid 80s by Thursday, continuing into Friday. There
are some indications that the wider valleys, including the Champlain
and lower CT Valleys, could see highs rise into the upper 80s, but
don`t anticipate any 90F readings at this time. Luckily, dewpoints
look to remain fairly comfortable, in the 40s and low/mid 50s.
Shower/thunderstorm chances increase late Friday with a potential
cold frontal passage. Timing of this boundary and how quickly it and
its associated precipitation push south of our region is still
uncertain. Right now, Friday night and Saturday morning look the
most likely timeframe for precipitation, but some guidance indicates
showers could linger into Sunday. Have stayed with the WPC/NBM
forecast for the entire extended period given the uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms are moving
southeast across the region, but are starting to gradually
decay. The strongest activity will approach KRUT between
00z-01z, but with the convection declining, MVFR visibility is
and lightning in the vicinity seem the most likely outcome.
Another batch of activity will arc south overnight with another
trough about 04z-09z, but will likely have limited impact. In
between, fog may briefly develop if there are any breaks in
cloud. For now, noted VCFG at KEFK and KRUT, and then 4SM BR at
KSLK before clouds increase with ceilings 1500-4000 ft agl with
the secondary batch of showers shifting southwards. Winds will
become light and variable, and then north or northeast at 5 to
10 knots beyond 12z. Skies will trend FEW or SCT with perhaps a
few cumulus clouds in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes/Kremer
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Kremer
AVIATION...Hastings/Haynes