308
FXUS61 KBTV 131125
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
119 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 115 AM EST Tuesday...
No significant changes were made with this forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 115 AM EST Tuesday...

1. Gusty south winds will bring above normal temperatures today and
Wednesday. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected, especially in the
Champlain Valley and on the northern slopes of the Adirondacks.

2. Widespread light to moderate snowfall late Wednesday into
Thursday, starting as rain in the broad valleys. Winter Weather
Advisories may be needed. Hazardous travel possible for Thursday
morning commute as rain changes over to snow and temperatures
quickly drop below freezing.

3. Colder temperatures will arrive late this week into early
next week, with unsettled weather bringing several chances for
snow showers, which may lead to slick travel at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 115 AM EST Tuesday...

.KEY MESSAGE 1: A developing upper shortwave trough currently over
the Prairie Provinces will slide into the western Great Lakes this
morning and eventually lift up across the St Lawrence Valley
overnight tonight. Meanwhile, the surface low will deepen as it
moves between James Bay and the Great Lakes. Deep south/southwest
flow associated with these features will spread into our area later
today and overnight as the surface low remains well to our north and
west. This flow will allow temperatures to warm well into the 30s to
near 40F by this afternoon. The 55+ kt jet peaks overhead tonight,
limiting cooling and likely keeping overnight lows in the low to mid
30s. This warmth will continue right into Wednesday; highs will
likely be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, well above normal for mid
January.

This strong jet will also allow for gusty south/southwest winds at
the surface, particularly in the Champlain Valley due to channeling.
Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected, with locally higher gusts
possible over Lake Champlain. The northern slopes of the Adirondacks
will likely see locally higher gusts due to downsloping in the
favored locations like Malone. This might be enough to bring down a
few branches, perhaps triggering isolated brief power outages.
Otherwise, gusts should mainly be 20 to 30 mph later today and
overnight tonight.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: The upper trough digs into the Great Lakes Wednesday
afternoon and slowly pushes eastward toward our northern border on
Thursday, closing off as it does so. A secondary surface low will
develop along the cold front associated with the primary low moving
by well to our north. This secondary low will trek very near or
directly over our region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing
widespread precipitation. Given the warm temperatures mentioned
above, expect most areas except for the highest summits will start
out as rain at the onset later Wednesday afternoon. However, much
colder air will rush in behind the low as it makes its way eastward,
and temperatures will fall quite quickly overnight Wednesday night
and through Thursday. Rain will change to snow, and temperatures
will fall through the 20s and into the teens from west to east. A
general 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected by daybreak Thursday
morning, with northern NY seeing the most accumulation as they`ll
drop below freezing earlier than areas further east. With
temperatures dropping below freezing, any standing water could
freeze, especially on elevated or untreated surfaces. This with the
little bit of snow accumulation could make for hazardous travel
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, including for the morning
commute. Temperatures will continue to fall through the daylight
hours Thursday, and winds will become brisk out of the
west/northwest, making for a very chilly day. Snow will trend toward
upslope snow showers as winds turn to the west, with a few more
inches of accumulation possible. Winter Weather Advisories may be
needed; please stay tuned for further updates.

.KEY MESSAGE 3: A return to wintry conditions is expected late
this week as a colder air mass moves into the region, with high
temperatures generally in the teens to low 20s for most of this
time period. In addition to the colder temperatures, upper level
troughing across the region will continue to keep an active
pattern across the region, bringing several chances for
precipitation, especially in the higher terrain and favored
upslope areas. A weak area of low pressure moving through the
region on Sunday looks to bring more widespread light snowfall
to the region, although at this time range there is still plenty
of uncertainty associated with this system. The active and
wintry pattern looks to continue into next week, with another
system potentially impacting the region by mid- week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z WednesdayA mix of MVFR and VFR conditions currently
prevail across the region this morning as snow shower activity
continues to taper off, although there continues to be some brief
pockets of IFR that will dissipate through the morning. Conditions
will gradually improve through the morning, with all terminals
expected to be VFR by 18Z or so. Southerly winds are expected to
increase as the forecast period progresses, with gusts in excess of
25 knots expected, especially in the Champlain Valley at KPBG and
KBTV. Widespread LLWS is expected towards the end of the forecast
period.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely
SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hastings/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV