281
FXUS61 KBTV 222345
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
745 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 234 PM EDT Friday...

*Frost Advisory for southern Franklin County in New York, and
 for Essex County in Vermont have been issued from midnight
 tonight until 7 AM tomorrow morning.

*A cold water special weather statement has been issued for the
 entire region as water temperatures will be below 50 degrees
 during the upcoming holiday weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 234 PM EDT Friday...

1. The cool and dry trend will continue into tomorrow with some
isolated patchy frost in portions of the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom.

2. Light to moderate rain, with cool and breezy conditions are
expected late Saturday night into Sunday. Additional showers
are possible on Memorial Day.

3. Somewhat unsettled mid to late week but no big storm systems

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 234 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: The cool and dry trend will continue into tomorrow with
a 1029 mb area of high pressure sliding east across southern New
England this afternoon into tonight. The retreating high will allow
a large plume of high altitude clouds associated with shower
activity over the Ohio Valley with winds turning more east southeast
into tonight. The latest HREF trends show these clouds a bit delayed
when arriving into the region, which may keep portions of the
Northeast Kingdom on the clearer side for most of the night.
Furthermore, the mid to low clouds look to arrive after sunrise
tomorrow. As such, some patchy frost is possible across mainly Essex
county Vermont. Conversely, in the colder hollows of the Adirondacks
near the vicinity of Saranac Lake, temperatures may still be able to
cool towards freezing if clouds are not as opaque as the NBM
denotes. Given raw guidance depicting lows just above freezing, and
clear skies for at least the first half of the night, have also
issued a Frost Advisory for southern Franklin County as well.
Temperatures will likely level off towards the later part of the
night areawide as clouds increase in thickness. While the rest of
the area will remain above frost advisory, temperatures will still
be unseasonably chilly in the low to mid 40s.

Tomorrow will be the pick of the weekend featuring dry, and mostly
cloudy to overcast skies in some locations. The precipitation shield
will remain to our southeast as a stark area of drier air holds the
moisture at bay for most of the day. Temperatures tomorrow will be
in the low to upper 60s to near 70 degrees. We want to remind
our readers that while temperatures this weekend will be in the
60s to 70s, water temperatures on both Lake Champlain and
smaller lakes and ponds across the area are in the upper 40s to
low 50s. The risk of hypothermia increases when water
temperatures are below 50 degrees. Use caution if boating this
weekend and take the necessary safe cold water boating
practices. Winds by the late afternoon to evening tomorrow will
begin to pick up from the southeast ahead of our next round of
rain Saturday night into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing trends point towards widespread light to
potentially moderate rain Saturday night into Sunday. Precipitation
on the leading edge of a triple point with strong isentropic lift
will move from southwest to northeast late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning. The breakdown of the retreating ridge has become
better timed amongst the hi res guidance with the HRRR denoting an
arrival into northern New York by midnight, and into the Champlain
Valley by 4 to 6 AM. The initial band will likely encounter dry air
with less accumulations, but will saturate the air column. Better
rain rates are expected after sunrise Sunday. A low level jet will
accompany the precipitation shield with 40 to 50 knot south winds at
2500 to 3000 feet, promoting some downslope winds across the western
Greens and northwestern facing slopes of the Adirondacks. Mixing of
these stronger winds will be dependent on the rain rates and any
breaks in the shower activity. Though near summit levels, winds may
gust 30 to 40 MPH. Closer to the valley floors, mean mixed layer
winds on the HRRR and NAM are around 25 to 30 MPH, though rain may
lead to a slight reduction in gust speeds. Currently have 20 to 25
MPH gusts for most of the area with higher gusts in the higher
terrain of the northern Greens and northwestern facing slopes of the
northern Adirondacks. Better chances for mixed down winds will be
Sunday afternoon as precipitation turns from stratiform to more
showery. Trends for winds will need to be monitored for any outdoor
activities during the day Sunday.

The winds should lead to higher rainfall amounts across southern
Vermont and the Adirondacks where rainfall totals have increased to
around half an inch, with locally higher amounts possible. Further
north and east into northern Vermont and northeastern Vermont, lower
amounts to near a quarter will be possible as this region will be
closer to the ridge axis decreasing the amount of lift and moisture
available. Increased clouds and rain cooled air will lead to a
chilly day, especially in the southern and eastern areas due to
easterly flow. Temperatures will largely be 10 to 15 degrees below
normal in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Shower activity will taper off to more mist and isolated light
showers Sunday night with some drying. An additional shortwave will
provide enough energy in association with wrap around moisture from
a deepening coastal low for some more showery rain on Memorial Day.
However, unlike Sunday, warmer temperatures ushered in by westerly
flow will increase into the upper 60s to low 70s. Shower chances on
Memorial Day look highest in the morning with some clearing and
drying trends for the western and northern portions of the region by
Monday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Confidence is increasing that a deep upper trough and
associated cut off surface low will drop down into the region
heading into the middle and end of next week. This will lead to a
few different shower chances and cooler temperatures. More organized
showers are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday night as a cold front
pushes into the region. Behind that, the showers look more
disorganized and diurnally driven. While enough synoptic scale
forcing will be involved to continue the chances overnight, diurnal
heating and the cold air aloft will likely be the main contributors
later in the week. While there will be these showers around, most of
the time it should still be dry. A few snow showers will also be
possible in the highest peaks. The NBM probability of snow levels
below 5,000 feet range between 25 to 50 percent late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...High pressure continues to provide our taf
sites with VFR conditions the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds will
become light and terrain driven after sunset this evening,
before shifting to the south/southeast at 4 to 8 knots on
Saturday, except northeast at MSS. Mid/upper level clouds will
continue to slowly spread across our region tonight into
Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Likely RA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Saturday for
     VTZ004.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Saturday for
     NYZ030.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Myskowski
AVIATION...Taber