546
FXUS61 KBTV 241842
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
142 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A renewed chance for light snow comes to us Christmas Day
morning, especially northern areas, with additional scattered
snow showers pushing southward following another cold front. In
its wake, Friday will be the coldest day of the period with
below zero wind chills in the morning. Thereafter, widespread
precipitation is expected by Sunday night with a wintry mix
possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EST Wednesday...Mountain snow showers are winding
down as ridge of surface high pressure builds into the area.
Minimum temperatures will drop into the mid teens to lower 20s
tonight, and winds have weakened as pressure gradient is
decreasing. Next system to impact our area arrives early
Christmas morning, tracking this way from Canada and bringing
some light snow with it. Light snow will move into the area from
the northwest late tonight, and mostly impacts our northern
mountain zones. Some CAMS are showing potential for some lake
effect snow to the south of Lake Champlain later Thursday
afternoon and into the overnight. Maximum temperatures on
Thursday will range from the lower to upper 20s. High pressure
then ridges into our area out of Canada later Thursday into
Thursday night. Temperatures will be quite cold Thursday night
with single digits above and below zero anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EST Wednesday...Cold Canadian high pressure over
the area early Friday morning will slide eastward making way for
next approaching system for our region as very active weather
pattern remains in place. Friday will be one of our coldest in a
while with high temperatures only reaching the single digits to
teens above zero. Even with light wind speeds, wind chills will
be in the single digits above and below zero for much of the
day. As the high pressure area moves to the east late in the
day, temperatures could continue to gradually rise even after
sunset with cold air advection ceasing. Skies will tend to be
overcast, although clouds will be high altitude ones, with
abundant low level dry air expected. These clouds will tend to
thicken with time and from the west, ahead of the next weather
system passing to our south. For Friday night a low pressure
system will track along the Ohio river valley and well south of
our region. Have opted to only mention chance for snow along our
southern periphery Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM EST Wednesday...The main focus for next week will
be a wintry system late Sunday into Monday. The past couple of
GFS runs have caught onto the ECMWF and CMC solutions: primary
low pressure lifts northeastward from the Ohio Valley, into
southeastern Ontario, staying just west of the St Lawrence
Valley as it moves by. This primary low is expected to
eventually give way to a secondary low which will develop in
southern New England into the Gulf of Maine. With a closer
primary low and later development of the secondary, there`s more
certainty in a mix of precipitation types as warm air rides
over cold air at the surface. 850 mb temperatures warm to 3-5C.
There`s still some question on how far northeast the warmer air
makes it before getting shunted back south as the secondary low
takes over. Surface temperatures are also in question; expect
we`ll see warming conditions Sunday night into Monday morning,
potentially up into the mid/upper 30s before colder air rushes
in behind a cold frontal passage Monday afternoon/night. Given
this, have introduced a wintry mix for late Sunday through
Monday morning, but tried to keep multiple precipitation types
in any one location given the continued uncertainty. Still,
expect any mix and/or plain rain to change back over to snow
later Monday into Monday night after the cold front moves
through. Snow showers will likely continue through Tuesday as
the upper trough swings overhead.

After the brief warm up on Monday, much colder conditions
return as we get under brisk northwest flow. Highs on Tuesday
and Wednesday will likely only be in the teens and 20s. Combined
with gusty northwest winds, wind chills near or below zero look
pretty likely both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z Thursday...Mainly MVFR to prevail through the TAF
period. A few lingering snow showers may lower visibilities at
KSLK through 21z this afternoon, but generally dry weather
expected until more snow showers move into the region after 06z
Thu. Then light snow will lower visibilities to 4-6SM, mainly at
the northern terminals, continuing through the remainder of the
TAF period. IFR visibilities will be possible, particularly at
KSLK and KEFK. Ceilings will generally remain 1500-2500 through
the entire period, but there could be a break of VFR ceilings
02z-12z, mainly at KRUT/KBTV/KMPV. North winds 5-10 kt with
local gusts to 20 kt this afternoon, trending light and variable
overnight. Winds turning to the south after 12z Thu.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. Definite SHSN, Likely RA, Likely SN.
Monday: VFR. Likely SN, Likely RA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV