284
FXUS61 KBTV 081111
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
611 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 152 AM EST Sunday...
No significant changes made to forecast as
bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills prevail into Monday.
Additional cold headlines will be needed tonight into Monday for
parts of the region.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 152 AM EST Sunday...
1. Bitterly cold wind chills and temperatures prevail through
Monday across our region with wind chill values in the -15F to -35F
range, except locally colder in the mountains. Frostbite and
hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these
temperatures.
2. Clipper system to bring more light snows to the region
Tuesday into Tuesday night, followed by quiet weather and moderating
temperatures from Wednesday onward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 152 AM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Bitterly cold temperatures in the 0 to -20F range
prevail this morning with wind chill values mostly in the -15F to
locally -35F. Progged 925mb temps modify slightly this aftn into the
-18C to -22C, supporting highs in the 0 to 10F range, but near -5F
at summits. Wind chills slowly improve into the -5F to -20F range by
midday, with near -30F at the summits. Clouds with pockets of light
snow continue to rotate acrs northern VT in the cyclonic/upslope
flow aloft, while blocked flow prevails below summit level. Have
continued with chc pops acrs the eastern CPV and northern/central
Greens into the NEK thru this morning, but any accumulation wl be
<1.0". Sfc dwpts in the -15F to -25F indicates drier air is
advecting into our region on northerly winds, which should help
improve cigs and result in some clearing in downslope areas today.
Tonight temps are challenging again as 1036mb sfc high pres is
progged to slowly advance eastward toward the northern/western NY,
while northerly flow conts acrs our fa. Always have concerns with
cyclonic northerly flow and prevailing cloud cover, especially mtns
of central/northern VT, including the NEK. Expect a wide range in
temps as colder/deeper protected valleys decouple, while
midslopes/summits stay slightly warmer as sharp/shallow thermal
inversion develops. Have trended temps toward the cooler MAV
guidance, which shows lows in the -5F to -25F, with slightly colder
wind chills. The combination of cold temps and wind chills will
likely require additional cold headlines tonight into Monday.
Weakening 1024mb sfc high pres is centered directly overhead on
Monday into Monday night with several ribbons of enhanced mid lvl
moisture associated with waa aloft shifting acrs our fa. These
ribbons of mid lvl moisture, while sfc remains very dry with light
winds makes for another challenging temp forecast on Monday night
into Tues. Based on very dry dwpts and light winds with mostly clear
skies, just high clouds, have trended toward the cooler MAV guidance
for Monday night into Tues. This idea supports lows 0 to -15F, but
if more clouds develop lows wl be much warmer.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Models remain in broad agreement in showing a northern
stream clipper low to track east-southeast across the area during
Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Fairly strong warm thermal advection
through the mid levels and a brief 6-hour window where PWATs climb
to near 0.5 inches should be more than enough to produce a period of
light snows across the region during this time frame. Mean
probabilities support a general 1-4 inch event, with greatest totals
in the northern mountains. Behind this system, consensus continues
to support a welcomed moderation in temperatures back toward
seasonal norms with quiet weather under high pressure.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday....A mix of VFR/MVFR through the period.
Scattered flurries possible on and off through the morning at
KSLK/KBTV/KEFK/KMPV. Winds northwesterly 6-12 kts and
occasionally gusty this afternoon, abating after 00Z Monday.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Likely
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN.
Wednesday: MVFR. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if
you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ026-
027-029>031-034-087.
Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ028-
035.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Lahiff/Storm
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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