483
FXUS61 KBTV 140623
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
223 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area today, some of which could produce heavy
rainfall. Drier weather returns for Tuesday, but heat builds through
mid week, peaking on Wednesday. Then another frontal passage will
lead to increased thunder chances for Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 222 AM EDT Monday...Showers and thunderstorms have waned early
this morning now that we`ve fully lost diurnal heating. There`s
still plenty of moisture though as we remain south of the incoming
cold front. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows a ribbon of 1.7+ inch
PWATs stretching across our forecast area, and this combined with a
weakening MCV is helping to keep additional shower activity going
across portions of central and eastern NY. Some of this may make it
into our forecast area during the early morning hours, but expect
the bulk of any precipitation to hold off until after sunrise.
Heating will allow for quick destabilization, and SB CAPEs will
quickly rise above 1000 J/kg by early afternoon. Winds will trend a
bit more toward the west as the front makes its push southeastward,
spreading drier air from northwest to southeast. The latest guidance
shows this drier air progressing a bit faster than previously
anticipated, likewise shunting the plume of higher PWATs southward.
As a result, expect that convection will first develop over northern
VT late this morning/early afternoon, but the overall focus will
quickly shift southward through the afternoon and evening hours,
while the cells themselves keep a decent eastward forward motion.
Still anticipate any showers/thunderstorms to be efficient rain
makers given the tall, skinny CAPE, deep warm cloud depths, and high
PWATs, and rainfall rates could approach 1-2 in/hr at times. But the
influx of drier air will help limit potential for training, and note
that the threat of 3+ inches in 3 hours has shifted to our south
with the latest HREF guidance. 1/3/6 hour flash flood guidance
generally remains 1.5-2.5 in/2-3 in/2.5-4 in respectively, with
locally lower values in areas that recently received heavy rainfall,
ie portions of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. With all that
in mind, isolated instances of flash flooding will still be possible
today, and much of our area remains in WPC`s Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall. Radar trends will need to be monitored closely
through the day, especially in those aforementioned more-flood
susceptible areas. The severe weather threat is fairly minimal
today. Mid level lapse rates will generally be poor, and deep layer
shear is weak, keeping the threat for strong winds mostly to our
south.
Otherwise, expect today will be seasonably warm though a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, mainly in the low to mid 80s. Showers and
thunderstorms will end fairly quickly this evening as we lose
heating and drier air spreads into the region. Patchy fog will be
possible late, especially in the favored river valleys in eastern
Vermont. Lows will be fairly comfortable, in the upper 50s to
mid/upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 222 AM EDT Monday...The story for mid week will be another
round of heat and humidity. Ample sunshine will prevail both days,
along with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Dewpoints will generally
be in the 60s, which isn`t overly oppressive, but they`ll still make
for muggy days and nights. Wednesday will be the warmest day with
925mb temperatures warming to 25-27C; heat index values are expected
to reach into the low to mid 90s in many locations. Heat advisories
will likely be needed for mid week; we`ll continue to monitor trends
closely.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 222 AM EDT Monday...A more meaningful cold front will finally
pass through late this week, but its exact timing and impacts are
still uncertain. Showers associated with a prefrontal trough look
likely for part of Thursday, but they do not look widespread enough
to keep temperatures from reaching the mid 80s to low 90s. The
actual cold front looks to move through sometime either Thursday
night or Friday. If it passes through during the day some stronger
storms could be possible due to diurnal heating. While any storms
associated with the front should have decent storm motion and
potentially prevent much of a flood risk, some of them beforehand
could be slower moving. Combined with ingredients very favorable for
heavy rain like high PWATs and very large warm cloud depths, the
threat will have to be watched. The WPC has placed the region in a
marginal risk for flash flooding for this reason. Behind the front,
a few showers chances continue for the weekend but temperatures
should be much closer to seasonable.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Currently all terminals are VFR ahead of a
cold front, with clusters of showers and thunderstorms
stretching across northern New York and northwestern Vermont.
Within the heavier showers, there will be temporary IFR
conditions. Through the next six hours this should be primarily
at Vermont TAF sites as most of the stronger convection is
pushing northeastward out of the Adirondacks. There are
additional showers trailing behind in northern New York with
generally VFR visibilities and ceilings. While MVFR ceilings are
favored at sites like EFK and MPV towards daybreak as some
lowering of ceilings occurs behind the heavy rain tonight, there
should be enough southwesterly flow off the deck to help scour
out the near surface moisture. Otherwise mainly VFR conditions
should persist.
Winds have diminished with the precipitation moving into the
area, but will tend to remain southerly through at least 12Z. In
northern New York a wind shift to westerly will occur after
that time with the cold frontal passage. Farther east, winds
will turn westerly towards 15-20Z, leading to a window of at
least a few hours in which showers and possibly a thunderstorm
may develop.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Danzig/Kutikoff
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