033
FXUS61 KBTV 292335
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
735 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 224 PM EDT Sunday...
Temperatures for Monday have been increased slightly given slightly
warmer air being advected northward. We are now looking at
temperatures warming into the mid 50s to lower 60s. In addition,
rainfall totals have been increased for Monday night through
Wednesday evening with widespread 1-1.5 inches expected with
localized 2+ inches possible. No flooding is anticipated at this
time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 224 PM EDT Sunday...
1. Quiet and seasonably mild weather expected today and Monday.
2. Widespread rainfall is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with
some rivers possibly approaching bankful.
3. Mixed precipitation possible Thursday Into Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 224 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Partly sunny skies will continue through the remainder of
today and again on Monday. Warm air advection is already underway,
which is evident in temperatures already in the mid 30s to lower 40s
which happens to be nearly 10 degrees warmer than this time
yesterday. Southerly winds have increased, especially in the
Champlain Valley to 20 to 25 mph at times. These winds will weaken
tonight as the boundary layer stabilizes with a return of wind gusts
between 20 and 35 mph Monday afternoon. These winds will help usher
in an even warmer airmass, with temperatures climbing into the mid
50s to lower 60s Monday afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A wet pattern is expected across the North Country and
northern New York on Tuesday and is likely to continue well into
Wednesday. A warm front is expected to slide north through the
region Tuesday morning before stalling just north of the
International Border. Initially, rainfall is expected to be more
scattered in nature but will become widespread by early afternoon as
an area of low pressure and shortwave energy aloft moves along the
frontal boundary. Models are pinging some impressive low-level and
mid-level forcing which should help produce a period of moderate
rainfall late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. A brief break
in steady precipitation is expected Tuesday night as the warm front
finally makes progress northward. However, it will be short-lived as
a cold front will quickly move into the region early Wednesday
morning with another period of moderate rainfall possible with
decent convergence along the leading edge of the front. Following
the frontal passage Wednesday morning, conditions will rapidly dry
out but winds will be gusty from the northwest at 20 to 30 mph in
addition to falling temperatures throughout the day. It`ll be quite
the contrast to the previous days in the 50s and 60s.
In terms of rainfall, we are looking at a widespread 1-1.5 inches of
rainfall with localized 2+ inches possible. The GFS and NAM differ
significantly with the strength of the low level jet Tuesday
afternoon which will impact our precipitation pattern as a stronger
southwest jet would favor less winds in the Champlain Valley but
could also support 40+ mph winds. For now, a GFS/ECMWF/CMC blend
which is more in line with the NBM with the NAM being an outlier.
The MMEFS does show some decent river rises Tuesday into Wednesday
with less than 25% chance of minor river flooding. We do expected
river to approach bankful in a few locations (AuSable, Otter Creek,
Mad River) but aren`t currently expecting any flooding at this time.
We could see the probability of minor flooding increase or decrease
based on the expected precipitation, so continue to check back in on
the forecast to see if this changes.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Another storm system makes a run at the region for late
Thursday into Friday, but it currently looks to take a slightly more
southerly track than the one earlier in the week. However, the
models have been trending north so it is looking warmer than
yesterday. Canadian high pressure will be established on Thursday
and it will provide a cold antecedent airmass for this low pressure
to run into. With the current favored storm track, the precipitation
looks to start as a wintry mix and transition to all rain, but being
relatively far out, there is plenty of time for a significant change
in the storm track and therefore precipitation types. Combined
GEFS/EPS/CAN ensemble probabilities of 1 inch or more of snow
generally range between 40-70 percent, 3 are between 20-40 percent
and 6 are between 10-20 percent. The highest probabilities are
farther northeast. Probabilities of 0.1 inch or more of freezing
rain are between 20-40 percent for the favored locations east of the
Greens and in southern Essex County NY. The large caveat here is
that with the warming trend and looking at the new deterministic
guidance, these probabilities will likely come down, especially with
the snow.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions to prevail through the
entire TAF period, with only KSLK to see MVFR ceilings late
Monday afternoon. Mid/high clouds will increase this evening as
a warm front lifts across the region. This SCT- BKN cloud cover
will remain AOA 5000 ft through 18z Mon, then start to slowly
lower thereafter as moisture increasing ahead of an approaching
cold front. Ceilings should generally remain VFR until 00z Tue,
with KSLK the lone exception. A few showers are possible Monday
afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain.
Generally light S/SW winds overnight tonight will give way to
gusty conditions during the day Monday. Gusts of 20-30 kt are
expected, with the strongest gusts to occur in the St Lawrence
and Champlain Valleys. Note that some marginal wind shear will
also be possible overnight tonight as a LLJ works overhead. The
main time frame for any LLWS would be 06z-12z.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Thursday Night: MVFR and IFR. Likely RA, Likely SN.
Friday: MVFR. Likely RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Clay/Myskowski
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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