712
FXUS61 KBTV 151858
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
158 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for light snow will continue tonight, with additional
showers expected Wednesday. By mid-week, a warming trend will begin,
with temperatures above freezing expected for Wednesday and
Thursday. A stronger system will bring gusty winds and
widespread rainfall late Thursday, with colder air returning on
Friday behind a cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 158 PM EST Monday...It continues to be a cold day across the
region this afternoon, with current temperatures in the teens to low
20s areawide. While mostly dry conditions are currently being
observed this afternoon, some additional snow showers will be
possible this evening through the overnight as a weak shortwave
passes overhead, especially across northern New York where Lake
Ontario will aid with additional shower development. Overall total
snowfall accumulations will be fairly minor, with an inch or so in
the most favored areas. Overnight lows will be on the cool side,
with temperatures in the single digits and teens.
Shower activity will continue to wane as we head into tomorrow
morning, with weak ridging building overhead and warm air advection
beginning to take place. Winds will be breezy Tuesday night into
Wednesday, especially in the Champlain Valley and the higher
summits. Temperatures will still be on the cool side for Tuesday,
with daytime highs generally in the 20s to low 30s. Temperatures
will continue to warm through the night towards Wednesday morning
with locations approaching freezing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 158 PM EST Monday...The active weather pattern will continue
across the region, with several chances for precipitation next week.
A weak low pressure system will pass along the International border,
bringing some light showers to the northern portion of the forecast
area. Precipitation amounts will generally be pretty light with this
system, although temperatures will likely to allow for some rain in
the broader valleys with high temperatures ranging in the low 30s to
near 40. Strong southerly winds will continue as we head into
Thursday, with temperatures warming above freezing areawide and with
some locations even in the low 40s by the afternoon. Winds will be
quite strong, especially within the Champlain Valley due to a strong
low level jet overhead. Precipitation will begin to move into the
region Thursday evening, primarily as rainfall with additional
details in the discussion below.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 158 PM EST Monday...An impactful system is still on track for
Thursday night and Friday. A strong low pressure system will lift
north through the Great Lakes Thursday night and then trek eastward
north of the international border on Friday. A robust 850 mb jet of
70-80 kt will usher in strong warm air advection Thursday night,
allowing temperatures to warm well into the 40s overnight. Steady
rain will spread from west to east, perhaps starting as snow at the
highest elevations. But we do expect even our tallest peaks will
turn over to rain late Thursday night as 850mb temperatures warm to
nearly +5C. The steady nature of the rain will help to keep the bulk
of the jet from mixing to lower elevations, but we do expect the
higher summits will be very windy, as will Lake Champlain. As the
low moves by to our north on Friday, it will drag a strong cold
front across northern NY and VT, resulting in sharply dropping
temperatures. Rain will quickly change over to snow from west to
east, and given the strong frontogenetical forcing, wouldn`t be
surprised if precipitation (both rain and snow) is heavy at times
Friday morning into the early afternoon. Winds will shift to the
west behind the front and once again become quite gusty as cold air
advection results in better mixing. It`s still a little too early to
talk any kind of specific rain or snow amounts, but do anticipate at
least some modest river rises due to runoff from both rain and
snowmelt. Whether it will be enough to flush out any of the river
ice that has formed already this season is likewise still uncertain.
There could also be a bit of freezing rain at the onset of
precipitation, particularly in eastern VT where cold air may be
tougher to scour out. So travel impacts will also be possible,
either Thursday night or on Friday as rain turns back to snow, with
roads potentially experiencing a flash freeze. Winds and any heavier
snow could also impact utilities. So please stay tuned as this event
draws closer, as we`ll continue to refine the forecast as the
details become more clear.
High pressure briefly noses in on Saturday, but another round of
precipitation is possible for the latter half of the weekend as
another weaker low moves by to our north. Precip could be a mix of
rain and snow, though it should change over to all snow Sunday night
as colder air wraps back around the system as it departs to the
east. High pressure looks to return for Monday, with dry but cool
conditions expected.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Upslope and lake effect snow showers are
expected to be the main aviation hazard over the next 24 hours,
particularly at sites SLK and EFK. For SLK, it is a question of how
far a lake effect snow band reaches off Lake Ontario and for how
long it brings ceilings 2000-3000 feet above ground level and
visibilities below 6 miles at the site. Most likely time frame for
any potential IFR vis will be 00Z-04Z Tuesday. After this, winds are
expected to diminish enough to limit lake effect snow, though MVFR
ceilings will likely be stuck around SLK though at least 06Z,
perhaps continuing on and off through the entire 24 hour period.
For EFK, upslope snow showers are possible 00Z-06Z Tuesday with
similar timing to SLK in regards to MVFR ceilings, though lower
confidence in any prevailing MVFR ceilings. Rather, EFK looks to
have less frequent MVFR cigs on Tuesday, especially as clouds become
less widespread around 12Z-18Z. Gusty westerly winds, gusting 15-20
knots, may also impact EFK through about 23Z today. Outside of EFK
and SLK, chances remain low (below 30%) for any snow showers, though
MVFR ceilings 2500-3000 ft AGL may affect MPV and MSS on and off now
through 01Z Tuesday.
Northwesterly winds this afternoon may be gusty 15-20 knots in spots
across central and northern Vermont, but winds will quickly decrease
overall into the evening, falling below 10 knots and turning
southerly to southwesterly by 00Z Tuesday. Site with highest
confidence of a period of LLWS is SLK around 00Z-06Z Tuesday as
surface winds turn and decrease while winds aloft stay northwesterly
and breezy. Surface winds are expected to pick up slightly again
tomorrow afternoon, though generally remaining below 15 knots.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA, Chance
SN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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