280
FXUS61 KBTV 130638
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
238 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will continue to bring overcast skies and chances of
rain and breezy winds to the region today, with precipitation
tapering off for Tuesday. Cool and dry conditions will continue
through the remainder of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 237 AM EDT Monday...The main story for today will continue to
be the coastal low moving northward, bringing plenty of cloud cover
and chances for rain. The system has been slow to move and has
plenty of drier air to overcome, with precipitation just starting to
reach the ground across southern Vermont, where steadier
precipitation can be expected as the day progresses. The
precipitation gradient across the region continues to tighten, with
southern Vermont seeing about 0.75 inches to around and inch of rain
while northern locations will likely miss out completely. High
temperatures today will be on the cooler side, with highs generally
in the 50s today under the overcast skies. Heading into tonight,
precipitation will continue to shift eastward out of the area.
Overnight lows tonight will generally be in the upper 30s and 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 237 AM EDT Monday...Although a few lingering showers cannot be
ruled out, drier conditions are expected throughout the day Tuesday.
Seasonable temperatures are expected, with highs climbing into the
upper 50s and lower 60s with plenty of lingering cloud cover. Winds
will be relatively light during the day Tuesday, but overnight into
Wednesday a period of gusty northerly winds will be possible,
especially on Lake Champlain as a moisture-starved front approaches
the region. Temperatures will be much cooler for Wednesday under
brisk northerly flow, with highsss only climbing onto the 40s and
low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 218 AM EDT Monday...Main concern for long term wl be the
potential for near critical fire wx conditions on Thursday,
followed by more unsettled wx next weekend. Little change in our
thinking for Thursday with brisk northerly flow of 10 to 20 mph
with localized gusts 20 to 25 mph possible in aligned north to
south valleys (Champlain Valley) and exposed midslopes/ridges.
Sounding profiles suggest some mixing of drier air near 850mb to
support min rh`s near critical fire wx thresholds. Still some
spread in how low rh`s get, because of cool thermal profiles and
sfc temps only in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Next system
approaches our cwa late Sat into Sunday with a round of rain
showers likely. Both GFS/ECMWF show good dynamics associated
with this deepening mid/upper lvl trof and sfc cold frnt, but
still have some timing difference. Given this uncertainty have
continued with NBM pops which brings a period of likely pops on
Sunday. Warm southerly flow ahead of this system wl produce
above normal temps on Sat/Saturday night, before cooler air
arrives for early next week. Highs well into the 60s are likely
on Sat with lows only in the mid 40s to mid 50s Saturday night
with increasing southerly winds.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...The primary aviation impact today will be
areas of low level wind shear of 35 to 40 knots associated with
strengthening 1500 to 4000 feet above ground level wind field.
Also, areas of light rain will continue to rotate from south to
north across our taf sites. Initially given high cloud bases
and dry surface conditions expect mostly VFR conditions, but as
moisture deepens, areas of MVFR cigs are possible at MPV/RUT
after 18z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions should prevail for the next
6 to 12 hours as cigs slowly lower with areas of light rain.
East to southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots with localized gusts up
15 to 20 knots possible at RUT.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. Chance RA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
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