449
FXUS61 KBTV 052303
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
603 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 132 PM EST Thursday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast at this
time. An Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect for the entire
North Country for Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 132 PM EST Thursday...
1. Quiet weather expected through Friday afternoon. Light and
dry snowfall expected Friday night into Saturday afternoon. Minor
travel impacts possible late Friday night and Saturday.
2. Dangerously cold wind chills of 20 to 40 below expected over
the weekend.
3. No significant impacts are expected through much of next
week, with temperatures moderating closer to normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 132 PM EST Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Weak high pressure overhead will slowly shift eastward
overnight into Friday morning leading to a period of quiet weather.
Very cold temperatures are expected once again tonight under mostly
clear skies with lows bottoming out in the single digits above and
below zero. These temperatures may be tipping point that allow for
Lake Champlain to completely freeze over for the first time since
March 8th, 2019.
An arctic cold front will approach from the west Friday night with a
exceptionally sharp thermal gradient which is depicted well by
deterministic NWP guidance. Although the front is expected to come
through overnight Friday into Saturday morning, sufficient low level
convergence and frontogenesis should support some decent snow
showers and perhaps a snow squall or two. Model soundings continue
to show snow ratios of 20:1 to 25:1 which could allow for a
widespread 1-3" of snowfall across northern New York and Vermont.
The western slopes of the Green and Adirondack Mountains should see
a favorable upslope component, especially on saturday, that could
allow for some localized accumulations between 3-6". Impacts will
likely be minimal given the dry nature of the snow but it`s always
encourages to allow for extra time if you need to travel during this
timeframe. As winds pick up behind the arctic front, we could see
some blowing and drifting of the snow that could lead to localized
visibility reductions.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures will begin to plummet Saturday morning in
the wake of the arctic cold front and will continue to fall
throughout the day. Don`t let the high temperature fool you as the
high temperature on Saturday will likely occur around 8 AM with
temperatures by early afternoon already in the single digits. Winds
will also increase in the wake of the FROPA which will allow wind
chills to drop below zero by early Saturday afternoon. Temperatures
will only continue to fall from here with overnight lows on Saturday
dropping into the negative teens except in the negative single
digits across the Champlain Valley. Winds will remain steady at 8 to
15 mph through the overnight period which will allow for dangerously
cold wind chills to develop. The latest guidance continues to
suggest widespread wind chills between 20 and 40 degrees below zero
for the entire region with the coldest wind chills across northern
New York. An Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect for Saturday and
Sunday and an upgrade to warnings and advisories could be issued
within the next 24 hours.
Temperatures will "try" to warm on Sunday under plentiful
sunshine but given how cold this air mass will be, very limited
warming is expected. For reference, doing a backwards HYSPLIT
trajectory on the approaching air mass, it`s obvious this air mass
is coming straight out of Siberia with little time to modify before
impacting the northeastern US. Wind chills on Sunday will remain
well below zero throughout the day as winds continue but will
finally begin to weaken Sunday night. Additional cold headlines may
be needed for northern New York Sunday night but the degree of cold
will be far less than that seen Saturday night/Sunday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A relatively cold and dry start to next week is expected
across the region as surface high pressure remains across the
region. Temperatures look to moderate as the week progresses, with
daytime highs nearing seasonal normals towards the end of the
forecast period, in contrast to the bitter cold this weekend. While
there is more certainty regarding the dry conditions early next
week, there is still a large spread regarding precipitation chances
towards the middle of next week. For now, the current forecast
showing some slight chances for light snowfall towards the end of
next week, especially across some of the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Other than some very localized fog
expected tonight in the valleys of the Adirondacks and Greens,
quiet weather is anticipated through Friday afternoon. Light and
dry snowfall is forecast Friday night into Saturday afternoon.
Minor travel impacts possible late Friday night into Saturday.
In terms of IFR/LIFR potential in the valleys, KSLK looks like
the most likely spot to see these cig and vis restrictions
around 05Z through 12Z Friday, though some high resolution
models are suggesting lower levels of the atmosphere may become
saturated a little earlier, around 03Z or 04Z. KMPV has a more
limited potential for vis and cig restriction with only a
shallow layer of saturation expected 05Z through 12Z Friday.
Outside of KSLK and KMPV, VFR conditions are likely to prevail
over the next 24 hours with winds out of the north switching to
southerly on Friday. As light and dry snowfall approach from the
west and southwest later on Friday, we also expect ceilings to
lower throughout the afternoon with light snow showers and
ceilings 2500-3000 feet above ground level arriving across
northern New York and southern Vermont as early as 22Z Friday.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible.
Definite SHSN, Chance SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if
you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
afternoon for NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Neiles
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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