898
FXUS61 KBTV 031828
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
228 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 227 PM EDT Friday...
The Winter Weather Advisory for eastern Vermont has been allowed to
expire as temperatures have warmed above freezing. A wind advisory
has been issued for northern New York and northwestern Vermont
Saturday night into Sunday morning for northern New York and
northwestern Vermont.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 227 PM EDT Friday...
1. Gusty winds will continue this afternoon.
2. Strong winds and rainfall expected Saturday night and
Sunday; quieter on Monday
3. Cool and showery weather is expected for early next week,
with high pressure bringing dry weather for mid-week. More
seasonable temperatures are expected as the week progresses.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 227 PM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Wind gusts today have largely over-performed in the
northern Champlain Valley where wind gusts between 45 and 55 mph
were quite common. Although mixing continues to increase as surface
temperatures warm, our winds have likely peaked as the low level jet
has now shifted east into New Hampshire. Nevertheless, gusty winds
in the 25 to 40 mph range will be common through 7 PM. Winds will
weaken following sunset and will switch to the north/northwest
following a cold front passage. A few showers may accompany the cold
front but the current radar looks rather unimpressive with just a
few pinprick showers around.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Most of Saturday will be a beautiful spring day across
the North Country and northern New York with glimpses of sun,
temperatures warming into the 50s, and north winds of 5 to 15 mph.
Cloud cover will begin to increase Saturday afternoon ahead of an
approaching warm front but it looks like rainfall will likely hold
off until after sunset. Numerical guidance, both deterministic and
ensembles, have shown a noticeable jump to less precipitation and
stronger winds Saturday night into Sunday. Initially, the warm front
will encounter a pocket of drier air which will initially limit
rainfall Saturday night. However, deeper moisture is expected to
advect northward through the nighttime hours. A strong cold front
with an impressive thermal gradient will move through the region
Sunday morning with widespread rainfall expected with the frontal
passage. A strong mid-level and upper-level jet will help quickly
push the front eastward, thus limiting overall rainfall totals. The
latest forecast highlights reduced rainfall amounts Saturday night
and Sunday with most locations likely to see a quarter to half of an
inch of rain with slightly higher amounts expected throughout the
St. Lawrence Valley.
Initially, some rainfall may start off as freezing rain across far
eastern Vermont as cold air will be in place as precipitation begins
to fall. The big caveat for the freezing rain potential Saturday
night/Sunday morning will be how warm we get during the day on
Saturday as most guidance has warmer temperature channeling up the
Connecticut River Valley. We have opted to not issue a winter
weather advisory for freezing rain at this time but if the
possibility for freezing rain increases, an advisory may be
warranted.
A Wind Advisory has been issued for northern New York and
northwestern Vermont Saturday night through Sunday morning for wind
gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range. The latest HREF probabilities of
greater than 45 mph winds has increased to 80+% which was enough for
us to go ahead and issue the advisory. Luckily, leaves haven`t
formed on tree branches just yet which will help mitigate the overall
impact of these stronger winds. Nevertheless, a few power outages as
seen today will be possible.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A cool and showery weather pattern is expected to
continue for the early portion of next week as the region remains
under the influence of an upper level low and persistent
northwesterly flow. Temperatures Monday night into Tuesday will be
cold enough to support some mountain snow showers, but the broader
valleys should remain warm enough that any precipitation should fall
as rain. Shower activity will begin to wane throughout the day
Tuesday as high pressure begins to nose into the region, with drier
conditions expected for Wednesday into Thursday before a frontal
boundary pushes through the region and brings additional chances for
showers. Temperatures to start the week will be on the cold side,
with highs only in the 30s and low 40s, but towards the end of the
week temperatures look to trend into the 50s and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...LLWS and gusty surface winds will be the
main aviation threat this forecast period with some IFR/MVFR
CIGs being the secondary threat. We also have some areas of
mixed precipitation this morning, but should change to all rain
shortly. A low level jet slowly moves through the region with
60kts in the 2000-5000ft layer resulting in both speed and
directional shear promoting hazardous flying conditions.
Conditions range from VFR down to IFR currently with ceilings
and visibilities varying from one site to another. SFC winds
will continue to strengthen throughout the TAF period, with
gusts of 20 to 40 knots possible before speeds begin to taper
down after 22Z.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for VTZ001-
002-005.
NY...Wind Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
NYZ026>031-035-087.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Clay/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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