526
FXUS61 KBTV 120643
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
243 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low over the Mid-Atlantic will bring increasing clouds to
the region today, with precipitation chances arriving later tonight.
Breezy easterly winds are expected across southern Vermont today,
with some localized downslope wind gusts up to 35 mph possible
tonight into Monday over eastern Rutland County. Cool and mostly dry
conditions will continue beyond Tuesday under cyclonic flow through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 239 AM EDT Sunday...The first half of today will be relatively
quiet as the region remains in between a departing area of high
pressure and an approaching coastal low, which will bring increasing
clouds throughout the day and be the main weather feature of note as
we head into the beginning of next week. The tightening gradient
across the region will allow for some breezy winds, particularly
across southern Vermont where wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will be the
most likely. Although relative humidity values will be increasing,
with minimum RH values around 40% to 50%, the gusty winds in
combination with the recent dry conditions could lead to some fire
weather concerns early this afternoon, with additional information
in the Fire Weather section below. Temperatures today will generally
be in the low to mid 60s, with some locations in the St. Lawrence
Valley nearing 70.

Precipitation will start approaching the region later this evening,
but the bulk of the precipitation will overspread the region during
the day Monday. There continues to be a rather sharp gradient of
precipitation across the region, with portions of southern Vermont
likely seeing an inch of rainfall, while northern Vermont and the
St. Lawrence Valley only receiving hardly anything. Breezy
conditions will continue heading into Monday, with some downsloping
off the southern Greens bringing gusts of 30 mph in Rutland County.
Mountain summits could see gusts up to 40 to 50 mph as they will be
more exposed and higher receiving the bulk of the low level jet
winds. Overnight lows will be on the milder side compared to the
last several nights given the increased cloud cover, with
temperatures generally in the 40s. The rainy and overcast conditions
will help keep temperatures cool during the day on Monday, with high
temperatures in the 50s, with some locations east of the Green
Mountains struggling to climb out of the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 239 AM EDT Sunday...Precipitation will begin to shift eastward
Monday night, with conditions trending drier for Tuesday, although a
few lingering showers cannot be ruled out. Overnight lows Monday
night will be on the milder side once again, generally in the 40s.
Seasonable temperatures are expected for Tuesday, with highs
climbing into the upper 50s and lower 60s with plenty of lingering
cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 216 AM EDT Sunday...A highly amplified pattern is progged
acrs the CONUS for Tues night into next weekend with trof acrs
the Rockies, ridge over the central Plains, and mid/upper lvl
trof over the ne CONUS. The northerly flow aloft wl advect a
pocket of cooler temps acrs our cwa for mid week with brisk
winds expected. The orientation of the mid/upper lvl flow is
from central Canada and pw values drop below 0.25" so not
anticipating much qpf in the long term. Best potential for a few
light showers wl be associated with s/w energy and cold frnt on
Tues night into Weds, but moisture parameters are limited, so
mainly a dry cold frnt anticipated. A few mtn induced showers
are possible on Weds under moderately strong caa. Also, as a well
aligned northerly flow of progged 850mb air btwn -4C and -7C
moves acrs the warmer Lake Champlain waters, expect lake
enhanced clouds with a few sprinkles/light rain showers
possible. Given progged 850mb winds of 20 to 35 knots and good
mixing, a prolonged Lake Wind Advisory is likely for Weds thru
Thurs of this upcoming week. In addition, given the very dry air
aloft and potential for some mixing, we wl have to watch
winds/rh`s closely for potential fire wx concerns for mid to
late week. Difficult to determine rh`s at this stage, given the
cool airmass in place. Did utilize our in house mtn max T tool
to integrate cooler summit temps on Weds and Thurs associated
with progged 850mb temps btwn -4C and -7C, which support highs
mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s summits to mid 40s to lower
50s warmer valleys. Temps start to modify on winds shift to the
south/southwest by late week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Near term aviation challenge is potential
for IFR at SLK/MPV in fog/br early this morning. Currently VFR
conditions prevail with clear skies and light winds, which have
allowed temperatures to fall at or below cross over values. Feel
these conditions may help to produce a window of IFR at both
MPV/SLK around sunrise this morning, so have tempo IFR btwn
09z-11/12z. Low level winds develop at 10 to 15 knots toward
12z, so any IFR should quickly improve. Otherwise, rest of our
taf sites stay VFR for the next 12 to 24 hours with increasing
east/northeast winds at 10 to 15 knot with localized gusts at
RUT of 20 to 25 knots possible.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Likely RA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance FZRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy easterly winds today, with gusts up to 30 mph possible,
will lead to elevated fire weather concerns across southern
Vermont today. Despite recent rain last week, dry conditions
have persisted in southern Vermont. Thus while relative humidity
values will only be 40-50%, fire weather concerns and fire
spread will be heightened with the forecasted near critical wind
gusts. Wetting rain from a coastal low will overspread the
southern portions of the area by this evening which will
mitigate the fire weather concerns heading into next week.
Breezy easterly winds will continue with the onset of rain, in
particular in the nearby western valleys of the southern Greens
from downsloping. Fire weather concerns will decrease with the
wetting rain tonight into Monday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BTV