443
FXUS61 KBTV 081134
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
734 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 307 AM EDT Sunday...
Added fog to the forecast as some patchy dense fog has developed
with warm air and rain on snow pack.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 307 AM EDT Sunday...
1. Lingering showers exit this morning.
2. Gusty winds today and tomorrow.
3. Localized ice jam and open water flooding possible this
week.
4. After a stretch of spring-like weather, more widespread
precipitation is expected to arrive for the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 723 AM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A couple rounds of showers will move through during the
rest of the night and early this morning. These should be relatively
quick moving and on the lighter side, so only 0.1-0.2 inches are
expected in the areas that receive the most rain. By mid morning,
dry conditions will prevail. After the showers move out, skies
should gradually clear and it should be sunny for most areas by late
afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A tight pressure gradient will remain through tomorrow,
causing continued windy conditions. Peak gusts today will generally
be between 15-25 mph, though gusts up to 35 mph are expected across
northern New York. A southwesterly low level jet passes through
tomorrow, with the peak magnitude over northern New York. Gusts in
the 35-45 mph range are possible in the St. Lawrence Valley due to
channeling, while they should generally be between 20-35 mph
elsewhere. There could be a couple isolated power outages Monday in
the areas that see the strongest winds.
KEY MESSAGE 3: As expected, little ice break up occurred on major
rivers today and no ice jams were observed. Less rainfall than
expected and colder temperatures across Vermont caused rivers to
stay a bit lower than forecast, and that trend should continue into
the day today. However, sustained warm weather into Wednesday,
though thankfully without any additional precipitation, is expected
to cause more widespread ice breakup to start to occur, and there is
the potential for a few ice jams to form. Associated ice jam
flooding is possible. While localized field flooding is possible
through Tuesday, significant flooding is not expected due to a lack
of precipitation accompanying the snowmelt. The next chance for
river flooding comes Wednesday into Thursday. However, the details
are uncertain due to uncertainty in storm track. There will be a
sharp temperature gradient situated across the region, so a
northerly track would lead to warm rain and significant snowmelt,
and a southerly track would lead to mixed precipitation and little
snowmelt. In the former scenario, minor to moderate flooding would
be possible, mostly in the typical spots on the Otter Creek, and on
the Mad, Ausable and Winooski Rivers. A southerly storm track would
lead to mixed precipitation and little flooding. In either scenario,
widespread major flooding is not expected.
KEY MESSAGE 4: A low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes will
track northeastward towards the middle of next week, bringing
widespread precipitation chances to the region Wednesday into
Thursday. There is still a lot of uncertainty in regards to
precipitation type at this point, both due to temperatures and low
track. The current forecast supports mostly rain, with a brief
transition to snow during the day Thursday as a cold front pushes
across the region, although there is some guidance that supports the
possibility of a wintry mix and some freezing rain. At this point
uncertainties still exist, as small differences in thermal profiles
and surface temperature can play a large role in the precipitation
type, but is something to monitor over the next few days as we get
closer. After the cold front Thursday, temperatures for the end of
the week look to trend closer to seasonal normals for early March,
with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Gusts in the 20 kt range continue out of
the south. Rain has ended across our area. Low level wind shear
remains prevalent as winds at 2000 ft agl range between 45-55
knots out of the southwest. The main axis of the front will
shift east about 10z-16z. It will correspond with a trend to
southwest winds, a decrease in LLWS, and one last round of light
rain showers. However, after 16z, improving conditions are
expected for all terminals. Winds will remain elevated, towards
7-13 knots sustained with gusts 16-21 knots, locally increasing
towards 30 knots at KMSS about 22z Sunday.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance RA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA,
Definite SN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN, Likely
RA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
3/7 High Temperature
Massena (MSS) Record High: 60|1973 - Broken 61
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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