543
FXUS61 KBTV 232330
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
630 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 230 PM EST Friday...
The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning
for portions of New York and central and southern Vermont as
confidence in those areas receiving at least 7 inches of snow has
increased. Further north, where there still remains uncertainty in
snow amounts, the Winter Storm Watch remains in effect.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 PM EST Friday...
1. Dangerously cold conditions are expected tonight through Saturday
morning, with wind chills of -20F to -40F expected. Risk of
hypothermia and frostbite is unusually high due to the extreme
nature of the cold, especially for vulnerable populations and anyone
venturing outdoors without proper cold weather gear.
2. Several inches of moderate to heavy snow is looking likely for
our region late Sunday through Monday. Travel will become hazardous,
with the bulk of the snow occurring Sunday evening into Monday
morning. Both the morning evening commutes on Monday will be
impacted.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM EST Friday...
.KEY MESSAGE 1: Very dangerously cold conditions are expected
tonight and Saturday, with wind chills of -20F to -40F areawide.
Therefore, the Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect from 7 pm
Friday to 1 pm Saturday. This will be the coldest airmass of the
season so far, and given the extreme nature of the cold, the risk of
hypothermia and frostbite will be unusually high. This is especially
true for vulnerable populations and anyone venturing outdoors
without proper cold weather gear.
A cold front lies poised just to our north this afternoon, and it
will move through later today into the evening, ushering in a much
colder arctic airmass in its wake. There hasn`t been much change to
the forecast; temperatures will fall sharply this evening and
overnight. Winds will remain gusty, as well; low level lapse rates
will steepen under cold air advection, keeping us well mixed into
the overnight hours. Today`s gusts around 30 mph will continue into
the evening then wane through the latter half of the night as the
strongest winds exit to the east. But with lows to be -5F to -20F,
even relatively light winds will be enough to result in brutally
cold wind chills. As such, wind chill are still expected to be -20F
to -40F, with the most extreme conditions in the northern
Adirondacks and the Northeast Kingdom. We are urging people to stay
indoors if possible, especially vulnerable populations like the
elderly and children. If you must be outdoors, please make sure to
wear plenty of warm gear, including gloves or mittens and a hat. Any
exposed skin will be susceptible to frostbite in just a few minutes.
And don`t forget about your pets; bring them inside if at all
possible.
The cold continues well into Saturday morning, but winds will
continue to subside through the day. We should see increasing
sunshine, as well. Still, wind chills will remain well below zero
through the afternoon as daytime ambient temperatures will remain in
the -5F to +5F range. Proper precautions still need to be taken even
during the afternoon. Saturday night will be very cold once again,
but with little wind. Lows are still expected to range from around
0F to around -20F. There is still some uncertainty in exactly which
locations will be coldest, however, as high clouds will be
increasing overnight, limiting radiational cooling. Still,
additional cold weather headlines may be needed.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Long story short, confidence in at least several
inches of snow across our entire forecast area continues to
increase. The 12z model guidance has continued with the trend toward
higher snowfall totals, particularly in central/southern VT and
portions of NY. Therefore, the Watch has been upgraded to a Winter
Storm Warning for Essex Co, NY and Addison, Washington, Orange,
Rutland, and Windsor Co in VT. Snowfall amounts more than 7 inches
are pretty darn certain in these areas. Further north, it`s still a
touch more questionable, which is why the Winter Storm Watch remains
in effect.
Overall, there hasn`t been a significant change in the expected
weather pattern. An upper trough will dig into the Great Lakes on
Sunday, then swinging eastward into the Northeast CONUS on Monday.
This will allow a coastal low to deepen as it lifts northeast Sunday
into Sunday night, eventually moving south of Cape Cod and out
toward the open Atlantic. As noted by previous forecasters, deep
moisture will be drawn northward into New England. We continue to
see strong frontogenesis 700-850 mb progged to lift into southern
New England, skirting across central/southern VT Sunday night before
quickly moving east Monday. With ample forcing provided by the
strengthening coastal low and the incoming upper trough, the deep
moisture and temperatures remaining below 0C through the column
continue to point toward a prolonged period of steady moderate to
heavy snow, particularly Sunday night into early Monday. The snow
will slowly wind down on Monday, though there is still some model
differences in how long it ultimately sticks around. An inverted
trough extending northwest from the coastal low into our region will
help to keep snow going longer, but models disagree on the strength
and duration of this feature. Regardless, we`ll probably see some
wrap around snow showers in the northern mountains for a period of
time after the main snow ends as flow turns to the north/northwest.
All of this to say, we remain on track for much of the region to
receive several inches of snow. Given the strength of the high to
our north, there could be a fairly tight cutoff on the northern edge
of the precipitation shield. That being said, the chance of even our
far northern zones seeing 4+ inches remains high, at 70-85%. This
drops to 50-65% for 7+ inches along the international border, while
central/southern VT into the southern Adirondacks indicate 80-90%
chance of seeing warning criteria snow. With that in mind, we did
upgrade the watch to a warning for those more southern areas with
higher certainty. Further north, we`ll allow more time for the
models to come to a consensus on how far the 7+ inch line goes.
While there`s still some time for things to change somewhat, we feel
fairly confident that the warning areas will see a general 9-16
inches of snow, with locally higher amounts in the higher terrain.
Further north, it`ll be somewhere 5-12 inches depending on your
location. We wouldn`t be surprised to see some higher totals should
some mesobanding set up on the northwest side of the coastal low,
but that remains to be seen. Regardless, snow ratios will be around
20:1, making for a light, fluffy snow. So impacts will mainly be
travel related, as roads will be snow covered and visibility could
be reduced, especially given the fluffiness of the snow. While
isolated trees or branches down can`t be totally ruled out, the snow
just isn`t going to be the wet, heavy type that favors more utility-
based impacts.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions generally prevail across
the region, with some scattered snow showers bringing periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions. Models are indicating snow showers should
be moving out of our area by about 02z. Gusty winds continue,
generally out of the west/northwest. Gusts diminishing towards
the morning. Some MVFR ceilings are lingering, mostly at
KSLK/KEFK/KMPV but all terminals are expected to return back to
VFR by early morning.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Definite SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Definite
SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record low maximum temperatures are possible on Saturday; below
are the current records:
KBTV (Burlington area): -4 in 1907
KPBG (Plattsburgh area): 0 in 1976
KSLK (Saranac Lake area): -10 in 1936
KMSS (Massena): -5 in 2004
KMPV (Montpelier): 0 in 2004
SJBV1 (St. Johnsbury): -3 in 1907
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for VTZ001>011-
016>021.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Monday
night for VTZ001>007-016-017.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
VTZ008>011-018>021.
NY...Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for NYZ026>031-
034-035-087.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Monday
night for NYZ026>031-087.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
NYZ034-035.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hastings
AVIATION...Kremer/Neiles
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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