948
FXUS61 KBTV 021850
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
150 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 149 PM EST Monday...
Brief mixed precipitation is possible late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning, mainly across central/southern Vermont.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 149 PM EST Monday...
1. A light snowfall is likely across much of the area late
Tuesday afternoon through the early overnight, possibly ending as a
brief period of mixed precipitation and/or drizzle/freezing drizzle
until sunrise Wednesday.
2. Confidence in widespread precipitation for the end of the
week continues to increase, along with the potential for wintry mix
and rain.
3. Anomalously warm temperatures, rain, and snowmelt likely for
the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 149 PM EST Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: After high pressure exits the region tonight into
Tuesday morning, a weak wave of low pressure will lift a remnant
warm front from the Ohio Valley across the Mid-Atlantic states and
central/southern portions of New England Tuesday afternoon and
evening. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, the track and
timing of precipitation has been pretty consistent from model run to
run, but where uncertainly remains is how far north a warm layer
aloft will track. Currently consensus points to the warm nose moving
as far north as central Rutland/Windsor counties which will support
a brief period of mixed precipitation from 03-09Z Wednesday where
snow, freezing rain/drizzle are the likely ptypes. To the north, a
wet snow will generally be the dominant ptype, but a growing dry
slot in the DGZ early Wednesday morning could support northern areas
finishing as spotty drizzle and/or freezing drizzle as well.
In general, this looks to be mainly a nuisance event with
isothermal low level profiles supporting a wet (6-8:1) light snow of
a dusting to 2", and some very light icing across Rutland/Windsor
counties, mainly on elevated surfaces. Travel may be impacted
overnight, but it should be noted that road surface temperature
forecasts remain above freezing through much of the event which
should limit impacts as well.
KEY MESSAGE 2: There remains no significant changes in the forecast for
late this week, with continued confidence in chances for widespread
precipitation both Thursday into Friday. Model guidance is in good
agreement that a surface low will tack through the Ohio Valley and
approach our region by late Thursday. The concern remains to be
precipitation type. Most areas in the northern portions of the area
should start off as mainly snow, but light easterly flow from an
area of high pressure north of Maine would keep cold air locked in
place east of the Greens and perhaps into portions of the Champlain
Valley and the the northern St. Lawrence Valley. Modest 850mb
southerly flow will advect warm air overtop of the cold air
locked at the surface, resulting in a period of wintry mix, with
freezing rain in the aforementioned areas. Cold air will likely
hang on longer than the models have initialized, which bodes
some confidence in a period of wintry mix over prevailing rain,
and perhaps a longer period of snow east of the Greens.
Furthermore, there is increasing confidence in cold air damming
developing as the Thursday system arrives. The best chance for
any precipitation will be south of US- 4, but most of the region
should see some shower activity. Subtle changes to the Highs
position, and low track will have significant impacts to the
precipitation type. Please be sure to follow future forecast
updates, especially if you will be traveling later Thursday into
Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The end of week surface low will wash out along a
stalled boundary to the south of the region Friday as it runs into
the high. This will set up our weather for the weekend with
lingering moisture in the warm sector of an approaching shortwave
trough from the northern Plains. Lingering moisture in the warm
sector should remain aloft with continued south/southwesterly flow,
however, cold air damming will remain with our high locked over the
Canadian Maritimes, and coupled with diurnal cooling, continued
shower chances Friday night into Saturday cannot be ruled out. The
ptype remains uncertain, but with the aforementioned factors, a
light wintry mix with freezing drizzle is possible into Saturday
morning. The Plains shortwave will approach the area Saturday with a
tightening pressure gradient blocked against the Greens with
prevailing CAD. As a result, Saturday looks to be fairly breezy with
strong waa and a 60-80kt 850mb jet overhead. A cold front looks to
pass through sometime late Saturday with widespread rain expected.
Current ensemble PWATs are nearing 1" areawide with the highest
amounts across the St. Lawrence Valley. There is still considerable
model spread with shower coverage and intensity, so be sure to
continue to monitor the forecast, especially if planning any
recreational activities with the warmer weather.
Regardless of the above uncertainty, it does still look like we
should see much warmer temperatures for the weekend with highs
surging into the 50s, with low to mid 40s for mountain summits. Lows
will remain above freezing through the weekend. Total rainfall
doesn`t look overly concerning at this point, though rainfall with
snowmelt will result in runoff into area rivers. An initial perusal
of potential thawing degree hours for Friday through Sunday shows a
range of 500 to 800 hours, which could be enough to cause some river
ice movement. While widespread river ice breakup isn`t expected,
we`ll continue to monitor trends moving forward. Near normal
temperatures and continued shower chances will extend into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will continue through the entire
TAF period with high pressure overhead and clear skies persisting.
Winds will generally be light (under 10 knots) with mostly southerly
winds in the wider valleys, and variable wind directions in the
mountain sites. Winds will trend towards calm overnight, before
becoming predominately southerly by tomorrow morning. Wind gusts
will increase towards 20 knots in the Champlain Valley with south to
north from channeled flow after sunrise tomorrow. Mid to high clouds
will also increase from south to north by the end of the TAF
period.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA, Slight chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Slight
chance SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA,
Likely FZRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
FZRA, Chance SN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance FZRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
FZRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lahiff
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Lahiff
AVIATION...Danzig
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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