148
FXUS61 KBTV 020623
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
123 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Brisk conditions will continue this morning with cold apparent
temperatures below zero degrees for most locations. A few snow
showers will continue mainly for upslope areas over the next few
days with a weak system moving through this weekend bringing some
light snow accumulations. Unseasonably cool temperatures are
expected to trend back towards seasonal averages by the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 122 AM EST Friday...After a bitterly cold morning with
temperatures ranging from -15 to 10 F, temperatures will struggle to
reach any higher than the teens and lower 20s today. Winds will be
much milder today than yesterday, however, so wind chills won`t feel
quite as sharp. After lake enhanced showers in St. Lawrence and
Franklin counties of New York abate this morning, today will be
mostly dry outside of occasional afternoon upslope snow showers
in the mountains due to increasing saturation projected in
model soundings and a passing trough shifting our flow back out
of the northwest. These conditions and shower chances persist
into the overnight tonight as well with temperatures falling
into the single digits above and below zero.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 122 AM EST Friday...A shortwave trough will approach
Saturday/Saturday night bringing some snow showers to northern New
York and Vermont. Current timing of the wave supports best chances
overnight into early Sunday, perhaps 10-40% chances of measurable
precipitation. This wave is projected to be quite weak and quick-
moving across all models pointing to only token amounts of snow,
generally less a half an inch being favored. Temperatures will
remain colder than average with highs likely only in the teens to
mid 20s and overnight lows in the single digits around zero.
Another trough and weaker variety cold front will move through the
region on Sunday. Have generally 10-40% PoPs for this period as
well. Aside for the Connecticut River Valley, intervals of snow
showers or flurries are possible during the day on Sunday.
Otherwise, it`ll be cold on Sunday with highs in the teens to mid
20s yet again.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 143 PM EST Thursday...
* Bitterly cold Sunday night - Monday morning with temperatures
and wind chills dropping back below zero.
* Becoming much milder on Tuesday, with a thaw likely beginning
by Wednesday.
Another trough and weaker variety cold front will move through
the region on Sunday. Have noted PoPs might be a little low
given favorable thermal profiles for snow production even with
meager moisture, especially with terrain influences/upslope
flow. So aside for the Upper Valley, I think at some intervals
during the day on Sunday we could see flurries and snow showers
just about anywhere. Otherwise, the main story will be another
round of cold weather, which will be modulated by any fresh snow
cover that would help temperatures fall even further overnight.
While chances are low that any locations meet Cold Weather
Advisory threshold, another round of temperatures well below
zero in most locations could be impactful, especially with any
light wind producing even lower feels-like temperatures. NBM
probabilities support lower temperatures than what the
deterministic guidance would indicate, so given potentially a
good radiational cooling scenario, would prepare for low
temperatures between about -10 and -19 as a reasonable "worst"
case scenario.
Prior to a well-anticipated thaw, we could see one more light
snowfall Monday night into Tuesday associated with thermal
advection and a weak wave of low pressure. With lack of strong
forcing mechanism indicated at this time, probabilities of just
an inch of new snow are roughly the same as precipitation
chances, which are fairly terrain influenced and in the 25-50%
range.
Then there is good model agreement on a storm track shifting
back to our west while ridging establishes itself near Bermuda,
leading to milder air being drawn into the northeastern US
pretty quickly. Snow levels by Wednesday currently appear to be
approach summit level, peaking around 3000-3500 feet, as
precipitation becomes likely associated with a period of rich
moisture and broad lift. There could be a period of mixed
precipitation in some areas at the start Wednesday given the
cold air mass being eroded, but the potential is relatively
low/insignificant compared to the recent ice storm. Without a
strong jet stream, it still doesn`t look like a particularly
noteworthy/impactful storm. However, in the context of the
persistent cold, we will obviously thaw out a bit. As we are in
January, despite the pattern change it looks like there will be
enough cold air around such that behind the midweek rain,
temperatures in the higher terrain should still support chances
for snow while valleys continue to have some freeze/thaw cycles.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Current radar is showing light snow
shower activity developing across the southern SLV into parts of
the Adirondacks with vis down to 4SM at OGS. Expect light snow
with prevailing vis btwn 3-5SM at SLK with intervals of IFR vis
in the 1.5 to 2.5SM range between 07z-11z this morning. Also, a
few snow showers with intervals of MVFR vis/cigs are possible at
MPV/EFK and MSS, while VFR conditions prevail at PBG/BTV and
RUT. Winds are light and variable this morning, but shift to the
west/northwest at 3 to 7 knots on Friday, behind a weak sfc
trough.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: MVFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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