756
FXUS61 KBTV 110623
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
223 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 737 PM EDT Friday...
Have increased PoPs slightly based on current radar and
observations.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 254 PM EDT Friday...
1. A frontal system is beginning to move into the region this
afternoon with widespread wetting rain expected through tonight.
Lingering isolated upslope showers will be possible Saturday across
the higher terrain with cooler, breezy conditions.
2. A warming trend will start late this weekend with another
round of widespread rain Sunday into Monday. Gusty winds are
possible.
3. Unsettled with above normal temperatures expected through
the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 254 PM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front is currently pushing into the region from
eastern Ontario, as the frontal axis stretches from Montreal to
Ottawa, and southwest to Buffalo. This front will continue to push
east through this afternoon/evening reaching Vermont between 6-8 PM.
This system is NOT expected to be a soaker, but the forecast does
denote some beneficial wetting rainfall between 0.1-0.3" across the
region, helping to alleviate dry fine fuels, and reducing fire
weather concerns into the weekend. Higher amounts between 0.25-0.4"
are expected near the International Border with some mountain
summits approaching 0.5". Hi-Res CAMs (like the HRRR) denote an area
of enhanced precipitation potential across the southern Champlain
Valley and western Rutland County. SBCAPE will only be around 150-
200J/kg, but with the presence of the front, this may be enough to
support isolated convective elements with some locally higher
precipitation amounts. This system track does favor potential
shadowing in the northern Champlain Valley and Windsor County where
only 0.1-0.2" of rain is expected, less than surrounding areas.
The front continues to move east tonight with precipitation tapering
off for most after midnight tonight as colder drier air from the
northwest filters in. Across the Northeast Kingdom early Saturday
morning, northwest flow may keep some low level moisture around as
the mid level dry out, leading to some low-topped rain/snow showers.
Snow accumulations will be minimal if any with ground temperatures
above freezing. Otherwise, Saturday will be on the chilly side, but
mainly sunny side, with northwest caa and breezy conditions with
highs in the low to mid 40s. Some diurnally driven isolated
rain/snow showers aided by northwest flow will be possible in the
higher terrain Saturday afternoon, but impacts will be minimal if
any. High pressure builds in Saturday night with overnight lows in
the mid to upper 20s in the higher terrain, and low 30s in the wider
valleys.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures will begin a warming trend heading into
next week as our flow becomes south dominant with our high sliding
east. A digging long wave trough will set the stage for unsettled
weather heading into next week, with the first of several rounds of
precipitation arriving late Sunday into Monday. A warm front will
lift north late Sunday with increasing precipitation chances across
northern New York and into Vermont by Sunday night. A few tenths of
inch of rain will be possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night,
with higher amounts in the northern St. Lawrence Valley and northern
Greens. The associated surface low looks to slide east, with some
continued uncertainty in its exact track. Models continue to wobble
between a center track over Montreal and a track along the northern
fringes of the North Country. This has large implications for
Monday. Expectations are that a sharp temperature and precipitation
cutoff will be associated with the system, as it will follow a
positive tilted axis as the departing weekend high will stall to the
southeast. Areas across the International Border could see rounds of
showers through the day Monday in the upper 50s to low 60s, whereas
areas south Chittenden County in Vermont could see less rain overall
and temperatures into the mid to upper 60s. The position of the
system track will be key for this. The current forecast calls for
half an inch across much of northern New York and northern Vermont,
with 0.1 to a quarter inch of rain for the rest of Vermont and the
Champlain Valley through Monday afternoon.
The main impact from this system will a strong 60-80 mph 850mb low
level jet. It is uncertain how the mixing profiles will set up with
the system, as the core of the jet will be colocated with the main
precipitation shield along the International Border. A low level
inversion should allow for at least some gusty winds up to 25-35 mph
in the northern Champlain Valley and northern downslope regions of
the Adirondacks along the US-11 corridor. This will be closely
watched as stronger winds near Wind Advisory levels cannot be ruled
out should the mixing potential increase, especially if the
precipitation shield trends north, or areas see breaks in the rain.
For now, mixing is thought to be tempered with the ongoing
precipitation with lower winds.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The large scale pattern indicates building mid/upper lvl
heights acrs the Eastern CONUS, while low level boundary remains
draped near the International Border. Fast westerly flow aloft
prevails acrs our central/northern cwa for most of next week, with
warm air to our south and cooler air north. Position and movement of
this boundary wl have significant impacts on temps and precip fields
through the middle of next week. ECMWF/GFS and CMC show the warmest
925mb to 850mb temps on Weds with progged 925mb temps btwn 15-18C,
which support highs well into the 70s with maybe a few valley
locations near 80F. NBM still suggests a large spread on Weds with
25th percentile high temp of 65F and 75th percentile of 79F, while
the mean is 71F for BTV.
Next question wl be areal coverage of clouds and potential for
precip, as latest GFS shows building sfc based CAPE values in the
250-700 J/kg range. The highest probability of thunder currently
looks to be on Weds aftn, given sfc heating and moisture. The latest
WPC forecast does indicate chc to likely pops everyday in the
extended forecast, but not expecting a complete washout as precip
looks to be convective and scattered in nature. In addition to the
very warm temps on Weds, gusty south/southwest winds develop as
925mb to 850mb jet increases to 35 to 50 knots. Warmer temps should
result in deeper mixing profiles on Weds. Slightly cooler and drier
wx returns for Thurs, behind weak boundary.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Variable flight conditions currently exist
across the region, ranging from LIFR to VFR, as a cold front
continues to push across the region. Some rain showers will continue
to be possible over the next few hours, with drier conditions
quickly moving in behind the boundary. Ceilings are expected to
improve over the next few hours, with all terminals trending towards
VFR by 12Z, with the exception of KEFK and KSLK where MVFR may
linger longer to about 15Z or so. Winds continue to be
north/northwesterly, with some increasing gusts between 15 to 25
knots throughout the afternoon. Winds look to trend more light and
variable after 00Z as high pressure continues to build over the
region.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Taber
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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