000
FXUS61 KBTV 201416
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1016 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is moving into the North Country, with several
days of pleasant weather expected. Cool nights and warm days
are expected, with seasonal fog in the river valleys likely the
next several days as well. A gradual warming trend is expected
throughout the rest of this week. Some moisture will lift north
Saturday evening, but some uncertainty remains on how far north
precipitation lifts into southern and central Vermont. At the
very least, there will be increasing cloud cover heading into
Sunday and a halt to the warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1011 AM EDT Wednesday...No significant changes were made
to the forecast, just a few small adjustments to match the
recent satellite trends and observations. Generally clear skies
across the region this morning, although some cloud cover
continues to linger across much of the Northeast Kingdom. With
the sunshine and temperatures current in the 50s to low 60s, it
should be a enjoyable September day.

Previous Discussion...Clouds that have been hanging tough for
the last 24 hours have finally begun to dissipate more in earnest.
Despite some mixing, indicated by the fast 30 to 40 knots on our
mountains right now, fog has developed across sheltered
locations of the Adirondacks and parts of south-central Vermont.
Fog should dissipate fairly quickly, and then high pressure
takes control the next several days. Temperatures will generally
be in the 60s today with light winds.

Good radiational cooling conditions are expected. Temperatures are
forecast to fall into the 40s for the broader valleys with mid to
upper 30s across cold hollows. Coldest will be perennial cold spot,
Saranac Lake, NY at 35. Though based on the Adirondack Airport
observation reaching 34, it is likely to at least somewhat
lower tonight. Localized patchy frost will be possible in
sheltered hollows in the Adirondacks. Also expecting some fog
across much of the area. Thursday afternoon will be a repeat of
today, just 2 to 3 degrees warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 308 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure and ridging will plant
itself overhead for the late week providing sunny, clear skies and
highs Friday in the lower 70s, a touch above average. Temperatures
Thursday night will fall dramatically thanks to radiational cooling
under the clear skies with lows in the 40s for most but some colder
spots in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom could reach into the
30s. We`ll need to monitor these areas for potential frost
headlines. We continue to expect fog development in the favored
areas like river valleys as temps drop to meet dew points.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 308 AM EDT Wednesday...Models continue to disagree on the
movement and speed of a system and associated moisture plume along
the East Coast. The Canadian model is the biggest proponent of
widespread rain across the forecast area, while the ECMWF and GFS
seem to just brush southern zones of our forecast area on the runs
that show showers reaching Vermont. Have 25-35% chance of rain,
mainly for southern Vermont, during the weekend, then next week
uncertainty continues. Continue 15-25% chance rain into the next
week due to a digging trough that could bring additional showers.
High temperatures will be seasonable in the mid-60s to lower 70s for
most while lows drop only to the upper 40s - upper 50s due to the
increased cloud cover associated with the unsettled weather.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Mostly VFR at present, with some fog at
KSLK and lingering MVFR ceilings near KEFK. All sites will trend
VFR by about 14z and continue to clear with mainly west-
northwest to northwest winds 4 to 8 knots sustained. Winds trend
calm after sunset with skies remaining clear. Fog is likely at
favored terminals KSLK, KMPV, and KEFK as early as 03-04z, but
more likely by 05z-06z.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCXX radar will be down for radome repairs, with a return to
service around September 21st.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV