000
FXUS61 KBTV 200759
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
359 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will produce some clouds today, along with a
spot snow shower or sprinkle with temperatures warming into the
upper 30s to mid 40s. A brisk south to southwest wind of 10 to
20 mph will develop with localized higher gusts possible.
Another weak disturbance will produce better chances for valley
rain and mountain snow showers on Tuesday with seasonable
temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Monday...Water vapor and upper air analysis
indicates weakening mid/upper lvl trof acrs the eastern CONUS
with developing fast west to east flow aloft. Surface analysis
places weak sfc warm frnt over northern NY this morning, which
wl lift north of our cwa by this aftn, along with better 850 to
500mb moisture and 850 to 700mb lift from advection. Have minor
pops acrs the NEK early this morning, but given very dry sfc
dwpts, limited precip is actually reaching the ground per obs.
Temps under modest llvl waa should reach the upper 30s to mid
40s this aftn, supported by progged 925mb temps in the -2C to 0C
range, while 850mb temps hold near -6C. Have utilized the mtn
max temp tool to place cooler temps at the summits with values
in the upper 20s to lower 30s, its that time of year for sharp
valley to summit temp gradients and steeper low level lapse
rates. Speaking of mixing, soundings show good mixing thru 850mb
this aftn, so given wind profiles a few gusts in the aligned
s/sw to n/ne valleys wl see gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range.
Monday night is relative quiet with temps cooling back into the
20s, except near 30F locally here in the CPV due to southerly
flow.

On Tues, additional 850 to 500mb moisture advects along the
international border as a weak sfc cold frnt tries to sink
south. The moisture/dynamics with this scenario is relatively
modest, given the lack of advection and limited moisture
profiles. Have mention high chc/low likely in the northern Dacks
to central/northern Greens with schc/chc in the valleys and
very minimal pops acrs southern VT zns. Thermal profiles support
mostly rain in the valleys with snow levels starting around
1000 feet, but lifting to 2500-3000 feet during the aftn hours
as progged 925mb temps warm to near 0C. Any qpf wl be light and
generally confined to the trrn with snowfall accumulations of an
inch or two possible. Temps once again wl display a sharp
elevation dependent gradient from upper 20s to mid 30s summits
to upper 30s to mid 40s valleys on Tues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 359 AM EDT Monday...Showers will be winding down Tuesday
night, and conditions will then remain dry through Wednesday as
surface and upper level ridging build into our area.
Temperatures will be very close to seasonal normals with lows in
the 20s to lower 30s, and highs ranging through the 40s. Will
have increasing clouds and chance for showers from the west late
in the day Wednesday as a low pressure system lifts from the
Great Lakes region northeastward. Flow will become southerly on
Wednesday with warm air advection ahead of this system.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 359 AM EDT Monday...Increasing chances for showers on
Wednesday night as aforementioned low passes north of our region
and frontal system crosses our area. Precipitation will mainly
be rain showers Wednesday night as low temperatures hover in the
30s, some snow showers in the higher elevations where the
temperatures will be colder. There will be a brief break in
precipitation early Thursday morning, and then next system
approaches the area later Thursday afternoon brining additional
precipitation chances to the area as another low pressure system
passes to our north. High temperatures on Thursday will be
quite mild, generally ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s,
therefore mainly rain showers anticipated with this frontal
system. Models continue to indicate potential for a low pressure
system to track along the New England coast on Saturday, but
still lots of disagreement with the track of this low.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06z Tuesday...Mainly a wind taf for the next 12 to 24
hours with VFR conditions. A few light snow showers are possible
this morning, but given very dry sfc conditions and high clouds
bases, not expecting much other than a brief period of MVFR
possible at SLK/EFK. Otherwise, brisk southwest winds wl
increase btwn 14z-18z today with localized gusts in the 20 to 25
knot range with areas of turbulence and wind shear expected,
especially near higher trrn. Winds decrease this evening as VFR
conditions prevail.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Taber