211
FXUS61 KBTV 062340
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
740 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Fire weather concerns will continue tomorrow, especially in Vermont
where relative humidities will be the lowest. A slow moving cold
front passes through tomorrow afternoon and evening, bringing a
round of widespread showers and an end to the record heat. Frosts
and freezes are expected in many places Wednesday night through
Friday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday...Daily records have been broken again today,
and temperatures will still climb a little more during the rest of
the afternoon. However, 925 mb temperatures are slightly lower today
so highs will likely be a little below yesterday. At BTV, we are
running two degrees below yesterday at this time so the monthly
record of 86 will likely remain just out of reach. Boundary layer
winds will remain elevated tonight, so fog is unlikely in most
places. However, with increased dew points, it cannot be ruled out
in some of the protected valleys of eastern Vermont. A southerly low
level jet moves overhead tomorrow. A cold front will bring a line of
showers through the region form northwest to southeast, reaching the
St. Lawrence Valley in the morning and Vermont in the mid-afternoon.
Ahead of the front, efficient mixing will cause strong wind gusts
and low humidities. Gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range are expected in
most places, and relative humidities should drop into the 30s across
parts of Vermont, so fire weather concerns will continue. The front
will bring a widespread wetting rainfall, with totals over an inch
in places. The cold front will bring an end to the record heat and
while temperatures will remain above climatological normals tomorrow
night, it will begin to feel more like fall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday...High pressure builds down into the region
Wednesday and Wednesday night, bringing a day of strong cold air
advection. Northerly winds will gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range. A
few showers will linger in southern areas early Wednesday morning
but conditions will dry out quickly. Some advection will continue
during the night so it should prevent ideal radiational cooling, but
temperatures will still fall into the thirties for most places.
Widespread frost should occur in the protected areas outside the
immediate Champlain Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 247 PM EDT Monday...Low temperatures continue to be the most
noteworthy aspect of the weather in the Thursday-Friday timeframe as
a seasonably chilly air mass gradually exits the area. High pressure
will be above the 99th climatological percentile, as readings will
be in the range of 1033 to 1036 millibars. The highest pressure in
our region should occur roughly Thursday evening per ensemble mean
data. The latest forecast remains on track for near freezing
temperatures in much of the St. Lawrence Valley and central Vermont
Thursday morning where headlines will be needed in our frost/freeze
program. Given ideal radiational cooling conditions and the strong
high pressure system, Friday morning minimums have trended even
lower. In coordination with neighboring offices, we have lowered
temperatures closer to what the coldest, statistically-based models
indicate, suggesting a hard freeze may occur at most locations aside
from the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. Perennial cold spot at
the Adirondack Regional Airport will likely see a temperature in the
teens for the first time since April 18th.
Quiet weather and moderating temperatures still are on track for the
weekend, with near normal conditions. The details do diverge a bit
Sunday through Monday in a complex upper level pattern, leading to a
large spread in cloud cover guidance ranging from sunny to cloudy by
Monday. Some model camps show some kind of closed low near the
Carolinas lifting northward while others do not, such that a
rebuilding ridge to our west keeps us dry and mild. The latest full
ensemble dataset shows roughly equal chance of these scenarios.
However, since the closed low scenario does not guarantee rainfall
reaching our region, PoPs look reasonable at this time through
Monday, remaining 20% or less for a given 12 hour period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to continue
through the next 12 hours at all terminals with increased flow
aloft and a lesser chance at fog than nights prior. While Surface
flow tonight will largely be southerly and terrain-driven at 5
to 10 knots, aloft, a low-level jet will continue to support 30
knot winds, especially at MSS/SLK, and then Vermont terminals by
early tomorrow morning. A few pockets of LLWS and breezy
conditions could be possible with the winds aloft overnight,
but not enough confidence or spatial coverage to include in this
TAF.
A cold front will begin to enter the area from the west
early tomorrow morning which will begin to rapidly increase
winds ahead of it at all terminals. Southwesterly winds will
increase to near 25 knots from 12Z to 15Z at MSS/SLK, and 20 to
25 knots at all Vermont terminals by 18Z. Scattered to steady
precipitation arrives at MSS by 14Z, and beyond 20Z at the
Vermont terminals. Embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
beyond 18Z tomorrow with some instability associated with front.
There is a small chance (20-30%) of MVFR conditions associated
with the initial round of rain, but most terminals should see
prevailing VFR with low rainfall rates outside of any possible
thunderstorms. Higher confidence in MVFR or lower ceilings
exists at MSS near the end of the TAF period, as the cold front
arrives there first. Overall, ceilings will gradually lower as
the main front arrives by 00Z tomorrow.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Areas frost.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
The heat continues today and many records are in jeopardy.
Below are some of the daily records in jeopardy of being broken
(current forecast at or within 3 degrees of the record).
Record High Temperatures:
October 6:
KBTV: 82/1990 (Broken)
KMPV: 79/1990 (Broken)
KMSS: 81/2005 (Broken)
KSLK: 80/1946
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
October 6:
KBTV: 64/1937
October 7:
KBTV: 62/1947
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Danzig
CLIMATE...BTV
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