548
FXUS61 KBTV 112314
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
714 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The area will enjoy a comfortable night as we sit between an
upper low over Ontario and a coastal low over the Mid Atlantic.
Gusty winds will be likley tomorrow in southern Vermont as the
two systems interact with precipitation chances increasing
tomorrow night. In addition, localized downslope wind gusts up
to 35 mph will be possible on tomorrow night into Monday over
eastern Rutland County. Dry and cool conditions will continue
beyond Tuesday under cyclonic flow through the remainder of the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 252 PM EDT Saturday...A pleasant day today across the area
today will be flanked by deteriorating conditions by Sunday
afternoon, particularly in southern Vermont. The region today sits
between two flow regimes: a cyclonic upper low situated over the
Golden Horseshoe of Canada, and a developing coastal low over the
Mid-Atlanic. Brief ridging in between has led to a quiet and calming
day which should continue into the evening. Some mid to high level
clouds will increase from the south as the coastal low draw
northward, but will encounter a dry airmass ahead of it. Lows
tonight with light winds will be in the 30s for most places and in
the 40s in the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valley. Deeper moisture
will begin to intrude on the region from the south overnight as flow
switches to the east off the Atlantic.
Tomorrow will start off dry with slightly higher relative humidity
values, with increasing cloud cover, especially over southern
Vermont. Temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 60s, with
perhaps an hour or two in the upper 60s in the St. Lawrence Valley
where cloud cover will arrive later in the afternoon. The last few
model runs have increased confidence in most of southern Vermont
receiving beneficial rainfall with a sharp gradient in precipitation
amounts as one moves north towards the international border. Unlike
prior forecasts, the NAM has joined alongside the rest of the model
solutions showing increasing winds and rainfall. A strong 1030mb
anticyclone over northeastern New England will draw in much lower
dewpoints across the International Border and the St. Lawrence River
helping to create that sharp precipitation gradient. Additionally,
the Great Lakes upper low should be able to provide reinforcing
energy and stretching for frontogenesis as the coastal low evolves
and merges with the upper low.
The tightening gradient between the ridge and the 2 lows will serve
to create a strong low level jet which has better confidence in its
strength. Winds at 925mb will near 35-55 knots which should mix
efficiently to the surface. Probabilities of greater than 20 mph
gusts are firmly 70% or higher in Rutland and Windsor Counties and
near 50-60% in central Vermont. The highest gusts look to generally
be around noon tomorrow. Some dry air ahead of the low could lead to
some fire weather concerns tomorrow early afternoon even with
relative humidity values 40-50% in the forecast. An SPS for fire
weather concerns will be in effect from 8AM until 3PM for the higher
gusts and heightened fire weather concerns. Precipitation looks to
move in sometime Sunday night, however, initial radar returns will
likely fall as virga before the column fully saturates overnight.
Breezy conditions will continue tomorrow night as rain begins to
fall. Western downsloping off the southern Greens is expected up to
30 to 40 mph across Rutland County, with much lighter winds further
north away from the low level jet. Mountain summits could see gusts
up to 40 to 50 mph as they will be more exposed and higher receiving
the bulk of the low level jet winds. Some stabilization associated
with the rainfall and some mixed signals regarding a potential
inversion, could act as limitation to mixing the higher gusts to the
surface, but regardless it will be breezy with the rain Sunday night
into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 252 PM EDT Saturday...The bulk of the rainfall from the coastal
low will overspread the area Monday morning and early Monday
afternoon. The heaviest of the precipitation looks to remain south
of the I-89 corridor with more scattered showers to the north. Dry
air and stretching of the flow aloft, should limit the overall rain
amounts in northern Vermont with just a few hundreths to a tenth
expected. Mainly an overcast day with a few light showers can be
expected. Further south, precipitation totals have increased and
followed trends with up to an inch in far southern Vermont and
generally 0.5-0.75 inches in central and southern Vermont. With the
easterly flow, and froude numbers around 0.5, it is likely that
locations near the eastern slopes of the Greens (such as Killington
and Ludlow) will see slightly higher amounts from blocked flow.
Conversely, locations just west of the southern Greens (such as
Rutland) could see some shadowing effects with lesser amounts
possible. Probabilities of at least an inch in southern Vermont
range from 30-50%, with a 60-70% chance of seeing at least half
an inch.
Temperatures will hold steady in the 50s for the entire region
Monday, with a degree or two warmer to the north away from the
bulk of the precipitation. Monday night the precipitation will
shift east into New Hampshire with drying conditions following.
Overnight lows Monday night will be in the low to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 252 PM EDT Saturday...Upper level cyclonic flow, northerly
surface winds, and periodic weak, fast boundaries are overwhelmingly
favored for the extended period of the forecast Tuesday onward. The
biggest impacts related to this pattern are breezy to gusty surface
winds as the region is sandwiched between a large omega ridge over
the eastern Great Plains and deep longwave troughing extending from
eastern Canada down to the mid Atlantic latitudes. As surface
boundaries track through the region, northerly winds will likely,
and noticeably increase. Wednesday and Thursday currently are
projected by model consensus to have best chances of these wind
increases with gusts potentially ranging 20 to 35 mph at times.
Otherwise, cyclonic curvature will promote periodic showers,
especially along terrain. Unsurprisingly, temperatures are projected
to trend lower with highs in the dipping from the mid 50s/low 60s on
Tuesday into the 40s and low 50s for Wednesday, Thursday and
potentially Friday. Beyond Friday, there are some models indicating
potential for a more consolidate front to move towards the region
sometime early next week.
The persistent ridging axis over the Northeast is heavily
favored to retreat as low pressure tracks eastward through
northern Canada. Height falls along the offshore baroclinic zone
will help erode ridging allowing for a cold front to drop
southward through Vermont on Thursday. However, precipitation
chances are pretty much nil given the low`s position and
dessicated antecedent conditions. As such, winds will likely be
breezy on Thursday (gusts 15-20 mph for most spots and around 25
mph along the Champlain Valley) as flow turns northerly, and
have begun to trend to guidance that favors higher wind speeds.
This front will sharply cool temperatures Thursday night, lows
in the 30s for the Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont and 40s
elsewhere, and for Friday with highs generally in the 60s to
around 70 degrees. Chances for frost return to the Adirondacks
and northeastern Vermont. Temperatures will likely rebound
Saturday and Sunday back into the upper 60s to mid 70s as
southerly flow returns. Models do start increasing precipitation
chances late Saturday into Sunday as a weak system drops out of
Canada, but are split on actual track of the system. For now,
kept 15-30% chances for showers.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR is expected to persist through this
forecast period with BKN/OVC 200-250 CIGs moving in after 12Z
Sunday. Climatology hints again at the potential for fog or low
stratus to impact MPV and/or SLK, though like last night, winds
aloft are anticipated to keep any significant reductions in vis
or cig minimal to none. Main concern will be for increasing
winds and LLWS before SFC gusts increase at RUT around 11Z-14Z
Sunday. Otherwise, light and variable flow this evening and
overnight with speeds increasing again out of the southeast
after 12Z Sunday. Gradient flow will drive a northeast wind at
MSS through the period. Most terminals could see some gusts up
to 15-20 knots 15Z Sunday onwards with RUT experiencing some
downsloping winds increasing southeast to east winds 12Z
onwards. There is about a 20% chance to see a few gusts to
30kts at RUT, but that will depend on the stable layer at ridge
level and how much it can drive winds downslope.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Likely RA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance FZRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tomorrow, fire weather concerns will be heightened with maximum
easterly wind gusts up to 30 mph in southern Vermont. Despite recent
rain last week, dry conditions have persisted in southern Vermont.
Thus while relative humidity values will only be 40-50%, fire
weather concerns and fire spread will be heightened with the
forecasted near critical wind gusts. Wetting rain from a coastal low
will overspread the southern portions of the area by Sunday evening
which will mitigate the fire weather concerns heading into next
week. Breezy easterly winds will continue with the onset of rain, in
particular in the nearby western valleys of the southern Greens from
downsloping. Fire weather concerns will decrease with the wetting
rain Sunday evening.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Storm
FIRE WEATHER...BTV TEAM
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