018
FXUS61 KBTV 260018
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
818 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
After some much needed rainfall, some additional showers will
continue across the region tonight, with some lingering showers into
tomorrow. Drier and warmer weather return for the weekend, with high
pressure bringing a stretch of seasonable and pleasant weather to
the region next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 732 PM EDT Thursday...Precipitation is started to move
eastward as a defined line is moving into southern Vermont. As
such adjustments were needed to better outline where rain is
falling on radar. Kept area of greater than 75% chances longer
across southern/eastern Vermont for an hour longer while
removing thunderstorm chances which are not occurring.
Otherwise, the forecast is right on target and is verifying
well.
Previous discussion...As expected, precipitation has once again
become more widespread across the region once again after a
brief lull earlier this morning as surface low pressure crosses
the region. Rainfall amounts have ranged anywhere from a few
tenths of an inch to over 1.5 inches of rainfall, with the St.
Lawrence Valley and portions of northern Vermont on the lower
end with southern Vermont receiving the most so far. Rainfall
will gradually becoming more showery and taper off through the
evening. Some fog development and low stratus clouds will be
possible tonight with so much surface moisture available,
especially towards the pre-dawn hours. Temperatures overnight
tonight will be on the milder side with plentiful cloud cover
and showers, with lows only dropping into the 50s and low 60s.
Tomorrow will largely feature drier weather, although a few
lingering showers will be possible throughout the day. A weak cold
front will pass through the region, bringing some additional chances
for showers in the afternoon but any shower chances look largely
limited to the higher terrain and portions of the Northeast Kingdom.
High temperatures tomorrow will generally climb into the 70s, but
increased cloud cover and lingering precipitation could keep things
on the cooler side. Temperatures overnight Friday will be cooler
than the previous night, with lows dropping into 40s to lower 50s
with additional chances for fog development as high pressure shifts
toward the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 218 PM EDT Thursday...Seasonable and dry weather is expected
for the first half of the weekend as high pressure builds into the
region. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to
low 70s will make for a pleasant late September day. Overnight lows
will be in the mid 40s to almost 60 near Lake Champlain. The latest
guidance continues to keep any chances for showers associated with a
weak coastal low south of our forecast area Saturday night, but this
potential may need to be monitored if guidance trends further north.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 218 PM EDT Thursday...A complex mid/upper lvl pattern develops
acrs the eastern CONUS by early next week, but no hazardous or
impactful wx anticipated acrs our fa. A positively mid/upper lvl
trof wl deepen acrs central/eastern Canada into the northeast CONUS,
while any tropical system wl remain well to our south. The fast west
to northwest flow aloft wl deflect any tropical moisture from
advecting into our region, while strong 1035mb high pres located
over Hudson Bay noses toward northern New England. This wl result in
a dry cold frnt moving acrs our region on Tuesday with northerly
winds helping to drop temps below normal by mid to late week. As
high pres builds overhead, so areas of frost are possible, as
progged 850mb temps drop near 0C by 12z Weds. Before the cold frnt a
period of much above normal temps are expected Sunday thru Tues,
with progged 925mb temps in the 16-18C range. These values support
highs well into the 70s with a few lower 80s possible in the warmer
valley cities. Given our location between system for most of the
long term, the probability of measurable precip for days 4 thru 7 is
very low attm. Highs by midweek/late week are in the mid 50s to mid
60s with lows upper 20s to lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...A mix of VFR to VLIFR conditions are
occurring as broader area of rainfall begins to shift eastward.
It`s likely to see categorical improvements in CIGs/VIS before
latent moisture and westerly flow cause increasing low level
stratus/fog formation after 03Z. Conditions will begin to
improve by 12Z for most terminals as flow turns northwesterly
and drier airmass begins to erode low level moisture. SLK/BTV
could see upslope CIGs linger with MPV also being slow to erode
moisture. However, the trend through the day should be for
improvement Friday, especially after 18Z.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Boyd
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