164
FXUS61 KBTV 081958
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
358 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rainfall will occur tonight into Saturday as a low moves
up the New England coast. Lower rainfall rates should prevent any
flash flood threat, though some minor river flooding is possible
across parts of central and southern Vermont. After the low exits,
much drier and warmer conditions are expected to start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 356 PM EDT Thursday...Extremely blocked northwest flow has
allowed a low cloud deck to remain entrenched across the region
today. Combined with cold air advection, temperatures have only
risen a few degrees today, an impressively low diurnal range for the
time of year without steady precipitation. Areas of mist and drizzle
will continue this afternoon and they may increase in coverage
tonight as the effects of diurnal heating subside. With the
continued cloud cover and boundary layer flow, temperatures tonight
will only fall about as much as they rose today. A deepening low
will slowly track across southern New England and into the Gulf of
Maine, bringing widespread rainfall from tonight into Saturday. Some
minor flooding is possible in portions of southern and central
Vermont, and see the hydrological discussion at the bottom for more
details. Any elevated instability looks to remain across southern
and coastal New England, so it should only be a long duration of
light to moderate stratiform rain. With steady rain and northeast
flow, temperatures will struggle to move at all on Friday, so highs
should be in the 40s and 50s across the region, though temperatures
will not fall much Friday night. Temperatures look to be just too
warm for any snow to fall on the summits, though the storm is taking
what would be an ideal track in the winter.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 AM EDT Thursday...The wet pattern will continue Friday
night through much of the day on Saturday as the closed low will
continue to meander slowly eastward between two upper level ridges.
We could see a period of moderate rainfall Friday night as jet
dynamics will be favorable for a 6-12 hour period with good upper
level diffluence. By daybreak on Saturday, higher resolution
guidance is beginning to depict a dry slot, associated with the
mature mid-latitude cyclone, move across the North Country which may
bring a brief respite of rainfall. This should be short-lived as
moisture rotating around the upper level low will interact with
steepening lapse rates aloft which should allow additional rainfall
on the western periphery of the low pressure system. There is some
disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF on how fast rainfall comes to
an end Saturday night but it looks like rainfall will come to an end
by the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. As for flooding potential, the
MMEFS continues to depict a less than 50% chance for minor flooding
along the Otter Creek at Center Rutland and the east branch of the
Ausable River at Ausable Forks. Rainfall rates will be far too low
for any flash flood risk, but we could see some decent rises on area
rivers with some stream and creek flooding along the with potential
for some minor river flooding. With all that being said, the flood
potential isn`t high enough at this time to preclude the issuance of
a flood watch for southern Vermont or the Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Thursday...A significant pattern change will begin
to take place on Sunday. Another longwave blocking pattern looks to
establish itself across the United States next week but this time we
will be under the influence of deep layer ridging rather than low
pressure. This will finally bring a spell of dry weather to the
North Country starting Sunday and what could last through the middle
of next week. Rain chances will begin to return as we head into
Wednesday as the deep layer ridging slides off to the east with
either an open wave (GFS) or closed low (ECMWF/Canadian) replaces
the ridge. The speed of which the ridge slides eastward will largely
be dependent on the strength of the upper level feature. There are
some hints we could see some rumbles of thunder later this week as
we see temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s coupled with the
potential for diurnal convection under broad cyclonic flow. The
first real taste of summer seems to be at our doorstep and longer
range guidance suggests we could be in this pattern for several
weeks.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday... Low ceilings are entrenched across the region
and they should generally hold steady for the rest of the day.
Ceilings will gradually drop tonight and they should fall to IFR at
most terminals. Areas of mist and drizzle may also reduce
visibilities tonight, but fog is currently not expected. Light rain
will overspread the region from south to north tonight into the day
tomorrow. It should generally be light enough to not significantly
reduce visibilities, though heavier embedded showers could cause
periods of MVFR visibilities at times. Winds will generally be on
the lighter side and northerly/northeasterly.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A long duration rainfall event will occur from tonight into Saturday
evening, with the heaviest rain expected Friday night into the day
on Saturday. There will be a sharp rainfall gradient across the
region, with 1.5 to 3 inches expected from the Adirondacks eastward,
and a few tenths to around 1.5 inches expected across the rest of
northern New York. Overall, this is generally between the 50th and
75th percentiles of the GEFS/EPS/CAN ensemble. The region will
remain on the northwest side of the storm and any elevated
instability is expected to remain to the south. Therefore, with only
stratiform rainfall and PWATs not excessively high, rainfall rates
are expected to be too low to cause any flash flooding. However,
across parts of central and southern Vermont, some minor river
flooding is possible. This is due to the high antecedent streamflows
in those areas combining with the anticipated rainfall. Even still,
the lighter rainfall rates will be a limiting factor on the river
flooding as well. Elsewhere, there will be river rises but they
should remain around and below bankfull.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening for
     VTZ010-011-019>021.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Myskowski
HYDROLOGY...Myskowski