485
FXUS61 KBTV 251150
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
650 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 115 AM EST Sunday...No significant changes were made to
the forecast. Cold Weather Advisory will end this morning, but
remain cold. Probabilistic data and a heavy mesoscale band
suggest that snowfall amounts may approach 2 feet up through the
spine of the southern Greens in Vermont, and that is being
incorporated into the latest forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 115 AM EST Sunday...
1. Sub-zero temperatures will conclude, but temperatures will
remain plenty cold this afternoon with single digits to lower
10s.
2. A long duration, widespread moderate snow with a period of
heavy snow in southern Vermont will produce 8-16 inches across
the region and 13-19 inches in southeastern slopes of the
Adirondacks and south-central Vermont. Localized snowfall totals
up to 2 feet are possible in the southern Greens. Hazardous
travel for both Monday commutes is expected.
3. Below normal temperatures are expected to continue across the
region next week, with periods of isolated to scattered snow showers
possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 115 AM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Very cold weather has settled with radiational cool
beneath strong 1040mb high. High clouds are beginning to thicken,
and this will slow or reverse the rate of cooling. Everyone is below
zero this morning, and cool air will remain relatively locked in as
east to northeast flow and cloud cover won`t support much warming.
Temperatures should at least reach the single digits above zero
lower 10s, and winds are not expected to be substantial. Still,
subzero wind chills will continue across parts of the St. Lawrence
Valley as low pressure approaches the Mid-Atlantic.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A significant winter storm remains on track for the
region. A feed of moisture from the Eastern Pacific and steady warm
advection will provide favorable conditions for a long stretch of
moderate snow. Late this evening into early Monday morning,
additional forcing from frontogenetic forcing and vorticity
advection of a stretched out upper trough will produce a band of
heavy snow across southern Vermont. It`s a precarious balance of
strong forcing and terrain shadowing as winds at 850mb increase to
40-45 knots. Dynamic forcing should overcome some of these nuanced
features, but Rutland proper will likely be a relative minimum while
southeast slopes of the Adirondacks and the southern Greens (like
Ludlow) will have additional upslope enhancement. NBM probabilities
of 2 feet have bumped up to 20-30% in these areas and are about 50-
60% for 18 inches. So the forecast has increased snowfall totals in
those areas. The trick with these narrow bands of forcing is
that it comes at the expense of regions farther north. High res
ensembles, like the experimental REFS indicate the potential for
1"/hr snowfall rates doesn`t really make it much farther north
than Addison County. The current HREF 1"/hr probabilities do
manage to make it north, but doesn`t have the longevity of
southern zones.
After 1 AM Monday, snowfall rates will begin to subside as the
better forcing drags eastwards. However, steady snow will remain
likely. So by the time 7 AM rolls around, there should already be
about 5-8" north and 8-15" south already on the ground. This will
impact the morning commute, and it`s still going to be single-digit
cold. Even though it`s a fluffy snow, there will still be about 0.33-
0.66" of liquid. So take it slow and bundle up clearing things out.
Over the course of the afternoon, snow will reinvigorate after a
morning lull as an inverted trough strengthens and perhaps
closes off into a mid-level low. A small batch of increased
FGEN at 925mb will likely develop and slide east. Additional
snow accumulations of 3-7" is expected, and so the evening
commute will likely also be messy. Snowfall will gradually
subside Monday night.
.KEY MESSAGE 3: Below normal temperatures are expected to continue
across the region next week, with periods of isolated to scattered
snow showers possible.
Winter storm moves out the region Monday night and into Tuesday
morning and behind it, cold and below normal temperatures move back
in for next week. Daytime highs will stay in the teens throughout
the week with overnight lows in the single digits above and below
zero. Generally conditions will remain dry with a chance for some
terrain driven snow showers Thursday into Friday as an upper low
drops out of Canada, moving through the Great Lakes region and then
into our area. There is not significant moisture associated with the
system, hence, the best chances for precipitation will be terrain
driven. Overall, a cold and quiet period is expected.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Strong high pressure will keep flight weather
conditions VFR through 18z Sunday. Clouds increasing during the
daytime hours Sunday. Chance for snow will begin from about 17z
onward, and spread into our area from south to north. RUT and
SLK will have snow by about 17z, then the rest of the terminals
by 00z. Snow may be heavy at times, therefore IFR conditions
will be intermittent with MVFR in lighter snow. Ceilings will
drop to MVFR after 18Z for all terminals before dropping to IFR
after 00Z through 06Z before some improvement to a mix of IFR
and MVFR. Winds will be light an variable for most stations
throughout the TAF period. The Exceptions will be KMSS and KSLK
which will see east-northeasterly winds of 05-10 knots after
18Z. Wind shear conditions at KSLK, KEFK, and KRUT out of the
southeast at 30 knots at 2000ft is expected after 00Z.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
Tuesday for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
Tuesday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Verasamy
AVIATION...Verasamy
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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