997
FXUS61 KBTV 051827
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
227 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 227 PM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes at this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 227 PM EDT Sunday...
1. Largely pleasant weather conditions will continue through
midweek. However, localized and isolated showers are possible
Monday afternoon, followed by a chance of more widespread
showers Monday night and Tuesday primarily in southern areas.
2. Warmer weather expected for the middle of next week, with
chances for showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 227 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: No impactful weather (eg. minimal chance of
thunderstorms, heat, heavy rain, dense fog) is anticipated through
Wednesday. Temperatures look largely seasonable with minimal
advection/light winds through the period. There will be some
variability in humidity, modulated by a broad low pressure/frontal
system to our south. There is a strong consensus that this system
will pass far enough to our south for us to see only light rainfall
(or even none), primarily affecting southern Vermont, during the
Monday night-Tuesday timeframe.
We have backed of PoPs and QPF along with some sharpening of
the gradient from roughly south to north (tapering quickly to
minimal rain in the northern Adirondacks and points north/west
along with northern Vermont). It appears the mid-level
circulation of the low pressure area will be fairly flat with
westerly flow aloft, such that both the thick cloud cover and
rain footprint stays mostly south of our area leaving us with a
good chance of continued fair weather through this event.
Amongst the latest cycle of model guidance, only the FV3 shows
more widespread/northward coverage of rain Monday night into
Tuesday, which appears like an outlier solution at this time.
There could also be a pop up, slow moving isolated shower ahead
of this rain Monday afternoon, associated with a subtle inverted
trough and enhanced instability near the International Border
in New York and Vermont. A plethora of dry air aloft makes this
risk low and chances of thunder nearly zero.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm weather is expected to build towards the
middle of the week, with current forecast high temperatures in
the 80s to low 90s. A cold front will eventually move through
the region, most likely late Thursday or Friday, with drier and
more seasonable conditions expected heading toward the weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage,
with the potential for any stronger storms to be monitored as we
get closer as there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding
the exact strength and timing of these features.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday..VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the forecast period. Winds will be light and
variable. Some high clouds overnight should help keep fog out of
the terminals.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Neiles
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