913
FXUS61 KBTV 131037
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
637 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will continue to bring overcast skies and chances of
rain and breezy winds to the region today, with precipitation
tapering off for Tuesday. Cool and dry conditions will continue
through the remainder of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 237 AM EDT Monday...The main story for today will continue to
be the coastal low moving northward, bringing plenty of cloud cover
and chances for rain. The system has been slow to move and has
plenty of drier air to overcome, with precipitation just starting to
reach the ground across southern Vermont, where steadier
precipitation can be expected as the day progresses. The
precipitation gradient across the region continues to tighten, with
southern Vermont seeing about 0.75 inches to around and inch of rain
while northern locations will likely miss out completely. High
temperatures today will be on the cooler side, with highs generally
in the 50s today under the overcast skies. Heading into tonight,
precipitation will continue to shift eastward out of the area.
Overnight lows tonight will generally be in the upper 30s and 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 237 AM EDT Monday...Although a few lingering showers cannot be
ruled out, drier conditions are expected throughout the day Tuesday.
Seasonable temperatures are expected, with highs climbing into the
upper 50s and lower 60s with plenty of lingering cloud cover. Winds
will be relatively light during the day Tuesday, but overnight into
Wednesday a period of gusty northerly winds will be possible,
especially on Lake Champlain as a moisture-starved front approaches
the region. Temperatures will be much cooler for Wednesday under
brisk northerly flow, with highs only climbing onto the 40s and
low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 218 AM EDT Monday...Main concern for long term wl be the
potential for near critical fire wx conditions on Thursday,
followed by more unsettled wx next weekend. Little change in our
thinking for Thursday with brisk northerly flow of 10 to 20 mph
with localized gusts 20 to 25 mph possible in aligned north to
south valleys (Champlain Valley) and exposed midslopes/ridges.
Sounding profiles suggest some mixing of drier air near 850mb to
support min rh`s near critical fire wx thresholds. Still some
spread in how low rh`s get, because of cool thermal profiles and
sfc temps only in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Next system
approaches our cwa late Sat into Sunday with a round of rain
showers likely. Both GFS/ECMWF show good dynamics associated
with this deepening mid/upper lvl trof and sfc cold frnt, but
still have some timing difference. Given this uncertainty have
continued with NBM pops which brings a period of likely pops on
Sunday. Warm southerly flow ahead of this system wl produce
above normal temps on Sat/Saturday night, before cooler air
arrives for early next week. Highs well into the 60s are likely
on Sat with lows only in the mid 40s to mid 50s Saturday night
with increasing southerly winds.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Areas of low level wind shear associated
with 30 to 45 knot east wind at 1500 to 4000 feet above ground
level continues to impact our taf sites this morning, along with
areas of turbulence. The primary challenge today into tonight
will be occasional showers and lowering cigs, especially toward
evening. Thinking VFR cigs will lower to MVFR by this evening
with potential for intervals of IFR cigs at MPV/SLK and RUT
toward 06z. Elsewhere, VFR cigs become MVFR by mid evening with
mostly VFR vis, even in pockets of rain showers. Easterly winds
5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots possible at Rutland,
will slowly weaken this aftn and become from the north/northeast
by evening. This northerly winds should help to lower cigs,
especially given lift condensation levels lowering to 1000 to
1500 feet by evening at MPV/RUT and SLK.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
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