408
FXUS61 KBTV 251824
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
224 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 223 PM EDT Monday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast this
afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 223 PM EDT Monday...
1. After widespread rain this morning, warmer and drier
conditions are expected through Tuesday. Tuesday will also be
breezy, with gusts of 25 to 40 mph possible across the St. Lawrence
Valley and northern Adirondacks.
2. Seasonable temperatures and a few chances for showers are
expected for the middle of the week.
3. Seasonably cool with unsettled weather, primarily into the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 223 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Drier air continues to move into the region behind the
exiting boundary from this morning, ushering in warmer and drier
conditions, with some breaks in the clouds expected this afternoon.
As high pressure continues to nose into the region tonight, some fog
development will be possible given the recent rainfall, particularly
across eastern Vermont where winds look to remain lighter.
Warm and dry conditions are expected to persist through the day
tomorrow as high pressure centered to our south continues to nose
into the region. High temperatures tomorrow look to climb into the
upper 70s and lower 80s by tomorrow afternoon. In addition to the
warm temperatures, breezy conditions look to develop as a strong low
level jet moves into the region tomorrow afternoon and evening ahead
of a weak boundary, with forecast soundings showing efficient
mixing. The strongest winds will be focused in the St. Lawrence
Valley and northern Adirondacks, where the gusts of 30 to 40 mph
will be possible.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Upper level low pressure centered over the Canadian
Maritimes will continue to keep the region under northwesterly flow
for the middle of the week. Occasional chances for showers will be
possible as several shortwaves rotate about the upper low, but exact
confidence in timing, intensity, and placement is too difficult to
pinpoint at this time. Any showers that to develop should remain
fairly isolated to scattered, with a complete washout not expected
for either Wednesday or Thursday. Seasonable temperatures are
expected Wednesday afternoon, with highs in the 70s to near 80. A
cooling trend looks to begin as we head later in the week, with high
temperatures in the 60s for Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 3: No significant changes in regards to the overall
synoptic pattern heading into the latter portion of this week and
the weekend. The system mid week will become blocked across the
northern Canadian Maritimes and north Atlantic leading to continued
troughing for our region into the weekend. Global ensembles support
persistent upper level troughing extending all the way from
Greenland as an upper low cyclonically rotates near Newfoundland
keeping temperatures seasonably cool with cloudy skies for much of
the late week and weekend. Cyclonic flow will lead to several
shortwave passages into the weekend, with the most amplified of
which likely Friday night into Saturday. 500mb height anomalies will
be overhead Friday into Saturday with cool northerly flow supporting
a closed low passage to start the weekend. Notably, this closed low
originates well north of the Hudson Bay with temperatures resembling
that of early to mid spring or mid to late fall, rather than the end
of May/early June. Highs Friday and Saturday will be about 10 to 15
degrees below normal with values in the low to mid 60s, and lows in
the low 40s. Overnight lows may be slightly warmer across the St.
Lawrence and Champlain Valleys due to water temperatures helping to
moderate air temperatures. These lower temperatures will be
accompanied by scattered to widespread shower and rain activity
Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. The GFS denotes the
540 thickness line will be over the Adirondacks which is uncommon,
but not unheard of for this time of year. As such, some showers may
have some isolated small hail or graupel with mid to upper level
cooling and stagnant sfc temperatures, leading to weak instability
as the low moves overhead, mainly if showers form during the
afternoon. Friday night into Saturday unfortunately looks to be raw
with the cooling temperatures, rain, and some breezy conditions to
10 to 15 mph winds. Beyond Saturday morning, troughing looks to
remain in place towards next week with daily shower chances,
particularly across Northeast Vermont which will be closer to the
axis of the troughing. Perhaps some drying and clearer skies will be
possible in the St. Lawrence Valley Sunday, as temperatures areawide
attempt to trend back to normal for the start of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Improving conditions from a mix of
IFR/MVFR to VFR at all terminals from the 21-00Z time frame
onward as high pressure builds into the region. Outside a
lingering light shower/sprinkle at KEFK through 21Z, dry weather
is expected. Winds light and generally less than 10 knots
through the period. Modest confidence on some patchy mist/fog
early Tuesday morning in the 06-11Z time range, with best threat
at KSLK/KRUT.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Scattered SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Danzig
AVIATION...JMG
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