000
FXUS61 KBTV 242320
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
720 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry weather will persist through tonight as high pressure
briefly crosses the region. Then a strong low pressure system passes
to our northwest this weekend, bringing a round of wintry mixed
precipitation to the region. Some light snow and ice accumulations
are possible, with highest amounts in the higher elevations. After
lingering showers on Sunday, we turn towards drier weather early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 621 PM EDT Friday...Quiet weather with minimal changes for
this update. Main focus was sky cover, as many observations are
boasting clear or few clouds, so turned our sky forecast even
more optimistic for areas of sunshine and clear skies this
evening as high pressure builds from the west. Any clouds will
likely be wispy high clouds. Other aspects of the forecast
remain relatively unchanged during this dry, peaceful period
until our next storm arrives tomorrow. Previous discussion,
including details about that, below:

Previous discussion...Overall forecast for the first half of
the weekend remains unchanged, though as expected, minor
differences in details continue from the previous forecast. A
mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will move in
Saturday afternoon, linger into Saturday evening, before
transitioning to mainly an elevational rain/snow scenario by
early Sunday. Snow/sleet amounts will range from a dusting in
the wider valleys to 2-3 inches in the higher terrain, with most
areas seeing only a glaze of ice, if that. Read on for details.

Ridging will crest over the North Country tonight and move east
Saturday morning. We`re already seeing clearing for areas except the
northern Greens and Northeast Kingdom, and expect clouds will
continue to dissipate as we lose daytime heating this evening. The
northern higher terrain will hold onto the cloud cover longest, but
do expect most areas will see at least partly clear skies overnight.
This with light winds and drying dewpoints will lead to a chilly
night; lows will drop into the lower to mid teens in the Adirondacks
and Northeast Kingdom, while elsewhere will be in the lower to mid
20s.

Again, overall expectations for Saturday and Saturday night remain
the same, with low pressure to lift northward through the Great
Lakes tomorrow to just west of the St Lawrence Valley Saturday
night. While it`ll take a while for precipitation to reach the
ground given the dry air in place, with favorable frontogenetical
forcing and a strong southeast 850mb jet, we should see a pretty
good swath of precipitation overspread the region from southwest to
northeast during the afternoon. Although temperatures will be in the
lower/mid 30s, expect locations that start out as rain will see at
least a time of snow as wet bulbing occurs. One change of note is a
brief dry slot is expected to move in behind this initial band,
turning steadier precipitation to more showery in nature. Warming
aloft will occur during this time as well, so after initial
rain/snow, expect sleet and freezing rain to mix in with the more
showery conditions, especially after 2-4 pm or so, first in the
Adirondacks/southern St Lawrence Valley and later in eastern VT
(which could stay rain/snow as late as 4-6 pm). Temperatures should
recover back into the mid 30s most spots, so valley locations could
change back to primarily rain during the evening, occasionally
mixing with sleet or snow. And temperatures shouldn`t fall much even
after dark, so this should hold true after sunset. Higher elevations
have the better potential for seeing the wintry mix, and it is here
that the highest snow and ice amounts are expected. Precipitation
will begin to fill back in in the evening from west to east as a
secondary low develops off the East Coast and colder air starts to
spill back into the area. This colder air will erode the warm nose
aloft, so there will be a gradual change from the wintry mix to more
of an elevational dependent pure rain/snow event. This should occur
starting roughly around midnight in the St Lawrence Valley to
sunrise Sunday in eastern Vermont.

The other concern for this event will be gusty winds. First will the
the southeast winds Saturday afternoon. With the dry slot moving in,
this will allow for more mixing once the steady precipitation exits.
With a 55+ kt 850 mb jet, expect gusts of 25 to 35 mph, with the
favored western slopes of the Adirondacks/Greens seeing localized
gusts around 40 mph. Gusts will subside a bit as the secondary area
of precipitation moves in during the evening, but winds turn to the
southwest as cooling occurs and lapse rates steepen, once again
allowing gusts of 25-35 mph. This time the St Lawrence Valley and
northeastern sides of the higher terrain have the best potential for
gustier conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 342 PM EDT Friday...Showers will linger around on Sunday as the
low continues to track outside of our region. Precipitation will
taper off by Sunday evening as weak high pressure starts to build
in. Strong 850mb winds and good mixing will create very windy
conditions on Sunday, with the strongest gusts in the Adirondacks
and St. Lawrence Valley. Will generally be out of the west for most
of the day. Temperatures will be fairly seasonable, with high
temperatures in mid 30s to mid 40s during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 342 PM EDT Friday...Next week starts out very quiet Monday into
Tuesday as weak high pressure builds in. Upper flow will be fairly
zonal across the CONUS during this time frame, but there is
potential for a mid-week system. Models have been in disagreement,
both model to model and run to run, regarding the outcomes for a
potential mid-week system. Some ensemble members, as well as a some
of the deterministic global guidance, suggest a storm system
sometime in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Given the amount of
uncertainty for most of the extended, there is currently only
chance PoPs in the forecast. There is still plenty of time for
the models to come into better consensus and the details to be
figured out, so stay tuned. Temperatures continue to be fairly
seasonable next week. Daytime high temperatures in mid 30s to
mid 40s and overnight lows in the 20s, which is perfect for
maple sugaring season.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions with light winds and passing
cirrus clouds are expected through the overnight period. Towards
sunrise around 12Z, we will begin to see ceilings lower below
10kft ahead of the next storm system. By 16Z, most places will
begin to experience precipitation with some places seeing snow,
some seeing rain and other seeing mixed precipitation. The
general thinking is that a rain/snow mix will be observed
initially but a change to light snow will occur during the early
afternoon as precip intensity increased. By the end of the
forecast period, warm air advection should change most places
over to rain although some sleet/freezing rain cannot be ruled
out for KSLK at this time. Gusty southeasterly winds will pick
up by later morning on Saturday with 20 to 30 knot gusts likely
thereafter. In addition, a strong low level jet upwards of 50
knots at 2kft will yield modest wind shear and likely some
modest mechanical turbulence.


Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
RA, Definite SN, Definite PL, Definite FZRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday:  NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night:  Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday:  Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Storm
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Clay