439
FXUS61 KBTV 160028
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
728 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 124 PM EST Sunday...
No significant changes made to the forecast, with a couple of
relatively minor snow events expected over the next several days. No
significant impacts anticipated.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 124 PM EST Sunday...
1. Light snow is expected late tonight into Monday morning and
again late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Minimal impacts
expected.
2. Considerable uncertainty remains for another potential snow
system for mid week.
3. Above normal temperatures mid week into the weekend with chances
of precipitation as well.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 124 PM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A beautiful February day across the region today
with ample sunshine and temperatures in the mid teens to mid
20s. Clouds are already increasing this afternoon ahead of our
next system however. A weak upper shortwave currently crossing
the Great Lakes will slide over our region later tonight into
Monday morning. Much like our system Saturday morning, both
forcing and moisture are minimal with this shortwave and its
associated clipper low; a stronger low of the Mid Atlantic coast
will keep better moisture well to our south. Light snow will
spread into northern NY overnight, eventually moving into the
Champlain Valley and western Greens early Monday before
dissipating as it crosses the spine into eastern VT. Most areas
will see little more than flurries, with most areas getting just
a light dusting to perhaps a few tenths of an inch of
accumulation. Temperatures will be in the teens to low 20s
overnight, so the snow will be dry and light with little in the
way of travel impacts.
Another shortwave will bring another round of light
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday. This one will have a
little better moisture, though it`ll still be fairly scanty.
Snow will spread from west to east overnight Monday night in
response to weak warm air advection, continuing into Tuesday
morning before winding down by the afternoon. While
precipitation should mainly fall as snow, there are some
indications that southwest flow at 850 mb could allow a slight
warm nose to spread into northern NY. Surface temperatures
meanwhile will be marginal. Highs on Monday will be in the lower
to mid 30s areawide, and with an influx of cloud cover, there`s
uncertainty in how much cooling can occur overnight. Still,
some patchy freezing rain can`t be ruled out, especially in the
northern Champlain and northern St Lawrence Valleys early
Tuesday morning. Moisture thins substantially during the day, so
any snow and/or freezing rain should mostly end before having
the chance to change over to plain rain with temperatures
warming into the upper 30s to low 40s. Either way, precipitation
amounts will be light, with a half inch or less of snow
expected. Any freezing rain would be patchy with perhaps a glaze
of accretion at most. Have kept with the trend of just snow
and/or rain during this time frame due to uncertainty,
particularly with surface temperatures, but later shifts may
need to add a mention of freezing rain if probabilities
increase.
KEY MESSAGE 2: There remains considerable spread in both the
deterministic and ensemble models for Wednesday into Thursday,
with a possible block developing across eastern Canada.
Meanwhile, a low pressure system will develop over the
Northern/Central Plains and move eastward. The question will be
how far north this low and its associated precipitation will be
able to intrude as it encounters the block to our northeast. The
deterministic GFS continues to be the most aggressive with the
dry air across our region, keeping the Plains low and its
precipitation shunted just to our south. The CMC follows close
behind, just a hair further north with the precip, spreading it
into central/southern portions of our region. The NAM and ECWMF,
meanwhile, would bring precipitation to most, if not all, of
our forecast area, with perhaps just areas immediately along the
international border remaining dry. There`s just as wide a
variety amongst the various ensemble suites as well, including
the drier GFS. Assuming we do get precipitation, type is just as
uncertain as warmer air from the Plains low would be riding up
and over the colder, drier air associated with the high to our
north and east. As such, there very well could be a swath of
wintry mixed precipitation wherever the snow/rain frontal
interface sets up. Given all the uncertainty, there`s way too
much variability to forecast any kind of snow/rain/ice amounts
and any potential impacts at this point. We urge you to stay
tuned to subsequent forecasts as hopefully a trend will become
established in the models as we head toward mid week.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Temperatures will be above normal from mid week
likely into the weekend but still cold enough to support some
winter precipitation.
Mid week system is wrapping up with precipitation, mainly snow
ending Wed ngt. Shortwave ridging builds behind this first system
and ahead of the next system for late Friday through late Saturday-
Saturday night.
A more significant trough digging across the central U.S. and Great
Lakes with a surface reflection moving across Great Lakes-Oh Rvr Vly
and eventually the northeast. Decent mid-upper level dynamics on the
backside of the upper ridge with the approaching shortwave should
allow for some decent lift and overrunning. The models still have a
spread in the details of the evolution of this northern system and a
southern stream system. The latest Operational run trends is to
mainly separate the two but there`s still plenty of time for
the models to come to some consensus. Separate systems mean
lighter QPF while somewhat merging as suggested by some of the
ensembles would equal more QPF, especially in southern areas
with temperatures profiles around 0C.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail under
thickening mid clouds through about 06Z. The next snow shower
producer is moving through the Great Lakes region and is progged
to move through west to east from 05-11Z impacting mainly
MSS/SLK and Champlain Valley terminals. Some intermittent IFR
conditions are most likely across northern New York, but can`t
completely rule out localized IFR at BTV. The energy associated
with this system will be lifting northward as the surface
feature tracks eastward causing the surface boundary to get tied
up in the Adirondacks/Greens as it washes out. EFK/MPV will
likely have little impact but could see a low CIG
intermittently. South winds prevail after 12Z with some
lingering MVFR CIGs likely.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SN, Slight chance RA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN, Chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV AWOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...SLW/Hastings
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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