474
FXUS61 KBTV 130625
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
225 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low over the Mid-Atlantic will bring increasing clouds
to the region today, with precipitation chances arriving later
tonight. Breezy easterly winds are expected across southern
Vermont today, with some localized downslope wind gusts up to 35
mph possible tonight into Monday over eastern Rutland County.
Cool and mostly dry conditions will continue beyond Tuesday
under cyclonic flow through the remainder of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 231 PM EDT Sunday...Cloud cover associated with a coastal low
is beginning to increase northward with increasing winds and
moisture, particularly in southern Vermont. A coastal low is
continuing to develop across the Mid-Atlantic and will ride the East
Coast before stalling its northward movement around Delaware.
Strengthening 850mb flow with associated frontogenesis in southern
New England will help develop a strong low-level jet with 50-60 mph
winds at the 925-850 mb level. Easterly winds are already gusting
across the higher terrain and eastern Vermont up to 20 mph. Winds
are expected to continue to increase to 25 mph in southern Vermont
by tonight, with localized 35 mph gusts in the nearby western
slopes of the southern Greens, particularly near Rutland,
Vermont. Upper slopes and ridges will be above any stabilizing
inversion later tonight, and should continue to see breezy to
gusty winds with summits potentially reaching as high as 40 mph.
In addition to the breezy winds, mixing out ahead of the cloud
shield have resulted in low relative humidity values to 30-40%.
Moisture advection off the Atlantic this evening should increase
with the onset of the cloud cover helping to raise dewpoints,
and mitigate any fire weather concerns for the remainder of the
day today.
Precipitation will move into the region this evening, with the bulk
of the rainfall overspreading the area tomorrow morning. The
heaviest of the precipitation looks to stay south of the I-89
corridor with more scattered to isolated showers to the north.
Initial rainfall this evening will likely fall as virga to start
with such a dry air mass in place, though with further saturation,
efficient moistening of the air column should allow steady
precipitation rates, at least in southern Vermont. Recent trends
have seen a back and forth on precipitation amounts, though with the
addition of some more hi-res data, amounts have stabilized. Dry air
and stretching of the flow aloft, should limit the overall rain
amounts in northern Vermont with just a few hundreths to a tenth
expected. Mainly an overcast day with a few light showers can be
expected with a sharp precipitation gradient in the forecast.
Further south, precipitation totals could be up to an inch in far
southern Vermont and generally 0.5-0.8 inches in central and
southern Vermont. With the easterly flow, and froude numbers around
0.5, it is likely that locations near the eastern slopes of the
southern Greens (such as Killington and Ludlow) will see slightly
higher precipitation amounts from blocked flow. Conversely,
locations just west of the southern Greens (such as Rutland) could
see some shadowing effects with lesser amounts possible through
Monday afternoon. The system gradually will shift eastward late
Monday night with any residual showers becoming confined to
eastern Vermont near the Connecticut River Valley.
Temperatures tonight will hold steady in the 40s for the entire
region with the persistent cloud cover and rainfall. Temperatures
tomorrow will not be able to climb much with cloud cover and
rainfall remaining for much of the day in southern Vermont. Across
portions of northern New York and northern Vermont, temperatures may
be able to reach 60 with less precipitation and some clearing
potential. Repeat lows Monday night will be in the 40s with
persistence forecasting based on clouds and rain sticking
around.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 231 PM EDT Sunday...The trough responsible for the coastal low
will begin to slide eastward with drying conditions expected behind
the system. A few lingering showers cannot be ruled out early
Tuesday morning, especially in eastern Vermont. Clouds should remain
for most of the day in Vermont, but some clearing late is possible
in northern New York as a subtle ridge tries to nose into the St.
Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will generally be seasonable with
values climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will be calm
for the most part for most of Tuesday, however, a tightening
pressure gradient late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning
which will look to draw in some gusty northerly winds in the
Champlain Valley, especially on Lake Champlain. Gusts 20 to 25 mph
are possible with good channeling effects on the Lake, indicating
the potential for a Lake Wind Advisory by Wednesday morning. Models
are hinting at a weak shortwave passage late Tuesday night
associated with the increasing winds which could draw some upslope
showers, however, PoPs are only (25-35%) and confined to the
northern Greens. This shortwave will likely pan out as a dry cold
front with the main threats being the associated winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 218 AM EDT Monday...Main concern for long term wl be the
potential for near critical fire wx conditions on Thursday,
followed by more unsettled wx next weekend. Little change in our
thinking for Thursday with brisk northerly flow of 10 to 20 mph
with localized gusts 20 to 25 mph possible in aligned north to
south valleys (Champlain Valley) and exposed midslopes/ridges.
Sounding profiles suggest some mixing of drier air near 850mb to
support min rh`s near critical fire wx thresholds. Still some
spread in how low rh`s get, because of cool thermal profiles and
sfc temps only in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Next system
approaches our cwa late Sat into Sunday with a round of rain
showers likely. Both GFS/ECMWF show good dynamics associated
with this deepening mid/upper lvl trof and sfc cold frnt, but
still have some timing difference. Given this uncertainty have
continued with NBM pops which brings a period of likely pops on
Sunday. Warm southerly flow ahead of this system wl produce
above normal temps on Sat/Saturday night, before cooler air
arrives for early next week. Highs well into the 60s are likely
on Sat with lows only in the mid 40s to mid 50s Saturday night
with increasing southerly winds.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...The primary aviation impact today will be
areas of low level wind shear of 35 to 40 knots associated with
strengthening 1500 to 4000 feet above ground level wind field.
Also, areas of light rain will continue to rotate from south to
north across our taf sites. Initially given high cloud bases
and dry surface conditions expect mostly VFR conditions, but as
moisture deepens, areas of MVFR cigs are possible at MPV/RUT
after 18z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions should prevail for the next
6 to 12 hours as cigs slowly lower with areas of light rain.
East to southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots with localized gusts up
15 to 20 knots possible at RUT.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. Chance RA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
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