758
FXUS61 KBTV 131808
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
208 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue across the region through this
evening as low pressure spins off the New Jersey coast, eventually
pushing eastward on Tuesday. Cool, breezy, and dry conditions will
prevail through much of the remainder of the week. We trend warmer
for the weekend, with our next chance for widespread rain not
arriving until early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 207 PM EDT Monday...Showers have become a bit less widespread
this afternoon, particularly across south-central VT where radar
shows little/no activity. Moisture and waves of showers will
continue to rotate around the low as it remains near the NJ coast
through tonight, so anticipate there will be periods of rain mixed
with drier intervals over the next 12-18 hours. Rain will remain
light in nature though, so it won`t be a washout by a long shot. In
fact, have continued the trend of lowering total QPF amounts; latest
forecast now has the vast majority of our forecast area receiving
less than a half inch, with the highest amounts to remain across
south-central VT. Temperatures will remain fairly steady in the
upper 40s to mid/upper 50s through this afternoon, then dropping
into the upper 30s to upper 40s overnight.
Any lingering showers will quickly come to an end Tuesday morning as
the coastal low starts to pull away from the eastern CONUS. Light
north flow will develop by the afternoon/evening, along with partly
to mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be a little warmer than today,
mainly in the 50s to low 60s, warmest in the St Lawrence Valley. A
cold front will then cross from northwest to southeast Tuesday
night, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass. Winds will turn to
the north/northwest, and while moisture will quickly decrease, there
could be enough to allow a few showers to develop as the front moves
through, particularly in the higher terrain of the northern
Adirondacks and northern Greens. Temperatures will drop into the
low/mid 30s in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom, so a bit of
snow will be possible over the mountain summits. Otherwise, lows
should be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 207 PM EDT Monday...High pressure will gradually build into the
Great Lakes while low pressure exits eastward out over the Atlantic.
Cold air advection will prevail on brisk north/northwest winds;
highs will only top out in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Wednesday. An
upper shortwave trough will swing southward out of Quebec, but with
very dry air in place, don`t anticipate much beyond increased cloud
cover, particularly over northern and eastern VT. Gusts of 20 to 30
mph are expected, strongest in the Champlain Valley as winds due to
channeling. Minimum relative humidity will generally be 35 to 45
percent, keeping fire weather conditions sub-critical. Wednesday
night will be cold, though there should be enough remaining wind
overnight to preclude optimal radiational cooling conditions. Lows
will be in the mid/upper 20s to low 30s in the Adirondacks, St
Lawrence Valley, Northeast Kingdom, and eastern VT, while remaining
32 to 40F across the remainder of the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 129 PM EDT Monday...Closed upper level low pressure centered
over Nova Scotia on Thursday will produce a strong northerly flow
across the forecast area with an 850mb jet of 40-45 knots and drier
air mixing down towards the surface. This may result in 10-20 mph
winds and 20-25 mph gusts, potentially even higher, 30-35 mph, on
north-south aligned valleys like the Champlain Valley as well as on
exposed higher terrain. Due to the dry air mixing efficiently down
to the surface, we`re forecasting relative humidity values to bottom
out around 30-40%, and combined with the gusty winds, this continues
to raise some concerns for critical fire weather conditions late
week. Temperatures will also be colder than seasonal normals during
the latter half of the week due to the influx of northern air with
highs only in the upper 40s and 50s and overnight lows in the 20s to
lower 40s.
Brief, multi layer ridging is anticipated for Saturday, allowing one
more mainly dry day and daytime temperatures to reach back into the
upper 50s to mid 60s before a modestly deep trough digs into the
region from the west and associated surface frontal system early
next week, bringing increasing chances of precipitation (up to 55-
75% chance Sunday night). Sunday is likely the warmest day of the
long term forecast period as warm southerly flow brings highs into
the 60s, then temperatures are expected to dip again with highs in
the mid 50s to lower 60s to start the work week with the upper level
low nearly overhead. Lows will largely fall into the mid 30s to
upper 40s early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Gusty surface winds out of the east are
expected to continue at KRUT through about 00Z Tuesday with
gusts 20-25 knots. A couple other sites (including KSLK) could
also have occasional northeasterly gusts 15-20 knots through 00Z
Tuesday, but otherwise we anticipate winds to stay below 10-15
knots over the next 24 hours with a northeasterly component for
most. Once winds decrease this evening and tonight, KRUT should
resume its southeasterly drainage wind 5-10 knots through the
rest of the TAF period, holding onto some LLWS through 06Z
Tuesday as a 30 to 45 knot low level jet lingers overhead and
causes turbulence.
Showers will be continue to fight dry surface air, so about 30%
prob of showers affecting most sites through about 12Z Tuesday,
when precipitation tapers off. Ceilings will be lowering this
afternoon and evening, eventually reaching about 2500-3000 feet
above ground level by about 00Z Tuesday for KRUT and 06Z-12Z
Tuesday elsewhere. These MVFR cigs may not even reach as far
north and west as KMSS at all. IFR ceilings are possible, best
chance at KSLK and/or KRUT, though confidence is low at this
time of IFR ceilings occurring, at least persistently. If IFR
were to occur, it`s would be during the window 06Z-15Z Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
|
