308
FXUS61 KBTV 221128
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
728 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooling trend will continue through the end of the week as a large
upper low builds into the region. Rain chances increase this morning
with some showers possibly producing lightning and graupel, then
improving conditions are expected later in the day. Additional
showers enhanced by the lakes will occur Wednesday night through
Friday before a drying trend takes place over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 208 AM EDT Wednesday...A shortwave is moving up from the
southwest and into the region. It is helping invigorate some showers
over the southern New England and they are beginning to move into
the region. The steadiest showers are expected to mostly stay over
Vermont during the rest of the night. Another trough will push
through during the day today and it looks to have stronger dynamics.
There should also be some diurnal heating before its passage. Its
associated line of showers looks to strengthen as it moves into
Vermont for the mid morning to early afternoon as the instability
modestly increases ahead of it. Therefore, some convective
development is expected. Some pea sized hail and graupel are
possible, and pea sized hail has been reported in several areas
across western Pennsylvania from a similar feature this evening.
Cooling temperatures today will cause the precipitation to change to
snow showers in the highest peaks, and some light accumulations are
expected going through tonight into Thursday. The cooler air aloft
will also generate some lake effect showers off lake Ontario and
southwesterly flow will send them into St. Lawrence County where
locally several tenths of an inch of additional rain are expected.
The more organized showers exit tonight but lingering scattered
showers will continue through tomorrow, with the highest coverage in
the typical upslope areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 208 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper level low will continue to be
stationed over the region for Thursday night into Friday, and it
will keep the shower chances around. These will be invigorated a bit
as a couple vorts pivot around the low. The airmass will gradually
cool into the day Friday and 925 mb temperatures will fall to around
freezing. This will bring snow levels down into the into many of the
midslopes, and a few flakes cannot be ruled out in some of the towns
in the Adirondacks early Friday morning. Highs during the day Friday
should be in the 40s and 50s for most places, though the high peaks
should remain around and below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 208 AM EDT Wednesday...Deep cyclonic flow beneath a large upper
low will continue over the weekend. Streaks of lake effect showers
will continue with summit level snows. During the nighttime, snow
levels may fall enough that areas around 2000 ft agl may see some
flakes so long as there`s a concurrent shower nearby. It`s rather
conditional at about a 30 percent chance for portions of the
Adirondacks. Cool conditions beneath the upper low will result in
upper 20s to upper 30s over the region at night and mid 40s to lower
50s during the daylight hours for the weekend.

By Sunday into Monday, the upper low should be well away from North
America. The last vort max will round through Sunday afternoon. A
bulky 1035mb high will start to build across Quebec Province. Aloft,
a new upper low is likely to spin up near the Gulf of St. Lawrence
and retrograde southwestward. The question is whether that upper low
will result in some cloud cover, or if we can remain relatively
clear. If we stay clear and winds remain light, there is the
potential for strong radiational cooling next Monday and Tuesday.
Forecast temperatures are presently in the lower 20s to near
freezing early next week, and daytime temperatures should trend
towards the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Initial rain is already lifting east.
Smaller showers are moving north along the Champlain Valley, and
then the occluded front is located near the eastern half of Lake
Ontario. Some MVFR ceilings are present in easter Vermont near
KMPV, and in a pocket of clearing, there has been fog at KMSS.
Scattered shower activity will likely continue until the
occluded front is north of the region, and it does so quickly by
about 19-21z. There`s enough confidence to highlight a PROB30
for TSRA at KPBG and KBTV, but is too low anywhere else to
otherwise mention. Within showers, visibilities may drop to 4SM
or have ceilings around 2000-3000 ft agl. Winds will be
southeast to south at 3 to 7 knots. Behind the occluded front,
winds will become southwesterly at 5 to 10 knots with a few
gusts 16 to 20 knots possible, mainly over KMSS and KBTV. Lake
effect showers will begin to develop sometime between 02z-05z
towards KMSS, and then gradually shift east. Some 2500 ft
ceilings will linger near KSLK, but most locations will likely
remain around 3500-7000 ft agl outside showers.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...BTV