994
FXUS61 KBTV 041904
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
204 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 203 PM EST Wednesday...
Shower chances have increased with isolated to scattered terrain
driven snow showers expected through late Thursday morning.
Accumulations will generally be less than 1 inch. Timing continues
to slide later for the frontal passage of a strong Arctic Front over
this weekend.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 203 PM EST Wednesday...
1. Light terrain snow showers through early Thursday then a
strong cold front brings snow showers and cold temperatures late
Friday and Friday night. Driving conditions could sharply
deteriorate with a quick 1 to 3 inches accumulating with potential
for periods of poor visibility as well.
2. Dangerous cold with wind chills of 20 to 30 below zero
remain likely over the weekend. Lowest values now look mainly in the
later Saturday through Sunday morning timeframe.
3. No significant impacts currently expected for early next
week. Temperatures will gradually moderate trend Monday through
Wednesday with low, but increasing chances for snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 203 PM EST Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Northwest flow is resulting in some orographic snow
showers mainly across the northern Greens this afternoon. Coverage
of showers likely expand early Thursday morning as a passing trough
increases forcing in northwestern Vermont, northwestern slopes of
the Adirondacks and especially across the northern Greens. Totals
will be minimal, but up to an inch of accumulation will be possible.
High pressure builds in Thursday with a good set up for radiational
cooling Thursday night. The NEK of Vermont will likely be the
location that radiates out the most with low temperatures around
10 degrees below zero.
Friday will be a reload day with winds shifting out of the south
supporting highs in the mid 20s, upper 20s if skies can clear. A
strong Arctic front will approach late Friday moving through the
region overnight. Widespread snow/snow showers are anticipated, but
will largely be out of phase with strongest winds as thermal packing
will be tightest behind the front. The threat of overnight snow
squalls is lower than preceding forecast pointed towards, but cannot
rule out some early Saturday squall-like showers in portions of
northern New York as surface winds turn northwesterly and increase
in excess of 20mph with gusts to 30 mph. These winds will push
apparent temperatures towards the dangerous threshold around -20F
for the Saint Lawrence Valley. Snowfall totals will not be
completely trivial, mainly expected to range 1 to 3 inches through
early Saturday, which could create slick driving conditions with
periods of poor visibility.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Model agreement is becoming a little better with regards
to the well-anticipated Arctic blast. The trend towards a later
arrival of Arctic air during the day on Saturday and slightly less
intense/extreme cold is becoming more consistent. As such, we have
held off on any Extreme Cold Watches at this time. That being said,
the air still is on track to become dangerously cold as the day
progresses Saturday, with strong cold air advection from west to
east. This pattern with a sharp frontal inversion should result in
gusty northwesterly winds, and some of the deterministic guidance
supports boosting winds and wind gusts a bit from the National Blend
of Models with frequent gusts Saturday of 25-30 MPH widespread. High
temperatures will be rather misleading relative to hourly
temperatures, especially in the valleys and in Vermont; early high
temperatures in the teens will fall into the single digits and
potentially below zero during the day. This is consistent with
forecast soundings showing 925 millibar temperatures dropping
steadily while the inversion height gradually lowers towards that
level.
The coldest conditions are on track for Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Low temperatures will be dependent somewhat on winds
diminishing overnight, and note both Saturday night and Sunday night
these temperatures are challenging with large spread in model
guidance. The deep snowpack combined with additional fresh snow
expected Friday night into Saturday will support high
reflectance/ideal radiational cooling conditions where skies become
clear and winds light. Therefore potential for very low minimums in
the -20 to -30 range without wind will exist in sheltered valleys
Saturday night. As a result, the greatest risk of wind chills below -
20 continues to be Saturday night through Sunday morning, with
probabilities largely in the 50-80% range. The air mass does look to
moderate Sunday night enough that the risk of dangerous cold is more
marginal, with probabilities of temperatures below -20 mainly in the
10-20% range in north central/northeastern Vermont and the
Adirondack region.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The longer range forecast appears more uncertain than
normal, especially with regards to precipitation. There is good
consensus that temperatures will tick upward day to day, with lower
elevations flirting with above freezing temperatures on Wednesday in
a warmer scenario. While high temperature spread is not particularly
large, precipitation is all over the place. Most model guidance is
dry. However, there is some uncertainty in development/track of any
waves along a quasi-stationary boundary to our south and west. The
frontal zone, if it stays too far to the south as the consensus
shows at this time, will prevent us from having any significant
precipitation. At this time, accumulating snow is unlikely areawide
Monday and Tuesday, but moves into the chance category Tuesday night
into Wednesday, when probabilities of 12 hour precipitation of at
least 0.1" increases into the 5-10% range.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions are expected
for much of the period with light winds. Currently behind a weak
boundary there is somewhat stronger winds, mainly northwesterly in
Vermont and southwesterly in New York, but winds will again trend
light and variable tonight ahead of another trough. At the surface,
high pressure will continue to build in from the west, so increasing
subsidence will support some continued chances for MVFR ceilings
especially at MSS, SLK, and EFK. As for precipitation, if it
materializes there will be operational impacts with more light snow
accumulation and lowering visibilities; therefore, have used PROB30
groups in the 06Z to 12Z period given low probabilities, and only at
SLK, EFK, and BTV. The upper level trough that passes through in
this timeframe will support upslope snow showers, with again
favorable conditions for BTV in northwest blocked flow for these
light snow showers.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible.
Definite SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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