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  Friday May 14, 2021

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 140513
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
113 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm days with sunshine and scattered afternoon showers
and an isolated rumble of thunder will persist from Friday through
Monday, with better chances of thunderstorms on Sunday.
Generally quiet and pleasant weather is expected for the middle
of next week as a ridge of high pressure establishes itself
over the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 113 AM EDT Friday...A few specks on radar near South
Lincoln and additional activity is present north of the
international border. Returns are mostly mid-level, but at the
lower levels, some outflow boundaries of gusty winds can be
seen. The forecast has this accounted for. Made minor tweaks for
the TAF package.

Previous Discussion...The evening should be relatively quiet
with mainly in increase in clouds and a few showers descending
through much of the northern half of the North Country before
ending by early morning. Somewhat higher moisture air will be
entering the region, which will help make for a milder night
even with winds going calm again. Lows in the 40s will be
common.

For tomorrow, an upper-level ridge will still be just to our
west keeping us in northwest flow aloft that will promote
instability aloft. As a result, while the weather generally will
be quite pleasant, the introduction of surface heating with
warm and slightly more humid conditions will be marginally
supportive of another round of isolated to scattered showers,
with slightly higher thunderstorm chances than in recent days.
The latest convective allowing model data highlights the area
from the eastern Adirondacks to the Green Mountains for best
chances of showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm.
Similar to earlier in the week, these showers will be small and
move steadily from northwest to southeast and tend to diminish
after dark quickly. Temperatures will rise quickly into the mid
and upper 60s across most of the area, with highs topping out
in the low 70s in most locations of the Connecticut, Champlain,
and St. Lawrence Valleys.

The upper-level ridge axis finally is poised to move over the
area Friday night, resulting in mild and quiet weather. A modest
pressure gradient associated with a weak surface front will
promote southerly low-level flow that should result in
particularly mild conditions in the Champlain Valley, where
temperatures will bottom out near 50 degrees, with lows near 40
in many areas where the boundary layer should decouple resulting
in a strong surface inversion and similar cool conditions as
Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Thursday...Overall, little change has been made to
the weekend forecast that we`ve been highlighting the past few
days. Have opted to trim back chances for showers on Saturday
though as models have slowed the arrival of a weak shortwave
trough with general ridging over the forecast area through most
of the day. Could see a few showers from some developing cumulus
but should be pretty isolated with the best chances being in
the St. Lawrence Valley just before sunset as the shortwave
approaches. Temps will be very pleasant in the upper 60s to mid
70s for highs. Any afternoon/evening showers will quickly wane
Saturday night with quiet conditions for the remainder of the
night. Better chances for convection develop Sunday on the tail
end of the aforementioned shortwave exiting the region. Forecast
soundings show the best boundary layer instability we`ve seen
in days developing in the afternoon helping to support the
development of scattered showers and some isolated rumbles of
thunder. Temps once again will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Thursday...Heading into next week we`re starting to
see a little better consensus amongst global models where for Monday
the region remains in northwest flow and a trailing weak shortwave
could kick off a few additional showers. Thereafter trends are
towards drier conditions with a northern stream trough trending to
stay to our north, while another boundary remains to our south on
Tuesday. Broad ridging follows for Wednesday and Thursday with dry
and warm conditions persisting.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected over the next
24 hours. Variable to terrain driven flow is expected tonight,
then becoming northwesterly at 5 to 10 knots after 14Z. A few
gusts around 15 knots possible from 17Z to 22Z. Isolated showers
will develop around 17Z to 22Z as well with cloud based around
8000ft agl. Do not anticipate impact to TAF terminals. Winds
subside after 22Z, becoming variable and terrain driven once
more with any showers dissipating quickly after sunset.


Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Kutikoff/SLW
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Haynes


 
 
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