981
FXUS61 KBTV 280641
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
141 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow is wrapping up across northern New York early
this morning with lingering activity moving towards south-
central Vermont. For this afternoon, upslope snow over
northern and western mountains will develop will convective snow
showers with the potential for embedded gusty winds will develop
over easter Vermont. Precipitation will taper off on Saturday
ahead of the next storm system arrives on Sunday with a mix of
valley rain and mountain snow. An active wintry weather pattern
looks to unfold turning our calendars into December.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 138 AM EST Friday...**Winter Headlines are in effect
through 10 AM for Lake Effect Snow**
Lake effect snow continues across the Adirondacks with a few pieces
breaking off into northern Vermont. The heaviest activity is
beginning to shift southward ahead of a mid-level trough. Low-level
flow remains west-southwest, and mid-level trough is occasionally
sparking a few showers on the north side of the lake effect band. So
there`s probably about 1-2 more hours of shower activity from
that. Thus, the product end time has been shifted towards 10 AM
and may be concluded even sooner depending on how lake effect
showers develop with the trough passage. The band should be
long enough that south-central Vermont will see some snow
showers this morning as well, potentially picking up a quick 1"
or so of snow. Beyond sunrise, west-northwest flow will become
established, and upslope flow will begin as the base of the
upper trough feature moves across the.
Low-level conditions will be rather unstable beneath the upper
trough, today. Although surface boundaries will be passing east of
Vermont, residual boundaries from lake effect across eastern Vermont
and about 100 J/kg of CAPE should initiate convective snow showers
in eastern Vermont while everyone else has more orographic activity.
A few snow showers could be moderate to locally heavy at times with
gusts of 20 to 30 mph. With the cool weather and breezy conditions,
coats will be wanted.
Snow showers will taper towards the higher peaks as dry air
gradually fills in and Saturday will be cool with mid 20s to mid
30s, but thankfully decreasing winds. Overall, Saturday will be the
quietest day for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 138 AM EST Friday...Saturday night will sink down into the
teens to mid 20s. A warm front will approach from the west. Better
forcing associate with the jet streak will be north of the
international border, and increasing southerly flow in the mid-
levels will result in terrain shadowing. We`ll also have some dry
air on the western periphery of surface high pressure shifting
offshore. During the day, the jet streak will translate northeast,
and a surface low will try to get started on the US East Coast. Warm
air behind the warm front will result in temperatures climbing to
near 40 in the lower elevations. But with very progressive flow,
it`ll be well north of Maine before maturing. Nevertheless, a mix of
valley rain and snow above 1200 ft agl will spread over Vermont
during the day on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 138 AM EST Friday...An active weather pattern will continue
through next week, with several chances for precipitation along with
colder temperatures. Monday will be fairly quiet to start the week
with just a few lingering upslope showers expected earlier in the
day before a brief period of high pressure builds in, allowing for
drier and cold conditions, with high temperatures in the 20s and
30s. Overnight lows Monday will likely drop into the teens and
single digits under ideal radiational cooling.
The next system will impact the region late Tuesday into Wednesday,
likely bringing some widespread snowfall to the region. There still
remains plenty of uncertainty with this system, as any shifts in the
low track and the overall can greatly change the impacts expected.
There continues to growing consensus amongst global deterministic of
this system bringing widespread snow across our forecast area, with
potential for some mixed precipitation likely staying to our south.
The latest NBM shows a 25% to 50% chance of 24-hour snowfall amounts
exceeding 4 inches, with the highest probabilities across south-
central Vermont. As previously stated, trends with this system will
need to be monitored as we get closer, so stay tuned. After this
system exits the region, additional chances for precipitation are
expected towards Thursday as a cold front crosses the region.
Temperatures throughout the week will be on the cold side, with
highs in the 20s and 30s and overnight lows generally in the teens
to low 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all
terminals, with the exception of KSLK where some lingering lake
effect snow continues to bring some reduced visibilities and brief
IFR conditions. While the lake effect snow will continue to shift
southward across the region, some additional snow showers will be
possible during the daylight hours today. The exact timing and
location of these showers will be nearly impossible to pinpoint, but
some brief MVFR and IFR conditions will be possible if any showers
pass overhead. Winds are generally out of the southwest at 7 to 12
knots, with occasional gusts up to 20 knots. Winds will gradually
become more westerly as the day progress, staying breezy throughout
the forecast period.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHSN, Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
South winds remain elevated near 15 to 25 knots over Lake
Champlain. Although winds will transition to west-northwest and
then northwesterly, wind speeds will remain elevated for the
next 24 hours or so. Waves will likely remain about 2 to 4
feet.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at Colchester Reef will likely leave it
inoperable for an extended period of time. This site is not
serviced by the NWS. Its technicians currently do not have an
estimated return to service time. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain, and please
contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for
NYZ029.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
NYZ030.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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