487
FXUS61 KBTV 151756
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
156 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture and cloud cover will shift eastward today with cool,
breezy, and dry conditions prevailing through much of the remainder
of the week. Northerly winds will be gusty winds today and tomorrow,
particularly in the Champlain Valley, and could lead to fire weather
concerns for Thursday. Temperatures trend warmer for the weekend,
with our next chance for widespread rain not arriving until the end
of the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 217 AM EDT Wednesday...A cold front will continue to move
to the southeast across the area this morning. The front is
moving a bit slower than models have initialized it, with low
level moisture remaining and pooling up against the western
slopes of the Greens and Adirondacks. Low level stratus and some
patchy fog should continue into the early morning hours when
the dry air trailing the front should be able to scour out the
low level moisture. Today we will be sandwiched between a
weakening high to our west and an occluding low off the
Massachusetts Coast. An upper trough colocated with the
occluding low will pivot across Maine keeping breezy
north/northwest winds and clouds in place for at last the
beginning of today. Overcast skies for most of the day can be
expected in the Northeast Kingdom which will be the last to see
any clearing. Clouds will clear out fairly quickly across
northern New York which will help temperatures reach into the
mid 50s, with upper 40s to low 50s in Vermont. Even though some
locations will see peaks of sun, strong caa will help usher in
cooler air keeping temperatures low. In addition to the cooler
and drier air, winds between the two air masses will be rather
breezy today in the Champlain Valley and the rest of Vermont.
Northerly winds will gust up to 20 to 25 mph across most of
Vermont, with perhaps some localized higher gusts on the western
slopes of the Greens and Champlain Valley from channeling
effects. Winds on Lake Champlain could gust up to 30 mph at
times which will lead to the need for a Lake Wind Advisory this
afternoon.
Winds will continue to be breezy tonight with winds 15 to 20
mph, though Lake Champlain winds should remain fairly sustained.
Overnight lows will be chilly with portions of the Adirondacks
dipping to the low to mid 20s with some clearing possible. Some
radiative cooling could take place, but with the breezy winds
hanging around, efficient radiative cooling does not look
favorable. This same process should limit any frost formation in
the Champlain Valley where the climatological growing season
continues for another week. Vermont should cool into the low to
mid 30s.
Thursday will be another breezy and chilly day with daytime
highs only reaching the upper 40s to low 50s in Vermont. The St.
Lawrence should be able to reach the mid 50s with more clearing
expected. Dewpoints will continue to dry out from the day prior
leading to low relative humidity values in the 30-40% range.
Some critical fire weather concerns are possible, particularly
in northern New York and the Champlain Valley Thursday with low
RH values and gusty winds expected. Similar to Wednesday,
Thursday will feature breezy to gusty winds which should be
slightly higher than Thursday as high pressure continue to nose
east. Otherwise expected a partly to mainly sunny day with the
most clouds across northeast Vermont
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 217 AM EDT Wednesday...Gusty winds from the day on
Thursday should taper off Thursday night as high pressure begins
to crest over the region. A cold night is expected Thursday
night with lighter winds and more clear skies than nights prior.
Decent conditions for radiative cooling look favorable,
especially over northern New York. Some frost will be possible
in the Champlain Valley where the growing season will continue
for another week. Overnight lows in the Adirondacks will push
the low 20s, with upper 20s to low 30s elsewhere. Deterministic
guidance for Saranac Lake has a considerable cold skewness with
the operational NBM suggesting 22 degrees for a low, but the
95th- percentile suggesting a low of 18. Meaning, the
deterministic NBM is near the 99th-percentile for a low. All in
all, considerably cooler air is possible under good radiative
cooling conditions Thursday night.
Friday will generally be a clear and calm day with ridging
continuing over the region. Winds will be on the lighter side,
but could still be a bit breezy up to 15 mph in the Champlain
Valley. Temperatures will still be chilly with highs remaining
in the low to mid 50s. Some cloud cover will move into the St.
Lawrence Valley ahead of our next system this weekend later in
the day Friday, but most of the area should stay clear with
ample sunshine.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 129 PM EDT Wednesday...Dry conditions and light southerly
flow linger Saturday with temperatures mainly in the upper
50s/low 60s under departing high pressure. Conditions begin to
change Saturday night with southerly flow increasing aloft as
high pressure translates eastward. This will be most noticeably
along the shores of Lake Champlain where warmer lake waters will
help keep low levels mixed. Model guidance suggests a few
sprinkles edging into the St Lawrence Valley, but this could
hold off depending on how fast high pressure exits.
The long wave is expected to amplify Sunday with a strengthening
low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes region while
high pressure slowly departs. The result will be for continued
increases in southerly flow and potential for showers to begin
moving into northern New York. By Sunday night into Monday,
chances of rain showers will likely increase west to east with
low pressure favored to move northwest of northern New York and
Vermont through southern Canada while occluding; potential for
southern stream energy remains, and is present in model
consensus to support continued formation of a southern low that
could wrap moisture across Vermont/northern New York. This
position and transition favors a faster surface front initially
with continued southerly/southeasterly flow through Monday. As
the upper level low tracks eastward Tuesday, the wave may begin
to open up as another system approaches pulling more moisture
back over the region. This points to an extended period of
precipitation chances with beneficial rainfall at this time.
Focus of precipitation in the extended period may be directed
more southeast to northwest dependent on how far south southern
stream energy dips and whether the subsequent front catches up
and can pull offshore moisture back over the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Main aviation concern will be related to
gusty surface winds out of the north. Gust spread has created
some wind speed variance on approach/departure with PIREPS shows
+/-10kts at times. These speed variances will continue this
afternoon before stability builds enough after 22Z to tamp winds
a bit. Speeds and gusts are expected to be stronger Thursday
with some locations seeing gusts to around 30kts. Similar
approach/departure variances and turbulence are likely.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: MVFR. Likely SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Champlain. Northerly
winds behind a passing cold front are leading to channeling
effects on Lake Champlain, enhancing wind and wave conditions.
Winds on the broad and southern waters of the lake are
currently sustained 20 to 25 knots with occasional gusts as high
as 30 knots. Winds in the northern portions of the lake are not
as gusty, but winds are still sustained around 20 knots with
potential gusts up to 25 knots. Waves will be generally 2 to 4
ft. Winds will continue this evening, weakening slightly with
gusts to 25 knots overnight.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
MARINE...BTV Team
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