465
FXUS61 KBTV 241922
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
222 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 215 PM EST Saturday...
Extreme cold warning has been replaced by cold weather advisory
for portions of the area tonight. Otherwise, no significant
changes made to snowfall amounts for event late Sunday through
Monday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 PM EST Saturday...
1. Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills of -15F to -25F
expected tonight across parts of the area, increasing the risk of
hypothermia and frostbite.
2. A long duration and widespread moderate to locally heavy 8 to 16
inch snowfall is expected late Sunday through Monday, making for
hazardous travel, especially the commutes on Monday.
3. Below normal temperatures are expected to continue across the
region next week, with periods of isolated to scattered snow showers
possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM EST Saturday...
.KEY MESSAGE 1: Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills of -15F
to -25F expected tonight across parts of the area, increasing the
risk of hypothermia and frostbite.
A 1040mb high pres is progged to be centered over the NEK of VT at
06z tonight, which wl provide cwa with ideal radiational cooling
conditions with light winds and clear skies. After 06z mid/upper lvl
clouds should overspread the region from southwest to northeast in
advance of our approaching winter storm. Given temps have struggled
to reach 0F in many spots with dwpts in the -10F to -20F range, feel
temps wl drop like a rock once the sunsets this evening. I have
tried my best to capture the rate of temp fall, thinking -15F to
near -25F for NEK/SLK areas with -5F to -15F elsewhere for
lows. The cold weather advisory is for the combination of temps
and wind chills between -15F and -25f acrs parts of our cwa,
which can increase the risk of hypothermia and frostbite.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: A long duration and widespread moderate to locally
heavy 8 to 16 inch snowfall is expected late Sunday through Monday,
making for hazardous travel, especially the commutes on Monday.
Overall fcst remains on track for a long duration and widespread
moderate to locally heavy snowfall acrs our cwa from late Sunday
thru Monday. The challenging aspect is amount of qpf and associated
snowfall ratios. Good news it will be an all snow event.
Water vapor shows deep moisture advection from sub-tropical jet
moving acrs the central/southern CONUS attm, with potent southern
stream s/w energy over the central Baja, while northern energy is
dropping south acrs the northern Plains. As potent s/w energy ejects
eastward tonight, sfc low pres wl develop over the MS River Valley
by Sunday, while 1040mb arctic high pres remains anchored over
northern New England. The position of sfc high pres wl help to
enhance CAD signature on lee-side of the Appalachians Mtns and
produce a double barrel (Miller Type B) low pres structure by late
Sunday. The primary sfc low pres wl track from northeast NC to just
inside the 40/70 benchmark by 12z Monday, while secondary low pres
produces a weak inverted sfc trof like feature acrs our cwa by
midday Monday.
HREF shows a brief 1 to 3 hour window of 1 to 1.5" per hour snowfall
rates associated with initial surge of 850mb to 700mb fgen forcing
on Sunday night. This area of favorable deep layer synoptic scale
ascent with favorable rrq of 250mb jet lifts quickly acrs our cwa on
Sunday night, along with increasing pw values toward 0.35". Low
level wind profiles do indicate a southeast jet of 25 to 45 knots
between 925mb and 850mb, so some downslope shadowing and upslope
enhancement on initial surge is likely acrs our cwa. I anticipate a
general 2 to 6 inches by Monday morning with some local variability
due to trrn.
As additional northern stream s/w energy crosses our cwa btwn 15z-
00z Monday, an inverted sfc trof features develops somewhere from
northern NY into central VT. Its this llvl convergence, combined
with additional 7h fgen forcing that could produce a localized
enhanced area of snowfall on Monday acrs portions of our cwa. My NAM
12KM mesobanding procedure indicates this narrow band of favorable
lift/moisture could be stationary for several hour midday Monday.
Its extremely difficult to pin point the exact placement and
movement, but many of the high res guidance shows this potential
acrs the central CPV, including the Milton to Burlington to
Hinesburg areas. Furthermore, as wind slowly shift from northeast to
northerly, the llvl convergence with strong blocked flow (froude
<0.50) develops, helping to enhance potential snowfall amounts
locally. Its interesting to note the NBM mean 48 hour snowfall for
BTV is 17 inches with 25th of 16" and 75" of 20 inches, while 1V4
mean is 12", 11" and 14" respectively. Given the primary sfc low
pres track, feel SLV may have difficulties reaching warning level
snow criteria, as NBM shows mean values in the 5-8" range.
Snow ratios are challenging with this event, given the extremely
cold air mass, which holds limited amounts of moisture. Pw values
surge to near 0.40" on Sunday night associated with waa
lift/moisture, but drop back into the 0.15" to 0.25" range by
Monday, as northern stream dynamics move acrs our region. Does the
amount of moisture and intervals of better lift/dynamics impact snow
ratios at time during this event, probably. I used an average of
18/20 to 1 but think this maybe high at times. I think we may see
some smaller flakes initially before complete saturation of the
column occurs and again on Monday morning before better energy aloft
arrives. I tried to integrate that into my final snowfall amounts,
which ranges from 6-8" SLV, 8-12" northern Dacks into NEK of VT, and
12 to 16" in the CPV and central/southern VT. I would not be
surprised within the local mesoscale band/inverted trof axis
isolated amounts 16" to 20" by 06z Tuesday. Just too difficult to
determine location attm. Thinking storm total qpf ranges from
0.40" SLV to locally 0.75" to 0.85" southern Green Mtns.
Moisture final decreases on Monday night with lingering snow showers
associated with upslope flow and caa prevailing over the
northern/central Greens. However, moisture is quickly decreasing
after 06z, so probably just flurries toward Tues morning. Temps
remain cold throughout the event with highs only in the single
digits and teens and lows remaining steady.
.KEY MESSAGE 3: Below normal temperatures are expected to continue across the
region next week, with periods of isolated to scattered snow showers
possible.
In the wake of the winter storm exiting the region Monday night,
a cold pattern looks to set up with below normal temperatures
expected for most of the week and occasional chances for snow
showers. Daytime highs look to climb into the single digits and
teens, compared to climatological normals in the 20s. Overnight
lows look to generally be in the single digits above and below
zero, with Wednesday night into Thursday looking to be the
coldest. Some periods of showers will be possible throughout the
week with an upper low across Quebec, and while exact timing is
uncertain, any snow amounts look to be fairly light during this
time frame with very little moisture. The best chances for
showers will be along the favored upslope areas,as well as
across St. Lawrence County and portions of the Adirondacks due
to some enhancement off Lake Ontario, but accumulations are
expected to be light.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Strong high pressure will keep flight
weather conditions VFR through this forecast period. Winds will
begin westerly to northwesterly generally less than 10kts except
for some gusts around 15kts continuing at MPV through 21Z.
Light winds follow overnight through Sunday. Clouds increasing
late in the period with potential for snow showers 16-18Z for
MSS/SLK/RUT/VSF. Much more impactful weather will follow this
forecast period as a significant winter storm moves into the
region.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: MVFR and IFR. Definite SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Definite
SN.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record low maximum temperatures are possible on Saturday; below
are the current records:
KBTV (Burlington area): -4 in 1907
KPBG (Plattsburgh area): 0 in 1976
KSLK (Saranac Lake area): -10 in 1936
KMSS (Massena): -5 in 2004
KMPV (Montpelier): 0 in 2004
SJBV1 (St. Johnsbury): -3 in 1907
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for VTZ003-004-
006>008-010-016>020.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ026-027-
029>031-034.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Taber
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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