107
FXUS61 KBTV 090034
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
734 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Gradually warming weather is expected over the next few days. Light
rain will unfold Friday and Friday evening as temperatures reach
their peak. Gusty southwest winds are also expected, followed by
briefly colder conditions on Saturday. After mostly quiet conditions
much of the day, snow and a wintry mix will lift back northwards
late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. A breezy day on
Sunday will precede a cold front with showers during the
afternoon. Then, more seasonable to somewhat above normal
temperatures will return with snow showers opening the new work
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 PM EST Thursday...Patchy fog is forming in valleys
after today`s snowmelt and clearing of skies. Some locations
have reported localized dense fog. These conditions will persist
for a few hours until moisture refreezes completely with
potential for some valleys to have fog for much of the night.
With temperatures falling below freezing, fog may deposit on
surfaces as a thin layer of ice potentially creating slick
conditions on elevations surfaces like bridges and overpasses.
Previous Discussion...For the rest of today, ever so slowly
decreasing cloud cover will give way to some breaks with
temperatures generally above freezing. Guidance insists on
enough clearing to radiate out, but HREF cloud cover progs keeps
me skeptical. Continued the theme of using raw, hourly data
against the typical diurnal curve. Sheltered hollows of the
Adirondacks and the Upper Valley that clear out still have the
potential to fall into the teens to lower 20s, but most will
remain near freezing under clouds before south winds initiate
the more noticeable warm up. Increasingly dry low-level
conditions embedded in the upper ridge axis will settle in as
surface high pressure slides off the Mid- Atlantic.
Friday will be warm and windy. Guidance has trended upwards with
regards to the strength of the LLJ, with values bumping up towards
65-70 knots. The core of highest winds remains in the inversion, but
there still looks to be about southwest winds of 45-50 knots at
925mb beneath an inversion around 2000 ft. It`s not necessarily
ideal for strong mixing, but HREF and REFS guidance probabilities of
gusts greater than 50 knots are highlight the common trouble spots
for southwest winds - the Route 11 corridor and the immediate shores
of Lake Champlain. So a Wind Advisory has been issues 10 AM Fri to 1
AM Saturday with gusts early in the afternoon likely in the 35-45
mph range within the Advisory area.
Rain will quickly shift east with a sharp, narrow plume of moisture,
and is still expected to make a hasty departure after dropping 0.10-
0.25" of rain. Snow will efficiently get eaten up by the winds and
the warm temperatures, but rainfall amounts of this quantity are not
likely enough to cause significant issues. Cold air quickly rushes
in, and unfortunately, it appears that it does so while fast mid-
level flow remains in place. Post-frontal height rises and
increasingly mixed low-level conditions will produce a second bout
of strong gusts. This should result in one last push of very gusty
winds immediately following the front, with values likely reaching
50 mph, perhaps approaching 55 mph from Malone through Ellenburg, NY
depending on the strength of the boundary. This post frontal air
mass will bring cool air rushing in, but by Saturday morning, it
will still probably range from the mid 20s to mid 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 132 PM EST Thursday...Much of Saturday is expected to be dry.
Northwest flow will quickly break down, and so however cold we get
Saturday morning will be how cold we`ll likely be for whatever comes
next. Temperatures will rise a few degrees into the mid to upper 30s
with very dry air in the region owing to a broad, stretched out
1028-1030mb surface high building across eastern Canada.
Precipitation will lift north Saturday evening after facing some
initial resistance from dry air, but it will help provide some wet-
bulb cooling. P-Type should be snow at onset. A double barrel low
situation will evolve with low pressure developing off Mid-Atlantic
tracking towards the New England Coastline. So warm advection will
decrease some, but eventually by Saturday night, it will be far
enough that some of the warmer mid-level conditions associated with
the parent low will entrain. We`ll see how much, but a mix will
likely develop over portions of the region heading into Sunday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 132 PM EST Thursday...Key Points: * Key Point: Frozen
precipitation areawide, likely in the form of snow, anticipated
Sunday, with accumulating snow possible.
A classic double barrel system will continue into the day Sunday
with an occluding parent low and a developing coastal low off
southern New England. It continues to look more likely that the
coastal low will become the dominant feature of the two overall,
which will continue the trend of a more colder solution for Sunday
in terms of precipitation types. Precipitation is likely to fall as
snow Sunday with a split snow consistency across Vermont and New
York. New York will largely continue to be influenced by the parent
low with more of a dry fluffier snow and higher snow ratios towards
10-15:1. However in Vermont and the CPV, southeasterly flow from the
dominating coastal low will lead to lower snow ratios (8-10:1) and a
wetter snow in the morning before winds become west/northwest with
colder and drier air helping to increase snow ratios by Sunday
evening. Although temperatures will reach highs in the mid 30s
Sunday, wet-bulbing should be able to allow for most of the region
to see mainly snow. However, locations near Lake Champlain, such as
Grand Isle, St. Albans. and downtown Burlington, could see a mix of
rain and snow at times, mainly near midday Sunday. As the coastal
low departs east, the parent upper low will shift east as well
leading to prevailing westerly flow areawide. Winds increase in the
downslope regions of the eastern Adirondacks and eastern Greens as
the parent low upper level jet traverses the region. Gusty winds up
to 20 to 30 mph will be possible. With the parent low passage, an
associated vort max continues to look promising in terms of
available lift with the potential for isolated snow squalls Sunday
night. The NAM12 solution depicts up to 100J/kg of CAPE Sunday
afternoon into the evening across northern New York and central and
northern Vermont before weakening into the Northeast Kingdom. There
should be some moisture around with mild enough temperatures to
support showers and embedded squalls Sunday evening with the
potential for additional travel impacts.
Subtle northwesterly flow late Sunday night into Monday morning
across the northern Greens could lead to some localized upslope
showers with enhancement from some weak orographic lift. Into parts
of New York, however, southwesterly flow will be favorable for a
lake effect band to form off Lake Ontario, leading to localized
light to moderate snow in south/southeastern St. Lawrence County
Sunday into Sunday night. However, the bulk of the moisture will be
dragged along with the upper low, so expect only a few inches across
the upslope higher terrain and in regions under the lake effect snow
band. The pattern beyond the weekend looks to be a bit unsettled,
but on the mild side with a series of weak ridges and troughs.
Temperatures will be mild with highs into the low to mid 30s for
much of early next week. The bulk of the weekend precipitation
should taper off Monday, but linger in the St. Lawrence Valley.
Locations that could see the best chances for precipitation in the
extended will be across the St. Lawrence Valley and northern Greens
as a long wave trough will eject several shortwaves along the St.
Lawrence Valley and International Border. Shadowing and a dry slot
across the CPV and Vermont could limit the overall spatial extent of
these shower chances, but expect broken to overcast skies to
continue through next week. It is January in northern New York and
Vermont after all, but the sun will return someday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Skies are clearing across mush of
northern New York and Vermont resulting in formation of fog from
today`s snowmelt. SLK/MPV/MPV will see the worst of this through
03Z before moisture begins to refreeze. There is about a 50%
chance fog will linger past 03Z however with SLK seeing the
highest chance of IFR through 06Z. Other locations could see
lighter mist down to 3SM intermittently. At MSS, low cloud is
wrapping back into the area with potential for more MVFR CIGs.
Otherwise, LLWS will be the primary threat beginning after 12Z
with surface gusts increasing through the forecast period. A low
level jet will transit the region with south-southwest flow up
to 55kts at 925mb and 70kts at 850mb supporting strong shear
across northern New York and Vermont. SFC gusts on the order of
35+kts are possible, especially for PBG/SLK where southerly flow
will be channeled in the Champlain Valley. Turbulence will
continue to be a factor above 850mb given the strength of the
jet extending above ridge level.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 40 kt. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: MVFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for
NYZ027-030-031.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Boyd/Danzig
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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