044
FXUS61 KBTV 262256
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
656 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will prevail this weekend, with plentiful sunshine
and low humidity. Temperatures will start off near seasonable
normals tomorrow, but they will rise well above normal on
Sunday. The dry weather continues through Monday, but the
humidity will begin to increase. Shower chances return for the
middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 652 PM EDT Friday...Minimal updates to the forecast
tonight. There is smoke from Canadian wildfires aloft, and some
of it even appears to be mixing to the surface with multiple
accounts of people being able to smell it. Otherwise,
temperatures are falling slightly slower than expected, so
slight hourly adjustments were made. Previous discussion below:
Previous discussion...Pleasant weather with cooler temperatures
and low humidity will continue for the rest of the day. A weak
reinforcing cold front will pass through this afternoon and it
could set off a brief shower over the higher elevations of
northern Vermont. Any of these showers would be light and
relatively unimpactful. Western wildfire smoke is impacting the
region this afternoon, and while most of it is aloft, some of it
has been able to mix down to the surface. This has caused some
lowered air quality across northern Vermont and northern New
York, particularly in the Northeast Kingdom. Some of the smoke
will continue through tonight and keep the lower air quality in
place. Winds will lighten up this evening and combined with
relatively dry air and mostly clear skies, there will be
efficient radiational cooling. This will cause low temperatures
to fall into the 50s and upper 40s away from immediate Lake
Champlain. Patchy fog should develop in the climatologically
favored valleys. With the boundary layer decoupling, any near
surface smoke that lingers into the evening will not be able to
dissipate until the day tomorrow. Temperatures will rise a
little higher tomorrow compared to today, but humidity will
remain low with dew points staying in the 50s. Highs will be in
the upper 70s to the mid 80s. Efficient radiational cooling will
occur tomorrow night and temperatures will fall back into the
50s and lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 316 PM EDT Friday...Surface high pressure will dominate
regional weather conditions through Monday with seasonably warm and
dry weather expected. A cutoff upper low that is progged to form
along the north wall of the Gulf Stream on Sunday will drift
northwest toward Cape Cod into Monday, though with little fanfare
other than to perhaps spread some scattered mid/high level cloud
cover into our region from the southeast. Daily highs should range
through the 80s to locally near 90 in the warmest spots, while
overnight lows range through the 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 316 PM EDT Friday...Conditions remain warm, not hot, but with
an increasing level of humidity from Tuesday onward of next week as
a fairly deep longwave trough pulls east from the Midwest/Great
Lakes region and more consistent southerly flow develops. This will
foster increasing chances of showers and a few storms through the
period, most focused during the afternoon/early evening hours. Can`t
rule out a locally stronger storm on any of these days, however,
lapse rates and PBL instability appear modest at best, and as such
more organized severe weather looks unlikely, at least at this
point. As mentioned above, there will be a greater level of humidity
in the air, not uncommon for mid-summer, so overnight lows will
likely hold on the warmer side - generally 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday... VFR conditions will continue through
the evening at all terminals. Patchy fog will develop later in
the night and it should affect MPV and SLK, and possibly EFK.
The fog will lift soon after daybreak and VFR conditions will
continue for the rest of the day. There may be a brief shower at
EFK this afternoon but it will not have any meaningful impacts
on visibility. Winds will generally be northwesterly today,
become light and variable tonight, and go back to northwesterly
tomorrow. LLWS is not a concern.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Storm
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Myskowski
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