189
FXUS61 KBTV 091902
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
202 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds and periods of rain showers will continue into this
evening; strongest winds will be late in the day into the evening,
particularly in northern New York. Another widespread light snow
event with some wintry mix will follow for Saturday night into
Sunday, transitioning into a northwesterly upslope snowfall Sunday
night. Active weather will continue into next week with temperatures
near to a bit above normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 159 PM EST Friday...
*A Wind Advisory remains in effect for all of northern New York
until 1 AM outside of the St. Lawrence Valley which will end
at 10 PM, for gusts up to 55 MPH.
The main weather impact today will be the continued gusty winds
areawide, with the highest gusts focused over northern New
York. A 992mb surface low is currently moving northeast along
eastern Ontario with widespread scattered rain associated with a
warm front lifting north across the area. The region sits
sandwiched between this surface low and a 1030mb high off the
Massachusetts coast which is helping to drive a strong 850mb jet
to 65-70kts. With falling precip, and high base clouds (we are
rain and bkn070 at BTV), some of these higher gusts have been
realized, particularly in northern New York where a Wind
Advisory remain in effect through this evening into tonight.
Higher wind gusts will be focused over the northern downslope
regions of the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley this
afternoon and evening. Winds will gust up to 55 MPH across
northern New York, with locally higher gusts potentially
briefly reaching 60 MPH along US Route 11 near Malone and
Chateaugay. Summit levels in the Adirondacks may even gust to
near 70-80 MPH. Across Vermont, gusts up to 40 mph will be
possible through this evening. The window of higher gusts will
be quite narrow peaking along and immediately behind a cold
front this afternoon, between 7 PM and 1 AM. Limitations to any
High Wind Warnings will be due to lingering moisture aloft and
variable breaks in cloud cover which could reduce the overall
mixing and steeper lapse rates. All in all, an impactful gusty
evening is in store for the area with the highest concern in
northern New York where tree limbs and isolated power outages
may occur. Total rainfall from these showers will not amount to
much with the system exiting by midnight, with only a few tenths
in the higher terrain and a few hundreths in the Champlain
Valley. Temperatures will be non- diurnal this evening and
overnight before the cold front arrives. Highs today may reach
the mid to upper 40s, but likely wont occur until close to
midnight for most areas. We will not tap into any of the cold
air from the cold front tonight or much of tomorrow as it stalls
to our south.
As the system exits this evening to early tonight, winds will
shift to the west with pressure falls as the surface low slides
north of the International Border across Quebec. As winds shift,
behind a cold front, wind concerns will transition to the
eastern downslope regions of the Adirondacks and Greens. Hi-res
guidance suggests gusts up to 55 MPH in eastern Clinton and
eastern Essex Counties, as well as up to 40 MPH in the
southeastern Greens near Ludlow in Vermont. Winds will quickly
lower by Saturday morning with more light and variable winds
Saturday looks to remain on the mild side as another full
latitude double barreled trough approaches the region. The cold
front tonight will stall to the south of the region, keeping
some moisture around and keeping flow generally light with highs
in the mid 30s. Skies may have some clearing breaks in the
morning, but overcast skies return for the afternoon onwards.
Although temperatures will be above freezing for the entire near
term, low precipitation amounts and dewpoints still at or below
freezing, the basin snowmelt and river ice movement potential
continues to trend down for this event.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 159 PM EST Friday...
*Key Point: Widespread snow with some wintry mix is expected
Saturday night, with additional snow showers on Sunday.
Our next impactful system arrives Saturday night as a double
barred low pressure tracks northeast from the Ohio Valley
towards the region. A mature mid latitude cyclone will begin to
occlude over the Great Lakes with a triple point surface low
developing over southeastern New England. Showers increase from
southeast to northeast Saturday night with conditions favoring a
cooler air mass overhead. The coastal low looks to become more
dominant over the region, aiding in keeping a cooler easterly
marine layer over at least Vermont and increasing chances of a
cold air damming setup. Model soundings suggest a weaker warm
nose across the region as a whole with the bulk of the energy
and waa keeping to the south with the coastal low. As a result,
trends have been towards a snowier and sleet based ptype than
freezing rain. However, with any system track nudges, freezing
rain cannot be completely ruled out for anywhere in the region.
Current trends show a 60% chance for most of the region seeing
at least a light glaze of ice, though model solutions look to be
running warm. As such this forecast leans into more sleet and
subsequently less overall snow as well. NBM probabilities of
greater than 3 inches are only 20-30%, with a 60-80% of seeing 2
inches of snow, mainly across the northern Adirondacks and
northeast Kingdom, where colder air should keep precipitation
all snow for the most part. Further south into southern Vermont
and perhaps portions of the St. Lawrence Valley, the chances for
any freezing rain increase. Flow turns to the southwest during
the day Sunday with the potential for a quick lake effect band
to form off Lake Ontario, which may impact extreme southern St.
Lawrence County in New York. Snow amounts will be light with
temperature marginal into the mid 30s. The Champlain Valley
likely will be shadowed between the two competing systems with
just some isolated flurries and up to an inch of snow. Snow
ratios will also be bifurcated with lower ratios in Vermont than
New York with more of that moister marine layer in Vermont.
Precipitation will turn from the southwest to the northwest
with more upslope based as both system drift east away from the
region. As winds turn to the west/northwest, they will become
breezy across the Adirondacks and spine of the Greens. With
these westerly winds, CAPE values will increase to near 50J/kg
(90th percentile near 100J/kg), as lapse rates steepen with
increased mixing. This energy, coupled with better moisture from
an associated cold front, could be enough to sustain isolated
to scattered snow squalls across northern New York and the
northern Champlain Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. With
road temperatures at or above freezing for most of Sunday, with
this setup, flash freeze potential will need to be considered
with caa arriving quickly behind these potential squalls leading
into Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 159 PM EST Friday...The active weather will continue Sunday
night with breezy winds and additional snow expected across the
region, especially across northern New York where some enhancement
off Lake Ontario is expected. Shower activity is expected to
gradually diminish throughout the day Monday as moisture wanes, but
some linger terrain showers cannot be ruled out. Additional snowfall
accumulations during this time period will generally be anywhere
from a dusting at lower elevations to a few inches in the higher
terrain. The unsettled weather pattern will continue into next week
with an active upper level pattern, bringing several chances for
precipitation to the region next week. There is still some
uncertainty into the exact timing and details, but several systems
look to push across the region, with the potential for a more
impactful system mid-week. Temperatures will be on the warmer side
for the start of the week, trending colder as the week progresses.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Gusty winds and periods of rain showers will
occur this afternoon and evening; strongest winds will be in
northern New York. Winds are currently gusting widespread 20-35
knots out of the south/southeast at the surface while a strong low
level jet moves overhead with winds 45-60 knots out of the
west/southwest. This will mean low level wind shear is a threat at
all sites through around 04Z-10Z Saturday when winds overall
decrease and turn northerly into the daylight hours Saturday. Before
then though, surface wind gusts are expected to increase, peaking 25-
35 knots out of the south/southwest 23Z Friday to 07Z Saturday.
Highest winds are forecast for our New York sites MSS, SLK, and PBG
with 40-50 knots likely. Because of this, we have in place a Wind
Advisory this afternoon into tonight, highlighting the potential for
winds to blow around unsecured objects and isolated power outages
resulting from falling tree limbs.
In addition to winds and LLWS, we are monitoring the potential
for ceilings to lower associated with areas of rain showers this
afternoon and evening. Ceilings are likely to be 3000 feet or
below by around 20Z Friday to 02Z Saturday for many sites, and
the associated showers may result in lowered visibilities 4-6
miles occasionally. Ceilings are forecast to increase again to
VFR levels for all sites by around 04Z-10Z Saturday, around the
same time we expect the threat of LLWS to decrease. However,
mountain sites like SLK and EFK could stay socked in with MVFR
clouds for longer on Saturday than the others so long as overall
flow remains northwesterly behind the rain system. There is
some potential that SLK sees IFR ceilings sometime between 03Z
and 07Z Saturday, but confidence is low at this point on the
details as models don`t have a strong consensus on this
probability.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SN, Chance RA, Chance FZRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance FZRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Likely FZRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ026-087.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ027>031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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