455
FXUS61 KBTV 091027
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
627 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...
Durations of 30 to 40 mph gusts in the northern Champlain Valley
have been extended through 10 PM.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...
1. Near critical fire weather conditions expected for parts of
the area on Thursday due to gusty winds and low humidities.
2. A frontal system moving through Friday is strongly favored
to bring a widespread wetting rainfall.
3. An active weather pattern is expected for next week, with
several chances for rainfall and unseasonably warm temperatures for
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The combination of low humidity, gusty winds,
and warm temperatures, along with areas of receptive fuels has
increased our fire weather concerns for today. A Special
Weather Statement has been issued for near critical fire weather
conditions expected, after coordination with partners on fuel
conditions.
High pressure shifting eastward while a system approaching out
of the Great Lakes Region will increase the pressure gradient
across the region promoting gusty southerly flow today. While
the low level jet is not as impressive as last week`s,
temperatures are expected to be warmer resulting in better
mixing of 30-40mph winds to the surface mainly across the east-
west portion of Highway 11 corridor in northern New York and for
the Champlain Valley where flow typically channels. Timing of
the passing of the 850mb jet maximum has slid to the evening
hours suggesting winds will remain gusty for longer and may
result in speeds approaching 45 mph at times right along the
lake shore and across the islands. A few showers or virga may
accompany this streak, so RH could start climbing late afternoon
into the evening coincident with the jet maximum.
Otherwise, very dry air aloft will mix to the surface with
widespread RH ranging 20-35%. These conditions coupled with
gusty winds and dry fine fuel promote increased rates of fire
spread and would be concerning should a fire ignite. Poor RH
recoveries are likely given the progged thermal structure of the
2500-5000ft layer where dry conditions will linger.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A frontal will move into the region Friday with
satellite showing its current position in the Great Lakes
Region. While this system will NOT be a soaker, models have
increased QPF over the last cycle. CAMs and NBM have increased
into the 0.1-0.4" range across the region supporting wetting
rains that would help alleviate dry finer fuels. Leaned more
into CAMs to better highlight 0.25-0.4 inches across terrain
with 0.1-0.25 generally for lower elevations. The one foil for
QPF for eastern Essex County in northern New York, the
Champlain Valley, and Windsor County in Vermont could be rain
shadowing with a decent 40-55kt 850mb jet accompanying the
front.
KEY MESSAGE 3: After a brief period of high pressure over the weekend,
a more active weather pattern is expected heading into next week,
bringing several chances for rainfall to the region. The first
chances look to arrive Sunday night into Monday, with a frontal
boundary situated across the region, although there is still some
uncertainty as to the exact location of this feature, and how that
might impact temperatures and overall precipitation amounts.
Additional shortwaves look to pass through the region towards mid-
week, continuing to bring additional chances for showers.
Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected for early next week, as
southerly flow helps usher in warmer air. The current forecast has
daytime high temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 60s Monday
and Tuesday, with a few locations near 70 for Tuesday. In
comparison, normal high temperatures for this time of year are
generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Depending on where the
aforementioned boundary sets up for Monday, daytime temperatures may
be impacted, with more northern locations cooler while some locales
in southern Vermont may soar into the upper 70s. These trends will
need to be monitored as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the forecast period, with gusty winds being the primary
concern for aviation. Mostly clear skies are expected to prevail,
with increasing cloud cover at the end of the forecast. Winds
are expected to increase out of the south over the next several
hours, with sustained winds reaching 10 to 20 knots later this
afternoon. Gusts will also increase over the next several hours,
with all terminals expected to see gusts in excess of 20 knots
by 15Z or so. KBTV, KPBG, and KMSS will see even stronger gusts,
up to 30 or 40 knots, given the channeled southerly flow today.
Some periods of LLWS possible at most terminals throughout the
day today as a strong low level jet moves across the region.
While winds will remain breezy throughout the entire forecast
period, they are expected to gradually lessen towards the end of
the TAF period.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Boyd
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
|
