396
FXUS61 KBTV 091851
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
151 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread snowfall will move through tomorrow into tomorrow
night, with accumulations generally expected to be in the two to
seven inch range. Plan on slippery road conditions, particularly
during the Wednesday morning and evening commutes, as well as
between 10 AM and 3 PM Wednesday, when heavy snow is
anticipated. The colder and active pattern will continue into
next week with a few additional chances for snow, though no big
snowstorms are expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EST Tuesday...
**Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for St. Lawrence,
Franklin, and western Essex counties of New York as well as
Rutland, Washington, Orange, Caledonia, Lamoille, Essex,
eastern Addison, and western Windsor counties of Vermont.
**In New York, the Advisory runs from 7 AM Wednesday through 7
AM Thursday, while in Vermont, the Advisory runs from 7 AM
Wednesday through 1 AM Thursday.
**Plan on slippery road conditions, particularly during the
Wednesday morning and evening commutes, as well as between 10
AM and 3 PM Wednesday, when heavy snow is anticipated.
High pressure centered over southern New England will shift off into
the Atlantic Ocean this afternoon and evening as low pressure
approaches northern New York from the Great Lakes. This will enhance
warm air advection across the forecast area and commence a period of
light snow showers. Dry air at the surface will make it difficult
for snow to reach the ground, so any snow accumulations will
generally be only a couple tenths of an inch throughout the night,
though higher elevations in the Adirondacks and northern Greens
could pick up an inch or two. This warm air advection will also keep
lows milder than we saw last night, though still a few degrees below
seasonal normals in the teens to lower 20s. A southwesterly low
level jet with winds 40-45 knots will accompany the warm air
advection, bringing gusty winds on mountaintops and ridges and
efficient atmospheric mixing will also produce gusts up to 30-35
knots at the lower elevations, highest in north to south oriented
valleys like the Champlain Valley due to efficient channeling. Any
new snow will likely be light and fluffy and blow around easily,
lowering visibilities.
Tomorrow, a quick-moving clipper type system will cross the region,
its surface low tracking through the St. Lawrence Valley tomorrow
afternoon into the overnight period. Snow will be steadiest
throughout the daytime hours tomorrow with warm air advection in the
morning enhancing snowfall intensity and higher snow ratios on the
front end allowing snow to pile up quickly. Snowfall rates in the
morning could briefly reach around an inch per hour, then turn
lighter in the afternoon. Downsloping and shadowing will overall
limit snowfall in the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys. We`ll
also continue to see southerly to even southeasterly gusts tomorrow
up to 25-30 knots, again strongest in north to south oriented
valleys.
Warm air advection and southerly flow will help make tomorrow the
mildest day of the week with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s, near
seasonable for this time of year. In locations like the wider
valleys where we`ll have temperatures rising slightly above freezing
in the late afternoon, we could see some rain mixing in briefly, but
generally steep lapse rates will keep snow the dominant
precipitation type for this entire event. As the center of the low
passes to the east, northwest flow develops and it should cause a
brief period of upslope snow Wednesday night with lows in the single
digits to lower 20s. Overall, totals in the three to seven inch
range are generally expected in areas we`ve issued a Winter Weather
Advisory and up to three or four inches possible elsewhere. The lake
effect band should stay to the south of our northern New York zones,
though the moisture will still enhance totals in the central and
southern Greens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EST Tuesday...Upslope snow showers are expected Thursday
and Thursday night as temperatures dive back down in cold air
advection following the system discussed in the near term
discussion. Gusty winds will continue out of the west and southwest
during this period as well. Highest snow accumulations will be
focused across the northwestern Adirondacks and the northern Greens
with up to 3 to 6 inches possible. In the southern wider valleys and
eastern slopes, we`ll see minimal to no snow with even some clearing
possible late Thursday night. Temperatures Thursday will be in the
teens and 20s during the day, falling to the single digits and teens
Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 137 AM EST Tuesday...Primary highlights for the long term
include upslope snow showers on Thurs night into Friday, another
light snow event on the weekend, followed by another very cold
airmass late Sunday into early next week. First item wl be a classic
upslope fluff event on Thurs night into Friday, as progged 850mb
temps fall btwn -12F and -20F with lingering 925mb to 500mb rh >70%.
Latest GFS/ECMWF show the closed 700/500mb circulation becoming
vertically stacked just north of the International Border, which
should promote favorable 925mb to 850mb winds of 25 to 40 knots,
resulting in additional upslope accumulating snowfall thru Thurs
night. Have bumped pops into the high likely range for Thurs night
with additional accumulations of 2 to 4 inches of fluff, but
localized 4 to 6 inches possible from Mansfield to Jay Peak. We will
continue to monitor depth of moisture to fine tune snowfall amounts,
but moderately strong caa should help squeeze out remaining moisture
in the mtns. Next fast moving clipper like system associated with
positively tilted mid/upper lvl trof arrives late Sat into Sun. Did
note the 00z ECMWF is a bit more aggressive with sharpening trof and
develops a slightly stronger area of sfc low pres along the mid
Atlantic into southern New England. The GFS/UKMET and CMC show more
of a clipper like system with a period of light snow late Sat into
Sunday, followed by another very cold airmass late Sunday into early
next week. This airmass looks to be associated with bitterly cold
wind chill values as progged 850mb temps drop btwn -22F and -25F
with gusty northwest winds. Cold headlines are likely needed for
Sunday night into Monday. This wl be an advection type of cold on
Sunday night, followed by radiational cooling on Monday night into
Tues with building sfc high pres. Given latest trends additional
lowering of temps is likely on Sunday through Tuesday of next week,
where highs may struggle to reach 10F in many spots on Monday, with
values well below zero again on both Sunday and Monday nights. Cold
air wl help to squeeze out a few upslope snow showers on Sunday into
Sunday night, before column becomes too dry.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...It is a quiet forecast over the next six
hours with a layer of altostratus present ahead of a warm front,
then active conditions including LLWS and snow will follow. Bulk of
steady snow will be between 12Z and 18Z, with visibilities likely
as low as 1/2SM at most sites towards the end of the period.
Character of snow initially will be dry and very light with the
first showers that arrive in the 00Z-12Z period. In fact, at PBG and
BTV, precipitation may be virga with little or no operational
impact. Widespread snow then arrives towards 12Z and become
much heavier, trending wet, especially at KRUT where snow to
liquid ratios could be near 10:1. Other sites will see snowfall
with mainly moderate snow to liquid ratios closer to 12:1.
Flight conditions will be driven by visibilities, as ceilings
lower to mainly 2 to 5 thousand feet outside of the steady snow.
Southwesterly winds aloft will greatly increase tonight,
leading to LLWS as surface winds remain southerly and relatively
light (around 10 knots). Greatest risk of LLWS is at RUT, MPV,
and SLK and during the predawn hours. After a lull, LLWS will
return towards the end of the TAF period. Other sites will tend
to see turbulence but less shear, with wind gusts as high as 25
knots at BTV, especially prior to 12Z and arrival of snow.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
We have issued a Lake Wind Advisory for the Broad Waters of Lake
Champlain as south winds 15 to 25 knots are anticipated this
afternoon. Waves will be 1 to 3 feet this afternoon, building 3
to 5 feet this evening. We anticipate the need for an expansion
of the Lake Wind Advisory to all other zones of the lake this
evening with south winds 15 to 30 knots and gusts as high as
30-40 knots possible.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
Thursday for VTZ004-006>008-010-011-017>020.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST
Thursday for NYZ026-027-029-030-034-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Kutikoff
MARINE...Storm
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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