605
FXUS61 KBTV 011741
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
141 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool weather conditions with a couple frosty nights are expected
over the next few days as high pressure builds overhead. Once high
pressure moves south of the area, temperatures will begin to climb
well above seasonal normals with dry weather continuing. By the new
week, temperatures will begin climbing to the mid 70s to lower 80s.
A few new daily high temperature records may be set before a cold
front begins to approach next Tuesday into Wednesday. That will also
be our next opportunity for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will build southwards
while channeled flow in the mid- levels is taking place. This will
advect cold air today amidst a stout north wind. With afternoon
mixing, these gusts could approach 20 to 25 mph in the Champlain
Valley. Temperatures will likely only top out in the mid 50s to
lower 60s. The air mass will be dry, but the cool air means that
it`ll be harder to get low RHs and most places will bottom out
around 40 percent, with a few locales like the upper valley closer
to 30, but with limited wind. Center of strong 1033mb high will be
overhead tonight. Radiational cooling will be about as efficient as
you can possibly get without fresh snow. So mid 20s to mid 30s,
except near 40 by Lake Champlain is expected. Frost Advisory and
Freeze Warnings are in effect across portions of Vermont and New
York still in the growing season. Additionally, anticipate fog to
develop overnight. Cold weather will likely result in efficient fog
formation on the face of our warm waters, despite limited soil
moisture.

On Thursday, high pressure will remain entrenched. With the center
overhead, winds will be much lighter at 5 mph or so. Temperatures
should warm at least into the 60s. Relative humidity values will be
lower, though with minimum afternoon values ranging from 30 to 35
percent. Thursday night, high pressure will amble offshore, inducing
a subtle south wind. Sheltered locations will still likely go calm.
So, mid 40s in the Champlain Valley and around 30 in sheltered
locations appears most likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will get suppressed
southwards while an upper trough sets up across far northern Canada,
which will establish channeled flow. This will lay out the anomalous
warm, red carpet of continental air. Daytime highs should reach the
70s for most everyone again by Friday. Southwest winds at 10 to 15
mph in the valleys, or 5 to 10 in sheltered areas will develop.
There`s at least some surface moisture coming in off the
southwesterly flow. Minimum relative humidity values will likely
bottom out towards 35 to 40 percent as dewpoints rise into the 40s.
A weak warm front will cross late Friday into Saturday morning while
a weak cold front attempts to descend southwards. The warm front
will be the winner, though. The probabilities are very low (5-10%),
but it`s not impossible that a sprinkle may take place near the
international border. The main story will be that this means
temperatures will be warmer again overnight, with Saturday morning
temperatures leaning above normal with lower 40s in the Dacks and
eastern Vermont and lower 50s across the broad valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Wednesday...Strong mid to upper level ridging will
build into the forecast area out of the southeastern US as surface
high pressure sits over the mid-Atlantic this weekend, resulting in
quiet, dry, mostly sunny, and warm weather with highs in the mid 70s
to lower 80s through the start of the next work week, roughly 15
degrees above seasonable averages for early October. Lows will also
be relatively mild in the 40s to mid 50s in spite of clear overnight
due to the persistent warm air mass. Patchy valley fog is also
possible this weekend but will be fighting persistent dry
conditions. The arrival of a cold front is expected early to mid
week. Highest chances of measurable precipitation are on Tuesday
night. There is also the potential for this cold front to get pushed
later and later in the week as high pressure stays locked in place
over us. When the cold front does arrive, it is likely to bring
cooler temperatures again with highs falling into the 60s and lows
into the 30s/40s mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period under influence from strong high pressure centered over
Hudson Bay, Canada. Clear skies and dry weather will dominate today
and tonight. Northerly winds gusting to 10-25 knots this afternoon
will settle down after 00z. Lighter winds and strong radiational
cooling will return overnight, potentially producing fog or even
freezing fog at some sites. Most likely sites for IFR will be SLK,
MPV, and EFK 09Z-10Z onwards, similar to the previous overnight. Any
fog that forms should lift between 12-13z.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Saturday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Leaf litter is increasing across northern New York and Vermont
leading to more widespread availability of carrying fuels. Ongoing
and deepening drought has resulted in near record dry 1000hr
fuels and very dry soils, As expected, we`ve had 20 to 25 mph
gusts in the Champlain Valley and intermittently across other
portions of Vermont and northern New York. Outside a handful of
locations, we have avoided lower relative humidity values. Most
have ranged 43 to 53 percent with localized values in the mid 30
percentages. Check with your local agencies to see if there is
a burn ban in effect, take care not to cause a spark, and report
any smoke to your local officials.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Tonight, strong radiational cooling may result in near record
daily low temperatures at the Adirondack Airport in Saranac
Lake. Also, incoming heat this weekend is presently forecast to
approach daily record values. The most likely dates for records
will be October 5th and October 6th. Below are likely records
under threat (site forecast within 3 degrees of the record)...

Record Low Temperatures:

October 2:
KSLK: 22/1947

Record High Temperatures:

October 5:
KBTV: 83/2023
KMPV: 82/1951
KPBG: 80/2005
KMSS: 85/1991

October 6:
KBTV: 82/1990
KMPV: 79/1990
KMSS: 81/2005

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
     VTZ006-008-010-011-019>021.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
     VTZ002-005-009-016>018.
NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ026-027.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ028-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
FIRE WEATHER...BTV
CLIMATE...BTV