045
FXUS61 KBTV 051822
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
122 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be possible this evening and
overnight tonight as a strong clipper system impacts our region with
more valley rain and mountain snow showers. Winds will be highest in
the downslope regions of the eastern Adirondacks and eastern Green
mountains. Unsettled weather is expected to continue into the
weekend. Temperatures will likely be near seasonable levels for most
of this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 112 PM EST Wednesday...
* A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Essex County, New York,
as well as portions of central and southern Vermont for winds
10 to 20 MPH and gusts 40 to 50 MPH from 4 PM Today until 1
PM Thursday.
While surface level ridging builds in from the southeastern U.S.,
warm air advection, frontogenesis along a warm frontal boundary, and
a tongue of moisture off low pressure over the Great Lakes are
producing rain, high elevation snow, and mid level clouds across
northern New York and Vermont this afternoon. Winds will continue to
increase this evening out of the west and northwest with a low level
jet up to 50-55 knots at the 850mb level as the atmosphere remains
mixed for much of tonight. Wind gusts at the surface are anticipated
to get as high as 30-50 mph on eastern slopes of the mountains,
potentially 45 to 55 mph at the summits.
Highest winds are anticipated after midnight tonight and continue
until around or after sunrise tomorrow morning. Probabilities of at
least 40 mph on the HREF has decreased to about 40-60%, but still
thinking eastern slopes, especially in southern Vermont, could have
increased wind gusts from atmospheric mixing based on model
soundings. While overall modeled winds have decreased slightly in
the past 12 hours, we have refined the forecast so that more
targeted areas have the most intense gusts in the forecast. The Wind
Advisory remains largely unchanged. Damaging winds could blow down
trees and power lines, and scattered power outages are possible.
Rain and mountain snow are expected to continue tonight, associated
with the passage of a cold frontal boundary and surface low pressure
nearly directly overhead. Forecast precipitation will be anywhere
from 0.05-0.90" with highest amounts on western slopes of mountains
and lowest in the southern valleys east of mountains. Snow levels
are forecast to plummet 600-1200 feet as cold air rushes in behind
the cold front, potentially even lower, but drier air will also
arrive to taper off precipitation at the lower levels, but not
before a few flakes fly in some of the northern valleys.
Snow accumulations are expected to remain in the mountains and
Northeast Kingdom, however, with a slushy 3 to 7 inches possible at
highest elevations. Impacts continue to look minimal with such
localized accumulations, though the combination of the gusty winds
and snow could create low visibilities for anyone driving in the
mountains overnight and during the morning commute tomorrow.
Temperatures overnight tonight will be seasonable in the mid 20s to
mid 30s, likely feeling colder in the rain, snow, and wind.
High pressure is anticipated to build in from the Ohio Valley and
mid-Atlantic tomorrow, leaving us some lingering upslope showers in
the mountains that should dwindle by the afternoon. This could bring
perhaps an additional inch to highest elevations, but again not much
forecast to accumulate in the valleys. Highs will top out in the mid
30s to mid 40s, a touch cooler than what is seasonable for early
November, but we could even see the sun in the wider valleys in the
afternoon. Northwesterly winds will be on the decrease throughout
the day as well, keeping clusters of clouds in the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 112 PM EST Wednesday...Thursday night, we should be dry as high
pressure in the mid- Atlantic drifts eastward with partly to mostly
clear skies early, resulting in a quick fall of temperatures into
the upper teens to lower 30s, a good 5-10 degrees below seasonal
averages before clouds increase again. Winds will be very light and
turning out of the south Thursday night, then increasing out of the
south and southeast on Friday with the approach of another frontal
system whose low will be moving to the east/northeast from the Great
Lakes and Ontario to Quebec.
This will keep us in the "warm" sector of the system with highs
encouraged by the southerly flow into the mid 40s to lower 50s on
Friday, which is about seasonable for this time of year, then
falling only as low as the mid 30s to mid 40s Friday night,
relatively mild. Precipitation chances are expected to increase
throughout the day Friday, peaking during the evening/early
overnight, then decreasing toward dawn Saturday morning with upslope
areas favored again in south-southwesterly flow. Snow levels will
climb into the 2600-6000 foot range due to the mild air involved,
severely limiting any snowfall potential. Most of this system will
be rain, with some wet snowflakes possibly mixing in at highest
elevations. Overall expecting about 0.10-0.25" of precipitation
Friday and Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 342 AM EST Wednesday...A light to moderate rainfall is on track
for Friday night as the best upper level forcing stays much to our
north, detached from the prefrontal wave that will support the
widespread rain over our area. The surface front will likely pass
through uneventfully on Saturday with a lack of a strong pressure
rise/fall couplet. As weak high pressure builds in on Saturday,
lingering showers and clouds will gradually give way to some
clearing skies.
The quiet weather still looks short lived as widespread rain
returns on Sunday. There seems to be a faster trend, with rain
increasingly likely as early as Sunday morning spreading from
southwest to northeast during the day. Given the antecedent air
mass will be marginally cold for snow, the overrunning
precipitation could begin as snow before changing over to rain.
As we get closer to the event, we`ll also have to consider a
transition period with even pockets of freezing rain given the
favorable synoptic setup with low level easterly winds and low
track to our west. Eventually, regardless of the exact storm
track and possible switch of rain back to snow before the system
winds down, we`ll see a return to westerly winds and sharply
colder air by Monday. Still looks like a favorable lake- effect
setup for Monday into Tuesday as the coldest air mass of the
season moves over the region, although it remains to be seen if
low level winds will favor an orientation south of the region or
into the northern Adirondacks and potentially Vermont if the
bands are strong enough.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Aviation hazards for the next 24 hrs will
be concentrated in the 20Z-14Z timeframe as a strong frontal
system moves through the region. Most hazardous conditions will
be related to LLWS along/ahead of the front with IFR to MVFR
categories associated with ceilings and precipitation. Starting
with a mix of primarily VFR and a few spots of MVFR as light
rain from a relative warm front moves through the region lowers
CIGs, conditions will worsen after 00Z as heavier precipitation
moves into the region and as snow mixes in with rain at SLK/MPV.
Strong surface gusts are anticipated along and behind the front
with some terminals seeing gusts to 35kts. Southern Vermont has
the best chances of seeing gusts in excess of 40kts overnight as
the boundary moves out of Vermont. Categorical improvements are
likely after 12Z with winds dropping and clouds lifting as drier
air moves into the region.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance FZRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Sunday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA, Likely
SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA,
Chance SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
South to southeast winds 5 to 15 knots this evening on Lake
Champlain will become northwest tonight and increase to 15 to
30 knots with gusts as high as 35 to 45 knots into tomorrow
associated with downsloping winds and a low level jet. Winds
will be highest in the broad waters of the lake. Waves build
from 1 to 2 feet this afternoon to 4 to 5 feet possible tonight
and tomorrow. Winds are expected to weaken tomorrow afternoon
and tomorrow night.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for VTZ005-008>011-
017>021.
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for NYZ034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Boyd
MARINE...Storm
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