658
FXUS61 KBTV 042018
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
Issued by National Weather Service Caribou ME
318 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be possible through this
evening as a clipper like system departs. Another slightly
stronger clipper system impacts our region on Wednesday with
more showers and potentially higher gusts up to 50 mph possible.
Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend. Temperatures
are near seasonable levels for most of this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
W/NW flow continues across the area in the wake of a departing clipper
like system. Residual moisture is contributing to the development of
scattered showers in the vicinity of the higher terrain due to upsloping.
With 925mb temperatures -1 to -2C, snow showers will be
likely across the northern Greens under any passing showers,
especially at Jay Peak and Mt. Mansfield. Showers will taper off
this evening with brief clearing overnight. Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph
will gradually diminish through the evening and overnight. Expect the
strongest winds to occur in the downslope regions of the Adirondacks
and eastern Greens. Locations from Stowe to Ludlow in Vermont,
and Plattsburgh to Ticonderoga in New York will see the most
favorable conditions for gusty winds.
Some clearing expected briefly tonight ahead of the arrival of
another deepening, fast-moving, clipper like system Wednesday. 500mb
heights look to amplify in time Wednesday leading to a
strengthening low pressure system moving east out of the
northern Great Lakes. Frontogenesis along a warm front leading
the system will arrive Wednesday morning in northern New York
with a band of light rain/mtn snow showers. Initial QPF should
be light with a dry surface, before saturating later in the
afternoon. Showers will spread across the region by Wednesday
afternoon. This will be another high PoP/low QPF situation with
the quickly moving system. Waa Wednesday afternoon will limit
any meaningful snowfall amounts, outside of Mt. Marcy, with snow
levels increasing to 5000 ft agl. A strong LLJ in association
with the deepening system will increase winds aloft to near 60
mph, with top of the mixed layer to 50 mph. Winds will increase
to 20 to 30 mph during the day Wednesday.
Wednesday night, gusty west-northwest winds will ramp up as the
core of the LLJ shifts over the region. Some convection along a
pre-frontal trough moving through late during the evening will
help to mix down higher winds aloft. Convection will be
relatively weak due to limited instability and thus thunder is
unlikely but it could be locally enhanced from upslope flow
along the greens. Model soundings show winds of 50 to 60 kts in
the 925 to 850mb level should contribute to gusts of 25 to 35
kts with even greater gusts in the highest terrain. The
greatest winds are likely to be found from Ludlow to Stowe and
Ticonderoga to Plattsburgh in the eastern facing slopes of the
Adirondacks and eastern Greens. At this time, confidence was
high enough to issue a wind advisory for the entire area
although conditions are expected to be more marginal in northern
regions along the Canadian border.
Outside of the wind threat, precipitation should be relatively
low with most areas expected to see QPF of 0.2 to 0.5 inches.
with higher amounts in the terrain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Snow level should lower 1500ft agl by Thursday morning. For
now, the forecast shows a slushy dusting to a inch around
1500ft, 1 to 3 inches from 2000 to 3000 ft, and 3 to 5 at
summit level at Mt. Mansfield and Jay Peak. Impacts look to be
minimal with snow accumulations fairly localized to the
immediate high terrain, especially with surface temperatures
still above freezing. The system races off to the east Thursday
afternoon, with clearing skies areawide but cooling temperatures
into the low 30s with strong caa.
Thursday night will be another lull in the action before the next
pressure falls occur. In response to the tightening gradient,
southerly winds will once again become breezy on Friday with the
typical northern Champlain Valley channeling enhancing winds
locally, likely into the 30-35 MPH range for gusts. Model consensus
suggests winds will peak during the afternoon or early evening,
dependent on onset of rain showers. Said precipitation timing as it
spreads in from the west is uncertain.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A couple of model camps suggest through 7 PM Friday it will be
largely dry with only a low (under 40%) chance of rain in the
St. Lawrence Valley, and other camps suggesting rain is nearly
certain in northern New York and likely in Vermont (especially
northwestern areas). Agreement on rain Friday night is rather
high, hence high PoPs approaching 100% are in the forecast
areawide with favorable dynamics out ahead of the next cold
front. It looks like yet another system with a southwesterly low
level jet to support more terrain shadowing for precipitation
amounts. This system also is poised to be mainly rain, even at
higher elevations, with limited at best upslope/backside
precipitation as colder air filters in Saturday morning. So
while 925 millibar temperatures will slip below freezing from
northwest to southeast, precipitation chances will also be
dwindling. This will be something to keep an eye on, but would
expect either PoPs trend lower or temperatures higher during
this period.
The next system for Sunday-Sunday night looks like the more
interesting one for snow lovers as a rain to snow event is possible
as a longwave trough develops with its axis over the Great Lakes
region. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light with a quick
moving low pressure system. However, there is unusually good model
agreement on the large scale pattern turning cold with a deep trough
building on Monday in the wake of this system, although at this
timeframe there certainly may be small changes over the next few
days. All LREF model clusters support at least a 30% chance of
measurable snowfall, with much higher probabilities dependent on
elevation, through midday Monday. Mean 850 millibar temperatures of
about -8 degrees Celsius and 925 millibar temperatures near -4
degrees Celsius suggests marginally cold enough conditions for wet
snow down to the lower valleys, so the current weather type forecast
looks reasonable at this point with mainly snow or rain and snow at
our lowest elevations.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR. West-northwest winds will continue
through 00Z, then gradually diminish and shift southerly after
06Z. Through the evening expect most gusts in the 15 to 25 knot
range. Following sunset and surface winds diminishing, enough
wind off the deck will result in LLWS, especially at EFK and
MPV, from about 00Z to 06Z.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts to 40 kt. Definite SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday night: Mainly MVFR. Chance RA and SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR also possible. Chance RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 with gusts up to 35
knots continue through early this evening, associated with
downsloping winds. Winds will be highest in the broad waters of
the lake. Waves mostly in the 2 to 4 foot range during the
period. Winds will generally weaken this evening.
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday for
VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Wind Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday for
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SM
NEAR TERM...SM
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM...SM
AVIATION...SM
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