000
FXUS61 KBTV 250828
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
428 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
We remain on the northern fringes of a post-tropical storm with
cloud cover and rain showers continuing to our south. Large
Canadian surface high pressure ridging into our area form the
north. Aside from isolated afternoon showers in the higher
elevations this afternoon, high pressure will effectively build
in through the upcoming week. As a result, seasonable and dry
weather will prevail through the end of the week and possibly
beyond.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...A very weak frontal boundary remains
across our southern zones and we have very light rain showers
which have formed near that boundary. Otherwise, surface ridge
will build into our region out of Canada, and some smoke will be
evident on northerly flow from Canadian wildfires. We also once
again have patchy fog that has developed overnight, especially
in areas that have cleared out. Have continued with slight
chance for showers this afternoon, especially over the higher
terrain of the Adirondacks. HRRR continues to show smoke in the
upper levels of the atmosphere over our region for today. Smoke
is not expected to cause respiratory issues with low
concentrations near the surface based on both upstream
observations and modeling. We will likely see fog develop
tonight once again, especially in the typically fog prone areas.
Tuesday will be an ideal fall day with high pressure continuing
to ridge into our area. We will have sunny skies and seasonable
temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...Tuesday night might be the chilliest
night of the week as the high pressure sits directly overhead,
providing strong subsidence and radiational cooling. Typically
cold portions of the Adirondacks could even briefly reach
freezing temperatures and feature frost during the coldest pre-
dawn hours of the night. Lows outside of these cold spots will
be in the upper 30s to mid-40s, mildest along Lake Champlain,
whose waters are still relatively warm. The night continues to
look favorable for patchy fog in river valleys. A gorgeous dry
and mostly sunny day is in store for the midweek with highs
peaking just a couple degrees above average in the upper 60s to
lower 70s and light/variable winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...Models continue to show the high
breaking down toward the weekend, but overall the impacts are
minimal as we`re still looking at dry weather through early next
week for the forecast area with perhaps some increased clouds
for the weekend/early next week. Highs still look above average
in the upper 60s to lower 70s with lows gradually moderating
from upper 30s - upper 40s late week to mid-40s - mid-50s next
week and nights featuring valley fog.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Tricky forecast with where we will have
fog overnight. Currently have a variety of categories with Fog
at MPV, MSS and EFK ranging from MVFR to LIFR. Expect fog to
remain until about 13 or 14z when it will lift and all sites
will then be VFR. Mid to high clouds continue across the
Adirondacks and south-central Vermont. Winds will continue to be
light and terrain driven through about 10z before north to east
winds increase. Beyond 13z, wind speeds pick up to 8 to 14
knots sustained with gusts 15 to 20 knots possible, particularly
at KMSS. Fair weather cumulus with bases 5000-7000 ft agl are
likely between 15z and 21z. After 22z, winds will begin to
subside, but remain around 4 to 8 knots. Fog formation will be
possible again Monday night.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Neiles
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