583
FXUS61 KBTV 221818
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
218 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooling trend will continue through the end of the week as a large
upper low builds into the region. Rain chances increase this morning
with some showers possibly producing lightning and graupel, then
improving conditions are expected later in the day. Additional
showers enhanced by the lakes will occur Wednesday night through
Friday before a drying trend takes place over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 208 AM EDT Wednesday...A shortwave is moving up from the
southwest and into the region. It is helping invigorate some showers
over the southern New England and they are beginning to move into
the region. The steadiest showers are expected to mostly stay over
Vermont during the rest of the night. Another trough will push
through during the day today and it looks to have stronger dynamics.
There should also be some diurnal heating before its passage. Its
associated line of showers looks to strengthen as it moves into
Vermont for the mid morning to early afternoon as the instability
modestly increases ahead of it. Therefore, some convective
development is expected. Some pea sized hail and graupel are
possible, and pea sized hail has been reported in several areas
across western Pennsylvania from a similar feature this evening.
Cooling temperatures today will cause the precipitation to change to
snow showers in the highest peaks, and some light accumulations are
expected going through tonight into Thursday. The cooler air aloft
will also generate some lake effect showers off lake Ontario and
southwesterly flow will send them into St. Lawrence County where
locally several tenths of an inch of additional rain are expected.
The more organized showers exit tonight but lingering scattered
showers will continue through tomorrow, with the highest coverage in
the typical upslope areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 208 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper level low will continue to be
stationed over the region for Thursday night into Friday, and it
will keep the shower chances around. These will be invigorated a bit
as a couple vorts pivot around the low. The airmass will gradually
cool into the day Friday and 925 mb temperatures will fall to around
freezing. This will bring snow levels down into the into many of the
midslopes, and a few flakes cannot be ruled out in some of the towns
in the Adirondacks early Friday morning. Highs during the day Friday
should be in the 40s and 50s for most places, though the high peaks
should remain around and below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 217 PM EDT Wednesday...Cyclonic flow will continue this weekend
with chances for precipitation, particularly in the higher terrain
through Sunday. The gyre responsible for our upper low and
shortwaves late this week, will will drift eastward, with a diving
upper low Sunday into Monday. Some scattered northern mountain rain
and snow showers will be the main impact with drier northwest air
entraining into the system. With nighttime temperatures falling
below freezing above 2000ft agl, with any passing shower, some
flakes may be able to fall, however, this is very conditional with
only about a 30-40% chance of precipitation in the higher terrain.
No appreciable accumulations are expected with surface temperatures
still above freezing. With the diving upper low, the lake effect
clouds and shower axis will shift southwards out of our region with
drier conditions across the Adirondacks and southern St. Lawrence
County. Temperatures generally through the long term will be
relatively seasonable into the start of next week near 50, with a
weak warming trend expected by mid week. Overnight lows will dip to
the upper 20s to low 30s. There are some good signals for strong
raditional cooling Monday and Tuesday night, if the area can clear
out under the upper low. Lows into the low 20s could be possible in
the Adirondacks and NEK.

Beyond early next week, there is a lot of uncertainty as to the
evolution of the Monday upper low with a developing ridge. Ensembles
vary in the potential break down of this ridge by mid week which has
large implications for the evolution of the upper low and whether it
will retrograde east, or stall out over the Mid-Atlantic. A solution
favoring a retrograding system would bring some unsettled weather to
our area through much of next week, whereas a solution with a
stronger ridge, shows a much drier week ahead. We will continue to
monitor the trends in the coming days, so keep an eye to our
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...As an upper level low continues to
cyclonically rotate overhead, scattered light to moderate showers
are pushing through Vermont and New York. A band of light to
moderate thundershowers in the Champlain Valley will continue to
track to the northeast over the next hour or two. Impacts will be
briefly gusty winds up to 20 knots and brief visibility reductions
to 2SM. MVFR ceilings with these showers will vary between 1300-
2700ft agl based on observations. The band should reach EFK by 19Z.
Behind this band of thundershowers, trends will be towards VFR at
all terminals by 21Z through at least 06Z. Lake effect clouds and
showers overnight will impact SLK and MSS based on forecast wind
directions. Some lower clouds downstream of the lake effect showers
will lead to ceilings at PBG/RUT/BTV around 4000ft agl. Lake effect
showers will continue at SLK with cyclonically driven scattered
showers at MSS. Outside of SLK/MSS, terminals tomorrow should
continue to be VFR with some gusty winds in the Champlain Valley
from channeled flow and overall scattered VFR ceilings.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
EQUIPMENT...BTV