847
FXUS61 KBTV 131730
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
130 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will continue to bring overcast skies and chances of
rain and breezy winds to the region today, with precipitation
tapering off for Tuesday. Cool and dry conditions will continue
through the remainder of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 237 AM EDT Monday...The main story for today will continue to
be the coastal low moving northward, bringing plenty of cloud cover
and chances for rain. The system has been slow to move and has
plenty of drier air to overcome, with precipitation just starting to
reach the ground across southern Vermont, where steadier
precipitation can be expected as the day progresses. The
precipitation gradient across the region continues to tighten, with
southern Vermont seeing about 0.75 inches to around and inch of rain
while northern locations will likely miss out completely. High
temperatures today will be on the cooler side, with highs generally
in the 50s today under the overcast skies. Heading into tonight,
precipitation will continue to shift eastward out of the area.
Overnight lows tonight will generally be in the upper 30s and 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 237 AM EDT Monday...Although a few lingering showers cannot be
ruled out, drier conditions are expected throughout the day Tuesday.
Seasonable temperatures are expected, with highs climbing into the
upper 50s and lower 60s with plenty of lingering cloud cover. Winds
will be relatively light during the day Tuesday, but overnight into
Wednesday a period of gusty northerly winds will be possible,
especially on Lake Champlain as a moisture-starved front approaches
the region. Temperatures will be much cooler for Wednesday under
brisk northerly flow, with highs only climbing onto the 40s and
low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 129 PM EDT Monday...Closed upper level low pressure centered
over Nova Scotia on Thursday will produce a strong northerly flow
across the forecast area with an 850mb jet of 40-45 knots and drier
air mixing down towards the surface. This may result in 10-20 mph
winds and 20-25 mph gusts, potentially even higher, 30-35 mph, on
north-south aligned valleys like the Champlain Valley as well as on
exposed higher terrain. Due to the dry air mixing efficiently down
to the surface, we`re forecasting relative humidity values to bottom
out around 30-40%, and combined with the gusty winds, this continues
to raise some concerns for critical fire weather conditions late
week. Temperatures will also be colder than seasonal normals during
the latter half of the week due to the influx of northern air with
highs only in the upper 40s and 50s and overnight lows in the 20s to
lower 40s.
Brief, multi layer ridging is anticipated for Saturday, allowing one
more mainly dry day and daytime temperatures to reach back into the
upper 50s to mid 60s before a modestly deep trough digs into the
region from the west and associated surface frontal system early
next week, bringing increasing chances of precipitation (up to 55-
75% chance Sunday night). Sunday is likely the warmest day of the
long term forecast period as warm southerly flow brings highs into
the 60s, then temperatures are expected to dip again with highs in
the mid 50s to lower 60s to start the work week with the upper level
low nearly overhead. Lows will largely fall into the mid 30s to
upper 40s early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Gusty surface winds out of the east are
expected to continue at KRUT through about 00Z Tuesday with
gusts 20-25 knots. A couple other sites (including KSLK) could
also have occasional northeasterly gusts 15-20 knots through 00Z
Tuesday, but otherwise we anticipate winds to stay below 10-15
knots over the next 24 hours with a northeasterly component for
most. Once winds decrease this evening and tonight, KRUT should
resume its southeasterly drainage wind 5-10 knots through the
rest of the TAF period, holding onto some LLWS through 06Z
Tuesday as a 30 to 45 knot low level jet lingers overhead and
causes turbulence.
Showers will be continue to fight dry surface air, so about 30%
prob of showers affecting most sites through about 12Z Tuesday,
when precipitation tapers off. Ceilings will be lowering this
afternoon and evening, eventually reaching about 2500-3000 feet
above ground level by about 00Z Tuesday for KRUT and 06Z-12Z
Tuesday elsewhere. These MVFR cigs may not even reach as far
north and west as KMSS at all. IFR ceilings are possible, best
chance at KSLK and/or KRUT, though confidence is low at this
time of IFR ceilings occurring, at least persistently. If IFR
were to occur, it`s would be during the window 06Z-15Z Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
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