521
FXUS61 KBTV 141908
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
308 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 307 PM EDT Tuesday...
Rutland and Windsor counties are in a severe thunderstorm watch
until 02 UTC and updated with enhanced wording. Reduced areal
coverage of small hail/gusty wind wording across our central area,
given the lack of instability and clouds. Also, added fog into the
grids tonight.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 307 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. Monitoring the potential for strong to locally severe
thunderstorms across Rutland and Windsor counties thru 8 PM
this evening.
2. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday through Friday, as boundary remains draped across our
forecast area.
3. Warm and breezy weather for Saturday, then rainy Saturday
night through Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 307 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Radar imagery shows clutter of moderate showers with
embedded rumbles moving into the CPV, while Rutland/Windsor counties
are in the warm sector with temps well into the mid/upper 70s. A
sharp boundary remains draped acrs our cwa this aftn, which is
separating temps in the 50s north to mid 70s south, along with
favorable llvl convergence and turning of wind profiles. GOES-19 mid
lvl water vapor imagery indicates embedded 700-500mb vort
approaching the SLV attm, with strong synoptic scale ascent helping
with the development of cooler/higher cloud tops. Meso-analysis
shows sfc based CAPE values in the 500 to 800 J/kg over
Rutland/Windsor Counties, while best 0-1km SRH and 0-3KM SRH values
are located just north over central VT, closer to the stronger wind
fields and llvl boundary. Given the limited areal coverage of
instability and extensive cloud cover, feel the best potential for a
strong to severe thunderstorm is over Rutland/Windsor Counties thru
7 PM this evening. Primary threat would be isolated damaging wind
gusts, but there still is a non zero threat for a potential
weak/isolated tornado acrs the southern CPV thru early this evening.
Pw values are btwn 1.0 to 1.4" range, so localized heavy downpours
are likely with rainfall amounts in the 0.25 to 0.75" range, but
isolated spots near 1.0.
Tonight, any shower activity should be east of our cwa by 9 PM with
strong subsidence inversion developing behind s/w energy. This large
area of drying evident on water vapor wl result in plenty of low
level stratus clouds overnight with some areas of fog likely,
especially in climo favored areas. Even some fog is possible in the
CPV, as strong blocked flow develops with light north winds behind
rain this evening, which wl act to saturate boundary layer
conditions. Lows similar to last night in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Little change is expected in the large scale synoptic
pattern acrs the Great Lakes into the NE CONUS for Weds thru Friday,
as westerly flow aloft with embedded s/w`s continue to impact our
fa. Mid/upper lvl ridge prevails over the SE CONUS, while trof is
lingering over central-eastern Canada, helping to enhance fast 700-
500mb flow acrs our cwa. Given limited amplification, expect
stationary boundary to remained draped acrs our cwa, supporting
warmest temps over Rutland/Windsor Counties and coolest near the
International Border. Always challenging to determine amount of
cloud cover/instability in the pattern, as soundings show plenty of
llvl moisture below 850mb lingering on Weds and again on Thurs for
most of the day. Greatest potential for a few embedded rumbles of
thunder wl be Essex County, NY into central/southern VT each aftn.
The latest trends have better probability of sfc based CAPE values
>500 J/kg mostly south of our cwa on Weds, as deep layer moisture
prevails acrs our cwa. Temps mainly in the mid 50s MSS to mid 70s
VSF, but this could be high, as outflow from this evenings
convection and clouds could produce cooler temps in the CT River
Valley on Weds. Little change in temps are expected on Thurs as
another embedded s/w and weak 1004mb low pres tracks along llvl
thermal boundary to produce more showers and embedded thunderstorms.
If more sun develops than anticipated temps could be well into the
70s on Thurs, especially given progged 925mb temps in the 12-17C
range. Pw values in the 1.0 to 1.30" does support localized heavy
downpours are possible, both Weds and Thurs afternoon, and given
multiple rounds of precip, combined with some additional high
elevation snowmelt, some sharp rises on central/northern waterways
are likely thru Friday. No flooding is expected, but high flows wl
need to be watched.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The weather pattern remains active going into the
weekend, but any threat for hazardous conditions remains low. The
next system to impact our area will take the form of a strengthening
surface low lifting northeastward through southeastern Canada. Ahead
of the low, temperatures will be warmer than normal for Saturday
amid the increasing southerly flow, especially over our western
counties. High temps will be in the mid 60s to low 70s, with breezy
south winds increasing through the day. The best window for
increased south winds will occur late Saturday into Saturday night,
before the steady rain begins. The south/southwest orientation of
the low-level jet will favor gusty winds over the Saint Lawrence
Valley, off the northern slopes of the Adirondacks, and channelled
up the northern Champlain Valley, where gusts in the range of 20 to
30+ knots are possible...locally higher over the Saint Lawrence
Valley.
The cold front will move through from west to east Saturday night
into Sunday, bringing a widespread soaking rainfall. The timing of
the frontal passage will limit destabilization, thus limiting in
turn thunderstorm potential. National Blend of Models thunderstorm
probabilities cap out on Sunday under 10%. While our QPF forecast
does not extend through Sunday, probabilistic data points to the
most likely QPF range from Saturday night through Sunday between
0.25 and 0.5 inch, which would not create widespread hydro concerns.
A look at the MMEFS ensemble river forecasts for the longer range
show rises in rivers towards the end of the week into the weekend,
but these rises remain well within banks. Given the multiple
chances for rain coming up, we will continue to keep a close eye on
rivers but no issues are currently anticipated.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Showers with embedded thunderstorms will
continue to move through the forecast area this afternoon into this
evening. The highest instability remains over our southern
counties, so have limited mention of thunderstorms to just the KRUT
and KSLK TAFs, where confidence is the highest. Thunderstorm threat
will be highest through 21Z at KRUT, and through 20Z at KSLK,
afterwhich showers will continue but thunderstorm threat diminishes.
Showers will generally come to an end between 22Z and 04Z, followed
by lowering ceilings through the remainder of the night as low-level
moisture is trapped under a inversion. This will lead to widespread
IFR ceilings between 08Z and 14Z, with some areas of LIFR ceilings
possible. Visibilities may also lower with some mist around, but
confidence is lower on reduced visibilities than reduced ceilings.
Nevertheless, cannot alltogether rule out some visibilities below
1SM, especially between 09Z and 12Z at KSLK and/or KMPV. Winds will
be quite variable across the forecast area with a slow moving
frontal boundary draped overhead. Most TAF sites will see winds
initially start from the south around 5-10 knots, becoming
southwest/west toward 00Z, and then light and variable towards 12Z.
Some gusts 15 to 20 knots are expected through 00Z. One exception
will be KMSS, where lightnortheast/north winds will prevail the
entire TAF period. Another exception will be the northern Champlain
Valley including KBTV and KPBG, which are starting off with winds
from the northwest and northeast respectively, but will both see
winds trend light and variable after 00Z.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 344 AM EDT Tuesday...
Incoming warmer air is presently forecast to approach daily
record values. The most likely dates for near or broken records
will be today with mild overnight air leading to high minimum
temperatures. Below are some of the daily records in jeopardy of
being broken (current forecast at or within 3 degrees of the
record).
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
April 14:
KBTV: 54/2023
KPBG: 51/1964
KSLK: 47/1964
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Duell/Taber
AVIATION...Duell
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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