205
FXUS61 KBTV 291852
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
152 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region this afternoon and
evening, dropping temperatures back below freezing and bringing a
few snow showers. Gusty winds will develop and could cause
additional isolated power outages. Through the rest of the week, our
weather will remain wintry with cold temperatures many chances for
snow showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 144 PM EST Monday...The freezing rain has mostly ended as
temperatures have risen above freezing in most places. A few of the
protected higher elevations in eastern Vermont and southern Essex
County NY remain around freezing but any steady precipitation that
could fall as freezing rain has ended. The cold front is quickly
moving across the region and will put an end to any lingering
freezing rain threat by mid-afternoon. Temperatures should briefly
rise above freezing after its passage in eastern Vermont as mixing
and westerly downsloping will cause surface temperatures to warm
slightly. However, this will be brief as there will be strong cold
air advection behind the front so it will likely not melt all the
ice in the trees in many areas.
Strong winds will develop behind the front, particularly in the St.
Lawrence Valley due to channeled flow and the strongest jet being
situated over northern New York. Gusts between 40-50 mph are
expected in the St. lawrence Valley, while they will mostly be in
the 25-40 mph range elsewhere. This could cause isolated power
outages, particularly in the St. Lawrence Valley where the strongest
winds will occur and in areas east of the Greens that will still
have ice loading in the trees and powerlines.
Some scattered snow showers will move through along the initial cold
front this afternoon, and the heaviest ones could quickly coat roads
and other surfaces. The extent of these should be relatively limited
in coverage and confined to more northern areas. A secondary cold
front/trough axis moves through this evening and will bring another
round of snow showers. Enhancement from Lake Ontario will cause some
of these to be heavy again, and combined with strong winds, there
should be quick reductions in visibility in these. These will weaken
and become more scattered as they move east into Vermont. Winds
quickly become westerly overnight and that will cause any Lake
Ontario moisture to quickly move to the south of the region.
Overall, accumulations will be light but they could be pretty
impactful. These snow showers transition into upslope snow showers
later in the night.
Temperatures will quickly fall below freezing this afternoon and
evening behind the front and this will cause any untreated surfaces
to quickly freeze. While a flash freeze is not expected, the
combination of temperatures falling below freezing, initially wet
surfaces and snow showers will create slippery travel in places.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 144 PM EST Monday...Continued upslope snow showers will occur
Monday night through Tuesday night from wrap around moisture.
Westerly to northwesterly flow will keep most of the moisture from
the Great Lakes to the south. Flow looks to be very unblocked during
this time, so the highest amounts should fall along and east of the
summits. Mostly westerly flow will favor the far northern Greens for
seeing the most snow, particularly around Jay Peak. In the far
northern Greens, 3-6 inches are possible but this will be confined
to areas right around the terrain and most areas will see under an
inch. Strong winds and cold temperatures should cause wind chills to
range between 0 and -15 Tuesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 144 PM EST Monday...Broad cyclonic flow will dominate our
region`s weather for the end of the work week and through the
weekend with periods of snow showers expected. No major storm
systems are expected, with the best chances for accumulating snow
being across the higher terrain and areas downwind of Lake Ontario.
Temperatures will be average about 10-15 degrees below normal
through the period, with highs mainly in the teens to low 20s, and
lows in the single digits above and below zero.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18z Tuesday...Aviation conditions are mainly MVFR to
IFR, except locally VFR at KPBG. Changeable flight rules are
expected across the various terminals while precipitation makes
a transition back towards snow as temperatures cool and
precipitation returns with a cold front shifting east. This will
also cause winds to trend towards a west wind. Visibilities in
snow will likely fall between 1-4SM, and ceilings could range
between 400-1300 ft agl depending in part with warm temperatures
over snow and ice with winds slackening near the front. Pockets
of LLWS will continue to occur, mainly east of the Adirondacks,
potentially impacting KPBG, and more likely impacting KMPV with
southwest winds at 2000 ft agl ranging between 35 and 45 knots.
Wind speeds at the surface will more noticeably increase after
00z, with speeds 9 to 15 knots, locally to 20 knots over KMSS
and gusts 20 to 26 knots, or up to 33 knots at KMSS.
A few areas will likely break out to VFR beyond 21z. As winds
become more northwesterly after 12z, areas like KBTV could see
ceilings lower again as winds turn northwesterly. Lake effect
snow will be likely at KSLK by about 01z, and there are PROB30s
for areas like KMSS, KBTV, and KRUT for portions of the
overnight hours for any snow showers that may break off from the
main strip of snow downwind from Lake Ontario. Beyond 12z, snow
will transition towards upslope, with perhaps lingering snow at
KSLK.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
New Years Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday: MVFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will become westerly this evening and quickly increase.
Sustained winds in the 20-30KT range are expected from around
midnight to tomorrow evening. Waves will stay on the lower side
due to the westerly component of the wind, so they are only
expected to reach the 1-3 foot range for most places. Winds
will drop to around 10 KTs by late tomorrow night and waves will
drop to around and below a foot.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ026-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Haynes
MARINE...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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