538
FXUS61 KBTV 080543
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1243 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 131 PM EST Saturday...

Confidence has increased in widespread river rises due to
snowmelt this upcoming week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 131 PM EST Saturday...

1. Warm, windy and wet weather through tonight. However, no
significant impacts expected.

2. Unseasonable warmth will continue early next week,
especially on Monday and Tuesday. Little to no snow will be left
at elevations below 1000 feet.

3. Confidence in widespread river rises due to snowmelt has
increased, particularly for early to the middle part of next
week. Rivers will need to be monitored closely for river ice
movement and potential ice jams and associated flooding.

4. After a stretch of spring-like weather, more widespread
precipitation is expected to arrive for the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 131 PM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A surge of unusually warm and moist air is
making its way northward across much of the eastern US today
ahead of a high amplitude trough. At the surface, a warm front
is expected to stay hung up just to our southwest today as
surface temperatures, especially in central and eastern Vermont,
are relatively slow to rise. Also, localized colder spots near
Lake Champlain In contrast, much of northern New York is seeing
temperatures early this afternoon well into the 50s and even low
60s with dewpoints climbing into the upper 40s and low 50s.
Eventually, extreme warmth will be seen across our region by
this evening as we mix out a stubborn surface inversion with
increasing south-southwesterly flow ahead of a slow moving cold
front. Surface temperatures upstream ahead of this front in
western New York have risen into the upper 60s and low 70s with
dew points approaching 60. The warmth is impressive,
particularly in the 850-700 millibar layer. Temperatures at 850
millibars, indicative of our higher mountain summit weather,
will likely be as high as 13 degrees Celsius (55 F) later today
into this evening. Note the observed upper air data (radiosonde)
from Albany, NY at 7 AM today shows this extreme warm layer
with exactly 13 degrees at 850 millibars, which appears to be a
record through this point in the calendar year (back to 1948).

With regards to precipitation, the GOES-16 water vapor channels
show a messy scenario. Widely scattered showers are present out
ahead of batch of somewhat organized showers and thunderstorms
over southern Ontario and western New York, where clusters of
colder cloud tops can be seen within the warm sector of the
frontal system. While ample warmth and humidity will be present,
it is questionable if elevated instability will be sufficient
for thunder in northern New York and Vermont. Consistent with
the Storm Prediction Center analysis, risk of thunder generally
is higher as you go west. Signals for whether any of this
upstream convection, particularly thunderstorms, survive into
our relatively cool/stable air mass are a bit mixed. Progged
MUCAPE (Most Unstable CAPE) will possibly surge to near 100-200
J/kg as mid-levels saturate in the St. Lawrence Valley and
western Adirondacks. These areas remain most likely to see
heavier rainfall amounts than areas to the east given richer low
level moisture and convergence. However, while PWAT
(Precipitable Water) will be anomalously high, lack of
instability, fast cell motions, and modest warm cloud depths
reduce risk of heavy rainfall. Most likely amounts through
tonight will be about a third to three quarters of an inch, with
very localized spots possibly near 1", tapering off to a tenth
to a third of an inch in much of Vermont, again with localized
higher amounts exceeding a half inch especially in northeastern
areas and high terrain.

Most CAMs (Convective Allowing Models) and time of arrival
tools suggest these showers will begin after 5 PM with coverage
increasing from 6 to 9 PM across the region. They will make it
into Vermont relatively slowly given deep layer southwest flow
close to parallel with the front. The actual cold front will lag
behind this area of showers, so moist and mild southerly flow
will persist for much of the night. A final round of scattered
showers just ahead of the cold front will likely move across the
area in the early morning hours, with precipitation chances
rapidly decreasing from west to east towards daybreak as drier
air filters in. Unseasonably warm and breezy conditions tonight
will support rapid snowmelt (more on this in Key Message 3) and
ripening of higher elevation snow. Typically this could be a
foggy over snow scenario with high dewpoints in the 40s and even
low 50s, but think there may be enough wind to reduce
prevalence of fog tonight; this may need to be re-evaluated this
evening. While the southerly channeled flow in the northern
Champlain Valley will be relaxing tonight, a belt of 50 to 60
knot west-southwesterly flow in the 700 to 850 millibar layer
will be coincident with the showers overnight. Stability should
keep these strong winds from mixing effectively. However,
towards daybreak as flow becomes westerly behind the front, some
localized downslope winds will develop resulting in possible 45
to 50 MPH gusts. These will initially be east of the Adirondack
high peaks and then expand into the eastern slopes of the Green
Mountains, especially favoring western Windsor County with
expected magnitude and orientation of the low level jet.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Large scale west-southwesterly flow and a storm
track well to our north will keep us in a warm and dry weather
pattern. Temperatures tomorrow behind tonight`s cold front will
still be rather mild in the 40s in most locations, and then as
winds turn southerly again tomorrow night into Monday, we`ll see
warm air advection support temperatures surging into the mid
and upper 50s in most locations. Despite some modest southerly
winds with gusts of 15 to 25 MPH, ample sunshine alongside these
temperatures should make this a really pleasant day for outdoor
activities such as corn snow skiing and walking with a single
layer of clothing.

Tuesday will be subtly different as a backdoor cold front may
settle far enough south to flip winds to northerly during the
afternoon in our northernmost areas while southern areas see
further warming of the air mass to support highs in the low to
mid 60s. Therefore, the forecast for Monday is a bit more
certain than Tuesday with regards to high temperatures,
especially in the Champlain Valley and northern counties in
Vermont. The St. Lawrence Valley more definitely looks to see
somewhat cooler conditions on Tuesday than Monday. As of now,
across southern counties of northern New York and Vermont,
Tuesday will be another warm and sunny day, while increasing
clouds and slightly cooler weather is possible farther north.

KEY MESSAGE 3: With a prolonged period of above freezing
temperatures expected through the first half of next week, river
response is likely areawide due to runoff from snowmelt. This
weekend`s warmer weather is a preview of what`s to come, and
will likely serve as a primer for more river rises later in the
week.

Snowmelt is just starting in earnest this afternoon as
temperatures have warmed well into the 40s and even 50s from the
Champlain Valley westward. In addition, note dew points have
likewise risen above freezing (or will by later today in the
case of eastern VT). Add in gusty south/southwest winds, and
it`s the perfect recipe for snowmelt. While rivers haven`t show
a whole lot of response just yet, we do anticipate waterways
will start to rise this evening and continue overnight. The
latest river forecasts from the Northeast RFC do show a few of
our river gages (Ausable R near Ausable Forks, Otter Creek near
Center Rutland, and Mad River near Moretown) approaching or just
exceeding action stage at some point Sunday. There could be
some nuisance-type flooding of low-lying areas along these
waterways, but no significant impacts are expected.

Our bigger concern is heading forward toward the middle of next
week. This weekend`s snowmelt should slow or even stop Sunday
night as temperatures drop back close to or below freezing,
allowing rivers to recede a bit. However, this will be short
lived as we`ll warm well into the 50s and even 60s Monday,
Tuesday, and Wednesday. Like today, we`ll see warming dew points
as well, along with periods of gusty winds. Overnight
temperatures are expected to mainly stay near or above freezing,
so there won`t be a whole lot of recovery between peak snowmelt
times. The snowpack will likely take a pretty good hit; note
that the latest NOHRSC analysis shows everything melted out
below 1000 ft or so by early Tuesday morning. Higher elevations
will also see substantial loss of the pack, though how much
exactly is still hard to determine at this point. Looking at the
latest GEFS/NAEFS ensemble runs, a general 2-4 inches of SWE
loss seems reasonable through Thursday. While rainfall isn`t
expected to be overly heavy during this time frame, it will be
enough to add to the runoff. Given the prolonged period of mild
temperatures, we`re growing more confident that there will be
ice movement on area rivers next week, particularly on southern
waterways that have a better chance of seeing persistent mild
conditions. Of course, river ice break up and resultant ice jams
and any flooding are fairly unpredictable, especially this far
out in time. With that in mind, we urge anyone with interests
along area waterways to monitor future forecasts closely. As far
as open water flooding, it really takes both snowmelt and heavy
rainfall to create significant problems, but some ensemble
guidance shows rivers such as the Mad River, Ausable, and Otter
Creek potentially exceeding minor flood stage. And at the least,
waterways will be running high, even smaller tributaries and
streams.

KEY MESSAGE 4: A low pressure system centered over the Great
Lakes will track northeastward towards the middle of next week,
bringing widespread precipitation chances to the region
Wednesday into Thursday. There is still a lot of uncertainty in
regards to precipitation type at this point, both due to
temperatures and low track. The current forecast supports mostly
rain, with a brief transition to snow during the day Thursday
as a cold front pushes across the region, although there is some
guidance that supports the possibility of a wintry mix and some
freezing rain. At this point is is still too tricky to tell for
sure, as small differences in thermal profiles and surface
temperature can play a large role in the precipitation type, but
is something to monitor over the next few days as we get
closer. After the cold front Thursday, temperatures for the end
of the week look to trend closer to seasonal normals for early
March, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Gusts in the 20 kt range continue out of
the south. Another area of rain is pushing across northern New
York, briefly lowering visibilities and ceilings as it moves
through. Low level wind shear remains prevalent as winds at 2000
ft agl range between 45-55 knots out of the southwest. Ceilings
will lower and KSLK could observe some 700-1000 ft agl cloud
bases ahead of the incoming front. The main axis of the front
will shift east about 10z-16z. It will correspond with a trend
to southwest winds, a decrease in LLWS, and one last round of
light rain showers. However, after 16z, improving conditions are
expected for all terminals. Winds will remain elevated, towards
7-13 knots sustained with gusts 16-21 knots, locally increasing
towards 30 knots at KMSS about 22z Sunday.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
RA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance
SN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures today have become quite warm, particularly in
northern New York. Possible daily records for 3/7 include:

Massena (MSS)
Record High: 60|1973

Saranac Lake (SLK)
Record High: 58|1946

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Hastings/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV