661
FXUS61 KBTV 170522
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
122 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and
dry weather conditions through mid week. A cold front moving
southeastward out of Canada will usher in a cooler air mass for
Friday and the upcoming weekend. However, measurable
precipitation is generally not expected with this cold front,
allowing drought conditions to persist across our region.
The potential for overnight frost/freeze conditions looks
increasingly likely this weekend across the higher terrain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Wednesday...The prolonged stretch of dry
weather will continue across the region as surface high pressure
and upper level ridging continue to remain the dominant weather
feature. Scattered mid to high level clouds associated with a
coastal low in the mid-Atlantic continue to move northward
through the area this morning, and should continue through the
day today. Some radiational fog is expected with the high
continuing to crest overhead tonight, however, with the lack of
moisture, fog development is not expected to be as widespread as
the previous night. The best chances for fog this morning will
be east of the Green Mountains and along the Connecticut River
Valley. Today will feature nearly identical weather to today,
with increased cloud cover and seasonably warm temperatures in
the mid to upper 70s. Some high and mid level cloud cover
associated with a decaying coastal low in the Mid- Atlantic will
continue to overspread the region, however dry weather will
continue to persist. Overnight lows will be milder compared to
the last few nights, with temperatures in the mid 40s to upper
50s expected.
Thursday will feature some clearing skies as a trough attempts
to dig into the region from the northwest and break down the
persistent high. Temperatures will gradually increase into the
upper 70s to low 80s. Clearing skies in the afternoon will see a
return to increasing clouds by the evening as the trough
approaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will continue to
break down Thursday night, with southerly flow across the
region. A weak cold front will approach the region Thursday
night, with little to no moisture associated with it. Some
slight chances for showers will be possible, but any
precipitation actually reaching the surface will be nonexistent
or negligible, with drought conditions persisting across the
region. The best chance for any precipitation (20-35%) will be
across the Adirondacks and northern Greens behind the front.
Models show any moisture increases will be behind the front and
after the wind shift which indicates orographic influences. As a
result, the precipitation will likely be terrain driven upslope
based with any precipitation hard to achieve in the Champlain
Valley. Temperatures overnight will generally drop into the 40s
and low 50s areawide. Highs on Friday will be dramatically
different with values 15-20 degrees lower than Thursday in the
60s. Clearing skies will return with plenty of sunshine
expected. As winds shift to the north/northwest, winds in the
Champlain Valley and at summit levels could be gusty up to 15 to
20 mph with some channeling enhancement possible in the
Champlain Valley. Winds do not look to be near fire weather
thresholds with the current forecast, but we will continue to
monitor the potential for any fire weather concerns as we get
closer to the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 158 PM EDT Tuesday...Post frontal cold air advection is
favored to maximize early Friday with northerly flow and gusts
15 to 25 mph. Strongest gusts will be in the Champlain Valley
and on ridges. While there will be marginal fire weather
concerns in very localized spots given ongoing drought, there
are still leaves on trees tempering any stronger concerns at
this time. Widespread frost will be possible outside of the
Champlain Valley Friday night/Saturday morning as winds decrease
with high pressure centering overhead again. Model output
statistical guidance continues to point to lows around freezing
for the Adirondacks and portions of northeastern Vermont with
mid 30s for most locations and upper 30s to low 40s in the
Champlain Valley. There are some indications that the pattern
could begin to shift early next week, but will refrain from
getting too hopeful for meaningful rainfall. A system could drag
along the northern edge of the ridge bringing some showers as
early as Monday. It remains to be see, however, if the ridge
will hold stronger and shunt these chances more northward.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...The aviation challenge continues to be
associated with fog potential this morning. Current GOES-19 IR
satl imagery shows mid/upper lvl clouds spreading into central
VT, while current obs show a 3 to 5 degree spread between
temps/dwpts. Also hindering fog development is a progged 10 to
15 knot south/southwest wind at 200 to 400 feet agl. So based on
these observations have just utilized tempo for IFR fog at
SLK/MPV btwn roughly 08z/09z to 11z/12z with MVFR br at EFK/MSS
for a couple hours near sunrise. Otherwise, any shallow ground
fog will lift by 12z with vfr conditions prevailing at all sites
with south winds developing at 3 to 6 knots.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Taber
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