820
FXUS61 KBTV 160622
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
122 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 120 AM EST Monday...
The light snow showers this morning look on track. Concern for some
light freezing drizzle for Tuesday morning has increased and could
have impacts on the morning commute.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 120 AM EST Monday...
1. Light snow showers possible this morning.
2. Snow, rain, and freezing rain possible late tonight into
Tuesday morning.
3. Snow likely to impact parts of northern New York and Vermont
around midweek to late week, though uncertainty remains in regards
to precipitation type and areal coverage.
4. Seasonable late week and weekend conditions expected with
additional chances of precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 120 AM EST Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak shortwave will interact with limited moisture
this morning which should be sufficient to create some scattered
light snow showers. Snowfall totals will be limited to a dusting to
a few tenths of an inch, at most, but will coincide with the morning
commute. This could create for some lower visibilities on area
roadways and some slick conditions cannot be ruled out for roads
that become snow covered. These showers will dissipate by mid-
morning with above freezing temperatures and drier weather expected
this afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2: It`s beginning to look like tonight into Tuesday morning
could be quite messy in terms of precipitation type. We expect
scattered snow showers to move into the region around midnight. The
thermal profiles at this time show a saturated DGZ but the DGZ
itself is about 10,000 ft AGL which is going to be a significant
factor as we head into Tuesday morning. As the overnight period
progresses, we will start to see drier air work into the DGZ while
the 10,000 ft below the DGZ will remain largely saturated. The
concern is that as we lose the ice nuclei, we could see a transition
from snow showers to freezing drizzle between 4 AM and 10 AM across
portions of northern New York and Vermont. The period where surface
temperatures are below freezing and an unsaturated DGZ coincide for
any one location should only be 1-2 hours but could allow for
freezing drizzle accumulations of a few hundreths of an inch to
occur. If the timing is just right, it could coincide with the
morning commute and lead to slick roadways. The good news, however,
is that temperatures on Tuesday are expected to warm quickly into
the upper 30s to lower 40s which will allow for any freezing rain
that does fall to melt and no longer pose a threat to travel.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Wednesday and Thursday, a surface low pressure is
expected to slide eastward across the Northeast with a frontal
boundary moving through the region as an upper level low stretches
across the Great Lakes. We`ll also likely have high pressure
blocking and dry air developing over eastern Canada, which could put
northern New York and Vermont right on the line between dry weather
and precipitation. The deterministic GFS continues to be the most
aggressive with dry air across our region, keeping the low and its
precipitation shunted just to our south. The deterministic
ECMWF brings precipitation furthest north across the forecast
area, while Canadian and NAM solutions fall in between at the
moment. Precipitation type is also highly uncertain, though most
models seem to agree that if precip does overcome dry air and
reach into our forecast area, we`ll be on the northern end of
the system and see mostly snow. Occasional freezing rain, sleet,
and rain are not out of the question, though as highs Wednesday
and Thursday reach into the 30s and lows in the teens to lower
20s. At the moment, forecasting anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of
snow with this system, though we urge you to stay tuned to
subsequent forecasts in the coming days.
KEY MESSAGE 4: Temperatures will be near normal from late week likely
into the weekend but still cold enough to support some winter
precipitation. On Thursday, shortwave ridging builds behind midweek
system discussed by Key Message 3. Late Friday through late Saturday-
Saturday night, a more significant trough digging across the central
U.S. and Great Lakes with a surface low moving across Great Lakes
and eventually the northeast. Decent mid-upper level dynamics on the
backside of the upper ridge with the approaching shortwave should
allow for some decent lift and overrunning. The models still have a
spread in the details of the evolution of this northern system and a
southern stream system. Separate systems mean lighter QPF while
merging (as suggested by some of the ensembles) would equal more
QPF, especially in southern areas with temperatures profiles around
0 C.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Light snow is expected this morning and
again late tonight into Tuesday morning. Low pressure is
currently cross New York State tonight and may bring some
scattered to isolated light snow showers to KBTV, KSLK, KPBG,
KMPV, and KRUT for a period around 07Z through 13Z Monday. Some
intermittent IFR conditions are possible at these sites, but
currently thinking most impacts would be in the form of
occasional MVFR ceilings and vis. The energy associated with
this system will be lifting northward as the surface feature
tracks eastward causing a surface boundary to get tied up in the
Adirondacks/Greens as it washes out, resulting in occasional
MVFR cigs or SCT cloud layers around 2500-3500 feet above ground
level throughout the day Monday. Winds currently light and
variable to calm will turn southerly to southwesterly later
tonight/early Monday morning, remaining 5-15 knots through much
of the 24 hour TAF period. One exception will be KMSS, which
could have a more northeasterly to easterly wind direction until
Monday evening/night. KRUT will also maintain its southeasterly
drainage wind 5-15 knots for the majority of the next 24 hours.
Around 00Z-06Z Monday, we`ll start to see most ceilings lower
to MVFR levels in a more sustained and widespread manner ahead
of our next light snow chance late Monday night into Tuesday
morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance FZDZ,
Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Chance RA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SN, Chance RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV AWOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Clay/Storm
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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