704
FXUS61 KBTV 110538
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1238 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 213 PM EST Tuesday...
No significant changes to the current winter weather advisory or
snow amounts. Forecast remains largely on track.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 213 PM EST Tuesday...
1. A widespread light to moderate snowfall remains on track
for this evening into tonight. Heaviest snowfall rates will likely
affect the evening commute from northern New York eastward into the
Champlain Valley and n-central VT. Expect slow travel.
2. Temperatures will be seasonable through most of the week,
then less cold into the weekend.
3. Warmer temperatures and chances for precipitation are
expected this weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 213 PM EST Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An Alberta clipper system is beginning to push
into the region from west to east. This light to moderate long
duration snowfall is expected to drop between 2 to 6 inches of
generally fluffy snow this evening into tonight. A Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect through 7 AM Wednesday for the St.
Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks, and from 2 PM today
through 7 AM Wednesday for the northern Champlain Valley and
portions in Vermont along and east of the Green Mountains.
Guidance continues to prog a period of enhanced mid-level
frontogenesis associated with waa this evening, supporting a few
hours of heavy snow. The heaviest snow bands will arrive during
the Tuesday evening commute, between 2-6 PM across northern New
York, and 5-9 PM across the Champlain Valley and northern
Greens. Snow showers are ongoing across northeastern New York,
and should start in the Champlain Valley by 3-4 PM. The HREF
shows this band could have 1 to 1.5 inch per hour rates,
resulting in 1 to 3 inches of moderate heavy snow in this short
window moving from west to east. This will likely yield
widespread slow travel conditions due to snow covered roads and
vsby down to 1/4 mile late this afternoon and this evening.
Overall, the moisture content of the system is only modest with
PWATs in both hi res guidance to 0.5." It will still be quite
difficult to eek out higher totals above 6". Another limitation
to higher totals will be the presence of a 850mb southwest low
level jet. Model soundings denote a 35-45kt jet at 850mb with a
mean column wind near 20-30kts. Mountain summits will likely see
gusts up to 30 knots. This jet will shred dendrites, but will
aid in enhancing frontogenesis on the leading edge of the
system. Shadowing from the Adirondacks will likely lead to
reduced snowfall in the 2-4" range across the southern Champlain
Valley including wrn Addison and Rutland Counties, and eastern
Essex County NY.
As the center of the low shifts east and the surface low
deepens, there is a chance for a brief dry slot to develop
across the southern Champlain Valley and southern Vermont which
will lead to snow showers tapering off. The snow by late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning will turn more showery as the main
forcing shifts east and northwest blocked flow focuses the snow
into the more upslope favored areas along the western facing
slopes of the northern Greens and northwestern Adirondacks.
Winds will continue to turn north during the day Wednesday with
stronger caa surging south into the Champlain Valley as an
upper low slides east. A brief period of resurging snow showers
in the CPV is possible by Wednesday afternoon/evening with
froude numbers still below 0.5. An additional half inch to an
inch is possible with these upslope snow showers and perhaps
into portions of the Vermont Champlain Valley that are closer to
Lake Champlain given most of the lake is currently frozen over.
Additional snow amounts from upslope snow showers in the
western facing northern Adirondacks and northern Greens will be
in the 2-4" range. These snow showers will be fluffy with snow
ratios in the 15-20:1 range. Some additional winter travel
conditions can be expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night, especially across the higher terrain.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Behind the mid week clipper system, temperatures
will return to more seasonable levels with 925mb temperatures
near -5C to -15C. The prolonged trough responsible for our
extended cold snap will be off to our east which will limit any
precipitation chances as we look to sit atop a 1025mb high that
will swing to our south. Temperatures will continue to rise into
the weekend ahead of a southern stream of energy that will
approach the region by next week. Probabilities of reaching
above freezing peak on Sunday at 60- 80%, higher across southern
Vermont. Overnight lows may still be cold through this week as
clearing overnight skies, low overnight dewpoints, and a fresh
snowpack from today and tomorrow lead to decent radiative
cooling conditions. Precipitation chances will be limited
through the rest of the week with high pressure overhead,
however, a quick moving shortwave late Friday could provide
enough forcing for some chances of snow showers across the
higher terrain.
KEY MESSAGE 3: By late this weekend into the beginning of next week,
temperatures will continue to warm, with above freezing temperatures
expected across the region after a prolonged stretch of cold across
the region. Daytime high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday look to
reach into the mid to upper 30s, with some locations possibly
nearing 40. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding
precipitation chances for this weekend into Monday, although global
deterministic guidance continues to trend towards a drier solution.
Probabilistic guidance still shows the potential for some light snow
across the region, although only a 20 percent chance of seeing over
an inch of snow throughout this time period. Some additional chances
for precipitation will be possible early next week, with some rain
possibly mixing into lower elevations given warmer temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...After a snowy evening, the dry slot has
moved in and widespread steady snow is coming to an end.
Additional snow showers will redevelop after 18Z today. These
will be mainly tied to higher terrain within developing
northwesterly flow, especially over the northwestern slopes of
the northern Adirondacks and northwestern Vermont. Most TAF
sites will see predominantly MVFR ceilings continue over the
next 24 hours, although KMSS and KSLK will see some continued
IFR ceilings through 12Z. After 12Z, ceilings at KMSS and KSLK
will lift to MVFR. Visibilities will be predominantly VFR,
however some brief periods of MVFR visibilities are possible as
snow showers redevelop this afternoon.
Winds will be variable across the area, driven mainly by terrain.
The Champlain Valley will see initially gusty southerly flow weaken
through 12Z, becoming light northerly after 12Z. Northerly flow in
the Champlain Valley will then increase to 15 to 20 knots after 00Z.
Outside of the Champlain Valley, south/southwest winds around 5
knots will become light westerly around 12Z, then northwesterly at 5-
15 knots for the remainder of the 24 hour TAF period.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 912 AM EST Tuesday...
In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees
was January 22nd. The next time we are forecasting temperatures
rising above 32 is this Sunday, February 15th. If that forecast
holds, that would be 23 days in a row below freezing. Sub-freezing
temperature streaks surpassing 22 days are fairly unusual in the
Burlington area, last happening January-February 2015 and only
occurring 25 times going back across the last 141 winter
seasons.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if
you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
VTZ001>008-010-016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
NYZ026>031-034-087.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Danzig
AVIATION...Duell
CLIMATE...Duell/Myskowski
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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