285
FXUS61 KBTV 082328
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
628 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 147 PM EST Sunday...
The entire region has been added to a Cold Weather Advisory through
10 AM for wind chills between 20 to 30 below zero, particularly near
sunrise tomorrow. No significant changes outside of the cold have
been made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 147 PM EST Sunday...
1. Bitterly cold wind chills and temperatures prevail through
Monday across our entire region with wind chill values in the
-15F to -30F range, especially near sunrise Monday morning.
Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is
exposed to these temperatures.
2. A Clipper system will bring more light snows to the region
Tuesday into Wednesday with light accumulations expected.
3. Warming trend end of the week into next weekend. Potential
storm Sunday into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 147 PM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dangerously cold wind chills are expected to continue
through tomorrow morning as our arctic air mass peaks over the
region this evening and tonight. A Cold Weather Advisory is in
effect through 10 AM tomorrow morning for wind chills between -20F
and -30F, mainly in the early morning hours. The overall temperature
forecast itself is quite challenging, even with a 1035mb area of
high pressure continuing to slide eastward tonight with
northwesterly flow. The complexity stems from persisting low level
moisture and a potential inversion that is expected to develop later
this evening across much of the region. A thin area of low-level
clouds, particularly across the Adirondacks and in areas east of the
Greens could inhibit efficient radiative cooling processes. However,
with such a strong arctic air mass in place, and generally weakening
winds, the colder/deeper protected valleys should decouple allowing
for a steepening of the lapse rates in the low levels, while
mountain summits stay slightly warmer resulting in a sharp and
shallow thermal inversion. Have kept temperatures low with colder
guidance in the more protected valleys with temperatures falling to
the single digits and teens below zero. The coldest pockets look to
be across the Adirondacks and southern St. Lawrence Valley where
previous nights have shown temperatures in the 5th percentile by
sunrise, as well as in northeastern Vermont where recent climatology
have shown locations like Morrisville and East Haven, VT can
decouple with drastically lower temperatures as compared to the
surrounding hills and communities. Expect these locations to have the
highest confidence in Cold Weather Advisory conditions. Under the
inversion, winds will slacken but remain breezy with occasional
gusts east of the Greens to 10 mph, enhancing wind chills to the -
20F to -30F range.
Temperatures will "warm" Monday with more clearing skies and
diurnally driven temperatures into the teens, and perhaps near 20,
despite the high moving directly overhead. Another challenging
temperature forecast exists for Monday night with a similar setup to
tonight, featuring mid-high clouds and slackening winds. Have kept
temperatures relatively close to prior forecasts with cooler
guidance, however, there does appear to be somewhat more confidence
in some more cloud cover and subsequently less radiative cooling. So
temperatures in this package are slightly warmer, but still depict
cold temperatures, mainly in the more protected valleys. Adding to
the cold potential, winds will weaken making decoupling more likely,
however, they will turn towards the south/southwest as the high
moves overhead, which could draw in just enough "warmer" southerly
flow to counteract the decoupled temperature falls.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A potential clipper like low pressure system continues
to be progged by models to track through the area Tuesday into
Tuesday night with chances for accumulating light snow. The system
will be moving into a very dry air mass left behind by the high
responsible for our cold this weekend, which will limit the overall
snow potential at the onset with a decent dry layer in the low to
mid levels. However, fairly strong warm thermal advection through
the 850-700mb level, coupled with stronger mid level frontogenesis,
and a brief window of PWATs near 0.5 inches, should be enough to
sustain a period of light snow across much of the region. The DGZ
base in the current model soundings is generally high up to 6000ft
or so, with a deeper DGZ layer than previous runs which could
sustain snow showers for a longer period of time if trends hold. The
forcing, however, rapidly shifts east Tuesday night, along with most
associated available moisture. NBM probabilistic guidance has
slightly increased the chances for measurable snow with a 60-80%
chance for most of the region of seeing 2 inches or more of snow
(lower probabilities across SVT), and now up to 25-50% chance of 4
inches or more, mainly in the upslope regions of the northern
Greens. The higher end probabilities have seen an upwards trend over
recent models, however, they also have plateaued with probabilities
dropping off rapidly beyond 4 inches. The snow will become more
showery into Wednesday with showers becoming confined to the upslope
western facing slopes of the Greens. Northwest flow and potential
blocking may lead to lingering snow showers in the higher terrain
into Wednesday afternoon/evening. The main hazards from this quick
moving system will be potential impacts to the Tuesday
afternoon/evening commutes.
KEY MESSAGE 3: No changes in the medium-range guidance today featuring
a Northeast trough Thursday/Friday being replaced by a building
ridge Saturday into Sunday. Any lingering mountain snow showers on
Thursday and Friday will be shut down by Friday night as surface
high pressure builds into the region for the majority of the
weekend. High temps remain forecast to warm from the 20s
Thursday/Friday to low/mid 30s for the weekend with lows ranging
through the teens. At the end of the forecast period signals are
there for a potential storm system late Sunday into Monday, but
guidance is not in good agreement with the timing and placement.
Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Widespread VFR conditions across northern
New York and Vermont this evening as skies have cleared near
completely. As we decouple tonight under high pressure,
however, models show a thick column of low level moisture stuck
under an inversion, mainly at site KSLK, as the atmosphere up
to the 900mb level re-saturates. Hard to say exactly how
widespread the low level moisture will be, since many of the
typically more reliable high resolution models are being too
aggressive with clouds at the moment despite the reality of
clear skies outside. The moisture exists, however, it is not yet
producing observable clouds. Outside of the Adirondacks, KEFK
and KRUT also have the potential to have some on and off lower
ceilings, but elsewhere we`re anticipating VFR to prevail.
Winds are expected to remain under 10 knots over the next 24
hours, largely terrain-driven this evening with an overall
northerly flow across Vermont and the Champlain Valley. In the
Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley, however, we will likely see
more of a light southwesterly flow, which could help enhance the
moisture at KSLK. A brief low/mid level jet developing over
eastern and southern Vermont will additionally bring periods of
LLWS to KRUT overnight.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday Night: MVFR and IFR. Likely SN, Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: MVFR. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if
you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for VTZ001>011-
016>021.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ026>031-
034-035-087.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Lahiff
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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