723
FXUS61 KBTV 210238
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1038 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm daytime temperatures are expected to prevail today
into the upcoming work week with highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s with lows ranging from the mid 30s to upper 40s. The next
chance for showers arrives with a cold front late Wednesday into
Thursday, along with a period of breezy conditions. Cooler
temperatures are anticipated for Thursday and Friday with some
lingering showers possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1038 PM EDT Sunday...Made more substantial changes to
overnight temperatures given likely persistence of the pattern
which is resulting in most spots being rather mild with the
combination of clouds and wind. Sheltered locations south and
east of the cloudy skies are much colder and have already neared
forecast lows, so it remains a hard forecast to pin down.
Stronger winds aloft present in northern New York will be
shifting eastward over the next few hours before weakening
towards 4 AM. As such, some cooling towards daybreak may be
possible where temperatures are currently steady.
Previous Discussion...
Very dry conditions persist this afternoon with some southerly
winds gusting to around 20 mph. RH in the 25-40% range this
afternoon will increase as winds decouple overnight. Winds over
Lake Champlain are dipping a little from this morning, but will
increase again tonight as a weak low level jet drops down out of
Canada; model guidance shows 30-45 mph in the 925-850mb layer
through around midnight before energy tracks east of Vermont.
These winds will do little in the way of surfacing for most
spots, but those near the lake could see some breezes.
Otherwise, faster winds aloft will keep overnight temperatures
milder with lows generally in the 40s and keep the boundary
layer mixed enough to preclude fog formation for most locations
outside of the lower Connecticut River Valley.
Gradients relax Monday/Monday night with light winds and return
to truly benign conditions outside of some patchy fog late
Monday night into early Tuesday morning in the usual spots like
the Connecticut River Valley and around Montpelier. Temperatures
will remain warm Monday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s
with overnight lows in the 40s to around 50 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 341 PM EDT Sunday...Above normal temperatures will continue on
Tuesday as deep layer ridging remains in place across the North
Country. Highs are expected to warm into the 70s regionwide with
mild overnight lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Southerly winds
will begin increase Tuesday afternoon with winds in the 5 to 15 mph
range with winds continuing through the overnight period as the
surface high pressure system begins to shift eastward.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 341 PM EDT Sunday...We`ve got one more day of above normal
temperatures slated for Wednesday with high temperatures once again
warming into the 70s regionwide. With the surface high pressure
shifting eastward and a cold front beginning to approach from the
west, a decent pressure gradient is forecasted to develop across our
region. Given the orientation of the Champlain (north to south) and
St. Lawrence (southwest to northeast), we could see winds gust in
excess of 20 mph for the duration of the day on Wednesday. Skies
will generally be clear through the daylight hours with clouds
streaming into the region by sunset. Any rain chances should hold
off until the overnight hours but chances for measurable rainfall
are slightly lower than previously thought. The latest global
guidance is showing the upper level ridge being increasingly
stubborn and preventing the main upper level trough axis from
sliding into the North Country. While we weren`t expecting much in
terms of precipitation initially, it now looks like it`ll be even
less. What we are watching more closely will be the winds that will
develop ahead of the front Wednesday night. A strong low level jet
is expected to develop as the pressure gradient continues to tighten
and when you couple this with a strong thermal gradient we tend to
over perform on gusty winds making it down to the surface. Based on
the latest guidance (no high- res guidance out that far just yet), we
could easily see a few locations gust between 30 and 40 mph. We will
watch this trend in the coming days and adjust winds up or down as
needed.
Temperatures across the region on Thursday will be noticeably cooler
with high temperatures generally 20-25 degrees cooler than those
observed on Wednesday. Dry air should allow for skies to cool
quickly but we will likely maintain some northwesterly winds in the
wake of the front until surface high pressure settles into the
region Thursday night. Seasonal temperatures will continue through
next weekend with the possibility for a stray shower or two. All
global guidance shows a second cold front sometime next weekend but
vary drastically in timing.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Main aviation concern will be a period of
LLWS through about 10Z as a low level jet moves through the
North Country. An increase in moisture at the nose of this jet
is resulting in some ceilings in northern New York, and there
is a low chance (under 20%) of brief MVFR ceilings around 12Z at
SLK. Otherwise, winds and cloud cover will keep fog chances
minimal. South/southwest winds, especially at MSS/SLK/PBG/BTV,
will continue through the period. These sites may see gusts to
around 20kts at times, most commonly in the 15Z to 20Z period.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds are breezy over Lake Champlain with sensors reporting
gusts 20 to 28 kts. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for
the broad and northern portions of Lake Champlain. A lull is
possible this evening, but winds will increase again overnight
as a low level jet moves across the North Country with speeds
returning to around/above 25kts.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Boyd/Kutikoff
MARINE...Boyd
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