794
FXUS61 KBTV 281803
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
103 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers will continue through this evening, with the
highest coverage in the upslope areas. High pressure briefly builds
in for tomorrow before the next storm system arrives for Sunday and
Sunday night. It looks to bring light snow accumulations to most
areas, with a potential change to rain in the valleys. An active
wintry weather pattern will continue behind it to kick off December.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1258 PM EST Friday...Scattered snow showers have developed
across the region and they will persist through the evening. While
they will be most concentrated in the typical upslope areas, there
will be deep enough instability that they will make their way down
into the valleys at times. Dry air in the lowest levels will cause
some sublimation, but the heavier snow showers will easily reach the
ground. The heaviest snow showers could briefly could contain rates
up to around an inch per hour and will dramatically reduce
visibilities, but they will not be strong or organized enough to
become squalls. The higher terrain should see couple inches, though
totals will increase heading north along the spine of the Greens.
The most favored areas around Jay Peak could see up to around a
foot. Unblocked flow will favor accumulations on and just downwind
of the summits, and strong winds will help push the snow east. Winds
will gust in the 15 to 35 mph range today, with the highest gusts
expected over parts of northern New York.
Ridging briefly builds in for Saturday and Saturday night, putting
an end to the upslope snow. Skies should gradually clear during the
day, and the clearing should even reach the Northeast kingdom by the
end of the day. However, by this point, high clouds will be
beginning to enter the region out ahead of the next storm system.
There looks to be a brief period where there will be somewhat clear
skies and relatively calm winds for the first half of Saturday
night, and temperatures could quickly fall if the boundary layer
decouples. Lower clouds and stronger boundary layer winds will
arrive later in the night and end the temperatures decreases for
most places.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1258 PM EST Friday...A fast moving storm system will track
right up the St. Lawrence Valley Sunday into Sunday night, bringing
another round of precipitation. It looks to start as a quick period
of snow for everywhere Sunday morning before a strong southwesterly
low-level jet arrives. The jet will cause downsloping and mostly end
the snow in the broad valleys. It will also cause strong warm air
advection and raise temperatures in the valleys a few degrees above
freezing. This will likely turn any precipitation there over to
rain, while it stays cold enough in the higher terrain to remain
snow. As cold air moves in on the backside, precipitation changes
back to snow but by that point, dry air will quickly infiltrate and
put an end to the precipitation. A rough estimate of the snow levels
during the warmest part of the system is around 1,500-2,000 feet,
but that will likely still need to be refined. Accumulations of a
couple inches are likely outside the valleys. The strong low level
jet will cause gusty winds. Mixing should be able to occur pretty
well in the dry slot, and gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range are
looking possible. Channeling and downsloping in the Champlain Valley
may cause locally higher winds, with soundings indicating 50 KTs is
possible at the top of the mixed layer.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 138 AM EST Friday...An active weather pattern will continue
through next week, with several chances for precipitation along with
colder temperatures. Monday will be fairly quiet to start the week
with just a few lingering upslope showers expected earlier in the
day before a brief period of high pressure builds in, allowing for
drier and cold conditions, with high temperatures in the 20s and
30s. Overnight lows Monday will likely drop into the teens and
single digits under ideal radiational cooling.
The next system will impact the region late Tuesday into Wednesday,
likely bringing some widespread snowfall to the region. There still
remains plenty of uncertainty with this system, as any shifts in the
low track and the overall can greatly change the impacts expected.
There continues to growing consensus amongst global deterministic of
this system bringing widespread snow across our forecast area, with
potential for some mixed precipitation likely staying to our south.
The latest NBM shows a 25% to 50% chance of 24-hour snowfall amounts
exceeding 4 inches, with the highest probabilities across south-
central Vermont. As previously stated, trends with this system will
need to be monitored as we get closer, so stay tuned. After this
system exits the region, additional chances for precipitation are
expected towards Thursday as a cold front crosses the region.
Temperatures throughout the week will be on the cold side, with
highs in the 20s and 30s and overnight lows generally in the teens
to low 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Crntly a wide range in flight categories
from VFR at PBG/BTV to MVFR at MPV/EFK/MSS and IFR/LIFR at
RUT/SLK in convective type snow showers. The forecast for the
next 6 hours will be to tempo IFR vis 1-2SM at SLK/MPV/EFK with
MVFR cigs and utilize PROB30 groups for our valley sites of
RUT/BTV/PBG and MSS, where probability of IFR conditions is less
likely to occur. Greatest potential for consistent intervals of
IFR vis in snow shower activity will be at SLK/MPV and EFK thru
this evening, before activity slowly dissipates toward
midnight. Gusty west to northwest winds will continue at 15 to
30 knots, with areas of turbulence and wind shear likely
prevailing through the evening hours. Conditions slowly improve
to a combination of VFR valleys to a mix of MVFR/VFR mtn taf
sites by Saturday morning.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SN, Definite SHRA, Definite SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly winds have gradually transitioned to westerly, and
they will trend to northwesterly this afternoon. Wind speeds
will remain elevated for the next 18 hours or so. Sustained
winds will generally be in the 15 to 30 KT range and peak gusts
will be to around 35 KTs. Waves will likely remain about 2 to 4
feet, before decreasing quickly tomorrow.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at Colchester Reef will likely leave it
inoperable for an extended period of time. This site is not
serviced by the NWS. Its technicians currently do not have an
estimated return to service time. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain, and please
contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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