402
FXUS61 KBTV 120526
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1226 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 206 PM EST Wednesday...
Snow showers have returned to the northern mountains of Vermont and
northern New York.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 206 PM EST Wednesday...
1. Light snow showers have redeveloped and will
continue into the evening, especially across the mountains.
2. Dry and seasonable conditions to end the work week.
3. Warmer temperatures and chances for precipitation are
expected this weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 206 PM EST Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Closed 850-500mb low across central Quebec
continues to deepen over the next 24 hours, with an increase in
moist cyclonic flow into northern NY and VT into this evening.
This should result in some reinvigoration of snow shower
activity across northern areas and especially with orographic
ascent in the the northern Adirondacks and northern Greens. Have
indicated an additional dusting to 2" inches of snow
accumulation overnight across roughly the northern half of the
CWA. Should see some locally higher totals of 2-4" across the
higher summits from Camel`s Hump northward to Jay Peak, and
possibly along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks. Looking
at generally dry snow with SLRs in the 18:1 to 20:1 range. With
the additional light snow accumulations, some renewed minor road
impacts are possible this evening. However, with snowfall rates
expected to be lower, road impacts should not be as significant
as what occurred during Tuesday evening.
KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure building eastward from the Great
Lakes will allow orographic snow shower activity to wind down
during the daytime hours on Thursday. Daytime temperatures on
Thursday will reach the mid to upper 20s in valley locations
with skies trending partly to mostly sunny by afternoon. After a
chilly start Friday morning with lows generally in the single
digits, temperatures will rebound into the 25-30F range for
afternoon highs. Fair and quiet weather conditions are
anticipated with a surface ridge cresting over our region.
KEY MESSAGE 3: By late this weekend into the beginning of next
week, temperatures will continue to warm, with above freezing
temperatures expected across the region after a prolonged
stretch of cold across the region. Daytime high temperatures for
Monday and Tuesday look to reach into the mid to upper 30s,
with some locations nearing 40 by mid-week. Normal highs this
time of year are right around freezing, so this swing in
temperatures will take us above seasonable normals for the first
time this month. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding
precipitation chances for this time period, although global
deterministic guidance continues to trend towards a drier
solution with low pressure passing well to our south. Some
additional chances for precipitation will be possible early next
week, with some rain possibly mixing into lower elevations
given warmer temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Snow showers continue to bring reduced
visibilities and ceilings to many terminals this morning. A band
of heavier snow has brought IFR conditions to KMPV, KRUT, and
KSLK with these IFR conditions likely to continue until 9-10Z as
snow will quickly move out of the area during the pre-dawn
hours. Ceilings, for the most part, remain in the MVFR range
with ceilings hovering between 1500 and 2500 ft. We should see
gradual improvements to ceilings throughout the day starting at
12Z but some sites may stick with a 2500-2800 deck for much of
the forecast period. It still looks like we will have a period
of gusty winds later this morning into this afternoon but it`ll
have to wait until the snow moves out of the area.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Washingtons Birthday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible.
Slight chance SN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 206 AM EST Wednesday...
In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32
degrees was January 22nd. The next time we are forecasting
temperatures rising above 32 in Burlington is next Monday,
February 16th. If that forecast holds, that would be 24 days in
a row below freezing. Sub-freezing temperature streaks this long
are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening
January-February 2015.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Neiles
AVIATION...Clay
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
|
