283
FXUS61 KBTV 142348
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
748 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 233 PM EDT Thursday...
Added patchy fog after midnight tonight across parts of the area.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 233 PM EDT Thursday...
1. A widespread rainfall expected tonight into Friday, but
probability of any flooding is very low at this time.
2. Drier and warmer weather expected this weekend with no
significant or hazardous conditions anticipated.
3. Notable warm-up for the beginning of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 233 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor imagery is showing a
deep/closed 700-500mb cyclonic circulation near KBGM with deep 700
to 300mb southerly flow acrs the eastern Dacks into VT. This
southerly flow, combined with mid/upper lvl trof becoming negatively
tilted wl help to advect Atlantic moisture back into our cwa
overnight. Regional composite reflectivity mosaic shows north-south
orientated rain band acrs central/eastern VT, which should
eventually advect westward as mid/upper lvl trof becomes negatively
tilted by this evening. The highest rainfall total wl be along the
favorable east-southeast upslope areas of the Greens and eastern
Dacks, where localized amounts over 1.0" are possible. Some
downslope shadowing is likely acrs the NEK and western slopes of the
Greens, due to east/southeast 925mb to 850mb flow. Given the lack of
instability and pw values <1.0" associated with cold core system,
rainfall rate wl be in the 0.15" to 0.30" per hour in the strongest
rain band over central VT this evening. This combined with recent
dry spell, wl result in no hydro related issues. Light and variable
winds and near saturated boundary layer conditions wl lead to some
patchy fog development areawide tonight, especially acrs the higher
trrn. Lows generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
On Friday we continue under cyclonic east/northeast flow thru the
morning hours, before ridging slowly builds into our cwa in the
aftn. I have the highest pops acrs central/eastern VT during the
morning hours with chc pops in the aftn, especially central/northern
mtns. Sounding data indicates some weak instability and lingering
moisture in the 925mb to 700mb layer wl be enough to develop some
aftn showers. Areal coverage wl be in the 20 to 35% range with
highest probabilities over the trrn. Highs with some breaks in the
overcast wl be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Weak mid/upper lvl ridge builds into the ne conus for
Saturday, before embedded s/w energy approaches the SLV by 00z
Sunday. This energy shears apart in the fast westerly flow aloft and
soundings show a dry layer from sfc to 700mb, a few light rain
showers are possible late Sat aftn into Sat night. Progged 925mb
temps warm 15-17C by 21Z Sat, supporting highs well into the 70s to
locally near 80F possible in warmer valleys. Additional s/w energy
drops south acrs our northern cwa, including the NEK on Sunday
morning. This energy wl have minimal moisture and instability, but
given northwest flow under modest caa a few mountain showers are
possible on Sunday. Definitely not a washout and areal coverage of
measurable precip wl be <15%. Weak caa lowers progged 925mb temps
btwn 13-15C, wl support highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s acrs
the lower CT River Valley on Sunday.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Ridging builds into the region from the southwest for
the beginning of next week, and surface high pressure becomes
centered near Bermuda. This will easily cause the warmest
temperatures of the year so far. By Tuesday, temperatures should be
in the 80s for most places, with a run at 90 possible for the
valleys. NBM probabilities range between 50-75 percent for the lower
Connecticut River Valley and between 25-50 percent for the Champlain
Valley away from the lake. Surface low pressure is expected to track
well to the northwest, so any wobbles in storm track should still
keep the region in the warm sector, though the exact extent of the
heat remains uncertain. Some showers and thunderstorms could come
through earlier in the afternoon and keep the temperatures slightly
lower. Dew points will increase into the mid-50s to around 60 by
late Tuesday. While the heat indices will not be overly high for the
summer, it will be much more noticeable since it will be the first
heat event of the year. A strong cold front will come through mid-
week with more potential showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...IFR/LIFR ceilings expected to prevail at
most terminals for the first 12 hours of the TAF with
widespread showers continuing. The exception will be KMSS, which
is currently VFR but should lower to MVFR by 04z, and
potentially IFR thereafter. There some indications that KMPV and
KEFK may see ceilings lift to MVFR after 06z, but probability of
this is low. Visibility generally 3-5SM in rain. Showers begin
to subside after 08z, but patchy fog will develop and continue
until 12z. There`s still uncertainty as to the extent of the
fog, but anticipate visibility to mainly be 2-4SM. Conditions
start to improve after 12z, with fog dissipating and ceilings to
MVFR, and eventually scattering out; a return to VFR conditions
by the end of the TAF period is most likely at
KBTV/KPBG/KMSS/KRUT. Isolated to scattered showers are possible
in the afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain. Winds light
and variable through the entire period.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Taber/Myskowski
AVIATION...Hastings
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