200
FXUS61 KBTV 012333
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
633 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 132 PM EST Sunday...
A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the northern
Adirondacks tonight from 1 AM to 8 AM Monday. Much of the area
will be below zero tonight. The southward trends in
precipitation have stabilized, and there`s been little change to
snowfall amounts in southern Vermont.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 132 PM EST Sunday...
1. Very cold temperatures expected tonight, with cool drainage
basins of the Adirondacks likely to approach -20 F, which
elevates the risk of hypothermia. A Cold Weather Advisory is in
effect for the northern Adirondacks from 1 AM to 8 AM Monday.
2. Light snow of 1 to 3 inches likely across the southern half
of Vermont for Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning.
3. An active weather pattern is expected to continue, with
several chances for precipitation and warmer temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 132 PM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Right now, it`s a brilliantly sunny afternoon.
Northerly flow is pushing cool, dry air into the region. A tiny
strip of reflectivity suggests some shallow moisture may still
allow some light snow showers near Jay Peak through evening, but
everyone else will be dry. Surface dewpoints are in the single
digits and falling below zero. So once a strong 1038mb high
shifts overhead later tonight, the light coating of snow this
morning will likely help produce very efficient radiational
cooling. MOS based products take sheltered hollows of the
northern Adirondacks well into the teens below zero, and recent
HRRR highlights microclimates sinking below - 20 F. HREF and
REFS indicate about a 50-70% chance of -20 F, whether by wind
chill or air temperature overnight. It`s right at the cusp, but
given the recent warmth and since this likely will be the final
real dip of the season, a Cold Weather Advisory has been
published for the northern Adirondacks. Even outside the
Adirondacks, almost the entire region is likely to experience
below zero readings today. The extended forecast guidance looks
warm. So this is probably the final below zero readings for the
season. Bundle up to avoid hypothermia for Monday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A subtle shortwave and very weak surface low
will track along a thermal gradient. How much moisture can lift
north of the boundary against a 1028-1030mb surface high around
James Bay remains in question. The southern range of model
scenarios for Tuesday evening still suggest the potential the
international border receives little to no snow, while northern
range tracks at least push snow all the way to the international
border for a couple hours. Up north, the initially dry, clear
conditions will promote warming into the upper 30s.
Precipitation at the onset may contain some mix of rain in the
warmer valleys. Farther south, a warm nose will possibly
infiltrate, with forecast soundings at KRUT indicating a shallow
1-1.5 C warm nose moving in after sunset Tuesday, which might
suggest some sleet or freezing rain could mix in. At this stage,
did add some sleet wording, since the majority of guidance
envelope is south, and that everyone else should remain snowy.
That said, the combination of weak forcing and fast forward
motion means about 1-3" across southern Vermont and less than 1"
in northern New York and northern Vermont. Flow will remain
zonal and become more southwesterly underneath clearing skies.
So any snow around is likely to quickly melt on Wednesday
beneath the incoming 40s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue for the later half of the week into the weekend,
although at this time range there continues to be a lot of
uncertainty regarding precipitation type and timing, with global
deterministic guidance showing a wide range of solutions. The
predominant precipitation type during this time period will be
rain across the entire forecast area, however some freezing rain
will be possible. The most likely period of any freezing rain
and mixed precipitation will be on Friday for locations east of
the Green Mountains where cold air at the surface is more likely
to remain.
In addition to the chances of precipitation chances,
temperatures look to trend warmer throughout the week, with high
temperatures well above normal by Friday. Current temperature
forecast shows high temperatures climbing well into the 40s on
Friday, with many locations hitting the 50s on Saturday, much
warmer than the climatological high temperatures of low to upper
30s. With these warmer temperatures and some possible rainfall,
the potential for any breakup ice jams exists, especially with
the extensive ice coverage this winter, so trends will need to
be monitored as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions currently prevail across
all terminals, and are expected to continue throughout the
forecast period. Skies remain mostly clear across the region,
with just a few scattered clouds generally above 3500 ft AGL,
with these sky conditions expected over the next 24 hours.
Northerly winds will generally continue to be a bit breezy over
the next few hours, with gusts of 15 to 25 knots possible. Gusts
should taper off towards 03Z, with winds trending calm
overnight.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SN.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA, Slight chance FZRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA,
Likely FZRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
FZRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for
NYZ029>031.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Haynes
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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