477
FXUS61 KBTV 260559 CCA
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
737 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and cloudy weather will persist through the weekend,
additional showers will be mostly light and confined to the
mountains. High elevation snow showers are expected, with only
light accumulations on the mountain summits. Conditions trend
drier and a little sunnier heading into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Saturday...Our weather from tonight through
Sunday night will be relatively quiet, and dominated by an upper
level trough and surface ridge of high pressure. We will be
under northwesterly upper level flow as trough remains in the
area, and several pieces of vorticity rotating around the trough
will bring some increased chances for showers, but mainly in
the higher elevations. Meanwhile, a ridge of surface high
pressure will build into our area from the north, leading to
light winds and overall quieter weather. Upper trough will keep
clouds over our area, but moist low levels from recent rainfall
and light winds from surface high should lead to some fog
formation during the overnight periods. Overnight minimum
temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s both tonight and Sunday
night. Maximum temperatures on Sunday will be cool, generally
ranging through the 40s by Sunday afternoon. This is almost ten
degrees below seasonal normals for late October across the north
country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Saturday...On Monday and Monday night,
conditions will continue to feature quiet weather. Virtually no
change in the upper level or surface pattern as we remain under
influence of upper trough and surface ridge at the same time.
Cool and cloudy conditions, with some light showers possible in
the high elevations continue. Maximum temperatures will range
from the mid 40s to lower 50s, slightly warmer on Monday than
Sunday. Fog will be possible once again Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...A ridge of high pressure will
develop over the Hudson Bay on Tuesday, bringing partly clear
skies and low PoPs. Model agreement has improved since the last
forecast, increasing confidence that we will remain mostly dry
through Wednesday. PoPS on Wednesday night start to slowly tick
up in advance of a low pressure moving in from the Great Lakes.
This timeline would allow for some light snowfall accumulations
above 2,500 feet. Snow levels increase as the systems true
impacts begin to be felt on Thursday. The low will advect in
higher pwats from the coastal areas allowing a potentially soggy
Halloween. Model timing on this event is still widely spaced,
with the Euro having the heavier precipitation reaching us
almost 12 hours before the GFS solution.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR conditions will continue to prevail
across all terminals this evening, with ceilings generally
between 4000 and 6000 ft AGL and generally light winds. Some fog
and mist development may be possible overnight, however
confidence is too low to include in the forecast at this time.
There is a lot of uncertainty regarding cloud cover, and if any
clearing will be able to occur, which will impact any fog
development and possible IFR conditions. Ceilings look to lower
towards 12Z, with several terminals experiencing a period of
MVFR ceilings before returning to VFR after 21Z or so. Winds
will generally be light and northerly throughout the forecast
period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.


&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...BTV