084
FXUS61 KBTV 121902
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
302 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low over the Mid-Atlantic will bring increasing clouds
to the region today, with precipitation chances arriving later
tonight. Breezy easterly winds are expected across southern
Vermont today, with some localized downslope wind gusts up to 35
mph possible tonight into Monday over eastern Rutland County.
Cool and mostly dry conditions will continue beyond Tuesday
under cyclonic flow through the remainder of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 231 PM EDT Sunday...Cloud cover associated with a coastal low
is beginning to increase northward with increasing winds and
moisture, particularly in southern Vermont. A coastal low is
continuing to develop across the Mid-Atlantic and will ride the East
Coast before stalling its northward movement around Delaware.
Strengthening 850mb flow with associated frontogenesis in southern
New England will help develop a strong low-level jet with 50-60 mph
winds at the 925-850 mb level. Easterly winds are already gusting
across the higher terrain and eastern Vermont up to 20 mph. Winds
are expected to continue to increase to 25 mph in southern Vermont
by tonight, with localized 35 mph gusts in the nearby western
slopes of the southern Greens, particularly near Rutland,
Vermont. Upper slopes and ridges will be above any stabilizing
inversion later tonight, and should continue to see breezy to
gusty winds with summits potentially reaching as high as 40 mph.
In addition to the breezy winds, mixing out ahead of the cloud
shield have resulted in low relative humidity values to 30-40%.
Moisture advection off the Atlantic this evening should increase
with the onset of the cloud cover helping to raise dewpoints,
and mitigate any fire weather concerns for the remainder of the
day today.
Precipitation will move into the region this evening, with the bulk
of the rainfall overspreading the area tomorrow morning. The
heaviest of the precipitation looks to stay south of the I-89
corridor with more scattered to isolated showers to the north.
Initial rainfall this evening will likely fall as virga to start
with such a dry air mass in place, though with further saturation,
efficient moistening of the air column should allow steady
precipitation rates, at least in southern Vermont. Recent trends
have seen a back and forth on precipitation amounts, though with the
addition of some more hi-res data, amounts have stabilized. Dry air
and stretching of the flow aloft, should limit the overall rain
amounts in northern Vermont with just a few hundreths to a tenth
expected. Mainly an overcast day with a few light showers can be
expected with a sharp precipitation gradient in the forecast.
Further south, precipitation totals could be up to an inch in far
southern Vermont and generally 0.5-0.8 inches in central and
southern Vermont. With the easterly flow, and froude numbers around
0.5, it is likely that locations near the eastern slopes of the
southern Greens (such as Killington and Ludlow) will see slightly
higher precipitation amounts from blocked flow. Conversely,
locations just west of the southern Greens (such as Rutland) could
see some shadowing effects with lesser amounts possible through
Monday afternoon. The system gradually will shift eastward late
Monday night with any residual showers becoming confined to
eastern Vermont near the Connecticut River Valley.
Temperatures tonight will hold steady in the 40s for the entire
region with the persistent cloud cover and rainfall. Temperatures
tomorrow will not be able to climb much with cloud cover and
rainfall remaining for much of the day in southern Vermont. Across
portions of northern New York and northern Vermont, temperatures may
be able to reach 60 with less precipitation and some clearing
potential. Repeat lows Monday night will be in the 40s with
persistence forecasting based on clouds and rain sticking
around.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 231 PM EDT Sunday...The trough responsible for the coastal low
will begin to slide eastward with drying conditions expected behind
the system. A few lingering showers cannot be ruled out early
Tuesday morning, especially in eastern Vermont. Clouds should remain
for most of the day in Vermont, but some clearing late is possible
in northern New York as a subtle ridge tries to nose into the St.
Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will generally be seasonable with
values climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will be calm
for the most part for most of Tuesday, however, a tightening
pressure gradient late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning
which will look to draw in some gusty northerly winds in the
Champlain Valley, especially on Lake Champlain. Gusts 20 to 25 mph
are possible with good channeling effects on the Lake, indicating
the potential for a Lake Wind Advisory by Wednesday morning. Models
are hinting at a weak shortwave passage late Tuesday night
associated with the increasing winds which could draw some upslope
showers, however, PoPs are only (25-35%) and confined to the
northern Greens. This shortwave will likely pan out as a dry cold
front with the main threats being the associated winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Sunday...Main focus for the extended forecast
continues to be for a period of stronger wind gusts associated
with a tight pressure gradient with the region favored to be
sandwiched between two large pressure systems, a large high over
the eastern Plains and a deep low offshore in the west Atlantic
south of Main. Widespread gusts 20 to 30 mph are appearing
probable given strong consensus on location and strength of
synoptic features and potential for a drier variety frontal
passage; can`t rule out a few 40 mph gusts. Moisture is quite
anemic in model simulations along the frontal boundary with a
very dry, cool airmass pushing the front. This will have
implications for Lake Champlain conditions and possibly for fire
weather concerns Wednesday and Thursday. RH is favored to be
higher Wednesday with a drier conditions for Thursday. Dry
conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the week
into the weekend as high pressure tracks eastward. Models
continue to indicate potential for a weekend low pressure
system, but also have the tendency to move large high pressure
systems too quickly. For now, kept some shower chances around
Saturday into Sunday, but could see these sliding later by as
much as 24hrs. Finally, Temperatures will be much cooler for mid
week with highs expected in the 40s to low 50s Wednesday and
Thursday before flow shifts more southerly on the back side of
the high allowing for warm air advection pushing temperatures
back into the 50s to around 60 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Breezy conditions will continue this
afternoon responding to a tight pressure gradient ahead of a
coastal low moving northward. While most terminals will see
gusts lower than 20kts out of the east, RUT will see some gusts
above 20kts at times. A few observations at RUT have peak winds
nearing 30kts earlier this afternoon, but there will likely be
a slight lull for the late afternoon hours before the core of
the low level jet moves over the greens. Best timing for the jet
will be around 06-12Z; added LLWS at RUT since SFC winds could
be dampened by rainfall. Precipitation spreads northward 05-18Z
as the low pressure continues to track northward. Best chances
of lower CIGS/VIS will be at MPV/EFK where east flow upslopes.
Downslope component and strength of flow may keep RUT clear,
but if they start to go or precipitate heavily, then CIGS/VIS
could go intermittently IFR.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
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