803
FXUS61 KBTV 052339
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
639 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow will continue to develop this afternoon, and it will
persist through this evening. Total snow accumulations of one to
three inches are expected along with areas of slick travel during
the evening commute. Our next stronger system arrives late Tuesday
into Wednesday bringing widespread snow and mixed precipitation. A
warming trend will occur through the week, with temperatures rising
above normal by late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 112 PM EST Monday...An area of light snow is gradually making
its way into the region. It is reaching the ground across most of
northern New York while much of it is falling as virga over Vermont.
Within the next few hours, the snow will reach the ground everywhere
and a light snow will continue through this evening. Rates will be
relatively light, generally under an inch per hour. The snow will
exit the region late this evening. Overall, between one and three
inches of snow is expected in most places. Behind this clipper
system, the airmass will be much warmer. Temperatures on Tuesday
will rise into the lower 30s for most places. There should be a few
breaks of sun in the morning, before high clouds quickly arrive out
ahead of the next storm system.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 112 PM EST Monday...A low pressure system tracks up St.
Lawrence Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday and brings a round of
widespread precipitation. Trends have been to a colder solution,
with a secondary low developing over southern New England quicker
and helping keep the cold air around. While the antecedent airmass
will be much warmer than it has been, it will be just cold enough
for the precipitation to start as snow in most places. The exception
looks to be in part of the western Adirondacks where warm air
advection should be able to raise temperatures aloft above freezing.
Therefore, sleet/freezing rain looks to develop there on the onset.
With dynamical cooling and weakening warm air advection due to the
secondary low developing, the precipitation there looks to change to
snow within a few hours. Precipitation may also start as sleet and
or freezing rain for southern Vermont, but it looks to transition to
snow there as well for a period of time. Overall, another one to
three inches of snow is expected for most areas. Ice accumulations
should generally stay around and below 0.05 inches. The overall
amount of precipitation is limited with this system, with only a
couple tenths of an inch of liquid equivalent at most, so regardless
of the precipitation types, the impacts will be on the minor side.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 112 PM EST Monday...Steady warming is expected on Thursday, but
upper level ridging will take some more time to shift east. So a
partly cloudy day is expected with steady south winds. Deep layer
ridging moves off shore, and strong warm advection will get
underway. Temperatures may briefly cool after sunset, but a non-
diurnal curve appears and conditions should be above freezing about
sunrise Friday morning. A plume of deep moisture with PWATs between
0.75-1.00" will move north during the day. The surface low is not
overly deep, though, and 850mb flow will increase to 50-55 knots. So
there will likely be a lot of terrain influence, and the moisture
plume will quickly shift east.
The question in the long range will be the degree of separation
between this system and the one behind it. If there`s a larger
degree of separation, then temperatures may be able to cool off
enough that we don`t experience a long window of consecutive hours
above freezing. If there`s little, then we remain locked into
southwest flow and fail to fall below freezing on Saturday. Either
way, there could be impacts, as precipitation quickly overspreads
with a stronger system and southerly flow that could bring a mix,
and the other scenario would result in a broader thaw and additional
rain.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Widespread snow will continue across the
forecast area through 02z, then gradually wind down from N to S
through 06z. Visibility 1-3SM in snow, with ceilings generally
1200-2800 ft, though cannot rule out occasionally lower
conditions, especially at KSLK/KMPV. Snow ends at all terminals
by 06z, but MVFR ceilings will likely persist through 12-14z
before improvement thereafter. VFR should prevail at most sites
from 16z onward. However, wintry mixed precipitation will begin
to spread into the region from the west very late in this TAF
period. Most terminals will remain dry through 00z Wed, but have
included -SN at KMSS after 22z to show trends. Winds light and
variable through the period.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SN,
Slight chance FZRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Likely RA, Slight chance
FZRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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