000
FXUS61 KBTV 241728
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
128 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry weather is expected through tonight as high
pressure briefly crosses the region. Then as a strong low
pressure system passes to our northwest, an elevationally
dependent mixed precipitation and snowfall event will unfold
over the region Saturday and Saturday night. Some light snow
and ice accumulations are possible. After lingering showers on
Sunday, we turn towards drier weather early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 119 PM EDT Friday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. Clouds are finally starting to erode as
expected, especially in the St Lawrence Valley and portions of
south central VT. This overall pattern will continue, though
it`ll be fairly gradual, especially over the higher terrain.
Temperatures are mainly in the 30s, though seeing a few spot 40s
in far southern Rutland and Windsor Counties. Shouldn`t see much
more than another couple of degrees of warming. Forecast has
this all covered, so other than incorporating the latest
observations, no adjustments were made.

Previous discussion...Surface and upper level ridging will move
into our region today, and a gradual clearing trend is
expected. Quiet weather with cooler than normal temperatures is
forecast for today into tonight. The ridge crests directly
overhead tonight, resulting in light winds and at least some
clearing, though high clouds will begin to increase in western
areas toward daybreak Saturday ahead of our next system. High
temperatures today will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Temperatures will dip into the teens and 20s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Friday...Low pressure system will track from
just south of the Great Lakes early Saturday morning,
northeastward into eastern Ontario by Saturday evening, and
cross north of our region Saturday night. A weaker secondary low
will form somewhere along the New England coastline on Saturday
night into Sunday as well. Precipitation will spread northward
into our region by early Saturday morning. Models still show a
strong band of frontogenesis lifting across our area during
Saturday afternoon, and the heavier precipitation should help to
cool the column enough for some snow. Southeasterly flow aloft
will mean that first batch of precipitation early Saturday
morning will be highest on the east facing upslope regions of
the Greens and Dacks. Will also see some strong downslope winds
out of the southeast on west facing slopes. The flow will become
more southwesterly as the day wears on, and warm air aloft will
move into the region. Most valley locations will mainly see
rain with this storm, while the higher elevations will probably
experience all precipitation types throughout the storm. As the
secondary low forms off the New England coast during the
overnight hours, temperatures will cool aloft and the higher
elevations will see a change over to snow before the
precipitation becomes more showery and comes to an end. Storm
total liquid precipitation will be around a quarter of an inch
up to six tenths of an inch. Snow accumulations will mainly be
from 1500 feet and higher, and around one to four inches. Lower
elevations should only see an inch or less. Ice accumulations
will mainly be limited to southern Vermont and some higher
elevations, and a few hundredths of an inch or less. Further
fine tuning and forecast adjustments are expected with such a
complex scenario with borderline thermal profiles and elevation
dependency. Low pressure will continue to track further away
from our region. Precipitation will become more showery before
ending midday Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 341 AM EDT Friday...Generally seasonal, quiet weather for
next week as upper CONUS flow remains progressive. There
remains one larger-scale system to watch, most notably in the
Tuesday Night/Wednesday time frame as eastward moving Ohio
Valley energy interacts with a slight digging of the polar
trough centered across central Canada. Models continue to have
different ideas on timing and strength of this feature, but the
majority consensus keeps the two upper streams unphased with
deeper moisture and energy remaining largely south of our area
leaving just some scattered rain/snow shower activity.
Temperatures should hold within a few degrees of seasonal norms
through next week as daily highs top out in the upper 30s to mid
40s and overnight lows bottom out mainly in the 20s to locally
around 30.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions across the region
this afternoon, with local MVFR ceilings possible at
KSLK/KMPV/KEFK. Low cloud deck will continue to slowly erode
through 02z Saturday, with ceilings lingering longest in the
higher terrain. VFR to prevail thereafter, with high clouds
increasing through the remainder of the period. Precipitation
will spread into western areas late in the period, with 2-3SM
visibility possible in snow at KMSS/KSLK after 16z. North/northwest
winds 5-10 kt trend toward calm after 00z, then starting to
increase out of the southeast after 12z, with gusts approaching
20 kt by late in the period.


Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
RA, Definite SN, Definite PL, Definite FZRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday:  NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night:  Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday:  Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Hastings/JMG