046
FXUS61 KBTV 071044
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
644 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Fire weather concerns will continue today, especially in Vermont
where relative humidity values will be the lowest. A slow moving
cold front will cross the region this afternoon into tonight,
bringing a round of widespread showers and an end to the record
heat. Much cooler conditions are expected through the remainder of
the week thereafter, with frosts and freezes likely in many places
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 154 AM EDT Tuesday...We`ll finally see another shot of
widespread wetting rain today and tonight as a cold front will push
across the region. The front currently stretches across central
Quebec and eastern Ontario, into Michigan and the Midwest early this
morning. An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms associated
with this front can be seen on upstream radars, and this will
gradually make its way toward the St Lawrence Valley through the
morning hours. Given the dry air that`s in place, it should take
precipitation a little bit to reach the ground until the column
saturates, so expect it will likely be mid to perhaps late morning
before even the St Lawrence Valley sees much in the way of rain.
Ahead of the front, near critical fire weather conditions continue
to be a concern, especially in Vermont. South/southwest winds of 10
to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected due to daytime
mixing of an LLJ preceding the front. While this will help to
gradually increase moisture during the day, our fire weather
partners have indicated that fine fuels remain very dry. Therefore,
any fires that start could quickly become difficult to contain.
Accordingly, another Special Weather Statement for increased fire
weather concerns will be in effect today.
Thankfully, showers will spread from northern NY into VT by mid/late
afternoon. Precipitation will continue through the evening into the
overnight hours before quickly coming to an end from west to east
Wednesday morning. PWATs will surge to 1.50 inch or better, so still
anticipate there could be brief periods of heavy rainfall,
especially this afternoon and evening. CAPEs still look minimal, but
can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder. Overall rain totals look to
range from 0.50 to 1.25 inch, though locally higher amounts will be
possible in any spots that see multiple heavier showers.
Temperature-wise, highs today will be somewhat variable, though
cooler than the past couple of days in most spots. Areas west of the
Champlain Valley will top out only in the lower to mid 70s since
showers and the front will reach them earlier in the day. The
remainder of the area will see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the front arrives. Temperatures will drop sharply once the
boundary does move through; lows tonight will be in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 154 AM EDT Tuesday...This period will definitely have a fall-
like feel as cool, dry high pressure settles over the region.
Wednesday will be the warmer of the two days; highs will be near
normal and topping out in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Breezy north to
northwest winds will make it feel chillier though, and wouldn`t be
surprised if we see more clouds than sun during the afternoon,
especially over the mountains. Some showers will linger over
eastern/southern VT early in the morning, but these should quickly
exit to the southeast as drier air rushes in behind the front.
Thursday should feature more sun and lighter winds since the ridge
will be directly overhead, but highs will be a good 10 degrees
colder than on Wednesday. In between, Wednesday night`s lows will be
cold, in the mid/upper 20s to mid/upper 30s, but continuing cold air
advection on north/northwest winds should limit frost formation away
from the sheltered valleys. One thing of note for Wednesday
night...some CAM guidance is indicating some lingering shower
activity along the western slopes of the Greens owing to upslope
northwest flow. Moisture will be pretty shallow, so don`t anticipate
any true rain or snow showers. But wouldn`t be surprised if some of
the higher peaks see some riming overnight into early Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 154 AM EDT Tuesday...Sharply colder conditions will continue
across the region Thursday night as high pressure remains centered
overhead, allowing for ideal radiational cooling conditions
overnight. Temperatures will drop into the 20s and 30s, with the
exception of some locations near Lake Champlain. Some of the coldest
hallows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom, such as Saranac
Lake, may even dip into the teens. With such cold conditions
expected overnight, headlines related to the frost/freeze will be
needed outside of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom where the
program is still active. Daytime highs on Friday be quite seasonable
for this time of year, with temperatures climbing into the upper 50s
and low 60s after a chilly start to the day, with ample sunshine and
pleasant conditions. Towards the weekend, the dry pattern looks to
persist as high pressure continues to remain the dominant weather
feature. Temperatures will gradually moderate back towards
climatological normals for the weekend, with daytime highs in the
60s and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will continue to prevail
at all terminals over the next several hours. A cold front will
approach the region later today, bringing some widespread
showers. Southwesterly winds will become increasingly gusty this
morning ahead of this boundary, with gusts between 15 and 25
knots possible. VFR conditions are expected to continue at the
onset of precipitation, but ceilings will begin to lower to MVFR
this evening, around 21Z or so depending on the terminal. Some
IFR ceilings may also be possible tonight, particularly at KSLK
and KMPV. Showers will gradually begin to taper off at the end
of the forecast period. Winds will become lighter and northwesterly
overnight as the front pushes eastward. generally Some brief
periods of LLWS will be possible overnight, especially across
portions of Vermont.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Areas frost.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for today. South winds of 15
to 25 kt are expected on Lake Champlain, ahead of an approaching
cold front. The strongest winds will be over the broad lake.
Winds may briefly subside this evening, but expect them to
increase again overnight into Wednesday as they switch to the
north after the front moves through. Therefore, the Advisory
may need to be extended through tonight and into tomorrow. Waves
will be 1 to 3 feet, though 2 to 4 feet on the broad lake.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
MARINE...WFO BTV
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