884
FXUS61 KBTV 171802
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
202 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure today gives way to mostly dry cold front dropping
out of Canada late Thursday and Thursday night. While a few
showers are possible, measurable rainfall is not guaranteed
with most locations expected to see nothing. Temperatures will
be quite cooler Friday mainly in the 60s, running about 15
degrees lower than Thursday`s highs. A more widespread frost is
probable for locations outside of the immediate Champlain Valley
this weekend with some freezes for higher elevations.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 119 PM EDT Wednesday...Pervasive dryness continues as a
weak wave over the mid Atlantic streams high clouds across the
Northeast. These clouds have tamped down high temperatures
marginally keeping highs pleasantly in the 70s. Winds begin to
increase out of the south turning westerly Thursday as a cold
front approaches the region. This front will squeeze a few
showers out as it drops southward out of Canada, but amounts
will be very anemic given the boundary will begin decaying
rapidly as it moves into a very dry airmass. Mainly upslope
locations along the northern Greens and Adirondacks will only
see up to a few hundredths, but most locations will receive
little to nothing. Winds on Lake Champlain and over higher
terrain will rise Thursday night as cold air advection picks up.
Based off of conceptual models, it`s feasible that gusts
20-30mph occur over and adjacent to Lake Champlain, but model
profiles have been capping gusts 15-20 mph for most spots. As we
move more into the window for higher resolution guidance, we`ll
be able to fine tune the winds further.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 119 PM EDT Wednesday... Breezy northern flow continues
Friday with gusts generally 15-25mph in the morning. Coupled
with RH in the 30-40% range, some very marginal fire weather
concerns will be present; please, see the Fire Weather
Discussion below. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler Friday
with highs generally in the 60s compared to mid/upper 70s on
Thursday. Winds will drop through the day likely decoupling and
going calm for most locations overnight. With moderate cold air
advection and high pressure building overhead, temperatures will
be dropping sharply. Widespread lows in the 30s to around 40
degrees are probable with typically colder areas dipping into
the upper 20s to around 30 degrees, and coldest hollows dropping
to the mid 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 119 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will remain the dominant
weather feature through the weekend. Very dry airmass will be in
place Saturday, leading to relative humidity values as low as 20 to
25 percent. Winds will be light though. This combined with the light
winds will provide another optimal set up for radiational cooling
Saturday night, and expect there will patchy frost away from Lake
Champlain, with freezing temperatures possible in the cold hollows
of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Ridging shifts eastward
for early next week, and expect south flow and warming temperatures
to develop as it does so. After Saturday`s daytime highs in the 60s,
expect Sunday to be around 10 degrees warmer. An upper shortwave
tries to ride along the top of the ridge as we head into the work
week, but bulk of the forcing will remain to our northwest and any
precipitation chances likewise mainly across far northwestern NY.
Better chances for showers arrive Tuesday/Tuesday night as a
stronger system pushes into the Great Lakes. Have stayed with NBM`s
15-40 percent PoPs for now as there`s still model differences in
timing and strength of incoming system. Even should we get showers
though, they`ll be riding into a dry airmass, and note that
probabilities of 24-hr rainfall totals greater than a quarter inch
only top out 25 to 30 percent. Therefore, don`t see any drought
relief through at least mid week next week.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z Thursday...Other than local IFR/LIFR at KMPV in another
round of early morning fog, VFR will prevail through the TAF period.
Mid/high clouds will remain SCT-BKN through about 06z Thu before
skies again trend clear. Given tonight`s cloud cover and an expected
20 kt LLJ, fog at KMPV shouldn`t be as prevalent as the past couple
of mornings and have continued to use a TEMPO group for 09z-13z.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Considering our period of very prolonged dryness, there will be
some very marginal fire weather concerns Friday and Saturday.
First, breezy northerly winds behind Thursday night`s mostly dry
cold front Friday will be gusting 15-20mph in general with
around 25mph near Lake Champlain and along exposed mid/upper
slopes. Minimum RH will generally range 30-40% with temperatures
running cooler than seasonal average. Then, very dry conditions
(min RH widespread 20-35%) develop for Saturday while high
pressure builds overhead; winds will drop substantially becoming
light. Fortunately, winds and driest conditions do not phase
while the vast majority of leaves remain on trees. This will
keep concerns tamped down since carrying fuels are currently
sparse. Still, given recent drought conditions, it will be
prudent to limit any chances of sparks to avoid accidental fire
starts.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
FIRE WEATHER...Team BTV
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