375
FXUS61 KBTV 010631
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
231 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will keep conditions very dry through this
weekend into early next week. Temperatures will be running
cooler than seasonal averages with expected periods of frost
tonight and THursday night before temperatures trend above
seasonal averages over the weekend. The next chances for rain
will hold off until mid next week as high pressure slides
eastward.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* Fire weather concerns exist for the Champlain Valley today due
to very dry vegetation, near critical relative humidity down
to near 30 percent, and breezy winds gusting 20 to 25mph.
* Frost will occur this morning in Essex County Vermont then
again across much of northern New York and Vermont tonight.
Frost Advisories are in effect.
* The Frost/Freeze Program for the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom of Vermont has expired as of this morning since
reaching the 75th percentile date for average end of the
growing season. No new Frost/Freeze agricultural Watches,
Warnings, or Advisories will be issued until next spring when
the growing season begins anew.
As of 204 AM EDT Wednesday...Very few changes were necessary
with strong high pressure firmly over northern New York and
Vermont. Some gradient remains, so north winds will be an
ongoing feature for the daytime hours as mixing increases. Gusts
in the Champlain Valley will be strongest ranging 15 to 25 mph -
highest over and adjacent to Lake Champlain. These winds and RH
in the 30-40 percent range will create concerns for increased
fire spread given ongoing drought and an increase in carrying
fuels as leaves fall from trees.
Strong radiational cooling will continue tonight and Thursday
night favoring some fog (freezing fog where temps dip
to/slightly below freezing) and frost formation. A few locations
will dip to and slightly below freezing in the Vermont
interior, northeastern Vermont, and the Adirondacks, but
coverage precluded issuance of freeze warnings. Elsewhere, frost
is favored outside the immediate adjacent areas of Lake
Champlain which resulted in the issuance of a widespread frost
advisory. If you are maintaining your gardens, covering it
tonight will be essential. Lows overnight tonight will be quite
cool dipping into the 20s for the Adirondacks and NEK with 30s
up to around 40 degrees adjacent to Lake Champlain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 204 AM EDT Wednesday...Temperatures will begin to slowly
warm starting Thursday night into Friday as high pressure tracks
eastward and flow turns more southerly. Lows will generally
range in the 30s to mid 40s with another round of frost for
locations outside the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys. Highs
will generally range in the upper 60s to low 70s for most
locations Friday as southerly winds range 5 to 10 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 134 AM EDT Wednesday...Strong mid to upper level ridging
will build into the forecast area out of the southeastern US as
surface high pressure sits over the mid-Atlantic this weekend,
resulting in quiet, dry, mostly sunny, and warm weather with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s through the start of the next
work week, roughly 15 degrees above seasonable averages for
early October. Lows will also be relatively mild in the 40s to
mid 50s in spite of clear overnight due to the persistent warm
air mass. Patchy valley fog is also possible this weekend but
will be fighting persistent dry conditions.
The arrival of a cold front is expected early to mid week, though
deterministic models disagree on the exact timing of such a feature.
Highest chances of measurable precipitation are for Tuesday night as
models show the most overlap in this period, but the possibility of
precip exists, though lower, Monday night onward for portions of the
forecast area. There is also the potential for this cold front to
get pushed later and later in the week as high pressure stays locked
in place over us. When the cold front does arrive, it is likely to
bring cooler temperatures again with highs falling into the 60s and
lows into the 30s/40s midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
over the next 24 hours as skies remain clear. Models continue to
hint at clouds developing over higher terrain and drifting over
EFK this morning, but overall thinking is they will not be low
enough or organized enough to change flight rules there. Fog is
still not likely this morning due to very dry air and winds
remaining elevated just aloft. Conditions are calm or light and
variable at the surface with winds starting to increase around
08Z-11Z Wednesday out of the north 5-10 knots, increasing
further in the afternoon with gusts 10-25 knots out of the
north. Winds will diminish after 21Z-23Z Wednesday but remain
out of the north for much of the evening.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Leaf litter is increasing across northern New York and Vermont
leading to more widespread availability of carrying fuels. Given
ongoing and deepening drought resulting in near record dry
1000hr fuels and very dry soils, winds gusting 20 to 25 mph and
RH as low as 30% today are leading to concerns for increased
rates of fire spread in the Champlain Valley. Check with your
local agencies to see if there is a burn ban in effect, take
care not to cause a spark, and report any smoke to your local
officials.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
VTZ002-005-006-008>011-016>021.
Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VTZ004.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
NYZ026>028-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
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