640
FXUS61 KBTV 081355
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
955 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower activity will taper off this morning as a cold front exits
the region. After a stretch of record heat, much cooler conditions
are expected for the remainder of the week, with frosts and freezes
likely in many places overnight. Quiet and seasonable weather is
expected heading into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM EDT Wednesday...Made an update to PoPs based on
upstream observations showing scattered showers across Quebec
Province. Lake-based CAPE values under cold advection will be as
high as 500 J/kg. So bumped up showers and QPF, especially
southeast of Lake Champlain. Also, we have issued a lake wind
advisory based already increasing winds, which are expected to
climb further this evening. Previous discussion below...

Widespread precipitation will gradually come to an end this
morning as a cold front continues to push across the region.
Rainfall totals so far have generally ranged between 0.5 and 1.5
inches across northern New York and much of Vermont, with some
amounts near 2.0 inches across parts of the Champlain Valley and
the Green Mountains. In the wake of this front, colder
conditions can be expected across the region under brisk
northwesterly flow, especially in comparison the the recent
record- breaking warmth the last few days. High temperatures
this afternoon will climb into the 50s and low 60s. A few
additional showers will be possible, especially across the
higher terrain, with a few possible flakes as temperatures
continue to fall below freezing. Overnight low temperatures will
drop into the 30s across much of the area tonight. Some patchy
frost will be possible, but elevated winds and some possible
lingering cloud cover may hinder how cold locations get and any
frost development tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 222 AM EDT Wednesday...The coldest day of the week is expected
Thursday as colder air continues to stream into the region. High
temperatures are only expected to climb into the 40s to mid 50s.
These sharply colder conditions will continue across the region
Thursday night as high pressure remains centered overhead, allowing
for ideal radiational cooling conditions overnight. Temperatures
will drop into the 20s and 30s, with the exception of some locations
near Lake Champlain. Some of the coldest hallows of the Adirondacks
and Northeast Kingdom, such as Saranac Lake, may even dip into the
teens. With such cold conditions expected overnight, headlines
related to the frost/freeze will be needed outside of the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom where the program is still active.
Daytime highs on Friday be quite seasonable for this time of year,
with temperatures climbing into the upper 50s and low 60s after a
chilly start to the day, with ample sunshine and pleasant
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 222 AM EDT Wednesday...While the weather is expected to remain
quiet with near normal temperatures through this period, it belies
the complex pattern that will be in place across the eastern CONUS.
An upper low over the northern Great Lakes early in the weekend will
dig southward, becoming cut off from the northern stream as it does
so. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop off the Carolina coast and
lift northward as a 1024mb high settles into southern
Ontario/Quebec. The complicated interplay between these features
will dictate whether we see rain early next week, or if we stay dry.
The GFS continues to be the most aggressive with dropping the upper
low southeastward and allowing it to capture the surface low and
draw it northward to near Long Island. This solution would result in
rain spreading over much of our forecast area Sunday night and
Monday. Meanwhile, other guidance keeps the strong high in place,
shunting low pressure further south and keeping rain over southern
New England. Do note that most of the long range ensemble members
favor the secondary solution, with the operational GFS being an
northern outlier, even amongst its members. Have stayed close to the
NBM through the extended period given the uncertainty, limiting PoPs
to slight chance and over mainly our southern areas. Either way,
temperatures look to remain seasonable through the period, with
highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12z Thursday...Mix of VFR/MVFR will continue through
14/15z as a cold front and its associated rain exit the region.
Skies will scatter out by afternoon, with VFR to prevail at all
terminals for much of the daylight hours. A secondary front will
move through from north to south from 22z-04z, and this may
produce a brief period of MVFR ceilings, especially at the
higher elevation sites. VFR prevails again after 04z. N/NW winds
5 to 10 kt gusting to around 20 kt through much of TAF period,
with the highest gusts focused 14z-02z.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Areas frost.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds over Lake Champlain are currently about 10 to 20 knots
sustained. There is an occasional gust or observed wind speed
approaching 25 knots. North winds funneling through the valley
are expected to continue, with low level flow increasing this
afternoon again. Faster winds are thus expected by this
afternoon and evening. The strongest winds will be from the
broad waters down to the southern waters of Lake Champlain at 20
to 30 knots. Waves will build from 2 to 4 feet up to 3 to 5 feet
over southern waters in the vicinity of Diamond Island.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
MARINE...