732
FXUS61 KBTV 142348
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
748 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dreary weather will persist through the rest of today as low
pressure pulls away from our region. Cool, breezy, and dry
conditions will prevail through much of the remainder of the week.
We trend warmer for the weekend, with our next chance for widespread
rain not arriving until early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...Damp and dreary conditions have been slow
to move out this afternoon. Radar still shows scattered light rain
showers, and we`re seeing patchy fog and drizzle per surface
observations and webcams. Expect this will be the trend through the
rest of today. Note there`s clearing ahead of our incoming cold
front, which is slowly approaching the St Lawrence Valley at this
hour. Guidance indicates this clearing will push across our region
during the evening hours, with clouds increasing as the front pushes
through. Not entirely convinced that we`ll see much in the way of
clearing, as patchy fog could quickly develop due to light winds and
plentiful lingering low level moisture. Either way, any fog should
clear out as the front moves through and winds increase due to cold
air advection and mixing. Moisture looks to become trapped below the
subsidence inversion though, so we`ll see cloudy conditions return
late tonight. There could be a few showers accompanying the front
over the northern mountains, but given the shallow moisture, drizzle
and/or light riming is more likely. Lows will drop into the 30s in
the higher terrain, but the wider valleys will remain in the upper
30s to mid 40s, limiting frost in those areas where the growing
season is considered to still be ongoing.
Wednesday will be chilly under cold air advection. We`ll remain
between high pressure to our west and low pressure to our east,
resulting in brisk north to northwest winds. An upper trough will
pivot across eastern Maine, keeping clouds around much of the region
through at least the first part of the day. The St Lawrence Valley
and Adirondacks may see a bit more sunshine during the afternoon,
but expect much of northern and eastern VT to remain cloudy. Highs
will only top out in the upper 40s to mid 50s, about 5 degrees
colder than normal. Wednesday night will likewise be chilly,
especially in the mountains where lows will be in the 20s to around
30F. In the Champlain Valley, lows will drop into the mid and upper
30s, but there will be enough wind to limit frost formation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...Thursday will be another chilly and breezy
day as high pressure continues to slowly build eastward from the
Great Lakes. While temperatures will once again only top out in the
upper 40s to mid 50s, drier air will have a firmer hold, bringing
relative humidity values down to 30 to 40 percent. With
north/northwest winds expected to gust 20 to 30 mph, we`ll have near
critical fire weather. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly sunny
skies, with northern/eastern VT to see the most cloud cover. Winds
will subside a bit after sunset, though they may be just enough to
once again limit frost potential. Still, it`ll be a cold night with
lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, warmest close to Lake Champlain.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...Ridging remains over the weekend and it
will keep the region mostly dry. While a scattered shower cannot be
ruled out over far northern areas, the rain will mostly stay over
Quebec. Radiational cooling conditions should be somewhat favorable
Friday night, and with a colder airmass in place, widespread frosts
and freezes are possible. As the center of the surface high pushes
off to the east over the weekend, temperatures will respond quickly
and they will make a run at seventy in places on Sunday. A deep
trough builds into the region for the beginning of next week and it
looks to bring the cooler and showery pattern back. An initial cold
front should move through sometime in the Sunday night timeframe. A
surface low may develop along it and continue the steadier rain into
Monday. Regardless, with the upper low moving into the region, there
should still be some showery conditions. There remains a large
amount of uncertainty on how this low progresses, with the potential
for it to become a cutoff low or pass out of the region quickly
moving into midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Thoroughly challenging TAF forecast this
evening as clear skies in the St. Lawrence Valley and northern
Champlain Valley work away at the cloud layer draped over the
Adirondacks, southern Vermont, and the Northeast Kingdom. MSS,
BTV, and PBG are reporting VFR and clear sky conditions while
SLK, EFK, MPV, and RUT remain socked in low clouds with low MVFR
to IFR ceilings 300-1100 feet above ground level, and RUT even
has continued rain lower vis to 2-4 miles. Model guidance
differs greatly over the next few hours in regards to the speed
at which IFR conditions depart the terminals. Ceilings are
lifting at MPV and should be MVFR and up from here on out, but
elsewhere conditions are staying about the same as of 2345Z.
It`s hard to say exactly when low clouds will erode at SLK and
EFK, and there is the potential for fog to develop quickly there
after skies clear. All in all, thinking we will be rid of IFR
by 06Z-09Z Wednesday as a frontal boundary sweeps through to mix
up the atmosphere, except at RUT, which may hold onto its IFR
ceilings until about 12Z Wednesday with a later frontal passage
there. Winds currently light and variable with a slight
northwesterly component (except at MSS with a southwesterly wind
instead) will increase over the next 9-12 hours to become
definitely northwesterly 5-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots by
12Z-18Z Wednesday and onward.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Storm
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