570
FXUS61 KBTV 130723
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
323 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 257 AM EDT Monday...

Gusts were increased this morning in the northern St Lawrence
Valley and across the northern flanks of the Adirondacks down
through the Highway 11 corridor of northern New York. This
resulted in the issuance of Wind Advisory that is in effect just
prior to sunrise continuing through early afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 257 AM EDT Monday...

1. Gusty winds increase this morning as rain tapers down with
gusts up to 50 mph possible for portions of northern New York
and around 40 mph for the Champlain Valley.

2. Rain returns Tuesday and Wednesday along with some
thunderstorm chances across the Northeast. A few storms may be
strong Tuesday.

3.  Warm and unsettled weather to continue late next week into
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 257 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A broad 40-60kt low level jet is currently moving
across the region with widespread rainfall ongoing as a warm
front moves through.Gusts across the region are generally 20 to
30 mph with rainfall tamping down wind speeds. Just prior to
sunrise, rain is expected to taper off allowing for stronger
winds aloft to be less impeded resulting in an increase in gusty
conditions. The expectation is that gusts of 40-50 mph will
occur along the northern flanks of the Adirondacks down to and
across the Highway 11 corridor as southwest flow channels down
the St Lawrence Valley as well. There could be a brief period of
gusts to around 45 mph in the northern Champlain Valley as well,
but the strongest portion of the jet seems to be displaced just
a bit northwest and stability will be working against surfacing
of winds aloft. Cold lake waters coupled with warm air advection
may be enough to keep strongest winds from surfacing.
Temperatures warm well above average today with many locations
in the 60s. Another wave of showers will accompany the system`s
cold front, but the overall longwave pattern will be lifting
limiting resulting in a weak thermal transition as flow rapidly
shifts southwesterly again late tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The warming trend continues Tuesday and Wednesday
with a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the region. This
boundary will be the focal point for showers/convection as
trough ride along it. The next trough arrives Tuesday afternoon
with a decent, narrow low level jet associated with it. The
combination of temperatures near 70 degrees, ample low level
moisture, and steepening lapse rates aloft will support isolated
to scattered thunderstorms and more rain. Given the 45-55kt
winds in the lljet resulting in around 40+kts of shear, CAPE
500-1000J/kg, and well defined boundary, some thunderstorms
could be strong capable of damaging winds and/or producing some
hail. The SPC has use currently in a marginal (5% chance) region
for severe storms. The quasi-stationary boundary is expected to
linger through Wednesday with another trough moving through.
More thunderstorms are possible with best shear/CAPE more
directed towards southern Vermont. This setup does support
localized heavy rainfall, but details will become clearer over
the next 24 hours.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A warm and fairly active weather pattern is expected to
continue throughout this week into the weekend. Upper level ridging
will remain situated across the southeastern US, with several
shortwaves moving across the region, leading to periods of rain
showers and possible rumbles of thunder. Temperatures this week will
continue to be warm, with daytime highs climbing into the upper 60s
and 70s. In comparison, average high temperatures of this time of
year are generally in the low to upper 50s.The upper level ridge
will begin to build northward early in the weekend and allow for
even warmer temperatures and moisture to advect northward, with
Saturday currently looking to be the warmest day. A cold front looks
to traverse the region later in the weekend, ushering in a cooler
and more seasonable air mass, although there is still a lot of
uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this feature.
Despite the fairly active period of weather, no significant weather
is expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions prevail across terminals
as rain showers continue to exit the region, although a few
occasional periods of MVFR have been observed within showers due
to brief periods of reduced visibilities. Showers will continue
to exit the region over the next few hours, with a period of
drier conditions towards morning before another batch of showers
arrive tomorrow afternoon. While VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the first half of the forecast period, ceilings
are expected to lower towards 21Z or so, bringing more
widespread MVFR conditions. Southerly winds will continue to
increase towards the morning, with gusts in excess of 25 knots
possible at all terminals. Winds will remain gusty through the
majority of the forecast period, but the strongest winds are
generally expected between 10Z and 18Z. Widespread LLWS is
expected at all terminals, especially this morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NYZ026-027-030-031-034.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV