332
FXUS61 KBTV 082351
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
751 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Passing showers are expected this evening, especially across
the Champlain Valley. Sharply colder air is expected,
particularly Thursday afternoon into Friday morning where a few
daily record lows may be tied or broken. Conditions will
gradually warm up again over the weekend. The next work week
will begin with increasing clouds, but whether or not we receive
widespread rain will depend on how far north a coastal system
tracks. Stay tuned for updates on whether or not we will receive
more beneficial rain and perhaps some breezy east winds early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 727 PM EDT Wednesday...Updated forecast to reflect
current radar trends, only slight changes made. Previous
discussion follows.
A subtle low-level trough is shifting south. At the southwest
corner, it has interacted with unstable lake conditions over
Lake Ontario to produce a meso-low. It`s pretty cool on
satellite, and you should check it out. This trough will bring
showers and a reinforcing push of cold air. We`re starting to
see activity cross the St. Lawrence River. Some convergence over
Lake Champlain and lake instability of our own should allow
activity to blossom as it reaches the Champlain Valley with more
isolated coverage elsewhere. Temperatures in the mid 50s to
lower 60s will becomes mid 20s to mid 30s behind cold advection.
The challenging aspect of this is frost potential. We will have
the temperatures for it, but if we maintain winds, then frost
will not form. At the very least, tender plants and outdoor
pipes may not like the freezing conditions. Just in case, frost
advisories and freeze warnings are in effect. If there are
lingering showers associated with the trough overnight, a few
flakes of snow are not impossible at summit level.
Thursday will be rather chilly with the cold air mass overhead.
Any lingering clouds will scatter out as steady 5 to 15 mph
northwesterly flow continues. High temperatures may fail to
climb over 50 in parts of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom,
and the broader valleys will reach at least the mid 50s. Strong
surface high pressure will build, and this will set the stage
for efficient radiational cooling. Frost/freeze will be a slam
dunk. Excepting areas surrounding Lake Champlain, everyone
should fall below freezing, and KSLK should reach the teens. A
few sites may approach daily record lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 148 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will move away
Friday, which will allow temperatures to get closer to normal
again with mid 50s to lower 60s. Under mostly sunny skies,
Friday will typify a pleasant October day. Temperatures will
become cool again Friday night into Saturday morning. Some
frost/freeze is likely again. The broad valleys will maintain a
light south wind keeping temperatures in the lower 40s, but
sheltered bowls within the Adirondacks and east of the Green
mountains will likely take another dive well below freezing.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 148 PM EDT Wednesday...The only noteworthy weather going
on this period is conditional on the track of an expected
Nor`Easter to our south over the weekend. Trends in the data
continue to show a slight increase in probability of some
impacts, most notably locally strong easterly winds in the
southern/central Greens, late Sunday into Monday in Vermont and
northern New York. Probabilities of wind gusts reaching 40 MPH
Sunday night off of the ENS in southeastern Windsor County are
currently above 30%, and even the grand ensemble mean 850
millibar winds are about 30 knots despite large spread in storm
tracks. Taking a look at the latest ensemble guidance, low
tracks show quite a bit of spread, although they tend to be
clustered south of the area consistent with higher PoPs (peaking
near 30%) in southern portions of Vermont, tapering off to
15-20% in our northern counties. Otherwise, large scale ridging
and dry weather is expected into early next week with near to
above normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions through the period
with much drier air entering the airspace. Clouds will scatter
effectively with mainly SKC by 06Z with strong northwesterly
flow, resulting in gusts overnight remaining in the 15-25 knot
range briefly before mixing decreases. Following sunrise, gusts
will be most favored at RUT/EFK/MPV as high pressure building in
from the west leads to decreasing gradients with time. No fog
is expected due to brisk winds.
Outlook... afternoon and
Thursday Night: VFR. Areas frost.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Columbus Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds over Lake Champlain are currently about 10 to 20 knots
sustained. There is an occasional gust or observed wind speed
approaching 25 knots. North winds funneling through the valley
are expected to continue, with low level flow increasing this
afternoon again. Faster winds are thus expected by this
afternoon and evening. The strongest winds will be from the
broad waters down to the southern waters of Lake Champlain at 20
to 30 knots. Waves will build from 2 to 4 feet up to 3 to 5
feet over southern waters in the vicinity of Diamond Island.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Strong radiational cooling is expected Thursday night into
Friday morning. The follow will approach daily records.
Record Low Temperatures:
October 10:
KMPV: 24/1986 (Forecast value: 26)
KSLK: 18/1934 (Forecast value: 17)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
VTZ006-008-010-011-019-020.
Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
VTZ002-005-006-008>011-016>021.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
VTZ016>018.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
NYZ026-027-087.
Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
NYZ026>028-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff/Neiles
MARINE...BTV
CLIMATE...BTV
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